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      How Schools Are Shaping the Virginia Governor's Race

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      Virginia Republicans in a tight governor’s race have been staging “Parents Matter” rallies and tapping into conservative anger over mandates and critical race theory.WINCHESTER, Va. — As a lifelong Republican in her home state of Virginia, Tammy Yoder faithfully casts her ballot for those who want to lower taxes, oppose abortion and back other conservative causes.But the issue that transformed Ms. Yoder, a stay-at-home mother, from a reliable voter to the kind of person who brings three young children to an evening campaign rally wasn’t her Christian values or her pocketbook.It was something even more personal, she said: What her children learn in school. “The past year has revealed a ton to me,” said Ms. Yoder, 41, as she waited in this Northern Virginia exurb for a speech by Glenn Youngkin, the Republican candidate for governor. “The more I’ve listened and paid attention, the more that I see what’s happening in schools and on college campuses. And the stuff I see, I don’t want corrupting my children.”From fights over evolution to desegregation to prayer, education battles have been a staple of the country’s divisive cultural issues for decades. But not quite like this. After months of closed classrooms and lost learning time, Republicans in Virginia are making the schools the focus of their final push to capture the governor’s office, hoping to rally conservatives around both their frustrations over mask mandates and mandatory vaccinations and their fears of what their children are being taught.Vocal groups of parents, some led by Republican activists, are organizing against school curriculums, opposing public-health measures and calling for recalls of school board members. And Mr. Youngkin, a former private equity executive, has capitalized, seizing on conservatives’ concerns about instruction on race and the rights of transgender children to argue that Democrats want to come between parents and their children’s education.Mr. Youngkin’s attacks have forced Terry McAuliffe, the Democratic former governor trying to win back his old job, onto the defensive, and have thrust the ordinarily local issues surrounding schools into the middle of a rancorous nationwide shouting match.The Virginia race offers an early electoral test of that conservative energy. A victory by Mr. Youngkin would mark the first statewide win for Republicans in a dozen years and likely trigger a political panic within the Democratic Party about its prospects in next year’s midterm elections. Some Republican officials and strategists liken the surge of activism to the Tea Party, the anti-government movement that helped them win control of the House in 2010 and unleashed a revival of outrage politics that would define their party for the next decade.At a campaign rally in Winchester, Mr. Youngkin made little mention of Mr. Trump, vaccines or the coronavirus.Jason Andrew for The New York Times“There’s just so much focus on the schools, and it’s visceral,” said John Whitbeck, a former chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia from Loudoun County, where acrimonious school board meetings have led to arrests, death threats and constant airtime on conservative media. “It’s not like, ‘Oh, I’m against the debt ceiling.’ This is like, ‘You’re destroying our children’s education.’ And, look, angry people vote.”Polling in recent weeks has shown a tight race, with Democrats less enthusiastic than Republicans about voting. Mr. McAuliffe, who was barred from seeking re-election in 2017 by Virginia law, is faring worse in the fast-growing, voter-rich Northern Virginia suburbs than Gov. Ralph Northam, a Democrat, did when he won four years ago, according to some surveys.Mr. Youngkin’s focus on schools may not resonate as strongly with the broader electorate.Measures such as mask and vaccine mandates are cutting differently in the governor’s race in more liberal New Jersey and are overwhelmingly popular among Virginia’s independents and Democrats. Critical race theory — an advanced academic concept generally not introduced until college — is not part of classroom teaching in Virginia and many voters say they do not know enough about it to have an opinion. And turning schools into a cultural war zone by railing against equity initiatives, books with sexual content and public health measures avoids tackling issues like budget cuts and the other thornier problems facing American education.But in an off-year election, when both sides anticipate a sharp falloff in voting, victory may hinge on which candidate can best motivate their base. Mr. Youngkin and his strategists believe that in the fights roiling schools they have discovered the rare issue that can galvanize their voters, even in places that are shifting the state to the left.Frustration with education is an issue that unites Republicans, energizing moderates eager to ensure their children remain in school as well as conservatives who see a liberal plot to indoctrinate their children with the belief that white people are inherently racist.Mr. Youngkin and his strategists believe that in the fights roiling schools they have discovered an issue that can galvanize their voters.Jason Andrew for The New York Times“The former governor is saying, ‘Hey I’ll decide how to teach your kids, not you’ — that’s really the issue driving this,” said John Fredericks, who led Donald Trump’s Virginia campaign last year. “Glenn Youngkin is the candidate that’s been able to straddle both sides of the party. And so far he’s given us just enough where we can enthusiastically vote for the guy.”Republicans have centered much of their closing argument around a statement by Mr. McAuliffe in last month’s debate. The comment came after Mr. Youngkin attacked Mr. McAuliffe over his 2017 veto of a bill permitting parents to opt out of allowing their children to study material deemed sexually explicit. The dispute was prompted by a mother who objected to her son, a high school senior, reading literary classics including Toni Morrison’s “Beloved.”Mr. McAuliffe shot back that he did not believe “parents should be telling schools what they should teach.” In the weeks since, he’s stood by those remarks, saying that the state Board of Education and local school boards should determine what is taught in the classroom.But Mr. Youngkin and Republicans, stripping the quotation from its context, have turned the footage into the core of their argument that Mr. McAuliffe would side with government over parents. Video of the remark was featured in a flurry of digital ads and a statewide television commercial accusing Mr. McAuliffe of going “on the attack against parents.” Mr. Youngkin’s team began scheduling “Parents Matter” rallies in exurban counties, as they actively courted parent activist groups.And Mr. Youngkin has also voiced support for Byron Tanner Cross, a physical education teacher in Loudoun County. Mr. Cross was suspended after announcing at a school board meeting that he would not address transgender students by their preferred pronouns because of his Christian faith.At a campaign rally last week in Winchester, a small town in the Shenandoah Valley in one of the fast-growing exurb counties around Washington, Mr. Youngkin made little mention of Mr. Trump, vaccines or the coronavirus. Instead, he repeatedly invoked issues around schools as top priorities. He drew some of the loudest applause from the overwhelmingly white audience when he promised to ban critical race theory on his first day in office and vowed that schools would never be closed again.A victory by Mr. Youngkin would mark the first statewide win for Republicans in a dozen years.Jason Andrew for The New York Times“This is what big government means for Terry McAuliffe. He not only wants to stand between you and your children. He wants to make government a tool to silence us,” Mr. Youngkin told the crowd of nearly 200 people at a farm stand. “This is no longer a campaign. This is a movement. It’s a movement led by parents.”Mr. McAuliffe has dismissed the outrage surrounding critical race theory as “racist” and “a dog whistle.” He supports mask and vaccine mandates for students, teachers and school staff. (Mr. Youngkin says he encourages Virginians to get vaccinated against the coronavirus but does not support mandates.)But there are signs that Democrats sense danger. Mr. McAuliffe’s campaign has returned to highlighting his education proposals to undercut any argument that Mr. Youngkin could be stronger on the issue, promising to invest $2 billion in education, raise teacher pay, expand pre-K programs and invest in broadband access for students. On Friday, Mr. McAuliffe released an ad saying that Mr. Youngkin would cut billions of dollars in education funding and bring “Donald Trump and Betsy DeVos’s education policies to Virginia.”The parent organizations in Virginia say they are nonpartisan and more focused on school board elections than national politics. But many are led by Republican activists, raise funds from Republican Party donors and are helped by conservative think tanks such as the Heritage Foundation, which has held briefings to discuss model legislation to block critical race theory. Last month, the Republican National Committee ran ads attacking “fascist mask mandates” and highlighting video clips of angry parents yelling at school board members.Erin Holl, a Republican voter from Frederick County in the northern corner of the state, used to think of herself as conservative but not necessarily political. That was before the coronavirus. Months of online learning with her young daughters and the closure of her dog sitting business changed how much attention she paid the governor’s race.“I gave birth to her,” said Ms. Holl, gesturing to her daughter. “I have a right to say how she is raised. I have a right to say how she is vaccinated. This has changed how I felt about politics.” More

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      N.Y. Governor Poll Shows Hochul Leading James and Williams

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      A Marist College poll found that voters favored Gov. Kathy Hochul over potential primary rivals, including the state attorney general, Letitia James.When Kathy Hochul unexpectedly became governor of New York two months ago, she was immediately faced with two challenges: To learn to lead a state traversing a pandemic and simultaneously build a statewide campaign operation to run for a full term next year.Ms. Hochul immediately began courting donors and hiring campaign staff, as she faced the prospects of potentially running against Letitia James, the state attorney general, whose office led the sexual harassment investigation that ultimately led to the demise of former Gov. Andrew M. Cuomo, and to Ms. Hochul’s ascension.Ms. Hochul’s efforts appear to be paying off: A Marist College poll released on Tuesday found that Ms. Hochul would beat Ms. James and Jumaane Williams, the New York City public advocate, if next year’s Democratic primary for governor were held today.The poll, the first significant survey to gauge New Yorkers on the 2022 Democratic race for governor, also found that Ms. Hochul would win the primary if Mr. Cuomo, the former three-term governor who resigned in disgrace in August, decided to run.In a hypothetical three-way primary, 44 percent of New York Democrats said they would vote for Ms. Hochul, 28 percent for Ms. James and 15 percent for Mr. Williams, while 13 percent said they were unsure.In a four-way race that included Mr. Cuomo, 36 percent of Democratic voters said they favored Ms. Hochul, while 24 percent said they would vote for Ms. James, 19 percent for Mr. Cuomo and 9 percent for Mr. Williams; 12 percent said they were unsure.The poll did not include other potential Democratic candidates who are thought to be considering a run for governor, including Mayor Bill de Blasio of New York City and Representative Thomas Suozzi of Long Island.Ms. Hochul, who was elevated from lieutenant governor after Mr. Cuomo stepped down following allegations of sexual harassment, is so far the only Democrat to formally declare her candidacy. More

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      N.J. Governor Election Seen as Test of Coronavirus Mandates

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      The New Jersey governor election is one of the first statewide contests to measure how voters feel about strict coronavirus mandates.Six weeks after announcing that grade-school students in New Jersey would again need to wear masks in class, Gov. Philip D. Murphy, a Democrat, issued a new executive order, his 264th: Children 2 and older in day care centers would also have to wear face coverings.The howls of opposition were quick and fierce, and it became an immediate talking point for Jack Ciattarelli, a Republican challenging Mr. Murphy’s bid for re-election.“This is unconstitutional, un-American and has no scientific backing,” a fund-raising email from Mr. Ciattarelli and his running mate, Diane Allen, said of the practice, which is recommended by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.New Jersey’s contest, which along with Virginia’s is one of just two governor’s races in the country before next year’s midterm elections, is seen by some as an early barometer of voter sentiment.“The takeaway will be: Are we competitive or not?” said Leonard Lance, a New Jersey Republican and former congressman who lost his seat in the 2018 midterms as Democrats angered by President Donald J. Trump and his policies flipped control of the House.Mr. Murphy has tried to lash Mr. Ciattarelli to Mr. Trump, who lost to President Biden in New Jersey by 16 points — offering a likely preview of the kinds of attacks to come during the midterms next year.But New Jersey’s election on Nov. 2 also provides one of the first statewide tests of how voters feel about strict coronavirus-related mandates as the health crisis stretches into its 20th month and pandemic fatigue mounts.Voters surveyed in polls continued to give Mr. Murphy some of his highest marks for the way he has responded to the pandemic, and he has said he believed it was one of the most defining issues separating him and Mr. Ciattarelli. Last week, Mr. Murphy refused to rule out a Covid-19 vaccine mandate for students, a step taken by California, where, as early as next fall, inoculation against the virus will be required to attend school.Saily Avelenda, executive director of New Jersey’s Democratic State Committee, said she believed that mask wearing and vaccine mandates would be the most important factors driving voters to the polls.“It’s the issue that’s most affecting everybody, and it’s affecting everybody in real time,” Ms. Avelenda said. “People are genuinely terrified of turning New Jersey backward to a Florida or a Texas in Covid response.”Vice President Kamala Harris, center, toured a Covid-19 vaccination site at Essex County College in Newark with Mr. Murphy, right, on Friday.Mandel Ngan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesStill, along the Jersey Shore in Ocean County, where Mr. Trump won by nearly 30 points, it remains easy to find anti-mask yard signs that read “Free the Smiles.” And across the state some local board of education meetings have grown tense with parents opposed to mask wearing in schools clashing with officials who are required to enforce the state mandate.In northern New Jersey, a Republican state senator, Holly Schepisi, said her office was fielding calls from parents “on both sides of the aisle” expressing concern about the new mask requirement for 2-year-olds, who have gone maskless in day care throughout the pandemic.The executive order, which was issued last month, is impractical, she said.“It’s hard enough to keep their shoe or their diaper on,” said Ms. Schepisi, who is a member of the Senate’s health committee and represents part of Bergen and Passaic Counties. “In addition to the question of ‘Why now?’ It was, ‘Where is this coming from?’”Registered Democrats in New Jersey outnumber Republicans by nearly 1.1 million voters, giving Mr. Murphy a built-in advantage that several polls have shown Mr. Ciattarelli is struggling to overcome.A report released Friday by the Covid States Project, a research and tracking effort by several universities, found that governors of states with prohibitions on vaccine mandates, including Arkansas, Arizona and Idaho, got the lowest approval ratings.Nationwide, support for governors’ pandemic policies has dipped since June, but Mr. Murphy’s initiatives remained popular with 60 percent of respondents, said David Lazer, a professor of political science at Northeastern University and one of the project researchers.“In June, it was ‘Mission accomplished,’ and in September, it was, ‘We’re back to this nightmare,’ ” Professor Lazer said. “The good news for incumbents right now is the virus seems to be retreating.”In August, Mr. Ciattarelli appeared at a Board of Education meeting in Toms River to oppose the in-school mask mandate, claiming that masks inhibit learning and that parents — not the governor — should be able to choose.Ms. Schepisi, who was hospitalized with Covid-19 before vaccines were readily available, encourages eligible residents to be inoculated against the virus and supports indoor masking of students 5 and older. But she said the lack of legislative involvement in the rule-making process had struck a nerve. Polls, she said, were missing “the undercurrent of people who really think that government is now overreaching.”Lawrence E. Bathgate II, a New Jersey Republican fund-raiser who has served as finance chairman for the Republican National Committee, agreed.“It’s taking away the choices that people have,” Mr. Bathgate said. “Is that what you want for another four years?”At the start of summer, Mr. Murphy, 64, became one of the last governors in the country to eliminate the state’s indoor mask mandate. Two months later, as cases tied to the highly contagious Delta variant spiked, he “strongly recommended” that people again wear masks indoors.He has required employees of schools, day care centers and health care facilities to be fully vaccinated or submit to regular testing — an opt-out important to the state’s powerful teachers union, one of Mr. Murphy’s strongest allies..css-1kpebx{margin:0 auto;font-family:nyt-franklin,helvetica,arial,sans-serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.125rem;line-height:1.3125rem;color:#121212;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-family:nyt-cheltenham,georgia,’times new roman’,times,serif;font-weight:700;font-size:1.375rem;line-height:1.625rem;}@media (min-width:740px){#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1kpebx{font-size:1.6875rem;line-height:1.875rem;}}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1kpebx{font-size:1.25rem;line-height:1.4375rem;}}.css-1gtxqqv{margin-bottom:0;}.css-k59gj9{display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-flex-direction:column;-ms-flex-direction:column;flex-direction:column;width:100%;}.css-1e2usoh{font-family:inherit;display:-webkit-box;display:-webkit-flex;display:-ms-flexbox;display:flex;-webkit-box-pack:justify;-webkit-justify-content:space-between;-ms-flex-pack:justify;justify-content:space-between;border-top:1px solid #ccc;padding:10px 0px 10px 0px;background-color:#fff;}.css-1jz6h6z{font-family:inherit;font-weight:bold;font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5rem;text-align:left;}.css-1t412wb{box-sizing:border-box;margin:8px 15px 0px 15px;cursor:pointer;}.css-hhzar2{-webkit-transition:-webkit-transform ease 0.5s;-webkit-transition:transform ease 0.5s;transition:transform ease 0.5s;}.css-t54hv4{-webkit-transform:rotate(180deg);-ms-transform:rotate(180deg);transform:rotate(180deg);}.css-1r2j9qz{-webkit-transform:rotate(0deg);-ms-transform:rotate(0deg);transform:rotate(0deg);}.css-e1ipqs{font-size:1rem;line-height:1.5rem;padding:0px 30px 0px 0px;}.css-e1ipqs a{color:#326891;-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;}.css-e1ipqs a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}.css-1o76pdf{visibility:show;height:100%;padding-bottom:20px;}.css-1sw9s96{visibility:hidden;height:0px;}.css-1in8jot{background-color:white;border:1px solid #e2e2e2;width:calc(100% – 40px);max-width:600px;margin:1.5rem auto 1.9rem;padding:15px;box-sizing:border-box;font-family:’nyt-franklin’,arial,helvetica,sans-serif;text-align:left;}@media (min-width:740px){.css-1in8jot{padding:20px;width:100%;}}.css-1in8jot:focus{outline:1px solid #e2e2e2;}#NYT_BELOW_MAIN_CONTENT_REGION .css-1in8jot{border:none;padding:10px 0 0;border-top:2px solid #121212;}What to Know About Covid-19 Booster ShotsThe F.D.A. authorized booster shots for a select group of people who received their second doses of the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine at least six months ago. That group includes: Pfizer recipients who are 65 or older or who live in long-term care facilities; adults who are at high risk of severe Covid-19 because of an underlying medical condition; health care workers and others whose jobs put them at risk. People with weakened immune systems are eligible for a third dose of either Pfizer or Moderna four weeks after the second shot.Regulators have not authorized booster shots for recipients of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines yet, but an F.D.A. panel is scheduled to meet to weigh booster shots for adult recipients of the Moderna and Johnson & Johnson vaccines.The C.D.C. has said the conditions that qualify a person for a booster shot include: hypertension and heart disease; diabetes or obesity; cancer or blood disorders; weakened immune system; chronic lung, kidney or liver disease; dementia and certain disabilities. Pregnant women and current and former smokers are also eligible.The F.D.A. authorized boosters for workers whose jobs put them at high risk of exposure to potentially infectious people. The C.D.C. says that group includes: emergency medical workers; education workers; food and agriculture workers; manufacturing workers; corrections workers; U.S. Postal Service workers; public transit workers; grocery store workers.It is not recommended. For now, Pfizer vaccine recipients are advised to get a Pfizer booster shot, and Moderna and Johnson & Johnson recipients should wait until booster doses from those manufacturers are approved.Yes. The C.D.C. says the Covid vaccine may be administered without regard to the timing of other vaccines, and many pharmacy sites are allowing people to schedule a flu shot at the same time as a booster dose.Other locales have far stricter rules. In New York City, teachers and health care workers cannot opt out of the vaccine, and patrons of gyms and restaurants must offer proof of inoculation to enter.After adding a tax on income over $1 million and borrowing $3.67 billion in anticipation of pandemic-related budget shortfalls that proved less dire than predicted, Mr. Murphy has pledged not to raise taxes during a second term. He has also said that he would continue to focus on addressing the climate crisis.Since beating two candidates loyal to Mr. Trump to win the Republican primary, Mr. Ciattarelli, a former state assemblyman who had been known for moderate views, has hammered away at issues that galvanize the former president’s conservative base.Striking a tough-on-crime theme, he has also emphasized the state’s and the nation’s uptick in shootings and criticized the legalization of marijuana.Mr. Ciattarelli has sounded themes popular with conservative Republicans.Seth Wenig/Associated PressMr. Ciattarelli, 59, has also reminded voters of the high death rate from the virus in New Jersey’s long-term care facilities and a sexual assault scandal involving a woman who volunteered for Mr. Murphy’s first campaign and reported being raped by a colleague.He once called Mr. Trump a charlatan and has said that Mr. Biden won the election legitimately. But Mr. Ciattarelli has been repeatedly forced to defend his decision to appear at a “Stop the Steal” rally after the November election, including during the first debate last month.The second and final debate is scheduled for Tuesday night.“They’re trying to appeal to Trump’s base,” said former Gov. Christie Todd Whitman, a Republican who on Monday urged her party to support Democrats in the midterm elections as a bulwark against “pro-Trump extremists.”Patrick Murray, director of the Monmouth University Polling Institute, said “underlying partisan tribalism” had chipped away at candidates’ ability to woo voters from the opposing party.Voter turnout is seen as a vital part of Mr. Ciattarelli’s calculus. A Monmouth poll conducted in September found that Mr. Ciattarelli trailed Mr. Murphy by 13 percentage points.Mr. Ciattarelli, Mr. Murray said, “needs his base to be energized and the other side to be complacent or disenchanted.”“You’re not going to get them to vote for you,” he said of Mr. Murphy’s supporters. “What you’re trying to do is get them to stay home.”Both camps are hoping to drive up the early vote.For the first time, New Jersey is offering nine days of early in-person machine voting at polling sites, starting on Oct. 23, joining a majority of states that already offer the option. More

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      Is Texas Ready for Matthew McConaughey?

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      When the actor Matthew McConaughey dropped his rom-com act to pursue hard-hitting dramas, Hollywood called it a “McConaissance.” Now we may be on the cusp of the next one, as he mulls over a run for governor of Texas. McConaughey is the first to admit he’s not a conventional pick for Texans. “I’m not a man who comes at politics from a political background,” he says. “I’m a statesman-philosopher, folk-singing poet.” Even so, he has some thoughts about the current political climate, observing, “It’s necessary to be aggressively centric, at least, to possibly salvage democracy in America right now.”[You can listen to this episode of “Sway” on Apple, Spotify, Google or wherever you get your podcasts.]In this conversation, Kara Swisher asks McConaughey to unpack his thoughts on key issues like mask mandates, abortion and voting rights, and what he actually means when he says he’s “measuring” a run for governor. They also discuss his recent memoir, “Greenlights,” as he doles out some of his life philosophies and cackles in good humor at the critical reviews that Kara insists on reading him.This episode contains strong language.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)Vida Alves McConaugheyThoughts? Email us at sway@nytimes.com.“Sway” is produced by Nayeema Raza, Blakeney Schick, Matt Kwong, Daphne Chen and Caitlin O’Keefe, and edited by Nayeema Raza; fact-checking by Kate Sinclair and Kristin Lin; music and sound design by Isaac Jones; mixing by Carole Sabouraud and Sonia Herrero; audience strategy by Shannon Busta. Special thanks to Kristin Lin and Mahima Chablani. More

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      Can You Imagine Bill de Blasio as Governor? He Can.

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      A run for higher office by New York City’s mayor might be viewed skeptically across the state, but he says he wants to remain in public life.Mayor Bill de Blasio has begun to tell people privately that he plans to run for governor of New York next year, according to three people with direct knowledge of his conversations with fellow Democrats and donors.Mr. de Blasio, who has been a polarizing figure during his two terms in office, has also sounded out trusted former aides about their interest in working on a potential campaign, according to two people who are familiar with those contacts, and has made other overtures to labor leaders about a possible bid. His longtime pollster conducted a private survey to assess Mr. de Blasio’s appeal beyond New York City. And publicly, too, he has increasingly made it clear that he wants to remain in public life.“There’s a number of things I want to keep working on in this city, in this state,” Mr. de Blasio said last week, noting his interest in public health, early childhood education and combating income inequality. “That is going to be what I focus on when this mission is over. So, I want to serve. I’m going to figure out the right way to serve and the right time to serve.”Mr. de Blasio’s move toward a possible run for governor comes even as the city he now leads faces extraordinary challenges and an uncertain future, and should he enter what may be a crowded and well-financed field, he would face significant hurdles.His approval ratings in New York City have been low, according to the sparse polling that is publicly available, and he faces deep skepticism elsewhere in the state — an environment similar to the one he confronted, unsuccessfully, in his 2020 presidential bid. A run for governor would be contrary to the better judgment of even some people he considers allies, as well as that of many party leaders across the state.“Osama bin Laden is probably more popular in Suffolk County than Bill de Blasio,” said Rich Schaffer, the chairman of the county’s Democratic committee, who endorsed Gov. Kathy Hochul on Monday. “De Blasio, I would say, would have zero support if not negative out here.”At a debate during New York City’s Democratic mayoral primary this year, the candidates were asked to raise their hands if they would accept Mr. de Blasio’s endorsement. Only one contender did so — a sign of the mayor’s standing in his own party.He could also face significant competition in the city, let alone the rest of the state. New York’s attorney general, Letitia James, who, like Mr. de Blasio, is from Brooklyn, is thought to be nearing a final decision concerning a possible campaign. Jumaane D. Williams, another Brooklyn Democrat and the city’s public advocate, has already begun exploring a potential run, and others in the party are also weighing whether to get into the race.Asked whether New York should have another white male governor — Ms. Hochul is the first woman to lead the state; Ms. James and Mr. Williams are Black, and Ms. James could be the first Black woman to govern any state in the country — Mr. de Blasio appeared to brush aside the question last week.“We need people of all backgrounds to be involved in government,” he said.His plans could change. Peter Ragone, the adviser who may be closest to Mr. de Blasio’s deliberations, insisted that the mayor had not made a determination.“The simple fact is that he hasn’t made any final decisions at all about what he’s doing next,” Mr. Ragone said. “The mayor believes in public service because he can do things like push universal pre-K and 3-K. That’s why millions of New Yorkers have voted for him in the past 12 years, to the dismay of political insiders.”Many New York Democrats are incredulous that Mr. de Blasio would run and, simultaneously, believe that he may do so, pointing to his failed presidential bid as proof that he has an appetite for challenging campaigns and a steadfast belief in his own political potential.Marc Molinaro, the Dutchess County executive and unsuccessful candidate for governor in 2018, said that many of his fellow Republicans, as well as independent voters around the state, blamed Mr. de Blasio for the “rise in crime and the deterioration of the economic and social strength of New York City.”Even so, Mr. Molinaro, who said he gets along well with Mr. de Blasio, warned that it would be unwise to discount the mayor’s political prowess.“I would not underestimate his ability to develop a coalition within his party,” Mr. Molinaro said. “He’s very skilled at that.”Mr. de Blasio’s allies, too, note that in his mayoral runs, he assembled a diverse coalition in the nation’s largest city, with strong support from Black voters, although that dynamic is hardly guaranteed to transfer to a potentially crowded field in a statewide race.The Rev. Al Sharpton, the civil rights leader, said that he had spoken with Mr. de Blasio about a potential run recently but that the mayor had not indicated whether he had reached a final decision.“He has some standing in the progressive community, he has some standing in communities of color,” Mr. Sharpton said. “He should not be taken lightly.”Other veterans of New York politics were less interested in discussing the mayor’s future prospects.“I very seldom pass, but I don’t want to get involved in anything that would be negative,” said Charles B. Rangel, the former congressman from Harlem, after laughing when asked for his thoughts on a potential run by Mr. de Blasio. “And I cannot think of anything positive.” More

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      Why Democrats See 3 Governor’s Races as a Sea Wall for Fair Elections

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      Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania all have Democratic governors and G.O.P.-led legislatures. And in all three battlegrounds, Republicans are pushing hard to rewrite election laws.MADISON, Wis. — In three critical battleground states, Democratic governors have blocked efforts by Republican-controlled legislatures to restrict voting rights and undermine the 2020 election.Now, the 2022 races for governor in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania — states that have long been vital to Democratic presidential victories, including Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s — are taking on major new significance.At stake are how easy it is to vote, who controls the electoral system and, some Democrats worry, whether the results of federal, state and local elections will be accepted no matter which party wins.That has left Govs. Tony Evers of Wisconsin, Gretchen Whitmer of Michigan and Tom Wolf of Pennsylvania standing alone, in what is already expected to be a difficult year for their party, as what Democrats view as a sea wall against a rising Republican tide of voting restrictions and far-reaching election laws.The question of who wins their seats in 2022 — Mr. Evers and Ms. Whitmer are running for re-election, while Mr. Wolf is term-limited — has become newly urgent in recent weeks as Republicans in all three states, spurred on by former President Donald J. Trump, make clearer than ever their intent to reshape elections should they take unified control.Republicans have aggressively pursued partisan reviews of the 2020 election in each state. In Pennsylvania, G.O.P. lawmakers sought the personal information of every voter in the state last month. In Wisconsin, a conservative former State Supreme Court justice, who is investigating the 2020 election results on behalf of the State Assembly, issued subpoenas on Friday for voting-related documents from election officials. And in Michigan on Sunday night, Ms. Whitmer vetoed four election bills that she said “would have perpetuated the ‘big lie’ or made it harder for Michiganders to vote.”Republican candidates for governor in the three states have proposed additional cutbacks to voting access and measures that would give G.O.P. officials more power over how elections are run. And the party is pushing such efforts wherever it has the power to do so. This year, 19 Republican-controlled states have passed 33 laws restricting voting, one of the greatest contractions of access to the ballot since the Voting Rights Act was passed in 1965. Democrats in Congress have tried without success to pass federal voting laws to counteract the Republican push.The prospect that Mr. Trump may run again in 2024 only compounds what Democrats fear: that Republicans could gain full control over the three key Northern states in 2022 and, two years later, interfere with or overturn the outcome of a narrow Democratic presidential victory in 2024.“I would’ve never guessed that my job as governor when I ran a couple years ago was going to be mainly about making sure that our democracy is still intact in this state,” said Mr. Evers, a former Wisconsin schools superintendent. He was elected governor in the Democratic wave of 2018 on a platform of increasing education spending and expanding Medicaid.He and Ms. Whitmer are seeking re-election while vying to preserve the voting system, which was not built to withstand a sustained partisan assault, in the face of intensifying Republican challenges to the routine administration of elections. Mr. Wolf cannot seek a third term, but his Democratic heir apparent, Josh Shapiro, the Pennsylvania attorney general, has been on the forefront of legal efforts to defend the 2020 election results for nearly a year.The shift from focusing on traditional Democratic issues like health care and education to assuring fair elections is starkest for Mr. Evers, a man so aggressively staid that he’s partial to vanilla ice cream.Campaigning at the World Dairy Expo in Madison, Wis., Mr. Evers said that Wisconsin’s race for governor next year would be “about our democracy.”Lianne Milton for The New York TimesLast week, as he walked through a row of black-and-white Holstein cows at the World Dairy Expo, he predicted that if he were defeated next year, Republican legislators would have a direct path to reverse the results of the 2024 election.“The stakes are damn high,” Mr. Evers said above the din of mooing and milking at Madison’s annual dairy trade show. “This is about our democracy. It’s frightening.”The message that democracy itself is on the line is a potentially powerful campaign pitch for Mr. Evers and his fellow Democrats, one he has used in fund-raising appeals.Republicans dismiss the idea that they are undermining democracy and say that their various election reviews will increase, not decrease, voters’ trust in the system.“It’s full of hyperbole and exaggeration, which is what the Democrats do best on this election stuff,” Robin Vos, the speaker of the Wisconsin State Assembly, said in an interview last week at the State Capitol. “All we’re trying to do is make sure that people who were elected were elected legitimately.”Mr. Vos said he was still not sure if President Biden had legitimately won the state. (Mr. Biden carried it by more than 20,000 votes.) It would not take much to swing statewide elections in Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Four of the last six presidential contests in Wisconsin have been decided by fewer than 23,000 votes. Other than Barack Obama, no presidential nominee has won more than 51 percent of the vote in any of the three states since 1996.And as Mr. Trump and his allies chisel away at confidence in American elections by making baseless allegations of voter fraud, it is no longer a stretch to imagine governors loyal to the former president taking previously unthinkable steps to alter future results.Governors are required to submit to Congress a certificate of ascertainment of presidential electors. But what if a governor refused?Another scenario could also give a governor outsize power over the presidential election: A state could send competing slates of electors to Congress, and the House might accept one slate and the Senate the other. Then, the Electoral Count Act of 1887 — the guidelines for tallying Electoral College votes, which remained obscure until the violence of Jan. 6 — appears to give the state’s governor the tiebreaking vote.The National Task Force on Election Crises, a nonpartisan group of experts in various fields, warned about such a possibility in a September 2020 memo.“It wouldn’t be an overstatement to say that any one of those states falling to a Trump-aligned candidate would pose an existential threat to the survival of American democracy come the 2024 election,” said Ian Bassin, the executive director of Protect Democracy, a nonpartisan group dedicated to resisting authoritarianism, who convened the election crises task force before the 2020 election.Republicans have not been shy about their ambitions to change election laws in the three states.In Pennsylvania, Lou Barletta, a former congressman who recently announced a bid for governor, said that as he crossed the state last week, the top issue for voters was “election integrity.”“People talk to me about mandates, about vaccines, but they always bring up election integrity as well,” Mr. Barletta said in an interview. He said that he was waiting for the Republicans’ election review before committing to a full slate of election changes, but that he already had a few in mind, including stricter voter identification laws.Josh Shapiro, the Democratic attorney general of Pennsylvania who defended the results of the 2020 election in the state, is expected to announce his campaign for governor as soon as this month.Susan Walsh/Associated PressJames Craig, the leading Republican candidate for governor in Michigan, has backed bills that would forbid the mass mailing of absentee ballot applications to voters who do not request them and that would enact a strict voter ID requirement. He declined to comment.Those proposed laws are being pushed by Ed McBroom, a Republican state senator, even though he released a report in June debunking Trump-inspired claims of election fraud.“Somebody could pretty easily try to impersonate somebody they don’t know,” said Mr. McBroom, who leads the Michigan Senate’s elections committee.And in Wisconsin, Rebecca Kleefisch, a Republican who served as lieutenant governor under Gov. Scott Walker until 2019, is challenging Mr. Evers with a campaign platform that calls for shifting responsibility for the state’s elections from the bipartisan Wisconsin Elections Commission, which her and Mr. Walker’s administration created in 2016, to the G.O.P.-controlled Legislature. Ms. Kleefisch declined to comment. Perhaps no 2022 Democratic candidate for governor is as familiar with Republican attempts to dispute the 2020 outcome as Mr. Shapiro. As Pennsylvania’s attorney general, he defended the state in 43 lawsuits brought by Mr. Trump and his allies that challenged voting methods and the results.“There are new threats every single day on the right to vote, new efforts to disenfranchise voters, and I expect that this will be another huge test in 2022,” said Mr. Shapiro, who is planning to announce a campaign for governor as soon as this month.Last month, Mr. Shapiro filed a lawsuit to block Republicans in the Pennsylvania Senate after they sought the personal information of all seven million voters in the state as part of their election review, including driver’s license numbers and partial Social Security numbers.Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is running for re-election in Michigan, where Republican election officials tried to stall the certification of the results of the state’s 2020 presidential race.Sarahbeth Maney/The New York TimesIn Michigan, Ms. Whitmer, who has faced threats of an insurrection in her statehouse and a kidnapping plot, is now fighting a Republican attempt to work around her expected veto of a host of proposed voting restrictions.“The only thing that is preventing the rollback of voting rights in Michigan right now is the threat of my veto,” she said in an interview.Michigan was also home to one of the most forceful and arcane attempts at reversing the outcome in 2020, when Republican election officials, at Mr. Trump’s behest, tried to refuse to certify the results in Wayne County and stall the certification of the state’s overall results. That memory, combined with new voting bills and Republican attempts to review the state’s election results, makes Michigan’s election next year all the more important, Ms. Whitmer said.“If they make it harder or impossible for droves of people not to be able to participate in the election,” she said, “that doesn’t just impact Michigan elections, but elections for federal offices as well, like the U.S. Senate and certainly the White House.”Mr. Vos said he had not thought about the degree to which Wisconsin Republicans could change voting laws if the state had a Republican governor. But this year, the State Legislature passed a package of six bills that would have enacted a range of new voting restrictions.Mr. Evers vetoed them all.“I’ve learned to play goalie in this job,” he said. “And I’ll continue to do that.” More

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      James Weighs a Run As Governor as Hochul Locks Key Endorsement

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      The chairman of the New York State Democratic Party endorsed Gov. Kathy Hochul, contending that a multicandidate primary in 2022 could damage the party.The chairman of the New York State Democratic Party on Monday endorsed Gov. Kathy Hochul in next year’s primary race, arguing that a fierce multicandidate free-for-all could be damaging to the party — even as several potential contenders take increasingly serious steps toward runs of their own.Jay Jacobs, the party chairman, said that the endorsement was his own, and not that of the state party. But his announcement was seen as an early effort to coalesce support behind Ms. Hochul, who ascended to the governorship after Andrew M. Cuomo resigned in disgrace.But Mr. Jacobs’s effort to bring the whole party along is already facing resistance — and he acknowledged as much, as he alluded to the increasing activity surrounding the race.“From the beginning, I have been urging those interested in looking into running for governor to hold their powder, to wait and allow Governor Hochul to get the job done and to make her mark,” Mr. Jacobs said at a news conference on Long Island. “Unfortunately, over the past few days, it seems that a number of candidates are becoming more anxious.”Indeed, last week the New York City public advocate, Jumaane D. Williams, launched an exploratory committee; the state attorney general, Letitia James, indicated that she was nearing a final decision on whether to run; and other Democrats, including Mayor Bill de Blasio, U.S. Representative Thomas Suozzi of Long Island and the Suffolk County executive, Steven Bellone, are also thought to be interested.“A party torn apart by multiple candidates in multiple primaries for multiple offices will exhaust precious resources, divide us and make us weaker in a year that we need to be at our strongest,” Mr. Jacobs added. “We have a governor that is proving she can do the job and do it with distinction. We have a governor who we know can win against any Republican candidate they put up in the fall.”The backing of Mr. Jacobs, who is also the chair of the Nassau County Democratic Committee, and another endorsement on Monday from Rich Schaffer, the head of the Suffolk County Democrats, underscore Ms. Hochul’s potential strength on vote-rich Long Island ahead of next year’s Democratic primary.Yet even as Mr. Jacobs spoke, perhaps Ms. Hochul’s most powerful would-be rival was about 25 miles away, appearing on a stage that, stylistically if not in substance, could have been mistaken for a campaign tableau.Ms. James was in the South Bronx on Monday morning, kicking off a statewide tour in which “she will begin delivering the first of up to $1.5 billion to combat the opioid epidemic,” her office said, tapping into settlements she negotiated. The tour is run through her government team, and the event was often sober as speakers shared painful stories about how the opioid crisis has ravaged neighborhoods across the city.“We’re not talking about politics, we’re talking about lives today,” she admonished a reporter who asked about Mr. Jacobs’s endorsement.Letitia James, the state attorney general, appeared in the South Bronx on Monday to begin a statewide tour to distribute money to fight the opioid epidemic.Dieu-Nalio Chéry for The New York TimesNevertheless, the tour comes as Ms. James and her allies have made clear that she is weighing a run for governor — and so the event, which illustrated Ms. James’s relationships in diverse communities around New York City, took on a fresh layer of significance.She was flanked by City Council members, Assembly members and state senators, and Representatives Adriano Espaillat and Jamaal Bowman.“With an event like this, she’s an effective A.G., capturing all those dollars to help our communities,” Mr. Espaillat said in a brief interview after the event. “That means that she would probably be an effective governor.”“We’ll be taking a look at all the candidates,” he added. “I think she would make a terrific candidate but that’s her choice.”Questions around whether Ms. James would run and what the rest of the field would look like have stopped some county chairs from joining Mr. Jacobs in making endorsements, though he suggested he expected others to indicate their support in coming days.“Kathy Hochul’s been doing a great job as governor and I hope she succeeds, but I think things need to play out a little bit more,” said Suzanne Berger, the chair of the Westchester County Democratic Committee. “The attorney general, who has also been a great elected official, needs an opportunity and space to make the best decision for herself and the state as well.”Other Democrats were openly critical of Mr. Jacobs’s move to intervene in a primary, especially at a relatively early juncture in the race — though there are few other recent points of comparison. Mr. Cuomo was in office for a decade, and before that, party officials asked Gov. David A. Paterson not to seek a full term after he took over from the disgraced former Gov. Eliot Spitzer.Mr. Williams said in a statement that Mr. Jacobs’s role, “and that of the highest ranking Democratic officials in our state, should be to uplift Democratic candidates, Democratic voters, and democratic values.” Mr. Williams also noted Mr. Jacobs’s longtime alliance with Mr. Cuomo, who on Monday released yet another statement ripping into the independent investigation into his conduct released by Ms. James’s office. The ex-governor lamented that “this is not New York at her finest.” There has been considerable speculation around whether Mr. Cuomo — whose resignation speech doubled as a defense of his legacy — would seek to put real money into meddling in the race.Mr. Jacobs said that he had given Mr. Cuomo, among others, a heads-up on the endorsement, a remark that drew some attention on Monday.“I’m not involved in that, I truly am not,” Ms. Hochul said, when asked about Mr. Jacobs’s decision to engage Mr. Cuomo. “I’m proud to have the support of Jay Jacobs, Rich Schaffer and anyone else who wants to line up behind me, but they know that’s not my focus.”And asked about Mr. Cuomo’s missive, she replied, “I’m actually too busy governing New York to worry about emails that are written by people.” More

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      Is Letitia James Running for New York Governor?

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      Ms. James, New York’s attorney general, has embarked on a campaign-like tour of the state and is discussing her plans with donors and officials.In recent days, Letitia James, New York’s attorney general, has given every public indication that she is thinking about running for governor.Over the course of the past week, she courted business and civic leaders, delivering a much-analyzed speech in which she described a vision for the state that extended well beyond the duties of her current job, and declared that “there is no upstate or downstate way to make government work.” She schmoozed with Democratic leaders in Brooklyn and the Bronx, addressed a League of Conservation Voters gala in Manhattan and campaigned with a Westchester County legislator.But it was behind closed doors at an event on Thursday for Ulster County Democrats in Kingston, N.Y., that she offered what appears to be the most candid assessment to date of her political future: She has a big decision to make, and she intends to make it soon.“You might be wondering about my future plans — just saying,” Ms. James said, to whoops and applause, according to a recording of the event obtained by The New York Times. “The question for me really boils down to this: What is the best way that I can make transformational change in the State of New York?”“I don’t know the answer,” she continued, in remarks that were also reported by The New York Post. She added later, “That day is coming very, very soon.”Yet the public actions and private conversations of Ms. James and those around her in recent weeks leave little doubt: She is taking serious and accelerated steps toward a potential run for governor, according to interviews with more than two dozen New York Democratic officials. Her entry into a contest in which Gov. Kathy Hochul is already running would instantly elevate next year’s primary into an expensive, high-profile and closely watched intraparty battle.“I don’t think anybody would question: Would she be capable of running the state?” Donovan Richards, the Queens borough president, said of Ms. James’s deliberations. “The question is, will she run? Is she running? And I think that’s what’s on the mind of every political insider at the moment.”Behind the scenes, Ms. James and her allies have made it clear to donors, elected officials and other Democratic power brokers that she is weighing a bid and is nearing a final decision. Her team is close to making additional political hires, according to a person who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal matters.“I have not made an ultimate — I have not made a decision,” Ms. James said in a brief interview on Thursday, quickly rephrasing in an apparent effort to avoid suggesting she had made a determination about her plans.“A number of individuals have approached me with respect to running for higher office,” she said, even as she repeatedly insisted that her focus was on her current job.But asked to characterize those conversations, Ms. James did not shy away.“That I should consider it because of my leadership, because of my ability to speak truth to power, because of my experience and because of my ability to unite the state,” she said. “I’m still focused on the office of attorney general, but I thank them for their comments.”Her comments came after she spoke briefly at a gathering of the Brooklyn Democratic Party at Junior’s, a restaurant known for cheesecake and political events.The scene there offered one of the most vivid illustrations yet of how the Democratic primary has begun to take shape in the past week, with the nascent contours of a campaign trail coming into view.Ms. Hochul, the state’s first female governor, was there as well, part of her breakneck public schedule as she also moves aggressively to try to cement a huge fund-raising advantage in advance of the primary. She spoke before both Ms. James and Jumaane D. Williams, New York City’s public advocate, who announced this week that he had formed an exploratory committee and was considering his own run. (“Great job as public advocate!” Ms. Hochul cracked wryly.)Ms. Hochul, Ms. James and Mr. Williams made the rounds through a room packed with party activists and elected leaders who clamored for selfies and hugs in between bites of scrambled eggs and sips from precariously balanced coffee cups. Mayor Bill de Blasio, who is also thought to be weighing a run, also dropped by, a day after he and the others were at a gathering of Bronx Democrats.It is possible that Ms. James may not ultimately challenge Ms. Hochul. She does not have a history as a strong fund-raiser, though her allies are hopeful that as the potential first Black female governor in America, she would attract national attention and support should she run. She would also have to give up her current job to run for governor, and she might prefer to seek another term as attorney general instead — boosted, perhaps, by the attention her recent activity has attracted.A representative for Ms. James declined to comment for this article.Each day brings fresh signs that the governor’s race is shaping up to be competitive and complicated.Ms. Hochul enjoys significant good will from many New Yorkers, ascending to the governorship after Andrew M. Cuomo resigned in disgrace after an independent investigation released by Ms. James’s office found he had sexually harassed 11 women.Ms. James with Anne Clark and Joon Kim, the two outside lawyers she hired to lead the investigation that prompted Andrew M. Cuomo, the former governor, to resign.Dave Sanders for The New York TimesSince taking over, Ms. Hochul, a native of western New York who is seen as a moderate, has forged ahead with several policies that are popular among many left-wing leaders. She has been a constant presence in New York City as she seeks to shore up her standing downstate, and she named a lieutenant governor, Brian A. Benjamin, who represented Harlem in the State Senate. She is also poised to benefit from the power of incumbency, including the ability to complete critical projects across the state, which would give her a concrete record to promote.“The people I hear from who have long waited for a woman to be governor are very clear that they are going to be supporting her,” Assemblywoman Deborah J. Glick of Manhattan said of Ms. Hochul.Ms. Glick said she had heard next year’s race described as akin to a contest for an open seat. “I wonder if that would have been a comment that would have been made if it was a man,” she said.Mr. Williams, who, like Ms. James, is from Brooklyn, is beloved by many on the left, and some officials who are close to both worry about whether one would siphon votes from the other if they were both in the race, though their political bases are hardly identical.Other Democrats, including Representative Thomas Suozzi of Long Island, have taken steps toward a possible run.Then there is the Cuomo factor: The former governor has an $18 million war chest he could deploy to meddle in the race, and he has already attacked Ms. James, despite initially backing the independent investigation himself. She used the first part of her recent speech to business leaders to sharply rebuke his attacks and to defend her own work.“You could tell, when the speech started, that everyone perked up, stopped what they were doing, were very focused on what she had to say, which is very rare in those rooms,” said Assemblywoman Nily Rozic of Queens, who praised Ms. James for having “set the record straight.” At the Ulster County event, the crowd grew rowdy as Ms. James reached her crescendo.“So just stay with me and pray with me,” she said. “And stay tuned.” More