More stories

  • in

    Brazilians Vote for Their Next President

    Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesLula, who is universally known by that name alone, has built his pitch around raising taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor. Bolsonaro has campaigned on protecting conservative values, under the slogan “God, family, homeland and liberty.” More

  • in

    A choice between two heavyweights

    Brazil votes for president today. Jack Nicas, the bureau chief there, explains what’s at stake.Brazilians are voting for president today in an election between two political heavyweights: Jair Bolsonaro, the far-right incumbent, and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a leftist former president. To help you understand the election, I spoke to Jack Nicas, The Times’s Brazil bureau chief, who lives in Rio de Janeiro.Claire Moses: Hi Jack. This is quite an election.Jack Nicas: It is. We reporters often say any given election is a big deal — but everyone here seems to agree that this one really is Brazil’s biggest vote in decades. Bolsonaro and Lula are perhaps the most prominent names in the modern history of Brazilian politics, and they come with a lot of baggage. They’re either loved or hated. People aren’t usually in-between on either.Bolsonaro is a right-wing populist who has divided the country. He has fervent supporters on the right, and the left just abhors him and wants him out. Lula led Brazil during a time of tremendous growth, but then he served time in prison on corruption charges, which were later thrown out. He’s been leading in the polls.Is it mostly political junkies who are obsessed with the election — or ordinary people, too?It’s everyone. People are wearing their political colors visibly. If you see people wearing yellow and green, the colors of the Brazilian flag, you can probably bet that they’re Bolsonaro supporters. On the other side, people are wearing red, the color of the left-wing Workers’ Party, which is Lula’s party. People are eager to show off their political leanings and happy to debate them. The campaign is kind of in-your-face that way.Beach towels are another example. You see vendors selling these towels with enormous prints of Lula’s or Bolsonaro’s face. Some of the vendors keep track of sales and post them on a sign — a sort of informal presidential poll.There have been huge rallies across the country. Just down the street from me here in the Copacabana neighborhood, thousands of people gathered last month to celebrate Brazil’s 200 years of independence. In name it was a national celebration, but in practice it was a political rally for Bolsonaro. To avoid confrontations, Lula asked his supporters to attend a different rally on another day.Towels for sale with the candidates’ faces.Ernesto Benavides/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe fact that people wear the national colors to support Bolsonaro makes me wonder about soccer jerseys. Will people still wear the iconic jerseys of Brazil’s national team even if they don’t support Bolsonaro?The national team has been the pride of Brazil for so long. But now its jersey is also a symbol of Bolsonaro supporters. How will Brazil cope with that during the upcoming World Cup in November, weeks after such a contentious election?You’ve also reported on Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic moves, such as casting doubt on the country’s voting system, despite no evidence of fraud. American readers might see similarities with Donald Trump, with whom Bolsonaro has forged close ties. Is the state of democracy as big a topic in Brazil as it is in the U.S.?It’s one of the biggest questions overhanging this election (along with a sputtering economy, rising hunger and the destruction of the Amazon). People saw what happened in the U.S. in 2020, and they know about the Jan. 6 attack on the Capitol. On the left, people are worried about a similar situation here because of Bolsonaro’s rhetoric. He was one of the last world leaders to recognize Joe Biden as the winner of the election.Bolsonaro has said repeatedly that he sees three possible outcomes in this election for him: He wins, he’s put in jail or he’s dead. Those are aggressive words that worry a lot of people. From our reporting, it appears that institutions like the courts and Congress are prepared to stand up to an election challenge by Bolsonaro. And the armed forces, which had also been questioning the voting systems, now also don’t seem to have any interest in backing a coup.The bigger threat may be that Bolsonaro’s supporters take to the streets if he doesn’t accept a loss. Many Bolsonaro supporters believe that Lula’s team and election officials are set on rigging the election. That belief doesn’t have any basis in the truth, but years of false claims by Bolsonaro have persuaded a large portion of the population.What about Lula’s campaign strategy?In a way, Lula’s campaign has been very Biden-esque. Even though Lula is much more of a leftist than Biden, he has also tried to build a broad coalition and appeal to the center. And like Biden, given his time as vice president, Lula has already spent eight years in the presidential offices. He’s a well-known face, and he’s trying to play it safe against an unpopular incumbent.We should know the result, and whether there will be a runoff, around 7 p.m. Eastern tonight. Just because Lula is leading in the polls doesn’t mean something unpredictable can’t happen here.Jack Nicas leads The Times’s coverage of Brazil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay and Uruguay. Brazilians were fascinated by his efforts to translate the Portuguese words “tchutchuca” and “imbrochável” in his election coverage — two slightly vulgar words that each had their campaign moments.For moreBrazil’s Supreme Court has expanded its power to counter Bolsonaro’s antidemocratic stances. But some experts are worried the court itself has become repressive.If Bolsonaro loses and his supporters react violently, how will police respond? The Times’s Amanda Taub looks at the possibilities.Lula is trying to complete a stunning political comeback.You can follow election results here.NEWSHurricane IanDestruction in Bonito Beach, Fla., on Friday.Jason Andrew for The New York TimesHurricane Ian’s death toll in Florida climbed, with at least 35 people killed. Officials in Florida’s hardest-hit county delayed telling people to flee. Now they’re encountering mass death.Other Big StoriesRussian forces retreated from Lyman, a key city in eastern Ukraine, one day after Vladimir Putin illegally declared control of the region.At least 170 people died after a soccer match in Indonesia as the police tried to quell a riot with tear gas. Many people were trampled.Venezuela released seven Americans after Biden agreed to grant clemency to two nephews of the country’s first lady.Congress members of both parties are experiencing a surge in threats. In the months since the Jan. 6 attack, they have faced stalking, vandalism and assaults.China’s Covid rules are becoming more entrenched, dictating the patterns of daily life.The recent flooding in Pakistan has plunged farmers further into debt with their landlords.“Saturday Night Live” kicked off its new season with a cold open that was also a commentary on the expectations it faces this year.FROM OPINIONWant less inflation? Try a consumption tax on the rich, Ezra Klein says.Putin is less a guilt-ridden Raskolnikov than a vengeful Medea, Maureen Dowd writes.When paying for an elite private school gets you into an elite college, how dare we call American education a meritocracy? Sophie Callcott asks.Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is floundering because she has nostalgic answers to modern problems, Ross Douthat argues.“It is the role of faith to counter evil.” Pinchas Goldschmidt, Moscow’s former chief rabbi, on his first Yom Kippur in exile.The Sunday question: Could Iran’s protests bring down its government?Outrage over a woman’s death in police custody, an economic crisis and Iran’s out-of-touch clerical leaders have created a serious legitimacy crisis, Sanam Vakil writes in Foreign Affairs. The Guardian’s Jason Burke is doubtful; dissent appears less widespread than in 1979, when Iranians last ousted their government, and the regime remains strong enough to crush it.MORNING READSRabbi Delphine Horvilleur, center left, in black, at a bar mitzvah.Mauricio Lima for The New York TimesMusing on mortality: A feminist French rabbi is drawing atheists, Christians and Jews to her talks on death.Well: Can supplements replace cranberry juice as a U.T.I. treatment? Experts aren’t sure.Nuclear fashion: Climate consciousness and abortion activism are on the runway at Paris Fashion Week.Sunday routine: The immigrant rights leader Murad Awawdeh greets arrivals from Texas at the Port Authority or he’s with his family.Advice from Wirecutter: Pay attention to iPhone permissions.A Times classic: Facial exercises to make you look younger.BOOKSMichela ButtignolRomance novels: Finding wonderful books that bring to mind old favorites is one of the genre’s greatest pleasures.By the Book: The Swedish novelist Fredrik Backman has learned to read while distracted.Times best sellers: “Dreamland,” by Nicholas Sparks, is a No. 1 debut on the hardcover fiction best-seller list, which also includes the latest from Richard Osman, Elizabeth Strout and Andrew Sean Greer. See all our lists.THE SUNDAY TIMES MAGAZINERuth Ossai for The New York TimesOn the cover: Whoopi Goldberg refuses to hold anything back.“Stolen babies”: Thousands of Spanish children were taken from hospitals and sold to wealthy Catholic families. This is Ana Belén Pintado’s story.Recommendation: The end of life is often invisible. There’s another way.Eat: These little coconut cakes are fluffy and perfect for sharing.Read the full issue.THE WEEK AHEADWhat to Watch ForThe Nobel Prizes will be announced this week, including literature on Thursday and peace on Friday.Canada’s Quebec province will hold elections tomorrow. François Legault, the incumbent premier, is expected to win by appealing to nationalism — without advocating for independence.The 2022 Miss USA Pageant is tomorrow. It will honor Cheslie Kryst, the 2019 winner who died in January.The Australian tennis player Nick Kyrgios is set to face a charge of assaulting a former girlfriend.The government will release new monthly jobs numbers on Friday.What to Cook This WeekJim Wilson/The New York TimesFall seems to have arrived in New York, and Emily Weinstein has ideas for autumnal dishes this week: “I made a crumble after I went apple picking and brought home a ridiculous (some might say crazy) number of apples, and I simmered kabocha squash with scallions, too.” You can also use squash for soup; this recipe is amazing.NOW TIME TO PLAYHere’s a clue from the Sunday crossword:64 Across: Candy bar whose name is an exclamationTake the news quiz to see how well you followed the week’s headlines.Here’s today’s Spelling Bee. Here’s today’s Wordle. After, use our bot to get better.Thanks for spending part of your weekend with The Times.Matthew Cullen, Lauren Hard, Lauren Jackson, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Ashley Wu contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

  • in

    The Racial Divide Herschel Walker Couldn’t Outrun

    WRIGHTSVILLE, Ga. — The race for a critical Senate seat was in full motion by midsummer, but there were just a few Herschel Walker campaign signs sprinkled around his hometown.They were planted in front of big homes with big yards, in a downtown storefront window, near the sidewalk by the Dairy Queen. There were two on the corner by the Johnson County Courthouse, near a Confederate memorial.The support appeared randomly scattered. But people in Wrightsville saw a dot-to-dot drawing of a racial divide that has shaped Wrightsville for generations — and is now shaping a critical political race with national implications.“All those campaign materials were in the white community,” said Curtis Dixon, who is Black and who taught and coached Mr. Walker, a Republican, in the late 1970s when he was a high school football prodigy. “The only other house that has a Herschel Walker poster is his family.”It may not be an exaggeration. In a predominantly Black neighborhood of small homes about a block from where Mr. Walker went to high school, nine people, including a man who said he was Mr. Walker’s cousin, gathered on a steamy Saturday in July to eat and talk in the shade.No one planned to vote for Mr. Walker. Most scoffed at the thought.Around the corner, a retired teacher named Alice Pierce said nice things about Mr. Walker’s mother and family, as most people do.“But I’m not going to vote for him, I’ll be honest with you,” she said.Fearful of repercussions in a small town, and out of respect for members of the Walker family who still live in the area, many Black residents in Wrightsville spoke only under the condition of anonymity.One woman, taking a break from mowing her lawn, said Mr. Walker would be in over his head as mayor of Wrightsville. “He’s famous to some people, because of football,” she said. “But he’s just Herschel Walker to me.”Mr. Walker, who is one of the most famous African Americans in Georgia’s history, a folk hero for legions of football fans, is unpopular with Black voters. And nowhere is the rift more stark than in the rural farm town where he was raised about 140 miles southeast of Atlanta.Mr. Walker’s hometown, Wrightsville, sprinkled with his campaign signs. Few are in the yards of Black residents, a microcosm that shows the racial divide among Mr. Walker’s supporters.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesPolls show that Mr. Walker, despite his fame as a football player, may receive less than 10 percent of the Black vote in the Senate race against incumbent Raphael Warnock. Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesSince June, polls have routinely shown Mr. Walker attracting less than 10 percent of Black voters in the race against incumbent Raphael Warnock, the pastor at Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist Church. Although Mr. Walker often boasts he is going to win “the Black vote,” surveys have found him poised to win no more Black voters than other Republicans on the ballot.There are easy explanations: Mr. Warnock, who is also Black, is a Democrat who preaches at Martin Luther King Jr.’s former church, and Mr. Walker is running as a Republican tied to Donald J. Trump.But there are complex reasons, too, especially in Wrightsville.“Herschel’s not getting the Black vote because Herschel forgot where he came from,” Mr. Dixon said. “He’s not part of the Black community.”Such feelings toward Mr. Walker have been present for decades. They are flowering ahead of November’s elections.But they took root during one seismic spring stretch in 1980. On Easter Sunday that April, Mr. Walker, the top football recruit in the country, committed to play at the University of Georgia in Athens. The signing made national news.Two nights later, after months of simmering tensions, there was a racial confrontation at the courthouse, a lit fuse that exploded into weeks of violence.The events, two of the biggest in town history, did not seem connected at the time. More than four decades later, their intersection may help decide the balance of power in the U.S. Senate.A confederate memorial near Wrightsville, the Johnson County seat.Haiyun Jiang/The New York Times‘You can’t get into shape marching’Several two-lane roads lead to Wrightsville, a crossroads more than a destination, set amid rolling hills of farms and forests. It is the seat of a rural county with fewer than 10,000 residents, about one-third of them Black.A few miles from town, one road is labeled the “Jefferson Davis Memorial Highway.” Another passes by a substantial Confederate memorial. Down a nearby dirt road is the church that Mr. Walker attended as a boy.Another road to Wrightsville passes the spot, five miles from town, where Mr. Walker and six siblings were raised by Willis and Christine Walker in a white clapboard house.The State of the 2022 Midterm ElectionsWith the primaries over, both parties are shifting their focus to the general election on Nov. 8.Sensing a Shift: As November approaches, there are a few signs that the political winds may have begun to blow in a different direction — one that might help Republicans over the final stretch.Focusing on Crime: Across the country, Republicans are attacking Democrats as soft on crime to rally midterm voters. Pennsylvania’s Senate contest offers an especially pointed example of this strategy.Arizona Senate Race: Blake Masters, a Republican, appears to be struggling to win over independent voters, who make up about a third of the state’s electorate.Pennsylvania Governor’s Race: Doug Mastriano, the Trump-backed G.O.P. nominee, is being heavily outspent and trails badly in polling. National Republicans are showing little desire to help him.The family home has been replaced by a stately, ranch-style brick one, where Mr. Walker’s widowed mother lives. Behind it is a second home, a place for Mr. Walker to stay when he visits. About eight storage buildings nearby hold his collection of classic cars.Mr. Walker’s childhood home is gone, replaced by a brick house where his widowed mother lives. A second home behind it is where Mr. Walker stays when he visits.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesMr. Walker, now 60, has mostly lived in Texas since the mid-1980s. He often comes to Wrightsville for the Fourth of July, and his cars comprise most of the parade. This year featured a new entry — a Chevy truck wrapped in an advertisement for “Team Herschel,” with Mr. Walker’s photo on the hood.The parade, just a few minutes long, takes place in front of the Johnson County Courthouse, perched on a central square surrounded mostly by empty storefronts. Banners on lampposts call Wrightsville “the friendliest town in Georgia.”But back in 1980, it was “a mean little town,” the Atlanta Journal reporter Ron Taylor wrote at the time, that “hangs at the damaged roots of all that did not grow after the sixties.”It was outside the courthouse in 1979 that the Rev. E.J. Wilson, a Black pastor and civil rights activist new to town, began organizing protests calling out the indignities of being Black in Wrightsville.Schools had been integrated, but plenty else felt separate and unequal. City jobs and services mostly went to white people. The police force was white. There was an all-white country club but no public parks or pools. Black neighborhoods had dirt roads and leaky sewers. There was still an all-white cemetery, Mr. Wilson pointed out.And plenty of residents could recall 1948, when the Ku Klux Klan marched on the courthouse and not one of the 400 registered Black voters voted in a primary election the next day.Mr. Wilson and John Martin, a local leader of the Southern Christian Leadership Conference, saw Wrightsville as a rural echo of Birmingham a generation before, with Sheriff Roland Attaway in the hardened role of Bull Connor.Mr. Walker was the town’s most famous resident, a potentially powerful ally.“There were a few times after the Friday night football games when some of the protest leaders grabbed Walker, still in uniform and pads, and demanded he join them,” The New York Times Magazine wrote in 1981. “Sheriff Attaway offered to let Herschel carry a pistol. Most of the Black athletes quit the track team the same spring Herschel led it to its title.”Protests grew through the spring of 1980. So did opposition. National civil rights leaders arrived. The Klan and J.B. Stoner, the white supremacist politician later convicted of a church bombing, rolled in. There were standoffs and skirmishes.Some civil rights leaders saw Wrightsville as a rural echo of Birmingham a generation before. Peaceful demonstrations like this one in 1980 occasionally turned violent.Kenneth Walker/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via APThe 1980 Johnson County High School yearbook honored the football team, led by Mr. Walker, the nation’s top recruit. While Mr. Walker wore No. 34 in college and the pros, he was No. 43 in high school. Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesTwo nights after Easter, the courthouse square filled with about 75 Black protesters and twice as many white ones. The Black protesters were attacked by the white crowd, and sheriff’s deputies joined in, Black leaders told reporters. No one was arrested.Violence continued sporadically for weeks. Schools and factories closed for fear of outbursts. A little girl, a woman and a policeman were hurt by gunfire. A cafe burned.In May, Sheriff Attaway and his deputies, guns drawn and bracing for a riot, rolled down South Valley Street into a Black neighborhood where Mr. Wilson’s red brick church still stands. They went door to door, arresting and jailing about 40 people, some for days, most without charges.Mr. Walker never got involved.“I’d like to think I had something to do with it,” said Gary Jordan, a white man who coached Mr. Walker in track and football, starting when Mr. Walker was in fifth grade. “I said, ‘You can’t get into shape marching. You’ve got to run. And practice is at 3.’”Mr. Walker had several other white mentors in town, including an owner of a service station where Mr. Walker worked and a farmer who had employed his parents. Another was a math teacher, Jeanette Caneega.“As a student in school, his role in society was not to solve the racial problems of the world,” she said this summer.“I don’t want to be divisive,” Gary Phillips, Mr. Walker’s high-school football coach, who is white, said, “but as an 18-year-old Black kid in Wrightsville with a lot of pressure on him, can you see how or why he might have decided that this is not the best thing for me, to start getting into this?”Mr. Walker soon left Wrightsville and rarely spoke about the episode. He declined to be interviewed for this article. In college, when he was asked by a reporter about the friction back home, Mr. Walker said that he was “too young” and “didn’t want to get involved in something I didn’t know much about.”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.In a memoir published decades later, Mr. Walker only briefly noted the conflict. But he described a school confrontation between a Black student and the white principal the year before.“I could never really be fully accepted by white students and the African American students either resented me or distrusted me for what they perceived as my failure to stand united with them — regardless of whether they were right or wrong,” he wrote. “That separation would continue throughout my life with only the reasons for it differing from situation to situation.”He added: “I never really liked the idea that I was to represent my people.”Student football players warmed up on Herschel Walker Field.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesAn Outsider at HomeToday, the school that Mr. Walker attended is shuttered behind a chain-link fence. A new school was built next to what is now called Herschel Walker Field. The complex sits on Herschel Walker Drive.Teachers, coaches and classmates in Wrightsville remember Mr. Walker’s demeanor. Polite. Humble. Kind. Respectful.People who plan to vote for him in November tend to mention those things, too. They credit Mr. Walker’s parents. Willis worked at a kaolin mine. Christine worked at a textile mill. They stayed mostly to themselves and taught their children to try to get along with everyone. “The good Christian woman that she is,” Mr. Walker wrote of his mother, “she also taught us that color was invisible.”Mr. Walker, in a family of strong athletes, was barely noticed until his junior year of high school. He was, by his telling, a chubby stutterer with so few friends that he paid children to talk to him. He was haunted by nightmares of wolves and was “petrified” of the dark and the Klan, he wrote in his memoir.He painted himself as an outsider, even in his hometown.“No one wanted to associate with me because I was an outcast, a stuttering-stumpy-fat-poor-other-side-of-the-railroad-tracks-living-stupid-country boy,” Mr. Walker wrote.In his early teens, Mr. Walker disappeared into books and devoted himself to fitness. He became a model student, a member of an honor society called the Beta Club. Ms. Caneega, the teacher who led the club, joked that she would have taught for free if she “had a class full of kids like him.”With no weight room in town, Mr. Walker did pull-ups from trees and ran barefoot along the railroad tracks. Mr. Jordan, the coach, wrapped a belt around Mr. Walker, fastened chains to him and had him pull truck tires across the Georgia red dirt.Mr. Walker won state titles in track in both sprints and the shot put and led Johnson County to a football state championship his senior year.The nation’s top college coaches crowded into Wrightsville. Some arrived by helicopter, landing on a field next to school. Mr. Walker delayed a decision for months through the tumultuous spring of 1980.“Part of that might be that he was so nice, he didn’t want to tell other people goodbye and no thanks after he got to know them a bit,” Vince Dooley, Georgia’s coach from 1964 to 1988, said.Mr. Walker flipped a coin. It landed on Georgia on Easter night.A coin? Many details of Mr. Walker’s biography bend toward fable. Until recently, it didn’t really matter. Mr. Walker was just a sports legend, spinning legends.Mr. Walker attracted national attention as a high-school football and track athlete. Residents remember coaches arriving by helicopter to woo him and watch him compete.J.C. Lee/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via APMr. Walker, as a freshman, led Georgia to the 1980 national championship and a Sugar Bowl victory over Notre Dame. He later won the Heisman Trophy, cementing his status in state history and folklore.Focus on Sport/Getty ImagesBut as scrutiny befitting a Senate candidate has grown, Mr. Walker has been found to be a purveyor of fiction and misdirection about basic résumé facts, such as graduating from Georgia (he did not) in the top 1 percent of his class (no); about the size, scope and success of his companies (all exaggerated); about working in law enforcement, including the F.B.I. (he has not); and about his number of children.His candidacy has resurfaced his 2008 memoir, “Breaking Free: My Life with Dissociative Identity Disorder,” in which Mr. Walker described a dozen “alters,” or alternate personalities. It rekindled stories of Mr. Walker’s struggle with mental health, reminding voters of his admissions of violent tendencies (briefly chasing down a man he said he wanted to kill), suicidal thoughts (Mr. Walker, who nearly killed himself in an idling car in his garage, said he occasionally played Russian roulette with a revolver) and infidelity.His post-football life, especially, has been a stream of erratic behavior, some of it described in the book. Mr. Walker’s entrance into politics has prompted stories with new details surrounding allegations that he abused and made death threats against his former wife of nearly 20 years and his late girlfriend.He has denied the allegations and often deflects questions about his past by saying that he is “fighting to end the stigma of mental illness.”Such matters have not derailed Mr. Walker’s campaign. Stamped deeper into Georgia’s collective psyche is Mr. Walker’s first college touchdown in 1980. (“Oh you Herschel Walker! My god almighty, he ran right through two men!” the radio announcer Larry Munson shouted then.)When Mr. Walker arrived on Georgia’s campus, it had been less than a decade since the football team was integrated — one of the last in the country to do so. He became a near-instant hero among the school’s mostly white fan base when he led the Bulldogs to a national championship, playing in the Sugar Bowl against Notre Dame with a separated shoulder.“Up in a private box in the Superdome,” Dave Anderson of The Times wrote from the game, “the second most important citizen in Georgia peered down yesterday at the most important. President Carter was watching Herschel Walker run with a football.”Mr. Walker left Georgia after winning the Heisman Trophy his junior year, signing with the new United States Football League. State legislators wore armbands with Georgia’s colors, red and black, to mourn Mr. Walker’s departure.It was before his second season with the New Jersey Generals that the team was purchased by Mr. Trump, then a 37-year-old New York real-estate developer.“In a lot of ways, Mr. Trump became a mentor to me,” Mr. Walker wrote in 2008, “and I modeled myself and my business practices after him.”Mr. Walker was nudged into running for Senate by Donald Trump. The two met when Mr. Walker played for Mr. Trump’s United States Football League team in the 1980s.Audra Melton for The New York Times‘Run Herschel, Run’On a sweltering summer weekday at Jaemor Farms, a large produce stand off a rural highway, shoppers fondled ripe peaches and sampled ice cream.Mr. Walker sauntered in, still fit in a T-shirt and casual pants, trailed by a loose huddle of handlers. Heads turned. Mouths opened. An elderly woman rushed to her car to tell her husband.“I’ve never seen anything like this,” said Drew Echols, whose family owns Jaemor Farms, a traditional campaign stop for would-be politicians. He shook his head and laughed. “It’s because they all know him. He’s Herschel Walker.”It was Mr. Trump who nudged Mr. Walker back to the bright lights of Georgia. Mr. Walker played 15 seasons of professional football, 12 in the N.F.L. He was wildly famous but never recaptured the success of his college career.“Wouldn’t it be fantastic if the legendary Herschel Walker ran for the United States Senate in Georgia?” Mr. Trump said in a statement released in March 2021, adding: “Run Herschel, run!”And Mr. Walker did. He appeared at Trump rallies, where he stood out for his relative lack of vitriol. Bombast is not in Mr. Walker’s nature, though he does share Trump’s penchant for unscripted, sometimes incoherent, remarks.In July, for example, discussing China and climate change, Mr. Walker said that Georgia’s “good air decides to float over” to China, displacing China’s “bad air,” which returns to Georgia. “We got to clean that back up,” he said. And in May, after the school shootings in Uvalde, Texas, he delivered a soliloquy that began, “Cain killed Abel, and that’s a problem that we have.”His public performances raise questions about why Mr. Walker chose — and was chosen — to run.Mr. Walker is widely viewed as “not being ready for prime time,” said Andra Gillespie, an associate professor at Emory University in Atlanta who teaches African American politics. “Which for Black voters, who may be skeptical of the Republican strategy of nominating him in the first place, just smacks of what they view as tokenism.”Mr. Walker, with supporters in Oscilla, Ga. He tends to draw a crowd on the campaign trail.Nicole Craine for The New York TimesMr. Walker with Black clergy members at an event in Austell, Ga.Audra Melton for The New York TimesMuch of the recent campaign intrigue has been over whether Mr. Walker would debate Mr. Warnock, who makes a living preaching from a pulpit. (The two will face off in a debate later this month.) Mr. Walker is more comfortable with small talk. A lifetime of autograph seekers has made him comfortable with quick interactions and people smiling back at him.At Jaemor Farms, Mr. Walker met in a back room with about a dozen local farmers, all white. He was flanked by two polished white former state politicians, Terry Rogers and Butch Miller, who, like human crutches, kept the discussion moving forward whenever Mr. Walker wobbled into unfamiliar terrain.Mr. Walker half-joked that Democrats wanted to force farmers to use electric combines. He reminded the group that he was from rural Wrightsville. He said his grandfather raised cotton and peas.“I used to help pick,” Mr. Walker said. “I thought it was an upgrade to start baling hay.”The farmers laughed, knowingly. Then Mr. Walker detoured into remarks about China, TikTok and Archie Bunker.Georgia’s population is one-third Black, but Mr. Walker’s campaign staff is almost entirely white, as are the crowds that gather to watch him. “The thing you can’t measure about his support is how many people he’s going to pull in that never voted before, haven’t been involved, but know him from his Georgia football days,” Martha Zoller, a conservative talk-show host and political pundit in Georgia, said.Mr. Rogers, a former Republican state legislator and now a political consultant, noted that the Bulldogs are coming off their first national championship season since 1980.“This election’s being held during football season,” he said. “I think that goes a long way — especially if Georgia keeps winning.”The allusions to Georgia football are telling. Sanford Stadium in Athens, like many major sports venues in this country, remains a place where a mostly white fan base cheers mostly Black athletes. Mr. Walker, his No. 34 jersey long retired, is a link to feel-good nostalgia for a university where Black enrollment is about 8 percent. As a politician, Mr. Walker tries to keep his messages about race in America positive. He says he is pro-police without addressing violence against Black men. He spreads unfounded claims about voter fraud but does not address voter suppression. He says Democrats use race to divide “a great country full of generous people.”At a campaign stop in Wrightsville in August, he told a room full of women, nearly all of them white: “Don’t let anyone tell you that you’re racist.”In Wrightsville’s downtown, a shop promoted Mr. Walker’s candidacy. “We need to do more to promote Herschel here in his hometown,” said the shop’s owner, who is white.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesWhat’s Left BehindChange moves slowly in Wrightsville. As Mr. Walker said of his hometown last year, “If you got one year to live, you move there. Because that year’s forever. Same old, same old.”Since Mr. Walker left four decades ago, several textile factories in the area have closed, including the one where Mr. Walker’s mother worked. So have a window factory and a meatpacking plant. Downtown storefronts have emptied.The median household income in Johnson County is around $42,000 per year. About one-quarter of residents live in poverty. The race divide has softened, but slowly. As recently as 2003, Wrightsville drew attention for being one of several small Southern towns that still held segregated proms.Across from the courthouse is a floral and collectibles shop called Kreative Kreations. This summer, its display windows were decorated with campaign signs for Mr. Walker. “Run Herschel Run,” read a larger banner over the storefront.The store owner, Kevin Price, who is white and nearly a decade younger than Mr. Walker, grew up in Wrightsville and recalled his family “packing up every Saturday morning and heading for Athens” to watch the Bulldogs play.“We need to do more to promote Herschel here in his hometown,” Mr. Price said.On a shaded bench across the street, a woman named Lisa Graddy wondered just where Mr. Walker had run.“He forgot about his hometown,” Ms. Graddy said.Exactly what she and other Black residents expect from Mr. Walker is murky. It is a combination of investment, representation, empathy and engagement.Mr. Walker still has family in Wrightsville but little support from other Black residents. Tommy Jenkins, a former high school teammate, is among the few of them who plan to vote for Mr. Walker.Haiyun Jiang/The New York TimesWhy has he not used his fame, fortune and now his political standing to raise the voices of those he left behind, they ask. It is a question raised in 1980, echoing in 2022.One ex-teammate, Tommy Jenkins, said the answer to the question was once very simple. Mr. Jenkins was among the Black track athletes who boycotted the team and participated in the protests.“A lot of people criticized him for not standing up, but I understood why Herschel didn’t do it,” said Mr. Jenkins, a Black Wrightsville resident who intends to vote for Mr. Walker. “It would’ve ruined his career.”Christian Boone contributed reporting from Georgia. Alain Delaquérière contributed research. More

  • in

    Bolsonaro podría ser derrotado. Y parece demasiado bueno para ser verdad

    SÃO PAULO, Brasil — “Si Dios quiere, seguiré”, dijo Jair Bolsonaro a mediados de septiembre. “Si no, me quitaré la banda presidencial y me retiraré”.Parece demasiado bueno para ser verdad. Después de todo, Bolsonaro ha pasado buena parte de este año sembrando dudas sobre el proceso electoral y al parecer preparando el terreno para rechazar los resultados. El ejército, de manera ominosa, quiere llevar a cabo un recuento paralelo de los votos. La amenaza se respira en el aire: el 67 por ciento de los brasileños temen que haya violencia política y puede que algunos no se arriesguen a ir a votar (algo muy importante en un país donde es obligatorio votar). Todo el mundo habla de un posible golpe de Estado.En medio de esta incertidumbre, hay un hecho al cual aferrarse: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, el expresidente de izquierda, encabeza las encuestas, con un 50 por ciento de intención de voto en comparación con el 36 por ciento de Bolsonaro. Cuatro años después de que fue expulsado de la escena política, con acusaciones de corrupción y lavado de dinero, que luego se demostró que, en el mejor de los casos, fueron dudosas desde el punto de vista procesal y, en el peor, que tuvieron motivaciones políticas, Da Silva está de vuelta para terminar el trabajo. Teniendo en cuenta las pruebas disponibles, todo parece indicar que ganará: si no el mismo domingo, con más del 50 por ciento de los votos, entonces en la segunda vuelta electoral, el 30 de octubre.Los brasileños estamos conteniendo el aliento. Las próximas semanas podrían poner fin a una época sombría, liderada por uno de los peores mandatarios de nuestra historia, o podrían llevarnos aún más a la catástrofe y la desesperación. Hay mucho que digerir. En lo personal, decidí pasar más tiempo durmiendo y limpiando la casa, mis cortinas nunca se habían visto tan blancas (originalmente eran color crema). Sin embargo, sin importar lo mucho que me distraiga, nada alivia mi aprehensión de que las cosas puedan salir terriblemente mal.En apariencia, todo parece estar en calma. Un extranjero que camine por las calles no sentiría que estamos a punto de celebrar elecciones presidenciales. Al mirar por la ventana, observo que las banderas brasileñas —que han llegado a representar el apoyo a Bolsonaro— han sido retiradas de las fachadas vecinas. Una señal ambigua: podría ser una respuesta anticipada a la derrota o la calma antes de la tormenta. Ni siquiera entre amigos y familiares se habla mucho sobre las elecciones; las líneas se trazaron en 2018 y no se han movido gran cosa desde entonces.Sin embargo, a pesar de toda la polarización social, sigue habiendo aquí un enorme apoyo a la democracia: el 75 por ciento de los ciudadanos piensa que es mejor que cualquier otra forma de gobierno. Desde el principio, Da Silva ha intentado explotar ese sentimiento común y abrir un amplio frente contra Bolsonaro. Escogió a un antiguo adversario de centroderecha, Geraldo Alckmin, como su compañero de fórmula; se acercó con insistencia a los líderes empresariales y se aseguró de contar con el apoyo de figuras importantes de centro. En este ambiente de camaradería, los partidarios del candidato de centroizquierda, Ciro Gomes, que en estos momentos tiene alrededor de un 6 por ciento del voto en las encuestas, podrían incluso dar su voto al expresidente. Si eso ocurre, es casi seguro que Bolsonaro pierda las elecciones.Esa gloriosa posibilidad no ayuda a disipar la ansiedad que envuelve al país. Es físicamente imposible no obsesionarse con lo que podría suceder. Las posibilidades son aterradoras: las encuestas podrían equivocarse y Bolsonaro podría ganar. Las encuestas podrían estar en lo cierto y Bolsonaro podría negarse a aceptar la derrota e incluso dar un golpe de Estado. Cada día parece tener la duración de un día en Venus —de alrededor de 5832 horas— a juzgar por la agitación de mi feed de Twitter.Sencillamente, hay demasiado en juego. Por un lado, el proceso democrático mismo, que el propio presidente ha puesto en entredicho. Por otro, está el futuro de nuestro poder judicial. El año próximo, habrá dos lugares vacantes en el Supremo Tribunal Federal, de un total de 11 magistraturas. Si Bolsonaro se mantiene en el poder seguramente aprovechará la oportunidad de elegir a jueces de extrema derecha como lo hizo con sus dos últimos nombramientos. Estaríamos ante una reconfiguración del poder judicial al estilo de Trump.Luego, está la cuestión del medioambiente. En lo que va del año, se han registrado más incendios forestales en la Amazonía brasileña que en todo 2021, que fue de por sí bastante catastrófico. Desde comienzos de septiembre, densas columnas de humo cubren varios estados del país. Durante la presidencia de Bolsonaro, la deforestación ha aumentado, las agencias ambientales han sido desmanteladas y las muertes de indígenas se han incrementado. Revertir estas políticas ambientales desastrosas no podría ser más urgente.Además, un nuevo gobierno podría cambiar el fatídico destino de 33 millones de personas que viven en un estado de privación de alimentos y hambruna, por no hablar de los 62,9 millones de personas (o un 29 por ciento de la población) que vive por debajo de la línea de la pobreza. También podría disminuir la cantidad de armas de fuego en nuestras calles, que, con Bolsonaro, ha alcanzado la preocupante cifra de 1,9 millones. Y, por último, los brasileños podrían comenzar a sanar el trauma de las 685.000 muertes por COVID-19.Pero antes de todo eso, hay un primer paso necesario: obligar a Jair Bolsonaro a salir. Luego, podremos volver a respirar tranquilos.Vanessa Barbara es editora del sitio web literario A Hortaliça, autora de dos novelas y dos libros de no ficción en portugués y colaboradora de la sección de Opinión del Times. More

  • in

    Lula y Bolsonaro protagonizarán la elección presidencial brasileña más polarizada de los últimos años

    Los brasileños que votarán el domingo elegirán entre dos titanes políticos, con planes e ideologías muy distintas.RÍO DE JANEIRO — Durante la última década, Brasil ha pasado de una crisis a otra: la destrucción del medioambiente, una recesión económica, una presidenta destituida, dos presidentes encarcelados y una pandemia que mató a más personas que en cualquier otro lugar fuera de Estados Unidos.El domingo, los brasileños votarán por su próximo presidente, con la esperanza de impulsar al mayor país de América Latina hacia un futuro más estable y brillante, y decidirán entre dos hombres que están profundamente vinculados a su tumultuoso pasado.Esta elección es considerada como una de las más importantes del país en décadas, según los historiadores brasileños, en parte porque puede estar en riesgo la salud de la cuarta democracia más grande del mundo.El presidente en el poder, Jair Bolsonaro, es un populista de extrema derecha cuyo primer mandato ha destacado por su agitación y sus constantes ataques al sistema electoral. Ha despertado la indignación en su país y la preocupación en el extranjero por sus políticas que aceleraron la deforestación de la selva amazónica, su apuesta por medicamentos no probados en lugar de las vacunas contra la COVID-19 y sus duros ataques a rivales políticos, jueces, periodistas y profesionales de la salud.El contrincante, el expresidente Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, es un izquierdista apasionado que supervisó el auge de Brasil durante la primera década de este siglo, pero que luego fue a la cárcel acusado de corrupción. Esos cargos fueron posteriormente retirados, y ahora, tras liderar las encuestas durante meses, el hombre conocido simplemente como Lula está a punto de completar una sorprendente resurrección política.Son quizás las dos figuras más conocidas y más polarizadas de este país de 217 millones de habitantes, y durante más de un año han estado presentando a los votantes visiones muy diferentes para la nación, cuya economía ha sido golpeada por la pandemia y la inflación mundial.Bolsonaro, de 67 años, quiere vender la compañía petrolera estatal de Brasil, abrir la Amazonía a la minería, relajar las regulaciones sobre las armas e introducir valores más conservadores. Da Silva, de 76 años, promete aumentar los impuestos a los ricos para ampliar los servicios para los pobres, lo que incluye ampliar la red de seguridad social, aumentar el salario mínimo y alimentar y dar vivienda a más personas.Partidarios de Bolsonaro en Río de Janeiro. Bolsonaro ha insinuado que la única forma en que cree que perdería las elecciones es si se las roban.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesEl eslogan de la campaña de Bolsonaro es “Dios, familia, patria y libertad”, mientras que Da Silva ha construido su discurso en torno a la promesa de garantizar que todos los brasileños puedan disfrutar de tres comidas al día, incluyendo, ocasionalmente, un corte de carne superior y una cerveza fría en un asado familiar.Sin embargo, en lugar de sus planes para el futuro, gran parte de la carrera ha girado en torno al pasado de cada candidato. Los brasileños se han alineado en uno u otro bando, basándose en gran parte en su oposición a uno de los candidatos, en lugar de su apoyo a ellos.“La palabra principal en esta campaña es rechazo”, dijo Thiago de Aragão, director de estrategia de Arko Advice, una de las mayores consultoras políticas de Brasil. “Estas elecciones son una demostración de cómo los votantes de un país polarizado se unifican en torno a lo que odian en lugar de lo que aman”.La atención del domingo —cuando un total de 11 candidatos presidenciales estarán en la boleta— no solo estará en los recuentos de votos, sino en lo que sucederá después de que se anuncien los resultados.Bolsonaro lleva meses poniendo en duda la seguridad del sistema de votación electrónica de Brasil, afirmando sin pruebas que es vulnerable al fraude y que los partidarios de Da Silva están planeando amañar la votación. Bolsonaro ha dicho, en efecto, que la única manera de que pierda es que le roben las elecciones.Inspectores del Tribunal Superior Electoral empacan las máquinas de votación después de probarlas en São Paulo. En las últimas semanas, el ejército y los funcionarios electorales acordaron un cambio en la forma en que prueban las máquinas, que según Bolsonaro no son confiables.Victor Moriyama para The New York Times“Tenemos tres alternativas para mí: la cárcel, la muerte o la victoria”, dijo a sus partidarios en enormes mítines el año pasado. “Díganles a los bastardos que nunca seré apresado”.A principios de este año, los militares comenzaron a cuestionar el sistema electoral junto con Bolsonaro, lo que suscitó la preocupación de que las fuerzas armadas podrían respaldar al presidente si se niega a admitir la derrota.Pero en las últimas semanas, los militares y los funcionarios electorales acordaron un cambio en las pruebas de las máquinas de votación y los líderes militares dicen que ahora están satisfechos con la seguridad del sistema. Los militares no apoyarían ningún esfuerzo de Bolsonaro para impugnar los resultados, según dos altos funcionarios militares que hablaron de forma anónima debido a las reglas que impiden a los funcionarios militares hablar de política. Algunos generales de alto rango también han intentado recientemente persuadir a Bolsonaro para que se rinda si pierde, según uno de los oficiales.Sin embargo, Bolsonaro no parece estar satisfecho. El miércoles, su partido político publicó un documento de dos páginas en el que afirmaba, sin pruebas, que los empleados y contratistas del gobierno tenían el “poder absoluto de manipular los resultados de las elecciones sin dejar rastro”. Los funcionarios electorales respondieron que las afirmaciones “son falsas y deshonestas” y “un claro intento de obstaculizar y perturbar” las elecciones.Bolsonaro quiere permitir más actividades mineras en la Amazonía y dice que quiere instaurar valores más conservadores.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEl jueves, en el último debate antes de la votación del domingo, otra candidata le preguntó directamente a Bolsonaro si aceptaría los resultados de las elecciones. No contestó, sino que insultó a la candidata, diciendo que solamente lo desafiaba porque no le había dado trabajo. (A continuación, ella le preguntó si estaba vacunado contra la COVID-19 —su gobierno consideró que su estado de vacunación era un asunto clasificado— y él respondió de forma similar).Da Silva ha mantenido una ventaja dominante en las encuestas desde el año pasado. Si ningún candidato supera el 50 por ciento de los votos el domingo, los dos primeros competirán en una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre. Parecía que Bolsonaro y da Silva acabarían en otro enfrentamiento, pero el reciente aumento de las cifras de las encuestas de Da Silva sugiere que podría ganar directamente el domingo.Una victoria de Da Silva continuaría un cambio hacia la izquierda en América Latina, con seis de las siete naciones más grandes de la región eligiendo líderes de izquierda desde 2018. También sería un gran golpe para el movimiento global del populismo de derecha que se ha extendido en la última década. El expresidente Donald Trump es un aliado clave de Bolsonaro y ha respaldado al presidente brasileño.Un mitin de campaña de Lula da Silva en Río de Janeiro. Si no gana las elecciones en la primera ronda, habrá una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesLas encuestas sugieren que si Da Silva gana la presidencia en la primera vuelta del domingo solo sería por un estrecho margen, lo que crearía una oportunidad para que Bolsonaro y sus partidarios argumenten que los resultados se deben a un fraude electoral.Líderes políticos y analistas creen que las instituciones democráticas de Brasil están preparadas para resistir cualquier esfuerzo de Bolsonaro para impugnar los resultados de las elecciones, pero el país se prepara para la violencia. El 75 por ciento de los partidarios de Bolsonaro dijeron a la encuestadora más prominente de Brasil en julio que tenían “poco” o ningún apoyo para los sistemas de votación.“Lo único que puede quitarle la victoria a Bolsonaro es el fraude”, dijo Luiz Sartorelli, de 54 años, un vendedor de software en São Paulo. Enumeró varias teorías de la conspiración sobre un fraude pasado como prueba. “Si quieres la paz, a veces tienes que prepararte para la guerra”.Las elecciones también podrían tener importantes consecuencias medioambientales a nivel mundial. El 60 por ciento de la Amazonía se encuentra dentro de Brasil, y la salud de la selva tropical es fundamental para frenar el calentamiento global y preservar la biodiversidad.Bolsonaro ha provocado indignación en el país y preocupación en el mundo por las políticas que aceleraron la deforestación en la selva amazónica.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesBolsonaro ha relajado las regulaciones sobre la tala y la minería en la Amazonía y ha recortado los fondos federales y el personal de las agencias que hacen cumplir las leyes destinadas a proteger a las poblaciones indígenas y el medio ambiente.En su campaña, ha prometido aplicar estrictamente la normativa medioambiental. Al mismo tiempo, ha puesto en duda las estadísticas que muestran el aumento de la deforestación y ha dicho que Brasil debe ser capaz de aprovechar sus recursos naturales.Da Silva prometió acabar con toda la minería ilegal y la deforestación en la Amazonia y ha dicho que animará a los agricultores y ganaderos a utilizar las tierras no ocupadas que ya han sido deforestadas.Con una ventaja constante en las encuestas, Da Silva ha llevado a cabo una campaña excesivamente reacia a los riesgos. Ha rechazado muchas solicitudes de entrevistas y, la semana pasada, no acudió a un debate.Lula da Silva ha prometido aumentar los impuestos a los ricos para ampliar los servicios a los pobres.Dado Galdieri para The New York TimesPero se presentó en el debate del jueves, en el que Bolsonaro lo empezó a atacar inmediatamente. Llamó a Da Silva “mentiroso, exconvicto y traidor”. Afirmó que la izquierda quería sexualizar a los niños y legalizar las drogas. Y trató de relacionar a Da Silva con un asesinato sin resolver de hace 20 años. “El futuro de la nación está en juego”, dijo a los votantes.Da Silva dijo que el presidente mentía. “Usted tiene una hija de 10 años viendo esto”, dijo. “Sea responsable”.André Spigariol More

  • in

    Brazil Faces Big Vote in Presidential Election: Bolsonaro vs. Lula.

    Brazilians voting for president on Sunday will choose between two political titans in a contest seen as a major test for one of the world’s largest democracies.RIO DE JANEIRO — For the past decade, Brazil has lurched from one crisis to the next: environmental destruction, an economic recession, one president impeached, two presidents imprisoned and a pandemic that killed more people than anywhere else outside the United States.On Sunday, Brazilians will cast their ballots for their next president, hoping to push Latin America’s largest country toward a more stable and brighter future — by deciding between two men who are deeply tied to its tumultuous past.The election is widely regarded as the nation’s most important vote in decades, historians in Brazil say, in part because the health of one of the world’s biggest democracies may be at stake.The incumbent, President Jair Bolsonaro, is a far-right populist whose first term has stood out for its turmoil and his constant attacks on the electoral system. He has drawn outrage at home and concern abroad for policies that accelerated deforestation in the Amazon rainforest, for his embrace of unproven drugs over Covid-19 vaccines and for his harsh attacks on political rivals, judges, journalists and health professionals.The challenger, former President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, is a left-wing firebrand who oversaw Brazil’s boom during the first decade of this century, but then went to prison on corruption charges. Those charges were later thrown out, and now, after leading in polls for months, the man simply known as “Lula” is poised to complete a stunning political resurrection.They are perhaps the two best-known, and most polarizing, figures in this nation of 217 million people, and for more than a year, they have been pitching voters on starkly different visions for the country, whose economy has been battered by the pandemic and global inflation.Mr. Bolsonaro, 67, wants to sell Brazil’s state-owned oil company, open the Amazon to more mining, loosen regulations on guns and usher in more conservative values. Mr. da Silva, 76, promises to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor, including widening the social safety net, increasing the minimum wage, and feeding and housing more people.Supporters of Mr. Bolsonaro in Rio de Janiero. Mr. Bolsonaro has implied that the only way he believes he would lose the election is if it were stolen from him.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro’s campaign slogan is “God, family, homeland and liberty,” while Mr. da Silva has built his pitch around a pledge to ensure that all Brazilians can enjoy three meals a day, including, occasionally, a top cut of meat and a cold beer at a family barbecue.Yet, instead of their plans for the future, much of the race has revolved around each candidate’s past. Brazilians have lined up on either side based in large part on their opposition to one of the candidates, instead of their support for them.“The major word in this campaign is rejection,” said Thiago de Aragão, strategy director at Arko Advice, one of Brazil’s largest political consultancies. “This election is a demonstration of how voters in a polarized country unify themselves around what they hate instead of what they love.”The focus on Sunday — when a total of 11 presidential candidates will be on the ballot — will not just be on the vote tallies, but also on what will happen after the results are announced.Mr. Bolsonaro has been casting doubt on the security of Brazil’s electronic voting system for months, claiming without evidence that it is vulnerable to fraud and that Mr. da Silva’s supporters are planning to rig the vote. Mr. Bolsonaro has, in effect, said that the only way he would lose is if the election were stolen from him.Electoral Court inspectors packing up voting machines after testing them in São Paulo. In recent weeks, the military and election officials agreed to a change in how they test the machines, which Mr. Bolsonaro has claimed are unreliable.Victor Moriyama for The New York Times“We have three alternatives for me: Prison, death or victory,” he told supporters at enormous rallies last year. “Tell the bastards I’ll never be arrested.”Earlier this year, the military began challenging the election system alongside Mr. Bolsonaro, raising concerns that the armed forces could back the president if he refuses to concede.But in recent weeks, the military and election officials agreed on a change to tests of the voting machines, and military leaders say they are now satisfied with the system’s security. The military would not support any efforts by Mr. Bolsonaro to challenge the results, according to two senior military officials who spoke anonymously because of rules against military officials discussing politics. Some senior generals have also recently tried to persuade Mr. Bolsonaro to concede if he loses, according to one of the officials.Mr. Bolsonaro, however, still does not seem satisfied. On Wednesday, his political party released a two-page document claiming, without evidence, that some government employees and contractors had the “absolute power to manipulate election results without leaving a trace.” Election officials fired back that the claims “are false and dishonest” and “a clear attempt to hinder and disrupt” the election.Mr. Bolsonaro wants to open the Amazon to more mining and says he wants to usher in more conservative values.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesOn Thursday, at the final debate before Sunday’s vote, Mr. Bolsonaro was asked directly by another candidate if he would accept the election results. He did not answer. Instead, he insulted the candidate, saying she was only challenging him because he fired her friends from government jobs. (She then asked if he was vaccinated for Covid-19 — his government deemed his vaccine status to be classified — and he responded similarly.)Mr. da Silva has held a commanding lead in the polls since last year. If no candidate exceeds 50 percent of the vote on Sunday, the top two finishers will compete in a runoff on Oct. 30. It had appeared that Mr. Bolsonaro and Mr. da Silva would end up in another showdown then, but a recent surge in Mr. da Silva’s poll numbers suggests that he could win outright on Sunday.A victory for Mr. da Silva would continue a leftward shift in Latin America, with six of the region’s seven largest nations electing leftist leaders since 2018. It also would be a major blow to the global movement of right-wing populism that has spread in the last decade. Former President Donald J. Trump is a key ally of Mr. Bolsonaro and has endorsed the Brazilian president.A campaign rally for Mr. da Silva in Rio de Janiero. If he does not win next week’s election outright, there will be a runoff on Oct. 30.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesPolls suggest that if Mr. da Silva wins the presidency in Sunday’s first round it would only be by a slim margin, creating an opening for Mr. Bolsonaro and his supporters to argue that voter fraud accounted for the results.Political leaders and analysts believe that Brazil’s democratic institutions are prepared to withstand any effort by Mr. Bolsonaro to dispute the election’s results, but the nation is bracing for violence. Seventy-five percent of Mr. Bolsonaro’s supporters told Brazil’s most prominent pollster in July that they had “little” or no support for the voting systems.“The only thing that can take victory from Bolsonaro is fraud,” said Luiz Sartorelli, 54, a software salesman in São Paulo. He listed several conspiracy theories about past fraud as proof. “If you want peace, sometimes you need to prepare for war.”The election could also have major global environmental consequences. Sixty percent of the Amazon lies within Brazil, and the health of the rainforest is critical to stemming global warming and preserving biodiversity.Mr. Bolsonaro has drawn outrage at home and concern abroad for policies that accelerated deforestation in the Amazon rainforest.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Bolsonaro has loosened regulations on logging and mining in the Amazon, and slashed federal funds and staffing for the agencies that enforce laws intended to protect Indigenous populations and the environment.In his campaign, he has promised to strictly enforce environmental regulations. At the same time, he has cast doubt on statistics that show soaring deforestation and has said that Brazil must be able to take advantage of its natural resources.Mr. da Silva has pledged to end all illegal mining and deforestation in the Amazon, and said that he would encourage farmers and ranchers to use unoccupied land that has already been deforested.With a steady lead in the polls, Mr. da Silva has run an exceedingly risk-averse campaign. He has declined many interview requests and, last week, he skipped a debate.Mr. da Silva has promised to raise taxes on the rich to expand services for the poor.Dado Galdieri for The New York TimesBut he did show up at Thursday’s debate, where Mr. Bolsonaro immediately started swinging. He called Mr. da Silva a “liar, ex-convict and traitor.” He claimed the left wanted to sexualize children and legalize drugs. And he tried to connect Mr. da Silva to a 20-year-old unsolved murder. “The future of the nation is at stake,” he told voters.Mr. da Silva said the president was lying. “You have a 10-year-old daughter watching this,” he said. “Be responsible.”André Spigariol and Flávia Milhorance contributed reporting. More

  • in

    Lula versus Bolsonaro: lo que hay que saber sobre las elecciones de Brasil

    Jair Bolsonaro ha puesto en duda la integridad de las elecciones del domingo y en los sondeos va por detrás de Luis Inácio Lula da Silva, quien estuvo en prisión por un escándalo de corrupción.Los brasileños irán a las urnas el domingo en una votación que ha polarizado al país y que se espera tenga como consecuencia un nuevo presidente. El elegido estará obligado a lidiar con una crisis económica, el aumento en la deforestación de la Amazonía y las dudas persistentes por la salud de la mayor democracia latinoamericana.La elección sucede en un momento clave para Brasil, en el que el aumento en los precios de alimento y combustible, así como una dolorosa desaceleración económica han dificultado la vida de muchos brasileños. En el país de 217 millones de habitantes, unas 33 millones de personas pasan hambre y la pobreza extrema ha aumentado, dando marcha atrás a décadas de avances sociales y económicos.También hay grandes preocupaciones ambientales y del clima. La deforestación en la Amazonía está en niveles que no se habían visto en 15 años y el titular de ultraderecha, Jair Bolsonaro, quien considera que la selva debe abrirse a la minería, la agricultura y la ganadería y quien ha debilitado las protecciones ambientales. La destrucción amazónica —y sus efectos en los esfuerzos para evitar una crisis climática— han convertido a Brasil en un paria mundial.¿Quiénes son los candidatos?La elección es un duelo entre Bolsonaro y Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, un expresidente de izquierda que gobernó de 2003 a 2010. Da Silva fue encarcelado en 2018 por cargos de corrupción, pero su condena fue posteriormente anulada después de que el Supremo Tribunal Federal dictaminara que el juez del caso era parcial.Los votantes buscan dilucidar cómo es que los dos principales candidatos planean abordar distintos desafíos y devolver a Brasil al camino del crecimiento.Otros nueve candidatos, entre ellos Ciro Gomes, un exgobernador y una senadora, Simone Tebet, también participan en la contienda, pero todos cuentan con menos del 10 por ciento de apoyo. El domingo, los brasileños también votarán para elegir gobernadores, senadores y representantes en las legislaturas estatales y federal.¿Qué propone Bolsonaro?Bolsonaro ha prometido a las familias necesitadas que les dará 113 dólares mensuales en efectivo, ampliando así una política temporal que se creó inicialmente para mitigar las penurias de la pandemia.La continuación del programa, que replanteó y remplazó un programa similar pero menos generoso implementado en el gobierno de Da Silva, se supone que es para “reducir la pobreza y contribuir al crecimiento económico sostenible”, según el plan oficial de Bolsonaro.El titular de extrema derecha también promete crear empleos a través de la eliminación de restricciones burocráticas, los recortes fiscales y la inversión en tecnología. En un gesto dirigido a los inversores, que lo apoyaron masivamente en 2018, Bolsonaro promete mantener su enfoque de libre mercado y mantener la deuda pública a raya. Bolsonaro ha gastado considerablemente en prestaciones sociales y apoyos para el combustible previo a las elecciones luego de impulsar la eliminación temporal de límites al gasto público.El presidente Jair Bolsonaro durante un mitin la semana pasada en São PauloVictor Moriyama para The New York TimesBolsonaro, haciendo eco de la retórica de línea dura que le ganó el apoyo de los ultraconservadores y votantes evangélicos hace cuatro años, también promete defender a “la familia” al oponerse al aborto legal y la educación en materia de género en las escuelas.Como defensor de la privatización, planea reducir “el papel del Estado en la economía” y vender las empresas estatales como Petrobras, la empresa de energía.Pero Bolsonaro también defiende la expansión a gran escala de la minería y la agricultura, si bien indica que el crecimiento debe considerar “la sustentabilidad económica, social y ambiental”.Promete combatir con mayor agresividad los crímenes ambientales, pero cuestiona los datos que muestran un aumento agudo de la deforestación durante su presidencia y sostiene que Brasil tiene derecho al “uso sustentable de sus recursos naturales”.Bolsonaro también ha dicho que ampliará las políticas de mano dura contra el crimen y promete extender aún más el acceso a las armas de fuego, una medida a la que atribuye la disminución los crímenes violentos en el país. “La legítima defensa es un derecho fundamental”, dice el candidato.¿En qué consiste la plataforma de Da Silva?Da Silva presidió una época dorada de crecimiento en sus dos periodos. En ese entonces, un auge de las materias primas convirtió a Brasil en una historia de éxito a nivel mundial. Promete devolver al país a esos días de gloria.El candidato de izquierda promete aumentar los impuestos a los ricos e impulsar el gasto público, “poniendo al pueblo en el presupuesto”. Sus planes incluyen una serie de programas sociales, como un vale mensual de 113 dólares que compite con el propuesto por Bolsonaro. Las familias pobres con niños recibirán otros 28 dólares mensuales por cada niño menor de 6 años.Da Silva también ha prometido ajustar el salario mínimo mensual de Brasil según la inflación y revivir un plan de vivienda para los pobres y al mismo tiempo garantizar la seguridad alimentaria para las personas que pasan hambre.El expresidente de izquierda Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva aventaja a Bolsonaro en las encuestas.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesComo exlíder sindical, Da Silva planea revitalizar el crecimiento y “crear trabajo y oportunidades de empleo” al gastar en infraestructura, un guiño a su estrategia anterior. Pero también planea invertir en una “economía verde”, al advertir que Brasil debe adoptar sistemas energéticos y alimentarios más sostenibles.En respuesta a las afirmaciones sin fundamento de Bolsonaro de un posible fraude con las máquinas de votación, Da Silva dice que va a “defender a la democracia” y el sistema electoral brasileño.Sobre la Amazonía, el candidato de izquierda ha insinuado que se enfrentará a los crímenes ambientales perpetrados por milicias, invasores de tierras, leñadores y otros. “Nuestro compromiso es luchar sin descanso contra la deforestación ilegal y promover la deforestación cero”, ha dicho.¿Cómo funciona el sistema electoral?Los brasileños emitirán su voto en máquinas electrónicas, un sistema que opera hace más de 20 años y que ha sido protagonista de las afirmaciones de Bolsonaro de que existe el riesgo de que se amañe la elección.En julio, llamó a los diplomáticos extranjeros al palacio presidencial para mostrar sus pruebas, que resultaron ser noticias de hace años sobre un hackeo que no puso en riesgo las máquinas de votación. También ha reclutado a los militares de Brasil en su batalla contra las autoridades electorales, lo que suscitó temores de que las fuerzas armadas pudieran apoyar cualquier esfuerzo de aferrarse al poder.El miércoles por la noche, el partido político de Bolsonaro emitió un documento que aseguraba, sin aportar pruebas, que un grupo de empleados de gobierno y contratistas tenían el “poder absoluto de manipular los resultados electorales sin dejar huella”.Inspectores del Tribunal Superior Electoral realizan las pruebas finales de las máquinas de votación electrónica en São Paulo.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesEse fue uno de los ataques más significativos contra el sistema electoral de Brasil hasta el momento. El partido dijo que había llegado a esa conclusión tras una auditoría del sistema electoral que había encargado en julio y que emitía ahora la información debido a que los funcionarios electorales no habían tomado medidas suficientes.La autoridad electoral de Brasil respondió de inmediato el miércoles. Las conclusiones del documento son “falsas y deshonestas y no tienen respaldo en la realidad” y constituyen “un intento claro de obstaculizar y trastornar el curso natural del proceso electoral”, indicó la agencia en un comunicado. El Tribunal Superior dijo que ahora investiga al partido del presidente por haber difundido el documento.Votar es obligatorio en Brasil y, en 2018, la participación en la primera ronda de las elecciones fue casi del 80 por ciento.El domingo, la autoridad electoral empezará a emitir resultados al cerrar las casillas a las 5 p.m., hora de Brasilia, y el conteo final se anuncia unas horas después.Si ningún candidato supera el 50 por ciento de los votos el domingo, se llevará a cabo una segunda vuelta el 30 de octubre. Una vez elegido, el nuevo presidente asumirá el poder el 1 de enero. More

  • in

    If Bolsonaro Loses Brazil’s Election, Will He Respect the Result?

    SÃO PAULO, Brazil — “If it’s God’s will, I will continue,” Jair Bolsonaro said in mid-September. “If it’s not, I’ll take off the presidential sash and I will retire.”It feels too good to be true. After all, Mr. Bolsonaro has spent much of the year casting doubt on the electoral process and seemingly preparing the ground to reject the results. The military, ominously, wants to conduct a parallel counting of the votes. Menace hangs in the air: 67 percent of Brazilians fear political violence, and some may not risk voting at all (a big deal in a country where voting is mandatory). Talk of a coup is everywhere.Amid this uncertainty, there’s one fact to cling to: Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s leftist former president, leads in the polls, with 50 percent of intended votes to Mr. Bolsonaro’s 36 percent. Four years after he was expelled from the political scene, on corruption and money laundering charges later shown to be at best procedurally dubious and at worst politically motivated, Mr. da Silva is back to complete the job. On all available evidence, he is poised to win: if not outright on Sunday, by taking more than 50 percent, then on the election’s second round, on Oct. 30.We Brazilians are holding our breath. The next few weeks could end a dark period, overseen by one of the worst leaders in our history, or they could usher us even further into catastrophe and despair. It’s all a bit much to take in. I’ve personally decided to spend more time sleeping and cleaning the house — the drapes have never been so white (they were originally beige). Yet no matter how much I distract myself, nothing can relieve me from the apprehension that something may go terribly wrong.On the surface, things seem calm. An outsider walking through the streets would not get the impression that a presidential election is about to be held. Looking out the window, I notice that the Brazilian flags — which have come to represent support for Mr. Bolsonaro — have been removed from the neighboring facades. An ambiguous sign: It could be a pre-emptive response to defeat, or the calm before the storm. There’s not even much talk among friends and family concerning the election; the lines were drawn in 2018 and have not moved much since then.Yet for all the social polarization, there is still enormous support for democracy here: 75 percent of citizens think it is better than any other form of government. Right from the beginning, Mr. da Silva has been trying to exploit that common feeling and open up a broad front against Mr. Bolsonaro. He picked a former adversary from the center-right, Geraldo Alckmin, as his running mate; assiduously courted business leaders; and secured endorsements from prominent centrists. In this comradely atmosphere, supporters of the center-left candidate, Ciro Gomes, currently about 6 percent in polls, may even throw their votes behind the former president. If that happens, Mr. Bolsonaro will surely be beaten.That glorious prospect does little to dispel the anxiety enveloping the country. It’s physically impossible not to dwell on what might happen. The possibilities are terrifying: The polls might be wrong, and Mr. Bolsonaro could win. The polls might be right, and Mr. Bolsonaro could refuse to concede defeat, and even initiate a coup. Each day now seems to be the length of a day on Venus — around 5,832 hours — to go by the agitation of my Twitter feed.There’s simply too much at stake. For one, there’s the democratic process itself, which has been put through the wringer by Mr. Bolsonaro. For another, there’s the future of our judiciary. Just next year, there will be two vacant seats on the Supreme Court, out of a total of 11 seats. If in power, Mr. Bolsonaro would surely seize the chance to make pick hard-right justices as he did with his last two appointees. A Trump-style remaking of the judiciary could be coming down the line.Then there’s the environment. So far this year, more forest fires have been recorded in the Brazilian Amazon than in all of 2021, which was already catastrophic enough. Since the start of September, dense plumes of smoke have covered several Brazilian states. Under Mr. Bolsonaro’s administration, deforestation has increased, environmental agencies have been dismantled and Indigenous deaths have risen. Reversing these disastrous environmental policies could not be more urgent.What’s more, a new government could address the appalling fate of the 33 million people living in a state of food deprivation and hunger — to say nothing of the 62.9 million people (or 29 percent of the population) living below the poverty line. It could also draw down the number of firearms on our streets, which, under Mr. Bolsonaro’s watch, has reached the troublingly high figure of 1.9 million. And, at last, Brazilians might begin to heal from the trauma of 685,000 Covid-19 deaths.But before all that, there’s a necessary first step: pushing Jair Bolsonaro into retirement. Then we can begin to breathe again.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More