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      Inflation Remains Voters’ Top Concern. Can Republicans Keep Their Focus?

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      Democrats and Republicans are running parallel campaigns, with one party emphasizing abortion and democracy, the other inflation and the economy — and both talking past each other.Zach Nunn, an Iowa Republican challenging one of the House’s most vulnerable Democrats, had been talking for months about rising prices when a Texas congressman two weeks ago invited him to visit the Mexican border — to see the fentanyl confiscated, hear tales of dying migrants and witness overwhelmed border agents.Mr. Nunn took it all in, he said. Then, he went back to a district that stretches from Des Moines to the Missouri line to talk about inflation some more.“You know, from knocking on 10,000 doors, what people are interested in,” Mr. Nunn said. It would not matter, he said, if he were speaking in Clarinda, Iowa — a city of 5,300 — or West Des Moines, a city of 70,000. “People are all talking about what is going on with the economy,” he said.In the six-month primary season that came to a close on Tuesday, issues like abortion, crime, immigration, the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, and Donald J. Trump have risen and fallen, but nothing has dislodged inflation and the economy from the top of voters’ minds. On Wednesday, polls out of Wisconsin and Georgia again found inflation to be the issue of greatest concern.A New York Times/Siena poll released on Friday had bright spots for Democrats, but 49 percent of respondents said that “economic issues such as jobs, taxes or the cost of living” were likely to determine their votes in November, compared with 31 percent who saw “societal issues such as abortion, guns or democracy” as decisive. And 52 percent of registered voters said they agreed with Republicans on the economy, versus 38 percent who said they agreed with Democrats.“People are all talking about what is going on with the economy,” said Zach Nunn, a Republican candidate for a House seat in Iowa.Bryon Houlgrave/The Des Moines Register, via Associated PressAnd Republican candidates aren’t letting go.“Inflation is now high enough to rob every working American of a month’s pay over the course of a year,” said Tom Barrett, a Michigan state senator challenging Representative Elissa Slotkin, a Democrat, in a Republican-leaning district around Lansing.Representative Nancy Mace, Republican of South Carolina, released her first advertisement of the general election on Thursday — and it focused solely on inflation.“I’m Nancy Mace, and I have had it with crazy inflation,” she says to the camera as she counts up the cost of cooking an eggs-and-bacon breakfast. (Milk, $4 a gallon, a dozen eggs, nearly $4, and bacon, $8 a pack.)For all the losers in an inflationary economy, there are also winners: people with large mortgages or student loan burdens that shrink away in real terms; workers whose wages suddenly rise, sometimes enough to keep pace with prices; frugal seniors who enjoy Social Security cost-of-living increases tied to the inflation rate and higher interest rates on their savings accounts.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Echoing Trump: Six G.O.P. nominees for governor and the Senate in critical midterm states, all backed by former President Donald J. Trump, would not commit to accepting this year’s election results.Times/Siena Poll: Our second survey of the 2022 election cycle found Democrats remain unexpectedly competitive in the battle for Congress, while G.O.P. dreams of a major realignment among Latino voters have failed to materialize.Ohio Senate Race: The contest between Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat, and his Republican opponent, J.D. Vance, appears tighter than many once expected.Pennsylvania Senate Race: In one of his most extensive interviews since having a stroke, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, the Democratic nominee, said he was fully capable of handling a campaign that could decide control of the Senate.Even so, inflation has had outsize potency as a political issue for at least a century — and since hyperinflation after World War I helped usher in authoritarianism across Europe, few issues have been quite so politically destabilizing.In the mid-1990s, Robert J. Shiller, a Nobel Prize-winning economist at Yale who was puzzled by the power of inflation as a disruptive force, surveyed people in the United States, Germany and Brazil to determine why inflation had always produced so much anger, wounded national pride and a feeling that an unwritten social contract between citizens and their government had been broken.Facing deep feelings of insecurity, anxiety and unfairness, “not a single respondent volunteered anywhere on the questionnaire that he or she benefited from inflation,” he marveled.Representative Nancy Mace released her first ad of the general election last week, focusing on the economy. “I’m Nancy Mace, and I have had it with crazy inflation,” she says in the ad.Allison Joyce/Getty ImagesFor Republicans seeking control of Congress, that history still could prove determinative, even as Democrats try to center their campaigns on abortion rights and democratic pluralism and Republican strategists test other themes, like crime, the border and Democratic “radicalism.”Representative Kim Schrier, a Democrat in the suburbs of Seattle who is locked in a tossup contest for re-election, has gone after her Republican opponent, Matt Larkin, on abortion, using her background as a physician to press a persona of earnest trustworthiness. Democratic campaign officials in Washington, D.C., have accused Mr. Larkin of questioning the election results of 2020 and refusing to acknowledge President Biden as legitimately elected.Mr. Larkin’s response? The price of eggs, “up 52 percent in Washington State,” he said Thursday, and milk, “way, way up in the Eighth District.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Voters, he said in an interview, “are very, very concerned.”And, in a country where one party controls the House, the Senate and the White House — and in a state where Democrats control pretty much everything — “there’s also a sense that the Democrats in general are doing this,” Mr. Larkin added.That, too, is consistent with economic history: Citizens of countries suffering from inflation have routinely sought to assign blame — to the government, to greedy companies or to politicians. Inflationary periods often yield labor strife, as workers and unions press for wage increases to keep up with rising prices, point fingers at “price-gouging” companies and, more than anything, rage at those in power.Labor leaders marching against inflation at a demonstration in Buenos Aires in August.Juan Mabromata/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesRichard M. Nixon’s 1968 victory over Hubert Humphrey is popularly attributed to the Vietnam War and domestic unrest, but inflation was a “top three” issue, even though price increases were a relatively mild 4.27 percent, said Jason Furman, a Harvard economist with deep connections to the national Democratic Party.Gerald R. Ford’s defeat in 1976 is often ascribed to the hangover from Watergate, but his WIN (Whip Inflation Now) buttons became an object of ridicule in a year in which inflation was still pushing 6 percent. Four years later, Jimmy Carter’s dreams of a second term were vaporized by 13.5 percent inflation.And in 1982, as the Federal Reserve was engineering a recession to finally get control of price gains and Ronald Reagan was absorbing the blame, Democrats beat Republicans by nearly 12 percentage points in the midterm elections — and padded their House majority by 27 seats.“From bitter historical experience, we know how quickly inflation destroys confidence in the reliability of political institutions and ends up endangering democracy,” Helmut Kohl, the chancellor of Germany, said in 1995, harking back to the hyperinflation of the Weimar Republic.In 2022, Republicans like State Senator Jen Kiggans, who is challenging Representative Elaine Luria in southeast Virginia, are using inflation not only to go after the party in power, but also to deflect Democratic charges of “radicalism” by portraying themselves as ordinary family folks, in touch with consumer reality.For voters, however, the signals from the actual economy are mixed. The official inflation report last Tuesday showed that prices in August rose 8.3 percent from a year earlier, only slightly better than July’s 8.5 percent. But because of rapidly falling gasoline prices, overall consumer costs from the month before rose a barely noticeable 0.1 percent. Prices at the pump, the most visible inflationary signal to consumers, are expected to continue their fall in the weeks leading up to the election. That could offer at least psychological relief to consumers — and Democrats — as other cost-of-living indicators like food and rent send stock traders and the Federal Reserve running for shelter.Gasoline prices are expected to continue falling in the weeks leading up to the November elections.Carlos Bernate for The New York Times“If you’re going to have 8 percent inflation over the year before up to the election, you’d like to have the last three months at zero, so the sequencing is about as good as it could be” for Democrats, Mr. Furman said.Mr. Barrett conceded that these fresh signals could blunt the political impact. “To some degree, they boiled the frog, then turned the temperature down a notch on the stove,” he said, “but it’s still raging hot.”And his Democratic opponent, Ms, Slotkin, has taken pains to address the issue, too, ticking off legislation and administrative actions that she said she supported to address inflation. They include suspending the federal gas tax, releasing oil from the strategic petroleum reserve, pressing companies on “price gouging” and granting Medicare the authority to negotiate drug prices.“Certainly if there was a silver bullet to fix it, it would have been fired,” she said, adding, “leaders need to do all they can — not just use it as a political issue.”Republicans say that, as children go back to school, higher prices on clothes, food and school supplies will come more into focus, and cold weather will bring the sticker shock of soaring heating bills. The disorienting power of price increases is all the more potent, experts say, because Americans have not weathered them in four decades.Democrats hope to turn voters’ minds elsewhere. On the lengthy “issues” web page of Mr. Nunn’s opponent, Representative Cindy Axne, the word inflation does not appear, though she does mention inflation in one campaign ad as being among a litany of travails hitting Iowans recently. In another ad, Ms. Axne acknowledges that “rising costs are hurting Iowa families everywhere.”Representative Cindy Axne mentioned inflation in one campaign ad, among a list of problems facing Iowans.Cheriss May for The New York TimesOn Friday, Emilia Sykes, the Democratic candidate for an open House seat in northeast Ohio, released a new ad saying she has “a plan to lower costs,” though she avoided the word inflation.Elsewhere, Democrats are focusing almost exclusively on abortion, democracy and the overall theme that Republicans who have undermined the integrity of elections and democratic institutions cannot be trusted with power.In that sense, the parties are entering the final sprint to Nov. 8 largely talking past each other.But the unique ability of inflation to anger voters and undermine authorities in power should not be underestimated, economists say. Wage increases, though stronger than they have been in years, have not kept pace with inflation this year, but in 2021, when voters’ anger showed up most clearly in polling, average family incomes “far exceeded” price gains, thanks in large part to temporary tax cuts and income supplements approved in successive pandemic-relief measures, said Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist.“Average actual real incomes went up, not down,” he said, “so it’s still a puzzle.”For Republicans, there is no mystery, only the challenge of staying on the issue as Democrats try to direct voters’ attention anywhere else.“This stuff is real,” Mr. Barrett said on Thursday. “The Democrats are whistling past the graveyard.” More

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      Ahead of Midterms, Yellen Embarks on Economic Victory Tour

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      DEARBORN, Mich. — Emerging from months of inflation and recession fears, the Biden administration is pivoting to recast its stewardship of the U.S. economy as a singular achievement. In their pitch to voters, two months before midterm elections determine whether Democrats will maintain full control of Washington, Biden officials are pointing to a postpandemic resurgence of factories and “forgotten” cities.The case was reinforced on Thursday by Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen, who laid out the trajectory of President Biden’s economic agenda on the floor of Ford Motor’s electric vehicle factory in Dearborn, Mich. Surrounded by F-150 Lightning trucks, Ms. Yellen described an economy where new infrastructure investments would soon make it easier to produce and move goods around the country, bringing prosperity to places that have been left behind.“We know that a disproportionate share of economic opportunity has been concentrated in major coastal cities,” Ms. Yellen said in a speech. “Investments from the Biden economic plan have already begun shifting this dynamic.”Her comments addressed a U.S. economy that is at a crossroads. Some metrics suggest that a run of the highest inflation in four decades has peaked, but recession fears still loom as the Federal Reserve continues to raise interest rates to contain rising prices. The price of gasoline has been easing in recent weeks, but a European Union embargo on Russian oil that is expected to take effect in December could send prices soaring again, rattling the global economy. Lockdowns in China in response to virus outbreaks continue to weigh on the world’s second-largest economy.In her speech on Thursday, Ms. Yellen said the legislation that Mr. Biden signed this year to promote infrastructure investment, expand the domestic semiconductor industry and support the transition to electric vehicles represented what she called “modern supply-side economics.” Rather than relying on tax cuts and deregulation to spur economic growth, as Republicans espouse, Ms. Yellen contends that investments that make it easier to produce products in the United States will lead to a more broad-based and stable economic expansion. She argued that an expansion of clean energy initiatives was also a matter of national security.“It will put us well on our way toward a future where we depend on the wind, sun and other clean sources for our energy,” Ms. Yellen said as Ford’s electric pickup trucks were assembled around her. “We will rid ourselves from our current dependence on fossil fuels and the whims of autocrats like Putin,” she said, referring to President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia.The remarks were the first of several that top Biden administration officials and the president himself are planning to make this month as midterm election campaigns around the country enter their final stretch. After months of being on the defensive in the face of criticism from Republicans who say Democrats fueled inflation by overstimulating the economy, the Biden administration is fully embracing the fruits of initiatives such as the $1.9 trillion American Rescue Plan of 2021, which disbursed $350 billion to states and cities.At the factory, Ms. Yellen met with some of Ford’s top engineers and executives. During her trip to Michigan, she also made stops in Detroit at an East African restaurant, an apparel manufacturer and a coffee shop that received federal stimulus funds. She dined with Detroit’s mayor, Mike Duggan, and Michigan’s lieutenant governor, Garlin Gilchrist.Detroit was awarded $827 million through the relief package and has been spending the money on projects to clean up blighted neighborhoods, expand broadband access and upgrade parks and recreation venues.Although Ms. Yellen is helping to lead what Treasury officials described as a victory lap, some of her top priorities have yet to be addressed..css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.The so-called Inflation Reduction Act, which Congress passed last month, did not contain provisions to put the United States in compliance with the global tax agreement that Ms. Yellen brokered last year, which aimed to eliminate corporate tax havens, leaving the deal in limbo. On Thursday, she said she would continue to “advocate for additional reforms of our tax code and the global tax system.”Despite Ms. Yellen’s belief that some of the tariffs that the Trump administration imposed on Chinese imports were not strategic and should be removed, Mr. Biden has yet to roll them back. In her speech, Ms. Yellen accused China of unfairly using its market advantages as leverage against other countries but said maintaining “mutually beneficial trade” was important.Ms. Yellen also made no mention in her speech of Mr. Biden’s recent decision to cancel student loan debt for millions of Americans. She believed the policy, which budget analysts estimate could cost the federal government $300 billion, could fuel inflation.Treasury Department officials said Detroit, the center of the American automobile industry, exemplified how many elements of the Biden administration’s economic agenda are coming together to benefit a place that epitomized the economic carnage of the 2008 financial crisis. Legislation that Democrats passed this year is meant to create new incentives for the purchase of electric vehicles, improve access to microchips that are critical for car manufacturing and smooth out supply chains that have been disrupted during the pandemic.“There will be greater certainty in our increasingly technology-dependent economy,” Ms. Yellen said.But the transition to a postpandemic economy has had its share of turbulence.Ford said last month that it was cutting 3,000 jobs as part of an effort to reduce costs and become more competitive amid the industry’s evolution to electric vehicles. The company also cut nearly 300 workers in April.“People in Michigan can be pretty nervous about the transition to electric vehicles because they actually require by some estimation a lot less labor to assemble because there are fewer parts,” said Gabriel Ehrlich, an economist at the University of Michigan. “There are questions about what does that mean for these jobs.”Republicans in Congress continue to assail the Biden administration’s management of the economy.“Inflation continues to sit at a 40-year high, eating away at paychecks and sending costs through the roof,” Representative Tim Walberg, a Michigan Republican, said on Twitter on Thursday. “While in Michigan today, Secretary Yellen should apologize for being so wrong about the inflation-fueling impact of the Biden administration’s runaway spending.”Ms. Yellen will be followed to Michigan next week by Mr. Biden, who will attend Detroit’s annual auto show.The business community in Detroit, noting the magnetism of Michigan’s swing-state status, welcomed the attention.“We’re about as purple as it gets right now,” Sandy K. Baruah, the chief executive of the Detroit Regional Chamber, a business group.Noting the importance of the automobile industry to America’s economy, Mr. Baruah added: “When you think about blue-collar jobs and the transitioning nature of blue-collar jobs, especially in the manufacturing space, Michigan has the perfect optics.” More

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      Rising Energy Prices and High Inflation: The Economic Issues Facing Liz Truss

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      For the past eight weeks through the Conservative Party’s leadership contest, the severity of Britain’s economic troubles only worsened. The new prime minister, Liz Truss, will be greeted with a long list of demands for rapid and aggressive support to alleviate the pain caused by the rising cost of living.Looming over the new government is the specter of stagflation — an unpleasant mix of stagnant economic growth and high inflation. Consumer prices are rising at their fastest pace in four decades as the rate of inflation exceeds 10 percent and is expected to keep climbing. Meanwhile, the economy contracted in the second quarter, and the Bank of England is forecasting a long recession to begin later this year as wages lag and household budgets are squeezed by rising food and energy costs. Household incomes, adjusted for inflation and taxes, are predicted to fall sharply this year and next, in the worst decline in records dating back to the 1960s, the central bank said.Britain caps household energy bills, but that limit will increase by 80 percent beginning next month. And there are calls for urgent action to help low-income households as it becomes increasingly accepted that a relief package laid out in May is inadequate. Liz Truss said on Sunday that should introduce a package to help people with energy bills within a week of taking office. Small businesses — especially energy-intensive ones, such as pubs and restaurants — are warning of widespread closures over the winter as companies won’t be able to afford their energy bills. The pub industry said there needs to be “swift and substantial” government intervention to avoid large-scale job losses.There is also a growing number of labor strikes, as workers across industries demand pay raises in line with the cost of living. Among those walking out or threatening to are port workers, nurses, teachers, train drivers and mail service personnel.Beyond these immediate problems, Britain also has many long-running economic challenges to overcome. How will the new government try to make a success of Brexit, which so far has made trading with Britain’s closest neighbors more cumbersome and costly? Can the government close the inequality gap between London and the rest of the country? Amid an energy crisis, will the government get on track to meet its legally binding targets to reach net zero carbon emissions?The gloomy economic prospects for Britain are clear in financial markets. The pound dropped 4.5 percent against the U.S. dollar in August, its worst month in nearly six years, and is now trading at $1.15. It’s at its lowest level since March 2020, and approaching the lowest since 1985. The price of British government bonds has dropped as investors turn away from British assets and expect the central bank to need to raise interest rates sharply to rein in inflation. More

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      As Latin America Shifts Left, Leaders Face a Bleak Reality.

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      All six of the region’s largest economies could soon be run by presidents elected on leftist platforms. Their challenge? Inflation, war in Europe and growing poverty at home.BOGOTÁ, Colombia — In Chile, a tattooed former student activist won the presidency with a pledge to oversee the most profound transformation of Chilean society in decades, widening the social safety net and shifting the tax burden to the wealthy.In Peru, the son of poor farmers was propelled to victory on a vow to prioritize struggling families, feed the hungry and correct longstanding disparities in access to health care and education.In Colombia, a former rebel and longtime legislator was elected the country’s first leftist president, promising to champion the rights of Indigenous, Black and poor Colombians, while building an economy that works for everyone.“A new story for Colombia, for Latin America, for the world,” he said in his victory speech, to thunderous applause.After years of tilting rightward, Latin America is hurtling to the left, a watershed moment that began in 2018 with the election of Andrés Manuel López Obrador in Mexico and could culminate with a victory later this year by a leftist candidate in Brazil, leaving the region’s six largest economies run by leaders elected on leftist platforms.A combination of forces have thrust this new group into power, including an anti-incumbent fervor driven by anger over chronic poverty and inequality, which have only been exacerbated by the pandemic and have deepened frustration among voters who have taken out their indignation on establishment candidates.During the height of a coronavirus wave in Peru last year, people waited to refill oxygen tanks for loved ones on the outskirts of Lima. Marco Garro for The New York TimesBut just as new leaders settle into office, their campaign pledges have collided with a bleak reality, including a European war that has sent the cost of everyday goods, from fuel to food, soaring, making life more painful for already suffering constituents and evaporating much of the good will presidents once enjoyed.Chile’s Gabriel Boric, Peru’s Pedro Castillo and Colombia’s Gustavo Petro are among the leaders who rode to victory promising to help the poor and disenfranchised, but who find themselves facing enormous challenges in trying to meet the high expectations of voters.Unlike today, the last significant leftist shift in Latin America, in the first decade of the millennium, was propelled by a commodities boom that allowed leaders to expand social programs and move an extraordinary number of people into the middle class, raising expectations for millions of families.Now that middle class is sliding backward, and instead of a boom, governments face pandemic-battered budgets, galloping inflation fed by the war in Ukraine, rising migration and increasingly dire economic and social consequences of climate change.In Argentina, where the leftist Alberto Fernández took the reins from a right-wing president in late 2019, protesters have taken to the streets amid rising prices. Even larger protests erupted recently in Ecuador, threatening the government of one of the region’s few newly elected right-wing presidents, Guillermo Lasso.“I don’t want to be apocalyptic about it,” said Cynthia Arnson, a distinguished fellow at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. “But there are times when you look at this that it feels like the perfect storm, the number of things hitting the region at once.”Protesters in Santiago, Chile, in 2019, demanding economic changes to address systemic inequality. The country’s new president, elected last year, has become deeply unpopular among Chileans angry over rising prices.Tomas Munita for The New York TimesThe rise of social media, with the potential to supercharge discontent and drive major protest movements, including in Chile and Colombia, has shown people the power of the streets.Beginning in August, when Mr. Petro takes over from his conservative predecessor, five of the six largest economies in the region will be run by leaders who campaigned from the left.The sixth, Brazil, the largest country in Latin America, could swing that way in a national election in October. Polls show that former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a fiery leftist, has a wide lead on the right-wing incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro.New leaders in Colombia and Chile are far more socially progressive than leftists in the past, calling for a shift away from fossil fuels and advocating for abortion rights at a time when the United States Supreme Court is moving the country in the opposite direction.But taken together, this group is extremely mixed, differing on everything from economic policy to their commitment to democratic principles.Mr. Petro and Mr. Boric have vowed to vastly expand social programs for the poor, for example, while Mr. López Obrador, who is focused on austerity, is reducing spending.What does link these leaders, however, are promises for sweeping change that in many instances are running headlong into difficult and growing challenges.Gustavo Petro and his running mate, Francia Márquez, celebrated their victory in June in Colombia’s national election. They will lead a country where 40 percent of the people lives on less than half of the monthly minimum wage.Federico Rios for The New York TimesIn Chile late last year, Mr. Boric beat José Antonio Kast, a right-wing establishment politician associated with Chile’s former dictator, Augusto Pinochet, by pledging to jettison the neoliberal economic policies of the past.But just months into his term, with an inexperienced cabinet, divided Congress, rising consumer prices and unrest in the country’s south, Mr. Boric’s approval ratings have plummeted.Ninety percent of poll respondents told the polling firm Cadem this month that they believed the country’s economy was stuck or going backward.Like many neighbors in the region, Chile’s yearly inflation rate is the highest it has been in more than a generation, at 11.5 percent, spurring a cost-of-living crisis.In southern Chile, a land struggle between the Mapuche, the country’s largest Indigenous group, and the state has entered its deadliest phase in 20 years, leading Mr. Boric to reverse course on one of his campaign pledges and redeploy troops in the area.Catalina Becerra, 37, a human resources manager from Antofagasta, in northern Chile, said that “like many people of my generation” she voted for Mr. Boric because Mr. Kast “didn’t represent me in the slightest.”Students taking part in an anti-government protest in June in Santiago.Javier Torres/Agence France-Presse, via Getty Images“But I wasn’t convinced by what he could do for the country,’’ Ms. Becerra added. “He has not achieved what he said he would.”In September, Chileans will vote on a remarkably progressive constitution that enshrines gender equality, environmental protections and Indigenous rights and that is meant to replace a Pinochet-era document.The president has bound his success to the referendum, putting himself in a precarious position should the draft be rejected, which polls show is for now the more likely outcome.In neighboring Peru, Mr. Castillo rose last year from virtual anonymity to beat Keiko Fujimori, a right-wing career politician whose father, former President Alberto Fujimori, governed with an iron fist and introduced neoliberal policies similar to those rejected by Chilean voters.While some Peruvians supported Mr. Castillo solely as a rejection of Ms. Fujimori, he also represented real hopes for many, especially poor and rural voters.As a candidate, Mr. Castillo promised to empower farmers with more subsidies, access to credit and technical assistance.But today, he is barely managing to survive politically. He has governed erratically, pulled between his far-left party and the far-right opposition, reflecting the fractious politics that helped him win the presidency.Supporters of Peru’s leftist presidential candidate Pedro Castillo during a protest against his rival’s effort to annul votes in 2021. Mr. Castillo won the election but is barely managing to survive politically. Marco Garro for The New York TimesMr. Castillo — whose approval rating has sunk to 19 percent, according to the Institute of Peruvian Studies — is now subject to five criminal probes, has already faced two impeachment attempts and cycled through seven interior ministers.The agrarian reform he pledged has yet to translate into any concrete policies. Instead, price spikes for food, fuel and fertilizer are hitting his base the hardest.Farmers are struggling through one of the worst crises in decades, facing the biggest planting season of the year without widespread access to synthetic fertilizer. They normally get most of it from Russia, but it is difficult to obtain because of global supply disruptions related to the war.Eduardo Zegarra, an investigator at GRADE, a research institute, called the situation “unprecedented.”“I think this is going to unfold very dramatically, and usher in a lot of instability,” he said.In a poor, hillside neighborhood in Lima, the capital, many parents are skipping meals so their children have more to eat.“We voted for Castillo because we had the hope that his government would be different,” said Ruth Canchari, 29, a stay-at-home mother of three children. “But he’s not taking action.”In Colombia, Mr. Petro will take office facing many of the same headwinds.President Gabriel Boric of Chile flashed a victory sign after his swearing-in ceremony at Congress in Valparaiso in March.Esteban Felix/Associated PressPoverty has risen — 40 percent of households now live on less than $100 a month, less than half of the monthly minimum wage — while inflation has hit nearly 10 percent.Still, despite widespread financial anxiety, Mr. Petro’s actions as he prepares to assume office seem to have earned him some support.He has made repeated calls for national consensus, met with his biggest political foe, the right-wing former president Álvaro Uribe, and appointed a widely respected, relatively conservative and Yale-educated finance minister.The moves may allow Mr. Petro to govern more successfully than, say, Mr. Boric, said Daniel García-Peña, a political scientist, and have calmed down some fears about how he will try to revive the economy.But given how quickly the honeymoon period ended for others, Mr. Petro will have precious little time to start delivering relief.“Petro must come through for his voters,” said Hernan Morantes, 30, a Petro supporter and environmental activist. “Social movements must be ready, so that when the government does not come through, or does not want to come through, we’re ready.”Julie Turkewitz More

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      Democrats Face Deepening Peril as Republicans Seize on Inflation Fears

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      Economists warn that a blitz of midterm election campaign ads could push consumer prices even higher.WASHINGTON — Triple-digit gasoline bills. Bulging hamburger prices. A Fourth of July holiday that broke the bank.Prices are rising at the fastest rate in four decades, a painful development that has given Republicans a powerful talking point just months ahead of the midterm elections. With control of Congress very much in play, Republicans are investing heavily in a blitz of campaign advertisements that portray a dark sense of economic disarray as they seek to make inflation a political albatross for President Biden and Democrats.According to Kantar’s Campaign Media Analysis Group, candidates running in House, Senate and governor races around the country have spent nearly $22 million airing about 130,000 local and national television ads that mention inflation from early April through the beginning of July. Inflation was the 10th most common issue mentioned by Democrats and 11th most common for Republicans, according to the data, underscoring how critical the issue is to both parties this election cycle.The data released Wednesday showing that prices in June climbed 9.1 percent over the past year gave Republicans fresh ammunition against Mr. Biden and his party, ammunition that includes faulting Democrats for passing a $1.9 trillion stimulus package last year and efforts to push through additional spending in a sweeping climate and economic package known as “Build Back Better.”The intensifying focus on inflation is already weighing on Mr. Biden’s poll numbers. A New York Times/Siena College poll this week showed his approval at a meager 33 percent, with 20 percent of voters viewing jobs and the economy as the most important problem facing the country. Inflation and the cost of living followed closely behind. The poll also showed that the race for control of Congress is surprisingly tight.While gas prices have fallen from their $5 a gallon peak and there are signs that inflation might be slowing, consumers are unlikely to feel better off anytime soon. Gas prices are still much higher than they were a year ago, with the average national price for a gallon at $4.60 versus $3.15 in 2021, according to AAA.Voters view jobs and the economy as among the most important issues facing the country.Hiroko Masuike/The New York Times“It’s a very negative thing politically for the Democrats,” said Jason Furman, an economist at Harvard University and former Obama administration economic adviser. “My guess is that the negative views about inflation are so deeply baked in that nothing can change in the next few months to change them.”The White House, while acknowledging the pain that inflation is causing, has tried to deflect responsibility, saying that it is a global problem and attributing it to shortages of food and oil stemming from Russian President Vladimir V. Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.On Wednesday, Mr. Biden called the latest Consumer Price Index “out-of-date” given the recent fall in gas prices and said the data “is a reminder that all major economies are battling this Covid-related challenge, made worse by Putin’s unconscionable aggression.”8 Signs That the Economy Is Losing SteamCard 1 of 9Worrying outlook. More

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      Your Monday Briefing: Sri Lanka in Turmoil

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      Plus Shinzo Abe’s allies win a supermajority in Japan’s parliament and Russia bombards Donetsk.Good morning. We’re covering the resignation of Sri Lanka’s president, election results in Japan and Russia’s bombardment of Donetsk, Ukraine.Sri Lanka’s economy has been foundering for months, leading to widespread protests.Dinuka Liyanawatte/ReutersSri Lanka’s president to resignAn official said President Gotabaya Rajapaksa had agreed to resign as the leader of Sri Lanka after protesters took over his house on Saturday. Rajapaksa hasn’t been seen since.Rajapaksa himself has not yet addressed the reports that he plans to resign later this week, and it’s unclear who is in charge. Ranil Wickremesinghe, who replaced Rajapaksa’s brother as prime minister in May, also agreed to resign on Saturday after his home was set on fire.It’s unclear what the next government will look like and what it can do immediately to address shortages of food, medicine, fuel and other essentials. Without fuel, Sri Lanka’s economy is grinding to a halt. The country needs billions of dollars to stabilize its economy.Details: Local media reported that Rajapaksa had ordered cooking fuel to be distributed, his first statement since the takeover. The statement could not be immediately verified.Background: The takeover was the culmination of months of public discontent with the Rajapaksa family, a political dynasty that has been accused of destroying the economy and violating human rights.Details: Protesters swam in Rajapaksa’s pool, lounged on canopied beds and watched cricket on wide-screen televisions when they stormed his residence this weekend. “It still feels unreal,” one man told The Times.Shinzo Abe’s death appeared to have increased voter turnout to over 52 percent, up from about 49 percent in 2019.Kimimasa Mayama/EPA, via ShutterstockAbe’s allies win a supermajorityThe Liberal Democrats and their partners gained enough seats yesterday to form a two-thirds supermajority in Japan’s Parliament, two days after the party’s former leader, Shinzo Abe, was assassinated.The mandate will give the lawmakers a new chance to pursue Abe’s long-held ambition of revising a clause that renounces war in the country’s pacifist Constitution.Better Understand the Russia-Ukraine WarHistory: Here’s what to know about Russia and Ukraine’s relationship and the causes of the conflict.On the Ground: Russian and Ukrainian forces are using a bevy of weapons as a deadly war of attrition grinds on in eastern Ukraine.Outside Pressures: Governments, sports organizations and businesses are taking steps to punish Russia. Here is a list of companies that have pulled out of the country.Updates: To receive the latest updates in your inbox, sign up here. The Times has also launched a Telegram channel to make its journalism more accessible around the world.The election results were also a clear sign that Abe, Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, remained a guiding political force, even though he resigned in 2020. But without him, the will to push revisions through a difficult parliamentary process could wane.Context: The plan to amend the Constitution has long been unpopular with the public. With inflation pressures mounting, the yen weakening, the war in Ukraine heightening fears of energy shortages and coronavirus infections rising, it could be a harder sell than ever.Assassination: Here is what we know so far. The police have released little information about the suspect and his motives, but acknowledged that Abe’s security was flawed.Russia’s attacks often seem random. Taken as a whole, they make clear that Moscow aims to capture more of Donetsk.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesRussia bombards DonetskRussia has aggressively moved to take the entire Donbas region of Ukraine after seizing the Luhansk province last week. Over the weekend, it bombarded the five main towns and cities in neighboring Donetsk, the other province in the region.At least 15 people were killed in Donetsk when a Russian missile hit an apartment complex in the village of Chasiv Yar. Rescue crews said that up to 20 people could still be trapped, including a 9-year-old boy. Here are live updates.In the northeast, Russian forces also conducted attacks on the Kharkiv region. Last week, Russia established a civilian administration and unveiled a new flag in border areas under its control — a sign, analysts said, that Moscow plans to annex the territory.Ukrainian officials estimate that Russia already occupies about 30 percent of the Kharkiv region.Soldiers: Russia, desperate for recruits, has turned to cash incentives to bring in new fighters — often from impoverished minority groups.Gas prices: President Biden is seeking a global price cap on Russian oil, a full European ban on which could raise U.S. gas prices to $7 a gallon.Analysis: The war is becoming a contest of global stamina between Russia and the West.THE LATEST NEWSThe G20 meetingThe U.S. secretary of state, Antony Blinken, with Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister.Pool photo by Stefani ReynoldsAt a meeting in Indonesia, Secretary of State Antony Blinken, the top U.S. diplomat, pressed Wang Yi, China’s foreign minister, to further isolate Russia. Wang responded sharply, noting a “growing ‘China phobia’” in the U.S.China warned Australia to stop treating it as an opponent and instead view Beijing as a partner, Reuters reports.Several Western nations shunned Sergey Lavrov, the Russian foreign minister, who still met with diplomats from China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey and Argentina.Asia PacificFlash floods in Kashmir killed at least 16 people during a Hindu pilgrimage, Reuters reports.Intense flooding also killed dozens of people in Pakistan and Afghanistan, Reuters reports.An outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease disrupted Eid al-Adha celebrations in Indonesia, The Associated Press reports.Maria Ressa, the Nobel Prize laureate, lost her appeal against a cyberlibel conviction and could face a lengthy prison sentence, The Guardian reports. The development comes after authorities in the Philippines ordered her news website, Rappler, to shut down.The toll of Australia’s recurring natural disasters is starting to show among the residents of New South Wales.World NewsElon Musk filed to back out of his deal to buy Twitter on Friday. Now, the issue is moving to the courts.Steve Bannon, a former adviser to Donald Trump who faces up to two years in jail and large fines, agreed to testify before the Jan. 6 panel, just days before his criminal trial for contempt of Congress is set to begin.At least 21 people were killed when gunmen opened fire on three taverns in South Africa this weekend. WimbledonNovak Djokovic beat the Australian upstart Nick Kyrgios in four sets, winning his 21st Grand Slam singles title.Elena Rybakina, a 23-year-old Russia native who competed for Kazakhstan, won her first Grand Slam title.A Morning ReadA tombstone in South Korea commemorating the final days of Internet Explorer. “He was a good tool to download other browsers,” it reads.Chang W. Lee/The New York TimesSouth Korea is known for its blazing broadband and innovative devices. But the country remains tethered to a buggy and insecure piece of software that was introduced 27 years ago and has since been abandoned by most of the world: Internet Explorer.ARTS AND IDEASLuca Tong behind the wheel of his “hot dog” bus in Hong Kong last month.Louise Delmotte for The New York TimesA ‘hot dog bus’ returnsDouble-decker “hot dog buses,” nicknamed for their lack of air-conditioning, were once a daily feature of life in Hong Kong. But they’ve been out of commission for more than a decade.Now, at least one has returned to the city’s streets, thanks to two pilots who pooled their savings to buy and restore the relic. When the pandemic cut their flight hours, they spent months scouring the internet for antique parts, watching old video clips to determine the correct font and placement of stickers and decals, and documenting the process on Instagram.For onlookers, the bus is a trip of nostalgia, a portal to the 1980s and ’90s. When the pilots, Luca Tong and Kobee Ko, park it at a terminal by the harbor front, enthusiasts come aboard to marvel at it. “All my memories came back,” said one woman who used to ride hot dog buses in high school and who brought her 4-year-old son for the experience.But the bus is also a memento of a happier time in the city, before pandemic restrictions and a sweeping political crackdown.“Back then, there was freedom, money and a whole lot of warmth,” Tong, 35, said. “The bus has the feeling of Hong Kong at that time, but that feeling is disappearing from Hong Kong.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChris Simpson for The New York Times. Food stylist: Maggie Ruggiero. Prop stylist: Sophia Pappas.Bryan Washington weaves his childhood and his travels into this recipe for kimchi Cheddar biscuits. Chill your butter for best results.TravelA flight attendant gives advice for avoiding summer chaos. And here are tips to avoid lost luggage.What to Read“Son of Elsewhere” is a funny, frank memoir about the writer’s experiences emigrating from Sudan to Canada as a child.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Word with milk, note or number (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The veteran financial reporter Joe Rennison is joining The Times to cover markets and trading.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on Boris Johnson’s resignation.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      ‘Tuve que irme’: Hong Kong se debate entre el legado británico y el futuro autoritario de China

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      HONG KONG — El día en que Hong Kong fue devuelto a China hace un cuarto de siglo, el fabricante de fideos de Queen’s Road trabajaba como lo había hecho durante días y décadas previas, transformando harina y agua en el sustento de una ciudad llena de refugiados del continente. Para satisfacer los diversos gustos, elaboraba tiernos fideos de Shanghái y pasta al huevo cantonesa, resbaladizos envoltorios de wonton del sur de China y gruesas masas de dumpling muy apreciadas en Pekín.Cuando la bandera de cinco estrellas de la República Popular China sustituyó a la Union Jack el 1 de julio de 1997, llovió y llovió, y el agua subió rápidamente por Queen’s Road y sus afluentes. Algunos tomaron el diluvio como un presagio del control comunista, otros como un ritual de purificación para limpiar Hong Kong del imperialismo occidental.La tormenta no tuvo mayor significado para To Wo, quien administraba la tienda de fideos con su familia. To seguía trabajando todos los días del año, introduciendo la masa en máquinas ruidosas y vaciando tantos sacos de harina que todo quedaba empolvado de blanco, incluso el santuario del dios de la cocina.“Estaba ocupado”, dijo. “No tenía mucho tiempo para el miedo”.En los 25 años transcurridos desde el traspaso, la única constante ha sido el cambio, tan definido como desafiado por los habitantes de Queen’s Road, la avenida con más historia de Hong Kong. A su alrededor, la ciudad se ha transformado: por la vertiginosa expansión económica de China continental, que amenaza con hacer innecesario esta ciudad portuaria internacional, pero también por el aplastamiento de las libertades por parte de los actuales gobernantes de Hong Kong, que han llenado las cárceles de jóvenes que ahora son presos políticos.A medio camino de 2047, fecha oficial en el que finalizará el periodo  “un país, dos sistemas”, Hong Kong ha entrado en un purgatorio incierto.Para el fabricante de fideos To Wo, la ciudad ofrecía la esperanza de una vida mejor que la que tenía cuando huyó de China.A los 20 años, To escapó de las privaciones del sur de China para instalarse en Queen’s Road, la primera vía construida por los británicos tras tomar Hong Kong como botín de la Guerra del Opio.Bautizada en honor a la reina Victoria, la carretera trazaba la línea costera de una avariciosa potencia colonial. A medida que las instituciones del imperio —bancos, casas comerciales, escuelas, lugares de culto— brotaban a lo largo de ella, Queen’s Road fue evolucionando, y cada afluencia de nuevos habitantes modificaba su carácter. A pesar de la permanencia de los hitos de la calle, sus habitantes estaban menos arraigados, con escaso control sobre el futuro de la ciudad.En 1997, el gobierno chino prometió a Hong Kong una importante autonomía durante 50 años para preservar las libertades que la convirtieron en una capital financiera mundial, por no hablar de una de las metrópolis más emocionantes del planeta.Mientras To ha vivido ahí, Queen’s Road y sus estrechos callejones han sido una encrucijada mundial. Había casas financieras construidas sobre las fortunas del comercio del opio, tiendas de oro que prometían sólidas inversiones a los sobrevivientes de la agitación política, marcas de lujo europeas y comerciantes de aletas de tiburón y hierbas utilizadas en la medicina tradicional china.Rush hour on Queen’s Road Central.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesEn los primeros años tras el traspaso, los legisladores se deleitaron con un poder del que habían carecido durante la mayor parte del gobierno británico, en un edificio diseñado por los arquitectos responsables de una parte del Palacio de Buckingham. En el Tribunal Superior, en un tramo de Queen’s Road llamado Queensway, los jueces usaban pelucas siguiendo la moda británica. La clase empresarial, procedente de la élite de Shanghái, Londres y Bombay, entre otras ciudades, se sentía segura en el imperio de la ley.Durante más de una década, Pekín respetó en gran medida este acuerdo político que rige Hong Kong, llamado “un país, dos sistemas”. La fecha límite de 2047, cuando Pekín tomaría el control político total, parecía convenientemente lejana, aunque los hongkoneses tienen la costumbre de ser prevenidos.Los últimos tres años han comprimido el tiempo. En 2019, millones de manifestantes marcharon por Queen’s Road y otras avenidas, tal y como habían hecho en el pasado para frustrar las impopulares restricciones del gobierno. Esta vez, los enfrentamientos entre la policía y los manifestantes cortaron cualquier filamento de confianza. Durante meses, el gas lacrimógeno, el gas pimienta y las balas de goma envolvieron los centros comerciales. Una ley de seguridad nacional de dos años de antigüedad ha criminalizado la disidencia, y se ha detenido a personas por aplaudir en apoyo de un activista encarcelado.Ahora, a mitad de camino hacia 2047, Hong Kong ha entrado en un purgatorio incierto. Su desaparición ya se ha proclamado antes. En todas esas ocasiones —después de las plagas y los disturbios apoyados por los comunistas, la represión británica y el nerviosismo previo a la entrega— el territorio se ha regenerado.A pesar de la permanencia de los hitos que caracterizan a la avenida, su gente está menos arraigada y tiene poco control sobre el futuro de la ciudad.Queen’s Road fue la primera vía construida por los británicos cuando llegaron, y ha sido una encrucijada mundial durante más de cien años.Una metrópolis que rivaliza con Nueva York, Tokio o Londres no desaparecerá de la noche a la mañana. Pero la promesa de Pekín de mantener la ciudad en una campana de cristal política durante 50 años se ha hecho añicos. Los pobres de Hong Kong son cada vez más pobres, y el número de personas que se apresuran a marcharse ha aumentado.Los cambios sísmicos en Hong Kong están obligando a los residentes a reflexionar sobre lo que significa ser de este lugar en constante evolución. A lo largo de Queen’s Road —la avenida más antigua de una ciudad programada para reinventarse— esta cuestión de identidad resuena de forma muy diferente para un político, un manifestante y un fabricante de fideos.“Todo ha cambiado en Hong Kong”, dijo To. “Todos tenemos destinos diferentes”.‘Enfrentar la realidad’El 30 de junio de 1997, mientras sonaba por última vez “God Save the Queen”, Eunice Yung, entonces estudiante de secundaria, estaba enfurruñada en su casa, en un apartamento de Queen’s Road. Sus decepcionantes resultados en los exámenes, que le impedían obtener un cupo universitario en Hong Kong, ocupaban su mente.“Cuando pienso en el traspaso, me quedo en blanco”, dijo Yung. “Es una pena”.Al igual que muchos niños nacidos de inmigrantes recientes, Yung comenzó a trabajar cuando tenía 4 o 5 años, sentada con su bisabuela en una mesa, haciendo estallar discos de metal en la parte posterior de imanes de juguete. Cuando caminaba a su escuela católica, pasaba por los mercados de Queen’s Road, donde se vendían mariscos secos, y por un templo al que los pescadores acudían a rendir culto en barco, antes de que las obras de recuperación empujaran la avenida tierra adentro.Eunice Yung distribuyendo regalos del Día del Padre a sus electores. “En Hong Kong tenemos que enfrentar la realidad de que somos parte de China”.Los cambios sísmicos en Hong Kong están obligando a los residentes a reflexionar sobre lo que significa ser de este lugar en constante evolución.Yung terminó por encontrar cupo universitario en Vancouver para estudiar computación. Sin saberlo, se unió a la corriente de hongkoneses que emigraban por miedo a los nuevos gobernantes del territorio.Después de cada paroxismo en China —la caída de la dinastía Qing, la toma del poder por los comunistas, la Revolución Cultural, la masacre de Tiananmen— la población de Hong Kong se llenó de refugiados. Los años que precedieron al traspaso de poderes, cuando cientos de miles de personas huyeron a Occidente en busca de seguridad, fueron el único momento, hasta ahora, en que la población disminuyó.Yung no estaba en Canadá porque tuviera miedo por Hong Kong. Regresó a su país, se licenció en Derecho y compareció en los tribunales de Queensway. En 2016, ganó un escaño en el Consejo Legislativo como miembro de una fuerza política pro-Pekín.Yung, de 45 años, ha criticado las obras de arte en los museos financiados por el gobierno que desprecian al Partido Comunista Chino. Dijo que la ridiculización pública de los líderes chinos es el resultado de que “la gente perdió la cabeza”.En el museo M+. “En vez de expresarnos sin límites, debemos defender la dignidad de nuestro país”, dijo Yung, la funcionaria.Desde 2019, la ciudad se ha dividido entre los que apoyaron a los manifestantes y los que temían que se estuviera destruyendo la reputación favorable para los negocios de Hong Kong.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York Times“Algunos de los medios de comunicación extranjeros dicen que ‘China es siempre una cosa monstruosa, y que estás bajo su control y no tienes libertad’”, dijo Yung. “Pero en Hong Kong tenemos que enfrentar la realidad de que somos parte de China”.Sin pruebas, los políticos a favor de Pekín han acusado a quienes se unieron a las protestas de estar en connivencia con la Agencia Central de Inteligencia. La temible ley de seguridad ha llevado a los sindicatos y a los periódicos a cerrar por miedo a penas de prisión perpetua. Casi 50 políticos y activistas por la democracia han sido encarcelados en virtud de las nuevas normas. Comparecerán ante el Tribunal Superior de Queensway a finales de este año.En la actualidad, no hay protestas masivas en Queen’s Road ni en ningún otro lugar de Hong Kong.Queen’s Road West in the evening.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York Times“Creo que Hong Kong sigue siendo una ciudad muy libre”, dijo Yung. “Este tipo de manifestaciones, si las permitimos hasta cierto punto, dañarán nuestros sentimientos hacia nuestro país”.Hong Kong se ha dividido entre los que apoyaron a los manifestantes y los que se preocuparon por la destrucción de la reputación favorable a los negocios de Hong Kong. En 2019, HSBC, el banco más venerable de Hong Kong y uno de los primeros parangones de la globalización, fue acusado de cerrar una cuenta vinculada al financiamiento participativo pro democracia. Los manifestantes salpicaron con pintura roja los leones gigantes que custodian la sede del banco en Queen’s Road.Hong Kong no desaparecerá de la noche a la mañana. Pero la promesa de Pekín de mantener a la ciudad en una campana de cristal política durante 50 años se ha hecho añicos.En la actualidad no hay protestas masivas en Queen’s Road ni en ningún otro lugar de Hong Kong.“Cuando la gente le enseña a sus hijos a faltarle el respeto a su país, a decirles que vamos a derrocar a nuestro gobierno, eso hace daño”, dijo Yung. “En vez de expresarnos sin límites, debemos defender la dignidad de nuestro país”.‘Cuestionar nuestra identidad’El 1 de julio de 2019, el aniversario del traspaso, cientos de miles de residentes de Hong Kong se reunieron para una marcha a favor de la democracia a lo largo de Queen’s Road. Había familias de clase media con termos de agua, pensionistas en camiseta y estudiantes con paraguas amarillos que simbolizaban el movimiento de protesta.Separándose de la multitud, Brian Leung se desvió por una calle lateral que llevaba al nuevo edificio del Consejo Legislativo, uniéndose a otros manifestantes que ocultaban su identidad con máscaras. Asediaron el edificio, rompieron cristales, retorcieron las puertas metálicas y garabatearon grafitis contra el partido comunista.Mientras la policía se acercaba, Leung se subió a una mesa, se quitó la máscara y pronunció un manifiesto democrático. Fue el único manifestante que dio la cara.Oficiales de policía frente al Parque Victoria en el aniversario de la masacre de la Plaza de Tiananmen. En años anteriores, grandes multitudes se reunieron en el parque para conmemorar ese día.Una imagen de teléfono celular de una vela encendida y números que conmemoran el aniversario de la masacre de la Plaza de Tiananmen, que comenzó hace 33 años el 4 de junio.Hijo de migrantes chinos que nunca terminó la secundaria, Leung, que ahora tiene 28 años, es un ejemplo de la promesa de Hong Kong. Creció en una vivienda pública y fue el primer miembro de su familia en asistir a la Universidad de Hong Kong.Era una época en la que muchos jóvenes de Hong Kong se sentían orgullosos de su doble identidad: chinos, sí, pero de un tipo especial que apreciaba el derecho consuetudinario británico y los pasteles de nata de origen portugués.Cuando Pekín celebró los Juegos Olímpicos de verano en 2008, Leung animó a los equipos de Hong Kong y de China.“Creo que todos queríamos darle una oportunidad a China, y pensamos que con la vuelta a la madre patria, en Hong Kong podríamos formar parte de aquella gran nación”, dijo.La sociedad civil de Hong Kong, impulsada por la juventud, marcó la diferencia. Un grupo de adolescentes ayudó a convencer al gobierno de que archivara un plan de estudios pro-Pekín.Las marchas del verano de 2019, al igual que un plantón estudiantil cinco años antes, tuvieron un desenlace más doloroso. La policía respondió a los manifestantes sin líderes con una fuerza cada vez mayor, deteniendo a miles de adolescentes. Para cuando la pandemia de coronavirus restringió las concentraciones en 2020, una quietud había caído sobre Hong Kong.An intersection on Queensway..En la actualidad, solamente el dos por ciento de los jóvenes de Hong Kong se consideran “chinos”, según una encuesta local. Más de tres cuartas partes se identifican como “hongkoneses”. Hay orgullo en el cantonés, el patois de Hong Kong, en lugar del mandarín del continente.“Cuando quedó claro que China ya no estaba interesada en las reformas liberales, empezamos a cuestionar nuestra identidad como chinos”, dijo Leung, que editó una colección de ensayos llamada Hong Kong Nationalism. “Empezamos a pensar: ‘somos hongkoneses’”.Para los millones de personas que huyeron de la agitación en China, Hong Kong sirvió durante más de un siglo como refugio, pero también como estación de paso hacia un lugar mejor. Con el tiempo, la transitoriedad de Hong Kong se asentó. El territorio se convirtió en el hogar de millones de chinos, muchos de los cuales adoptaron nombres occidentales para facilitar la burocracia británica: Kelvin y Fiona, Gladys y Alvin, Brian y Eunice.​​Ahora, Hong Kong se está deshaciendo de sus residentes. En un mes de este año, salieron del aeropuerto tantas personas como las que emigraron a Hong Kong en todo 2019. Las continuas restricciones por el coronavirus hacen que casi nadie venga. Muchos de los activistas que no están en prisión están en el exilio. Taxistas, contadores y profesores se han marchado a nuevas vidas en el extranjero.Después de cada paroxismo en China —la caída de la dinastía Qing, la toma del poder por los comunistas, la Revolución Cultural, la masacre de Tiananmen— la población de Hong Kong se llenó de refugiados.Ahora, la ciudad se está deshaciendo de sus residentes. En un mes de este año, salieron del aeropuerto tantas personas como las que emigraron a Hong Kong en todo 2019.Horas después de que la policía desalojara el Consejo Legislativo con gases lacrimógenos en julio de 2019, Leung abandonó Hong Kong, con el corazón acelerado mientras el avión se elevaba en el aire.“No pude contener las lágrimas”, dijo Leung, que ahora vive en Estados Unidos. “Quiero mucho a Hong Kong. Por eso luché por ella y por eso tuve que irme”.No ha vuelto desde entonces.‘Ese era mi destino’To, el fabricante de fideos, arriesgó su vida para escapar de China en 1978. Se entrenó durante más de un año, perfeccionando su natación y aumentando su volumen para la caminata a través de las colinas. Su primera tentativa fracasó. En la segunda, las lluvias llenaron de hongos los pasteles de luna empaquetados para el viaje. Finalmente, tras siete noches en los bosques, vio a Hong Kong al otro lado del agua.“Nadamos hacia la luz”, dijo.Para los millones de personas que huyeron de la agitación en China, Hong Kong sirvió durante más de un siglo como refugio, pero también como estación de paso hacia un lugar mejor.Era una época en la que muchos jóvenes de Hong Kong se sentían orgullosos de su doble identidad: chinos, sí, pero de un tipo especial que apreciaba el derecho consuetudinario británico y los pasteles de nata de origen portugués.Queen’s Road deslumbró a To con sus coloridos carteles que anunciaban todo tipo de delicias: abulón y té blanco agujas de plata, whisky escocés y pasteles de crema.La China que había dejado era desesperadamente pobre. Sólo en dos ocasiones durante su infancia se sintió completamente lleno. Cuando la hermana de su esposa visitaba a su familia en China, hacía equilibrios con cañas de bambú cargadas de jarras de aceite de cocina sobre los hombros y se ponía varias capas de ropa para repartir entre sus parientes.Hoy en día, en algunas zonas de Guangdong, la provincia del sur de China vecina de Hong Kong, el auge económico más rápido y sostenido del mundo ha elevado el nivel de vida por encima del de algunos habitantes de la antigua colonia británica. A lo largo de Queen’s Road, los alquileres abusivos y la ralentización de los negocios han hecho que las familias de artesanos tengan que abandonar sus antiguas tiendas.A market on Queen’s Road East.To ya superó la edad de jubilación en China. Su hijo, To Tak-tai, de 35 años, se hará cargo algún día de la tienda de fideos, rezando al mismo dios de la cocina cubierto de harina.A diferencia de sus padres, él nació en Hong Kong. No piensa en irse.“Hong Kong es el hogar”, dice.Por ahora, To trabaja día tras día, alimentando las máquinas de hacer fideos. Hong Kong tiene una red de seguridad social irregular. No recuerda la última vez que disfrutó de unas buenas vacaciones.To vive con su familia en un estrecho apartamento, pero ha construido una mansión de seis pisos en su pueblo natal de Guangdong. Sus hermanos, que nunca salieron de China, viven cómodamente de las pensiones estatales. Él también sueña con jubilarse allí.“En Hong Kong, si no trabajo, no tengo nada”, dijo To, con el torso desnudo y las pestañas escarchadas de harina. “Pero venir a Hong Kong, ese era mi destino”.El lema de un cartel que dice: “Celebrando la entrega. Mano a mano. Comenzando un nuevo capítulo”.Tiffany May More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: Europe Recalculates on Ukraine

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      Plus the Jan. 6 hearings continue and truckers in South Korea strike.Good morning. We’re covering Europe’s recalculation on Ukraine, revelations from the Jan. 6 hearings and a trucker strike in South Korea.This bridge once connected the cities of Lysychansk and Sievierodonetsk.Ivor Prickett for The New York TimesEurope recalculates as Russia gainsAs Russia advances in the east, European leaders are under mounting pressure to forge a cohesive strategy to outline what might constitute Ukrainian victory — or Russian defeat.European leaders say that it is up to Ukraine to decide how and when to enter negotiations to end the war. They have all provided significant financial and military support to Ukraine, which has continued to press for more weapons.But some European allies are increasingly nervous about a long war. They do not want to bring NATO into direct conflict with Russia — and they do not want to provoke President Vladimir Putin to use nuclear or chemical weapons. Here are recent updates.What’s next: Yesterday, word emerged that the leaders of France, Germany and Italy planned to visit Kyiv, perhaps as early as this week.Fighting: Ukraine is outgunned and running out of Soviet-era ammunition in the east. Russian forces are poised to take Sievierodonetsk, the last major city in the Luhansk region. Moscow is now closing in on neighboring Lysychansk.Death: The burned corpse of one Russian fighter is still in the military vehicle where he died. “Two weeks later still he sits, his last thoughts gone from his skull, cracked open and wet from the rain,” my colleague Thomas Gibbons-Neff writes, reflecting on this war and his time as a U.S. Marine.Asia: Ukraine’s stubborn resistance has made Taiwan rethink its own military strategy.Committee members shared testimony yesterday.Doug Mills/The New York TimesTrump was ‘detached from reality’The House committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol continued to conduct hearings yesterday. One after another, members of Donald Trump’s inner circle testified that they told the former president that his claims of widespread election fraud were bogus. But Trump pushed the lie anyway.William Barr, the former attorney general, said in a recorded deposition that Trump had grown delusional. Barr said that in the weeks after the 2020 election, he repeatedly told Trump “how crazy some of these allegations were.”Better Understand the Russia-Ukraine WarDig Deeper: Understand the history of the relationship between Russia and Ukraine, the causes of the conflict and the weapons that are being used.Outside Pressures: Governments, sports organizations and businesses are taking steps to punish Russia. Here are some of the sanctions adopted so far and a list of companies that have pulled out of the country.Stay Updated: To receive the latest updates on the war in your inbox, sign up here. The Times has also launched a Telegram channel to make its journalism more accessible around the world.“He’s become detached from reality if he really believes this stuff,” Barr said, speaking of Trump. “There was never an indication of interest in what the actual facts were.”Resources: Here are four takeaways from yesterday’s hearings and five takeaways from the first day of hearings last week. The next hearing is scheduled for tomorrow at 10 a.m. Eastern (that’s 10 p.m. in Hong Kong).Analysis: The committee is trying to make the case that Trump knew his claims of a fraudulent election were not true. Barr’s testimony suggests another explanation: Trump actually came to believe his own lies.Finances: The committee said that Trump had used lies about fraud to raise hundreds of millions of dollars. The big lie was also a “big rip-off,” a committee member said.The truckers have disrupted life in South Korea.Yonhap/Agence France-Presse, via Getty ImagesTruckers in South Korea strikeA truck-driver strike in South Korea stretched into a seventh day yesterday, forcing the country’s manufacturers to scale back production and slowing traffic at its ports.The union representing the truckers said it asked repeatedly for safer conditions and reasonable fares. The truckers are protesting surging fuel prices and demanding minimum pay guarantees, Reuters reported. One trucker told Reuters that he earns about $2,300 a month, and that his monthly fuel bill had increased by about $1,000 since April.That strike is proving costly for South Korea’s economy and leading to widespread domestic delays: Over the first six days, it has resulted in production and shipment disruptions for automobiles, steel and petrochemicals worth 1.6 trillion won (about $1.25 billion), the government said.Global context: The strike may further disrupt the battered global supply chain. But so far, The Associated Press reported, the country hasn’t reported any major disruption of key exports.What’s next: Yesterday, the truckers said they may escalate disruptions if demands are not met, Reuters reported, including stopping shipments of coal to a power plant. THE LATEST NEWSAsiaThe Japanese yen is approaching its lowest point in two decades, The Wall Street Journal reported.Beijing is racing to control a coronavirus outbreak linked to a 24-hour bar, Reuters reported.Chinese police arrested nine people on suspicion of assault after footage of an attack against women at a restaurant went viral, The Associated Press reported.World NewsPolice officers and rescue team searched for Dom Phillips and Bruno Pereira this weekend.Bruno Kelly/ReutersPolice found the belongings of a British journalist and a Brazilian expert on Indigenous peoples who disappeared in the Amazon after receiving threats.Global stocks tumbled after U.S. stocks fell into a bear market yesterday, a 20 percent decline from January. Here are live updates.Iraq faces political chaos: Dozens of members of Parliament resigned under the direction of a powerful Shiite cleric, threatening the formation of a new government.Michelle Bachelet, the U.N.’s top human-rights official, said she would not seek a second term. The announcement followed her widely-criticized visit to China.Iran suspects Israel fatally poisoned two scientists, which could escalate the shadow war between the two countries.EuropeThe Grenfell Tower burning in 2017.Daniel Leal-Olivas/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFive years ago today, 72 people died in the Grenfell Tower fire in London. Their families are still looking for answers and accountability.A court cleared the way for Britain’s controversial plan to resettle immigrants in Rwanda. Flights are planned to begin today.French centrists appeared to have maintained a majority in the first round of parliamentary elections, a victory for President Emmanuel Macron.What Else Is HappeningPresident Jair Bolsonaro has consistently questioned Brazil’s electoral process, despite little evidence of past fraud. Now, the military has joined him.A new study found that smokers lost their nicotine craving after suffering a stroke or other brain injury, which may reveal the neural underpinnings of addiction.SpaceX won approval to launch a giant new rocket to orbit, which could eventually travel to Mars.A Morning ReadHigh inflation, especially in food prices, has hurt Indians who work in the informal sector.Manjunath Kiran/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIndia’s economy is growing quickly: Exports are at record highs and profits of publicly traded companies have doubled. But India can’t produce enough jobs, a sign of its uneven growth and widening inequality.ARTS AND IDEASArt as collectiveDocumenta, arguably the world’s largest exhibition of contemporary art, opens later this month in Kassel, Germany. It will run for 100 days and host nearly one million visitors.Ruangrupa, a radical Indonesian creative collective, is directing the 15th edition of Documenta. The group has long spurned the idea of art as object, and instead turns social experiences into art.For their sole solo gallery exhibition, ruangrupa threw a party and left the detritus as the exhibition. Some artists were skeptical it was art. “We told them: ‘You felt energetic and inspired. You met your friends. That’s the art,’” one member said.At Documenta, they will work with 14 other collectives and their colleagues to experiment with the idea of the lumbung, the common rice store traditionally found in Indonesian villages, built and shared by everyone. “It’s not just that they don’t create tangible objects, they don’t even create intangible experiences,” Samanth Subramanian writes in The Times Magazine, adding, “Instead of collaborating to make art, ruangrupa propagates the art of collaboration. It’s a collective that teaches collectivity.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookKelly Marshall for The New York TimesThis spicy shrimp masala draws inspiration from Goa and Karachi.What to WatchStream these five science fiction movies.InterviewTom Hanks spoke to The Times about his new Elvis movie, his faith in America and the long arc of his career.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Furry foot (Three letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Ben Hubbard, who has doggedly covered the Middle East, will be our next Istanbul bureau chief.The latest episode of “The Daily” is U.S. intelligence gaps in the war in Ukraine.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More