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      Biden ‘not sure he’d be running’ in 2024 if Trump wasn’t: ‘We cannot let him win’

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      The US president, Joe Biden, said on Tuesday that he is not sure he would be seeking re-election in next year’s election if he were not likely facing Republican Donald Trump.“If Trump wasn’t running, I’m not sure I’d be running,” Biden said at a fundraising event for his 2024 campaign outside Boston. “We cannot let him win.”The remarks came towards the end of his remarks as Biden spoke about the risks former President Trump poses to democracy, amid fears a second Trump term would be far more autocratic than the first.Biden also talked about Trump’s renewed calls to get rid of the Affordable Care Act and how America is “the only nation built on an idea”.In the past, Biden has spoken about how it was Trump’s remarks after the deadly white supremacist rally in Charlottesville, Virginia, in 2017 that there were “fine people on both sides” that inspired him to challenge Trump in 2020.“In that moment, I knew the threat to this nation was unlike any I had ever seen in my lifetime,” Biden said in a 2019 video announcing his run for president.Last month senior Democrats sounded the alarm after an opinion poll showed Biden trailing the Republican frontrunner Trump in five out of six battleground states exactly a year before the presidential election.Biden turned 81 earlier this month while Trump is 77, and polls show voters have concerns that both are too old to run again for the White House.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionEarlier in Tuesday’s fundraising event Biden spoke at length about his support for Israel and the need to figure out what happens after the current conflict in Gaza.“I’ve been a strong, strong supporter of Israel from the time I entered the United States Senate in 1973.” More

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      Zelenskiy unable to attend Senate briefing on Ukraine aid; Schumer blames Republicans for impasse – as it happened

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      Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will not be able to attend a scheduled briefing of senators on the situation in the country, the Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said.“Zelenskiy, by the way, could not make it … something happened at the last minute,” Schumer said. The Ukrainian leader was scheduled to virtually address the classified briefing for all senators at 3pm.Schumer said earlier in the day that the Senate would hold a vote on legislation to approve more military aid to Ukraine, but the package is opposed by Republicans who are demanding stricter immigration policies.Things are looking grim for the prospect of Congress approving new aid to Ukraine before the current tranche of military assistance is exhausted at the end of the year. Republicans, most notably House speaker Mike Johnson and Senate minority leader Mitch McConnell, spent today making it plain that they won’t support any further aid unless a compromise is reached on changes to border policies to crack down on migrant crossings – the sorts of proposals Democrats refuse to entertain. Democrats are furious, with Senate leader Chuck Schumer accusing the GOP of “hostage taking” that Ronald Reagan would not approve of.Here’s what else went on:
      Volodymyr Zelenskiy was scheduled to make a video address to senators, but canceled unexpectedly, and also did not attend a briefing to House lawmakers. Top Ukrainian officials, including chief of staff Andriy Yermak, were reportedly at the Capitol in his stead.
      The House will vote on formalizing the impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden next week, which Johnson said will protect the investigation against court challenges.
      Republican senator Tommy Tuberville dropped his blockade of most military promotions, which he started in February to protest a Pentagon policy helping service members access abortions.
      Johnson will release footage of the January 6 insurrection recorded by House surveillance cameras – but with rioters’ faces blurred out, so they aren’t prosecuted, he said.
      Patrick McHenry, the North Carolina Republican who was briefly the acting House speaker after Kevin McCarthy’s overthrow, announced he will not seek re-election.
      Democrat Jack Reed chairs the Senate armed services committee, and in a statement simultaneously condemned Republican senator Tommy Tuberville for blocking military promotions while cheering his decision to end the blockade:The top Senate Republican Mitch McConnell says he is encouraging his party’s lawmakers to oppose a bill that would approve military assistance to Ukraine and Israel but does not include the changes to border policy that the GOP is demanding.The Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer announced earlier today that he would on Wednesday hold a procedural vote on legislation itoapprove the military aid, which Joe Biden request in October. But such a bill would require the support of a least nine Republicans to pass the Senate, and the GOP is demanding the inclusion of provisions to restart border wall construction and prevent many asylum seekers from entering the United States.Even though a growing number of Republicans are opposed to continuing aid to Kyiv, McConnell has previously argued the money is necessary to counter Russia – but now says changing border policy is equally essential:CNN reports that Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy also did not attend a briefing for House lawmakers that he was scheduled to address virtually:Earlier in the day, Politico reported that his chief of staff Andriy Yermak as well as Ukraine’s defense minister and the speaker of parliament were on Capitol Hill to meet with lawmakers.Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelenskiy will not be able to attend a scheduled briefing of senators on the situation in the country, the Senate’s Democratic leader Chuck Schumer said.“Zelenskiy, by the way, could not make it … something happened at the last minute,” Schumer said. The Ukrainian leader was scheduled to virtually address the classified briefing for all senators at 3pm.Schumer said earlier in the day that the Senate would hold a vote on legislation to approve more military aid to Ukraine, but the package is opposed by Republicans who are demanding stricter immigration policies.Republican senator Tommy Tuberville has agreed to end his blockade of most military promotions in protest of a Pentagon policy paying expenses for some service members who travel to seek abortions, Reuters reports.Tuberville’s blockade began in February after the defense department announced the abortion policy, but has come under increasing fire from both Democrats and Republicans alike for endangering US national security by preventing the military from filling high-ranking command posts.The senator has lifted his holds of the promotion of about 400 officers, as well as other lower-ranked positions, Reuters reports, but continues to block a handful of high-ranking positions.“I’ve still got a hold on, I think, 11 four-star generals. Everybody else is completely released by me,” Tuberville said. “It was pretty much a draw. They didn’t get what they wanted. We didn’t get what we wanted.”Having been booted from the House, big-time liar George Santos has apparently moved on to a new career, but that did not stop him from falling for one Democrat’s prank, the Guardian’s Gloria Oladipo reports:Pennsylvania senator John Fetterman enlisted a Cameo video from disgraced lawmaker George Santos in “support” of the also-disgraced New Jersey senator Bob Menendez, with Santos telling Menendez to “stay strong” amid his legal woes.In a rare example of bipartisan financial support, Fetterman paid Santos, a Republican, $200 for the personalized video as a prank. Santos did not know the “Bobby” he was recording the video for was Menendez.Santos was expelled from the House of Representatives on Friday following a scathing ethics report that detailed his misuse of campaign funds. Ever since he has been selling videos on Cameo, a website that allows users to buy short, personalized videos from celebrities.On X, Fetterman said he wanted to provide Menendez with “encouragement” amid the “substantial legal problems” the New Jersey senator faces.“So, I approached a seasoned expert on the matter to give ‘Bobby from Jersey’ some advice,” Fetterman wrote on X.Anti-Trump Republican Liz Cheney is considering jumping to the presidential race as a third-party candidate to stop the former president from winning another term in office, the Guardian’s Edward Helmore reports:Liz Cheney, a leading Republican critic and antagonist of Donald Trump, has said she is considering mounting her own third-party candidacy for the White House, as part of her effort to thwart the former president from returning to the Oval Office.In her most explicit public statements to date on a potential presidential run, Cheney told the Washington Post on Tuesday she would do “whatever it takes” to block a Trump return.Cheney, the daughter of former Republican vice-president Dick Cheney, has previously floated the idea. But she had never explicitly stated if she was thinking of running as a semi-moderate Republican party candidate or would run as an independent.“Several years ago, I would not have contemplated a third-party run,” Cheney said in the interview. “I happen to think democracy is at risk at home, obviously, as a result of Donald Trump’s continued grip on the Republican party, and I think democracy is at risk internationally as well.”Cheney echoed that sentiment in remarks with USA Today. She said: “I certainly hope to play a role in helping to ensure that the country has … a new, fully conservative party. And so whether that means restoring the current Republican party, which looks like a very difficult if not impossible task, or setting up a new party, I do hope to be involved and engaged in that.”Things are looking grim for the prospect of Congress approving new aid to Ukraine before the current tranche of military assistance is exhausted at the end of the year. Republicans, most notably House speaker Mike Johnson, have spent today making it plain that they won’t support any further aid unless a compromise is released on changes to border policies to crack down on migrant crossings – the sorts of proposals Democrats refuse to entertain. Democrats are furious, with Senate leader Chuck Schumer accusing the GOP of “hostage taking” that Ronald Reagan would not approve of.Here’s what else has been going on today:
      The House will vote on formalizing the impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden next week, which Johnson said will protect the investigation against court challenges.
      Republican senator Tommy Tuberville may or may not be about to drop his blockade of military promotions.
      Johnson will release footage of the January 6 insurrection recorded by House surveillance cameras – but with rioters’ faces blurred out, so they aren’t prosecuted, he said.
      North Carolina Republican Patrick McHenry, who unexpectedly found himself leading the House for three weeks after Kevin McCarthy was ousted as speaker in October, has announced he will retire from Congress.McHenry will have served for two decades by the time he steps down at the end of next year, and three weeks of that period was spent as acting speaker until the chamber elected Mike Johnson as McCarthy’s replacement later in October.McHenry’s western North Carolina district is seen as strongly Republican, meaning he is unlikely to be replace by a Democrat. From his statement announcing his retirement:
      I will be retiring from Congress at the end of my current term. This is not a decision I come to lightly, but I believe there is a season for everything and—for me—this season has come to an end.Past, present, and future, the House of Representatives is the center of our American republic. Through good and bad, during the highest of days and the lowest, and from proud to infamous times, the House is the venue for our nation’s disagreements bound up in our hopes for a better tomorrow. It is a truly special place and—as an American—my service here is undoubtedly my proudest. Since being sworn in January 3rd, 2005, I have worked everyday to uphold the Constitution and the system of government our founders so wisely created.
      …
      There has been a great deal of handwringing and ink spilled about the future of this institution because some—like me—have decided to leave. Those concerns are exaggerated. I’ve seen a lot of change over twenty years. I truly feel this institution is on the verge of the next great turn. Whether its 1974, 1994, or 2010, we’ve seen the House evolve over time. Evolutions are often lumpy and disjointed but at each stage, new leaders emerge. There are many smart and capable members who remain, and others are on their way. I’m confident the House is in good hands.
      House Republicans will next week hold a vote to formalize their impeachment inquiry against Joe Biden, CNN reports:Former speaker Kevin McCarthy announced the start of the investigation in September, which centers on thus-far unproven allegations of corruption against the president in connection to his family members’ overseas business dealings.The House has thus far held one hearing as part of the inquiry, in which Republican-invited witnesses said they were not aware of any criminal activity by the president, but said the investigation was worth continuing.In a press conference today, the chamber’s Republican leader Mike Johnson said the vote is necessary to establish its authority to investigate the president:Reports have emerged that Republican senator Tommy Tuberville will drop his months-long blockade of most military officer promotions.According to CNN, the senator announced a press conference where he was expected to end to his campaign, only to quickly cancel it in favor of more informal remarks to reporters:Tuberville announced the blockade in February in protest of a Pentagon policy that will help active duty service members travel to seek abortions, if they are stationed in areas where the procedure is not accessible.The senator’s effort was criticized by Democrats and an increasing number of Republicans as jeopardizing national security by leaving important officer roles in the military unfilled. Last month, GOP lawmakers confronted him on the Senate floor about his blockade, while the chamber moved forward with a plan that would allow them to circumvent it:In yet another dismal sign for the prospects of Congress approving more military aid that Ukraine says it needs to fend off Russia’s invasion, Democratic Senate leader Chuck Schumer said Republican “hostage taking” brought negotiations to a standstill.Schumer’s remarks on the Senate floor were an indication that the two parties are far apart on an agreement on aid to Kyiv, with the New York Democrat blaming the GOP for insisting on passing immigration policies championed by Donald Trump – which his party’s lawmakers will never support.“If Republicans are unable to produce a broadly bipartisan immigration proposal, they should not block aid to Ukraine in response. They should not be resorting to hostage taking,” Schumer said. “That would be madness, utter madness. It would be an insult to our Ukrainian friends who are fighting for their lives against Russian autocracy. And it could go down as a major turning point where the West didn’t live up to its responsibilities and things turned away from our democracies and our values and towards autocracy.”He closed with a reference to Ronald Reagan, the Republican former president known for his opposition to the Soviet Union in the 1980s:
      Ronald Reagan would be rolling in his grave – rolling in his grave – if he saw his own party let Vladimir Putin roll through Europe.
      So, once again, I urge my Republican colleagues to think carefully about what’s at stake with this week’s vote. What we do now will reverberate across the world for years and decades to come.
      And history – history – will render harsh judgment on those who abandoned democracy for Donald Trump’s extreme immigration policies. More

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      ‘Whatever it takes’: Liz Cheney mulls third-party run to block Trump victory

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      Liz Cheney, a leading Republican critic and antagonist of Donald Trump, has said she is considering mounting her own third-party candidacy for the White House, as part of her effort to thwart the former president from returning to the Oval Office.In her most explicit public statements to date on a potential presidential run, Cheney told the Washington Post on Tuesday she would do “whatever it takes” to block a Trump return.Cheney, the daughter of former Republican vice-president Dick Cheney, has previously floated the idea. But she had never explicitly stated if she was thinking of running as a semi-moderate Republican party candidate or would run as an independent.“Several years ago, I would not have contemplated a third-party run,” Cheney said in the interview. “I happen to think democracy is at risk at home, obviously, as a result of Donald Trump’s continued grip on the Republican party, and I think democracy is at risk internationally as well.”Cheney echoed that sentiment in remarks with USA Today. She said: “I certainly hope to play a role in helping to ensure that the country has … a new, fully conservative party. And so whether that means restoring the current Republican party, which looks like a very difficult if not impossible task, or setting up a new party, I do hope to be involved and engaged in that.”Cheney added that she would make decision in the next few months, describing the threats facing the US as “existential”. She the country needed a candidate to “confront all of those challenges”, adding: “That will all be part of my calculation as we go into the early months of 2024.”The former Wyoming congresswoman was speaking as part of a book tour promoting Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning, which calls on the US to back pro-constitution candidates against what she describes as Trump enablers in Congress.“Every one of us – Republican, Democrat, independent – must work and vote together to ensure that Donald Trump and those who have appeased, enabled, and collaborated with him are defeated,” she wrote, calling it “the cause of our time”.With Trump 40 points ahead of 2024 Republican presidential primary challengers, she told the Post, the “tectonic plates of our politics are shifting”, upending conventional wisdom about third party candidates.The primary system process that produces a single Republican and Democrat presidential nominee, Cheney added, is “pretty irrelevant, in my view, in the 2024 cycle, because the threat is so unique”.If Cheney decides on a third-party run, she will join Robert F Kennedy Jr, Cornel West and Jill Stein. Other potential candidates include West Virginia’s soon-to-retire senator Joe Manchin, the former Connecticut senator Joe Lieberman, and ex-Maryland governor Larry Hogan.In a Harvard CAPS-Harris survey in November, Kennedy led the declared pack in terms of favorability at 52%. Kennedy scored higher than the runner-up Trump, at 51%, and Joe Biden, at 46%.“Robert Kennedy has positioned himself to appeal to members of both parties, though it is unclear how much of his ratings are from in depth knowledge of Kennedy versus his popular family name,” Mark Penn, co-director of the Harvard Caps-Harris Poll, told the Hill.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAgainst a backdrop of warnings that third-party candidates may only succeed in helping Trump win a second term in the White House, and others that it would do the opposite, polling suggests that a year out from the election voters are open to alternatives to the two-party lock-up.According to a Gallup poll in October, 63% of US adults currently agree with the statement that the Republican and Democratic parties do “such a poor job” of representing the American people that “a third major party is needed”.According to Pew Research in September, Americans’ views of politics and elected officials are unrelentingly negative. Elected officials are widely viewed as self-serving, ineffective and locked in partisan warfare. And a majority said the political process is dominated by special interests as well as campaign cash.On Monday, efforts to oppose No Labels and other third-party presidential bids ramped up with a $100,000 political advertising campaign funded by Citizens to Save Our Republic, a bipartisan group that has warned that any effort to upset democratic norms will play into Trump’s hand.“We are worried about any third party. We realize it is a free country. Anybody can run for president who wants to run for president,” former US House minority leader Richard Gephardt told reporters on Monday. “But we have a right to tell citizens the danger they will face if they vote for any of these third-party candidates.” More

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      Liz Cheney hopes for Democratic win with US ‘sleepwalking into dictatorship’

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      Liz Cheney, whose opposition to Donald Trump’s presidency alienated her from her fellow Republicans, has said she would prefer Democrats to win in the 2024 elections over members of her own party because she feared the US was “sleepwalking into dictatorship”.In an interview with CBS on Sunday, Cheney suggested a Republican congressional majority that would be subservient to another Trump White House presented a tangible “threat” to American democracy.“I believe very strongly in those principles and ideals that have defined the Republican party, but the Republican party of today has made a choice, and they haven’t chosen the constitution,” the former Wyoming congresswoman said when asked if she was rooting for Democratic victories in the 2024 election cycle. “And so I do think it presents a threat if the Republicans are in the majority in January 2025.”She went on to say that the US was “sort of sleepwalking into dictatorship” with Trump emerging as the clear favorite for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, notwithstanding the fact that he faces more than 90 criminal charges, including some for attempting to overturn his defeat in the 2020 election against his Democratic rival Joe Biden.Polls also suggest it would be a competitive race if Biden is rematched with Trump, who has been running on promises to use federal authorities to crush his enemies and to dramatically expand the immigration crackdown that his White House oversaw after his 2016 victory.“The tools that he is using are tools that we’ve seen used by authoritarians, fascists, tyrants around the world,” said Cheney, the daughter of the ex-congressman, defense secretary and vice-president Dick Cheney. “The things that he has said and done, in some ways, are so outrageous that we have become numb to them.“What I believe is the cause of our time is that we not become numb, that we understand the warning signs, that we understand the danger, and that we ignore partisan politics to stop him.”Cheney served as the vice-chairwoman of the US House committee which investigated the deadly Capitol attack staged by Trump supporters on 6 January 2021 in a desperate but failed attempt to prevent the certification of Biden’s victory in the election weeks earlier.Cheney and her colleagues recommended that the justice department file criminal charges against Trump in connection with the Capitol attack, portending the four indictments obtained against the former president this year.In her remarks on Sunday, Cheney asserted that the Republican US House speaker, Mike Johnson, was “absolutely” a collaborator in Trump’s attempt to remain in office after his 2020 defeat.Johnson voiced conspiracy theories about Biden’s victory; authored a supreme court brief as Texas sought to have key state results invalidated; and was among more than 147 Republicans who unsuccessfully objected to certifying the outcome of the 2020 election even after the Trump mob’s attack on the Capitol had been foiled.“What Mike was doing was taking steps that he knew to be wrong, doing things that he knew to have no basis in fact or law or the constitution … in order to attempt to do Donald Trump’s bidding,” Cheney said, echoing comments she has made in interviews and in her new book Oath and Honor: A Memoir and a Warning.Cheney said Johnson “can’t be” US House speaker when the new Congress takes its oath of office in early January 2025 and begins grappling with certifying the outcome of a presidential election the previous fall.“We’re facing a situation with respect to the 2024 election where it’s an existential crisis,” Cheney said. “We have to ensure that we don’t have a situation where an election that might be thrown into the House of Representatives is overseen by a Republican majority.”Cheney left office in January. She lost her bid to be re-elected to Wyoming’s sole House seat – which she had held since 2017 – after a Trump-supported challenger, Harriet Hageman, ran against her in a Republican primary.Hageman subsequently won a general election and succeeded Cheney in the House.Cheney’s thoughts do not seem to be her party’s mainstream position, if comments from the prominent US Republican senator Lindsey Graham are any indication.During an appearance on CNN, Graham – who has endorsed Trump – told Cheney that the former president “was far better” than Biden “in terms of actions and results”.“I think Liz’s hatred of Trump is real,” Graham said. More

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      A second Trump term will be far more autocratic than the first. He’s telling us | Jan-Werner Müller

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      The best predictor of future behavior is past behavior. Plenty of observers seem to think that’s all one needs to know as one beholds Donald Trump’s seemingly inevitable Republican nomination for president and possible second term. They assume that because it wasn’t fascism the first time, it cannot be fascism the second time; Trump is expected once more to be the bumbling, blustering buffoon, supervised by adults in the room.This relaxed view ignores that, with today’s pioneers of autocracy, things tend to only get really bad when they enter office the second time. The difference with Trump is not that he would leave democracy intact; the difference is that figures like the far-right Hungarian prime minister, Viktor Orbán, or Polish strongman Jarosław Kaczyński carefully hid their authoritarian plans. Trump, by contrast, is broadcasting everything in advance – and, if elected, will claim that he has a mandate to exact retribution and occupy the White House permanently.One of the great illusions of the 1990s was not, contrary to conventional wisdom, the belief that history had ended. Rather, it was the notion that democracies make mistakes but that their leaders are uniquely capable of correcting and learning from them. By contrast, the thinking went, autocrats cannot face up to problems; dictatorships are destined to end like the Soviet Union ended in 1991.Today, we should know better. Whether the likes of Orbán and Kaczyński always wanted to be autocrats is beside the point. The fact is that they, just like Trump, considered it deeply unfair that they had suffered election defeat (duly attributed to various enemies, from judges to hostile media outlets). When they came back to power, they had learned one thing for sure: not to waste political capital on culture wars, but to capture state institutions, ideally on day one, with the judiciary and the state bureaucracy as primary targets. For once you control the judges, you can go after the journalists, the teachers and the academics, and forever wage culture war to your heart’s content.Whether Trump personally has learned anything we can debate. But those around him evidently have. In 2025, they will not permit the “deep state” to frustrate the leader again; as a number of astute analysts have pointed out, there is a detailed scheme to replace perhaps up to 50,000 civil servants with political cronies, and bring the justice department under political control.It is typical for authoritarian populists to hijack the bureaucracy in broad daylight, advancing the argument that only they represent what populists call “the real people” (Trump’s very words to his supporters on January 6). After all, who is the state there for? The people, of course. Hence, when populists take over the state, they claim it’s really the people themselves rightfully taking possession of what is theirs. Recall Trump’s inaugural address, when he claimed that “we are transferring power from Washington and giving it back to you, the people”. The people never got it back, of course, because of the supposed “deep state”; this time must be different.The fact that the Heritage Foundation, a supposedly mainstream, sort-of-Reaganite conservative thinktank, has taken the lead in working out a plan to destroy the US administrative state is symptomatic of the fact that plenty of Republicans outside the immediate Maga cult have not only made their peace with an election denier and insurrection promoter but would appear to be onboard with threats Trump has spelled out in speech after speech: on Veterans Day, he promised to “root out the communists, Marxists, fascists and radical left thugs that live like vermin within the confines of our country, lie, steal, and cheat on elections, and will do anything possible, whether legally or illegally, to destroy America, and the American dream.”Other aspiring autocrats were probably also seething with resentment – but they carefully camouflaged their intentions as they prepared the path back to office. In 2010, Orbán could wait for power to fall into his lap, in light of the Hungarian center-left’s disastrous economic record and corruption scandals (which pale in comparison with what Orbán would end up doing in his kleptocratic system); he never announced that he sought to replace independent judges, destroy media pluralism and pass a new constitution.Trump is not hiding anything; nor does a figure like the Heritage president, who considers Hungary “not just a model for conservative statecraft, but the model”. Trump threatens that “either the deep state destroys America or we destroy the deep state”. Judges, journalists, anyone who didn’t do his bidding to steal the 2020 election, anyone in the Biden administration (communists!), anyone in foundations and universities declared by the Trump acolyte JD Vance to be “cancers on American society” – all should realize that he means it, and that self-styled center-right figures are not disavowing him.If Trump wins, he will claim that “the people” – for only his voters are the “real people” – democratically decided in favor of revenge and destruction.
      Jan-Werner Müller is a professor of politics at Princeton University. He is also a Guardian US columnist More

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      ‘Moderate’ or Roe v Wade killer: can Trump have it both ways on abortion?

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      A few months ago, the former president Donald Trump accused the Republican party of speaking “very inarticulately” on abortion. And yet, for the GOP presidential frontrunner, inarticulateness seems to be a feature, not a bug, of his own approach to abortion.Trump thinks he can run in 2024 as a “moderate” on abortion, Rolling Stone reported this week – even though he’s currently running ads in Iowa, a crucial state in the Republican primary, proclaiming himself “the most pro-life president ever”. It’s a title to which Trump has a legitimate claim: his three nominees to the supreme court not only handed the nation’s highest court a definitive conservative majority, but all three voted to overturn Roe v Wade in summer 2022.That move handed the anti-abortion movement the victory of a lifetime, but Republicans have been paying for it ever since. They underperformed in both the 2022 midterms and the 2023 Virginia state elections, losses that have been widely credited to the party’s inability to figure out a path forward on abortion. Abortion rights advocates, meanwhile, won every abortion-related ballot measure of the last 18 months, even in red states. After Ohio, seemingly a conservative stronghold, voted to enshrine abortion rights in its state constitution earlier this month, abortion rights activists rushed to remind Democrats that “abortion is a winning issue” in 2024.While Republicans have flailed over how to message on an apparently toxic issue, Trump has – in typical Trump fashion – flip-flopped on it with apparent ease. Shortly after the 2022 midterms, Trump blamed “the abortion issue” for Republicans’ poor performance. He has refused to say whether he supports a federal ban and called the decision by Ron DeSantis, the Florida governor, to sign a six-week abortion ban a “terrible thing”.But all the while, Trump continues to take credit for overturning Roe.“I was able to kill Roe v Wade,” he bragged on social media in May.Howard Schweber, a professor of American politics and political theory at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, said that “Trump has what, in my experience of observing politics, seems like a nearly unique ability to maintain cognitive dissonance in ways that his supporters find untroubling.“His supporters will say, ‘Oh, well, he really means that when he says’ – and then finish that sentence with whichever position they approve of. That’s the gamble that he’s taking,” he said.Trump has not said what, if any, specific abortion policy he would support as president. DeSantis has said that he would support a 15-week national abortion ban, a position championed by the powerful anti-abortion group SBA Pro-Life America. Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, has said that she would sign an abortion ban as president, but doubts that Republicans could muster the votes in Congress.Iowa has a reputation for conservative evangelicalism, but most Iowans believe that abortion should be legal in all or most cases. By not letting himself get nailed down on a specific abortion policy, Trump might be approaching Iowa as though the presidential primary is already over, said Tim Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa. (Which it very well be: Trump is polling far higher than any of his competitors, who have largely cratered.) In a general election, where voters are more likely to be less dogmatic, it can pay to be vague – particularly on a charged issue like abortion.“Things that you might say a little more forcefully during the nomination process during the primaries, you back off a little bit when it comes time to time for the general election,” Hagle said. “And that’s been a strategy of candidates for decades.”Republicans in Iowa have launched an effort to amend the state constitution and clarify that it does not protect abortion rights. In order for the amendment to show up on the ballot, the Republican-controlled state legislature would have to pass it before handing the measure to voters. That could backfire, increasing turnout among abortion rights supporters who oppose Trump.“But then we’re also talking about turnout in the presidential year, which is high anyway,” Hagle said. “So if you lose turnout in a midterm year, that’s going to make more of a difference than in a presidential year.”Most Americans oppose the overturning of Roe. But that doesn’t mean voters are all that motivated by it: numerous polls since Roe’s overturning have found that Democrats are highly energized by abortion, while Republicans are less so – a reversal of the status quo while Roe was the law of the land.As long as Trump wins the primary, he’s in little danger of losing the conservative evangelicals who oppose abortion rights. While they may want him to be more forceful on the issue, it’s improbable that they would turn to a Democrat in response to Trump’s reticence.“Sometimes the option is to not vote at all, but I can’t imagine that they would want to do that either,” Hagle said. “It does create a little heartburn on the part of the pro-life folks that supported him if all the sudden he’s taking a more moderating position, but he may see that that’s more appropriate given his electoral strategy.”Even people who say that they would like to keep abortion “mostly legal” are not always that invested in doing so. A recent poll from the New York Times – which did not look at Iowa – found that, among voters who want abortion to be “mostly legal”, Biden led by only one point. Those voters are also twice as likely to say they plan to vote based on economic issues, rather than social issues like abortion.Schweber, though, is convinced that there are would-be Trump voters who will defect solely based on their support of abortion.“Women voters – particularly middle-class and upper-class, suburban women voters – do take abortion rights seriously,” he said. In 2016, Schweber said Republican women told him, “It doesn’t matter, they’re never going to overrule Roe.”“That sense of security is obviously gone,” he added. More

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      The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory review: Trump and his evangelical believers

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      With The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism, Tim Alberta of the Atlantic, author of a previous blockbuster on Republican politics and, this year, the profile that helped bring down Chris Licht at CNN, delivers another essential read. It is substantive, news-filled and personal.“I have endeavored to honor God with this book,” he writes. The son of an evangelical Presbyterian minister who came to religion from finance, Alberta lays bare his hurt over how the cross has grown ever more synonymous with those who most fervently wave the Stars and Stripes, on the right of the political spectrum.“All nations before him are as nothing; and they are counted to him less than nothing, and vanity.” Isaiah’s teaching stands nearly forgotten.In his prologue, Alberta takes us back to summer 2019, and his father’s funeral. The Rev Richard Alberta died suddenly, of a heart attack. Regardless, a church elder delivered to Alberta a one-page screed expressing his disapproval of the author for not embracing Donald Trump as God’s anointed. Yes, the same guy who made “Two Corinthians” a punchline. Time, place and decorum were discarded. Alberta’s sins demanded rebuke.“I was part of an evil plot, the man wrote, to undermine God’s ordained leader of the United States. My criticisms of President Trump were tantamount to treason – against both God and country – and I should be ashamed of myself.”Alberta passed the letter to his wife.“What the hell is wrong with these people?” she cried.As many congregants would see it, probably nothing. The unidentified elder simply repeated sentiments that had taken root in evangelical America since Trump’s election in 2016. The letter embodied a shift that was decades in the making. Demographics were in flux. Barack Obama had occupied the White House. The spirit of Protestant dissent, which once fueled rebellion against the crown, had given way to declaring Trump a divine emissary, a modern-day Cyrus. Or Caesar.Funny how Obama never held such a place of honor. Then again, he was Black and liberal and his personal beliefs could be discounted. American evangelism had evolved into caffeinated American nationalism, white identity close to the surface.Franklin Graham, the late Billy Graham’s son, threatened Americans with God’s wrath if they had the temerity to criticize Trump. “The Bible says it is appointed unto man once to die and then the judgment,” he said, on Facebook.Another famous scion, the now disgraced Jerry Falwell Jr, admonished his flock to stop electing “nice guys”. Instead, he tweeted, “the US needs street fighters like Donald Trump at every level of government”. Resentment and grievance supplanted the message of scripture and “What would Jesus do?”Alberta remembers a preacher in Colorado who conflated a Republican midterms victory with the triumph of Christ. “May this state be turned red with the blood of Jesus, and politically,” Steve Holt prayed, at a revival in spring last year.“Lauren Boebert looked right at home,” Alberta recalls, of the far-right controversialist and congresswoman from the same great state. “Boebert wasn’t bothered by this pastor praying for Jesus’s blood – His precious, sacrificial blood, shed for the salvation of sinners – to win an election, because, well, she wasn’t bothered by much after all.”Months later, Boebert won re-election in a squeaker. Her recent behaviour at a performance of the musical Beetlejuice in Denver – singing, dancing, vaping, groping – simply confirmed what everyone had thought since she arrived on the national scene. She is profoundly unsuitable for power.Alberta grapples with the decline in evangelical affiliation and the growth of evangelical unpopularity. He is mindful of religion’s lack of purchase among younger Americans. Scandal, and the embrace of conservatism and Trump, has extracted a heavy price. “Religious nones” grow stronger at the polls. In 2020, more than one in five voters identified that way. White evangelicals made up 28%.Alberta also delivers a deep dive into events at Liberty University, the Virginia machine built by Jerry Falwell Sr and Jr.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotion“Jerry Jr told me … the school was building a new $35m facility,” Alberta writes. “There would even be a hologram of Falwell Sr preaching.”So much for the biblical injunction against worship of idols and images.“I actually own my father’s name and it happens to be my name too,” Falwell Jr is quoted as saying. By that logic, the sordid circumstances surrounding Falwell Jr’s marriage would be stains on his father’s legacy. “I like to watch”? It doesn’t scream piety or faith.These days, Falwell Jr litigates against the school his father built. Fallen from grace, he wants back in. Among his gripes is that present management is “choosing piety over competence”, Alberta quotes him as saying. “It’s exactly what my dad didn’t want to see happen.”Alberta also captures Trump’s true feelings for the evangelical community, or at least those who sided with Ted Cruz in the 2016 primary. “So-called Christians.” “Real pieces of shit.” Seven years on, it does not seem much has changed.According to recent reports, Trump has privately derided anti-abortion leaders as lacking “leverage” to force his hand while tweaking them for having nowhere else to go after the supreme court struck down Roe v Wade. He has reportedly mocked as “disloyal” and “out of touch” those evangelicals who cast their lot with Ron DeSantis. In Iowa, Trump holds a 30-point lead. DeSantis falls, Nikki Haley nipping at his (lifted?) heels. As November 2024 draws closer, a Trump sell-out of his evangelical supporters looms large.Alberta closes his book with a verse from II Corinthians, the Epistle of Paul Trump couldn’t get right: “So we fix our eyes not on what is seen, but on what is unseen, since what is seen is temporary, but what is unseen is eternal.”
      The Kingdom, the Power, and the Glory: American Evangelicals in an Age of Extremism is published in the US by Harper More

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      Federal judge rejects Trump’s attempt to dismiss 2020 election subversion case

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      A federal judge on Friday rejected Donald Trump’s attempt to dismiss his federal criminal case over his efforts to overturn the 2020 election results, ruling that he enjoyed no immunity from prosecution simply because it was based on actions he took when he was still president.The order by the presiding US district judge Tanya Chutkan simultaneously denied two of Trump’s motions to dismiss – on presidential immunity grounds and constitutional grounds – setting the stage for Trump to appeal to the DC circuit and ultimately the US supreme court.“The court cannot conclude that our constitution cloaks former presidents with absolute immunity for any federal crimes they committed while in office,” Chutkan wrote. “Nothing in the constitution’s text or allocation of government powers requires exempting former presidents.”“Defendant’s four-year service as commander in chief did not bestow on him the divine right of kings to evade the criminal accountability that governs his fellow citizens,” Chutkan’s 48-page opinion added.Trump’s lawyers had always expected to lose their initial attempt to toss the charges, which is scheduled for trial in federal district court in Washington next March, and to use the appeals process as their final strategy to delay the case as long as possible.The former president has made it no secret that his strategy for all his impending cases is to delay, ideally beyond the 2024 election in November, in the hopes that winning re-election could enable him to potentially pardon himself or direct his attorney general to drop the charges.Trump’s lawyers filed their motions to dismiss in October, advancing a sweeping and unprecedented interpretation of executive power that argued former presidents could not be held criminally accountable for actions undertaken while in office.The filing contended that all of Trump’s attempts to reverse his 2020 election defeat in the indictment, from pressuring his vice-president, Mike Pence, to stop the congressional certification to organizing fake slates of electors, were in his capacity as president and therefore protected.At the heart of the Trump legal team’s filing was the extraordinary contention that not only was Trump entitled to absolute presidential immunity, but that the immunity applied regardless of Trump’s intent in engaging in the conduct described in the indictment.The judge emphatically rejected the presidential immunity arguments in the opinion accompanying her order, writing that neither the US constitution nor legal precedent supported such an extraordinary extension of post-presidential power.“Whatever immunities a sitting president may enjoy, the United States has only one chief executive at a time, and that position does not confer a lifelong ‘get-out-of-jail-free’ pass,” Chutkan wrote. “Former presidents enjoy no special conditions on their federal criminal liability.”The judge appeared to take particular umbrage at the Trump lawyers’ claim that it was unconstitutional to charge Trump just because no other former presidents before him had been charged, writing that while his case was unprecedented, so too were the crimes for which he has been charged.“The supreme court has never immunized presidents – much less former presidents – from judicial process merely because it was the first time that process had been necessary,” Chutkan wrote, invoking US history and the pardon conferred to Richard Nixon after the Watergate scandalThe presidential pardon to Nixon was granted and accepted precisely to prevent the possibility of criminal prosecution over Watergate, the opinion said – without which, there would have been no need for a pardon in the first place.The judge noted, however, that she was not expressing an opinion on an adjacent argument Trump had raised about whether his actions related to January 6 could be prosecuted because they fell within the so-called “outer perimeter” of his duties as president.Chutkan’s denial came hours after the DC circuit also rejected Trump’s attempt to use a similar presidential immunity argument to protect himself from several civil lawsuits seeking to hold him accountable for inciting the violence that took place during the January 6 Capitol attack.In a statement, a Trump spokesperson attacked the order: “Radical Democrats, under the direction of crooked Joe Biden, continue to try and destroy bedrock constitutional principles and set dangerous precedents that would cripple future presidential administrations and our country as a whole, in their desperate effort to interfere in the 2024 presidential election.” More