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    Joe Biden returns to childhood home in Scranton: 'From this house to the White House'

    Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden came to his home town of Scranton on election day in the crucial swing state of Pennsylvania, talking of “restoring decency to the White House” if he wins.
    He pledged to unite a riven country and rebuild a middle class hollowed out by economic inequality.
    Biden was cheered by 200 or so supporters as he visited his modest childhood home in Green Ridge, a leafy suburb just outside the city centre.
    There, he signed a living room wall with “From this house to the White House with the grace of God. Joe Biden 11-3-2020”, before coming outside – wearing a black face mask to prevent the spread of coronavirus – to greet neighbours and bump elbows with voters.
    Janet Evans, a retired teacher who lives opposite, said she was confident that the former vice-president would win Pennsylvania and the White House. “He truly cares about average people. And as he often says, he’s not from Park Avenue. He’s from Scranton, North Washington Avenue, and we the people love him and trust him.”
    “He’s the only one that can lead us out of this pandemic safely and save hundreds of thousands of lives. It’s certainly going to be a fight, but at the end of the day, I believe Joe will pull it off,” said Evans, 64.

    Sarah Mucha
    (@sarahmucha)
    Photo of the signature Joe Biden left on the wall of his childhood on Election Day. https://t.co/QyVAvryTtc pic.twitter.com/Lb2TJNy2q6

    November 3, 2020

    Katherine Hose, 25, a student, added: “I’m voting for Biden because of the education system and because he cares about women. But I think it’s going to be a close election.”
    The importance of prevailing in Pennsylvania cannot be overstated.
    Trump’s path to the White House was guaranteed in 2016 after collecting Pennsylvania’s 20 precious electoral college votes by beating Hillary Clinton by just 44,292 votes in the state, out of more than 6 million cast.
    Both candidates have made multiple campaign stops across Pennsylvania over the past week, culminating in a star-studded election eve for the Democrats when Lady Gaga, an anti-fracking activist, performed in Pittsburgh with Biden, and singer John Legend joined Biden’s running mate, Kamala Harris, in Philadelphia.
    Meanwhile, Trump issued a thinly veiled threat to the state’s Democratic governor, claiming that he and his supporters would be “watching him” while making baseless claims that Tom Wolf was implicated in cheating in Pennsylvania.
    Trump has made fracking a campaign issue in Pennsylvania by falsely claiming Biden will destroy hundreds of thousands of jobs by banning fracking. In 2016, Trump carried 57 of the state’s 67 rural and suburban counties where the Democrats have been accused of abandoning white, blue-collar voters.
    But in Green Ridge, Karen Zuton, 76, a retired factory worker, said: “The Democrats didn’t abandon anybody, the Republicans are liars. If Trump wins again he’ll make it a dictatorship. I hope it goes for Joe, but it’s a wait-and-see.”
    Despite rapidly rising Covid-19 cases in Pennsylvania and across the midwest, Zuton voted in person to ensure her vote was counted in tonight’s tallies. Statewide, more than 2.4 million out of 9.1 million eligible voters cast their ballots early, but the full count may not be completed until Friday.
    As polling booths opened on Tuesday, an average of national polls showed Biden leading Trump by 8.4 percentage points, but only 4.7 points in Pennsylvania, according to the website FiveThirtyEight.
    Earlier on Tuesday, Biden visited the Carpenters and Joiners Union on Scranton’s industrial south side, where a small group of supporters chanted “Let’s go Joe” and “we love Joe”.
    Bill Rafalko, 68, a retired technician who voted by mail, said: “I’m convinced that Scranton and Pennsylvania will vote for Biden because we cannot tolerate four more years of the current administration, it’s chaotic, at least he has a plan for the pandemic. And he’s a good, honourable, decent man.”
    Maureen Lyons, 70, a former teacher, added: “This election is the most important in my lifetime. We need to bring normalcy back to the country. We need a human being in the White House, bottom line.” More

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    'It's real fear': clash of two Americas could get worse before it gets better

    “There’s not a liberal America and a conservative America; there’s the United States of America,” Barack Obama said in 2004. “While I will be a Democratic candidate, I will be an American president. I will work as hard for those who didn’t support me as I will for those who did,” Joe Biden said this year.
    Both Democrats preached one nation, but the 2020 presidential election has exacerbated fractures of American society: a profound polarisation that veteran journalist Carl Bernstein referred to as a cold civil war. Some fear that another victory for Donald Trump could tear the nation apart.
    And few are under any illusions that a Biden win on Tuesday would drain the poison overnight. Trump and Trumpism would persist, perhaps in an even more raw and angry form, its sense of racial grievance and injustice festering in opposition. Economic, social and racial fault lines predated the 45th president and will survive him.
    “That division and hatred and fear and frustration and anger are not just going to disappear the day after the election,” said Leon Panetta, a former defence secretary and CIA director. “The difference [if Biden wins] is that you have a president who wants to do what he can not to split the country apart but to bring it together.”
    “But it’s going to take time. It isn’t something that is going to be resolved by one election or one speech or even one bill passed through the Congress. It’s going to have to become a pattern that people ultimately agree is a better way to live in our country.”
    Since he rode down an escalator in June 2015 and fulminated about Mexico sending “criminals and rapists”, division and divisiveness have been defining hallmarks of the Trump era: female v male, Black v white, young v old, liberal v conservative, urban v rural, Hollywood v heartland, college-educated v blue collar, pro-choice v anti-abortion, “elite” v “deplorable”, instinct v science, hipster v hunter.
    The split that Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas, once characterised as “Bubble-ville” against “Bubba-ville”, is intensified through the echo chambers of social media and finds myriad cultural expressions. Polls show that Democrats are more willing to wear masks to combat the coronavirus pandemic, whereas Republicans are more likely to heed Trump’s insistence that it is overhyped and fading fast. More

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    Pennsylvania: the battleground state most likely to take entire election with it

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    In a presidential race with an extraordinary number of moving parts, election day finds Pennsylvania under intensifying scrutiny as the place where it could all come together – or fall spectacularly apart.
    The state and its 20 electoral college votes are sitting at the center of a perfect storm. Polls show one of the tightest races among the battleground states between Donald Trump and Joe Biden. Models project Pennsylvania as the state most likely, when it tips, to take the entire election with it.
    The state also overhauled its election laws last year and is allowing no-excuse mail-in voting for the first time. There could be as many as 10 times as many mail-in votes as there were in 2016, Kathy Boockvar, the state’s top election official, said on Sunday.
    Pennsylvania law also prohibits election officials from processing mail-in ballots until election day, which means it could take days to know the winner in the state, leaving a window for Trump to claim victory before all the votes are counted. Boockvar has said she’s confident the majority of votes will be counted by Friday.
    It’s possible that the entire national election could encounter a physical bottleneck in Philadelphia, the state’s most populous city. Every mail-in ballot in the city – as many as 400,000 – is to be counted inside a cavernous convention center downtown using new equipment and newly trained staff observing social distancing measures. More

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    US braces for historic election amid fears democracy is in danger

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    Americans are bracing for an election day unlike any in US history, shadowed by threats of manipulation and violence, stoking fears that democracy itself is at stake when the polls close on Tuesday night.
    It marks the end of a campaign that has been unprecedented in many ways. More than 94 million Americans had already cast their ballots by Monday, a record for early voting, in the midst of a pandemic. It was equivalent to 70% of the 2016 turnout even before election day dawned.
    It is also the first election in which the incumbent president has said he would try to stop the vote count if early returns on election night show him to be ahead and has openly encouraged acts of intimidation by his supporters.
    On Monday, a high “non-scalable” fence, last seen during the Black Lives Matter protests over the summer, was being erected around the White House. In anticipation of unrest, businesses in Washington and major city centres across the country boarded up their windows. The DC business district advised residents to “take precautions such as securing outdoor furniture and signage that can be used as a projectile”.
    A poll by USA Today and Suffolk University found that three out of four voters were worried about possible violence, with only a quarter of the electorate “very confident” there would be a peaceful transfer of power if the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden, won the election.
    Delivering his closing message on the last day of the campaign, Biden repeated his campaign message that the election was a “battle for the soul of the nation”.
    “The character of America is literally on the ballot,” he said at a drive-in rally in Cleveland, Ohio. “It’s time to take back our democracy.”
    On his final campaign stops, Trump has sought to portray his opponent’s future response to the coronavirus pandemic as a dystopian lockdown that would stifle economic and social life.
    “The Biden plan will turn America into a prison state locking you down, while letting the far-left rioters roam free to loot and burn,” he told a rally in Iowa.
    The air of apprehension has been deepened by repeated threats from Trump that he would seek to portray all votes not counted by election night as illegitimate. He said “we are going in with our lawyers” as soon as voting closes.
    Vote-counting routinely continues for days and sometimes weeks after a US election, but the result is usually called by news agencies based on projections from incomplete counts. That is less likely to be possible this time because of the heavy early and postal voting. More

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    Latest election polls show Biden ahead but race tightening in key states

    Joe Biden is still favoured to win Tuesday’s presidential election, according to the final opinion polls, but a tightening race in several key states offers Donald Trump rising hopes of a pathway back to the White House.
    The Democratic candidate holds a significant lead in national polling, at anywhere between four and 10 percentage points, according to a cluster of polls released on Monday. The poll aggregator fivethirty.eight.com shows Biden with an 8.3-point advantage overall, while Real Clear Politics reflects a lead of 6.5.
    But the Republican president is performing better in some of the battleground states he must win to secure a second term.
    In Florida, largest of the handful of crucial swing states, Trump has cut Biden’s lead to a single point, according to fivethirtyeight.com. Analysts agree that Trump must retain Florida, which he won from Hillary Clinton by only 1.2 points in 2016, and its 29 electoral college votes if he is to stand any chance of reaching the winning figure of 270.
    Florida also offers Biden the cleanest and quickest path to victory. Early votes in the state will be tallied through the day on Tuesday, meaning a declaration is possible before midnight if the race is not too close.
    If Biden loses Florida, attention will turn to Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin, three so-called Blue Wall states that Trump prised from Democratic hands four years ago.

    In Pennsylvania, which offers 20 electoral votes, Biden holds an average 4.2-point advantage. In Michigan, with 16 votes, his lead is 5.1 points, and in Wisconsin, which has 10 votes, it is 6.6 points. Victory in all three, plus the retention of states won by Clinton in 2016, would see Biden elected as the 46th president. However, margins of error built into opinion polling mean such races are probably tighter than they appear.
    Democrats are also wary as polls released just before the 2016 election showed Clinton with a similar national advantage over Trump. She won the popular vote by more than 3m ballots, but defeat in several battleground states handed the White House to Trump.
    On Monday, Trump and Biden spent the final day of campaigning in such vital states. Biden was heading to Pennsylvania for a rally after a stopover in Ohio, where polls show he trails Trump by a sliver. Barack Obama, the former president, was rallying for Biden in Florida. Kamala Harris, Biden’s running mate, was also in Pennsylvania, underlining the state’s importance.
    Trump was barnstorming four states in his final push for victory. After a midnight rally in Miami, Florida, on Sunday, the president was heading for North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and two appearances in Michigan. More

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    US election set to be £1bn betting event with Biden firm favourite

    The 2020 US election is shaping up to be the biggest betting event of all time, with one player placing a record-breaking £1m bet on a victory for the Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.People were still rushing to place bets on Monday on the eve of the election and Matthew Shaddick, the head of political betting at Ladbrokes Coral Group, said it estimated about £1bn would be wagered globally across the industry. Donald Trump’s odds of re-election grew slightly over the weekend, but Biden remained a clear favourite in online betting markets. Betters on the British exchange Smarkets give Biden a 65% chance of winning, while Trump’s prospects have improved to 35% from 34%.Betfair said it also recorded an improvement in Trump’s odds, at the same level. One person had placed £1m on Biden, Betfair said, in the biggest political bet of all time. If Biden wins, the player will bag £1.54m.The former vice-president has a substantial lead in national opinion polls, although the contest is slightly closer in the battleground states that are likely to decide the race.“Florida is one where the polls suggest Biden is the more likely winner, but the [betting] markets have Trump as favourite [there],” Shaddick said. “The GOP have tended to overperform the polls quite regularly in that state.”The election is on track to be by far the biggest betting event, with £271m bet so far, Betfair said. Most of the big-money betting occurs outside the US as betting on politics is illegal there. More

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    Which swing states could decide the US election – video explainer

    Joe Biden is leading ​Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election, but that doesn’t guarantee ​the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign and ended up losing in the electoral college.
    ​Because the presidential ​voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which​ go to the state’s victor regardless of the​ margin of victory (with the exception of Nebraska and Maine), a handful of swing states will ​probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
    The Guardian’s Lauren Gambino examines how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election
    Watch Anywhere but Washington – our video series examining the key election battlegrounds More

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    It's been a strange trip. Four years ago, who would've thought Biden might win? | Art Cullen

    Nearly a year ago, at the side of a snowy and windswept county road in north-west Iowa, I climbed the steps on to the “No Malarkey” campaign bus. Joe Biden rose to greet me. “Where have I been? In South Carolina, that’s where!”We had seen all the candidates but him – Pete Buttigieg was practically a nextdoor neighbor. The week before, we had asked in a headline in our little country paper: “Where’s Joe?”Donald Trump had been impeached and was being tried in the Senate. The Iowa caucuses were a few weeks off. Former Iowa governor Tom Vilsack, agriculture secretary in the Obama administration, rode shotgun while Biden held forth for a half-hour on fighting climate change through regenerative farming practices.“It all starts here. We can do anything if we put our minds to it,” Biden declared.And it all ends here. The former vice-president held a parking lot rally in Des Moines on the Friday before election day, his final call in a state he had worked since 1988 on his route to the White House but never quite won.When the February caucuses cleared, Biden was down in the pack. Buttigieg and Bernie Sanders were tied for first in a delayed result from a failed cellphone reporting app that may well have doomed Iowa’s half-century run as first-in-the-nation. Nevada is itching for pole position.Iowa’s role was to winnow the field. Biden nearly was winnowed here and, a week later, in New Hampshire. Essentially, a half-dozen Democrats had their tickets punched out of Iowa from a field of 25. Mike Bloomberg had his own strategy, bypassing the first states with his bet on Super Tuesday. He could not bypass Elizabeth Warren, who ripped him to shreds in one of the final debates.And Biden had done his work in South Carolina.There, black voters rose up to have their say: No gambling on a lefty. They wanted Safe Joe to bring it home. Representative Jim Clyburn, dean of South Carolina politics, touched Biden’s shoulder. That was that. Little did I know, that blustery day on the bus, how it would play out.Nor do I know this weekend before the election how this long, strange trip of the last four years will end.Iowa is in play after Trump won the state by nine percentage points in 2016. The 2018 midterms saw two women, Cindy Axne and Abby Finkenauer, defeat two incumbent Republican congressmen. Senator Joni Ernst, a Republican who did a brain meld with Trump in her first term, watched her popularity tank – from over 60% to underwater. Ernst narrowly trails Democrat Theresa Greenfield in most polls. Democrats swamped her in fundraising. Biden holds a slight lead over Trump, who can’t afford TV ads in Iowa.Next door, in Wisconsin, Biden has a healthy margin. Trump thinks he can take Minnesota, but it appears he is down by double digits. It’s grim for the president in Michigan, as well. The upper midwest has figured out that trade wars and picking fights with your friends can suck the life out of agriculture and manufacturing. Iowa and Wisconsin are among the most export-sensitive states in the nation.And, as people honked in their cars in the Des Moines parking lot listening to Biden over their FM radios, Iowa set a weekly record for Covid hospitalizations. It’s as bad in Wisconsin, which Biden also hit on Friday along with Minnesota. Despite the danger, people are lining up for early voting from north to south, masked up and resolute for what surely will be a record turnout.In my corner of Iowa, our county auditor expects a smooth and safe election with results by 10pm. Iowa is your early swing-state bellwether. If Trump loses Iowa or Ohio, he loses the presidency. Each is currently a dead heat. Who would have thought that four years ago – or even two years ago, when candidate John Delaney first crossed our threshold by helping shovel snow from our front door after a blizzard?We’re worn out from the countless cafe campaign appearances, and rancorous debates, and this damned pandemic, and the stream of lies from a corrupter in chief. A record number turned out for the primaries – in Storm Lake, young Latinos caucused for Sanders in droves. They protested in the park for Black Lives last summer, and the police knelt right along. On Labor Day there was a big boat parade for Trump. His flags fly along those blacktops where the Biden bus ran. $60bn in trade and disaster subsidies to agriculture washed over those fields the past two years. We were wiped out by floods in 2019 and a freak wind storm in 2020 while California and Colorado burned.We take note and vote. It all comes down to a few states like Iowa and Wisconsin, where Biden aims to seal that victory at long last.Art Cullen is editor of the Storm Lake Times in north-west Iowa, where he won the Pulitzer prize for editorial writing. He is a Guardian US columnist and author of the book Storm Lake: Change, Resilience, and Hope from America’s Heartland More