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      GOP Begins Ballot Watching Push Ahead of Election Day

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      Tedium and suspicion mix as skeptical observers monitor the largely monotonous work at a sprawling elections office near Las Vegas.NORTH LAS VEGAS, Nev. — The questions began soon after the doors opened to the public at a sprawling elections office inside a warehouse, and they kept coming until the sky was dark and a cold wind was blowing outside. Hundreds of thousands of ballots for Clark County, which encompasses Las Vegas, are processed, sorted and counted here, against a backdrop of mountains and desert.Because elections in America are more fraught than ever, the scrutiny of ballot counting now starts well before Election Day, and the legal challenges have already begun.The Republican Party and allied groups, many seized by Donald J. Trump’s falsehoods about fraud in elections, are training monitors around the country to spot what they see as irregularities at absentee ballot counting centers. The monitors are told to take copious notes, which could be useful for potential court challenges, raising the prospect of a replay in state and local elections of Mr. Trump’s attempt to use the courts to overturn his loss two years ago.The activity has not produced reports of major disruptions or problems. But on Thursday, local officials were taking no chances at the vote counting center in Clark County: For almost every observer, the elections office had an “ambassador” to escort and observe the observers. Suspicions ran high.“What are those boxes for?” an older woman in a red coat inquired, pointing to a couple of empty bins. She was sitting behind a glass barrier encircling a cavernous vote tabulation area that had been transformed into a large fishbowl. A county official assured her that he would check; he later said they were used to store damaged ballots. Then she asked why county workers were allowed to bring in bags, fretting that they could be used to smuggle ballots, and was told they were most likely used by the staff to carry in their lunches.Another observer wanted to know what was written on some blue sticky notes that were too far away to read. (They are used to alphabetize unopened ballots.) And a third, a 61-year-old dental hygienist named Caryl Tunison, asked, “Why do you not have cameras in every area here?” while she paused from writing in a notebook on her lap. She was sitting face to face with a young woman about three yards away, a county worker who sat on the other side of a glass partition and was placing envelopes in a bin.In a statement, the county elections department said that it “goes above and beyond what the law requires for observation.”“We recognize the value of helping observers understand the process and responding to their questions, and work to provide answers to their wide variety of questions every day,” the statement read.Sealed ballot boxes stored in cages at the Clark County Election Department on Friday.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesMonitoring elections has long been part of the voting process. But this year, the Republican National Committee has worked alongside outside groups like the Election Integrity Network to seek out activists who believe conspiracy theories about the 2020 election and elections in general being corrupted. The Election Integrity Network is a group led by Mark Meadows, who served as White House chief of staff during the Trump administration, and organized by Cleta Mitchell, one of Mr. Trump’s former lawyers.A number of Republican candidates around the country have stated that they may not accept election results if they lose, heightening concerns among many elections experts. But election officials say that they, too, are far better organized this time around. That high level of organization — and the scrutiny from election denial activists — was evident on a recent visit here.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.House Democrats: Several moderates elected in 2018 in conservative-leaning districts are at risk of being swept out. That could cost the Democrats their House majority.A Key Constituency: A caricature of the suburban female voter looms large in American politics. But in battleground regions, many voters don’t fit the stereotype.Crime: In the final stretch of the campaigns, politicians are vowing to crack down on crime. But the offices they are running for generally have little power to make a difference.Abortion: The fall of Roe v. Wade seemed to offer Democrats a way of energizing voters and holding ground. Now, many worry that focusing on abortion won’t be enough to carry them to victory.Many of the observers are people like Ms. Tunison, who believes the 2020 election was stolen and who said she was encouraged in her newfound activism by her pastor. She repeated a conspiracy theory, which circulated on social media after the 2020 election, that several swing states simultaneously halted counting to thwart Donald Trump. “Who was able to call all the counties and get them to stop counting all at once?” she asked.“I just think the whole system is kind of messed up,” she added in an interview as she was leaving. “We could do much better. I think the whole system should be scrapped and started over with something that’s actually secure.”And what would it be replaced with? “I’m not exactly sure, but I know that it should be mechanical,” she said, with “no internet access to any machine.” But she also said maybe tabulation could be done with “something like the blockchain,” referring to the same technology that is at the heart of Bitcoin.Baseless theories about foreign plots to hack voting machines have ricocheted around the right-wing media for two years and have been pushed by well-funded Trump allies, including Mike Lindell, the MyPillow chief executive.In fact, there is no evidence of widespread fraud or malfeasance in elections. And while there is a criminal investigation underway of election tampering in Georgia, it is examining the conduct of Mr. Trump and his circle of advisers.Still, a number of Republican lawyers have primed poll monitors to search for irregularities that could be used to bring legal challenges to the results later on.That would repeat a strategy used in some states in 2020, but many involved say they are better organized this election cycle. Even as the monitoring was taking place on Thursday in Clark County, a local judge rejected a bid by the R.N.C. to have more representation on panels that verify ballot signatures.At the Clark County office, ballots come in from polling places and drop boxes and are brought to a loading dock in the back of the warehouse. Then they are moved through a series of stations where observers from the public can view how they are handled.The number of observers fluctuated throughout the day and into the night. There was a woman in a leather hat complaining that she had been treated rudely by a county worker, a man watching while he twiddled a Rubik’s Cube.A young man from the R.N.C., who declined to comment, monitored late into the evening, while toting around a book by Ray Dalio, the hedge fund manager, called “The Changing World Order,” which ponders the rise of China and the twilight of America.Placards throughout the office inform the observers of state law and guidelines. They are prohibited, the placards say, from “talking to workers within the central counting” area or from “advocating for or against a candidate.”Much of the work is monotonous. In one area, stacks of ballots that had been through a sorting machine were hand counted for verification purposes. Watching the workers count the ballots was a tedious business. One observer, whose hair was pulled back in a pink scrunchie, paused from her own note taking to lean over and whisper to a reporter who was taking his own notes. She offered the friendly admonition of an armchair editor: “It’s going to be a boring article.”Unopened mail-in ballots being sorted at the Clark County Election Department on Friday.Bridget Bennett for The New York TimesIn another room, a group of seven observers watched as ballots were fed through the ballot sorting machine. Those that looked good were put into green bins set out on a long table in the middle of the room. Ballots with signatures that could not be verified using county records were sorted into red bins for further review. The sound of the thrumming machine was not unlike a train going over tracks.“I was being lulled to sleep,” said Matt Robison, a 60-year-old service technician for a propane company who came with his wife of 39 years, Sandra. They had not come on behalf of any particular group, but because of their own concerns about the last election.“These people have a job to do, and it looks like they’re doing their job,” said Mr. Robison. “If there’s ballots being shredded or anything like that, there’s no way that we’ll ever be able to see that. But I personally feel like there had been — I don’t know about necessarily in Nevada — but there had been election tampering in 2020. But the thing is I think that what we’re able to witness here shows people doing their jobs.”Election officials have long hoped that letting skeptics into the process would convince them to reject the conspiracy theories. That seemed a tall order in Clark County.Mr. Robison described himself as uncomfortable with “woke ideologies” and as a fan of “2000 Mules,” the film promoting conspiracy theories that have been discredited by experts, media outlets and government agencies.“You know, Dinesh D’Souza’s film?” he said, referring to the film’s director, who was pardoned by Mr. Trump after pleading guilty to campaign finance fraud. The film’s two star experts, Catherine Engelbrecht and Gregg Phillips, were recently jailed for contempt of court.Still, he was cautious about what he thought about the 2020 election. “Unless I can see it, unless I actually witness something, then I can’t confirm,” he said, adding that if he “put my right hand in the air and swear solemnly to tell the truth and the whole truth,” the “truth would be I don’t know.”His wife, a gun training instructor, is more strident in her views and has come more often to observe. Her husband said, jokingly, that “she’s addicted.”Ms. Robison expressed dissatisfaction with the county and the observation process and wanted to see the ballots being unloaded in the back of the building — “the entire chain of custody,” as she put it.The county elections department said in its statement that its “observation plan was reviewed by the Nevada Secretary of State’s Office and upheld by the court before the primary election” and that “this included identifying the areas where observation would be provided.”For Trump supporters like Ms. Robison, the 2020 election was a catalyst.“There’s no question in my mind and a lot of other people’s minds that 46 should not be in the White House,” she said, referring to President Biden. “It was a stolen election.” More

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      Far Right’s Rise in Israel Driven by Anxiety and Fear

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      To win election, Benjamin Netanyahu and his far-right allies harnessed perceived threats to Israel’s Jewish identity after ethnic unrest last year and the subsequent inclusion of Arab lawmakers in the government.LOD, Israel — The sectarian unrest between Arabs and Jews that swept across Israeli cities in May 2021 helped end Benjamin Netanyahu’s last term in office. Seventeen months later, fallout from that same unrest has helped put him back in power — at the head of one of the most right-wing coalitions Israel has ever known.Last year’s riots, in places like Lod, a central city with a mixed Arab and Jewish population, helped nudge Naftali Bennett — a onetime ally of Mr. Netanyahu — toward breaking ranks. Mr. Bennett ran on the promise of trying to heal Israel’s sectarian divides, and he formed a rival coalition with centrist, leftist and Arab lawmakers that ousted Mr. Netanyahu from office last June.Right-wing Jewish voters this past week punished Mr. Bennett for that decision, which they grew to see as a betrayal of Israel’s Jewish identity. His party suffered a wipeout in the general election on Monday, while support for a more extreme alliance doubled. And it is that far-right alliance, Religious Zionism, that has given back to Mr. Netanyahu his parliamentary majority.“Nobody who voted for Bennett looked at what happened over the last year and thought, ‘Let’s do that again,’” said Noam Dreyfuss, a community organizer in Lod who voted for Mr. Bennett in 2021.“Most of us voted this time for Religious Zionism,” Mr. Dreyfuss said. With Religious Zionism, he added, “What you vote for is what you get.”An event on Friday that was organized by Noam Dreyfuss, a community organizer in Lod who voted for Naftali Bennett in 2021 but for Religious Zionism this year.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesMr. Dreyfuss on Friday in Lod. With Religious Zionism, he said, “What you vote for is what you get.”Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesIsrael’s rightward shift began decades ago and accelerated after the second Palestinian intifada, or uprising, in the early 2000s. A wave of Palestinian terrorist attacks at the time swayed many Israelis toward the right-wing narrative that Israel had no partner for peace.Israel’s lurch toward the far right in this election, however, was also born from more recent fears about Israel losing its Jewish identity.The 2021 riots occurred against the backdrop of unrest in Jerusalem and the outbreak of war between Israel and Gazan militants. The unrest saw two Arabs and two Jews killed, hundreds injured and thousands arrested, most of them Arabs. Among Arabs, the fallout fueled a sense of discrimination and danger. Among Jews, it fed fears of an enemy within — Israel’s Arab minority, which forms about a fifth of the population of nine million.Ever since, the riots have become a shorthand among some Jews for wider anxiety about other kinds of threats, including deadly attacks on Israelis and unrest in southern Israel this year.The formation of a unity government last summer that included right-wingers like Mr. Bennett as well as Arab Islamists was partly rooted in political pragmatism, but it also aimed to salve the wounds of the riots and encourage greater Jewish-Arab partnership.Yet to many right-wing voters, it was seen as a betrayal. They perceived the coalition’s dependence on Raam, the Arab party that sealed the government’s majority, as a danger to the state’s Jewish character. The efforts by Jewish-led leftist parties in the coalition to secularize aspects of Israeli public life, like permitting public transportation on the Jewish Sabbath, also exacerbated fears that Israel’s Jewishness was under threat.Mr. Netanyahu’s main far-right ally, Itamar Ben-Gvir, campaigned on a promise to tackle perceived lawlessness, end perceived Arab influence on government and strengthen Israel’s Jewish identity.Itamar Ben-Gvir, Mr. Netanyahu’s main far-right ally, during a night walk with supporters last month in Jerusalem.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesMr. Ben-Gvir’s main campaign slogan asked: “Who’s the landlord here?”Critics of Mr. Ben-Gvir focus on his history of extremism and antagonism toward Arabs.As a young man, he was convicted of racist incitement and support for a terrorist group. He was barred from army service because Israeli officials deemed him too extremist. He was a follower of a rabbi who wanted to strip Arab Israelis of their citizenship. Until 2020, he hung in his home a large photograph of a Jewish extremist who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994. Today, he still wants to deport anyone he deems disloyal to Israel.But many of Mr. Ben-Gvir’s new supporters saw someone else: a straight-talker who recognized their anxieties and proposed a response.“People voted for him, not necessarily because they are racists, but because they thought he might be a strong leader that could bring order to the street,” said Shuki Friedman, the vice president of the Jewish People Policy Institute, a Jerusalem-based research group that focuses on Jewish identity.The streets of Lod on Friday. Sectarian unrest swept across Israeli cities, including Lod, last year.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesHussen Shehada, the father of the former Lod city councilor Fida Shehada, picking olives in his garden on Friday in Lod.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesMr. Ben-Gvir’s rise was propelled by Israel’s “general shift to the right, fears over personal security and fears for the Jewish character of the state,” Dr. Friedman said.Among the Palestinian minority, which fears Mr. Ben-Gvir’s rise, the fallout from the riots also prompted electoral consequences in places like Lod.If the riots briefly raised questions for Jewish Israelis about the future of a Jewish homeland, they also left Palestinian Israelis feeling terrified and discriminated against.Nationally, the vast majority of those arrested in the riots were Arabs, leading to accusations of systemic bias.In Lod, a group of Jews accused of killing an Arab resident were quickly released and acquitted, while several Arabs suspected of killing a Jew were detained and charged with murder.In this past week’s election, this sense of disproportion helped bolster Balad, a small Arab party that won three times more votes in Lod than the other Arab-led parties combined. Its leader, Sami Abu Shehadeh, became known for defending the city’s Arab residents in the riots’ aftermath.Ms. Shehada on Friday outside her home in Lod. She voted this past week for Balad, a small Arab party that won three times more votes in Lod than the other Arab-led parties combined.Amit Elkayam for The New York Times“Sami was here with the people after the events of May,” said Fida Shehada, a former Lod city councilor who voted Balad for the first time. “It’s natural for people here to support him.”Known in Arabic as Lydda or Lydd, Lod’s recent tensions exacerbate longstanding Palestinian trauma. During the wars surrounding the creation of the state of Israel in 1948, after local Arabs and their allies refused the partition proposed by the United Nations, many Palestinian residents of the city were expelled and never allowed to return.Mr. Ben-Gvir’s new supporters say they do not necessarily agree with all of his positions.Rinat Mazuz-Bloch, a youth group leader, voted for Mr. Bennett in 2021 and Mr. Ben-Gvir in 2022 — but not out of a desire for revenge.“People didn’t vote Ben-Gvir because we want to hit the Arabs back,” Ms. Mazuz-Bloch said. “They’re here and we need to relate to them.”But, she added, “We have to say out loud that this is a Jewish state.”Rinat Mazuz-Bloch, a youth group leader, on Friday with her family in their home in Lod. She voted for Mr. Bennett in 2021 and Mr. Ben-Gvir in 2022.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesA game of table tennis on Friday in the backyard of Omri Saar, a city councilman for Likud in Lod.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesMr. Dreyfuss, the community organizer, said that he was not necessarily opposed to Arab participation in government, and that he accepted that Raam, the small Arab party that formed part of the departing government, made a sincere effort to accept Israel’s status as a Jewish state.But Mr. Dreyfuss still believes that an Arab party should not hold the balance of power in the government, as Raam did.“The mistake is to be dependent on them,” he said. “Once you have a majority, then you can add them.”Mr. Ben-Gvir’s success was rooted not only in his hard-line approach to Arabs, but also in his opposition to the departing government’s moves to secularize aspects of Israeli public life. And some simply voted for him to enlarge his party’s presence in Parliament, making it harder for Mr. Netanyahu’s party, Likud, to form an alliance with centrists.“The vote for Religious Zionism was a vote for a clearer and sharper position,” said Omri Saar, a city councilman for Likud in Lod.After Mr. Bennett’s U-turn in 2021, Mr. Saar said, “There’s no doubt many chose a more extreme party than Likud to make sure that their vote would stay in the right-wing camp.”And to Mr. Saar, that was a positive thing, even if it cost Likud a few votes itself. “It’s good that we have someone who can pull us in the right direction,” he said.Religious Zionism posters affixed to a house on Friday in Lod. Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesMr. Dreyfuss, whose organization was subject to an arson attack during the riots, also denied that Mr. Ben-Gvir’s election would be so harmful to Arabs.By cracking down on lawlessness in Arab neighborhoods, Mr. Ben-Gvir would improve the personal safety of any Arab who was not involved in crime, Mr. Dreyfuss said.“Everyone can live here,” Mr. Dreyfuss said.“But they need to remember that we’re the landlords here,” he added.Reporting was contributed by More

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      They Are Betting $100 Million on Pluralism. Will It Work?

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      In February 2020, in the midst of a vitriolic presidential election, an idealistic group of donors from across the ideological spectrum met to plan an ambitious new project. They called themselves the New Pluralists and pledged to spend a whopping $100 million over the next decade to fight polarization by funding face-to-face interactions among Americans across political, racial and religious divides.Fixing what is broken in American democracy requires more than changing voter ID laws or the shape of our congressional districts, they argued. It requires forging deep personal connections that will change hearts and minds and ultimately American culture itself.Their experiment rests on a basic idea: Far too many Americans lack the skills, the opportunity and even the inclination to work together across lines of difference toward a common goal. Part of the solution, these donors believe, is embracing a very old idea that has fallen out of fashion: pluralism.The term “cultural pluralism” was coined in the early 1900s by Horace Kallen, a Jewish philosopher who proposed it in the midst of a huge wave of immigrants from Southern and Eastern Europe. He argued that rather than try to stamp out their Polishness, Italianness or Jewishness, as many white Anglo-Saxon Protestants wanted, America should be a “nation of nationalities” where people learn to work together across lines of difference. The freedom to be different but still participate in political life as a vital part of the whole was key to the country’s genius, he argued. Mr. Kallen thought of the American people not as a melting pot, where everyone turns into the same bland stew, but as an orchestra, where distinct sounds join harmoniously.That notion fuels the New Pluralists, too. Although it’s hard to find two people who describe the project the same way, respecting difference, not papering it over, is seen as central.In his era, Mr. Kallen drew fierce criticism from those who accused him of promoting a Balkanization of the country. A scathing review of his book in The New York Times in 1924 declared that the nation faced a stark choice: “Is it to remain one in spirit, tradition and language, or is it to become a hodgepodge boardinghouse for alien groups?” It wasn’t until the 1980s, with the rise of the idea of multiculturalism, that his ideas were widely embraced.Today the New Pluralists project is grappling with a similar set of challenges as the ones Mr. Kallen wrote about over a century ago. An influx of immigrants is once again challenging prevailing notions of who Americans are and what it takes to make a country harmonious and whole. At the same time, the country does indeed feel Balkanized along a host of fault lines: rural versus urban, young versus old, religious versus secular and, of course, red versus blue.But the critiques that pluralism faces today are different. Far from being considered too radical, pluralism might not sound radical enough in an era of insurrection and potential coups. To some activists, pluralism sounds like both-sides-ism or a call to meet in the mushy middle. And yet pluralism feels more crucial than ever. Our multiracial democracy can’t survive without it.I discovered the New Pluralists this summer after I attended an online workshop on depolarizing hosted by one of its grantees, a group called Braver Angels. I found the group online because, at a time when so much attention is paid to toxic politics, I wanted to know more about groups that stood for just the opposite.Co-founded by Bill Doherty, a Minneapolis-based marriage counselor, Braver Angels is an organization with grass-roots chapters across the country that teach conservatives and liberals to debunk lazy stereotypes and clarify disagreements without yelling. In the workshop I attended, reds and blues wrestled with how they typecast the other side. Nearly all the participants were white and looked to be over the age of 40. And they were, by definition, open to reaching across the partisan divide. In other words, they were low-hanging fruit. I came away feeling more hopeful about the country nonetheless.I realized then that there was a whole ecosystem of groups, created during the Trump years, that is dedicated to bridging divides: the People’s Supper, which helps communities host potluck dinners and other events that promote racial and political reconciliation; the One Small Step project at StoryCorps, which brings together strangers for recorded conversations about their lives; More in Common, which surveys public opinion and put out an influential paper about the country’s “exhausted majority.” The New Pluralists help fund them all.The idea for the New Pluralists came about in the wake of Donald Trump’s election. Jennifer Hoos Rothberg, the New York-based executive director of the Einhorn Collaborative, a foundation started by a Wisconsin-bred hedge fund manager, said it kept getting calls from people who were alarmed by the level of polarization and thought they could help fix it. One call came from Melissa Weintraub, a longtime conflict resolution practitioner who had worked with Israelis and Palestinians.“You know that tool kit I use in the Middle East? I want to bring that to Wisconsin and Iowa,” Ms. Rothberg recalled Ms. Weintraub saying.Right then and there, Ms. Rothberg told me, “we set up a rapid response organizing around bridging divides.” The Einhorn Collaborative gave away $6 million in one-off funds but wanted to do something bigger. In 2019, Ms. Rothberg invited other donors involved in similar work to a meeting in New York to see if they could pool their money to fund these projects on a larger scale. She purposefully invited donors from across the political spectrum. Stand Together Trust, formerly the Charles Koch Institute, which funds social ventures to solve common problems, agreed to join. But that made some social justice funders on the left balk because they didn’t want to be in the same room, Fay Twersky, who attended that meeting as a representative of the William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, told me.In the end, about a dozen donors stuck with it. They landed on the name the New Pluralists, partly because pluralism felt neutral in an era when so many words have taken on a partisan flavor. This past summer, they brought together a group of grantees for a retreat in Atlanta in an attempt to foster relationships among them. They included the civil rights thinker john powell of the Othering & Belonging Institute and Rachel Peric of Welcoming America. They are called field builders in the New Pluralists’ overly cerebral parlance. The big idea here is to turn pluralism into a coherent field — like public health — with clearly defined norms and practices that can be replicated, measured and improved.Lennon Flowers, a co-founder of the People’s Supper, told me that the gathering felt like a salve. She said the money and credibility her organization gets from the New Pluralists filter down to the local partners, showing that “this work matters and this proves we’re not alone.”But a big question remains: Can a group of wealthy donors change American culture from above? How exactly does that work? If you are trying to change a law, you hire a lobbyist. To change American culture, whom do you hire?Nevertheless, the group is doubling down on its vision. Over the summer, it put out a request for grant proposals from grass-roots groups engaged in this work. Eight hundred applications poured in — too many to fund. That’s when the New Pluralists began an effort to challenge donors to devote $1 billion over the next decade to pluralism, an initiative it announced at a White House unity summit in September.“The need is so great, and the opportunity is so great that we need more of philanthropy to take this seriously,” the New Pluralists’ executive director, Uma Viswanathan, told me.Even the most fervent of the New Pluralists admit that they aren’t sure they will succeed. But I hope they do. After all, orchestras don’t sound good by accident. People have to practice.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow the New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Imran Khan’s Supporters Clash With Police in Pakistan After Gunman Attack

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      The former prime minister accused military and government officials of plotting the attack that wounded him as political violence welled up around Pakistan.ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Clashes broke out in cities across Pakistan on Friday, a day after a gunman wounded former Prime Minister Imran Khan at a rally.Mr. Khan’s supporters blocked major highways, set fires and clashed with the police, who responded with tear gas in one clash outside the capital, Islamabad. The violence broke out a day after Mr. Khan was shot in the legs on Thursday in Punjab Province as he was leading a political rally. One bystander was killed and several others were injured in the attack.The gunman was arrested immediately by the police, and a man identified as the suspect said in a police video leaked to the news media that he acted alone.On Friday, Mr. Khan made a video appearance from a hospital in Lahore. Sitting in a wheelchair and dressed in a blue hospital gown, Mr. Khan said he would resume his protest campaign for early national elections as soon as he recuperates.“I will be back on the roads as soon as I get well,” Mr. Khan said in a long address. He demanded the removal of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the country’s interior minister, and a senior army intelligence official, accusing the trio of hatching a conspiracy to assassinate him.Mr. Khan speaking at a news conference in a Lahore hospital on Friday.K.M. Chaudary/Associated PressPakistani officials deny Mr. Khan’s accusations and asserted that religious fanaticism was the motive of the attack on Mr. Khan. And the country’s powerful military apparatus condemned Mr. Khan’s claims, saying in a statement that “no one will be allowed to defame the institution or its soldiers with impunity.”Earlier in the day, furious protesters clashed with the police in several cities. A large number of his supporters tried to enter Islamabad from neighboring Rawalpindi and were stopped by heavy tear gas shelling from the capital’s police force. Officials said protesters set several vehicles and motorbikes on fire as clashes continued for several hours, lasting into the evening.“The current situation reflects a sharp deterioration of the quality of politics in Pakistan, and it seems headed toward more violence,” said Hasan Askari Rizvi, a political analyst based in Lahore.In Lahore, protesters tried to enter the Governor’s House, broke security cameras at the entrance and threw stones at the colonial-era building. Mr. Khan’s supporters also tried to enter the city’s military cantonment area, which houses military buildings and residential neighborhoods, but were stopped by the police.Clashes also erupted in some parts of the southern port city of Karachi, where at least 20 people were arrested when protesters blocked the main thoroughfare. Mr. Khan’s supporters also blocked the entrance of a highway in the northwestern city of Peshawar.Mr. Khan was removed from office after a no-confidence vote in the parliament earlier in April. He has blamed his ouster on a conspiracy by the United States, the country’s military and his political opponents. American officials and Pakistani military and government officials deny those accusations.Supporters of Mr. Khan throwing stones at police officers during a protest in Rawalpindi on Friday.Mohammad Ramiz/Associated PressSince his removal, Mr. Khan has made a stunning political comeback, winning several by-elections, and he has demanded early national elections. But the governing coalition led by Mr. Sharif has said it would not move the vote up from its scheduled spot in August next year.The police have yet to register a case or issue a preliminary report on the gun attack, which happened in Waziribad.In the police video, the suspect was identified as Naveed Ahmed, a laborer who said he was acting out of religious reasons.“I have no regret except that I was not able to kill Imran Khan,” Mr. Ahmed said, adding that he was enraged because Mr. Khan had portrayed himself as a prophet.Mr. Khan and his supporters and other political observers say Mr. Khan has never made such a claim.During the news briefing on Friday, Mr. Khan claimed that he had been aware since September of plots to attack him. And he called on the country’s army chief to take action against what he called “black sheep” within the security services. More

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      As Israel’s Far Right Nears Power, Palestinians Feel a Pang of Fear

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      To some Palestinians, the rise of the Israeli far right can scarcely make things worse. But many fear a surge of violence.JERUSALEM — For Jewish Israelis, the election this week of a far-right alliance has left some joyful, and others with a sense of bewilderment and foreboding.But to Palestinians in both the occupied territories and within Israel’s Arab minority, it has summoned a different and contradictory blend of emotions: fear, indifference and, in some cases, a sense of opportunity.Barring a last-minute change of heart, Benjamin Netanyahu, the returning prime minister, will form a government with a far-right bloc whose settler leaders variously seek to end Palestinian autonomy in parts of the occupied West Bank, expel those they deem disloyal to Israel and make it easier for soldiers to shoot at Palestinians while on duty.One of those leaders, Itamar Ben-Gvir, until recently hung a large photograph of an extremist Israeli who shot dead 29 Palestinians in a West Bank mosque in 1994 on his wall at home. He still keeps a picture on display there of Meir Kahane, an extremist rabbi who sought to strip Arabs of their Israeli citizenship.To some Palestinians, the far right’s rise can scarcely make things worse for them. Israel has long operated a two-tier legal system in the occupied West Bank that tries Palestinians in military courts and Israelis in civilian ones; rarely punishes violent Israeli settlers; and already mounts near-daily raids in Palestinian areas — raids that have helped make this year the deadliest in the West Bank since at least 2015.Palestinians in the West Bank are subject to restrictions on their movement, almost all of them unable to drive into Israel, while neighboring settlers freely come and go. Many struggle to access their private land close to settlements and risk attack when they do.Volunteers from the Jewish Power party handed out fliers at a polling station in Nof Hagalil, Israel, on Tuesday in front of a picture of the party’s leader, Itamar Ben-Gvir.Amit Elkayam for The New York TimesIn Gaza, Palestinians live under an Israeli-Egyptian blockade that is intended to stop arms supply to militants, but severely restricts Gazans’ ability to leave or access certain medical equipment and 3G internet.For that reason, some hope Mr. Ben-Gvir’s arrival even brings opportunity: Some have long considered the Israeli state indistinguishable from the likes of Mr. Ben-Gvir, and they hope the world will now see what they see.But to many Palestinians, a far-right government, studded with lawmakers with a history of antagonizing Arabs, has no silver lining. It is simply terrifying.“I’m afraid of a very dark future,” said Issa Amro, an activist in Hebron, in the southern West Bank. “Ben-Gvir is very fanatic and extreme and, for me, a fascist. He is a big threat.”With Mr. Ben-Gvir in government, some Palestinians fear even more impunity for settler violence and even greater restrictions on their movements. They also fear that Mr. Ben-Gvir’s calls to deport people who oppose the state of Israel are a code for the expulsion of Palestinians.To Mr. Amro and the other residents of Hebron, Mr. Ben-Gvir is a known quantity — and not in a comforting way.Mr. Ben-Gvir lives in a settlement in Hebron, and has a history of confrontation with local Palestinians. A video from 2015 showed him involved in an attack on a Palestinian shop in the Old City of Hebron, pulling a clothes rack to the ground.A Palestinian vendor reading news about Israeli elections in a newspaper, in Hebron in the Israeli-occupied West Bank on Wednesday.Mussa Issa Qawasma/ReutersThe mosque massacre in 1994, whose perpetrator, Baruch Goldstein, was once feted by Mr. Ben-Gvir in his home, occurred a few hundred yards away.“I’m afraid that fanatic settlers will feel more empowered” by Mr. Ben-Gvir’s rise, said Mr. Amro. “I’m afraid that more Baruch Goldstein massacres will happen.”The mood in Sheikh Jarrah, a neighborhood of East Jerusalem where settler movements seek to evict Palestinian residents, was also apprehensive.Mr. Ben-Gvir frequently visits and champions the settlers of Sheikh Jarrah, even setting up a tent there that he declared his temporary office. His provocative presence exacerbated tensions in the neighborhood that contributed to the outbreak of an 11-day war in May 2021 between Israel and militants in Gaza.Last month, he returned to Sheikh Jarrah, brandishing a pistol and telling policemen to fire at nearby Palestinians.“Friends, they’re throwing rocks at us,” Mr. Ben-Gvir said, pulling out his handgun. “Shoot them.”Mr. Ben-Gvir says he has become more moderate in recent years. He tells his followers to chant “Death to terrorists,” replacing their previous chant of “Death to Arabs.” He still calls Mr. Kahane “a hero,” but distanced himself from the rabbi’s most extreme positions.“I have no problem, of course, with the minorities here,” he recently said in a voice message to The New York Times, after declining an interview.But in Sheikh Jarrah, Palestinian residents blame Mr. Ben-Gvir for galvanizing the groups of Israelis who have roamed the neighborhood throwing stones, and the movements that seek their eviction. They fear his rise will cause “big harm for Sheikh Jarrah and Jerusalem in general,” said Muhammad al-Kiswani, a resident of Sheikh Jarrah who said his home had been damaged by the settlers’ rocks.The Sheikh Jarrah neighborhood in Jerusalem last month, an area rife with tensions between Palestinians and Israelis.Avishag Shaar-Yashuv for The New York TimesAs they drove to Friday prayers, Mr. al-Kiswani’s 5-year-old son, Zeinidden, leaned forward at the mention of a familiar name.“Baba, is that — is that the man who had the gun?” asked Zeinidden.“Yes,” Mr. al-Kiswani told his son. Returning to the interview, he added: “Our children are developing mental issues because of what’s happening.”Some Palestinians, though fearful, predict that Mr. Ben-Gvir will do little that Israel hasn’t already done to Palestinians living under either occupation or as a minority within the state of Israel.“Our day-to-day won’t be that different,” said Nour Younis, an activist living in Tel Aviv. “We might pay the price, sure, but we already have been paying the price with any government.”Some Israelis, both Jewish and Arab, nevertheless hope this moment could also possibly bring about a better future. Jewish-led leftist parties suffered a near-wipeout in the election — and to claw their way back to influence, some hope that they will be forced to work more closely with, and establish greater empathy for, the parties and narratives of the Palestinian minority.“The days are also difficult for anyone who considers himself of the Zionist center-left,” said Aida Touma-Suleiman, a Palestinian lawmaker in the Israeli Parliament.“We need to think differently now,” she added. “This is not a reality we ever knew and it requires all of the democratic forces to work together in an effort to stop the raging right.”Others also hope the far right’s rise will bring greater international attention to Israel’s worst excesses, making them harder for the world to ignore, said Ms. Younis, the activist.“I look at the bright side — finally, Israel’s real face will show,” she said. “When this face is exposed to the international community, I hope they finally understand that there really isn’t a true partner for peace in Israel.”But others were less optimistic.The world would still lack empathy for Palestinians, with or without Mr. Ben-Gvir, said Maha Nakib, a Palestinian activist in Lod, an Israeli city with a recent history of interethnic tensions.“They don’t really care,” said Ms. Nakib. “Our eyes aren’t blue and our hair isn’t blond like the Ukrainians.”A Palestinian man looks out his house window in a refugee camp in Khan Younis this week in Gaza, which is under a joing Israeli-Egyptian blockade.Ibraheem Abu Mustafa/ReutersRami Nazzal contributed reporting from Ramallah, West Bank, and Gabby Sobelman from Rehovot, Israel. 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      Forecasting the Future of Election Prediction Markets

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      After flying under the radar as academic experiments, the markets are facing close regulatory scrutiny. But they are worth preserving, our columnist says.I’ve used prediction markets for years, never for trading but rather as a source of information, an interesting adjunct to polls, economic and political models, and traditional reporting, especially when elections grow near.But the U.S. prediction markets that allow people to place legal bets on American elections have run into regulatory problems.PredictIt, the larger of the two prediction markets operating in the United States, has emerged over the last several years as a go-to source for journalists and academics seeking to harness the “wisdom of crowds” for a sense of where the elections are heading.At the moment, the bets on its site amount to a forecast of Republican control of both the House and the Senate. PredictIt’s older and more purely academic counterpart, the Iowa Electronic Markets, is showing the same essential picture.Kalshi, a third and overtly commercial derivatives market, had hoped to start trading contracts on the outcome of the midterm elections by now, but its application has stalled at the Commodities Futures Trading Commission.The various markets — PredictIt, the Iowa market, overseas markets like Betfair in Britain and predecessors like the Irish sites Intrade and Tradesports — have had plenty of glitches through the years. They aren’t always accurate, and their results, if not interpreted carefully, look deceptively extreme. A thin edge in election polling can be magnified in these markets as a definitive advantage, but they are often fundamentally correct. Academic studies have found that they stack up quite well against opinion polls and standard political forecasts.Such markets have also provided compelling results in experiments aimed at estimating Hollywood movie box office results, improving weather forecasts and providing corporations and the Defense Department with information on security, health care and product quality control issues.They all work on the basic notion that when markets are broad and efficient enough and money is at stake, the collective information embodied in their prices is closer to the truth than the conclusions that most individuals can come up with on their own.This may well be true over the long run, but one flaw in this approach is obvious if you have been following the stock, bond, foreign exchange or commodity markets this year: Over short periods, markets are as fickle as a cat. I see no reason to assume that election markets are inherently wiser or steadier than the stock market, which I don’t trust as a guide to much of anything over short periods.Still, prediction markets are fascinating, and provide a worthwhile source of data on a vast array of subjects. They also have tremendous financial possibilities.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsElection Day is Tuesday, Nov. 8.Biden’s Speech: In a prime-time address, President Biden denounced Republicans who deny the legitimacy of elections, warning that the country’s democratic traditions are on the line.State Supreme Court Races: The traditionally overlooked contests have emerged this year as crucial battlefields in the struggle over the course of American democracy.Democrats’ Mounting Anxiety: Top Democratic officials are openly second-guessing their party’s pitch and tactics, saying Democrats have failed to unite around one central message.Social Security and Medicare: Republicans, eyeing a midterms victory, are floating changes to the safety net programs. Democrats have seized on the proposals to galvanize voters.“Prediction markets are going to be a very big business,” said William R. Hambrecht, an early investor in Silicon Valley companies like Apple and Adobe and a major investor in Aristotle, the company that runs PredictIt. “I don’t think you can overstate the potential, once the regulatory issues are resolved.”An Old American PastimeBetting on elections is, technically, illegal in the United States. But the reality is that it has been commonplace since the early days of the republic, Koleman Strumpf, a Wake Forest University economist, said in an interview.By the late 19th century, New York City had become a national center for betting on both finance and politics. Early in the 20th century, whenever elections rolled around, traders outside the New York Stock Exchange placed high-volume wagers on the Curb Market, a rollicking, over-the-counter outdoor marketplace for stocks, bonds and politics.In the current era, the Commodities Futures Trading Commission has permitted the two low-stakes markets — the Iowa Electronic Markets and PredictIt — to operate under academic exemptions.But in August, the commission ordered PredictIt to cease operations by Feb. 15. The agency hasn’t publicly explained its reasons for the cancellation, which PredictIt is fighting in the courts. One issue may be PredictIt’s popularity — the volume of betting on the site has sometimes exceeded the limits set when PredictIt began operating as an educational venture in 2014.A week ago, the commission staff recommended against Kalshi’s bid to start a higher-stakes trade in futures contracts on the control of Congress resulting from the midterm elections. The commission tends to side with its staff’s recommendations, but has not indicated how it will rule on the Kalshi case.In an email, Steven Adamske, a commission spokesman, said only: “Kalshi’s application is still pending, and I don’t have a timeline for when it will be announced.”In an interview, Tarek Mansour, a founder of Kalshi, pointed out that his exchange already offered robust trading on important questions like the future of inflation in the United States and the path of Federal Reserve interest rate increases, and that it was running an unofficial contest asking people to forecast the elections.“That’s an effort at educating people about our site,” he said. “We agree that we need regulation, and we are waiting patiently for guidance from the C.F.T.C.”The Two Election MarketsIt is possible that once the midterms are over, only the Iowa market will remain as a legal outlet for election betting. It has functioned since 1988 as a modest, money-losing “Internet-based teaching and research tool” that allows up to 2,000 people — students of the University of Iowa and anyone else with the money and interest — to place bets of $5 to $500 on the outcome of events, including U.S. elections.As long as it sticks to these unequivocally educational goals and people at the university are willing to take the time and effort to keep it running, its future seems reasonably secure.“It’s a labor of love,” said Thomas S. Gruca, the director of the prediction market and a professor at the university’s Tippie College of Business. “It takes a lot of time from a lot of volunteers to keep it going. But a lot of people are learning a lot because of it.”PredictIt is something of a hybrid. It is a joint venture. One partner is Victoria University of Wellington, a New Zealand institution. The other is Aristotle, a for-profit American political consulting, compliance, data and software company, whose founder, John Aristotle Phillips, first gained national attention in 1976 as “the A-bomb kid” — a Princeton undergraduate who successfully designed an atomic bomb in a physics class project.“It was about arms control,” he told me in an interview. “I showed that a bomb could be built, and that we needed more controls.”Aristotle does the day-to-day work running PredictIt, and the university has been playing a passive role. While the data from the prediction market at the University of Iowa is regularly used in classrooms and in research there, that is not the case for Victoria University.“We are not aware of any scholars at Victoria University of Wellington using the data, but, as they don’t need to come through us to access it, that would be a question better directed to PredictIt,” Katherine Edmond, the university’s director of communications, said in an email.PredictIt is used extensively by scholars around the world, but mainly by Americans, who are listed on its site, and have relied on it for years, as have journalists like me. In addition to filing suit, Aristotle has applied for permission to become a commercial exchange, like Kalshi, a move that would end the restrictions on its size and scope.A Modest PredictionFrom the standpoint of many economists, the prediction markets, for all their flaws, have been spectacularly successful.“There’s tremendous social utility to having these markets operate, and having this information available,” said Eric Zitzewitz, a Dartmouth professor who has studied prediction markets extensively. “There’s a lot of demand for them — people enjoy participating in them and consuming the information they provide.”Betting on elections won’t go away, no matter what the regulators decide. Such betting could migrate to overseas markets or to unregulated markets in cyberspace that are outside U.S. regulatory control.Far better, I think, would be to allow them to operate within U.S. borders as transparent, robust — and carefully regulated — operations. Until now, both the Iowa market and PredictIt have been small enough to be fairly innocuous in terms of their effects on elections themselves. When big money flows into prediction markets — as I suspect it one day will — the potential for real trouble will be far greater. Markets can be manipulated and corruption flourish, so smart and active regulators are needed to keep markets honest.That’s true for the stock market. Regulating U.S. prediction markets will become far more critical when large sums are focused directly on the outcome of elections, which are, after all, the foundation of our democracy. Prediction markets are important enough to be preserved. But elections are important enough for regulators to move slowly and carefully. More

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      A Poll Reversal

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      Republicans have swiftly gained ground near the end of midterm elections polling.In the last days before Tuesday’s midterm elections, the polls have increasingly reached a consensus on the state of the race: Republicans lead.Most pollsters over the past few weeks have found Republicans opening a modest but consistent lead when they ask voters whether they’ll back Democrats or Republicans for Congress.The results are a reversal from polls conducted just over a month ago, when Democrats seemed to have the advantage.If the recent polls are right — and they may not be — Republicans will almost certainly take the House. The big question on election night would be whether and where individual Democratic candidates could withstand a hostile political environment. Control of the Senate would depend on it.How Republicans got hereIn one sense, the new Republican strength was foreseeable. The president’s party almost always gets pummeled in midterm elections, especially when his approval rating is as low as President Biden’s, which is hovering just over 40 percent. In the era of modern polling dating back nearly a century, no precedent exists for the president’s party to hold its own in the House when his approval rating is well beneath 50 percent.But for Democrats, the usual midterm losses for the party in the White House — or even a better than usual outcome — may still be something of a disappointment. Democrats seemed to be in a fairly strong position as recently as a few weeks ago. They gained support over the summer after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade and amid rising concerns about the state of American democracy and gun violence. Some news also helped the party politically: falling gas prices and Biden’s surprising legislative successes.What is the most important problem facing the country today? More

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      Republican Secretaries of State Walk a Minefield of Election Lies

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      FAYETTEVILLE, W.Va. — Standing before a dozen volunteer poll workers gathered in an old wood-paneled community auditorium that would soon be transformed into a polling place, Mac Warner invited his audience to look at his socks.They were stitched with the hashtag #TRUSTEDINFO2020: a souvenir of a campaign that Mr. Warner, West Virginia’s secretary of state since 2017, had waged with his fellow secretaries across the country before the last presidential election, an effort to raise awareness of disinformation efforts targeting voters.“Don’t get your information from Facebook,” he told the poll workers. “Don’t get it from Google. Don’t get it from social media. Get it from trusted sources.”A former officer in the Army with the Judge Advocate General’s Corps who has assisted government ministries running elections in Afghanistan, Mr. Warner earned the respect of his fellow secretaries of state — most of whom, like Mr. Warner, serve as the top election official in their states — in 2020 for his particular commitment to fighting misinformation and security threats at the ballot box.But some of them have been more reluctant to praise him since December 2020, when he climbed onstage at a rally outside the State Capitol in Charleston the month after Donald J. Trump lost the presidential election, holding up a sign that said “STOP THE STEAL.”“It’s so important to keep him in office,” Mr. Warner, speaking of Mr. Trump, told an interviewer from Right Side Broadcasting Network at the rally.Today, Mr. Warner walks a delicate line. He acknowledges that Joseph R. Biden Jr. “was elected,” in 2020, but questions whether the election was run fairly in some states. He has worked to debunk conspiracy theories about voting machines and laments the rise of fringe views within his party. But he also compares the voting rights bills congressional Democrats tried to pass this year to the foreign influence campaigns he fought in 2020, and he blames the Jan. 6 riot at the Capitol in part on the Supreme Court’s refusal to hear a long-shot challenge to the election from Texas’s attorney general, which he supported.“I believe that’s what spurred on the Jan. 6 people,” he said.In 40 states, secretaries serve as the chief elections officer, overseeing the voting process — a role that only rarely attracted attention until Mr. Trump and his allies, promoting a range of lies and conspiracy theories about his 2020 loss, thrust it into the center of partisan politics.Mr. Trump has continued to loudly blame his loss on secretaries of state in several states — most often Georgia, where Brad Raffensperger, a Republican, resisted Mr. Trump’s direct entreaties to overturn the election. A handful of secretary of state races have commanded national political attention and spending this year as Trump loyalists like Mark Finchem in Arizona and Kristina Karamo in Michigan have campaigned for the office on claims of the stolen election.“When I ran for this job in 2019, the first question I always got was, ‘What does your office do?’” said Michael Adams, the Republican secretary of state of Kentucky. “I don’t get that question anymore.”Testing voting machines in Fayette County in West Virginia. Voting machines are often a target of conspiracy theorists.Jeff Swensen for The New York TimesRegardless of how the most outspoken election deniers perform on Tuesday, the furious political climate has already transformed an office whose occupants have often prided themselves on their remove from partisan trench warfare. At a time when Republican and Democratic congressmen barely talk to each other, secretaries of state still speak with warmth about their colleagues from the other party. They socialize over cocktails at annual meetings and exchange text messages over election law cases they vigorously disagree about.But those relationships have been tested by the last two years, several secretaries of state said in interviews. Democrats have been offended by some Republicans’ sowing doubt without evidence about elections in other states. Republicans charge that Democrats have used Mr. Trump’s election lies as a pretext to paint legitimate conservative policy aims as threats to democracy.“It’s still a good working relationship,” said Steve Simon, Minnesota’s Democratic secretary of state. “But I would say it is fraught with the realities of what’s going on outside of us.”Secretaries of state, who are elected on party tickets in most of the country, have never been immune to partisan politics. Still, “as we were approaching Election Day” in 2020, said Maggie Toulouse Oliver, the Democratic secretary of state of New Mexico who at the time was the chairwoman of the national association, “we still felt very much on the same page.”But as Mr. Trump’s election claims persisted, fissures began to appear. Democrats were dismayed to see Mr. Warner and Jay Ashcroft, the Republican secretary of state of Missouri, speak at Stop the Steal rallies at their respective state capitols in late 2020.At a meeting of the National Association of Secretaries of State in August 2021, in response to a wave of highly partisan reviews billed as “audits” of the 2020 election results, a group of four Republican and four Democratic secretaries of state drew up a resolution setting clear standards for audits. The measure passed unanimously with the exceptions of Mr. Warner, who voted against it, and Mr. Ashcroft, who abstained, and shortly after that left the association entirely in protest of the measure, which he argues violated the group’s bylaws.Neither Mr. Warner nor Mr. Ashcroft directly claims that the election was stolen. Both have instead maintained that a significant number of ballots were cast “outside of the law” in key states on account of expansions in remote voting made in response to the Covid-19 pandemic, and that these issues have yet to be sufficiently settled in court.Although many legal challenges to the election were rejected by judges on the merits, others were dismissed on technical grounds. One postelection challenge, to the use of drop boxes for voting in Wisconsin, won in the state’s Supreme Court this year.Some Republican secretaries who stood by the outcome of the 2020 election have nevertheless given credence to lesser claims, directly or indirectly. Frank LaRose, the Republican secretary of state of Ohio, has publicly rebuked conspiracy theorists’ claims about the election in Ohio, but also raised questions about “things that happened in other states” in interviews. “Could it have changed the electoral count?” he said in an interview with The Columbus Dispatch in April. “Who knows.”In December, Louisiana’s Voting Systems Commission, a panel led by the Republican secretary of state Kyle Ardoin, invited Phil Waldron, a prominent election conspiracy theorist, to testify at a hearing. In January, Mr. Ardoin announced that Louisiana would no longer participate in the Electronic Registration Information Center, a cross-state information-sharing platform used to maintain voter rolls, which had lately become the subject of right-wing conspiracy theories.This has angered some Democratic secretaries of state, who note that election officials and often secretaries of state themselves have faced personal threats as a result of the conspiracy theories that their Republican counterparts have been reluctant to check.In October, a Nebraska man was sentenced to 18 months in prison for making threats against Jena Griswold, the Democratic secretary of state in Colorado, on social media.Colorado’s secretary of state, Jena Griswold, and her counterpart in Kentucky, Michael Adams, at a conference for secretaries of state this summer.Matthew Hinton/Associated PressBut some Democratic secretaries of state said they were sympathetic to the increasingly difficult position that colleagues like Mr. LaRose and Mr. Ardoin are in. Since last year, a grass-roots movement driven by right-wing conspiracy theories has put pressure on election officials, even those in deeply red states, to respond to convoluted claims of malfeasance.Mr. Adams of Kentucky and John Merrill, the Republican secretary of state of Alabama, have both been vilified by Mike Lindell, the MyPillow chief executive and influential election denier, over bogus claims of fraudulent votes in their states, both of which Mr. Trump won easily in 2020.In solidly Republican Montana, the state’s Republican secretary of state has had to fend off efforts to gain access to voting machines in several counties by activists and Republican state legislators who had attended an August 2021 conference hosted by Mr. Lindell.As recently as that August, “we didn’t really see election denialism happening in all 50 states,” Mr. Adams said, noting that it was limited to battlegrounds. Now, he said, “it’s gone everywhere.”Republican secretaries were also rattled this spring when Republican incumbents in South Dakota and Indiana lost primary elections to candidates who refuse to acknowledge Mr. Biden’s victory in the last election. Running to replace Barbara Cegavske, the term-limited Republican secretary of state of Nevada, is Jim Marchant, a member of the America First Secretary of State Coalition, a Trump-loyalist group funded by prominent election deniers. He is leading in the polls.Mr. Adams, who ran for office in 2019 on Republican priorities like strict voter I.D. laws and regular clearance of voter rolls, has found that his record on these issues counts for little with many in the crowds he now encounters at Republican events in his state, he said.“How do you reason with someone that really thinks that Venezuelan socialists are hacking into paper ballot counters that don’t have a modem?” said Mr. Adams, who is seeking re-election next year. “All I can do is just say all day, every day, that it’s not true. And just hope that I’ll survive.”Several secretaries of state said that, as the prospect of an election denier bloc emerging among their ranks drew closer to reality, it had drawn Democrats and Republicans closer together as they openly wondered what would become of their once-convivial interactions.“It may be very challenging to have some of these same conversations or bipartisan happy hours with people who are spewing nonsense about us or demonizing those of us who are not in their party,” said Shenna Bellows, Maine’s Democratic secretary of state.A preview of sorts was offered this July in Baton Rouge at the annual conference for the National Association of Secretaries of State. During a meeting there with federal cybersecurity officials, Cord Byrd, Florida’s newly appointed Republican secretary of state, launched into a speech condemning electronic voting, according to several people in attendance. (A spokesman for Mr. Byrd said this account was “unequivocally false.”)But the secretaries also took heart when Mr. Merrill, a generally Trump-friendly Republican, offered his own experience as an election observer in Russia as testimony that paper ballots were just as manipulable as electronic voting.Mr. Merrill is term-limited, and will be leaving his post this year. A spokeswoman for Wes Allen, the Republican running to replace him, said that Mr. Allen believed the 2020 election was “conducted in a safe and secure manner” in Alabama. Asked who Mr. Allen believed had won the 2020 election nationwide, she declined to answer. More