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    In Post-Roe America, Nikki Haley Seeks a New Path on Abortion for G.O.P.

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    In crafting an anti-abortion message that doesn’t alienate moderate Republicans and swing voters, her approach has won both supporters and detractors.In May 2016, Gov. Nikki Haley of South Carolina walked down the aisle of the statehouse, beaming and shaking hands, after signing legislation that would largely outlaw abortion in the state after 20 weeks of pregnancy.Still, she wanted to be sure social conservatives knew where she stood. So her office arranged a second, entirely ceremonial signing a few weeks later at Hidden Treasure Christian School, an evangelical academy for children with disabilities in the heart of South Carolina’s conservative Upstate region.Standing alongside the staunchly anti-abortion lawmakers who sponsored the bill, and flanked by dozens of children, Ms. Haley made clear that her support for their cause was not just political, but also personal.“I am not pro-life because the Republican Party tells me to be,” she said, promoting her support for the ban, which prohibited abortion even in cases of rape or incest. “I’m pro-life because all of us have had experiences of what it means to have one of these special little ones in our life, to lose one, to know what it takes and how hard it is to get one.”Seven years later, Ms. Haley’s abortion politics have not changed much. The same cannot be said for the country.As governor of South Carolina in 2016, Ms. Haley signed a law banning abortion after 20 weeks. She held a ceremonial signing a few weeks later at a Christian school, surrounded by children. Lauren Petracca/Greenville News, via USA Today NetworkAt campaign events, in speeches before anti-abortion groups and from the primary debate stage, Ms. Haley has cast herself as an empathetic seeker of compassionate “consensus” on one of the nation’s most divisive social issues.“We need to stop demonizing this issue,” she said at the first Republican debate in Milwaukee last month. “It’s personal for every woman and man. Now, it’s been put in the hands of the people. That’s great.”The Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights transformed an issue long considered settled by broad swaths of the American public into a political hammer for Democrats. The rapid shift has forced Ms. Haley and other Republicans to thread the needle between what she calls her “unapologetically pro-life” record and the broad majorities of American voters who support some form of abortion rights.Some Republicans see Ms. Haley as pioneering a path forward on what’s become a damaging issue for their party since the 2022 decision. They believe her message could be acceptable to their party’s conservative, anti-abortion base without alienating moderate Republicans and swing voters. For Ms. Haley, the approach is part of a larger strategy to position herself as a more electable alternative to Donald Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida.Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate for governor in Michigan last year, warned that Republicans would lose the messaging fight over abortion again in 2024 unless they adopted a stance similar to Ms. Haley’s that is more focused on compassion and finding common ground. Ms. Dixon lost her own race after facing a barrage of Democratic attacks over her opposition to abortion, including in cases of rape or incest.“Democrats are trying to make anybody who is pro-life the enemy of women,” Ms. Dixon said in an interview. “It felt so good to see a strong, caring woman come at this message from a personal and loving perspective.”Ms. Haley’s approach to abortion is part of a broader campaign strategy to cast herself as a more electable alternative to some of her Republican rivals. Kenny Holston/The New York TimesIn a closed-door meeting this week that was first reported by NBC News, Senate Republicans discussed new polling indicating that voters now saw the term “pro-life” as synonymous with being against abortion with no exceptions, according to a person who attended.The polling, conducted by a super PAC tied to Mitch McConnell of Kentucky, the Senate minority leader, also found that female politicians such as Ms. Haley were better received as messengers for the Republican position on the issue. The group urged Republican senators to do a better job of explaining more nuanced and broadly popular positions, including supporting exceptions to restrictions for rape, incest and the health of the mother.Mr. Trump, the front-runner in the 2024 G.O.P. primary race, has also urged Republicans to embrace less stringent restrictions, while resisting pressure from anti-abortion activists to embrace a 15-week federal ban. Such a ban is widely unpopular: Polling conducted last month by The New York Times/Siena College found that 64 percent of independent voters and 57 percent of female voters oppose it.While she offers little in the way of policy specifics, Ms. Haley flatly dismisses the push for a 15-week federal ban as unrealistic, given that Republicans fall short of the margin needed to pass such a proposal through the Senate. Instead, Ms. Haley stakes out broad areas of what she sees as national agreement, including a ban on “late term” abortions, encouraging adoption, providing contraception and not criminalizing women who have the procedure.Those efforts by Ms. Haley and others to soften their approach face opposition from more strident anti-abortion activists, who view the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe as a starting point on the issue, not the end of it.“We need a national defender of life who will boldly articulate their pro-life position,” said Marjorie Dannenfelser, the head of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, a prominent anti-abortion political group. “The pro-life movement must have a nominee who will boldly advocate for consensus in Congress, and as president will work to gather the votes necessary in Congress. Dismissing this task as unrealistic is not acceptable.”Supporters and campaign strategists say Ms. Haley’s approach reflects her personal experiences. In college, she watched a friend worry that her rape would result in an unwanted pregnancy. She later struggled with infertility, and underwent fertility treatments to have her two children. Her husband, Michael Haley, was adopted as a young child, an experience that made him, she said, “reason No. 1” for her opposition to abortion.“I don’t know if any of the others on that debate stage or Trump can do what she has done, and go out there and talk about this in this way where it’s understanding and compassionate and empathic and it’s coming from a position of real knowledge,” said Jennifer Nassour, the former head of the Massachusetts Republican Party, who is backing Ms. Haley. “She’s the only leader who can take such a divisive issue and bring everyone together on it.”Ms. Haley’s record tells a slightly more complicated story. During her time in South Carolina, Ms. Haley pushed her conservative state to restrict and limit abortion access.As a state legislator, she backed bills mandating ultrasound tests and a 24-hour waiting period before an abortion could be performed. In 2005, she voted for a bill granting constitutional rights of due process and equal protection to a zygote, the fertilized egg cell that forms after conception. And, four years later, she co-sponsored legislation mandating that a “right to life” begins at the point when a sperm cell fertilizes an egg, several weeks before a pregnancy can generally be detected.Such bills have been used by opponents of abortion to try to grant constitutional rights to embryos and fetuses. Those fetal personhood laws, as they are broadly known, could provide a legal framework not just for banning abortion but for limiting access to in vitro fertilization and contraception.“My record on abortion is long and clear,” Ms. Haley said in an April speech to the Susan B. Anthony anti-abortion group. “I voted for every pro-life bill that came before me.”After she became governor in 2011, Ms. Haley backed legislation granting a fetus that survives a failed abortion — a rare occurrence — the same medical treatment rights as a person. She signed a law prohibiting private insurance companies from covering an abortion procedure without the purchase of a separate policy rider. And she signed the 20-week ban in 2016.In 2016, Wendy Nanny, the sponsor of the 20-week ban in the state legislature, saw the legislation as a step toward the ultimate goal of ending abortion rights in America. Ms. Haley, she said, backed that effort.“She was always supportive of anything we tried to do that was pro-life,” Ms. Nanny said. “I never had any kind of pushback from her office.”That anti-abortion record could be hard for Ms. Haley — and other Republicans who supported similar legislation across the country for years — to outrun in a general election. In the decade before Roe was overturned, Republican legislators enacted roughly 600 laws restricting abortion, according to the Guttmacher Institute, a reproductive health research group that supports abortion rights. Voters view those records differently in the post-Roe world, in which abortion is now all but banned in 18 states, including South Carolina.Molly Murphy, a Democratic pollster, doubted whether Ms. Haley could square her “respectful and middle-ground, compromise approach” with a decade-long record of “actually not doing that when in office.” Republicans, she said, have far to go before voters will give them the benefit of the doubt on the issue.“Those candidates trying to walk back their previous positions on abortion look incredibly political and non-trustworthy,” Ms. Murphy said. “Their credibility is so low on this issue that voters just fundamentally believe Republicans want to ban abortion.”But for now, as she tries to win a Republican primary, Ms. Haley’s message is finding an audience among voters seeking an alternative to Mr. Trump. As she waited for Ms. Haley to speak in Manchester, N.H., on Wednesday, Betty Gay, a Republican former state representative, praised her approach.“I think abortion is a horrible form of birth control, but there are some circumstances that require it,” said Ms. Gay, who was still undecided about the primary but does not plan on backing Mr. Trump. “I don’t want either of the extremes.” More

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      Gretchen Whitmer Rejected False Choices. All Democrats Should.

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      For years, the so-called Blue Wall states — Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — have been not just politically but also emotionally important for Democrats. With the party poised to enact a new primary lineup that includes Michigan in an early slot, the state has grown even more important for Democrats.In many ways, Michigan offers a microcosm of American politics. It includes a diverse population of over 10 million people and a mix of big, medium and smaller urban areas, along with diverse suburbs and rural areas.For Democrats, much of the debate about running in and winning big northern industrial states is that we have to choose a style of campaign. Either we talk to blue-collar voters about issues like economics and manufacturing, or we talk to suburban women about abortion. Either we use progressive issues to turn out our base, or we take moderate positions on issues to persuade people in the middle.There is a model for running an effective campaign in Michigan and states like it — and it involves rejecting many of these false choices.Gretchen Whitmer illustrated that model in Michigan this year. With her midterm victory, she has now had two decisive general-election wins in a critical Blue Wall state. Last month, she won by 10.6 points (a margin bested by only two Democratic presidential candidates in the last 50 years, Barack Obama in 2008 and Bill Clinton in 1996).She ran on economics and abortion, increased Democratic turnout and persuaded swing voters, all while connecting with the party’s largest base: Black voters. She embodied the way smart campaigns in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and around the country operated this cycle, and she gave a blueprint for Democrats in 2024.The first lesson of Ms. Whitmer’s campaign is that economic good news and development — especially building things — really make a difference. Democrats should run on American manufacturing: Whether it was a new semiconductor plant (to help ease the chip shortage facing the auto industry) or generational-level investments from G.M. in electric-vehicle battery plants (to make sure the critical supply chains for electric cars will be based in Michigan, not China, where many E.V. batteries are currently built), Ms. Whitmer fought to bring them to Michigan.In in multiple TV ads, she told voters, “I can’t solve the inflation problem, but we’re doing things — right now — to help.” She listed tangible benefits that she proposed or got done, like more affordable community college, insurance refunds and tax cuts for seniors. She passed four balanced, bipartisan budgets with no tax increases, and she let voters know about that.A lot of Democrats talked about economics across the country, but few did so as consistently and effectively as Ms. Whitmer. And it wasn’t just talk: When businesses opened, she was often there to celebrate them.This was paired with a pocketbook attack. Her opponent, Tudor Dixon, took millions of dollars from the wildly unpopular (in Michigan) billionaire Betsy DeVos and her family. For months her campaign highlighted Ms. Dixon’s connections to Ms. DeVos and how Ms. Dixon’s tax plan would benefit Ms. DeVos and hurt the middle class — working-class tax hikes, cuts to schools and the like. Ms. Whitmer also highlighted abortion rights as a vote-deciding issue for swing voters. Again, this was not just talk. Through a ballot initiative, Michigan voters faced the decision on whether to place abortion protections in the state Constitution. Voters approved changing the state Constitution with strong support (57 percent).Months before the Dobbs decision overturned Roe v. Wade and could have effectively banned abortion in Michigan (because of a dormant law from the 1930s), Ms. Whitmer sued and got courts to block enforcement of that law. No doubt the issue helped Michigan Democrats and progressives to catalyze turnout. Estimates from the U.S. Elections Project show overall turnout in 2022 was down about 6 percent from the 2018 midterm, but in Michigan, turnout was up nearly 5 percent.Ms. Whitmer also developed a deep connection with Black voters well before she picked as her running mate and governing partner the state’s first Black lieutenant governor, Garlin Gilchrist. After winning Black voters decisively with high turnout in 2018, she deepened that connection. The “Big Gretch” song (“We ain’t even about to stress/we got Big Gretch”) and memes that came out of Black Michigan spoke to a deep appreciation Black voters had for her decisiveness in the pandemic to keep people safe.This was on top of a lot of other work to help Black voters, things like bringing the first new auto plant to Detroit in 30 years and making sure Detroiters had a first crack at the plant’s jobs.This did not come at the expense of talking to white voters: She won Macomb County, ground zero for voters who cast ballots for Barack Obama, then switched to Donald Trump, by about 60 percent more in 2022 from 2018.What Ms. Whitmer has done in Michigan can be done by Democrats across the country. We can talk about economics and abortion, we can invest in turnout and persuasion, and we can strengthen our appeal to voters of color while winning over white voters.Brian Stryker (@BrianStryker) is a partner at Impact Research and a strategist for Gretchen Whitmer, Tim Ryan and Mandela Barnes, among others.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Michigan G.O.P. Candidates Show Unity as Midterm Campaigns Enter Homestretch

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      CLINTON TOWNSHIP, Mich. — As the midterm campaign enters the homestretch, it’s time for unity rallies.Here in Michigan, that meant bringing the Republican candidates for governor, secretary of state and attorney general together in an empty lot outside a church on a breezy Friday night to speak to a few hundred supporters, who had been amped up by a soundtrack strikingly similar to the set list played before a Trump campaign rally. And each candidate focused their remarks on issues currently animating Republican voters.Tudor Dixon, the Republican candidate for governor, anchored her stump speech to the issue that helped drive Gov. Glenn Youngkin of Virginia to victory just a year ago: education.“It is crucial to get our kids back on track,” she said, spending nearly the first half of her speech on issues surrounding education. “We want to see 25 hours of tutoring for every student, and the funding is there.”She was introduced by Riley Gaines, the collegiate swimmer who has been a vocal critic of transgender athletes competing in women’s sports. Ms. Dixon embraced the college sports cause at the very top of her speech. “Did you ever think we would be here, where we have to defend women’s sports?” Ms. Dixon said.Matthew DePerno, the candidate for attorney general, ticked off crime statistics. Kristina Karamo, the candidate for secretary of state, made allegations of election impropriety against her opponent, Jocelyn Benson, the current secretary of state and a Democrat.That all three candidates have been campaigning together would have seemed unlikely during the primary, when a contentious nominating convention caused a fracture in the Michigan Republican Party. Many moderate Republican donors swore off Mr. DePerno and Ms. Karamo, fearful that they could tank a ticket. Ms. Dixon offered tepid support during the primary for the two of them, though she did not endorse anyone before the convention.Now, with polls showing Ms. Dixon gaining ground but still trailing Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, the entire slate was looking for support from this Republican-leaning county.In a brief news conference after her speech, Ms. Dixon said she was encouraged by her team’s election apparatus in the state, but declined to directly answer whether she would accept the results on election night.“We feel like we have a good team out there watching the election, a lot stronger than in 2020,” she said. “I feel strong about the election.” More

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      Governor’s Races Enter Final Sprint on a Scrambled, Surprising Map

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      Deep-red Oklahoma is in play for Democrats. New York and Oregon are within reach for Republicans. And several swing states have tight races with high stakes on abortion, elections and other issues.Democrats and Republicans raced on Saturday into the final stretch of more than a dozen competitive contests for governor, as the G.O.P. moves within striking distance of flipping the top office in a series of blue and battleground states and Democrats show surprising strength in several other contests.With pivotal races for the House and the Senate appearing to shift toward Republicans, the nation’s far more variable and highly consequential races for governor are drawing huge influxes of money. Democrats are also sending in their cavalry, dispatching former President Barack Obama to a rally in Georgia on Friday before appearances in Michigan and Wisconsin on Saturday and in Nevada on Tuesday.The stakes in these races have become broader and clearer in recent months. The Supreme Court has given states the power to write their own abortion laws, and Republican candidates in places including Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin have embraced former President Donald J. Trump’s lies about the validity of the 2020 election.Republican candidates for governor, who enjoy a favorable political environment but in many states are being outspent by Democrats, have slammed the airwaves with an avalanche of crime ads. Incumbent Democrats have hit back by pointing to money they have pumped into law enforcement agencies and hammering Republicans for opposing abortion rights.The current president and his predecessor, both unpopular with swing voters, are absent from the closest races. President Biden recently stumped for the party’s struggling nominee in liberal Oregon and is headed to New Mexico next week. Mr. Trump is holding rallies in places that are safe for his party, like Iowa and Texas, or where he is aiming to prop up Senate candidates, as in Pennsylvania and Ohio.While the governor’s race in deep-red Oklahoma has become newly competitive for Democrats, and the party has a comfortable lead in divided Pennsylvania, the sour national mood has put the leadership of blue states like New York, New Mexico and Oregon within reach for Republicans. A G.O.P. governor in any of those states could block efforts to expand abortion access and other Democratic priorities.Some Democratic candidates, trying to turn the narrative around, have gone so far as to claim they are fighting an uphill battle — even in New York, where Democrats outnumber Republicans by two to one.“I’ve always said I was an underdog,” Gov. Kathy Hochul said in Queens on Friday, a day before her Republican opponent, Representative Lee Zeldin, was set to appear with Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. “There’s circumstances sometimes you can’t control. You don’t know what’s happening nationally. There’s national waves. There’s a lot of forces out there.”Gov. Kathy Hochul with President Biden in Syracuse on Thursday. Democrats are throwing money into a last-ditch push to shore up her campaign against Representative Lee Zeldin. Kenny Holston for The New York TimesRepublicans have solidified their hold on the traditional presidential battlegrounds of Florida and Ohio, with incumbent governors building enormous fund-raising advantages and sizable polling leads, and Democrats have all but given up in those states. In Texas, Gov. Greg Abbott has never been seriously threatened by former Representative Beto O’Rourke.In Michigan, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat who has centered her campaign on her effort to maintain abortion rights, is confronting a narrowing race against her Republican challenger, Tudor Dixon, though she still holds polling and financial edges. Mr. Obama will hold a rally for Ms. Whitmer in Detroit on Saturday.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Bracing for a Red Wave: Republicans were already favored to flip the House. Now they are looking to run up the score by vying for seats in deep-blue states.Pennsylvania Senate Race: The debate performance by Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who is still recovering from a stroke, has thrust questions of health to the center of the pivotal race and raised Democratic anxieties.G.O.P. Inflation Plans: Republicans are riding a wave of anger over inflation as they seek to recapture Congress, but few economists expect their proposals to bring down rising prices.Polling Analysis: If these poll results keep up, everything from a Democratic hold in the Senate and a narrow House majority to a total G.O.P. rout becomes imaginable, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.In an interview on Friday, Ms. Dixon, who opposes abortion rights, said she had “been on television and radio as much as possible” to make up for Ms. Whitmer’s cash advantage. Since the beginning of September, the governor and Democrats have spent four times as much on television ads as Ms. Dixon and Republican groups have.Asked if she would welcome a final-week visit by Mr. Trump, who last held a rally in the state on Oct. 1, Ms. Dixon mentioned a different surrogate — one who three years ago was running for president as a Democrat.“We’ve already had President Trump here,” she said. “We have other great people. Tulsi Gabbard is coming in this weekend.”Tudor Dixon with her family in Muskegon, Mich. Her campaign has far less money than Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, but polls in their race have narrowed.Emily Elconin for The New York TimesMs. Whitmer said that “Potus was here a while ago, and having Barack Obama here now is great,” referring to Mr. Biden by his presidential acronym. She added, “The whole world understands Michigan is a really important state on the national map and the consequences of this race are big.”The lone incumbent Republican governor in a competitive race is Brian Kemp of Georgia, who is leading his rematch with Stacey Abrams, the Democrat who lost to him narrowly in 2018. Polls show Mr. Kemp with a solid advantage, though there is some doubt about whether he will eclipse the 50 percent threshold needed to avoid a runoff in December..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-1hvpcve em{font-style:italic;}.css-1hvpcve strong{font-weight:bold;}.css-1hvpcve a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.And in Arizona’s open-seat race for governor, the Republican nominee, Kari Lake, a television anchor-turned-Trump acolyte, is in a close race with Katie Hobbs, the Democratic secretary of state, who is widely seen as having mounted a lackluster campaign. A victory by Ms. Lake could have major implications for future elections in Arizona, given her relentless false claims that the 2020 contest was stolen.Yet the presence on the ballot of Senator Mark Kelly, a Democrat who has led in polls of his race, may help Ms. Hobbs survive.Unlike other Democratic candidates for governor in battleground states, Josh Shapiro, right, of Pennsylvania has a healthy lead in the polls.Ruth Fremson/The New York TimesIn some states, Democratic candidates are putting up a stiff challenge or are even ahead. In 12 of the 13 closest governor’s races, the Democratic candidates and their allied groups have spent more money on television advertising since Sept. 1 than their Republican opponents have, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.In Pennsylvania, Josh Shapiro, the Democratic nominee, has built a yawning gap between himself and his underfunded far-right rival, Doug Mastriano, who has promised to ban abortion without exceptions and enact major new voting restrictions. Democrats are also far ahead of Trump-endorsed Republicans in Maryland and Massachusetts, liberal states where moderate Republicans have had recent success in governor’s races.But Democrats who swept into governor’s mansions in the 2018 electoral rejection of Mr. Trump now find themselves battling decades of history. Michigan and Wisconsin — where Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat, is neck-and-neck with Tim Michels, a Republican — have not elected a governor of the same party as the sitting president since 1990, while Kansas and New Mexico have not done so since 1986.Tim Michels, the Republican nominee in Wisconsin, is in a razor-thin race against Gov. Tony Evers, a Democrat. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesAt the same time, Republicans, who hold 28 governorships compared with Democrats’ 22, are attacking their Democratic rivals over crime in contests across the country.Few Republicans in close races have done so quite like Mark Ronchetti, a former TV weatherman running against Michelle Lujan Grisham, the Democratic governor of New Mexico, which Mr. Biden won by 10 percentage points in 2020.Since the beginning of September, 82 percent of the television ad spending from Mr. Ronchetti and the Republican Governors Association has been about crime, according to AdImpact data. Of all of the nation’s Republican candidates for governor, only Mr. Zeldin in New York has made crime more of a focus of his ads.Albuquerque, whose metropolitan area includes about half of New Mexico’s population, set a record for homicides in 2021. The killings are a staple of local television news coverage, so Mr. Ronchetti’s ads bashing Ms. Lujan Grisham on crime are often sandwiched between those news reports.“We’ve always had challenges of making sure we can have a safe city,” Mr. Ronchetti said in an interview. “For the most part, this was a safe place to raise your kids. But it’s gotten out of control.”Ms. Lujan Grisham’s closing advertising features sheriffs saying she has provided funding for more police officers. Democratic advertising has also highlighted Mr. Ronchetti’s opposition to abortion.Perhaps no Democratic nominee has put up as surprising a performance as Joy Hofmeister in Oklahoma.Joy Hofmeister, left, and Gov. Kevin Stitt of Oklahoma during their debate, when she pointed out that the state’s violent crime rate was higher than that of California and New York. Sarah Phipps/The Oklahoman, via Associated PressMs. Hofmeister, the state’s superintendent of public instruction, had a viral debate moment this month when she correctly noted that Oklahoma’s violent crime rate under Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, was higher than the rates in California and New York.Mr. Stitt protested that it wasn’t true.“Oklahomans, do you believe we have higher crime than New York or California?” he said. “That’s what she just said.”In an interview on Thursday, Ms. Hofmeister credited her strength in Oklahoma, where Mr. Trump won 65 percent of the vote in 2020, to focusing on local issues even as Mr. Stitt tries to nationalize the race by tying her to Mr. Biden.“He is reading from a national script,” she said. “It has absolutely nothing to do with reality. It’s this formula that he thinks somehow is going to work.”Luis Ferré-Sadurní More

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      High-profile debates took place in Wisconsin and Michigan on Thursday.

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      Two debates were hosted in marquee political races in Wisconsin and Michigan, both battleground states. Catch up on what happened:Wisconsin’s Senate contestRead four takeaways from the debate.Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, a Democrat trailing in Wisconsin polls and getting hammered by an onslaught of negative television advertising in his race to unseat Senator Ron Johnson, a Republican, tried mightily on Thursday evening in their debate to shift his campaign’s momentum. But he failed to create a singular moment destined to go viral on social and broadcast media.It was a lively affair after last week’s relatively staid debate, but it is unlikely to change the course of the election.Michigan’s race for governorWe have five takeaways from the debate.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, and Tudor Dixon, her Republican challenger, on Thursday gave debate viewers a clear contrast of the choice they will have on the Nov. 8 ballot: an outsider versus an experienced politician.It was the first governor’s race in the state in which both contenders are women. Their next debate will be Oct. 25. More

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      Five Takeaways From the Michigan Governor’s Debate

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      Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat, and Tudor Dixon, her Republican challenger, on Thursday gave debate viewers a clear contrast of the choice they will have on the Nov. 8 ballot: an outsider versus an experienced politician.Ms. Whitmer, who is seeking re-election, sought to keep her tone positive, even as she took swipes at her opponent. She reminded viewers of the violent threats she faced as she tried to lead the state through the Covid pandemic. Ms. Whitmer also stressed her belief in bipartisanship and her work with Republicans, who control both chambers of the Michigan Legislature.“I will continue to work with anyone who wants to solve problems, not just score political points with rhetoric but actually come to the table with alternatives,” she said.Ms. Dixon, a former steel industry executive turned conservative news commentator, held her own as she tried to harness voters’ anger over high food and gas prices and pandemic-driven stretches of crippling unemployment, school closures and business restrictions.“This governor’s state policies are radical, dangerous and destructive,” she said. “Crime is up, jobs are down, schools are worse and the roads didn’t get fixed.”For the first time in a Michigan governor’s race, both contenders are women.The contest is playing out in an extraordinarily tense political environment in Michigan. Before the 2020 election, federal prosecutors accused several men of plotting to kidnap Ms. Whitmer, partly over her handling of the pandemic. Two men pleaded guilty, two men were acquitted and, in August, two others were convicted by jurors. A related trial is now underway in state court.Ms. Whitmer, who has been leading in the polls, has sought to keep the focus on her efforts to bring jobs to Michigan and to paint Ms. Dixon as out of step with voters on abortion. Ms. Dixon, who is backed by former President Donald J. Trump and the politically powerful DeVos family, has leaned hard into attacking transgender women and criticizing Ms. Whitmer for her pandemic-era policies on businesses.But Ms. Dixon has struggled to build out a campaign in the state, where Democrats are sharply outspending Republicans on the television airwaves.Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor in Michigan. She described herself as “pro-life with exceptions for life of the mother.”Bryan Esler/Nexstar Media GroupAbortion was prominent, but viewers learned nothing new.The first question of the night touched on the issue that has dominated the race and that may prove to be a litmus test for the state’s suburban and independent voters.With the enforcement of a 1931 law banning abortion temporarily blocked in the state and voters set to decide in November whether to enshrine abortion rights in the state Constitution, Ms. Whitmer highlighted her track record of being an outspoken supporter of abortion rights.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.She also criticized her opponent for saying that abortion should be allowed only if it is necessary to save the life of a mother, not in cases of rape or incest. “We know that our fundamental rights are very much at risk right now,” she said.Ms. Dixon described herself as “pro-life with exceptions for life of the mother” and said abortion rules in the state would be decided by voters or a judge. She leaned into a strategy that she and other Republicans have deployed throughout the campaign trail, seeking to paint Ms. Whitmer as “extremely radical” on the issue.Fighting about the pandemic remains a hot topic.Ms. Whitmer, asked if there was anything she would have done differently in her response to the pandemic, painted a stark picture of the situation that the state faced during an early wave of infections that drove a spike in deaths.“We knew that our hospitals were filling up and that people were dying,” said Ms. Whitmer, whose early restrictions were among the most sweeping in the Midwest. “We were in desperate search of masks and ventilators. There were refrigerated trucks outside of some of our hospitals to store people’s bodies.”Ms. Dixon accused the governor of bungling the response to Covid in nursing homes and blasted her over an audit that showed Michigan paid up to $8.5 billion in fraudulent unemployment assistance claims. She argued that Ms. Whitmer kept students “locked out of schools and wouldn’t listen to parents when they begged her to let them play.”Ms. Whitmer told viewers that her life was being threatened — possibly an allusion to the plot to kidnap her in 2020 — as she tried to navigate the state through the pandemic.The kids aren’t all right.Schools, both their safety and the quality of education, have been major themes in the race.The year Ms. Whitmer was sworn into office, Michigan public school students showed significant improvement after years of struggles. But the pandemic crippled the academic landscape across the country.On the campaign trail, Ms. Dixon has repeatedly drawn criticism for anti-L.G.B.T.Q. language, as she has pledged to keep transgender girls out of girls’ sports and accused schools of teaching “radical sex and gender theory.” But on the debate stage, she often kept her comments more subdued, saying she would spend more money on public schools and focus students on the basics: “Get back to reading, writing and math.”Ms. Whitmer fired back by criticizing Ms. Dixon for her ties to the powerful DeVos family, which has long worked to support charter schools and private schools.School safety has been front-of-mind in Michigan since a deadly shooting at Oxford High School last year. Ms. Whitmer noted the gun rules she backs: “secure storage,” background checks and “red-flag” gun seizure laws. Ms. Dixon argued in favor of arming and training people inside schools to confront a gunman.Cars, roads and gas came up again and again.In a state that is home to both the American auto industry and a striking number of potholes, the two candidates spent a lot of time talking about cars and the surfaces they drive on.Ms. Whitmer, who ran four years ago on a pledge to “Fix the Damn Roads,” said there had been plenty of progress, but not nearly enough time to overcome decades of rotting pavement.“We are fixing the damn roads,” the governor said. “We are moving dirt.”Ms. Dixon said that the governor had failed to keep her promises, and that the state’s infrastructure remained lacking.Electric vehicles also came up often. Ms. Dixon claimed her opponent “wants you to pay more for gas to force you into electric vehicles.” Ms. Whitmer scoffed at that suggestion.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a former prosecutor, said she had sought more funding for law enforcement.Bryan Esler/Nexstar Media GroupDixon tried to portray the governor as weak on crime.Ms. Dixon invoked the governor’s embrace of protesters after the 2020 killing of George Floyd by Minneapolis police and reminded viewers that Ms. Whitmer once said she supported the “spirit” of efforts to defund the police.“We will never defund the police,” said Ms. Dixon, who played up her support from law enforcement organizations.Ms. Whitmer, a former prosecutor, countered by saying she had sought more funding for law enforcement and had worked across party lines on the issue. She also noted her own endorsements from law enforcement officials.“They know we have made the biggest investments supporting them, and we will continue to do so, so long as I’m governor,” Ms. Whitmer said.The governor also criticized Ms. Dixon for defending the actions of a Grand Rapids police officer who fatally shot Patrick Lyoya, a Congolese immigrant, after a traffic stop in April. That officer, Christopher Schurr, was later charged with murder and fired from the Police Department. He has denied wrongdoing and is awaiting trial. More

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      In Michigan, Tudor Dixon Tests Whether Trump Is Help or Hindrance

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      Tudor Dixon, the party’s nominee for governor, has ground to make up in her race against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer. She is hoping the former president can rally their party’s base.CLARKSTON, Mich. — As she runs to lead a narrowly divided swing state, Tudor Dixon is pursuing a hazardous strategy in the Michigan governor’s race: embracing Donald J. Trump, and at times emulating his no-holds-barred political style.She hit the campaign trail recently with the former president’s son Donald Trump Jr. and Kellyanne Conway, the onetime Trump White House adviser — and, in Trumpian fashion, made headlines for mocking her Democratic opponent, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, over a 2020 kidnapping plot hatched against her by right-wing militia members.In other appearances, Ms. Dixon called for a ban on transgender girls playing in girl’s and women’s sports. And on a recent afternoon at an athletic club in an affluent suburb northwest of Detroit, where a life-size cutout of Mr. Trump stood by the doors, she promoted his so-called America First business policies.“‘America First’ — Michigan First — will bring Michigan back together,” she said.The governor’s race between Ms. Dixon and Ms. Whitmer carries high stakes for abortion rights, schools and the future of elections. It is historic — the first time two women have ever gone head-to-head for the position in the state.The contest also serves as a test of whether Ms. Dixon and other Republican candidates can win their general elections by harnessing the grass-roots energy of Trump supporters that propelled them to the top of crowded and chaotic primaries. That approach — which entails a close association with Mr. Trump’s election denialism and other political baggage — worries some Michigan Republicans who believe Ms. Dixon is failing to win over the kinds of suburban and independent voters who are crucial in tight races.But it might be the only option she has. Early voting began on Thursday, and with time running out, Ms. Dixon is short on cash, well behind in polls, still working to shore up support among her Republican base and being pummeled by Democrats on the television airwaves.“Uphill, on icy roads,” said Dennis Darnoi, a longtime Republican strategist in Michigan, describing her path to victory. “It is a challenge, with a month left, for her to make up the kind of ground that she is going to need.”Ms. Dixon has struggled to compete financially with Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, a Democrat. Emily Elconin for The New York TimesMs. Dixon, who is set to appear alongside Mr. Trump at a rally on Saturday in Macomb County, has appeared unfazed, arguing that her recent fund-raising numbers have been high and that her message will ultimately resonate with voters more than Ms. Whitmer’s.Asked about the challenges ahead for the campaign and Democrats’ large spending numbers, Sara Broadwater, Ms. Dixon’s communications director, took shots at pollsters, saying they failed to predict Mr. Trump’s 2016 victory.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Sensing a Shift: As November approaches, there are a few signs that the political winds may have begun to blow in a different direction — one that might help Republicans over the final stretch.Focusing on Crime: Across the country, Republicans are attacking Democrats as soft on crime to rally midterm voters. Pennsylvania’s Senate contest offers an especially pointed example of this strategy.Arizona Senate Race: Blake Masters, a Republican, appears to be struggling to win over independent voters, who make up about a third of the state’s electorate.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Doug Mastriano, the Trump-backed G.O.P. nominee, is being heavily outspent and trails badly in polling. National Republicans are showing little desire to help him.“As Tudor said the other day in response to a similar question, ‘Isn’t it sad that the Democrats have to spend so much money?’” Ms. Broadwater said. “Gretchen Whitmer remains highly vulnerable as pro-Dixon forces begin to fire back and her campaign gains momentum.”Not all Republicans who closely aligned themselves with Mr. Trump have struggled to pivot from the primary election to the general. In Arizona, the Republican nominee for governor, Kari Lake, has taken a similar approach, and has narrowed her race to a dead heat — but unlike Ms. Dixon, she is not facing an incumbent governor like Ms. Whitmer.Other candidates backed by Mr. Trump, like Blake Masters in Arizona’s Senate race and Doug Mastriano in Pennsylvania’s contest for governor, have fallen behind their Democratic opponents as they have struggled to raise money. Another Republican Senate hopeful, J.D. Vance, is facing a closer-than-expected race in Ohio.Mr. Trump has maintained a keen interest in Michigan. He eked out a victory in the state in 2016 by fewer than 11,000 votes before losing to Joseph R. Biden Jr. in 2020 by more than 154,000 votes.Days before the Republican primary in early August, Mr. Trump endorsed Ms. Dixon, a conservative media personality backed by Michigan’s powerful DeVos family.Ms. Dixon, 45, a breast cancer survivor, worked as a steel industry executive until 2017, when she helped create Lumen Student News, a company that produces conservative TV news and history lessons for middle and high school students.In a December 2021 radio interview, she said she aimed to restore students’ faith in the country and combat what she described as “indoctrination” in schools. After helping found Lumen, Ms. Dixon went on to host a news show, “America’s Voice Live,” on weekday afternoons.Ms. Dixon, a former conservative media personality, is allied with Michigan’s powerful DeVos family. Emily Elconin for The New York TimesA cutout of Mr. Trump was on display at a town-hall event where Ms. Dixon spoke on Thursday in Clarkston, Mich. Emily Elconin for The New York TimesOn the stump, Ms. Dixon says she became a vocal critic of Ms. Whitmer’s coronavirus restrictions as she witnessed their negative impact on Michigan’s economy. The safety measures “took a deeply personal turn,” Ms. Dixon’s website states, after her grandmother died in a Norton Shores nursing home that prohibited visits during the pandemic.Ms. Dixon, who has the delivery of someone comfortable in front of an audience, has generated criticism for spreading unfounded claims about voter fraud in the 2020 election and for some of her stances on L.G.B.T.Q. issues, including calling for “severe criminal penalties for adults who involve children in drag shows.”On her website, she calls for a ban to prevent school employees from talking to children in kindergarten through third grade “about sex and gender theory secretly behind their parents’ backs‍.” And she has said that abortion should be allowed only if it is necessary to save the life of a mother, not in cases of rape or incest.Ms. Dixon’s stance on abortion in particular — in a state where voters tend to favor abortion rights and in November will weigh a ballot measure to enshrine the right to abortion in the state Constitution — is a big reason that some Republicans are worried about her chances. They also fear that underperformance at the top of the ballot could cause the G.O.P. to lose control of the State Legislature.Michigan’s Republican Party has been in a state of turmoil for months.The party’s primary was defined by fierce infighting between its establishment and Trump factions. Its two front-runners for governor were disqualified for turning in petitions with thousands of forged signatures. Another candidate was charged with four misdemeanors related to the Capitol riot.Ms. Dixon managed to rally her fractious party behind her in the race’s final weeks. But even after winning the primary, she remained a relatively little-known political outsider. It did not help that at the G.O.P. state convention later in August, Republicans officially endorsed two preachers of 2020 election falsehoods for top state offices: Matthew DePerno for attorney general and Kristina Karamo for secretary of state.The bruising battles, as well as the lack of financial networks and campaign experience among leading Republican candidates, have made for what Richard Czuba, an independent pollster in Lansing, Mich., called “the worst ticket I have seen from any party in the last 40 years.”“It is great to run as an outsider, especially when you run against an incumbent,” Mr. Czuba said. “But there are two sides of that outsider coin. On the one hand, you can run as the outsider against the establishment. On the flip side, you don’t know how to do this — and that is what is showing.”Ms. Dixon and her running mate, former State Representative Shane Hernandez, after officially securing their nomination at the Republican convention in late August.Emily Elconin for The New York TimesAs the general election began, Democrats rushed to define Ms. Dixon before she had a chance to define herself. As Ms. Whitmer had kept $14 million in her war chest by late August, after accounting for debts and expenditures, Ms. Dixon’s end balance was $523,000, according to the state’s latest available campaign finance reports. Democratic groups have poured more than $41 million into television ads since the August primary, according to the firm AdImpact, which analyzes campaign ad spending. Republican groups, by contrast, have invested about $5.5 million.State party leaders and national Republicans this week pushed back against any notion that the race was out of reach and that Ms. Dixon had been left to fend for herself. This past week, the Michigan Republican Party began its largest ad push against Ms. Whitmer, seeking to paint her as “soft on crime.” Chris Gustafson, a spokesman for the Republican Governors Association, said it might also jump in with more ads soon.“In Michigan historically, we have seen candidates in big races be down in the polls only to come back to win,” Mr. Gustafson said. “We feel Tudor is a strong candidate with a good message. She is within striking distance.”At Ms. Dixon’s event at the athletic club in Oakland County, a panel including former Trump administration officials sat against the tall glass walls of a serene, sunlit indoor pool, as they blasted Mr. Biden’s economic policies and painted a harrowing picture of crime-filled American cities and unchecked immigration at the southwestern border.In a short speech, Ms. Dixon slammed what she characterized as a “radical sex and gender theory” permeating schools and denounced Ms. Whitmer for providing tax incentives to bring a Chinese company to Michigan, rather than an American one.But mostly, she displayed a rare dose of moderation, critiquing Mr. Whitmer’s pandemic restrictions and economic policies, rising crime in the state’s cities, and schools that Ms. Dixon argued had failed to adequately teach students to read and write. They were the kinds of remarks that some establishment and moderate Republicans might be hoping for — and they also seemed to appease the people in the room.Susan Savich, 64, and her 24-year-old son, Jonathan, asked to take photos with Ms. Dixon on her way out. They were opposed to schools teaching children anything but basic skills and traditional beliefs, they said, and Mr. Savich liked that Ms. Dixon was “education first.”They were also relieved to hear that Mr. Trump was coming to the state. “Ms. Dixon is going up against a lot,” Mr. Savich said. More

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      Democrats Condemn Tudor Dixon for Mocking Whitmer Kidnapping Plot

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      Tudor Dixon, the Republican nominee for governor of Michigan, mocked a kidnapping plot against her Democratic opponent, Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, at two campaign events on Friday.The 2020 plot against Ms. Whitmer rattled Michigan and was seen as a sign of the rising threat of political violence and right-wing domestic terrorism. Two men were convicted in a plan to kidnap the governor at her vacation home and instigate a national rebellion. Prosecutors said that the men went on “reconnaissance missions” to the home, amassed high-powered guns and discussed blowing up a bridge to keep the police from responding. Two other men were acquitted.“The sad thing is Gretchen will tie your hands, put a gun to your head and ask if you are ready to talk. For someone so worried about getting kidnapped, Gretchen Whitmer sure is good at taking business hostage and holding it for ransom,” she said at an event in Troy, Mich., provoking laughter and applause in the room.The remarks drew swift condemnation from Ms. Whitmer’s campaign and from Democratic groups. At another campaign event later in the day in Muskegon, Ms. Dixon doubled down. She joked that Ms. Whitmer had looked unsure of what was going on as she held President Biden’s hand during his recent visit to an auto show in the state.“The look on her face was like, ‘Oh, my gosh, this is happening. I’d rather be kidnapped by the F.B.I.,’” she said at the rally, as some in the audience laughed, clapped and whistled. Then, looking to reporters in the back, she contended that her earlier comments about holding businesses for ransom had not been a joke.Tudor Dixon took the stage at the Conservative Political Action Coalition in Dallas last month. She is running against Gov. Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan, a Democrat.Emil Lippe for The New York Times“If you were afraid of that, you should know what it is to have your life ripped away from you,” Ms. Dixon said.Ms. Dixon, who is trailing Ms. Whitmer in the polls before the election on Nov. 8, had been campaigning on Friday with Donald Trump Jr. and Kellyanne Conway, the former Trump White House adviser. Former President Donald J. Trump is expected to appear with Ms. Dixon at a rally on Oct. 1 in Macomb County.In a statement, Sam Newton, deputy communications director for the Democratic Governors Association, called Ms. Dixon’s comments “dangerous, an insult to law enforcement who keep us safe and utterly disqualifying for the role of Michigan governor.”Maeve Coyle, a spokeswoman for Ms. Whitmer’s campaign, said Ms. Dixon’s remarks made her “absolutely unfit to lead in Michigan” and were “no laughing matter.”“Governor Whitmer has faced serious threats to her safety and her life, and she is grateful to the law enforcement and prosecutors for their tireless work,” Ms. Coyle said in a statement. More