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      in US Politics

      ‘No way out without bloodshed’: the right believe the US is under threat and are mobilizing

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      The posts are ominous.“Pick a side, or YOU are next,” wrote conservative talkshow host Dan Bongino on the Truth Social media platform in the aftermath of Donald Trump’s 34 felony convictions.The replies were even more so.“Dan, seriously now,” one user wrote in response to Bongino. “I see no way out of all this mess without bloodshed. When you can rig an election, then weaponize the government and the courts against a former President, what other alternative is there? I’m almost 70 and would rather die than live in tyranny.”That’s a common version of how many people on the US right reacted to the ex-president’s verdict, drawing on a “mirror world” where Trump is seen as the selfless martyr to powerful state forces and Joe Biden is the dangerous autocrat wielding the justice system as his own personal plaything and a threat to US democracy.Calls for revenge, retribution and violence littered the rightwing internet as soon as Trump’s guilty verdict came down, all predicated on the idea that the trial had been a sham designed to interfere with the 2024 election. Some posted online explicitly saying it was time for hangings, executions and civil wars.In this case, Trump was charged with falsifying documents related to a hush-money payment made to an adult film actor to keep an alleged affair out of the spotlight during the 2016 election – a form of election interference from a man whose platform lately consists largely of blaming others for election interference. The verdict has been followed by a backlash from his followers, those who for years chanted to lock up Trump’s political opponents, like Hillary Clinton.View image in fullscreenOn the left, the mood was downright celebratory, a brief interlude of joy that Trump might finally be held accountable for his actions. But there was an undercurrent of worry among some liberals, who saw the way these felonies could galvanize support for him.On the right, in the alternate reality created by and for Trump and his supporters, the convictions are a sign of both doom and dogma – evidence that a corrupt faction runs the Joe Biden government, but that it can be driven out by the Trump faithful like themselves.Trump’s allies in Congress want to use the federal government’s coffers to send a message to Biden that the verdict crosses a line, saying the jury’s decision “turned our judicial system into a political cudgel”. Some Senate Republicans vowed not to cooperate with Democratic priorities or nominees – effectively politicizing the government as recompense for what they claim is a politicization of the courts.They echoed a claim Trump himself has repeatedly driven home to his followers: that his political opponents, namely Biden, are a threat to democracy, a rebrand of how Biden and Democrats often cast Trump. For his most ardent followers, the stakes of the 2024 election are existential, the idea that he might lose a cause for intense rhetoric and threats.And, for some, the convictions provide another reason to take matters into their own hands during a time when support for using violence to achieve political goals is on the rise. Indictments against Trump fueled this support, surveys have shown.Some rightwing media and commentators, like Bongino and the Gateway Pundit, displayed upside-down flags on social media, a sign of distress and a symbol among Trump supporters that recently made the news because one flew at US supreme court justice Samuel Alito’s home after the insurrection.View image in fullscreenThe terms “banana republic” and “kangaroo court” flew around, as did memes comparing Biden to Nazi or fascist leaders. Telegram channels lit up with posts about how the end of the US was solidified – unless Trump wins again in November.“If we jail Trump, get rid of Maga, end the electoral college, ban voter ID, censor free speech, we’ll save democracy,” says one meme in a QAnon channel on Telegram that depicts Biden in a Nazi uniform with a Hitler mustache.Tucker Carlson, the rightwing media heavyweight, waxed apocalyptic: “Import the third world, become the third world. That’s what we just saw. This won’t stop Trump. He’ll win the election if he’s not killed first. But it does mark the end of the fairest justice system in the world. Anyone who defends this verdict is a danger to you and your family.”Trump’s supporters also opened their wallets, sending a “record-shattering” $34.8m in small-dollar donations to Trump’s campaign on Thursday, the Trump campaign claimed.The massive haul came after Trump declared himself a “political prisoner” (he is not in prison) and declared justice “dead” in the US in a dire fundraising pitch.“Their sick & twisted goal is simple: Pervert the justice system against me so much, that proud supporters like YOU will SPIT when you hear my name,” Trump’s campaign wrote. “BUT THAT WILL NEVER HAPPEN! NOW IT’S TIME FOR ME & YOU TO SHOVE IT BACK IN THEIR CORRUPT FACES!”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe real verdict, Trump wrote on Truth Social, would come on 5 November. Posts calling 5 November a new “independence day” and comparing 2024 to 1776 – but a revolution not against the British, but among Americans for the control of the country – spread widely.Misinformation and rumors spread as well, with the potential that these rumors could lead to further action by Republicans to avenge Trump.View image in fullscreenIn one viral claim, people say it’s not clear what crimes Trump even committed (the charges for falsifying documents are listed in detail in the indictment, and have been broken down piece by piece by the media). In another, posts claim the judge gave incorrect instructions to the jury before deliberations, which an Associated Press fact check deemed false.Suggestions that the conviction was an “op” or a “psyop” – meaning a planned manipulation, a common refrain on the far right whenever something big happens – spread as well.Talk quickly went to what Maga should do to stand up for Trump, and about how the verdict’s fans, and Democrats in general, would come to regret seeking accountability in the courts.“This is going to be the biggest political backfire in US history,” the conservative account Catturd posted on Truth Social. “I’m feeling a tremendous seismic shift in the air.”Kash Patel, a former Trump administration staffer and ally, suggested one way forward: Congress should subpoena the bank records of Merchan’s daughter, he said. The daughter became a frequent target throughout the trial – she worked as a Democratic consultant and has fundraised for Democratic politicians. Ohio senator JD Vance called for a criminal investigation into Merchan, and potentially his daughter, whom Vance said was an “obvious beneficiary of Merchan’s biased rulings”.View image in fullscreenPatel also said prosecutor Alvin Bragg should be subpoenaed for any documents related to meetings with the Biden administration. “In case you need a jurisdictional hook- Bragg’s office receives federal funds from DOJ to ‘administer justice’- GET ON IT,” he wrote.Megyn Kelly said Bragg should be disbarred, without offering a reason for what would justify it.Some Trump allies sought to project calm amid the vitriol, saying they had known the verdict would come down as it did because the process had been rigged, and that people needed to keep focused on winning in November.Steve Bannon, who himself is awaiting some time in prison for criminal contempt, said immediately after the verdict was released that it was “not going to damage President Trump at all”.“It’s time to collect yourself and say, yes, we’ve seen what’s happened. We’ve seen how they run the tables in this crooked process. But you’ve got to say, hey, I’m more determined than ever to set things right.” More

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      in US Politics

      A Black pastor is preaching support for Trump – but can he win over voters?

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      View image in fullscreenIn the summer of 2011, Darrell Scott, a Pentecostal minister from a Black church in Cleveland, the New Spirit Revival Center, was asked by a televangelist friend to come to Trump Tower in New York for a meeting shrouded in mystery. Scott was ushered up to a ballroom on the 26th floor where he found a group of about 15 other pastors waiting.Donald Trump, then star of The Celebrity Apprentice, swept into the room. “I’m thinking about running for president,” he told the astonished gathering. “I’m hoping you guys can pray on me, that God gives me the wisdom to make the right decision.”The former president held his fire on that occasion, but not before Scott had shared with him some blunt home truths. As a plain-talking born-again former drug dealer, and one of the only Black pastors present in the room, Scott gave it to Trump straight.“What makes you think Black people will vote for you?” he told the real estate tycoon. “Word on the street is you don’t like Black people.”Thirteen years later, and less than six months away from another presidential election in which Trump is running, Scott now finds himself at the receiving end of the very same question he posed to Trump. He was so impressed by the TV celebrity’s response to his challenge in 2011, in which Trump invoked unemployment as the main hurdle for African American communities, that he became an instant acolyte.His conversion has been so total that the 65-year-old pastor now has a reputation – and notoriety – for being Trump’s earliest, and one of his most dependable, Black apostles. In 2016, Trump publicly thanked Scott for encouraging him to run for the White House; two years later the pastor returned the compliment by calling him “the most pro-Black president we’ve had in our lifetime”.Scott co-founded the National Diversity Coalition, Trump’s spluttering attempt in 2016 to demonstrate that he had traction with African American and Hispanic voters. Ironically, his co-founder was Michael Cohen, who was the main state’s witness at Trump’s New York hush-money trial. (Scott’s name was mentioned in the trial, when Cohen was cross-examined over private requests he made to the pastor to put in a good word for him with Trump.)Now, as the 2024 presidential year thickens, Scott is once again occupying the barricades. Though he lacks a formal title within the Trump campaign, he identifies himself as the former president’s “senior adviser”, and is determined to see his “friend” back in the White House.Scott believes the traditional Democratic loyalties of African Americans is starting to turn. By his reckoning, as many as 25% or 30% of Black voters could back Trump in November – which would be a seismic shift were it to come even close. (In 2020, a mere 8% of Black voters cast their ballots for the incumbent president, according to the Pew Research Center, with 92% siding with his Democratic challenger Joe Biden.)“I hear a lot of positivity regarding President Trump in the Black community. Very little negativity. Those I speak to have changed their tone against him. ‘Trump’s not so bad after all,’ they say.”View image in fullscreenOpinion polls suggest, very tentatively, that there might be something to the pastor’s optimism. A small but potentially significant slice of the African American population appears to be hazarding a switch to Trump.A new Pew poll, for instance, puts him at 18% and the latest New York Times/Sienna survey of the six key battleground states likely to seal the outcome in November shows 23% of Black voters leaning towards him.It would be a fool’s game to read too much into this data, given that the election is still months away and it is not clear how many African Americans who are disappointed with the Biden presidency will actually end up casting a vote for Trump. But in the event of a close election in November, even a relatively small defection from Biden’s base could be fatal to his re-election hopes.What is definite, however, is that Scott has paid a high price for his public allegiance to Trump.It’s not easy as a Black pastor being a champion for a man who has called the majority-Black city of Baltimore a “disgusting, rat- and rodent-infested mess”; told American-born progressive congresswomen of colour to “go back” to the “crime-infested places from which they came”; and exhorted NFL owners to fire “son of a bitch” players who took the knee in protest against racism.For speaking out on Trump’s behalf, Scott has been labeled an Uncle Tom, a sell-out a money-grabbing opportunist. And that’s just the start.View image in fullscreenOn the Sunday in May that the Guardian attended the service at his New Spirit Revival Center, a repurposed synagogue in Cleveland Heights, the vast nave was about a third full with some 300 worshippers. Has that been one of the costs – in congregation?“Oh yeah, a lot of people left,” he said frankly, referring to the reaction to his very public coming out for Trump during the 2016 cycle. “It was kind of disheartening. I would have expected them to have more faith in me, that if their pastor supports him, there must be something good there.”Some of those who quit the church have since returned, he said, while diehard Democrats haven’t. But this year he remains convinced that there is change in the air.“People in the Black community are like: ‘Wait a minute, this boogeyman that we were told about, this monster didn’t materialize.’”Scott is talking with a hoarse voice in the back office of the church having delivered an hour-long fire-and-brimstone sermon. The narrative of his preaching follows closely the arc of his own life.He evokes the “pain of affliction” suffered by his almost exclusively Black congregants, recognising their struggles with money, relationships, housing.In the early 1980s, Scott had his own pain of affliction as a cocaine dealer. He was keen for the Guardian to know, in true Trumpian fashion, that even then, he wasn’t a loser. “I wasn’t down and out, I was up and out. I was making a lot of money, doing good. I had my own operation.”He was saved from that life of crime when a neighbor brought Scott’s girlfriend, his now wife, Belinda, to church where she was baptized. She in turn led Scott to the pulpit.View image in fullscreenThere was no overt politics in his sermon, and the word “Trump” is never mentioned; “this is God’s time”, he said. But he did monologue on the evils of inflation, bemoaning the cost of a hamburger – another very Trumpian note.The economy was a big reason why Scott embraced Trump all the way back in 2011. After the pastor challenged the TV star over his racist image, Trump looked him straight in the eye and said: “I haven’t a racist bone in my body,” before going on to identify unemployment as the root of much anguish in the Black community. “I liked his answers,” Scott said.Now Scott contends that Black voters, for so long unshakably Democratic, are moving towards Trump largely because they are struggling under Biden’s economy. It’s those hamburgers, stupid.“Black Americans want the same thing white Americans want, a healthy economy, safety, money,” he said.Trump’s take on the economy – putting the individual first, stressing hard work over government handouts – chimed with Scott’s inherent conservatism that he says stemmed from his Christianity. Christianity? Wasn’t Jesus on the side of the poor, the Guardian asked.“No, no, no, no, no,” he shot back. “Jesus didn’t multiply bread and give it to a bunch of poor people. He didn’t multiply fish for the poor – he did it for those who followed him and listened to him.”In the pastor’s analysis, Trump proved himself in his four years in the White House through actions – some ceremonial, others policy-oriented – directed at African Americans. He posthumously pardoned the first Black heavyweight boxing champion Jack Johnson, upgraded Martin Luther King’s birthplace into a national historic park, and signed into the law the First Step Act to chip away at mass incarceration.View image in fullscreenBy contrast, Scott blames Biden for his role in passing the 1994 crime bill that helped pave the way to that mass incarceration. “You talk about fatherlessness in the Black community,” he said. “That can be traced to that bill that removed Black men from their homes.”But what about Trump’s track record of racist statements and associations? At the precise same moment Scott was preaching his Sunday sermon, Biden was speaking at an historically Black college, Morehouse in Atlanta, Georgia, where he railed against the “poison of white supremacy” in a clear dig at Trump.“That narrative is tired, it’s old, it’s disproven,” Scott said. “To go to a Black college, and the only reason Biden can give a Black person for not voting for Trump is racism, that insults our intelligence and it ain’t flying no more.”Trump’s litany of racist comments and actions grows longer by the day. About 24 hours after the Guardian attended Scott’s sermon, Trump shared a video on his Truth Social account that echoed Adolf Hitler by speculating that he would usher in a “unified reich” if he won in November.There’s his dining with the white supremacist Nick Fuentes at Mar-a-Lago; his reference to Black nations including Haiti as “shithole countries”; his travel ban on majority-Muslim countries.The Guardian put just a few specimen cases to Scott. In May 1989, Trump took out a full-page newspaper advert in which he called for the death penalty to be brought back after an horrific rape in New York’s Central Park. The ad heightened the furor around five young Black teenagers who had been arrested and were later imprisoned for up to 13 years, only to be exonerated after their confessions were found to have been coerced.The case of the Central Park Five – five innocent Black boys who would have gone to their deaths if Trump had his way – must surely be a cause for concern? “There’s still a large faction in the police in New York city that thinks those guys are guilty,” Scott replied.In 2011, Trump worked hard to convince the US that its first Black president, Barack Obama, was born in Kenya (he was in fact born in Hawaii). Any qualms about Trump’s leading role in the so-called birther movement, given that Scott voted for Obama in 2008 (though not in 2012, saying he’d gone off him by then)?“The doggone birther story came out of Hillary Clinton’s camp – they originated it,” Scott said. Numerous fact-checking outlets investigated the claim, articulated by Trump himself, that Clinton’s campaign initiated the birther lie and found it to be wholly untrue – individual Clinton supporters did circulate the rumours, but they had no links to Clinton or her people, and the fact-checkers concluded that Clinton had nothing to do with it.View image in fullscreenWhat about Charlottesville, Trump’s statement after the deadly 2017 white-supremacist riot in Virginia that there were “many fine people on both sides”? “The Charlottesville remark was edited, they left the part off when he said: ‘I’m not talking about the white supremacists,’” Scott said.It is true that later in the same press conference in which Trump made his “both sides” remark, he said he was referring not to neo-Nazis but to those peacefully protesting the removal of a statue of confederate general Robert E Lee. But Trump has continued to grant moral equivalence to white supremacists, including his exhortation to “stand back and stand by” to the Proud Boys militia that went on to participate in the storming of the US Capitol on 6 January 2021.The insurrection that day raises Trump’s role in rocket-charging longstanding Republican efforts to suppress Black and other minority votes by claiming fraud in elections. How can a Black leader endorse someone who embraces anti-democratic tactics that have for decades diminished the political participation – and hence power – of African Americans?“I myself believe there was election chicanery. I believe there was fraud, in mail-in ballots,” he said, adding that in his view Trump wasn’t trying to suppress votes so much as “legitimize” them.No evidence has ever been presented, in court or anywhere else, that the 2020 election was distorted by fraud.After Scott’s service ended, the Guardian took a straw poll of African American customers in the Starbucks franchise over the road from the church. It wasn’t faintly scientific, but it did underline how much work Trump must do if he is to effect his Black wave.“Trump’s a psychopath, he’s not getting my vote,” said Leshelle, 30.“I would never vote for Donald Trump,” said Charles, 60. “He’s a criminal and not a good person.”View image in fullscreenErnest, 76, who has voted Democratic all his life, said he would not cast his vote for a man he blamed for the injuries inflicted on scores of police officers during the January 6 insurrection. “Our democracy is at stake because of Trump’s rhetoric,” he said.Given the task ahead, it is notable that Scott reserves his fiercest invective not for Democratic voters like Ernest, but for people on his own side of the political divide. Members, like him, of Trump’s inner circle.Scott’s Culprit Number One is Charlie Kirk, the hard-right founder of Turning Point Action who has made a career – and a fortune – out of sticking tight to Trump while making racist statements that go viral.Kirk has denounced Martin Luther King Jr as an “awful” person, dismissing the civil right leader’s achievements as a myth. He professes to worry when entering a plane should he see a Black pilot because “I’m going to be like: ‘Boy, I hope he’s qualified’.”Scott is Kirk’s harshest critic, denouncing him in terms far sharper than liberal commentators. He has accused Kirk of inspiring a new generation of Hitler Youth and of wanting to return to the days when “we would still be drinking at separate water fountains”.View image in fullscreenWhy does the Turning Point chief get him so riled up? “It’s already hard enough for Black conservatives without Kirk making shit worse for us by crapping on Martin Luther King,” the pastor said.“I live in the Black community, my church is in the Black community, I’ve got Democrats in my family. And I’m going to sit back like some Uncle Tom and stay silent and let Charlie Kirk shit on our Black icon? Not me. I’m not built like that.”The tirade is stunning, especially as it is directed at one of his own, and raises that question again: why do it? Why does Scott stick with Trump when all he seems to get for it is grief? What’s in it for him?“To this day, I’ve not received one dime from Trump, not one free hamburger at the Trump hotel,” he said.So if it isn’t hamburgers, what is it?“Donald Trump is my friend,” he said. “He was my friend then, he’s my friend now. My friend is running for president, so I endorse my friend.” More

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      Revenge: analysis of Trump posts shows relentless focus on punishing enemies

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      A major study of Donald Trump’s social media posts has revealed the scale of the former US president’s ambitions to target Joe Biden, judges and other perceived political enemies if he returns to power.Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (Crew), a watchdog organisation, analysed more than 13,000 messages published by Trump on his Truth Social platform and found him vowing revenge, retaliation and retribution against his foes.The presumptive Republican nominee has threatened to use the federal government to go after Biden during a second Trump administration 25 times since the start of 2023, the study found. These threats include FBI raids, investigations, indictments and even jail time.He has also threatened or suggested that the FBI and justice department should take action against senators, judges, members of Biden’s family and even non-governmental organisations.“He is promising to go after what he perceives to be his political enemies,” said Robert Maguire, vice-president for research and data at Crew. “He is promising to essentially weaponise the government against anyone he sees as not sufficiently loyal or who is openly opposed to him.“He has constantly seeded this idea that the numerous charges against him are trumped-up charges and it seems almost to have given him licence to openly say, ‘You’ve done this to me, so I’m going to do it to you.’”Trump launched Truth Social in early 2022 after he was banned from major sites such as Facebook and the platform formerly known as Twitter following the 6 January 2021 attack on the US Capitol. Although he has since been reinstated to both, he has mostly stayed off X, as it is now called, the Elon Musk-owned platform that was once his primary megaphone.Trump reaches far fewer people on his platform, where he has fewer than 7 million followers, than he might on X, where he boasts 87 million. The research firm Similarweb estimates that Truth Social had roughly 5m monthly visits in February of this year. This compares with more than 2bn for TikTok and more than 3bn for Facebook.The study is part of a larger Crew project tracking and analysing Trump’s Truth Social posts. The watchdog says that Trump’s niche following means that the extent of his threats has flown mostly under the radar. There have also been concerns about Trump fatigue over the past decade, with some voters numbed and inured to statements that would have been jaw-dropping from any other president.Maguire said: “His comments are often reported on or discussed as one-offs. ‘Trump said this today,’ and people talk about it and then it fades away because Trump said something else the next day or the next week or the next month.“We figured it would be helpful to quantify these comments that he’s making to show this isn’t just a whim or a passing idea that he put out in the world because he saw somebody say something on TV. It’s a fixation of his, it’s a promise he’s making to use the government in ways that are squarely unethical.”Crew duly analysed more than 13,000 of Trump’s Truth Social posts from 1 January 2023 to 1 April 2024 and found that, while the former president has recently dialed down some of his more violent rhetoric, he remains fixated on threatening political opponents.View image in fullscreenIts report, the first in a series, says his attitude can be summed up in one Truth Social post from August 2023: “IF YOU GO AFTER ME, I’M COMING AFTER YOU!” Indeed, last December Trump posted a word cloud based on his speeches: the biggest word was “revenge”.Many of his threats to Biden reflect Trump’s now familiar tactic of reversing charges against his opponents, conjuring a mirror world in which he claims they are guilty of the very offence of which he is accused.In one post about the special counsel Jack Smith, he warned that there will be “repercussions far greater than anything that Biden or his Thugs could understand” and, if the investigations continue, it will open a “Pandora’s Box” of retribution.In another, Trump wrote that his federal indictments are “setting a BAD precedent for yourself, Joe. The same can happen to you.” In July last year Trump reposted rally coverage quoting him that “Now the gloves are off.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump has explicitly threatened Biden with a special counsel investigation and indictment. In one post he called on the attorney general, Merrick Garland, to “immediately end Special Counsel investigation into anything related to me because I did everything right, and appoint a Special Counsel to investigate Joe Biden who hates Biden as much as Jack Smith hates me”.In another he asked: “When will Joe Biden be Indicted for his many crimes against our Nation?” Trump has posted about this repeatedly, promising to appoint a special prosecutor to investigate Biden, and indict him if Trump returns to the White House for a second term.Trump has “reTruthed” others’ posts about Biden that are even more ominous. In June last year he reposted a clip from Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene asserting: “Joe Biden shouldn’t just be impeached, he should be handcuffed and hauled out of the White House for his crimes.”The former president also posted a screenshot of a different post saying the FBI should “raid all of [Biden’s] residences and seize anything they want, including his passports”.Some posts announced plans for retribution against the specific lawyers, judges and other officials whom Trump blames for his legal troubles. Two months before he was found guilty of 34 counts of falsifying business records, he reposted a call for the Manhattan district attorney, Alvin Bragg, to be “put in jail”.He has reposted calls for Jack Smith and others to be locked up and to “throw away the key.” One reTruth promised to charge the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, along with Bragg, Smith, Garland and Biden, with conspiracy and racketeering.Trump has also made threats to non-profit organisations because of their work. Last November he posted on Truth Social: “For any radical left charity, non-profit, or so called aid organizations supporting these caravans and illegal aliens, we will prosecute them for their participation in human trafficking, child smuggling, and every other crime we can find.”Crew argues that the posts should not be taken as empty threats but as a wake-up call for Congress to erect meaningful guardrails against the weaponisation of law enforcement agencies before it is too late.The group has called on Congress to pass the Protecting Our Democracy Act (Poda), which would curb abuses of power by presidents of any party and strengthen Congress’s ability to fulfil its constitutional role as a check on executive branch overreach. The legislation passed the House of Representatives in 2021 on a bipartisan basis but has since languished in the Senate.Maguire added: “It is critical in making sure that law enforcement and the Department of Justice – all of the things that that entails, both the federal prosecutors and the FBI – cannot be manipulated by the president to go after political enemies. That would go a long way to hamstringing any effort by any president, to be clear, to use those law enforcement powers to go against political enemies.” More

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      The Observer view on Donald Trump: utterly unfit for office, he should quit the race for the White House

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      It was the moment America, or at least America’s politicians and media, had been waiting for. It was the day justice finally caught up with Donald Trump. The former president’s manipulation of the 2016 election, by hushing up a sex scandal that threatened his chances, and his attempts to discredit a criminal justice system intent on punishing him, was famously thwarted. It was an all-time presidential and judicial first, a historic result that transformed Teflon Don into Felon Don, thanks to a jury of 12 ordinary men and women and a brave prosecutor, Alvin Bragg.Looked at another way, however, last week’s much anticipated dramatic denouement of the criminal trial of the New York playboy, billionaire and presumptive 2024 Republican presidential candidate may turn out to be less pivotal than anticipated. According to the US networks, most Americans tuned out weeks ago, not least because cameras were barred from the Manhattan courtroom. One not untypical public survey found that 67% of respondents said a conviction would make no difference to how they voted this autumn. The 34 guilty verdicts were an overnight sensation. But they may not significantly shift the political dial.The consensus view, around which most Republican and Democrat politicians, pundits and commentators swiftly coalesced, is that Trump’s disgrace will dog him for the remainder of the 2024 campaign – but will not doom him. It may even galvanise support. Evidence of the latter phenomenon came quickly. His campaign said it had raised a record $53m (£41.6m) in 24 hours after the verdict. There was a time, not long ago, when a criminal conviction would have destroyed a candidate’s chances. That time has passed.How can this be? It is, objectively, an extraordinary state of affairs. One explanation may be that twice-impeached Trump, possibly the most scandal-prone US president in history, has exhausted Americans’ capacity to be shocked. So egregious has been his behaviour, on so many occasions over the years, that no one is really surprised any more. Or perhaps this apathy and passivity are less to do with Trump and more with a broader public disillusionment with politics and politicians. Whatever the cause, it appears, regrettably, that Trump will ride out this storm and keep his bid for a second presidential term on track.Another key moment looms in early July, when Judge Juan Merchan, the target of his repeated contemptuous taunts, will decide how heavy a sentence to impose. Trump may escape jail given his age, 77, and the absence of prior convictions, although he could receive up to four years. A fine and probation look more likely. In any case, Trump has already signalled his intention to appeal. That process will almost certainly extend beyond the 5 November election. The three other major criminal trials Trump faces – over the alleged theft of classified documents, his role in the 6 January 2021 coup attempt, and electoral interference in Georgia – have all been delayed past polling day. Bottom line: if he defeats Biden, Trump will probably evade punishment entirely.If this prospect seems strange, even scandalous, then consider another big anomaly exposed by this trial. No previous US president, serving or retired, has been found guilty of a crime. Yet the hallowed US constitution makes no objection to Trump running for, and holding, the country’s highest office, even from inside a prison. This is another reason, along with the antiquated electoral college system and the politicisation of a rogue supreme court, to pursue urgent constitutional reform.Positive outcomes were not entirely drowned out by Trump’s unhinged post-trial ravings about a “rigged” process and the supposed threat posed by “millions” of terrorists and mentally unwell migrants seeking to “take over our country”. Most important is the fact that, in the end, Trump was forced to face justice like any other citizen. He is not above the law. He could not hide behind bogus claims of presidential immunity. In this instance, impunity and unaccountability, the twin curses of modern governance, did not prevail.The noisy theatrics, whingeing claims of victimisation and mendacious hype that characterised Trump’s trial performance have paradoxically served to make Biden look more stable, more sensible and certainly more statesmanlike. On Memorial Day, the president delivered a dignified speech at Arlington National Cemetery, ahead of this week’s anniversary of the 1944 D-day landings. While he was paying solemn tribute to America’s war dead, Trump was viciously ranting about “human scum” trying to “destroy” the country.Does Trump have any idea how bad this crude conduct makes him look, how diminished, mean and twisted? It’s a stark contrast with Biden, 81, always dapper and upbeat, if somewhat shaky on his feet. It is hard to imagine a less appealing pitch to the young first-time voters, independents and minorities who, pollsters say, could make all the difference in November’s half-dozen crucial swing states.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe margin of victory is predicted to be wafer thin again this autumn. Trump holds a tiny national lead, and has the edge in most of the battlegrounds. There is evidently all to play for. And while Biden remains a problematic candidate, Trump, on the forensic evidence of recent days, has proved again that he is a truly terrible one – and an unrepentant criminal to boot. He is unfit for office. He should stand down.Do you have an opinion on the issues raised in this article? If you would like to submit a letter of up to 250 words to be considered for publication, email it to us at observer.letters@observer.co.uk More

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      Minnesota Democrat Dean Phillips calls on New York governor to pardon Trump

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      The outgoing Democratic US representative who failed in his presidential primary challenge against Joe Biden called on the New York governor, Kathy Hochul, to pardon Donald Trump over his criminal conviction for hush-money payments to influence the 2016 election “for the good of the country”.Minnesota representative Dean Phillips, who was the first Democrat to call on fellow party member Henry Cuellar to resign following bribery charges against the Texas representative, urged for the pardon on Friday in a post on X.“Donald Trump is a serial liar, cheater, and philanderer, a six-time declarer of corporate bankruptcy, an instigator of insurrection, and a convicted felon who thrives on portraying himself as a victim,” wrote Phillips, who was first elected to Congress to represent a wealthier suburban area outside Minneapolis in 2019 but gave up seeking re-election to his seat in November to pursue his unsuccessful primary challenge to Biden.Hochul, Phillips added, “should pardon [Trump] for the good of the country”.In another X post on Saturday morning, Phillips doubled down on his call for leniency for the former Republican president.“You think pardoning is stupid? Making him a martyr over a payment to a porn star is stupid. (Election charges are entirely different),” he wrote. Referring to Trump’s claims that he has seen a spike in donations after his conviction, Phillips added: “It’s energizing his base, generating record sums of campaign cash, and will likely result in an electoral boost.”The chances of Hochul pardoning Trump seem slim. The Democratic governor’s statements after Trump’s conviction touted the rule of law, a principle under which “all persons, institutions and entities are accountable” to laws.“Today’s verdict reaffirms that no one is above the law,” Hochul said in a statement after a jury found Trump guilty on Thursday of 34 counts of felony falsification of business records.Hochul also said in a National Public Radio interview “Justice was served” – suggesting potential opposition to a pardon – continuing:“In the state of New York, if you commit a crime, and there’s evidence to demonstrate that you have met the standards of being arrested and brought to a trial and a jury of your peers considers all the evidence, then their verdict must hold.“And that’s exactly how the rule of law has always prevailed in our country. And this is no different. So I just want to make sure everyone knows our rule is no one is above the law.”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionTrump’s campaign claimed on Friday that he had raised $53m following the verdict – breaking GOP records, according to the New York Times. The newspaper notes that Trump’s predominant fundraising entity took in $58m over the second half of 2023, demonstrating the immensity of this windfall.Former Trump fixer Michael Cohen, who testified that he carried out the hush-money payment in 2016 while Trump successfully ran for the White House, expressed concern about Thursday’s conviction leading to prison time for the former president.Cohen’s remarks seemingly alluded to how Trump, in a separate criminal case pending against him, is charged with improperly retaining classified materials after his presidency and keeping them in areas that weren’t secure.“My concern is in a prison situation … He’s willing to give away the secrets, as I always say, for beggar tuna or a book of stamps, and he will do it because he doesn’t care,” Cohen said on MSNBC’s The Weekend. More

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      Donald Trump had lots of negative opinions about felons. Now he is one.

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      Donald Trump has spent years complaining that American police and the criminal legal system should be “very much tougher”, arguing that some criminals should not be protected by civil liberties, police should rough up suspects and a much wider range of people should face the death penalty for breaking the law.Now that the former president has been convicted on 34 felony counts for falsifying business records, Trump is arguing that the US legal system is out of control. “If they can do this to me, they can do this to anyone,” he said on Friday.Here’s a recap of some of Trump’s notable comments about “felons” and “criminals” – and a look at how the convict himself has actually been treated.Trump’s opinion: police officers should rough up suspects as they’re arresting themAddressing an audience of law enforcement officers on Long Island in July 2017, Trump told officers, “Please don’t be too nice”, and he mocked the idea of police making an effort to protect suspects’ heads as they’re put in the back of a police vehicle.“When you guys put somebody in the car and you’re protecting their head, you know, the way you put their hand over [their head],” Trump said, pantomiming the gesture. “Like: ‘Don’t hit their head and they’ve just killed somebody, don’t hit their head.’ I said: ‘You can take the hand away, OK?’”How Trump has been treated:On his way to his arraignment in the New York hush-money case last April, Trump was not getting roughed up by officers. He was instead posting angrily on his own social media platform about his feelings about his case. “Heading to Lower Manhattan, the Courthouse,” Trump posted on Truth Social. “Seems so SURREAL – WOW, they are going to ARREST ME.” Trump arrived to be fingerprinted and processed via his own eight-car motorcade.Trump also did not get roughed up on his way to jail last August in Fulton county, Georgia, where he faces criminal charges in a separate case related to interference of the 2020 election that he lost to Joe Biden. Instead, his lawyers reportedly arranged for him to surrender at the Fulton county jail during prime-time cable television viewing hours.View image in fullscreenAfter flying to Atlanta on a private plane, and being processed in an unusually fast 20 minutes, Trump did have to take a mug shot at the jail, which he later said was “not a comfortable feeling – especially when you’ve done nothing wrong”.Trump’s opinion: allowing defendants to be released before their trials is dangerousIn 2010, 16-year-old Khalief Browder was arrested on suspicion of stealing a backpack. The New York teen maintained his innocence, but his family could not afford the $3,000 it cost to bail him out of jail while he awaited trial.Browder ultimately spent three years incarcerated on Rikers Island before facing trial. Suffering from delays, physical abuse and solitary confinement, Browder attempted suicide multiple times. His horrific story would galvanize calls to end cash bail in New York state and nationwide.But Trump has stridently opposed abolishing cash bail. And when New York state embraced cash bail reforms designed to keep more people out of jail while presumed innocent and awaiting trial, Trump criticised the move as dangerous.“So sad to see what is happening in New York where Governor Cuomo and Mayor DeBlasio are letting out 900 Criminals some hardened and bad onto the sidewalks of our rapidly declining because of them city,” Trump tweeted in 2019. “The Radical Left Dems are killing our cities.”How Trump has been treated:The former president had enough money to keep himself out of jail (and continue running for a second presidency) while awaiting his criminal trial in Georgia, though a judge there set his bail at $200,000. (Working through bail bond companies, as Trump did, defendants there typically pay about 10% of the total bail amount upfront.)Trump’s opinion: criminals should be denied civil liberty protectionsIn 1989, after a white woman was raped and bludgeoned while jogging in Central Park, five Black and Hispanic teenagers were falsely accused of the crime, and they said they were coerced into confessing their purported guilt during police interrogations. Trump took out full-page ads in multiple newspapers calling for the city to “unshackle” police from “the constant chants of police brutality” and suggesting the juveniles should be executed for the heinous crime.“BRING BACK THE DEATH PENALTY,” the advertisements read. “Criminals must be told that their CIVIL LIBERTIES END WHEN AN ATTACK ON OUR SAFETY BEGINS.”Yusef Salaam, who was 15 years old at the time, later said that Trump’s advertisements had left the accused boys and their families frightened: “I knew that this famous person calling for us to die was very serious.”View image in fullscreen“I want to hate these muggers and murderers,” Trump had written in the ad. “They should be forced to suffer and, when they kill, they should be executed for their crimes. They must serve as examples so that others will think long and hard before committing a crime or an act of violence.”Even after the Central Park Five were completely exonerated, and the city eventually paid them a multimillion-dollar settlement for taking years of their lives through imprisonment, Trump refused to apologize for his high-profile comments – or to consider the men as innocent.“Why did they all sign confessions and how many people did they mugg [sic] that night in the Park?” he tweeted in 2013. “What about their criminal records?”How Trump has been treated:When Trump was arraigned in New York in the hush-money case in April, Salaam – one of the Central Park Five defendants – published his own advertisement on social media.Salaam argued that Trump’s response to his multiple legal cases had been to warn of “potential death and destruction”, and to repeatedly threaten judges, prosecutors, court staff and others – actions that certainly represented, in Trump’s own words, “an attack on our safety”.Even so, Salaam said, he did not believe Trump’s civil liberties should be suspended.“I am putting my faith in the judicial system to seek out the truth,” the wrongly incarcerated man wrote. “I hope that you exercise your civil liberties to the fullest, and that you get what the Exonerated 5 did not get – a presumption of innocence, and a fair trial.”Salaam added that he hoped, if convicted, Trump would endure his punishment with “strength and dignity”, which his teenage cohort did while serving time for a crime the group did not commit.Other commenters have noted that Trump was in a relatively privileged position to even have his New York criminal case go to trial before a jury. More than 90% of felony convictions at both the state and federal levels are the result of plea bargains – not jury trials. Trials are expensive and time-consuming, and those who cannot afford to pay for a lawyer (which is most people) must rely on overburdened public defenders, who are typically struggling with unmanageably large caseloads.Trump’s team of private attorneys is already preparing to appeal his conviction.Trump’s opinion: criminal penalties should be harsher and more violentIn the decades since his newspaper ads calling for the death penalty for the Central Park Five, Trump has repeatedly endorsed harsher penalties for a wide range of crimes, including threatening 10-year prison terms for anyone vandalizing a statue or other federal monument, suggesting that people who sell illegal drugs should be executed, and praising the president of the Philippines for his approach to drugs, which included the extrajudicial killings of thousands of suspected drug dealers by both police and vigilantes.View image in fullscreenTrump publicly suggested that soldiers could shoot at people at US borders who throw rocks at them, reportedly suggested in private in 2019 that soldiers shoot migrants in the legs to slow them down, and reportedly made a similar comment about shooting protesters in the legs during the height of the social justice demonstrations prompted by a Minneapolis police officer’s murder of George Floyd in 2020.And it wasn’t just talk: the Trump administration ordered federal prosecutors to pursue the heaviest possible sentences, resumed executing prisoners after 17 years of an informal moratorium on the death penalty at the federal level, pulled the justice department back from investigating local police departments for civil rights violations, and blocked small-business owners with criminal records from receiving federal relief during the coronavirus pandemic.“Criminals only understand strength!” the president tweeted in 2020, criticising Portland’s mayor for his insufficiently tough treatment of local protesters demonstrating against police violence.How Trump will be treated:While Trump falsely claimed he is facing “187 years” in prison after his felony convictions this week, the maximum penalty in his case is actually four years. Legal experts say that, as a first-time offender convicted of a nonviolent crime, Trump is unlikely to face any prison time at all. Instead, his punishment is likely to be some combination of fines, probation and community service.Trump’s opinion: repeated critical statements about felons votingTrump made multiple false claims about thousands of felons illegally voting in Georgia and tipping the 2020 election results against him, according to the Washington Post’s database of 30,573 false or misleading claims that he made as president.When a news report revealed that billionaire Michael Bloomberg had raised $16m in 2020 to support a Florida non-profit’s efforts to restore the voting rights of people with felony convictions, Trump denounced the effort as a crime and accused Bloomberg of trying to buy votes for Biden by “bribing ex-prisoners to go out and vote”. Top Republican officials in Florida announced an investigation into whether Bloomberg had violated the law, and they eventually decided he had not.How Trump will be treated:Despite his felony conviction, Trump is likely to be able to vote in November’s presidential election due to voting rights restoration rules in Florida and New York. If difficulties emerge, he could ask Florida’s governor, Ron DeSantis, who has endorsed him in the 2024 presidential race, for personal assistance restoring his voting rights. Regardless of whether he can legally cast a vote, his felony conviction does not stop him from running for president. More

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      Lawless and disorderly: Republicans line up behind Trump after conviction

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      A shameful day in American history. A sham show trial. A kangaroo court. A total witch-hunt. Worthy of a banana republic.These were the reactions from senior elected Republicans, who once claimed the mantle of the party of law and order, to the news that Donald Trump had become the first former US president convicted of a crime.It soon became clear that one of America’s two major political parties was determined to undermine faith in the US judicial system with expressions of rage and demands for revenge, creating an alternative view of the US in which Joe Biden is a clear and present danger to US democracy.Experts warned that by sowing distrust in institutions and the rule of law Trump, his supporters and his Republican allies were creating a political tinderbox ahead of November’s presidential election. In the coming months – especially as Trump faces sentencing in June – that sense of dread and fear of political unrest is likely to only increase dramatically.“We’ve entered new political & legal territory as a Nation,” historian Tim Naftali wrote on the social media platform X. “Donald Trump will now force every GOP candidate to trash our judicial system. There will be a chorus of poison likely worse than what we heard before Jan. 6th. Should he win, he’d have a more toxic mandate than in ’17.”On Thursday a jury in New York pronounced Trump guilty of 34 felony counts of falsifying business records. He will be sentenced on 11 July, four days before the Republican national convention in Milwaukee.While Democrats hailed the verdict as proof that America’s system of checks and balances remains robust, able to hold political leaders to account, the ex-president claimed the trial was “rigged” and a “disgrace”, adding: “The real verdict is going to be November 5 by the people.”His campaign fired off a flurry of fundraising appeals. One text message called him a “political prisoner”, even though he has not yet found out whether he will be sentenced to prison and most experts see it as highly unlikely. The campaign also began selling black “Make America Great Again” caps to reflect a “dark day in history”.Trump campaign aides reported an immediate rush of contributions so intense that WinRed, a platform the campaign uses for fundraising, crashed.Republicans rallied around Trump with both uniformity and ferocity, seeking to cast the justice system as biased and broken. Mike Johnson, who as speaker of the House of Representatives is the third most senior elected official in the country, called the trial a “purely political exercise, not a legal one”, and accused Joe Biden’s administration of participating in “the weaponisation of our justice system”.Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina said: “Absolute injustice. This erodes our justice system. Hear me clearly: you cannot silence the American people.” Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina implied that Trump’s conviction set a dangerous precedent of prosecuting former presidents: “Two can play this game.” Alongside a fundraising link, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida posted on X: “Don’t just get angry about this travesty, get even!”The hyperpartisan response illuminated a very different America from the 1970s when the supreme court ruled that President Richard Nixon must hand over tapes of Oval Office conversations that ultimately led to his resignation; Nixon complied rather than complaining of a kangaroo court or seeking to undermine the system.But in 2024 America is on a collision course between partisan politics and the rule of law. Analysts warned that the Republican backlash could tear at the social fabric in an already volatile election year.Tara Setmayer, a senior adviser to the Lincoln Project, an anti-Trump group, said: “That is the bigger crime here in the long term. The Republican party has now facilitated the continued onslaught against our democratic institutions.“The long-term consequences of the idea that our justice system or the rule of law is somehow corrupted because Donald Trump says so are immeasurable. We’re seeing that now where even in a court of law where the evidence is clear it’s not good enough. It’s the world turned upside down and the Republican party has enabled it.”Just as Trump has told his supporters “I am your retribution”, so his allies in rightwing media, who have spent months conditioning their audience to distrust the court’s verdict, deployed the language of vengeance. Some argued that, if Trump regains power, he should go after Democrats, prosecutors and journalists.Setmayer added: “If you look on social media platforms and the rightwing ecosystem, the reaction to the verdict was one of hysteria and threats against anyone who was in support of the verdict, particularly in the media. ‘Add them to the list. Buy guns and ammo. Get ready, gear up.’“The language is mobilising and violent and that is something that we should all be concerned about. Many of us who’ve been paying attention have warned about this. This is part of Trumpism. The violence and the retribution is the point and he’s laying the foundation for his followers to rationalise a violent response.”No presumptive party nominee has ever faced a felony conviction or the prospect of prison time, and Trump is expected to keep his legal troubles central to his campaign. He has long argued without evidence that the four indictments against him were orchestrated by Biden to try to keep him out of the White House.In the next two months Trump is set to have his first debate with Biden, announce a running mate and formally accept his party’s nomination at the Republican national convention. On 11 July he could face penalties ranging from a fine or probation to up to four years in prison. Both he and his political allies seem sure to continue exploiting America’s political polarisation and alternate realities.After Republicans gained narrow control of the House last year they set up a panel, chaired by the Trump loyalist Jim Jordan, to investigate “the weaponization of the federal government” and examine what they allege is the politicisation of the justice department and FBI against conservatives. Some have called for the impeachment of the attorney general, Merrick Garland.Nicole Wallace, a former communications chief for President George W Bush, said on the MSNBC network: “I think what is important is for us not to look away from what is broken. And what is broken is that one of the two parties does not respect the rule of law, not because they didn’t like what they saw, not because they saw something different in Judge Juan Merchan than we saw, but because they don’t like the result. And that is a flashing red light for our country.”Bill Galston, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution thinktank in Washington, added in a phone interview: “The process of delegitimising our institutions is very far advanced and here you don’t have to speculate. All you need to do is look at the surveys of trust in institutions and just about everything is at rock bottom.“Certainly the judiciary, for various reasons, is no exception. As the judiciary has gotten pulled into what many people see as partisan battles, trust has declined on both sides of the aisle. But the uniform Republican response to the outcome of this trial, which is likely to be sustained over many months, will have even more pernicious effects.” More

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      Trump’s verdict speech fact-checked: what he said and whether it’s true

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      Donald Trump delivered a rambling, incoherent speech laden with falsehoods and conspiracy theories from the atrium of Trump Tower, a day after the former president was convicted of all 34 counts of falsifying business records in his hush-money criminal trial.Here is a fact check of some of the things he said on Friday – and why they weren’t true.Trump claims the Joe Biden White House was behind his prosecutionDonald Trump claimed that the judge presiding over his hush-money case, Juan Merchan, and the court was in “total conjunction with the White House and the DoJ [Department of Justice]”. There is no evidence whatsoever supporting this claim.“This is all done by Biden and his people,” the former president said during a speech on Friday at Trump Tower.The accusation that Biden was behind the prosecution does not line up with the case’s facts.The elected district attorney of Manhattan, Alvin Bragg, brought the case against Trump. Bragg is a state official who does not report to the federal government.Biden does not have any authority over Bragg or his office – and there is no evidence that the Biden administration had anything to do with the case.Trump rails against ‘nasty gag order’ he claims no one else has facedTrump claimed he is under a “nasty gag order, which nobody has ever been under”. He also said he has had to pay thousands of dollars in penalties – and that he was threatened with jail.Under Judge Merchan’s order designed to protect trial participants from Trump’s abuse, the former president is barred from making – or directing others to make – public statements about witnesses concerning their roles in the investigation and at trial. It also covers prosecutors, other staffers of Bragg, and members of the court staff. However, Trump is allowed to say whatever he wants about Merchan and Bragg.Trump has been fined $10,000 for 10 violations of the gag order for posts on his Truth Social platform and campaign website. Merchan has warned Trump that he would “impose an incarceratory punishment” for “continued willful violations” of the order.Trump claims he wasn’t allowed to testifyTrump claimed that he wanted to testify “but the theory is that you don’t testify because … they’ll get you on something you said slightly wrong, and then they sue you for perjury”.Trump has previously railed about being silenced and falsely claimed he was not allowed to testify at the trial. But ultimately he made the personal choice to not take the stand in his own defense.Merchan earlier this month addressed the ex-president’s claims, saying: “I want to stress, Mr Trump, that you have an absolute right to testify at trial.” Merchan added that the gag order preventing Trump from verbally attacking witnesses did not affect his right to take the stand.Trump claims prosecutors were not allowed to look into alleged federal campaign violationsTrump claimed that prosecutors who charged him were not allowed to look into alleged federal campaign finance violations.In fact, Manhattan prosecutors did not charge him with federal violations but instead listed the allegations as one of three “unlawful acts” that jurors were asked to consider.Prosecutors said the other crime for which Trump was charged was a violation of a state election law barring conspiracies to promote or prevent an election by unlawful means.Trump claims he faces 187-year prison sentenceDonald Trump claimed the crime for which he was convicted meant that “I’m supposed to go to jail for 187 years”.The former president was found guilty of falsifying business records in the first degree in furtherance of another crime, a class E felony in New York. That is the least serious category and is punishable by up to four years in prison.But as a first-time, non-violent offender, it is unlikely that Trump will face a long sentence. Experts say he is unlikely to receive prison time at all.Trump claims polling shows him ahead after convictionTrump claimed that a Daily Mail poll taken after his guilty verdict showed that he was “up by six points”.The poll he was referring to was an online survey of 400 likely voters that measured his favorability ratings – and not voting intention.Of those who said the 34 guilty counts had changed their view of Trump, 22% said they had a more favorable rating compared with 16% who said they viewed him more negatively.In contrast, a YouGov poll showed that 27% of voters said the conviction made them less likely to vote for Trump, compared with 26% who said they were more likely to vote for him and 39% who said the verdict “makes no difference” in how they’ll vote.Trump claims defense wasn’t allowed to use its election expertTrump claimed that the judge did not allow his defense team “to use our election expert under any circumstances”.Merchan did not bar the defense’s campaign finance expert, Bradley A Smith, from testifying in the trial. Smith was permitted to testify.Instead, Trump’s lawyers decided not to call on Smith after Merchan declined to broaden the scope of questioning the defense could pursue. More