Elder, Larry (1952- )

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      The California Recall Election Is Tomorrow. Here’s Where Things Stand.

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      Democrats have cast more than twice as many ballots as Republicans so far.Gov. Gavin Newsom made a campaign stop in Oakland on Saturday.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesIn fewer than 48 hours, we’ll most likely know who is going to be running the nation’s most populous state next year.In case you need a refresher: On Tuesday evening, polls close in the election that asks Californians whether Gov. Gavin Newsom should be removed from office and, if so, who should replace him. If Newsom is recalled, the person who takes his seat would serve the remainder of his term, set to end in January 2023.It probably goes without saying, but this election is a big deal.Newsom’s possible ouster is only the fourth recall of a governor to make the ballot in U.S. history. It has the potential to put a Republican at the helm of a heavily Democratic state that hasn’t elected a Republican governor since 2006. And the election, as I’m sure you haven’t forgotten, comes as our state is grappling with a pandemic, historic drought, housing crisis and much more.Here’s where things stand on election eve:Newsom’s lead in the polls appears to be growingFor Newsom to keep his job, more than half of voters must mark “no” on the question of whether he should be recalled from office.As of Sunday evening, a polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight showed 56 percent of Californians opposing the recall and 42 percent supporting it. An average compiled by RealClearPolitics was almost identical.Newsom’s significant lead may be somewhat surprising if you remember how close the race appeared just a few months ago.In July, a poll by The Los Angeles Times and the University of California, Berkeley, found a near 50-50 split on the recall among likely voters. When that same group released new data Friday, 60 percent of likely voters opposed recalling Newsom, more than 21 percentage points higher than the fraction that wanted to oust him.How Newsom probably got aheadSo what changed?Democrats started paying attention. Before ballots arrived in mailboxes last month and polling began to suggest that Newsom might actually lose his job, many liberals probably assumed that the election was a long shot and that they could skip voting.Registered Democrats outnumber Republicans in California nearly two-to-one, so the biggest threat to Newsom is Democrats not turning out to vote in big enough numbers to counteract Republican enthusiasm for the ouster.But over the past two months, Newsom has been hammering home the idea that he is all that stands between Californians and Trumpism. The governor’s message is that everything that terrified California liberals about the last president is on the ballot, from vaccine resistance to climate denial, as my colleague Shawn Hubler reports.His argument has been aided by the emergence of the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, who once called the election of Donald Trump “divine intervention,” as the front-runner vying to take his job.Newsom has also benefited from more than $70 million in campaign contributions, much of it collected in July and August, which has allowed him to out-advertise his opponents in recent weeks.Mail-in ballots being processed in Pomona last week.Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhat we know about the returns so farIn this election, as with last year’s, all of the state’s 22 million-plus registered voters were sent mail-in ballots.So although the polls don’t close until tomorrow, 35 percent of registered voters already cast their ballots as of Sunday evening, according to an election tracker from Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of voter information.Nearly 4.1 million registered Democrats have mailed in their ballots, compared with 1.9 million Republicans and 1.8 million independents, the data shows.It’s unclear how much those figures will shift in the coming days. There are still ballots in the mail, and many Republicans may wait to vote in person.Some political experts predict that turnout may surpass 50 percent of registered voters, roughly double what’s typically expected for a special election.Paul Mitchell, vice president at Political Data Inc., told The New York Times that if 60 percent of Californians cast their ballots, “it’s almost mathematically impossible for Newsom to lose.”The biggest question, for both sides then, is whether we’ll cross that threshold.For more:Have a question about the recall? The Times has answers.We’ve gotten a lot of email inquiries about what would happen if Newsom resigned before Election Day. My colleague Jill Cowan has that story.In some places in California, there is more than one recall on the ballot. Read more from The Times about other recall efforts.Chuck Lindahl at his home in Chester. In Northern California, a region troubled by fire, many people with disabilities live in areas that lack resources to support them during disasters.Christian Monterrosa for The New York TimesThe rest of the newsstatewide news“We didn’t have a plan”: As wildfires rage across California, rural communities are struggling to ensure the safety of older people as well as those with disabilities.College admissions scandal: Opening statements begin on Monday for the first parents to face trial in a sweeping college admissions case that exposed the role that money plays in the fight for seats at brand-name schools. The first two parents facing trial tried to get their children into the University of Southern California.Loitering for prostitution: The police in California would no longer be able to arrest anyone for loitering with the intent to engage in prostitution under a bill approved by state lawmakers on Friday, reports The Associated Press.Assisted death law: California lawmakers moved to extend and streamline the state’s physician-assisted suicide law, reducing the time terminal patients must wait to acquire the fatal drugs, according to The Associated Press.Other new laws: California lawmakers finished their work for the 2021 legislative session on Friday night. The Associated Press offers a guide on what bills passed, including a bill to decriminalize jaywalking and another requiring ethnic studies in high school.SOUTHERN CALIFORNIAFire shuts down highway: A fire erupted Saturday afternoon in northern Los Angeles County that prompted officials to shut down a section of Interstate 5, The Associated Press reports.Reinforcing coastal bluffs: Construction begins this month on a nearly 300-foot-long sea wall to protect the coastal bluffs below the heavily traveled railroad tracks in Del Mar in San Diego County, reports The San Diego Union-Tribune.Unvaccinated couple dies of Covid: An Inland Empire family is left reeling after a father of five dies of Covid-19 just weeks after his wife, KTLA reports.Joining the military: As part of a Sept. 11 memorial ceremony at the Nixon Library, five young men took the U.S. Army Oath of Service to join the military.Vaccine mandate: West Hollywood city officials have announced that people must show proof of vaccination against Covid-19 to enter restaurants, bars, gyms and other businesses with indoor operations, according to The Los Angeles Times.CENTRAL CALIFORNIAWildfires: Multiple wildfires started by a recent lightning storm continued to grow in steep, difficult-to-reach areas of Sequoia National Park and were zero percent contained as of Sunday afternoon, according to The Fresno Bee.Lack of drinking water: Two Fresno County towns with no drinking water are drowning in debt while hope fades for a new well, reports The Fresno Bee.NORTHERN CALIFORNIAFirst transgender bishop: The Evangelical Lutheran Church in America installed its first openly transgender bishop in a service held in San Francisco’s Grace Cathedral over the weekend, according to The Associated Press.Coronavirus: Mayor Darrell Steinberg of Sacramento has tested positive for Covid-19, reports The Sacramento Bee.Patrick’s Point State Park: The long-contested name of the popular Northern California state park may soon change for good, SFGATE reports.Bryan Gardner for The New York TimesWhat we’re eatingThis one-pot orzo with tomatoes, corn and zucchini is inspired by the bountiful produce of late summer.Where we’re travelingToday’s California travel tip comes from Rebecca Fahrlander, a reader who lives in Bellevue, Neb. Rebecca writes:One of my favorite destinations in the Golden State is Shelter Island in San Diego. I stay at Humphrey’s, a great concert venue and beach hotel all in one. I have traveled there many summers to hear my favorite rock groups such as The Moody Blues in concert, right next to the Pacific Ocean; to walk along the coast, and take in all that is wonderful about SoCal.Tell us about your favorite places to visit in California. Please include your name and where you live, so we can share your tip in the newsletter. Email your suggestions to CAtoday@nytimes.com.Cole HockenburyAnd before you go, some good newsThe bride and groom wore wet suits to their wedding. Hers was white, and his was painted to look like a tuxedo.The couple, who met in Los Angeles in 2018, decided against a more common ceremony on the beach and instead opted for an ocean wedding. Like, in the Pacific Ocean.The groom is a surfer and being in the water “connected us to something greater,” the bride told The Times. Plus, it was free.So last month, the couple bobbed on surfboards off Hermosa Beach and exchanged vows and silicon rings.The groom told The Times: “The fish were jumping, the dolphin popped up; it was like they were our guests celebrating with us.”Thanks for reading. I’ll be back tomorrow. — SoumyaP.S. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Where there’s …. (5 letters).Miles McKinley and Briana Scalia contributed to California Today. You can reach the team at CAtoday@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      False Election Claims in California Reveal a New Normal for G.O.P.

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      In an echo of 2020, Republicans are pushing baseless allegations of cheating in the state’s recall race even before Election Day.The results of the California recall election won’t be known until Tuesday night. But some Republicans are already predicting victory for the Democrat, Gov. Gavin Newsom, for a reason that should sound familiar.Voter fraud.Soon after the recall race was announced in early July, the embers of 2020 election denialism ignited into new false claims on right-wing news sites and social media channels. This vote, too, would supposedly be “stolen,” with malfeasance ranging from deceptively designed ballots to nefariousness by corrupt postal workers.As a wave of recent polling indicated that Mr. Newsom was likely to brush off his Republican challengers, the baseless allegations accelerated. Larry Elder, a leading Republican candidate, said he was “concerned” about election fraud. The Fox News commentators Tomi Lahren and Tucker Carlson suggested that wrongdoing was the only way Mr. Newsom could win. And former President Donald J. Trump predicted that it would be “a rigged election.”This swift embrace of false allegations of cheating in the California recall reflects a growing instinct on the right to argue that any lost election, or any ongoing race that might result in defeat, must be marred by fraud. The relentless falsehoods spread by Mr. Trump and his allies about the 2020 election have only fueled such fears.“I very honestly believe there were irregularities and fraudulent activity,” Elena Johnson, 65, a teacher in Los Angeles County who was in the crowd at a rally for Mr. Elder last week in Ventura County, said of the presidential contest last year. “It was stolen.”Because of her concerns about voter fraud in the 2020 election, Ms. Johnson said, she would be casting her ballot in person on Tuesday instead of by mail. She said she was supporting the Republican because she thought California, her adopted home after immigrating from the Philippines 40 years ago, was on the brink. “California is where I came, and California is where I want to stay,” she said.Since the start of the recall, allegations of election fraud have been simmering on social media in California, with daily mentions in the low thousands, according to a review by Zignal Labs, a media tracking agency.But singular claims or conspiracy theories, such as a selectively edited video purporting to show that people with a post office “master key” could steal ballots, have quickly ricocheted around the broader conservative ecosystem. The post office video surpassed one million views, amplified by high-profile Trump allies and members of the conservative news media.Nationally, Republican candidates who deny the outcomes of their elections remain outliers. Hundreds of G.O.P. candidates up and down the ballot in 2020 accepted their defeats. But at the same time, many of them joined Mr. Trump in the assault on the presidential race’s outcome, and in other recent election cycles, candidates, their allies and the conservative news media have increasingly expressed doubts about the validity of the electoral process.And while false claims of wrongdoing have long emerged in the days and weeks after elections, Republicans’ quick turn in advance of the California recall — a race that was always going to be a long shot for them in a deep-blue state — signals the growing normalization of crying fraud.“This is baked into the playbook now,” said Michael Latner, an associate professor of political science at California Polytechnic Institute. As soon as the recall was official, he added, “you already started to see stories and individuals on social media claiming that, you know, they received five ballots or their uncle received five ballots.”Some Republican leaders and strategists around the country worry that it is a losing message. While such claims may stoke up the base, leaders fear that repeatedly telling voters that the election is rigged and their votes will not count could have a suppressive effect, leading some potential Republican voters to stay home.Republican officials have tried to encourage their voters to vote by mail while also acknowledging their worries about fraud.Rich Pedroncelli/Associated PressThey point to the Senate runoff elections early this year in Georgia, where two Republican incumbents, Senators Kelly Loeffler and David Perdue, were ousted by first-time Democratic challengers. Though the state had just voted Democratic in the presidential election for the first time in decades, the Senate races were seen as an even taller task for Democrats.But in the months after the November general election, Mr. Trump fired off countless attacks against the legitimacy of the Georgia contests, floating conspiracy theories and castigating the Republican secretary of state and governor for not acquiescing to his desire to subvert the presidential election. When the runoffs came, more than 752,000 Georgians who had voted in November did not cast ballots, according to a review by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution. More than half of those voters were from constituencies that lean toward Republican candidates, the review found.“The person that they most admired in their conservative beliefs was telling them that their vote didn’t count,” said Lt. Gov. Geoff Duncan of Georgia, a Republican, referring to Mr. Trump. “And then the next day he would tell him that the election was rigged, and then the next day he would tell them, ‘Why even show up?’ And they didn’t. And that alone was enough to swing the election to the Democrat side.”“This whole notion about fraud and elections,” Mr. Duncan continued, “it’s a shiny object that quite honestly is about trying to save face and not own reality.”Republican officials in California have performed a balancing act, trying to acknowledge their voters’ worries about fraud while ensuring that the same voters trust the state’s vote-by-mail system enough to cast a ballot. Party officials have promoted mail voting on social media, and have leaned on popular members of Republican leadership, including Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the minority leader, to cut videos preaching the security of voting by mail.But some leading Republicans in the state have simultaneously denounced a bill passed by the State Legislature this month that would permanently enact a mail voting expansion that was introduced as an emergency measure in 2020. Republicans in the Legislature have continued to baselessly claim that mail voting invites fraud and that drop boxes remain unsecure.“I can tell you story after story in my district,” State Senator Shannon Grove, a Republican from Bakersfield, said during a floor debate this month. She added that the Democrats who dominate the chamber would admit they had also heard complaints “if you guys were honest.”The state Republican Party has also ramped up what it calls an election integrity operation, which aims to recruit more poll watchers and is directing voters to a hotline to send in complaints of fraud. The program, according to Jessica Millan Patterson, the chair of the state party, was designed to assure voters that the California election would be secure.Larry Elder has changed his position on whether he thought President Biden won the election fairly.Allison Zaucha for The New York Times“My entire focus,” Ms. Patterson said in an interview, “is to build trust and faith within our process and make sure people are confident.” She added that she was not paying attention to the national conversation about voter fraud and that she was not worried about the Republican effort hurting turnout because “our No. 1 turnout operation is having Gavin Newsom as our governor every day.”“I’ve always focused on California; everything outside of that is noise,” Ms. Patterson said. “We have to fix our own house before we can worry about what’s going on at the national level.”Mr. Elder, the Republican challenger to Mr. Newsom who has claimed without evidence that there will be “shenanigans” in the voting process, has also set up a tip line for voters to offer evidence of fraud.Trump’s Bid to Subvert the ElectionCard 1 of 4A monthslong campaign. 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      Newsom Gets Backing From Many Newspaper Editorial Boards

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      Despite a concerted effort from conservatives to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom of California, most newspaper editorials in the state continue to endorse him and are strongly recommending not to vote him out of office. Many publications across the state are asking readers to overlook Mr. Newsom’s shortcomings and focus on his legislative agenda and his overall leadership during the pandemic.The editorial board of The Los Angeles Times, the largest newspaper in the state, said that replacing Mr. Newsom with “an untested and unprepared alternative who wouldn’t represent the values of most Californians” would be disastrous.The paper acknowledged Newsom’s “missteps” — including issuing rigid public health mandates during the pandemic but then being photographed dining unmasked with a large group — but called these minor compared with “the good he has done for California as one of the nation’s strongest leaders on the COVID-19 pandemic.”The San Francisco Chronicle similarly urged its readers to vote on the recall “with a resounding no.” The editorial board echoed a similar argument that, while he has not been perfect, Mr. Newsom is better than the alternative.“It’s true that the governor managed the pandemic unevenly and imposed precautions inconsistently even as he violated their spirit with his infamous French Laundry soiree,” its editorial board wrote, referring to the restaurant where the governor dined unmasked. The board added that the state still “has weathered the crisis better than the nation.”In San Jose, the editorial board of The Mercury News slammed Larry Elder, a conservative talk radio host who is running, stating that he “has zero experience in elected office and is a Donald Trump clone who would impose his right-wing, extremist views on California in every way possible.”The Sacramento Bee, in also discouraging Mr. Newsom’s removal, stated that the governor’s three strongest potential replacements: Mr. Elder, along with Kevin Faulconer, a former mayor of San Diego, and the businessman John Cox are all “shamefully uninformed and unqualified.”The Orange County Register, one of the few conservative-leaning publications in the state with an editorial board, came out in support of the recall, questioning Mr. Newsom’s management of issues like wildfires and education.The paper championed Mr. Elder as the obvious pick — and said that its stance on a recall was less about the governor’s handling of the pandemic and more about a series of concerns including increased rates of homelessness, crime and poverty.“Our problem with Newsom’s leadership is more fundamental,” it wrote. “Pick an issue and the state’s failures are obvious.” More

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      La estrategia del gobernador de California frente a la revocatoria: ‘Gavin Newsom contra el abismo’

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      Conforme se acerca la votación en la que podría ser destituido, el gobernador invoca a una figura familiar de la política estadounidense: el expresidente Donald Trump.SACRAMENTO — A medida que la campaña para destituirlo llega a su último fin de semana, el gobernador de California, Gavin Newsom, está insistiendo en la opción que ha presentado a los votantes desde el comienzo del proceso para la revocatoria: o Donald Trump o él.“Derrotamos a Trump el año pasado, y gracias, pero no hemos derrotado al trumpismo”, ha repetido el gobernador durante las dos últimas semanas en un bombardeo de recorridos de campaña y llamadas por Zoom. Desde la resistencia a las vacunas hasta el negacionismo climático, dice, todo lo que aterrorizaba a los liberales californianos sobre el último presidente está en la papeleta. Y mucho más que su propio futuro personal pende de un hilo: “Es una cuestión de vida o muerte”.Sus oponentes lo cuestionan. El gobernador, dicen, es el problema, y la destitución nunca habría llegado a unas elecciones si una masa crítica del estado no se hubiera resentido por sus restricciones pandémicas a las empresas y las aulas, incluso cuando sus propias finanzas estaban seguras y sus hijos recibían instrucción en persona. El expresidente, señalan, no es candidato. “Newsom es un alarmista”, tuiteó recientemente David Sacks, un capitalista de riesgo de Silicon Valley que apoya la destitución.Solo tres gobernadores se han enfrentado a votaciones de destitución en Estados Unidos antes que Newsom, y él —y el poder demócrata— está haciendo todo lo posible por presentar el esfuerzo como una toma de poder radical, con algunos partidarios incluso comparándolo en un momento dado con el violento intento del 6 de enero de bloquear la elección del presidente Joe Biden.Al invocar a Trump como su oponente de elección, Newsom está retomando un mensaje que ha usado en el pasado para mitigar las críticas de manera efectiva, mientras que también está probando una estrategia que es probable que se replique entre los demócratas que buscan movilizar a los votantes en las elecciones intermedias en todo el país el próximo año.En efecto, el líder que los californianos eligieron por abrumadora mayoría en 2018 no se postula siguiendo las políticas demócratas de un demócrata que busca reelegirse tanto como atendiendo un llamado a la acción urgente, aunque conocido, contra una amenaza existencial a los valores del estado azul.Las encuestas sugieren que Newsom está siendo convincente, y se ha adelantado a sus oponentes, un súbito enfoque de las mentes demócratas después de que los probables votantes indicaron a principios de este verano que la carrera se podría estar apretando. Una encuesta publicada la semana pasada por el Instituto de Políticas Públicas de California reveló que solo el 39 por ciento de los posibles votantes, en su mayoría republicanos, apoyan la destitución, mientras que el 58 por ciento piensa votar en contra.Su ventaja entre las votantes ha sido especialmente sólida, reforzada en los últimos días por las apariciones de la vicepresidenta Kamala Harris y las senadoras Elizabeth Warren y Amy Klobuchar. El presidente Biden hará campaña con él el lunes y el expresidente Barack Obama y el senador Bernie Sanders aparecen en sus anuncios de campaña.Ha acumulado unos 70 millones de dólares en contribuciones contra la revocatoria. Eso es menos que los cientos de millones de dólares que se gastaron el año pasado, por ejemplo, en la lucha por una iniciativa sobre la protección laboral de los trabajadores por obra, pero aún así es mucho más que el dinero acumulado por los otros 46 aspirantes en la votación. Además, su equipo ha movilizado un enorme esfuerzo de captación de votos con decenas de miles de voluntarios que envían mensajes de texto a decenas de millones de votantes y hacen campaña por él en siete idiomas.El gobernador también ha tenido avances en la lucha contra el coronavirus, ya que los nuevos casos se han estabilizado en todo el estado y el 80 por ciento de los californianos que cumplen los requisitos han recibido al menos una dosis de la vacuna. Por el contrario, Orrin Heatlie, un republicano que es sargento jubilado de la oficina del alguacil de la zona rural del norte de California y principal promotor de la revocatoria, no ha podido hacer campaña últimamente por la iniciativa que él mismo puso en marcha. En una entrevista por mensaje de texto, Heatlie dijo que estaba enfermo en casa con COVID-19.El panorama ha reforzado la afirmación del gobernador de que su destitución socavaría la voluntad de la mayoría de los californianos, y ha recordado a los votantes que la destitución era una posibilidad remota hasta la pandemia. Los californianos, que al principio apoyaban las órdenes sanitarias de Newsom, se cansaron de las complicadas órdenes sanitarias del gobernador. El descontento llegó a su punto álgido en noviembre, cuando Newsom fue visto sin mascarilla en un exclusivo restaurante de la región vitivinícola después de instar al público a evitar reunirse. Una orden judicial que ampliaba el plazo para la recogida de firmas debido a los cierres por la pandemia permitió a los partidarios de la revocación aprovechar el malestar.La vicepresidenta Kamala Harris en un mitin a favor del gobernador Gavin Newsom en San Leandro, California, el miércoles.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesEn California hay 5,3 millones de republicanos, y aunque el estado no hace pública la afiliación partidista de las personas que firman las peticiones, los demócratas señalan que solo se necesitaban 1,5 millones de firmas de votantes para llevar la revocatoria a una elección especial. La mayor parte de la energía y el financiamiento iniciales llegaron de la extrema derecha: los habituales de Fox News, como Newt Gingrich y Mike Huckabee, promovieron la destitución. Los primeros mítines contaron con la presencia de activistas antivacunas, devotos de QAnon y manifestantes vestidos con el eslogan ‘Hacer grande a Estados Unidos de nuevo’.Y, según los demócratas, la derecha ganará a nivel nacional si Newsom es destituido. Si el escaño de la senadora Dianne Feinstein se abre prematuramente, el gobernador de California nombrará a su sustituto, y un republicano cambiaría el control de la cámara al Partido Republicano.Sin embargo, los observadores más veteranos señalan que el enfoque del gobernador también está probado en el tiempo.“La estrategia de Newsom ha consistido en recordar a los votantes lo que se le quitaría si se fuera, en lugar de lo que ha dado mientras está aquí”, escribió recientemente Joe Eskenazi, escritor político de San Francisco, en el sitio de noticias Mission Local, al señalar que el gobernador retrató de forma similar a un oponente progresista como “Gavin Newsom contra el abismo” en su campaña a la alcaldía de San Francisco en 2003.También es una variación de una estrategia desplegada en 2012 por Scott Walker, el exgobernador de Wisconsin y el único gobernador en la historia de Estados Unidos que ha vencido una revocatoria. Walker, un republicano del Tea Party, se enfrentó a una reacción adversa por sus esfuerzos para reducir los derechos de negociación colectiva de la mayoría de los trabajadores públicos. En lugar de adoptar una postura defensiva, Walker describió el intento de destitución como una toma de poder de los sindicatos de empleados públicos.Esta imagen sobrecargó la base republicana del estado y desató un torrente de dinero de donantes conservadores de fuera del estado. La victoria no solo salvó el puesto de Walker, sino que también impulsó su perfil político nacional.El futuro político de Newsom depende ahora de ese tipo de movilización. Las matemáticas están de su lado.Los demócratas superan en número a los republicanos casi dos a uno en California. Su campaña ha actuado con antelación para disuadir a cualquier aspirante demócrata fuerte. E incluso con sus críticos, Newsom parece tener más apoyo que cuando los californianos destituyeron al exgobernador Gray Davis y lo sustituyeron por Arnold Schwarzenegger en 2003. En aquel momento, siete de cada diez votantes desaprobaban la actuación de Davis.Las reglas de votación pandémica que impulsaron la participación a un récord de 81 por ciento de los votantes registrados en 2020 siguen vigentes, lo que permite que los más de 22 millones de votantes registrados del estado voten gratis por correo.Paul Mitchell, vicepresidente de Political Data Inc., un proveedor de información sobre los votantes que no se inclina por ningún partido, dijo que casi el 30 por ciento del electorado ya ha votado, con la participación de los votantes independientes significativamente retrasada y con muchas más boletas demócratas que republicanas hasta ahora.“Si llegan al 60 por ciento de participación”, dijo Mitchell, “es casi matemáticamente imposible que Newsom pierda”.Orrin Heatlie, la figura más visible a favor de la revocatoria, en su casa en Folsom, California, en febreroMax Whittaker para The New York TimesPero no hay garantía de que lleguen a esa “cifra dorada”. La participación entre los votantes jóvenes y latinos ha sido “ínfima”, dijo. Hasta hace poco, las encuestas mostraban que muchos demócratas no sabían que había una revocatoria.Y Newsom, a pesar del 53 por ciento de aprobación de su trabajo, no ha tenido la popularidad personal de, por ejemplo, el exgobernador Jerry Brown, su predecesor. El gobernador debe rechazar la destitución con decisión, dijo Steve Maviglio, un consultor político demócrata de California, “porque si el margen es estrecho, habrá sangre en el agua”, lo que podría complicar la reelección de Newsom en 2022.La papeleta de votación pide a los californianos que respondan a dos preguntas: ¿debería Newsom ser destituido, y si es así, quién debería reemplazarlo? Si una mayoría simple vota no a la primera pregunta, la segunda es discutible. Pero si se aprueba la destitución, el puesto de gobernador será para el aspirante más votado, aunque solo una pequeña parte del electorado lo elija, una característica que ha provocado pedidos de reforma por parte de los críticos.Nathan Click, antiguo portavoz del gobernador que ahora trabaja en contra de la destitución, dijo que el equipo de Newsom comprendió desde el principio que tendría que presentar sus argumentos con rapidez. Ya en diciembre —seis meses antes de que la revocatoria estuviera oficialmente calificada para la votación— los partidarios del gobernador hicieron eco del lenguaje de sus respuestas a la petición oficial, denunciando a los proponentes como “extremistas antivacunas pro-Trump”.En enero, el presidente del Partido Demócrata del estado llamó a la destitución “un golpe de estado en California”, comparándolo con la insurrección del 6 de enero. Y en marzo, Newsom utilizó su discurso sobre el “estado del estado” para denunciar a los “críticos de California que están promoviendo una toma de poder político partidista”.Ahora, el nombre de la campaña de Newsom —“Paren la revocatoria republicana”— pretende movilizar al partido dominante del estado. Sus anuncios de televisión y las redes sociales imploran a los votantes que detengan la “descarada toma de poder republicana”.En sus discursos, Newsom ataca al aspirante principal, el locutor conservador Larry Elder, como un clon de Trump que deshará imprudentemente los avances del estado en la lucha contra las infecciones por COVID-19 y “vandalizará” la identidad de California.Larry Elder, el aspirante principal en contra del gobernador Newsom, en un evento de campaña en Thousand Oaks, el lunesAllison Zaucha para The New York TimesAl igual que en el caso de Walker, la estrategia ha inspirado la recaudación de fondos. La ley estatal de financiación de campañas limita las donaciones a los aspirantes individuales, pero trata las revocatorias como iniciativas de los votantes, permitiendo contribuciones ilimitadas. Elder —cuya retórica trumpista ha sido descrita como un regalo para Newsom— ha recaudado hasta ahora unos 13 millones de dólares; los cheques para el esfuerzo antirevocatoria de más de 100.000 dólares han sumado por sí solos más de 50 millones de dólares. Los sindicatos de empleados públicos y los progresistas han sido especialmente generosos con el gobernador.Los defensores de la revocación predicen un final más reñido de lo esperado, pero en cualquier caso, dicen, han tenido éxito. Mike Netter, quien ayudó a lanzar la petición de Heatlie, dijo que su grupo de base ha crecido hasta unos 400.000 californianos que ya están organizando medidas de votación sobre la elección de la escuela y otras causas conservadoras.“Nadie creía en nosotros, pero nos hemos metido en la boleta, tenemos a toda esta gente y no vamos a desaparecer”, dijo Netter. “No creo que nadie esperara que Gavin Newsom tuviera que gastar 68 millones de dólares para que la carrera estuviera tan reñida”.Shawn Hubler es corresponsal de California radicada en Sacramento. Antes de unirse al Times en 2020, pasó casi dos décadas cubriendo el estado para Los Angeles Times como reportera itinerante, columnista y escritora de la revista. Ha compartido tres premios Pulitzer. @ShawnHubler More

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      What If Gavin Newsom Resigned Before the Recall Election?

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      Kathy Schwartz, a retired health care analyst living in Los Angeles, had been following the news about the effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom with increasing concern.Ms. Schwartz, 65, initially believed that the recall was a waste of time and money. But she got frightened late last month as Larry Elder, the conservative radio host, vaulted into the top spot to replace the governor, propelled by promises to immediately remove all pandemic health mandates.Then a question occurred to her: Why couldn’t Mr. Newsom resign and allow Lt. Gov. Eleni Kounalakis, a fellow Democrat, to take over, rendering the recall moot?“Larry Elder is scary, the guy with the bear and the guy in San Diego are scary,” she said, referring to the Republican candidates John Cox and Kevin Faulconer. “So I wondered, ‘Why don’t you just resign to be safe?’”Ms. Schwartz, who recently emailed The New York Times her query, unwittingly stumbled across a kind of thought experiment that has been percolating on social media, and among some Democrats who fear even a brief period of Republican rule in the nation’s most populous state. Earlier in the year, Christine Pelosi, the daughter of Speaker Nancy Pelosi, floated the idea to Politico as what the publication called a kind of “nuclear option.”A spokeswoman for Mr. Newsom declined to comment on whether he would step down, and Ms. Kounalakis said she was not considering the possibility.“That is a highly unlikely scenario, so right now my main focus is on keeping Gavin Newsom in office, where he has been doing so much good for Californians,” she said.There has been some ambiguity about what would happen if for Ms. Kounalakis were forced to take over in the next couple of days.The California Secretary of State’s office, which runs elections, said in a statement that “we can’t at this point confirm that it would render the recall moot,” adding that “it would require more extensive research in the matter.”The relevant section of the state’s elections code says, “If a vacancy occurs in an office after a recall petition is filed against the vacating officer, the recall election shall nevertheless proceed.”But just because state law requires the recall election to go forward would not necessarily mean its results matter, said Erwin Chemerinsky, the dean of the School of Law at the University of California, Berkeley, and an expert in constitutional law.In the scenario where the governor resigns just ahead of a recall election, “there’s no one to recall,” he said. In his reading, it would take another recall petition to trigger another recall election targeting the lieutenant governor once she took over.Mr. Chemerinsky said there was even less indication in the State Constitution that the recall election’s results would hold if Mr. Newsom was no longer governor.One thing Mr. Chemerinsky is certain about, though, is that if Mr. Newsom were to be replaced by Ms. Kounalakis in the coming days, there would be a lot of litigation.“It would be a mess,” he said.Ms. Schwartz said she did not take any chances, quickly mailing in her ballot with a “no” vote on the first question, about whether the governor should be removed. On the second question — who should replace Mr. Newsom if he is recalled? — she selected Angelyne, the pink-Corvette-driving Hollywood enigma.If Mr. Elder wins, she said, she and her husband might move abroad. More

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      Newsom’s Strategy for California Recall: It’s Me or the Abyss

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      Ahead of the vote on Tuesday, the governor is running not so much on his own policies as against the influence of a certain former president.SACRAMENTO — As the campaign to oust him heads into its final weekend, Gov. Gavin Newsom of California is hammering home the choice he has presented to voters since the start of the recall — Donald J. Trump or him.“We defeated Trump last year, and thank you, but we haven’t defeated Trumpism,” the governor has repeated for the past two weeks in a blitz of campaign stops and Zoom calls. From vaccine resistance to climate denial, he says, everything that terrified California liberals about the last president is on the ballot. And far more than his own personal future hangs in the balance: “This is a matter of life and death.”His opponents dispute that. The governor, they say, is the problem, and the recall never would have come to an election had a critical mass of the state not resented his pandemic restrictions on businesses and classrooms, even as his own finances were secure and his own children got in-person instruction. The former president, they note, is not a candidate. “Newsom is scaremongering,” David Sacks, a Silicon Valley venture capitalist supporting the recall, tweeted recently.Only three governors have faced recall votes in the United States before Mr. Newsom, and he — and the Democratic establishment — are going all-out in presenting the effort as a radical power grab, with some partisans even comparing it at one point to the violent Jan. 6 attempt to block President Biden’s election.By invoking Mr. Trump as his opponent of choice, Mr. Newsom is reprising a message that he has used in the past to blunt criticism effectively, while also testing a strategy that is likely to be echoed by Democrats seeking to mobilize voters in midterm races across the country next year.In effect, the leader Californians elected in a 2018 landslide is running less on the Democratic policies of a Democratic incumbent than on an urgent if familiar call to action against an existential threat to blue state values.Polls suggest Mr. Newsom is making his case and has pulled ahead of his opponents — an abrupt focusing of Democratic minds after likely voters indicated earlier this summer that the race might be tightening. A survey released last week by the Public Policy Institute of California found that only 39 percent of likely voters, mostly Republican, support the recall, while 58 percent plan to vote no.His edge among female voters has been especially strong, buttressed by campaign appearances in recent days by Vice President Kamala Harris, Sen. Elizabeth Warren and Sen. Amy Klobuchar. President Biden will campaign with him on Monday and former President Barack Obama and Sen. Bernie Sanders appear in his campaign ads.He has amassed some $70 million in anti-recall contributions. That’s less than the hundreds of millions of dollars unleashed last year, for instance, in a fight over an initiative involving labor protections for gig workers, but still far more than the money amassed by the other 46 challengers on the ballot. And his team has mobilized a massive get-out-the-vote effort with tens of thousands of volunteers texting tens of millions of voters and canvassing for him in seven languages.The governor also has had progress against Covid-19 to tout, with new cases plateauing across the state as 80 percent of eligible Californians report having gotten at least one vaccine dose. In contrast, Orrin Heatlie, a retired Republican sheriff’s sergeant from rural Northern California and the recall’s lead proponent, has not been able to campaign lately for the initiative he started. In a text message interview, Mr. Heatlie said he was sick at home with Covid-19.The landscape has bolstered the governor’s claim that his removal would undermine the will of a majority of Californians, and reminded voters that the recall was a long shot until the pandemic. Initially supportive of Mr. Newsom’s health orders, Californians wearied of the governor’s complicated directives. Dissatisfaction boiled over in November, when Mr. Newsom was spotted mask-free at an exclusive wine country restaurant after urging the public to avoid gathering. A court order extending the deadline for signature gathering because of pandemic shutdowns allowed recall proponents to capitalize on the unease.Vice President Kamala Harris at a rally for Gov. Gavin Newsom in San Leandro, Calif., on Wednesday.Jim Wilson/The New York TimesCalifornia has 5.3 million Republicans, and while the state does not release the party affiliations of people who sign petitions, Democrats note that only 1.5 million voter signatures were required to bring the recall to a special election. Most of the early energy and funding came from the far right: Fox News regulars such as Newt Gingrich and Mike Huckabee promoted the recall. Early rallies were heavily attended by anti-vaccine activists, QAnon devotees and demonstrators in “Make America Great Again” gear.And, Democrats note, the right stands to gain nationally if Mr. Newsom is recalled. If Sen. Dianne Feinstein’s seat opens prematurely, California’s governor will appoint her replacement, and a Republican would shift control of the chamber to the G.O.P.Longtime observers note, however, that the governor’s approach also is time-tested.“Newsom’s strategy has been to remind voters what would be taken away if he were gone rather than what he’s given while he’s here,” Joe Eskenazi, a San Francisco political writer, recently wrote in the news site Mission Local, noting that the governor similarly framed a progressive opponent as “Gavin Newsom vs. The Abyss” in his 2003 San Francisco mayoral campaign.It is also a variation on a strategy deployed in 2012 by Scott Walker, the former governor of Wisconsin and the only governor in U.S. history to have beaten a recall. A tea party Republican, Mr. Walker faced backlash for efforts to curtail collective-bargaining rights for most public workers. Rather than assume a defensive posture, Mr. Walker portrayed the attempt to remove him as a public employee union power grab.The portrayal supercharged the state’s Republican base and unleashed a torrent of money from out-of-state conservative donors. The victory not only saved Mr. Walker’s job but also boosted his national political profile.Mr. Newsom’s political future now rides on that kind of mobilization. The math is on his side.Democrats outnumber Republicans almost two to one in California. His campaign acted early to deter any strong Democratic challengers. And even with his critics, Mr. Newsom appears to have more support than when Californians recalled former Gov. Gray Davis and replaced him with Arnold Schwarzenegger in 2003. At the time, seven in 10 voters disapproved of Mr. Davis’s performance.Pandemic voting rules that boosted turnout to a record 81 percent of registered voters in 2020 remain in place, allowing all of the state’s 22 million-plus registered voters to vote for free by mail.Paul Mitchell, vice president at Political Data Inc., a nonpartisan supplier of voter information, said more than a third of the electorate has already voted, with participation by independent voters significantly lagging and far more Democratic than Republican ballots so far.“If they get to 60 percent turnout,” Mr. Mitchell said, “it’s almost mathematically impossible for Newsom to lose.”Orrin Heatlie, the recall’s lead proponent, at his home in Folsom, Calif., in February. Max Whittaker for The New York TimesBut there’s no guarantee they’ll hit that “golden number.” Participation among young and Latino voters has been “paltry,” he said. Until recently, polls showed that many Democrats were unaware there was a recall.And Mr. Newsom, notwithstanding 53 percent job approval ratings, has lacked the personal popularity of, say, former Gov. Jerry Brown, his predecessor. The governor must beat back the recall decisively, said Steve Maviglio, a California Democratic political consultant, “because if the margin is close, there’ll be blood in the water,” potentially complicating Mr. Newsom’s re-election in 2022.The recall ballot asks Californians to answer two questions: Should Mr. Newsom be recalled, and if so, who should replace him? If a simple majority votes no on the first question, the second is moot. But if the recall passes, the governor’s post will go to the challenger with the most votes, even if only a tiny sliver of the electorate chooses that person — a feature that has prompted calls for reform from critics.Nathan Click, a former spokesman for the governor who is now working against the recall, said Mr. Newsom’s team understood early that they would need to make their case quickly. As early as December — six months before the recall would officially qualify for the ballot — the governor’s supporters were echoing the language of their official petition responses, decrying proponents as “anti-vaccine pro-Trump extremists.”In January, the state Democratic Party chairman called the recall “a California coup,” comparing it to the Jan. 6 insurrection. And in March, Mr. Newsom used his “state of the state” speech to denounce “California critics out there who are promoting partisan political power grabs.”Now, the very name of Mr. Newsom’s campaign — “Stop the Republican Recall” — aims to mobilize the state’s dominant party. His television ads and social media implore voters to stop the “boldfaced Republican power grab.”In speeches, Mr. Newsom attacks the front-running challenger, the conservative talk radio host Larry Elder, as a Trump clone who would recklessly undo the state’s progress in curbing Covid-19 infections and “vandalize” California’s identity.Larry Elder, front-running challenger to Gov. Gavin Newsom, at a campaign event in Thousand Oaks, Calif., on Monday.Allison Zaucha for The New York TimesAs it did for Mr. Walker, the strategy has inspired gushers of funding. State campaign finance law caps donations to individual challengers but treats recalls as voter initiatives, allowing unlimited contributions. Mr. Elder, whose Trumpian rhetoric has been described as a gift in itself to Mr. Newsom, has so far raised about $13 million; checks to the anti-recall effort for more than $100,000 have alone totaled more than $50 million. Public employee unions and progressives have been especially generous to the governor.Recall proponents predict a closer-than-expected finish, but either way, they say, they have succeeded. Mike Netter, who helped launch Mr. Heatlie’s petition, said their grass roots group has grown to some 400,000 Californians already organizing ballot measures on school choice and other conservative causes.“No one believed in us, but we got on the ballot, we have all these people and we’re not going away,” said Mr. Netter. “I don’t think anyone ever expected Gavin Newsom to have to spend $68 million just for the race to be this close.” More

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      Mountain of Money Fuels Newsom’s Surge to Recall Election Finish Line

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      The California governor has taken full advantage of the state’s loose financing rules for recall elections, overpowering Republican challengers for whom the cavalry never arrived.Gov. Gavin Newsom’s bid to fend off a recall in California has been bolstered by an infusion of tens of millions of dollars from big donors in recent months that delivered him an enormous financial advantage over his Republican rivals in the race’s final stretch.There had been moments over the summer when Mr. Newsom, a Democrat, had appeared vulnerable in public polls, as California’s unique recall rules seemed to provide an opening to conservatives in one of the most reliably Democratic states in the nation. But Mr. Newsom raised more than $70 million this year into an account to battle the recall, much of it in July and August, allowing him and his allies to dominate the television airwaves and out-advertise his opponents online.California has no limits on donations to recall committees, and Mr. Newsom has taken full advantage of those loose rules. His contributions have included an early $3 million from Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix; $500,000 from the liberal philanthropist George Soros; and $500,000 from the Hollywood producer Jeffrey Katzenberg. Dr. Priscilla Chan, a philanthropist and the wife of the Facebook founder Mark Zuckerberg, contributed $750,000, and the real estate magnate George Marcus gave $1 million.Millions of dollars more have come from interest groups with business before the state, including labor unions representing service workers, teachers and prison guards, the real estate industry and Native American tribes that operate casinos.On the Republican side, the financial cavalry never arrived.Mr. Newsom’s aggressive efforts to keep any other prominent Democrat from running consolidated the party’s financial might toward protecting his post. In a California recall, voters consider two questions: first, whether to recall the governor and second, whom the replacement should be. During the last recall election, in 2003, Democrats struggled to sell the famously unwieldy slogan “no on recall; yes on Bustamante” as Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, swept into the governorship.This year, Democrats and Republicans in the state seem to agree on one thing ahead of the election on Tuesday: The money mattered. All told, Mr. Newsom has spent more battling the recall than he did on his 2018 election.“If Gavin didn’t raise the money, given the amount of apathy and angst, he could have lost,” said Kerman Maddox, a Democratic strategist in California who has also worked as a party fund-raiser. “I’m just going to be real.”Dave Gilliard, a Republican strategist involved in the recall efforts, said of the cash gulf: “It’s definitely made a difference.”Despite the large sums involved in the recall, the race’s total cost is actually less than that of a single ballot measure last year, when Uber and Lyft teamed up to successfully press for rules allowing app-based companies to continue to classify drivers and other workers as independent contractors. That ballot measure drew roughly $225 million in spending because of the state’s many large and costly media markets, including Los Angeles.Mr. Newsom used his financial edge to swamp his Republican rivals and proponents of the recall on television by a nearly four-to-one ratio in July and August, spending $20.4 million to the recall supporters’ $5.6 million, according to data provided by the ad-tracking firm AdImpact. Some of those ads framed the race in the starkest of terms, with one spot saying the recall’s outcome was “a matter of life and death” because of the coronavirus. On YouTube and Google, the financial disparity was even more stark. Mr. Newsom has spent nearly $4.1 million, according to Google disclosure records, while his leading Republican opponent, the radio talk show host Larry Elder, has spent a little more than $600,000.Reed Hastings, the chief executive of Netflix, gave $3 million to Mr. Newsom’s campaign.Cayce Clifford for The New York TimesDr. Priscilla Chan gave $750,000. California has no limits on donations to recall committees.Steve Jennings/Getty ImagesThe sudden emergence of Mr. Elder as the Republican front-runner — he entered the contest in July and had raised more than $13 million by the end of August — provided Mr. Newsom with a ready-made Republican foil. An unabashed conservative, Mr. Elder had left a trail of radio clips in which he outlined positions unpopular with Democrats on issues like the environment, abortion and the minimum wage.“Lo and behold, he got a gift from the gods in the name of Larry Elder, the conservative African American version of Donald Trump,” Mr. Maddox said, adding that the specter of an Elder governorship had motivated big and small donors alike.It had not always been clear that Mr. Newsom would have such a decisive cash advantage. Some party contributors were slow to engage. Ron Conway, a San Francisco-based venture capitalist who organized early anti-recall efforts and fund-raising in the spring in the tech community, said he had been dismissed early on. “At the time, many people thought I was being alarmist,” he wrote in an email. “They don’t think that anymore!”State records show that nearly two-thirds of donations of $10,000 or more to Mr. Newsom’s main anti-recall account came after July 1. And overall, more than 80 percent of the donations over $10,000 to that account came from inside California.“Democrats would rather not have to fund an off-year race in California,” said Dan Newman, an adviser to Mr. Newsom. “But they didn’t hesitate once it was clear what’s at stake.”Mr. Newsom’s campaign said it expected to pass 600,000 donations by the election after running a robust online donation program. Still, much of the money came from giant contributions, with $48.2 million in his main anti-recall account from donations of $100,000 or more.In late August, at a donor retreat in Aspen, Colo., for contributors to the Democratic Governors Association, attendees said there was some grumbling and irritation at the need to divert any resources to a state as blue as California — especially given how many tough governors’ races are set to unfold in 2022.The governors association has sent $5.5 million to the Newsom operation opposing the recall so far.“It doesn’t bode well for Democrats in 2022 if they have to burn millions of dollars on a recall in the most liberal state in America,” said Jesse Hunt, the communications director for the Republican Governors Association.From the start, Mr. Newsom’s campaign framed the recall as a Republican power grab, which made it particularly unappealing for some bigger G.O.P. contributors to inject themselves into the race, according to both national and California Republicans. The state’s unusual requirement that the names of top donors appear in advertisements was also a turnoff, along with general disbelief that California could ever truly be flipped.“You have a lot of people who are for us but who never believe it could be done,” said Anne Hyde Dunsmore, the campaign manager of Rescue California, one of the pro-recall efforts. “No, the money didn’t come in, and no, it wasn’t for a lack of asking.”Larry Elder, who has emerged as Mr. Newsom’s leading challenger, raised $13 million in his first two months in the race.Allison Zaucha for The New York TimesSome significant checks did come. Mr. Elder received $1 million from Geoffrey Palmer, a real estate developer and top Republican donor. Saul Fox, a private equity executive, made a $100,000 donation. And Mr. Elder quickly lapped the rest of the Republican field in fund-raising with big and small donations.John Cox, the Republican who lost to Mr. Newsom in a 2018 landslide, has spent millions of his own dollars running again. Among his costly moves was campaigning with a 1,000-pound Kodiak bear named Tag, who also appeared in Mr. Cox’s ads.Kevin Faulconer, a Republican former mayor of San Diego, raised more than $4 million for his candidacy, and Kevin Kiley, a Republican state assemblyman, raised more than $1 million.Caitlyn Jenner, the transgender activist and former Olympian, received a wave of publicity upon her entrance to the race. But her bid, and her fund-raising, have mostly fallen flat. As of late August, Ms. Jenner had raised less than $1 million and had less than $28,000 in cash on hand — with more than that in unpaid bills.Gale Kaufman, a Sacramento-based Democratic strategist, said the fractured and financially weak Republican field “kept them from ever being able to create a ‘yes’ campaign” — for the recall — “that resonated.”“They’re not speaking with one voice and they’re not saying the same thing,” she said.Mike Netter, a Republican who was one of the recall’s early grass-roots organizers, was frustrated by Democratic attacks that the push was a Republican effort to seize power. He said that little conservative support had materialized after the recall proponents put the measure on the ballot.“If we’re supposedly so Republican-driven, where’s our money? Where’s the air cover from our supposed right-wing secret organizations?” Mr. Netter said, citing the lack of big donations from the party and leading in-state Republicans like Representative Devin Nunes. “No one has believed in us this whole way. And it’s not like we have that kind of money. It’s not like the Koch brothers are my cousins or something. I went to San Diego State.”Shawn Hubler More

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      Newsom Opens a Double-Digit Lead in Recall Election Polls

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      When the campaign to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom qualified for the ballot in April, Democrats scoffed. It was a futile piece of theater from the far right, they said. California is, after all, one of the bluest states in the country.Then, abruptly and to Democrats’ alarm, the polls tightened. “Keep” and “remove” drew almost even. The party dispatched leaders as high as Vice President Kamala Harris to campaign with Mr. Newsom.And now, with the election days away, we seem to have circled right back to where we started.Mr. Newsom has opened a double-digit lead in recent polls, and it appears to be growing. A polling average compiled by FiveThirtyEight had “keep” at 55.7 percent and “remove” at 41.3 percent as of Friday afternoon, and an average compiled by RealClearPolitics showed an even bigger gap, 56.7 percent to 41 percent. The last time an individual poll in either of those averages showed “remove” ahead was in early August.The most recent poll was released Friday by The Los Angeles Times and the University of California, Berkeley, and found “keep” ahead by more than 20 percentage points.The shift appears to have been driven by growing Democratic engagement — many Democrats were not paying attention to the recall before, or ignored it because they thought it would easily fail — and by Democrats’ success in reframing the campaign as a binary choice between Mr. Newsom and one Republican challenger, Larry Elder, as opposed to a referendum on Mr. Newsom himself.Of course, polls are fallible — as the 2016 and 2020 elections certainly proved — and upsets are always possible. But the advantage, and the momentum, clearly belongs to Mr. Newsom. More