More stories

  • in

    What to Do When You’ve Felt an Earthquake

    And what else to know when the Earth moves.If you just felt the ground shaking, you might be wondering what happened or how to react the next time an earthquake strikes. Here are the answers to some common questions about earthquakes.What causes them?To understand earthquakes, imagine the Earth as an egg, said Mark Benthien, the communications director for the Statewide California Earthquake Center, a research organization.The egg’s shell represents the Earth’s crust, and “if you look at it from a worldwide view, there are 12 or so major egg pieces of the crust that are called plates,” Mr. Benthien said. Pieces of the egg’s shell — tectonic plates — move around slowly, about as quickly as your fingernails grow, building up pressure between them.Most earthquakes occur when the force of the moving tectonic plates exceeds the friction between them. When this happens, the pressure releases suddenly and plates move into, past or away from one another. The pressure is released as seismic waves that pass through the earth, causing the ground to shake.In rare cases, an earthquake can also occur in the interior of a tectonic plate.Earthquakes can also be caused by human action, such as the disposal of waste fluids as part of the process of oil production.Can earthquakes be predicted?No. It is not possible to predict where or when an earthquake might happen.However, national seismic hazard maps from the U.S. Geological Survey describe how many strong earthquakes are likely to happen in the next 10,000 years in the United States. More earthquakes with damaging shaking are likely to occur along the West Coast, along Alaska’s south coast and in parts of Hawaii, Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    A Look at Taiwan’s Strongest Earthquakes

    The magnitude 7.4 earthquake in Taiwan on Wednesday was the strongest in 25 years, the island’s Central Weather Administration said.Here’s a look back at some of the major earthquakes in modern Taiwanese history:In September 1999, a 7.6 magnitude earthquake in central Taiwan killed nearly 2,500 people, the United States Geological Survey said. It was the second-deadliest in the island’s history, according to the U.S.G.S. and Taiwan’s Central Weather Administration. More than 10,000 people were injured and more than 100,000 homes were destroyed or damaged.Taiwan’s deadliest quake registered a magnitude of 7.1 and struck near the island’s west coast in April 1935, killing more than 3,200 people, the Central Weather Administration said. More than 12,000 others were injured and more than 50,000 homes were destroyed or damaged.A magnitude 7.3 earthquake in December 1941, which struck southwestern Taiwan, caused several hundred deaths, the U.S.G.S. said.A 6.4 magnitude earthquake in February 2016 caused a 17-story apartment complex in southwestern Taiwan to collapse, killing at least 114 people. The U.S.G.S. later said that 90 earthquakes of that scale or greater had occurred within 250 kilometers, or 155 miles, of that quake’s location over the previous 100 years. More

  • in

    Trump Wins Iowa, and Iceland’s Volcanic Eruption

    The New York Times Audio app is home to journalism and storytelling, and provides news, depth and serendipity. If you haven’t already, download it here — available to Times news subscribers on iOS — and sign up for our weekly newsletter.The Headlines brings you the biggest stories of the day from the Times journalists who are covering them, all in about five minutes.Former President Donald J. Trump’s sweep of the Iowa caucuses was broad and deep.Doug Mills/The New York TimesOn Today’s Episode:5 Takeaways From Trump’s Runaway Victory in the Iowa Caucuses, by Lisa Lerer, Maggie Haberman and Jonathan SwanWhat to Know as Trump Faces Another Defamation Trial by E. Jean Carroll, by Benjamin Weiser and Maggie Haberman, with Maria CramerSenate to Vote on Potential Freeze to Israel Aid as Democrats Question Conduct of War, by Karoun DemirjianU.S. Defense Secretary Is Released From the Hospital After 2 Weeks, by Eric SchmittIceland Faces ‘New Chapter’ of Seismic Activity as Lava Menaces Town, by Egill Bjarnason and Emma Bubola75th Emmy Awards Ceremony: ‘Succession’ Wins Emmy for Best Drama and ‘The Bear’ Best Comedy, by John KoblinJessica Metzger and More

  • in

    Biden’s Rating Dips on Gaza, and Marvel Drops Actor

    The New York Times Audio app is home to journalism and storytelling, and provides news, depth and serendipity. If you haven’t already, download it here — available to Times news subscribers on iOS — and sign up for our weekly newsletter.The Headlines brings you the biggest stories of the day from the Times journalists who are covering them, all in about five minutes.President Biden during a broadcast from the Oval Office after visiting Israel in October, following the breakout of the war against Hamas.Tom Brenner for The New York TimesOn Today’s Episode:Poll Finds Wide Disapproval of Biden on Gaza, by Jonathan Weisman, Ruth Igielnik and Alyce McFaddenCompanies divert ships from Red Sea route, by Andrés R. MartínezAbbott Signs Law Allowing Texas to Arrest Migrants, Setting Up Federal Showdown, by J. David GoodmanMarvel Will Part Ways With Jonathan Majors After Guilty Verdict, by Jonah Bromwich, Erin Nolan and Nicole SperlingAfter Weeks of Warnings, Iceland Volcano Erupts in Plumes of Fire, by Egill Bjarnason and Claire MosesJessica Metzger and More

  • in

    Las elecciones presidenciales de Turquía en cinco puntos clave

    Las crisis, incluidos los terremotos y la inflación, no impidieron la reelección de Recep Tayyip Erdogan. La votación se consideró libre, pero no justa, ya que Erdogan utilizó su poder para inclinar la balanza.ESTAMBUL — La reelección del presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan le ha otorgado cinco años más para profundizar su impronta conservadora en la sociedad turca y hacer realidad su ambición de aumentar el poder económico y geopolítico del país.El Consejo Supremo Electoral de Turquía nombró a Erdogan vencedor después de una segunda vuelta electoral el domingo 28 de mayo. Ganó el 52,1 por ciento de los votos contra el candidato de la oposición, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, quien obtuvo el 47,9 por ciento con casi todos los votos escrutados, dijo el consejo.Las elecciones fueron seguidas de cerca por los aliados de Turquía en la OTAN, incluido Estados Unidos, que a menudo ha visto a Erdogan como un socio frustrante debido a su retórica antioccidental y sus estrechos vínculos con el presidente de Rusia, Vladimir Putin, los cuales han crecido desde la invasión rusa a Ucrania.Erdogan no ha dado indicios de que planee cambiar su política exterior, en la que ha buscado utilizar la ubicación de Turquía en la confluencia de Europa, Asia y Medio Oriente para expandir su influencia, o a nivel nacional, donde ha consolidado el poder en sus manos y respondió a una crisis inflacionaria con medidas poco convencionales que, según los economistas, exacerbaron el problema.En las elecciones lo desafió una oposición recientemente unida que calificó la votación como un momento decisivo para la democracia turca. El candidato de la oposición, Kilicdaroglu, se postuló como una figura anti-Erdogan y prometió restaurar las libertades civiles y mejorar los vínculos con Occidente. Se presentó a sí mismo como un candidato más en contacto con las luchas del ciudadano común.A continuación, algunas conclusiones:Las crisis perjudicaron, pero no abatieron a ErdoganEl candidato de la oposición, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a la derecha en esta pancarta en Estambul, se presentó como una figura anti-Erdogan.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesEstas fueron las elecciones más desafiantes de los 20 años de Erdogan como el político más prominente de Turquía, como primer ministro desde 2003 y como presidente desde 2014. Antes de la votación, la mayoría de las encuestas apuntaban a una contienda reñida con Kilicdaroglu a la cabeza.Los analistas citaron varias razones por las que Erdogan podría tener problemas. La indignación por una dolorosa crisis del costo de vida puso a algunos votantes en su contra. Los fuertes terremotos de febrero acabaron con la vida de más de 50.000 personas y dañaron cientos de edificios en el sur de Turquía. Muchos sobrevivientes del terremoto se quejaron de la lenta respuesta inicial del gobierno, mientras que la destrucción planteó dudas sobre si la prisa de Erdogan por desarrollar el país había fomentado una construcción insegura.La oposición históricamente dividida de Turquía dejó de lado sus diferencias para unirse en apoyo a Kilicdaroglu y alegó que se requería un cambio para detener la caída del país hacia la autocracia.Pero Erdogan prevaleció, gracias al ferviente apoyo de una parte importante de la población y sus habilidades como político en campaña. Los conservadores religiosos que aprecian su expansión del papel del islam en la vida pública lo apoyaron e incluso muchos de los turcos indignados por la inflación afirmaron que no creían que la oposición pudiera gobernar mejor.El terremoto no tuvo un gran impacto sobre las eleccionesPersonas haciendo fila para la distribución de suministros tras los terremotos que sacudieron la ciudad de Antioquía, en febrero. La participación en las elecciones en las zonas afectadas por el sismo fue sorprendentemente alta.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesErdogan llegó al poder hace 20 años en medio de la indignación por la desastrosa respuesta del gobierno a un terremoto cerca de Estambul en 1999 en el que murieron más de 17.000 personas. Es por eso que muchos esperaban que el terremoto de este año también perjudicara sus posibilidades.Pero hay pocos indicios de que eso haya sucedido.Erdogan salió victorioso en ocho de las 11 provincias afectadas por el terremoto de febrero. A su partido, el gobernante Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo, y a sus aliados políticos les fue incluso mejor, pues ganaron la mayoría de los votos en las elecciones parlamentarias simultáneas en todas menos una de las provincias afectadas por el terremoto.La participación en la zona del terremoto también fue alta, a pesar de las preocupaciones de que muchos votantes desplazados por la destrucción tendrían dificultades para regresar a casa, como se requería, para emitir sus votos. Aunque la participación en las 11 provincias afectadas por el terremoto fue inferior al 88,9 por ciento de los votantes aptos que emitieron su voto a nivel nacional, en ninguna de esas provincias la participación fue menor del 80 por ciento.Entrevistas con sobrevivientes del terremoto indicaron muchas razones por las que el desastre no había cambiado su perspectiva política. Algunos describieron el terremoto como un acto de Dios al que cualquier gobierno habría tenido problemas para responder. Otros cuyas casas fueron destruidas dijeron que tenían más fe en Erdogan para reconstruir las zonas afectadas que en su rival.Las advertencias sobre el terrorismo resonaron en los votantesSimpatizantes de Erdogan en Estambul el domingo. Erdogan hizo de la oposición a los militantes kurdos un tema clave de su campañaSergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesErdogan socavó a la oposición al retratar a sus líderes como débiles e incompetentes, pero una línea de ataque resultó ser especialmente potente: las acusaciones de que serían blandos con el terrorismo.El mandatario planteó esta idea a los votantes en diversas ocasiones, argumentando que la oposición había recibido el apoyo del principal partido prokurdo de Turquía. A menudo, el gobierno acusa a ese partido de colaborar con militantes de la minoría kurda de Turquía, quienes, buscando autonomía, han estado en guerra con el Estado turco por décadas.Erdogan llegó incluso a transmitir videos manipulados en sus mítines para mostrar a los líderes militantes cantando la canción de campaña de Kilicdaroglu. Muchos votantes le creyeron y dijeron en entrevistas que no confiaban en la oposición para mantener la seguridad del país.El voto fue libre pero no justoRecuento de votos en Estambul el domingo. El contrincante de la oposición no impugnó el recuento, pero dijo que la elección en general fue injusta.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesLos observadores internacionales no reportaron problemas a gran escala con el proceso de recolección y conteo de votos, considerando el proceso libre.Sin embargo, señalaron las enormes ventajas que tenía Erdogan antes de que comenzara la votación, incluida su capacidad para liberar miles de millones de dólares en gastos estatales para tratar de compensar los efectos negativos de la inflación y otras tensiones económicas y la cobertura mediática abundante y positiva que recibió del canal financiado por el Estado.En las últimas horas del domingo, Kilicdaroglu no cuestionó el recuento de votos, pero les dijo a sus seguidores que las elecciones en general habían sido “uno de los procesos electorales más injustos de los últimos años”.Muchos en la oposición temen que la contienda reñida impulse a Erdogan a tomar medidas más agresivas contra sus oponentes políticos para evitar un reto así de difícil en el futuro.Erdogan ahora debe abordar los problemas económicosTurquía ha recurrido a sus reservas de divisas extranjeras mientras intenta estabilizar su propia moneda.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesLos economistas advirtieron que Erdogan recurrió a tácticas costosas a corto plazo para aislar a los votantes de la inflación y evitar que el valor de la moneda nacional se hundiera aún más. Pero no puede seguir haciendo eso para siempre.Las reservas de divisas extranjeras han disminuido drásticamente, lo que significa que el país podría perder su capacidad para pagarles a los acreedores extranjeros. Y, debido a que gran parte de ese dinero se ha gastado para mantener estable la moneda turca, su valor podría desplomarse cuando se detenga ese gasto.Erdogan no dio indicios durante su campaña de que planeara modificar sus políticas económicas, a pesar de una inflación obstinadamente alta de dos dígitos que, según los economistas, se ha visto exacerbada por su insistencia en bajar las tasas de interés en lugar de incrementarlas para combatir la inflación, como recomienda la economía ortodoxa.Es por eso que, independientemente de las medidas que a Erdogan le gustaría priorizar al comienzo de su nuevo mandato, es probable que los riesgos de una crisis monetaria o una recesión exijan su atención.Gulsin Harman More

  • in

    Erdogan’s Victory in Turkey’s Presidential Election: Key Takeaways

    Crises including earthquakes and inflation did not stop the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The vote was seen as free but not fair, as he used his power to tilt the playing field.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s re-election grants him five more years to deepen his conservative imprint on Turkish society and to realize his ambition of increasing the country’s economic and geopolitical power.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council named Mr. Erdogan the victor after a runoff election on Sunday. He won 52.1 percent of the vote against the opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who had 47.9 percent with almost all votes counted, the council said.The election was closely followed by Turkey’s NATO allies, including the United States, who have often seen Mr. Erdogan as a frustrating partner because of his anti-Western rhetoric and close ties with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, which have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.Mr. Erdogan has given no indication that he plans to change his policies abroad, where he has sought to use Turkey’s place at the juncture of Europe, Asia and the Middle East to expand its influence, or at home, where has consolidated power in his hands and responded to an inflation crisis with unconventional measures that economists said exacerbated the problem.Challenging him in the election was a newly united opposition that billed the election as a make-it-or-break-it moment for Turkish democracy. The opposition’s candidate, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, ran as the anti-Erdogan, vowing to restore civil freedoms and improve ties with the West. He billed himself as more in touch with common people’s struggles.Here are some key takeaways:Crises damaged but did not break Erdogan.The opposition candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, on the right of this banner in Istanbul, presented himself as an anti-Erdogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThis was the most challenging election of Mr. Erdogan’s 20 years as Turkey’s most prominent politician, as prime minister since 2003 and as president since 2014. Before the initial vote, most polls suggested a tight race with Mr. Kilicdaroglu in the lead.Analysts cited several reasons Mr. Erdogan might struggle. Anger at a painful cost-of-living crisis turned some voters against him. Powerful earthquakes in February killed more than 50,000 people and damaged hundreds of buildings in southern Turkey. Many quake survivors complained about the government’s slow initial response while the destruction raised questions about whether Mr. Erdogan’s haste to develop the country had encouraged unsafe construction.Turkey’s historically fractious opposition set aside its differences to come together behind Mr. Kilicdaroglu and argued that change was needed to stop the country’s slide toward one-man rule.But Mr. Erdogan prevailed, thanks to fervent support from a significant portion of the population and his skills as a campaigner. Religiously conservative Turks who appreciate his expanding the role of Islam in public life stood by him, and even many of those angry about inflation said they did not have faith that the opposition could govern any better.The earthquake didn’t affect the election much.Lining up for supply distribution after earthquakes hit the city of Antakya, Turkey, in February. Turnout in quake-hit areas was surprisingly high.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan came to power 20 years ago amid anger at the government’s disastrous response to an earthquake near Istanbul in 1999 that killed more than 17,000 people. So many expected this year’s quake to hurt his standing as well.But there few indications that it did.Mr. Erdogan came out ahead in eight of the 11 provinces affected by February’s earthquake. His governing Justice and Development Party and its political allies fared even better, winning a majority of votes in the simultaneous parliamentary elections in all but one of the quake-stricken provinces.Participation in the earthquake zone was also high, despite worries that many voters displaced by the destruction would struggle to return home to cast their ballots as is required. Although participation in the 11 quake-affected provinces was lower than the 88.9 percent of eligible voters who cast ballots nationally, in none of those provinces did turnout dip below 80 percent.Interviews with quake survivors indicated many reasons that the disaster had not changed their political outlook. Some described the quake as an act of God that any government would have struggled to respond to. Others whose homes were destroyed said they had more faith in Mr. Erdogan to rebuild the affected areas than they had in his challenger.Terrorism warnings resonated with voters.Supporters of Mr. Erdogan in Istanbul on Sunday. He made opposition to Kurdish militants a key campaign issue. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan undermined the opposition by portraying its leaders as weak and incompetent, but one line of attack proved to be especially potent: accusations that they would be soft on terrorism.The president repeatedly made this argument to voters, based on the opposition’s having received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. The government often accuses that party of collaboration with militants from Turkey’s Kurdish minority who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades, seeking autonomy.Mr. Erdogan even went so far as to air videos at his rallies that had been doctored to show militant leaders singing along to Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s campaign song. Many voters believed him, saying in interviews that they did not trust the opposition to keep the country safe.The vote was free but not fair.Counting ballots in Istanbul on Sunday. The opposition challenger did not contest the count, but said the election overall was unfair.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesInternational observers reported no large-scale problems with the process of collecting and counting votes during the first round, deeming the process free.But they noted the tremendous advantages Mr. Erdogan had before voting began, including his ability to unleash billions of dollars in state spending to try to offset the negative effects of inflation and other economic strains and the abundant, positive media coverage he received from the state-funded broadcaster.Late on Sunday, Mr. Mr. Kilicdaroglu did not contest the vote count, but told his supporters that the overall election had been “one of the most unfair election processes in recent years.”Many in the political opposition fear that the closeness of the race will lead Mr. Erdogan to crack down on his political opponents more aggressively to prevent such a stiff challenge in the future.Mr. Erdogan must now confront economic problems.Turkey has drawn on its foreign currency reserves while trying to stabilize its own currency.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesEconomists warn that Mr. Erdogan resorted to expensive short-term tactics to insulate voters from inflation and prevent the value of the national currency from sinking further. But he can’t keep it up forever.Turkey’s foreign currency reserves have declined steeply, meaning the country could lose its ability to pay back foreign creditors. And because much of that money has been spent to keep the currency stable, its value could dive once that spending stops.Mr. Erdogan gave no indication during his campaign that he planned to modify his economic policies, despite stubbornly high, double-digit inflation that economists say has been exacerbated by his insistence on lowering interest rates instead of raising them to combat inflation, as orthodox economics recommends.So regardless of what moves Mr. Erdogan would like to prioritize at the start of his new term, the risks of a currency crisis or recession are likely to demand his attention.Gulsin Harman More

  • in

    Elección en Turquía: Erdogan podría volver a ganar

    A pesar de una economía en dificultades, los terremotos de febrero y la deriva de Turquía hacia un gobierno unipersonal, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se situó en cabeza antes de la segunda vuelta.ANKARA, Turquía — El aumento de la inflación empobreció a su pueblo. Su gobierno fue acusado de negligencia en su respuesta a los catastróficos terremotos en los que murieron más de 50.000 personas hace solo tres meses. Y se enfrentaba a una oposición recientemente unificada que prometía abandonar su tendencia constante hacia el gobierno unipersonal.A pesar de todo eso, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se impuso a su principal rival en las elecciones turcas, según los resultados oficiales publicados el lunes. Aunque no alcanzó la mayoría absoluta, por lo que el país celebrará una segunda vuelta el 28 de mayo, hay indicios claros de que Erdogan volverá a ganar las elecciones.“Para Erdogan, este es su gran final”, dijo Mehmet Ali Kulat, un destacado encuestador turco que había previsto una victoria más contundente de la oposición.Con casi todas las papeletas escrutadas el lunes, los resultados preliminares oficiales le daban a Erdogan el 49,5 por ciento de los votos frente al 44,9 por ciento de Kemal Kilicdaroglu, su principal rival y líder de la oposición. Un tercer candidato, Sinan Ogan, obtuvo el 5,2 por ciento, y sus partidarios de derecha tienen más probabilidades de votar por Erdogan en la segunda vuelta, según los analistas. Por último, el partido de Erdogan y sus aliados preservaron su mayoría dominante en la votación parlamentaria, lo que probablemente aumenta sus posibilidades de ser reelegido.Pero el hecho de que Erdogan no haya podido obtener más del 50 por ciento de los votos —incluso después de haber utilizado muchos de los recursos del poder para inclinar la balanza de las elecciones a su favor— indica que algunos votantes se han cansado de su gestión financiera y de la drástica consolidación del poder en sus manos.Recuento de votos en Estambul, el domingoSergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesMuchos medios de comunicación turcos son propiedad de empresarios que apoyan a Erdogan, lo que le ha garantizado un flujo constante de cobertura positiva y poca atención a las acusaciones de corrupción o los errores de la gestión. El gobierno ha hecho que algunas organizaciones de noticias críticas tengan que cerrar, ha multado a otras por su cobertura y procesó a algunos periodistas. La organización Reporteros sin Fronteras clasifica a Turquía en el puesto 165 en cuanto a libertad de prensa, de los 180 países que califica.La oposición no reconoció oficialmente el liderazgo de Erdogan ni impugnó las cifras, pero afirmó que trabajará para ganar la segunda vuelta.“Nos levantaremos y ganaremos juntos estas elecciones”, escribió Kilicdaroglu en Twitter el lunes. “Al final solo será lo que diga nuestra nación”.En sus 20 años como líder político dominante de Turquía, primero como primer ministro y luego como presidente, Erdogan y su Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo han derrotado de manera regular a sus oponentes en las urnas. La última vez que Erdogan participó en las elecciones fue en 2018, y obtuvo el 52 por ciento de los votos en la primera vuelta, superando al más cercano de sus tres contrincantes por 22 puntos porcentuales. Esta vez le fue peor, lo que provocó la primera segunda vuelta presidencial en la historia de Turquía.El domingo, la participación electoral en todo el país fue de casi el 89 por ciento, lo que subraya la gran fe de los turcos en las elecciones.Erdogan enfrentó una considerable resistencia antes de la votación.Desde 2018, Turquía ha estado luchando con una moneda que se hunde y una dolorosa inflación que superó el 80 por ciento anual el año pasado y en abril se situó en el 44 por ciento.Las cifras publicadas en un local de cambio de divisas en Estambul reflejan la fuerte caída de la lira turca, lo que ha disparado la inflación.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesSus oponentes se unieron en una coalición sin precedentes de seis partidos que respaldaron a Kilicdaroglu. A lo largo de la campaña, la oposición cortejó a los votantes prometiendo arreglar la economía, restablecer las libertades civiles y construir una sociedad más integradora, en marcado contraste con la retórica polarizante de Erdogan.Pero no fue suficiente.Los analistas describieron los resultados como el último ejemplo de las formidables habilidades de supervivencia de Erdogan.Kulat dijo que los terremotos del 6 de febrero ayudaron a Erdogan de forma inesperada. La vasta destrucción no solo dejó a un gran número de personas sin hogar, sino que presionó a las comunidades cercanas a la zona afectada al aumentar los precios de los alquileres. Esto aumentó el atractivo de las promesas electorales de Erdogan de construir nuevas viviendas en la zona afectada por el terremoto en el plazo de un año.“Los ciudadanos dijeron: ‘Si alguien puede construirme una casa, es Erdogan’”, dijo Kulat.Pero el mandatario también utilizó su poder para inclinar la campaña a su favor. Y como presidente en funciones en un sistema con pocos controles del poder presidencial, Erdogan utilizó de manera eficaz al Estado como parte de su campaña al repartir nuevos beneficios para los votantes usando los recursos de las arcas nacionales.Erdogan hizo campaña tachando a sus oponentes de incompetentes, diciendo que los apoya una conspiración occidental y que eran cómplices de terroristas. También buscó oportunidades para vincularse en la mente de los votantes con imágenes del creciente poderío e independencia turcos, aparcando un buque de guerra en el centro de Estambul para que lo visitaran las familias y convirtiéndose en el primer propietario de un coche eléctrico fabricado en Turquía.Rescatistas sobre los escombros dejados por los terremotos que mataron a decenas de miles de personas, en Kahramanmaras, Turquía, en febrero.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesTanto él como sus ministros lo presentan como el defensor de los turcos religiosos, avivando sus temores al decirles que la oposición pretendía arrebatarles sus nuevas libertades y ampliar los derechos de las personas homosexuales. Aunque Turquía es una sociedad predominantemente musulmana, se fundó como un Estado firmemente laico que mantenía fuera de la vida pública a la mayoría de los signos externos de la religión. Erdogan flexibilizó algunas de esas normas, incluida la prohibición de que las mujeres que ocupan cargos públicos usen pañuelos en la cabeza.Parece que estos temas han convencido a un número suficiente de votantes como para que Erdogan lidere la contienda.“La identificación política es muy ‘pegajosa’ y no se deshace fácilmente debido a nueva información o experiencia”, escribió en un correo electrónico Howard Eissenstat, profesor asociado de historia en la Universidad de St. Lawrence. “El énfasis de Erdogan en el nacionalismo, el terrorismo y los nefastos complots occidentales no es algo menor para muchos votantes: es el núcleo de su visión del mundo”.En contraste con lo que Erdogan podía ofrecer a los votantes, la oposición solo podía ofrecer promesas.Para conseguir su apoyo, Kilicdaroglu reunió a seis partidos que incluían a nacionalistas de derecha, laicos acérrimos e islamistas, lo que es visto como una hazaña. Pero muchos votantes se preguntaron cómo una coalición tan amplia podría mantenerse unida, y mucho menos dirigir el país.“A pesar de la frustración por la economía y los efectos de los terremotos, mucha gente no creía que una coalición de la oposición —especialmente una con divisiones ideológicas internas y luchas personales por el poder— pudiera gobernar con eficacia”, dijo Lisel Hintz, profesora adjunta de relaciones internacionales en la Escuela de Estudios Internacionales Avanzados de la Universidad Johns Hopkins.Según Hintz, el hecho de que Kilicdaroglu pertenezca a una minoría religiosa probablemente también haya desanimado a algunos votantes. Es aleví, miembro de una secta musulmana heterodoxa que es mal vista por algunos miembros de la mayoría musulmana suní de Turquía.“Es probable que algunos suníes no quieran votar por un aleví”, dijo Hintz.El principal aspirante de la oposición, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, tras votar el domingo en la capital, Ankara.Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAunque ningún votante entrevistado en las últimas semanas expresó abiertamente esos sentimientos, muchos expresaron su preocupación por otro grupo minoritario, criticando a la oposición por trabajar con el principal partido a favor de los kurdos de Turquía y comparando esa decisión con establecer una alianza con terroristas.Turquía ha librado una larga y mortal batalla contra los militantes kurdos que son considerados terroristas por el gobierno turco, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea. Además, las autoridades turcas suelen acusar a los políticos kurdos de cooperar con los militantes, y muchos de ellos han sido encarcelados, procesados o destituidos por esas acusaciones.Erdogan ha jugado con el temor sobre esos vínculos, y muchos votantes consideran que la oposición simpatiza con esa militancia.“Me preocupa que gane el otro bando y que eso sea malo para el país”, dijo Melike Kurt, recién licenciada, tras votar a Erdogan el domingo. En concreto, mencionó su preocupación porque se pusiera en libertad a personas encarceladas por cargos relacionados con el terrorismo.Como mujer devota que usa un pañuelo en la cabeza, también elogió a Erdogan por defender que las mujeres como ella pudieran vestir como quisieran, y le preocupaba que un gobierno de la oposición anulara esos derechos en nombre del laicismo estatal.“No puedo imaginarme en qué situación estaríamos si perdiéramos”, dijo Kurt, de 24 años. “Creo que nuestras libertades se verían limitadas si ganan, en lo que respecta a los pañuelos en la cabeza y otros temas”.Safak Timur More

  • in

    In Erdogan’s Turkey, a Building System Fatally Weakened by Corruption

    The building began convulsing at 4:17 a.m. Firat Yayla was awake in bed, scrolling through videos on his phone. His mother was asleep down the hall.The region along Turkey’s border with Syria was known for earthquakes, but this apartment complex was new, built to withstand disaster. It was called Guclu Bahce, or Mighty Garden. Mr. Yayla’s own cousin had helped build it. He and his business partner had boasted that the complex could withstand even the most powerful tremor.So, as the earth heaved for more than a minute, Mr. Yayla, 21, and his 62-year-old mother, Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, remained inside.At that very moment, though, Mr. Yayla’s cousin, the developer, was leaping for safety from a second-story balcony.Sohret Guclu, a retired schoolteacher, was asleep in her home in Antakya, Turkey, when the quake hit.via Firat YaylaWhat Mr. Yayla and his mother had not known was that the system to ensure that buildings were safely constructed to code had been tainted by money and politics. That system prioritized speed over rules and technical expertise.A New York Times investigation found that a developer won zoning approval for the project after donating more than $200,000 to a local soccer club, where the mayor is an honorary president. Then, when residents raised alarms that the blueprints did not match what had been built, they received no satisfying reply from the local government. The building inspector said that, even after the project had failed its inspection, the developers used political influence to get the doors open.The apartment complex, in the southern Turkish city of Antakya, was a concrete and stone representation of a patronage system that has flourished under President Recep Tayyip Erdogan as he has propelled a construction boom across Turkey for the past two decades.Undeterred by warnings that the breakneck development lacked sufficient engineering oversight, officials in the capital, Ankara, gave local politicians more power to issue construction licenses for large projects without scrutiny from independent professionals.Basic suggestions never took off — that civil engineers should have to pass a certification exam, for instance.Rescue workers at the site of the collapsed Guclu Bahce building. About 65 people died there.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThat building spree turned middle-class landowners like the Guclus, for whom the Guclu Bahce complex was named, into developers and landlords. Mr. Erdogan, who will stand for re-election on May 14, used construction as a vessel for economic growth and a symbol of Turkey’s progress. Local politicians from all parties benefited from the jobs, housing and off-the-books payments that commonly flowed from it all.Mr. Erdogan’s office referred questions to the environmental ministry, which did not respond to requests for comment.The Feb. 6 earthquake revealed the shaky foundation on which so much growth was built. More than 50,000 people died as buildings toppled, crumbled or pancaked. Guclu Bahce, the mighty earthquake-proof complex, was among them. An estimated 65 people died there.“So many died because they were told that the safest place was inside, and they should not try to leave during an earthquake,” said Fatma Oguz, whose sister died in the collapse.For the Guclu family, several of whom lived in the building, the collapse created a fatal rift. Survivors have turned on each other amid a lawsuit, a criminal investigation and a bitter search for answers:Were the buildings doomed to fall by nature of a powerful earthquake? Or did someone cut corners? Who can be held accountable in a system in which blueprints cannot be trusted and nobody agrees on whether the building passed inspection? The inspector says somebody forged his signature. It is unclear if the final project was up to code, and the developers cannot agree on who actually built anything.As the building shook in February, Mr. Yayla called out to his mother to stay in her room and get on the floor next to her bed. He did the same. They would ride this out safely.Then came a fierce thud, and the columns holding up the bedroom ceiling snapped.‘Money From Our Friends’Family members say the land, covered in fig trees, had been theirs for three generations.By 2015, buildings were popping up all around, a testament to a Turkish economy that had been growing about 7 percent a year.Mehmet Guclu, a young developer with a civil engineering degree, approached his relatives with a plan. Look around, he told them. Somebody’s going to develop this parcel. Better to keep it in the family, to be landlords, to make money.“He convinced us that he’d build the most magnificent project in our family name,” said Yusuf Guclu, another cousin who lived in the complex. He said that Mehmet had promised to protect against the earthquakes everyone in the region knew to expect.Mehmet Guclu, then in his 30s, was a charismatic striver with a luxe aesthetic, known for incorporating sleek finishes and expensive materials like marble. He had already built some of the tallest buildings in Antakya.The extended family had dreamed of exactly this opportunity for years.The complex was to be a centerpiece of the community — five towers, complete with luxury apartments, retail shops, a pool and a high-end gym.Mehmet’s career had taken off quickly, in part because of Turkey’s low barriers to entry for civil engineering graduates. Unlike in the United States and United Kingdom, graduates in Turkey do not need to pass certification exams or complete on-the-job training to become an engineer. Architectural trade groups have called for such requirements for years.The Guclu Bahce complex in May 2020, before residents moved in. The development attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians, some of whom bought multiple properties as investments.Google Maps“University educates you. It doesn’t train you,” said Mustafa Erdik, an earthquake engineering professor at Bogazici University in Istanbul. “We have to bring in professional engineering.”Getting a project started often hinges on unwritten rules that can be as important as technical expertise. In this part of southern Turkey, for example, contractors have known for years that a donation to the local soccer club can move a project along, said Hikmet Cincin, the former head of the soccer club. Antakya’s mayor at the time, Lutfu Savas, serves as the club’s honorary president.After discussions with that mayor, Mehmet Guclu gave the club more than half a million lira, more than $200,000 at the time, according to a person involved in the construction process who spoke on condition of anonymity because of an ongoing investigation.Mr. Savas denied profiting from Guclu Bahce’s construction and said the donation had not been tied to the project. “If we ask for money from our friends,” he said of gifts to the soccer club, “it’s for the benefit of everyone.”He called himself an honest politician in a corrupt system. He said developers commonly made payments to circumvent bureaucratic approvals. Most build whatever they want and assume it will be approved, he said. He blamed Mr. Erdogan and his political party for fostering this culture.But Mr. Savas, himself a former member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, was adamant that was not the case with Guclu Bahce.Mr. Savas says he has little memory of the particulars. What is clear is that the project rolled along in the following years, and the foundation was laid in summer 2017.But the earth in that part of Turkey is not ideal for building, particularly in an earthquake zone, said Serkan Koc, a member of the Union of Chambers of Turkish Engineers and Architects.“These areas shouldn’t have been turned into construction zones,” he said. Soft soil, for example, will amplify an earthquake. Mr. Koc said Turkish environmental officials should have assessed the whole area before the building boom.“Although the ministry had the authority to inspect, they didn’t” he said. The environmental ministry did not respond to requests for comment.As Mr. Guclu’s new project moved forward, the only limitations seemed to be financial. Soon after the foundation was poured, his money dried up. He turned to a prominent developer, Servet Altas, to help see it through.Mr. Altas became the public face of the project. His initials, in red and blue, would later adorn the low wall ringing the complex.Sales PitchSohret Guclu had been eager for a steady income to supplement her modest state pension. So she swapped her land deeds for ownership of six apartments and a retail storefront.She had raised two boys in an old, crumbling apartment building. Her new home was to be a four-bedroom unit with an airy living room and kitchen — one of the largest in the complex.Guclu Bahce’s apartments were among the region’s most expensive, costing as much as $160,000. But Mr. Altas promised upscale amenities and unparalleled safety, former residents said.“If there were an earthquake right now, I would run inside,” Mr. Altas repeatedly said, recalled Ertugrul Sahbaz, a building manager for the complex.Guclu Bahce attracted doctors, teachers, judges and politicians. Songul Oguz and her husband bought a $117,000 apartment after a sales agent said that the building’s strong foundation and reinforced steel bars could withstand even a 10-magnitude earthquake, Ms. Oguz’s sister recalled. It would take 10 days for Ms. Oguz’s body to be pulled from the wreckage.Mr. Altas, wearing a plaid jacket and bow tie, joined government officials for a jubilant opening ceremony in late 2019. They smiled and posed with a pair of 10-foot gold scissors that were later recorded by Guinness World Records as the world’s largest. Mr. Altas thanked Mr. Guclu for his engineering work and his own son for working as one of the architects.Servet Altas, center, at a ribbon-cutting ceremony during the opening of the apartment complex.Mehmet Bayrak/Hatay-IhaFew have argued that these developers knowingly put people in deadly buildings. Mr. Guclu’s own family lived there, after all, as did Mr. Altas’s son. Turkey deemed Mr. Guclu a qualified engineer, and the local government — measured by the number of officials at the grand opening — supported the project.But the chest-thumping and fanfare were premature. The buildings failed a final inspection, according to court testimony. The nature of the violations is murky, but Ismail Ozturk, a building inspector, testified this year that his company had raised concerns with the local authorities.Mr. Ozturk testified that the contractors had leveraged “close connections” in the city government to overcome the failed inspection. The city mayor at the time, Ismail Kimyeci, who belongs to Mr. Erdogan’s party, denied any special treatment. He said the government’s final approval had been a formality. “The inspection firm plays the most important role here,” Mr. Kimyeci said.Mr. Ozturk’s signature does appear on a certification document. Through his lawyer, he said it had been forged.In a functioning system, there would be no ambiguity about who had approved a project. But Turkey’s system is built on ambiguity. The Erdogan government has, for decades, weakened independent, expert construction oversight and fought proposals to toughen standards.Turkey’s chamber of civil engineers, for example, has argued for years that experienced engineers are stretched too thin to adequately supervise construction projects. The group has called for every project to get a dedicated engineer. That idea, which could have slowed down construction, went nowhere. The Erdogan government sued the group in 2015, blocking it from issuing its own, stricter certifications for engineers.Lawmakers also privatized the building inspection process, sidelining Turkey’s engineering and architectural union. And while the government in 2019 eliminated a rule allowing contractors to pick their inspectors, mayors still hold power to push past potential issues.Guclu Bahce’s opening was delayed. Discrepancies existed between the blueprints and what was built, Mr. Ozturk said in testimony after the earthquake. Some former residents, too, said that they had picked up on such differences and sent a letter to the city raising concerns.One resident said the dispute centered on the very building in which Mr. Yayla slept the night of the earthquake — the first to collapse. The resident said that the building had featured an extra floor, a penthouse with a terrace that had not appeared in the plans.The resident, who spoke on condition of anonymity to avoid being dragged into a criminal and civil dispute, said he had helped broker a meeting between Mr. Altas and the city’s current mayor, Izzettin Yilmaz, to find a solution.Mr. Yilmaz, a member of Mr. Erdogan’s party, acknowledged in an interview that he had met with Mr. Altas. But he said the purpose was to tell the contractor that he was not interested in taking bribes. Gossip was swirling, he said, and he wanted to make things clear: “I told him: ‘No one requested a payment from you.’”Through his lawyer, though, Mr. Altas, denied meeting with the mayor. What’s more, Mr. Altas — who took credit at the opening ceremony for building the complex — now denies involvement with the construction or the planning. That was Mehmet Guclu’s responsibility, he said.Despite claiming no involvement, Mr. Altas said he was certain that the complex matched the blueprints.There is no indication in Mr. Ozturk’s testimony that anything was done to assess the design changes. Residents said the city promised to investigate, but they never heard back.Whether this discrepancy played any role in Guclu Bahce’s collapse and whether the inspection was adequate are among many questions being asked in the government’s criminal investigation and a family lawsuit.But the city ultimately awarded occupancy permits and residents finally moved into their apartments in 2021. Guclu Bahce sprang to life, with a health club, a home goods store and a chicken shop.For almost two years, nobody looked back or gave further thought to the construction process.Cries in the DarknessLying on the floor next to his bed, Firat Yayla thought immediately of his cousin’s assurances about the building’s sturdiness. His confidence lasted less than a minute, though, until he heard the sound of crumbling concrete.The wall next to him was caving in.As the 7.8-magnitude earthquake continued for about 90 seconds, the building fell sideways. Steel bars knifed out from the concrete, and he began slipping toward them.The lights went out, and Mr. Yayla was sure he was going to die.The next thing he registered was the sound of car alarms. His foot was wedged in a crack and he couldn’t move under the weight of a giant wall. He could barely breathe but managed to call into the darkness.“Mom!” he shouted. “Are you OK?”She called back. “Firat! Firat! Firat!”But her cries weakened, and then went quiet.“Please help me!” he shouted over and over.A resident helped free Mr. Yayla from the rubble. He survived without serious injuries. Mehmet Guclu survived his jump from the balcony with little more than an injured finger.Firat Yayla, 21, was rescued without serious injuries from the ruins of Guclu Bahce. His mother did not make it.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSohret Guclu died, along with more than five dozen other residents.Members of the Guclu family have sued the contractors and the inspection company, alleging construction flaws. Among those they accuse of wrongdoing is Mehmet Guclu, the cousin on whom they had pinned so many hopes.Sohret’s brother, Yusuf Guclu, said family members were angry at a system of back-scratching and favor-trading that had papered over potential problems.That system had worked in his family’s favor. The Guclus had lived the Turkish dream, converting their land into a cash cow thanks to a relative’s expertise and connections. Now, Yusuf’s sister was dead and his family was accepting donated clothing.“We’ve lost everything,” he said.Mr. Altas was arrested and jailed pending the outcome of the investigation. He has not been charged with a crime. Through his lawyer, he said he had only bankrolled the project.Mr. Ozturk, the inspector, has also been arrested but not charged. He denies signing off on the project.And, in a meeting with The Times, Mr. Guclu appeared shellshocked. He said he would consider speaking publicly about the building, the lawsuit and his family.But with a warrant out for his arrest, Mr. Guclu soon stopped returning messages.The last time he was in contact, he was working on a government construction project — part of Mr. Erdogan’s well-publicized plan to rebuild the region swiftly.The Guclu Bahce complex, which fell sideways, after the quake. Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesBeril Eski More