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      Nicola Sturgeon Resigns as Scotland’s First Minister, Citing Toll of the Job

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      Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation removes one of the most formidable figures from British politics, one who has dedicated her life to the cause of Scottish independence.LONDON — Nicola Sturgeon, a fiery campaigner for Scotland’s independence who led its government for more than eight years, resigned on Wednesday, declaring that she was exhausted and had become too polarizing a figure to lead the country’s hurly-burly politics as it weighs another bid to break from Britain.Her resignation removes one of the most formidable figures from British politics. A skilled veteran of the United Kingdom’s system of power sharing and a sure-handed leader during the coronavirus pandemic, she outlasted four British prime ministers, while bedeviling each of them with her unyielding push for Scottish independence.But that goal has remained elusive and appears no closer than it was nearly a decade ago, when voters rejected a proposal for independence. Support for leaving the union has ebbed and flowed over the years, but the British government remains implacably opposed to another referendum. And Ms. Sturgeon said she was no longer the leader to see the battle through.“Is carrying on right for me?” Ms. Sturgeon, 52, said at a news conference in Edinburgh. “And, more important, is me carrying on right for my country, my party, and for the independence cause I have devoted my life to?”“I’ve reached the difficult conclusion that it’s not,” she said.In recent weeks, Ms. Sturgeon had also become embroiled in a dispute over the Scottish government’s transgender policy. Britain’s Parliament rejected legislation from Scotland’s Parliament making it easier for people to legally change their gender. Ms. Sturgeon said she would remain as first minister until the Scottish National Party, which controls Parliament, chooses a successor, most likely at a party conference next month. So dominant is her position that political analysts said there was no obvious successor — an acute problem for a party that faces a crossroads on independence, but a weakness that she said was another reason for her to relinquish the stage now.There was a distinct echo in Ms. Sturgeon’s resignation of the similar decision by Jacinda Ardern, the prime minister of New Zealand, who announced her resignation last month by saying she “no longer had enough in the tank.” Both women emphasized the relentless toll of their jobs and their yearning to focus on other parts of their lives.Journalists and members of the public gathered outside Bute House, the official residence of the first minister, where Ms. Sturgeon held a news conference.Pool photo by Jane BarlowLike Ms. Ardern, Ms. Sturgeon drew widespread attention for adopting policies on Covid that diverged from those of other countries — in her case, keeping lockdowns in place longer than in neighboring England. As with Ms. Ardern, Ms. Sturgeon’s Covid policies brought mixed results and her popularity, while still decent, dimmed as the urgency of the pandemic gave way to concerns about the economy.“While Sturgeon is effectively the equivalent of a state governor, she has an extraordinary international profile,” said Nicola McEwen, professor of territorial politics at the University of Edinburgh. “But she has become a figure who divides; there is a recognition that she may not be the person to get them to the next level.”Still, her announcement left Scotland’s political establishment slack jawed. Only last month, she told the BBC that she had “plenty in the tank” to continue leading Scotland and was “nowhere near ready” to step down.On Wednesday, however, Ms. Sturgeon said she had been wrestling for weeks over whether to resign. She spoke about only realizing now how exhausting the pandemic was for her, and said she had come to a final decision on Tuesday while attending the funeral of Allan Angus, a friend and leading figure in the Scottish National Party.Ms. Sturgeon has been married to Peter Murrell, the chief executive of the S.N.P., since 2010. She does not have children, but spoke about her twin niece and nephew during her resignation speech, noting that when she had entered government in 2007, both were very young and now they were celebrating their 17th birthday.Commuters heading home during rush hour in Edinburgh on Wednesday evening spoke of their surprise at Ms. Sturgeon’s choice. Regardless of their opinions on her politics, many said that it was an important moment for the nation.Sean MacMillan, 29, said he expected her decision to step down could have an impact on the push for a second independence referendum as she did not have a clear strong successor. “It is really unclear who is coming next, and I am sure it will change with that,” he said.Prime Minister Rishi Sunak offered restrained praise, thanking Ms. Sturgeon on Twitter “for her long-standing service. I wish her all the best for her next steps.” Mr. Sunak and Ms. Sturgeon have a cordial relationship, an improvement over the scarcely concealed hostility between her and one of Mr. Sunak’s predecessors, Boris Johnson.A photograph released by 10 Downing Street showing Prime Minister Rishi Sunak of Britain and First Minister Nicola Sturgeon of Scotland during a meeting in Inverness, Scotland, last month.Simon Walker/No 10 Downing Street, via ReutersMs. Sturgeon denied she had resigned over the transgender legislation or any other short-term political setbacks. But she said that in the current hothouse political environment, “issues that are controversial end up almost irrationally so.”Scotland’s law would allow transgender people to have the gender with which they identify legally recognized, and to get a new birth certificate without a medical diagnosis. But the British government swiftly overruled the Scottish Parliament, saying the law conflicted with equality laws that apply across Britain.For Ms. Sturgeon, passing the legislation was part of what she said was a deeply felt commitment to protect minority rights, and she denounced the British government’s decision to block it. But the law was less popular with the Scottish public than it was in Parliament. And it quickly became a cudgel in the heated cultural clash over transgender rights, with both sides seizing on it to attack the other.The debate was inflamed by the case of Isla Bryson, who was convicted of raping two women before her gender transition. She was initially placed in a women’s prison, prompting an outcry over the safety of other female inmates. Ms. Sturgeon later announced that Ms. Bryson had been moved to a men’s prison.The handling of the case exposed Ms. Sturgeon to sharp criticism and put her in an awkward position when she was quizzed repeatedly at a news conference about whether she regarded Ms. Bryson as a woman.“She regards herself as a woman,” a visibly frustrated Ms. Sturgeon replied. “I regard the individual as a rapist.”A rally against a controversial transgender legislation in Glasgow earlier this month.Andy Buchanan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhen it came to independence, Ms. Sturgeon was rarely at a loss for words. Having joined the Scottish National Party when she was 16, she spent much of her time trying to secure for Scotland as much power over its own affairs as possible. Allies described her as one of the most important leaders of the era of devolution, when London delegated more power to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.Ms. Sturgeon’s departure is unlikely to weaken Scotland’s independence drive. It is, after all, the Scottish National Party’s founding goal. But as the party gathers at next month’s conference to plot the next phase of the campaign, her absence could greatly affect their tactics and strategy.The Scottish government had at one point planned to schedule a second referendum next October, following the unsuccessful vote in 2014. But those hopes were dashed last November when Britain’s Supreme Court ruled that Scotland’s Parliament did not have the right to act unilaterally. The court upheld the authority of the British Parliament to consent to a referendum, which it has steadfastly refused to do.That has left the Scottish nationalists with a dilemma. Ms. Sturgeon has proposed that the Scots treat the next British general election, which must be held by January 2025, as a de facto referendum on independence. A clear majority for the Scottish National Party, she said, would effectively be a vote for independence.The problem with this approach, analysts said, is that it would lack legal or constitutional legitimacy. That could hurt Scotland’s quest to join the European Union, which it has said it wants to do after separating from Britain. There are practical questions about how Scotland would break away if Britain did not recognize the move.Other people in the party would prefer to continue to build support for independence in the hopes that the pro-independence majority would become so emphatic that the Parliament in London would have no choice but to go along.Ms. Sturgeon leaving the news conference on Wednesday where she announced she would step down.Pool photo by Jane BarlowSupport for independence has waxed and waned since 2014, when Scots voted against leaving by 55 percent to 45 percent. But the Brexit vote in 2016, which was deeply unpopular in Scotland, has built a durable, if small, majority in favor of independence. Scotland’s handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which many viewed as more sure-footed than England’s, also fired up separatist sentiment.The prospects for independence, analysts said, will depend in part on how the Scottish National Party handles life after Ms. Sturgeon.“The downside risks are obvious,” said John Curtice, a professor of politics at the University of Strathclyde and one of Britain’s leading experts on polling. “That the party will not be able to find someone with the communications skills of Sturgeon,” leaving the nationalists divided and without a plan.Ms. Sturgeon herself emphasized the necessity of having someone fully dedicated to her party’s causes. “Giving absolutely everything of yourself to this job is the only way to do it,” she said, before acknowledging that she was no longer able to do that. “The country deserves nothing less.”Megan Specia More

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      What Jerick McKinnon’s Super Bowl Can Teach Us about Economics

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      From an economic perspective, the most interesting play of Super Bowl LVII was near the end of the game, when the Kansas City Chiefs running back Jerick McKinnon sprinted toward the end zone but slid to a stop inches short of scoring a touchdown, like Moses not entering the Promised Land or me rejecting a slice of chocolate cake.If you watch the replay, you can see Philadelphia Eagles cornerback James Bradberry IV chasing McKinnon but … not very hard, like a dad playing touch football with a 6-year-old. Instead of trying to shove McKinnon out of bounds, Bradberry has his arms by his sides.What makes this economically interesting is that it’s an example of incentive incompatibility, a problem that crops up in many other realms. The Chiefs wanted to run down the clock to keep the Eagles offense off the field as long as possible. The Eagles wanted the Chiefs to score quickly so they could get the ball back, score a touchdown of their own and send the game into overtime. So the ordinary incentives of the offense and defense were reversed. It became a pantomime. Imagine if you had to watch a whole game like that. The fans would be streaming out of the stadium.Incompatibility of incentives is usually caused by a flaw in the rules of the contest, whether it be an election or a bankruptcy proceeding. It’s not always easy to fix the rules to prevent strategic behavior. That Super Bowl play is a good example. What rule change could have induced the Chiefs and Eagles to try their hardest on the play? I can’t think of one.Sports are designed to be zero-sum games, in which one side’s gain is another’s loss. For example, you don’t see boxers trying to work out a win-win agreement before the opening bell. Yet there are many times in sports when the rules inadvertently make it possible for competitors to win by losing or tying. In some leagues, unsuccessful teams have an incentive to lose because the teams with the worst records get first picks in the next player draft. (Although that ignoble strategy doesn’t always work.)British soccer fans are still arguing over a 1977 match between Bristol City and Coventry City in which the two sides found out during the second half that a mutual rival, Sunderland, had lost its match, which meant they could both avoid being relegated to a lower division if they remained tied. What had been a hard-fought match became a silly passing drill. Incentives for such strategic play are surprisingly common in European playoffs, according to several recent papers. A 2022 article in The European Journal of Operational Research showed that the design of the European qualifying rounds for the 2022 FIFA World Cup made the playoffs vulnerable to “tanking” — deliberately losing — by teams in certain circumstances. The paper proposed a way to minimize the risk.This wouldn’t matter much if it were confined to sports. But what about elections? Last year, Democrats helped some far-right candidates in Republican primary contests, betting correctly that more extreme candidates would lose in the general elections. They’re doing the same thing now for a State Senate seat in Wisconsin, The Times reported Tuesday. To me, the Democrats’ gambit seems both unsporting and dangerous. A study of German elections in 2012 found that almost a third of voters abandoned their preferred candidate if that person was not in serious contention.There are voting systems that minimize strategic voting, giving people an incentive to vote for the candidate they really want. But the economist Kenneth Arrow proved in his impossibility theorem that when there are more than two choices, there is no procedure that consistently orders collective preferences and satisfies reasonable assumptions about people’s autonomy and preferences.I’ll close with an example straight from economics: auctions. In an auction in which bids ascend and everyone sees them, it’s possible to lose by winning and win by losing. As the bidding rises and other people drop out, you may start to wonder if they know more than you do about the value of what’s up for auction. If you win an item, maybe it’s because you overpaid — making you a loser. Realizing that risk, some people will drop out early, so the thing being sold might actually go for less than it’s worth, to someone who doesn’t value it as highly as others. A good solution is a second-price, sealed-bid auction. You bid what you think the thing is truly worth, but if you win, you pay only the second-highest bid. Because there’s less risk of winner’s curse, the object will tend to go to the person who values it the most, usually for close to the amount that person values it at.Elsewhere: Why Rising Rates Hurt Tech StocksThe big tech companies don’t do a lot of borrowing, by and large, but rising interest rates are crushing their stock prices nevertheless. That’s because tech stocks’ prices are pumped up by expectations that profits will grow for years to come. They usually pay only small dividends, if any. When interest rates were low, investors were willing to pay a lot for that distant payoff. But when rates rise, Treasury bonds and other safe, long-term, interest-bearing investments start to look like a more attractive alternative.Quote of the Day“The Nazi agitator whom, many years ago, I heard proclaim to a wildly cheering peasants’ meeting: ‘We don’t want lower bread prices, we don’t want higher bread prices, we don’t want unchanged bread prices — we want National-Socialist bread prices,’ came nearer explaining fascism than anybody I have heard since.”— Peter Drucker, “The End of Economic Man: The Origins of Totalitarianism” (1939)Have feedback? Send a note to coy-newsletter@nytimes.com. More

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      Who Could Replace Nicola Sturgeon as Scotland’s First Minister?

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      Just hours after Nicola Sturgeon announced her surprise resignation on Wednesday, discussion had already begun about who might succeed her as the leader of the Scottish National Party and who would head the Scottish government.The party is expected to hold a leadership election in the coming weeks, and Ms. Sturgeon said she would continue to lead the party until that time. While it is still unclear who may stand for the leadership role, and no one has yet to officially throw his or her hat into the ring, a handful of party members have already been suggested.Kate ForbesPool phoot by Fraser BremnerKate Forbes, 32, has often been tipped as a potential successor to Ms. Sturgeon. A former finance secretary, Ms. Forbes is currently on maternity leave after giving birth to her daughter, Naomi, in August.Ms. Forbes is the daughter of missionaries and is originally from the town of Dingwall in the Scottish Highlands, but spent much of her time growing up in Glasgow and India. She is a fluent Gaelic speaker and is a member of the Free Church of Scotland, an evangelical Presbyterian church that follows a strict interpretation of the Bible.She was first elected to the Scottish Parliament in 2016, representing the constituency of Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch since that time. In 2020 she was appointed as the finance minister after her predecessor, Derek Mackay, resigned from the post when it was revealed that he had been sending inappropriate text messages to a teenager.Angus RobertsonRussell Cheyne/ReutersAngus Robertson, the former leader of the Scottish National Party’s group in Westminster, is also seen as a potential candidate to succeed Ms. Sturgeon. After serving in the House of Commons from 2001 to 2017, he became a Member of the Scottish Parliament representing the Edinburgh Central constituency in 2021.Mr. Roberston, 53, is considered one of the most senior members of his party, which he joined in 1984 as a teenager. He now serves as a cabinet secretary for the Constitution, external affairs and culture. He was a journalist before he entered politics and is married with two daughters.John SwinneyRussell Cheyne/ReutersJohn Swinney, Ms. Sturgeon’s deputy, has also been seen as a potential successor. He was appointed as the deputy first minister and cabinet secretary for Covid Recovery in May 2021.Mr. Swinney, 58, was born in Edinburgh and has a master’s degree in politics from Edinburgh University. He is married to Elizabeth Quigley, a television reporter, and has three children.He previously served as the head of the Scottish National Party from 2000 to 2004, but was not first minister because the party did not have the majority of seats in the Scottish Parliament at the time. Shortly after Ms. Sturgeon’s resignation, Mr. Swinney said he was “very sorry Nicola Sturgeon has decided to step down as first minister and as SNP leader.”“She has given outstanding leadership to our country, government and party,” he wrote in a statement on Twitter.Humza YousafRussell Cheyne/ReutersHumza Yousaf, 37, has served in the Scottish Parliament since 2011 and is currently the cabinet secretary for health and social care. When he was first elected, representing the Glasgow region, he was just 26, the youngest minister ever appointed to the Scottish government.He broke another barrier the next year, when he was appointed Scotland’s minister for external affairs and international development, becoming the first person from an ethnic minority background to hold the position. Mr. Yousaf, a practicing Muslim, has long been involved in community work and served as a media spokesman for the international aid group Islamic Relief.His family initiated a legal action against a nursery that he and his wife believed had discriminated against their daughter, allegedly because she had a Muslim-sounding name, but dropped the lawsuit earlier this month. More

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      Before Stepping Down, Nicola Sturgeon Faced a Battle Over Transgender Rights

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      A battle over her support for transgender rights is not, by Nicola Sturgeon’s account, the reason she is quitting as Scotland’s first minister. But the issue has dogged her in recent weeks, precipitating a clash with the British government and ensnaring her in a messy episode involving a convicted rapist who was held in a women’s prison.Ms. Sturgeon’s problems began in December when the Scottish Parliament passed legislation that would allow transgender people to have the gender with which they identify legally recognized and to get a new birth certificate without a medical diagnosis. Britain’s government swiftly rejected the law, saying that it conflicted with equality laws that apply across Britain, including Scotland.That prompted a crisis in Britain’s power-sharing system, known as devolution, with Ms. Sturgeon calling it a “a full-frontal attack on our democratically elected Scottish Parliament and its ability to make its own decisions.”For Ms. Sturgeon, the transgender legislation is part of her declared commitment to protect minority groups. But while the law was supported in Parliament, it has divided the broader Scottish population and become a cudgel in the culture wars.It has also become conflated with the case of Isla Bryson, a transgender woman who was convicted of raping two women before her transition. She was initially placed in a women’s prison while awaiting sentencing, a decision that prompted an outcry by critics who said it jeopardized the safety of other inmates.Ms. Sturgeon later announced that Ms. Bryson had been moved to a men’s prison. But the handling of the case exposed Ms. Sturgeon to sharp criticism and put her in an awkward position when she was quizzed repeatedly at a news conference about whether she regarded Ms. Bryson as a woman.“She regards herself as a woman,” a visibly frustrated Ms. Sturgeon replied. “I regard the individual as a rapist.” More

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      How Does Scotland Fit Into the UK Government?

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      The news that Nicola Sturgeon, the first minister of Scotland, will step down raises a variety of questions about how the United Kingdom — England, Scotland and Wales, along with Northern Ireland — is governed. Here is a quick guide.What role does the king play?The United Kingdom operates under a constitutional monarchy. While there is no single written constitutional document, laws and carefully documented traditions together form a Constitution that binds the monarch, currently King Charles III.These rules have accumulated in centuries of legislation. Together, they make the king a constitutional monarch: an embodiment of power and statehood with no personal public role in politics, and tight constraints even on private influence.Who runs the U.K. government?Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is the current leader of the government of the United Kingdom. He took over as the country’s 57th prime minister in October, after his predecessor, Liz Truss, lasted just six weeks in the post.The role of the prime minister, according to the U.K. government’s official website, is to oversee the operation of the civil service and government agencies. The leader also appoints members of the government and is the principal government figure in the House of Commons.Where does Scotland fit in?Here’s where it gets interesting. Mr. Sunak is responsible for some, but not all, of what happens across the United Kingdom. His government makes decisions for England, but some powers and responsibilities are left to elected officials in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland — a result of what is known as devolution.(Northern Ireland is having its own leadership issues at the moment, after the first minister resigned last year and the government remains in limbo.)In Scotland, the government makes decisions relating to the economy, education, health, justice and other areas. The government enforced its own Covid policies during the pandemic, and it has the power to set its own income-tax rates. Decisions regarding immigration, foreign policy and defense are left to the U.K. government.How are first ministers appointed?Following a Scottish parliamentary election, a first minister is nominated by the Parliament in Edinburgh and is appointed by the monarch.The first minister is responsible for appointing Scottish ministers to create a cabinet and is responsible for setting and carrying out government policy. More

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      ‘Nikki Haley Will Not Be the Next President’: Our Columnists Weigh In

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      With candidates entering the 2024 presidential race, Times columnists and Opinion writers are starting a scorecard assessing their strengths and weaknesses. We rate the candidates on a scale of 1 to 10: 1 means the candidate will probably drop out before any actual caucus or primary voting; 10 means the candidate has a very strong chance of accepting the party’s nomination next summer. We begin with Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and United Nations ambassador in the Trump administration, who announced her bid for the Republican nomination on Tuesday.How seriously should we take Nikki Haley’s candidacy?David Brooks In a normal party, she would have to be taken seriously. She’s politically skilled, has never lost an election, has domestic and foreign policy experience, has been a popular governor, is about as conservative as the median G.O.P. voter and is running on an implicit platform: Let’s end the chaos and be populist but sensible. The question is, is the G.O.P. becoming once again a normal party?Jane Coaston To borrow a phrase, we should take it extremely literally but not seriously. She is indeed running for president. But Nikki Haley will not be the next president of the United States of America.Ross Douthat Much less seriously than the likely front-running candidacies of Donald Trump and Ron DeSantis, and somewhat less seriously than the likely also-ran candidacy of Mike Pence. Which means that barring a scenario where at least two of those three men don’t catch fire, not particularly seriously at all.David French The Republican race is best summed up as two individuals (Trump and DeSantis) and a field. Maybe a third candidate can emerge from the field, and maybe that person can be Haley — a decent reason to take her seriously — but we need to see evidence of independent traction.Michelle Goldberg Not very. I can’t imagine who she thinks her constituency is. A video teasing her candidacy starts with a spiel by the neocon Reagan official Jeane Kirkpatrick. Talk about nailing the zeitgeist!Rosie Gray Haley handled the Trump years more deftly than most. She never allowed herself to be dragged into anything too embarrassing or scandalous and didn’t fall victim to vicious Trump world back-stabbing. But she probably isn’t the kind of candidate who can get through a Republican presidential primary. Shrewd as she has been, she can’t plausibly reinvent herself as a 2023 outrage merchant.Liz Mair She could be the next vice president. That’s the reason to take her seriously.Mike Madrid I don’t see Haley as a serious candidate for the presidency or the vice presidency. She brings nothing demographically or ideologically to the G.O.P. that it doesn’t already have. But it is a serious attempt to maintain her relevance in the Republican hierarchy as a nonwhite woman willing to take a cabinet position or appointment to reassure primary voters that they aren’t actually a bunch of monolithic white people.Daniel McCarthy The interventionist foreign policy that Ambassador Haley has made her signature theme in recent years is unlikely to resonate in an America First party.Bret Stephens Seriously. Last month, Haley gave a speech to an association of auto dealers — the kind of audience any G.O.P. candidate needs to win over. Someone who was in attendance told me she got three thunderous standing ovations. It’s said of Ron DeSantis that the closer you get to him, the less you like him. Haley is the opposite. She still has work to do to win over other core Republican constituencies (above all, evangelicals and Trump sympathizers), but nobody should underestimate her appeal. She looks like a winner to a party that’s desperate to win.What matters most about her as a presidential candidate?Brooks If Trump and DeSantis compete in the Trumpy lane, there will be room for a normie candidate to oppose them. She’s more charismatic than Pence or Mike Pompeo, more conservative than Larry Hogan or Chris Sununu. Her problem is South Carolina. She’ll get no credit for winning that early primary, and it will be devastating to her campaign if she loses.Coaston Haley ought to be an interesting candidate — daughter of immigrants, former governor of a state experiencing big population shifts, a U.N. ambassador — but she seems to have no real basis to run for office. She’s not a populist, and she’s not a culture warrior.Douthat Her possible ability to split off a (small) piece of the non-Trump vote in early primaries, helping him to the nomination if those primaries are extremely close.French She’s a conventional Republican. If no one like her can gain traction, it will be a decisive signal that the Republican base has fundamentally transformed and traditional ideological conservatives are at best an imperfect fit for the G.O.P.Goldberg It will be interesting to see if Trump tries to destroy her right away as a warning to others, or holds off since he’s likely to fare best in a fractured field, with Haley pulling enough votes away from DeSantis to give the nomination to Trump. The more candidates there are, the more likely Trump is to win with a plurality.Gray Not so long ago, the Republican National Committee was predicting continued electoral doom unless the party expanded beyond its mostly white base. So Marco Rubio threw himself into the failed Gang of Eight immigration bill; Paul Ryan went on a listening tour of poor urban communities; and Haley had the Confederate flag removed from the State Capitol grounds. For a time, Trump seemed to upend any hope that these savvy rising stars had of one day reaching the White House. Haley’s candidacy will test that assumption, and that’s why she matters. Did Trump stamp out the ambitions of her generation for good, putting an end to the dream of a friendlier, more moderate Republican Party? Or did he merely put those ambitions on hold?Madrid Over 70 percent of Republican primary voters are white, so her candidacy will test the viability of a nonwhite candidate.Mair She has foreign policy and national security experience, which DeSantis does not. Trump can claim to have that kind of experience, but for many people, all it amounts to is keeping classified documents he shouldn’t have had, coddling up to dictators and autocrats, being softer on China than a lot of Republicans would like and other national security failures. Less substantively, she’s a woman of color, and Republican primary voters would love a chance to show that there are indeed nonwhite people and women who think just like they do (this is something a lot of primary voters are a bit neurotic about, and Haley knows it).McCarthy She’s the running mate they wish John McCain had in 2008, the kind of Republican the party thought it needed to appeal to a less white, more educated and firmly feminist America. But Trump changed the dream of the G.O.P.’s destiny: appealing to the working class, rather than to a wider ethnic profile within the class of educated professionals, is what Republicans voters now expect. Haley is too representative of the party elite’s desires to be seen as a plausible tribune of the working class.Stephens If the subtext of a DeSantis candidacy is that he is Trump shorn of the former president’s personal flaws, the subtext of Haley’s is that she is the Republican Party shorn of the former president. A woman, a minority, an immigrant background, a self-made person: Without having to say a word, she embodies everything Trump’s vision of America isn’t. She also would be less vulnerable to Democratic attack lines about Republican bigotry.What do you find most inspiring — or unsettling — about her vision for America?Brooks Her immigrant story is a good one, her decision to get rid of the Confederate flag showed common decency. On the other hand, there was an awful lot of complicity and silence when she served under Trump.Coaston I would ask … what vision for America? What exactly is Haley offering that is distinctly different from the Generic Republican that Donald Trump (whom she reportedly asked first before deciding to announce her candidacy) became? She is selling the idea that she is somehow both distinct enough to separate herself from the former president she continues to support and similar enough to win the nomination with this Republican Party. I don’t buy it.Douthat She has generally offered herself as the candidate of Reaganite bromides and as a potential vehicle for members of the Republican gentry who wish the Trump era had never happened but don’t particularly want to have any unpleasant fights about it. That’s a vision that’s neither inspiring nor unsettling; it’s just dull and useless and unlikely to take her anywhere.French Haley is right about the most important issues facing the free world. The United States should aggressively support Ukraine, and it should aggressively compete with China and deter Chinese aggression. What’s unsettling about her is that, like many Republicans, she never seemed to figure out quite how to handle Trump and constantly flipped and flopped between confrontation and accommodation. Yet her vacillation may be the key to her potential viability. Her back-and-forth on Trump mirrors the back-and-forth of many rank-and-file Republicans. They could perhaps see themselves in her.Goldberg She’s such a hollow figure that it’s impossible to say what her vision is. “What I’ve heard again and again is that Haley’s raw skills obscure an absence of core beliefs and a lack of tactical thinking,” Tim Alberta wrote in a great profile of her in 2021. She’d most likely pursue a hawkish foreign policy, though, so she could be the candidate of those nostalgic for the George W. Bush administration.Gray Haley might be the last person in American politics still quoting Sheryl Sandberg. “We are leaning in,” Haley told Sean Hannity last month. “It is time for a new generation. It is time for more leadership.” But at 51, she’s part of a political generation that can hardly be considered “new.” Her candidacy feels trapped in the post-Tea Party, mid-Obama administration era when she rose to prominence.Madrid Haley will be the first of many candidates trying to connect with Trump’s populist base while also resurrecting the establishment infrastructure that capitulated to him. If she can explain that she was against him before she was for him and now is against him again in a way that wins over voters and reassures party leaders, it may be inspiring for the sliver of Republicans who still maintain the party can return to the Reagan-Bush days, and unsettling for everyone else.Mair It’s not clear to me what her vision is for America. She has alternated between praising and defending Trump and Trumpism and critiquing him and it.McCarthy What’s unsettling is that her vision is a prepackaged failure. She was a moderately conservative governor and something of a soft libertarian at a time when an aggressive neoconservatism was dominant in the G.O.P. But when she took to the national stage she proved unable to distinguish between the tough realism of Jeane Kirkpatrick and the tough-sounding but inept idealism of the George W. Bush administration. She imbibed Robert Kagan when she should have studied George Kennan.Stephens There are two dueling G.O.P. visions for America: the “Fortress America” vision, of a nation besieged by undesirable immigrants and undermined by undesirable globalists, and a “City on a Hill” vision, of a nation whose powers of attraction are its greatest strength. Haley strikes me as leaning much closer to the second vision, at least within the broader parameters of conservative thinking.Imagine you’re a G.O.P. operative or campaign manager. What’s your elevator pitch for a Haley candidacy?Brooks Every wing of the party would accept her, at least as its second choice, if the top choice falters. It’s not an inspiring strategy, but it has worked for others — not the least of which a certain A. Lincoln.Coaston Remember when Republicans seemed hinged? Nikki Haley remembers.Douthat A charismatic female candidate with a vague platform and banal record is all we need to take a time machine back to the politics of 1988.Goldberg She’s canny, poised and doesn’t come off as crazy, so could be formidable in the general election.French She can beat Joe Biden!Gray Haley has already been out there making her own elevator pitch for her candidacy: “We have lost the last seven out of eight popular votes for president,” she told Sean Hannity last month. “It is time that we get a Republican in there that can lead and that can win a general election.”Madrid Nikki Haley has the establishment experience to beat the establishment.Mair No one should underestimate the appeal of a nonwhite, female conservative candidate to old, conservative, white, die-hard G.O.P. primary voters, and she’s not another white conservative dude.McCarthy Did you ever wish Hillary Clinton was a Republican? Now she is!Stephens If she can win the nomination, she will win the general election.On a scale of 1 to 10, how would you rank Nikki Haley’s potential as a presidential candidate? Share your ranking — and your reasoning for it — in the comments. (1 means she will drop out early; 10 means she has a strong chance of accepting the nomination.)David Brooks, Ross Douthat, David French, Michelle Goldberg and Bret Stephens are Times columnists.Jane Coaston is a Times Opinion writer.Rosie Gray (@RosieGray) has covered the conservative movement for more than a decade as a political reporter for BuzzFeed News and The Atlantic.Mike Madrid is a Republican political consultant and a co-founder of the Lincoln Project.Liz Mair (@LizMair) has served as a campaign strategist for Scott Walker, Roy Blunt, Rand Paul, Carly Fiorina and Rick Perry. She is the founder and president of Mair Strategies.Daniel McCarthy is the editor of “Modern Age: A Conservative Review.”The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Senate Race in California Reflects Fight for Democrats’ Future

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      With Senator Dianne Feinstein’s retirement, the party is gearing up for a clash on issues including gender, race, ideology and even geography.LOS ANGELES — Even before Senator Dianne Feinstein of California announced her retirement on Tuesday, the race taking shape for the seat she has held since November 1992 was poised to become one of the most competitive and expensive in the country. Now, the incumbent’s imminent departure has raised an urgent question for California Democrats: Whose turn is it?Two members of Congress have jumped in, with a third expected to join soon, and the 2024 contest is already revealing ideological, generational, regional and racial divides within the party in America’s most populous — and arguably bluest — state.Representatives Katie Porter and Adam Schiff, two Democrats who amassed national profiles opposing former President Donald J. Trump and his administration officials, have announced campaigns to replace Ms. Feinstein, 89, who said on Tuesday that she would retire at the end of her term. Ms. Porter and Mr. Schiff have spent recent weeks aggressively accruing major endorsements, reporting seven-figure fund-raising hauls and crisscrossing the state to court voters and donors.And Representative Barbara Lee, the highest-ranking Black woman appointed to Democratic leadership, is planning to join the field before the end of Black History Month. No Black women are in the Senate, and there have been only two in the chamber’s more-than-230-year history: Carol Moseley Braun of Illinois, who served one term in the 1990s, and Kamala Harris, who became vice president in 2021.Representative Adam Schiff has already raised millions for the Senate race, and he has a notable endorsement: Nancy Pelosi, the former speaker.Mario Tama/Getty ImagesThe race for Ms. Feinstein’s seat is unlikely to determine control of the Senate — at least five other states will be fiercely contested by the two parties. In deep-blue California, Republicans have become all but irrelevant in the higher echelons of government. But the departure of a defining figure of the state’s politics opens up a seat with outsize influence because of the size of California’s economy and population.The next senator will help oversee a state that has been transformed during Ms. Feinstein’s 30 years in office. Its Latino population has become its largest demographic. Its Democratic Party is trying to redefine itself in the aftermath of the Trump era, and the divide between a wealthier and whiter San Francisco and a poorer and more diverse Los Angeles has only widened.More on CaliforniaA Settlement: San Mateo County has agreed to pay $4.5 million to the family of a Black man who died in 2018 after a deputy used a Taser on him during a struggle that began when officers saw him jaywalking.Covid State of Emergency: The state’s coronavirus emergency declaration, which gave Gov. Gavin Newsom broad powers to slow the spread of the virus, is set to expire on Feb. 28.In the Wake of Tragedy: California is reeling after back-to-back mass shootings in Monterey Park and Half Moon Bay.Medical Misinformation: A federal judge has temporarily blocked enforcement of a new law allowing regulators to punish doctors for spreading false or misleading information about Covid-19.Ms. Porter, Mr. Schiff and Ms. Lee would all usher in an ideological shift, one decidedly to the left of Ms. Feinstein, who in recent years has drawn anger from the left flank of her party over her bipartisan approach and deference to Trump-appointed Supreme Court justices. Ms. Porter and Ms. Lee have served in leadership of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, and though Mr. Schiff has not joined the group, he has increasingly struck progressive tones after once counting himself a member of the Blue Dogs, a group of conservative Democrats. A victory for either Ms. Porter, 49, or Mr. Schiff, 62, would signal a long-awaited break in a generational logjam, as well as a change in regional power.Representative Katie Porter has had both substantial fund-raising and the endorsement of Senator Elizabeth Warren.Brian Snyder/ReutersUntil recently, the Bay Area has dominated the state’s politics, producing some of its most marquee figures, including Ms. Feinstein, Ms. Harris, the former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Gov. Gavin Newsom. Ms. Porter’s district is in Orange County, and Mr. Schiff represents a northern slice of Los Angeles. Given California’s demographic shifts, some Democrats believe the state’s next senator should also capture its growing racial and ethnic diversity.It is not the first time that California has been at a similar inflection point. When Ms. Feinstein first ran, in 1992, women were outraged at the treatment of Anita Hill during the confirmation hearings for Justice Clarence Thomas. Four women won Senate seats that year in a watershed moment for American politics, and California became the first state in the nation to be represented by two female senators.Nearly three decades later, after the 2020 presidential election, women’s groups and Black leaders lobbied Gov. Gavin Newsom of California to choose a Black woman to fill the seat vacated by Kamala Harris, who had been the only Black woman in the upper chamber until she was elected as vice president. Mr. Newsom ultimately named Senator Alex Padilla, the state’s first Latino senator and its secretary of state at the time. But Mr. Newsom pledged to choose a Black woman to fill Ms. Feinstein’s seat should she retire before her term ended. The former Senator Barbara Boxer, who won the 1992 election along with Ms. Feinstein and served in the upper chamber until she chose not to seek re-election in 2016, played up the highly qualified bench of candidates and said they would all have the chance to make their cases. Ms. Boxer was still weighing her endorsement, but she said she believed the moment called for a strong progressive unafraid “to fight some of the forces that have been unleashed by Donald Trump.”“We are in one of those moments in history where we need the toughest leaders and those who are really not fearful,” she said.Even before Ms. Feinstein announced her plans to step away after her term ends in January 2025, California political strategists and observers had begun to debate just who that progressive might be. This month, former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and 14 other members of the California delegation said they would endorse Mr. Schiff if Ms. Feinstein chose to retire.There was not much surprise at Ms. Pelosi’s endorsement of Mr. Schiff, a loyal lieutenant whom she elevated to some of the toughest jobs in Congress. But Ms. Pelosi rarely weighs in on Democrat-on-Democrat races, and the timing was unusual because the election is not until November 2024. Asked why she believed it was important to endorse Mr. Schiff early, Ms. Pelosi said she believed he would make “a fabulous senator.”“And I did what I wanted to do,” she said in a brief interview last week, as she briskly left the House gallery.Ms. Boxer called Ms. Pelosi’s decision “brave” and “very typical Nancy.” “She is straightforward with people,” Ms. Boxer said.But the move drew criticism, too. Aimee Allison, the founder and president of She the People, a political group that supports progressive women of color in politics, called the decision “cynical” because it curtailed the path to victory for a Black candidate with a stellar party track record. She was referring to Ms. Lee, who has been known for progressive stances, and who was the sole lawmaker in Congress to vote against invading Afghanistan after the Sept. 11 attacks.Women of color and Black women in particular face barriers to fund-raising and support from the Democratic establishment, Ms. Allison said. “They have hashtags to thank us,” she said of Democrats. “But Black, Latina, Asian American women — AAPI women — Native American women, we want to be represented.”Representative Barbara Lee is expected to join the Senate race soon. She will be at a fund-raising disadvantage at the outset.Sarahbeth Maney for The New York TimesIn interviews last week, some Democratic voters were split on how much they would factor issues of race and gender into their decisions, with some arguing that the state’s leadership was already diverse and others contending that its highest ranks were not diverse enough. Others pointed to the profanity-laced audio recordings of Latino City Council members mocking people in racist terms as evidence that even representation based on identity was no guarantee of an inclusive perspective.Mr. Schiff and Ms. Porter, for their part, acknowledged the importance of issues of race and gender in the Senate race, though they said how much they factored into the result would ultimately be up to voters. The two also have also sought to draw sharp contrasts between their candidacies.On a chilly, overcast Saturday, Mr. Schiff, a former prosecutor who led Mr. Trump’s first impeachment trial, billed himself as a staunch defender of democracy and a progressive leader committed to creating jobs and tackling climate and gun safety issues. In Congress, he said, he had dedicated himself to becoming an expert on national security issues, exposing torture and working to overhaul the nation’s surveillance system.“I took on these fights because they mattered, because they made Americans’ lives better, our system more just, our kids’ future more secure,” he said before some 600 supporters at the union hall parking lot in Burbank, where he launched his first run for Congress more than two decades ago. “And then I took on the biggest fight of my life against Donald J. Trump.”At a parks and recreation center in Huntington Park, where Ms. Porter met with Latino environmental justice activists and community leaders on Friday, the congresswoman described herself as a political newcomer and a single mother who had never taken corporate PAC money and who would be willing to challenge both parties on issues like child care and paid family leave.Ms. Porter, who studied under Elizabeth Warren at Harvard, garnered national prominence as she grilled corporate executives and government officials in congressional hearings, often turning to a handy whiteboard to explain complex topics. She pointed to her victories in a competitive swing district as evidence that she could win without compromising her progressive values.“I have had three really hard races and have won every one of them,” she said in an interview.Karina Macias, a Huntington Park council member who had taken a walk through the neighborhood with Ms. Porter that morning, said she had not made an endorsement in the race.“Obviously, diversity is important, being a Latina woman myself,” she said. “For me, it is that, but also who is coming to talk to these cities that have been screaming for years to get some attention from Congress to make sure that we get that discussion on our issues.” More

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      Nigerian Election 2023: What to Know

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      The presidential election this month in Africa’s most populous country is completely unpredictable. An unexpected third candidate with a huge youth following may upend decades of traditional politics.Nigerians go to the polls next week to choose a new president — one of the most important elections happening anywhere in the world this year. Nigeria is Africa’s most populous country, with about 220 million people, and what happens there reverberates across the continent and the globe.The Giant of Africa, as Nigeria is known, is at an inflection point. Nearly eight years of rule by an ailing president, Muhammadu Buhari — a military dictator turned reformed democrat — has seen the country lurch from one economic shock to the next. Over 60 percent of the people live in poverty, while security crises — including kidnapping, terrorism, militancy in oil-rich areas and clashes between herdsmen and farmers — have multiplied. Young, middle-class Nigerians are leaving the country in droves.Many Nigerians see the 2023 election as a chance to change course, and are planning to break with the two traditional parties to vote for a third candidate. Not since the rebirth of Nigeria’s democracy in 1999 has the country faced an election as nail-biting — and as wide open — as this one.When is the election?The vote is scheduled for Feb. 25, unless it is postponed, as it was in 2019, just five hours before polls were to open. The head of the Independent National Electoral Commission, or I.N.E.C., has warned that if the myriad security challenges Nigeria is facing are “not monitored and dealt with decisively,” elections could be postponed or canceled in many wards, causing a constitutional crisis.Who are the main candidates?There is Bola Ahmed Tinubu, 70, who as the candidate of the governing All Progressives Congress has serious political machinery behind him. A canny, multimillionaire former governor of Lagos, Nigeria’s biggest city, Mr. Tinubu is a Muslim from the southwest and boasts that he brought Mr. Buhari to power. His catchphrase, “Emi lo kan” — Yoruba for “It’s my turn” — speaks to his record as a kingmaker in Nigerian politics, but alienates many young voters.Officials of the Independent National Electoral Commission sort voter cards at a ward in Lagos, Nigeria, last month ahead of the presidential election in February.Pius Utomi Ekpei/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe former vice president and multimillionaire businessman Atiku Abubakar is the candidate of the Peoples Democratic Party, or P.D.P. Mr. Abubakar, 76, has run for the presidency five times since 1993, and this year could be his last shot. A Muslim from the north, he hopes to pick up far more votes there than he has in the past, now that he does not have to run against his old nemesis, Mr. Buhari, who had an ardent northern following.The surprise candidate is Peter Obi, 61. Hailed as a savior by a large chunk of Nigeria’s digitally savvy youth, Mr. Obi — a Christian and former governor from the southeast who has hitched his wagon to the lesser-known Labour Party — has thrown this election open. His fans — mostly young, southern Nigerians walloped by economic hardship, joblessness and insecurity — call themselves the Obidients.These are the three leading contenders among the 18 candidates in all. However, a fourth candidate worth mentioning is Rabiu Kwankwaso, 66. While unlikely to win the election, Mr. Kwankwaso, also a Muslim, could profoundly affect the result by splitting the vote in parts of Nigeria’s north, including the major state of Kano, where he has a huge base.Why does this election matter?Nearly 90 percent of Nigerians believe the country is going in the wrong direction, according to a recent survey by Afrobarometer — by far the worst perception it has ever recorded in Nigeria. For many, this election seems like a last-ditch chance to rescue their country.People waited at a bus stop with heavy traffic in Lagos last month. A recent survey found that nearly 90 percent of Nigerians believe the country is going in the wrong direction.Akintunde Akinleye/EPA, via ShutterstockA nation bursting with entrepreneurs and creative talent, Nigeria is held back by rampant insecurity, widespread unemployment, persistent corruption and a stagnating economy, which together mean that simply surviving can be a major struggle.What is different about this ballot?Recent changes in the voting system — using biometric data to ensure voters’ identities and sending results electronically rather than manually — were put in place to prevent the tampering and vote rigging that have undermined previous elections.There is no incumbent on the ballot, and for the first time in decades, there are major candidates from each of Nigeria’s three main ethnic groups: Yoruba, Igbo and Hausa-Fulani.All the usual, if unofficial, rules of Nigerian elections have been blown apart:1: It’s a battle between the two established parties. Mr. Obi broke this one when he lost the P.D.P. ticket to Mr. Abubakar but insisted on running anyway, and joined another party.2: The presidency is supposed to alternate between the north and the south, and so parties should field candidates accordingly. Mr. Buhari is a northerner, so Mr. Abubakar was expected to let a southerner helm his party. But he did not, and he may pay the price by losing the P.D.P.’s traditional southern strongholds.3: There should be a Muslim and a Christian on the ticket. Mr. Tinubu, a Muslim, bulldozed through this rule by picking a Muslim from the northeast as his running mate. That could cost him dearly in the south, too.Religious identity is a factor in Nigerian elections. Muslims celebrated the holiday of Eid al-Adha in Abuja, last year.Afolabi Sotunde/ReutersWhat does a candidate need to win?An absolute majority plus 25 percent of the vote in two-thirds of the nation’s 36 states are essential for victory. If no candidate achieves this, the election will go to a runoff — which has never happened since democracy returned but which analysts now say is a distinct possibility.Turnout is usually extremely low — around 35 percent of registered voters voted in the last election, because of insecurity, logistical problems and apathy. But this year, according to I.N.E.C., more than 12 million new voters have registered, most of them young people. The election result may hinge on whether those new voters turn out or not.Results are expected two or three days after the election.What does polling show (or not show)?Several recent polls put Mr. Obi ahead of his rivals — some by a wide margin. But what many of these surveys have in common is that a large proportion of people polled refuse to say who they are voting for or say they are undecided.One poll by the data and intelligence company Stears tried to solve this problem by making an informed guess about which way the “silent voters” would cast their ballots based on their profiles and how they responded to other questions.Stears found that if there is a high turnout on election day, Mr. Obi would most likely win by a large margin. But if, as in 2019, few people show up at the polls, Mr. Tinubu would be by far the more likely winner.Above the Ibadan expressway in Lagos, a campaign poster shows presidential candidate Bola Ahmed Tinubu and his running mate Kashim Shettima, of the governing All Progressives Congress party.Pius Utomi Ekpei/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images More