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      In Turkey, Erdogan Loyalists Can’t Imagine Anyone Else in Charge

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      Staunch supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan still like his tough-guy rhetoric and critiques of the West and see no viable alternative, though he has been accused of mismanaging the economy.Memis Akbulut, a cellphone salesman, listed the reasons that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan could count on his support in elections on Sunday that could drastically change the course of the country: He is charismatic, a world leader who has strengthened Turkey’s defenses and battled terrorism.And thanks to a regulation that Mr. Erdogan pushed in the months leading up to the vote, Mr. Akbulut will soon receive an early pension from the government — at age 46.“Everything is a 10,” he said recently in the central city of Kayseri. “I will vote for the president,” he added. “Is there anyone else?”The presidential and parliamentary elections are shaping up to be Mr. Erdogan’s toughest electoral fight during his two decades as Turkey’s predominate politician. A cost-of-living crisis has angered many voters, and his government stands accused of mismanaging the initial response to catastrophic earthquakes in February. Recent polls suggest a tight race — and, perhaps, even a defeat — for Mr. Erdogan.The political opposition has formed a broad coalition aimed at ousting him. Six parties are backing a joint presidential candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a former civil servant who has vowed to undo Mr. Erdogan’s legacy and restore Turkey’s democracy.Mr. Erdogan’s die-hard supporters, which pollsters estimate to be about one-third of the electorate, see no reason for Turkey to change course. They love the president’s nationalist bombast, religious outlook and vows to stand up for the country against an array of forces they view as threats, including terrorist organizations, gay rights activists, the United States and NATO.“Erdogan succeeded in building a close relationship with his electorate over the past 20 years,” said Akif Beki, a former adviser to the president who has broken with him and his governing party.Muslims praying in a mosque at the end of the holy fasting month of Ramadan in Kayseri last month. Mr. Erdogan has expanded the place for religious people in Turkey’s secular state.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesOthers have benefited in concrete ways, either politically or financially, from links to Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party, also known as the A.K.P., Mr. Beki said.“There is a new class that has arisen in his 20 years, and their interests are overlapping with Erdogan’s,” Mr. Beki said. “It is expecting them to act against their interests to expect them to go against the A.K.P. and Mr. Erdogan.”Mr. Erdogan’s critics note that Turkey’s gross domestic product began declining about a decade ago, and annual inflation, which surpassed 80 percent last year, has left many Turks feeling poorer. Most economists say Mr. Erdogan’s unorthodox financial policies have exacerbated the crisis.During his years in power, the president has consolidated his control over much of the state, tilting Turkey toward autocracy, while frustrating the United States and other NATO allies by maintaining a close relationship with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia after his invasion of Ukraine last year.Kayseri, in central Turkey, has long been a stronghold of Mr. Erdogan, voting for him and his party, often overwhelmingly so, in every election since 2002. Recent conversations with more than two dozen voters there showed that many still admire his leadership while others simply can’t imagine anyone else in charge.When Mr. Erdogan appeared on the national scene as a young, dynamic prime minister in 2003, he and his party promised competent governance, reliable services and economic growth.And for many years, they delivered it.Turks’ incomes rose as their cities became cleaner and better organized. Between 2003 and 2013, the national economy grew threefold, new hospitals, airports and highways were built around the country, and voters rewarded Mr. Erdogan at the ballot box, electing him president in 2014 and 2018.Kayseri has voted for Mr. Erdogan and his party in every election since 2002.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesKayseri, an industrial city of 1.4 million people in the shadow of a snow-capped peak, benefited during the Erdogan era, developing into an attractive city, with subway and tram lines, universities and factories that produce everything from shipping containers to furniture — much of it for export.Sevda Ak, an Erdogan supporter, acknowledged that the high inflation had harmed her family’s purchasing power. But she was counting on Mr. Erdogan to fix it.“If we shop for one child, we can’t shop for the other,” said Ms. Ak, 38 and a mother of three. “But it is still Erdogan who can solve it.”Her sister, Ayse Ozer, 32, credited Mr. Erdogan with developing the country but said he should crack down on merchants she accused of price gouging.Extremely high inflation, which surpassed 80 percent last year, has left many Turks feeling poorer.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan’s critics, on the other hand, accuse him of weakening Turkey’s democracy. And many in the West see him as problematic partner, a leader of a NATO country who snarled the alliance’s plans to expand after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Turkey waited many months to accept Finland into the alliance, but has still refused to admit Sweden.Mr. Erdogan’s most loyal followers, however, see those actions as signs of strength.“He doesn’t bow to anyone,” said Mustafa Akel, 48, a laborer in a door factory. “He built ships. He built drones. If he leaves, the one who will replace him is going to work to fill his own pockets.”He acknowledged that Mr. Erdogan had profited, too, during his time in power. But no matter.“I don’t think anyone else can rule this country,” he said.Nor did many voters in Kayseri fault Mr. Erdogan’s government for its initially slow response to the earthquakes on Feb. 6 that killed more than 50,000 people in southern Turkey. The high death toll raised questions about whether his emphasis on new construction ignored regulations designed to make buildings safe.“They did their best and they are still doing it,” said Rukiye Yozgat, 35.Rubble in Kahramanmaras, Turkey, after earthquakes on Feb. 6 killed more than 50,000 people.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMs. Yozgat also praised Mr. Erdogan for granting more rights to religious women like her, recalling that when she had started university in 2009, she had been barred from wearing a head scarf on campus.Although a predominately Muslim country, Turkey was founded in 1923 as a secular republic that sought to keep religion out of public life by, for example, barring women in government jobs from wearing head scarves. Mr. Erdogan has branded himself as the defender of the devout and expanded the role of religion in public life, pushing to expand Islamic education and loosening rules like the head scarf ban, which has won him the support of many religious voters.In the months leading up to the vote, Mr. Erdogan has also tapped the power of his office to appeal to voters and mitigate the effects of inflation by raising the minimum wage, boosting civil servants’ salaries and changing retirement regulations to allow millions of workers to receive early pensions.And in recent weeks, he has invoked national pride in ways that appeal to many Turks.He had a new, Turkish-built warship, the TCG Anadolu, dock in central Istanbul, where voters could walk aboard. He became the first owner of the first Turkish-built electric car. Via video link, he welcomed the first fuel delivery to a Russian-built nuclear power plant near the Mediterranean. He announced the start of production of Turkish natural gas in the Black Sea and promised free shipments to Turkish homes.Few voters in Kayseri seemed impressed with the opposition, and many doubted its six parties could work together effectively.Askin Genc, a parliamentary candidate for the opposition Republican People’s Party, said he expected the economy to give the opposition an opening.“The cost of living will have an effect at the ballot box,” he said.A political rally in central Kayseri last month. About six million young Turks will be able to vote for the first time, and analysts say Mr. Erdogan has struggled to entice them.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe opposition was also hoping to attract young voters, he said. About six million young Turks, out of 60.6 million eligible voters, will be able to vote for the first time, and analysts say Mr. Erdogan has struggled to entice them.Many voters expressed frustration with Mr. Erdogan’s stewardship of the economy, but few said they would switch to the opposition because of it.Ali Durdu, who was shopping with his family at an outdoor market, said he had long voted for Mr. Erdogan but was mad about high prices and would sit out this election. His wife, Merve, was also mad at Mr. Erdogan, but would vote for him anyway.“Erdogan has his mistakes,” she said. “But he’s the best of the worst.”An election poster of Mr. Erdogan in Kayseri. He has tapped the power of his office to appeal to voters and mitigate the effects of inflation.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times More

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      Ahead of Elections, Turkish Opposition Leader Takes on Erdogan’s Legacy

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      Ahead of next month’s elections, Kemal Kilicdaroglu has pledged to undo President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s legacy with a focus on tackling inflation and strengthening democracy.ISTANBUL — The main opposition candidate aiming to unseat President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in elections next month has pledged to undo the legacy of the longtime Turkish leader and focus on strengthening democracy, easing a cost of living crisis and battling corruption.The candidate, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, is aiming to attract voters who may have tired of the president’s bombastic rhetoric and tough-guy persona, campaigning not just as an anti-Erdogan, but also as his polar opposite: a calm everyman who says he plans to retire after a single five-year term.While Mr. Erdogan, 69, thrives in settings that showcase his power and put him among other world leaders, Mr. Kilicdaroglu, 74, addresses voters from his modest kitchen with a glass of tea at his elbow and dish towels hanging from the oven behind him.“Our democracy, economy, judicial system and freedoms are under heavy threat from Erdogan,” the former civil servant said in a recent kitchen campaign video. “I will put the state on its feet again and heal the wounds, and I will give back the joy of life to the people.”The presidential and parliamentary elections set for May 14 could drastically reshape Turkey, one of the world’s 20 largest economies and a NATO ally of the United States, not least because opinion polls suggest Mr. Erdogan is more vulnerable at the ballot box than at any other time in his 20 years as Turkey’s predominate politician.Chronic inflation that many economists attribute to his financial management stands at 50 percent and has eroded family budgets, angering voters. Devastating earthquakes in February, which killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey, sparked anger at the slow response and raised questions about whether the government’s failure to curb lax building practices increased the death toll.Rescue workers carried the body of a resident from a collapsed building in Antakya in February. Earthquakes that struck on Feb. 6 killed more than 50,000 people in Turkey.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan’s years at the helm have made him the face of Turkish foreign policy, with supporters saying he has boosted Turkey’s global stature and critics accusing him of over-personalizing foreign relations, weakening the diplomatic corps. He has maintained ties with Ukraine while meeting with President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, despite the war between them. He has used Turkey’s veto to snarl the expansion of NATO, making allies question his loyalties.Mr. Kilicdaroglu has promised to to run the country differently, and is betting that many Turks are ready for a change.But first, he must face Mr. Erdogan, a deft campaigner who has tightened his control of the state and can marshal its resources for his campaign.“Kilicdaroglu is the antithesis of Erdogan,” said Asli Aydintasbas, a Turkey scholar at the Brookings Institution. “To Erdogan’s virile political aggression, he is a soft-spoken gentleman. In terms of his platform, he is not just a democrat, but is promising to be a uniter.”Recent opinion polls suggest a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. Two other candidates are also running. One is not expected to get many votes. The other is a former member of Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s party who could siphon away opposition votes, denying Mr. Kilicdaroglu a majority in the first round and forcing a runoff with Mr. Erdogan on May 28, according to some projections.Mr. Erdogan is seeking his third five-year term. Mr. Kilicdaroglu has promised to retire after a single term so he can spend time with his grandchildren.Since 2010, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has been the leader of the Republican People’s Party, or C.H.P., the largest opposition party, which has been regularly trounced at the ballot box by Mr. Erdogan and his ruling Justice and Development Party.A meeting of the Republican People’s Party, or C.H.P., in December, with a banner with images of Mr. Kilicdaroglu, right, and Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, the founder of the modern Turkish state.Erdem Sahin/EPA, via ShutterstockIn 2009, Mr. Kilicdaroglu lost the race for mayor of Istanbul, Turkey’s largest city and economic engine. His party’s candidates also lost in Istanbul in 2014 and in presidential races against Mr. Erdogan in 2014 and 2018.The C.H.P. has failed to significantly increase its seats in Parliament in four elections since 2011 and twice failed to block referendums that expanded Mr. Erdogan’s powers.Mr. Erdogan took aim at Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s record before nationwide municipal elections in 2019.“You could not even herd a sheep,” he said, rhetorically addressing Mr. Kilicdaroglu. “You lost nine elections. Now you will lose the 10th.”Opposition supporters counter that the 2019 elections provide a template for victory because the opposition defeated Mr. Erdogan’s candidates in a number of cities, including Turkey’s two largest, Ankara, the capital, and Istanbul, where Mr. Erdogan launched his own political career as mayor in the 1990s.Offering perhaps another glimpse at the future, the government’s electoral commission voided the 2019 results in Istanbul, alleging irregularities and calling for a redo. The opposition won that, too.Mr. Kilicdaroglu rarely attacks Mr. Erdogan by name to avoid galvanizing the president’s loyalists. But after the devastating earthquakes in southern Turkey on Feb. 6, he accused Mr. Erdogan of pursuing policies that left the country vulnerable to such disasters. Construction has played a large role in economic policies during Mr. Erdogan’s tenure, raising questions about whether safety standards were ignored amid a push for economic growth.“There is one person fully responsible for all of this: Erdogan,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu said during a visit to the quake zone. “Whenever Erdogan brings this country down, he makes calls for unity. Spare me.”He often accuses Mr. Erdogan’s government of misusing state funds and has vowed to investigate accusations of sweetheart deals with companies close to the president.The vote on May 14 will determine if Mr. Erdogan, shown in March, who has dominated the country’s politics for 20 years, will remain in power.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIf he wins, he has said, he will return the country to a parliamentary system, undoing constitutional changes that allowed Mr. Erdogan to expand his powers. He has vowed to restore the independence of the judiciary, the central bank and the foreign ministry, which he and other critics say have fallen under Mr. Erdogan’s control.Mr. Kilicdaroglu represents six opposition parties that have united against Mr. Erdogan, broadening his base. He also has the tacit support of Turkey’s largest Kurdish party, which could give him about an additional 10 percent of the electorate.Both Mr. Erdogan and Mr. Kilicdaroglu grew up poor, the first in a scrappy Istanbul neighborhood, the second in an isolated village in central Turkey.As a child, Mr. Kilicdaroglu wore the same pair of shoes for years, he has said. While studying economics in university in Ankara, he walked everywhere to save money on transport. He often writes his speeches on the backs of used sheets of paper.After university, he worked for nearly 30 years as a civil servant and ran Turkey’s social security administration.Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s conspicuous financial modesty distinguishes him from Mr. Erdogan, who exudes a flashiness and had hundreds of millions of dollars spent on a new presidential palace that is larger than the White House, the Kremlin and Buckingham Palace.After retiring from the civil service, Mr. Kilicdaroglu won a seat in Parliament and caught the nation’s eye by confronting executives and officials with corruption allegations on live TV.In 2010, after a sex tape scandal forced his predecessor to resign, Mr. Kilicdaroglu became the head of the C.H.P., the party of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk, who founded Turkey after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire 100 years ago this year.C.H.P. campaign posters in Diyarbakir, Turkey, last month. Recent opinion polls suggest a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu. Sedat Suna/EPA, via ShutterstockIn 2017, at age 69, he protested the arrest of a fellow parliamentarian on what he dismissed as bogus espionage charges by walking more than 250 miles from Ankara to Istanbul in 23 days holding a sign that read “justice.” The march concluded with a large rally, but the momentum he generated to challenge what he called Mr. Erdogan’s weaponization of the judiciary quickly fizzled.Critics noted that Mr. Kilicdaroglu had voted for the law that had lifted legal immunity for members of Parliament, paving the way for the arrest of his colleague and other political figures.That same year, the results of a referendum that expanded Mr. Erdogan’s powers were marred by claims of fraud, but Mr. Kilicdaroglu did not mount a significant challenge.Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s often-tepid challenges to Mr. Erdogan’s government have raised questions about his ability to stand up to maneuvers he could face from Mr. Erdogan in the election.“We are in the hands of a bureaucrat who is overcautious most of the time,” said Soli Ozel, a lecturer in international relations at Kadir Has University in Istanbul.But for now, Mr. Kilicdaroglu is the only hope for Turks seeking a change from Mr. Erdogan.“This is not the election to open the gates of heaven,” Mr. Ozel said. “It is the election to close the gates of hell.”Safak Timur More

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      The Head Spinning Reality of Venezuela’s Economy

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      CARACAS, Venezuela — In the capital, a store sells Prada purses and a 110-inch television for $115,000. Not far away, a Ferrari dealership has opened, while a new restaurant allows well-off diners to enjoy a meal seated atop a giant crane overlooking the city.“When was the last time you did something for the first time?” the restaurant’s host boomed over a microphone to excited customers as they sang along to a Coldplay song.This is not Dubai or Tokyo, but Caracas, the capital of Venezuela, where a socialist revolution once promised equality and an end to the bourgeoisie.Venezuela’s economy imploded nearly a decade ago, prompting a huge outflow of migrants in one of worst crises in modern Latin American history. Now there are signs the country is settling into a new, disorienting normality, with everyday products easily available, poverty starting to lessen — and surprising pockets of wealth arising.That has left the socialist government of the authoritarian President Nicolás Maduro presiding over an improving economy as the opposition is struggling to unite and as the United States has scaled back oil sanctions that helped decimate the country’s finances.A television on sale for over $100,000 at a store in Caracas.A recently opened high-end restaurant in Caracas.Conditions remain dire for a huge portion of the population, and while the hyperinflation that crippled the economy has moderated, prices still triple annually, among the worst rates in the world.But with the government’s ease of restrictions on the use of U.S. dollars to address Venezuela’s economic collapse, business activity is returning to what was once the region’s wealthiest nation.As a result, Venezuela is increasingly a country of haves and have-nots, and one of the world’s most unequal societies, according to Encovi, a respected national poll by the Institute of Economic and Social Research of the Andrés Bello Catholic University in Caracas.Mr. Maduro has boasted that the economy grew by 15 percent last year over the previous year and that tax collections and exports also rose — though some economists stress that the economy’s growth is misleading because it followed years of huge declines.For the first time in seven years, poverty is decreasing: Half of the nation lives in poverty, down from 65 percent in 2021, according to the Encovi poll.A street vendor selling produce at $1 for each bagged vegetable in a busy downtown market in Caracas.After years of a roller-coaster economy, Venezuela has settled into a new, disorienting normality fueled by U.S. dollars.But the survey also found that the wealthiest Venezuelans were 70 times richer than the poorest, putting the country on par with some countries in Africa that have the highest rates of inequality in the world. And access to U.S. dollars is often limited to people with ties to the government or those involved in illicit businesses. A study last year by Transparency International, an anti-corruption watchdog, found that illegal businesses such as food, diesel, human and gas smuggling represented more than 20 percent of the Venezuelan economy.Though parts of Caracas bustle with residents who can afford a growing array of imported goods, one in three children across Venezuela was suffering from malnutrition as of May 2022, according to the National Academy of Medicine.Up to seven million Venezuelans have simply given up and abandoned their homeland since 2015, according to the United Nations.And despite the Maduro administration’s new slogan — “Venezuela is fixed” — many scrape by on the equivalent of only a few dollars a day, while public-sector employees have taken to the streets to protest low salaries.“I have to do back flips,” said María Rodríguez, 34, a medical lab analyst in Cumaná, a small city 250 miles east of the capital, explaining that, to pay for food and her daughter’s school tuition, she relied on two jobs, a side business selling beauty products and money from her relatives.Yrelys Jiménez, a preschool teacher in San Diego de los Altos, a half-hour drive south of Caracas, joked that her $10 monthly salary meant “food for today and hunger for tomorrow.” (The restaurant that allows diners to eat 150 feet above the ground charges $140 a meal.)Yrelys Jiménez with her son and daughter in their shared bedroom.Ms. Jiménez during the long walk home with her children from her job as a teacher.Despite such hardship, Mr. Maduro, whose administration did not respond to requests for comment, has focused on promoting the country’s rising economic indicators.“It seems that the sick person recovers, stops, walks and runs,” he said in a recent speech, comparing Venezuela with a suddenly cured hospital patient.The United States’ shifting strategy toward Venezuela has in part benefited his administration.In November, after the Maduro administration agreed to restart talks with the opposition, the Biden administration issued Chevron an extendable six-month license to pump oil in Venezuela. The deal stipulates that the profits be used to pay off debts owed to Chevron by the Venezuelan government.And while the United States still bans purchases from the state oil company, the country has increased black-market oil sales to China through Iran, energy experts said.A ceiling of floating sculptures in a luxury department store in Caracas.The Venezuelan government’s easing of restrictions on dollars has made it easier for some people to use money sent from abroad.Mr. Maduro is also emerging from isolation in Latin America as a regional shift to the left has led to a thaw in relations. Colombia and Brazil, both led by recently elected leftist leaders, have restored diplomatic relations. Colombia’s new president, Gustavo Petro, has been particularly warm to Mr. Maduro, meeting with him repeatedly and agreeing to a deal to import Venezuelan gas.With presidential elections planned next year and the opposition’s parallel government having recently disbanded, Mr. Maduro seems increasingly confident about his political future.Last year’s inflation rate of 234 percent ranks Venezuela second in the world, behind Sudan, but it pales in comparison to the hyperinflation seen in 2019, when the rate ballooned to 300,000 percent, according to the World Bank.With production and prices up, Venezuela has also started to see an increase in revenues from oil, its key export. The country’s production of nearly 700,000 barrels a day is higher than last year’s, though it was twice as high in 2018 and four times as high in 2013, said Francisco J. Monaldi, a Latin America energy policy fellow at Rice University.The Venezuelan government’s loosening of restrictions on dollars has made it easier for some people to use money sent from abroad. In many cases, no cash is actually exchanged. Venezuelans with means increasingly use digital apps like Zelle to use dollars in accounts outside the country to pay for goods and services.Friends celebrating a birthday at a trendy restaurant in Caracas.A survey found that the wealthiest Venezuelans were 70 times richer than the poorest residents.Still, U.S. officials call Venezuela’s economic picture somewhat illusory.“They were able to adjust to a lot of their problems after sanctions were implemented through dollarization,” according to Mark A. Wells, a deputy assistant secretary of state, “and so it starts to look over time that they are able to reach a status that basically helps the elites there, but the poor are still very, very poor.’’“So, it’s not that everything is more stable and better there,” Mr. Wells added.Mr. Maduro took office nearly 10 years ago and was last elected in 2018 in a vote that was widely considered a sham and was disavowed by much of the international community.The widespread belief that Mr. Maduro won fraudulently led the National Assembly to deem the presidency vacant and use a provision in the Constitution to name a new leader, Juan Guaidó, a former student leader. He was recognized by dozens of countries, including the United States, as Venezuela’s legitimate ruler.But as the figurehead of a parallel government that had oversight over frozen international financial accounts, he had no power within the country.Juan Guaidó led a parallel government that was recognized by the United States but held no power.Scavenging a large garbage bin at a street market in Caracas. Half of the nation lives in poverty, down from 65 percent in 2021.In December, the National Assembly ousted Mr. Guaidó and scrapped the interim government, a move some observers considered a boost to Mr. Maduro. A number of opposition figures have announced that they will run in a primary scheduled for October, even though many political analysts are skeptical that Mr. Maduro will allow a credible vote.“What Maduro does have today is an opposition that is disjointed and dispersed,” Mr. Guaidó said in an interview. “He also has a majority of the people against him. He continues being a dictator without popular support, a destroyed economy, which was his own fault, with professors, nurses, older people and workers protesting right now as we speak.”Even people like Eugenia Monsalves, who owns a medical supply company in Caracas and sends her two daughters to private schools, is frustrated with the country’s direction.Though she is upper middle class, she said she still had to watch how she spends her money.She goes out to eat occasionally and has visited some of the city’s new luxury stores, but without buying anything.“The vast majority of Venezuelans live in a complicated situation, very complicated,” she said.Ms. Monsalves believes the Maduro administration needs to go, but she worries that the best candidates were forced into exile or disqualified. The opposition, she said, has not coalesced around what it most needs: a leader who can energize the electorate.“That’s what I most want, like many other Venezuelans,” she said. “But the truth is that without a clear vision from the opposition, a clear platform from a single candidate, I think it’s going to be hard.”An upscale restaurant built inside a recently renovated hotel in Caracas.Nayrobis Rodríguez contributed reporting from Sucre, Venezuela, and More

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      Ferrari, Prada y hambre en Venezuela

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      CARACAS, Venezuela — En la capital, una tienda vende bolsos de Prada y un televisor de 110 pulgadas por 115.000 dólares. No muy lejos, un concesionario de Ferrari ha abierto, y un nuevo restaurante permite que los comensales acomodados disfruten de una comida sentados encima de una grúa gigantesca con vistas a la ciudad.“¿Cuándo fue la última vez que hicieron algo por primera vez?”, gritaba por el micrófono el anfitrión del restaurante a los clientes emocionados, mientras cantaban una canción de Coldplay.Esto no es Dubái ni Tokio, sino Caracas, la capital de Venezuela, donde una revolución socialista prometió igualdad y el fin de la burguesía.La economía de Venezuela colapsó hace casi una década, lo que provocó un enorme flujo de emigrantes en una de las peores crisis de la historia moderna de América Latina. Ahora hay indicios de que el país se está asentando en una nueva y rara normalidad, con productos cotidianos fácilmente disponibles, una pobreza que empieza a disminuir y asombrosas áreas de opulencia.Esto ha dejado al gobierno socialista del presidente autoritario de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, liderando un país en el que la economía está mejorando, la oposición batalla por unirse y Estados Unidos ha comenzado a reducir las sanciones petroleras que habían contribuído a obstaculizar las finanzas.Un televisor en venta a un precio superior a 100.000 dólares en una tienda de CaracasUn restaurante costoso que abrió recientemente en Caracas.Las condiciones siguen siendo terribles para una gran parte de la población, y aunque la hiperinflación que paralizó la economía se ha moderado, los precios siguen triplicándose anualmente, una de las peores tasas del mundo.Pero con la relajación por parte del gobierno de las restricciones al uso de dólares estadounidenses para hacer frente al colapso económico de Venezuela, la actividad empresarial está volviendo al que fue el país más rico de la región.Como resultado, Venezuela es cada vez más un país de ricos y pobres, y una de las sociedades más desiguales del mundo, según Encovi, una respetada encuesta nacional realizada por el Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales de la Universidad Católica Andrés Bello.Maduro se ha jactado de que la economía creció un 15 por ciento el año pasado, con respecto al anterior, y de que la recaudación de impuestos y las exportaciones también aumentaron, aunque algunos economistas subrayan que el crecimiento de la economía es engañoso porque se produjo tras años de enormes caídas.Por primera vez en siete años, la pobreza está disminuyendo: la mitad del país vive en la pobreza, frente al 65 por ciento en 2021, según la encuesta de Encovi.Un puesto vende verduras a un dólar por pieza en bolsa en un mercado ajetreado en el centro de Caracas.Luego de años de un subibaja económico, Venezuela se ha instalado en una nueva y desconcertante normalidad impulsada por los dólares estadounidenses.Pero la encuesta también reveló que los venezolanos más ricos eran 70 veces más ricos que los más pobres, lo que pone al país a la par con algunos países de África que tienen las tasas más altas de desigualdad en el mundo.Y el acceso a los dólares estadounidenses está limitado a personas con vínculos al gobierno o a quienes están involucrados en negocios ilícitos. Un estudio del año pasado de Transparencia Internacional, una organización anticorrupción, halló que negocios ilegales como el contrabando de comida, gasolina, personas y gas representaban más del 20 por ciento de la economía venezolana.Aunque algunas zonas de Caracas están llenas de residentes que pueden adquirir una creciente variedad de productos importados, uno de cada tres niños en toda Venezuela sufría desnutrición en mayo de 2022, según la Academia Nacional de Medicina.Alrededor de siete millones de personas se han dado por vencidas y han huido de su patria desde 2015, según las Naciones Unidas.A pesar del nuevo mensaje del gobierno de Maduro —“Venezuela se arregló”—, muchos sobreviven con el equivalente a solo unos pocos dólares al día, y los empleados del sector público han salido a la calle para protestar por los bajos salarios.“Tengo que hacer maromas”, dijo María Rodríguez, de 34 años, analista de laboratorio médico en Cumaná, una pequeña ciudad ubicada a 400 kilómetros al este de la capital. Rodríguez dice que, para pagar la comida y la matrícula escolar de su hija, dependía de dos trabajos, un negocio paralelo de venta de productos de belleza y el dinero de sus familiares.Yrelys Jiménez, profesora de preescolar con estudios universitarios en San Diego de los Altos, una localidad ubicada a media hora en coche al sur de Caracas, bromeaba diciendo que su salario mensual de 10 dólares significaba “pan para hoy y hambre para mañana”. (El restaurante que permite que los comensales coman a 45 metros sobre el suelo cobra 140 dólares por comida).Yrelys Jiménez con sus hijos en la habitación que comparten.Jiménez en su larga caminata a casa con sus hijos, al volver de su trabajo como maestra.A pesar de estas penurias, Maduro, cuyo gobierno no respondió a las solicitudes de comentarios, se ha centrado en promover los crecientes indicadores económicos del país.“Parece que el enfermo se recupera, se para, camina y corre”, dijo Maduro en un discurso reciente, comparando a Venezuela con un paciente de hospital que se cura repentinamente.El cambio de estrategia de Estados Unidos hacia Venezuela ha beneficiado en parte a su gobierno.En noviembre, después de que el gobierno de Maduro accediera a reanudar las conversaciones con la oposición, el gobierno de Biden concedió a Chevron una licencia de seis meses, prorrogable, para extraer petróleo en Venezuela. El acuerdo estipula que los beneficios se utilicen para pagar las deudas que el gobierno venezolano tiene con Chevron.Y, mientras Estados Unidos sigue prohibiendo las compras a la petrolera estatal, el país ha aumentado las ventas de petróleo en el mercado negro a China a través de Irán, según los expertos en energía.Esculturas flotantes en una tienda departamental de lujo en CaracasLa flexibilización de las restricciones sobre los dólares por parte del gobierno venezolano ha facilitado que algunas personas gasten el dinero enviado desde el extranjero.Maduro también está saliendo del aislamiento de sus vecinos latinoamericanos porque un giro regional hacia la izquierda ha provocado el deshielo de las relaciones. Colombia y Brasil, ambos dirigidos por líderes de izquierda recientemente elegidos, han restablecido las relaciones diplomáticas. El nuevo presidente de Colombia, Gustavo Petro, ha sido particularmente cálido con Maduro, reuniéndose con él en repetidas ocasiones y acordando un acuerdo para importar gas venezolano.Con las elecciones presidenciales previstas para el próximo año y la reciente disolución del gobierno paralelo de la oposición, Maduro parece cada vez más confiado en su futuro político.La tasa de inflación del año pasado, del 234 por ciento, sitúa a Venezuela en el segundo lugar del mundo, por detrás de Sudán, pero palidece en comparación con la hiperinflación registrada en 2019, cuando la tasa se disparó hasta el 300.000 por ciento, según el Banco Mundial.Con la producción y los precios del crudo al alza, Venezuela también ha empezado a experimentar un aumento de los ingresos procedentes del petróleo, su exportación clave. La producción del país, de casi 700.000 barriles al día, es superior a la del año pasado, aunque fue dos veces mayor en 2018 y cuatro veces mayor en 2013, dijo Francisco J. Monaldi, investigador de política energética de América Latina en la Universidad Rice.La flexibilización por parte del gobierno venezolano de las restricciones sobre los dólares ha facilitado que algunas personas puedan usar el dinero enviado desde el extranjero. En muchos casos, no se intercambia dinero en efectivo. Los venezolanos con medios utilizan cada vez más aplicaciones digitales como Zelle para usar dólares en cuentas del extranjero para pagar bienes y servicios.Amigas celebran un cumpleaños en un restaurante de moda en Caracas.Una encuesta halló que los venezolanos más adinerados eran 70 veces más ricos que los más pobres.Aun así, los funcionarios estadounidenses califican el panorama económico de Venezuela de ilusorio de alguna manera.“Fueron capaces de ajustarse a muchos de sus problemas tras la aplicación de las sanciones a través de la dolarización”, según Mark A. Wells, subsecretario de Estado adjunto, “por lo que con el tiempo empieza a parecer que son capaces de alcanzar un estatus que básicamente ayuda a las élites de allí, pero los pobres siguen siendo muy, muy pobres”.“Por lo tanto, no es que todo sea más estable y mejor ahí”, agregó Wells.Maduro asumió el cargo hace casi 10 años y fue reelegido en 2018 en unos comicios ampliamente considerados como una farsa y que fueron repudiados por gran parte de la comunidad internacional.La creencia generalizada de que Maduro ganó fraudulentamente llevó a la Asamblea Nacional elegida democráticamente a declarar vacante la presidencia en 2019 y utilizar una disposición de la Constitución para nombrar a un nuevo líder, Juan Guaidó, un exdirigente estudiantil. Fue reconocido por decenas de países, incluido Estados Unidos, como gobernante legítimo de Venezuela.Pero como figura principal de un gobierno paralelo que supervisaba las cuentas financieras internacionales congeladas, carecía de poder dentro del país.Juan Guaidó lideró un gobierno reconocido por Estados Unidos pero que no tenía poder dentro del país.Rebuscando en un gran contenedor de basura en un mercado callejero de Caracas. La mitad del país vive en la pobreza, menos que el 65 por ciento que vivía en esa situación en 2021.En diciembre, la Asamblea Nacional destituyó a Guaidó y eliminó el gobierno interino, una medida que algunos observadores consideraron como un impulso a Maduro. Varias figuras de la oposición han anunciado que se presentarán a las primarias previstas para finales de octubre, a pesar de que muchos analistas políticos son escépticos de que Maduro permita una votación creíble.“Lo que Maduro tiene hoy es una oposición desarticulada y dispersa”, dijo Guaidó en una entrevista telefónica. “También tiene a la mayoría del pueblo en su contra. Sigue siendo un dictador sin apoyo popular, una economía destruida por su propia culpa, con profesores, enfermeras, ancianos y trabajadores protestando ahora mismo mientras hablamos”.Incluso gente como Eugenia Monsalves, propietaria de una empresa de suministros médicos en Caracas y que envía a sus dos hijas a colegios privados, está frustrada con el rumbo del país.Aunque es de clase media alta, dice que tiene que cuidar cómo gasta su dinero.Sale a comer de vez en cuando y ha visitado algunas de las nuevas tiendas de lujo de la ciudad, pero sin comprar nada.“La gran mayoría de los venezolanos viven una situación complicada, muy complicada”, dijo.Monsalves cree que el gobierno de Maduro debe irse, pero le preocupa que los mejores candidatos hayan sido forzados al exilio o descalificados. La oposición, dijo, no se ha unido en torno a lo que más necesita: un líder que pueda energizar al electorado.“Eso es lo que yo más quisiera, así como muchísimos otros venezolanos”, dijo. “Pero la verdad es que de esta manera, y sin un panorama claro de la oposición, una propuesta clara de un candidato, lo veo muy difícil”.Un restaurante de lujo en un hotel recién remodelado en Caracas.Nayrobis Rodríguez colaboró con reporteo desde Sucre, Venezuela, y More

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      Nigerian Election 2023: What to Know

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      The presidential election this month in Africa’s most populous country is completely unpredictable. An unexpected third candidate with a huge youth following may upend decades of traditional politics.Nigerians go to the polls next week to choose a new president — one of the most important elections happening anywhere in the world this year. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, with about 220 million people, and what happens there reverberates across the continent and the globe.The Giant of Africa, as Nigeria is known, is at an inflection point. Nearly eight years of rule by an ailing president, Muhammadu Buhari — a military dictator turned reformed democrat — has seen the country lurch from one economic shock to the next. Over 60 percent of the people live in poverty, while security crises — including kidnapping, terrorism, militancy in oil-rich areas and clashes between herdsmen and farmers — have multiplied. Young, middle-class Nigerians are leaving the country in droves.Many Nigerians see the 2023 election as a chance to change course, and are planning to break with the two traditional parties to vote for a third candidate. Not since the rebirth of Nigeria’s democracy in 1999 has the country faced an election as nail-biting — and as wide open — as this one.When is the election?The vote is scheduled for Feb. 25, unless it is postponed, as it was in 2019, just five hours before polls were to open. The head of the Independent National Electoral Commission, or I.N.E.C., has warned that if the myriad security challenges Nigeria is facing are “not monitored and dealt with decisively,” elections could be postponed or canceled in many wards, causing a constitutional crisis.Who are the main candidates?There is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 70, who as the candidate of the governing All Progressives Congress has serious political machinery behind him. A canny, multimillionaire former governor of Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city, Mr. Tinubu is a Muslim from the southwest and boasts that he brought Mr. Buhari to power. His catchphrase, “Emi lo kan” — Yoruba for “It’s my turn” — speaks to his record as a kingmaker in Nigerian politics, but alienates many young voters.Officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission sort voter cards at a ward in Lagos, Nigeria, last month ahead of the presidential election in February.Pius Utomi Ekpei/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe former vice president and multimillionaire businessman Atiku Abubakar is the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, or P.D.P. Mr. Abubakar, 76, has run for the presidency five times since 1993, and this year could be his last shot. A Muslim from the north, he hopes to pick up far more votes there than he has in the past, now that he does not have to run against his old nemesis, Mr. Buhari, who had an ardent northern following.The surprise candidate is Peter Obi, 61. Hailed as a savior by a large chunk of Nigeria’s digitally savvy youth, Mr. Obi — a Christian and former governor from the southeast who has hitched his wagon to the lesser-known Labour Party — has thrown this election open. His fans — mostly young, southern Nigerians walloped by economic hardship, joblessness and insecurity — call themselves the Obidients.These are the three leading contenders among the 18 candidates in all. However, a fourth candidate worth mentioning is Rabiu Kwankwaso, 66. While unlikely to win the election, Mr. Kwankwaso, also a Muslim, could profoundly affect the result by splitting the vote in parts of Nigeria’s north, including the major state of Kano, where he has a huge base.Why does this election matter?Nearly 90 percent of Nigerians believe the country is going in the wrong direction, according to a recent survey by Afrobarometer — by far the worst perception it has ever recorded in Nigeria. For many, this election seems like a last-ditch chance to rescue their country.People waited at a bus stop with heavy traffic in Lagos last month. A recent survey found that nearly 90 percent of Nigerians believe the country is going in the wrong direction.Akintunde Akinleye/EPA, via ShutterstockA nation bursting with entrepreneurs and creative talent, Nigeria is held back by rampant insecurity, widespread unemployment, persistent corruption and a stagnating economy, which together mean that simply surviving can be a major struggle.What is different about this ballot?Recent changes in the voting system — using biometric data to ensure voters’ identities and sending results electronically rather than manually — were put in place to prevent the tampering and vote rigging that have undermined previous elections.There is no incumbent on the ballot, and for the first time in decades, there are major candidates from each of Nigeria’s three main ethnic groups: Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa-Fulani.All the usual, if unofficial, rules of Nigerian elections have been blown apart:1: It’s a battle between the two established parties. Mr. Obi broke this one when he lost the P.D.P. ticket to Mr. Abubakar but insisted on running anyway, and joined another party.2: The presidency is supposed to alternate between the north and the south, and so parties should field candidates accordingly. Mr. Buhari is a northerner, so Mr. Abubakar was expected to let a southerner helm his party. But he did not, and he may pay the price by losing the P.D.P.’s traditional southern strongholds.3: There should be a Muslim and a Christian on the ticket. Mr. Tinubu, a Muslim, bulldozed through this rule by picking a Muslim from the northeast as his running mate. That could cost him dearly in the south, too.Religious identity is a factor in Nigerian elections. Muslims celebrated the holiday of Eid al-Adha in Abuja, last year.Afolabi Sotunde/ReutersWhat does a candidate need to win?An absolute majority plus 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of the nation’s 36 states are essential for victory. If no candidate achieves this, the election will go to a runoff — which has never happened since democracy returned but which analysts now say is a distinct possibility.Turnout is usually extremely low — around 35 percent of registered voters voted in the last election, because of insecurity, logistical problems and apathy. But this year, according to I.N.E.C., more than 12 million new voters have registered, most of them young people. The election result may hinge on whether those new voters turn out or not.Results are expected two or three days after the election.What does polling show (or not show)?Several recent polls put Mr. Obi ahead of his rivals — some by a wide margin. But what many of these surveys have in common is that a large proportion of people polled refuse to say who they are voting for or say they are undecided.One poll by the data and intelligence company Stears tried to solve this problem by making an informed guess about which way the “silent voters” would cast their ballots based on their profiles and how they responded to other questions.Stears found that if there is a high turnout on election day, Mr. Obi would most likely win by a large margin. But if, as in 2019, few people show up at the polls, Mr. Tinubu would be by far the more likely winner.Above the Ibadan expressway in Lagos, a campaign poster shows presidential candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his running mate Kashim Shettima, of the governing All Progressives Congress party.Pius Utomi Ekpei/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images More

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      Anger Over Quake Response Challenges Erdogan Ahead of Election

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      A furor is building among some survivors over the government’s handling of the crisis. “I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said one. “I will never forgive them.”GAZIANTEP, Turkey — A powerful earthquake struck northwestern Turkey in 1999, killing more than 17,000 people, exposing government incompetence and fueling an economic crisis. Amid the turmoil, a young, charismatic politician rode a wave of public anger to become prime minister in 2003.That politician was Recep Tayyip Erdogan.Now, as president, Mr. Erdogan faces challenges similar to those that brought down his predecessors — posing what is perhaps the greatest threat of his two decades in power to his political future.The deadliest earthquake to strike Turkey in almost a century killed at least 20,000 people this past week, with the bodies of countless others still buried in the rubble. It hit after a year of persistently high inflation that has impoverished Turkish families, leaving many with scarce resources to bounce back.The quake’s aftermath has highlighted how much Mr. Erdogan has reshaped the Turkish state, analysts said. Critics accuse him of pushing the country toward autocracy by weakening civil rights and eroding the independence of state institutions, like the Foreign Ministry and the central bank. And in a series of moves aimed at undercutting his rivals and centralizing control, he has restricted institutions like the army that could have helped with the earthquake response while stocking others with loyalists.Mr. Erdogan acknowledged on Friday that his government’s initial response to the disaster had been slow, and anger was building among some survivors, a sentiment that could hamper his bid to remain in power in elections expected on May 14.“I have been voting for this government for 20 years, and I’m telling everyone about my anger,” said Mikail Gul, 53, who lost five family members in a building collapse. “I will never forgive them.”Residents searched for their relatives in a collapsed building in Kahramanmaras, near the epicenter of the quake, on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan assessed the earthquake damage in Kahramanmaras on Wednesday.Adem Altan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe president, who faced harsh criticism in 2021 over his government’s failure to control disastrous wildfires, has long portrayed himself as a leader in touch with the common citizen. He visited communities hit hard by the quake in recent days. Dressed in black, his face grim, he visited the wounded and comforted people who had lost their homes and emphasized the magnitude of the crisis.“We are face to face with one of the greatest disasters in our history,” he said on Friday during a visit to Adiyaman Province. “It is a reality that we could not intervene as fast as we wished.”The 7.8 magnitude earthquake — the most powerful in Turkey in decades — and hundreds of aftershocks toppled buildings along a 250-mile-long swath in the south, destroying thousands of buildings and causing billions of dollars in damage. Across the border in Syria, nearly 4,000 dead have been counted, a toll that is expected to rise significantly.“This is the largest-scale disaster that Turkey has to manage, and, inevitably, this will create a backlash against the government,” said Sinan Ulgen, the director of Edam, an Istanbul-based think tank. “But much will depend on how effectively it can address the needs of the affected population.”A man mourning the death of his father in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesMany residents of the disaster zone have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying that in some areas, the state was nowhere to be seen during the initial aftermath.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesThe Turkish government has begun an extensive aid operation, dispatching 141,000 aid and rescue workers to search for the dead and wounded, to distribute food, blankets and diapers and to erect tents for the tens of thousands of homeless, many of them sleeping in cars to avoid the subzero winter chill.Deadly Quake in Turkey and SyriaA 7.8-magnitude earthquake on Feb. 6, with its epicenter in Gaziantep, Turkey, has become one of the deadliest natural disasters of the century.A Devastating Event: The quake, one of the deadliest since 2000, rippled through neighboring countries; an area along the Syrian-Turkish border was hit particularly hard.From the Scene: Thousands of people have been killed, and dozens of cities have been gutted. Here is how witnesses described the disaster.A Desperate Search: When buildings fell in Antakya, Turkey, families poured in from all over to help. Videos capture the dig for survivors.Syrian Refugees: Millions of people fled the war in Syria for the safety of neighboring Turkey. Now, those killed in the quake are being returned home.Nevertheless, many survivors have expressed frustration with the government’s response, saying the state was nowhere to be found during the initial aftermath, leaving residents alone to find shelter and free trapped loved ones from collapsed buildings.The scarcity of trained rescue squads and heavy machinery during the critical first days most likely increased the death toll because many people who could have been saved were not.When government agencies arrived, residents said, their equipment seemed insufficient and they failed to coordinate the efforts of volunteers who were already struggling to help survivors.For two days after the quake, Mr. Gul said his family lacked food and water and felt helpless amid the destruction.“The house next to us collapsed and there was a girl inside saying, ‘Save me! save me!’” he said.The girl was saved, but Mr. Gul and his relatives had to dig out their five dead family members, he said.He had worked in Germany for 20 years, funneling his savings into 10 apartments in the city of Kahramanmaras, near the quake’s epicenter, so he could live off the rent. But all of the apartments were destroyed, and he has to start over.“I don’t know what I’m going to do,” he said.Distributing aid in the southern city of Antakya on Wednesday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesTurkish soldiers joined a rescue operation in Kahramanmaras on Friday.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesDuring his two decades as prime minister and president, Mr. Erdogan has argued that changes to the way Turkey was run were necessary to protect it from a range of domestic and foreign threats, including military coups and terrorist groups.He has also restricted the army, which played a key role in the government’s response to the 1999 earthquake.Turker Erturk, a former Navy admiral who was a commander in the crisis center set up after that quake, said in an interview that the army had swiftly intervened. But in the years since, Mr. Erdogan’s government had limited that ability and the army had stopped planning and training for it, he said.After Monday’s quake, the government called on the army only after public criticism, according to Mr. Erturk.“It is because of one-man rule,” he said. “In authoritarian governments, those decisions are made at the very top, and they wait for his commands.”On Friday, the army said in a tweet that its soldiers had been helping “from the first day” and now had more than 25,000 soldiers deployed. But their presence has not been obvious in many of the hardest-hit areas.Leading the government’s earthquake response is the Disaster and Emergency Management Presidency, or AFAD, which critics say Mr. Erdogan has stocked with loyalists and empowered at the expense of other organizations, like the Turkish Red Crescent.AFAD, the agency leading the government’s earthquake response, set up shelters for the homeless on the edge of Antakya on Thursday.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesA family gathered around a fire to stay warm in Antakya on Wednesday.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake has also led to increased scrutiny of the government’s use of construction codes aimed at preventing buildings from collapsing, according to analystsAlthough no one can predict the precise timing of an earthquake, seismologists have been warning for years that a big one was expected in this region.Three days before the quake, a prominent geologist, Naci Gorur, wrote on Twitter that he was concerned that other seismic activity in Turkey had put pressure on the faults near the epicenter of Monday’s tremor. He even posted a map pinning some of the locations that would be the hardest hit if his predictions came to pass.After the quake, he tweeted again, saying: “As geologists, we grew exhausted of repeating that this earthquake was coming. No one even cared what we were saying.”Following the 1999 quake, Turkey strengthened its construction codes to make buildings more earthquake resistant.But the zone devastated by the recent quakes is dotted with areas where some buildings survived while others nearby — some relatively new — completely collapsed, raising questions about whether some contractors had cut corners.A damaged artist’s studio in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesThe body of an earthquake victim at the entrance to a mosque in Antakya.Emily Garthwaite for The New York TimesAt one collapsed apartment block this week, volunteer construction workers spotted what they said was inferior rebar and they broke up chunks of concrete with their hands, saying it was poor quality.In the days since, a lawyers’ association has asked prosecutors in Kahramanmaras to identify contractors who built buildings that collapsed and inspectors who checked them so they can be investigated for possible criminal violations. Prosectors in Gaziantep have started collecting rubble samples for their own investigation.The earthquake left behind billions of dollars in damage, and government plans will require billions more at a time when the state budget is already strained.Before the quake, Mr. Erdogan’s government unleashed billions of dollars in new spending aimed at cushioning the blow of high inflation to citizens before the election, a cash injection that some economists predicted could tip the country into recession this year.On top of economic hardship, the earthquake will deepen Turks’ distress, and not in a way that makes them feel that they are contributing to a greater cause, said Selim Koru, an analyst at the Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey.“This, by its nature, comes out of nowhere, and it makes people even more miserable, and not just in the earthquake zone,” he said. “The economy is going to suffer, and I’m not sure it gives that suffering any meaning.”Searching for clothing in a donation pile in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesWatching the search and rescue operation in Antakya.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesThe earthquake’s proximity to the presidential and parliamentary elections that must be held on or before June 18 could lead to other challenges.The Reuters news agency quoted an unnamed Turkish official on Thursday as saying the earthquake’s devastation posed “serious difficulties” for the vote. It was the first hint that the government could seek to postpone it.Trying to unseat Mr. Erdogan is a coalition of six opposition parties that want to bolster the economy and restore independence to state institutions. They have already started trying to turn the quake response into an election issue.But even some angry voters still trust Mr. Erdogan.“We failed this test,” said Ismail Ozaslan, 58, a long-haul truck driver in a park in Gaziantep where part of his family was cramped inside a tent. “We are like patients left to die. There is no management here.”But his criticism of local and national officials, whom he accused of corruption and neglect, stopped short of Mr. Erdogan.“It’s like a building where the roof is strong but the pillars are rotten,” he said. “We don’t have a chance other than Erdogan. May God grant him a long life.”The damaged Kurtulus mosque in Gaziantep.Emin Ozmen for The New York TimesSafak Timur More

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      Will Americans Even Notice an Improving Economy?

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      Imagine that your picture of the U.S. economy came entirely from headlines and cable news chyrons. Would you know that real gross domestic product has risen 6.7 percent under President Biden, that America gained 4.5 million jobs in 2022 and that inflation over the past six months, which was indeed very high last winter, was less than 2 percent at an annual rate?This isn’t a hypothetical question. Most people don’t read long-form, data-driven essays on the economic outlook. Their sense of the economy is more likely to be shaped by snippets they read or hear.And there is a yawning gulf between public perceptions and economic reality. Recent economic data has been positive all around. Yet a plurality of adults believes that we’re in a recession. In an AP-NORC survey, three-quarters of Americans described the economy as “poor,” with only 25 percent saying it was “good.”You might be tempted to say, never mind the data, people know what’s happening to the economy from personal experience. But there’s a big disconnect on that front, too.Even with 75 percent of the public saying the economy is poor, a majority of Americans rate their own financial situation positively. On average, people seem to be saying that they’re doing reasonably well but that very bad things are happening to somebody else.This “I’m OK, you aren’t” syndrome was especially clear in a Federal Reserve survey carried out in late 2021; we won’t have the 2022 results until later this year, but I expect them to look similar. According to the 2021 survey, 78 percent of households said they were doing “at least OK” financially, a record high; only 24 percent said the national economy was “good or excellent,” a record low. Assessments of local economies, for which people have some personal knowledge, were in between.Now, this isn’t the first time I’ve written about the disconnect between economic perceptions and reality. In the past, however, I got a lot of pushback from people insisting that the public was in deep shock over the resurgence of inflation after years of more or less stable prices.At this point, however, that’s becoming a harder position to sustain. Since last summer prices of some goods, notably of eggs, have soared, but other prices, notably of gasoline, have plunged. As I said, the overall inflation rate in the second half of 2022 was around 2 percent, which has been normal for the past few decades, while the unemployment rate in December, at 3.5 percent, was at a 50-year low. Oh, and inflation-adjusted wages, which fell in the face of supply-chain problems and the Ukraine shock, have been rising again.So what explains the public’s sour view of what is objectively a pretty good economy?Partisanship is clearly part of the story. One striking aspect of that AP-NORC survey was that Democrats and Republicans weren’t that different in their assessments of their personal financial situation; majorities of both groups rated their condition as good. But 90 percent of Republicans said the national economy was poor. A longer view, from the Michigan Survey of Consumers, finds Republicans rating the current economy worse than they did in June 1980, when unemployment was above 7 percent and inflation was 14 percent.What about media coverage? Some of my colleagues get upset about any suggestion that economic reporting has had a negativity bias that affects public perceptions. Yet there’s actually hard evidence to that effect. The Michigan Survey asks respondents about what news they’ve heard about specific business conditions; all though 2022 — as the economy added 4.5 million jobs — more people reported hearing negative than positive news about employment.All of which raises an obviously important political question: Will Americans even notice an improving economy?To be fair, we don’t know whether the economic news will stay this good. Although many forecasters have backed off predictions of imminent recession, experts I talk to consider a growth hiccup over the next quarter or two to be likely. There’s also a raging debate among economists over whether we’ll need a sharp rise in unemployment to keep inflation low.But let’s assume that we get past any near-term wobbles and enter 2024 with both unemployment and inflation low. How many Americans will hear the good news?At this point we have to assume that as long as a Democrat sits in the White House, Fox News and Republicans in general will describe the economy as a disaster area whatever the reality. What’s less clear is how mainstream media will cover the economy, and what voters in general will perceive.Reports say that Biden’s political team plans to “lean into the economy” for the 2024 election. Indeed, while nothing is certain in economics (or life), Biden will most likely be able to run on a record of solid growth in incomes and jobs, with the inflation surge of 2021-22 receding in the rearview mirror.But we can safely predict that many people, not all of them Republican partisans, will insist, no matter what, that his record was a disaster. And I, at least, have no idea what voters will end up believing.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Britain’s Cautionary Tale of Self-Destruction

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      In December, as many as 500 patients per week were dying in Britain because of E.R. waits, according to the Royal College of Emergency Medicine, a figure rivaling (and perhaps surpassing) the death toll from Covid-19. On average, English ambulances were taking an hour and a half to respond to stroke and heart-attack calls, compared with a target time of 18 minutes; nationwide, 10 times as many patients spent more than four hours waiting in emergency rooms as did in 2011. The waiting list for scheduled treatments recently passed seven million — more than 10 percent of the country — prompting nurses to strike. The National Health Service has been in crisis for years, but over the holidays, as wait times spiked, the crisis moved to the very center of a narrative of national decline.Post-Covid, the geopolitical order has been thrown into tumult. At the beginning of the pandemic, commentators wondered about the fate of the United States, its indifferent political leadership and its apparently diminished “state capacity.” Lately, they have focused more on the sudden weakness of China: its population in decline, its economy struggling more than it has in decades, its “zero Covid” reversal a sign of both political weakness and political overreach, depending on whom you ask.But the descent of Britain is in many ways more dramatic. By the end of next year, the average British family will be less well off than the average Slovenian one, according to a recent analysis by John Burn-Murdoch at The Financial Times; by the end of this decade, the average British family will have a lower standard of living than the average Polish one.On the campaign trail and in office, promising a new prosperity, Boris Johnson used to talk incessantly about “leveling up.” But the last dozen years of uninterrupted Tory rule have produced, in economic terms, something much more like a national flatlining. In a 2020 academic analysis by Nicholas Crafts and Terence C. Mills, recently publicized by the economic historian Adam Tooze, the two economists asked whether the ongoing slowdown in British productivity was unprecedented. Their answer: not quite, but that it was certainly the worst in the last 250 years, since the very beginning of the Industrial Revolution. Which is to say: To find a fitting analogue to the British economic experience of the last decade, you have to reach back to a time before the arrival of any significant growth at all, to a period governed much more by Malthusianism, subsistence-level poverty and a nearly flat economic future. By all accounts, things have gotten worse since their paper was published. According to “Stagnation Nation,” a recent report by a think tank, there are eight million young Brits in the work force today who have not experienced sustained wage growth at all.Over the past several decades, the China boom and then the world’s populist turn have upended one of the basic promises of post-Cold War geopolitics: that free trade would not just bring predictable prosperity but also draw countries into closer political consensus around something like Anglo-American market liberalism. The experience of Britain over the same period suggests another fly in the end-of-history ointment, undermining a separate supposition of that era, which lives on in zombie form in ours: that convergence meant that rich and well-​governed countries would stay that way.For a few weeks last fall, as Liz Truss failed to survive longer as head of government than the shelf life of a head of lettuce, I found myself wondering how a country that had long seen itself — and to some significant degree been seen by the rest of the world — as a very beacon of good governance had become so seemingly ungovernable. It was of course not that long ago that American liberals looked with envy at the British system — admiring the speed of national elections, and the way that new governing coalitions always seemed able to get things done.Post-Brexit, both the outlook for Britain and the quality of its politics look very different, as everyone knows. But focusing on a single “Leave” vote risks confusing that one abrupt outburst of xenophobic populism with what in fact is a long-term story of manufactured decline. As Burn-Murdoch demonstrates in another in his series of data-rich analyses of the British plight, the country’s obvious struggles have a very obvious central cause: austerity. In the aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, and in the name of rebalancing budgets, the Tory-led government set about cutting annual public spending, as a proportion of G.D.P., to 39 percent from 46 percent. The cuts were far larger and more consistent than nearly all of Britain’s peer countries managed to enact; spending on new physical and digital health infrastructure, for instance, fell by half over the decade. In the United States, political reversals and partisan hypocrisy put a check on deep austerity; in Britain, the party making the cuts has stayed steadily in power for 12 years.The consequences have been remarkable: a very different Britain from the one that reached the turn of the millennium as Tony Blair’s “Cool Britannia.” Real wages have actually declined, on average, over the last 15 years, making America’s wage stagnation over the same period seem appealing by comparison. As the political economist William Davies has written, the private sector is also behaving shortsightedly, skimping on long-term investments and extracting profits from financial speculation instead: “To put it bluntly, Britain’s capitalist class has effectively given up on the future.” Even the right-wing Daily Telegraph is now lamenting that England is “becoming a poor country.”Of course, trends aside, in absolute terms Britain remains a wealthy place: the sixth-largest economy in the world, though its G.D.P. is now smaller than that of India, its former colony. And while the deluded promises of Brexit boosters obviously haven’t come to pass, neither have the bleakest projections: food shortages, crippling labor crunches or economic chaos.Instead, there has been a slow, sighing decay — one that makes contemporary Britain a revealing case study in the way we talk and think about the fates of nations and the shape of contemporary history. Optimists like to point to global graphs of long-term progress, but if the political experience of the last decade has taught us anything, it is that whether the world as a whole is richer than it was 50 years ago matters much less to the people on it today than who got those gains, and how they compare with expectations. Worldwide child mortality statistics are indeed encouraging, as are measures of global poverty. But it’s cold comfort to point out to an American despairing over Covid-era life expectancy declines that, in fact, a child born today can still expect to live longer than one born in 1995, for instance, or to tell a Brit worrying over his or her economic prospects that added prosperity is likely to come eventually — at the same level enjoyed by economies in the former Eastern Bloc.Can Britain even stomach such a comparison? The wealthy West has long regarded development as a race that has already and definitively been won, with suspense remaining primarily about how quickly and how fully the rest of the world might catch up. Rich countries could stumble, the triumphalist narrative went, but even the worst-case scenarios would look something like Japan — a rich country that stalled out and stubbornly stopped growing. But Japan is an economic utopia compared with Argentina, among the richest countries of the world a century ago, or Italy, which has tripped its way into instability over the last few decades. Britain has long since formally relinquished its dreams of world domination, but the implied bargain of imperial retreat was something like a tenured chair at the table of global elders. As it turns out, things can fall apart in the metropole too. Over two centuries, a tiny island nation made itself an empire and a capitalist fable, essentially inventing economic growth and then, powered by it, swallowing half the world. Over just two decades now, it has remade itself as a cautionary tale.David Wallace-Wells (@dwallacewells), a writer for Opinion and a columnist for The New York Times Magazine, is the author of “The Uninhabitable Earth.” More