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      Meta Removes Chinese Effort to Influence U.S. Elections

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      Meta, the parent company of Facebook and Instagram, said on Tuesday that it had discovered and taken down what it described as the first targeted Chinese campaign to interfere in U.S. politics ahead of the midterm elections in November.Unlike the Russian efforts over the last two presidential elections, however, the Chinese campaign appeared limited in scope — and clumsy at times.The fake posts began appearing on Facebook and Instagram, as well as on Twitter, in November 2021, using profile pictures of men in formal attire but the names of women, according to the company’s report.The users later posed as conservative Americans, promoting gun rights and opposition to abortion, while criticizing President Biden. By April, they mostly presented themselves as liberals from Florida, Texas and California, opposing guns and promoting reproductive rights. They mangled the English language and failed to attract many followers.Two Meta officials said they could not definitively attribute the campaign to any group or individuals. Yet the tactics reflected China’s growing efforts to use international social media to promote the Communist Party’s political and diplomatic agenda.What made the effort unusual was what appeared to be the focus on divisive domestic politics ahead of the midterms.In previous influence campaigns, China’s propaganda apparatus concentrated more broadly on criticizing American foreign policy, while promoting China’s view of issues like the crackdown on political rights in Hong Kong and the mass repression in Xinjiang, the mostly Muslim region where hundreds of thousands were forced into re-education camps or prisons.Ben Nimmo, Meta’s lead official for global threat intelligence, said the operation reflected “a new direction for Chinese influence operations.”“It is talking to Americans, pretending to be Americans rather than talking about America to the rest of the world,” he added later. “So the operation is small in itself, but it is a change.”The operation appeared to lack urgency and scope, raising questions about its ambition and goals. It involved only 81 Facebook accounts, eight Facebook pages and one group. By July, the operation had suddenly shifted its efforts away from the United States and toward politics in the Czech Republic.The posts appeared during working hours in China, typically when Americans were asleep. They dropped off noticeably during what appeared to be “a substantial lunch break.”In one post, a user struggled with clarity: “I can’t live in an America on regression.”Even if the campaign failed to go viral, Mr. Nimmo said the company’s disclosure was intended to draw attention to the potential threat of Chinese interference in domestic affairs of its rivals.Meta also announced that it had taken down a much larger Russian influence operation that began in May and focused primarily on Germany, as well as France, Italy and Britain.The company said it was “the largest and most complex” operation it had detected from Russia since the war in Ukraine began in February.The campaign centered around a network of 60 websites that impersonated legitimate news organizations in Europe, like Der Spiegel, Bild, The Guardian and ANSA, the Italian news agency.The sites would then post original articles criticizing Ukraine, warning about Ukrainian refugees and arguing that economic sanctions against Russia would only backfire. Those articles were then promoted across the internet, including on Facebook and Instagram, but also on Twitter and Telegram, the messaging app, which is widely used in Russia.The Russian operation involved 1,633 accounts on Facebook, 703 pages and one group, as well as 29 different accounts on Instagram, the company’s report said. About 4,000 accounts followed one or more of the Facebook pages. As Meta moved to block the operation’s domains, new websites appeared, “suggesting persistence and continuous investment in this activity.”Meta began its investigation after disclosures in August by one of Germany’s television networks, ZDF. As in the case of the Chinese operation, it did not explicitly accuse the government of the Russian president, Vladimir V. Putin, though the activity clearly mirrors the Kremlin’s extensive information war surrounding its invasion.“They were kind of throwing everything at the wall and not a lot of it was sticking,” said David Agranovich, Meta’s director of threat disruption. “It doesn’t mean that we can say mission accomplished here.”Meta’s report noted overlap between the Russian and Chinese campaigns on “a number of occasions,” although the company said they were unconnected. The overlap reflects the growing cross-fertilization of official statements and state media reports in the two countries, especially regarding the United States.The accounts associated with the Chinese campaign posted material from Russia’s state media, including those involving unfounded allegations that the United States had secretly developed biological weapons in Ukraine.A French-language account linked to the operation posted a version of the allegation in April, 10 days after it had originally been posted by Russia’s Ministry of Defense on Telegram. That one drew only one response, in French, from an authentic user, according to Meta.“Fake,” the user wrote. “Fake. Fake as usual.” More

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      Turkish Author Ece Temelkuran Sees a Contested U.S. Election Through the Lens of an Attempted Coup

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      Ece Temelkuran, a Turkish author, sees parallels between Donald Trump’s claims of election theft and the 2016 attempt to depose Recep Tayyip Erdogan.This article is from a special report on the Athens Democracy Forum, which convenes this week in the Greek capital to examine the ways in which self-governance might evolve.When President Donald J. Trump announced in November 2020 that he had been robbed of victory in the presidential election that month, the author and political commentator Ece Temelkuran (pronounced eh-jeh) drew direct parallels with her homeland, Turkey.“Make no mistake, this is an attempted coup,” she wrote in an editorial for The Guardian. “If it were happening in Turkey, the world’s media would not think twice about calling it so.”Ms. Temelkuran spoke from experience. She lived through the July 2016 coup attempt against the Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and left the country to avoid the crackdown that followed. Three years later, she published “How to Lose a Country: The 7 Steps from Democracy to Dictatorship,” a nonfiction book that charted a democratic country’s potential slide into authoritarianism.Ms. Temelkuran was born into a political family. Her mother was a student activist who was imprisoned after a military coup in Turkey in the 1970s and rescued by a young lawyer whom she would go on to marry.When she was 16, Ms. Temelkuran started writing for a feminist magazine and went on to become one of Turkey’s most widely read political commentators.She remains a high-profile commentator today while she lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.In a recent interview, Ms. Temelkuran spoke of the threats to democracy in the West and in her native Turkey. This conversation has been edited and condensed.Since you published your book “How to Lose Your Country,” a few things have happened. Mr. Trump is no longer in power. Nor is the British prime minister Boris Johnson, who championed Britain’s exit from the European Union. How do you view the world today?I think there’s too much optimism, and also too much pessimism. The optimists think that if they get rid of Boris Johnson or Trump, everything will be back to normal in terms of democracy — that we can just fix a few mechanisms in the democratic machine, and we will be fine after that. I think this is a deeper crisis: a cluster of crises, actually, that we have to look deeper into.The crisis of democracy is very much intertwined with the crisis of capitalism. There is no way out, unless we address the issue of social equality.Ece Temelkuran is an author and political commentator who lives in Hamburg, Germany, where she is a fellow at the New Institute’s Future of Democracy program.Roberto Ricciuti/Getty ImagesYou say democracy in its present form is dead, because capitalism is essentially incompatible with democracy. Can you explain?Right-wing populist movements did not suddenly appear in the last 10 years. We have to go back to the 1980s to understand what really is happening in the world today, especially in terms of democracy.Democracy stands on the fundamental promise of equality and social justice. Capitalism does not promise social justice. If people are not equal in real terms, meaning financially and economically, how can you promise them equality as citizens?Why do you believe that capitalism is at odds with social justice?People pretend as if the rights that workers enjoy — Sundays off, eight-hour work days, etc. — are all thanks to capitalism. In fact, whatever the working classes have achieved or earned has come after a very long and hard struggle against the ruling classes.The depoliticization of society in the 1970s and 1980s contributed to an infantilization of citizens — to their perception of politics as being dirty. This massive depoliticization contributed to the right-wing populist movements of today. That’s why we have all these masses who believe that Trump is the savior, or that Brexit will make Britain great again.Another consequence was that we were made to be afraid of words like socialism, social democracy, regulation, financial regulation. These words became taboo after the 1970s.We’ve ended up in a place where we don’t even allow ourselves to think of a better system than capitalism. It is as if the end of capitalism were to lead to the end of the world.You use the word fascism to describe political realities in the West. That word has serious historical resonance. Why use it?Because I think we should use that word. We were made to believe that fascism was buried in the battlefields of the Second World War. The version that wears boots and uniform was buried, yes. But fascism does not just come in a uniform and boots, marching in goose step. If freedom of speech, freedom of organization, and the rights of the working classes are oppressed, that builds up to fascism.In countries such as the United States and Britain, the democratic establishment is powerful enough to protect itself. But in countries where the political and democratic establishment is not mature enough, you see fully formed oppression. There is no doubt that these are regimes that we can easily call fascism — in Turkey, in India, and in several other countries.Parliamentary democracies aren’t suddenly going to turn Hitlerian, are they?They don’t need to. At the time of Hitler, there was a need to be oppressive and violent because there was a massive union movement in Germany and the rest of Europe, a socialist movement. Nowadays, there is no such thing. So why use violence? They can use post-truths or social media to manipulate people, to spread misinformation and so on.If we can shift global politics to being more progressive, then we can get rid of these movements. At the moment, the center of the political spectrum is empty. Centrist politicians don’t have a story with which to mobilize and organize people. There’s a vacuum.Take French President Emmanuel Macron, for example. Why is he there? Because everybody is so afraid of far-right leader Marine Le Pen. For the last decade, at least, voting has become a tool to protect us from the worst.This is not politics. It’s a survival reaction.Unless the center opens its arms to the left and to progressives, there is no way out for democracy in the world.Turkey was for a long time a model when it came to the transition to democracy in the Muslim world. What’s going on there now?It’s a massive form of dictatorship. But then these dictatorships do not have to use violence. Now they’re using a different political tool, which is this very wide web of political money that spans the entire country. Even the smallest sympathizer to the party is getting this money. They have a good life. If you are part of the party, or in the party circle, you have a life. Otherwise, it’s not just economic transactions that are impossible. You cannot exercise your basic rights as a citizen.There are first-class citizens who are submissive to the party or Erdogan, and the others. The others, as Erdogan has said, are welcome to leave, and they are leaving. There is a massive brain drain from Turkey at the moment. It’s another tragic story. Doctors, nurses, well-educated people, academics: They’re all leaving.What’s the way out?The way out, which Turkish political forces are in a very inadequate way trying at the moment, is coming together: for all the opposition parties, despite their political differences, to come together and, in the interests of democracy, participate in elections. More

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      Italy’s Hard-Right Lurch Raises New Concerns in Washington

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      The Biden administration pledged to work with the country’s new leaders despite worries. Several Republicans hailed the Italian election results.WASHINGTON — The Biden administration publicly reacted with calm on Monday to Italy’s election of a far-right governing coalition, pledging to work with the country’s incoming leaders despite concern about their party’s fascist roots.But the latest rightward lurch of a European country — two weeks after a far-right party performed startlingly well in Sweden’s elections — is raising concerns in Washington about the continent’s combustible populism and what it could mean for some of President Biden’s foreign policy goals, including confronting Russia and defending democracy against authoritarianism.It has also underscored divisions within the United States, as members of the Trump wing of the Republican Party embraced the rise of a nationalist whose party has roots in Mussolini-era fascism.In the near term, the political success of Giorgia Meloni and her nationalist Brothers of Italy party, which leaves her poised to become the country’s next prime minister, is unlikely to rupture relations between Washington and Rome. Nor should it hobble the U.S.-led effort to unify Europe in defense of Ukraine against Russian conquest. Although Ms. Meloni has espoused radical nationalist views, and key members of her coalition openly oppose the European Union and call for friendlier relations with Moscow, as a candidate she expressed support for NATO and the defense of Ukraine.Writing on Twitter on Monday, Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken set a tone of comity, saying that the Biden administration was “eager to work with Italy’s government on our shared goals: supporting a free and independent Ukraine, respecting human rights, and building a sustainable economic future.”“Italy is a vital ally, strong democracy, and valued partner,” he added.Mr. Blinken’s comments appeared to reflect an initial belief that officials in the Biden administration can do strategic business with Ms. Meloni, even if many of her core values, including skepticism of gay rights and “gender ideology,” clash with their own.The Biden administration also understands that even an anti-establishment firebrand like Ms. Meloni will need financial support from the European Union to survive in office — a tall order if she wages political fights with Washington and Brussels. And with Italian public opinion slanted against Russia after its invasion of Ukraine, Ms. Meloni would be hard-pressed to soften Italy’s line toward Moscow or seek to block the E.U.’s consensus-based support for Kyiv, analysts said.“From a foreign policy perspective, I do not expect a U-turn,” said Giovanna De Maio, a visiting fellow at George Washington University who studies trans-Atlantic relations. “It will be a moderate approach, at least for now,” she added.In an unsettling sign for the administration and centrist European leaders alike, however, several prominent Republicans hailed Ms. Meloni’s showing — a reminder of the growing kinship between European nationalists and the Trump wing of the Republican Party, who share a general philosophy of traditional social values, support for restricted immigration and deep skepticism of multilateral institutions.“This month, Sweden voted for a right-wing government,” Representative Lauren Boebert, Republican of Colorado, wrote on Twitter. “Now, Italy voted for a strong right-wing government. The entire world is beginning to understand that the Woke Left does nothing but destroy. Nov 8 is coming soon & the USA will fix our House and Senate! Let freedom reign!”.css-1v2n82w{max-width:600px;width:calc(100% – 40px);margin-top:20px;margin-bottom:25px;height:auto;margin-left:auto;margin-right:auto;font-family:nyt-franklin;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1v2n82w{margin-left:20px;margin-right:20px;}}@media only screen and (min-width:1024px){.css-1v2n82w{width:600px;}}.css-161d8zr{width:40px;margin-bottom:18px;text-align:left;margin-left:0;color:var(–color-content-primary,#121212);border:1px solid var(–color-content-primary,#121212);}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-161d8zr{width:30px;margin-bottom:15px;}}.css-tjtq43{line-height:25px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-tjtq43{line-height:24px;}}.css-x1k33h{font-family:nyt-cheltenham;font-size:19px;font-weight:700;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs{font-size:17px;font-weight:300;line-height:25px;}.css-ok2gjs a{font-weight:500;color:var(–color-content-secondary,#363636);}.css-1c013uz{margin-top:18px;margin-bottom:22px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz{font-size:14px;margin-top:15px;margin-bottom:20px;}}.css-1c013uz a{color:var(–color-signal-editorial,#326891);-webkit-text-decoration:underline;text-decoration:underline;font-weight:500;font-size:16px;}@media only screen and (max-width:480px){.css-1c013uz a{font-size:13px;}}.css-1c013uz a:hover{-webkit-text-decoration:none;text-decoration:none;}How Times reporters cover politics. We rely on our journalists to be independent observers. So while Times staff members may vote, they are not allowed to endorse or campaign for candidates or political causes. This includes participating in marches or rallies in support of a movement or giving money to, or raising money for, any political candidate or election cause.Learn more about our process.Mike Pompeo, President Donald J. Trump’s secretary of state, who is of Italian heritage, also tweeted his congratulations. “Italy deserves and needs strong conservative leadership,” he wrote. “Buona Fortuna!”After Mr. Trump derided the European Union and clashed with longtime U.S. allies like Germany and France over foreign policy, Mr. Biden has worked to restore relations between America and Europe. That effort was accelerated by Russia’s invasion of Europe.But the shock wave from Italy is a reminder of Europe’s volatile politics and the threat they pose to the established, U.S.-backed order.The ascent of Ms. Meloni’s coalition also deals a blow to a central theme of Mr. Biden’s presidency: the effort to defend democracy and reject authoritarianism abroad. Europe’s right-wing parties have shown authoritarian tendencies in power, with conservatives in nations like Poland and Hungary cracking down on press freedom, an independent judiciary and other checks on central power.Europe’s far right may see greater opportunity in the months ahead, analysts said, as the continent stumbles toward winter amid soaring energy prices and other forms of inflation that many economists predict will produce a recession. Mr. Blinken and other administration officials have warned that winter will test Europe’s resolve on Ukraine, as analysts worry that economic pain could shift public anger away from President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia and toward the continent’s establishment leaders.“In the coming months, our unity and sovereignty will be tested with pressure on energy supplies and the soaring cost of living, caused by Russia’s war,” Mr. Blinken warned during a stop in Brussels this month.Daniel Baer, the director of the Europe program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that if economic conditions grew much worse, they could “drive populist strains on established democracies the way the 2008 financial crisis did.”Mr. Biden has worked with a set of strongly pro-American, internationalist leaders in Europe’s major capitals. France and Germany, along with Britain, have largely been in sync with Mr. Biden’s agenda. Italy was governed for nearly all of the Biden presidency by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, an economist who prioritized Italy’s international integration. Mr. Draghi’s resignation this summer triggered Sunday’s election.Mr. Baer noted that hard-right candidates had fizzled in two major elections over the past year. In April, the centrist French president, Emmanuel Macron, defeated his nationalist challenger, Marine Le Pen, and the moderate Olaf Scholz emerged from Germany’s elections last fall.Since then, the far-right Sweden Democrats won the second-largest share of the country’s vote, Ms. Meloni is poised to lead Italy once a government is formed there and Spain’s Vox party continues to gather momentum.“The sighs of relief that a lot of people breathed when Scholz was elected and Le Pen lost — was that premature?” Mr. Baer asked. More

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      ¿El máximo tribunal de Brasil se extralimita en su defensa de la democracia?

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      El principal contrapeso al poder del presidente Jair Bolsonaro ha sido el Supremo Tribunal Federal de Brasil. Ahora muchos temen que el organismo se convierta en una amenaza.RÍO DE JANEIRO — El chat grupal en WhatsApp era una especie de vestidor de gimnasio para decenas de los más grandes empresarios de Brasil. Estaba un magnate de centros comerciales, el fundador de una tienda de ropa para surfear y el multimillonario de la tienda departamental más conocida de Brasil. Se quejaban de la inflación, enviaban memes y, a veces, compartían opiniones incendiarias.El Times More

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      Italy’s Giorgia Meloni Is Extreme, but She’s no Tyrant

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      ROME — It happened here, again. Nearly 100 years since the March on Rome, Italy on Sunday voted in a right-wing coalition headed by a party directly descended from Benito Mussolini’s fascist regime.This is, to put it mildly, concerning. Yet the most pervasive worry is not that Giorgia Meloni’s Brothers of Italy party will reinstitute fascism in Italy — whatever that would mean. It’s that a government led by her will transform Italy into an “electoral autocracy,” along the lines of Viktor Orban’s Hungary. During the campaign, the center-left Democratic Party — Brothers of Italy’s main opponent — obsessively invoked Hungary as Italy’s destiny under Ms. Meloni’s rule. The contest, they repeated, was one between democracy and authoritarianism.In the end, the Democrats’ anguished “alarm for democracy” failed to persuade voters: At an early reckoning, the party took 19 percent against the Brothers of Italy’s 26 percent. There are many reasons for that. One surely is that the picture they drew of Ms. Meloni, as a would-be tyrant taking an ax to Italian democracy and ushering in an era of illiberalism, was unconvincing. For all the rhetorical radicalism and historic extremism of her party, the fact remains that it will not be operating in circumstances of its choosing. Tethered to the European Union and constrained by Italy’s political system, Ms. Meloni won’t have much room to maneuver. She couldn’t turn Rome into Budapest even if she wanted to.The major bulwark against autocracy in Italy can be summed up in one word: Europe. Our fragile economy — set to grow, in a best-case scenario sketched out by the International Monetary Fund, only 0.7 percent in 2023 — is heavily dependent on European institutions. Beyond the usual web of economic ties, the country is the biggest beneficiary of a European Commission-led recovery fund set to disperse in the next four years over 200 billion euros, or $195 billion, in grants and loans. Crucially, this economy-saving aid, without which the country may well spiral into recession, is conditional on respecting democratic norms. Any step down an Orban-like path would imperil Italy’s entire economy, surely a no-go for the new government.Playing by European rules wouldn’t be as big a concession as it might seem. After all, Brothers of Italy over the years has progressively tempered its euroskeptic instincts. In 2014, Ms. Meloni announced that “the time has come to tell Europe that Italy must leave the eurozone.” The party, she pledged, would pursue “a unilateral withdrawal” from the monetary union, and in 2018 she sponsored a bill to remove references to the bloc from the Italian Constitution. Yet as the prospect of power came closer, those goals dropped off the party’s agenda. “I don’t think Italy needs to leave the eurozone and I believe the euro will stay,” Ms. Meloni conceded last year.Giorgia Meloni is likely to be Italy’s next prime minister.Antonio Masiello/Getty ImagesOn foreign policy, too, Ms. Meloni is aligned with the dominant view on the continent. Formerly friendly with President Vladimir Putin of Russia — she asked the Italian government to withdraw its support of sanctions in the wake of Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and congratulated Mr. Putin on his no-doubt fraudulent re-election in 2018 — she has, since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, reinvented herself as a torchbearer of Atlanticism and a staunch supporter of NATO. She is now a major proponent of a Europe-wide price cap on gas, the continent’s most potent economic weapon against Mr. Putin (and a measure, incidentally, so far opposed by Hungary). Whether opportunistic or sincere, such moves signal how ready Ms. Meloni is to occupy a conventional, Europe-friendly position, placating international partners and investors alike.Then there’s the country itself. For a start, the right-wing coalition — which also includes the League party and Forza Italia — fell short of the two-thirds majority in Parliament that would have allowed it to modify the Constitution without recourse to a popular vote. Ms. Meloni’s dream of turning Italy’s parliamentary democracy into a presidential system, which critics saw as the first step toward a perilous extension of executive power, is already ruled out.Managing the fractious government coalition won’t be easy, either. On one side, there’s Matteo Salvini, the ebullient leader of the League. Resentful of Ms. Meloni’s rise — which has come at his expense — and adamantly pro-Putin, he could cause endless trouble. On the other, there’s Silvio Berlusconi, who has already warned his partners that Forza Italia “will break with the government if it takes an anti-E.U. line.” In this quarrelsome setting, it will be extremely hard for Ms. Meloni to push through any truly disruptive policies. If she does, the already audible calls to reinstate Mario Draghi, who led the national unity government that fell in July, will grow louder.Italy’s notoriously volatile political environment is also balanced by democratic institutions designed to foster stability and prevent authoritarian backsliding. The decentralized system is made of 20 semiautonomous regions and nearly 8,000 municipalities, firewalls to rein in centralized power. The Constitutional Court, whose general legitimacy has never been in question, is fairly independent from political influence, and the justice system recently went through a comprehensive, E.U.-driven reform. Any attempt by Ms. Meloni to arrogate powers to herself would be stoutly opposed.To be sure, there are genuine reasons for concern. Ms. Meloni is the first post-fascist leader to win a national election in Italy after World War II, and her party is the heir of the Italian Social Movement, the reincarnation of the long-dissolved and constitutionally banned Fascist Party. The process of “de-demonization” that Brothers of Italy went through, including openly repudiating the fascist tradition, hasn’t quashed the deeply rooted connections with neo-fascist circles. Party officials have often been caught mingling and doing business with the sketchiest far-right groups around.What’s more, Ms. Meloni’s sympathies, if not her present political orientation, lie with Europe’s illiberals. As recently as Sept. 15, she led her party to vote against a European resolution censoring Mr. Orban, and she is a close ally of Poland’s ruling Law and Justice party, which is embroiled in a fierce rule-of-law dispute with the European Commission over government control of the judiciary. Her platform — militantly anti-migrant, socially reactionary and steeped in a culture of clientelism and tribalism — is unmistakably nativist and radical.All this, of course, is problematic. But not all problems lead to autocracy.Mattia Ferraresi (@mattiaferraresi) is the managing editor of the Italian newspaper Domani.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Is It the Gas Prices, Stupid?

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      A simpler explanation for a Democratic turnaround.Democratic fortunes have improved markedly over the last few months, with the party overtaking Republicans on the generic congressional ballot in the aftermath of the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade.But there’s another, simpler explanation for a Democratic turnaround, one that lines up nearly as well as abortion: gas prices.The price of gas fell for 98 straight days beginning June 14 — 10 days before the court’s Dobbs decision on Roe. At the time, the average price of gas nationally was over $5 per gallon. Prices were at $3.67 by the end of the streak.While few would dispute that the Dobbs decision helped energize Democratic voters, it seems clear that falling gas prices have helped as well. After all, voters say that the economy and inflation — not abortion — are the most important issues facing the country. There’s a longstanding relationship between economic performance and the president’s standing. As James Carville once said: It’s the economy, stupid.So is it the gas prices, stupid? It’s hard not to wonder after looking at this chart by my colleague Francesca Paris.Tracking Biden’s approval and gas prices More

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      Giorgia Meloni's Election Win in Italy: Here’s What To Know

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      Giorgia Meloni, leader of the hard-right Brothers of Italy, looked set to become prime minister after her party garnered more votes than any other.After a historic national election in Italy, nearly complete election results on Monday showed a clear victory for a right-wing coalition led by a party descended from the remnants of fascism. The impressive showing for that party — the highest of any single party — made it almost certain that Giorgia Meloni, its leader, would become Italy’s first female prime minister.The right-wing coalition won 44 percent of the votes across the country, while the left, which failed to cobble together a significant alliance, barely surpassed 26 percent. Those results would give the right the ability to govern without help from the opposition.Giorgia Meloni holding a sign reading “Thank you Italy” at a news conference on Monday. She is almost certain to become Italy’s first female prime minister.Gianni Cipriano for The New York TimesItaly will not have a new government for weeks, though, as the system requires the newly elected Parliament to be seated before negotiations on who becomes prime minister. A new government should be installed by the end of October or early November, analysts said.The country’s hard turn to the right has sent shock waves across Europe after a period of stability in Italy led by Mario Draghi, the centrist technocrat who resigned as prime minister in July. Mr. Draghi directed some 190 billion euros, about $184 billion, in Covid recovery funds to modernize the country and helped lead Europe’s strong response to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.But on Monday, European analysts said that Ms. Meloni, who has a long record of bashing the European Union and international bankers, did not represent an immediate economic or political threat to the bloc. They said that the real risk was for Italy, noting that the nation would likely lose the influence it exercised under Mr. Draghi, going from a leading country to one that Europe watches anxiously.Here’s what to know about the landmark vote.Key Points From Italy’s Election ResultsSome familiar names are back: Berlusconi and Salvini.The Five Star Movement was resurgent.The center-left was split, and suffered for it.Turnout hit a record low.The majority looks strong, and maybe even stable.Some familiar names are back: Berlusconi and Salvini.One vote out of every four cast was for the hard-right Brothers of Italy, known for its anti-immigrant policies, nationalist views and focus on “traditional” families. The party managed to multiply its support more than sixfold, to 26 percent in Sunday’s election, from 4 percent in 2018. Ms. Meloni’s party is now the largest in the country and the strongest within the coalition.In an early-morning speech from an upscale Roman hotel, Ms. Meloni said that Italians’ indication was “clear” for a government “led by Brothers of Italy,” an apparent signal that she expected her coalition partners to support her for prime minister.Before the election, Matteo Salvini of the nationalist League party; and Silvio Berlusconi, the four-time former prime minister and leader of Forza Italia — her main partners in the coalition — had been ambivalent about clearly designating her the top candidate for prime minister.Ms. Meloni at a rally on Thursday in Rome with her right-wing coalition partners Matteo Salvini, left; Silvio Berlusconi, center; and Maurizio Lupi.Roberto Monaldo/LaPresse, via Associated PressBut the League party, which sought to expand from its northern, business-oriented base to a nationalist party on the strength of an anti-migrant appeal, had such a poor showing on Sunday that analysts said it was unlikely to be able to argue about who gets to lead the country. The party won less than 9 percent of the vote, about half of what it obtained in 2018, hemorrhaging support especially in its stronghold in the northern regions.Ms. Meloni’s party devoured the League’s support, leaving Mr. Salvini’s leverage, and even leadership, in doubt. Some representatives of the League have started calling for his resignation.Mr. Berlusconi, positioning himself as the most moderate partner in the coalition, should hold on to his influence even though his party also lost support. Forza Italia took 8 percent in this election, compared with 14 percent in 2018. In 2001, the party had 29 percent.The Five Star Movement was resurgent.One of the surprises in the vote was the performance of the Five Star Movement, the once anti-establishment party that was part of the coalitions that governed Italy for more than four years from 2018 until earlier this year.The party had been struggling because of internal divisions and lackluster showings in opinion polls. But after it prompted the collapse of Mr. Draghi’s government, it managed to gain 15 percent of the votes on Sunday, becoming the third-largest party, after Brothers of Italy and the center-left Democratic Party, which took 19 percent.Giuseppe Conte, the Five Star Movement’s leader and a former prime minister, campaigned largely on the citizens’ income, a subsidy for unemployed, low-income Italians that has split the electorate. Five Star introduced the program in 2019, and it has been very popular in Italy’s poorer south. But many of Ms. Meloni’s supporters are against the subsidy, and she has said in the past that she wants to abolish the program.Giuseppe Conte, leader of the Five Star Movement, speaking in Volturara Appula, Italy, this month. His party took 15 percent of the vote, a showing that surprised many.Franco Cautillo/EPA, via ShutterstockAt a news conference in the early hours of Monday, Mr. Conte spoke of his party’s “great comeback,” which he deemed “very significant.”The center-left was split, and suffered for it.The Democratic Party won 19 percent of the vote, losing support even in historical bastions of Italy’s left.After the defeat, Enrico Letta, the party’s leader, said, “Our opposition will be strong and intransigent.”Enrico Letta, leader of the Democratic Party, leaving a polling station in Rome on Sunday. He was accused of leading a campaign lacking in substance and based on fear of the right.Fabio Frustaci/EPA, via ShutterstockBut he also announced that he was not going to run for the party’s leadership next year. He has been accused of leading a campaign lacking in substance and based on fear of the right.The Democrats, for decades the largest party in the center-left, have failed to build durable alliances. In this election, as in previous ones, they were able to build a coalition only with smaller, pro-European, environmentalist and more extreme leftist parties. In recent years, some of the Democratic Party’s former leaders have broken away and founded their own parties, draining support.Governing the country with other political forces for the past 10 years, and in Mr. Draghi’s unity government, did not help the party, Mr. Letta said.Turnout hit a record low.Voters went to the polls in record-low numbers. Only 64 percent of eligible voters cast ballots on Sunday, nine percentage points lower than in 2018. In the southern region of Calabria, only 50 percent voted.“Italians are disillusioned with politics,” Giovanni Orsina, director of the school of government at Luiss Guido Carli University in Rome, said on a national news channel on Monday. “The largest party in Italy are those who didn’t vote. It’s a strong message.”A polling station in Rome on Saturday. Only 64 percent of eligible voters cast ballots in the election.Gianni Cipriano for The New York TimesThe numbers are striking in a country that is used to relatively high turnout. Voter participation had hovered around 90 percent after World War II, but in the 1980s, the figure started falling. Still, the numbers from this election were especially low; in 2018, almost 73 percent of eligible voters cast ballots.The majority looks strong, and maybe even stable.The results will hand the right-wing coalition a strong majority in seats in both the lower house and in the Senate, allowing it to govern without much consent or support from the opposition, which is likely to be quite fractured.It was not immediately clear whether the coalition would have the overwhelming number of seats — a two-thirds majority — in Parliament that would allow it to change the Constitution and veer toward making Italy a presidential republic, a long-sought goal of the right. Analysts said that it was unlikely the coalition would surpass that threshold, however.The lower house of the Italian Parliament in July, when Mario Draghi resigned as prime minister. The right-wing coalition will have a majority in both that chamber and in the Senate.Remo Casilli/ReutersThe coalition partners also have substantial differences of opinion on domestic and foreign policy. Ms. Meloni has supported Ukraine and backed Mr. Draghi’s strong stance against Russia, while her coalition partners, such as Mr. Berlusconi, have signaled admiration for President Vladimir V. Putin and criticized sanctions against Moscow, saying they are damaging to the Italian economy. More