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      Four Takeaways From the DeSantis-Crist Debate in Florida’s Governor Race

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      Gov. Ron DeSantis and Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger, debated for the only time in the Florida governor’s race on Monday, a rowdy exchange featuring a raucous crowd and a slew of culture war issues that have dominated the state’s political discourse.Mr. Crist, a former congressman and governor with plenty of debate experience, gave a polished performance as he went on the attack. But no single moment from Mr. Crist seemed like it would upend the dynamics of the contest. Public polls show Mr. DeSantis, a Republican, comfortably ahead in the race, a rarity for Florida, which until recently had some of the tightest contests in the nation.The debate, initially scheduled for Oct. 12, was postponed because of Hurricane Ian, a destructive Category 4 storm that struck Southwest Florida on Sept. 28, killing more than 100 people.The moderator, Liz Quirantes of WPEC, struggled to keep quiet the audience in Fort Pierce, which regularly applauded, cheered, jeered and interrupted the exchanges. Some of Ms. Quirantes’s questions, which she said came from viewers, appeared to be leading the candidates toward conservative points of view. WPEC is a CBS affiliate owned by the Sinclair Broadcast Group.Here are four takeaways:The DeSantis White House speculation isn’t going away.Mr. Crist repeatedly cast Mr. DeSantis as more interested in running for president in 2024 than in governing Florida.“Governor DeSantis has taken his eye off the ball,” Mr. Crist said, accusing the governor of focusing on national issues and fund-raising outside the state. (Mr. DeSantis has far out-raised Mr. Crist.)Twice, Mr. Crist asked Mr. DeSantis point-blank if he would serve a full, four-year term if re-elected. Mr. DeSantis ignored the question as the moderator noted that the candidates had agreed not to ask each other questions.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.A G.O.P. Advantage: Republicans appear to be gaining an edge in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress. Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst, explains why the mood of the electorate has shifted.Ohio Senate Race: Tim Ryan, the Democrat who is challenging J.D. Vance, has turned the state into perhaps the country’s unlikeliest Senate battleground.Losing Faith in the System: As democracy erodes in Wisconsin, many of the state’s citizens feel powerless. But Republicans and Democrats see different culprits and different risks.Secretary of State Races: Facing G.O.P. candidates who spread lies about the 2020 election, Democrats are outspending them 57-to-1 on TV ads for their secretary of state candidates. It still may not be enough.“The only worn-out old donkey I’m looking to put out to pasture is Charlie Crist,” Mr. DeSantis said.The governor frequently turned his attention to President Biden, the Democrat he would most likely challenge if he were to seek the presidency, and tried to tie him to Mr. Crist. Mr. Biden’s approval rating is underwater in Florida, though the president still plans to travel to the state to rally for Mr. Crist and other Democrats next week.“Charlie Crist has voted with Joe Biden 100 percent of the time to give us these inflationary policies and to drive up the costs of everything that we’re doing,” Mr. DeSantis said.The partisan crowd was raucous inside the debate on Monday night, as well as outside the theater beforehand.Marco Bello/ReutersThe death toll from Hurricane Ian became a sticking point.At least 114 people died because of Hurricane Ian in Florida, making it the deadliest storm in the state in almost 90 years. Many of the dead were older or vulnerable people who became trapped in their homes or cars and drowned. The New York Times found that Lee County, home to the hard-hit city of Fort Myers, did not follow its own plans for evacuating people ahead of the hurricane.Mr. Crist accused Mr. DeSantis of not using his bully pulpit to encourage people to get out before the storm made landfall — and noted that more than 82,000 Floridians have died during the coronavirus pandemic under Mr. DeSantis’s watch.“Whether it comes to Covid or it comes to the hurricane, Ron ignored science,” Mr. Crist said.Mr. DeSantis countered that evacuations are mandated by county officials and not by the state. “Our message was, ‘Listen to your locals,’” he said. “It’s ultimately a local decision. But I stand by every one of our local counties.”Neither Mr. DeSantis nor Mr. Crist answered the question about whether there should be limits on construction along the Florida coast given the increase in the frequency and intensity of hurricanes. Mr. Crist blamed Mr. DeSantis for allowing the state’s property insurance market to fray; Mr. DeSantis countered that insurance rates had risen because of excessive lawsuits.DeSantis made false and misleading statements about abortion.It was clear from the start that Mr. Crist was eager to talk about abortion, one of Democrats’ preferred topics in an otherwise unfavorable election cycle. The first question was about housing policy, but he began by saying the election was “a stark contrast between somebody who believes in a woman’s right to choose” and Mr. DeSantis, who signed a 15-week abortion ban that, Mr. Crist emphasized, includes no exceptions for rape and incest.Later, asked whether abortion should be banned after a specific week in pregnancy, Mr. DeSantis made a number of false or misleading claims.He accused Mr. Crist of supporting abortion “up until the moment of birth.” That is a common Republican claim, but abortion until the moment of birth doesn’t exist, even in states without gestational limits. He also said Mr. Crist supported “dismemberment abortions,” a pejorative term for procedures performed later in pregnancy that, when they do happen, are often prompted by medical emergencies or severe fetal abnormalities. (More than 92 percent of abortions in the United States are performed much earlier, in the first trimester.)‘Culture war’ issues took up a lot of bandwidth.More than perhaps any other sitting governor, Mr. DeSantis has used issues like race and transgender rights to stir up his conservative base.That was on display in Monday’s debate, in which he gave a graphic and inaccurate description of gender-affirming care for transgender children, suggesting falsely that doctors were “mutilating” minors. In reality, gender-affirming care — which major medical associations, including pediatric associations, endorse — primarily involves social support, nonpermanent treatments like puberty blockers (which Mr. DeSantis also denounced), and hormonal treatments.Mr. Crist responded by bringing the topic, once again, back to abortion: “This reminds me of your position on a woman’s right to choose,” he said. “You think you know better than any physician or any doctor or any woman in a position to make decisions about their own personal health.”In a segment on education, Mr. DeSantis also repeated his frequent claims that Democrats like Mr. Crist want to teach white children to view themselves as oppressors because of their race. He acknowledged that it was important for history curriculums to include “all of American history,” including slavery and segregation, but said: “I’m proud of our history. I don’t want to teach kids to hate our country.”Mr. Crist scoffed at the idea that children were being taught to hate themselves or each other, saying, “I don’t know where you get that idea” — and then accusing Mr. DeSantis of focusing on the issue to avoid talking about abortion. More

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      DeSantis and Crist Will Debate

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      The first and only debate between Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, a Republican, and Charlie Crist, his Democratic challenger, will go forward on Monday as in-person early voting begins in some of the state’s biggest counties.The debate, initially scheduled for Oct. 12, was postponed because of Hurricane Ian, a destructive Category 4 storm that struck Southwest Florida on Sept. 28, killing more than 100 people. The hurricane led Mr. DeSantis to ease election rules for the three hardest-hit counties — Lee, Charlotte and Sarasota — to allow large polling places, extend early voting and permit voters to request that mail-in ballots be sent to different addresses from the one kept on file, actions that contrasted with his overall push for more rigid voting policies in Florida.Mr. DeSantis, whose national profile has turned him into a 2024 Republican presidential contender in waiting, has far out-raised and outspent Mr. Crist in television ads. Public opinion polls have consistently showed Mr. DeSantis leading the race.Mr. Crist, a former governor and U.S. lawmaker, has cast his opponent as a divisive culture warrior and campaigned hard against the 15-week abortion ban that Mr. DeSantis signed into law in April. But he has struggled to shake up the contest in his favor.The debate, in Fort Pierce, Fla., is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. Eastern. It will be live streamed on C-SPAN. New York Times reporters will offer live updates and analysis. More

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      Tom Brady and Ron DeSantis Are Said to Be on Texting Terms

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      OCONOMOWOC, Wis. — Tom Brady, the seven-time Super Bowl champion, has for years been the subject of public affection from former President Donald J. Trump.But according to Tim Michels, the Republican nominee for Wisconsin governor, Mr. Brady is now on texting terms with another Republican seen as a White House contender: Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.Mr. DeSantis attended a Green Bay Packers football game last month and spent part of the game texting with Mr. Brady, according to Mr. Michels, who hosted the Florida governor in Green Bay and told supporters in Wisconsin last week about their time together. Mr. Brady first expressed support for Mr. Trump in 2015, when he was quarterback of the New England Patriots. He signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in 2020.“I took Governor DeSantis to the Packer game at Lambeau Field,” Mr. Michels told a gathering of the Lake Country Patriots, a far-right group, on Thursday at a brewery in Oconomowoc, Wis. The New York Times was denied entry to the publicly advertised event, but obtained a recording of Mr. Michels’s remarks.Mr. DeSantis, who on the day of the Packers game had appeared at a rally for Mr. Michels and Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin, “had never been to Lambeau Field before and he wanted to go,” Mr. Michels said. “We’re sitting there, you know, we’re watching the game and all of a sudden, I look over and he’s texting and he says, ‘How do you spell Lambeau?’”More on Ron DeSantis and His AdministrationReshaping Florida: Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, has turned the swing state into a right-wing laboratory by leaning into cultural battles.Voter Fraud: A crackdown on voter fraud announced by Mr. DeSantis seems to have ensnared former felons who were puzzled that they were accused of violating voting laws.Migrant Flights: The governor’s move to fly migrants to Martha’s Vineyard from Texas, which appears to be part of a political strategy to lay the groundwork for a 2024 presidential bid, is under criminal investigation.Heir to Trump?: Mr. DeSantis has been signaling his desire to take over former President Donald J. Trump’s political movement. But is that what Republican voters want?Mr. Michels continued: “I say, ‘Who are you texting with?’ He says, ‘I’m texting with Tom Brady.’ The governor of Florida gets to text with Tom Brady.”Mr. Michels added, “I’m hoping that when I’m governor of Wisconsin, I can text Aaron Rodgers,” the longtime Packers quarterback.What Mr. DeSantis and Mr. Brady were discussing by text, beyond the governor’s location at that moment, remains a mystery. Representatives for Mr. Brady did not respond to requests for comment. A DeSantis spokeswoman declined to comment.There’s a bit to unpack here.In September 2015, Mr. Brady was among the first mainstream celebrities to promote Mr. Trump’s presidential candidacy. He was spotted with a red “Make America Great Again” hat in his locker and said “it would be great” if Mr. Trump, a longtime golfing partner, took the White House.But Mr. Brady — perhaps at the suggestion of his wife, Gisele Bündchen, who said she and her husband did not vote for Mr. Trump in 2016 — later kept his distance. When the Patriots won the Super Bowl in 2017, Mr. Brady did not attend the subsequent reception at the White House.Mr. Brady and Ms. Bündchen have in recent weeks reportedly hired divorce lawyers.Then there’s the idea that Mr. DeSantis, a Harvard- and Yale-educated former college athlete who has privately teased a 2024 presidential run, needed help spelling the name of the most storied stadium in the National Football League — and a hallowed place for many voters in a critical presidential battleground state. At least Mr. DeSantis didn’t need help pronouncing Lambeau, a name that has tripped up past presidential aspirants.For Mr. Michels, whose campaign also did not respond to inquiries about his remarks, it is good but perhaps risky politics to seek a friendship with Mr. Rodgers, himself a Super Bowl-winning quarterback (albeit only once, to the consternation of much of Wisconsin) who is unquestionably the most popular figure in the state.Mr. Rodgers, like Mr. Brady, has dabbled in politics with some complications. In 2011, he supported unionized public school teachers in their fight with Gov. Scott Walker. Later, he said the quarterback Colin Kaepernick belonged in the N.F.L. after Mr. Trump called for his banishment for kneeling during the pregame playing of the national anthem to protest police violence against Black people.But last year, Mr. Rodgers, who refused to be vaccinated against Covid, became a source of misinformation about the vaccines. That made him a hero to Wisconsin’s fellow vaccine skeptics, in particular Senator Johnson, who thanked him “for his courage in defending personal freedom and health autonomy.”This month, Mr. Johnson campaigned with Packers fans while wearing Mr. Rodgers’s jersey.Mr. Michels, who is locked in a tight battle with Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, was with Mr. Johnson outside Lambeau Field, though he was conspicuous in his lack of Packers gear. A local Democrat pointed out that Mr. Michels, a Wisconsin native who spent more than a decade living in Connecticut and Manhattan before moving back home to run for governor, was wearing a green vest that was the shade worn by the visiting Jets, not the hometown Packers. More

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      GOP Voter Fraud Crackdowns Falter as Charges Are Dropped in Florida and Texas

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      Dealing setbacks to Republican-led voter fraud prosecutions, judges in Florida and Texas this week dropped charges against two former felons who had been accused of casting ballots when they were not eligible to do so because of their status as offenders.Robert Lee Wood, one of those two felons, was part of an August roundup spearheaded by Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, a Republican, on voter fraud.On Friday, a circuit court judge in Miami-Dade County granted a motion to dismiss two felony charges related to voter fraud against Mr. Wood, 56, who spent two decades in prison for second-degree murder. Mr. Wood was among the 20 people who were recently arrested in Florida on voter fraud charges and became the first defendant to have them dropped.And on Monday, a district court judge in Texas set aside the indictment of Hervis Earl Rogers, a Houston man who gained widespread attention for waiting seven hours to vote during the 2020 primary election. Last year, Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general and a Republican, charged Mr. Rogers with voting illegally because he was on parole.A lack of evidence of widespread voter fraud has not stopped Republicans from aggressively pursuing it in states where they hold power. Now, the unraveling of the two high-profile cases has compromised the legitimacy of those efforts.Bryan Griffin, a spokesman for Mr. DeSantis, said in an email on Friday that the state disagreed with the dismissal of charges against Mr. Wood and would appeal the ruling.“The state will continue to enforce the law and ensure that murderers and rapists who are not permitted to vote do not unlawfully do so,” Mr. Griffin said. “Florida will not be a state in which elections are left vulnerable or cheaters unaccountable.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsBoth parties are making their final pitches ahead of the Nov. 8 election.Where the Election Stands: As Republicans appear to be gaining an edge with swing voters in the final weeks of the contest for control of Congress, here’s a look at the state of the races for the House and Senate.Biden’s Low Profile: President Biden’s decision not to attend big campaign rallies reflects a low approval rating that makes him unwelcome in some congressional districts and states.What Young Voters Think: Twelve Americans under 30, all living in swing states, told The Times about their political priorities, ranging from the highly personal to the universal.In Minnesota: The race for attorney general in the light-blue state offers a pure test of which issue is likely to be more politically decisive: abortion rights or crime.The ruling by Judge Milton Hirsch of the 11th Judicial Circuit was limited to jurisdictional issues and not Mr. Wood’s voting status. It said that state prosecutors did not have standing in what was a local criminal proceeding. The prosecutors had tried to argue that they did have jurisdiction, because Mr. Wood’s voter application and ballot were processed in another county.“Given that elections violations of this nature impact all Florida voters, elections officials, state government, and the integrity of our republic, we continue to view the Florida Office of Statewide Prosecution as the appropriate agency to prosecute these crimes,” Mr. Griffin said.Larry Davis, a lawyer for Mr. Wood, said in an interview on Friday that his client was approached in the summer of 2020 by a voter drive representative at a Miami-area Walmart asking if he wanted to register to vote.When Mr. Wood told the person that he was a convicted felon, the person said that a state constitutional amendment had restored voting rights to felons and so he filled out an application, according to Mr. Davis. The amendment, however, excluded people convicted of murder or felony sex offenses and required them to apply separately to have their rights reinstated.Mr. Wood received a voter card from the state six or seven weeks after filling out the application, said Mr. Davis, who described the dramatic scene when his client was arrested at 6 a.m. in August.“The house was surrounded with police that had automatic weapons,” Mr. Davis said. “They wouldn’t even let him get dressed and they took him to jail.”In Florida, a conviction of voter fraud requires proof of intent. Mr. Davis said “there’s absolutely no proof” that his client willfully broke the law.The legal setback for Mr. DeSantis, who is running for re-election in November and has White House ambitions, came days after the release of body camera footage from law enforcement officers in the Tampa area who carried out similar arrests. In the videos, the people arrested seemed puzzled and appeared to have run afoul of the law out of confusion rather than intent.Mr. Davis said that he had requested the body camera footage from Mr. Wood’s arrest, but had not yet received it.In the case of Mr. Rogers in Texas, Judge Lisa Michalk of the 221st District Court in Montgomery County, which is about 40 miles north of Houston, ruled on Monday that Mr. Paxton as Texas’s attorney general did not have the authority to independently prosecute criminal offenses under the Election Code.A spokeswoman for Mr. Paxton did not immediately respond to requests for comment on Friday.In a statement, Mr. Rogers expressed his relief that the indictment had been set aside.“I am thankful that justice has been done,” Mr. Rogers said. “It has been horrible to go through this, and I am so glad my case is over. I look forward to being able to get back to my life.”Tommy Buser-Clancy, senior staff attorney at the American Civil Liberties Union of Texas and one of the lawyers who represented Mr. Rogers, in a statement this week lamented what happened to Mr. Rogers.“He never should have been prosecuted in the first place, and this ruling allows him to put this traumatic ordeal behind him and move on with his life,” Mr. Buser-Clancy said. More

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      DeSantis Eases Election Rules for Counties Hit Hard By Hurricane

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      Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida said Thursday that the state would ease election rules for three counties that were the hardest hit by Hurricane Ian, allowing them to create “super polling” centers and to extend early voting by a couple of days.He signed an emergency order on Wednesday that will also allow voters in those counties in southwest Florida — Lee, Charlotte and Sarasota — to request by phone that their mail-in ballots be sent to a different address from the one kept on file.The move by Mr. DeSantis came two weeks after Hurricane Ian made landfall as a Category 4 storm along the Gulf Coast, leading to more than 100 deaths in Florida and to widespread destruction, including to early voting sites and Election Day precincts.Election officials expected that many of those sites would not be available, placing another burden on workers who had already been dealing with threats and misinformation.The order cited a dire situation in Lee County, where it said the county’s head of elections reported that only a few Election Day polling locations were viable after the storm.The Aftermath of Hurricane IanThe Victims: The storm, Florida’s deadliest since 1935, has been linked to the deaths of at least 119 people in the state. Many were at least 60, and dozens died by drowning.A Housing Crisis: As the extent of the damage from Ian comes into focus, many in Florida are uncertain of their next chapter, fearing they may become homeless.Uncertain Future: Older people displaced by Hurricane Ian are confronting a wrenching situation: At their age, remaking the lives they loved so much in Florida may not be possible.Lack of Insurance: In the Florida counties hit hardest by Ian, less than 20 percent of homes had flood insurance, new data show. Experts say that will make rebuilding harder.In addition to property damage, election officials in the state have said that their work is being hampered by the displacement of voters, a shortage of poll workers and disruptions to telecommunications and other utility services.Under the order, Lee, Charlotte and Sarasota Counties will be allowed to relocate and consolidate polling locations, creating what are known as “super polling” centers to serve displaced voters from precincts devastated by the storm.The order also authorizes the counties to offer early voting from Oct. 24 through Election Day, on Nov. 8. Previously, the cut off was Nov. 6. In an effort to recruit more trained poll workers in the three counties, the order will let those with experience from the 2020 election or who have worked in elections since then be eligible to do so again this November. State employees were also being encouraged by the governor’s office to serve as poll workers.For the three counties, Mr. DeSantis suspended a requirement that requests be made in writing for those who want mail-in ballots to be sent to a different address from the one on file for them. They can now make those requests by phone, but they will still be required to provide a driver’s license number, an ID card number or the last four digits of their Social Security number.He also lifted a restriction on the forwarding of mail-in ballots in the three counties.A similar order was signed after Hurricane Michael in 2018, when the governor at the time, Rick Scott, who is now a U.S. senator, relaxed voting rules in eight counties along the Panhandle.Mark S. Earley, the president of the statewide association of election supervisors, said in a statement on Thursday that while the governor’s order took somewhat longer to be issued than the one in 2018, it addressed the group’s concerns.“With this order, we have the flexibility needed to provide all voters with an accessible opportunity to vote and to have their voices heard through the ballot box, while maintaining the procedural integrity needed for those voters to have faith that the election is being conducted in a fair, impartial and secure manner,” said Mr. Earley, a top election official in Leon County, which was outside the hurricane’s direct path.The action by Mr. DeSantis, a Republican, to loosen these election rules for a few affected counties contrasted with his overall push for more rigid voting policies in Florida.Last year, Mr. DeSantis signed voting restrictions into law that limited the use of drop boxes where voters can deposit absentee ballots, and added more identification requirements for anyone requesting an absentee ballot. The law also requires voters to request absentee ballots for each two-year election cycle, rather than every four years.Democrats and civil liberties groups have criticized the 2021 restrictions, arguing that they make it more difficult for voters, particular those of color, to cast ballots.Mr. DeSantis, who is seeking re-election this year, also spearheaded the creation of a new state office of election crimes and security. In August, he announced that 17 people had been charged with casting illegal ballots in the 2020 election, in which 11.1 million Floridians voted.That initiative has also drawn some backlash, with critics saying that the vast majority of those charged were Black and that election officials had previously told them that they were eligible to vote. More

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      Christie, Recalling Sandy, Questions DeSantis’s Views on Hurricane Aid

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      Chris Christie, the former governor of New Jersey and a possible 2024 presidential candidate, is raising questions about how a fellow Republican with presidential ambitions plans to handle federal aid after a hurricane.In an interview last week, Mr. Christie noted that Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida had sought federal support for cleanup after Hurricane Ian — and could seek additional aid through a congressionally approved package — despite having voted against federal aid for Hurricane Sandy in New Jersey and other states when he was a member of Congress in 2013.“I remember at the time his argument was, ‘I won’t vote for this because they’re not paid for,’” Mr. Christie said of Mr. DeSantis’s approach to the funding for the Sandy aid package, which totaled nearly $10 billion. “I think those are symbolic votes and they feel like they can get away with those votes.”He questioned whether Mr. DeSantis would still maintain that a federal aid package must be clearly paid for now that he is managing the aftermath of Hurricane Ian. “I trust as governor that he’ll act like a governor and not like a congressman,” Mr. Christie said. “As a congressperson, you can sit down in Washington and make symbolic votes,” he added. “When you’re governor, you have to look eye to eye to the people who have lost everything.”It is not hard to imagine a scenario in which both Mr. Christie and Mr. DeSantis are candidates in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Neither has formally announced a candidacy. But Mr. Christie has made clear he is considering one, and Mr. DeSantis has become a focus of some Republican donors who are looking for an alternative to former President Donald J. Trump.A spokesman for Mr. DeSantis declined to respond directly to Mr. Christie’s remarks or to speak with a reporter by phone. He pointed to a list of actions the State of Florida took to address the storm’s impact and remarks the governor made on Fox News.“Nobody has done more to stand up to the administration than me in Florida over the last year and a half, as you know,” Mr. DeSantis said in the Fox News interview about his meeting with President Biden. “But you’ve got to be willing to work together to help folks.”Mr. Christie rejected comparisons between Mr. DeSantis’s meeting Mr. Biden and his own interactions with then-President Barack Obama during the Hurricane Sandy response in 2012, suggesting that the situation then was more intense and politically fraught. At the time, Mr. Obama was an incumbent president running against Mitt Romney, whom Mr. Christie had endorsed. Some Republicans close to Mr. Romney took issue with Mr. Christie for meeting with Mr. Obama, and Mr. Christie responded that he was doing what was right for his state.“It’s a whole different level of attention,” Mr. Christie said. “The level of pressure in 2012 was monumentally more, politically, than the level of pressure today.” More

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      Is Ron DeSantis as Strong a Potential Candidate as He Seems?

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      The Florida governor looks to be well positioned to head into a hypothetical presidential primary in 2024. But past Republican darlings rose just as fast — only to fall quickly.In March 2015, the Republican National Committee held a donor retreat in Boca Raton, Fla. The belle of the ball was a Republican governor with a penchant for owning the libs, delighting Fox News and playing bare-knuckle politics.One speaker, a New York real estate mogul widely seen as an unserious blowhard, drew eye rolls among those present as he groused about how the R.N.C. should have held the event at Mar-a-Lago, his private club just down the road.The governor, who was polling well in Iowa, was running for president on a simple platform: Your enemies are my enemies, too. Almost universally, pundits speculated that he would be the one to beat in a G.O.P. primary that would be dominated by cultural resentment and anger over the current president’s policies.Well, that governor, short on cash and charisma, flamed out months before any 2016 primaries were even held. His name was Scott Walker. And the real estate mogul who bored the crowd was, of course, Donald Trump.American politics is no longer as predictable as it once was. Each day seems to violate one bit of received wisdom or another. But Walker’s rise and fall nevertheless offers a cautionary tale for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, the current favorite to be the G.O.P. nominee in 2024.*“There are a lot of folks who have buzz right now,” said Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a social conservative organization in Iowa. “Will they have buzz a year from now?”Vander Plaats, who has met DeSantis and said he was well regarded within Iowa Republican political circles, added, “I would rather be peaking at this stage versus not peaking at all.”Charlie Sykes, a conservative former radio host in Wisconsin who now works at The Bulwark, a website that has become a refuge for anti-Trump Republicans, said that despite his image as a fighter, Walker in person was “quite genial.” In his memoirs, Walker said he rejected Sykes’s advice to be more of a political pugilist because it just wasn’t his style.The fundamental question for DeSantis — a more combative person in private as well as in public — Sykes said, was, “How does that personality scale up? How will that wear?”*Key caveat: in a hypothetical world where Trump doesn’t run.The DeSantis buzzOn paper, DeSantis has a lot going for him.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.He has amassed a campaign hoard worthy of Smaug, the dragon in “The Hobbit.” A stocky former college baseball player and officer with the Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps, he projects the sort of strength that plays well in Republican politics. And he emerged from the pandemic bolstered, on the right at least, by the perception that he navigated the coronavirus relatively successfully in defiance of experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci.In polls, DeSantis consistently rates as the second choice of Republican voters, behind Trump but well ahead of any putative rivals. And in focus groups, voters often describe him as “Trump without the baggage,” according to Sarah Longwell, a G.O.P. strategist who opposes Trump.Like Walker, though, DeSantis risks peaking too early. Walker’s operation made a strategic error early on by parking much of its cash in a 527 committee, a tax-exempt organization that was barred from certain campaign activities. When the money dried up in the summer of 2015, his official campaign had trouble paying for the extensive apparatus it had built in anticipation of better fund-raising success.The early infatuation of Republican voters (and pundits!) with shiny objects is a timeworn tradition, too. Remember Marco Rubio, the “Republican savior”? Rand Paul, “the most interesting man in politics”? Rick Perry, the hot stuff of the early 2012 hustings? And it remains to be seen whether DeSantis, a wooden speaker with a reputation for burning through his staff, has the personal skills to go the distance.In interviews, Republican strategists and donors said that DeSantis looked to be in a strong position for 2024. His home in Florida gives him access to a deep-pocketed donor community that Walker lacked, several noted. He’s won allies in the political influencer community on the right. And his ability to appeal to both the Trump and Mitch McConnell wings of the party affords him room for maneuver in a Republican Party divided between two mutually hostile camps.But everyone I interviewed emphasized that anything could happen. Several mentioned that they expected Trump to avoid announcing a re-election run as long as possible — freezing the potential G.O.P. field in place and, possibly, crippling any nascent campaign organizations they hope to build.That could spell trouble for DeSantis, despite his fund-raising prowess, since he currently lacks the sort of national political operation necessary to win a presidential nomination. Under campaign finance rules, DeSantis won’t be able to reallocate much of his 2022 hoard to any presidential campaign, either.“One big difference is Trump,” said Mike DuHaime, a former political adviser to Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who noted that the large G.O.P. field in 2016 was an important factor in that primary.But if Trump doesn’t run, he said, “I think a question for DeSantis is whether there will be other people in the same governors’ lane or ideological lane,” which could split the vote among similar candidates.DeSantis might also find, as Walker did before him, that being a governor has advantages and disadvantages. Just because donors gave to his re-election campaign does not mean they would necessarily finance a presidential run, for instance. And his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Ian will be scrutinized carefully for any signs of mismanagement or callousness.But on the positive side of the ledger, “being governor allowed him to strike a different path,” DuHaime said. “It gets you out of being a knee-jerk parrot for Trump, like many senators had to do.”Gov. Chris Christie with President Barack Obama in New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe Christie precedentFor DeSantis’s confidants — and, by most accounts, his wife, Casey, is his closest political adviser — the more salient cautionary tale is that of Christie.The former New Jersey governor decided not to run in 2012, when he was at the peak of his popularity. He waited instead until 2016, when he ran into a buzz saw named Trump, and has long regretted it.“You have a moment,” Casey DeSantis has told associates, according to my colleague Matt Flegenheimer. And the DeSantises apparently believe that moment is now.Christie is making noises about running again in 2024. He told a reporter this weekend, “I don’t care who else runs. If I decide I want to run, I’m running.”But his criticism of Trump could be fatal. Trump remains popular among Republican base voters: In the most recent New York Times/Siena poll, 53 percent of those who voted for him in 2020 said they had a “very favorable” opinion of him, and 36 percent said their opinion of him was “somewhat favorable.”When Christie recently defended the Justice Department’s search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump fired back by posting a mocking photo.One key lesson DeSantis seems to have learned from Christie’s defenestration: Don’t embrace a Democratic president, metaphorically or otherwise.Photos of Christie warmly welcoming President Barack Obama when the two met after Hurricane Sandy devastated the New Jersey coastline in 2012 were weaponized against him four years later — with a handshake morphing into a “hug” that helped doom him in the 2016 G.O.P. primary.When DeSantis met President Biden last week after Hurricane Ian wrecked much of the west coast of Florida, their body language was rather different — professional, but hardly warm.“Mr. President, welcome to Florida,” DeSantis said as he handed over the lectern at their joint news conference. “We appreciate working together across various levels of government, and the floor is yours.”If Biden had any inclination to embrace his potential rival, he betrayed none of that in his remarks.“We have very different political philosophies, but we’ve worked hand in glove,” Biden said. And when the president praised the governor’s recovery efforts as “pretty remarkable so far,” DeSantis offered only a polite smile.What to readHouse Republicans have only a dozen members of color, but they are fielding a slate of 67 Black, Latino, Asian or Native American candidates in November, by the party’s count. Jonathan Weisman spoke to many of them.In the two parties’ efforts to control Congress, New York has become surprisingly competitive. Nicholas Fandos writes about the districts that are in play.Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, has drawn attention to the Jewish religion of his opponent, Josh Shapiro. Katie Glueck examines the alarm among Jewish voters.The idea of sending migrants to left-leaning areas of the U.S. circulated in conservative circles for years. Maggie Haberman and Michael C. Bender look back at the traction it gained under Donald Trump and the path to Republican governors’ putting it into practice.With less than a month until Election Day, candidates are meeting for debates. Alyce McFadden breaks down what has taken place so far and how to watch the debates to come.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

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      in Elections

      DeSantis, Once a ‘No’ on Hurricane Aid, Petitions Biden for Assistance

      by

      As a freshman congressman in 2013, Ron DeSantis was unambiguous: A federal bailout for the New York region after Hurricane Sandy was an irresponsible boondoggle, a symbol of the “put it on the credit card mentality” he had come to Washington to oppose.“I sympathize with the victims,” he said. But his answer was no.Nearly a decade later, as his state confronts the devastation and costly destruction wrought by Hurricane Ian, Mr. DeSantis is appealing to the nation’s better angels — and betting on its short memory.“As you say, Tucker, we live in a very politicized time,” Mr. DeSantis, now Florida’s governor, told Tucker Carlson on Wednesday night, outlining his request for full federal reimbursement up front for 60 days and urging the Biden administration to do the right thing. “But you know, when people are fighting for their lives, when their whole livelihood is at stake, when they’ve lost everything — if you can’t put politics aside for that, then you’re just not going to be able to.”The tonal whiplash for Mr. DeSantis reflects a different job and a different moment — a Tea Party-era House Republican now steering a perennially storm-battered state dependent once more on federal assistance to rebuild. Yet even in the context of his term as governor, the hurricane has required Mr. DeSantis to test another gear.Gov. Ron DeSantis discussing Hurricane Ian on Monday in Largo, Fla. Since taking office, he has sought to position himself as a 2024 presidential contender.Chris O’Meara/Associated PressHe has, to date, often used his executive platform to elevate himself to Republican rock-stardom, positioning himself as a possible 2024 presidential contender with a series of policy gambits that can feel precision-engineered to maximize liberal outrage.His most recent stunt — flying undocumented Venezuelan immigrants from Texas to Martha’s Vineyard — reinforced that he is more than willing to turn the machinery of state against specific political targets. He has suggested that the next plane of immigrants might land near President Biden’s weekend home in Delaware.More on Hurricane IanOn the Ground: Before Hurricane Ian, Florida’s southwest coast was a place to escape the chaos. Now, the storm has turned the laid-back stretch of suburban shoreline into a strand of destruction.Lack of Insurance: In the Florida counties hit hardest by Hurricane Ian, fewer than 20 percent of homes had flood insurance, new data show. Experts say that will make rebuilding even harder.Ron DeSantis: The Florida governor, who as a congressman opposed aid to victims of Hurricane Sandy, is seeking relief from the Biden administration as Hurricane Ian ravages his own state.Air Travel: Ian’s effects on flying, in Florida and beyond, are likely to continue through the weekend. This is what to do if your plans are disrupted.The present circumstances have inspired a less swaggering posture toward a leader whom Mr. DeSantis has long called “Brandon” as a recurring troll, aimed at the man he might like to succeed. “Dear Mr. President,” the governor’s request for a major disaster declaration and federal assistance began on Wednesday.“Ironically,” said David Jolly, a former Republican congressman from Florida, “there’s nobody in America that Ron DeSantis needs more than Joe Biden.”More than that, Mr. Jolly said, a governor who self-identifies as unswerving in his principles now finds himself with little choice but to push for storm relief actions “antithetical to his professed ideology.”“He held those convictions strong in the House,” said Mr. Jolly, who has been sharply critical of the party in the Trump years. “I doubt he will hold them as strongly in the governor’s mansion.”In 2013, Mr. DeSantis and Representative Ted Yoho, another hard-line conservative, were the only House members from Florida to oppose the Sandy package. For Mr. DeSantis, who represented a coastal district in eastern Florida, the vote at once established him as an eager combatant from the party’s ascendant right wing — he was a founding member of the Freedom Caucus — while at times placing him on the defensive back home.In a local interview that year, Mr. DeSantis said the bill contained “extraneous stuff” that could not be classified as emergency spending. “I never made the point of saying we shouldn’t do anything,” he said, adding that he could have supported a leaner package focused on immediate relief. Asked then if he would vote against a relief package that affected his own district, Mr. DeSantis was noncommittal, suggesting he would support a responsible plan.Through the years, critics in both parties have accused Mr. DeSantis of applying this standard selectively. In 2017, as he was poised to run for governor, Mr. DeSantis supported an aid package after Hurricanes Harvey, Irma and Maria as places like Florida, Texas and Puerto Rico strained to recover.His 2018 primary opponent, Adam Putnam, made an issue of Mr. DeSantis’s voting record during the campaign. Storm-weary voters, a Putnam spokeswoman warned then, should protect themselves against “further destruction at the hands of Hurricane Ron.” Mr. DeSantis’s congressional office denied any inconsistency at the time, rejecting a comparison between the two disaster packages and saying he had supported emergency spending “when immediate and necessary.”Asked about the governor’s past positions on Thursday, a DeSantis spokesman said the administration was “completely focused on hurricane response.” “As the governor said earlier,” the spokesman, Jeremy T. Redfern, said, “we have no time for politics or pettiness.”Some Northeastern lawmakers, including Republicans, have not forgotten how Mr. DeSantis and some of his peers responded when the New York area was under duress. “Year after year, we had given them billions of dollars,” said Peter King, a former Republican congressman from Long Island, alluding to aid packages for Southern states and calling the resistance to Sandy relief his angriest moment in office. “Every one of them comes to New York to raise money. They either go to the Hamptons or they go to Manhattan. And both areas were devastated by Sandy.”This week, Mr. DeSantis said he was “thankful” for the Biden administration’s efforts so far, moving to place himself in the tradition of above-the-fray leadership from past Florida governors who negotiated catastrophic weather events on their watch.President Biden on Thursday at the headquarters of the Federal Emergency Management Agency in Washington. He has emphasized that he and Mr. DeSantis are working together.Kenny Holston for The New York TimesThe president and the governor have each made a point of saying publicly that they and their teams are in touch. “He complimented me. He thanked me for the immediate response we had,” Mr. Biden said on Thursday, suggesting that any political conflicts with Mr. DeSantis were irrelevant in these times. “This is about saving people’s lives, homes and businesses.” (In February, Mr. DeSantis baselessly said Mr. Biden “stiffs” storm victims for political reasons, insisting that the president “hates Florida.”)Haley Barbour, a Republican former governor of Mississippi who presided over the state’s response to Hurricane Katrina, said there was nothing inherently inconsistent about a conservative governor seeking federal storm money. “People think this is a role for the federal government — that some disasters are too big for the community to bear the cost to get back to where you need to be,” he said.Besides, he suggested, Mr. DeSantis and the White House suddenly had something in common. “Biden likes to say, ‘Build back better,’” Mr. Barbour said. “Well, that’s what Florida wants to do.” More