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      Your Thursday Briefing: China’s Snarled Covid Data

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      Plus France just beat Morocco to advance to the World Cup finals.“The statistics are meaningless,” an expert said.Aly Song/ReutersChina’s ‘meaningless’ Covid dataDespite repeated assurances that the country’s rollback of restrictions is under control, China has no clear picture of its Covid-19 infections.Even the most basic question of how many people are infected is hard to answer: China has relaxed mass testing requirements and made reporting at-home test results voluntary. Yesterday, the government said it would stop reporting asymptomatic infections, which made up most of the positive test results in the past.The country’s official data around Covid may be hazy, but there’s strong anecdotal evidence of a surging number of cases. Hospitals, too, are crowded.The lack of reliable information could have major economic implications. Foreign businesses and investors don’t know how long it will take for China’s economy to recover. And shoppers are still hesitant to re-enter stores and restaurants after years of enforced lockdowns.From Opinion: Abandoning “zero Covid” is a chance for President Xi Jinping to pivot from the perils of one-man rule, Minxin Pei argues.Other China news: Beijing will withdraw six diplomats from the U.K. following a British police inquiry into a violent clash at a demonstration at the Chinese Consulate in Manchester.Morocco supporters celebrated in Paris when the team beat Portugal to reach the semifinals.Christophe Petit Tesson/EPA, via ShutterstockFrance beats Morocco, 2-0France beat Morocco just minutes before we sent out this newsletter. The team will play Argentina on Sunday in the World Cup final.The first half of the game ended with France in the lead, 1-0. Morocco held firm, avoiding a complete disaster. Its magical run has elated fans: It was the first Arab or African team to reach the semifinals. France surged in the second half, when it scored another goal.Understand the Situation in ChinaBeijing’s restrictive “zero Covid” policy pummeled China’s economy and set off mass protests that were a rare challenge to the Communist leadership.A Messy Pivot: The Communist Party cast aside many Covid rules after the protests, while playing down the threat of the virus. The move could prove dangerous.In Beijing: As a wave of Covid sweeps across the Chinese capital, Beijing looks like a city in the throes of a lockdown — this time, self-imposed by residents.Importance of Vaccines: As the government drops its restrictions, it not only needs to convince people that the virus is nothing to fear, but also that inoculations are essential.Fearing a Grim Future: Even as China eases its Covid rules, the outlook for many young people remains gloomy, with few job prospects and high unemployment rates.The match was always about more than sports. France ran a protectorate in Morocco from 1912 to 1956, when Morocco gained independence. Many Moroccans in France still face racism and other forms of discrimination, and diplomatic ties remain complex.Now, despite its loss, Morocco has become the champion of the world’s colonized against the world’s colonizers­. Details: Morocco’s team had the most nonnative-born players in the World Cup. Fourteen grew up in Europe yet chose to play for Morocco. Some said they made the choice because of the bigotry they had faced in Europe.From Opinion:Before Morocco’s loss, Issandr El Amrani said he hadn’t seen such optimism in the Arab world since the 2011 uprisings.France’s team, full of players with roots in the former colonies, offers hope for the country’s future, Laurent Dubois writes.Fiji’s vote count is expected to take two days.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFiji’s closely watched electionFijians voted in a general election yesterday. The outcome could have major regional implications: The island nation has recently taken on outsize importance in the battle for Pacific influence between the U.S. and China.Under Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama, the prime minister, Fiji has grown closer to China. His challenger, Sitiveni Rabuka, recently indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji that is also trying to strengthen its influence in the Pacific.The contest could become volatile. Both men have been involved in coups: Bainimarama led Fiji’s last one, in 2006; Rabuka its first, in 1987. It remains unclear if Bainimarama would honor the results, were he to lose. Experts said that he could seek the help of Fiji’s military, which is constitutionally permitted to intervene if it sees fit.Analysis: Turnout was low. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” an expert said.In other Pacific news: Australia signed a new security deal with Vanuatu, The Associated Press reports.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificNew Zealand enacted a lifetime prohibition on cigarette sales to everyone born after 2008.Jason Oxenham/Getty ImagesNew Zealand’s new laws are aimed at eliminating most smoking by 2025, following more than a decade of public health campaigns.The Australian police are investigating the potential influence of far-right extremism in a Queensland shooting, The Sydney Morning Herald reports.The U.S. created a space force unit in South Korea, The Associated Press reports. It is likely to be used to monitor the North.The Group of 7 countries will give Vietnam $15.5 billion to help it shift toward renewable energy, Asia Financial reports.The War in UkraineMarco Hernandez and Josh Holder/The New York Times; Planet LabsRussia is building a vast network of trenches and traps in an effort to slow Ukraine’s advance.The U.S. is poised to send Ukraine the Patriot, its most advanced ground-based air defense system.Paul Whelan, an American detained in Russia, has no clear path to release.Around the WorldPeru said it would declare a state of emergency. Violent protests are raging days after its president was ousted.Iran was ousted from the U.N. Women’s Rights Agency as protests continue.President Biden vowed to expand the U.S.’s involvement in Africa yesterday in a speech to nearly 50 heads of state.Floods killed at least 141 people in the Democratic Republic of Congo.Other Big StoriesElon Musk stopped paying rent on Twitter’s offices and disbanded a trust and safety council to cut costs.Biden signed a bipartisan bill protecting same-sex marriages in the U.S.A U.S. prosecutor described Sam Bankman-Fried’s dealings at FTX as “one of the biggest financial frauds in American history.” DealBook explains.Brain implants have begun to restore bodily functions. But significant advances are probably decades away.OpinionsIsrael is about to have an extreme right-wing government. Palestinians will pay the price, Diana Buttu writes.Lev Golinkin asks: Why do Harvard, Stanford and NASA still honor Alfried Krupp, a Nazi war criminal?Conservation campaigns centered around individual species known as “spectacles of extinction” can distract from the larger biodiversity crisis, Michelle Nijhuis argues.A Morning ReadGomi, left, and Songkang are white Pungsans, a breed indigenous to North Korea.Chun Jung-in/Yonhap, via Associated PressIn 2018, Kim Jong-un, North Korea’s leader, gave two dogs to South Korea, then led by Moon Jae-in, as a symbol of peace.Four years later, South Korea is in political gridlock and the period of rapprochement on the Korean Peninsula is over. And the two pups, orphaned after a heated dispute over who would pay for their care, ended up in a zoo.PROFILEA Russian artist dissentsVladimir Ovchinnikov, 84, has long painted pastoral scenes across the walls of Borovsk, his provincial hometown, near Moscow.Now, his political art is attracting attention. At a time when dissent is being crushed across Russia, Ovchinnikov has been painting murals protesting the invasion of Ukraine. His own history drove him to denounce violence and war — he did not meet his father until age 11 because his father had spent 10 years in a gulag, and his grandfather and uncle were killed by the state.His work has earned him a reputation as the “Banksy of Borovsk” — which, he said, he does not appreciate. Unlike Banksy, the mysterious street artist based in Britain, Ovchinnikov works in the open. He thinks that his age and his family history offer him a modicum of protection. Still, he has been fined, questioned and pelted with snowballs.“I draw doves, they paint over them,” he said.Banksy: Last month, the artist painted seven murals in and around Kyiv. An activist incited controversy when he removed one of Banksy’s works, saying he intended to auction it off and donate the proceeds to Ukraine’s army.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookJoel Goldberg for The New York TimesThis recipe is for a classic, unadorned latke. (Hanukkah starts on Sunday.)What to Read“The Tatami Galaxy” is a flamboyant vision of college life in Kyoto, Japan, full of obsessive subcultures.What to Watch“Blanquita” explores a sex scandal that sent waves throughout Chile in the early 2000s.Ask WellWhy do men sprout hair in weird places as they age?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Gold bar (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. Jimmy Carter announced that the U.S. and China would establish diplomatic relations 44 years ago today. In doing so, he severed America’s link with Taiwan.“The Daily” is on abortion in the U.S.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      La violencia continúa en Perú tras la destitución de Pedro Castillo

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      Al menos seis personas han muerto a causa de la violencia que se ha extendido por todo el país tras la destitución la semana pasada de Pedro Castillo después de que intentara disolver el Congreso.[El miércoles, el gobierno de Perú anunció un estado de emergencia nacional. Aquí puedes leer más, en inglés, sobre la medida].LIMA — El traspaso relativamente pacífico, aunque abrupto, del poder presidencial en Perú la semana pasada ha derivado en violencia y disturbios, ya que los partidarios del expresidente han intensificado las denuncias de que su destitución fue ilegítima y han protagonizado ataques contra comisarías, juzgados, fábricas, aeropuertos y una base militar.Los manifestantes, respaldados por organizaciones que representan a sindicatos, grupos indígenas y agricultores pobres, exigen nuevas elecciones lo antes posible.Al mismo tiempo, los líderes izquierdistas de varios países latinoamericanos han dado su apoyo al anterior mandatario de Perú, Pedro Castillo, destituido el miércoles pasado y detenido tras intentar disolver el Congreso.Los disturbios de esta semana crecieron y se extendieron a distintas partes del país, mientras el gobierno, al tiempo que denunciaba la violencia, se esforzaba por estabilizar la situación y responder a las demandas de los manifestantes.El martes por la noche, el ministro de Defensa, Alberto Otárola, anunció que las fuerzas armadas asumirían la responsabilidad de proteger infraestructuras estratégicas como aeropuertos y centrales hidroeléctricas, y que el gobierno declararía en breve el estado de emergencia en la red de carreteras del país. “No vamos a negar que la situación del país es en este momento grave y preocupante”, declaró.Al menos seis personas han muerto en los enfrentamientos, según la Defensoría del Pueblo de Perú, y todos los fallecidos parecen ser manifestantes, entre ellos cinco adolescentes. Amnistía Internacional y grupos locales de derechos humanos han acusado a la policía de responder, en algunos casos, con fuerza excesiva.Anteriormente, el martes, la oficina de la Defensoría del Pueblo había dicho que siete manifestantes habían muerto, pero rectificó después de decir que un hombre identificado ante la oficina como muerto no podía encontrarse en el registro civil del país.El martes, la nueva presidenta del país, Dina Boluarte, hizo un llamamiento a la “calma”.“Esta situación que está enlutando al país nos congoja a toda la familia peruana”, dijo a la salida de un hospital de Lima, la capital, tras haber declarado el estado de emergencia en algunas zonas del país.“Yo soy madre de dos hijos y no quisiera estar pasando por esta situación donde nuestros seres queridos están falleciendo”, afirmó.Boluarte hizo campaña junto a Castillo, pero más tarde calificó sus acciones de intento de golpe de Estado. También es de izquierda y nació en el departamento andino de Apurímac, en su mayoría pobre, donde estallaron las primeras protestas.La nueva presidenta dijo que se reuniría con los líderes de las fuerzas armadas de Perú y que tenía la opción de declarar el estado de emergencia nacional, una medida que suspende algunas libertades civiles.Castillo fue destituido tras intentar disolver el Congreso la semana pasada.Victor Gonzales/Consejo de Ministros de Perú vía Agence France-PresseLas autoridades peruanas cerraron al menos dos aeropuertos en medio de las protestas, incluido el de Cuzco, utilizado por los turistas que visitan Machu Picchu y la región circundante conocida como el Valle Sagrado, una importante fuente de ingresos para el país.La policía y el ejército también dijeron que una base conjunta había sido destruida en el departamento de Cusco, mientras que unos 1000 manifestantes habían ocupado una planta de gas en la misma zona.También se suspendió el servicio de trenes desde y hacia Cusco y Machu Picchu, según una alerta de viaje de la Embajada de EE. UU. en Lima.El nuevo ministro de Economía y Finanzas del país, Alex Contreras, declaró a un canal de noticias local, RPP, que las protestas podrían costar a diversos sectores de Perú entre 15 y 26 millones de dólares al día.Un general de la policía, Óscar Arriola, dijo que 119 agentes de policía resultaron heridos en los recientes enfrentamientos, mientras que Amnistía Internacional aseguró que había verificado imágenes de agentes de policía disparando gas lacrimógeno a corta distancia directamente contra los manifestantes en la plaza principal de Lima.En su discurso del martes, Boluarte dijo que “había dado las indicaciones a la policía de no usar ningún arma letal, ni siquiera perdigones de goma”, y añadió que había pedido al ministro del Interior “individualizar a las personas que hayan hecho uso de estas armas que están dañando a nuestras hermanas y a nuestros hermanos”.Castillo, exmaestro de escuela y activista sindical de izquierda que ganó las elecciones presidenciales por un estrecho margen el año pasado, ha tenido problemas para gobernar, enfrentándose a acusaciones de corrupción, incompetencia y mala gestión, mientras los legisladores parecían empeñados en echarlo.La semana pasada, enfrentado a un tercer intento de destitución, anunció que disolvería el Congreso y crearía un nuevo gobierno que gobernaría por decreto.La medida fue ampliamente denunciada tanto por opositores como por antiguos aliados como un intento de golpe de estado. En cuestión de horas, Castillo fue detenido, el Congreso votó por su destitución y la vicepresidenta, Boluarte, una antigua aliada, asumió el cargo.Los acontecimientos se desarrollaron a una velocidad tan vertiginosa que a muchos peruanos les costó entender lo que estaba ocurriendo. Ahora, muchos de los partidarios de Castillo, sobre todo en las zonas rurales que forman su base, dicen que sienten que les han robado su voto.Algunos manifestantes esperan que su movimiento crezca a medida que la policía responda a las manifestaciones con lo que califican de mano dura. Han presentado varios argumentos jurídicos para justificar la ilegalidad de la destitución de Castillo, y piden a Boluarte que convoque nuevas elecciones.Boluarte ya ha dicho que intentará adelantar las próximas elecciones presidenciales dos años, para 2024, un esfuerzo que requerirá la aprobación del Congreso.La presidenta Dina Boluarte hizo un llamamiento a la unidad nacional durante su toma de posesión la semana pasada. Ya ha dicho que intentará adelantar las próximas elecciones presidenciales dos años, hasta 2024.Martin Mejia/Associated PressCastillo es uno de los varios presidentes de izquierda que han llegado al poder en América Latina en los últimos años en medio de un profundo enfado con los políticos de la clase dirigente. Muchos de estos líderes han tratado de unirse en torno a un propósito común que busca hacer frente a la creciente desigualdad y arrebatar el control a la élite política.El lunes por la noche, varios de esos países alineados emitieron una declaración conjunta en la que calificaban al presidente destituido de “víctima de un antidemocrático hostigamiento” e instaban a los líderes políticos de Perú a respetar la “voluntad ciudadana” en las urnas.La declaración, emitida por los gobiernos de Colombia, Bolivia, Argentina y México, se refiere a Castillo como “presidente” y no menciona a Boluarte.El presidente de México, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, en su conferencia matutina del martes, dijo que su gobierno seguirá considerando a Castillo el líder de Perú “hasta que allá lo resuelvan en términos de legalidad”.La relación entre las dos naciones, dijo, estaba “en pausa”.El año pasado, Castillo hizo campaña electoral prometiendo hacer frente a la pobreza y la desigualdad. Su lema —“no más pobres en un país rico”— y su llamamiento a reformar la Constitución animaron a muchos campesinos en un país profundamente desigual donde la élite urbana se opuso con vehemencia a su candidatura.Las protestas cuentan con el respaldo de la mayor federación de sindicatos, la mayor asociación de indígenas de la Amazonia peruana y muchas organizaciones que representan a agricultores pobres, entre otros grupos.Jaime Borda, quien dirige Red Muqui, una red de organizaciones ecologistas y de derechos humanos que trabajan en las zonas rurales de Perú, dijo que la ira en las calles no se debía solamente a la frustración por la destitución de Castillo, sino a un “descontento de la población por todo el acumulado de las cosas de estos últimos años”, a saber, un sistema político que para muchos parecía fomentar la corrupción y servir a las élites.Muchos manifestantes, dijo, creían que Castillo había sido llevado a la autodestrucción política por esa misma élite política.La gente que sigue a Castillo “es muy consciente de que, al final, esa no era la forma de irse, de intentar un golpe de Estado”, dijo. “Pero la gente también te dice pero lo hemos elegido a él como nuestro representante, lo hemos elegido a él como nuestro presidente”.Cunarc, una asociación de patrullas de seguridad rural, se encuentra entre los grupos que lideran las protestas.Santos Saavedra, presidente de Cunarc, dijo que el llamamiento de Boluarte al diálogo “va a ser imposible porque la población no reconoce el gobierno de facto”.Victoriano Laura, de 48 años, un minero de la ciudad de La Rinconada, en lo alto de la cordillera de los Andes, dijo el martes que muchas personas estaban viajando desde La Rinconada a la ciudad de Juliaca, a unos 160 kilómetros de distancia, para protestar.“La gente está furiosa” por la destitución del presidente, dijo. “La violencia está empezando por la provocación de la policía, y la gente no se va a quedar callada”.Hasta ahora, no ha surgido ningún líder que intente unificar a los distintos grupos. Perú se ha visto lastrado por la agitación política y los escándalos de corrupción de alto nivel que han llevado que desfilaran seis presidentes desde 2016.Partidarios de Castillo bloquean la carretera Panamericana Sur en Ica, Perú, el martes.Martin Mejia/Associated PressEn sus escasas apariciones públicas desde su detención por rebelión, Castillo ha defendido sus acciones y no ha mostrado arrepentimiento.Durante su segunda comparecencia ante el tribunal el martes, Castillo dijo que había sido detenido injustamente y que nunca renunciaría.“Jamás renunciaré y abandonaré esta causa popular. Desde aquí quiero exhortar a las Fuerzas Armadas y a la Policía Nacional que depongan las armas y dejen de matar a este pueblo sediento de justicia”, en referencia a los manifestantes.Cuando un juez le interrumpió para preguntarle si quería decir algo en su defensa, Castillo respondió: “Nunca cometí un delito de conspiración ni rebelión”.Mitra Taj More

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      Istanbul Mayor Jailed for Insulting Public Officials, Barring Him From Politics

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      The mayor of Istanbul, a possible rival to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 2023 elections, was convicted of insulting public officials.ISTANBUL — A court in Turkey barred the mayor of Istanbul from political activity for years after convicting him on charges of insulting public officials, a ruling that could sideline a rising star in the opposition who is seen as a potential challenger to President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in elections next year.The mayor, Ekrem Imamoglu, runs Turkey’s largest city and economic center. He was sentenced to two years and seven months in prison but has not been arrested and will appeal the ruling, his party said. If the ruling stands, he would not go to prison because his sentence is below the threshold required for incarceration under Turkish law.But he would be removed as mayor and barred for the duration of his sentence from political activity, including voting and running for or holding public office. That could essentially destroy the near-term prospects of a leader with a proven record of winning elections against Mr. Erdogan’s ruling Justice and Development Party, or A.K.P.Mr. Imamoglu was charged with insulting public officials, a crime under Turkish law. But his supporters see the case against him as a ruse cooked up by Mr. Erdogan and his allies to remove a contender from the political scene.“This case is proof that there is no justice left in Turkey,” Mr. Imamoglu told a demonstrators gathered outside the municipal headquarters to protest the verdict. “This case is a case run by those people who don’t want to bring Turkey the most divine values, such as justice and democracy.”Turks are looking to parliamentary and presidential elections to be held in or before next June to determine the future course of this country of 85 million, one of the world’s 20 largest economies and a member of NATO.Mr. Erdogan, as the country’s predominant politician for nearly two decades and president since 2014, has pushed Turkey toward greater authoritarianism, using his influence over broad swaths of the state to bolster his rule and undermine his rivals. He will seek to extend his tenure next year, although his standing in the polls has dived because of an economic crisis. The Turkish lira has lost much of its value against the dollar, and year-on-year inflation is more than 80 percent, according to government figures.A coalition of six opposition parties hopes to unseat Mr. Erdogan and deprive his party of its parliamentary majority next year, but they have yet to announce a presidential candidate.Mr. Imamoglu has not spoken publicly about whether he will run for president, but some recent polls have found him to be more popular than Mr. Erdogan. He also has the rare distinction of having beaten Mr. Erdogan’s party for control of Turkey’s largest city, twice in the same year.In March 2019, Mr. Imamoglu beat Mr. Erdogan’s chosen candidate in Istanbul’s municipal election, putting Turkey’s largest opposition party in charge of the city for the first time in decades. It was a stinging loss for Mr. Erdogan, not least because he had grown up in the city and made his own political name as its mayor before moving on to national politics.Alleging electoral irregularities, Mr. Erdogan’s party appealed for and were granted a rerun. Mr. Imamoglu won that too, with an even larger margin than he had the first time around.The current case against Mr. Imamoglu has its roots in his public criticism of government decisions in 2019 to remove dozens of mayors from Turkey’s Kurdish minority from their posts and replace them with state-appointed trustees.The government accused those mayors of having ties to the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, a Kurdish militant group that has fought against the state and which Turkey, the United States and the European Union consider a terrorist organization. The mayors denied the charges and critics considered their ouster a subversion of the democratic process.In a speech, Turkey’s interior minister, Suleyman Soylu, called Mr. Imamoglu a “fool” for criticizing the mayors’ removal. Mr. Imamoglu responded that the “fool” was those who had annulled the original results of the Istanbul mayoral elections.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council, which oversees the country’s elections, filed a compliant against Mr. Imamoglu for insulting state officials. A state prosecutor formally charged Mr. Imamoglu last year.Critics have accused Mr. Erdogan of extending his influence over the judiciary, allowing him press for rulings that benefit him politically.In a video message posted on Twitter before the sentence was announced on Wednesday, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the head of Turkey’s largest opposition party, said that a guilty verdict would prove that Turkey’s judges were in cahoots with Mr. Erdogan.“Any decision other than an acquittal will be the confession of a plot and the palace’s orders,” he said, referring to the presidential palace. “I am warning the palace for the last time, get your hand off the judiciary.” More

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      In Fiji’s Closely Observed Election, a Former Coup Leader Is Ahead

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      In a region where China and the United States fight for influence, observers await results from the vote to choose the island nation’s prime minister — and to see if the outcome will be respected.It was a clash between two former coup leaders, set against the backdrop of a remote and palm-fringed vacation destination that has, of late, taken on outsized importance in a battle for primacy in the Pacific between the United States and China.And with the military constitutionally permitted to intervene if it saw fit, that contest was one with the potential to become extremely volatile.So, as voters went to the polls for the general election on Wednesday, focus turned to Fiji, an island nation known regionally for its stormy politics and which experienced four coups between 1987 and 2006. This was the country’s third general election since they were reintroduced to the Constitution in 2013.In preliminary results, Sitiveni Rabuka, the leader of the People’s Alliance party — who led Fiji’s first coup in 1987 — appeared to have secured a narrow victory against the strongman incumbent, Prime Minister Josaia Voreqe Bainimarama. Mr. Bainimarama, widely known by the first name Frank, himself seized power with the help of the military in 2006, before winning democratic elections in 2014 and 2018.The vote count is expected to take as long as two days, with ballots trickling in from outer islands and remote villages. The first set of results was delayed by a matter of hours, as the country’s election results app worked only intermittently. Late on Wednesday night, the release of provisional results was placed on hold as the Fijian Election Office contended with operational difficulties.But as of Wednesday night, Mr. Rabuka’s party, the People’s Alliance, had taken a convincing lead over Mr. Bainimarama’s party, Fiji First.Whether Mr. Bainimarama intends to honor the results remains unclear. Speaking to foreign reporters before the results were released, the former leader said he would “of course” respect the outcome of the election, even if they were not in his favor. He added: “Haven’t they got any intelligent reporters from Australia to come ask me a better question than that?”But experts have warned that Mr. Bainimarama may yet seek to intervene with the support of the military, with which he maintains a close relationship. The country’s Constitution gives final control over citizens’ “security, defense and well-being” to the military, a clause that is widely understood to mean that it has the right to intervene if it sees fit.Election officials preparing to open ballot boxes for counting in Suva on Wednesday.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“It will come down to how the military leadership sees it,” said Dominic O’Sullivan, a professor of political science at Charles Sturt University in Australia. Though the head of the military had in recent days encouraged people to vote and vowed not to interfere, he added, “You can’t take that as an absolute, unbreakable commitment, because it does have the constitutional power.”Before results were counted, Mr. Rabuka suggested that Mr. Bainimarama might appeal to the court system in the event that his party was not the victor. “I’m hoping for a flood of votes in our favor,” he said, “so that if he makes any attempt at going through that system, that course, it will be futile.”Fiji, with a population of about a million people and by far the largest economy of its region, grew closer to China in 2006 after an initial burst of investment from Beijing. The funding was particularly timely as Fiji faced damaging sanctions from Australia and New Zealand related to the coup in which Mr. Bainimarama came to power.The relationship with China could enter a new, more distant phase under Mr. Rabuka, who earlier this year indicated that he would prefer closer ties to Australia, a longtime ally of Fiji, instead of signing a mooted security pact with Beijing.The early election results come after a bitter contest and amid a government clampdown on supporters of opposition parties and the press. In one high-profile example, a pro-opposition lawyer who had made light of an error in a legal document was convicted of contempt of court, a sign of Fiji’s eroding civil liberties.With little pre-election polling, analysts have struggled to predict an outcome. For 48 hours until the election ended, Fiji underwent a media blackout, in which all political parties were forbidden from campaigning. Citizens were prohibited from making political posts on social media, displaying banners and wearing colors or logos of parties. Those who break the rules could be subject to stiff penalties, including prison.Even with little coverage from the news media in Fiji itself, there were early signs that Mr. Bainimarama’s support might be declining, including a dwindling voter share over the last two elections. There is also a sense of disgruntlement among voters about some of the economic challenges the country faces in the wake of the coronavirus pandemic, which devastated its all-important tourism industry.“The government’s been in office for a while, and people tend to tire of long-term governments,” said Professor O’Sullivan.Even Mr. Bainimarama’s government had sought to appeal to calls for a fresh face, running on a platform of reform, with the slogan “We are the change.”Frank Bainimarama leaving a polling station in Suva on Wednesday.Mick Tsikas/EPA, via ShutterstockTurnout in the election was also exceptionally low: Late in the day, Mohammed Saneem, the Fijian election supervisor, called on voters to come to the polls, with 51 percent of voters having cast a ballot as of an hour before polls closed. In the 2006 election, voter turnout was at 64 percent.The situation was concerning, Mr. Saneem told reporters after the polls had closed. He added: “Every Fijian had sufficient time to vote. We have significant numbers of people who did not come to vote.”The Fijian electoral base skews young, with more than 50 percent of registered voters being younger than 40, while 86 percent of candidates on the ballot are over 40. Mr. Bainimarama, 68, is a 16-year veteran of Fijian politics, while Mr. Rabuka, 74, has been a fixture of Fijian political life since 1987.The reluctance to come to the polls may communicate a wider sense of cynicism about the freedom and fairness of the election, said Professor O’Sullivan. “With the two likely contenders for prime minister being former coup leaders, it may be that people think, ‘Is it really democracy?’” More

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      In Congress, Party Switching Cuts Both Ways

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      If history is any guide, Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, the latest lawmaker to change her stripes, faces an uncertain future.WASHINGTON — When Phil Gramm, a conservative House member from Texas, left the Democratic Party in 1983, he immediately quit Congress and forced a special election that he won as a newly minted Republican six weeks later. He called his leave-and-start-from-scratch approach the “only honorable course of action,” since voters had elected him as a Democrat.Arlen Specter, a longtime centrist Republican senator from Pennsylvania, was blunt when he suddenly became a Democrat after backing some Obama administration initiatives in 2009. He said he had consulted his political strategist and been informed that polls showed he could not win a Republican primary; hence, he needed to switch parties if he was to have any hope of political survival. He lost anyway, suffering defeat in a Democratic primary the next year.Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who left the Democratic Party and proclaimed herself an independent last week, was less transparent about her move. She dismissed any suggestion that she had made it to better position herself for a 2024 re-election bid after angering Arizona Democrats by regularly bucking her party, even though poll numbers in the state clearly indicate that she would have a difficult time winning a Democratic primary.Though she asked Senator Chuck Schumer, Democrat of New York and the majority leader, to allow her to keep her committee slots on the Democratic side of the aisle, she refused to say she would align with Democrats, like two other Senate independents, Senators Angus King of Maine and Bernie Sanders of Vermont. She didn’t even want Democrats declaring that they still retained their new 51-to-49 majority, though that is clearly the result for Senate organizational purposes at the moment.Mr. Schumer on Tuesday even dared to utter those numbers.“Senator Sinema asked me to keep her committees and that keeps the Senate committees functioning in a 51-49 vein, and that’s what we want to do,” he said.The switch was another drama-filled episode featuring the enigmatic first-term senator. Democrats are hoping that once the immediate moment passes, Ms. Sinema will continue to work with them for the next two years as she has on numerous major pieces of legislation over the past two years, and that little will change except the letter after her name signifying her partisan affiliation.“She’s always been independent,” said Senator Mark Warner, the Virginia Democrat who has teamed up with Ms. Sinema in multiple bipartisan “gangs” to strike deals on issues such as gun control and infrastructure. “She’s been an effective legislator, and I will continue working with her.”A New U.S. Congress Takes ShapeFollowing the 2022 midterm elections, Democrats maintained control of the Senate while Republicans flipped the House.Divided Government: What does a split Congress mean for the next two years? Most likely a return to gridlock that could lead to government shutdowns and economic turmoil.Kyrsten Sinema: The Arizona senator said that she would leave the Democratic Party and register as an independent, just days after the Democrats secured an expanded majority in the Senate.A Looming Clash: Congressional leaders have all but abandoned the idea of acting to raise the debt ceiling before Democrats lose control of the House, punting the issue to a new Congress.First Gen Z Congressman: In the weeks after his election, Representative-elect Maxwell Frost of Florida, a Democrat, has learned just how different his perspective is from that of his older colleagues.But Democrats are also keeping a wary eye. Any further move away from the party by Ms. Sinema could thrust them back into the 50-50 split they were so thrilled to escape with the re-election of Senator Raphael Warnock in Georgia last week, only to have Ms. Sinema rain on their victory parade days later.Then there is Senator Joe Manchin III, Democrat of West Virginia, who has his own 2024 re-election difficulties ahead. Mr. Manchin assured reporters this week that he had no plans to join Ms. Sinema in the stripes-changing camp, but also said he could not predict the future — a comment no doubt duly noted by his Democratic colleagues.While Mr. Warner is correct that Ms. Sinema has always been independent, her change of affiliation does offer her some distance from her old party if she wants to emphasize it. Both Republicans and Democrats will be watching to see if that translates into a new approach. She said in interviews, an op-ed and a video statement that she does not intend to operate any differently than she has to date.“I’m going to keep doing exactly what I do, which is just stay focused on the work and ignore all the noise,” she told CNN.But Republicans will no doubt try to capitalize on her new status. For instance, Senator Charles E. Grassley, Republican of Iowa, used Twitter to urge the new independent to insist that Senate committees be evenly divided instead of the one-seat advantage Democrats are expecting to have beginning in January.“Now Sen Sinema is independent & she correctly states ppl tired of partisanship,” he said in a tweet. “One step she cld take even though she won’t caucus w Republicans is push to keep equal party numbers on committees like this congress. That wld result in more bipartisanship.”Such a move by Ms. Sinema, suffice it to say, would be frowned on by Democrats.Senator Mitch McConnell, the Kentucky Republican and minority leader, on Tuesday noted his own strong relationship with Ms. Sinema.“She and I talk all the time,” he said. “She has a lot of friends on our side of the aisle, including me, and I think she’s decided she’s genuinely an independent and is charting her own course, and I wish her well.”In her announcement, Ms. Sinema sought to emphasize her independent streak to diminish any criticism that she had played bait and switch with Arizona voters by running as a Democrat only to abandon the party label four years later when it appeared she might not fare well in a party primary.“When I ran for the U.S. Senate, I pledged to be independent and work with anyone to achieve lasting results,” she said.But she ran as a Democrat, benefiting from millions of dollars in party spending, and some Arizonans clearly feel cheated, judging by the swell of attacks on her emanating from the state. Mr. Schumer and other Democrats say it is way too early to weigh in on whether they would back her or a declared Democrat when 2024 rolls around.Party-switching on Capitol Hill gained steam in the Reagan years as multiple congressional Democrats from the South moved to the Republican side, in line with the sweeping political realignment coursing through the region. Sometimes it worked; sometimes it did not.Representative Bill Grant, a lifelong Democrat from Florida’s conservative Panhandle, was courted by President George H.W. Bush to jump the Democratic ship in 1989 by promising to campaign for him the next year.“This action is not going to change the way I vote,” Mr. Grant promised in an appearance with the president.It did change the way his constituents voted when it came to him. He was defeated by Democrat Pete Peterson the next year after Mr. Peterson, a former Vietnam prisoner of war, accused Mr. Grant of a breach of faith with voters by changing parties midstream.Senator Richard C. Shelby of Alabama, who is retiring this year after six terms, became an enthusiastic Republican after the party’s congressional election sweep in 1994, and has survived quite comfortably.“I got the same amount of votes as a Republican as I did as a Democrat,” Mr. Shelby said this week. “I was elected twice as a Democrat and four times as a Republican. I had no compunction about it. I have no regrets.”Ms. Sinema’s political fate is yet to be determined. Democrats just hope she sticks with them in the near future.“I’m sure it was an important and maybe difficult decision for her to make personally,” said Senator Richard J. Durbin of Illinois, the No. 2 Democrat. “I am going to work with Kyrsten in her capacity as long as she’s working toward the same goals that I share.” More

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      Violence Grows in Peru After President Pedro Castillo Is Ousted

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      At least six people have been killed in violence that has spread across the country following last week’s impeachment of Pedro Castillo after he tried to dissolve Congress.LIMA, Peru — A relatively peaceful, if abrupt, transfer of presidential power in Peru last week has shifted into violence and unrest as supporters of the former president intensified claims that his ouster was illegitimate and have staged attacks against police stations, courthouses, factories, airports and a military base.The protesters, backed by organizations that represent unions, Indigenous groups and poor farmers, are demanding new elections as quickly as possible.At the same time, the leftist leaders of several Latin American countries have thrown their support behind Peru’s former leader, Pedro Castillo, who was removed from office last Wednesday and arrested after he tried to dissolve Congress.The resulting unrest this week has grown and spread to different parts of the country as the government, while denouncing the violence, has struggled to stabilize the situation and respond to protesters’ demands.On Tuesday night the defense minister, Alberto Otárola, announced that the armed forces would take responsibility for protecting strategic infrastructure such as airports and hydroelectric plants, and that the government would soon declare a state of emergency for the nation’s highway system. “We are not going to deny that the situation in this country is currently serious and worrying,” he said.At least six people have died in the clashes, according to Peru’s ombudsman’s office, with all of the dead appearing to be protesters, among them five teenagers. Amnesty International and local human rights groups have accused the police of responding, in some cases, with excessive force.Earlier Tuesday, the ombudsman’s office had said that seven protesters died, but corrected itself after it said that a man identified to the office as dead could not be found in the country’s civil registry.On Tuesday, the country’s new president, Dina Boluarte, called for “calm.’’“This situation that has cast a shadow over the country is causing anguish to the entire Peruvian family,” she said, speaking outside a hospital in Lima, the capital, having declared parts of the country under a state of emergency.“I am a mother of two children, and I do not want to be going through this situation where our loved ones are dying,” she said.Ms. Boluarte once campaigned alongside Mr. Castillo, but later called his actions a coup attempt. She is also a leftist, and comes from the largely poor Andean department of Apurímac, where the protests first erupted.What to Know About the Ousting of Peru’s PresidentCard 1 of 4Who is Pedro Castillo? More

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      Concern Grows in Israel’s Military as Netanyahu Nears Coalition Deal

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      Preliminary agreements between Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies have raised questions about political interference in the army’s chain of command.JERUSALEM — When a serving Israeli soldier expressed his approval last month of a far-right politician who is set to become a minister in Benjamin Netanyahu’s likely new coalition government, it set off a national furor.The politician, Itamar Ben-Gvir, was deemed too extremist to serve in the army himself. Until 2020, he displayed in his home a portrait of a Jewish gunman who in 1994 shot dead 29 Palestinians inside a mosque.The Israeli military’s chief of staff, Lt. Gen. Aviv Kochavi, quickly released a rare public letter warning soldiers against getting involved in politics, while the soldier was sent to military jail for several days.“Soldiers are prohibited from expressing political views,” General Kochavi wrote. “They are certainly prohibited from behaving and acting out of political inclination,” he added.The episode was just one of several recent incidents that have threatened the cohesion of an institution, the Israel Defense Forces, that has historically been viewed by Jewish Israelis as an emblem of stability and unity.To Palestinians, the military is the face of Israel’s airstrikes on Gaza, raids on West Bank cities and two-tier legal system in the territory that some critics liken to a form of apartheid, a claim denied by Israel.But among Jewish Israelis, the military is among the country’s most trusted institutions, a melting pot in which most of them serve for three years of conscription, shoring up the country against an unusually high range of security threats from across the Middle East.Now, leading members of the Israeli security establishment fear that image and role is under threat. A significant proportion of rank-and-file soldiers voted for the far right in last month’s general election — mirroring a wider shift in the country at large, but increasing the likelihood of friction between low-ranking soldiers and their commanders.Israeli soldiers participating in a military exercise in the Golan Heights this month. Among Jewish Israelis, the military is among the country’s most trusted institutions.Jalaa Marey/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesOf voters who cast ballots away from home in a general election last month, most of whom were likely to be serving soldiers, more than 15 percent voted for the far right, according to an analysis by Ofer Kenig of the Israel Democracy Institute, a Jerusalem-based research group. That was about 50 percent higher than in the wider population.In a public letter to Mr. Netanyahu last week, a group of more than 400 former senior officers, Commanders for Israel’s Security, warned that recent events could “end in internal divisions and conflict between officers and troops, insubordination, anarchy and ultimately, the disintegration of the I.D.F. as an effective fighting force.”What to Know About Israel’s Latest ElectionThe country held its fifth election in less than four years on Nov. 1.Netanyahu’s Return: Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s opposition leader, is set to return to power with a new, far-right coalition that will once again make him prime minister.  But several issues, including his cabinet choices, have complicated the forming of a government.The Far Right’s Rise: To win the election, Mr. Netanyahu and his far-right allies harnessed perceived threats to Israel’s Jewish identity.What’s Next for the Left?: After a near wipeout, the leaders of Israel’s left-leaning parties say they need to change — but disagree on how.Worries Among Palestinians: To some Palestinians, the rise of Israel’s far right can scarcely make things worse. But many fear a surge of violence.Mr. Netanyahu did not respond to the former generals’ letter directly and his spokesman declined to comment for this article. But he has said in other interviews that Israel will remain safe under his leadership.Military strategy is about “deciding on policies that could be quite inflammatory,” Mr. Netanyahu said in a podcast interview last month. “I’m trying to avoid that,” he added.Mr. Netanyahu’s bloc won an election on Nov. 1 but it has yet to enter office because of internal disagreements over policy and legal obstacles to the appointment of two men earmarked for ministerial positions. On Tuesday, Mr. Netanyahu’s alliance voted in a new speaker of Parliament, a move that will allow the bloc to pass new legislation to enable those appointments.But while he is not yet back in power, Mr. Netanyahu’s preliminary coalition agreements, which risk diluting the military chain of command — and the fallout from the incident last month in the West Bank — have already drawn concerns about the military’s ability to rise above the political maelstrom.Disparaging comments by far-right politicians about army leadership, and displays of support for the far-right from low-ranking soldiers, have led to rare public comments from the military chief of staff, Aviv Kochavi.Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHistorically, Israel’s military leaders were sometimes portrayed as a moderating force, tempering the most dramatic ideas of civilian leaders — while also cultivating an image of remaining beyond the political fray.That projection of detachment has always been tested, particularly as generations of generals entered civilian politics soon after leaving military service. Staffed mostly by conscripts, the Israel Defense Forces is often described as a “people’s army,” and the social headwinds that buffet the armed forces have long been a microcosm of those that affect society at large.The fallout from the incident last month reflected a wider sociocultural schism between Israel’s centrist establishment, which broadly seeks to maintain the current status quo in Israel and the West Bank — and Mr. Netanyahu’s far right allies, who seek sweeping judicial reforms, an even harder stance against Palestinians in the West Bank, and an even stronger sense of Jewish identity within Israel.Policing a small protest in Hebron, a West Bank city where there is frequent violence between settlers and Palestinians, the soldier was filmed chastising anti-occupation activists, telling them, “Ben-Gvir will fix things here.”While centrist and left-leaning Israelis were alarmed, others on the right felt the soldier had done little wrong. To them, the soldier’s punishment also proved the salience of Mr. Ben-Gvir’s campaign rhetoric, which suggested that rank-and-file soldiers needed greater support, including legal immunity.Palestinians see the Israeli military as far too quick to shoot — Israeli raids in the West Bank have left more than 160 dead this year, according to records kept by The New York Times. But Mr. Ben-Gvir believes the army is too timid.“The time has come for a government that supports its soldiers and allows them to act,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said after the Hebron incident.A soldier voting in the Israeli general elections at a military base on Mount Hermon in October.Jalaa Marey/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe standoff exemplified how Mr. Ben-Gvir and other far right leaders “see themselves as the tribunes of the front line soldiers being hung out to dry by an old-school, defeatist, globalist and ideologically untrustworthy military high command,” said Prof. Yehudah Mirsky, an expert on Israel at Brandeis University.Pushed to intervene, Mr. Netanyahu took a cautious tone. He avoided criticizing Mr. Ben-Gvir, and instead called on “everyone, right and left” to leave the military out of political debate.Such standoffs have precedent: In 2016, Gadi Eisenkot, then the chief of staff, was heavily criticized by the Israeli right after condemning a soldier who shot dead an incapacitated Palestinian assailant.But Mr. Netanyahu’s failure to restrain Mr. Ben-Gvir has left some in the security establishment fearful that soldiers may feel more empowered to take political positions in the future.“The fact that there are soldiers who do not behave according to the ethos of the I.D.F. and the military chain of command is not new,” said Amos Yadlin, a former head of military intelligence. “The concern is whether the magnitude of the phenomenon will be higher,” he said.Such fears have been compounded by the agreements that Mr. Netanyahu has made with Mr. Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, the leader of another far-right group in the alliance.A member of Mr. Netanyahu’s party, likely to be Yoav Gallant, a former army general, will remain in overall charge of the defense ministry, scotching Mr. Smotrich’s early hope of taking that job.But Mr. Netanyahu’s coalition agreement with Mr. Smotrich gave the latter total control of a department within the defense ministry that is staffed by serving soldiers who oversee bureaucratic aspects of the occupation.Itamar Ben-Gvir, left, and Bezalel Smotrich, at a swearing-in ceremony for the new Israeli Parliament in Jerusalem last month.Pool photo by Abir SultanA separate agreement with Mr. Ben-Gvir would give him control over a special paramilitary police unit that, until now, has worked under the Israeli Army in the West Bank.Some former generals have downplayed the consequences of these decisions and a few have even argued that Mr. Smotrich and Mr. Ben-Gvir could provide a welcome new approach to Israeli security strategy.“Both Smotrich and Ben-Gvir can challenge existing thought patterns within the defense establishment and provoke fresh thinking, despite not having served in combat,” said Amir Avivi, a reserve brigadier general and the head of the Israel Defense and Security Forum, a group of former officers.But many former generals strongly disagree. In interviews with The New York Times, several said that both moves could undermine the army’s chain of command in the West Bank, creating three separate sources of authority instead of only one.Some also said it could amount to a de facto annexation of parts of the West Bank.By giving civilians greater involvement in military activity in the territory, the new government might undermine Israel’s longstanding argument that its 55-year occupation is only a temporary military measure, in accordance with international law, instead of a permanent civilian annexation.“We’re losing our protection in the international courts,” said Ilan Paz, a former general who helped lead the West Bank occupation during the 2000s.“Israel won’t be able to continue closing her eyes, and the world’s eyes,” Mr. Paz added.Hiba Yazbek contributed reporting. More