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      Democrats Fret as Stacey Abrams Struggles in Georgia Governor’s Race

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      NEWNAN, Ga. — Georgia Democrats have grown increasingly pessimistic about Stacey Abrams’s chances of ousting Gov. Brian Kemp from office, pointing to her struggles to rally key parts of her party’s coalition and her inability to appeal to a slice of moderate Republican voters who can decide the state’s elections.Public and private polls have consistently shown her trailing Mr. Kemp, a Republican seeking a second term. And, in a particularly worrying sign for Ms. Abrams, polls also show she is drawing less support than the other high-profile Democrat on the ballot, Senator Raphael Warnock, who is seeking a first full term.The gap between the two Democrats, which is within the margin of error in some recent surveys and as wide as 10 points in others, highlights the extent of her struggles. Though she is beloved by Democratic voters, she has lost some ground with Black men, who provided crucial backing in her narrow loss to Mr. Kemp in 2018. And while Mr. Warnock draws some support from Republican moderates, Ms. Abrams — who has been vilified more by the G.O.P. than any other statewide figure — has shown little sign of peeling off significant numbers of disaffected Republicans.Ms. Abrams’s standing — consistently trailing Mr. Kemp in polls by around five percentage points — has alarmed Democrats who have celebrated her as the master strategist behind Georgia’s Democratic shift.For years, she worked to register and turn out Democratic voters, narrowly losing her first bid for governor in 2018 and helping fuel President Biden’s victory in 2020. Now, her struggles have some Georgia Democrats wondering if the Abrams model — seeking to expand the universe of voters to fit her politics — is truly better than trying to capture 50 percent of the voters who exist now.“Right now, people are concerned — kind of looking sideways,” said Erick Allen, a Democratic state representative, who said he hoped enthusiasm would pick up in the fall sprint. “There’s a lot of energy around the Warnock campaign. I’m not sure if the same energy that we had four years ago is around the Abrams campaign yet.”In an interview last week, Ms. Abrams defended her strategy, noting that her Democratic turnout operation helped carry the state for Mr. Biden, Mr. Warnock and Senator Jon Ossoff in the 2020 election cycle. “I imagine an electorate that is possible, not the electorate as if the election was held today,” she said.She and her top aides believe her standing is improving, buoyed by voter anger over the Supreme Court decision overturning the federal right to an abortion. She is planning a broader campaign to highlight Mr. Kemp’s signing of a 2019 law — which went into effect in July — that bans abortion in Georgia after the sixth week of pregnancy.Ms. Abrams’s allies said the comparisons between her and Mr. Warnock overlooked stark differences. Ms. Abrams is a Black woman contending with sexist stereotypes about leadership, they note. She is also running against an incumbent governor with a well-built political apparatus, while Mr. Warnock’s rival, the former football star Herschel Walker, is a political novice. (Both Mr. Kemp and Mr. Walker’s campaigns declined to comment.)“We have to work harder as women, as African American women,” said former Mayor Shirley Franklin of Atlanta, who added that women “just have a harder time capturing the imagination as executives.”The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Battleground Pennsylvania: Few states feature as many high-stakes, competitive races as Pennsylvania, which has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity.The Dobbs Decision’s Effect: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women signing up to vote has surged in some states and the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage are hard to see.How a G.O.P. Haul Vanished: Last year, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans was smashing fund-raising records. Now, most of the money is gone.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to former President Donald J. Trump or to adjust their stances on abortion.The Abrams and Warnock campaigns have pursued different strategies. Mr. Warnock is betting on winning over just enough moderate, white Republican voters to get himself past Mr. Walker. Ms. Abrams needs a big turnout from base Democrats and new voters to oust Mr. Kemp.Last week, Mr. Warnock demurred when asked by The New York Times during a news conference if he would campaign with Ms. Abrams, delivering the sort of practiced non-answer Democrats have been reciting when asked if they would welcome help from an unpopular President Biden.“The pundits want to know who I’m campaigning for and who I’m campaigning with,” Mr. Warnock said. “I’m focused on my campaign.”The next morning, Ms. Abrams announced she would join Mr. Warnock for a campaign stop that very afternoon.“We need Stacey Abrams,” Mr. Warnock told supporters at the event, calling her “a visionary leader” and “my dear friend.”Senator Raphael Warnock at a barbershop in Newnan, Ga. Polls suggest Mr. Warnock is ahead in his race, while Ms. Abrams is struggling to keep pace.Erik S Lesser/EPA, via ShutterstockDemocrats have largely kept quiet on their concerns about Ms. Abrams’s campaign. But several county elected officials and community leaders in Georgia have privately expressed their worries to the campaign directly, according to interviews with more than two dozen Democratic officials who asked not to be named discussing private conversations. They have complained that the campaign was slow to reach out to key constituencies and underestimated Mr. Kemp’s strength in an already difficult year for Democratic candidates.Ms. Abrams has in recent weeks focused attention on winning support from Black men, voters who have inched toward Republicans during the Trump era. More

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      How Michigan Resisted Far Right Extremism

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      ANN ARBOR, Mich. — A brutal plot to abduct the governor. An armed protest in the galleries of the State Capitol. A candidate for governor who stormed the halls of Congress — only to see his popularity rise.In Michigan, you can feel extremism creeping into civic life.Michigan is far from the only state in the grip of politicians who peddle disinformation and demonize their opponents. But it may also be the one best positioned to beat back the threat of political violence.Unlike, say, Arizona and Pennsylvania, two purple states where Republicans have also embraced a toxic brew of political violence and denialism, Michigan is home to voters who, to date, have avoided succumbing to the new conservative dogma, thanks in large part to its Democratic politicians, who have remained relentlessly focused on kitchen table issues. In that sense, Michigan may hold lessons for residents of other states looking to withstand the tide of authoritarianism and violence, restoring faith in the American institutions under siege from the right.Certainly, recent history is concerning. Although a jury last month convicted two men who plotted to kidnap Gov. Gretchen Whitmer over her Covid shutdown orders, that verdict came only after a jury in an earlier trial could not reach a unanimous verdict on the charges against them and acquitted two other co-defendants, despite chilling evidence that members of a militia group known as the Wolverine Watchmen had been building homemade bombs, photographing the underside of a bridge to determine how best to destroy it to slow a police pursuit and using night-vision goggles to surveil Ms. Whitmer’s vacation home.In that first trial, the defense argued that the F.B.I.’s informants had egged on the men, and it was persuasive enough to deadlock the jury. But I doubt the jurors would have been so receptive to that line of argument without Donald Trump persistently blasting government employees as “the deep state” and calling the conduct of the F.B.I. “a disgrace.”For the upcoming November elections, the G.O.P. nominees for attorney general and secretary of state are election deniers, and the candidate for governor has also cast doubt on the results of the 2020 vote for president. And not only are Republican candidates consumed with signaling an allegiance to Mr. Trump, but we are also seeing an alarming rise in political extremism in Michigan.In spring 2020, armed protesters demonstrated against Covid shutdown orders by occupying the galleries over the Senate chamber in the State Capitol while brandishing assault rifles. After the 2020 election, Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson faced a deluge of threats and harassment from election deniers, including an armed protest at her home, where a mob chanted “stop the steal” while she was inside with her 4-year-old son. Ryan Kelley, who sought the Republican nomination for governor, was charged with four misdemeanor offenses for his alleged role in the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol. After his involvement in the attack became well known, his polling numbers actually went up.Still, there is reason for some cautious optimism. In the Republican primary, voters rejected Mr. Kelley. An independent citizens redistricting commission has been created by a voter initiative to end the gerrymandering that has led to a Republican-controlled State Legislature. Recent polling shows Ms. Whitmer, Ms. Benson and Attorney General Dana Nessel, who are all Democrats, with comfortable leads as the general election approaches, and their resilience in the face of threats has only strengthened their political stock. And the convictions in the Whitmer kidnapping case show that 12 random people can still be found who will set aside their biases and decide a case based on the law and the facts they hear in court. My hunch is that there are more fair-minded people out there who will go to the polls in November.Governor WhitmerPatrick Semansky/Associated PressPragmatic problem-solving still seems to appeal to Michigan voters. Many families’ fortunes are tied inextricably to the auto industry, the health of which can swing sharply with every economic trend. Ms. Whitmer has championed economic development legislation that has helped create 25,000 auto jobs during her administration. She recently made a pitch to leverage federal legislation to lure companies to manufacture semiconductors in Michigan.In a state sometimes referred to as the birthplace of the middle class, labor unions carry more influence with working-class voters than the MAGA movement. From the rebirth of Detroit to the expansion of tourism Up North, Michigan is also a place that has long welcomed newcomers. Whether they be laborers on the assembly lines of Henry Ford or engineers for autonomous vehicles, workers from all over the world have always been needed and accepted as part of the work force, making it more difficult to demonize outsiders as “other.” As a result, voters tend to be less susceptible to the politics of fear that are driving the culture wars. Indeed, Ms. Whitmer was elected with a slogan to “Fix the Damn Roads.”Maybe it is a Midwestern sensibility, but Michiganders seem more interested in candidates who will help advance their financial bottom lines than those who traffic in conspiracy theories. And, four years later, Ms. Whitmer has fixed a lot of the damn roads.By focusing on economic outcomes of working families, Democrats in Michigan have managed to clinch not only the top state offices, but also the state’s two U.S. Senate seats.And while every state is different, politicians in other states could learn from Michigan to ignore the bait Republicans use to demonize them and focus on the bottom line issues that matter to voters.Barbara McQuade (@BarbMcQuade) is a professor of law at the University of Michigan. She served as the U.S. attorney for Michigan’s Eastern District from 2010 to 2017.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Maura Healey Could Make History in Run for Massachusetts Governor

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      Maura Healey, the barrier-breaking attorney general of Massachusetts, secured the Democratic nomination for governor on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, putting her on track to become the first woman to be elected governor in the state.If Ms. Healey wins in November, and if another Democrat running for governor of Oregon, Tina Kotek, also wins, they would become the first two openly lesbian governors in the country.Ms. Healey cleared the Democratic field earlier this summer in a state that has elected a string of moderate Republican governors but where Ms. Healey is favored this time, making Massachusetts one of the Democrats’ best opportunities to flip a governor’s seat.In the race to succeed Gov. Charlie Baker, Ms. Healey will face Geoff Diehl, a right-wing former state lawmaker who was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump and who defeated Chris Doughty, a businessman and more moderate Republican. Mr. Baker is a popular centrist Republican who decided against running for re-election after Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Mr. Diehl.“The choice in this election could not be more clear,” Ms. Healey told a crowd of supporters at a watch party in Dorchester earlier on Tuesday night, warning that whoever emerged from the Republican primary would “bring Trumpism to Massachusetts.” She added: “I will be a governor as tough as the state she serves.”Ms. Healey was the first openly gay attorney general in the nation — she was elected to that office in 2014 — and her history-making potential this year has energized some Democrats in a proudly progressive state that has never elected a woman to serve as governor. Jane M. Swift served as the state’s first female governor; as lieutenant governor she assumed the role after then-Gov. Paul Cellucci became ambassador to Canada in 2001.“For women who have been around for awhile, and for young women wanting to look up to what’s possible — I can’t believe this is actually happening,” Deb Kozikowski, the vice chair of the Massachusetts Democratic Party, said of Ms. Healey. “She’s breaking barriers right, left and sideways.”Ms. Kotek, the former speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives and the Democratic nominee for governor in that state, faces a more competitive race in November.“There are over 20 million openly L.G.B.T.Q. adults in this country as we speak right now, and in terms of elected officials to the highest seats in their states, or in this country, we still have work to do, right, to be represented,” said JoDee Winterhof, senior vice president for policy and political affairs at the Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest L.G.B.T.Q. rights organization. Referring to both Ms. Kotek and Ms. Healey, she added, “It’s really an exciting time that we would not only break the record, we would double the number on election night.” In another statewide race, Bill Galvin, a Democrat who has been Massachusetts’ secretary of state for more than 25 years, defeated a primary challenge on Tuesday. He had presented himself as an experienced hand who could protect the election system from right-wing interference. His opponent, Tanisha Sullivan, an N.A.A.C.P. branch president, had argued that Massachusetts should do more to increase voter participation among marginalized groups.And Andrea Campbell, a former Boston councilwoman, won the Democratic nomination for attorney general over Shannon Liss-Riordan, a labor lawyer — positioning Ms. Campbell to be the first Black woman elected to a statewide office in Massachusetts.Another milestone is likely after Kim Driscoll, the mayor of Salem, Mass., won the Democratic primary for lieutenant governor: No state has ever elected women to both the governorship and the lieutenant governorship at the same time. Voters in at least two other states — Republicans in Arkansas and Democrats in Ohio — also nominated women for both offices this year.Like other states in the East, Massachusetts has a track record of embracing Republican governors, such as Mr. Baker and Mitt Romney, despite the liberal bent of the electorate. But polls have shown Ms. Healey with a strong lead, as relative moderates like Mr. Baker and Mr. Romney find themselves increasingly isolated in a Republican Party lurching ever farther to the right. In her speech on Tuesday night, Ms. Healey praised Mr. Baker, saying he had “led with respect” and “refused to engage in the politics of division and destruction that we’ve seen across this country.” When she thanked him for his service to the state, the audience applauded.“Unfortunately, Geoff Diehl and Chris Doughty will put us on a different path,” she said, before the Republican race was called.Mr. Trump, who lost Massachusetts by 33.5 percentage points in the 2020 general election, attended a tele-rally for Mr. Diehl on Monday, declaring that Mr. Diehl would “rule your state with an iron fist” and push back on the “ultraliberal extremists.” Mr. Doughty, for his part, campaigned with moderates like Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire and was endorsed by the editorial board of The Boston Globe in the primary.“President Trump still has a powerful message and an impact on politics in Massachusetts,” said Jim Lyons, the chairman of the Massachusetts Republican Party, which formally backed Mr. Diehl.Mr. Diehl was the overwhelming favorite at the state Republican convention. His primary victory is the latest sign that Mr. Trump has refashioned the Republican Party in his image up and down the ballot and across the country, including in the Northeast, where moderate Republicans long thrived even as they shrank in number. Indeed, Mr. Baker, who defied Mr. Trump during his time in office and carved out a distinctive brand, has topped lists as the most popular governor in the country.On the other side of the aisle, Democratic-leaning women, in particular, have appeared especially energized since the overturning of Roe v. Wade earlier this summer.Ms. Healey, bolstered by a raft of endorsements from liberal organizations, labor and the political establishment, has had the field to herself since State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz exited the primary contest in June, although Ms. Chang-Díaz was still listed on the ballot. That has given Ms. Healey a significant runway to focus on the general election and to engage in down-ballot races. Ms. Healey, who was a college basketball captain at Harvard and played on a professional team overseas, has often used discussion of sports in her campaigns. In her Twitter bio, she describes herself as, among other things, a “baller.”“I believe in teamwork,” she said in a recent campaign ad. “I’ve seen it on the court and in the court as your attorney general.”During her time as attorney general, the state participated in major cases, including against Purdue Pharma for its role in the opioid addiction crisis, and in a climate-related investigation of Exxon. She has also focused on assisting student borrowers and homeowners, and drew national attention for repeatedly suing the Trump administration.“I have a message for President Trump,” she declared at the 2017 Women’s March in Boston, after Mr. Trump was inaugurated. “The message from the people of Massachusetts: We’ll see you in court.”She has also worked to recruit more women to become Democratic attorneys general. In the race to succeed her in the attorney general’s office, Ms. Healey endorsed Ms. Campbell.At her election night party, Ms. Healey alluded to her frustrations with a toxic political climate, saying that she was “tired of the anger” and of the division. “When we see what’s happening with the Supreme Court and across this country, we need to lead — this is a time when Massachusetts must lead,” Ms. Healey said.She wrapped up with a plea that nodded to her basketball days: “I ask you, as a former point guard, to leave it all with me on the court.” More

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      Geoff Diehl Wins the Republican Primary for Governor of Massachusetts

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      Geoff Diehl, a right-wing former state legislator endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, won the Republican primary for governor of Massachusetts, according to The Associated Press, making his party an enormous underdog to hold on to an office this fall that moderate Republicans have occupied for 24 of the last 32 years.Mr. Diehl defeated Chris Doughty, a centrist, self-funding businessman who argued that Mr. Diehl was running a campaign “targeted to Alabama voters” and could not win a general election in Massachusetts.Mr. Diehl, who lost the 2018 Senate election to Senator Elizabeth Warren by 24 points, is considered unlikely to pose a significant challenge to Maura Healey, the Massachusetts attorney general whose lone Democratic rival dropped out of the primary race in June. Ms. Healey has raised five times more money than has Mr. Diehl, and a Boston Globe poll in late July found she held a 30-point lead.With Illinois and Maryland, Massachusetts became the third heavily Democratic state — and the second with a departing Republican governor — to nominate a right-wing, Trump-endorsed candidate for governor over a more moderate rival. Republicans have also chosen Trump-backed candidates for governor in primaries in Arizona, Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, all narrowly divided states where whoever is elected in November will have enormous sway over how the 2024 presidential election is conducted.Mr. Diehl, who was a co-chairman of Mr. Trump’s 2016 primary campaign in Massachusetts, has adopted an array of positions common to Trump partisans, including repeating Mr. Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen from him. He chose Leah Cole Allen, a former state legislator who was fired from her job as a nurse after refusing to be vaccinated for the coronavirus, as his choice for lieutenant governor (although, in Massachusetts, ballots list the two offices separately).“He’ll rule your state with an iron fist,” Mr. Trump said of Mr. Diehl during a conference call with supporters Monday, using the same language he employed to praise China’s authoritarian leader, Xi Jinping, at a Pennsylvania rally Saturday. That argument has not won over Republican skeptics. “He’s not a good candidate,” said Ron Kaufman, a Republican National Committee member from Massachusetts. “He’s lost the last four elections he’s run in.”Mr. Diehl’s nomination could be a notch against the many successes by moderate Republicans in holding the top office in Massachusetts, including Bill Weld’s victory in 1990, Mitt Romney’s tenure and Gov. Charlie Baker’s two terms. Mr. Baker, who is more popular in polling among Democratic and independent voters than he is among fellow Republicans, chose not to seek re-election after Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Diehl last October. Massachusetts allows voters not registered with a party to weigh in on any primary. Republicans make up just 9 percent of registered voters in Massachusetts, according to data from the secretary of the commonwealth, though voters who do not have a party affiliation — about 60 percent of the electorate — are allowed to vote in either party’s primary.Mr. Doughty had sought to take up the mantle of moderate Republicans leading the state this year. Like Mr. Romney, he is a wealthy Mormon businessman who ran for office as a social moderate (though Mr. Romney changed some of his views when he ran for national office), vying to appeal to the state’s independent voters and serve as a check on Democrats, who have controlled the Massachusetts Legislature since 1959.But then Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Diehl, and the Massachusetts Republican Party followed. Mr. Doughty, who has said he voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016, had support from Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, another popular moderate Republican, but he failed to gain significant traction among the state’s independent voters, who have long boosted moderate Republicans in primaries.Mr. Diehl gave Mr. Doughty few opportunities to show the contrast between them. With a commanding lead in primary polling, Mr. Diehl refused to debate Mr. Doughty except on a conservative talk radio show hosted by one of his supporters. They met for one radio debate, in July, hosted by Howie Carr, a Boston radio host and Trump ally who initially backed Mr. Diehl and then last week threw his support to Mr. Doughty. More

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      What to Watch For in the Massachusetts Primaries

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      The 2022 primaries are almost, but not quite, over: Voters in Massachusetts go to the polls on Tuesday, the second-to-last election night of the primary season.With the exception of the governor’s race, the most competitive statewide contests are on the Democratic side.Here’s what to watch for.Maura Healey is poised to be governor.Democrats are confident that they can reclaim the governorship of Massachusetts in November with Maura Healey, the state attorney general, who is running essentially unopposed for the nomination. Ms. Healey’s last competitor, State Senator Sonia Chang-Díaz, ended her campaign in June, though her name remains on the ballot because she withdrew too late to take it off.Limited public polling has shown Ms. Healey with a large lead in the general election regardless of who her Republican opponent is, but her path may be smoothest if Geoff Diehl, a former state representative endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, wins the nomination over Chris Doughty, a moderate businessman.Liberal though it is, Massachusetts has a history of electing moderate Republicans to the governorship, as it did with Gov. Charlie Baker, who is not running for re-election. But Republican primary voters have largely rejected moderate candidates this year, and general-election voters in Massachusetts are unlikely to be receptive to a right-wing Republican like Mr. Diehl.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries winding down, both parties are starting to shift their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Battleground Pennsylvania: Few states feature as many high-stakes, competitive races as Pennsylvania, which has emerged as the nation’s center of political gravity.The Dobbs Decision’s Effect: Since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the number of women signing up to vote has surged in some states and the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage are hard to see.How a G.O.P. Haul Vanished: Last year, the campaign arm of Senate Republicans was smashing fund-raising records. Now, most of the money is gone.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to former President Donald J. Trump or to adjust their stances on abortion.There’s a three-way Democratic primary for lieutenant governor.Democrats have a competitive primary for lieutenant governor, with three candidates: State Senator Eric Lesser, a former staff member in the Obama administration; State Representative Tami Gouveia, who has a background in social work and public health; and Mayor Kim Driscoll of Salem, who has benefited from a remarkable $1.2 million in spending by a super PAC called Leadership for Mass.On the Republican side, two former state legislators are competing. Leah Cole Allen is aligned with Mr. Diehl, the Trump-endorsed candidate for governor, while Kate Campanale is aligned with Mr. Doughty. However, the races are separate on the ballot; the governor and lieutenant governor are not elected as running mates.A longtime secretary of state is being challenged.Tanisha Sullivan, the president of the N.A.A.C.P.’s Boston branch, is challenging Bill Galvin in the Democratic primary for secretary of state, an office Mr. Galvin has held for more than 25 years.Mr. Galvin is presenting himself as an experienced, tested hand who can protect Massachusetts’s election system from right-wing interference. Ms. Sullivan argues that the state should do more to increase participation among marginalized groups. She won the support of the state Democratic Party with more than 60 percent of the vote at a party convention earlier this year, but Mr. Galvin has led in the limited public polling of the race.The Republican primary has only one candidate, Rayla Campbell.The attorney general’s race has divided progressives.Two Democrats are seeking their party’s nomination for the position Ms. Healey is vacating, and the race has drawn attention from progressive leaders, who are unusually divided.Senator Edward J. Markey, Representative Ayanna S. Pressley and Ms. Healey have endorsed Andrea Campbell, a former Boston councilwoman. Senator Elizabeth Warren and Mayor Michelle Wu of Boston have endorsed Shannon Liss-Riordan, a labor lawyer who has worked on class-action lawsuits against Uber and other companies.A third Democratic candidate, Quentin Palfrey, is on the ballot but recently ended his campaign and endorsed Ms. Campbell. On the Republican side, Jay McMahon is running unopposed.Boston has a messy district attorney race.There are two candidates in the Democratic primary for the district attorney of Suffolk County, which includes Boston. The primary will determine the winner in November, because no Republicans are running. The incumbent, Kevin Hayden, has been criticized for his handling of a police misconduct investigation, which he says remains open. Ricardo Arroyo, the Boston councilor challenging Mr. Hayden, has been accused of sexual assault.Mr. Arroyo lost a slew of prominent endorsements — including from Ms. Warren, Mr. Markey, Ms. Pressley and Ms. Wu — after the allegations, which he denies, were made public. More

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      With Voters From Both Parties Energized, Campaigns Begin Fall Sprint

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      Republicans are focusing on pocketbook issues, and Democrats are emphasizing abortion rights, as Labor Day marks the start of the midterm elections’ final stretch.For two decades, midterm elections have served as a vehicle for voter discontent, a chance for Americans to punish the president, shake up a statehouse and express their anger with the party in power by costing them congressional seats and governor’s mansions.This year, though, the dissatisfaction has intensified and become something like a national anxiety disorder.With the pandemic receding, voters have been whipsawed by economic uncertainty, public safety concerns, lingering public health threats and shortages of everything from used cars to baby formula to teachers. The political upheaval around abortion rights, devastating gun violence, the F.B.I. investigation into former President Donald J. Trump and his continued lies about the 2020 election have heightened the sense that the country’s political system is deeply dysfunctional, if not headed toward collapse.Now, as the midterm contests enter the final campaign stretch after Labor Day, the election is shaping up to be a referendum on which party is more to blame for a country that has decidedly not returned to normal. From swing districts in sunny Southern California to the perennial political battlefields of Michigan’s Oakland County, candidates, voters and strategists from both parties describe an electorate that has lost its bearings.Donald Trump spoke at a convention in Washington, D.C., this summer, drawing protesters and supporters.Kenny Holston for The New York Times“Folks look around, and they feel like it’s been a really tough couple of years,” said Representative Josh Harder, a Democrat running for re-election in the agricultural Central Valley of California, where wealthy Bay Area tech workers have driven up housing prices. “Our message can’t be, ‘Look at what we’ve done. Everything is fine and dandy.’ We have to listen and then we have to respond.”The fundamentals — high inflation, an uncertain economy, the president’s dismal approval ratings — still favor Republicans, as do the recent shifts to the electoral map because of redistricting. But outrage over abortion rights, the passage in Congress of a series of economic and climate change bills and the continued dominance of Mr. Trump within his party have made some Democrats hopeful that they can triage some of their deepest losses.Expectations of a so-called red wave have moderated since the spring, with President Biden’s approval rating rising modestly and gas prices falling from record highs. In recent weeks, Democrats have gained a slight advantage in polling, though their lead remains in the margin of error in most surveys.They hope to make the election not a referendum on the unpopular president but rather a choice between “normal” and “extremism that threatens the very foundations of our Republic,” as Mr. Biden put it in a prime-time address on Thursday. Strong showings in special elections this summer have encouraged Democrats efforts to lean further into championing abortion rights and their message that the Republican Party is too extreme.Democratic victories in those special elections, typically sleepier summertime affairs, were driven by more engaged college-educated voters who were more energized by issues like abortion and gun control. But the midterm electorate may be more likely to mirror the governor’s races in Virginia and New Jersey last year. In those races, Republicans made gains after attracting a broader electorate that was more focused on economic issues and education — topics that remain the top issue for the largest number of voters.Inflation, which is affecting food prices, is just one powerful issue affecting voters.Hiroko Masuike/The New York TimesRepresentative Young Kim, a Republican who represents parts of Orange County in Southern California, said voters in her tightly contested district were regularly voicing concerns over what she sees as the failings of the Biden administration: the cost of living, border security and crime.“They talk about the highest inflation that they’ve ever seen and the rise of prices everywhere, from grocery stores to clothing stores to coffee shops,” Ms. Kim said. Asked about abortion rights and threats to democracy, Ms. Kim was dismissive: “I hear about those things very infrequently.”More Coverage of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsAn Upset in Alaska: Mary Peltola, a Democrat, beat Sarah Palin in a special House election, adding to a series of recent wins for the party. Ms. Peltola will become the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress.Evidence Against a Red Wave: Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, it’s hard to see the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage. A strong Democratic showing in a New York special election is one of the latest examples.G.O.P.’s Dimming Hopes: Republicans are still favored in the fall House races, but former President Donald J. Trump and abortion are scrambling the picture in ways that distress party insiders.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to Mr. Trump or to adjust their uncompromising stances on abortion.Strategists on both sides caution that the election environment remains deeply unpredictable.Energy prices could spike again this fall, and the prospect of a continuing increase in interest rates has many investors and economists predicting a recession. The F.B.I. investigation into Mr. Trump is expected to continue, which could mobilize partisans in either party. He has privately floated declaring his 2024 presidential candidacy in the fall, a prospect that worries some Republican leaders who believe such an early announcement would be an unnecessary — and politically divisive — distraction. And in the states, legislative battles over abortion rights will keep the issue front and center.A memorial at Robb Elementary School in Uvalde, Texas, for the victims of the mass shooting this year.Ivan Pierre Aguirre for The New York TimesSome voters say the instability has prompted them to grapple with decisions they never thought to make. How secure is your child’s school from shootings? Do you send your college student to school with abortion medication? Does the cost of beef make you skip over the butcher’s section in the grocery store?Dwight Pearson, a 60-year-old chef in Cincinnati, said he felt waves of shock this year, beginning with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. More

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      Trump Lashes Out in First Rally Since F.B.I. Search

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      Donald J. Trump and President Biden have both made recent appearances in Pennsylvania, one of the key states in November’s midterm elections.WILKES-BARRE TOWNSHIP, Pa. — In his first rally since his home was searched by the F.B.I. on Aug. 8, former President Donald J. Trump on Saturday lashed out at President Biden and federal agents, calling his Democratic rival “an enemy of the state” and the F.B.I. and the Department of Justice “vicious monsters.”In an aggrieved and combative speech in Pennsylvania, Mr. Trump stoked anger against law enforcement even as the F.B.I. and federal officials have faced an increase in threats following the search of Mr. Trump’s residence to retrieve classified documents. Mr. Trump’s remarks echoed the chain of similar, escalating attacks he wrote on his social media website this week, including posts that singled out one agent by name. That agent has retired, and his lawyers have said he did not have a role in the search. Although he faced criticism for the tirades, and some Republicans have warned about the political dangers in attacking law enforcement, the former president signaled he would yield no ground. His speech came two days after Mr. Biden warned that democratic values were under assault by forces loyal to Mr. Trump. The former president described Mr. Biden’s address as “the most vicious, hateful, and divisive speech ever delivered by an American president.” More Coverage of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsAn Upset in Alaska: Mary Peltola, a Democrat, beat Sarah Palin in a special House election, adding to a series of recent wins for the party. Ms. Peltola will become the first Alaska Native to serve in Congress.Evidence Against a Red Wave: Since the fall of Roe v. Wade, it’s hard to see the once-clear signs of a Republican advantage. A strong Democratic showing in a New York special election is one of the latest examples.G.O.P.’s Dimming Hopes: Republicans are still favored in the fall House races, but former President Donald J. Trump and abortion are scrambling the picture in ways that distress party insiders.Digital Pivot: At least 10 G.O.P. candidates in competitive races have updated their websites to minimize their ties to Mr. Trump or to adjust their uncompromising stances on abortion.“You’re all enemies of the state,” Mr. Trump told thousands of supporters at his rally, where he was campaigning for Pennsylvania Republicans, including State Senator Doug Mastriano, the right-wing nominee for governor, and Mehmet Oz, the celebrity television physician and Senate candidate. “He’s an enemy of the state, you want to know the truth,” he said of Mr. Biden.He told the crowd: “It was not just my home that was raided last month. It was the hopes and dreams of every citizen who I’ve been fighting for.”Mr. Trump described America as a nation in decline, a theme that has become a staple of his post-White House campaign rallies. In Pennsylvania, he again falsely claimed he won the 2020 election and tailored his speech to highlight a spate of recent murders in Philadelphia.Mr. Biden has also spent considerable time in Pennsylvania in recent days, underscoring the political significance this year of what may be the nation’s ultimate battleground state. He cast Trumpism as an urgent threat to the nation in Philadelphia, and he also spoke in Wilkes-Barre, near the arena where Mr. Trump appeared. He is expected in Pittsburgh on Monday for a Labor Day appearance.At the rally, Mr. Trump attacked the two Democratic candidates at the top of the ticket, Josh Shapiro for governor and John Fetterman for senator. More