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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midterms

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      Republicans and Democrats spend big on ads for US midtermsThe rival parties have outspent the 2020 presidential election on ads addressing abortion, crime and the economy As the US midterm elections loom, Republicans and Democrats have spent almost $10bn (£8.6bn) so far on ads. It’s a staggering figure, one that exceeds even the spending on the 2020 presidential election, and is almost triple the amount spent during the last midterms.Both parties – and their dark money backers – have splashed exorbitant amounts on TV, digital and print advertising, but their focus has been very different.For Democrats, abortion has been a key issue. The party has spent almost 20 times more than it did on abortion-related ads in the 2018 midterms, NPR reported. For Republicans, there have been different messages: that inflation, crime and taxes are out of control.The result has been a whirling atmosphere for the average American, where to turn on the TV is frequently to see the two parties, and their candidates, talking straight past one another about different things.AbortionAfter the conservative-dominated supreme court overturned the federal right to abortion in June, the issue of who should have control over women’s bodies has been front and center in many midterm races.Democrats have run more than 240 ads related to abortion rights, seeking to draw attention to the extreme positions of many Republican candidates. These largely centered the personal stories of women who have had abortions. One of the most powerful ads has run in South Carolina, where Joe Cunningham, a Democrat, is bidding to defeat Henry McMaster, the state’s Republican governor.In the ad, a woman named Fran explains that she was raped by two men when she was 12 years old. She later found out she was pregnant. Fran was able to have an abortion due to Roe v Wade, then recently decided, which legalised abortion in the US.“Roe versus Wade gave me the opportunity to become an educator, a mother and grandmother,” Fran says in the ad.“I did what was best for an 88-pound 12-year-old with no other options. I am a survivor of rape: my body is not yours, and it is not the state’s, it’s mine – yet our governor, Henry McMaster, wants to ban all abortions.”In Pennsylvania, Democrats have repeatedly targeted Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor running as a Republican for the US Senate, over his opposition to abortion, and an ad launched in mid-October features a Pennsylvania doctor describing how, pre-Roe v Wade, he was trained to treat the victims of “back-alley abortions”.“Too often, women died. I thought those days were long behind us. But not so, with Mehmet Oz,” the doctor says.One of the most harrowing ads of the entire election cycle comes from Eric Swalwell, a Democratic congressman for California.It shows a family eating dinner at home when two police officers to arrest the mother for “unlawful termination of a pregnancy”. When her partner attempts to intervene, the officers draw their guns on him, prompting screaming from the couple’s young children as the woman is handcuffed.“Elections have consequences,” a voiceover says. “Stop Republicans from criminalizing abortion everywhere.”Republicans, by contrast, have spent a fraction of the Democrats’ total on abortion ads. When candidates have addressed the issue, there has been a two-pronged approach: commercials have claimed, often spuriously, that their Democratic opponents are too extreme on abortion, and that the Republican candidates themselves are moderate.An ad that aired in Arizona in September, where Republican Blake Masters is hoping to win Mark Kelly’s Senate seat, managed to combine both.His ad, prosaically titled Arizona’s Mark Kelly Supports Painful Late Abortions, is full of mistruths and dishonest statements – a theme that has run through a majority of TV ads nationwide during the election campaign – claiming wrongly that Kelly supports abortion “right up to the due date”, and stating that Masters himself has sought “compromise” on the issue, despite the Republican having backed proposals that would ban all abortion, with no exceptions for rape or incest.Cost of livingThe big spending from Republicans has come on cost of living issues, including taxation and inflation, which reached a 40-year high of 9.1% in June and was at 8.2% in September. Across the country, Republican ads have sought to blame Joe Biden for the rise, frequently citing the $1.9tn coronavirus relief bill he signed in March 2021 as the cause.In September, ads on inflation accounted for 32% of all pro-GOP advertising, according to the Wesleyan Media Project, and in South Carolina, Republican Nancy Mace has tied the rise in price of everyday items not just to Joe Biden, but Nancy Pelosi, too, in a TV ad called Eggs.The ad shows Mace, a Republican congresswoman, pouring a glass of milk and cooking some bacon. The price of both has increased, she notes, adding: “I have had it with crazy inflation.”As the ad continues, Mace offers her plan to bring down the cost of living. It is an unusual plan.“Here’s what I’m going to do to Biden’s tax and spend agenda,” Mace says. She then cracks an egg and tips the contents into a frying pan.Other ads have been less avant-garde. An ad running against Raphael Warnock, Georgia’s Democratic senator, also features a clip of some bacon, along with a gas pump, as a breathless voiceover claims Georgia has been “hit hard by sky-high inflation”.Economists tend to agree that the American Rescue Plan did worsen inflation, Vox reported recently, but there are varying estimates as to how much, and others note that the plan did improve the economy.Democrats, meanwhile, haven’t done much in the way of pushing back. Wesleyan said inflation makes up only 8% of the party and its backers’ ads, and some Democratic leaders themselves agree that their message has been unconvincing.The party seems to be picking up the idea up, though, and has released ads on the economy in the last week, including one in New Hampshire which is undermined slightly by some rather unconvincing acting:The Party bossesIn a neat symmetry, both parties appear to be running from their leaders. According to the Washington Post, since early September Democrats have spent just $3m on ads centering Joe Biden, and Republicans have spent a mere $807,000 on ads highlighting Trump.Each party has, though, run plenty of ads focusing on their opposing party’s bosses. Republicans have blasted out ad after ad criticizing Biden, mostly over spending during the pandemic. Mindful of Biden’s low approval rating – which is currently averaging about 42% – Republicans have sought to tie Democratic candidates across the country to the president.That effort contributed to possibly the daftest ad of the entire campaign season: a singsong affair titled Hidin’ Biden that ran against Democratic congresswoman Sharice Davids in Kansas:Complete with lyrics like: “Sharice Davids, what’s she hidin’, Sharice Davids, she’s hidin’ Biden”, the piano-driven tune highlights that Davids has frequently voted for Biden-backed policies.It’s a similar but less jaunty story in New Hampshire, where voters are warned that Maggie Hassan, the incumbent US senator who is being challenged by Don Bolduc, a Republican and an election denier, “votes with Joe Biden over 96% of the time”:Republicans are clearly banking that Biden is unpopular enough to turn voters away from candidates who have even the loosest connection to the president. The GOP, as FiveThirtyEight pointed out, has replicated this format in Colorado, Michigan, Ohio and Arizona.CrimeCrime is the only issue where Republicans and Democrats come close to equal spending, according to the Washington Post. Republicans, frequently pushing a dystopian vision of cities ridden by murder and violent crime, have spent $49m on ads discussing crime since early September, compared to $36m invested by Democrats.The number of murders in major cities has fallen so far in 2022, but remains above the numbers in 2019, and a survey by the Major Cities Chiefs Association found that violent crime had risen 4.2% through the first six months of this year compared with 2021.That has given Republicans plenty of fodder to paint Democrats as soft on crime, in some cases, with racist overtones. “In states as disparate as Wisconsin and New Mexico, ads have labeled a Black candidate as ‘different’ and ‘dangerous’ and darkened a white man’s hands as they portrayed him as a criminal,” the New York Times wrote of the trend.Mandela Barnes is the subject of the Wisconsin ad, which ends with Barnes’s face positioned next to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Rashida Tlaib and Ilhan Omar – all women of color – while the words “different” and “dangerous” flash across the screen:In Pennsylvania, Oz has run several ads on crime, claiming: “Today’s kids aren’t safe in our communities.” One spot, titled Crazy Dangerous Ideas, accuses Fetterman of “emptying our prisons”, which, according to the ad, would lead to “more hardened criminals on our streets”:Democrats, for their part, have run ads featuring themselves with police officers in an effort to rebut Republican claims that the left will defund police forces.Fetterman has created ads highlighting the work he did to bring down violent crime in Braddock, where he spent 13 years as mayor, with one featuring a local sheriff. Barnes, meanwhile, recruited a retired police sergeant for an ad in September:“I worked on the force for 30 years,” the retired officer, called Rick, says.“I’ve seen plenty of politicians. But Mandela, he’s the real deal. Mandela doesn’t want to defund the police. He’s very supportive of law enforcement.”With less than a week to go until America votes, it remains to be seen which of the party’s strategies will have the most impact.In the weeks following the supreme court’s Roe v Wade decision, abortion rights became one of the most important issues for voters – and with Democrats’ huge investment in abortion-related ads, the party has been counting on it turning out the vote.But as inflation and gas prices have risen, polls show that the economy has emerged as the key issue for voters.Over the past couple of weeks some Democrats, including Bernie Sanders, have urged their party to focus on plans for economic recovery, and late-running ads could reflect voters’ concerns. As the election looms, Democratic supporters will be hoping it’s not a case of too little too late.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022AdvertisingUS politicsRepublicansDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More

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      Biden urges Americans to take a stand against political violence: ‘We’re facing a defining moment’

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      Biden urges Americans to take a stand against political violence: ‘We’re facing a defining moment’President asks voters to reject election denying candidates in midterms to ‘preserve democracy’ Joe Biden has issued a rallying cry for the preservation of democracy and a dark warning that America could face political violence as it barrels toward next week’s midterm elections.The US president used a prime time address on Wednesday to argue that his predecessor Donald Trump’s “big lie” about the 2020 election being stolen has become “an article of faith” in the extreme wing of the Republican party.‘The Trump playbook’: Republicans hint they will deny election resultsRead moreBiden delivered his address to supporters under a painted ceiling in an ornate room at Washington’s Union Station, which is within sight of the US Capitol that was stormed on January 6 last year by a furious mob of Trump supporters.Behind him were eight US flags and a blue curtain – a less dramatic backdrop than the red and blue lights of his “Battle for the Soul of the Nation speech at Philadelphia’s Independence Hall two months ago, where he spoke on similar themes.But just as that address was framed by Republicans as an attack on their voters, his latest remarks found little unity. The conservative Fox News channel ran captions such as “Biden ignores crime & inflation to talk about ‘threat to democracy’” and “Divider in chief”.Its effect on an election in which 27 million people have already voted was also uncertain. A CBS News poll late last month found that 63% of likely Democratic voters say a functioning democracy is a bigger concern than a strong economy, but 70% of Republican voters say the opposite.Biden acknowledged that there is much at stake in the midterm elections, just six days away, but insisted: “Make no mistake, democracy is on the ballot for all of us.”He began his remarks, hosted by the Democratic National Committee, by citing last week’s attack on Paul Pelosi, the husband of House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, at their home in San Francisco. He noted that the hammer–wielding assailant had asked “Where’s Nancy? Where’s Nancy?” – the same words used by the rioters on January 6.Trump’s false claims about a stolen election have “fueled the dangerous rise of political violence and voter intimidation over the past two years”, Biden said.“We’re facing a defining moment. We must with one overwhelming, unified voice speak, as a country, and say there’s no place for voter intimidation or political violence in America.”The midterms will determine control of Congress and mark the first nationwide test of American democracy since Trump lost the White House and his supporters laid siege to the Capitol. “I wish I could say the assault on our democracy had ended that day,” Biden remarked. “But I cannot.”The president warned that it is estimated more than 300 election deniers are on the ballot across America this year with an impact he described as damaging, corrosive and destructive.“As I stand here today, there are candidates running for every level of office in America, for governor, Congress, attorney general, secretary of state, who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections that they’re running in.“That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And it’s un-American. As I’ve said before, you can’t love your country only when you win.”He called on voters to reject candidates who have denied the results of the vote which even Trump’s administration declared to be free of any widespread fraud or interference, urging them to “think long and hard about the moment we are in”.“This is no ordinary year so I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we’re in. In a typical year, we are not often faced with the question of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put it at risk. But this year we are.”Biden sought to preempt potential disinformation and unrest on election night, pointing out that it takes time to count all legitimate ballots so voters need to be patient. In 2020 Trump falsely claimed that mail-in votes tabulated after election day were illegitimate.He again identified Trump as the architect of the chaos. “He has abused his power and put the loyalty to himself above loyalty to the constitution. He’s made the big lie an article of faith in the Maga Republican party.”Biden described “ultra-Maga” Republicans – a reference to Trump’s “Make America Great Again” slogan – as a minority but “driving force” of the Republican party.Pointing to mounting concerns over political violence as well as threats of America’s long tradition of peaceful and accurate elections, he argued these Republicans are “trying to succeed where they failed in 2020 to suppress the rights of voters and subvert the electoral system itself”.Biden added: “There’s an alarming rise in the number of people in this country condoning political violence or simply remaining silent. The silence is complicity.”He described those who are willing to use violence to achieve political ends as a “distinct minority” in America, “but they are loud and they are determined”.Many Americans remain pessimistic about the state of democracy. An October poll by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research found that just 9% of adults think democracy is working “extremely” or “very well,” while 52% say it’s not working well.Republicans condemned Wednesday’s speech. Senator Tom Cotton tweeted: “To Biden, “democracy” means one thing: Democrats having complete power.”Ronna McDaniel, chairwoman of the Republican National Committee, said: “Desperate and dishonest. Joe Biden promised unity but has instead demonized and smeared Americans, while making life more expensive for all.“While Republicans remain focused on the issues that matter most to voters, Biden and Democrats are flailing in the final days because they have lost touch with the concerns of families struggling to get by.”Biden has made the global struggle between democracy and autocracy a defining theme of his presidency. In a heartfelt plea, he claimed that Americans can no longer take democracy for granted. “In our bones we know democracy is at risk, but we also know this: it’s in our power to preserve our democracy.”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Joe BidenRepublicansDemocratsDonald TrumpUS politicsnewsReuse this content More

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      Trump lawyers saw Clarence Thomas as ‘only chance’ to challenge 2020 election – live

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      As they attempted to stop Joe Biden from assuming the presidency despite his victory in the 2020 election, lawyers for Donald Trump wanted to appeal specifically to Clarence Thomas, one of the most conservative justices on the supreme court, according to emails obtained by Politico.“We want to frame things so that Thomas could be the one to issue some sort of stay or other circuit justice opinion saying Georgia is in legitimate doubt,” attorney Kenneth Chesebro wrote in an email to the then-president’s lawyers on the last day of 2020.He called a ruling from Thomas “our only chance to get a favorable judicial opinion by Jan. 6, which might hold up the Georgia count in Congress.”In the weeks after he lost the 3 November 2020 election, Trump and his allies tried to convince lawmakers and officials in swing states that voted for Biden, such as Georgia, to disrupt the certification of their results and potentially delay the Democrat from taking office. They also mounted a legal campaign with the same goal.Politico obtained the emails from John Eastman, another lawyer for the president who is seen as a key architect of the campaign. The emails were among a batch Eastman unsuccessfully attempted to stop the January 6 committee from obtaining, according to Politico.In his speech, Biden plans to make the case that election deniers running for office are leading a “path to chaos in America,” according to experts released by the DNC. “There are candidates running for every level of office in America: for governor, for Congress, for attorney general, for secretary of state who won’t commit to accepting the results of the elections they’re in,” Biden plans to say. “That is the path to chaos in America. It’s unprecedented. It’s unlawful. And, It is un-American.”He will also make the point that this is an unusual, unprecedented election year. “This is no ordinary year. So, I ask you to think long and hard about the moment we are in,” Biden will say. “In a typical year, we are not often faced with the question of whether the vote we cast will preserve democracy or put it at risk. But we are this year.”Justice Democrats, a progressive political action committee, has urged Biden to draw a line between the right-wing threats to democracy with and the economy.“If Republicans succeed in their plot against democracy, their big oil and pharma donors will be free to raise prices as high as they wish without our one tool to reign them in: government of, by, and for the people,” said Waleed Shahid, a spokesperson for the group.“President Biden must make a strong case for how the MAGA Republican assault on our democracy is a pocketbook issue tied to inflation.” -@_WaleedShahidOur statement ahead of President Biden’s major speech on democracy tonight: pic.twitter.com/Dl9ZEdEjIj— Justice Democrats (@justicedems) November 2, 2022
      A slate of far-right candidates who have vowed to dismantle election systems are running in statewide and local races across the country, on a platform based on the conspiracy theory that the 2020 election was stolen from Donald Trump.But with early voting underway, economic concerns have been top of mind for many voters, polls show, possibly directing them toward Republican candidates. Progressives, including Bernie Sanders, have urged Democratic candidates to not to ignore voters’ economic woes even as they center threats to democracy and abortion rights.“It would be political malpractice for Democrats to ignore the state of the economy and allow Republican lies and distortions to go unanswered,” he wrote in a recent op-ed for the Guardian. “In poll after poll, Republicans are more trusted than Democrats to handle the economy – the issue of most importance to people. I believe that if Democrats do not fight back on economic issues and present a strong pro-worker agenda, they could well be in the minority in both the House and the Senate next year.”Later this evening, Joe Biden is set to give a speech about threats to democracy.In recent weeks, he has centered in on the message that “democracy is on the ballot” this election. His last primetime speech addressed threats from the “Maga forces” of Donald Trump and his supporters.Tonight, the president “will be very clear tonight that he is speaking to people who don’t agree with him on any issues, who don’t agree on his agenda, but who really can unite behind this idea of this fundamental value of democracy”, White House senior adviser Anita Dunn said today during an event hosted by Axios.He is also expected to address heightened threats against political figures, in the aftermath of a politically motivated attack on Paul Pelosi, House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s husband. In the spring of this year, Julie Falbaum’s 20-year-old son walked into a frat party filled with about 50 of his peers, holding a stack of petitions. They were for a campaign to protect abortion.“Who wants to be a dad?” he yelled. Like a park-goer throwing bread to pigeons, he chucked the forms around the room and watched as dozens of young men swarmed to sign them.The campaign to enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution was already under way here even before Roe fell, and it has become an embittered battle in Michigan – to keep a 90-year-old abortion ban off the books. Campaigners fear that ban would criminalise doctors and pregnant people and deny essential medical care, such as miscarriage medication, now that the constitutional right to abortion no longer exists in the US.The battle in Michigan has brought death threats and vandalism from pro-choice militants. On the anti-abortion side, it has involved dirty tactics from the Republican party, which tried to block a petition brought by nearly 800,000 Michiganders over formatting errors, and has peddled a wide campaign of misinformation.Read more:‘This is a blueprint’: abortion rights ballot proposal takes off in MichiganRead moreIn Arizona, the Republican candidate for governor Kari Lake turned the assault on Nancy Pelosi’s husband Paul into a punchline:Arizona gubernatorial candidate Kari Lake (R) gets a big laugh from the crowd after joking about Speaker Pelosi’s husband Paul being violently assaulted:“Nancy Pelosi, well, she’s got protection when she’s in D.C. — apparently her house doesn’t have a lot of protection.” pic.twitter.com/8U647UTO9x— The Recount (@therecount) October 31, 2022
      Paul Pelosi was allegedly attacked on Friday by David DePape, who is accused of breaking into their San Francisco home and shouting “where is Nancy?” DePape told investigators he wanted to take the Democratic House speaker hostage and potentially break her kneecaps, and is facing an array of state and federal charges for the assault.The Guardian’s politics live blog is being handed over to Maanvi Singh, who will take you through the remainder of the day, including Joe Biden’s speech on threats to democracy at 7 pm eastern time.America’s largest trade union federation the AFL-CIO has come out in opposition to the Federal Reserve’s latest rate hike, saying working people will bear the brunt of its tighter monetary policy.“The Federal Reserve’s decision today to raise interest rates by .75% will have a direct and harmful impact on working people and our families. The Fed’s actions will not address the underlying causes of inflation—the war in Ukraine, climate change’s effect on harvests and corporate profits, and an increase in the chances that the United States enters a recession,” the federation’s president Liz Shuler said in a statement.“The Fed seems determined to raise interest rates, though it openly admits those rates could ruin our current economy as unemployment remains low and people are able to find jobs.”The AFL-CIO typically supports Democrats, who are increasingly opposed to the Fed’s rate increases, despite the central bank’s explanation that they are necessary to lower inflation in the United States.Yesterday, a coalition of progressive lawmakers including senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren wrote to Fed chair Jerome Powell, questioning the Fed’s strategy.“You continue to double down on your commitment to ‘act aggressively’ with interest rate hikes and ‘keep at it until it’s done,’ even if ‘(n)o one knows whether this process will lead to a recession or if so, how significant that recession would be,’” the lawmakers said.“These statements reflect an apparent disregard for the livelihoods of millions of working Americans, and we are deeply concerned that your interest rate hikes risk slowing the economy to a crawl while failing to slow rising prices that continue to harm families.”The governor’s race in Wisconsin is a dead heat, Marquette Law School found in a poll released today.Both Democratic incumbent Tony Evers and his Republican challenger Tim Michels are at 48% support among likely voters, the survey found. In the Senate race, GOP incumbent Ron Johnson may have an edge over his Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes, but it’s close, according to the poll. Johnson is at 50% support among likely voters, and Barnes at 48%. The race appears to have tightened up since Marquette’s previous survey conducted from October 3-9, when Johnson polled at 52% support to Barnes’s 46%.Wisconsin is viewed as one of Democrats’ best opportunities to oust a sitting Republican senator, while control of the governor’s mansion may determine whether Wisconsin remains a swing state in future elections, or if Republicans succeeded in their campaign to use gerrymandering and election restrictions to hobble Democrats in the state.Wisconsin’s Democratic governor Tony Evers called his Republican opponent a threat to democracy after he made comments indicating he would consolidate GOP control in the state if elected, The Guardian’s Martin Pengelly reports:The Republican candidate for governor in Wisconsin told supporters at a campaign event that if he is elected his party “will never lose another election” in the state.Tim Michels’ opponent next Tuesday, the incumbent Democrat Tony Evers, said the comment, which was released by a left-leaning group, showed the Republican was “a danger to our democracy”.Michels, a construction company owner, is endorsed by Donald Trump. He has repeated the former president’s lie that his defeat by Joe Biden in 2020 was the result of electoral fraud, and refused to say if he would certify results in a presidential election if he was governor and a Democrat won Wisconsin.In a debate with Evers last month, Michels did not say he would accept the result of his own election. He later said he would.Republican candidates in other swing states have cast doubt on whether they will accept results next week.Fred Wertheimer, president of the non-partisan group Democracy 21, told the Guardian this week: “There’s great danger that the Trump ‘big lie’ is going to spread to states all over the country.“If election deniers lose their elections by narrow margins we can expect that they will reject the results and refuse to accept them.”Republican says party ‘will never lose another election’ in Wisconsin if he winsRead moreIn an attempt to preserve their fragile majorities in the House of Representatives, Democrats this year have spent money to boost far-right Republicans in certain areas, banking that these candidates would be easier for them to defeat in the midterms.In an interview with The Washington Post, Steny Hoyer, the Democratic majority leader in the House, defends the tactic and pins the blame on Republican voters for choosing the more extreme candidate. Democratic congressman Don Beyer, meanwhile, signals discomfort with the strategy:New @PostVideo exclusive:House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) told The Post in a recent interview that spending by Democrats amplifying far-right Republican candidates who have questioned or denied the results of the 2020 election does not undermine U.S. democracy. pic.twitter.com/JBGO4YGc4k— JM Rieger (@RiegerReport) November 2, 2022
      The Federal Reserve has once again raised interest rates in a bid to lower the United States’ stubbornly high rate of inflation by tightening the ability of businesses and consumers to borrow money.Inflation has been a major factor in president Joe Biden’s low approval ratings among voters. In the run-up to the central bank’s two-day meeting that concluded today, some Democratic senators had urged its policy setting committee to proceed cautiously or even hold off on another increase, saying rates that are higher than necessary could harm the economy.Here’s more on the Fed’s decision from The Guardian’s Dominic Rushe:.css-knbk2a{height:1em;width:1.5em;margin-right:3px;vertical-align:baseline;fill:#C70000;}The Federal Reserve stepped up its fight against a 40-year high in US inflation on Wednesday, announcing its fourth consecutive three-quarters of a percentage point hike in interest rates.
      With the cost of living crisis battering consumers and Joe Biden’s political fortunes, Fed officials have now imposed six rate rises in a row, the sharpest increases in interest rates since the 1980s, when inflation touched 14% and rates rose to nearly 20%.
      The Fed’s latest increase brings the federal funds rate – which acts as a benchmark for everything including business loans, credit card and mortgage rates – to between 3.75% and 4% after sitting at 0% for more than a year during the coronavirus pandemic.
      The central bank does not expect inflation or interest rates to reach the levels seen in the 80s. Chair Jerome Powell has indicated that the Fed expects rates will reach 4.4% by the end of the year and start coming down until 2024. Fed officials had expected inflation to decline this year.
      But inflation – which the Fed initially dismissed as “transitory” – remains stubbornly high. In September, the costs of goods and services were 8.2% higher compared to a year ago, well above the Fed’s target inflation rate of 2%.Fed announces sixth consecutive hike in US interest rates to fight inflationRead moreSome of the most closely watched races this year are being held in Arizona, where Democrats are fighting to keep hold of a Senate seat, while Republicans have elevated candidates for governor and secretary of state who have promoted baseless conspiracy theories about the 2020 election.For a better understanding of how Donald Trump has transformed the politics of the southwestern state, take a look at this report The Guardian’s Oliver Laughland in Phoenix: More

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      These midterm elections have enormous stakes for poor and low-income Americans | Rev William Barber and Karen Dolan

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      These midterm elections have enormous stakes for poor and low-income AmericansReverend William Barber and Karen DolanOur country faces a material and moral crisis – and Republicans are offering only resentment and false solutions Our wellbeing is on the ballot this November. Amid a pandemic, rising inflation, and deepening financial instability, we need a strong commitment from all candidates to our children, families and planet.In 2021, we won some of that commitment.Democrats need to address economic fears now – or risk losing their majorities | Robert ReichRead moreMembers of Congress – some of them – heard our voices. They made investments – from the expanded child tax credit to healthcare to infrastructure – that brought unemployment to historic lows and reduced child poverty to its lowest measure on record.Prior to the pandemic, the Poor People’s Campaign: a National Call for Moral Revival estimated that 140 million of us were poor and low-wealth. The American Rescue Plan and other investments brought that down to 112 million last year – a huge step forward.But even this help left one-third of us still living in serious economic hardship. Even worse, it was temporary. With those programs now expiring, and the cost of living continuing to climb, poverty is again on the rise.What have we learned? That poverty is a political choice. It drops when the government commits to reducing it. And it rises when that commitment vanishes.So the stakes for America’s poor and low-income families are huge this election.It’s not just social spending at stake. Climate disasters are becoming deadlier and costlier. Wars, supply chain issues and corporate price-gouging are sending inflation upward. And the democratic systems we need to fix these problems together are under threat themselves.We need our lawmakers to show moral leadership and take these crises seriously.The Republicans favored to take control of the House of Representatives have released a program they call the “Commitment to America”. We believe this document shows none of that moral leadership. Instead, it peddles in hollow resentment politicking and offers no alternatives to address real problems.To the contrary, this agenda seems to threaten the most effective anti-poverty programs we have – like social security and Medicare – with vague allusions to “fixing” and “personalizing” them. Coming from Republicans, terms like these usually mean privatization.Privatized healthcare helped big pharma and insurance companies make huge profits through the worst public health crisis in a century. And private takeovers of nursing homes increased both costs and deaths among Medicare patients using those facilities. What we need now is more public health care.And despite professing concern for our health, the Republican manifesto leaves out the fact that every Republican voted against affordable healthcare and reducing prescription drug prices.Meanwhile, the Republican program promises to increase our already obscene and ever-increasing Pentagon budget.We’ve already spent over $21tn over the past 20 years on war, policing, surveillance and border enforcement even as our healthcare, infrastructure and social programs have failed to keep up with need. The so-called “Commitment to America” would divert still more funding from children and families while ignoring that the greatest threat to the homeland is domestic terrorism.Finally, the “Commitment to America” promises still more tax cuts for corporations and the extremely wealthy. The 2017 Trump tax cuts for the rich are already on track to cost more than $2.2tn over the next decade. If they’re extended, they could cost $5.5tn – effectively taking away from programs that support our basic needs.Rather than its stated purpose, the Republican program is merely a commitment to corporate greed and private profit. These times call for a real “commitment to America” that moves us toward the promise of what we want to be. Toward a nation where the wellbeing of all of our children and families is guaranteed. A society where all workers have dignity and living wages, paid leave, healthcare, and the right to unionize.In this society, moral policies would lift the crushing burden of debt. They would ensure a robust democracy and our participation in the decisions impacting our daily lives. They would prioritize wellbeing over militarization and mass incarceration.This November, with one-third of the nation still struggling, we must come together and demand a real commitment to the wellbeing of our hardworking families from all candidates, not the revenge politics being served up by those who are unprepared to lead. We won’t be silent any more.
      The Rev Dr William J Barber II is a national co-chair of the Poor People’s Campaign: A National Call for Moral Revival
      Karen Dolan directs the Criminalization of Race and Poverty Project at the Institute for Policy Studies
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      How Donald Trump's legacy poisoned Arizona’s fragile democracy – video

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      In Arizona, all of the statewide Republican candidates for the midterm elections have falsely claimed the 2020 election result was not legitimate. As these conspiracy theories spread, Oliver Laughland travels to Phoenix to meet Adrian Fontes, the Democrat trying to defeat Trump loyalist and election denier Mark Finchem in the race for secretary of state

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      After the flood: inside the 4 November Guardian Weekly

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      After the flood: inside the 4 November Guardian WeeklyCop27’s climate prospects. Plus: Can the Democrats rescue the US midterms?Get the Guardian Weekly delivered to your home address For readers of the Guardian Weekly magazine’s North American edition this week, the cover focuses on the Democrats’ precarious hopes in the midterm elections. Elsewhere, the spotlight shines on the Cop27 climate summit in Egypt.Cautious optimism followed the last Cop conference in Glasgow, where an international roadmap was agreed to keep the world within 1.5C of global heating. On the eve of this year’s summit, however, a slew of alarming reports have shown that carbon emissions are still rising.Further carbon cuts therefore ought to be a priority, argue scientists. However, Cop27 is likely to be dominated by debate about compensation that poorer nations feel richer countries should be paying for climate damage. Observer science and environment editor Robin McKie sets the scene for a summit that seems engulfed in a storm of its own. And there’s a fascinating report by Mark Townsend on the Just Stop Oil protests, as debate stirs among activists about whether direct action tactics are effective in changing attitudes.The US midterm elections next week could see a Republican party still dominated by Donald Trump gain control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate. David Smith asks whether an intervention by former president Barack Obama could give a late kickstart to the Democrats’ hopes.Jubilation and relief accompanied Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva’s narrow election victory in Brazil, ending Jair Bolsonaro’s era of Amazon destruction. Latin America correspondent Tom Phillips reports on a much-needed moment of hope for the region and the world, but Andrew Downie warns that difficult challenges await the returning president-elect.On the culture front there’s an interview by Simon Hattenstone with the actor Damian Lewis, who talks about life after the death of his wife, Helen McCrory. And Jonathan Jones meets the artist David Shrigley, for whom a move to the countryside has not exactly mellowed his anxiety-laden brand of pop art.Get the Guardian Weekly delivered to your home addressTopicsCop27Inside Guardian WeeklyClimate crisisUS midterm elections 2022DemocratsRepublicansUS politicsBrazilReuse this content More

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      January 6 committee ‘in discussions’ with Trump over testifying, Cheney says – as it happened

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      The January 6 committee is “in discussions” with lawyers for Donald Trump about whether the former president will comply with the lawmakers’ subpoena for his testimony about the attack on the Capitol, CNN reports vice-chair Liz Cheney said today.At what was expected to be its last public hearing, the January 6 committee last month voted to issue a subpoena to Trump for documents related to the attack and for him to testify under oath. He has not yet said whether he would comply with their summons, but in the past has cheered instances where his allies have defied the committee, and fought aggressively against other investigations into his conduct.According to CNN, Cheney said Trump “has an obligation to comply” with the panel. She said the format of his testimony has not yet been decided but, “It’ll be done under oath. It’ll be done, potentially, over multiple days,” and the committee is not at the “mercy of Donald Trump.” She was speaking in Cleveland, Ohio at an event about the threat of political violence.Trump faces a Friday deadline to turn over documents requested in the subpoena, and a 14 November deadline for his testimony.The supreme court issued two consequential orders in cases concerning Donald Trump today, first by temporarily blocking a House committee from receiving his tax returns until it could consider an emergency petition from the ex-president. However, it turned down an attempt by Republican senator Lindsey Graham to quash a subpoena from a special grand jury in Georgia – meaning the Trump loyalist will soon have to answer questions about efforts to meddle in the state’s 2020 election results. Vice-chair of the January 6 committee Liz Cheney meanwhile revealed the committee was still negotiating with the ex-president’s lawyers over whether he would testify as part of their inquiry into the attack on the Capitol.Here’s what else happened today:
      A historian warned the attack against Paul Pelosi last week could be the latest sign of an increase in political violence in the United States. Another likened it to the 1850s, a period when tensions that led to the civil war hit a boiling point.
      Trump promoted conspiracy theories about the attack on Pelosi in a podcast interview today.
      California’s Democratic governor Gavin Newsom blamed Fox News for creating the atmosphere that fueled the violence against Pelosi.
      Meanwhile in Arizona, the GOP nominee for governor has decided to turn the attack on Paul Pelosi into a punchline, Martin Pengelly reports:The Republican candidate for governor of Arizona, Kari Lake, drew laughter at a campaign event in Scottsdale on Monday with a remark about the attack on Paul Pelosi, husband of the Democratic US House speaker, Nancy Pelosi.“Nancy Pelosi, well, she’s got protection when she’s in DC,” Lake said. “Apparently her house doesn’t have a lot of protection.”Paul Pelosi, 82, was attacked with a hammer at his home in San Francisco on Friday. He remained in intensive care on Monday but was expected to recover.His attacker, David DePape, 42, reportedly shouted “Where is Nancy?” On Monday, he was charged with attempted murder, assault and other crimes. Authorities said he told police he wanted to hold Nancy Pelosi hostage and “break her kneecaps”. DePape is also reported to have posted conspiracy-laced screeds online.Republican and rightwing responses to the attack – many seeking to advance the GOP’s law-and-order midterm elections message – have drawn controversy. Democrats and media observers have warned of the danger of stoking politically inspired violence.Republican candidate draws laughter with mockery of attack on Paul PelosiRead moreDavid DePape, who is accused of breaking into Nancy Pelosi’s home and assaulting her husband, Paul, is expected to make his first court appearance today, KTVU reports:JUST IN: Just confirmed David Depape is now being held in County Jail and is no longer in the hospital, as of yesterday. @SheriffSF confirms he was booked in absentia while under Sheriff’s Office protection in the hospital. He’s expected in court at 1:30p @KTVU— James Torrez (@JamesTorrezNews) November 1, 2022
      Federal prosecutors yesterday announced charges of attempted kidnapping and assault against DePape over the Friday attack. San Francisco police said after his arrest DePape was held on suspicion of attempted murder and elder abuse, among other charges.Liz Cheney has endorsed another Democrat facing a tight race in next Tuesday’s midterm elections: Ohio Senate candidate Tim Ryan.During an appearance in the state today, Cheney, a Republican congresswoman who is in her last weeks in office after losing her primary earlier this year, said she would not vote for JD Vance, the GOP’s nominee for Ohio’s soon-to-be-vacant Senate seat.Appearing in Ohio, outgoing Rep. Liz Cheney (R-WY) endorses a second Democratic candidate, Rep. Tim Ryan, who is locked in a tight Senate race with GOP nominee J.D. Vance.Judy Woodruff: “So if you were a Buckeye State voter, you’d be voting for Tim Ryan?”Cheney: “I would.” pic.twitter.com/BPoRlTqcdh— The Recount (@therecount) November 1, 2022
      Last month, she endorsed Democratic congresswoman Elissa Slotkin, who is up for re-election in Michigan. The daughter of former Republican vice-president Dick Cheney, Liz Cheney was among the most conservative members of the House, but fell out with the GOP over her opposition to Donald Trump.Republican and Trump critic Liz Cheney to campaign for Michigan DemocratRead moreThe supreme court has turned down a challenge from Republican senator Lindsey Graham to a subpoena from a special grand jury in Georgia that is investigating attempts by Donald Trump’s allies to meddle in the state’s 2020 election results.The court’s order clears the way for Graham to appear before the jurors empaneled by Fulton county district attorney Fanni Willis, which issued the subpoena to the South Carolina lawmaker earlier this year. Graham challenged the summons in federal court, but was unsuccessful.Willis has summoned a number of allies of the former president to a courthouse in Atlanta to answer questions about attempts to stop the certification of Joe Biden’s victory in the state. These include Trump’s lawyer Rudy Giuliani, who has also been told he was a target in the investigation. Georgia’s Republican secretary of state, Brad Raffensperger, has said Graham suggested throwing out legally cast ballots in the state.Georgia’s secretary of state says Lindsey Graham suggested he throw out legal ballotsRead moreThe January 6 committee is “in discussions” with lawyers for Donald Trump about whether the former president will comply with the lawmakers’ subpoena for his testimony about the attack on the Capitol, CNN reports vice-chair Liz Cheney said today.At what was expected to be its last public hearing, the January 6 committee last month voted to issue a subpoena to Trump for documents related to the attack and for him to testify under oath. He has not yet said whether he would comply with their summons, but in the past has cheered instances where his allies have defied the committee, and fought aggressively against other investigations into his conduct.According to CNN, Cheney said Trump “has an obligation to comply” with the panel. She said the format of his testimony has not yet been decided but, “It’ll be done under oath. It’ll be done, potentially, over multiple days,” and the committee is not at the “mercy of Donald Trump.” She was speaking in Cleveland, Ohio at an event about the threat of political violence.Trump faces a Friday deadline to turn over documents requested in the subpoena, and a 14 November deadline for his testimony.Federal prosecutors have asked for a three-month prison sentence for a US army veteran from Tennessee who pleaded guilty to invading the US Capitol on the day of the January 6 attack.According to documents filed by the US justice department, James Brooks admitted he spent more than two hours in the Capitol during the insurrection while equipped with tear gas, body armor and a two-way radio. He also acknowledged yelling at officers trying to defend the building: “You took an oath like I did… every one of you!”Brooks’s sentencing is tentatively set for Thursday.He is among more than 900 Capitol rioters who have been charged in connection with an attack to which officials have linked nine deaths, including suicides among law enforcement officers left traumatized by that day. Supporters of Donald Trump staged the attack as an unsuccessful attempt to keep the former president in the Oval Office after his defeat to Joe Biden in the 2020 election.Democrats are banking that outrage over the supreme court’s upending of abortion rights will help their candidates in the midterms. The Guardian’s Poppy Noor reports from one district in Michigan, where the dynamic appears to be real for an embattled Democrat:Elissa Slotkin is a straight shooter. She doesn’t miss a beat when asked a tough question. She speaks up often, and forcefully, against things she perceives as unjust – whether perpetrated by her opponents or her own Democratic party. But when asked what she’ll think if the proposal to enshrine abortion rights in Michigan’s state constitution doesn’t pass this November, she clams up.Slotkin fidgets, stroking one thumb over the other, in a repetitive, soothing motion.Is she discombobulated?“Yes,” she answers, back to her usual, rapid-fire pace.Why?“I’ll tell you this,” Slotkin begins. “If it fails to pass, I won’t be re-elected. Because it means I’m fundamentally out of touch.”She pauses, cautiously, and adds: “But I don’t believe that to be the case. I think I’m going to win.”That’s a big statement. Slotkin is running in one of the country’s most tightly contested seats, as a Democrat who won Trump voters back from the Republican party in both 2018 and 2020.She is also running in a midterm election full of twists and turns – one that has seen Democrats’ hopes to avoid the typically poor showing of the party in power begin to rise, only to plummet again. But even with a mixed economy, rising inflation and unfavourable polling for the president, people are putting their money on Slotkin in huge numbers: the race for Michigan’s seventh, a newly drawn district pitting Slotkin against state senator Tom Barrett, has become the most expensive race in the country in terms of outside spending. Outside spending, generally, is a good barometer for how important a race is, with the largest amounts coming from the national parties – and in the case of the seventh, $27m has been poured into the race.Michigan Democrat’s lead shows abortion may be the issue that decides midterm racesRead moreConcerns about political violence across the US as the 8 November midterm elections loom won’t subside after a candidate for a seat in the Pennsylvania state house of representatives was reportedly attacked at his home Monday.Richard Ringer, a 69-year-old Democrat, told the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette that an attacker blooded him and knocked him unconscious in his backyard about 5am.“A guy was standing with his back to me – I went and bear-hugged him, wrestled, ended up on the ground,” Ringer said of the violent encounter. “He was larger than I am and he pinned me down on my left side.”Ringer also said: “He hit me 10 to 12 times in the head, in the face and by the eye and he knocked me out” and fled.The description of the attack to the Post-Gazette doesn’t suggest an overtly political motive. But the newspaper noted that the confrontation marked the third time in two weeks he has had to call 911 as his run for an open state House seat against a Republican, Charity Grimm Krupa, comes to a close.Meanwhile, though police investigators haven’t publicly identified any potential suspects, Ringer said he couldn’t help but wonder if the attack on him at this stage of his campaign pertained to his candidacy.Ringer’s attack Monday happened hours before federal authorities charged the man accused of breaking into the home of US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and battering her husband, Paul Pelosi, with a hammer last week was charged with attempted kidnapping and assault.Authorities allege that the intruder, 42-year-old David DePape, wanted to break Nancy Pelosi’s kneecaps so that she would have to be brought into Congress in a wheelchair as a warning to lawmakers that actions have consequences.It was the second time in less than two years that the House Speaker was targeted by a violent attack. Her office was vandalized on the day that far-right extremists supporting former president Donald Trump staged the US Capitol attack on January 6 2021.DePape’s arrest prompted Pelosi’s fellow Democrats to ramp up their warnings of escalating political violence in America.Joe Biden is on his way to Florida today to campaign for the Democratic candidates for governor and senator, both of whom are seen as trailing their Republican opponents. Part of the reason for that is discontent with Democrats’ handling of the economy, and in a speech Monday afternoon, the president tried to regain the initiative from Republicans, according to the Associated Press:Joe Biden has accused oil companies of “war profiteering” as the president raised the possibility of imposing a windfall tax if companies don’t boost domestic production.In remarks on Monday, just over a week away from the 8 November midterm elections, Biden criticized major oil companies for making record profits while refusing to help lower prices at the pump for American people. The president said he would look to Congress to levy tax penalties on oil companies if they don’t begin to invest some of their profits in lowering costs for American consumers.“My team will work with Congress to look at these options that are available to us and others,” Biden said. “It’s time for these companies to stop war profiteering, meet their responsibilities in this country and give the American people a break and still do very well.”Biden accuses oil companies of ‘war profiteering’ and threatens windfall taxRead moreThe release of Donald Trump’s tax returns to a House committee has been delayed by the supreme court’s chief justice John Roberts, who ordered the Democratic-led panel to respond in a lawsuit from the former president by Thursday of next week. The temporary stay is a reprieve for Trump, who has refused to make his filings public since his first campaign for office in 2016.Here’s what else happened today so far:
      A historian warned the attack against Paul Pelosi last week could be the latest sign of an increase in political violence in the United States. Another likened it to the 1850s, a period when tensions that led to the civil war hit a boiling point.
      Trump promoted conspiracy theories about the attack on Pelosi in a podcast interview today.
      California’s Democratic governor Gavin Newsom blamed Fox News for creating the atmosphere that fueled the violence against Pelosi.
      This post has been corrected to say the House committee’s deadline to respond to the supreme court’s stay is Thursday of next week, not this week.The list of Republican candidates beyond the reach of conspiracy theories grows shorter. Martin Pengelly reports that a New Hampshire school rebuked the state’s GOP Senate candidate Don Bolduc for making bizarre claims about what happens on its premises:A New Hampshire school has rebuked the Republican US Senate candidate Don Bolduc for claiming schoolchildren were identifying as “furries and fuzzies” in classrooms, using litter trays and licking themselves and each other.“I wish I was making it up,” Bolduc, a retired special forces general, said last week.In response, Pinkerton Academy, in Derry, said Bolduc was indeed making it up.On social media on Monday, the school said: “It has come to our attention that at a recent event in Claremont Don Bolduc named Pinkerton in false claims suggesting that unhygienic, disturbing practices are taking place in our classrooms and spaces on campus.“We want to assure our community that Mr Bolduc’s statements are entirely untrue. We invite all political candidates to speak with members of our administration or visit our campus so they can inform themselves about our school before making claims about what occurs here.”US school criticizes Republican Senate candidate for repeating false litter box claimRead moreCalifornia governor Gavin Newsom blamed Fox News for the attack on Paul Pelosi, saying the husband of Democratic House speaker Nancy Pelosi had become a fixation for one of the network’s commentators in the run-up to the attack:“I don’t think anyone’s been dehumanized like she has consistently,” Newsom, a Democrat, said of Nancy Pelosi in an interview with CBS. “Now I watched this one guy, Jesse Watters or something on Fox News. What he’s been saying about Paul Pelosi the last five, six months, mocking him consistently. Don’t tell me that’s not aiding and abetting all this. Of course it is.”“They’re sowing the seeds, creating a culture and a climate like this,” the governor continued. “I mean, look online. Look at the sewage that is online that they amplify on these networks and in social media to dehumanize people like Nancy Pelosi and other political leaders.”On Monday afternoon, Watters attempted to blame Newsom’s policies for allowing the accused attacker David DePape to be free – though it’s unclear if DePape had any criminal history prior to the attack. “If anything, Gavin Newsom has done more to aid and abet this attack on Paul Pelosi than anybody,” Watters said on Fox News.Prior to the attack, Paul Pelosi had been in the news for pleading guilty to driving under the influence:Paul Pelosi, Nancy Pelosi’s husband, pleads guilty to drunk driving chargeRead more More

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      How Michigan’s abortion referendum could decide key congressional race

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      How Michigan’s abortion referendum could decide key congressional race Democratic candidate Elissa Slotkin says abortion is a top issues in the state and fear of a ban will motivate voters to re-elect her: ‘I’ve never seen anything like it’Elissa Slotkin is a straight shooter. She doesn’t miss a beat when asked a tough question. She speaks up often, and forcefully, against things she perceives as unjust – whether perpetrated by her opponents or her own Democratic party. But when asked what she’ll think if the proposal to enshrine abortion rights in Michigan’s state constitution doesn’t pass this November, she clams up.‘This is a blueprint’: abortion rights ballot proposal takes off in MichiganRead moreSlotkin fidgets, stroking one thumb over the other, in a repetitive, soothing motion.Is she discombobulated?“Yes,” she answers, back to her usual, rapid-fire pace.Why?“I’ll tell you this,” Slotkin begins. “If it fails to pass, I won’t be re-elected. Because it means I’m fundamentally out of touch.”She pauses, cautiously, and adds: “But I don’t believe that to be the case. I think I’m going to win.”That’s a big statement. Slotkin is running in one of the country’s most tightly contested seats, as a Democrat who won Trump voters back from the Republican party in both 2018 and 2020.She is also running in a midterm election full of twists and turns – one that has seen Democrats’ hopes to avoid the typically poor showing of the party in power begin to rise, only to plummet again. But even with a mixed economy, rising inflation and unfavourable polling for the president, people are putting their money on Slotkin in huge numbers: the race for Michigan’s seventh, a newly drawn district pitting Slotkin against state senator Tom Barrett, has become the most expensive race in the country in terms of outside spending. Outside spending, generally, is a good barometer for how important a race is, with the largest amounts coming from the national parties – and in the case of the seventh, $27m has been poured into the race.The race had been neck-and-neck the whole time, but in September something strange happened: Slotkin surged by 18 points. She has held at least a six-point lead over Barrett ever since.The key reason? Abortion.“I’ve never seen anything like it,” says Slotkin. “Everywhere I go, Democrats, Independents and Republicans are talking about this issue. They’re talking about how scared they are of a 1931 abortion ban coming back in Michigan. They don’t want it.”Across the country, the Democrats need to hold on to just a handful of congressional seats this year to keep a majority in the House of Representatives. That has made Michigan’s seventh, and other races like it, so important: whereas single issues, other than the economy aren’t usually enough to turn an entire election, this year several key battleground states are fighting over whether to protect or ban abortion – and that might just be the issue that decides the races.As Slotkin puts it, if the Democrats can win districts in Michigan, the so-called swingiest of swing states, “We still have a path to winning the House.”Still, Slotkin faces a tough challenger in Barrett, an army vet who fought in Iraq and may play to voters in a manufacturing district as the safe choice. He hails from Charlotte, a city in the newly drawn seventh, while the redistricting process – which was decided on by an independent panel to reduce political gerrymandering – has placed Slotkin in a separate district to the family farm where she used to live; she has now moved to Lansing, to live in the area where she’s fighting the race.“He’s really familiar to a good number of the people in this district, which is also quite conservative,” says Jenna Bednar, a political scientist at the University of Michigan. “Tom Barrett doesn’t present himself in any sense as a threatening force. And he is likely to enjoy a lot of support from the rural communities in the district.”But he too has a good challenger in Slotkin – a fiercely bipartisan politician who worked as a CIA analyst and served under both the Bush and the Obama administrations.Recent political maneuvers suggest Barrett, who has previously called himself “100% pro-life” starting from conception, knows his positioning on abortion is unpopular: this summer, he changed his campaign website to soften his anti-abortion stance. Barrett has since stated that his stance hasn’t changed – that he remains anti-abortion, including in cases of rape and incest, and claimed his website was changed by his campaign team, probably to reflect “more salient” issues such as inflation, crime, and the border.Slotkin disputes that.“They’re reading polling,” she asserts. “They realize that in this moderate district, an extreme position does not work … and they have bent over backwards to try and mix the position they really believe in with something that will get them elected.”Indeed, in Michigan, abortion is one of the top issues that comes up on the doorstep, perhaps on par – depending where you are in the state – with inflation. Voters are particularly concerned about impacts on doctors and the health of pregnant people. They see women miscarrying in Texas, and being turned away from the hospital until they “‘come back sicker, with a higher fever, bleeding harder’,” according to Slotkin.“So many nurses are super freaked out,” she says. “And of course, the doctors are fearing litigation. It’s too much, even for Republican pro-life women.”Erika Farley, 45, is one of those Republican women. Despite working for the GOP in Michigan for 20 years, this year she says she will vote for Slotkin. “I was really disturbed by the overturning of Roe v Wade, and I know where Senator Barrett stands on that,” she says.In many ways, being from such a competitive district keeps Slotkin in tune with voters, she thinks. She gave a speech on the House floor in September about a bill that Republicans were trying to delay, that would allow veterans access to abortion care if raped. On that issue, she says, “Republicans were so out of touch with the average American. I was coming from a very competitive district, [whereas] all three of [those trying to delay the bill] were from very easy, ruby-red Republican districts. The only debate they’ve ever had on abortion is who’s more pro-life.”Jeff Timmer, a Republican strategist for more than 30 years before turning away from the party because of Donald Trump, agrees with her take on those Republicans. “They don’t even recognize that their position is in such a distinct minority – that every time [Barrett] utters [his pro-life stance], it repels far more voters than it attracts.”Slotkin believes there is a level of anger floating below the surface for women that she hasn’t seen before. She sees it, she says, because people come to elected officials with their pain.“People tell me some of the most intimate things – things I could barely tell my close friends. They just want me to hear it and say that I’m going to do something about it,” she says.One group she says she is seeing come over to the Democrats because of their anger is women without a college degree. Those are the women, she points out, who, if denied abortion care, would have the hardest time taking time off work, who don’t necessarily have the money to travel to another state for abortion care, “who don’t have the privilege of just escaping from their life, to drive five hours or more to Canada or Chicago for an abortion”.But she accepts the Democrats have their own issues being trusted in the midterms. She mentions Michigan families who have had to cut back because of rising costs: she reckons that’s every family she’s spoken to.“There’s real frustration at the party in power. There’s no doubt – that’s the lead foot for my opponent. [He] is almost gleeful about the economy when gas prices start ticking up,” she says.Slotkin doesn’t hold back from criticizing her own party, either – especially on abortion. Asked whether it was misleading for Biden to promise to codify Roe if the Democrats win the election, Slotkin scoffs.“He does not have the authority to do that – it just doesn’t get anywhere in the Senate.” What’s worse, she says, is that none of this would have been needed had the Democrats done a better job at codifying Roe in the first place.“We have to own the fact that we had a real failure at the federal level to protect women’s rights,” she says. “Over the 50 years since Roe has been in place, no one ever backed it up in legislation. Holy moly – that, to me, feels like we missed a major opportunity.”And she was frustrated to see the national party without a plan after Roe fell. “They were totally taken by surprise,” she says.What bothers Slotkin most, and the reason she couldn’t answer my first question about what happens if proposal 3 doesn’t pass, is that for other states, she feels it’s too late. “If you’re in Alabama, I don’t know what you do.”That’s why the fight for Michigan’s seventh seems to her like a harbinger of America’s future.“The United States is going through something. We’ve had these periods of instability in our past, where the average American wondered if the country was going to continue as they knew it – if their kids and grandkids were going to have the same opportunities they had. So to me, this election is a marker of: are we coming out of this period of extremes?”TopicsUS midterm elections 2022MichiganUS politicsHouse of RepresentativesDemocratsfeaturesReuse this content More