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      Why Yes-or-No Questions on Abortion Rights Could Be a Key to 2024

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      In states that will help decide control of the White House and Congress, Democrats are campaigning furiously alongside ballot measures to protect abortion rights, putting Republicans on their heels.As Democrats confront a presidential race against a resurgent and resilient Donald J. Trump as well as a brutally challenging Senate map, they believe they have an increasingly powerful political weapon: ballot measures to protect abortion rights.Two crucial presidential and Senate battlegrounds, Arizona and Nevada, are expected to put such measures directly before voters. So are other states with top Senate races, including Maryland and potentially Montana. And abortion rights measures are set or could appear on ballots in states like New York, Florida and Nebraska, where competitive contests could help determine whether Democrats win back the House.Hopeful Democrats — and worried Republicans — are acutely aware that in all seven states where abortion has been put directly to voters since the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, the abortion rights side has won, in both red states like Ohio and Kansas as well as swing states like Michigan. Those measures have sometimes fueled surges in liberal turnout that have lifted Democratic candidates to victory, as well.So in every state where an abortion measure is already on the 2024 ballot or could yet appear, Democratic candidates, state parties and allied groups are campaigning furiously alongside the ballot initiatives, running ads, helping pour money behind them and bringing up the measures in speech after speech.In Arizona, where Democrats are trying to flip the Legislature, the party’s candidates have gone so far as to collect signatures for the state’s ballot measure as they knock on voters’ doors.“When the abortion petition initiative came out, it was a no-brainer that I would carry it with me,” said Brandy Reese, a Democrat running for the Arizona House who said she had gathered dozens of signatures while campaigning. “I introduce myself as a pro-choice candidate running, and you can instantly tell in people’s body language that they’re excited to hear that.”The wave of abortion referendums — some of which are not officially on the ballot yet but most of which have enough signatures to get there, according to organizers — is adding new unpredictability to an election season already convulsed by Mr. Trump’s criminal cases and wrenching questions about the future of the country’s democracy.With polls showing that a majority of Americans think abortion should be legal in all or most cases, the measures could serve as a political life raft at a time when President Biden faces stubbornly low approval ratings and skepticism within his party. Democrats hope the ballot initiatives will increase turnout among core voters like suburban women, young people and African Americans.“The ballot initiatives are well-funded and well-organized efforts,” said Christina Freundlich, a Democratic strategist. “It’s creating a tremendous sense of energy not only within the Democratic Party but with voters across the board.”Party leaders are echoing that message.“Momentum is on our side,” Vice President Kamala Harris said at an abortion rights event on Wednesday in Jacksonville, Fla. “Just think about it: Since Roe was overturned, every time reproductive freedom has been on the ballot, the people of America voted for freedom.”Beyond electoral politics, the ballot initiatives regarding abortion have driven huge interest and turnout because of their direct impact on voters’ lives. In Florida, for example, a newly enforced ban on nearly all abortions in the state has cut off a critical access point to patients across the Southeast. In Arizona, lawmakers this week repealed a near-total ban on abortions — but the state is now set to enforce a 15-week ban with no exceptions for rape or incest.Medical practitioners have also expressed concerns about facing criminal penalties under the bans.“The fear of that is just devastating,” said Mona Mangat, board chair of the Committee to Protect Health Care, an advocacy group that is supporting ballot initiatives in several states. “It’s going to be devastating for practitioners and devastating for patients.”Ms. Mangat said the restrictions could affect whether doctors wanted to move to those states to practice medicine or attend residency programs.In Nevada, abortion is legal within the first 24 weeks of pregnancy. Organizers there are collecting signatures to place an amendment on the ballot that would establish a right to an abortion in the State Constitution. Key Democrats in the state, including Senator Jacky Rosen, who is facing a close re-election fight, have signed onto the petition.Representative Dina Titus, another Nevada Democrat, said in an interview that the amendment would still motivate voters to turn out, especially young people, even without the driving force of overturning far-reaching restrictions. “We’ll talk about it in terms of how this will really protect women,” Ms. Titus said. “And we’ll use it to attract young women and just young people generally to the polls, because they will suddenly realize something they took for granted is not going to be available.”Representative Dina Titus and other Nevada Democrats believe that the state’s proposed amendment to enshrine abortion rights in its Constitution will drive up liberal turnout.Elizabeth Frantz/ReutersRepublican candidates and their allies have appeared reluctant to directly campaign against ballot measures to protect abortion rights, though some G.O.P. leaders have voiced opposition. In Ohio, Gov. Mike DeWine recorded a video opposing the state’s initiative last year, and in Florida, Gov. Ron DeSantis has said the current ballot measure is too broad. “To nuke parental consent for minors is totally unacceptable,” he said at an event last month.Some Republicans openly worry that restrictive measures like Florida’s may play into the hands of Democrats, given how abortion referendums in recent cycles have unfolded.“Kansas and Ohio to me is what everyone should be looking at,” said Vicki Lopez, a state representative from Miami who was one of a handful of Republican legislators to vote against Florida’s six-week ban. Voters will now decide in November whether to add a right to an abortion to the State Constitution, with a question known as Amendment Four. “This will be a test.”But Ms. Lopez added that it would be a mistake to assume that “everyone who votes for Amendment Four is actually going to then vote for Biden.”Regardless, Democrats believe they have the advantage. In a memo last month, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee wrote that “reproductive freedom will remain a driving issue for voters this November” and that the group would “ensure that House Republicans’ efforts to ban abortion nationwide are top of mind as voters head to the polls.”The D.C.C.C. said it had identified 18 competitive House seats in states where abortion measures are likely to be on the ballot. Republicans are trying to protect a slim House majority.Money for the ballot measures has cascaded in from both major liberal groups and small donors. Some so-called dark money organizations, whose donors are not disclosed, have contributed millions, including the Open Society Policy Center, the Sixteen Thirty Fund and the Fairness Project. Other advocacy groups, like Planned Parenthood and the American Civil Liberties Union, have also contributed seven figures.Think Big America, an abortion rights group started by Gov. J.B. Pritzker of Illinois, has spent heavily to support abortion initiatives. After dropping $1 million in Ohio last year, it has already spent $1 million in Arizona and Nevada and has made what it called a “quick investment” of $500,000 in Montana, where the issue is not yet on the November ballot.“This has a power to not only turn out Democrats but also make sure that folks that are on the fence — swing voters, independents, persuadable voters — are coming over to the side that has had a longstanding belief in reproductive freedom,” said Michael Ollen, the executive director of Think Big America.In Arizona, Gov. Katie Hobbs has directed her well-funded state political action committee, Arizona Communities United, to focus heavily on the ballot initiative.Ms. Hobbs, who has navigated slim Republican majorities in the Legislature for the first two years of her term, has made flipping both chambers a main goal for 2024, and she views the ballot measure as a central part of that effort.Gov. Katie Hobbs of Arizona has directed her state political action committee to focus heavily on the state’s ballot measure. Mark Henle/The Republic, via USA Today NetworkIn Nevada, the Biden campaign has invited ballot initiative organizers to collect signatures at events featuring Jill Biden and Ms. Harris.Giving a speech in the state last month, Ms. Harris thanked the signature gatherers in the audience. They responded by holding up their clipboards and cheering.“We’re going to win this ballot initiative,” the vice president said. “And Joe Biden and I are going back to the White House.”Patricia Mazzei More

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      New Progressive PAC Targets 8 Key House Races in California

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      Democrats nearly pulled off the impossible in the 2022 midterms.In the final weeks of the campaign, with an unpopular president in his first term, polls forecast a red wave that would sweep the country and flip control of the House and the Senate — prompting alarm from Democrats and predictions from Republicans of a decisive victory.But that wave never materialized, a mirage of bad polling and inflated expectations. Democrats came close to maintaining a national trifecta, but Republicans eked out a thin majority in the House — prevailing in a handful of seats in New York and California, each by just a few thousand votes.Now, a new coalition of progressive groups in California has formed a super PAC aiming to bolster Democratic candidates in a state that the party sees as crucial to winning control of the House this fall.The super PAC, Battleground California, says it aims to spend $15 million this year on eight competitive House races, seven with Republican incumbents — in Northern California, Orange County, the Inland Empire east of Los Angeles, the Central Valley and Los Angeles — as well as the seat left open by Representative Katie Porter, a Democrat who is not running for re-election after a failed Senate campaign.It is an ambitious effort, one that seeks to establish a durable progressive machine in California — advised and supported by local activists and community organizations — to lift swing district Democratic candidates through an extensive field operation, including marathon door-knocking campaigns aimed at driving turnout among minority groups.“Trusted messengers from the community are a very critical element,” said Steve Phillips, a co-founder of the California Donor Table, the group leading the Battleground California PAC, adding that those residents are not only more trusted by voters but are better able to provide feedback on what messages work and what messages don’t.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Timothy Kennedy, a Democrat, Wins New York Special House Election

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      The victory by Timothy Kennedy, a Democratic state senator, was not a surprise. But it will make Republicans’ lives more difficult in Washington.Timothy M. Kennedy, a Democratic New York State senator, easily won a special House election on Tuesday to replace a retiring congressman in western New York, according to The Associated Press.The victory was hardly a surprise. Democrats have controlled the Buffalo-area district for decades. And Mr. Kennedy outspent his Republican opponent, Gary Dickson, by an eye-popping 47 to 1.But his victory will have an immediate impact on the House at a time when Speaker Mike Johnson of Louisiana is laboring to hold onto a narrow Republican majority and fend off a rebellion on his right flank.Once Mr. Kennedy is seated, Mr. Johnson’s margin will effectively shrink to just a single, tenuous vote on partisan issues. A handful of special elections in Wisconsin, Ohio, Colorado and California are expected to offer Republicans reinforcements, but not until this summer.In the meantime, Mr. Kennedy, 47, is expected to provide a reliably liberal vote. He campaigned on a familiar Democratic platform, promising to fight for federal infrastructure dollars for a region that has struggled economically, for federal abortion rights and against former President Donald J. Trump, the presumptive Republican nominee to face President Biden this fall.Mr. Dickson, a former F.B.I. agent and local town supervisor, ran a relatively moderate campaign for a Republican in the Trump era. He had endorsed the former president, but called the Jan. 6 Capitol riot “a travesty.” He supported Ukraine’s war against Russia and federal investment in transportation projects, spending priorities that more conservative Republicans forcefully oppose.But it was not enough to win over a district that counts more than twice as many Democrats as Republicans. With 62 percent of the votes counted, Mr. Kennedy was beating Mr. Dickson by 34 percentage points, 67 to 33.The seat was vacated in February by the retirement of Brian Higgins, a moderate Democrat who had represented the Buffalo area for 19 years.Mr. Higgins, who left the job early to lead Shea’s Performing Arts Center in Buffalo, was part of a wave of seasoned lawmakers from both parties heading toward the exits this year. Like many others, Mr. Higgins, 64, cited an increasingly toxic and unproductive environment on Capitol Hill.Mr. Kennedy is a former occupational therapist who has served in the New York State Senate since 2011. In Albany, he led an important legislative committee on transportation and supported a tough package of gun safety measures after a racist shooter killed 10 people at a Buffalo supermarket in 2022. He also earned a reputation as a prolific fund-raiser.He was selected directly by party leaders as the Democratic nominee to serve the remainder of Mr. Higgins’s term. Mr. Kennedy will likely remain in campaign mode this year, with a Democratic primary in June and November’s general election still ahead.The district sweeps north from Buffalo, including the city, many of its suburbs and Niagara Falls. More

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      Summer Lee, ‘Squad’ Member, Wins Democratic House Primary in Pennsylvania

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      Representative Summer Lee, a first-term progressive Democrat, won her primary contest in western Pennsylvania on Tuesday, according to The Associated Press, fending off a moderate challenger in a race that centered on her stance on the war in Gaza.The primary, in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, presented one of this year’s first down-ballot tests of whether left-wing incumbents would be hurt by their opposition to Israel’s military campaign. After Ms. Lee for months faced scrutiny for voting against support for Israel, her victory was partly seen as a reflection of how public, and party, sentiment on the issue has appeared to shift in her favor.The congresswoman was winning by an overwhelming margin with counting nearly complete late Tuesday, underlining the strength of her position as an incumbent this year after she out-raised her opponent with widespread backing from Democratic officials.Ms. Lee, who in 2022 was elected the first Black woman to represent Pennsylvania in Congress and later joined the group of left-leaning lawmakers known as the Squad, defeated Bhavini Patel, a city councilwoman in Edgewood, Pa. Ms. Patel ran as a more moderate Democrat and tried to paint Ms. Lee as dismissive of voters who oppose her approach to the conflict in Gaza. The seat is considered safely Democratic in the general election.A former state representative, Ms. Lee, 36, narrowly won a primary fight in the district two years ago against a centrist opponent favored by the party’s establishment. Her victory was heralded by left-leaning organizations and leaders as a win for the progressive movement.This year, Ms. Lee, now the incumbent, garnered support across the Democratic spectrum. Her endorsers included Pennsylvania’s senators, House Democratic leaders, labor unions and the Allegheny County Democratic Committee, which opposed her candidacy in 2022. Progressive groups spent large sums on her behalf, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Democrat of New York, stumped for her in Pittsburgh on Sunday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Three Takeaways From the Pennsylvania Primaries

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      With the 2024 primary season entering the homestretch — and the presidential matchup already set — hundreds of thousands of Pennsylvanians cast their ballots on Tuesday in Senate and House contests as well as for president and local races.President Biden and former President Donald J. Trump, who had been heading toward a 2020 rematch for months before securing their parties’ nominations in March, scored overwhelming victories in their primaries, facing opponents who had long since dropped out of the race. But Nikki Haley, Mr. Trump’s former rival in the Republican primaries, still took more than 100,000 votes across the state.A long-awaited Senate matchup was officially set, as well, as David McCormick and Senator Bob Casey won their uncontested primaries.And Representative Summer Lee, a progressive first-term Democrat, fended off a moderate challenger who had opposed her criticism of Israel’s war in Gaza. While Mr. Biden has faced protest votes in a number of states, Ms. Lee’s race was one of the first down-ballot tests of where Democrats stand on the war.Here are three takeaways.A progressive Democrat fended off a challenge that focused on her criticism of Israel’s military campaign.Ms. Lee, a first-term progressive Democrat who represents a Pittsburgh-area district, was an early critic of Israel’s war in Gaza, where about 34,000 people have died since the war began six months ago. Ms. Lee’s stances against Israel’s military campaign drew a primary challenge from Bhavini Patel, a moderate Democrat who opposed Ms. Lee’s approach on the war.But Ms. Lee emerged victorious, suggesting that public sentiment on the war, particularly among Democrats, has shifted significantly against Israel in the six months since the war began.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Pennsylvania Holds Its Primaries Today. Here’s What to Watch.

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      Pennsylvanians are heading to the polls on Tuesday, with a handful of House primary races in the spotlight.The contest getting the most attention is the Democratic primary in the Pittsburgh-based 12th District, where Representative Summer Lee, who has been outspoken in support of a cease-fire in Gaza, is facing Bhavini Patel, who has attacked Ms. Lee as anti-Israel and outside the political mainstream.Ms. Lee, a first-term representative who is part of the progressive “Squad” and narrowly won her primary in 2022 over a more centrist candidate, was one of the first members of Congress to criticize Israel’s actions in Gaza and call for an immediate cease-fire. That angered some Jewish voters in her district, though national pro-Israel groups like AIPAC have not gotten involved in her race, as they have in others. Ms. Patel has been vastly outraised in the contest, and the once-expected ideological battle over Israel has fizzled in much of the district.On the other side of the aisle and the state — in the First District, in the suburbs north of Philadelphia — Representative Brian Fitzpatrick, one of the most moderate Republicans in the House, is facing a primary challenge from an anti-abortion activist, Mark Houck.Mr. Fitzpatrick is one of a small number of Republicans representing districts that Joseph R. Biden Jr. carried in 2020. He won his last two general elections with relative ease. But if Republican voters nominate Mr. Houck — who was acquitted last year of charges that involved assaulting a Planned Parenthood volunteer outside an abortion clinic — it could make the district more competitive for Democrats, given the political potency of abortion.Two other primaries may also set up competitive general-election contests.In the Seventh District, three Republicans are vying to face Representative Susan Wild, a Democrat who won by just two points in 2022. And in the 10th District, six Democrats are running to face Representative Scott Perry, a Republican who was closely involved with Mr. Trump’s efforts to overturn the 2020 election.The presidential and Senate races are also on the ballot, but are not competitive. Mr. Biden and former President Donald J. Trump clinched their respective nominations last month, and Senator Bob Casey and his Republican challenger, David McCormick, are running unopposed in their primaries.The polls are open until 8 p.m. Eastern time. More

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      Ocasio-Cortez and Others Rally With Summer Lee Ahead of Primary

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      A high-energy crowd rallied on Sunday in Pittsburgh to support Representative Summer Lee, a left-leaning congresswoman whose primary on Tuesday is a high-profile test whether she can stave off a challenge aimed in part at her stance over the war in Gaza.Headlining the event were Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, the progressive lawmaker, and Justin Jones, the Tennessee state representative who rose to stardom when he was briefly ousted for protesting inaction on state gun legislation.Speakers framed Ms. Lee’s race, in Pennsylvania’s 12th District, as crucial to building a movement for working people and to fighting what they cast as billionaire influence in the race.The rally with several hundred supporters drew a small group of protesters who held signs outside the headquarters of the Pittsburgh Federation of Teachers to criticize Ms. Lee and Ms. Ocasio-Cortez’s stances on the war in Israel and Gaza. Ms. Lee’s primary is one of the first down-ballot electoral tests of the Israel-Gaza conflict this year.“To fight for common sense in the House is to often be alone. I have seen Summer walk alone,” Ms. Ocasio-Cortez said. “On Tuesday, what we must do is show her and show the world and show the people in that big white house that she is not alone.”“It’s not about winning — it’s about winning big,” she added.Ms. Lee won a close primary in 2022 against a moderate challenger on her way to become the first Black woman to represent Pennsylvania in Congress. She has garnered broad support from Democrats this year. Even so, she has also faced pressure within her district after becoming one of the first members of Congress to call for an immediate cease-fire, just over a week after Hamas attacked Israel, and Israel responded with a military assault on Gaza.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Alabama Runoff Elections Set Field in Newly Competitive House District

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      Shomari Figures, a Democrat who worked in the Justice Department, will face Caroleene Dobson, a lawyer and Republican political newcomer, this November for the seat in Alabama’s Second Congressional District, according to The Associated Press.The two candidates won primary runoff elections on Tuesday in the district, which was redrawn after the U.S. Supreme Court ruled last year that the state had illegally diluted the power of Black voters.Now that the district has more Black voters, who historically have largely supported Democrats, political analysts see the race for it as one of the most competitive in the South. The nonpartisan Cook Political Report ranks it as a likely Democratic seat. (The district’s current representative, Barry Moore, is expected to remain in Congress after winning the Republican primary in the neighboring First Congressional District.)The Second District now stretches across the state, encompassing much of Mobile; Montgomery, the Alabama capital; and several counties in the Black Belt, where rich soil once fueled plantations worked by enslaved people.In the Republican primary, Ms. Dobson faced Dick Brewbaker, a former state senator. Mr. Brewbaker repeatedly pointed to his experience in the State Legislature, while Ms. Dobson argued that it was time for a newer political voice in Washington.In the Democratic runoff, Mr. Figures’s opponent was State Representative Anthony Daniels, the House Democratic leader.Mr. Figures’s family has a long political legacy in Alabama: He is the son of Michael Figures and Vivian Davis Figures, who have both served in the State Senate, with Ms. Davis Figures winning her husband’s seat after his death in 1996. Shomari Figures moved back to Alabama after working in the Justice Department and the Obama administration.Mr. Daniels does not live in the district — a point of contention in the race, though residency is not a requirement — but grew up there. He argued that his leadership position in the State House had shown that he could deliver for Alabama residents.The November elections could result in Alabama sending two Black representatives to Washington for the first time in its history if Mr. Figures were to win and if Representative Terri Sewell, the Democrat in the Sixth Congressional District, wins re-election, as analysts widely expect. More