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      We must start urgently talking about the dangers of a second Trump presidency | Margaret Sullivan

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      With Trump’s victory in New Hampshire, the battle lines are drawn for November. Unless something very weird happens, we’re looking at a Joe Biden and Donald Trump rematch.It’s time – past time, really – to sweep away any remaining delusions about the viability of a more moderate Republican challenger or what a second Trump term would bring.Now the question isn’t who’s running but whether American democracy will endure.To put it bluntly, not if Trump is elected.He’s already told us, many times over – and in abundantly clear terms – what he will do with a second term:He’ll prosecute his perceived enemies with the full power of the government. He’ll call out the military to put down citizen protest. He’ll never allow a fair election again.“Twelve more years” is no longer just a joke to pander to the raucous and red-capped faithful.“The serious scholars of fascism are now saying that the ‘F-word’ is merited,” Jeff Sharlet, a Dartmouth professor and author of The Undertow: Scenes from a Slow Civil War, told me in an interview on Wednesday.Do Americans really want to live in a fascist or authoritarian nation? Some may believe it will work out just fine – that the loss of freedom may hurt others, but not them – but most of us don’t want that. Or we wouldn’t if we were fully aware of the consequences.I talked with Sharlet about the actions that the mainstream press and regular citizens can take now that we know what we know.Newsrooms big and small, he believes, need to educate their staffs about the dangers of fascism.“There needs to be a pause,” he said, in coverage as as usual, and an internal reckoning. Sharlet suggests that media leaders bring in scholars – for example, Yale’s Timothy Snyder, who wrote On Tyranny – to lead newsroom discussions, based on clear historical precedent. Ruth Ben-Ghiat, author of Strongmen: Mussolini to the Present, would be another excellent choice.After the New York Times wrote that Trump’s New Hampshire win “raises questions” about Nikki Haley’s path forward, Sharlet scoffed, noting that such questions have been settled for some time “but a press built for the horse race keeps touting a path that never existed when it should be retooling itself to cover a rapidly mutating fascism”.Is such a retooling really possible? Of course it is.The fact that many newsrooms now have democracy teams or democracy reporters suggests that they understand the problem to some extent. But they need to get much more urgent about it.That kind of change takes clear leadership from the top.The New York Times – now more influential than ever, as other news organizations shrink and fade by the day – should set an example. Its top editor, Joseph Kahn, with his background as a foreign correspondent in China, is extremely well positioned to take the lead.As NYU professor Jay Rosen so memorably put it, coverage must refocus: “Not the odds but the stakes.” We do see “stakes” stories, of course, including on the Times front page, but it’s inarguable that horserace coverage still dominates.What, exactly, we are racing toward is a question worth asking in every day’s politics coverage.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionWhat about regular citizens?Perhaps most importantly, they need to stop tuning out. They shouldn’t throw up their hands and decide not to care about politics or the future of the country.“People need to pay attention to the exhaustion they feel and know that it is a symptom of acquiescence and adaptation,” Sharlet told me.As Ben-Ghiat told me on my American Crisis podcast, that exhaustion is part of the strongman’s playbook.Trump creates chaos, and we grow tired of it. Weary of the relentless flow of bad news, the dire warnings, the anxiety, we retreat into our personal lives or our political bubbles.More advice from Sharlet for citizens: form a “boring book club” and read – for example – Project 2025 from the Heritage Foundation, the shocking (and nearly 1,000-page) rightwing plan to dismantle the federal government and install political allies after a Trump election.As the Associated Press wrote: “Trump-era conservatives want to gut the ‘administrative state’ from within, by ousting federal employees they believe are standing in the way of the president’s agenda and replacing them with like-minded officials more eager to fulfill a new executive’s approach to governing.”Neither politics reporters nor regular citizens need to become full-blown scholars of authoritarianism over the next nine months.But failing to understand and act upon what’s at stake – either out of ennui or because “we’ve always done it that way” – is dangerous.Now, with the clarity of the New Hampshire primary behind us, it’s high time to take things seriously.
      Margaret Sullivan is a Guardian US columnist writing on media, politics and culture More

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      How an alleged office romance could derail the Trump election interference case

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      After spending nearly three years seeking to hold Donald Trump and his allies accountable for trying to overturn the 2020 election, the Fulton county district attorney, Fani Willis, faces a series of imminent, critical choices that could upend her consequential case against the former president and 14 remaining co-defendants.“The stakes could hardly be higher,” said Clark Cunningham, a law professor and ethics expert at Georgia State University.Michael Roman, a seasoned Republican operative and one of the defendants in the wide-ranging racketeering case, filed a motion earlier this month seeking the disqualification of Willis and Nathan Wade, an outside lawyer hired by Willis in 2021 to assist with the Trump case. In court filings, Roman alleged Willis and Wade were in a romantic relationship and Wade had used some of the more than $650,000 he earned from his work for her to pay for vacations for the two of them. Bank records made public last week showed Wade had paid for tickets for himself and Willis to California in 2023 and Miami in 2022.Neither Willis nor Wade has confirmed or denied a romantic relationship yet, and Willis has said she will respond in a court filing due on 2 February. A hearing on the request is set for 15 February. Willis has said all of the special prosecutors she hired were paid the same rate.While experts cautioned they were waiting for Willis and Wade to respond to Roman’s claims, it has already caused a headache for Willis, whose case has long been seen as one of the strongest efforts to hold Trump accountable for 2020. Because the case is in Georgia state court, it is also immune from Trump’s interference should he win the election.“As a legal matter, I don’t see much of anything as of yet that would make me think that a disqualification is likely,” said Anthony Michael Kreis, a law professor at Georgia State University who has closely followed the case. “In terms of the political bucket, it is both an optics disaster, but it’s also been a lot of political malpractice from the office for not responding. So this drip, drip, drip is a problem.”A disqualification would upend the case against Trump and significantly delay it. If the judge Scott McAfee were to disqualify Willis’s office from handling the case, the executive director of the Prosecuting Attorneys Council of Georgia would appoint a replacement. There’s no time limit on how long that could take. “It could entirely derail the entire enterprise,” Kreis said.Wade was a municipal judge and well-known lawyer in the Atlanta suburbs with little prosecutorial experience before Willis hired him to work on the Trump case. The two met in 2019 during a legal education course for judges, and he became a confidante and mentor to Willis. Willis told the New York Times in 2022 that Wade was not a first choice to work on the prosecution team, but that she approached him after other more experienced lawyers turned her down. Wade was tepid, too, she told the Times, telling her he didn’t have much prosecutorial experience. She eventually convinced him to join the team. “I need someone I can trust,” she told the Times.View image in fullscreenRoman’s accusation has prompted national interest in Wade’s ongoing divorce. Willis was subpoenaed for a deposition as part of that case, but a judge this week put off requiring her to testify.Regardless of what happens legally, Trump is likely to use the salacious allegation to continue to try to undermine Willis’s credibility. While his lawyers did not join Roman’s motion, Trump has already weighed in.“When is the Great State of Georgia dropping the FAKE LITIGATION against me and the others? ELECTION INTERFERENCE! The case is a FRAUD, just like D.A. Fani Willis and her ‘LOVER’,” he wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform on 20 January.Norman Eisen, a former “ethics czar” under Barack Obama, has been supportive of Willis, and argued that disqualification isn’t merited under Georgia law. Still, he has called for Wade to step aside.“Questions about gifts and related matters go to Willis’s and Wade’s obligations to the Fulton County District Attorney’s office, and have no connection to assuring the defendants a fair trial,” he wrote in an essay in Just Security with the former US attorney Joyce White Vance and Richard Painter, a former ethics czar under George W Bush.“Although the Georgia law on disqualifying a prosecutor would permit Wade to remain on the case as well, in our view he should voluntarily step down. His continued presence will create a distraction, and his departure, in addition to an on-the-record hearing in court, is the best path to dispense with any lingering concerns,” they wrote.Willis has had a brush with disqualification already. In July of 2022, when a special purpose grand jury was still investigating the case, she held a political fundraiser for Charlie Bailey, the Democratic opponent of Burt Jones, the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor, who served as a fake elector for Trump in 2020. Jones was under investigation by the special purpose grand jury at the time. Judge Robert CI McBurney disqualified Willis’s office from handling any part of the case against Jones.“An investigation of this significance, garnering the public attention it necessarily does and touching so many political nerves in our society, cannot be burdened by legitimate doubts about the District Attorney’s motives,” McBurney wrote in his disqualification order. A replacement special prosecutor still has not been appointed.McBurney also admonished the DA’s office during a hearing, calling it “a ‘What are you thinking?’ moment”.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionStephen Gillers, a legal ethics expert at New York University, agreed that there was no conduct identified in Roman’s motion that would cause the indictment to be dismissed – an opinion shared by other experts.“Indictments do not get dismissed because of behavior like this. Nothing about the allegations suggests that the indictment is in any way tainted,” he said in an interview.He also agreed that Willis’s conduct likely would not result in disqualification. And the fact that Wade was paid a high hourly rate was not in itself grounds for him to be disqualified. “Every lawyer who bills by the hour has that interest. Hourly billing is quite common nationally. So of course the lawyer has an interest in a continuation of a case,” he said.Still, Gillers said he was concerned by the vagueness of the invoices Wade had submitted and that were approved by the Fulton county district attorney’s office. They would not pass muster at most government agencies or corporations, he said.“They’re generic, they are in whole numbers. Eight hours, six hours, seven hours. They don’t break down the particular tasks that were done. For someone like me, looking at that, that’s a red flag,” he said.“In my view, he has to step aside, unless the board of commissioners or other Fulton county official, knowing all the facts, approves of the arrangement, and designates someone other than Willis to review Wade’s bills,” he continued. “His position is tainted by the romantic relationship unless there is informed consent from the appropriate authority in Fulton county.”By filing the allegations as part of the court case, and not directly with a disciplinary body, Roman may have made a strategic decision to try and muddy the legal issues in the case, understanding the optics for Willis would look bad, he added.Cunningham said he was waiting for more information to evaluate the merits of Roman’s disqualification claim. But regardless of what McAfee rules, he said, there are likely to be efforts to appeal that could drag out the case. Willis, he said, should step aside from the case and let a chief deputy or someone else take over and decide whether Wade continues on the case.“The argument that the case as it moves forward is being motivated improperly goes away. That is absolutely the best way to make sure that the motion to disqualify isn’t granted,” he said.“It minimizes it just to say it’s a question of optics, though that’s certainly the case,” he said. “Right now, they’re the story. Every day. And that’s bad in every possible way. It’s not good for public confidence in this case, which is needed.” More

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      Tim Scott’s behaviour around Trump is ‘humiliating’, says the Rev Al Sharpton

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      The South Carolina Republican senator Tim Scott’s behaviour around Donald Trump is “humiliating”, the civil rights leader Rev Al Sharpton said.“It was humiliating to watch what Tim Scott did as a sitting senator,” Sharpton told MSNBC, for which he hosts a show, after Scott appeared with the former president in New Hampshire, where Trump won the Republican presidential primary on Tuesday.Trump faces 91 criminal charges (including 17 for election subversion), civil lawsuits (one arising from a rape claim a judge called “substantially true”) and attempts to keep him off the ballot for inciting an insurrection.Regardless, his only remaining rival for the Republican nomination is Nikki Haley, who in 2012, as governor of South Carolina, appointed Scott to the US Senate.The only Black Republican in that chamber, Scott ran for president himself but dropped out early, endorsing Trump before New Hampshire.Sharpton, president of the National Action Network, said: “I think [Trump] will be the nominee. And I think he’s demanding people bow to him.“There are few moments in my life [when] I’ve been more embarrassed than to watch Tim Scott. You know, I know Tim and I are both practicing Christians, but I don’t know if he could pray like that to the other side. It was humiliating to watch what Tim Scott did as a sitting senator. And at one time … he wasn’t even on the script, he interrupted Trump to pay homage.”In Nashua, Trump said: “Did you ever think [Haley] actually supported you, Tim? And you’re the senator of her state. And [you] endorsed me. You must really hate her.”Interrupting, Scott said: “I just love you.”“That’s why he’s a great politician,” Trump said.Sharpton said: “It’s not a fine day in my life to watch [Scott] do that. To think that we fought to see people like him, Black, become high-elected in the south … he has a right to be Republican, he has a right to [endorse] Donald Trump, but to do it in such a way that is so humiliating was troubling. Let’s put it that way. I’m going to try to be as nice as I can.”Other critics were less nice.Etan Thomas, an NBA player turned writer, said: “Good Lord, Tim Scott. Shaking my head.”Tara Setmayer, a Republican operative turned Trump opponent, asked: “Who’s worse? Trump or his court jester enablers?”skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe author Jeff Sharlet said: “I hold Tim Scott in contempt, but the depth of self-abasement here is hard to look at. All the more so for understanding how Trump’s supporters see it, a racist inoculation against charges of racism that in turn ‘permits’ more racism.”On CBS, Scott was asked about his decision to oppose Haley.“Let’s not forget that President Trump appointed Nikki Haley to be an ambassador [to the United Nations],” Scott said. “So she’s certainly campaigning against him.”He claimed he had not heard Trump suggest that as president he would investigate Haley if she did not drop out. His host pointed out that Trump said Haley had “a very bad night” and added: “I don’t get angry, I get even” as cameras caught Scott laughing.“I did,” Scott conceded. “I did.”Asked about speculation he could be Trump’s running mate, Scott said: “The only conversation I had with [Trump] about being vice-president was, ‘I’ll never ask you to be vice-president, I’ll never ask to be part of your cabinet.’”Pressed on whether he would like to be vice-president, Scott declined to answer. More

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      Biden attacks Trump after securing UAW endorsement; union says Trump is ‘against everything we stand for’ – as it happened

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      “We have more work to do but our plan is delivering to the American people, building an economy from the bottom up, not the top down,” said Biden.“If I’m going to be in a fight, I want to be in a fight with you, UAW. We have a big fight in front of us. We’re fundamentally changing the economy of this country, taking it from the economy that takes care of those at the top… All anyone wants is just a fair shot, an even shot,” he added.”“You’re the heroes of this story,” he continued.Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.”“He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.Here is a wrap-up of the day’s key events:
      The United Auto Workers union has endorsed Joe Biden for re-election as president. Addressing the union, UAW president Shawn Fain said: “This November, we can stand up and elect someone who stands with us and supports our cause, or we can elect someone who will divide us, and fight us every step of the way.”
      Joe Biden addressed the UAW at its conference in Washington DC and was met with repeated applause and cheers following the union’s endorsement of him. “I’ve always fought for a strong auto industry… You deserve to benefit when these companies thrive… Record profits mean record contracts,” said Biden, adding, “We build in America, we buy in America.”
      Joe Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.” “He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.
      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck. Biden also made some changes to his campaign team, bringing in reinforcements from the White House.
      Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel called on Nikki Haley to drop her 2024 presidential bid, the day after Trump beat her in the New Hampshire primary. “Looking at the math and the path going forward…I don’t see it for Nikki Haley,” said McDaniel.
      Nikki Haley vowed to carry on her campaign despite losing the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin. She immediately headed to her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on 23 February.
      Donald Trump comfortably won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday evening, beating his only remaining credible contender, Haley, into second place. It was not a crushing victory but it was solid.
      Ryan Binkley, a Texas pastor and co-founder of a financial services firm, remains committed to becoming the US’s next president. Binkley, who received 0.1% of the votes – or 284 votes – in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, has his eyes now set on Nevada. “Please keep spreading the word about http://Binkley2024.com as I move forward to Nevada,” he wrote on X.
      That’s it from me, Maya Yang, as we wrap up the blog for today. Thank you for following along.Ryan Binkley, a Texas pastor and co-founder of a financial services firm, remains committed to becoming the US’s next president.Binkley, who received 0.1% of the votes – or 284 votes – in the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, has his eyes now set on Nevada.In a post on X, Binkley thanked New Hampshire residents, saying:
      “New Hampshire: Thank you for a great few days. I enjoyed the time and conversation around issues that matter to all Americans. Thank you for being #FITN [’first in the nation’]. Please keep spreading the word about http://Binkley2024.com as I move forward to Nevada.”
      He went on to include several hashtags including “#WhoIsRyanBinkley.”Binkley, who launched his presidential bid nine months ago, has spent more than $8m of his own money on his campaign.Explaining his decision to run, Binkley said, “God spoke to me.”Here is video of United Auto Workers president Shawn Fain announcing UAW’s endorsement of Joe Biden: Fain said:
      “We need to know who is going to stand up with us and this choice is clear. “Joe Biden bet on the American worker, while Donald Trump blamed the American worker! We need to know who’s going to sit in the most powerful seat in the world and help us win as a united working class. So if our endorsements must be earned, Joe Biden has earned it!”
      Biden concluded his speech to a room full of applause, saying, “It’s never ever ever been a good bet to bet against the American people.”“I’ve never been more optimistic about America’s future… There’s nothing beyond our capacity when we work together,” he added.“We have more work to do but our plan is delivering to the American people, building an economy from the bottom up, not the top down,” said Biden.“If I’m going to be in a fight, I want to be in a fight with you, UAW. We have a big fight in front of us. We’re fundamentally changing the economy of this country, taking it from the economy that takes care of those at the top… All anyone wants is just a fair shot, an even shot,” he added.”“You’re the heroes of this story,” he continued.Biden also condemned Donald Trump’s policies, saying, “He’s the only president other than Herbert Hoover who lost jobs when he was president.”“He cut taxes for the very wealthy and the biggest corporations. He shipped good paying jobs overseas because labor was cheaper… It hollowed out entire communities, closing factories, I’m not making this up, you know this to be true,” Biden added.“I strongly believe a company’s transition to new technology should…include every hire in the same factories in the same communities with comparable wages,” said Biden.“Existing union workers should have the first shot at these jobs,” he added.“I don’t believe any company should be using threats or tactics to stand in the way of workers’ righst to organize. Period,” he continued.The crowd descended into a united chant of “UAW!” as Biden looked on.“We build in America, we buy in America,” said Biden. “Because of you, Toyota, Volkswagen, Nissan…all gave their workers double digit raises. Because of you!” he said.“I’ve always fought for a strong auto industry… You deserve to benefit when these companies thrive… Record profits mean record contracts,” Joe Biden told a cheering crowd.“I’m tired of jobs going overseas… But not anymore. We’re building products here and shipping overseas!” he added.The influence of the union, a symbol of America’s working class, cannot be understated.The endorsement secures a major win for Biden, who hoped to win the group’s favor after appearing on a picket line with striking auto workers last fall – a first for a sitting president. Biden said it was his goal to “be the most pro-union president ever.”A grateful Biden has now taken the stage after receiving UAW’s endorsement.“This November, we can stand up and elect someone who stands with us and supports our cause, or we can elect someone who will divide us, and fight us every step of the way,” UAW president Shawn Fain said.“That’s what this choice is about. The question is, who do we want in that office to give us the best shot of winning?”“Biden!” someone could be heard shouting from the crowd.The endorsement of UAW is likely to send a message that Biden is on the side of working-class Americans – a group the Trump campaign has tried to court in the past.Addressing the union, UAW president Shawn Fain spoke of unity and putting fear in the hearts of the billionaire class.“They try to weaken us by dividing us,” Fain said, referring to large corporations that take the lion’s share of profits. “The wealthy divide the masses as the rich walk away with all the money.”Biden is about to address the United Automobile Workers union at their conference held in Washington. The powerful labor group is expected to endorse the president for a second term, AP reports. It’s good news for Biden who needs to make gains in key swing states like Michigan and Wisconsin, where auto-manufacturing is major industry.UAW also endorsed Biden in 2020.Joe Biden is about to address the annual conference of the United Auto Workers union, in Washington, DC, and reports are multiplying that the union intends to endorse him for re-election as US president.The Democrat from working class Scranton has frequently called himself the most pro-union US president and he became the first sitting president to appear on a picket line when he supported the auto workers in their industrial action against the big three makers of Ford, General Motors and Chrysler vehicles last fall.Outlets including NBC, CNN and the New York Times are among those citing sources that the UAW will endorse Biden this afternoon. Reuters cited the NYT in its report.Biden told striking workers last September in Michigan that they deserved a big pay rise, after years of wage scrimping while their corporations did well. The workers ended up getting deals and resolving the strikes.The Senate this afternoon is expected to confirm Jacquelyn Austin to become a US district judge South Carolina and Cristal Brisco to become a US district judge in the northern district of Indiana.The two women will bring the total number of Black women appointed to lifetime seats on the federal bench in Joe Biden’s presidency to 35.Judge Brisco will be the first Black judge and first woman of color to serve as a lifetime judge on the northern district of Indiana. Judge Austin will be the third Black woman to serve as a lifetime judge on the district of South Carolina and the only Black woman who will be currently serving, the Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights noted in a statement earlier today.“Milestones like this are important. The Senate’s confirmation of 35 Black women – many of whom have worked to advance civil and human rights throughout their legal careers – to lifetime appointments on our federal courts continues the Biden administration’s historic progress toward building a judiciary that reflects and represents the vast diversity of our nation. We celebrate this progress, including the critical yet underrepresented legal backgrounds that many of these judges bring to the bench,” said Lena Zwarensteyn, senior director of the fair courts program at The Leadership Conference on Civil and Human Rights.Asked about the milestone at a media briefing in the west wing earlier, White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said that Joe Biden “has been very proud of the women, the women of color, that he has been able to put forward for these positions…It’s important that we have this kind of representation, representation matters.”It’s been a lively morning after the night before in New Hampshire and there’s much afoot in Washington and on the campaign trail, so follow events here as they happen.Here’s where things stand:
      Joe Biden’s re-election campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck. Biden also made some changes to his campaign team, bringing in reinforcements from the White House.
      Republican National Committee chair Ronna McDaniel called on Nikki Haley to drop her 2024 presidential bid, the day after Trump beat her in the New Hampshire primary.
      Joe Biden won New Hampshire’s Democratic presidential primary, even though the incumbent refused to campaign in the state and had to rely on a write-in campaign powered by his allies and surrogates to secure a victory.
      Nikki Haley vowed to carry on her campaign despite losing the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin. She immediately headed to her home state of South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary on 23 February.
      Donald Trump comfortably won the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday evening, beating his only remaining credible contender, Haley, into second place. It was not a crushing victory but it was solid.
      Dean Phillips, the Democratic congressman from Minnesota, is pushing on with his 2024 bid for president.On Wednesday, Phillips departed for South Carolina ahead of the state’s primaries next month. According to his campaign, Phillips is set to greet patrons at the Bistreaux by Fleur de Licious, a restaurant in the state capital Columbia, this evening.Speaking to ABC on Tuesday, Phillips vowed to stay in the race, saying,
      “The country would be much happier with a Dean Phillips-Nikki Haley matchup this November. I know she’s hearing that. I’m hearing the same thing.”
      Donald Trump spent his victory night in New Hampshire privately seething to his aides, according to reports.CNN reports that after the polls for the state’s primary closed, Trump “continued to rail against Nikki Haley privately and publicly after she declined to drop out of the race”.The ex-president also reportedly told his aides that he was baffled that Haley remains adamant about staying in the race, and urged his political aides to ramp up their attacks on his former UN ambassador.During his speech last night, Trump issued a warning to Haley, saying: “Just a little note to Nikki. She’s not going to win. But if she did, she would be under investigation by those people in 15 minutes, and I could tell you five reasons why already.”He added: “Not big reasons, little stuff that she doesn’t want to talk about, that she will be under investigation within minutes, and so would Ron [DeSantis] have been, but he decided to get out.Joe Biden’s campaign expressed confidence in the president’s ability to again defeat Donald Trump in November, even as polls show the two men running neck and neck.Quentin Fulks, Biden’s deputy campaign manager, noted that Trump’s 11-point margin of victory in New Hampshire last night was actually narrower than his 20-point win in 2016, when he was running against more opponents.“To put simply, Trump’s party is divided, and now he’s about to face the only politician who has ever beaten him and who did so with more votes than any presidential candidate in history: President Joe Biden,” Fulks said.But reporters pressed campaign officials about Biden’s performance in polls, some of which show Trump pulling ahead in key battleground states.“We don’t govern based on polls, and polls are just a snapshot in time,” said Cedric Richmond, the Biden campaign co-chair. “If I had a dollar for every time somebody counted Joe Biden out based on polls or something else, then I’d be independently wealthy.”He added: “Do we think we’re going to win? Absolutely. Because there’s too much on the line not to for the American people.” More

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      Upbeat Haley vows to press on but prospects against Trump look bleak

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      Nikki Haley was surprisingly peppy as she took the stage in New Hampshire on Tuesday, considering she had just suffered her second bruising defeat by Donald Trump. Trump beat Haley by 11 points in New Hampshire, a victory that came on the heels of the former president’s 30-point win in the Iowa caucuses.Undaunted by the reality of her losses, the former UN ambassador pledged that she would continue on in the Republican presidential primary. Haley voiced confidence about her performance in her home state of South Carolina, which will hold its Republican primary on 24 February.“New Hampshire is first in the nation. It is not the last in the nation,” Haley told supporters in Concord. “This race is far from over. There are dozens of states left to go, and the next one is my sweet state of South Carolina.”But everyone not named Nikki Haley appears all too ready to declare the Republican primary over. With Trump winning a historic majority of votes in Iowa and New Hampshire, Haley’s path to the nomination appears increasingly difficult – if not impossible. In his victory speech on Tuesday, Trump belittled her efforts to downplay her losses and mocked her decision to stay in the race.“She had a very bad night,” Trump said. “She came in third [in Iowa], and she’s still hanging around.”In a rare moment of agreement between Trump and Joe Biden, the president made clear that he would turn his attention to the general election in November, effectively writing off any chance of a Haley comeback.“It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher,” Biden said in a statement. “I want to say to all those independents and Republicans who share our commitment to core values of our nation our Democracy, our personal freedoms, an economy that gives everyone a fair shot – to join us as Americans.”Despite Haley’s claims to the contrary, her prospects in South Carolina and beyond look bleak. According to the FiveThirtyEight polling average, Trump is running 37 points ahead of Haley in South Carolina, where he has already locked up the endorsements of the state’s governor and senators. If anything, Haley’s losing performance in New Hampshire may represent a high-water mark for her, given her strong support among independent voters who were allowed to participate in the Republican primary.There’s also the question of money. Haley has reportedly planned a major fundraising swing with big donors in the coming weeks. However, if those donors start abandoning her in large numbers, Haley may have no choice but to withdraw .Of course, Haley’s campaign insists she can be competitive in many states that will vote on Super Tuesday, which falls on 5 March. In a campaign memo circulated on Tuesday, Betsy Ankney, Haley’s campaign manager, noted that roughly two-thirds of the 874 delegates up for grabs on Super Tuesday are in states with open or semi-open primaries.“Until then, everyone should take a deep breath. The campaign has not even begun in any of these states yet,” Ankney said. “A month in politics is a lifetime. We’re watching democracy in action. We’re letting the people have a voice. That’s how this is supposed to work.”As Haley looks ahead to South Carolina, her campaign has leaned into the message that she is the most electable Republican candidate. In one of two new ads that the Haley campaign dropped in South Carolina on Wednesday, a narrator highlights Biden and Trump’s unpopularity and makes the pitch for a new era of political leadership.“Biden – too old. Trump – too much chaos,” the narrator in the ad says. “A rematch no one wants. There’s a better choice for a better America.”Some data supports Haley’s electability argument. She performed well with moderate Republican voters in New Hampshire, pointing to a potential vulnerability for Trump in November, and one Wall Street Journal poll frequently cited by Haley’s team showed her beating Biden by 17 points in a general election.The problem is, she has no viable route to that general election.Nevertheless, at the election night watch party in Concord, Haley’s supporters echoed the candidate’s resilience.“I’m not about to have a panic attack after one state,” Marie Mulroy, 76, said moments after Haley spoke. Mulroy is an independent New Hampshire voter who backed Biden in 2020 and remains hopeful she’ll have the opportunity to cast her ballot for the first female president in November.“If it’s like this after Super Tuesday, then you start thinking,” she added.Mary Ann Hanusa was so committed to electing Haley that she flew to New Hampshire to volunteer for her campaign after caucusing for Haley in Iowa, where she lives. Hanusa said she was prepared to go to South Carolina to help.“I think Americans deserve a choice,” she said. “We’ve got 48 states to go.” More

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      The Guardian view on the Tory right and Trump: a moral abyss and an electoral dead end | Editorial

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      The Tory party is carrying out a postmortem on Rishi Sunak’s leadership before it has expired. It is a gruesome spectacle. Simon Clarke, a former cabinet minister, has called on the prime minister to resign on the grounds that he is navigating the Conservatives towards electoral calamity and incapable of steering them to safety.MPs who might privately agree with Mr Clarke’s analysis have denounced the intervention as counterproductive. The majority of Conservatives recognise that defeat looms under their current leader and also that it would loom larger still if he were defenestrated. The succession would be chaotic; the government’s threadbare mandate would be void. Fourteen years in office would make any administration feel stale. The lack of tangible achievements, coupled with economic stagnation and decline in public services, gives Mr Sunak’s reign an unshakable aura of decay.But there are also ideological schisms and geographic faultlines running through the Conservative base that make recovery harder. The majority that Boris Johnson won in 2019 combined long-established Conservative supporters, concentrated in southern England, with former Labour voters in the north and the Midlands.It was a politically incoherent coalition, united only in support for Brexit (or at least impatience to end the bickering about it) and aversion to the prospect of Jeremy Corbyn in Downing Street. Labour is now under new leadership and Brexit is enacted without material benefits. What some Tory strategists identified as an epic realignment of the electorate has unravelled in the absence of either a positive prospectus for the future or charismatic leadership. Mr Johnson’s potency in that department was overrated but not inconsequential. The incineration of his popularity in the Partygate scandal also contaminated an already diminished Conservative brand.The realignment theory is not entirely without foundation. Sir Keir Starmer might be poised to reclaim many seats in Labour’s former heartlands, but that doesn’t mean that the old allegiance, rooted in working-class identity and local culture, is renewed. Brexit was the catalyst for abandonment of a loyalty that had degraded over the preceding generation. Much of the so-called red wall will remain marginal territory after the next election.That leads some Tory MPs to imagine a swift recovery under a more radical prospectus – fiercer in opposing immigration; more aggressive in “anti-woke” campaigns; and fanatical in cutting taxes.The Conservative ultras draw inspiration from Donald Trump’s seemingly unstoppable march towards nomination as the Republicans’ presidential candidate, and the plausible prospect of his return to the White House in November. The apparent lesson is that blood-curdling nationalism, culture wars on a nuclear scale, contempt for democratic norms and disregard for truth are a winning formula.As a model this is repellent on ethical grounds. On the amoral test of practicality, Trumpism has limited application in Britain. Fixating on potential gains from a more radical rightwing platform spares party ideologues the less comfortable task of accounting for lost support among moderate, liberal and former remain-voting Conservatives. They are now swinging to the Lib Democrats, Labour, or whichever of the two is better placed to oust the local Tory.The more in thrall the Conservatives become to the extreme wing of the US Republican movement, the more brutal will be the electoral punishment that is stirring them to panic – and the more deserved. More

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      Lindsey Graham ‘threw Trump under the bus’ in Georgia case, book says

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      The South Carolina senator Lindsey Graham “threw Donald Trump under the bus” in testimony to a grand jury investigating election subversion in Georgia, a new book reportedly says, revealing that the former president would have believed “martians came and stole the election” he lost to Joe Biden in 2020.“After fighting a four-month legal battle all the way to the US supreme court to block his grand jury subpoena – and losing … Graham turned on a dime ‘and threw Trump under the bus’,” Michael Isikoff and Daniel Klaidman write in Find Me the Votes: A Hard-Charging Georgia Prosecutor, a Rogue President, and the Plot to Steal an American Election, Politico reported.“According to secret grand jury testimony in Fulton county confirmed by the authors, Graham testified that if you told Trump ‘that martians came and stole the election, he’d probably believe you’. He also suggested to the grand jurors that Trump cheated at golf.”The book, which cites “a source familiar with [Graham’s] testimony”, will be published next week.Trump’s cheating at golf has been widely reported.Isikoff and Klaidman also reportedly describe a “strange encounter” between Graham and Fani Willis, the Fulton county district attorney who has pursued the election subversion case, producing 13 criminal charges against Trump and charging a host of his allies.Willis reportedly decided against charging Graham over his involvement in Trump’s attempt to overturn Biden’s win in the state.“After Graham was finished testifying,” Isikoff and Klaidman write, “he bumped into Fani Willis in a hallway and thanked her for the opportunity to tell his story.“‘That was so cathartic,’ he told Willis. ‘I feel so much better.’ Then, to the astonishment of one source who witnessed the scene, South Carolina’s senior senator hugged the Fulton county DA who was aggressively pursuing Trump.“Willis’s reaction: ‘She was like, “Whatever, dude,”’ according to one witness of the strange encounter.”Trump’s criminal charges in Georgia contribute to a total of 91, as do four federal charges concerning his attempt to overturn his 2020 defeat by Biden.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionThe former president also faces 40 charges over the retention of classified information; 34 regarding hush-money payments to an adult film actor who claimed an affair; civil lawsuits over his business affairs and a defamation claim arising from a rape allegation a judge said was “substantially true”; and attempts to remove him from the ballot, for inciting the January 6 insurrection.Nonetheless, he has dominated the Republican presidential primary, winning convincingly in Iowa and New Hampshire and now pressuring his last rival, the former South Carolina governor Nikki Haley, to drop out.Graham remains, in public, a vocal Trump supporter, oblivious to charges of hypocrisy given a famous 2016 prediction that Trump would “destroy” the Republican party, and given a claim, immediately after the attack on Congress, that he was finally “out” of Trump’s camp. More

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      Trump-Biden rematch increasingly inevitable after New Hampshire primary

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      A sweep of the first two nominating contests on the 2024 primary season left Donald Trump in a strong position to seize the Republican party nomination, and made a rematch with Joe Biden even more inevitable.Trump’s Republican rival, Nikki Haley, vowed to fight on despite her second place finish in New Hampshire, a state where she had hoped for an upset, and her third place finish in the Iowa caucuses. But she faces long odds. There is no precedent for a candidate winning the Iowa caucuses and the New Hampshire primary and losing their party’s nomination.In his victory night speech, Trump previewed the crudeness of the campaign rhetoric to come if Haley does not accede to his calls for her to drop out. In his remarks, which were more angry than celebratory, Trump suggested that Haley would find herself under investigation if she became the nominee, but then declared that she had no chance of dethroning him.“This is not your typical victory speech,” he said, surrounded by all of his vanquished Republican rivals. “But let’s not have someone take a victory when she had a very bad night.”Haley’s campaign dismissed Trump’s speech as a “furious and rambling rant” and asked: “If Trump is in such good shape, why is he so angry?”“This is why so many voters want to move on from Trump’s chaos and are rallying to Nikki Haley’s new generation of conservative leadership,” her campaign said.Haley was more gracious in her speech. She conceded to Trump and congratulated him on his victory. But she said she would not be pushed out of a contest that had just begun. “New Hampshire is first in the nation,” she told supporters in Concord, the state’s capitol. “It is not the last in the nation. This race is far from over.”Haley insisted that she could parlay her second-place showing in New Hampshire into an even stronger finish in her home state of South Carolina, where she was twice elected governor. But polls show Trump leading Haley by roughly 30 percentage points in South Carolina, which holds its Republican primary election on 24 February.Haley’s loss underscored Trump’s strength among Republican voters, who looked past his false claims of a stolen election and a web of legal troubles amounting to 91 criminal charges.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionHaley has said “chaos follows” Trump and argued Republicans would lose the presidency again if he was their nominee. “A Trump nomination is a Biden win and a Kamala Harris presidency,” she said, suggesting that the 81-year-old president would not be able to complete his term.Biden was not on Tuesday’s primary ballot in New Hampshire, but won the contest thanks to a homegrown write-in campaign.“It is now clear that Donald Trump will be the Republican nominee. And my message to the country is the stakes could not be higher,” Biden said in a statement on Tuesday. “Our Democracy. Our personal freedoms – from the right to choose to the right to vote. Our economy – which has seen the strongest recovery in the world since COVID. All are at stake.” More