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      Butler County, Where Trump’s Rally Was Held, Is a Republican Stronghold

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      The city of Butler, a blue-collar town that was built on steel, has been trying to get a foothold economically in recent years after struggling to reinvent itself following a loss of industry in recent decades.Home to about 13,000 people, the city is perched on the banks of Connoquenessing Creek, about a 50-minute drive northeast of Pittsburgh. It retains a relatively high poverty rate compared with the nation and the rest of Pennsylvania.But the county that the city sits within has been changing over time, becoming both more educated and more prosperous.Broader Butler County’s population of nearly 200,000 remains about 95 percent white, according to the Census Bureau, but the nonwhite share of the population has been slowly growing. The county has been becoming more heavily educated — about 38 percent of adults there now have a bachelor’s degree, slightly higher than the 34 percent average nationally.The county’s unemployment rate is well below the national level: just 2.8 percent. And per capita earnings in Butler County surpassed the state average in 2007, after being below it ever since records had begun to be kept.In fact, professional and business services are now the county’ largest employer. The southern part of the county is accessible to Pittsburgh, which makes it popular among commuters into the city, and it has seen new housing developments and businesses spring up in recent years.But even as it changes, Butler county retains large swaths of rural farmland and wooded forests. Gun ownership in that corner of Western Pennsylvania is pervasive, and hunting is such a major pastime there that local schools long took off the first day of deer season.The area skews heavily Republican, and Trump signs dot local roadsides. Voter registration data from the local Bureau of Elections shows that just under 40,000 Democrats are registered in the country, and nearly 80,000 Republicans. About 20,000 voters are registered as members of neither party.True to those trends, Trump voters outnumbered Biden voters nearly two to one in the 2020 election. More

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      What Republicans Have Been Up to While Biden’s Drama Has Unfolded

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      While Biden has been in the spotlight, Republicans rewrote their platform and used dark rhetoric.The self-generated political crisis that has convulsed the Democratic Party over the past two weeks has felt, to Republicans, like a lovely day on the fairway.“Republicans are standing on the sidelines with polite golf claps,” said David Urban, a political strategist and past campaign aide to former President Donald Trump, “going, ‘Wow, incredible, well done.’”They watched President Biden melt down on the debate stage. They watched his party agonize over his unsteady recovery. And, crucially, they managed to stay largely out of it (even when Trump was surreptitiously filmed weighing in from an actual golf course).“I can’t remember a time when there’s been a week that’s gone by, two weeks, when the former president hasn’t been dominating the news cycle,” Urban said.It has not, however, been an uneventful period for the G.O.P. Since the debate, two Trump allies — Steve Bannon and Rudy Giuliani, have been imprisoned and disbarred, respectively. House Republicans failed to pass what should have been an easy spending bill (though they did manage to pass two bills blocking efficiency standards for kitchen appliances). The party approved a platform that has angered some conservatives and found itself on defense over Trump allies’ sweeping agenda.So, with just days to go before the Republican National Convention begins in Milwaukee, on Monday, let’s take a look at a few story lines you might have missed if you’ve been glued to the Biden saga. I’ll be back next week — from Milwaukee.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Messages From Biden That Are Understood, and Not

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      A president who long delighted in public speech is now sometimes hard to understand. Does it matter?President Biden’s failure to speak clearly in the unscripted setting of a presidential debate late last month plunged his party — and his re-election campaign — into crisis.He’s hoping an unscripted appearance at the NATO summit in Washington tomorrow will help him turn things around.The political drama over the past two weeks has turned in part on Biden’s fundamental struggle, in a moment that really counted, to send a message that could be widely understood. His effort to clean up the mess with an interview late last week created new questions about his communication skills, some of which were as absurd as the matter of whether he said “goodest” or “good as” when neither option really made sense.It all underscores the fact that a president who for decades has delighted in the power — and the abundance — of his own speech has become, in certain moments, just plain hard to understand. Does it matter that the public can find itself turning up the volume or parsing the sometimes-corrected transcript to figure out what he meant?“He’s become someone who, unless he’s giving a major speech, you have to lean forward to hear what he’s saying and sometimes you have to think twice to understand what he’s saying,” said David Kusnet, a former speechwriter for President Clinton who has observed Biden’s speeches for decades.In scripted appearances or when he can rely on notes, the president typically has an easier time making a strong point — such as the unequivocal assurance he has made this week that he has no plans to bow out of the presidential race. His first solo news conference since the debate, scheduled for tomorrow evening, will amount to a critical opportunity for him to show his party that he can still be understood when speaking off the cuff.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Election Results in Europe Suggest Another Reason Biden Has to Go

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      There’s a dollop of good news for Democrats from the British and French elections, but it’s bad news for President Biden.The basic lesson is that liberals can win elections but perhaps not as incumbents. The election results abroad strike me as one more reason for Biden to perform the ultimate act of statesmanship and withdraw from the presidential race.The U.K. elections on July 4 resulted in a landslide for the Labour Party, ending the Conservative Party’s 14 years in power. Keir Starmer, the new Labour prime minister, achieved this result in part by moving to the center and even criticizing the Conservatives for being too lax on immigration. He projected quiet competence, promising in his first speech as Britain’s leader to end “the era of noisy performance.”But mostly, British voters supported Labour simply because they’re sick of Conservatives mucking up the government. The two main reasons voters backed Labour, according to one poll, were “to get the Tories out” and “the country needs a change.” A mere 5 percent said they backed Labour candidates because they “agree with their policies.”British voters were unhappy with Conservatives for some of the same reasons many Americans are unhappy with Biden. Prices are too high. Inequality is too great. Immigration seems unchecked. Officeholders are perceived as out of touch and beholden to elites. This sourness toward incumbents is seen throughout the industrialized world, from Canada to the Netherlands and Japan.Frustration with incumbents was also a theme in the French election, where President Emmanuel Macron made a bet similar to the one that Biden is making — that voters would come to their senses and support him over his rivals. Macron basically lost that bet, although the final result wasn’t as catastrophic as it might have been.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Lo que pasó en Francia es asombroso

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      La extrema derecha estaba a las puertas del poder.En la primera vuelta de las votaciones del 30 de junio, la Agrupación Nacional de Marine Le Pen quedó primera con un 33 por ciento de apoyo, ganando más de la mitad de las elecciones locales. Con la previsión de que el partido se quedara a las puertas de la mayoría absoluta, Francia se sumió en un frenesí de especulación y ansiedad. El principal candidato de la Agrupación Nacional, Jordan Bardella, de 28 años, insistió en que solo aceptaría ser primer ministro si contaba con el apoyo del Parlamento. Según los sondeos, parecía bien situado para exigir un mandato.Pero la segunda vuelta del domingo demostró que estaba equivocado. Bardella no solo quedó muy lejos de la oficina del primer ministro, sino que su partido quedó tercero, con 143 escaños. Aunque el número de escaños aumentó respecto al anterior, que era 89, está muy lejos de las predicciones de hace unos días. La coalición del presidente Emmanuel Macron, que se había quedado rezagada durante toda la corta campaña, desbarató las expectativas al quedar segunda, con 168 puestos. La mayor sorpresa fue quién quedó primero. El Nuevo Frente Popular, de izquierda, una coalición de cuatro partidos formada apresuradamente antes de estas elecciones, se erigió en la mayor fuerza, con 182 escaños.Es un resultado realmente asombroso. Mediante un impresionante acto de responsabilidad colectiva, se ha frenado a la extrema derecha. Pero Francia no se ha arreglado de repente. Como ningún grupo ha obtenido más de un tercio de los 577 escaños de la Asamblea Nacional, se avecinan problemas. La extrema derecha, aunque escarmentada, se encuentra en una posición más fuerte que nunca, al mando de una coalición electoral creciente y decentemente situada para las elecciones presidenciales de 2027. Pero Francia, gracias a la colaboración pragmática entre partidos y a la resistencia entusiasta de los votantes, ha obtenido una brillante prórroga.La cooperación entre los adversarios de la Agrupación Nacional fue fundamental para el cambio. Tras la primera vuelta, más de 200 candidatos del Nuevo Frente Popular y de la coalición de Macron se retiraron, lo que permitió a otros candidatos presentarse sin problemas. En lo que la líder de Los Verdes, Marine Tondelier, llamó un “nuevo frente republicano”, haciendo un guiño a la tradición de los votantes franceses de unirse para frustrar a la extrema derecha, se pidió a los votantes que apoyaran a quien pudiera derrotar al candidato de la Agrupación Nacional.Los electores, sobre todo los simpatizantes de la izquierda, respondieron al llamado. Según un sondeo, en los duelos en los que los aliados de Macron o los conservadores se enfrentaron a la Agrupación Nacional, siete de cada diez votantes de izquierda se decantaron por el candidato anti-Le Pen, y la mayoría de los demás se abstuvieron. El frente no tuvo tan buen desempeño en los duelos entre la izquierda y el partido de Le Pen: aproximadamente la mitad de los partidarios de Macron apoyaron a la izquierda, y uno de cada seis votó por la extrema derecha. El resultado, sin embargo, fue contundente. Escaño tras escaño, la fuerte posición de la extrema derecha no fue suficiente para superar a sus oponentes combinados.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Los venezolanos en el exterior enfrentan dificultades para poder votar

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      El gobierno venezolano ha impuesto una serie de normas estrictas que hacen que inscribirse para votar sea complicado para millones de venezolanos que viven en el exterior.[Estamos en WhatsApp. Empieza a seguirnos ahora]La fila afuera del consulado de Venezuela en Madrid llegaba hasta el final de la cuadra. Mujeres embarazadas, familias con niños pequeños, personas mayores y con discapacidades llegaron incluso a las 4:00 a. m. —cinco horas antes de que la oficina abriera sus puertas— para intentar inscribirse para votar en las muy esperadas elecciones presidenciales de Venezuela.Adriana Rodríguez, de 47 años, que salió de Venezuela en 2018, llegó a las 8:00 a. m., dos días seguidos. En ambas oportunidades, esperó durante horas antes de llegar al principio de la fila, solo para terminar siendo rechazada, contó, siempre con la misma explicación: “Ya no se podía inscribir más gente”.Con el presidente autoritario de Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro, detrás en las encuestas por gran margen en vísperas de las elecciones del 28 de julio, el gobierno ha impuesto una serie de normas estrictas que hacen que inscribirse para votar sea casi imposible para millones de venezolanos que viven en el exterior, incluido Estados Unidos, España y otros países de América Latina.Muchos abandonaron su país natal debido a las duras condiciones económicas y políticas.Como resultado, expertos electorales afirman que las tácticas del gobierno equivalen a un fraude electoral generalizado, dado que hasta un 25 por ciento de los votantes elegibles de Venezuela viven fuera del país, y una gran cantidad de ellos muy probablemente no votaría por Maduro.Adriana Rodríguez, de 47 años, quien se fue de Venezuela en 2018, fue al consulado en Madrid dos días seguidos pero no pudo inscribirse para votar.Emilio Parra Doiztua para The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Elecciones en Francia: 5 puntos clave de los resultados

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      Fue una jornada de sorpresas en el país europeo, con un inesperado triunfo de la izquierda, una extrema derecha muy por debajo de los pronósticos y la incógnita de quién será el próximo primer ministro.[Estamos en WhatsApp. Empieza a seguirnos ahora]De manera inesperada, los partidos de izquierda franceses se impusieron en las elecciones legislativas celebradas el domingo en todo el país, con lo que el partido nacionalista y antiinmigración Agrupación Nacional no obtuvo la mayoría en la cámara baja del Parlamento.Ningún partido, sin embargo, parecía con posibilidades de conseguir la mayoría absoluta, lo que deja a uno de los países más grandes de Europa encaminado a un marasmo político o a la inestabilidad.Los resultados, recopilados por The New York Times a partir de datos del Ministerio del Interior, confirman las proyecciones anteriores, según las cuales ningún partido o bloque obtendría la mayoría.Aquí presentamos cinco conclusiones de las elecciones.Gran sorpresa número 1Se produjeron dos grandes sorpresas en las elecciones anticipadas al Parlamento francés, ninguna de ellas prevista por expertos, encuestadoras o analistas.La mayor fue el triunfo de la izquierda: su coalición obtuvo 178 escaños y se convirtió en el principal bloque político del país. Fue la victoria más sorprendente de la izquierda francesa desde que François Mitterrand la sacó de la marginalidad de la posguerra, y ganó la presidencia como socialista en 1981.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      French 2024 Parliamentary Election Results in Maps and Charts

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      No party secured an absolute majority in legislative elections on Sunday, leaving France headed for gridlock or political instability.Support for left-wing parties surged unexpectedly in nationwide legislative elections on Sunday, pushing the nationalist, anti-immigration National Rally into third place.The electoral map showed enduring divisions — with Paris and its suburbs voting for the left and center, and the regions in the far north and south along the Mediterranean voting for the far right.The country’s political outlook appeared more muddled than before, with three large political blocs, each with a vastly different vision and plan for the country. More