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      Why Imran Khan Can’t Outplay Pakistan’s Military

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      Imran Khan is a cornered tiger.After surviving an assassination attempt on Nov. 3 while leading a protest march, Mr. Khan accused Shehbaz Sharif, who succeeded him as prime minister of Pakistan, Rana Sanaullah, the interior minister, and a third man of conspiring to assassinate him. In a significant breach in civil-military relations, Mr. Khan claimed that the third man was a major general in the Inter-Services Intelligence, the dreaded spy agency of Pakistan’s military, which supported his own rise to power.The saga of Mr. Khan’s embrace of the military and his fallout and confrontation with the generals is a reminder of the limits of power exercised by civilian politicians in Pakistan, where the military has ruled directly for 33 years and always been the power behind the throne.Mr. Khan took office as prime minister in August 2018 and was deposed by a no-confidence vote in Parliament in April of this year. Rakishly handsome, utterly vain and stubborn at 70, Mr. Khan hasn’t reconciled with his loss of power.For several months now he has been discrediting the democratic process, blaming his ouster on an American-led foreign conspiracy and attacking Mr. Sharif’s government as an “imported government” full of “thieves.” He commenced on Oct. 28 an energetic roadshow across Pakistan demanding immediate national elections, which aren’t due for a year.Mr. Khan’s own legend, the story of the cricket captain of steely determination who won his greatest sporting victory — the 1992 Cricket World Cup — with a team almost everybody wrote off, plays a big role in how he persists in politics. He had asked his team to play like a “cornered tiger,” and they ferociously fought their way to victory.In politics, Mr. Khan’s legend and grit weren’t enough. He founded the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (Movement for Justice), or the P.T.I., in 1996 and spent a decade and a half charging quixotically at electoral windmills, barely managing to win a single seat in Pakistan’s 342-member National Assembly.Many Pakistani analysts believe the military saw that Mr. Khan’s rise would be beneficial in reducing the dominance of the two major political parties, which revolved in and out of power: former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto’s Pakistan People’s Party (inherited by her widower and her son after her death) and the former prime minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz).By the early 2010s, Mr. Khan aligned with Pakistan’s military and welcomed power brokers from older political parties into his. He reinvented himself into a populist rallying against corruption and misrule, promising a New Pakistan — a welfare state inspired by the early days of Islam. And he raged against American drone war in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Province, earlier known as the North-West Frontier Province, and the tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.He emerged as a political force after the general elections of 2013. His party won the third largest number of seats, but Nawaz Sharif got the largest number of votes and formed the government. Three years later, in 2016, Nawaz Sharif — the older brother of the current prime minister — fell out with the military over national security policy and the military began to undermine him.Since shortly after the birth of Pakistan in 1947, the generals have ensured the removal of intransigent politicians attempting to challenge the military either with a coup or with facilitating the election of obedient, chosen ones.Mr. Khan played his role by ferociously accusing the older Mr. Sharif and his family of corruption and seeking his removal — not through elections but through judicial investigations and prosecution. After Mr. Sharif’s dismissal on corruption charges in 2017, a pliable judiciary disqualified him from holding public office and imprisoned him for hiding assets and not being “honest” despite no convincing evidence that he abused his office for personal gain.In the 2018 elections, Mr. Khan’s party was seen as the military’s favorite. Independent press was gagged, and there were allegations of rigging and “copious evidence” that Pakistan’s military interfered to help Mr. Khan win. In his first three years in office, Mr. Khan spoke gleefully about being on the “same page” with the Pakistan Army chief, General Qamar Javed Bajwa, and helped him with a second three-year term as the army chief.Mr. Khan’s tenure was defined by a disregard for civil liberties and independent press, the hounding of his opponents and ignoring procedures of parliamentary democracy. He failed to improve the economy, inflation rose and the International Monetary Fund halted funding after his government refused to stick to its commitments.His foreign policy didn’t fare any better. Pakistan’s most important relations, with the United States, Saudi Arabia and China, remained icy during his tenure. President Biden didn’t even make a customary phone call to Mr. Khan after the start of his term. Projects in the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor remained more or less stalled.In February 2019, Mr. Khan welcomed the Saudi crown prince Mohammed bin Salman on his first visit outside the Middle East after the murder of Jamal Khashoggi. In September 2019, Mr. Khan announced plans to team up with Malaysia and Turkey — Prince Mohammed’s nemesis after the Khashoggi murder — to set up a television network to counter Islamophobia and hold a summit of leaders of Muslim countries in Malaysia in December. The plans soured the relationship with Saudi Arabia, a major financial backer, forcing Mr. Khan to pull out.Apart from his failures of governance, in October 2021, Mr. Khan committed the cardinal sin of interfering in the military’s personnel decisions. He sought to prevent the appointment of a new chief for the I.S.I., as Mr. Khan reportedly favored the continuation of the incumbent spy chief, Lt. Gen. Faiz Hameed.The military establishment zealously guards its prerogative to promote and post officers at every level. General Bajwa replaced General Hameed with a new spy chief. Mr. Khan, who as prime minister appointed the spy chief in consultation with the army chief, showed his displeasure by taking three long weeks before notifying the appointment.Pakistani press was gripped with feverish speculation that Mr. Khan wanted to appoint General Hameed as the army chief after General Bajwa’s upcoming retirement in late November 2022. Mr. Khan denied the rumors, but the damage was done. Mr. Khan and the army chief were not on the same page anymore. In March, in the lead-up to the vote of no confidence, a spokesman for General Bajwa publicly declared that the army has “nothing to do with politics.”Pakistan got the message: Mr. Khan might still be prime minister, but he was not under the protective canopy of the army and the intelligence services anymore. The coalition of opposition parties moved to oust him and Mr. Khan lost crucial allies and legislators of his own party. A vote of no confidence was moved in the national assembly.In April, Mr. Khan tried to avoid the confidence vote — which decides the fate of a government — by dissolving the national assembly, but the Supreme Court declared his actions unconstitutional and ordered the vote be held. Mr. Khan didn’t have a majority in parliament and was ousted.Mr. Sharif, the leader of the opposition coalition, took over as prime minister and moved briskly to repair long fractured ties with the military. And in a first, after Mr. Khan’s ouster, his supporters — urban youth and sections of the middle class — who have traditionally been strong supporters of Pakistan’s military, clashed with the police, vandalized property and tried to forcibly enter a military cantonment area.Mr. Khan has resumed his cry for immediate elections with the halo of a martyr. But he is quickly conceding that the military will always dominate Pakistan’s politics and told the newspaper The Dawn that “using their constructive power can get this country out of institutional collapse.”He has also dialed back his allegations of an American conspiracy behind his ouster, waking up to the importance the military attaches to its relationship with Washington. The new tack suggests that he is happy with military interference in politics as long as it is on his behalf.On Thursday Prime Minister Sharif appointed Lt. Gen Syed Asim Munir as the new army chief, who will take over after Gen. Bajwa retires on Tuesday. General Munir had clashed with Mr. Khan during his tenure as the I.S.I. chief in 2019.Yet Mr. Khan’s populist messaging is gaining wider traction. Pakistan’s economy is faltering. Inflation is higher than 25 percent. Recent floods have affected more than 30 million people, and caused damage and economic losses of around $30 billion. Pakistan needs stability and improved governance, but Mr. Khan’s ambitions are bound to increase political turmoil.Abbas Nasir is a columnist and former editor of the newspaper The Dawn in Pakistan.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Anwar Ibrahim Is Prime Minister of Malaysia, After a Wait of Decades

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      Anwar Ibrahim, whose career has also included a stint as deputy prime minister and two jail terms, said he had the alliances to command a “convincing majority” in Parliament.After days of political chaos, Malaysia has a new prime minister, its fifth in less than five years.The country is now relying on a veteran politician to bring back political stability while leading a polarized electorate — split between one faction that sees itself as modern and multicultural, and another that is driven by a conservative Muslim base — into the post-pandemic world.This is the task ahead for Anwar Ibrahim, 75, whom the king appointed prime minister on Thursday. It was the culmination of a stunning comeback for Mr. Anwar, whose career has included a stint as deputy prime minister, two jail terms that were considered politically motivated, and, finally, the role of longtime opposition leader.When Mr. Anwar arrived to a news conference late on Thursday night, his supporters chanted, “Reformasi,” or “Reform,” echoing his battle cry after he was ousted from government more than two decades ago.Mr. Anwar made light of his long, winding journey to power, telling reporters that his grandson had asked him how long he had to wait for his oath-taking ceremony.“I said: ‘Not too long, only 24 years,’” Mr. Anwar said, smiling.His appointment ended, at least for now, a crisis that has engulfed Malaysia for almost a week: Saturday’s national elections, the first since 2018, led to Malaysia’s first ever hung Parliament, with none of the three main competing groups winning a majority of the 222 seats.Mr. Anwar told reporters that he now had a “convincing majority” with his multiethnic coalition, Pakatan Harapan (Alliance of Hope), Barisan Nasional — the incumbent coalition that includes Mr. Anwar’s former party, the United Malays National Organization — and the Sarawak Parties Alliance.Former Prime Minister Muhyiddin Yassin, the head of Perikatan Nasional (National Alliance), said that he would not accept Mr. Anwar’s appointment, arguing that he himself had 115 votes in Parliament. Mr. Anwar said it was “not necessary” for Mr. Muhiyiddin to dispute his appointment but added that he was still open to talks.“It is a challenge because no one in Malaysian history has come in with this divided a mandate, in this context,” said Bridget Welsh, an honorary research associate with the University of Nottingham Asia Research Institute Malaysia.Muhyiddin Yassin, the leader of Perikatan Nasional, campaigning earlier this month.Hasnoor Hussain/ReutersMr. Anwar’s group had led Saturday’s election with 82 seats. In second place was Perikatan, whose success came largely because of one coalition member, the Malaysian Islamic Party, a conservative party that has called for theocratic Islamic rule in Malaysia. PAS, as the party is known, won 49 seats on its own.Barisan Nasional was far behind, with 30. The election was seen as a final rebuke to UMNO, which has long been enmeshed in corruption allegations. Mr. Anwar had actively campaigned on the public’s desire for change from UMNO, vowing that he “will not bring with him the corrupt and greedy cultures which we had before.”The final decision came down to the king, Sultan Abdullah Sultan Ahmad Shah. Malaysia is a parliamentary democracy with a constitutional monarchy, and the king has the prerogative to name the prime minister in the event of an inconclusive election.For five days, the coalitions had been locked in various closed-door negotiations, and the king and the rulers of the Malay states met on Thursday to resolve the crisis.“The fact is, people cannot be burdened by endless political turmoil when what the country needs is a stable government that is able to stimulate the economic landscape and development of the country,” the palace said in a statement.Mr. Anwar’s supporters in Kuala Lumpur on Tuesday. Mr. Anwar’s coalition, Pakatan Harapan, led last Saturday’s election but fell short of a parliamentary majority.Fazry Ismail/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Anwar, who was sworn in Thursday evening, rose to political prominence when he was part of the Malay nationalist UMNO, which has prioritized the indigenous Malay population over the country’s minorities. But after a falling out with the party, Mr. Anwar has called for equal treatment of its minorities, mainly ethnic Chinese and Indian.“Being a minority here, I feel like this is the one sliver of hope that we have left,” said Mahaysyhaa Shriedhaa A/P Gopal, a Malaysian of Indian descent, after she voted for Pakatan Harapan. “Reform is the most immediate hope for now.”Urbane and charismatic, Mr. Anwar speaks often about the importance of democracy and quotes from Gandhi as well as the Quran.“The thing about Anwar is that he is a man of many faces,” said Tunku Mohar bin Tunku Mohd Mokhtar, an assistant professor of politics at the International Islamic University Malaysia. “He is viewed as liberal but at the same time, he is also considered to be religious. But his brand of Islam is much more progressive and accommodative, so he is more popular among the urban Malays compared to the rural ones.”For years, Mr. Anwar was the heir apparent for Mahathir Mohamad, the long time leader of UMNO and Malaysia’s longest serving prime minister. But in the late 1990s, the relationship between Mr. Anwar and Mr. Mahathir deteriorated after Mr. Anwar criticized what he saw as a culture of cronyism within UMNO. Later, both men differed over the handling of the Asian financial crisis, with Mr. Anwar favoring a free-market approach and no bailouts, while Mr. Mahathir blamed the financier George Soros for the currency crisis.Mr. Anwar addressing supporters at a rally in Kuala Lumpur in 1998, after he was fired from the cabinet, and before being sentenced to prison.Fiona Hanson/PA Images, via Getty ImagesIn 1998, Mr. Anwar was fired from the Cabinet. He started a protest movement called Reformasi (Reform) that called for the end of corruption and greater social justice. That year, he was charged with sodomy. Many Malaysians were stunned when he turned up with a black eye in court after he was roughed up by a police chief. Later, he was sentenced to nine years in prison. Amnesty International called Mr. Anwar a prisoner of conscience, detained “for holding different opinions to the prime minister,” Mr. Mahathir.After his release from prison, Mr. Anwar taught abroad before returning home to run for office again. He won a by-election, trouncing UMNO, and was again arrested that year over sodomy charges, which he denies. In 2014, Mr. Anwar was sentenced to five years in jail, a conviction that was widely seen by human rights groups as politically motivated.But miraculously, Mr. Anwar was back in the orbit of the prime minister’s job in a few years. He had made up with Mr. Mahathir, his former mentor, who had come out of retirement to join the opposition. They successfully ousted the incumbent UMNO government, which was led by Najib Razak, but had another falling out over succession plans.Now, Mr. Anwar is finally in the seat he has long sought.“Many Malaysians are invested in his struggles and his family’s struggles,” said Rabi’ah binti Aminudin, an assistant professor in political science at the International Islamic University Malaysia. “They finally see it like a dream come true.”A polling station in Kuala Lumpur earlier this month. As prime minister, Mr. Anwar would have to unite a polarized country.Annice Lyn/Getty ImagesBut Mr. Anwar also will have to contend with a more religiously conservative bloc of the electorate, which sees him as too liberal.Take, for instance, PAS, the Islamic party that won the largest number of seats in Parliament. The party’s leader, Abdul Hadi Awang, wants the secular Constitution to be interpreted from an “Islamic context.” He has called for the implementation of harsh Islamic laws called “hudud” that allow for punishments including amputation, caning, and stoning to death.Mr. Anwar took pains to remind the public that he would continue to uphold constitutional guarantees regarding the Malay language, Islam and the special rights of the “sons of the soil,” referring to the Malays and indigenous people.But he added that no Malaysian, regardless of race or religion, “should be left to feel that they are ignored in any way.” “None should be marginalized under my administration,” Mr. Anwar said.Liani MK More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: Bombs Kill a Teenager in Jerusalem

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      Plus: Blackouts in Ukraine, Japan’s soccer triumph and an A.I. Thanksgiving menu.Aryeh Schupak, a 15-year-old yeshiva student, was killed in the bombings.Mahmoud Illean/Associated PressBombs explode in JerusalemTwo blasts in Jerusalem yesterday killed a 15-year-old and wounded at least 18 other people. They were the first bomb attacks on Israeli civilians since 2016.The bombs, which detonated at bus stops during the morning rush hour, prompted calls by far-right leaders for the swift formation of a new government that would be tougher on terrorism. Benjamin Netanyahu, who is likely to become the prime minister again, is trying to form Israel’s most right-wing government ever.The blasts were just the latest episode in the deadliest wave of violence to sweep Israel and the occupied West Bank since 2015.Overnight, a Palestinian teenager died during a West Bank firefight between Israeli soldiers and Palestinian militants. This week, the body of an abducted Israeli teenager was being held. He was taken by Palestinian gunmen from a West Bank intensive care unit; his family insisted that he was alive at the time of the kidnapping and later died. And last week, a Palestinian killed three Israelis at a settlement.Comparison: The bombs were smaller and less sophisticated than those used in attacks that killed hundreds of Israelis during a Palestinian uprising two decades ago. But experts said they departed from recent “lone wolf” episodes.Context: This wave of violence began when Arab assailants killed 19 people in five attacks this spring. The Israeli Army then intensified its raids on West Bank militants, which have left more than 100 Palestinians dead and prompted another surge of Palestinian militancy.West Bank: Rising violence by settlers against Palestinians, coupled with Israeli efforts to evict more than 1,000 Palestinians from their homes, has also compounded Palestinian anger.Ukraine said that Russia launched about 70 cruise missiles. Brendan Hoffman for The New York TimesPower outages blanket UkraineMuch of Ukraine is without electricity after a new wave of Russian strikes targeted critical infrastructure. At least 10 people were killed, including a newborn who died after a Russian rocket hit a maternity ward in the south.The barrage of Russian missiles appeared to be one of the most damaging attacks in weeks, and left Kyiv and other cities without power. Power was also cut in Moldova, whose Soviet-era electricity system is entwined with Ukraine’s system. Three Ukrainian nuclear power plants were forced to shut down, the authorities said.The State of the WarDnipro River: A volunteer Ukrainian special forces team has been conducting secret raids under the cover of darkness traveling across the strategic waterway, which has become the dividing line of the southern front.Evacuation Plans: The Ukrainian government is preparing to help evacuate residents from the southern cities of Kherson and Mykolaiv, where shattered infrastructure has raised fears of a humanitarian crisis when winter sets in.A Race to Rebuild: Ukrainian attempts to stabilize some of the country’s battered electricity supply and make a dent in the seemingly endless task of demining swaths of the country offered a glimpse into the Herculean effort that lies ahead off the battlefield.Visual Investigation: Videos circulating on social media have ignited a debate over whether Ukrainian forces committed war crimes or acted in self-defense as they tried to capture a group of Russian soldiers who were then killed. Here’s what we know.What’s next: Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s president, said the grid was suffering “colossal” damage. He announced a national drive to prepare thousands of makeshift centers to provide basic services in the event of prolonged blackouts, called “Points of Invincibility.”A hazy day in Delhi this month.Money Sharma/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesDelhi’s stubbornly toxic airA decade ago, the capitals of Asia’s two largest countries had some of the dirtiest skies in the world.Beijing pressed ahead with a $100 billion effort to clean its air after China’s government declared war against pollution. Now, the city has 100 more days of clear skies each year.But New Delhi still faces acrid, toxic air, as pollution from millions of vehicles and open fires used for heating and cooking fill the skies. This fall, the haze prompted officials to halt truck traffic, close schools and push for remote work.Context: India — a huge, messy democracy — has lacked both political resolve and public pressure, and is less wealthy than China. Indian politicians use the crisis to attack each other instead of trying to find solutions.Voters: Air pollution has been known to kill more Indians than any other risk factor. But voters ranked air quality as their 17th most urgent concern in a 2019 survey, well behind jobs, health care and infrastructure.THE LATEST NEWSU.S. NewsThere was another mass shooting: A Walmart manager killed six people at a store in Virginia yesterday. The gunman was also found dead.In updates from the mass shooting in Colorado, lawyers for the person accused of killing five people at an L.G.B.T.Q. club said their client identifies as nonbinary.Officials said they anticipated a reduced Covid threat in the coming winter months, but urged people to get updated booster shots.The World CupJapan’s goalkeeper, Shuichi Gonda, makes a save.Petr Josek/Associated PressJapan beat Germany, 2-1, in another defeat of a top team. Before the game, Germany’s players protested FIFA’s decision to stop players from wearing rainbow-colored armbands.Spain defeated Costa Rica, 7-0. Croatia tied with Morocco, 0-0.As we send out this newsletter, Belgium is leading Canada in the second half: 1-0. Here are updates.It’s $200 a night to stay in what is essentially a shipping container.“We got here six beers ago.” After Qatar banned the sale of beer in stadiums, British fans found a solution.Around the WorldAn ambulance drives into a police station in Iran.Iran is using ambulances to infiltrate demonstrations and detain protesters.Rescue workers in Indonesia are still searching for survivors of the earthquake on Monday. The death toll rose to 271.Thieves stole nearly 500 ancient gold coins, which could be worth $1.7 million, from a German museum.Science TimesA farm sanctuary is investigating the inner lives of cows, pigs and chickens — but only if the animals volunteer to be studied.Diagnoses of anxiety disorders are rising among children. Some young patients are trying exposure therapy, which makes them face the situations that cause them distress.Comets, which normally fly in from the far reaches of space, appear to be misplaced in the asteroid belt. Why?A Morning ReadLaundrymen take photos for the poster.Rishi ChandnaOur colleagues on the Opinion desk publish short documentaries. I loved this 20-minute video on the way laundrymen in Mumbai, India, use posters, more commonly deployed by political candidates, to advertise their businesses.The film, by Rishi Chandna, is a wry exploration of the ways religion, politics and science intersect in a ubiquitous poster culture. “No matter how much of a big shot you are, or how much clout you wield, without a poster, you don’t exist,” one man said.Lives lived: Hebe de Bonafini became a human rights campaigner when her two sons were arrested and disappeared under Argentina’s military dictatorship. She died at 93.HOLIDAY SPOTLIGHT“Show me a Thanksgiving menu made for me,” Priya Krishna told the A.I.Timothy O’Connell for The New York TimesHappy Thanksgiving from … A.I.?Artificial intelligence can create art, play “Jeopardy!” and make scientific breakthroughs. But how good is it in the kitchen? Priya Krishna, a Times food reporter, gave an A.I. system the ultimate challenge: a Thanksgiving menu.Priya used a neural network called GPT-3. She fed it information about her family background, her favorite ingredients and flavors that she likes.It was … interesting. GPT-3 produced recipes both plausible and intriguing: pumpkin spice chaat, naan stuffing and roasted turkey with a soy-ginger glaze. But the turkey was dry and flavorless (the recipe called for one garlic clove, no butter or oil). And the naan stuffing, Priya writes, “tasted like a chana masala and a fruitcake that had gotten into a bar fight.”“This technology is not a replacement for people, at least so far,” Priya writes. “It can nudge cooks in one direction or another. But it is still humanity — with its intuition, storytelling and warmth — that drives a good recipe.”For more: In a video, Priya cooks the recipes and asks Times cooking columnists to judge.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookMelina Hammer for The New York TimesCelebrating Thanksgiving? Here are recipes for turkey, gravy, stuffing, green beans and a pumpkin pie, all of which you can make the day you plan to eat them.What to ReadBrowse our annual list of 100 notable books.What to WatchIn “Leonor Will Never Die,” a comatose genre director in the Philippines becomes trapped in one of her own screenplays.HealthIs it safe to whiten your teeth? And which methods work?EmojisAs tech workers get laid off, they’re saluting in solidarity.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: In good spirits (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. The Athletic plans to double its coverage of women’s sports through a partnership with Google.“The Daily” is about cooking the perfect turkey. And “Still Processing” discusses Beyoncé’s latest album.Email us at briefing@nytimes.com. I read every note. More

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      Your Turkey Day Politics Quiz Is Here

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      Now we’ll look forward to the new year, and inspiration from people like Republican Kevin McCarthy, the very-probably-soon-to-be House speaker.You may remember that after the Jan. 6 assault on the Capitol by Trump supporters, McCarthy told his colleagues, “We cannot just sweep this under the rug.” Then when a special House committee was convened to investigate it, McCarthy … More

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      ¿México será la próxima Venezuela?

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      En 2018, escribí una columna en la que describía al futuro presidente de México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, o AMLO, como una versión de izquierda de Donald Trump. Los lectores no estaban convencidos. La comparación entre los dos hombres, escribió una persona en los comentarios, “es absurda”. Otro dijo que la columna era “asombrosamente ignorante”.Permítanme retractarme. AMLO no es solo otra versión de Trump. Es peor, porque es un demagogo y un operador burocrático más eficaz.Eso volvió a quedar claro cuando los mexicanos salieron a las calles el 13 de noviembre en marchas contra los esfuerzos de AMLO para desmantelar el Instituto Nacional Electoral (INE). Durante tres décadas, el organismo independiente, pero financiado por el Estado (que antes se llamaba Instituto Federal Electoral) ha sido crucial para la transición de México de un gobierno de partido único a una democracia competitiva en la que los partidos en el poder pierden elecciones y aceptan los resultados.Entonces, ¿por qué el presidente, que ganó la elección de manera abrumadora y mantiene un alto índice de aprobación —en parte por un estilo político que se sustenta en el culto a la personalidad y por programas de transferencias de efectivo a los pobres, su principal base electoral—, iría tras la joya de la corona de los organismos civiles del país? ¿No se supone que López Obrador debe representar a las fuerzas de la democracia popular?La respuesta de AMLO es que solo busca democratizar al INE al hacer que sus integrantes sean elegidos por voto popular después de que instancias bajo su dominio nominen a los candidatos. También reduciría el financiamiento del instituto, le quitaría el poder de elaborar padrones de votantes y eliminaría las autoridades electorales estatales. De manera trumpiana, AMLO llamó a sus críticos “racistas”, “clasistas” y “muy hipócritas”.La realidad es distinta. AMLO es producto del viejo partido gobernante, el Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI), que dominó casi todos los aspectos de la vida política mexicana desde finales de la década de 1920 hasta finales de la década de 1990. Ideológicamente, el partido estaba dividido en dos alas: los tecnócratas modernizadores contra los nacionalistas estatistas. Sin embargo, el partido estaba unido en su preferencia por la represión, la corrupción y, sobre todo, el control presidencial como medio para perpetuar su permanencia en el poder.AMLO puede haber pertenecido al ala estatista, pero sus ideas sobre la gobernabilidad salen directamente del manual del viejo PRI, solo que esta vez a favor de su propio partido, Morena. “Constantemente, su impulso ha sido recrear la década de 1970: una presidencia poderosa y sin contrapesos”, me escribió el lunes Luis Rubio, uno de los analistas más importantes de México. “Por lo tanto, ha intentado debilitar, eliminar o neutralizar toda una red de entidades que se crearon para ser controles del poder presidencial”. Eso incluye la Corte Suprema de Justicia de la Nación, las agencias reguladoras del país y la comisión de derechos humanos de México. El INE y el banco central se encuentran entre las pocas entidades que se han mantenido relativamente libres de su control.¿Qué significaría que AMLO se saliera con la suya? Su mandato presidencial de seis años termina en 2024 y es poco probable que permanezca formalmente en el cargo. Pero hay una antigua tradición mexicana de gobernar tras bambalinas. Llenar el INE con personas cercanas es el primer paso para regresar a los días de votos manipulados que caracterizaron al México en el que crecí, en las décadas de 1970 y 1980.Pero también implica un deterioro más profundo, de tres maneras importantes.La primera es el papel cada vez mayor de las fuerzas armadas durante el sexenio de AMLO. “El ejército ahora está operando fuera del control civil, en abierto desafío a la Constitución mexicana, que establece que el ejército no puede estar a cargo de la seguridad pública”, escribió la analista política mexicana Denise Dresser en la edición vigente de Foreign Affairs. “A partir de órdenes presidenciales, los militares se han vuelto omnipresentes: construyen aeropuertos, administran los puertos del país, controlan las aduanas, distribuyen dinero a los pobres, implementan programas sociales y detienen a inmigrantes”.La segunda es que el gobierno mexicano a todas luces se ha rendido ante los cárteles de la droga que, según una estimación, controlan hasta un tercio del país. Eso se hizo evidente hace dos años, después de que el gobierno de Trump regresara a México a un exsecretario de Defensa, el general Salvador Cienfuegos, quien había sido arrestado en California y acusado de trabajar para los cárteles. AMLO liberó al general con rapidez. Ocho de las ciudades más peligrosas del mundo ahora están en México, según un análisis de Bloomberg Opinion, y 45.000 mexicanos huyeron de sus hogares por temor a la violencia en 2021.Y, por último, el nuevo estatismo de AMLO funciona incluso peor que el anterior. Un intento de reforma del sistema de salud de México ha provocado una escasez catastrófica de medicamentos. Ha invertido bastante en la empresa petrolera del Estado, PEMEX, que se las ha arreglado para perder dinero a pesar de los precios históricamente altos de la materia prima. El gasto en bienestar aumentó un 20 por ciento respecto al gobierno de su antecesor, pero su gobierno eliminó uno de los programas de combate a la pobreza más exitosos de México, que vinculaba la asistencia a mantener a los niños en la escuela.Los defensores de AMLO pueden argumentar que el presidente sigue siendo popular entre la mayoría de los mexicanos debido a su preocupación por los más pobres. A menudo, ese ha sido el caso de los populistas, desde Recep Tayyip Erdogan en Turquía hasta los gobiernos de Kirchner en Argentina. Pero la realidad tiene una forma de pasar factura. Lo que los mexicanos enfrentan cada vez más con AMLO es un ataque a su bienestar económico, seguridad personal y libertad política y al Estado de derecho. Si los mexicanos no tienen cuidado, este será su camino a Venezuela.Bret Stephens ha sido columnista de Opinión en el Times desde abril de 2017. Ganó un Premio Pulitzer por sus comentarios en The Wall Street Journal en 2013 y previamente fue editor jefe de The Jerusalem Post. Facebook More

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      Marijuana Majority

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      Americans support marijuana legalization, but many of their political leaders do not.A decade ago, no American lived in a state where marijuana was legal to smoke, vape or eat recreationally. Today, nearly half of Americans do or will soon: Voters approved legalization ballot measures this month in Maryland and Missouri, bringing the number of states allowing any adult use to 21.Legalization may not make major news often anymore, but it’s a big deal. It amounts to America’s largest change to its drug policy in decades. By aligning marijuana with alcohol and tobacco, rather than harder drugs, the policy change is giving birth to a new industry. And, over time, it could reduce the hundreds of thousands of marijuana arrests made in the U.S. every year, freeing up police resources.The change came about largely because of the support of voters, not politicians or lawmakers. While the public backs legalization, some prominent political leaders do not: President Biden has said he’s opposed. Donald Trump has characterized legalization as an issue for states to decide, but his 2020 presidential campaign said marijuana should remain illegal.Voter supportA key reason for marijuana legalization’s success: It’s popular. About 68 percent of adults in the U.S. support legalization, a Gallup survey found last week. Even a majority of Republicans, who are typically more conservative on the issue, have told Gallup that they support legalization.Around two decades ago, public opinion was essentially the reverse: About 64 percent of U.S. adults said marijuana should not be legal.The shift toward support empowered legalization campaigns around the U.S. The 21 states that have legalized it have done so only since 2012, starting with Colorado and Washington. Three of those states reliably vote Republican: Alaska, Montana and Missouri.Why have voters come around to legalization? Advocates credit several issues. Much of the public now sees the broader war on drugs as a costly failure — and marijuana, widely viewed as less dangerous than alcohol, is an accessible target for policy changes. States’ experiments with medical marijuana, starting in the 1990s, helped make Americans more comfortable with loosening access. And the internet has made it easier for a grass-roots legalization movement to spread.Political oppositionSome leading lawmakers have not followed the shift in public opinion. Biden has said he opposes jailing marijuana users and pardoned thousands of people convicted of marijuana possession under federal law. But he also opposes legalization, putting him at odds with more than 80 percent of self-identified Democrats.Lawmakers’ opposition has led activists to rely largely on voter support to enact legalization. Of the 21 states where recreational marijuana is or will soon be legal, 14 approved the change through ballot measures.But there are limits to the ballot process. Not every state allows such initiatives. And the drug remains illegal at the federal level, stopping most big banks from working with marijuana businesses and raising the businesses’ tax bills.Even in states where voters approve legalization, marijuana may remain illegal. South Dakotans voted to legalize marijuana in 2020, but Gov. Kristi Noem, a Republican, took the measure to court and won. This month, South Dakotan voters rejected another legalization initiative.Some of the political resistance is easing. Congress passed its first stand-alone marijuana reform bill last week, which will allow for more research into medical uses if Biden signs it into law, as expected. Several state legislatures, including Vermont’s and Virginia’s, have legalized marijuana for recreational purposes. Some prominent Democrats, like Senator Bernie Sanders and the Senate majority leader, Chuck Schumer, have voiced support for legalization.The shift is coming slowly, but perhaps typically: Whether they are considering action on prescription drugs or same-sex marriage, lawmakers often move well after voter support for an issue has solidified.For moreUnlicensed weed shops have exploded in popularity in New York City since the state legalized recreational marijuana last year.The state approved its first licenses for recreational marijuana retailers this week.THE LATEST NEWSMass ShootingsAn attacker opened fire at a Walmart in Chesapeake, Va., leaving at least six people dead. The shooter was also found dead at the store, the police said.Colorado Springs is questioning its progress on gay rights after the deadly shooting at an L.G.B.T.Q. nightclub there last weekend.PoliticsThe Supreme Court cleared the way for House Democrats to obtain Donald Trump’s tax returns.The Biden administration extended its pause on federal student loan payments.Senator Lindsey Graham testified in a Georgia investigation into 2020 election interference by Trump, after fighting to avoid answering questions.Kevin McCarthy, the Republican leader campaigning to become House speaker, visited the southwestern border and demanded the Homeland Security secretary resign.The VirusDr. Anthony Fauci at what was likely his last White House briefing.Michael A. McCoy for The New York TimesU.S. officials say they see a reduced Covid threat this winter, but urged people to get updated booster shots.Chinese officials have ordered businesses and schools in Beijing to close and locked down much of a major northern city as cases rise.Other Big StoriesTwo blasts during rush hour in Jerusalem killed one person and wounded at least 18 others. They were believed to be the first bomb attacks on Israeli civilians in years.After retaking the city of Kherson, Ukraine’s forces are trying to push Russian troops out of a strategic strip of land in the Black Sea. Follow updates.“Bregret”: Facing a grave economic slump, some British people are rethinking Brexit.OpinionsElon Musk might long for a bygone era of bro-boss workplaces, but most workers have moved on, Jessica Bennett writes.From Al Gore’s 2000 concession speech to Liz Cheney at the first Jan. 6 hearing, Thomas Friedman offers Thanksgiving readings to celebrate American democracy.The “momfluencer” industry has heightened already unrealistic expectations for American mothers, Jessica Grose says.MORNING READSDijon at the decks at Moogfest 2018.Jeremy M. Lange for The New York TimesUp from underground: The dance D.J. Honey Dijon is now everywhere.Mind farm: Researchers are investigating the inner lives of cows, pigs and chickens.Family treasures: A colander. A wooden Snoopy. Times readers shared their heirlooms.Advice from Wirecutter: Save money on heat and hot water.Lives Lived: Hebe de Bonafini helped build the protest movement the Mothers of Plaza de Mayo after her sons disappeared under Argentina’s military dictatorship. She died at 93.SPORTS NEWS FROM THE ATHLETICRankings: L.S.U. moved up to No. 5 in this week’s College Football Playoff rankings, surprisingly one spot ahead of U.S.C. Preview: Here’s what to watch for in the N.F.L.’s Thanksgiving tripleheader.WORLD CUPPlayers for Saudi Arabia celebrate after a goal.Julian Finney/Getty ImagesShock victory: Saudi Arabia beat the heavily favored Argentina, 2-1, one of the biggest upsets in World Cup history. (These were some of the others.)A closer look: The loss invited scrutiny of a deal that the Argentine great Lionel Messi has signed to promote Saudi Arabia.“We got here six beers ago”: After Qatar banned the sale of beer in and around stadiums, British fans found a solution.Elsewhere in soccer: Cristiano Ronaldo will immediately leave his English Premier League team, Manchester United.Today’s matchups: Germany plays Japan this morning, and Canada faces Belgium this afternoon. Follow all of today’s matches.ARTS AND IDEAS Rozalina Burkova for The New York TimesThe year in booksLooking for a good holiday read? The Times Book Review has published its annual 100 Notable Books, a survey of the best books of the year in fiction, nonfiction and poetry.“I’m still pretty new to the Book Review,” Gilbert Cruz, who took over as editor this year, told us. “But I’ve been reading it forever, and this is possibly the most vibrant and wide-ranging Notables list that we’ve ever had — historical fiction, mysteries, thrillers, horror, translated literature, an exceptional crop of short-story collections, a fantastic graphic memoir. It really feels like there’s something for almost anyone.”Browse the full list.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookChristopher Testani for The New York Times. Food Stylist:Simon Andrews. Prop Stylist: Christina Lane.This cheesecake can customize however you want.One Day to ThanksgivingForgetting the salad is a common Thanksgiving faux pas. Here are three recipes that will balance out the richer dishes.Where to GoThe remote Andaman Islands offers Indian culture and spectacular beaches.Late NightThe hosts joked about Trump’s tax returns.Now Time to PlayThe pangrams from yesterday’s Spelling Bee were blanked and kneadable. Here is today’s puzzle.Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Colorado ski resort (five letters).And here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — GermanP.S. Diplomats from China accused “one or two superpowers” of “aggression” at a U.N. Security Council meeting 51 years ago today.Here’s today’s front page. “The Daily” is about cooking the perfect turkey.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      in Elections

      South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa Wins a Crucial A.N.C. Battle

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      President Cyril Ramaphosa emerged well-placed to win a second term as the head of the country’s governing party, although there is much haggling and horse-trading to come.JOHANNESBURG — President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa, whose presidency has been upended by claims that he tried to cover up the theft of a huge sum of cash at his farm, emerged well-placed to win a second term as leader of the governing African National Congress, and president of the country, after nominations by his party’s rank and file were released on Tuesday.The A.N.C. revealed that 3,543 branches across the country had submitted nominations for leadership positions that will be contested during a national party conference that begins on Dec. 16 in Johannesburg.At the gathering, held every five years, members choose the A.N.C.’s top officials, including their president, who typically serves as the country’s president. National elections are set for 2024, and the A.N.C. has won an outright majority of votes in every national contest since South Africa’s first democratic elections in 1994.Mr. Ramaphosa won nominations from 2,037 branches, more than double that of his closest challenger, Zweli Mkhize, who served as health minister under the president. But analysts cautioned not to make too much of the results because the contest could change drastically by the time the conference begins.Delegates, who vote by secret ballot, are under no obligation to stick with the nominations of their branches. A lot of horse-trading and haggling over votes occur between the time that nominations are released and when delegates step to the ballot box, analysts said.Dr. Mkhize said in an interview after the nominations were announced that he was still confident he would prevail next month. He said he had heard from supporters throughout the country who planned to vote for him at conference but said they did not nominate him in their branches because they feared repercussions from the party’s current leadership.“We expected this pattern,” he said. “That’s why it’s important for us to look forward to a secret ballot. Our sense at the moment is that we’ve still got very good support.”Among the names nominated for the governing party’s leadership, known as the “top six,” were several of Mr. Ramaphosa’s allies, a reflection of his political strength and the continued role of factional politics and bitter infighting, analysts said.The nominations also show a party that is falling short of its own so-called renewal agenda, said Hlengiwe Ndlovu, a senior lecturer at the University of the Witwatersrand. Only two women have been nominated for a leadership position, and they will be competing for the same spot. Younger leaders also struggled to gain traction.“How do you renew without centering women and the youth?” Dr. Ndlovu said.Jacob Zuma, the former president who has tried to re-enter the political scene after serving a 15-month sentence for failing to cooperate with a corruption inquiry, did not secure enough nominations to run for the national chairman of the A.N.C. He is still in legal jeopardy. Nkosazana Dlamini-Zuma, who was vying to become the party’s first female president, also did not get enough nominations to automatically qualify for the ballot.Members can still enter the contest if they get nominations from 25 percent of delegates at the conference.The nominations are an early positive sign for Mr. Ramaphosa, who has been under intense scrutiny since a former intelligence chief and political rival filed a police complaint claiming that in February 2020, $4 million to $8 million in U.S. currency stashed in furniture had been stolen from Mr. Ramaphosa’s game farm, Phala Phala Wildlife.The former spy chief, Arthur Fraser, laid out scandalous accusations, including that Mr. Ramaphosa had never reported the theft to the police, instead relying on an off-the-books investigation by the head of the presidential protection unit to look into the theft.The president’s opponents within his own party have called on him to step down, accusing him of trying to cover up the theft to shield himself from accusations of money laundering and tax fraud associated with having that much foreign currency hidden at his farm.A panel appointed by Parliament is scheduled to reach a decision by the end of this month on whether Mr. Ramaphosa should face an impeachment inquiry. Since transitioning to a democracy, South Africa has never had a president face impeachment. The national prosecutor’s office and the public protector, an anticorruption watchdog, have also begun their own investigations.Mr. Ramaphosa, who has denied any wrongdoing, has argued that the investigative process must play out.During a recent meeting of A.N.C. executives, he offered a few more details about the theft. He said that about $500,000 in proceeds from the sale of game had been stolen and he named the businessman who he said was the buyer, according to South African news articles.The president’s statement did little to quell the venom he faced, local news outlets reported, saying that a leaked draft of a report by the A.N.C.’s integrity commission suggested that the scandal had brought disrepute to the party.The tense leadership battle within the A.N.C., Africa’s oldest liberation movement — and the scrutiny Mr. Ramaphosa faces over the theft — comes as the party faces a crossroads. Much of the country has become fed up with the constant drumbeat of corruption accusations against party officials. Entrenched poverty and poor delivery of services like electricity and water have caused daily hardships for many. This has all led the party’s electoral support to plummet.During last year’s local government elections, the A.N.C. failed to garner at least 50 percent of the national vote for the first time since the country’s transition from apartheid to democratic rule. Many analysts predict that the party will fall short of 50 percent during the next national elections, meaning that it will have to form a coalition with other parties to remain in power.The leadership that emerges out of next month’s A.N.C. conference “will be quite critical as a turning point of the demise of the A.N.C.,” said Mmamoloko Kubayi, a member of the party’s executive committee and a supporter of Mr. Ramaphosa. “Society will see whether the A.N.C. is serious about turning around, whether the A.N.C. is serious about showing that it has listened.”For much of his four years in power Mr. Ramaphosa had appeared to be coasting toward winning a second term. But the scandal, called Farmgate by news outlets, may threaten that.He came to power as A.N.C. leader in 2017 as an anticorruption crusader, later replacing Mr. Zuma, whose nine years in office were marred by numerous accusations that he had allowed people close to him to enrich themselves by robbing state coffers.In the wake of Mr. Zuma’s tenure, Mr. Ramaphosa championed a contentious A.N.C. rule that required party officials to be suspended from their positions if they were criminally charged in a court of law.Now, Mr. Ramaphosa could find himself facing that same rule.Lynsey Chutel More