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    En Colombia, Petro y Hernández a segunda vuelta por la presidencia

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    Los resultados de la primera ronda de votaciones asestaron un duro golpe a la clase política conservadora en Colombia.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Dos candidatos antisistema, el líder de la izquierda Gustavo Petro y el populista de derecha Rodolfo Hernández, tomaron los primeros lugares en las elecciones presidenciales de Colombia, asestando un duro golpe a la clase política dominante y conservadora del país.Los dos hombres se enfrentarán en una segunda vuelta electoral el 19 de junio, que se perfila como una de las más importantes en la historia del país. Está en juego el modelo económico del país, su integridad democrática y los medios de vida de millones de personas que se sumieron en la pobreza durante la pandemia.Con más del 99 por ciento de las boletas contadas el domingo en la noche, Petro logró el respaldo de más del 40 por ciento de los votos, mientras que Hernández recibió poco más del 28 por ciento. Hernández superó por más de cuatro puntos de porcentaje al candidato de la clase dirigente conservadora, Federico Gutiérrez, que figuraba en segundo lugar en las encuestas.La inesperada victoria de Hernández al segundo lugar muestra a una nación deseosa de elegir a cualquiera que no represente a los dominantes líderes conservadores del país.Según el politólogo colombiano Daniel García-Peña, el enfrentamiento entre Petro y Hernández representa el “cambio contra el cambio”.Durante meses, las encuestas habían mostrado a Petro, que plantea una modificación al modelo económico capitalista del país, aventajando al exalcalde conservador de Medellín Federico Gutiérrez.Fue solo recientemente que Hernandez, postulándose con una plataforma populista y anticorrupción, empezó a subir en los sondeos.Gustavo Petro y Francia Márquez celebrando en Bogotá, la noche del domingo.Federico Rios para The New York TimesSi Petro al final gana en la próxima ronda de votaciones sería un momento histórico para una de las sociedades más políticamente conservadoras de América Latina, lo que pondría a Colombia en una senda nueva y desconocida.En su discurso luego de las elecciones, en un hotel cerca del centro de Bogotá, Petro estuvo acompañado por su candidata a la vicepresidencia y dijo que los resultados del domingo mostraban que el proyecto político del actual presidente y sus aliados “ha sido derrotado”.Luego, rápidamente emitió advertencias sobre Hernández y dijo que votar por él era una regresión peligrosa y desafió al electorado a arriesgarse en lo que calificó como un proyecto progresista, “un cambio de verdad”.Su ascenso refleja no solo un viraje a la izquierda en toda América Latina, sino un impulso contra los gobiernos de turno que ha cobrado fuerza a medida que la pandemia ha agravado la pobreza y la desigualdad, intensificando la sensación de que las economías de la región están construidas principalmente para servir a las élites.Ese resentimiento contra el establecimiento político parece haberle dado a Hernández un empujón en la segunda vuelta e indica el poder menguante del uribismo, un conservadurismo de línea dura que ha dominado la política colombiana en las últimas dos décadas y que se llama así por su fundador, el expresidente Álvaro Uribe.En las mesas de votación de todo el país el domingo, los seguidores de Petro mencionaron esa frustración y un renovado sentimiento de esperanza.“Es un momento histórico que está viviendo Colombia. No queremos más continuismo, no queremos más Uribismo”, dijo Chiro Castellanos, de 37 años, seguidor de Petro en Sincelejo, una ciudad cercana a la costa caribeña. “Siento que esto es un cambio, es un proyecto de país que no es solo Gustavo Petro”.Pero en muchos lugares también había temor de lo que ese cambio podría significar, así como llamados a un enfoque más moderado.“Realmente este país está vuelto nada”, comentó Myriam Matallana, de 55 años, simpatizante de Gutiérrez en Bogotá, la capital. Pero con Petro, dijo, “sería peor”.Rodolfo Hernández después de votar en Bucaramanga, Colombia, el domingoReutersPetro ha prometido transformar el sistema económico de Colombia, que dice que alimenta la desigualdad, con la expansión de programas sociales, un alto a la exploración petrolera y el cambio del enfoque del país hacia la industria y la agricultura nacional.Durante mucho tiempo, Colombia ha sido el aliado más fuerte de Estados Unidos en la región y un triunfo de Petro podría significar un enfrentamiento con Washington. El candidato pidió un reajuste de la relación, lo que incluye cambios en el enfoque de la guerra contra las drogas y una reevaluación de un acuerdo comercial bilateral.Las elecciones se producen en un momento en el que las encuestas muestran una creciente desconfianza en las instituciones del país, incluido el Congreso, los partidos políticos, el Ejército, la prensa y la Registraduría Nacional, un organismo electoral.También sucede en momentos en que la violencia va en aumento; a principios de este mes un grupo criminal emitió una orden de inamovilidad que paralizó a una parte considerable del país por al menos cuatro días.Antes de las elecciones existía la preocupación generalizada de que esos factores podrían afectar el proceso democrático.La elección se produce en un momento en que las encuestas muestran una creciente desconfianza en las instituciones del país.Federico Rios para The New York Times“Si nos quedamos en casa diciendo ‘todo el mundo es corrupto’, no vamos a lograr nada”, dijo María Gañan, de 27 años, que votó por Hernández en Bogotá. “Queremos cambiar la historia del país”.Hernández, quien era relativamente desconocido hasta hace unas pocas semanas, se presentó a los votantes como un candidato anticorrupción, y propuso recompensar a los ciudadanos por denunciar actos de corrupción y nombrar a colombianos que ya residen en el exterior en posiciones diplomáticas, lo que él dice que ahorrará en gastos de viaje y otros costos, además de prohibir festejos innecesarios en las embajadas.“Hoy perdió el país de la politiquería y la corrupción”, dijo Hernández en una nota que publicó en Facebook para sus seguidores, tras los resultados del domingo.“Hoy perdieron las gavillas que creerían que serían gobierno eternamente”, añadió.Pero algunas de las propuestas de Hernández han sido criticadas como antidemocráticas.En específico, ha propuesto declarar un estado de emergencia por 90 días y suspender todas las funciones judiciales y administrativas para combatir la corrupción, generando temores de que pueda clausurar el congreso o suspender a los alcaldes.Votación en el norte del Cauca, en ColombiaFederico Rios para The New York TimesMuchos votantes están hartos del aumento de precios, el alto desempleo, el alza en los costos de la educación, la violencia y los sondeos muestran que una clara mayoría de colombianos tienen una opinión desfavorable del actual gobierno conservador.Otros candidatos que impulsaron cambios han sido asesinados durante las campañas electorales en Colombia. Petro y su compañera de fórmula, Francia Márquez, han recibido amenazas de muerte, lo que ocasionó que se reforzara su seguridad con guardaespaldas y escudos antibalas.Sin embargo, la elección también se caracterizó por la ampliación del espectro político.En cuestión de meses, Márquez, una activista ambiental que, de triunfar se convertiría en la primera vicepresidenta negra del país, se transformó en un fenómeno nacional, y brindó a las elecciones un enfoque de género, raza y conciencia de clase que pocos candidatos han logrado invocar en la historia del país.Su popularidad ha sido considerada como el reflejo del profundo deseo de muchos votantes —negros, indígenas, pobres, campesinos— de verse representados en los cargos más altos del poder.El domingo, Márquez podría haber votado en la capital del país. Pero decidió viajar al departamento suroccidental del Cauca, donde se crió.Francia Márquez, la candidata a vicepresidente de la izquierda, voto en su pueblo natal de Suárez, al norte de Cauca, en Colombia, diciendo que representaba a “los históricamente excluidos”.Federico Rios for The New York Times“Hoy están partiendo la historia de este país en dos”, dijo poco después de depositar su voto. “Hoy una de los nadies y las nadies, de los históricamente excluidos, se pone de pie para ocupar la política”.Sofía Villamil More

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      In Colombia, a Leftist and a Right-Wing Populist Head for June Runoff

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      The results in the first round of voting delivered a stunning blow to Colombia’s dominant conservative political class.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — Two anti-establishment candidates, Gustavo Petro, a leftist, and Rodolfo Hernández, a right-wing populist, captured the top two spots in Colombia’s presidential election on Sunday, delivering a stunning blow to Colombia’s dominant conservative political class.The two men will compete in a runoff election on June 19 that is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in the country’s history. At stake is the country’s economic model, its democratic integrity and the livelihoods of millions of people pushed into poverty during the pandemic.With more than 99 percent of the ballots counted on Sunday evening, Mr. Petro received more than 40 percent of the vote, while Mr. Hernández received just over 28 percent. Mr. Hernández beat by more than four percentage points the conservative establishment candidate, Federico Gutiérrez, who had been polling in second place.Mr. Hernández’s unexpected second-place victory shows a nation hungry to elect anyone who is not represented by the country’s mainstream conservative leaders. The Petro-Hernández face-off, said Daniel García-Peña, a Colombian political scientist, pits “change against change.”For months, polls have shown Mr. Petro, who is proposing an overhaul of the country’s capitalist economic model, leading against a conservative former mayor, Federico Gutiérrez.It was only recently that Mr. Hernández, running on a populist, anti-corruption platform, had begun rising in the polls.Gustavo Petro and Francia Márquez celebrating in Bogotá on Sunday night. Federico Rios for The New York TimesIf Mr. Petro ultimately wins in the next round of voting, it would mark a watershed moment for one of the most politically conservative societies in Latin America, and it would set Colombia on an uncharted path.In his postelection speech at a hotel near the center of Bogotá, Mr. Petro stood beside his vice-presidential pick and said Sunday’s results showed that the political project of the current president and his allies “has been defeated.”He then quickly issued warnings about Mr. Hernández, painting a vote for him as a dangerous regression, and daring the electorate to take a chance on what he called a progressive project, “a true change.”Mr. Petro’s rise reflects not just a leftist shift across Latin America, but also an anti-incumbent fervor that has gained strength as the pandemic has deepened poverty and inequality, intensifying feelings that the region’s economies are built mostly to serve the elite.That same anti-incumbent sentiment appeared to give Mr. Hernández a late lift into the runoff, and pointed to the waning power of Uribismo, a hard-line conservatism that has dominated politics in Colombia for the last two decades, named for its founder, former president Álvaro Uribe.At polling stations around the country on Sunday, supporters of Mr. Petro spoke to that frustration, and to a renewed sense of hope.“This is a historic moment for Colombia, we don’t want more continuity,” said Chiro Castellanos, 37, a Petro supporter in Sincelejo, a city near the Caribbean coast. “This marks a change, it’s a countrywide project that is not just about Gustavo Petro.”But in many places there was also fear of what that change might look like, and calls for a more moderate approach.“This country is in trouble,” said Myriam Matallana, 55, a supporter of Mr. Gutiérrez, in Bogotá, the capital. But with Mr. Petro, “it would be worse.”Rodolfo Hernández after voting in Bucaramanga, Colombia, on Sunday.ReutersMr. Petro has vowed to transform Colombia’s economic system, which he says fuels inequality, by expanding social programs, halting oil exploration and shifting the country’s focus to domestic agriculture and industry.Colombia has long been the United States’ strongest ally in the region, and a win for Mr. Petro could set up a clash with Washington. The candidate has called for a reset of the bilateral relationship, including changes to the approach to the drug war and a re-examination of a trade agreement.The election comes as surveys show growing distrust in most of the country’s institutions, including congress, political parties, the police, the military, the press and the national registrar, a key electoral body.It also comes amid rising violence that included a stay-at-home order issued by a criminal group earlier this month that paralyzed a sizable part of the nation for at least four days.Ahead of the election, there was widespread concern that these factors would stifle the democratic process.The election comes as surveys show growing distrust in most of the country’s institutions, including congress, political parties, the police, the military, the press and the national registrar, a key electoral body.Federico Rios for The New York Times“If we stay at home and say, ‘Everyone is corrupt,’ we’re not going to accomplish anything,” said María Gañan, 27, who voted for Mr. Hernández in Bogotá. “We want to change the history of the country.”Mr. Hernández, who was relatively unknown before until just a few weeks ago, branded himself as an anti-corruption candidate, and has proposed rewarding citizens for reporting corruption, appointing Colombians already living abroad to diplomatic positions, which he says will yield savings on travel and other expenses, and banning unnecessary parties at embassies.“Today the country of politicking and corruption lost,” Mr. Hernández wrote in a Facebook message to his supporters following Sunday’s results.“Today, the gangs who thought that they could govern forever have lost,” he added.But some of Mr. Hernández’s proposals have been criticized as undemocratic.Specifically, he’s proposed declaring a state of emergency for 90 days and suspending all judicial and administrative functions in order to address corruption, leading to fears that he could shut down Congress or suspend mayors.Election Day in Suarez, north of Cauca, in Colombia.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMany voters are fed up with rising prices, high unemployment, low wages, rising education costs and surging violence, and polls show that a clear majority of Colombians have an unfavorable view of current conservative administration.Candidates pushing change have been killed on the campaign trail in Colombia before. Mr. Petro and his running mate, Francia Márquez, have both received death threats, prompting increased security, including bodyguards holding riot shields.Yet the election was also marked by a broadening of the political tent.In a matter of months, Ms. Márquez, an environmental activist who would be the country’s first Black vice president if she won, has morphed into a national phenomenon, infusing the election with a gender, race and class-conscious focus like few other candidates in the country’s history.Her popularity has been viewed overwhelmingly as a reflection of a deep desire by many voters — Black, Indigenous, poor, rural — to see themselves in the highest halls of power.On Sunday, she could have voted in the capital. Instead, she chose to travel to the southwestern department of Cauca, where she grew up.Francia Márquez, the left’s vice-presidential candidate, voting in her hometown Suarez, North of Cauca, in Colombia. Federico Rios for The New York Times“Today we are splitting the country’s history in two,” she said on Sunday, shortly after casting her ballot. “Today, one of the nobodies, the historically excluded, is standing up to occupy a place in politics.”Reporting was contributed by Sofía Villamil, Megan Janetsky and Genevieve Glatsky in Bogotá, and by Federico Rios in Suarez, Cauca. More

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      Colombia’s Troubles Put a President’s Legacy on the Line

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      SEOUL — Iván Duque swept into Colombia’s presidency in 2018 as a young, little-known technocrat riding a surging right-wing movement. He tapped public anger against a peace deal that he said had treated the country’s deadly insurgents too softly. And he warned that the proposals of his left-wing opponent could stifle steady growth.Three years and a global pandemic later, it is Mr. Duque who is presiding over high unemployment and an angry electorate — and who is on the defensive about the steps he has taken to tame persistent violence by militants.Mr. Duque contends his policies have opened opportunities for the middle- and low-income classes, encouraged entrepreneurship and paved the way for Colombia to return to its prepandemic growth. He also touted social policies that could address issues of police conduct and social inequality that led to violent clashes this year, killing dozens.Mr. Duque after he won office in 2018, riding a surging right-wing movement. Three years into his term, he is presiding over high unemployment and an angry electorate.Andres Stapff/Reuters“The three pillars of our overall plan of government, which were legality, entrepreneurship and equality, have been producing results,” Mr. Duque said last week in an interview in South Korea with The New York Times. “Obviously, they were affected by the pandemic. But I think we have demonstrated our resilient spirit.”Mr. Duque’s legacy — and that of his patron, the firebrand former President Álvaro Uribe, who still dominates Colombian politics — is on the line. Colombian voters go to the polls in May, when Gustavo Petro, a former presidential candidate, previous mayor of Bogotá and a onetime guerrilla member, could become the country’s furthest-left leader in its history at a time when leftists are again claiming victories across South America.Mr. Duque can’t run again because of term limits, and his party’s candidate hasn’t been determined. Still, his government faces some of the lowest approval ratings of his presidency. Colombia’s economy, trade and investment from abroad were hit hard by the coronavirus, which exacerbated long-running social tensions over stark wealth inequality and police conduct.Colombia’s economy, trade and investment from abroad were hit hard by the coronavirus, which exacerbated long-running social tensions.Federico Rios for The New York TimesHe has also come under increased pressure to tame Colombia’s armed insurgencies and hasten the fulfillment of the government’s peace deal with the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, known by the Spanish acronym FARC, despite his criticism of the terms of the deal on the 2018 campaign trail.In South Korea, Mr. Duque was seeking trade and investment opportunities, such as expansions by Korean manufacturers and increased sales of Colombian coffee, avocados and bananas. He even cited the filming of a South Korean movie — Mr. Duque has long championed creative investments in areas like the arts and research — in Bogotá.The president is trying “to get South Korean investors interested in playing big ball,” said Sergio Guzmán, of the Bogotá-based consulting firm Colombia Risk Analysis.The challenge for Mr. Duque, Mr. Guzmán added, is that a victory by Mr. Petro could undo what he and his predecessors had accomplished.“He’s a weak president,” said Mr. Guzmán. “He’s a lame-duck president. He’s a president whose most important legacy will be for his successor not to be able to undo his own policies.”FARC rebels in the mountains of Colombia in 2018. Mr. Duque has come under increased pressure to tame Colombia’s armed insurgencies.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMr. Duque disputed that, saying that his efforts — including wage subsidies and a proposal to widen university access — could help put the economy back on track. Though a protégé of Mr. Uribe, the charismatic leader who revved up the government’s offensive against FARC nearly two decades ago, Mr. Duque never fully fit the populist mold. Born into a politically prominent family, the 45-year-old president worked for years in development banking. He speaks in clipped, think-tank English: “I will give you very concise numbers,” he said at one point before doing exactly that.He was elected after campaigning on increasing economic growth and changing the terms of the peace accord with FARC, but he quickly ran into challenges. In 2019, frustration over the lack of opportunities and possible pension changes sparked mass protests. So did a tax proposal this year meant to close a fiscal hole exacerbated by the pandemic.Mr. Duque’s tax proposal had merit, said Luis Fernando Mejía, director of the Colombian research institute Fedesarrollo, but he seemed unable to sell it to the public.The firebrand former President Álvaro Uribe, who still dominates Colombian politics.Federico Rios for The New York Times“It was a very, very good reform,” he said, “but he was not able to consolidate political capital and to create an adequate strategy to push through a reform that I think had been very important.”Mr. Duque is also trying to thread the policy needle in a polarized time, making it increasing difficult to please both his party’s base and unhappy voters.The tax protests became part of broader unrest over inequality and police violence. Some police used brutal and deadly force on demonstrators.In the interview, Mr. Duque cited his efforts to increase scrutiny on the police and to equip them with body cameras. But he said some of the demonstrators had been spurred by “people producing fake news” and other instigators to elevate the violence.His trickiest balancing act may be enacting the peace accord with FARC. In 2019, his effort to alter the terms, including tougher sentencing for war crimes, failed on legal grounds. Internationally, he is under intense pressure to carry out the accord, but domestically, his party and other conservatives continue to criticize it.Students protesting against changes to the tax code in Bogotá, the capital, in 2019.Juan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJust weeks ahead of the deal’s five-year anniversary, more than half of its measures have not been applied or have barely begun, according to the Kroc Institute at the University of Notre Dame, an independent entity charged with oversight of the deal. Opposition groups and some of the electorate say Mr. Duque missed a critical window to push it forward.Mr. Duque and his supporters point to the accord’s time frame, which calls for its tenets to be enacted over 15 years. In the interview, he said that he had done more than his predecessor, Juan Manuel Santos, to put in place the peace deal’s landownership overhauls and development plans that would give poor farmers and former rebels jobs and opportunities.“We have been not only implementing, but the issues that we have been implementing are going to be decisive for the evolution of the accords,” he said, adding, “We have made a good progress.”Mr. Duque must balance competing interests overseas, as well. Tensions have risen between the United States — Colombia’s longtime ally — and China, a growing source of business for the country. China, Colombia’s second-largest trading partner after the United States, has invested in mines in the country and successfully bid on engineering contracts.A temporary hospital set up in April to house Covid patients in Bogotá.Federico Rios for The New York TimesMr. Duque said that the Chinese companies had won the work in open bids and that relations with the United States remained warm. “We try to build our relationship with our partners based on investment and trade and common opportunities. But usually I have to highlight that in the case of the United States, our alliance has been existing for almost 200 years, and we will continue to see the United States as No. 1.”With the United States, relations hit an awkward moment last year when members of Mr. Duque’s party endorsed Donald J. Trump and Republicans in the election, provoking a rare rebuke from the U.S. ambassador.“I think that was unwise,” Mr. Duque said. “I think that should have not been done.”These examples of polarization, he said, have complicated efforts to fix deep-rooted problems. The world is polarized, he said, as people “connect demagoguery and populism with violent sentiments and algorithms and people producing fake news and manipulating the truth.”He added, “That’s why we have concentrated in our administration not to promote polarization, but to move the country to the right direction.”Gustavo Petro, center, during a protest against tax changes in 2019. A former presidential candidate, he could become the country’s furthest-left leader in its history.Juan Barreto/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesCarlos Tejada More