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      Republicans Will Regret a Second Trump Term

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      Now is the summer of Republican content.The G.O.P. is confident and unified. Donald Trump has held a consistent and widening lead over President Biden in all the battleground states. Never Trumpers have been exiled, purged or converted. The Supreme Court has eased many of Trump’s legal travails while his felony convictions in New York seem to have inflicted only minimal political damage — if they didn’t actually help him.Best of all for Republicans, a diminished Joe Biden seems determined to stay in the race, leading a dispirited and divided party that thinks of its presumptive nominee as one might think of a colonoscopy: an unpleasant reminder of age. Even if Biden can be cajoled into quitting, his likeliest replacement is Vice President Kamala Harris, whose 37 percent approval rating is just around that of her boss. Do Democrats really think they can run on her non-handling of the border crisis, her reputation for managerial incompetence or her verbal gaffes?In short, Republicans have good reason to think they’ll be back in the White House next January. Only then will the regrets set in.Three in particular: First, Trump won’t slay the left; instead, he will re-energize and radicalize it. Second, Trump will be a down-ballot loser, leading to divided and paralyzed government. Third, Trump’s second-term personnel won’t be like the ones in his first. Instead, he will appoint his Trumpiest people and pursue his Trumpiest instincts. The results won’t be ones old-school Republicans want or expect.Begin with the left.Talk to most conservatives and even a few liberals, and they’ll tell you that Peak Woke — that is, the worst excesses of far-left activism and cancel culture — happened around 2020. In fact, Peak Woke, from the campus witch hunts to “abolish the police” and the “mostly peaceful” protests in cities like Portland, Ore., and Minneapolis that followed George Floyd’s murder, really coincided with the entirety of Trump’s presidency, then abated after Biden’s election.That’s no accident. What used to be called political correctness has been with us for a long time. But it grew to a fever pitch under Trump, most of all because he was precisely the kind of bigoted vulgarian and aspiring strongman that liberals always feared might come to power, and which they felt duty bound to “resist.” With his every tweet, Trump’s presidency felt like a diesel engine blowing black soot in the face of the country. That’s also surely how Trump wanted it, since it delighted his base, goaded his critics and left everyone else in a kind of blind stupor.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Donors Tell Pro-Biden Super PAC Roughly $90 Million in Pledges Is Frozen

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      Some major Democratic donors have told the largest pro-Biden super PAC, Future Forward, that roughly $90 million in pledged donations is now on hold if President Biden remains atop the ticket, according to two people who have been briefed on the conversations.The frozen contributions include multiple eight-figure commitments, according to the two people, who spoke on the condition of anonymity given the sensitivity of the situation. The decision to withhold such enormous sums of money is one of the most concrete examples of the fallout from Mr. Biden’s poor debate performance at the end of June.Future Forward declined to comment on any conversations with donors or the amounts of any pledged money being withheld. A Future Forward adviser would say only that the group expected contributors who had paused donations to return once the current uncertainty about the ticket was resolved.Separately, one donor to the group described being approached multiple times by Future Forward since the debate for a contribution, but said he and his friends had been “holding off.”The two people briefed on the frozen pledges declined to say which individual donors were pulling back promised checks, which were estimated to total around or above $90 million. It was not clear how much of the pledged money was earmarked for Future Forward’s super PAC versus its nonprofit arm, which has also been running advertising in key battleground states.The cash freeze comes as some advisers around Mr. Biden are discussing how to persuade the president to exit the race, and as his campaign has begun to test Vice President Kamala Harris in head-to-head surveys of voters against former President Donald J. Trump. The number of congressional Democrats calling for Mr. Biden to step aside is growing by the day.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Democrats Fear Safe Blue States Turning Purple as Biden Stays the Course

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      Lingering worries about President Biden’s age could make Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia competitive, party operatives believe.As President Biden insists he will stay in the presidential race, Democrats are growing increasingly alarmed that his presence on the ticket is transforming the political map, turning light-blue states into contested battlegrounds.Down-ballot Democrats, local elected officials and party strategists say Minnesota, New Hampshire, New Mexico and Virginia — all of which Mr. Biden won comfortably in 2020 — could be in play in November after his miserable debate performance last month.Some polls in these states suggest a tightening race between Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, with one showing a virtual tie in Virginia, which has not voted for a Republican for president since 2004, and another showing Mr. Trump squeaking ahead in New Hampshire, which has been in the Democratic column since 2000.On Tuesday, the Cook Political Report, a prominent elections forecaster, downgraded New Hampshire and Minnesota from “likely” wins for Mr. Biden to only leaning in his direction. And in a meeting at the White House last week, Gov. Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico told Mr. Biden that she feared he would lose her state, according to two people briefed on her comments.The shakiness in the fringe battleground states is an alarming sign for Mr. Biden’s hopes in must-win contests that were already expected to be close, such as Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. An expanding battleground map could force his campaign to divert resources away from the traditional swing states, where he has been falling further and further behind.But Mr. Biden has given no indication he is going anywhere, telling reporters at a high-profile news conference on Thursday that “I’m determined I’m running” and pushing back on his poor polling numbers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Digs In as Democratic Fears Deepen

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      The president put on a competent showing at his pressure cooker of a news conference, but it remained in doubt if he could stem the bleeding of Democratic support.Days after President Biden said only the “Lord Almighty” could drive him from the race, he laid out a far more earthly scenario at his closely watched news conference on Thursday night: His advisers would have to prove to him that he was headed for certain defeat.But leaning into the microphone and whispering to dramatize his defiance, Mr. Biden made clear that he did not foresee this happening.“No one’s saying that,” he said. “No poll says that.”He seemed to open the door to an alternative, then swiftly shut it. Sure, “other people can beat Trump,” he said, but it would be too hard to “start from scratch.”The president’s first news conference since the debate amounted to a competent presentation, if not a compelling performance. But it remained in doubt whether it was enough to stop the bleeding of Democratic support that has threatened to hemorrhage. Minutes after he left the stage, the drip-drip-drip of Democratic members of Congress calling for him to step aside continued unabated.“I believe I’m the best qualified to govern,” said Mr. Biden, who has for decades pointed to naysayers to fuel his own comeback narratives. “And I think I’m the best qualified to win.”The high-stakes, mostly unscripted hour — Mr. Biden’s longest since the debate that sent his candidacy into a tailspin — came as some of those around him have talked about how to persuade him to drop out, and as his campaign has commissioned a survey to test the strength of Vice President Kamala Harris in a matchup he has insisted will never come to pass.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Biden Says Harris Is Qualified to Be President, but Vows to Remain in Race

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      President Biden said on Thursday that Vice President Kamala Harris was qualified to be president, but pitched himself as the best person to defeat former President Donald J. Trump in November.During a news conference, Mr. Biden defended Ms. Harris’s readiness to take charge amid reports that he feared she could not beat Mr. Trump even as he made clear that he would not step aside. But in his answer to a question about Ms. Harris’s chances of beating Mr. Trump, he confused the two leaders’ names, committing just the sort of verbal misfire that has unnerved Democrats and prompted them to wonder if she should instead be the nominee.“Look, I wouldn’t have picked Vice President Trump to be vice president, did I think she’s not qualified to be president,” Mr. Biden said. “So let’s start there, No. 1. The fact is that the consideration is that I think I’m the most qualified person to run for president. I beat him once, and I will beat him again.”Polls in recent weeks have generally showed that Ms. Harris is just as likely, or possibly more likely, to defeat Mr. Trump, and the former president’s campaign has ramped up attacks on her recently.Following Mr. Biden’s disastrous debate performance two weeks ago, panicked donors, political groups and even allies began to rally around Ms. Harris as a potential placement for him. Ms. Harris has stood behind Mr. Biden’s decision to stay in the race.The Biden campaign has been quietly testing Ms. Harris’s chances against Mr. Trump this week, with some speculation that the results would determine whether Mr. Biden would consider dropping out of the race.Asked whether he would reconsider his decision to stay in the race if his team showed him data that Ms. Harris would fare better in a matchup, Mr. Biden repeatedly said he would not drop out of the race.“No,” he said, “unless they came back and said that there’s no way you could win. No one’s saying that.”When asked about her qualifications, Mr. Biden pointed to Ms. Harris’s work elevating reproductive rights and praised her “ability to handle almost any issue on the board.”“This was a hell of a prosecutor,” Mr. Biden said of Ms. Harris, who was the district attorney of San Francisco and attorney general of California. “She was a first-rate person, and in the Senate she was really good. I wouldn’t have picked her unless I thought she was qualified to be president. From the very beginning. I made no bones about that. She is qualified to be president. That’s why I picked her.” More

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      Democrats React to Biden’s Press Conference Performance

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      President Biden entered Thursday night hoping that a steady performance at a news conference with the national press corps would quell dissension among Democrats, some of whom want him out of the race.But within minutes of his departure from the stage, two more Democratic representatives joined the growing number of party members calling for him to end his re-election campaign against former President Donald J. Trump.“The 2024 election will define the future of American democracy, and we must put forth the strongest candidate possible to confront the threat posed by Trump’s promised MAGA authoritarianism,” Representative Jim Himes, a moderate Democrat from Connecticut and the ranking member of the House Intelligence Committee, said in a statement. “I no longer believe that is Joe Biden.”And Representative Scott Peters of California also argued that Mr. Biden should leave the race, saying, “The stakes are high, and we are on a losing course.”Later in the evening, Representative Eric Sorensen of Illinois joined their ranks, becoming the 18th Democratic member of either the House or the Senate to call for Mr. Biden to step aside.More Democrats may defect on Friday, now that members of Congress no longer have to worry about embarrassing the president during the NATO summit that took place in Washington this week. But other Democrats said Mr. Biden’s deft grasp of policy — and the fact that he answered questions for nearly an hour — was heartening, despite awkward moments like a flub in which he referred to Vice President Kamala Harris as “Vice President Trump.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Strongest Case for Biden Is His Resilience in the Face of the Onslaught

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      Joe Biden is still standing, refusing to bow out — he reiterated that once again in a lengthy and mostly successful news conference on Thursday night. Some may view it as selfish and irresponsible. Some may even see it as dangerous. But I see it as remarkable.Despite sending a clear message — in his recent flurry of interviews and rallies, in his stalwart address this week to members of the NATO alliance and in his letter on Monday to congressional Democrats, in which he assured them that “I wouldn’t be running again if I did not absolutely believe I was the best person to beat Donald Trump in 2024” — there’s still a slow drumbeat from luminaries, donors and elected officials trying to write Biden’s political obituary.The talent agency mogul Ari Emanuel (a brother of Rahm Emanuel, Biden’s ambassador to Japan), recently said Biden “is not the candidate anymore.” In a post on X, the best-selling author Stephen King said that it’s time for Biden “to announce he will not run for re-election.” Abigail Disney, an heiress to the Walt Disney fortune, said, “I intend to stop any contributions to the party unless and until they replace Biden at the top of the ticket.”They seem to believe that they can kill his candidacy, by a thousand cuts or by starving it to death.But none of this sits well with me.First, because Biden is, in fact, his party’s presumptive nominee. He won the primaries. He has the delegates. He got there via an open, organized and democratic process.Forcing him out, against his will, seems to me an invalidation of that process. And the apparent justification for this, that polls, which are highly fluctuant, now indicate that some voters want him replaced, is insufficient; responses to polls are not votes.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      James Carville’s Plan B for a Democratic Nominee

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      Readers discuss his idea for picking an alternative to President Biden and offer suggestions of their own.To the Editor:Re “Biden Won’t Win. Democrats Must Have a Plan. Here’s One,” by James Carville (Opinion guest essay, July 11):Mr. Carville has given us a good option for the Democratic Party presidential selection process, with former Presidents Bill Clinton and Barack Obama selecting eight potential candidates and then hosting four regional “auditions.” A refinement: At the convention in Chicago, winnow the field like the N.C.A.A.’s March Madness championship process.Using the Elite Eight, the Final Four and then the championship game format, in three nights of the convention have votes to lop off first the bottom four, then the bottom two, and then the last two would be voted on. The winner would emerge as a consensus choice; the runner-up could be offered the veep position. Talk about riveting TV!Lamont WiltseeCarmel Valley, Calif.To the Editor:James Carville makes one structural mistake in his piece calling for four town halls around the country. President Biden should be invited to be one of the participants and compete on an even footing with the other candidates. Let Mr. Biden keep running, but make him prove he’s the one.Keith LiggettSilverton, British ColumbiaTo the Editor:James Carville has been a stalwart for Democrats, so it is sad to see him jumping ship just when the best president since Franklin D. Roosevelt needs his support most. His proposed nominee plan is a waste of campaign time better used to hammer away at the defects and danger of a Donald Trump presidency.History shows that voters returned Roosevelt to a fourth term to continue the war effort despite known health issues. The battle to save democracy is on the ballot, and President Biden is the proven commander. So, James, get back in the boat and row in unison.Richard SigalNew YorkTo the Editor:James Carville’s plan for a post-Biden Democratic campaign gave me hope for the first time since the disastrous debate. Those who suggest that Kamala Harris must be President Biden’s replacement ignore her low poll numbers, voters’ unfamiliarity with her and a sense that she hasn’t done anything as vice president. Mr. Carville’s plan would give all of us a chance to get to know her better as well as to explore the broader Democratic bench.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More