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      Five Takeaways From Tuesday’s Elections

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      The biggest question heading into Tuesday’s primaries was whether Democrats would be successful in guiding Republican voters to choose weak nominees for the general election.In Illinois, Democrats’ biggest and most sustained investment succeeded, but in Colorado, Republicans chose candidates who didn’t have nominal primary support from across the aisle, setting up several general elections that are expected to be very competitive.Elsewhere, far-right candidates remade Republican politics down the ballot in Illinois, while incumbents who aren’t facing ethics inquiries coasted to victories. And a special election in Nebraska was far closer than anyone expected.Here are five takeaways from Tuesday’s contests across eight states.Democratic meddling in G.O.P. primaries produces results … sometimes.Democrats have determined that it’s much easier to win a general election if you can handpick your opponent — especially if that opponent happens to be a far-right Republican who can easily be painted as an extremist.So in Colorado and Illinois, they tried to help those sorts of candidates.Such meddling isn’t a new phenomenon — it rose to prominence in the 2012 Missouri Senate race — but Democrats have used the risky strategy this year to prop up a series of underfunded far-right candidates running against Republican establishment favorites who were seen as a greater threat to Democrats in November.On Tuesday, Democrats learned that it’s possible to elevate a flawed Republican if he already has a functioning campaign, but that they can’t make something out of nearly nothing.In Illinois, Gov. J.B. Pritzker, the billionaire Democrat, spent $35 million to stop Mayor Richard C. Irvin of Aurora, a moderate Republican, while promoting Darren Bailey, a far-right state senator who once vowed to kick Chicago out of the state.Mr. Pritzker at a deli in Chicago on Tuesday. He backed Mr. Bailey in the belief that he would be a weaker general-election candidate than Mayor Richard C. Irvin of Aurora, a moderate Republican.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesMr. Bailey had been campaigning for more than a year and had his own billionaire patron, the conservative megadonor Richard Uihlein. Mr. Pritzker did such a good job stamping out Mr. Irvin that the mayor placed a distant third, more than 40 percentage points behind Mr. Bailey.“Tonight, J.B. Pritzker won the Republican primary for governor here in Illinois,” Mr. Irvin said in a concession speech. “He spent a historic amount of money to choose his own Republican opponent, and I wish Darren Bailey well.”Key Results in New York’s 2022 Primary ElectionsOn June 28, New York held several primaries for statewide office, including for governor and lieutenant governor. Some State Assembly districts also had primaries.Kathy Hochul: With her win in the Democratic, the governor of New York took a crucial step toward winning a full term, fending off a pair of spirited challengers.Antonio Delgado: Ms. Hochul’s second in command and running mate also scored a convincing victory over his nearest Democratic challenger, Ana María Archila.Lee Zeldin: The congressman from Long Island won the Republican primary for governor, advancing to what it’s expected to be a grueling general election.N.Y. State Assembly: Long-tenured incumbents were largely successful in fending off a slate of left-leaning insurgents in the Democratic primary.But the same tactics didn’t work in Colorado, where a shadowy Democratic group spent nearly $4 million attacking Joe O’Dea, a construction executive who supports some abortion rights, while trying to aid Ron Hanks, a far-right state representative who didn’t spend anything on television advertising.Mr. Hanks’s threadbare campaign raised just $124,000 — a pittance that in many places can barely pay for a competitive state legislative race. Democrats couldn’t help lift Mr. Hanks to victory if he couldn’t help himself.Mr. O’Dea now figures to give Colorado Democrats what they feared: a competitive general-election contest against Senator Michael Bennet, who has privately told people his race will be difficult.Colorado Republicans reject two election deniers.Not since Georgia’s elections over a month ago have Republican primary voters summarily rejected a slate of 2020 election deniers — but those contests were colored by former President Donald J. Trump’s failed quest for vengeance against Gov. Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger.In two statewide races in Colorado, Republicans had a choice between a candidate who accepted the outcome of the 2020 election and one or more whose campaigns were animated by their rejection of the legitimacy of Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s victory.In both cases, voters chose the candidate tethered to reality.In the Senate race, Mr. O’Dea accepted the results of the election, while Mr. Hanks predicated his campaign on denying them. In a video announcing his campaign last year, Mr. Hanks shot a gun at what appeared to be a photocopier labeled as a Dominion voting machine.Joe O’Dea, a Republican who supports some abortion rights and accepts the outcome of the 2020 election, won his party’s nomination for Senate in Colorado.David Zalubowski/Associated PressAnd in the Republican primary for secretary of state, Tina Peters, the Mesa County clerk, who is under indictment in relation to a scheme to find evidence that the 2020 election was fraudulent, placed third in a contest in which she was the best-known candidate.Ms. Peters and the second-place finisher, Mike O’Donnell, who has also promoted 2020 falsehoods, combined to win a majority of the vote, but both placed well behind Pam Anderson, a longtime local election official.The Colorado races are hardly emblematic of Republican voters nationwide. In Illinois, Mr. Bailey and Representative Mary Miller, who both refused to accept the 2020 results, strolled to victory in their primaries. New York Republicans gave nearly two-thirds of their primary vote for governor to Representative Lee Zeldin and Andrew Giuliani, who have also cast doubt on the results.It’s Darren Bailey’s party in Illinois.Mr. Bailey, the newly minted Republican nominee for governor of Illinois, didn’t just trounce a field of better-funded candidates (with a lot of help from Mr. Pritzker). His coattails extended down the ballot to lift an array of like-minded conservatives.Throughout Central and Southern Illinois, signs read “Trump-Bailey-Miller,” highlighting the alliance between the former president, Mr. Bailey and Ms. Miller. The congresswoman, who apologized last year after making an approving reference to Hitler, won her primary against Representative Rodney Davis after the two were drawn into a district together.Down the ballot, Mr. Bailey’s personal lawyer and traveling campaign companion, Thomas DeVore, was leading the Republican primary for attorney general over Steve Kim, a former staff member for Gov. Jim Edgar.Supporters of Mr. Bailey at his election night party in Effingham, Ill. Jim Vondruska/Getty ImagesA few of Mr. Bailey’s picks in state legislative races defeated rivals backed by campaign cash from Kenneth Griffin, the Chicago billionaire and chief benefactor of the Illinois Republican Party.One of Mr. Bailey’s chosen candidates for the Illinois House, Bill Hauter, a pediatric anesthesiologist at a hospital in Peoria, campaigned on a platform opposing public health restrictions to stem the coronavirus pandemic.Early Wednesday, Dr. Hauter was up by double digits in his open-seat primary for a Central Illinois district against a candidate funded in part by millions of dollars Mr. Griffin spread across the state to support moderate, establishment-friendly candidates in down-ballot primaries.“I’m up against a lot of money,” Dr. Hauter said in an interview at a Bailey campaign stop last week in Lincoln, Ill. “But money is not the motivation. It’s not message, it’s not supporters, it’s not enthusiasm. It’s not all these things that you need.”It still requires special circumstances to oust an incumbent.In New York, Gov. Kathy Hochul fended off two challengers. Her late-in-the-game lieutenant governor, Antonio Delgado, also coasted.And in other states, several members of Congress who were thought to be endangered prevailed:Representative Michael Guest of Mississippi, a Republican who was dogged by his vote for a commission to investigate the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol;Representative Blake Moore of Utah, a Republican who allied himself with Senator Mitt Romney and Representative Liz Cheney, who are now apostates for much of their party;Representative Danny K. Davis of Illinois, a Democrat who narrowly held off a spirited campaign from a progressive challenger.Republican senators in Oklahoma and Utah also had little trouble winning renomination.But there are lines voters won’t let candidates cross. Representative Steven Palazzo, a Mississippi Republican, lost a runoff after the Office of Congressional Ethics concluded he had misused campaign money, including directing $80,000 toward a waterfront home he was trying to sell.Mr. Palazzo fell to Mike Ezell, a sheriff.Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York, center, after easily winning her Democratic primary on Tuesday.Desiree Rios/The New York TimesIn New York, Ms. Hochul was never believed to be in danger against her two challengers, one more liberal and one more conservative than she is.But Mr. Delgado’s victory was less assured. He faced a robust challenge from Ana María Archila, a former immigrant rights activist who made her name confronting Senator Jeff Flake in a Senate elevator during the Supreme Court confirmation hearings for Justice Brett M. Kavanaugh.Mr. Delgado, who joined Ms. Hochul’s administration in May after his predecessor resigned in scandal, still took about 60 percent of the vote in a three-way race.Surprisingly close, but no cigar, for Nebraska Democrats.Few outside the Cornhusker State paid much attention to the special election to fill the House seat vacated by former Representative Jeff Fortenberry, who resigned after he was convicted of lying to federal investigators. It was widely assumed that Mike Flood, a Republican state senator, would coast in Tuesday’s special election and again in November.But the combination of a low-turnout contest, an under-the-radar effort from local Democrats and anger over the Supreme Court’s decision last week ending the constitutional right to an abortion led the Democrat in the race, State Senator Patty Pansing Brooks, to come within a few points of Mr. Flood in a district Mr. Trump carried by double digits in 2020.“Nebraskans turned out to send a very loud and clear message that access to abortion services must be legal and protected,” said Jane Kleeb, the Nebraska Democratic Party chairwoman. “We can and will win in red states.”Mr. Flood and Ms. Pansing Brooks will face off again in November, and the incumbent will again be a heavy favorite. More

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      Hochul and Zeldin Will Face Off in the Fall

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul cruised to victory in the Democratic race but could face a tough fight in November.Good morning. It’s Wednesday. We’re following two stories — the results in the New York primaries for governor, and Ghislaine Maxwell’s 20-year prison sentence for serving as Jeffrey Epstein’s enabler.Hiram Durán for The New York TimesGov. Kathy Hochul cruised to victory in the Democratic primary. The race was called by The Associated Press 25 minutes after the polls closed, cementing Hochul’s place as the state’s top Democrat after less than a year in the state’s top job.She withstood challenges from Democratic opponents on her left and her right — Representative Thomas Suozzi, who made crime and public safety his main issues, and Jumaane Williams, the New York City public advocate, who said she had not addressed problems like soaring housing prices.As my colleague Nicholas Fandos writes, Hochul’s victory set the stage for a potentially bruising fall campaign against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative congressional ally of former President Donald Trump who defeated three other Republicans in their primary. With warning lights flashing for Democrats nationally, Zeldin and his supporters hope they can build on discontent about inflation and crime and win a statewide race in New York for the first time in 20 years.The Democratic contest for lieutenant governor also went Hochul’s way: Her handpicked running mate, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, survived a challenge from Ana María Archila, a progressive activist who was aligned with Williams and had been endorsed by Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez. Diana Reyna, Suozzi’s running made, was on track to finish in third place.For Hochul, who took office less than a year ago after the resignation of Andrew Cuomo amid a sexual harassment scandal, victory in the primary was a crucial step toward winning a full term in November. She has plenty of money at her disposal, having amassed roughly $34 million in donations as of late last week.She spent the final days of the campaign presenting herself as a protector of liberal values in the wake of landmark Supreme Court rulings on abortion rights and gun regulations. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, stood, symbolically, under a glass ceiling at a victory party in Manhattan. “To the women of New York,” she declared, “this one’s for you.”“We cannot and will not let right-wing extremists set us backwards on all the decades of progress we’ve made right here,” she added, “whether it’s a Trump cheerleader running for the governor of the state of New York or Trump-appointed justices on the Supreme Court.”Zeldin defeated Andrew Giuliani, who had captured far-right support based on his connections to former President Trump, his former boss, and his lineage as the son of former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani. Zeldin also beat Rob Astorino, the party’s nominee for governor in 2014, and Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist who spent more than more than $10 million of his own money on the race.WeatherExpect a sunny day with a high near the mid-80s. In the evening, it will be mostly clear with temperatures around the high 60s.ALTERNATE-SIDE PARKINGIn effect until Monday (Independence Day).The latest New York newsJacquelyn Martin/Associated PressPoliticsRoe v. Wade fallout: Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez is calling for an investigation into whether two Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn Roe v. Wade should be impeached for “lying under oath” at their confirmation hearings.Gun laws: New York lawmakers will consider creating weapon-free zones and making handgun bans the default condition in businesses, and New Jersey might require those who carry to be insured.More local newsSchool budget cuts: New York City public school funding is tied to student enrollment, and students have been leaving city schools in droves for years. Now, the city is saying schools must make cuts.R. Kelly trial: The former R&B singer R. Kelly will be sentenced in Brooklyn federal court on Wednesday for commanding a vast scheme to recruit women, as well as underage girls and boys, for sex.Rudolph Giuliani: Mayor Eric Adams said the Staten Island district attorney should investigate former Mayor Rudolph Giuliani for falsely reporting a crime after video footage undermined Giuliani’s allegations that he had been physically assaulted by a supermarket worker.Arts & CultureGlobal jazz: Jazz at Lincoln Center’s 35th season will present 22 programs from late September through next June, and feature performers from five continents.The Met’s chief executive steps down: Daniel Weiss will step down in June 2023 as president and chief executive of the Metropolitan Museum of Art.Food crawl? Try swimming: A dedicated band of swimmers (and eaters) explores New York restaurants by water, with lunch as the reward.Maxwell sentenced to 20 yearsGhislaine Maxwell, right, and the financier Jeffrey Epstein.U.S. District Court for the Southern District of New York/AFP, via Getty ImagesGhislaine Maxwell is the well-traveled former socialite who once hobnobbed with presidents, princes, moguls and magnates — and who was convicted last year of sex trafficking for conspiring with Jeffrey Epstein to exploit and abuse underage girls. On Tuesday, saying that “the damage done to these young girls was incalculable,” Judge Alison Nathan sentenced Maxwell to 20 years in prison.Nathan also imposed a $750,000 fine, noting that Epstein had left Maxwell a $10 million bequest, money one of Maxwell’s lawyers said she has not received. The disgraced financier was awaiting his own trial on sex trafficking charges when he hanged himself in a Manhattan jail cell in August 2019, leaving his culpability unresolved forever.Bobbi Sternheim, one of Maxwell’s lawyers, said Maxwell would appeal, adding that Maxwell had been “vilified” and “pilloried” and “tried and convicted in the court of public opinion.” She suggested that jurors had treated Maxwell as a stand-in for Epstein, who Sternheim said had escaped accountability: “Clever and cunning to the end, Jeffery Epstein left Ghislaine Maxwell holding the whole bag.”The sentencing served as a bookend to a lurid case that spotlighted a world where the halo of glamour concealed the routine infliction of intimate, life-changing cruelty. The case against Maxwell showed how she and Epstein used wealth and status to exploit women and girls as young as 14 years old. Prosecutors said she recruited them for him.The judge said Maxwell was “not being punished in place of Epstein or as a proxy for Epstein,” calling what Maxwell did “heinous and predatory.”Maxwell’s British-accented voice was heard for the first time since her arrest nearly two years ago. Standing at the lectern in blue prison scrubs, her ankles shackled, she acknowledged “the pain and the anguish” of the women who had addressed the court at the sentencing hearing.But she stopped short of apologizing or taking responsibility for the crimes for which she was convicted.Understand the Ghislaine Maxwell CaseCard 1 of 5An Epstein confidant. More

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      Gov. Hochul Cruises to Democratic Primary Win in New York

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul of New York took a crucial step toward winning a full term on Tuesday, easily fending off a pair of spirited primary challengers and cementing her status as the state’s top Democrat less than a year after she unexpectedly took office.The runaway victory by Ms. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, sets the stage for what could be a grueling general election contest against Representative Lee Zeldin, a conservative congressional ally of former President Donald J. Trump who beat out three fellow Republicans in a gritty race for his party’s nomination.Ms. Hochul enters the November contest with deep structural advantages: She has the power of the governor’s office and overflowing campaign accounts, her party enjoys a more than two-to-one registration advantage and Republicans have not won statewide in New York since Gov. George E. Pataki secured a third term in 2002.But with warning signs flashing red for Democrats nationally and New Yorkers in a dour mood over elevated crime and skyrocketing prices for housing, gas and a week’s groceries, both parties were preparing to run as if even deep blue New York could be in play this fall.The general election contest promises to have sweeping implications that ripple well beyond New York in the aftermath of two recent landmark Supreme Court decisions that ended the federal right to an abortion and curtailed New York’s ability to regulate firearms. The state has long been a safe haven for abortion and had one of the most restrictive laws regulating firearms, positions Mr. Zeldin and Mr. Giuliani oppose and could try to change if one of them wins.With that fight looming, Democratic primary voters on Tuesday chose Ms. Hochul, a middle-of-the-road incumbent who spent the campaign’s final weeks casting herself as a steady protector of the state’s liberal values — if not the firebrand or soaring orator who have found success in other races.“We cannot and will not let right-wing extremists set us backward on all the decades of progress we’ve made right here, whether it’s a Trump cheerleader running for the governor of the State of New York or Trump’s appointed justices on the Supreme Court,” Ms. Hochul told supporters at a victory party in TriBeCa in Manhattan.Standing, symbolically, under a glass ceiling, a jubilant Ms. Hochul added that she stood “on the shoulders of generations of women” in her effort to become the first to win the governorship.Ms. Hochul planned to quickly return to Albany, where she has called the Legislature back for a rare special session to respond to the Supreme Court ruling invalidating a century-old state gun control law.The race was called by The Associated Press 25 minutes after the polls closed in New York.Ms. Hochul had won 67 percent of the Democratic primary vote, with 50 percent of the expected vote counted. Jumaane D. Williams, the left-leaning New York City public advocate, had won 21 percent of the vote. Representative Thomas R. Suozzi, a Long Island moderate who ran an aggressively adversarial campaign focused on cutting crime and taxes, won 12 percent of the vote.A Guide to New York’s 2022 Primary ElectionsAs prominent Democratic officials seek to defend their records, Republicans see opportunities to make inroads in general election races.Governor’s Race: Gov. Kathy Hochul is trying to fend off energetic challenges from two fellow Democrats, while the four-way G.O.P. contest has been playing in part like a referendum on Donald J. Trump.Where the Candidates Stand: Ahead of the primaries for governor on June 28, our political reporters questioned the seven candidates on crime, taxes, abortion and more.Maloney vs. Nadler: New congressional lines have put the two stalwart Manhattan Democrats — including New York City’s last remaining Jewish congressman — on a collision course in the Aug. 23 primary.15 Democrats, 1 Seat: A newly redrawn House district in New York City may be one of the largest and most freewheeling primaries in the nation.Offensive Remarks: Carl P. Paladino, a Republican running for a House seat in Western New York, recently drew backlash for praising Adolf Hitler in an interview dating back to 2021.Democratic voters also rewarded Ms. Hochul’s handpicked lieutenant governor and running mate, Antonio Delgado, who survived a spirited challenge from Ana María Archila, a progressive activist aligned with Mr. Williams. Mr. Suozzi’s running mate, Diana Reyna, was also on track to finish third.Mr. Delgado, a former Hudson Valley congressman, was only sworn in a month ago after the governor’s first lieutenant, Brian A. Benjamin, resigned in the face of federal bribery charges and after Ms. Hochul pushed for a legal change to get him on the ballot.His victory was a the night’s second significant disappointment for progressives, who saw Ms. Archila as their best shot at winning statewide office this year. Ultimately, she could not overcome the vast financial and institutional advantages that helped Mr. Delgado blanket TVs and radios in advertising.Primaries in other statewide races — for U.S. Senate, state attorney general, comptroller and the Republican nominee for lieutenant governor — were uncontested.Turnout was relatively low across the state, especially compared with 2018. Combined with President Biden’s slumping approval ratings, Ms. Hochul’s relative newness to office and strong Republican performances last fall in Virginia, New Jersey and on Long Island, the figures were enough to give Democrats cause for concern as they pivoted toward a general election.“Democrats better not take this for granted because Lee Zeldin is a wolf in sheep’s clothing,” said Isaac Goldberg, a New York Democratic strategist not working on the race. “He will appeal well to his fellow suburbanites who don’t know how far right he truly is.”Mr. Zeldin, 42, defeated Andrew Giuliani, who had captured far-right support based on his connections to Mr. Trump, his former boss, and the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani, his father. Mr. Zeldin had 42 percent of the vote, with 55 percent of expected votes reported.He also beat Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist who burned more than $10 million of his own money into his campaign, and Rob Astorino, the party’s 2014 nominee for governor.The victory was a triumph for the state’s Republican establishment, which threw money and support behind Mr. Zeldin early — a wager that a young Army veteran with a track record of winning tight races on eastern Long Island could appeal to the independents and disaffected Democrats that Republicans need to sway in New York to have a path to victory.Mr. Zeldin has tried to orient his campaign around bipartisan fears about public safety and inflation, promising to open up the state’s Southern Tier to fracking natural gas, reverse the state’s cashless bail law and end coronavirus vaccine requirements, while accusing Ms. Hochul of doing too little to restore public safety.BDemocrats have already started amplifying Mr. Zeldin’s more conservative positions on guns (Mr. Zeldin once said he opposed New York’s red-flag law), abortion rights (he celebrated last week’s Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade), and, above all, his embrace of Mr. Trump and vote on Jan. 6, 2021, to overturn the results of the presidential election in key swing states.No Republican candidate who opposes abortion rights has won New York’s top office in the half-century since the state legalized abortion.For Ms. Hochul, 63, Tuesday’s vote was the first major test of electoral strength since she unexpectedly came to power last August, when Mr. Cuomo resigned as governor in the face of sexual harassment allegations.A Buffalo native in a party dominated by New York City Democrats, Ms. Hochul had spent much of career toiling in relative obscurity, briefly as a congresswoman from western New York and for nearly six years as Mr. Cuomo’s lieutenant governor.She moved quickly to establish herself as a political force as much as a governing one, leaving little doubt that she was the Democratic front-runner. She won the endorsement of nearly every major Democrat and labor union, assembled a $34 million war chest to vastly outspend her opponents on TV and glossy mailers and took pains to balance the concerns of Black and progressive lawmakers and New Yorkers fearful of crime when pushing for a set of modest changes to the state’s bail laws this spring.She had to withstand aggressive critiques from Mr. Suozzi on her right and Mr. Williams on her left, who argued that she was doing too little to address soaring housing prices or crime and portrayed the governor as another creature of Albany’s corrupt establishment.Polls also showed that Ms. Hochul’s decision to spend hundreds of millions of taxpayer dollars on a new stadium for the Buffalo Bills was especially unpopular with voters. Like fears about public safety, the deal could re-emerge as a campaign issue this fall.But in the primary contest, at least, it did not matter. Ms. Hochul’s winning margin and coalition closely resembled the ones that sent Mr. Cuomo to Albany for three terms: a strong showing in the New York City suburbs; upstate strongholds in Albany, Buffalo and Rochester; and among Black and Latino voters in New York City.There were also signs that her emphasis on abortion and guns was resonating with voters she will need to turn out in November.“We need someone who can stand up for women’s rights and safety in our schools and a cleaner environment,” said Rebecca Thomas, a financial consultant who cast her vote Tuesday morning in Manhattan’s Battery Park City, at the same site where Mr. Giuliani cast his ballot.Of her fellow voter, she added: “Wrong person, wrong time.”Téa Kvetenadze More

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      Lee Zeldin Captures Republican Primary for N.Y. Governor

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      Representative Lee M. Zeldin, a four-term congressman from Long Island, won the Republican primary for governor of New York on Tuesday, fending off a spirited challenge in a four-way race where fealty to conservative values — and Donald J. Trump — proved critical.Mr. Zeldin, 42, will face Gov. Kathy Hochul in November in a contest that Republicans hope will break a two-decade losing streak in statewide races. Ms. Hochul easily won her primary, but has suffered from middling poll numbers in recent months amid voters’ concerns about crime and the economy.Mr. Zeldin was the putative favorite in the primary, having won the backing of state leaders at a convention this winter, held not far from his district.But that imprimatur did not stop three other Republicans from mounting monthslong efforts to gain the nomination via the primary: Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County executive making his second run for governor; Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani; and Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist.Each had tried to find a lane to challenge Mr. Zeldin, with Mr. Astorino emphasizing his executive experience, and Mr. Wilson leaning into his economic bona fides. Mr. Giuliani, however, was perhaps the candidate who drew the most attention, a newcomer making his first run for public office, leaning on his father and his experience working for four years in the Trump administration.A Guide to New York’s 2022 Primary ElectionsAs prominent Democratic officials seek to defend their records, Republicans see opportunities to make inroads in general election races.Governor’s Race: Gov. Kathy Hochul is trying to fend off energetic challenges from two fellow Democrats, while the four-way G.O.P. contest has been playing in part like a referendum on Donald J. Trump.Where the Candidates Stand: Ahead of the primaries for governor on June 28, our political reporters questioned the seven candidates on crime, taxes, abortion and more.Maloney vs. Nadler: New congressional lines have put the two stalwart Manhattan Democrats — including New York City’s last remaining Jewish congressman — on a collision course in the Aug. 23 primary.15 Democrats, 1 Seat: A newly redrawn House district in New York City may be one of the largest and most freewheeling primaries in the nation.Offensive Remarks: Carl P. Paladino, a Republican running for a House seat in Western New York, recently drew backlash for praising Adolf Hitler in an interview dating back to 2021.Mr. Zeldin had won about 42 percent of the Republican primary vote, with a little more than 40 percent of the expected vote counted. He was followed by Mr. Giuliani with some 24 percent; 19 percent for Mr. Astorino; and about 14 percent for Mr. Wilson. The race was called by The Associated Press about 90 minutes after the polls had closed.Mr. Giuliani had openly courted the right-wing vote, voicing belief in Mr. Trump’s baseless claims that he won the 2020 election and promising to emulate the former president, and his father, if elected governor. The primary had little definitive polling, but some surveys had shown Mr. Giuliani running a close second, or even surpassing, Mr. Zeldin in the closing weeks of the campaign.For his part, Mr. Zeldin had also hewed closely to Mr. Trump’s policies when he was president, going so far as to vote to to overturn the results of the 2020 election in key swing states. As a candidate for governor, Mr. Zeldin has somewhat moderated those conservative opinions — voicing skepticism about outlawing abortion in New York, for instance, and giving only muted support to the idea of another Trump candidacy — yet still managed to appeal to the die-hard Republican voters who typically vote in primaries.The resulting general election campaign will still be an uphill climb for Mr. Zeldin, considering that registered Democratic voters outnumber Republicans by more than two to one in New York. In order to win in November, Mr. Zeldin will need not only to galvanize his base but also to attract moderate swing voters who may be dissatisfied with Democrats, including President Biden and Ms. Hochul.No Republican has been elected governor in the state since George Pataki defeated Carl McCall, a Democrat, and a billionaire third-party candidate, Tom Golisano, in 2002. The three most recent contests were easily won by Andrew M. Cuomo, a Democrat who served until his resignation last August.Mr. Zeldin, who is married with twin daughters, has since 2015 represented the eastern part of Long Island, encompassing a mix of suburban districts that could be critical in a general election. In 2021, Democrat-backed changes to bail laws, for instance, were potent issues for Republicans on Long Island, leading to a surge of wins in elections in Nassau County, adjacent to Mr. Zeldin’s district.A precocious legal student — he became a lawyer at 23 — Mr. Zeldin also served in the U.S. Army as an intelligence officer and prosecutor, as well as being deployed to Iraq with the 82nd Airborne in 2006. He still serves in the Army Reserve.His stump speech has included both a raft of policy plans — including allowing fracking, cutting taxes and fighting crime — and a call to arms for his party.“I’m not in this race to win a primary,” Mr. Zeldin said, in a recent interview. “I’m in this race to win in November.” More

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      Under Court’s Shadow, N.Y. Governor Candidates Lob Final Pitches

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      Rulings on abortion and guns shape the final weekend of campaigning before Tuesday’s primary.A pair of seismic rulings by the Supreme Court jolted the race for governor of New York on Sunday, as Democrats and Republicans made final pitches to an electorate that found itself at the center of renewed national debates over guns and abortion rights.All three Democratic candidates for governor fanned out Sunday morning to Black churches in Harlem and Queens, Manhattan’s Pride March and street corners across the city to denounce the rulings and promise an aggressive response.“We’re going to pass a law that’s going to say, you can’t bring a weapon into this church on a Sunday,” Gov. Kathy Hochul, the Democratic front-runner, assured congregants at Greater Allen African Methodist Episcopal Cathedral of New York in Jamaica, Queens.“I don’t want those guns on subways, either,” she added. “I don’t want them in playgrounds. I don’t want them near schools.”The Republican candidates, who mostly lauded both rulings, generally stuck to other messages with broad appeal to a state where both abortion rights and gun control are popular — attacking Ms. Hochul for New York’s rising inflation and elevated crime rates.But in at least one episode, the abortion issue was hard to avoid. Rudolph W. Giuliani, the former mayor of New York City, said that he was slapped in the back by a grocery store employee referencing abortion on Sunday afternoon while he was campaigning for his son, Andrew, on Staten Island.“The one thing he said that was political was ‘you’re going to kill women, you’re going to kill women,’” said Mr. Giuliani, who said he understood the remark to be a reference to the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade on Friday.The police, who did not confirm the abortion remark, said a suspect was in custody but had not been charged. The younger Mr. Giuliani was not on hand.Equal parts exuberance and frustration, the final pitches roughly hewed the battle lines that were drawn months ago in races that have been punctuated by violent tragedies — like the racist attack at a Buffalo supermarket in May — and buffeted by quality-of-life concerns.Wendy Dominski of Youngstown, N.Y., left, exchanged a blown kiss with Andrew Giuliani as he arrived at Lebanon Valley Speedway in New Lebanon, N.Y.Cindy Schultz for The New York TimesOnly this time, the fights played out in the shadow of the Supreme Court decisions issued in recent days on abortion rights and New York’s ability to regulate firearms. The rulings have injected a fresh dynamic into the races and appear to have given Democrats a new sense of urgency.Ms. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, put both rulings at the center of her weekend hopscotch across the city, highlighting her decisions to spend $35 million to aid abortion access and call lawmakers back to Albany next week for a special legislative session to address the justices’ decision to overturn a 100-year-old New York law limiting the ability to carry concealed weapons.Hours after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade on Friday, the governor raced to a protest in Manhattan’s Union Square, promising thousands of New Yorkers that New York would be a “safe harbor” for abortion under her leadership.In a show of her standing with the state’s Democratic establishment, Ms. Hochul and her running mate, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, also trotted out powerful Democratic surrogates. Mayor Eric Adams campaigned with them in Brooklyn on Saturday, and Representative Gregory W. Meeks, the chairman of the Queens Democratic Party who has prodded her to put together a more diverse campaign, accompanied her to church on Sunday.“I’m not telling you who to vote for,” Ms. Hochul teased in Jamaica. “You’re not supposed to do that in church.”Some voters said they were already impressed.“Thus far, I’ve been happy with what she’s done,” said Shirley Gist, a 74-year-old retired speech pathologist who voted early for Ms. Hochul on Saturday. “If it isn’t broken, don’t fix it.”Governor Hochul campaigned at the Greater Allen A.M.E. Cathedral of New York in Queens on Sunday.Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesJumaane D. Williams, New York City’s left-leaning public advocate, and Representative Thomas R. Suozzi, who is running to Ms. Hochul’s right, did their best at a Sunday appearance at Abyssinian Baptist Church in Harlem to convince the uncommitted of just the opposite.“I’m a common-sense Democrat. I’m tired of far left, and I’m tired of crazy right,” Mr. Suozzi said in remarks where he tied himself to Mr. Adams’s crime-fighting plans and pledged to cut taxes and improve public education. He knocked Ms. Hochul for accepting support from the National Rifle Association in past campaigns — an affiliation she has since disavowed.Mr. Williams did not explicitly address the Supreme Court decisions but laid blame nonetheless at the feet of Democratic power structure.“I have to be clear, Democratic leadership has failed this time,” he said. “They failed to act.”Still, it was far from clear that the attacks would be enough to turn the tide against Ms. Hochul, who is spending millions of dollars more in advertising than either primary opponent and holds a large lead in public polls. In fact, some Democrats predicted that backlash to the Supreme Court rulings would only help Ms. Hochul, a moderate from Buffalo who only took office last summer.“What can the two Democratic challengers do?” said former Gov. David A. Paterson. “They can’t be against it, so they have to kind of sit and watch.”He predicted a comfortable win for Ms. Hochul: “When people are embattled, they tend to vote more pragmatically,” he said.Democrats will also decide on a candidate for lieutenant governor on Tuesday. Mr. Delgado has ample institutional support, but he faces a pair of spirited challenges from Ana María Archila, a progressive activist aligned with Mr. Williams, and Diana Reyna, a more moderate Democrat running with Mr. Suozzi.Jumaane Williams, the New York City public advocate, said Democratic leadership has failed.Craig Ruttle/Associated PressThe winner will face Alison Esposito, a Republican and longtime New York City police officer.The Republican race for governor has been considerably more lively — full of name-calling, increasing disdain and sharper policy differences between the candidates. But with scant public polling available and most of the candidates still struggling to establish name recognition with primary voters, even the state’s most-connected Republicans were scratching their heads.“I have no idea how this turns out,” said John J. Faso, a former Republican congressman and the party’s 2006 nominee for governor.With Mr. Giuliani and Harry Wilson nipping at his heels, Representative Lee Zeldin, the presumptive front-runner backed by the State Republican Party, spent the weekend touring upstate New York in a campaign bus trying to shore up support in regions that typically sway his party’s primary.“Everybody’s hitting their breaking point right now,” Mr. Zeldin told a small crowd of about three dozen who gathered in an industrial park outside of Albany. He promised to rehire people who had been fired for refusing to be vaccinated, and to fire the Manhattan district attorney, who has become a punching bag for Republicans.Another candidate, Rob Astorino, spent Sunday shaking hands with potential voters on the boardwalk in Long Beach on Long Island.Mr. Wilson, a moderate who favors abortion rights and has positioned himself as a centrist outsider, has done relatively little in person campaigning. But he has blanketed the airwaves with more than $10 million worth of advertisements filleting Mr. Zeldin as a flip-flopping political insider.Near Albany, an entirely different message was being delivered by Andrew Giuliani, who spent Saturday night spinning laps around the Lebanon Valley Speedway in a Ram pickup emblazoned with his face. He gleefully tied himself to his former boss, Donald J. Trump: “You like that guy, right?”Though Mr. Giuliani, 36, is an outspoken critic of abortion and proponent of firearms, he spent much of his three hours at the speedway Saturday night reminding voters of his MAGA credentials.The cheers that rose from the crowd suggested he was among friends.Wearing an American flag wrap over a tank top, Wendy Dominski, 52, a retired nurse who drove five hours from Youngstown, N.Y., to volunteer for the event, said the other Republicans in the race are either RINOs — Republicans in Name Only — or “flat-out flip-flop liars.”She had little doubt who the former president supports, even if he hasn’t said so. “Giuliani stands for everything that Trump stands for, and that we stand for,” she said.Reporting was contributed by More

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      MAGA Voters Send a $50 Million G.O.P. Plan Off the Rails in Illinois

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      Republican leaders think a moderate nominee for governor could beat Gov. J.B. Pritzker. But the party’s base seems to prefer a far-right state senator — and he is getting help from Mr. Pritzker.LINCOLN, Ill. — Darren Bailey, the front-runner in the Republican primary for governor of Illinois, was finishing his stump speech last week at a senior center in this Central Illinois town when a voice called out: “Can we pray for you?”Mr. Bailey readily agreed. The speaker, a youth mentor from Lincoln named Kathy Schmidt, placed her right hand on his left shoulder while he closed his eyes and held out his hands, palms open.“More than anything,” she prayed, “I ask for that, in this election, you raise up the righteous and strike down the wicked.”The wicked, in this case, are the Chicago-based moderates aiming to maintain control over the Illinois Republican Party. And the righteous is Mr. Bailey, a far-right state senator who is unlike any nominee the party has put forward for governor in living memory.A 56-year-old farmer whose Southern Illinois home is closer to Nashville than to Chicago, he wears his hair in a crew cut, speaks with a thick drawl and does not sand down his conservative credentials, as so many past leading G.O.P. candidates have done to try to appeal to suburbanites in this overwhelmingly Democratic state. On Saturday, former President Donald J. Trump endorsed Mr. Bailey at a rally near Quincy, Ill.Mr. Bailey has sought to respond to grievances long felt across rural Central and Southern Illinois toward Chicago, which he once proposed removing from the state.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesMr. Bailey rose to prominence in Illinois politics by introducing legislation to kick Chicago out of the state. When the coronavirus pandemic began, he was removed from a state legislative session for refusing to wear a mask, and he sued Gov. J.B. Pritzker, a Democrat, over statewide virus mitigation efforts. Painted on the door of his campaign bus is the Bible verse Ephesians 6:10-19, which calls for followers to wear God’s armor in a battle against “evil rulers.”He is the favored candidate of the state’s anti-abortion groups, and on Friday he celebrated the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v. Wade as a “historic and welcomed moment.” He has said he opposes the practice, including in cases of rape and incest.Mr. Bailey has upended carefully laid $50 million plans by Illinois Republican leaders to nominate Mayor Richard C. Irvin of Aurora, a moderate suburbanite with an inspiring personal story who they believed could win back the governor’s mansion in Springfield in what is widely forecast to be a winning year for Republicans.Mr. Bailey has been aided by an unprecedented intervention from Mr. Pritzker and the Pritzker-funded Democratic Governors Association, which have spent nearly $35 million combined attacking Mr. Irvin while trying to lift Mr. Bailey. No candidate for any office is believed to have ever spent more to meddle in another party’s primary.The Illinois governor’s race is now on track to become the most expensive campaign for a nonpresidential office in American history.Public and private polling ahead of Tuesday’s primary shows Mr. Bailey with a lead of 15 percentage points over Mr. Irvin and four other candidates. His strength signals the broader shift in Republican politics across the country, away from urban power brokers and toward a rural base that demands fealty to a far-right agenda aligned with Mr. Trump.For Mr. Bailey, the proposal to excise Chicago, which he called “a hellhole” during a televised debate last month, encapsulates the grievances long felt across rural Central and Southern Illinois — places culturally far afield and long resentful of the politically dominant big city.An audience in Green Valley, Ill., listened to Mr. Bailey speak. Polling shows him leading the Republican primary by double digits.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York Times“The rest of the 90 percent of the land mass is not real happy about how 10 percent of the land mass is directing things,” Mr. Bailey said in an interview aboard his campaign bus outside a bar in Green Valley, a village of 700 people south of Peoria. “A large amount of people outside of that 10 percent don’t have a voice, and that’s a problem.”That pitch has resonated with the conservative voters flocking to Mr. Bailey, who seemed to compare Mr. Irvin to Satan during a Facebook Live monologue in February.“Everything that we pay and do supports Chicago,” said Pam Page, a security analyst at State Farm Insurance from McLean, Ill., who came to see Mr. Bailey in Lincoln. “Downstate just never seems to get any of the perks or any of the kickbacks.”The onslaught of Democratic television advertising attacking Mr. Irvin and trying to elevate Mr. Bailey has frustrated the Aurora mayor, whose campaign was conceived of and funded by the same team of Republicans who helped elect social moderates like Mark Kirk to the Senate in 2010 and Bruce Rauner as governor in 2014. Their recipe: In strong Republican years, find moderate candidates who can win over voters in Chicago’s suburbs — and spend a ton of money.Richard C. Irvin speaking to employees at a manufacturing plant in Wauconda, a suburb north of Chicago. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesMr. Irvin, 52, fit their bill. Born to a teenage single mother in Aurora, he is an Army veteran of the first Gulf War who served as a local prosecutor before becoming the first Black mayor of the city, the second most populous in Illinois.Kenneth Griffin, the Chicago billionaire hedge fund founder who is the chief benefactor for Illinois Republicans, gave $50 million to Mr. Irvin for the primary alone and pledged to spend more for him in the general election. Mr. Griffin, the state’s richest man, will not support any other Republican in the race against Mr. Pritzker, according to his spokesman, Zia Ahmed. Mr. Griffin announced last week that his hedge fund and trading firm would relocate to Miami.While Mr. Irvin, a longtime Republican who has nevertheless voted in a series of recent Democratic primaries in Illinois, expected an expensive dogfight in the general election, he is frustrated by the primary season intervention from Mr. Pritzker, a billionaire who is America’s richest elected official.“This has never happened in the history of our nation that a Democrat would spend this much money stopping one individual from becoming the nominee of the Republican Party,” Mr. Irvin said in an interview after touring a manufacturing plant in Wauconda, a well-to-do suburb north of Chicago. “There are six Republican primary opponents — six of them. But when you turn on the television, all you see is me.”Mr. Griffin said that “J.B. Pritzker is terrified of facing Richard Irvin in the general election.”He added, “He and his cronies at the D.G.A. have shamelessly spent tens of millions of dollars meddling in the Republican primary in an effort to fool Republican voters.”Mr. Pritzker said that ads emphasizing Mr. Bailey’s conservative credentials had the same message he plans to use in the general election. He said he was not afraid of running against Mr. Irvin or of the millions Mr. Griffin would spend on his campaign.“It’s a mess over there,” Mr. Pritzker said in an interview on Friday. “They’re all anti-choice. Literally, you can go down the list of things that I think really matter to people across the state. And, you know, they’re all terrible. So I’ll take any one of them and I’ll beat them.”Gov. J.B. Pritzker, the country’s richest elected official, has poured money into the primary, attacking Mr. Irvin while trying to help Mr. Bailey. Pat Nabong/Chicago Sun-Times, via Associated PressThe primary race alone has drawn $100 million in TV advertising. Mr. Pritzker has spent more money on TV ads than anyone else running for any office in the country this year. Mr. Irvin ranks second, according to AdImpact, a media tracking firm.Far behind them is Mr. Bailey, whose primary financial benefactor is Richard Uihlein, the billionaire megadonor of far-right Republican candidates, who has donated $9 million of the $11.6 million Mr. Bailey has raised and sent another $8 million to a political action committee that has attacked Mr. Irvin as insufficiently conservative.Presidential politics for both parties loom over the primary.Mr. Irvin won’t say whom he voted for in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections and, in the interview, declined to say if he would support Mr. Trump if he ran for president in 2024. He called President Biden “the legitimate president” and said former Vice President Mike Pence had performed his constitutional duty on Jan. 6, 2021.Mr. Bailey would not say if the 2020 election had been decided fairly or if Mr. Pence did the right thing.Mr. Pritzker’s motivation to help Mr. Bailey in the primary may be informed not only by his desire for re-election but also by what many see as potential aspirations to seek the White House himself. Last weekend he addressed a gathering of Democrats in New Hampshire — a stop only those with national ambitions make in the middle of their own re-election campaigns.Mr. Bailey, 56, is a farmer with roots in Southern Illinois. Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesAs the primary draws near, establishment Republicans across the state are fretting about the prospect of Mr. Bailey dragging down the entire G.O.P. ticket in November.Representative Darin LaHood predicted an “overwhelming” Bailey primary victory in his Central Illinois district, but warned that he would be toxic for general-election voters.“Bailey is not going to play in the suburbs,” said Mr. LaHood, who has not endorsed a primary candidate. “He’s got a Southern drawl, a Southern accent. I mean, he should be running in Missouri, not in suburban Chicago.”Former Gov. Jim Edgar, the only Illinois governor from outside the Chicago area since World War II, said Mr. Bailey’s rise showed that party leaders “don’t have the grasp or the control of their constituents like they did back in the ’80s and the ’90s.”Mr. Bailey’s supporters say the real fight is for the soul of the Republican Party. To them, winning the primary and seizing control of the state party is just as important, if not more so, than triumphing in the general election.Thomas DeVore, left, a candidate for Illinois attorney general who has “Freedom” and “Liberty” tattooed on his arms, with Mr. Bailey in Lincoln.Jamie Kelter Davis for The New York TimesRunning for attorney general on a slate with Mr. Bailey is Thomas DeVore, his lawyer in the pandemic lawsuits against Mr. Pritzker. On the campaign trail, he wears untucked golf shirts that reveal his forearm tattoos — “Freedom” on his right arm, “Liberty” on his left.“Whether or not Darren and I win the general election, if we can at least get control within our own party, I think long term we have an opportunity to be successful,” Mr. DeVore said at their stop in Green Valley.And David Smith, the executive director of the Illinois Family Institute, an anti-abortion organization whose political arm endorsed Mr. Bailey, said the G.O.P. race was about excising the party’s moderate elements.“This primary,” he said, “has got to purge the Republican Party of those who are self-serving snollygosters.”Catie Edmondson More

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      N.Y. Republican Quandary: How to Veer Right and Still Win in November

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      Most of the Republican candidates for governor are embracing conservative stances as the primary nears, but that may turn off moderate voters in November.POUGHKEEPSIE, N.Y. — For most of his early political career, Lee M. Zeldin was a classic Long Island moderate Republican: As an Army officer elected to the State Senate, he worked with Democrats to champion causes like tax cuts, veterans’ benefits and even beer, protecting breweries in his district and elsewhere.That centrism began to fade after Mr. Zeldin was elected to Congress in 2014 and was cast off completely after the election of President Donald J. Trump. Mr. Zeldin was one of the earlier House Republicans to embrace Mr. Trump, a fealty that culminated in his vote to overturn the results of the 2020 election in key swing states.Now, Mr. Zeldin may be forced to reconcile his past and present stances as he pursues a run for governor this year, a tricky balancing act that will require him to win a surprisingly fractious four-way Republican primary on Tuesday and then try to appeal to a far more moderate general electorate.Mr. Zeldin has largely stayed in the right lane, voicing allegiance to an array of conservative touchstones, including support for the Second Amendment, rejection of abortion and a devotion to Mr. Trump.Even so, he on some occasions has seemed mindful of the general election audience, a nuance that has emerged in subtle ways in debates, interviews and on the stump.Mr. Zeldin, for example, celebrated the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe v. Wade on Friday, calling it “a victory for life, for family, for the constitution, and for federalism” and adding that “New York clearly needs to do a much better job to promote, respect and defend life.” But last month, before the decision, he had also been keen to stress that “nothing changes” for states like New York, which have enshrined abortion rights.On the Second Amendment, Mr. Zeldin cheered the Supreme Court’s decision on Thursday to strike down a century-old law that placed strict limits on the carrying of handguns, calling it “a historic, proper and necessary victory.” He also says he would like to overturn a 2013 state law — the Safe Act — that tightened state guns laws.But after the recent massacre at a Buffalo supermarket, Mr. Zeldin walked back a call for the abolition of so-called red-flag laws, which prohibit gun ownership for those deemed a threat to themselves and others. He clarified that he simply felt such laws shouldn’t apply to “law-abiding New Yorkers.”Mr. Zeldin, right, with Kirk Imperati, the acting Dutchess County sheriff who is running for election.Richard Beaven for The New York TimesAnd even as Mr. Zeldin has attacked rivals for being “never-Trumpers” and Republicans in name only, he has stopped short of saying the 2020 election was stolen and didn’t exactly endorse a 2024 Trump campaign during the candidates’ first debate.“If President Trump wants to run,” Mr. Zeldin said, “he should run.”On Tuesday, too, when asked during the candidates’ final debate — hosted by Newsmax, the conservative cable network — if he was politically closer to Mr. Trump or former Vice President Mike Pence, Mr. Zeldin demurred, saying he was his “own man” — and drew a mixed reaction from a live audience in Rochester.Indeed, the challenge facing Mr. Zeldin, the putative front-runner endorsed by the state Republican Party, is one facing all four party candidates ahead of the primary on Tuesday: How to appeal to primary voters, hungry for red-meat issues like crime, immigration and social welfare, while not alienating more moderate swing voters who are dissatisfied with President Biden or Gov. Kathy Hochul, the incumbent Democrat favored to win her primary on Tuesday.Such a balancing act, political consultants from both parties say, is central to achieving one of the most daunting tasks in American politics: winning a statewide race in New York as a Republican.No Republican has done so since George E. Pataki won a third term as governor in 2002. And in the decades since, the task has become even more difficult as the state’s demographics have steadily drifted left while New York Republicans — once known for centrists like former governor Nelson A. Rockefeller — have banked hard to the right.“Right now, you have a race to the absolute bottom,” said Jefrey Pollock, the veteran pollster who is working with Ms. Hochul, referring to what he described as the Republicans’ pandering to right-wing voters. “So what you get is Republican candidates who are going to be incredibly out of step with general election voters on things that are going to be in the news, like guns and abortion and Donald Trump.”Mr. Zeldin’s victory in the primary is far from assured, with a spirited challenge coming from three rivals: Rob Astorino, the former Westchester County executive; Harry Wilson, a corporate turnaround specialist; and Andrew Giuliani, the son of the former New York City mayor Rudolph W. Giuliani.Some voter surveys have shown Mr. Giuliani running a close second, or even surpassing, Mr. Zeldin in the closing weeks of the campaign.Even if Mr. Zeldin is the winner on Tuesday, it will be an uphill climb to the governor’s mansion in Albany. In pure statistical terms, Republicans are a third party in New York, trailing Democrats by more than three million registered members, and also outnumbered by nonaffiliated voters. And the calculus for Republicans winning in a statewide election generally means winning at least 30 percent of the vote in New York City, which is heavily Democratic. Still, with voters across the country rejecting Democratic leadership, and concern about crime and cost of living spiking in New York, Republicans believe this year could be an exception to that terrible track record. Even Democrats acknowledge that it could be a good year for Republicans, who lost their last foothold of power in Albany — control of the State Senate — in the 2018 elections. Mr. Zeldin insists that his proposed policies will remain constant even after the primary, emphasizing that he believes New Yorkers are most focused on kitchen-table issues like the economy, taxes and public safety.“These are issues that resonate with Republicans, these are issues that also resonate with independents, and they’re resonating with Democrats as well,” he said in an interview, adding that while “the conversation may be different in a general election,” on issues like guns, “My positions won’t change. My positions don’t change.”Like other Republicans, he’s also tried to emphasize less polarizing policies — mocking “the geniuses in Albany” and laying out ideas like stopping out-migration from the state, as well as reducing crime and government mandates.“We rule the government,” he said. “They don’t rule us.”From left to right, Harry Wilson, Rob Astorino, Lee Zeldin and Andrew Giuliani, at a recent debate of Republican candidates for governor.Pool photo by Brittainy NewmanLikewise, Mr. Zeldin’s Republican primary opponents seem aware of the calculations Republicans must make with voters.Mr. Wilson, a wealthy Greek American from the well-to-do enclave of Scarsdale, N.Y., is probably the campaign’s closest approximation of a moderate, having voiced support for abortion rights and advised the Treasury Department under President Barack Obama. He says he refused to vote for Mr. Trump in 2020 and wrote in Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador under Mr. Trump.Mr. Wilson, who has plowed more than $10 million of his own money into his campaign, has also shunned litmus tests on social issues, saying he’s running on an economic platform. He prefers to speak in wonky bullet points about overhauling state government and producing more housing units.“What I’m trying to do is lay out very clearly how different I am than any other candidate,” said Mr. Wilson said in a recent interview. “You used the term moderate. I think about it as someone who is not a politician — an outsider who has spent his entire career fixing failed organizations. And we need to hire a governor who has the capability to fix the most failed state government in the country.”Mr. Astorino, the former Westchester County executive, knows about the challenges of winning statewide in New York; he was the party’s unsuccessful nominee for governor in 2014. Still, he’s touted something Republicans have often pushed aside in primary contests in recent years: electability. He argues that Mr. Zeldin’s trail of votes in Albany and Washington has made him toxic to many New Yorkers.“I’m the most electable Republican in this race,” he said, noting his record winning Democratic crossover votes in “overwhelmingly blue Westchester County.”In an interview, Mr. Astorino played down the impact of Mr. Trump’s shadow over the race, insisting that voters would focus more on real-life concerns than on whom Mr. Trump might favor.“There’s the quality of life, the chaos, the dangerousness, the radicalism that’s taken hold because of the progressives right now,” he said. “All of that is subplot in this, but the basics are the economy, taxes, jobs and crime.”In the first debate, Mr. Astorino also went further than any other candidate in tying Mr. Trump to the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol, calling it “a horrible day in our nation’s history,” and saying that Mr. Trump “bears some responsibility.”Mr. Giuliani seems to be the most willing to embrace far-right talking points, seemingly hoping to energize the base by leaning on his father and emphasizing divisive culture-war topics. He railed against “the leftist media,” consideration for transgender people and critical race theory.Mr. Giuliani, who worked in the Trump administration for four years, has also actively sought Mr. Trump’s backing and unequivocally voiced his belief in the baseless conspiracy theory that Mr. Trump had won the 2020 election, the outcome of which he called “one of the greatest crimes in American history.”But in terms of political accomplishments and experience, Mr. Zeldin, who has represented the eastern part of Long Island since 2015, seems to have the upper hand. Trained as a lawyer, Mr. Zeldin passed the bar at the age of 23 and served in the U.S. Army as an intelligence officer and prosecutor, as well as being deployed to Iraq with the 82d Airborne in 2006. He still serves in the Army Reserve; married with two twin daughters, Mr. Zeldin likes to joke that he is “the fourth highest- ranking person” in his family.On a recent Thursday night, in front of a well-dressed coterie of Republican faithful at an elegant event space in Poughkeepsie, N.Y., Mr. Zeldin noted all the reasons he had for not running for governor, including the fact that he could have easily won another term and perhaps had a leadership position in a potential Republican majority in the House.But he said he was called to run to “save our state,” arguing — in a catch phrase from his campaign — that “losing is not an option.”“I’m not in this race to win a primary,” Mr. Zeldin said, stirring the audience to its feet. “I’m in this race to win in November.” More

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      Hochul Has Raised $34 Million So Far. Her Goal May Be Double That.

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      Gov. Kathy Hochul’s fund-raising pace could make her run for a full term the most expensive campaign ever for governor of New York.It was the night after the first debate among the major Democrats running to be New York’s governor, and the favored incumbent, Gov. Kathy Hochul, was in a fund-raising mood.As Neil Diamond’s “Sweet Caroline” played on the sound system at Hush HK, a gay bar in the Hell’s Kitchen neighborhood of Manhattan, Ms. Hochul worked the crowd of well-connected guests who had paid $500 to $25,000 apiece to attend the June 8 event.As voters prepare for the Democratic primary on Tuesday, Ms. Hochul appears to be a prohibitive favorite over her rivals, Representative Thomas R. Suozzi of Long Island and Jumaane D. Williams, New York City’s public advocate.That has not stopped her from raising campaign cash at a furious pace: Ms. Hochul, who had already collected roughly $34 million in political donations as of Thursday, has set a target of raising a total of $50 million to $70 million by Election Day, according to three Democrats familiar with her plans.“The stakes of this election could not be higher and Governor Hochul is proud of the widespread support for her campaign,” Jen Goodman, a spokeswoman for Ms. Hochul’s campaign, said in a statement. “The governor will continue to build momentum from now until November, connecting with voters across the state and working tirelessly to deliver results for all New Yorkers.”Ms. Hochul and her team have exhaustively pursued contributions from all corners of the donor class: real estate and health care, cryptocurrency and gambling.And she shows no signs of letting up: On Monday, the day before the primary, Ms. Hochul plans a rooftop fund-raiser on Manhattan’s Far West Side. Admission costs a minimum of $100. Hosts are asked to give or raise $25,000.Should Ms. Hochul achieve her desired fund-raising goal, she may be in the running for most expensive campaign for governor in New York history — rivaling only the billionaire Tom Golisano’s failed bid to unseat Gov. George E. Pataki in 2002, an effort with an estimated cost of $54 million to $74 million. She will also put herself in league with similarly expensive campaigns for governor in Virginia and California.Ms. Hochul’s fund-raising effort is somewhat rooted in Albany tradition, with governors often gathering money from donors with business before the state even while the State Legislature is in session.“This is essentially an open seat, so I can understand the logic for why she wants to raise as much as she does to ward off significant competition,” said Blair Horner, the executive director of the New York Public Interest Research Group, a government watchdog. “On the other hand, where does the money come from?”A Guide to New York’s 2022 Primary ElectionsAs prominent Democratic officials seek to defend their records, Republicans see opportunities to make inroads in general election races.Governor’s Race: Kathy Hochul, the incumbent, is expected to handily win against Jumaane Williams and Tom Suozzi in the Democratic primary on June 28. But some allies worry her low-key approach comes at a cost.Lieutenant Governor’s Race: Ms. Hochul’s handpicked candidate is facing a sharp challenge from the Democratic Party’s left wing.Maloney vs. Nadler: New congressional lines have put the two stalwart Manhattan Democrats — including New York City’s last remaining Jewish congressman — on a collision course in the Aug. 23 primary.15 Democrats, 1 Seat: A newly redrawn House district in New York City may be one of the largest and most freewheeling primaries in the nation.Offensive Remarks: Carl P. Paladino, a Republican running for a House seat in Western New York, recently drew backlash for praising Adolf Hitler in an interview dating back to 2021.Ms. Hochul became the state’s first female governor last August after Andrew M. Cuomo resigned amid allegations of sexual harassment that the state’s attorney general deemed credible.Many of her donations have come from the gambling industry, which is eagerly awaiting the issuance of up to three new licenses for casinos in and around New York City.In recent months. Ms. Hochul has raised more than $200,000 from donors with direct interests in gambling. More than $100,000 of that sum came from contributors associated with Hard Rock, a company that wants to open a casino in New York City, records show.Donors tied to Hard Rock gave Ms. Hochul $80,000 from June 18 to June 23, building on the nearly $40,000 they have given her since she became governor. Jim Allen, Hard Rock International’s chairman, was the largest single donor associated with the company. He gave Ms. Hochul $25,000 on June 20 after contributing almost $13,000 to her campaign in January, the reports show.In addition, Edward Tracy, the chief executive of Hard Rock Japan LLC and a former chief executive at the Trump Organization, gave Ms. Hochul $25,000 on Thursday.A Hard Rock representative declined to comment on the contributions and referred questions to Ms. Hochul’s campaign.Ms. Hochul smashed previous fund-raising records when she announced a $21.6 million haul at the beginning of the year, by far the largest amount any New York candidate had reported for a single filing period.She has continued pulling in money at a dizzying clip, in some cases raising hundreds of thousands of dollars in a single day. She reported taking in $340,000 on Tuesday and another $200,000 on Wednesday, campaign finance records show. That is more than Mr. Suozzi raised in the previous three-week reporting period, which ended in mid-June.Ms. Hochul’s campaign team believes she needs a large campaign war chest to help ensure victory in an election cycle that is widely expected to favor Republicans. While she has been largely absent from the campaign trail, she has been a far more frenetic presence on the fund-raising circuit.On Wednesday, the chief executive of CLEAR — whose biometric technology is used to screen passengers at New York airports — hosted a fund-raiser for Ms. Hochul at Zero Bond, a nightclub often frequented by Mayor Eric Adams. Tickets cost $5,000 to $25,000, according to one invitee.In the most recent filings, which trickle in daily and include contributions since June 14, Ms. Hochul had already exceeded $1 million by Friday, with an average donation of about $10,000 and two new donors giving her the maximum $69,700. Since taking office, at least 10 percent of her cash has come from donors giving the maximum.Real estate interests, still smarting from their loss of a lucrative tax break that lapsed this year, continue to pour money into Ms. Hochul’s campaign. Two members of the Cayre real estate family, which controls the Midtown Equities firm, donated the maximum this week, bringing the family’s total to more than $400,000 since November.The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Several real estate titans have found a way to keep on giving even after hitting their limit with Ms. Hochul’s campaign: contribute to her running mate, Lt. Gov. Antonio Delgado, instead. In the last few days alone, Mr. Delgado has picked up several five-figure checks from real estate industry contributors who had already maxed out to Ms. Hochul, pushing his total from all donors since June 16 to almost $600,000.Mr. Delgado succeeded Brian Benjamin, who resigned after prosecutors indicted him on federal bribery and fraud charges. The night before the indictment was announced, Ms. Hochul was at a fund-raiser in Midtown Manhattan that featured a performance of Otis Redding’s “(Sittin’ On) The Dock of the Bay” by a former governor, David Paterson.“The lyrics for ‘Dock of the Bay’ are quite existential,” Mr. Paterson said in an interview this week before reciting them to a reporter. More