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      Your Thursday Briefing: Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping Likely to Meet

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      Plus India’s growing economy and China’s “zero-Covid” trap.“I hope to see Chairman Xi Jinping soon,” Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, said.Pool photo by Greg BakerPutin and Xi are expected to meetVladimir Putin, Russia’s leader, said yesterday that he expected to meet next week with Xi Jinping, his counterpart in China.Putin will attend a gathering of Asian leaders in Uzbekistan on Sept. 15 and 16. Chinese officials did not immediately confirm that Xi would attend; he has not left China since the start of the coronavirus pandemic in 2020. But Russia’s ambassador to China described the session as the leaders’ “first full-fledged summit during the pandemic.”An in-person conversation could help the Kremlin expand its strengthening partnership with China. Russia reoriented its economy toward Asia after European and American countries severed economic ties with Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine.Context: Putin said he also hoped to have a joint meeting with the president of Mongolia, where Russia is considering building a natural gas pipeline that would reach China.Diplomacy: Beijing has not endorsed the invasion, but it has echoed Kremlin talking points in describing the U.S. as the “main instigator” of the conflict and provided Russia with much-needed economic support. Russia has offered geopolitical backing to China, including in the escalating tensions around Taiwan.Other updates:In a speech, Putin appeared to brush off the toll of the war, which U.S. officials estimate has killed or wounded 80,000 Russian soldiers. “We have not lost anything and will not lose anything,” he said.European countries are growing more confident that they can move away from Russia’s fossil fuels. Yesterday, the European Commission said it would ask countries to approve a price cap on Russian gas.Despite the war, daily life in Moscow seems almost unchanged.India’s economy must support 1.4 billion people.Atul Loke for The New York TimesIndia’s resilient economyIndia’s government expects the economy to grow 7 percent or more this year. That’s more than double the projections for global growth, which has slowed sharply as major economies stall.The rapid expansion partly reflects the depths to which the economy had fallen during the most devastating shocks of the pandemic, which forced an exodus of laborers from cities. It also reflects the nature of India’s economy, which is partially insulated from global trends because it is driven more by local demand than exports.Many also credit a suite of government policies — including increased public investment, relief to debtors and credit guarantees — which have helped keep inflation relatively in check and cushion the public from economic shocks. And discounted oil from Russia, against the wishes of Western allies, have helped buffer rising energy prices.The State of the WarZaporizhzhia Nuclear Plant: After United Nations inspectors visited the Russian-controlled facility last week amid continuing shelling and fears of a looming nuclear catastrophe, the organization released a report calling for Russia and Ukraine to halt all military activity around the complex.An Expanding Military: Though President Vladimir V. Putin ordered a sharp increase in the size of Russia’s armed forces, he seems reluctant to declare a draft. Here is why.Russia’s Military Supplies: According to newly declassified American intelligence, Russia is buying millions of artillery shells and rockets from North Korea — a sign that global sanctions have severely restricted its supply chains and forced Moscow to turn to pariah states.Far From the War: Though much of Russia’s effort on the battlefield has not gone as Mr. Putin had planned, at home he has mostly succeeded in shielding Russians from the hardships of war — no draft, no mass funerals, no feelings of loss or conflict.Data: India’s economy is now the fifth largest economy in the world. It surpassed Britain, its former colonizer.Challenges: India’s economy remains unable to create enough jobs for the waves of educated young people who enter the labor force each year, and its growth remains top-heavy, analysts said. Growth is projected to slow next year to about 6 percent.In Chengdu, roads were nearly empty as a lockdown continued.CNS, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesChina’s “zero Covid” bindAlmost every country in the world has moved past Covid restrictions. But tens of millions of people in China are again under some form of lockdown as the country continues its total commitment to fighting the coronavirus.Economic and social costs are mounting. Youth unemployment reached a record 20 percent in August, according to official statistics. But Beijing has backed itself into a corner.It has repeatedly prioritized politics over science: China has been relying only on homegrown vaccines, which are less effective than foreign ones. And buoyed by its early success at containment, Beijing was slow to encourage shots, leaving a disproportionate number of older people unvaccinated.Since few Chinese people have natural immunity, the risks of loosening controls may be even higher. “That sort of makes the zero-Covid policy self-sustaining,” a senior fellow for global health at the Council on Foreign Relations said.Politics: Xi Jinping, the country’s leader, has tied support for the “zero Covid” policy to support for the Communist Party, ahead of a meeting in October where he is all but assured to extend his rule.THE LATEST NEWSNatural Disasters in AsiaXi Jinping, China’s leader, personally ordered that the government will “spare no effort to rescue” people.Ye Xiaolong/Xinhua, via Associated PressThe death toll from the earthquake in southwestern China has risen to 74, The Associated Press reports. People in Chengdu, which is under lockdown, were prevented from leaving their homes even as their buildings shook.At least 10 people died after Typhoon Hinnamnor hit South Korea, BBC reports.Flooding in Pakistan damaged Mohenjo-daro, a UNESCO World Heritage site that is at least 4,500 years old, The South China Morning Post reports. Reuters reports that Shehbaz Sharif, the prime minister, said some areas look “like a sea.”Other Asia and Pacific NewsFive speech therapists in Hong Kong were found guilty of sedition, Reuters reports. Authorities said they planned to publish anti-government children’s books.At least 32 people died in a fire in a karaoke parlor in Vietnam, BBC reports.Archaeologists found a 31,000-year-old skeleton in Borneo, which appeared to have the earliest known evidence of surgery, The Guardian reports.The Japanese yen continues to slide, Bloomberg reports. It is on track for its worst year on record.Around the World“It is great to be back,” Barack Obama said at the ceremony.Doug Mills/The New York TimesThe White House unveiled the long-delayed official portraits of Barack and Michelle Obama.Liz Truss, Britain’s new prime minister, is assembling a racially diverse but ideologically uniform cabinet. Most are conservatives loyal to her.France expelled a Moroccan imam accused of hate speech after a legal fight and debate over civil liberties.What Else Is Happening“I feel like I’ve let so many people down,” Nick Kyrgios said. Julian Finney/Getty ImagesNick Kyrgios, the temperamental Australian, lost at the U.S. Open after beating Daniil Medvedev, the top seed.Apple unveiled its new iPhone and expanded its line of smartwatches.Jaap van Zweden, the New York Philharmonic’s music director, will lead the Seoul Philharmonic Orchestra.A Morning ReadPresident Xi Jinping, in his trademark blue wind jacket with oversize trousers, has not been seen as a fashion influencer. Until now.Li Xueren/Xinhua, via Associated PressYoung men in China are donning an understated, middle-aged “office and bureau style”: Oversized trousers, dull colors, maybe a small briefcase.Some trend followers may be poking fun at China’s conformity. But others are earnest: They say that the unabashedly conservative look suggests a stable career path and a respectable lifestyle — sort of a Communist Party version of preppy.Lives lived: Dr. Ronald Glasser, a U.S. Army physician, wrote the acclaimed book “365 Days” about wounded soldiers. He died last month at 83.ARTS AND IDEASBooker finalistsSix novels have been named finalists for this year’s Booker Prize. Several of them use humor to address painful chapters of history: In “Glory,” the Zimbabwean author NoViolet Bulawayo writes about the fall of an African dictator from the perspective of talking animals. Percival Everett’s story of Black detectives, “The Trees,” lampoons the inescapable nature of American racism.The authors come from four continents and have a wide range of styles — from quiet, introspective fiction to fantasy. “The prize is a moment for everyone to pause and to marvel at what English as a language can actually do,” Neil MacGregor, the chair of this year’s judges, said.Read more about the finalists.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York TimesThis baek kimchi jjigae, or white kimchi stew, is deeply savory with a gingery bite.What to Listen toTake five minutes to experience Alice Coltrane’s spiritual jazz.What to Read“Strangers to Ourselves,” by the New Yorker writer Rachel Aviv, is an intimate and revelatory account of mental illness.Now Time to PlayPlay today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Dead Sea and Caspian Sea, despite their names (five letters).Here are today’s Wordle and today’s Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you next time. — AmeliaP.S. The Times is launching a new team focused on data analysis of U.S. elections.The latest episode of “The Daily” is on the nuclear plant standoff in Ukraine.You can reach Amelia and the team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      ¿Quién es Liz Truss, primera ministra del Reino Unido?

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      La destreza ideológica de la nueva líder británica, que algunos críticos califican de oportunismo, la ha ayudado a avanzar peldaños en la política. Ahora necesitará toda su habilidad para tener éxito.LONDRES — Cuando era una apasionada estudiante de 19 años en Oxford en 1994, Elizabeth Truss pidió un referéndum para abolir la monarquía británica, diciendo a una audiencia de compañeros demócratas liberales: “No creemos que la gente deba nacer para gobernar”.El martes, tres décadas después, Truss, quien ahora tiene 47 años y es conocida como Liz, viajó a un castillo escocés para ser ungida por la reina Isabel II como la nueva primera ministra del Reino Unido, con lo que completa así una odisea política que la ha llevado de ser una republicana bulliciosa a convertirse en la líder del Partido Conservador, revestida de tradición.Hace tiempo que Truss se decantó por la monarquía por considerarla buena para la democracia británica, y también hace tiempo que abandonó el ala liberal-demócrata por el ala conservadora. Más recientemente, cambió de bando en lo que respecta al brexit: antes del referéndum de 2016 se oponía al esfuerzo para que el Reino Unido abandonara la Unión Europea, y luego revirtió el rumbo y se convirtió en una de sus más fervientes evangelizadoras.Su destreza ideológica —los críticos lo llamarían oportunismo— ha contribuido a impulsar a Truss a la cúspide de la política británica. La preparación de Truss para los rigores del trabajo es otra cuestión, teniendo en cuenta las graves tendencias económicas que envuelven al país, y un partido tory que parece dividido entre el deseo de un nuevo comienzo y el arrepentimiento por haber echado a su extravagante predecesor, Boris Johnson.Simpatizantes animando a Truss en un acto de campaña en Manchester, Inglaterra, en agosto. Su mensaje se centró en bajar los impuestos y reducir el gobierno.Molly Darlington/ReutersTruss, según ella misma admite, no tiene el carisma de Johnson. Es torpe socialmente, mientras que él es de trato fácil, es vacilante en su modo de hablar, mientras que él es fluido. Pero Truss avanzó las filas del partido con lo que sus colegas describen como resistencia, empuje y un apetito por la política disruptiva. Cuando Johnson tuvo problemas, se posicionó con destreza: no rompió nunca públicamente con él y se mantuvo en el centro de la atención como una secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores de línea dura.“Tiene mucha confianza en sus instintos”, dijo Marc Stears, un politólogo que fue tutor de Truss cuando estaba en Oxford. “Está dispuesta a correr riesgos y a decir cosas que otros no están dispuestos a decir. A veces, eso le funciona; otras veces, la perjudica”.Acartonada en público, Truss es divertida en privado, dicen sus amigos, con un trato directo e informal, una debilidad por el karaoke y un amor sin reparos por la estrella del pop Taylor Swift. Una vez compartió una selfi con Swift en una entrega de premios, añadiendo la leyenda “Look what you made me do” (Mira lo que me hiciste hacer), el título de una de las exitosas canciones de Swift.Truss necesitará todo su instinto y agilidad para desempeñar el trabajo que hereda de Johnson. Expulsado del cargo por los legisladores de su partido tras una serie de escándalos, ha dejado tras de sí una pila de problemas de enormes proporciones, no muy diferentes de los que tuvo que afrontar Margaret Thatcher cuando se convirtió en la primera mujer en asumir el gobierno del Reino Unido en 1979, durante un periodo anterior de dificultades económicas.Truss se ha inspirado en Thatcher, posando sobre un tanque como lo hizo su heroína en Alemania Occidental y vistiendo blusas de seda con lazos, un elemento básico del vestuario de Thatcher. Pero sus ideas políticas son más parecidas a las de otro héroe de la derecha, Ronald Reagan: las promesas de bajar los impuestos y reducir el gobierno, junto con una celebración del Reino Unido posbrexit como una “nación de aspiración”.Ese mensaje atrajo a los cerca de 160.000 miembros del Partido Conservador, en su mayoría blancos y de edad avanzada, que la eligieron por encima de las duras verdades ofrecidas por su oponente, Rishi Sunak, exministro de Economía. Ahora, tendrá que volver a pivotar para liderar un país diverso y dividido que se enfrenta a sus peores noticias económicas en una generación.Truss se ha inspirado en Margaret Thatcher, pero sus ideas políticas se parecen más a la de otro héroe de la derecha, Ronald Reagan.Helmuth Lohmann/Associated Press“Una de las cosas que ha beneficiado a Liz Truss es que es tribal”, dijo Jill Rutter, investigadora principal de U.K. in a Changing Europe, un instituto de investigación de Londres. “Está muy dispuesta a abrazar todo lo relacionado con un equipo. El problema de ser una jugadora de equipo es que ahora tiene que definir la agenda”.Nacida en 1975, cuatro años antes de que Thatcher llegara al poder, Truss creció en una familia declaradamente de izquierda, con un padre matemático y una madre profesora y enfermera. Habla a menudo de su paso por una secundaria pública en la dura ciudad de Leeds, que, según ella, “defraudaba” a sus alumnos con bajas expectativas, escasas oportunidades y un ayuntamiento atrapado en las garras de lo políticamente correcto.Algunos de sus contemporáneos cuestionan su relato de la época escolar. Señalan que creció en un barrio acomodado de la ciudad que durante mucho tiempo votó por los conservadores. También la acusan de demeritar a sus profesores, que la ayudaron a ser admitida —después de vivir un año en Canadá con su familia— en el Merton College, uno de los colegios más rigurosos académicamente de Oxford.En Oxford, Truss estudió filosofía, política y economía, un programa de estudios de élite del que ha salido un club de políticos prominentes, incluido un ex primer ministro, David Cameron. Algunos han criticado el programa por dar prioridad a la facilidad de palabra y al estudio rápido. Pero Stears dijo que Truss no se ajustaba al cliché de una estudiante de ese programa.“Su habilidad particular no consistía en dominar un encargo ni en ser simplista o fácil, sino en dar con algo inesperado”, dijo. “Cada obra que realizaba era provocativa. Se deleita en la controversia y en provocar a la gente”.Rishi Sunak, rival de Truss por el liderazgo del Partido Conservador, perdió por unos 21.000 votos.Susannah Ireland/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLa política la atrajo pronto, y Truss se convirtió en presidenta de los Demócratas Liberales de la Universidad de Oxford, donde hizo campaña para legalizar la marihuana. Sin embargo, poco después de graduarse en 1996, se pasó a los conservadores, un partido que entonces deambulaba hacia el páramo de la política. Trabajó en el sector privado, para el gigante energético Shell y para Cable & Wireless, y obtuvo el título de contadora pública.En el año 2000, Truss se casó con Hugh O’Leary, un contador al que conoció en una conferencia del partido y con el que ahora tiene dos hijas. Su vida personal amenazó brevemente su carrera en 2005, después de que mantuviera una relación extramatrimonial con un miembro del Parlamento, Mark Field, quien también estaba casado, al que el partido había nombrado su mentor político. El matrimonio de Field se rompió; el de Truss sobrevivió.Elegida al Parlamento en 2010 como diputada por el suroeste de Norfolk, Truss llegó a ocupar seis puestos ministeriales durante los gobiernos de tres primeros ministros conservadores. Su historial político, según la gente que la conoce, era variado, y le costaba hablar en público.Mientras ocupaba el cargo de secretaria de Medio Ambiente en 2014, fue objeto de muchas burlas por un discurso en el que señaló con ligereza que el Reino Unido importaba dos tercios de su queso, para luego fruncir el ceño y añadir portentosamente: “¡Eso es una vergüenza!”.Fue más persuasiva en la campaña contra la salida del Reino Unido de la Unión Europea. En un discurso ante un grupo de la industria de la alimentación y las bebidas, Truss dijo: “Creo que los británicos son gente sensata. Entienden fundamentalmente que, desde el punto de vista económico, al Reino Unido le conviene permanecer en una Unión Europea reformada”.Truss haciendo campaña para el Partido Conservador en West Walton, Norfolk, en 2010.Chris Radburn/Press Association vía Associated PressTras la votación de 2016, Truss dio marcha atrás para convertirse en una entusiasta del brexit. “Me equivoqué, y estoy dispuesta a admitir que me equivoqué”, dijo recientemente, al sostener que las advertencias sobre los efectos calamitosos del brexit habían sido exageradas y que, de hecho, había desencadenado beneficios.Aunque pocos culpan a Truss por su cambio juvenil de liberal-demócrata a conservadora, muchos critican su apoyo retroactivo al brexit. “Esa no es una respuesta seria”, dijo Rutter, de U.K. in a Changing Europe. “Se acumulan las pruebas de que si dificultas el comercio con tu mayor socio comercial, eso perjudica a tu economía”.Ese cambio de postura no ha sido un obstáculo en su carrera. Truss pasó por puestos en el Departamento de Justicia y el Tesoro antes de que Johnson la nombrara ministra de Comercio Internacional en 2019. Recorrió el mundo, firmó acuerdos comerciales posbrexit con Japón, Australia y otros países. Los analistas señalaron que eran en gran medida versiones cortadas y pegadas de los acuerdos de la Unión Europea, pero ella supo beneficiarse de la publicidad.“Muy pronto me pareció que era una probable candidata a primera ministra”, dijo Robert E. Lighthizer, quien, como representante comercial del entonces presidente estadounidense Donald Trump, inició conversaciones sobre un acuerdo transatlántico con Truss.Por el camino, Truss ha mostrado intéres por las fuerzas disruptivas, como el servicio de Uber. Una vez publicó en Twitter que la generación más joven de británicos era “#Uber-riding #Airbnb-ing #Deliveroo-eating #freedomfighters”.La campaña por el liderazgo del partido incluyó una visita a una planta de producción de Jaguar el mes pasado.Foto de consorcio de Jacob King“Ha estado muy dispuesta a definirse a sí misma como una disruptora y a establecer un vínculo entre eso y un enfoque político que beneficie al país”, dijo Bronwen Maddox, directora de Chatham House, la institución de investigación londinense. “Eso tiene algo de refrescante, además de ser obviamente un peligro”.Al igual que Thatcher, también se presenta como una férrea defensora de la democracia occidental. Elevada a secretaria de Relaciones Exteriores en 2021, Truss superó incluso a Johnson en su línea dura contra Rusia. “Putin debe perder en Ucrania”, declaró el pasado marzo durante una visita a Lituania. En vísperas de la guerra, mantuvo una famosa y gélida reunión con el ministro de Relaciones Exteriores ruso, Serguéi Lavrov.Según sus colegas, Truss estará encantada de enfrentarse a Putin. Pero algunos predicen que su mayor némesis será Johnson. Ambicioso y todavía popular entre las bases conservadoras, es probable que siga siendo un personaje noticioso, que podría burlarse de Truss desde los bancos del Parlamento o en una columna de prensa, según Gavin Barwell, quien fue jefe de gabinete de la predecesora de Johnson, Theresa May.“Va a ser como el fantasma de Banquo”, dijo Barwell, en referencia a la aparición que atormentaba al Macbeth de Shakespeare. “En el momento en que se vea en dificultades políticas, habrá un movimiento para traer de vuelta a Boris”.Mark Landler es el jefe de la oficina de Londres. En 27 años en el Times, ha sido jefe de la oficina en Hong Kong y Fráncfort, corresponsal en la Casa Blanca, corresponsal diplomático, corresponsal económico europeo y reportero de negocios en Nueva York. @MarkLandler More

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      Blackpool Shows Challenges for New U.K. Leader Liz Truss

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      Blackpool contains one of the most deprived areas to turn to the Conservatives in Britain’s last general election. But with costs rising, there are already signs of cracks in that support.BLACKPOOL, England — The famed annual light show still illuminates the sky each night in the seaside town of Blackpool in England’s northwest, having survived the nationwide effort to conserve energy. But beneath the glitter, the evidence of decades of decline is everywhere.The signs on the small hotels that line long stretches of the coastline have faded, and “vacancy” notices flash in their front windows. Shuttered storefronts‌ dot‌ the roads in the center of town. The doorways of defunct nightclubs are crowded with those sleeping rough.Liz Truss, who took over as Britain’s prime minister on Tuesday, will have no shortage of issues to address in a country facing grave economic crises. On Thursday, Ms. Truss is set to announce a plan to limit the sharp rise in energy costs.But the most daunting challenges will come in towns like Blackpool, already one of the most deprived in England, according to government statistics.Blackpool South, where the popular Pleasure Beach amusement park stands, long supported the Labour Party but switched to backing the Conservative Party in the 2019 election that brought Boris Johnson to power. It was one of the poorest areas of England to switch parties.But with costs for nearly everything rising, and worries that energy bills could skyrocket to thousands of pounds a year for the average household, there are already indications of cracks in the Conservative coalition.Liz Truss after winning the Conservative Party leadership in London on Monday. She has promised relief for struggling towns like Blackpool.Frank Augstein/Associated Press“I do not think that having Liz Truss or Rishi Sunak would have made any difference to the economy of Blackpool,” said Ava Makepeace, a resident, referring to Ms. Truss’s opponent in the leadership race that ended this week in her victory.Ms. Makepeace, 51, was critical of Conservative policies, and said that Brexit, which Blackpool overwhelmingly favored in a 2016 referendum, had also had a negative effect on the town.“No one can get decent staff anymore,” she said of the restaurants and hotels that had relied on overseas workers. “And poverty in certain areas of central Blackpool are the worst they have ever been.”The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedCard 1 of 5The Fall of Boris Johnson, ExplainedTurmoil at Downing Street. More

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      Brazil’s Bolsonaro Is Preparing for a Revolution

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      RIO DE JANEIRO — It’s election season in Brazil, and the usual buzz of activity fills the air. The press is eagerly following the campaigns, running profiles of candidates and speculating about future coalitions. Supporters of the candidate in the lead, the former president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, are heatedly debating who the next cabinet ministers will be. And all involved are crisscrossing the country for rallies, in an energetic effort to get out the vote.Yet Jair Bolsonaro, the country’s far-right president, stands apart. While his challengers have spent months looking forward to the election, he has sought to preemptively discredit it. He has questioned the role of the Supreme Court and cast doubt, volubly and often, on the electoral process. He speaks as if the election is an encumbrance, an irritation. He says he will not accept any result that is not a victory.To some, this looks like the groundwork for a coup. In this view, Mr. Bolsonaro intends to refuse any election result that does not please him and, with the help of the military, install himself as president permanently. The reading is half right: Mr. Bolsonaro doesn’t intend to leave office, regardless of the election results. But it’s not a coup, with its need for elite consensus and eschewal of mass mobilization, he’s after. It’s a revolution.Since the beginning of his term, Mr. Bolsonaro has behaved more like a revolutionary leader than a president. In his first month in office, he said that his role was not to build anything, but to “undo” everything. Rather than run a government, he’s tried to disrupt it. He refused to fill roles in crucial regulatory agencies, placed supporters with no technical expertise in high positions, underfunded social programs, punished civil servants for doing their jobs and neglected to provide a coordinated response to the pandemic, which killed over 680,000 Brazilians.It’s not destruction for its own sake, however. Dismantling the state is how Mr. Bolsonaro galvanizes his supporters. By identifying clear enemies and antagonizing them, he excites his followers and, crucially, enlists their support. Everything he does — decrees, bills, pronouncements, demonstrations, alliances — is framed for the digital infrastructure of YouTube, Telegram and WhatsApp. The more radical his actions and words, the more engagement he generates.Support for Mr. Bolsonaro may start online, but it leads to the streets. For the past year, Mr. Bolsonaro has conducted a bimonthly “motociata,” a march with thousands of motorcycles that looks very much like a brute show of strength. His presidency, in fact, aspires to be a permanent rally. On Sept. 7 last year, Brazil’s Independence Day, he gathered almost half a million people to protest against the Supreme Court. On the same day this year, he has promised a big military parade to show the army’s support for his government.It’s not just the military. Many of Mr. Bolsonaro’s most fervent supporters are notable for their power over common citizens. He is popular among police officers — a 2021 study estimated that 51 percent of Brazilian street-level police officers were active members of pro-Bolsonaro groups online — and he is also a favored candidate among gun owners. Of those who approve of his government, 18 percent say they already have a gun at home and almost half would like to have one.They may get their wish. One of the major achievements of the Bolsonaro administration has been to weaken gun control, flooding the country with firearms. In 2018, there were around 115,000 people with special licenses to carry a gun in the country. Now there are over 670,000 people holding these licenses — more than in the police and the armed forces. A substantial number of them adore Mr. Bolsonaro and are organized into a vast network of nearly 2,000 gun clubs.Militant and committed, these are the foot soldiers of any future revolution. There’s a lot we don’t know about how that might come about. But it’s clear that if a contingent of supporters, armed and determined to keep Mr. Bolsonaro in power, burst into Brasília, the capital, it would create chaos. In many major cities, it’s not impossible to imagine an insurrection led by police forces — while truck drivers, overwhelmingly pro-Bolsonaro, could block the roads as they did in 2018, creating havoc. Evangelical pastors, whose congregants by large margins support the president, could bless those efforts as part of the fight for good against evil. Out of such anarchy, Mr. Bolsonaro could forge dictatorial order.Who will stop him? Probably not the army. Mr. Bolsonaro, after all, has many supporters in the military and over 6,000 military personnel working in his government, filling civilian roles. For its part, the army seems to be relatively relaxed about a possible takeover and has — to put it mildly — no special attachment to democracy. There is no sign, as far as can be seen, that the armed forces could be protagonists of a coup. But neither is there a sign that they would resist an attempt at revolution.Democratic forces are unlikely to fare much better. For all Mr. da Silva’s popularity, left-wingers seem to have lost their capacity to rally the masses. The 13 years of a left-led government that ended in 2016 did much to disperse and weaken social movements, and they have struggled in the years since to recover their dynamism. Demonstrations against Mr. Bolsonaro, for example, have been poorly attended. And political violence is on the rise: A member of Mr. da Silva’s party, for example, was recently killed by a Bolsonaro supporter. People would certainly think twice before going to the streets to defend a Lula victory.The best bulwark against a revolution, curiously, might be the United States. The Biden administration could make clear the profound costs, in the form of sanctions and international isolation, that would follow any seizure of power. That in turn could frighten big Brazilian businesses — which, as influential backers, can exert considerable pressure on Mr. Bolsonaro — into defending democracy. If the difficulties of executing a revolution are too great and the rewards seem slim, it’s conceivable that Mr. Bolsonaro will back down — or simply stage a performance, as former President Donald Trump did, to maintain control over his followers and prepare the ground for the next election.The last time Brazil experienced similar political chaos was in 1964, when a military coup removed a democratic government that was trying to carry out progressive reforms. It took just a few hours for the United States, then led by Lyndon Johnson, to recognize the new government of Brazil.A lot hinges on the hope that the United States now values democracy a bit more.Miguel Lago is the executive director of the Institute for Health Policy Studies and teaches at Columbia University.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More