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    How the Iowa Caucuses Work: A Guide to the Process

    To people accustomed to voting in primaries by walking into a polling site, privately completing a ballot and walking out — which is to say, most of the country — caucuses may seem bewildering.They certainly did to Mary Doyle when she went to her first caucus more than 20 years ago, after moving to Iowa from Illinois. “I had no clue what was going on,” she said. “It was all brand-new. These people get up and talk, and everybody’s talking, and I didn’t know anybody.”Like many Iowans, Ms. Doyle — who will be a precinct captain for former President Donald J. Trump at a caucus site in western Des Moines on Monday night — came to love the caucus process, with its open expression of candidate preferences and attempts at last-minute persuasion.Caucuses also have their critics, who note that the process makes voting inaccessible for some people and tends to lead to lower turnout than primaries. But love them or hate them, they are still happening. At 7 p.m. Central time, caucusgoers will gather — if they are not deterred by the bitter cold — in schools, community centers and other sites across the state.Here is a step-by-step guide to how the caucuses will work.ArrivalVoters will arrive at their designated caucus site and sign in. Workers will check each person’s ID and voter registration. While only registered Republicans can participate, people are allowed to register or change their party affiliation on the spot.If the campaigns are well organized, each candidate will have a captain on site at each precinct, and that captain may hand out stickers, hats or other swag to supporters as they arrive — a sort of visual display of the strength of that candidate’s support.MinglingAs people wait for the caucus to formally begin, caucusgoers can talk among themselves. Especially in small communities, many of them will know each other, and many of them will start discussing their candidate preferences. They may try to persuade one another if they see an opening.Cody Hoefert, a precinct captain in Rock Rapids for Ron DeSantis who has served as a captain in many election cycles and is a former co-chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, said he would be striking up conversations, looking for people who were undecided or not firmly committed to their choice, and giving them his pitch for Mr. DeSantis.Proceedings beginThe caucus will be called to order, and the caucusgoers’ first order of official business will be to elect a chair to oversee the proceedings.SpeechesA representative for each candidate — generally, precinct captains chosen in advance by the campaigns — will have a chance to give a short speech. Time restrictions can vary from site to site, generally from two to five minutes.This is the part of the process that most distinguishes caucuses from primaries: Participants are, up until the very last moment, actively trying to recruit more people to their side. While most voters are likely to have made up their minds, some may wait to make a final decision until they hear the speeches, and — you never know — some may be leaning toward one candidate but be swayed by a particularly persuasive speech.VotingPaper ballots will be distributed, and people will cast their votes.The votes will be counted on-site right away. The captains will observe the counting process and flag any problems that they see, and regular caucusgoers are allowed to watch as well. The results will be announced out loud and then sent to the state party.The state party will tabulate results from all the precincts and release the statewide totals to the public. More

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    Pritzker Is Among Democrats Making Case for Biden in Iowa

    All the political action in Iowa may be among Republicans, but President Biden’s campaign sought on Monday to get a piece of the action, sending three top surrogates to Des Moines to promote his agenda and trash his potential opponents.Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, Senator Tina Smith of Minnesota and Jeffrey Katzenberg, a Hollywood megadonor and a campaign co-chairman, all made their case for re-electing Mr. Biden before a dozen TV cameras and a gaggle of journalists in a conference room at the Iowa Events Center.Mr. Pritzker said there was no difference between former President Donald J. Trump and his G.O.P. rivals, Ms. Smith warned that Republicans would ban abortion nationwide if they won back the White House and Mr. Katzenberg did a victory lap on the campaign’s latest fund-raising announcement.“Tonight’s contest is simply a contest of whether you like MAGA in its original packaging or in high heels or with lifts in their boots,” Mr. Pritzker said, jabbing at Nikki Haley, the former South Carolina governor who quipped during a debate about wearing heels, and at Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, who has been suspected of wearing lifts in his shoes.Beyond cracks about the Republican candidates’ footwear, the Biden surrogates did not share much new information about the re-election campaign or the president’s thinking. Mr. Pritzker fended off questions about immigration policy and the Supreme Court case concerning Mr. Trump’s eligibility to be on the ballot, while Mr. Katzenberg declined to engage in a debate over whether the Biden campaign is too focused on coastal supporters.Instead, they sought to convey their argument that the future of the nation would be at risk if Mr. Trump were re-elected.“The campaign is running an operation like our democracy depends on it,” Mr. Katzenberg said. “Because in some respect it does.” More

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    My Iowa: Covering the Caucuses as a Native or a Newcomer

    One of our reporters grew up in Iowa City and was inspired to become a journalist after witnessing the caucuses in action. Another touched down here for the first time two months ago. They compared notes.KELLEN BROWNING If you were trying to think of a city that feels like the polar opposite of San Francisco, Des Moines would be a pretty good bet.When I learned in November that I had two weeks to pack up my life in the Bay Area and move to Iowa for the winter to report on the Iowa caucuses, I called up Sydney Ember, a colleague who drew this assignment four years ago, for advice. She reassured me that driving in the snow would be easy, and said she had almost died only three times on the icy roads during her time in Iowa covering the 2020 Democratic primary race.Armed with that comforting knowledge — and some new coats — I took off for Des Moines. In just six short weeks, I’ve driven more than 3,400 miles in my rental car, attended rallies for all of the leading candidates and spoken with dozens of voters. But while I was moonlighting as an Iowan, one of my colleagues on staff is the real thing.Anjali Huynh, a politics reporter who grew up in Iowa City, has watched all of us reporters try to become Iowa experts, and — I can only imagine — rolled her eyes at our inability to blend in with the locals. As I prepared to wrap up my stint here, I wanted to chat with a real Iowan about her state, and share some of what I have learned.Here’s our conversation.ANJALI HUYNH What was your reaction when you first heard that you were going to be sent to Des Moines, somewhere you haven’t been before?KELLEN I have not spent time in the Midwest, so I was looking forward to it, but I also just had no idea what to expect. In my head I had visions of cornfields and flat terrain, a stark contrast to the slopes of San Francisco. When I first got out here, my first impression of downtown Des Moines was: “Wow, it’s so quiet. I guess people are just at home because it’s kind of cold out.” But Iowa is simply a much more sparsely populated state, and I soon came to realize that’s just how it was.ANJALI How cold was it?KELLEN It was like 40 degrees, which I now view as warm. But, I’m curious: What has it been like for you, who grew up in Iowa City, seeing people like me parachute in?ANJALI It’s been very odd. Part of why I got into journalism was because of the caucuses. In 2016, the first event I ever attended was for Senator Bernie Sanders in my hometown, because I heard that Josh Hutcherson, the guy who plays Peeta in “The Hunger Games,” was going to campaign alongside him.I was 14. I remember being in awe of how many people were there, all to see this guy from Vermont. That was the first time I realized the power that Iowa had in drawing all these candidates here.Campaign signs in Des Moines, where Asa Hutchinson, a long-shot Republican presidential candidate, spoke over the weekend. Hilary Swift for The New York TimesSo in 2020, ahead of the Democratic primary, I persuaded a local newsmagazine to let me follow the candidates. I went to the Iowa State Fair for them, and while covering the candidates, I remember seeing all the national journalists and the way they were talking about and ramming past fairgoers, and just feeling frustrated. I knew that if I made it to some sort of a national stage, I wanted to do it better, to talk about Iowans not just using tropes, but making sure I actually understood why they believed what they believed.KELLEN That’s something I have tried to do by having the opportunity to be on the ground here for six weeks. ANJALI Is there anything that surprised you about Iowa?KELLEN I truly did not realize the whole “Iowa Nice” thing was real. Campaign operatives or strategists who have been doing this for a long time have asked me, “Oh, did you bring mittens? Do you need them?”But Anjali, I wanted to ask what you’re expecting from the caucuses today. What do you make of the process in general?ANJALI I’m still talking to a lot of voters who are undecided. I’ve been covering Vivek Ramaswamy over the last week, and I’ve encountered so many people at his events who say they’re between him and any number of other candidates. Many Iowans wait until the last second to decide whom they’re going to support, so those final pitches do matter.There are a lot of issues with the caucuses; the fact that they’re at a very set time, on a certain day, in person, does make them inaccessible to some people.But there’s a certain beauty about seeing the process unfold, seeing neighbors who really value this process come together and convince one another to support a particular candidate. Iowa has a more diverse array of perspectives than it gets credit for — there aren’t just farmers here — and you can especially see that during the caucuses.Vivek Ramaswamy at an event last week in Des Moines. Hilary Swift for The New York TimesKELLEN My biggest takeaway is that I’ve really enjoyed talking to voters face-to-face who take this very seriously and take their civic responsibility very seriously. And they’re willing to talk to the media.I was speaking with these two couples in Sioux Center the other day after a Trump rally, and they said: “You know, we don’t really like The New York Times very much. We don’t trust it.” We had a 20-minute conversation. I was explaining where the media was coming from: We report the truth. Our stories are accurate. And they said, essentially, “The media has lost the trust of people” and they’re relying more on what they see around them, and on alternative news sources, like Tucker Carlson.There’s this divide now in the country about what is factual, and that makes it very hard to get through to people. But I appreciate that we were able to talk face-to-face about this rather than through a screen.ANJALI Do you have any funny moments from the trail?KELLEN The funniest moment for me was a question from a 10-year-old girl from Nebraska who asked Vivek Ramaswamy, if he became president, whether he would ask China’s leader, Xi Jinping, for a giant panda for her zoo. And he said he would try.ANJALI What about general Iowa highlights?KELLEN Going for runs around Gray’s Lake in Des Moines. There are some incredible sunsets in Iowa. There are several great bridges in Des Moines that light up at night. Some of the food has been really good.A bridge over Gray’s Lake in Des Moines, where Kellen Browning went on runs during his stint in Iowa.Kellen Browning/The New York TimesEven when campaign events took me to rural parts of the state, I found them charming. The Fruited Plain Café in downtown Sioux Center, for instance, is a cozy place to take refuge from the cold. And at one point, I accidentally drove into Nebraska. Anjali, what’s your favorite place in Iowa that’s not Iowa City?ANJALI Dubuque in the fall is beautiful. Last time I went, they had a winter market going on.KELLEN I’ll have to come back at a time when it’s not negative 18 degrees outside. More

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    Campaigns Battle Cold and Complacency in Final Turnout Push in Iowa

    Republicans once had high hopes for turnout in Monday’s caucuses. But the brutal weather and Donald Trump’s dominance have cooled predictions.Nikki Haley’s team predicts Iowans will brave brutal weather to caucus for her. Aides to Ron DeSantis say the subzero temperatures give their candidate an edge because he has the biggest team knocking on doors. And the Trump team says they don’t worry about the cold — former President Donald J. Trump’s supporters will “walk through glass” to caucus for him.The truth: No one really knows what to expect on Monday night when Iowans become the first to weigh in on the 2024 presidential election. An already unpredictable and quirky process is even more so this year, thanks to dangerously cold weather and an unusually uncompetitive contest.Until recently, both the Trump and DeSantis teams had been privately preparing for an enormous turnout of more than 200,000 caucusgoers, a figure that would eclipse the party’s previous record of 187,000 in 2016. But as the winter storm blew in last week, nobody from any of the leading campaigns wanted to attach their names to a firm prediction.The National Weather Service forecast subzero temperatures in Des Moines, with wind chills dropping to as low as minus 30 degrees on Monday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Republican Presidential Primary: 7 Numbers That Tell the Story

    There’s $46,499,124.63. There’s 3 percent. Here are five other figures that shed light on the dynamics at play before Monday’s caucuses.The only numbers that will truly matter in the Iowa caucuses on Monday will be the number of votes tallied for Donald J. Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley and Vivek Ramaswamy.But there are a number of, well, numbers that help explain the Republican nominating contest. In most polls, Mr. Trump holds a solid lead, while Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are battling it out far behind in a fight for second place.Here are seven numbers that show how we got here — and what comes next.28 percentage pointsMr. Trump’s lead in the Iowa Poll The bar has been set.In the Iowa Poll released on Saturday evening by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom, Mr. Trump was winning 48 percent of likely caucusgoers. It’s a dominant showing that’s more than the total support measured for Ms. Haley (20 percent) and Mr. DeSantis (16 percent) combined.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Trump Far Ahead, With Haley Edging DeSantis for Second, Key Iowa Poll Finds

    Donald J. Trump has the backing of 48 percent of likely caucusgoers ahead of Monday’s election, a commanding lead for the former president, according to the Iowa Poll by The Des Moines Register, NBC News and Mediacom.Nikki Haley is narrowly leading the battle for second place over Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, 20 percent to 16 percent, according to the survey, which was released on Saturday evening.The poll shows Ms. Haley, the former United Nations ambassador, improving compared with December and Mr. Trump slipping — but only marginally. He enjoys a 28-point lead, compared with a 32-point advantage last month.The survey has almost nothing but good news for the former president. He leads with every demographic group tested, performing most strongly among those without a college degree, those earning less than $50,000 and men who did not graduate from college. He pulled in the support of roughly three in five voters in those three categories.His supporters were also more enthusiastic about voting than either of his rivals’, and Ms. Haley’s enthusiasm levels were markedly below his — and even below those of Mr. DeSantis.And Mr. Trump is ahead by so much that his support is greater than what Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis are garnering — combined.More than two-thirds of voters said they had made up their minds, while only 7 percent said they did not yet have a first-choice candidate on the cusp of the caucuses. One in four likely caucusgoers said they could still be persuaded to pick a new candidate.The survey, which has taken on an almost mythic status in some political circles, immediately forms the new base line of expectations for the caucuses on Monday. All three leading candidates have been not just fighting to win the most votes in recent days but also to dampen how well they are expected to perform in order to claim a stronger-than-expected showing.No other candidate was above single digits, with Vivek Ramaswamy, a businessman who has aligned himself with Mr. Trump and has campaigned heavily in Iowa, at 8 percent. The caucuses are not limited to Republicans — both independent voters and Democrats can vote in the election, if they re-register as Republicans on caucus night.One of the survey’s more striking findings is that roughly half of Ms. Haley’s support is coming from independents (39 percent) and Democrats (11 percent).Ms. Haley’s strongest demographic groups are no surprise — those who live in suburbs and white women with college degrees — but even among those constituencies she does not lead Mr. Trump.Historically, one of the most important groups in Iowa Republican caucuses are evangelical voters, and Mr. Trump leads among those voters widely, with 51 percent. Mr. DeSantis is a distant second with 22 percent, but that is actually lower than his support level among that demographic in the December survey. Ms. Haley is pulling only 12 percent among evangelical voters.The poll — conducted by J. Ann Selzer from Jan. 7 to 12, with a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points — comes during an unusual cold snap even for Iowa.The weather has made turnout predictions on Monday especially volatile. The Trump, DeSantis and Haley campaigns have been studying the impact of the storm for any potential advantage, with unaligned political strategists calling the cold — with subzero highs for the day — an unusual test of both natural enthusiasm and organizational might in the race’s final days.“You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history but maybe that’s good, because our people are more committed than anybody else,” Mr. Trump said in a video announcing that he was canceling some of his weekend’s events.The poll does show an enthusiasm edge for Mr. Trump. He has the largest share of enthusiastic supporters, with 49 percent saying they are extremely enthusiastic and 39 percent very enthusiastic.In comparison, Ms. Haley’s backers were far less excited. Only 9 percent said they were extremely enthusiastic to support her, and 30 percent very enthusiastic.Ms. Selzer told The Des Moines Register that the low levels of enthusiasm for Ms. Haley “are on the edge of jaw-dropping.”There is one strong result in the poll for Mr. DeSantis on a caucus night expected to set records for its cold temperatures: His supporters were the most likely to say they will definitely caucus, with 62 percent saying so, slightly above the numbers for Mr. DeSantis or Ms. Haley.In the previous Iowa Poll, in December, Mr. Trump was the first choice of a 51 percent majority of likely caucusgoers, and leading among every demographic group. He was dominating by an even wider margin among first-time caucusgoers, with 63 percent support.Mr. Trump had grown from 42 percent in August, 43 percent in October and 51 percent in December, and dipped for the first time to 48 percent in the new poll. Mr. DeSantis had previously stayed relatively steady: 19 percent in August, 16 percent in October and then 19 percent again in December. He dropped back to 16 percent in this latest survey.Ms. Haley began far behind, with 6 percent in August, but she is the only candidate who has not dropped since. She rose to 16 percent in October, stayed at 16 percent in December and hit a new high of 20 percent in this survey. More

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    In Iowa, Nikki Haley Has the Attention of Democrats and Independents

    Ms. Haley has attracted the interest of non-Republicans who say they’ll caucus for her, as rivals attack her for an insufficiently conservative message.With temperatures threatening to dip below zero in Iowa on Monday, some of the voters preparing to caucus for Nikki Haley have already overcome a different hurdle: a long history of voting for Democrats.At recent campaign events across Iowa, a number of Democrats and left-leaning independents said they saw Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, as a reasonable Republican who could move the country away from bitter partisanship and restore civility in national discourse. Many were drawn to her pledges to unite the country, and to work across the aisle on thorny issues such as abortion. Others are simply motivated by a fear of former President Donald J. Trump’s candidacy and the possibility that he will beat President Biden and regain the White House.Joseph E. Brown Sr., who served two terms as an Iowa state senator in the 1970s and ’80s, said he was a registered Democrat for 50 years until he switched parties last month so that he could caucus for Ms. Haley.“Now that I have my Republican card, I have to go visit my father’s gravesite here in town and apologize,” said Mr. Brown, who lives in Clinton, Iowa. He added that his father, a staunch Democrat and World War II veteran, always voted a straight party ticket.Mr. Brown’s one complaint about Ms. Haley is that she tends to echo misleading claims from Republican lawmakers on the number of agents from the Internal Revenue Service auditing middle-class families. But he said he appreciated her stalwart support for aiding both Ukraine and Israel, and her promises to lower the national debt and make the federal government more efficient. He praised her measured approach toward Mr. Trump — calling out the “chaos” that trails him without attacking him on specifics — and even agreed with her support for pardoning the former president if he is found guilty of crimes.“I’m not opposed to Joe Biden,” he said. “But out of all the Republican candidates, she is the one that strikes me as someone who can rebuild the office of the presidency.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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    Here Comes Trump, the Abominable Snowman

    It’s the latest hot TV genre: a woman in a frigid outpost, bundled in puffy outerwear, trying to uncover truths buried in ice.In the new season of HBO’s “True Detective,” Jodie Foster is a cop trudging through snow trying to solve a murder in a remote Alaska town, described as “the end of the world.” On FX’s “A Murder at the End of the World,” Emma Corrin is an amateur sleuth trudging through snow trying to solve a murder in an isolated retreat in Iceland.And now I find myself in puffy outerwear, trudging through snow in glacial Iowa, trying to uncover truths buried in the ice.I don’t have as much of a mystery to unravel as the TV detectives. The only thing the horde of reporters here is trying to figure out is if Donald Trump will win the caucuses on Monday with a plurality or if he can pull off a majority. No one is expecting a Jimmy Carter/Barack Obama-style upset.A blizzard on Friday froze the action. Drivers skidded all over Des Moines, with cars abandoned on highways. Candidates canceled events and scrambled to do telephone town halls. CNN’s Jeff Zeleny donned fleece earmuffs for live reports. Journalists planning to arrive this weekend faced canceled flights. With Trump and the others scrapping in-person rallies, reporters were left jaw-jawing with one another in the lobbies of the Hotel Fort Des Moines and the downtown Marriott.On Friday evening, Trump posted a video, accusingly telling Iowa, “You have the worst weather, I guess, in recorded history.” Maybe he should have gotten here earlier instead of haranguing the judge in his New York fraud trial on Thursday.Candidates’ surrogates resorted to extreme measures. Kari Lake, stumping for Trump in a yellow sweater — a Hawkeye color for her alma mater — joked that they would use “the ancient strategy” of the telephone to reach voters.Campaign aides to Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley were desperately calculating if the weather could give them an advantage: Maybe some of Trump’s older voters in rural areas who have to drive a long way to caucus would not show up on Monday, which could be the coldest day in caucus history, with wind chills potentially hitting 40 below.But the Trump crew here — including Donald Trump Jr. and Jason Miller — roamed around looking sanguine. “We’re confident, not cocky,” Miller told me.Compared with the poor ground game Trump Sr. had in 2016, when he came in second to “Lyin’ Ted” Cruz, as he called him, MAGA world is a model of organization. And that should frighten Democrats.“If you didn’t know any better, you’d think that our grass-roots guys had all been media trained,” Miller said. “Some of these people, because they watch everything the president does, they know any question. It doesn’t matter about whether it be the economy, Biden, witch hunt, Austin.” As in Lloyd. And “the president” Miller refers to is Trump.With a snow day here, I had time to contemplate the real mystery of Iowa: What has happened to America?In January 2008, the Democratic caucuses offered a thrilling contest. In overwhelmingly white Iowa, Barack Obama showed that Americans could propel a Black candidate into the Oval Office. Race was, remarkably, not a big factor in the contest.When I saw Obama at his first event in New Hampshire after his Iowa win, I was still stunned at the result. “Wow,” I said to him. “You really did it.”He looked solemn and a bit blank, recalling the scene in “The Candidate” when Robert Redford, the young, charismatic pol, pulls off an upset over his more seasoned, status quo opponent and murmurs, “What do we do now?”It felt then as if we were embracing modernity and inclusion, moving away from the image of John Wayne’s America.How could we have gone from such a hopeful moment to such a discordant one?Of course, every time there’s a movement, there’s a countermovement, where people feel that their place in the world is threatened and they want to turn back the clock. Trump has played on that resentment, trying to drag us into the past, curtailing women’s rights, inflaming voters to “take back America” and, as he said on Jan. 6, exhorting his base to “fight like hell” or “you’re not going to have a country anymore.”Trump is a master at exploiting voters’ fears. I’m puzzled about why his devoted fans don’t mind his mean streak. He can gleefully, cruelly, brazenly make fun of disabilities in a way that had never been done in politics — President Biden’s stutter, John McCain’s injuries from being tortured, a Times reporter’s disability — and loyal Trump fans laugh. He calls Haley “Birdbrain.” Trump is 77, yet he sees himself as a spring chicken. On Thursday, he put out a video on Truth Social mocking the “White House senior living” center, featuring pictures of the 81-year-old Biden looking helpless and out of it.Obama’s triumph in Iowa was about having faith in humanity. If Trump wins here, it will be about tearing down faith in humanity.That it’s happening in a blizzard is fitting. Trump’s whole life has been a snow job.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Instagram, TikTok, X and Threads. More