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      The Hole in the Center of American Politics

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      Republican politicians who don’t support Donald Trump have made starkly different choices over the last five years.Some, like Senator Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, have tempered their criticism of the 45th president — opposing him at times, while accommodating him at others in service of their partisan objectives.A smaller coterie of others, like Representative Liz Cheney of Wyoming, have opposed Trump vigorously — in her case, voting to impeach him and helping lead the House investigation into his conduct on Jan. 6, 2021. On Thursday evening, Cheney will again take center stage as the Jan. 6 panel holds what is expected to be its final prime-time hearing of July.As Peter Baker writes, Cheney and her allies are betting that history’s judgment will eventually vindicate their choices, while insisting that her motives are not political.“I believe this is the most important thing I’ve ever done professionally,” Cheney told Baker in an interview, “and maybe the most important thing I ever do.”Thus far, however, the accommodationists have carried the day. McConnell worked closely with the Trump White House to stock the federal judiciary with more than 200 conservative judges, realizing a decades-long project that culminated with the hard-right transformation of the Supreme Court and the reversal of Roe v. Wade.Republicans are also poised to retake the House in November, and possibly the Senate, even though the official organs of the party have rallied behind Trump and, in the case of the Republican National Committee, helped pay his considerable legal bills.Is the center still vital?Still, Trump’s consolidation of the base of the Republican Party — the MAGA die-hards who wouldn’t blanch if he shot someone on Fifth Avenue, proverbially speaking — has left a vacuum at the center of American politics that both parties have jostled to fill.Democrats seized the middle in the 2018 midterms, retaking the House by focusing on kitchen-table issues like health care, while setting themselves up to win full control of Congress two years later. Republicans have countered this year by seizing on inflation and various cultural issues in an attempt to portray Democrats as out of the mainstream.One reason behind all this political volatility: College-educated suburban voters have bounced around from election to election, making that bloc a kind of no-man’s land between two entrenched camps.Vacuums like this always attract political entrepreneurs, and there has been a flourishing of activity aimed at these voters. On Politics has covered a lot of that new energy over the past few months, from new parties popping up to megadonor-backed independent ballot initiatives to cash-flush super PACs mucking around in Republican primaries.In previous years, groups with names like “No Labels” and “Third Way” have claimed the mantle of political centrism. But partisan voters have generally scoffed at those efforts, suspecting them of being Trojan horses for corporate donors. Other centrist initiatives, like the anti-communist, pro-labor group Americans for Democratic Action, faded in influence as their historical moment passed.David Greenberg, a historian of American politics at Rutgers University, said there was a “huge number of people who are disaffected from where the Democratic Party seems to be going,” along with the exhaustively documented and better organized never-Trump Republicans.But he noted that structural impediments like the Electoral College had made it difficult for third parties and other groups to establish themselves, even when voters seem sympathetic to their arguments.An illustration for the cover of Harper’s Weekly in 1912 portrayed Theodore Roosevelt, who ran for president under the banner of the “Bull Moose Party.”Getty ImagesOn occasion, charismatic figures like Theodore Roosevelt, who ran for president in 1912 under the banner of the “Bull Moose Party,” have tried to galvanize the middle of the electorate and run against both poles. More often, though, attempts to break Democrats’ and Republicans’ chokehold on the system have foundered owing to a lack of strong leaders.Greenberg marveled at the irony, too, that so many Americans now feel that the two major parties have been driven to appeal only to their respective bases.“If you really go back historically, it was thought that our two-party system itself was a bulwark against extremism,” he said — as opposed to multiparty systems in places like Weimar Germany that allowed radical groups to assume power without ever commanding a majority of voters.A Missouri compromiseOne of the more interesting centrist-y experiments out there is happening in Missouri, where a former Republican senator, John Danforth, is backing an independent candidate for Senate, John Wood. A former Danforth aide, Wood was most recently a prosecutor on the Jan. 6 panel.In an interview, Danforth said his goal was to provide an alternative to two major political parties that, in his view, have each gone off course in their own way.“The problem is not just in Trump or the Republican Party,” Danforth said, though he said he was disturbed that Republicans were attacking the legitimacy of the 2020 presidential election and of court cases ratifying the results.“But on the other hand,” he added, “we have identity politics, we have the cancel culture. We have the whole sort of presentation of America as oppressors and victims. And that’s not healthy, either.”“The whole point of this campaign is: We have to heal the country,” Danforth said.A consummate Republican insider, Danforth grew up in elite circles in St. Louis and attended Princeton University and Yale Law School, where he also picked up a master’s degree in divinity. After a stint in corporate law, he was elected state attorney general, then became a senator at the dawn of the slow Republican takeover of Missouri politics.At a time when politicians tend to find more success by railing against Washington elites, Danforth, 85, is an unapologetic defender of the old ways of doing business. He was especially offended by the storming of the Capitol, an event that led him to break with Senator Josh Hawley, a Missouri politician he mentored and helped usher into office in 2018.Supporting Hawley, Danforth told The St. Louis Post-Dispatch after the freshman lawmaker greeted the Capitol mob with a raised fist on Jan. 6, was “the worst mistake I ever made in my life.”And while Danforth professed optimism about Wood’s chances, which most Missouri political analysts rate as poor, he said he felt compelled to try.“We are not a corrupt system,” he said. “We are not a system that people should attack, either in the Capitol Building or by this take-up-arms view of politics. That’s why I’m doing this. I have to do it. You know, I just feel that I must.”What to readAfter evading the coronavirus for more than two years, President Biden tested positive, the White House announced on Thursday. My colleagues in Washington have more on his condition. Vice President Kamala Harris tested negative.In Opinion, eight columnists for The New York Times explain what they got wrong, and reflect on why they changed their minds.Mallory McMorrow, the state senator in Michigan whose April speech denouncing Republicans’ “groomer” attacks earned her a national following on the left, has become a powerful fund-raiser for her fellow Democrats.— BlakeIs there anything you think we’re missing? Anything you want to see more of? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      Fetterman Hopes to Return to Senate Campaign Trail Soon, He Says in New Interview

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      Lt. Gov. John Fetterman of Pennsylvania, the Democratic Senate nominee who has been off the campaign trail for more than two months after having a stroke in mid-May, told his hometown newspaper this week that he hopes to return to in-person campaigning “very soon” even as he acknowledged some persisting health effects.“I would never be in this if we were not absolutely, 100 percent able to run fully and to win — and we believe that we are,” Mr. Fetterman told The Pittsburgh Post-Gazette on Wednesday, his first interview since falling ill.Mr. Fetterman ​​had a stroke days before the Democratic primary in May and had a pacemaker and defibrillator implanted on the day of the primary. At the time, his campaign described the move as a standard procedure that would address “the underlying cause of his stroke, atrial fibrillation.” In early June, his campaign acknowledged that he also had a heart condition called cardiomyopathy, which can lead to heart failure, and his doctor said he had appeared to have left other heart issues untreated for years.Mr. Fetterman said he “almost died” and vowed to focus on his recovery before returning to the trail.Since then, his campaign has kept up an aggressive and attention-grabbing social media and television presence, painting his Republican opponent, Mehmet Oz, as more at home in New Jersey than Pennsylvania. But the public has seen little from Mr. Fetterman, save for the occasional brief video.In the Post-Gazette interview, which was conducted by video — and Mr. Fetterman used closed captioning to ensure he did not miss words, the paper said — the candidate said he was walking four to five miles a day, participating in campaign strategy sessions and is now increasingly attending fund-raisers, with several scheduled for this week. He greeted volunteers in person recently, and he also said he was working with a speech therapist.“I might miss a word every now and then in a conversation, or I might slur two words. Even then, I think that’s infrequent,” Mr. Fetterman told the paper. “So I feel like we are ready to run.”He stressed that “physically, I have no limits,” though he also acknowledged that “my hearing is still a little bit not perfect.”Several people who attended a virtual fund-raiser with Mr. Fetterman recently said they were encouraged to see that he seemed to be improving, but also said that he did not sound quite like he did before the stroke — as Mr. Fetterman has implicitly acknowledged.“We saw a candidate whom we all support but who was still recovering,” said Phyllis Snyder, a board member of J Street, the liberal Israel-focused organization. J Street Pennsylvania and the organization’s political arm were listed as hosting the fund-raiser. “We hope that that will continue. But he was very engaged.”She added that Mr. Fetterman typically “speaks what’s on his mind. I’d say he was just a little more measured and careful.”Other attendees said it was occasionally evident when he was reaching for a word.“I don’t think he’s totally back yet,” said Ed Feinstein, a lawyer in Pittsburgh who also attended the event. “But he was animated, and he answered questions.”“He seemed to have energy,” he added, “which I’d been worried about.”Indeed, plenty of Pennsylvania Democrats have privately been anxious about when Mr. Fetterman will return to making public appearances. He has led a number of public polls over Dr. Oz, who faces challenges with his own base. But Pennsylvania is a highly competitive state, and may represent Democrats’ best chance to pick up a seat.Given the stakes of the election and the intense nature of running a statewide contest, Mr. Feinstein said that “I came away encouraged. But I’m still concerned.”“A lot of his appeal is when you see him,” he continued. “He needs to get out there and talk to people in small and larger groups. And that’s grueling, there’s no question about it.”In a statement, Mr. Fetterman’s spokesman, Joe Calvello, said Mr. Fetterman was “doing incredibly well for a guy who had a stroke two months ago and is well on his way to a full recovery.”Noting Mr. Fetterman’s own assessment of his health, he continued, “he will occasionally miss a word or slur a word now and then. This is all part of the recovery process.”And certainly, he is not the first politician to suffer a stroke or heart problems. Former Vice President Dick Cheney had a defibrillator implanted in 2001. He finished two terms in the White House, including a re-election battle in 2004.In a sign of accelerating activity, Mr. Fetterman is set to attend three in-person fund-raisers in Philadelphia on Thursday, Mr. Calvello confirmed. More

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      Dan Cox, a Trump Loyalist, Wins Maryland G.O.P. Primary for Governor

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      Republican voters in Maryland on Tuesday nominated for governor Dan Cox, a state legislator who was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump and who wrote on Twitter during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the Capitol that Vice President Mike Pence was a “traitor.” The Associated Press called the race late Tuesday. Mr. Cox defeated Kelly Schulz, a former cabinet secretary under Gov. Larry Hogan, an ambitious term-limited governor who has sought to present himself as a potential alternative to Mr. Trump in 2024. But Mr. Hogan’s inability to push through his political protégé in his home state will put a significant damper on his chance of galvanizing a national movement in the party against Mr. Trump. Mr. Cox faces a steep general-election challenge in a state Joseph R. Biden Jr. won by more than 30 percentage points. Republicans like Mr. Hogan have done well in Maryland by appealing to independents and moderate Democratic voters worried about Democratic dominance of the General Assembly; Mr. Cox has predicated his campaign on a fealty to Mr. Trump and his far-right base. In remarks to supporters in Annapolis before the race was called on Tuesday night, Ms. Schulz expressed regret about Republican voters’ loyalty to Mr. Trump and lamented that the G.O.P. has strayed from its historical roots. “My Republican Party is the party of Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, Ronald Reagan and John McCain,” she said. “And that is exactly the party that I will continue to fight for.”Ms. Schulz had predicted Mr. Cox would lose the general election by 30 percentage points to any of the Democrats running. “The Maryland Republican Party got together and committed ritualized mass suicide,” said Doug Mayer, an senior aide to Ms. Schulz. “The only thing that was missing was Jim Jones and cup of Kool-Aid.”Democrats were choosing among a field of nine candidates, the top tier of which included Tom Perez, a former Democratic National Committee chairman and labor secretary; Peter Franchot, the state comptroller, who has been in Maryland politics since 1987; and Wes Moore, a best-selling author and former nonprofit executive who campaigned as a political newcomer. Late Tuesday, Mr. Moore held a healthy lead over Mr. Perez, with Mr. Franchot well behind both, though nearly two-thirds of the Democratic vote still remained to be counted — and very little had been reported in Montgomery County, Mr. Perez’s home base. Mr. Moore built his advantage through his strength in Baltimore City and Prince George’s County, which are home to the state’s largest concentrations of Black voters. He was winning nearly half of the vote in Prince George’s County, a populous Washington suburb, a margin that might be difficult for Mr. Perez to make up. Because Maryland law prohibits the processing and counting of ballots returned by mail and in drop boxes until Thursday, the outcome of the Democratic primary for governor and other close races might not be known for days.As Democrats try to retake a governor’s office that has been held since 2015 by a Republican, Mr. Hogan, their primary contest was defined by stylistic differences rather than ideological ones. Mr. Perez and Mr. Franchot emphasized their long experience in government, while Mr. Moore argued that the party needed new blood. From left, Peter Franchot, Wes Moore and Tom Perez faced off in Maryland’s Democratic primary for governor.The New York Times“You know what you’re going to get with Tom Perez,” Mr. Perez said last week in an interview outside an early-voting site in Silver Spring. “It’s a workhorse, not a show horse. It’s someone with a proven track record of getting stuff done.” In an interview on Tuesday on MSNBC, Mr. Moore dismissed criticism that he had given misleading impressions about his personal history and accomplishments, and said the real risk would be elevating an establishment candidate.“People are not looking for the same ideas from the same people,” he said.Mr. Cox, whose campaign raised little money, was the beneficiary of more than $1.16 million in television advertising from the Democratic Governors Association, which tried to help his primary campaign in hopes that he would be easier to defeat in the general election. Democrats across the country have employed similar strategies to aid far-right Republicans in G.O.P. primaries this year, despite the risk that it could backfire.Dan Cox, a Republican state legislator, was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump.Brian Witte/Associated PressKelly Schulz, a former cabinet secretary for Gov. Larry Hogan, had his backing.Matt Roth for The New York TimesAt least 169,000 Democratic absentee ballots and more than 38,000 Republican ballots had been returned as of Monday, according to the State Board of Elections. Another 204,000 Democratic and 58,000 Republican absentee ballots were mailed to voters and remain outstanding. Ballots postmarked on Tuesday will count if they are received by July 29.Another 116,000 Democrats and 51,000 Republicans voted during the state’s eight days of early in-person balloting, which ended last week.A ballot drop box in Baltimore on Tuesday.Julio Cortez/Associated PressThe turnout was expected to outpace past competitive primaries in Maryland. Four years ago, in another closely contested Democratic primary for governor, 552,000 people voted. Officials involved in the Democratic campaigns expected between 600,000 and 700,000 votes this year in the primary for governor. The Republican turnout picture was murkier. There has not been a meaningful statewide G.O.P. primary in a midterm year since 2014, when Mr. Hogan first ran. That year, 215,000 Republicans voted. In the state’s open contest for attorney general, Republicans were choosing between Michael Anthony Peroutka, who has on several occasions spoken to the League of the South, a group that calls for the states of the former Confederacy to secede again from the United States, and Jim Shalleck, a prosecutor who has served as president of the Montgomery County Board of Elections.In the Democratic primary, Representative Anthony Brown, who served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Martin O’Malley, was facing off against Mr. O’Malley’s wife, Katie Curran O’Malley, who was a judge in Baltimore for two decades.Republicans have not won an election for Maryland attorney general since 1918.In other Maryland races, former Representative Donna Edwards was trying to win back the Prince George’s County-based House seat she gave up to run for the Senate in 2016. Her candidacy is embroiled in a proxy war over Israel policy.Donna Edwards, a former congresswoman, is trying to win back her old seat.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesMs. Edwards is facing Glenn Ivey, a former prosecutor who is backed by a group affiliated with the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesThe United Democracy Project, a political action committee affiliated with the American-Israel Public Affairs Committee, has spent $5.9 million to help Ms. Edwards’s Democratic opponent, Glenn Ivey, a prosecutor. Ms. Edwards, for her part, is backed by J Street, a liberal Jewish organization. And in a House district that stretches from the Washington suburbs across Western Maryland to the West Virginia line, Mr. Trump and Mr. Hogan — frequent critics of each other — endorsed the same candidate, only to see him go down in defeat.That candidate, a 25-year-old conservative journalist, Matthew Foldi, lost to Neil Parrott, a Republican state legislator. Mr. Parrott will face Representative David Trone, a wealthy Democrat, in a rematch of their 2020 contest. More

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      The Midterm Races That Give Democrats Nightmares

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      Professional Democrats have many fears about the 2022 midterm elections that keep them up at night.Chief among them: losing Congress and handing over investigative powers and the ability to set the Washington agenda to Kevin McCarthy and Mitch McConnell. Granting Republicans full control over states where abortion remains contested. Seeing President Biden turned prematurely into a lame duck.Somewhere near the top of that list is the concern that voters will elect Donald Trump’s preferred candidates to the office of secretary of state, a job that in many states plays a critical role in safeguarding the right to vote, while also ensuring the smooth operation and fairness of the electoral system.To put it plainly, the widespread worry on the left is that Trump’s loyalists will guarantee his re-election in 2024 if they take power in 2022. It’s not something either Trump or these candidates labor especially hard to rebut.Secretary of state is not a glamorous gig, generally speaking; it’s primarily an administrative job, and tends to attract little attention from the public and press. That changed significantly in battleground states after the Trump-fueled election chaos in 2020, and now money and attention are pouring into secretary of state races — not least because the former president has made it his mission to elect Republican candidates who back his conspiracy theories.It’s easy to tell what Trump wants: total fealty. It’s often far harder to figure out what voters want.Enter a new poll of five swing states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and Nevada — that was shared with The New York Times in advance of its publication. The survey, which polled 1,400 people who are likely to vote in November, was conducted by David Binder Research on behalf of iVote, a group that backs Democrats in secretary of state races.Interpreting the findings, which focus not on candidates but on voters’ views about what they think is important in a secretary of state, is a tricky business.The poll found that 82 percent of likely voters rated “accurately tabulating votes in elections and certifying results” as an extremely important responsibility. Additionally, 67 percent said they would be much more likely to support a candidate “who will prioritize options for all voters and making sure every vote is counted.”But as is often the case with voters, they are giving us conflicting signals. Fifty-nine percent said they would be much more likely to support a candidate “who says the top priority is to ensure fair elections and make sure that only eligible voters are casting ballots.” That sounds a lot more like what many Republican candidates are saying.In one indication of just how much traction Trump’s claims still hold over the G.O.P. base, 72 percent of voters who picked Trump in 2020 said the election had been stolen from him. That’s about a third of all voters.Key Themes From the 2022 Midterm Elections So FarCard 1 of 5The state of the midterms. More

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      Gov. Hochul Holds Steep Fund-Raising Edge Over G.O.P. Rival Lee Zeldin

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      According to the latest campaign filing numbers, there is little question that Representative Lee Zeldin faces an extreme uphill battle in his effort to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York.Ms. Hochul, a Democrat, has a better than seven to one fund-raising advantage over Mr. Zeldin, a conservative Republican congressman from Long Island, heading into their general election showdown.Ms. Hochul reported $11.7 million in the bank as of mid-July, compared with just $1.57 million for Mr. Zeldin, reports filed late Friday show.But perhaps the starkest example of the governor’s fund-raising advantage — and, perhaps, her confidence of victory in November — was the nearly $1 million that her campaign transferred to the state Democratic Party, more than half of it before she won her primary election in late June.The $950,000 transfer outpaced the little under $900,000 that Mr. Zeldin reported in the latest period (June 14-July 11), about 60 percent from donors who gave in chunks of $5,000.The largest single source of contributions listed on Mr. Zeldin’s financial disclosure report wasn’t from an individual donor, however — it was from unitemized donations, which have no names attached.Campaigns are not required to report the names of donors who give no more than $99. Many campaigns do so anyway; Ms. Hochul, for example, has listed no unitemized donations in reports going back to August of last year.Representative Lee Zeldin accepting the Republican nomination for governor in February. Johnny Milano for The New York TimesMr. Zeldin has taken the opposite tack. In the last year, the congressman has reported at least $897,636 from unitemized donors, representing 10 percent of the total haul for the Zeldin for New York campaign committee during that time, records show. Mr. Zeldin’s campaign did not immediately respond to questions from The New York Times.In the latest report, Mr. Zeldin reported receiving $72,546 from unitemized donors.Ms. Hochul raised over $2 million from mid-June through the beginning of last week, about $1.8 million (86 percent) of which came in chunks of $5,000 or greater. She shattered previous records for a single state reporting period in January, and she has far outpaced her rivals in both parties ever since.Ms. Hochul’s campaign is hoping to raise as much as $70 million for her race at a time when Democrats nationally are facing headwinds because of sky-high inflation and President Biden’s sagging approval ratings. She has already accumulated half that ambitious amount, with about $35 million raised since she was sworn in as governor on Aug. 24 last year, after Andrew M. Cuomo resigned amid allegations that he had sexually harassed multiple women. More

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      Carolyn Maloney Uses Personal Fortune in Primary Against Jerrold Nadler

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      Representative Carolyn Maloney of New York holds a commanding financial advantage over her crosstown Democratic primary opponent, Representative Jerrold Nadler, thanks to a familiar benefactor: herself.She personally lent her campaign $900,000, according to new filings released late Friday. The loan, combined with another $600,000 or so in outside donations in the second quarter, gives Ms. Maloney $2 million in the bank before the Aug. 23 primary, a closely watched and highly abbreviated contest between two long-serving House committee leaders.“There was never a doubt that I would continue to fight for the people in my district,” Ms. Maloney, 76, who is one of the richest members of Congress, said of the race in New York’s 12th Congressional District. “Thus, I decided to use some of my retirement savings to invest in this campaign.”Bob Liff, a spokesman for Ms. Maloney, clarified that the funds had come from her House retirement account.Mr. Nadler, 75, reported $500,000 in contributions, but he did not lend his campaign any money, leaving him with $1.2 million in cash.“I’m the son of a chicken farmer — no fortune over here!” Mr. Nadler wrote on Twitter, gently knocking Ms. Maloney. Julian Gerson, a co-manager of Mr. Nadler’s campaign, added that Mr. Nadler would “have the resources we need to run a campaign that’ll talk to every voter.”A third candidate campaigning on a platform of generational change, Suraj Patel, ended the quarter with about half that amount of cash, filings show.Mr. Patel blasted both his opponents for accepting campaign contributions from corporate donors, a practice he avoids. “The 60 years of incumbency in this race are desperate to hold onto their seats,” he said.Ms. Maloney’s loan came in late May, after New York’s courts had invalidated congressional districts drawn by Democrats in Albany, and unexpectedly drew replacements that combined her longtime district rooted on the East Side of Manhattan with Mr. Nadler’s on the West Side.The same reshuffling created an outright melee among more than a dozen Democrats in the neighboring 10th District, which stretches from Lower Manhattan into Brooklyn.Friday’s filings showed that Representative Mondaire Jones had extended a commanding fund-raising lead with $2.8 million in cash on hand. Mr. Jones, who jumped from the suburban Westchester County district he currently represents to the new 10th District to avoid a messy party primary with a fellow incumbent, entered the race with a significant head start. But he will likely need every penny in order to introduce himself to unfamiliar voters and overcome accusations of carpetbagging.Other candidates were also assembling sizable campaign war chests.Daniel Goldman, a former federal prosecutor who worked on the first impeachment of former President Donald J. Trump, quickly raised $1.2 million and ended the quarter with more than $1 million in cash. Bill de Blasio, the former New York City mayor, raised over $500,000; Carlina Rivera, a Manhattan city councilwoman, collected just over $400,000 in contributions; and Yuh-Line Niou, an assemblywoman from Chinatown, reported $240,000 in donations.Mr. de Blasio’s haul included substantial contributions from New York City’s real estate industry and several of his former mayoral appointees, including $1,000 from Dean Fuleihan, Mr. de Blasio’s deputy mayor, and $500 from Steven Banks, the head of social services under Mr. de Blasio. More

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      Sometimes the Earth Makes the Rest of the Universe Look Very Good

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      Gail Collins: Bret, we should talk a bit about the passing of Donald Trump’s first wife, Ivana. Any first thoughts?Bret Stephens: A sad moment. She represented immigrant striving, something her former husband should have learned to appreciate — but didn’t. Did you know her?Gail: No, my interactions with The Donald, as Ivana called him, didn’t begin until around the time of their divorce, when I was covering city government and he was trying to squeeze some deals out of the Council.However, I was working then for New York tabloids and I have very vivid memories of the huge headlines on the front page — we called it “the wood” — when he was wrecking their marriage by cavorting with Marla Maples.Bret: Ah, yes: “‘Best Sex I’ve Ever Had,’” if I recall the New York Post headline correctly. If Edith Wharton were alive today she’d write a novel about the period called “The Age of Relative Innocence.”Gail: I know I don’t need to tell you this, but nobody was encouraging all that over-the-top coverage of his sexual adventures more than the man himself. Legend had it that when he finally got Ivana to step away, he asked his press people whether he could get back on the wood if he dumped Marla, too.Bret: Do you think John Bolton ever says to himself, “I’m the Marla Maples of Donald Trump’s national security advisers”? No wonder the coups Bolton suggests he planned didn’t come off.But speaking of getting back on the wood, does some Machiavellian part of you sorta hope Trump runs for president again?Gail: Well, the totally self-regarding part is certainly rooting for it. If anyone else gets the nomination it’s possible we’d have a modestly normal campaign, which would be good for the country but very bad for my career of making fun of politicians.Bret: If anyone other than Trump wins the G.O.P. nomination, that person will likely be the next president.Gail: That’s certainly an underlying Democratic concern but we have to rise above it. Otherwise it’s like those jerks who try to help their candidate by underwriting the campaigns of the most terrible, hate-mongering person on the other side just to improve their chances.Can’t think of a possible Republican nominee that’d actually be worse, but that’s really your department. Any way we’d look back with nostalgia on the Trump era?Bret: Just imagine how nostalgic we’ll be under President Josh Hawley. Even now, there are plenty of middle-of-the-road voters who are looking back on the Trump years and saying to themselves, “Sure, it was crazy-town in the White House, but inflation was low, the stock market kept rising, gas was affordable, and Russia wasn’t invading its neighbors.” If Joe Biden doesn’t turn his administration’s fortunes around, Democrats are going to be facing a tsunami of voter fury.My advice to the president is to triangulate, triangulate, triangulate. What’s yours?Gail: I dunno — kidnap Joe Manchin, lock him in a tower and make it clear he’ll be forced to watch reruns of “My Mother the Car,” until he comes around on Biden’s priorities?Bret: I think we need an alternative plan, Gail ….Gail: Manchin is really sitting on the Democratic agenda, particularly when it comes to global warming. I know he’s in a very tight political situation in West Virginia, but he’s going to go down in history as the guy who helped make the planet a much worse place for future generations.Bret: As the great Tip O’Neill famously said, “All politics is local.” That sentence pretty much sums up everything Democrats got wrong in Congress over the last 18 months.Gail: As it stands, it looks like Biden’s best hope is to get passage of what some are now calling Build Back Manchin — which so far seems to be some modest reforms on drug pricing.Breaks my heart, but am I right in suspecting it makes you do a happy dance?Bret: Well, I’m glad Manchin stood his ground on spending, because inflation would be even worse today if he hadn’t. Now it’s time for Biden to tack right on policy issues like fracking, border security and crime; go hard on Republicans on guns and abortion; then come up with a plan to help Ukraine defeat the Russian army quickly, before Moscow can use energy to blackmail Western Europe in the dead of winter.Maybe Biden can start by having Bill Clinton stop by the White House to offer some pointers on regaining the trust of the moderate center. Or is there someone else he should be talking to?Gail: Well, um, he should talk with someone who disagrees with you about fracking.One critical problem for the economy is the shortage of workers, and that’s in part because many mothers can’t find any safe or affordable place to leave their kids while they’re working. If Biden wants to change the subject, he should get back to high-quality, affordable early childhood education.I know that’s not the direction you were hoping to travel, but couldn’t resist.Bret: If Biden proposed something modest but attainable in that vein he might score a legislative victory, just as he did with the bipartisan gun bill that Senators Chris Murphy and John Cornyn hashed out last month. We also need more immigrants to make up for the labor shortfalls. How about raising the annual refugee cap to 750,000 from the current 125,000 while doing more to curb illegal immigration? That would combine humanity and good economic sense with political savvy.Gail: Sounds good in theory but I’d want to know a lot more about how that curbing of illegal immigration was going to work. No question that we need an efficient border operation, a goal that has eluded every recent president. But nothing good is accomplished by spreading terror in immigrant communities around the country.Bret: Agree. And by opening the door much wider to legal migration, we also reduce incentives for illegal and sometimes fatal border crossings, which in turn eases the pressure on border security.Gail: Speaking of immigration … there’s an upcoming Republican Senate primary in Arizona where that seems to be a big issue. One of the leading Republican candidates, Blake Masters, once called for “unrestricted immigration” — back when he was a youthful libertarian.Bret: He should have stopped there.Gail: And also a guy who in his youth derided American entry into World War I.Bret: Or even there.Gail: And II.Bret: Oh dear.Gail: He’s certainly a walking reminder of how important it is to remind young people on a daily basis that anything you put on the web can come back to haunt you. But here in 2022 he’s the candidate who said the problem of gun violence was all about “Black people, frankly.” And I hardly need mention he’s been endorsed by Donald Trump.This is for the seat that currently belongs to a Democrat, Mark Kelly. So my two questions are: How would you want Arizona to go if it’s a Masters-Kelly contest, and any other nightmare party primaries you see on the horizon?Bret: I wish Arizona still produced intelligent and independent-minded Republicans in the mold of Barry Goldwater, Jon Kyl, John McCain and Jeff Flake. Now it’s just a freak show. I’ll root for Kelly, but it’s a shame that as a senator the formerly cool astronaut has been such a space cadet.Gail: I love the begrudging way you think.Bret: The other race I’m looking at is the one in Wyoming, where Liz Cheney is hoping enough Democrats and independents will vote in the Republican primary to help her defeat her primary rival. I hope she does. She represents my idea of what political courage looks like.Gail: Agreed, yet also very interested to see how her more liberal Democratic constituents work out this problem: Do you reward an elected official for showing extreme courage while voting against practically everything you’d want Congress to do?Bret: Before we go, Gail, I neglected to mention the one government agency whose budget I would immediately double: NASA. I spent some of last week geeking out over the images that the Webb telescope has been beaming back to earth from its cosmic perch. It’s a good reminder that this country is still capable of doing good and mighty things.Gail: Such a jaw-dropping reminder that as self-obsessed as we tend to get, we’re hardly the center of the universe.Bret: Very true. And you’ve reminded me of a few lines of verse from my all-time favorite poet, Gerard Manley Hopkins, the only writer who has ever tempted me to truly believe in God:Look at the stars! look, look up at the skies!O look at all the fire-folk sitting in the air!The bright boroughs, the circle-citadels there!Down in dim woods the diamond delves! the elves’-eyes!The grey lawns cold where gold, where quickgold lies!The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      in Elections

      Los votantes jóvenes están hartos de sus líderes (mucho) mayores

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      Representados por políticos que a menudo les triplican la edad, muchos votantes menores de 30 años en Estados Unidos están ansiosos de rostros e ideas nuevos.Alexandra Chadwick fue a las urnas en 2020 con un solo objetivo: sacar a Donald Trump. A sus 22 años, en su primera experiencia como votante, vio a Joe Biden más como salvaguardia que como una figura política inspiradora, era alguien capaz de contener las acciones que amenazaban el acceso al aborto, el control de armas y la política climática.Dos años después, la Corte Suprema ha erosionado las protecciones federales en estos tres temas, y la conclusión de Chadwick es que tanto Biden como otros líderes demócratas no tienen la imaginación y la voluntad necesarias para contratacar. El problema es la brecha generacional, que no le pareció tan importante en otro momento, pero que ahora le parece abismal.“¿Cómo puedes dirigir correctamente a tu país si tu mente está atascada en una época que ya pasó hace 50, 60 o 70 años?”, cuestionó Chadwick, quien trabaja en servicios al cliente en Rialto, California, en referencia al gran número de líderes septuagenarios que dirigen su partido. “No es lo mismo, y las personas no son iguales, así que tus ideas antiguas ya no van a funcionar”.Si bien hay electores de todas las edades que cuestionan el liderazgo político del país, el descontento de pocos grupos se percibe tan unánime como el de los jóvenes.Una encuesta de The New York Times y Siena College reveló que solo el uno por ciento de los jóvenes entre 18 y 29 años aprueba decididamente la manera en que Biden hace su trabajo. No solo eso, sino que el 94 por ciento de los demócratas menores de 30 años afirman que quieren que otro candidato se postule dentro de dos años. De todos los grupos de edad, una mayor proporción de electores jóvenes dijo que no votarían por Biden ni por Trump en el supuesto de que se enfrentaran de nuevo en 2024.Los números son una advertencia clara para los demócratas, que batallan para evitar una paliza en las elecciones intermedias de noviembre. Los jóvenes, que desde hace tiempo han sido la facción menos segura de la coalición del partido, marcharon a favor del control de armas, se congregaron para expresarse en contra de Trump y ayudaron a impulsar una oleada demócrata en las elecciones intermedias de 2018. Esos jóvenes todavía apoyan a los demócratas en temas que no dejan de ganar importancia.Pero cuatro años después, muchos se perciben indiferentes y desanimados; solo un 32 por ciento de ellos afirma que está “casi seguro” de votar en noviembre, según la encuesta. Casi la mitad cree que su voto no hizo ninguna diferencia.Algunas entrevistas con estos jóvenes revelan que las tensiones generacionales les causan frustración. Son electores que han alcanzado la edad adulta en un ambiente de enfrentamientos raciales, conflictos políticos, inflación elevada y una pandemia, y han tenido que recurrir a políticos que les triplican la edad en busca de ayuda.Con frecuencia, esos dirigentes mayores hablan de la defensa de las instituciones y la recuperación de normas, mientras que los electores jóvenes dicen que están más interesados en los resultados. Muchos comentaron que desean más cambios grandes, como un tercer partido viable y una nueva generación de líderes jóvenes. Señalan que ansían la implementación de medidas innovadoras para resolver los problemas que heredarán, en vez de regresar a lo que funcionó en el pasado.“Los miembros del Congreso, todos ellos, sin duda, han atravesado épocas muy traumáticas en su vida y de caos en el país”, explicó John Della Volpe, quien estudia las opiniones de los jóvenes en su calidad de director de encuestas en el Instituto de Política de la Escuela Harvard Kennedy. “Pero los miembros del Congreso también han visto a Estados Unidos en sus mejores épocas. En esos momentos nos unimos. Eso es algo que la generación Z no ha tenido”.A sus 79 años, Biden es el presidente más viejo en la historia de Estados Unidos y uno de los muchos dirigentes del Partido Demócrata que rondan los ochenta años o ya son octogenarios. Nancy Pelosi, presidenta de la Cámara de Representantes, tiene 82 años. El líder de la mayoría en la Cámara de Representantes, Steny Hoyer, tiene 83 años. Chuck Schumer, el líder de la mayoría en el Senado, de 71 años, es el bebé de la camada. Trump tiene 76 años.En una repetición de las elecciones de 2020, Biden obtendría una delantera del 38 al 30 por ciento entre los jóvenes, pero el 22 por ciento de los electores de entre 18 y 29 años afirmaron que no votarían si esos candidatos fueran las opciones, por mucho la mayor proporción de entre los diferentes rangos de edad.Para Ellis McCarthy, “ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”.Brian Kaiser para The New York TimesEsos votantes incluyen a Ellis McCarthy, de 24 años, que tiene algunos trabajos de medio tiempo en Bellevue, Kentucky. McCarthy dice que anhela un gobierno que sea “completamente nuevo”.El padre de McCarthy, electricista y miembro del sindicato que enseña en una escuela técnica local, conoció a Biden el verano pasado cuando el presidente visitó las instalaciones de capacitación. Los dos hombres hablaron sobre su sindicato y su trabajo, dos cosas que amaba. No mucho después, su padre se enfermó, fue hospitalizado y, después de su recuperación, quedó amargado por el sistema de atención médica y lo que su familia considera como el fracaso de las estrategias de Biden para arreglarlo.“Parece que ya sea Biden o Trump, nadie trata de ser una voz para las personas como yo”, dijo. “Los trabajadores se sienten abandonados”.Denange Sanchez, estudiante de 20 años en el Eastern Florida State College, de Palm Bay, Florida, opina que Biden es “insulso” en sus promesas.La madre de Sanchez es propietaria de una empresa de servicios domésticos de limpieza y se encarga de la mayor parte del trabajo de limpieza, con ayuda de Denange en lo posible. Toda su familia (incluida su madre, que padece una enfermedad del corazón y tiene un marcapasos) ha batallado con brotes de COVID-19 sin seguro médico. Incluso cuando estaba enferma, su madre estaba despierta a todas horas preparando remedios caseros, relató Sanchez.“Todos decían que íbamos a acabar con este virus. Biden hizo esas promesas. Pero ahora ya nadie toma en serio la pandemia, aunque todavía nos está rondando. Es de lo más frustrante”, se quejó. Sanchez, que estudia medicina, también incluyó la eliminación de la deuda estudiantil en la lista de promesas que Biden no ha cumplido.Los políticos y encuestadores demócratas son muy conscientes del problema que enfrentan con los votantes jóvenes, pero insisten en que hay tiempo para involucrarlos en los temas que les interesan. Las recientes decisiones de la Corte Suprema que eliminan el derecho constitucional al aborto, limitan la capacidad de los estados para controlar el porte de armas de fuego y recortan los poderes regulatorios del gobierno federal sobre las emisiones que contribuyen al calentamiento climático recién ahora están comenzando a arraigarse en la conciencia de los votantes, dijo Jefrey Pollock, encuestador de los demócratas de la Cámara de Representantes.“Ya no estamos hablando de una teoría; estamos hablando de una Corte Suprema que está haciendo retroceder al país 50 años o más”, dijo. “Si no podemos transmitir ese mensaje, entonces deberíamos avergonzarnos”.En contraste con los electores maduros, que en general identificaron a la economía como uno de sus principales intereses, para los votantes jóvenes solo es un tema más, relacionado en cierta medida con el aborto, el estado de la democracia estadounidense y las políticas aplicables a las armas.Eso pone en un dilema a los candidatos demócratas de distritos en los que las elecciones serán muy reñidas, muchos de los cuales creen que su mensaje para las elecciones debería concentrarse casi por completo en la economía, pero eso podría costarles el grupo vigorizante de los jóvenes.Tate Sutter dice que está frustrado por la inacción sobre el cambio climático.Rozette Rago para The New York TimesTate Sutter, de 21 años, siente esa total falta de conexión. Originario de Auburn, California, e inscrito en el Middlebury College en Vermont, Sutter relató que cuando vio los fuegos artificiales del Cuatro de Julio sintió escalofríos por todo el cuerpo, pues pronto iniciará la temporada de incendios y el plan enérgico del gobierno federal para combatir el calentamiento global sigue estancado en el Congreso. Contó que no tenía ninguna duda de que podía ver un incendio incipiente en las colinas del sur.“El clima es un tema muy importante en mi perspectiva política”, comentó, consternado porque los demócratas no hablan mucho del tema. “Es muy frustrante”.Sutter dijo que entendía los límites de los poderes de Biden con un Senado dividido. Pero también dijo que entiende el poder de la presidencia y no que Biden lo ejerza de manera efectiva.“Con la edad ganas mucha experiencia y sabiduría y aprendes cómo haces las cosas. Pero, en cuanto a la percepción, parece estar desconectado de la gente de mi generación”, dijo.Después de años de sentir que los políticos no se dirigen a personas como él, Juan Flores, de 23 años, dijo que ha decidido concentrar su atención en iniciativas locales sometidas a votación relacionadas con problemas como la indigencia o la falta de vivienda, pues considera que es más probable que tengan cierto impacto en su vida. Flores cursó estudios de análisis de datos, pero conduce un camión de entregas para Amazon en San José, California. En esa zona, el precio promedio de las casas supera el millón de dólares, por lo que es muy difícil (prácticamente imposible) que los residentes sobrevivan con un solo ingreso.“Me parece que muchos políticos vienen de familias acomodadas”, mencionó. “La mayoría de ellos no comprende en realidad todo lo que vivimos la mayoría de los ciudadanos estadounidenses”.La encuesta Times/Siena College descubrió que el 46 por ciento de los electores jóvenes prefieren que los demócratas controlen el Congreso, mientras que el 28 por ciento quiere que los republicanos lo hagan. Más de uno de cada cuatro jóvenes, el 26 por ciento, no sabe o no quiere decir qué partido prefiere que controle el Congreso.Iván Chávez planea participar en las elecciones de noviembre, pero aún no sabe por cuál candidato votará.Ramsay de Give para The New York TimesIvan Chavez, de 25 años y originario de Bernalillo, Nuevo México, externó que se identifica como independiente en parte porque ninguno de los partidos ha presentado argumentos convincentes para las personas de su edad. Le preocupan los asesinatos masivos, la crisis de salud mental que viven los jóvenes y el cambio climático.Le gustaría que los candidatos del tercer partido recibieran más atención. Planea votar en noviembre, pero no sabe con certeza a quién apoyará.“Creo que los demócratas tienen miedo de los republicanos en este momento, y los republicanos les tienen miedo a los demócratas”, aseveró. “No saben para dónde ir”.Los votantes republicanos jóvenes son los menos propensos a decir que quieren que Trump sea el candidato del partido en 2024, pero Kyle Holcomb, de 23 años y recién graduado de la universidad de Florida, dijo que votaría por él si fuera necesario.“Literalmente, si alguien más que no sea Biden se postulara, me sentiría más cómodo”, dijo. “Simplemente me gusta la idea de tener a alguien en el poder que pueda proyectar su visión y metas de manera efectiva”.Kyle Holcomb se ha enfadado con Donald Trump pero votará por él si se postula.Zack Wittman para The New York TimesLos jóvenes demócratas dijeron que buscaban lo mismo de sus líderes: visión, dinamismo y tal vez un poco de juventud, pero no demasiado. Varios votantes jóvenes mencionaron a la representante Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, una demócrata de Nueva York de 32 años. Chadwick elogió su juventud y disposición para hablar, a menudo en contra de sus colegas mayores en el Congreso, y resumió su atractivo en una palabra: “proximidad”.Michael C. Bender More