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      Elections in Ecuador and Guatemala: Four Takeaways

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      Outsiders overperformed, underscoring the volatility of Latin American politics. Candidates calling to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on crime did not do well.Ecuador and Guatemala held elections on Sunday that shed light on crucial trends throughout Latin America, including anticorruption drives, the growing importance of young voters and calls to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on crime.In Ecuador, where the assassination this month of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio cast a pall over campaigning, an establishment leftist, Luisa González, will head into a runoff against Daniel Noboa, the scion of a well-heeled family known for its banana empire.And in Guatemala, the progressive anti-graft crusader Bernardo Arévalo won in a landslide over a former first lady, Sandra Torres, dealing a blow to the country’s conservative political establishment.As concerns simmer over the erosion of the rule of law and the expanding sway of drug gangs in different parts of Latin America, the voting was watched closely for signs of what the outcomes could mean.Here are key takeaways.President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has cracked down on gang violence, using mass arrests that swept up thousands of innocent people. Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesCrime wasn’t the only issue on voters’ minds.Ecuador and Guatemala each face an array of different challenges, and while it is hard to overstate the difficulty of governing effectively in both countries, new leaders will grapple with getting organized crime under control and creating economic opportunities to keep their citizens at home instead of emigrating.The star of the moment in Latin America’s political scene is El Salvador’s conservative populist president, Nayib Bukele, for his success in using hard-line tactics to quell gang violence, including mass arrests that swept up thousands of innocent people and the erosion of civil liberties. But expectations that enthusiasts for the Bukele gospel on crime would sail to victory fizzled in Ecuador and Guatemala.“It is notable that in neither case did unabashed admirers of Nayib Bukele’s hard-line policies against criminal gangs in El Salvador fare well,” said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based research organization.Despite the shock over the assassination of Mr. Villavicencio, explicitly anti-crime candidates in Ecuador split their share of the votes. Jan Topic, who aligned himself closely with Mr. Bukele, fared poorly despite climbing in the polls after the assassination.“He did run a single-issue campaign that was very much focused around security,” Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, said of Mr. Topic. “But voters have other concerns, including on the economy.”Similarly, in Guatemala — where fears were growing of a slide toward authoritarian rule — Ms. Torres’s pledge to put in place Bukele-style policies failed to gain much traction. Instead, the former first lady was put on the defensive by her rival because she had spent time under house arrest in connection to charges of illicit campaign financing.Also influencing the outcome: moves by Guatemala’s electoral authority to simply disqualify candidates who were viewed as threatening the established order.One of the candidates pushed out of the race ahead of the first round in June was Carlos Pineda, an outsider seeking to replicate Mr. Bukele’s crackdown on crime. When Mr. Pineda and others were disqualified, that provided an opening for Mr. Arévalo, another outsider, even though his proposals to fight crime are more nuanced.Guatemalan candidates tried to capitalize on the support of young people.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesYoung voters shape elections.To a notable degree, the electoral outcomes in Ecuador and Guatemala hinged on the choices of young voters. In Ecuador, Mr. Noboa, 35, a businessman and newcomer to politics, was polling in the doldrums just a few weeks ago.But seizing on youth support while casting himself as an outsider, Mr. Noboa unexpectedly surged into the runoff with about 24 percent of the vote. (Name recognition may also have helped; his father, Álvaro Noboa, one of Ecuador’s richest men, ran unsuccessfully for president five times.)In Guatemala, Central America’s most populous country, Mr. Arévalo, 64, also capitalized on the support of young people, especially in cities, who were drawn to his calls to end the political persecution of human rights activists, environmentalists, journalists, prosecutors and judges.Mr. Arévalo also offered a more moderate stance on social issues. While saying he would not seek to legalize abortion or gay marriage, he made it clear that his government would not permit discrimination against people because of their sexual orientation.That position, which is somewhat novel in Guatemala, stood in sharp contrast to that of Ms. Torres, who drafted an evangelical pastor as her running mate and used an anti-gay slur on the campaign trail to refer to Mr. Arévalo’s supporters.Luisa González will head into a runoff against Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesThe left is going in different directions.Guatemala and Ecuador offered sharply contrasting visions for the left in Latin America.Indeed, within Guatemala’s traditionally conservative political landscape, Mr. Arévalo, who criticizes leftist governments like Nicaragua’s, is often described as a progressive. In that sense, he is more like Gabriel Boric, Chile’s moderate young president, than firebrands elsewhere in the region.Mr. Arévalo’s party, Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement), which coalesced after anticorruption protests in 2015, is also unlike any other party in Guatemala in recent decades. Semilla gained attention for running a principled and austere campaign, making its funding sources clear, in contrast to the opaque financing prevailing in other parties. Another source of inspiration for Semilla is Uruguay’s Frente Amplio (Broad Front), a moderate, democratic left-of-center party.“Arévalo is a democrat through and through,” said Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.Ms. González, by contrast, hails from a different part of the Latin American left, characterized in Ecuador’s case by testing democratic checks and balances, Mr. Freeman said. She is a supporter of Rafael Correa, a former Ecuadorean president who remains a dominant force in the country’s politics despite being out of power for six years.Mr. Correa, who lives in Belgium after fleeing an eight-year prison sentence for campaign-finance violations, retains a strong base that oscillates between 20 percent and 30 percent of the electorate.That support is largely a result of the “nostalgia for that moment of well-being that existed during the Correa era,” said Caroline Ávila, a political analyst in Ecuador.Mr. Arévalo got more votes than any other candidate in Guatemala since democracy was restored in the country in 1985.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesUnpredictability underlined the races.The races in both Ecuador and Guatemala highlighted a wider regional trend: the uncertainty and volatility of Latin America’s politics.Polls in both countries failed to capture crucial developments. In Ecuador, where Mr. Topic was seen capitalizing on the aftermath of the Villavicencio assassination, Mr. Noboa swooped in to make it to the runoff.And in Guatemala, Mr. Arévalo, a professorial candidate who sometimes reads his speeches and lacks the oratory skills of his rivals, was viewed as nonthreatening by the establishment — until he squeaked into the runoff.Now, with his landslide win, Mr. Arévalo got more votes than any other candidate since democracy was restored in Guatemala in 1985.That’s a scenario that even many within Mr. Arévalo’s own party did not see coming.Simon Romero More

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      Ecuador’s Crime Surge Is Devastating, but There Is a Way Forward

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      On Aug. 14, Pedro Briones, a congressional candidate and local political leader in Ecuador, was shot down. The assassination came less than a week after Fernando Villavicencio, a presidential candidate and vocal critic of corruption, was shot dead as he left a campaign rally in the country’s capital, Quito. The killings so close to Ecuador’s general election, scheduled for Sunday, have shocked Ecuadoreans and drawn global condemnation. The slayings show that no one — not even a presidential candidate — is safe in Ecuador.Christian Zurita, an investigative journalist and a former colleague and close friend of Mr. Villavicencio, was chosen by their political party to run in his place.What will happen next is uncertain, but it is clear that the nation’s intense political polarization will not help solve its crisis of violence.The shooting of Mr. Briones is under investigation, and six Colombian nationals are being held in connection with Mr. Villavicencio’s killing. How the country’s criminal justice system handles the ongoing inquiries will be a litmus test for the nation. Ecuadorean politicians and their international partners will need to summon the political will and resources to complete an independent and thorough investigation into the killings. If the authorities prosecute just a few hit men and leave it at that, criminal groups will only grow more brazen. But if they take the longer, tougher road — rooting out and bringing to justice the masterminds behind the killings and exposing organized crime’s ties to parts of the state — the country may have a path back from the brink.As a political scientist focused on Latin America, I have lived and worked in countries like Colombia and Guatemala, where decades ago gangs and organized criminal groups began sowing chaos as they grew more powerful. Although Ecuador historically dodged the narco-trafficking-fueled violence and internal armed conflicts that bedeviled its South American neighbors during the latter half of the 20th century, it has all the trappings of a drug traffickers’ paradise. It is sandwiched between Peru and Colombia, the world’s two largest producers of coca. And Ecuador’s economy has used dollars as the legal tender since 2000, making it attractive for money launderers.The demobilization in 2017 of Colombia’s Revolutionary Armed Forces, which had long controlled Ecuadorean trafficking routes, created a vacuum that new cartels and gangs are now battling to fill. Earlier this year, I witnessed how the violence is rewriting the rules of daily life. Ecuador’s homicide rate is now the fourth highest in Latin America and extortion has risen to a startling rate. As a result, once-lively streets are now eerily empty and businesses have begun to close at nightfall. One day, I watched as a storekeeper and his patrons crowded around a smartphone to view — and applaud — clips of vigilante justice against suspected gang members. Many people I spoke to told me they planned to migrate. Since October, more than 77,000 have reached the U.S.-Mexico border: a nearly eightfold increase from 2020.Policy blunders have left Ecuador ill-equipped to face the spiral of violence. Rafael Correa, a populist who served as the country’s president from 2007 to 2017, made the first serious missteps. It’s true that some measures put in place by his administration helped cut homicides to new lows. But Mr. Correa also eliminated the police unit for special investigations, closed a U.S. military base that supplied equipment to monitor its airspace and vast territorial waters and doubled the prison population, creating a breeding ground for gangs. His successors also made blunders.President Lenín Moreno purged many of Mr. Correa’s appointees to the executive and judiciary, and won a referendum that reinstated presidential term limits scrapped by his predecessor. The judiciary opened investigations into corruption during the Correa years. Polarization flared between Mr. Correa’s supporters, who claimed they were victims of politicized justice, while critics like Mr. Moreno argued that they were rebuilding democratic checks and balances eroded under Mr. Correa. As that political melee played out, gangs turned Ecuador’s crowded prisons into their own command centers and began to infiltrate government institutions and armed forces.Guillermo Lasso, Ecuador’s current president, has been locked in battle with Mr. Correa’s followers in the National Assembly, which Mr. Lasso dissolved by decree in May. Mr. Lasso has rolled out state emergencies and even put troops on the streets to fight the gangs and cartels. But criminal groups’ hold over the country has only grown. Alarmingly, Mr. Lasso’s brother-in-law — formerly one of his closest advisers — is under investigation for alleged ties to the Albanian mafia. In March, a businessman implicated in the case was found dead.A supporter showing a flyer of Mr. Villavicencio during a protest a day after the candidate was assassinated.Carlos Noriega/Associated PressEcuador’s crime surge is transnational, with Mexican cartels, Colombian and Venezuelan groups and the Albanian mafia all vying to control the nation’s drug trade and weaken the state. While charting a path forward may seem daunting, it’s not impossible. To curb the power of organized crime and violence, the authorities need to root out corruption, investigate ties to local and national politicians and pursue their money launderers and contacts in the state.This is a tall order for a country whose institutions are increasingly co-opted by crime. It will require ongoing cooperation and courage on the part of the country’s police, prosecutors, judges and politicians. But it has been done before. Colombia could be a model. Beginning in 2006, that nation’s government began taking steps to investigate, prosecute and sentence over 60 members of Congress who aided and abetted drug-trafficking paramilitaries.President Lasso has invited the United States Federal Bureau of Investigation and the Colombian police to assist in the investigation of Mr. Villavicencio’s killing. But for the effort to be truly effective, the cooperation on this case and others must continue into the next administration and beyond, regardless of who wins this Sunday.Ecuador’s leaders must resist the temptation to delegate the anti-crime fight entirely to the military, or to use firepower alone to beat back the cartels and gangs. That approach has proved ineffective in countries like Mexico, and has often made the violence worse. Instead, Ecuador’s leaders must support independent prosecutors, judges and the police.Ecuador’s armed forces, one of the nation’s most trusted institutions, is not designed to lead criminal investigations, track down money launderers or expose corrupt public servants. Those are jobs for civil institutions, like the police and judiciary. While these institutions are not immune to corruption and politicization among its ranks, they are not beyond saving.Polarization has carved deep rifts between Mr. Correa’s supporters and his opponents, including Mr. Villavicencio. In the last week, politicians on both sides have resorted to blaming one another for the deteriorating security situation. To move forward, they must unite behind a shared purpose — to investigate criminal groups’ ties to public officeholders without seeking to shield members of their own camp. Whoever wins the upcoming presidential election must look beyond political divisions and put country over party.Mr. Villavicencio’s killing marks an inflection point. But there is still time to act before the country progresses farther down the path Colombia and Mexico have traveled. It is what Mr. Villavicencio would have wanted.Will Freeman is a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations. He focuses on understanding why developing democracies succeed or fail to end impunity for grand corruption.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Ecuador conmocionado por el asesinato de Fernando Villavicencio

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      Los 12 disparos efectuados el miércoles por la tarde, que acabaron con la vida de un candidato presidencial ecuatoriano cuando salía de un acto de campaña, han marcado un punto de inflexión dramático para una nación que hasta hace apenas unos años parecía una isla de seguridad en una región violenta.Un video del instante previo al asesinato del candidato, Fernando Villavicencio, comenzó a circular en línea incluso antes de que se confirmara su muerte. Para muchos ecuatorianos, esos disparos resonaron con un mensaje sombrío: su país había cambiado para siempre.“Siento que representa una pérdida total de control para el gobierno”, dijo Ingrid Ríos, politóloga de la ciudad de Guayaquil, “y para los ciudadanos también”.Ecuador, un país con 18 millones de habitantes en la costa occidental de Sudamérica, ha sobrevivido a gobiernos autoritarios, crisis financieras, protestas masivas y al menos un secuestro presidencial. Sin embargo, nunca había sido sacudido por el tipo de conflicto relacionado con las drogas que ha plagado a la vecina Colombia, el cual ha desatado una violencia que ha matado a miles, erosionando la democracia y enfrentando a los ciudadanos entre sí.Hasta ahora.La sede del partido político de Villavicencio. El candidato fue asesinado frente a una escuela donde estaba realizando un evento de campaña.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesHoras después del asesinato del candidato, el presidente Guillermo Lasso declaró el estado de emergencia y suspendió algunas libertades civiles para ayudarlo a lidiar con la creciente delincuencia, según dijo.El jueves por la tarde, el ministro del Interior de Ecuador, Juan Zapata, afirmó que los seis sospechosos detenidos en relación con el asesinato de Villavicencio eran de nacionalidad colombiana, lo que le añade una nueva dimensión a una historia que ya parecía haber sido importada de otro lugar.En los últimos cinco años, el narcotráfico ha ganado un poder extraordinario en Ecuador, a medida que las mafias extranjeras de la droga se han aliado con las pandillas locales de las calles y las prisiones. En solo unos años han transformado regiones enteras del país, extorsionando negocios, reclutando jóvenes, infiltrándose en el gobierno y matando a quienes los investigan.Las similitudes con los problemas que afectaron a Colombia en las décadas de 1980 y 1990, cuando los grupos narcotraficantes asumieron el control de grandes zonas del país y se infiltraron en el gobierno, se han vuelto casi imposibles de ignorar para los ecuatorianos.El jueves, algunos comenzaron a comparar el asesinato de Villavicencio con el de Luis Carlos Galán, un candidato presidencial colombiano que fue asesinado a tiros durante la campaña en 1989. Al igual que Villavicencio, Galán fue un duro crítico de la actividad ilegal de las drogas.La muerte de Galán aún resuena en Colombia como símbolo de los peligros de denunciar al poder criminal y de la incapacidad del Estado para proteger a sus ciudadanos.En términos más generales, Colombia sigue lidiando con los efectos del narcotráfico, que sigue influyendo en los procesos electorales y es responsable de la muerte y el desplazamiento de miles de personas cada año.El jueves, un grupo de personas se reunió frente a una morgue en la capital ecuatoriana, Quito, donde se encontraba el cuerpo de Villavicencio. El aire se llenó de llantos desesperados. Irina Tejada, una maestra de 48 años, habló entre lágrimas.“Nos arrebataron a nuestro héroe”, dijo. Luego, refiriéndose a los políticos corruptos, afirmó: “¿Por qué no se ponen de parte de nuestro pueblo, no de esos narcos criminales? ¡Qué dolor, indignación!”.Irina Tejada, maestra, de luto frente a la morgue donde se encontraba el cuerpo de Villavicencio.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesPoco después, el coche fúnebre plateado que transportaba el cuerpo de Villavicencio salió de la morgue y la multitud comenzó a aplaudir, primero con tristeza y luego con rabia frenética.La gente le gritó a la escolta policial que rodeaba el cuerpo.“¡Ahora lo protegen! ¡Cuando ya es demasiado tarde!”, gritó una mujer.Villavicencio, quien había trabajado como periodista, activista y asambleísta, figuraba en las encuestas en una posición intermedia en el grupo de ocho candidatos para las elecciones presidenciales que se celebrarán el 20 de agosto. Fue uno de los que más denunció abiertamente el vínculo entre el crimen organizado y los funcionarios gubernamentales.El miércoles por la tarde, Villavicencio llegó a una escuela en Quito, la capital, donde estuvo en un escenario frente a una multitud y se pronunció “en contra de las mafias que han sometido a esta patria”. Luego, cuando salía de la escuela bajo una enorme pancarta que mostraba su rostro junto a la palabra “presidente”, se realizaron los disparos.El presidente Lasso inmediatamente culpó de la muerte al “crimen organizado”. La Fiscalía General del Estado rápidamente dijo que un sospechoso había muerto y otros seis habían sido arrestados.Al día siguiente, Lasso informó que había solicitado la ayuda del FBI, órgano que accedió a ayudar en la investigación del caso.Con un chaleco antibalas, Andrea González, compañera de fórmula de Villavicencio, ofreció una conferencia de prensa el jueves.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesJusto después de la muerte de Villavicencio, Carlos Figueroa, un miembro de su campaña que presenció el tiroteo, habló con el Times, con voz temblorosa.“Las mafias son demasiado poderosas”, afirmó. “Se han tomado nuestro país, se han tomado el sistema económico, la policía, el sistema judicial”.“Estamos desesperados”, continuó. “No sabemos el futuro de nuestro país. En manos de quién, por quién va a ser asumido”.Villavicencio, de 59 años, ganó prominencia como opositor del correísmo, el movimiento de izquierda del expresidente Rafael Correa, quien gobernó desde 2007 hasta 2017 y aún tiene poder político en Ecuador.En los días previos al asesinato, Villavicencio había aparecido en televisión afirmando que había recibido tres amenazas específicas de miembros de un grupo criminal llamado Los Choneros.En una primera amenaza, dijo, representantes de un líder de Los Choneros llamado Fito visitaron a un miembro del equipo de Villavicencio “para decirle que si yo sigo mencionando el nombre de Fito, mencionando los Choneros, me van a quebrar. Efectivamente, eso fue. Y mi decisión fue continuar con la campaña”.Oficiales de policía custodiando la caravana que transportaba el cuerpo de Villavicencio, el jueves.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesEl asesinato de Villavicencio afecta una elección presidencial ya de por sí polémica, y que continuará según lo planeado. La candidata que cuenta con el respaldo de Correa, Luisa González, lidera las encuestas.Sin embargo, como Villavicencio fue un crítico tan duro de Correa, algunos ecuatorianos han comenzado a culpar a los candidatos correístas por la muerte de Villavicencio. No hay evidencia de su participación.“Ni un solo voto para el correísmo”, coreó una mujer afuera de la morgue.Otros votantes dijeron que iban a comenzar a apoyar a Jan Topic, un candidato y exsoldado de la Legión Extranjera Francesa cuyo enfoque ha sido adoptar una línea dura en materia de seguridad y quien se ha hecho eco de las promesas del presidente de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele. La línea dura de Bukele contra las pandillas, incluidos los encarcelamientos masivos, ha ayudado a reducir la violencia, pero también ha generado que lo acusen de violar las libertades civiles.Germán Martínez, un médico forense que estaba en la morgue donde estuvo el cuerpo de Villavicencio el jueves, dijo que después del asesinato había decidido cambiar su voto a Topic.“¿Dónde estamos como ecuatorianos?”, preguntó. “Ya tenemos que dejar de andar con la frente al sueño. Tenemos que enfrentar a los criminales. Necesitamos una mano firme”.Genevieve Glatsky More

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      Ecuador Reels From Assassination of Fernando Villavicencio

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      The 12 shots fired on Wednesday evening, killing an Ecuadorean presidential candidate as he exited a campaign event, marked a dramatic turning point for a nation that a few years ago seemed an island of security in a violent region.A video of the moments just before the killing of the candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, began circulating online even before his death had been confirmed. And for many Ecuadoreans, those shots echoed with a bleak message: Their nation was forever changed.“I feel that it represents a total loss of control for the government,” said Ingrid Ríos, a political scientist in the city of Guayaquil, “and for the citizens, as well.”Ecuador, a country of 18 million on South America’s western coast, has survived authoritarian governments, financial crises, mass protests and at least one presidential kidnapping. It has never, however, been shaken by the kind of drug-related warfare that has plagued neighboring Colombia, unleashing violence that has killed thousands, corroded democracy and turned citizens against one another.Until now.The headquarters of Mr. Villavicencio’s political party. He was assassinated outside a school where he was holding a campaign event.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesHours after the candidate’s killing, President Guillermo Lasso declared a state of emergency, suspending some civil liberties, he said, to help him deal with growing crime.And on Thursday afternoon, Ecuador’s interior minister, Juan Zapata, said that six suspects arrested in connection with Mr. Villavicencio’s killing were all Colombian, adding a new dimension to a story line that already seemed to be imported from another place.In the past five years, the narco-trafficking industry has gained extraordinary power in Ecuador, as foreign drug mafias have joined forces with local prison and street gangs. In just a few years, they have transformed entire swaths of the country, extorting businesses, recruiting young people, infiltrating the government and killing those who investigate them.The similarities to the problems that plagued Colombia in the 1980s and ’90s, as narco-trafficking groups assumed control of broad parts of the country and infiltrated the government, have become almost impossible for Ecuadoreans to ignore.On Thursday, some began to compare Mr. Villavicencio’s killing to that of Luis Carlos Galán, a Colombian presidential candidate gunned down on the campaign trail in 1989. Like Mr. Villavicencio, Mr. Galán was a harsh critic of the illegal drug industry.Mr. Galán’s death still reverberates in Colombia as a symbol of the dangers of speaking out against criminal power and of the inability of the state to protect its citizens.More broadly, Colombia is still grappling with the effects of the drug-trafficking industry, which continues to hold sway over the electoral process and is responsible for the deaths and displacement of thousands of people each year.On Thursday, mourners gathered outside a morgue in the Ecuadorean capital, Quito, where Mr. Villavicencio’s body was being held. The air filled with desperate cries. Irina Tejada, 48, a teacher, wept as she spoke.“They’ve stolen our hero,” she said. Then, addressing corrupt politicians, she went on: “Why don’t they side with our people, not with those criminal narcos? The pain and outrage!”Irina Tejada, a teacher, mourning outside the morgue where Mr. Villavicencio’s body was being held.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesSoon, the silver hearse carrying Mr. Villavicencio’s body left the morgue, and the crowd began to clap, at first mournfully, then with a rapid anger.People screamed at the police escort surrounding the body.“Now you protect him, when it is too late!” a woman shouted.Mr. Villavicencio, who had worked as a journalist, activist and legislator, was polling near the middle of a group of eight candidates in a presidential election set for Aug. 20. He was among the most outspoken about the link between organized crime and government officials.On Wednesday evening, he arrived at a school in Quito, the capital, where he stood on a stage in front of a packed crowd and spoke out “against the mafias that have subjugated this homeland.” Then, as he exited the school under an enormous banner that bore his face and the words “presidente,” the shots were fired.Mr. Lasso, the president, immediately blamed the death on “organized crime.” The national prosecutor’s office quickly said that one suspect had been killed and six others arrested.The following day, Mr. Lasso said he had requested the help of the F.B.I., which agreed to assist in investigating the case.Wearing a bulletproof vest, Andrea González, Mr. Villavicencio’s running mate, held a news conference on Thursday.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesJust after Mr. Villavicencio’s death, Carlos Figueroa, a member of his campaign who had witnessed the shooting, spoke to The Times, his voice wobbly.“The mafias are too powerful,” he said. “They have taken over our country; they have taken over the economic system, the police, the judicial system.”“We are desperate,” he continued. “We don’t know our country’s future, in which hands, or by whom, it will be taken over.”Mr. Villavicencio, 59, gained prominence as an opponent of correísmo, the leftist movement of former President Rafael Correa, who served from 2007 to 2017 and still holds political power in Ecuador.In the days before the assassination, Mr. Villavicencio had appeared on television, saying that he had received three specific threats from members of a criminal group called Los Choneros.In an initial threat, he said, representatives of a Choneros leader named Fito visited a member of Mr. Villavicencio’s team “to tell them that if I keep mentioning Fito’s name, mentioning the Choneros, they’re going to break me. That’s how it was. And my decision was to continue with the electoral campaign.”Police officers guarding the motorcade carrying Mr. Villavicencio’s body on Thursday.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Villavicencio’s killing casts a pall on an already-contentious presidential election, which will go on as planned. A candidate who has Mr. Correa’s backing, Luisa González, is leading in the polls.Yet, because Mr. Villavicencio was such a harsh critic of Mr. Correa, some Ecuadoreans have begun to blame correísta candidates for Mr. Villavicencio’s death. There is no evidence of their involvement.“Not a single vote for correísmo,” one woman chanted outside the morgue.Other voters said they were turning toward Jan Topic, a candidate and former soldier in the French Foreign Legion whose focus has been taking a hard line on security, and who has been mirroring the promises of El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele. Mr. Bukele’s hard line on gangs, including mass imprisonments, has helped drive down violence, but he has also been accused of violating civil liberties.Germán Martínez, a coroner who happened to be at the morgue where Mr. Villavicencio’s body lay on Thursday, said that after the killing, he had decided to switch his vote to Mr. Topic.“Where are we, as Ecuadoreans?” he asked. “We can’t remain with our heads low. We need to fight criminals. We need a strong hand.”Genevieve Glatsky More

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      Hunter Biden’s Daughter and a Tale of Two Families

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      The story surrounding the president’s grandchild in Arkansas, who has not yet met her father or her grandfather, is about money, corrosive politics and what it means to have the Biden birthright.There is a 4-year-old girl in rural Arkansas who is learning to ride a camouflage-patterned four-wheeler alongside her cousins. Some days, she wears a bow in her hair, and on other days, she threads her long blond ponytail through the back of a baseball cap. When she is old enough, she will learn to hunt, just like her mother did when she was young.The girl is aware that her father is Hunter Biden and that her paternal grandfather is the president of the United States. She speaks about both of them often, but she has not met them. Her maternal grandfather, Rob Roberts, described her as whip-smart and funny.“I may not be the POTUS,” Mr. Roberts said in a text message, using an acronym for the president, but he said he would do anything for his granddaughter. He said she “needs for nothing and never will.”The story surrounding the president’s grandchild in Arkansas, who is not named in court papers, is a tale of two families, one of them powerful, one of them not. But at its core, the story is about money, corrosive politics and what it means to have the Biden birthright.Her parents ended a yearslong court battle over child support on Thursday, agreeing that Mr. Biden, who has embarked on a second career as a painter whose pieces have been offered for as much as $500,000 each, would turn over a number of his paintings to his daughter in addition to providing a monthly support payment. The little girl will select the paintings from Mr. Biden, according to court documents.“We worked it out amongst ourselves,” Lunden Roberts, the girl’s mother, said in an interview with The New York Times. “It was settled” in a discussion with Mr. Biden, she said.Hunter Biden did not respond to a request for comment for this article.Hunter Biden remains close to his father and often appears at White House events.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesMs. Roberts said she dropped a request to have the girl’s last name changed from Roberts to Biden. (Mr. Biden had fought against giving their daughter the Biden surname.) Ms. Roberts would only say that the decision to drop the request was mutual. “We both want what is best for our daughter, and that is our only focus,” she said.Though a trial planned for mid-July has been averted, people on both sides fear that the political toxicity surrounding the case will remain. Already, it has been extensively covered in conservative media, from Breitbart to Fox News, and conservative commentators assailed the Biden family after news of the settlement.Both Hunter Biden, the privileged and troubled son of a president, and Ms. Roberts, the daughter of a rural gun maker, have allies whose actions have made the situation more politicized. There is no evidence the White House is involved in those actions.Clint Lancaster, Ms. Roberts’s attorney, has represented the Trump campaign. He also called Garrett Ziegler, an activist and former Trump White House aide who has cataloged and published messages from a cache of Hunter Biden’s files that appear to have come from a laptop he left at a repair shop, to serve as an expert witness in the child support case. In the other corner, allies of Democratic groups dedicated to helping the Biden family have disseminated information about Mr. Ziegler and the Roberts family, seeking to highlight their Trump ties.And then there is President Biden.His public image is centered around his devotion to his family — including to Hunter, his only surviving son. In strategy meetings in recent years, aides have been told that the Bidens have six, not seven, grandchildren, according to two people familiar with the discussions.The White House did not respond to questions about the case, in keeping with how officials have answered questions about the Biden family before.Several of the president’s allies fear that the case could damage his re-election prospects by bringing more attention to a son whom some Democrats see as a liability. Others say the far right has focused on Hunter Biden, a private citizen, but ignored any moral and ethical failings of the former president, Donald J. Trump.“He’s under more indictments than two Super Bowl teams’ worth of players,” the author and political strategist Stuart Stevens, who left the Republican Party in 2016, said of Mr. Trump. “But that doesn’t matter: You have Hunter Biden. It’s just anger in search of an argument.”‘People Have an Image of Me’Lunden Roberts, 32, comes from a clan as tight-knit as the Bidens. Her father is a red-state gun manufacturer whose hunting buddies have included Donald Trump Jr., and who taught her at a young age how to hunt turkeys and alligators. She works for the family business, which sits on a winding country road dotted with pastures on the outskirts of Batesville.The pride of her family, the 5-foot-8 Ms. Roberts graduated with honors from Southside High School in Batesville and played basketball for Arkansas State University, where a team biography said she enjoyed hunting and skeet shooting. After graduating, she moved to Washington to study forensic investigation at George Washington University. She never completed the program. Photos from that time show her attending baseball games at Nationals Park and attending Drake and Kanye West concerts.Lunden Roberts arriving for a hearing in the paternity case in Batesville, Ark., in May. Ms. Roberts and Mr. Biden settled the case on Thursday.Karen Pulfer Focht/ReutersAlong the way, she met the son of a future president who was sliding into addiction and visiting Washington strip clubs.In mid-2018, Ms. Roberts was working as a personal assistant to Mr. Biden, according to a person close to her and messages from a cache of Mr. Biden’s files. Their daughter was born later that year, but by then, Mr. Biden had stopped responding to Ms. Roberts’s messages, including one informing him of the child’s birth date. Shortly after their daughter was born in November 2018, he removed Ms. Roberts and the child from his health insurance, which led Ms. Roberts to contact Mr. Lancaster.She filed a lawsuit in May 2019, and DNA testing that year established that Mr. Biden was the father of the child. In a motion for custody filing in December 2019, Ms. Roberts said that he had never met their child and “could not identify the child out of a photo lineup.”Ms. Roberts said in an interview that she had grown used to the onslaught of scrutiny around the case: “I read things about myself that I have no clue about,” she said. But one thing she said she can’t stand is being called a bad mother. “People can call me whatever they want, but they can’t call me that,” she said.Her public Instagram account tells its own story: “I hope one day when you look back you find yourself proud of who you are, where you come from, and most importantly, who raised you,” she captioned a photo of the two of them at the beach earlier this year. In another photo, shared to her account in April 2022, her daughter wore an Air Force One baseball cap and stood in front of the Jefferson Memorial.“People have an image of me, but few get the picture,” Ms. Roberts wrote on another photo in July 2022.Ms. Roberts posted a photo of herself and her daughter in Washington last year. Seen through one prism, the photos are a powerful public testament of love from a mother to her daughter. Seen through another, they are exploitative, certainly from the perspective of Biden allies, who fear the images — and the child — are being weaponized against the Biden family.For her part, Ms. Roberts said she did not bring her daughter to Washington to punish the Bidens. She said she brought her to Washington because not many little girls get to say that their grandfather is the president.“She’s very proud of who her grandfather is and who her dad is,” Ms. Roberts said. “That is something that I would never allow her to think otherwise.”A Troubled SonHunter Biden, 53, is recovering from crack cocaine addiction and is the last surviving son of the president, who lost his eldest, Beau, to brain cancer in 2015. The younger Mr. Biden has five children, and has said that he fathered his fourth at a low point in his life.“I had no recollection of our encounter,” Mr. Biden wrote in his 2021 memoir. “That’s how little connection I had with anyone. I was a mess, but a mess I’ve taken responsibility for.”Before Thursday’s settlement, Mr. Biden had paid Ms. Roberts upward of $750,000, according to his attorneys, and had sought to reduce his $20,000-a-month child support payment on the grounds that he did not have the money. The new amount is lower than what had been originally ordered by the court, according to a person familiar with the case.“I’m very proud of my son,” President Biden told reporters recently.Al Drago for The New York TimesTrial or no trial, Mr. Biden will remain one of his father’s political vulnerabilities. Since his addiction spiraled out of control and his dealings with foreign governments caught the attention of conservatives, the younger Mr. Biden’s choices have become grist for memes, conservative cable news panels and Republican fund-raising. The most recent round kicked off after he struck a deal with the Justice Department to plead guilty to two misdemeanor tax charges and accept terms that would allow him to avoid prosecution on a separate gun charge.On top of that, Mr. Biden has been the subject of multiple congressional investigations, and the contents of the laptop he left at a repair shop have been pored over and disseminated by activists, who say his private communications show criminal wrongdoing.In the White House, matters involving Hunter are so sensitive that only the president’s most senior advisers talk to him about his son, according to people familiar with the arrangement.Through it all, the president has been staunchly supportive. Rather than distance himself, Mr. Biden has included Hunter on official trips, traveled with him aboard Marine One, and ensured that he is on the guest list at state dinners.“I’m very proud of my son,” the president told reporters recently.‘Life’s Greatest Blessing’President Biden has worked over the past half-century to make his last name synonymous with family values and loyalty. The strength of his political persona, which emphasizes decency, family and duty, was enough to defeat Mr. Trump the first time around, and he would need to keep it intact if Mr. Trump is the Republican nominee in 2024.On a proclamation issued on Father’s Day, Mr. Biden said that his father had “taught me that, above all, family is the beginning, middle and end — a lesson I have passed down to my children and grandchildren.” He added that “family is life’s greatest blessing and responsibility.”President Biden; Jill Biden, the first lady; and their children and grandchildren watching fireworks from the White House after Mr. Biden’s inauguration in 2021.Doug Mills/The New York TimesSince they entered the White House, President Biden and Jill Biden, the first lady, have centered their family lives around their grandchildren, and have given them the benefits that come with living in close contact with the White House.Naomi Biden, 29, is Hunter’s eldest child, from his first marriage, to Kathleen Buhle, which ended in 2017. Ms. Biden was married on the South Lawn of the White House last year in a Ralph Lauren dress that she called the product of her “American(a) dreams.” She and her sisters have taken trips around the world with the president and first lady. Hunter married Melissa Cohen in 2019. His youngest child, who is named for Beau and was born in 2020, is photographed frequently with his grandparents.In April, President Biden told a group of children that he had “six grandchildren. And I’m crazy about them. And I speak to them every single day. Not a joke.”Hunter Biden’s youngest son, Beau, is frequently seen traveling and attending events with his grandparents.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesBut the president has not yet met or publicly mentioned his other grandchild. His White House has not answered questions about whether he will publicly acknowledge her now that the child support case is settled.Still, Mr. Stevens, the political strategist, said that Mr. Biden’s support of his son, even against an onslaught of Republican criticism and ugly scandals, has only emphasized his unconditional love for his family.“The net positive of this has gone to Biden, by the way,” Mr. Stevens said of the president. “He stuck by him.”Political ConcernsFew involved think the particulars of this case, even though it has been settled, will stay at a simmer, especially given its ubiquity in right-wing media.“In yet another sweetheart deal, Hunter Biden got off easy in his child support case,” wrote the editorial board of The New York Post, which has followed the proceedings closely.Aside from the news coverage and commentary, allies of the Biden family are privately worried that the involvement of right-wing operatives in the matter has made any engagement harder for the family.Mr. Ziegler, who was named as an expert witness in the case, had a footnote role in Mr. Trump’s efforts to challenge the 2020 election results: In December 2020, Mr. Ziegler escorted Mr. Trump’s former national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn, and the attorney Sidney Powell into the Oval Office, where a group discussed with Mr. Trump a plan to seize control of voting machines in key states. Mr. Ziegler’s White House guest privileges were later revoked.Mr. Ziegler declined to confirm his involvement in the child support case.Ms. Roberts’s attorney, Mr. Lancaster, also has a background in conservative activism. He is vocal on social media about his support for Mr. Trump, often retweeting criticism from conservative outlets and Elon Musk, the owner of Twitter. He also worked as an attorney for the Trump campaign during an electoral vote recount in Wisconsin after the 2020 election.Supporters of former President Donald J. Trump at a rally in 2020. Allies of the Biden family are concerned that the paternity case will be used against President Biden in the 2024 campaign.Al Drago for The New York TimesOn the other side, people affiliated with left-leaning organizations, including Facts First USA, an advocacy group run by David Brock, are wary of what the team surrounding Ms. Roberts may do as the 2024 campaign gets underway.Members of the group, which operates independently of the White House and has taken a more adversarial approach to critics than the Biden administration does, have circulated a photo of Ms. Roberts’s father posing with Donald Trump Jr. Mr. Roberts said in a text message that he has gone hunting with Mr. Trump but that he did not recall when they had first met.The Republican pollster Frank Luntz said it was “a waste of time” for activists to focus on attacking the president’s family because voters do not care about Hunter Biden as much as they care about other issues, including Ukraine and inflation.“You have the responsibility to hold people accountable, but I want to be clear: It will not change a single vote,” he said of Hunter Biden’s legal and personal problems.If the Roberts family is taking political advice — outside of any that might come from the family attorney — they aren’t saying. In Batesville, the girl’s maternal grandmother, Kimberly Roberts, said in a brief telephone interview that she would not comment on the case.She did have one thing to say, though.“My granddaughter is happy, healthy, and very loved,” Ms. Roberts said, before hanging up.Kenneth P. Vogel More

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      ¿El próximo presidente de Colombia está listo para enfrentar la violencia?

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      BOGOTÁ — El mes pasado, una organización criminal armada paralizó casi un tercio del norte de Colombia, en buena medida sin resistencia. “A partir de esta fecha se decreta cuatro días de paro armado”, decía un panfleto del 5 de mayo que ordenaba a la gente a que permaneciera en sus casas, cerrara los negocios y vaciara las calles.El Clan del Golfo, un grupo del narcotráfico de corte paramilitar, inició el paro contra el gobierno colombiano en represalia por la captura y extradición a Estados Unidos de su líder, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, conocido como Otoniel. “No nos hacemos responsables de aquellos que no acaten las órdenes”, advertía ominosamente el grupo.Para enfatizar su mensaje, los miembros del Clan del Golfo marcaron paredes con sus iniciales en los centros urbanos, quemaron vehículos y camiones para bloquear carreteras, instalaron puestos de control ilegales y patrullaron los campos en motocicletas. Con poca policía estatal o presencia militar para proteger las zonas rurales, los colombianos en 11 de los 32 departamentos del país acataron las órdenes del grupo y se impuso una quietud fantasmal.Al final de los cuatro días, al menos ocho personas habían muerto, casi 200 vehículos habían sido incinerados y muchos de los tres millones de personas afectadas se estaban quedando sin comida y otros productos básicos.El Clan del Golfo también parece estar incidiendo en la elección presidencial. El grupo emitió amenazas por escrito a los partidarios del candidato de izquierda, Gustavo Petro, y en las zonas rurales donde el recuerdo del paro seguía presente, los líderes comunitarios dijeron que el miedo limitó la participación de los votantes.Pero tal vez porque hay mucho en juego, un porcentaje alto de votantes acudió el 29 de mayo a las urnas para la primera vuelta electoral. Petro obtuvo poco más del 40 por ciento de los 21 millones de votos totales y se enfrentará en la segunda vuelta del 19 de junio a Rodolfo Hernández, un controversial empresario inmobiliario de derecha que hizo una fuerte campaña en TikTok.Aunque ambos candidatos difieren de manera significativa en todos los temas —desde la movilidad social hasta la política exterior— comparten una debilidad: ninguno ha articulado un plan claro para detener el aumento de la amenaza armada y la violencia que afecta a la Colombia rural, como revelan las acciones del Clan del Golfo. Los números de personas desplazadas, la acumulación de asesinatos de líderes sociales y comunitarios y el reclutamiento forzoso de niños, son indicios de que la seguridad se está deteriorando con rapidez.Ni Petro ni Hernández parecen estar preparados para enfrentar los desafíos de las zonas rurales en conflicto. Además de la violencia organizada del Clan del Golfo, alrededor de una decena de otros grupos armados recorren las áreas más vulnerables del país, buscando controlar territorios para establecer rutas lucrativas de tráfico de drogas y otros mercados ilegales.El próximo presidente de Colombia debe alejarse del enfoque actual del gobierno de priorizar las capturas y extradiciones de líderes de organizaciones ilegales, como la que causó el paro armado. Esta estrategia no ha logrado desmantelar a los grupos criminales pero sí ha generado consecuencias profundas para los civiles.En cambio, el nuevo presidente debería centrarse en una política que reoriente a las fuerzas de seguridad de Colombia para proteger a los civiles de los grupos armados, que hoy ejercen una autoridad de facto en muchas partes del país. Esto, sumado a la implementación de programas sociales y una inversión sustancial en el campo, puede ayudar a cambiar el rumbo y pavimentar el camino hacia la paz.La policía colombiana escoltó a Dairo Antonio Úsuga, líder del Clan del Golfo, cuando fue extraditado a Estados Unidos en mayo.Prensa Presidencial/Agence France-Presse vía Getty ImagesEl acuerdo de paz, firmado en 2016 entre el Estado y las Fuerzas Armadas Revolucionarias de Colombia (FARC), ha logrado reducir en buena medida la violencia rural. Pero algunas regiones, como Montes de María, donde los grupos armados están tomando el control de enormes territorios —incluidas grandes áreas que las FARC solían controlar—, son un buen anticipo de la situación que enfrentará el candidato que gane la elección.Cuando visité Montes de María en marzo, me quedó claro que esta región agrícola, rica en recursos, estaba en crisis. El Clan del Golfo ha expandido agresivamente su presencia desde la firma del acuerdo de paz, reclamando rutas de tráfico e imponiendo el cobro de pagos de protección a la población. Este grupo armado —como casi todos los que hoy operan en el país— evita los enfrentamientos con los militares. Su objetivo no es tomar poder en Bogotá, sino sacar ganancias de las tierras y de su gente.Se suponía que esto no debería suceder. El acuerdo de paz con las FARC eliminaría las desigualdades que habían empoderado a las guerrillas y a los narcotraficantes. Prometía ayudar a los agricultores pobres que cultivaban coca, la materia prima de la cocaína, a abandonar un medio de vida que los exponía a la violencia. Cerca de 100.000 familias se apuntaron y arrancaron voluntariamente sus cultivos de coca.No obstante, el gobierno actual, encabezado por el presidente Iván Duque, llegó al poder en 2018 argumentando que el acuerdo de paz era demasiado indulgente con las FARC, y se ha enfocado en las partes del acuerdo afines a sus intereses políticos —como la desmovilización de excombatientes y el gasto en infraestructura— mientras que otras promesas, como abordar la desigualdad en la posesión de tierras y el respaldo a la sustitución de cultivos de coca, quedaron en el olvido.Al mismo tiempo, decenas de grupos armados, como el Clan del Golfo, han mostrado ser más ágiles, tenaces y económicamente habilidosos para aprovechar las oportunidades que ofreció el desmantelamiento de las FARC.Al interior del país, hombres armados reclutan a la fuerza a niños para engrosar sus filas, sacándolos de sus hogares y escuelas. Otros adultos jóvenes se unen por su cuenta porque, sin posibilidades de educación o trabajo, el conflicto es el único empleo disponible. En el sur de Córdoba, el Clan del Golfo se promueve como “la única empresa que tiene las puertas siempre abiertas”.La élite política colombiana considera, erróneamente, que estas amenazas están desvinculadas de la desesperación social y económica que viven muchos colombianos. Es más fácil culpar de los disturbios a otros enemigos, ya sea Venezuela, las guerrillas de izquierda o los rivales políticos. Y, de hecho, en lugar de solucionar esta situación, la respuesta más común del gobierno ha sido desplegar el ejército.Los soldados enviados para acabar con la inestabilidad saben que este enfoque no está funcionando. “Aquí no hay una solución militar”, me dijo un comandante de una brigada militar en una de las zonas de conflicto más ríspidas de Colombia, sugiriendo que lo que se necesitaba era inversión social.Por ahora, muchas de las fuerzas del gobierno están enfocadas en la erradicación forzosa de la coca, eliminando los cultivos que luego se vuelven a sembrar en tasas que, se calcula, llegan al 50 y 67 por ciento. La estrategia de las fuerzas armadas de matar y capturar a miembros de los grupos armados deriva en el reemplazo inmediato de esas bajas con nuevos reclutas.En pocas palabras, la estrategia inadecuada del gobierno colombiano en las zonas remotas es parcialmente culpable del resurgimiento de la violencia. Los candidatos presidenciales tienen la oportunidad de cambiar de rumbo.Es alentador que tanto Petro como Hernández han dicho que implementarán el acuerdo de paz de 2016, que el gobierno de Duque ha descuidado en muchos puntos. Sin embargo, ninguno de los dos ha presentado un plan claro sobre cómo gestionar el deterioro de la situación de seguridad de los ciudadanos de a pie.Petro, quien en el pasado fue parte de una organización guerrillera, se comprometió a iniciar un diálogo con los grupos armados e implementar la desmovilización de grupos del crimen organizado, como el Clan del Golfo. Hernández, por su parte, ha sugerido agregar al Ejército de Liberación Nacional (ELN) al acuerdo firmado con las FARC.Aunque en estas ideas hay algunos elementos que podrían funcionar, la mejor manera de abordar la crisis es proteger a los colombianos que viven en el epicentro del conflicto, con mejores servicios policiales, oportunidades económicas y razones concretas que les permita confiar en el gobierno.Una presión puntual de Washington puede ayudar. La reciente declaración del gobierno de Biden que destaca al acuerdo de paz es importante pero ha sido socavada por sus acciones. Los dólares estadounidenses se gastan de manera desproporcionada en enfoques de mano dura, como la erradicación forzosa de la coca, que no contribuyen mucho a resolver el problema y exacerban la desconfianza en el gobierno.La zozobra que aún acecha en las calles del norte de Colombia está avanzando demasiado rápido y lejos como para ignorarla. Los candidatos y los votantes urbanos que ignoran estos desafíos lo hacen bajo su propio riesgo. Lo que está en juego en las elecciones se extiende al futuro de un conflicto que se suponía que había terminado pero que, más bien, se está reavivando.Colombia, que ya había empezado a acabar con un conflicto armado, no debería permitir que vuelva a estallar.Elizabeth Dickinson (@dickinsonbeth) es analista sénior del International Crisis Group para Colombia, con sede en Bogotá. Antes de unirse a la organización en 2017, trabajó durante una década como periodista. More

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      How to Stop Colombia’s Surging Violence

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      BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Last month a criminal armed group shut down much of the northern third of Colombia — largely uncontested. “We decree four days of Armed Strike from this moment,” read the May 5 pamphlet ordering the population to stay indoors, the shops to close and the roads to be empty. The Gulf Clan, a paramilitary-style drug trafficking group, initiated the strike against the Colombian government in retaliation for the capture and extradition of its leader, Dairo Antonio Úsuga, known as Otoniel, to the United States. “We are not responsible for what happens to those who do not comply,” the group warned ominously.To emphasize their point, Gulf Clan members tagged walls in the urban centers with their initials, burned cars and buses to block roads, set up illegal checkpoints and patrolled rural areas by motorcycle. With little state police or military presence to protect the countryside, Colombians in 11 of the country’s 32 departments (similar to U.S. states) obeyed the illegal group’s orders, and a ghostly calm descended.After four days, at least eight people had been killed, nearly 200 vehicles were burned, and many of the three million people affected were running short on food and other basic supplies. The Gulf Clan also appears to be effecting the presidential election. The group issued direct written threats to supporters of the left-wing candidate Gustavo Petro, and in rural areas where the memory of the strike lingered, community leaders said fear did suppress some voter turnout.But perhaps because the stakes are so high, voters nationwide came to the polls at high levels for the first round of elections on May 29. Mr. Petro secured just over 40 percent of the 21 million total votes and will face off with Rodolfo Hernández, an outspoken, right-leaning real estate magnate who campaigned heavily on TikTok, in the runoff on June 19.Though the winning candidates differ significantly on everything from social mobility to foreign policy, they share one weakness: Neither has articulated a clear plan to contain rising levels of conflict and armed violence in the countryside, like the Gulf Clan actions. As seen in higher levels of displacement, assassinations of social and community leaders, and child recruitment, security is deteriorating rapidly.Neither Mr. Petro nor Mr. Hernández seems prepared to address the challenges of Colombia’s rural war zones. In addition to organized criminal violence from the Gulf Clan, about a dozen other armed groups prowl the country’s most vulnerable areas, seeking to control territories that provide lucrative drug trafficking routes. Colombia’s next president must move away from the state’s current approach of narrowly prioritizing captures and extraditions like the one that sparked the armed strike — that strategy fails to dismantle criminal groups but carries deep consequences for civilians.Instead, the new president should focus on a policy that empowers Colombia’s security forces to protect civilians from the armed groups who wield de facto authority in substantial parts of the country. This, coupled with social programs and investment in the countryside, can start to turn the tide definitively toward peace.Colombian National Police escorted Dairo Antonio Úsuga, a drug lord and head of the Gulf Clan, as he was extradited to the United States in May.Prensa Presidencial/Agence France-Presse, via Getty ImagesThe signing of a 2016 peace agreement between the state and the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, has greatly reduced rural violence nationwide. But regions like Montes de María, where armed groups are taking control of parts of the country’s vast hinterland, including large areas that the FARC used to control, offer a foretaste of the reality the winning candidate will face.When I visited Montes de María in March, it was clear that this resource-rich agricultural region was in a crisis. The Gulf Clan has aggressively expanded its presence since the peace accord, claiming lucrative trafficking routes and imposing protection taxes on the population. This armed group — like nearly all of those operating in the country today — avoids clashing with the military. Its goal is not to take over in Bogotá, but rather to suck rents out of the land and its people.This wasn’t supposed to happen. The 2016 peace accord with the FARC chipped away at the inequalities that had empowered guerrillas and drug traffickers alike. It promised to help poor farmers growing coca — the raw material for cocaine — leave behind a livelihood that exposed them to violence. Nearly 100,000 families signed up and voluntarily ripped up their coca crops.Yet the outgoing conservative government, led by President Iván Duque, entered office in 2018 alleging that the peace agreement was too lenient on the FARC and has focused on carrying out parts of the accord that serve its political interests — such as demobilizing the former FARC and infrastructure spending — while leaving others, like addressing land inequality and supporting coca crop substitution, to wither.At the same time, dozens of armed groups like the Gulf Clan have proved nimble, tenacious and economically adept at capturing the opportunities afforded by the FARC’s withdrawal.Across the countryside, armed men are forcibly recruiting children to their ranks, ripping them out of their homes and schools. Other young adults sign up willingly because, in the absence of education or jobs, fighting is the only employment on offer. “The only company whose doors are always open” is how the Gulf Clan describes itself in southern Córdoba.The ruling political elite erroneously views these threats as disconnected from the social and economic desperation experienced by many Colombians. It is easier to pin the blame for unrest on other enemies, whether it be Venezuela, leftist guerrillas or political rivals. And indeed, rather than redressing grievances, the government’s default response has been to deploy the military.The soldiers sent to stamp out instability know the approach isn’t working. “There is no military solution here,” a military brigade commander told me in one of Colombia’s fiercest conflict areas, suggesting that what was needed was social investment. For now, many of the government’s forces are tied down forcibly eradicating coca by ripping up the crops that are then replanted at rates estimated to reach between 50 percent and 67 percent. The military’s policy to kill and capture armed-group members only results in new recruits to immediately fill their shoes.Put simply, the Colombian government’s flawed strategy in the countryside is partly to blame for the resurgent violence. Presidential candidates have an opportunity to shift course.Encouragingly, both Mr. Petro and Mr. Hernández have said they will implement the 2016 peace accord, many parts of which the current government has neglected. However, neither has presented a clear plan for how to manage the deteriorating security situation for civilians. Mr. Petro, himself a former rebel, has pledged to begin a dialogue with armed groups and implement demobilization for organized crime groups like the Gulf Clan. Mr. Hernández has suggested adding the guerrilla group National Liberation Army, or ELN, to the existing accord with the FARC.While there are some elements of a solution here, the best way to avert conflict is to protect Colombians living at the heart of the conflict, with better policing, economic opportunities and concrete reasons to trust the government.The right kind of pressure from Washington can help. The Biden administration’s recent statement emphasizing the peace accord is important but undermined by its actions. U.S. dollars are disproportionately spent on strong-arm approaches, such as forced coca eradication, that do little to tackle the problem and exacerbate distrust of the government.The foreboding that still haunts the streets of the country’s north is spreading too fast and too far across Colombia to ignore. The candidates and urban voters ignore these challenges at their peril. The huge stakes of the elections extend to the future of a conflict that was supposed to be over but is instead reigniting. Having ended war here once, Colombia should not allow it to erupt again.Elizabeth Dickinson (@dickinsonbeth) is a Bogotá-based senior analyst for Colombia at the International Crisis Group. Before joining the organization in 2017, she worked for a decade as a journalist.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Drug Sentencing Bill Is in Limbo as Midterm Politics Paralyze Congress

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      A broadly supported bipartisan measure to eliminate a racial disparity in drug sentencing faces a difficult road as Republicans seek to weaponize the issue of crime against Democrats.WASHINGTON — The Equal Act would appear to be a slam dunk even in a badly divided Congress.The legislation, which aims to end a longstanding racial disparity in federal prison sentences for drug possession, passed the House overwhelmingly last year, with more than 360 votes. It has been enthusiastically embraced on the left and right and by law enforcement as a long-overdue fix for a biased policy. It has filibuster-proof bipartisan support in the Senate and the endorsement of President Biden and the Justice Department.Yet with control of Congress at stake and Republicans weaponizing a law-and-order message against Democrats in their midterm election campaigns, the fate of the measure is in doubt. Democrats worry that bringing it up would allow Republicans to demand a series of votes that could make them look soft on crime and lax on immigration — risks they are reluctant to take months before they face voters.Even the measure’s Republican backers concede that bringing it to the floor could lead to an array of difficult votes.“I assume the topic opens itself pretty wide,” said Senator Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, who became the 11th member of his party to sign on to the Equal Act this month, giving its supporters more than the 60 votes needed to overcome procedural obstacles.The drug legislation is not the only bipartisan bill caught in a midterm political squeeze. A multibillion-dollar Covid relief package has been languishing for weeks, as Republicans insist that consideration of the measure must include a vote on retaining pandemic-era immigration restrictions that the Biden administration wants to lift.Democrats are increasingly at odds with the administration over its plan to wind down the public-health rule, known as Title 42. A vote would underscore that division and potentially open some of them to a politically difficult vote.Senator Roy Blunt, Republican of Missouri, became the 11th member of his party to sign on to the legislation this month.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesThe uncertainty surrounding the bipartisan bills is a clear sign that if legislating on Capitol Hill is not already done for the year, that moment is fast approaching.Given the calendar, virtually any legislation that reaches the floor is bound to attract trouble. Even consensus measures are at risk unless enough supporters in both parties agree to band together to reject politically difficult votes that could lend themselves to 30-second attack ads — the kind of deal that grows more difficult to reach each passing day.There are exceptions. A request by Mr. Biden this week to send an additional $33 billion in aid to Ukraine to bolster the war effort is expected to draw broad bipartisan support and little dispute. Democrats are still hopeful they may be able to salvage pieces of a hulking social safety net and climate package under special rules that allow them to move forward without Republican support. But that, too, could require a series of votes orchestrated by the G.O.P. to make Democrats squirm.A Guide to the 2022 Midterm ElectionsMidterms Begin: The 2022 election season is underway. See the full primary calendar and a detailed state-by-state breakdown.In the Senate: Democrats have a razor-thin margin that could be upended with a single loss. Here are the four incumbents most at risk.In the House: Republicans and Democrats are seeking to gain an edge through redistricting and gerrymandering, though this year’s map is poised to be surprisingly fairGovernors’ Races: Georgia’s contest will be at the center of the political universe, but there are several important races across the country.Key Issues: Inflation, the pandemic, abortion and voting rights are expected to be among this election cycle’s defining topics.“What’s hurting bipartisanship is that even when there’s enough Republican support to pass a bill, the hard-right militants sabotage it to score political points, and gridlock prevails,” said Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader. “But there’s always hope that cooler heads prevail, and occasionally they do.”Backers of the Equal Act and other criminal justice legislation said they hoped that was true for them. They insist that they can still get their bill passed this year, and that opposition will backfire politically.“This is a real opportunity for bipartisan achievement to eliminate one of the worst vestiges of injustice from American drug policy,” said Holly Harris, the president and executive director of the Justice Action Network and a leading proponent of criminal justice changes. “Those who seek to thwart this opportunity for 15 minutes of fame, five minutes of fame — I don’t think that’s going to be rewarded by voters.”The measure has bipartisan support in the Senate and the endorsement of President Biden and the Justice Department.T.J. Kirkpatrick for The New York TimesIn a letter to Senate leaders this week, Ms. Harris’s group and about 50 law enforcement, progressive and conservative organizations urged them to quickly take up the legislation, saying that “we cannot miss this moment to right this decades-long wrong.”The legislation would eliminate the current 18-to-1 disparity in sentencing for crack cocaine versus powder. The policy that can be traced to the “war on drugs” mind-set of the 1980s, which treated those trafficking in crack cocaine more harshly. It resulted in a disproportionate number of Black Americans facing longer sentences for drug offenses than white Americans, who were usually arrested with the powder version.As a senator, Mr. Biden was one of the champions of the policy; it has since become widely discredited, and he has disavowed it.The United States Sentencing Commission has said that passage of the legislation could reduce the sentences of more than 7,600 federal prisoners. The average 14-year sentence would be cut by about six years, it estimated.Though Mr. Schumer endorsed the legislation in April, he has not laid out a timeline for bringing it to the floor. Democrats say he is giving backers of the bill a chance to build additional support and find a way to advance the measure without causing a floor fight that could take weeks — time that Democrats do not have if they want to continue to win approval of new judges and take care of other business before the end of the year.“Getting the opportunity is the challenge,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin, Democrat of Illinois and one of the original sponsors of the legislation. “We just don’t move many free-standing bills which involve some controversy.”Its supporters say that they recognize the difficulties but believe that it is the single piece of criminal justice legislation with a chance of reaching the president’s desk in the current political environment.“Of all the criminal justice bills, this is the one that is set up for success right now,” said Inimai Chettiar, the federal director for the Justice Action Network. “It is not going to be easy on the floor, but I think it is doable.”The problem is that the push comes as top Republicans have made clear that they intend to try to capitalize on public concern about increasing crime in the battle for Senate and House control in November.The approach was crystallized in their attacks on Judge Ketanji Brown Jackson during her Supreme Court confirmation hearings last month, as they accused her of leniency in sentencing. Given the rise in crime and drug overdoses, some Republicans say they are also having second thoughts about the landmark First Step Act, a sweeping bipartisan law passed in 2018 that freed thousands from prison after their sentences were reduced in a bid to ease mass incarceration.Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and minority leader, this week reprised his criticism of Judge Jackson and attacked Mr. Biden for having issued his first round of pardons and commutations, including for those convicted of drug crimes.“They never miss an opportunity to send the wrong signal,” he said of Democrats.Senator Tom Cotton, the Arkansas Republican who led the opposition to the First Step Act, said he was in no mood to let the Equal Act sail through. He has said that if the disparity is to be erased, penalties for powder cocaine should be increased.Demonstrators at a criminal justice reform rally in Washington in 2018.Aaron P. Bernstein/Getty Images“My opposition to the Equal Act will be as strong as my opposition to the First Step Act,” Mr. Cotton said.The legislation encountered another complication on Thursday, when Senators Charles E. Grassley of Iowa and Mike Lee of Utah, two top Republican supporters of the previous criminal justice overhaul, introduced a competing bill that would reduce — but not eliminate — the sentencing disparity between crack and powder cocaine. They said that research showed that crack traffickers were more likely to return to crime and carry deadly weapons.“Our legislation will significantly reduce this disparity while ensuring those more likely to reoffend face appropriate penalties,” said Mr. Grassley, the top Republican on the Judiciary Committee.Sponsors of the Equal Act say they intend to push forward and remain optimistic that they can overcome the difficulties.“We’ve got an amazing bill, and we’ve got 11 Republicans and people want to get this done,” said Senator Cory Booker, Democrat of New Jersey and the lead sponsor of the legislation. “My hope is that we are going to have a shot to get this done right now.”Ms. Harris said that Democrats must recognize Republicans will attack them as soft on crime regardless of whether they act on the measure.“They are fearing something that is already happening,” she said. “Why not dig in, stay true to your principles, and do what is right for the American people? Maybe, just maybe, the politics will shake out.” More