Elections, Governors

Subterms

    More stories

    • 163 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      Hochul Leads Zeldin by 10 Points in Marist Poll, as G.O.P. Sees Hope

      by

      Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat, enjoys a healthy lead in New York, but Republican leaders are showing signs of cautious optimism that the race might be competitive.Gov. Kathy Hochul leads Representative Lee Zeldin by 10 percentage points in a Marist College poll of registered voters released on Thursday, a potential margin of victory that would be the narrowest in a New York governor’s race in nearly three decades.The poll suggested that Ms. Hochul, a Democrat from Buffalo, would defeat Mr. Zeldin, a Republican from Long Island, by 51 percent to 41 percent, a poll result that included those who were undecided but were pressed to pick the candidate they were leaning toward.The governor’s lead over Mr. Zeldin narrowed to eight percentage points among voters who said that they would “definitely vote” in the Nov. 8 election, one of the marquee races for governor in the country.The survey marked the first time that Marist has polled the governor’s race in New York this year, and it suggested that Ms. Hochul’s lead may be narrower than some other major public polls have indicated in recent months.A poll released by Siena College in late September, for instance, found that the governor was ahead by a commanding 17 percentage points, up from 14 percentage points in a Siena survey from August. An Emerson College poll suggested that Ms. Hochul was up by 15 points in early September.The last time a candidate in a contest for governor of New York won by fewer than 10 percentage points was in 1994, when George Pataki, a Republican, upset the three-term Democratic incumbent, Mario M. Cuomo, by roughly three percentage points. (In 2002, Mr. Pataki won re-election with 49.4 percent of the vote, while two candidates, Carl McCall and Tom Golisano, split the rest of the vote.)There are other signals that national Republicans have grown more cautiously optimistic about the trajectory of the race. After initially taking a pass on spending for Mr. Zeldin, the Republican Governors Association transferred $450,000 last week to a pro-Zeldin super PAC running ads attacking Ms. Hochul. Still, the investment is a fraction of what the group is spending in swing states like Arizona and Michigan.Even so, with less than a month until Election Day, the Marist poll was the latest indication that, despite the favorable political climate for Republicans this cycle, Ms. Hochul remains strongly positioned to emerge victorious as she seeks her first full term.She has built a campaign juggernaut that has continued to significantly outpace Mr. Zeldin in spending and fund-raising, while publicizing her accomplishments during her one year in office since unexpectedly succeeding former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo after his resignation.While Mr. Zeldin has sought to appeal to New Yorkers’ concerns over inflation and public safety, Ms. Hochul has generated a storm of television and digital ads attacking Mr. Zeldin’s opposition to abortion rights, as well as his support of former President Donald J. Trump.For Mr. Zeldin to pull off a win in a state that is overwhelmingly Democratic, he would have to make significant inroads in voter-rich New York City, the state’s liberal stronghold, while winning by considerable margins in the suburbs and in upstate.But recent polls have suggested that those prospects may be far from reach.The Zeldin campaign has said he would need to secure at least 30 percent of the vote in New York City to remain competitive, but the Marist poll found him trailing Ms. Hochul 23 percent to 65 percent in the city. His small lead in the suburbs (three percentage points) and upstate (six percentage points) would not be enough to defeat Ms. Hochul statewide if the election were held today, the poll suggested.The Marist poll, however, indicated there might be more enthusiasm among Republicans, suggesting that Republicans were more likely to head to the polls. It suggested that a higher percentage of voters who said they supported Mr. Zeldin, 74 percent, said they “strongly supported” their candidate of choice, compared with 62 percent of those who said they would vote for Ms. Hochul.“Although Democratic candidates for governor and U.S. Senate lead in very blue New York, the race for governor still bears watching,” Lee M. Miringoff, the director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion, said in a statement. “Republicans say they are more likely to vote, enthusiasm for Zeldin among his supporters exceeds Hochul’s and any shift to crime in the closing weeks is likely to benefit Zeldin.”The poll was conducted a few days before two teenagers were shot in a drive-by shooting outside Mr. Zeldin’s home on Long Island last weekend, an incident that the congressman has used to play up his campaign message around public safety.Out of the 1,117 registered voters that the Marist poll surveyed over a four-day span last week via phone, text and online, 900, or about 70 percent, said that they definitely planned to vote in November. The poll had a margin of error of four percentage points.Nicholas Fandos More

    • 138 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Is Ron DeSantis as Strong a Potential Candidate as He Seems?

      by

      The Florida governor looks to be well positioned to head into a hypothetical presidential primary in 2024. But past Republican darlings rose just as fast — only to fall quickly.In March 2015, the Republican National Committee held a donor retreat in Boca Raton, Fla. The belle of the ball was a Republican governor with a penchant for owning the libs, delighting Fox News and playing bare-knuckle politics.One speaker, a New York real estate mogul widely seen as an unserious blowhard, drew eye rolls among those present as he groused about how the R.N.C. should have held the event at Mar-a-Lago, his private club just down the road.The governor, who was polling well in Iowa, was running for president on a simple platform: Your enemies are my enemies, too. Almost universally, pundits speculated that he would be the one to beat in a G.O.P. primary that would be dominated by cultural resentment and anger over the current president’s policies.Well, that governor, short on cash and charisma, flamed out months before any 2016 primaries were even held. His name was Scott Walker. And the real estate mogul who bored the crowd was, of course, Donald Trump.American politics is no longer as predictable as it once was. Each day seems to violate one bit of received wisdom or another. But Walker’s rise and fall nevertheless offers a cautionary tale for Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida, the current favorite to be the G.O.P. nominee in 2024.*“There are a lot of folks who have buzz right now,” said Bob Vander Plaats, president of The Family Leader, a social conservative organization in Iowa. “Will they have buzz a year from now?”Vander Plaats, who has met DeSantis and said he was well regarded within Iowa Republican political circles, added, “I would rather be peaking at this stage versus not peaking at all.”Charlie Sykes, a conservative former radio host in Wisconsin who now works at The Bulwark, a website that has become a refuge for anti-Trump Republicans, said that despite his image as a fighter, Walker in person was “quite genial.” In his memoirs, Walker said he rejected Sykes’s advice to be more of a political pugilist because it just wasn’t his style.The fundamental question for DeSantis — a more combative person in private as well as in public — Sykes said, was, “How does that personality scale up? How will that wear?”*Key caveat: in a hypothetical world where Trump doesn’t run.The DeSantis buzzOn paper, DeSantis has a lot going for him.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.The Final Stretch: With less than one month until Election Day, Republicans remain favored to take over the House, but momentum in the pitched battle for the Senate has seesawed back and forth.A Surprising Battleground: New York has emerged from a haywire redistricting cycle as perhaps the most consequential congressional battleground in the country. For Democrats, the uncertainty is particularly jarring.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Attacks by Doug Mastriano, the G.O.P. nominee, on the Jewish school where Josh Shapiro, the Democratic candidate, sends his children have set off an outcry about antisemitic signaling.Herschel Walker: The Republican Senate nominee in Georgia reportedly paid for an ex-girlfriend’s abortion, but some conservative Christians have learned to tolerate the behavior of those who advance their cause.He has amassed a campaign hoard worthy of Smaug, the dragon in “The Hobbit.” A stocky former college baseball player and officer with the Navy Judge Advocate General’s Corps, he projects the sort of strength that plays well in Republican politics. And he emerged from the pandemic bolstered, on the right at least, by the perception that he navigated the coronavirus relatively successfully in defiance of experts like Dr. Anthony Fauci.In polls, DeSantis consistently rates as the second choice of Republican voters, behind Trump but well ahead of any putative rivals. And in focus groups, voters often describe him as “Trump without the baggage,” according to Sarah Longwell, a G.O.P. strategist who opposes Trump.Like Walker, though, DeSantis risks peaking too early. Walker’s operation made a strategic error early on by parking much of its cash in a 527 committee, a tax-exempt organization that was barred from certain campaign activities. When the money dried up in the summer of 2015, his official campaign had trouble paying for the extensive apparatus it had built in anticipation of better fund-raising success.The early infatuation of Republican voters (and pundits!) with shiny objects is a timeworn tradition, too. Remember Marco Rubio, the “Republican savior”? Rand Paul, “the most interesting man in politics”? Rick Perry, the hot stuff of the early 2012 hustings? And it remains to be seen whether DeSantis, a wooden speaker with a reputation for burning through his staff, has the personal skills to go the distance.In interviews, Republican strategists and donors said that DeSantis looked to be in a strong position for 2024. His home in Florida gives him access to a deep-pocketed donor community that Walker lacked, several noted. He’s won allies in the political influencer community on the right. And his ability to appeal to both the Trump and Mitch McConnell wings of the party affords him room for maneuver in a Republican Party divided between two mutually hostile camps.But everyone I interviewed emphasized that anything could happen. Several mentioned that they expected Trump to avoid announcing a re-election run as long as possible — freezing the potential G.O.P. field in place and, possibly, crippling any nascent campaign organizations they hope to build.That could spell trouble for DeSantis, despite his fund-raising prowess, since he currently lacks the sort of national political operation necessary to win a presidential nomination. Under campaign finance rules, DeSantis won’t be able to reallocate much of his 2022 hoard to any presidential campaign, either.“One big difference is Trump,” said Mike DuHaime, a former political adviser to Gov. Chris Christie of New Jersey, who noted that the large G.O.P. field in 2016 was an important factor in that primary.But if Trump doesn’t run, he said, “I think a question for DeSantis is whether there will be other people in the same governors’ lane or ideological lane,” which could split the vote among similar candidates.DeSantis might also find, as Walker did before him, that being a governor has advantages and disadvantages. Just because donors gave to his re-election campaign does not mean they would necessarily finance a presidential run, for instance. And his handling of the aftermath of Hurricane Ian will be scrutinized carefully for any signs of mismanagement or callousness.But on the positive side of the ledger, “being governor allowed him to strike a different path,” DuHaime said. “It gets you out of being a knee-jerk parrot for Trump, like many senators had to do.”Gov. Chris Christie with President Barack Obama in New Jersey after Hurricane Sandy in 2012.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe Christie precedentFor DeSantis’s confidants — and, by most accounts, his wife, Casey, is his closest political adviser — the more salient cautionary tale is that of Christie.The former New Jersey governor decided not to run in 2012, when he was at the peak of his popularity. He waited instead until 2016, when he ran into a buzz saw named Trump, and has long regretted it.“You have a moment,” Casey DeSantis has told associates, according to my colleague Matt Flegenheimer. And the DeSantises apparently believe that moment is now.Christie is making noises about running again in 2024. He told a reporter this weekend, “I don’t care who else runs. If I decide I want to run, I’m running.”But his criticism of Trump could be fatal. Trump remains popular among Republican base voters: In the most recent New York Times/Siena poll, 53 percent of those who voted for him in 2020 said they had a “very favorable” opinion of him, and 36 percent said their opinion of him was “somewhat favorable.”When Christie recently defended the Justice Department’s search of Mar-a-Lago, Trump fired back by posting a mocking photo.One key lesson DeSantis seems to have learned from Christie’s defenestration: Don’t embrace a Democratic president, metaphorically or otherwise.Photos of Christie warmly welcoming President Barack Obama when the two met after Hurricane Sandy devastated the New Jersey coastline in 2012 were weaponized against him four years later — with a handshake morphing into a “hug” that helped doom him in the 2016 G.O.P. primary.When DeSantis met President Biden last week after Hurricane Ian wrecked much of the west coast of Florida, their body language was rather different — professional, but hardly warm.“Mr. President, welcome to Florida,” DeSantis said as he handed over the lectern at their joint news conference. “We appreciate working together across various levels of government, and the floor is yours.”If Biden had any inclination to embrace his potential rival, he betrayed none of that in his remarks.“We have very different political philosophies, but we’ve worked hand in glove,” Biden said. And when the president praised the governor’s recovery efforts as “pretty remarkable so far,” DeSantis offered only a polite smile.What to readHouse Republicans have only a dozen members of color, but they are fielding a slate of 67 Black, Latino, Asian or Native American candidates in November, by the party’s count. Jonathan Weisman spoke to many of them.In the two parties’ efforts to control Congress, New York has become surprisingly competitive. Nicholas Fandos writes about the districts that are in play.Doug Mastriano, the Republican nominee for governor of Pennsylvania, has drawn attention to the Jewish religion of his opponent, Josh Shapiro. Katie Glueck examines the alarm among Jewish voters.The idea of sending migrants to left-leaning areas of the U.S. circulated in conservative circles for years. Maggie Haberman and Michael C. Bender look back at the traction it gained under Donald Trump and the path to Republican governors’ putting it into practice.With less than a month until Election Day, candidates are meeting for debates. Alyce McFadden breaks down what has taken place so far and how to watch the debates to come.Thank you for reading On Politics, and for being a subscriber to The New York Times. — BlakeRead past editions of the newsletter here.If you’re enjoying what you’re reading, please consider recommending it to others. They can sign up here. Browse all of our subscriber-only newsletters here.Have feedback? Ideas for coverage? We’d love to hear from you. Email us at onpolitics@nytimes.com. More

    • 163 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      For Zeldin, a Shooting Hits Close to Home and to His Campaign Theme

      by

      The shooting of two teenagers directly outside his Long Island home has given Mr. Zeldin an opportunity to push his tough-on-crime message within a personal frame.After two teenage boys were shot outside his home on Long Island last weekend, Representative Lee Zeldin wasted little time to amplify the tough-on-crime message he has relentlessly pressed in his bid for governor of New York.He quickly assembled a news conference in front of his moonlit house on Sunday night, followed up the next day with a Fox News interview, and used an appearance at the Columbus Day Parade to imbue his political messaging with a new personal, if frightening, outlook.“It doesn’t hit any closer to home than this,” Mr. Zeldin, a Republican, said while marching at the parade in Manhattan on Monday, describing the incident as “traumatic” for his twin 16-year-old daughters, who were doing their homework in the kitchen when the shooting happened. “This could be anyone across this entire state.”“Last night the girls wanted to sleep with us,” Mr. Zeldin also said during the parade. “I didn’t think that the next time I’d be standing in front of a crime scene, it would be crime scene tape in front of my own house.”The shooting unfolded on Sunday afternoon when the police said multiple gunshots were fired from a dark-colored vehicle at three teenage boys walking near Mr. Zeldin’s home in Suffolk County on Long Island. Two 17-year-old boys were forced to take cover by Mr. Zeldin’s porch, suffering injuries that were not life threatening, while a 15-year-old boy fled the shots unharmed.That the shooting unfolded near the home of a conservative congressman who has anchored his campaign for governor on the state of crime in New York, attracting outsize media attention, appears to have been pure happenstance.The police had not made any arrests as of Tuesday, but they were investigating whether the incident was connected to gang violence, according to a law enforcement official who asked to remain anonymous to discuss an ongoing investigation.But with less than four weeks until Election Day, the shooting offered Mr. Zeldin an opportunity to elevate the issue of public safety in the governor’s race, as the congressman seeks a breakout in his efforts to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul, a Democrat who has so far enjoyed a comfortable lead in most public polls.Mr. Zeldin faces a steep climb to overcome Ms. Hochul’s significant fund-raising edge in a state where Democrats overwhelmingly outnumber Republicans. He has been quick to talk about the impact of the shooting in starkly personal terms, appealing to New Yorkers who have also been affected by gun violence. Mr. Zeldin was at a campaign event in the Bronx with his wife during the shooting.Mr. Zeldin, a staunch Trump supporter who has represented Suffolk County in Congress since 2015, has said he would make law and order his top priority if elected. He has consistently sought to blame the rise in violence on criminal justice policies enacted by progressive lawmakers as well as on left-leaning prosecutors, such as Alvin Bragg, the district attorney in Manhattan. He has promised to fire Mr. Bragg “on Day 1.”At the same time, he has opposed Democratic-led efforts to tighten gun control measures, cheering the Supreme Court’s decision to strike down New York’s concealed carry law as “a historic, proper, and necessary victory.”Ms. Hochul, who is seeking her first full term, has trumpeted her efforts to tighten the state’s bail laws and has emphasized initiatives to crack down on illegal gun trafficking, as well as a law she signed raising the age for the purchase of semiautomatic rifles, after a massacre at a Buffalo supermarket earlier this year.“We’re not running away from those issues,” Ms. Hochul said on Monday. “We’re leaning hard into them because we have a real record of accomplishment.”The shooting outside Mr. Zeldin’s home is the second time his safety has been threatened this election cycle.Three months ago, a man tried to physically attack Mr. Zeldin with a sharp key chain during a campaign event near Rochester. The attacker, a veteran of the Iraq War who suffers from post-traumatic stress disorder and alcoholism, was quickly subdued and initially released without bail before being arrested on federal assault charges.Mr. Zeldin, who was not injured, used the confrontation to attack Democrats for the reforms they enacted to the state’s bail laws two years ago, even if the episode did little to shake up the state of the race.“It’s an extraordinary coincidence of events that gives Zeldin’s crime message added credibility, urgency, and national attention,” said William F. B. O’Reilly, a Republican political consultant who is not working on the Zeldin campaign. “This will almost certainly help him in the final weeks of the campaign.”Mr. Zeldin could certainly use a boost, having lagged behind Ms. Hochul in nearly every public poll commissioned this cycle. He has also found himself chasing her haul of campaign contributions — a tribute to a voracious fund-raising apparatus that raised $11.1 million from July to October of this year. The cash has allowed her to blanket airwaves and smartphones with campaign ads attacking Mr. Zeldin’s support of Mr. Trump and his opposition to abortion rights.Mr. Zeldins financial outlook is not exactly bleak, however. He brought in $6.4 million during the same period, thanks in part to fund-raisers with former president Donald J. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. He has also seen support from conservative super PACs which have spent nearly $4 million in the past weeks on ads calling Ms. Hochul soft on crime and criticizing her handling of the economy.On Tuesday, a police car was still stationed outside Mr. Zeldin’s home in Shirley, a working-class hamlet on the South Shore of Long Island, where residents on the typically sleepy street were still rattled by the burst of violence.Dan Haug was in his home when he heard the shots and ran to the window, spotting one of the boys lying in Mr. Zeldin’s bushes, screaming and bleeding from the gunshot wounds.“You know, there’s little isolated incidents in this neighborhood with like, fireworks and like dogs getting loose,” said Mr. Haug, who has lived in the neighborhood for seven years. “But nothing like that.”Mary Smith, the mother of the teenager who escaped unharmed, blamed the shooting on the proliferation of guns among young people, while stressing that she did not believe her son was in a gang, saying: “He’s just a normal kid.”While expressing sympathy for the Zeldin family ordeal, Ms. Smith lamented that she had heard nothing from the congressman himself, despite his many public comments.“I’m around the corner from you,” Ms. Smith said in an interview. “They took the story away from the victims and made it about running for government.”Chelsia Rose Marcius More

    • 150 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      Hochul Outpaces Zeldin in Cash Race, but Super PACs Help His Cause

      by

      Gov. Kathy Hochul has used her fund-raising edge to spend more than $1.5 million a week since Labor Day on an aggressive television ad campaign.Since she took office last year, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s voracious fund-raising apparatus has been a source of curiosity and concern among various factions of New York’s political and business elite.But with just a month left in one of the nation’s marquee governor’s races, it has given Ms. Hochul an increasingly clear payoff: a financial advantage over her Republican opponent, Representative Lee Zeldin, as she seeks to become the first woman to be elected governor of New York.Ms. Hochul raised $11.1 million, or about $133,000 a day on average, from mid-July to early October, according to campaign filings made public late Friday that showed numerous high-dollar events in the Hamptons and Manhattan. She will enter the homestretch of the race with nearly $10.9 million in cash at her disposal — two and a half times as much money as Mr. Zeldin.As independent polls show Ms. Hochul, a Buffalo Democrat, with a fluctuating lead, she has poured most of the cash into an unrelenting ad campaign to try to highlight Mr. Zeldin’s opposition to abortion rights and support for former President Donald J. Trump. It is not cheap: Records show Ms. Hochul has spent more than $1.5 million a week since Labor Day to blanket New Yorkers’ televisions and smartphones.Mr. Zeldin’s fund-raising total represents a fraction of the kinds of campaign hauls being put together by other Republicans running for governor in big states this fall as the party tries to make major gains nationwide.But unlike other recent Republican nominees in New York, Mr. Zeldin has seemed to put together enough money to remain competitive in the race’s final weeks. His campaign reported raising $6.4 million during the three-month period, including large hauls at events featuring Mr. Trump and Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida. Mr. Zeldin has roughly $4.5 million in cash, a figure that surprised some Democrats.“Lee Zeldin is raising enough money to run a more competitive race than the last few Republican gubernatorial nominees,” said Evan Stavisky, a leading New York Democratic strategist. “However, and this is a big however, money isn’t the only reason Republicans haven’t won a statewide election in 20 years, and Zeldin is still going to be vastly outspent by Kathy Hochul.”There are more than twice as many registered Democrats than Republicans in the state — a margin that underscores Mr. Zeldin’s challenge.Notably, a pair of Republican super PACs, largely funded by a single conservative billionaire cosmetics heir, have stepped in to help narrow the financial gap: The two groups, Safe Together NY and Save our State NY, have collectively spent close to $4 million in recent weeks on ads echoing Mr. Zeldin’s attacks on Ms. Hochul, according to AdImpact, an ad tracking firm. The ads accuse the governor of being soft on crime and weak on the economy.Unlike campaign committees, the groups can accept unlimited donations, allowing wealthy individuals to exercise huge amounts of influence on the race. In the case of the governor’s race, Ronald S. Lauder, the cosmetics heir, has already committed close to $4.5 million to the two PACs, a number that is expected to grow in the coming weeks.Ms. Hochul, who took office last year after the resignation of Andrew M. Cuomo, does not have a similar super PAC aiding her campaign. But she has raised millions of dollars from wealthy donors with business interests before the state, an arrangement that, while common among her predecessors, has nonetheless drawn scrutiny from good governance watchdogs who worry that it is creating conflicts of interest.Though Ms. Hochul’s campaign touted that 60 percent of its contributions were for less than $200, the vast majority of her funds came in far larger increments, including more than 100 contributions of $25,000 or more, the filings showed.More than $2 million came directly from corporations, unions and political action committees, including Eli Lilly, Lyft, Charter Communications and Pfizer. The personal injury law firm Gair, Gair, Conason and the medical malpractice firm Kramer, Dillof, Livingston & Moore each funneled $100,000 to the campaign.Ms. Hochul also received large contributions from members of prominent New York families who have supported Mr. Zeldin. Ronald Lauder’s nephew, William P. Lauder, for example, gave Ms. Hochul $40,000. Haim Chera, a real estate executive whose family hosted the Zeldin fund-raiser attended by Mr. Trump, gave her $47,100. Mr. Chera is an executive at Vornado Realty Trust, a colossal firm that stands to benefit from Ms. Hochul’s plan to redevelop the area around Pennsylvania Station in Manhattan.Mr. Zeldin’s campaign took in about a third as many large checks, but it is benefiting from special interests, too. Two PACs associated with the Rent Stabilization Association, a pro-landlord trade group, gave a combined $89,000. Arnold Gumowitz, a real estate developer who has given to Ms. Hochul but is fighting the Penn Station project, contributed $47,100. Altogether, close to $500,000 came in from corporations, PACs and other special interests groups.Despite lending his presence to a fund-raiser, Mr. Trump has not cut a check to Mr. Zeldin, a longtime ally, nor has any group the former president controls.Other Republicans seeking to challenge statewide Democratic officeholders in New York are more clearly struggling to assemble the resources they need to compete.While Letitia James, the Democratic attorney general, reported $2.75 million in cash on hand, her opponent, Michael Henry, had just $146,000. Thomas P. DiNapoli, the Democratic comptroller, reported having $1,998,366 on hand, roughly 630 times as much as the $3,173.14 in the bank account of his opponent, Paul Rodriguez.Despite the millions being spent, the race for governor of New York is actually shaping up to be relatively cheap compared to other, more competitive contests in big states like Texas, Georgia and Wisconsin, which could cost well over $100 million each. In Georgia, the candidates for governor announced raising a total of nearly $65 million during the last three months. More

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      In Illinois Governor’s Debate, Bailey Tries to Put Pritzker on Defensive.

      by

      It is no secret that Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois has presidential ambitions. This year he has traveled to New Hampshire, used his billions to finance fellow Democratic candidates in critical states and made himself a national figure in the fight for abortion rights and gun control.So when Mr. Pritzker’s Republican opponent, State Senator Darren Bailey, pulled from his suit jacket pocket a pledge to serve all four years of the term on the ballot in November, Mr. Pritzker responded with what was a not-quite-air-tight assertion.“I intend to serve four years more if re-elected,” Mr. Pritzker said. “I intend to support the president, he’s running for re-election.”President Biden has not formally made that declaration himself, but all indications are that he intends to run, just as Mr. Pritzker intends to serve out a second term. But neither man has made his pledge official.Mr. Bailey’s pledge presentation was just one moment in an hourlong debate in which he sought to put Mr. Pritzker on the defensive, regularly interrupting the governor or muttering asides while Mr. Pritzker was speaking.But Mr. Bailey, a far-right legislator, found himself having to explain his past statements comparing abortion to the Holocaust.“The attempted extermination of the Jews in World War II, it doesn’t even compare to a shadow of the life that has been lost to abortion since its legalization,” Mr. Bailey said in a Facebook Live video clip the moderators played during the debate.Mr. Bailey was then asked: “You said Jewish leaders told you, you were right. Can you name the Jewish leaders who agree with you?”The state senator responded by saying “the liberal press” had taken his past remarks, which he said were from 2017, out of context.“The atrocity of the Holocaust is beyond parallel,” he said.Asked again to name the Jewish leaders who agreed with him, Mr. Bailey demurred.“No, I’m not going to put anybody on record,” he said. More

    • 113 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Jan. 6 Defendant Coordinated Volunteers to Help Glenn Youngkin

      by

      In the election last fall that sent Glenn Youngkin to the Virginia governor’s office and propelled him to G.O.P. stardom, the state and local Republican Party tasked Joseph Brody with coordinating volunteers to knock on doors of potential Youngkin voters in the state’s strategically crucial northern suburbs.But eight months earlier, Mr. Brody had been immersed in the Jan. 6 attack at the U.S. Capitol, according to the F.B.I., which said that he assaulted a police officer with a metal barricade and breached several restricted areas, including the Senate floor and the office of Speaker Nancy Pelosi.Now, Mr. Brody, 23, who the F.B.I. said was associated with the white nationalist group America First, is facing felony and misdemeanor charges for his role. The candidate he would go on to help, Mr. Youngkin, tried during his campaign to keep himself at arm’s length from former President Donald J. Trump, and he called the Jan. 6 riot a “blight on our democracy.”Shortly after Mr. Brody’s arrest last month, an image scraped from the internet by online sleuths who call themselves “Sedition Hunters” showed a man in a MAGA hat holding a high-powered rifle in front of a Nazi flag, with a bandanna concealing his face. The group, which has provided information that has helped law enforcement officials make hundreds of arrests related to Jan. 6, said the man in the photo was Mr. Brody.A public defender listed for Mr. Brody did not respond to several requests for comment. Messages sent to an email account for Mr. Brody went unanswered. There was no answer at a phone number listed for him.Mr. Youngkin’s office referred questions about Mr. Brody to Kristin Davison, a political consultant for the governor, who said in an email on Friday that Mr. Brody “did not work for or with the Youngkin campaign.”The Fairfax County Republican Committee twice listed Mr. Brody, who is from Springfield, Va., in Fairfax, as helping to coordinate a volunteer effort to knock on doors for “Team Youngkin.” When asked about those online listings, Ms. Davison said, “Those are not posts from the Youngkin campaign.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mr. Youngkin’s campaign logo appeared on both pages, which included an official email address associated with the Republican Party of Virginia for Mr. Brody.“Mr. Brody was employed by the party as a door-knocker for one month last fall,” Ellie Sorensen, a state G.O.P. spokeswoman, said in an email on Monday. “He has not been employed by the Republican Party of Virginia for over a year.”Ms. Sorensen did not comment further about the charges against Mr. Brody or what had led to the end of his employment with the party.The Fairfax Republicans did not respond to multiple requests for comment.According to a criminal affidavit, Mr. Brody recorded and photographed senators’ desks during the Capitol attack, in which he wore a neck gaiter with an American flag pattern. Later, he “assisted another rioter in using a metal barricade against a Capitol Police officer, knocking the officer back as he attempted to secure the north door,” an F.B.I. agent said in the affidavit.Federal investigators said Mr. Brody had previously met four other men who were recently charged in the attack at an event held by America First, whose followers are known as Groypers. The movement’s leader, Nicholas J. Fuentes, a white supremacist who has been denounced by conservative organizations as a Holocaust denier and a racist, was issued a subpoena by the congressional committee investigating the Jan. 6 attack.In one photograph that a group of Sedition Hunters said it had obtained of Mr. Brody, a young political canvasser holds a campaign sign for Mr. Youngkin. The group contrasted that image with other postings it said were from Mr. Brody’s social media accounts, some of which showed Nazi symbols and diatribes against women.Luke Broadwater More

    • 138 Shares119 Views

      in Elections

      Gov. Brian Kemp Tiptoes Past Uproar Over Herschel Walker Abortion Report

      by

      ATLANTA — Gov. Brian Kemp of Georgia has been running a steady, drama-free campaign for re-election since he dispatched with his Trump-backed primary challenger in May. While screaming headlines and stumbles have dogged Herschel Walker’s Senate bid, Mr. Kemp has kept his head down and his mouth shut about his fellow Republican.On Wednesday, with only five weeks left in his race against Stacey Abrams, Mr. Kemp did not switch gears. He dodged a question about whether he would campaign with Mr. Walker, after his spokesman offered only general support of Republicans “up and down the ticket.”“I’m focused on my race,” Mr. Kemp said during a brief interview after a town hall event in Atlanta’s Buckhead neighborhood. “I can’t control what other people are doing. I certainly can’t control the past. But I can control my own destiny and that’s what we’re doing.”The governor has dodged several questions in recent days about the latest round of turmoil surrounding Mr. Walker: A Monday evening report from The Daily Beast said the former University of Georgia football player and outspoken abortion opponent paid for his then-girlfriend to have the procedure in 2009.The New York Times has not confirmed the report. Mr. Walker has denied the story and threatened to file a defamation suit against the outlet. The litigation, however, has not yet materialized.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Standing by Herschel Walker: After a report that the G.O.P. Senate candidate in Georgia paid for a girlfriend’s abortion in 2009, Republicans rallied behind him, fearing that a break with the former football star could hurt the party’s chances to take the Senate.Democrats’ Closing Argument: Buoyed by polls that show the end of Roe v. Wade has moved independent voters their way, vulnerable House Democrats have reoriented their campaigns around abortion rights in the final weeks before the election.G.O.P. Senate Gains: After signs emerged that Republicans were making gains in the race for the Senate, the polling shift is now clear, writes Nate Cohn, The Times’s chief political analyst.Trouble for Nevada Democrats: The state has long been vital to the party’s hold on the West. Now, Democrats are facing potential losses up and down the ballot.Asked about Mr. Kemp’s comments, Mr. Walker’s spokesman, Will Kiley, dismissed them as not “a real story.” In an interview with Fox News’s Brian Kilmeade earlier on Wednesday, Mr. Walker said he was unfazed by the controversy and described himself as having “been redeemed.”“It’s like they’re trying to bring up my past to hurt me,” Mr. Walker said of Democrats and the media. “But they don’t know that bringing up my past only energizes me.”Mr. Walker also talks about his past in a 30-second direct-to-camera video spot called “Grace” that his campaign released on Wednesday, but only in broad terms. It outlines his struggles with mental illness and makes heavy appeals to faith, but does not directly mention the Daily Beast report. He instead accuses his opponent, Senator Raphael Warnock, who is also the senior pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church, of not believing in redemption. Mr. Warnock’s campaign declined to comment. Mr. Walker’s move to run negative messaging related to Mr. Warnock’s pastoral career is one that Republicans have tried to avoid, following major blowback during the 2021 U.S. Senate runoffs. Most national Republican figures, in addition to the party’s most ardent supporters in Georgia, rallied behind Mr. Walker immediately after the article published, hopeful that conservative voters in the state would dismiss the report as false or ignore it. But Mr. Kemp, an abortion opponent who signed into law Georgia’s six-week ban on the procedure, has offered no specific support nor condemnation. His spokesman put out a broad statement in response on Tuesday, saying the governor’s main objective at this stage was working to secure a second term.Mr. Walker with Black clergy members at an event in Austell, Ga, in August.Audra Melton for The New York TimesOn Wednesday, Mr. Kemp did not answer a question about whether he would campaign alongside Mr. Walker. The two have not yet held joint events. When asked by The Times if Mr. Walker’s troubles could damage the Republican ticket, Mr. Kemp said, “That’s a question the voters will have to decide.”“I’m not going to get into people’s personal lives,” he said. “Nobody’s asking me about that when I’m out on the road. They’re asking me, ‘Hey, how’s it going? What are you doing?’ Or they’re saying, ‘Thank you for keeping our economy open, we’re doing great.’”Mr. Kemp has little political incentive to wade into a messy episode. Most polls of the Georgia governor’s race show him running ahead of his Democratic opponent, Ms. Abrams. He has also polled better than Mr. Walker, who has appeared to be in a tighter race against Mr. Warnock.Still, the governor has implored his supporters not to trust the numbers as he continues to hold fund-raisers and support the state Republican Party’s grass-roots outreach efforts. On Wednesday, Mr. Kemp was focused on pitching a second term to Black men. Republicans in Georgia have made a strong effort to make more appeals to Black voters this year, hoping even tiny inroads with the solid Democratic constituency might make a difference in a close race.More than three dozen Black male business owners, entrepreneurs and party leaders gathered to listen to Mr. Kemp on Wednesday and asked questions largely related to business development and school choice. By the end of the event, its moderator, the Atlanta conservative radio host Shelley Wynter, asked if anyone present unsure of Mr. Kemp was “now sure” that they would support him. Several in the group raised their hands.In the interview afterward, Mr. Kemp said he believed the Republican Party in Georgia could have an opening with the state’s rapidly changing demographics.“I‘m proud of my record. I think we can earn a lot of minority votes with that,” he said. “And quite honestly, I think it will set the path for our party in the future.” More

    • 138 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      GOP Governor Candidate in Kansas Walks Abortion Tightrope in a Debate

      by

      As Republicans on the ballot this fall navigate treacherous terrain on abortion, Derek Schmidt, the party’s nominee for governor in Kansas, said in a debate on Wednesday that officials would “have to respect” the decision voters made in August to preserve abortion rights in the state.Mr. Schmidt, the state’s attorney general, said that if he were to be elected over Gov. Laura Kelly, a Democrat, he would defend the restrictions Kansas already has on the books, which include a ban on most abortions after 22 weeks. But, in contrast to Republicans in many other states and longtime conservative orthodoxy, he did not call for stricter ones.“Well, I am pro-life,” Mr. Schmidt said when asked what changes, if any, he would make to the state’s abortion laws if elected. “I prefer a Kansas that has fewer abortions, not more. Obviously, Kansas voters spoke to a portion of this issue in August and made the decision that any state involvement in this area is going to have to satisfy exacting judicial scrutiny, and we have to respect that decision going forward.”After those comments, which echoed remarks he made about a month ago, he turned his focus to Ms. Kelly, saying she had not identified “any limitation on abortion that she would support.”Kansans’ resounding vote against an amendment to remove abortion protections from the state’s constitution was the first to reveal the depths of the electoral backlash to the overturning of Roe v. Wade. Since then, Republican candidates have often sought to paint Democrats as out of step with public opinion by saying they support unlimited abortion policies, while dissociating themselves from the near-total bans that have taken effect in several states.Responding to the same question asked of Mr. Schmidt, Ms. Kelly said that “an overwhelming majority of Kansans” had expressed their support for abortion rights and added, “I believe and always have believed — and have been very consistent in my position on this — that a women’s medical decisions should be made between her, her family and her doctor, and that women should have bodily autonomy equal to that of men.”When Mr. Schmidt repeated his attack, Ms. Kelly did not engage.“I really for 18 years have had the same position on this issue,” she said. “So I really don’t have much more to say.”Ms. Kelly and Mr. Schmidt’s race is one of the most competitive governor’s races in the country this year. Nationally, many Democrats in close contests have seized on abortion as a campaign issue, while many Republicans have hastened away from it.A day earlier, former Gov. Paul LePage of Maine, a Republican, stumbled in his debate on Tuesday against Gov. Janet Mills, a Democrat, when she challenged him on abortion. More