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    US election poll tracker: who is leading in the swing states?

    US elections 2020

    As the presidential campaign heats up, the Guardian is tracking the latest polling in eight states that could decide the election

    Wed 16 Sep 2020 07.00 EDT

    Last modified on Wed 16 Sep 2020 12.58 EDT

    Joe Biden is leading Donald Trump in the national polls for the presidential election.
    But that doesn’t guarantee the Democratic candidate victory. Hillary Clinton also had a clear lead over Trump in the polls for almost the entire 2016 campaign. She ended up losing in the electoral college.
    Because the presidential voting system assigns each state a number of electoral college votes, which go to the state’s victor regardless of the margin of victory, a handful swing states will probably decide the election and be targeted heavily by campaigners.
    Each day, the Guardian’s poll tracker takes a rolling 14-day average of the polls in eight swing states.
    In order to track how the race is developing in the areas that could decide the election, six of the eight states we focused on were those that flipped to Trump in 2016 after backing Barack Obama in 2012. Arizona and North Carolina were also added due to what they might tell us about a shifting electoral landscape – they could emerge as vital new swing states this year.
    We must caution that the polls – particularly some swing state polls – severely undercounted Trump supporters in 2016. We are not certain, despite assurances, that they they have corrected this. Additionally, they may be over-counting Democratic support (more people may say they will vote for Biden than actually turn out).
    We present the latest polls with those caveats to be borne in mind.

    The national polls
    The latest polling average puts Joe Biden ahead of Trump nationally.
    While the national poll tracker is a poor indicator of how the crucial swing states will sway the election, a strong polling lead across the country is a good indicator of how the race will develop.

    Each day, the Guardian’s national poll tracker takes a 14-day average of national voting intention polls.

    On Tuesday 3 November 2020, Americans will vote for their next president, with a choice between Donald Trump, the Republican incumbent, or his Democratic challenger, Joe Biden.

    Methodology
    The Guardian poll tracker tracks the latest polls in eight crucial swing states. For Biden to claim the White House, he needs to reclaim some of these swing states.
    The Guardian is collating polls in each of these states, as well as another set of national polls. Any polls deemed unreliable – for example, because they have small sample sizes – are excluded.
    Our polling average is a 14-day rolling average: on any day, we collate any polls published in the last 14 days and take a mean average of their results.
    If any company has conducted multiple polls in the last 14 days, we average out their polling results in order to give them just one entry. After this standardization process, we then take a mean average of these daily entries in order to present the polling average. More

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    Black voting power: the fight for change in Milwaukee, one of America’s most segregated cities

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    Guardian US reporter Kenya Evelyn travels home to Milwaukee, Wisconsin, one of the most segregated cities in the country to find out what Joe Biden and the Democratic party can do to truly earn the votes of Black Americans.  
    Democrats dealt Milwaukee another economic blow by moving their national convention online, crushing Black residents already feeling the brunt of a national crisis. They’re fed up, calling out racial inequality and a party some say ignores their issues until it’s time to vote. From generations of moderate elders leaving their legacy, to their young, progressive peers taking to the streets, Black Milwaukeeans are using the power of their voices and votes to demand change

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    Cynthia Nixon: 'Will Donald Trump leave quietly? I don't know'

    Cynthia Nixon Zooms on to my screen from some decking in Long Island. The blue-grey sky is dramatically ominous, a sea breeze blows her hair into photogenic chaos and she is, of course, pretty damn famous – especially to those of us of the Sex and the City generation. So the overall effect is of watching a film, but one that is talking straight to you. Yet, within what feels like barely five seconds, we are discussing the end of democracy, with only the briefest detour to cover the impact wrought on her New York home by coronavirus.“When you’re in New York City, what it reminds me of is the time right after September 11th. It was, in a way, less terrifying than it looked to people watching from the outside, just as it’s strangely less scary to have cancer than to watch someone you love have cancer.”She packs a lot into a sentence – history, terrorism, love, cancer – and is clearly political to her bones: not at all interested in things that simply happen (pandemics and their attendant disruptions) but instead in systems, choices and worldviews. “In terms of the overall political scene across the country, it’s just terrifying. People keep writing these articles about the end of democracy, and it does feel like a real possibility when you have a president who’s trying to sink the Post Office.”At 54, Nixon is a relatively recent discovery as a prominent advocate of the Democratic party’s furthest left: she stood against Andrew Cuomo in the 2018 election for the governor of New York, a race in which she now considers she was doomed from the start. “I was triply burdened,” she says. “I was a woman. I was a gay woman. I was a person who had been an activist for a long time, but had never held political office, and obviously the governor is a really big place to start. And I am an actress, which is a barely coded word for ‘bimbo’ or ‘ditz’. I don’t, in my personal life, ever call myself an actress – I call myself an actor. But Cuomo tried to use that word as often as he could, in a very derogatory way.” More

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    Dominic Raab to face hard questions about Irish border on US visit

    The foreign secretary, Dominic Raab, is travelling to Washington for talks with senior US officials and senior Democrats, where he is expected to be pressed by pro-Irish legislators to explain whether the UK is intending to break international law and undermine the Good Friday agreement.The Irish ambassador to the US, Daniel Mulhall, has been lobbying in Washington, warning that the UK’s latest row with the EU may yet lead to the re-emergence of a hard border on the island of Ireland.With the US presidential elections less than 50 days away, and the Democratic candidate, Joe Biden, still the favourite to win, according to polls, Raab will be eager to reassure members of the Senate and the House of Representatives about the UK’s plans to revise the EU withdrawal agreement.The pro-Irish lobby in Washington rivals that of the UK, and the Democrats, who tend to be Brexit sceptics, want to see the dispute settled without threats, real or imagined, to peace in Northern Ireland.The House speaker, Nancy Pelosi, warned last week that there would be absolutely no chance of a US-UK trade deal passing Congress if Britain violated its international agreements and Brexit undermined the Belfast accords. Any such trade deal needs two-thirds support of the Senate, and so requires substantial support from Democratic senators.A key target of UK lobbying is also likely to be Richard Neal, the chairman of the ways and means committee, which oversees trade agreements. In a statement last week he pointed out that the US was a guarantor of the Good Friday agreement.“I urge both sides to uphold the terms of this joint agreement, particularly with respect to the treatment of Northern Ireland, in accordance with international law,” Neal said. “The UK’s departure from the EU at the end of this year and any US-UK trade agreement must preserve the Good Friday agreement, which has maintained peace and prosperity for British and European peoples since 1998.“I sincerely hope the British government upholds the rule of law and delivers on the commitments it made during Brexit negotiations, particularly in regard to the Irish border protocols.”Tony Blinken, a senior foreign policy adviser to Biden, warned on twitter: “Joe Biden is committed to preserving the hard-earned peace & stability in Northern Ireland.“As the UK and EU work out their relationship, any arrangements must protect the Good Friday agreement and prevent the return of a hard border.”Biden has Irish roots and will look askance at anything that brings the threat of a hard border closer.A set-piece speech at the Atlantic Council thinktank on Thursday may be Raab’s single biggest public chance to explain UK government thinking on Ireland, as well as Iran. The UK is at loggerheads with the Trump administration on the US claim that it has the right to impose UN snapback sanctions on Iran.The UK also questions the practical impact if the US unilaterally declares it has the right to order UN member states to reimpose the sanctions lifted in 2015. The US already has punitive secondary sanctions against Iran.Like the US, the UK would like the UN embargo on conventional arms sales to Iran to be extended, but cannot see a way in which the Russia and China would not use their security council veto to block such a move.Raab on his trip will also be seeking an update on the civil lawsuit being filed by the parents of Harry Dunn in Virginia against Ann Sacoolas, who was charged with causing death by dangerous driving after a crash last year in Northamptonshire that resulted in the 19-year-old’s death.The US has refused a UK government request for the extradition of Sacoolas, the wife of a CIA operative. The UK is not expecting the US administration to change its position on extradition, but is sympathetic to the case. More

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    Dear Joe Biden: the student loan crisis is exploding. We need real action | Various

    Dear Joe Biden,We write to you as the first generation made worse-off because of higher education. Student debt is a national crisis that destroys lives, drags down the economy and fuels the racial wealth gap.No one should be forced to mortgage their future for an education, yet 45 million of us have been forced to do just that. Today the total amount of student debt stands at $1.7tn, and it keeps growing. This is a direct result of decades of divestment in public funding and the privatization of higher education into a for-profit industry. This broken system has shifted the burden of financing higher education on to individual students and households, disproportionately harming Black, Brown, immigrant and low-income communities. Bold solutions are required to address the harms this policy failure has caused. These solutions can start with the personnel staffing the US Department of Education.As bad as Betsy DeVos is, most of the problems with our higher education system predate her. When President Obama was in office, debtors and advocates sounded the alarm about soaring tuition, mounting student debt, predatory loan servicers, criminal for-profit colleges and more, but their warnings went unheeded.Under the leadership of Arne Duncan, John King and Ted Mitchell, the Department of Education fundamentally failed to listen to and protect their constituents. Under their watch, the total amount of student debt doubled, surpassing the total amount of credit card debt for the first time in history. They sat by and allowed impoverished and elderly borrowers’ social security to be garnished. Several Obama administration officials became investors in the predatory for-profit Apollo Education, including Tony Miller, Obama’s former deputy secretary of the education department. And despite public outcry over abuses, Ted Mitchell fought to keep predatory for-profit schools alive, approved the sale of these schools to ECMC (an abusive debt collection company), and now serves as president of the American Council on Education lobbying against mass student debt cancellation.Meanwhile, the students who were defrauded by predatory for-profit schools continue to wait for justice. The education secretary, Arne Duncan, promised them: “If you’ve been defrauded by a school, we’ll make sure that you get every penny of the debt relief you are entitled to through … as streamlined a process as possible.” He broke that promise. And there are hundreds of other Obama Department of Education officials with a history of failing students who are just waiting to waltz back in through the revolving door.Student debtors cannot afford another Democratic administration that sells them out and sells them short. A Biden administration must make a clean break from this history. It is time for a new Department of Education staffed with champions who will fight for students. You should appoint strong advocates to fight for students and real solutions to the student debt crisis.Additionally the Department of Education Organization Act allows the president to appoint up to four assistant secretaries of education. As president, you should fill all four of these positions.You should commit to appointing:A secretary of education who will use the authority Congress has already granted the secretary to cancel student debt on their first day in office. During the primary, Elizabeth Warren promised to use the department’s full “compromise and settlement” authority to provide student loan relief, and in March the Trump administration actually did, though the relief they provided was woefully inadequate. Nevertheless, the move was significant because it is a further recognition of the government’s broad power to cancel student debt. A Biden administration will be inheriting an economic depression and a global health crisis, alongside Mitch McConnell promising to be the “grim reaper” killing any policies designed to help people. Canceling student debt via the Department of Education bypasses McConnell, and is a direct way to stimulate the economy (estimated at a $1tn stimulus over 10 years) and create millions of new jobs. With people’s lives – and livelihoods – at stake, it would be cruel and unnecessary for the Department of Education to continue profiting from student debt. We cannot afford the economic damage this debt causes to American households.An assistant secretary of education dedicated to enforcement. As president, you should appoint an assistant secretary dedicated strictly to enforcing the regulations already on the books. By simply enforcing its own regulations, the Department of Education could fundamentally reshape how higher education functions and is financed. For decades now, it has tolerated a wild west approach, allowing scam accreditation agencies, predatory for-profit schools (which amass huge profits by exploiting low-income communities), and law-breaking debt collectors and loan servicers to flourish. We need someone at the Department of Education who can shut down these corrupt agencies, for-profit schools and abusive servicers and debt collectors once and for all.An assistant secretary dedicated to racial justice and racial equity. This goes beyond merely protecting civil rights; our education system is fundamentally racist, from the disparities in K-12 funding, to persistent “legalized” segregation, to discriminatory enrollment practices and the deeply racialized nature of student debt. (Study after study after study after study after study after study have shown that student debt is a driver of the racial wealth gap, and that the more student debt we cancel, the better it is for Black and Brown borrowers.) This position should be given full rein to examine how white supremacy functions at every level of our educational system and how our system must change on deep structural levels to repair and redress these inequities.By making these commitments you can show the 45 million voters struggling with student debt and the millions of would-be college students that you take their pain seriously. During the Obama administration we organized protests to mark what we called “1T Day,” the day student debt surpassed $1tn. Unless real solutions like College for All are enacted, we will be marking 2T Day during a Biden administration.A generation ago, college was basically free. As a result, many elected officials were able to graduate without taking out student loans. Over the last few decades, millions of students have suffered from a policy failure that developed on their watch – a policy failure that we know how to fix. You can show that you are committed to staffing a Department of Education that will fight for students, stand for racial justice, and help build a fair, equitable and debt-free higher education system.Sincerely,The Debt CollectiveSunrise MovementJustice DemocratsDemand ProgressAction Center on Race & the Economy (ACRE)The Project on Predatory Student Lending at Harvard Law SchoolProgressive Democrats of America (DPA)Council of UC Faculty AssociationsRutgers AAUP-AFTStudent ActionNYC DSA Debt & Finance Working GroupThe LeapSocial Security WorksStudent Loan JusticeRoots ActionPeople’s ActionThe Progressive Change Campaign CommitteeMoney on the LeftJolt ActionOur RevolutionScholars for Social Justice More