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in ElectionsImran Khan Dominates Punjab Vote, Deepening Pakistan Turmoil
Mr. Khan’s political party won 15 of the 20 seats in the country’s most populous province, which has often served as a bellwether for national politics.ISLAMABAD, Pakistan — Less than four months after Prime Minister Imran Khan was ousted from power in Pakistan, his party has won a sweeping victory in elections in the most populous province, proving that Mr. Khan remains a powerful force and adding to the political uncertainty that has embroiled the country since his defeat.Mr. Khan’s political party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, on Sunday won 15 of the 20 seats contested in Punjab, a province that has often served as a bellwether for national politics.The province is home to more than half of Pakistan’s 200 million people and for years has been a political stronghold for the family of Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who took over in April after Mr. Khan was ousted in a no-confidence vote that shook Pakistan’s fragile democracy.The elections Sunday were seen as a litmus test for Mr. Sharif’s government, a coalition of several parties that has struggled to gain popular support amid a cratering economy and to compete with the political momentum Mr. Khan’s party, known as P.T.I., has gained on the campaign trail since his ouster.“The P.T.I. has demonstrated that it has mobilized real support in the wake of the vote of no-confidence against Khan, while the ruling coalition has hemorrhaged support,” said Madiha Afzal, a fellow at the Brookings Institution. “The ruling coalition will have to fundamentally rethink its strategy and approach and perform well on economic indicators to have a shot at the next general election.”In a series of rallies that have attracted tens of thousands of people in recent weeks, Mr. Khan has accused the United States and the country’s powerful military establishment of orchestrating a conspiracy to topple his government. American officials, Mr. Sharif and the military have denied those accusations.A polling station in Lahore, in Punjab Province, on Sunday.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut Mr. Khan’s message has resonated with people across the country, and the election results were widely viewed as a repudiation of the powerful military establishment and a reaction to the worsening economic conditions that have squeezed lower- and middle-income families.On Monday, Mr. Khan renewed his call for the government to hold general elections earlier than 2023, when they are currently scheduled. “The only way forward from here is to hold fair & free elections,” he said on Twitter. “Any other path will only lead to greater political uncertainty & further economic chaos.”Since taking office, Mr. Shehbaz’s government has had to walk a fine line balancing the tough measures needed to get the economy back on track with his party’s need to retain popular support ahead of the next general elections.Amid inflation that has reached its highest level in 14 years, Mr. Sharif has had to raise electricity rates, increase fuel prices and end government subsidies to revive a $6 billion bailout program from the International Monetary Fund. The bailout program was announced in 2019 and later suspended after Mr. Khan’s government failed to meet some of the loan conditions, like cutting energy subsidies.Last week, the I.M.F. and Pakistan’s government announced a staff-level agreement that paves the way for the disbursement of $1.17 billion to help avert a potential default. But the hugely unpopular economic measures to avoid default have spurred a public backlash against the ruling party, Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz, and proved a key factor in Mr. Khan’s success in the Punjab elections, analysts say.“Not all of this is Mr. Sharif’s fault,” Nusrat Javeed, a veteran journalist, and political analyst based in Islamabad, said in an interview. “His government is facing the brunt of an accumulated mess of all previous governments.”But for most voters, Mr. Javeed said, what matters is that since April, “long hours of power outages are back, petrol has gone out of reach, and electricity prices are constantly being increased.”Since his ouster, Mr. Khan has capitalized on that dissatisfaction as he embarked on a new campaign trail. In recent weeks, he has frequented TV talk shows and carried out an unrelenting social media campaign across Twitter, Facebook Live, YouTube, and Instagram Live.A market in Lahore. Inflation has reached its highest level in 14 years.Arif Ali/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Khan has also accused the Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate, of meddling in the election process. During campaign speeches over the past few weeks, Mr. Khan would often claim that “Mr. X,” a code name he came up with for the provincial I.S.I. chief, was trying to rig the elections.On Twitter, P.T.I. supporters have heaped unprecedented criticism and ridicule at the army chief, Gen. Qamar Javed Bajwa, who was once considered to be a Khan supporter. General Bajwa appeared to withdraw his support for Mr. Khan last year after the two disagreed over military appointments. Angry P.T.I. supporters, in Pakistan and out of the country, have accused General Bajwa of giving a nod to the change of government in April.The anti-military rhetoric is a distinct shift for Mr. Khan, who ascended the political ranks with the support of the country’s powerful military. His victory in the 2018 elections was attributed by many of his rivals to a back-room deal struck with the military establishment.“His anti-establishment stance, in particular, is notable,” said Ms. Afzal, the Brookings fellow. “It represents a departure for Khan, and also for his voter base.”Government officials said Mr. Khan’s victory on Sunday disproved his accusations of election rigging and military interference in the current political cycle.“This is the first election in history the transparency of which even the worst political opponents cannot point a finger at,” Marriyum Aurangzeb, the county’s information minister, said.Still, the electoral loss on Sunday has added pressure on the ruling coalition, which has struggled to find its bearing after coming to power in a precarious position.Security outside a polling station in Lahore on Sunday.Rahat Dar/EPA, via ShutterstockThe coalition frequently clashed before ousting Mr. Khan and has struggled to remain cohesive.There is a growing perception in the country that Mr. Sharif is unable to inspire popular support and lacks the charisma of his elder brother Nawaz Sharif, who served as prime minister three times, analysts say. The younger Sharif has a reputation for his administrative skills, while his brother was known for pulling large crowds onto the street and into the voting booth.And the government, which was chosen by Parliament after Mr. Khan’s ouster, has no electoral mandate and has faced mounting pressure to hold fresh general elections in the coming months.Mr. Sharif’s party “is left in a Catch-22 situation,” said Abdul Basit, a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, Singapore. “If it hangs onto power in the center,” he said, “Shahbaz Sharif will be a lame duck prime minister, while early elections will be a political suicide.” More
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in ElectionsSouth Carolina U.S. Senate Primary Runoff Election Results 2022
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in ElectionsPrime Minister Race in Britain Remains Unsettled in Wake of Johnson’s Downfall
Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, is the current front-runner, but Penny Mordaunt, a junior trade minister, is making a surprisingly strong run for the leadership position.LONDON — The last time Britain’s Conservative Party elected a new leader, Boris Johnson dominated the contest from wire to wire, a political celebrity so famous that many voters just called him Boris.Three years later, the oddsmakers’ favorite is Penny Mordaunt, a junior trade minister so obscure that some voters have told pollsters that they confuse her with another single-name English star: the singer Adele.Ms. Mordaunt’s sudden surge in popularity reflects the wide-open, topsy-turvy nature of the race. And it reveals the shadow that Mr. Johnson still casts over British politics. Ms. Mordaunt’s lack of association with the recently deposed prime minister is one of her calling cards: She promotes herself as a fresh start after the ceaseless drama of the past three years. Weary Tory lawmakers are responding.Strictly speaking, Ms. Mordaunt, 49, is not the current front-runner: That status belongs to Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exchequer, who won the backing of 101 lawmakers in the second round of voting on Thursday. Ms. Mordaunt was second, with 83 votes. Conservative legislators will hold additional ballots early this week, before advancing two candidates to a vote of the party’s rank-and-file membership, the results of which will be announced in early September.Provided she makes the shortlist of two, however, Ms. Mordaunt looms as a formidable contender. In a poll of members last week, she finished far ahead of Mr. Sunak in a head-to-head matchup. She also easily outpolled the No. 3 candidate, Liz Truss, who is Mr. Johnson’s foreign secretary and has refused to disavow him. Ms. Mordaunt, by contrast, is neither a Johnson loyalist nor an insurgent figure.“She has the best of both worlds,” said Tim Bale, a professor of politics at Queen Mary University of London. “She can’t be accused of disloyalty on the one hand, and on the other, she has sufficient distance from Johnson because she played such a minor role in government that she’s not tainted by association.”Rishi Sunak, the former chancellor of the Exechequer, has faced attacks from allies of Boris Johnson for resigning his position two weeks ago.Alberto Pezzali/Associated PressVernon Bogdanor, a professor of government at King’s College London, said Ms. Mordaunt’s low profile makes her an attractive blank slate. “No one knows what her views are, and so one can attribute one’s own views to her,” he said. “The same happens in spades, in regard to the queen.”But Ms. Mordaunt’s swift rise has alarmed some critics, who say she is untested and thinly qualified for prime minister. A paratrooper’s daughter who serves in the Royal Naval Reserve, Ms. Mordaunt was defense secretary for two and a half months in 2019 and held a lesser cabinet post in charge of international development.People who have worked with her describe her as charming and sincere, but not interested in the complexities of policy. She also has very little economic experience, at a time when Britain faces a once-in-a-generation cost-of-living crisis.“She was honest and straightforward, and I thought she did care about international development,” said Alistair Burt, who was a minister in the international development department when she was there. “But it is a surprise — I wouldn’t have thought that she would be where she is.”Whether she was equipped to be prime minister, Mr. Burt said he “genuinely wouldn’t know because she hasn’t been significantly tested.”As Ms. Mordaunt’s profile has risen, the attacks on her have sharpened. David Frost, who resigned as Mr. Johnson’s Brexit negotiator last year, gave a scathing account of Ms. Mordaunt, who served as his deputy. He accused her of a poor grasp of detail and absence from her government department, and of being such a problem that he had asked the prime minister to move her to another job.Like other hard-line Brexiteers, Mr. Frost has thrown his support behind Ms. Truss, who campaigned against leaving the European Union in the 2016 referendum, but who has since converted to the cause with zeal. Ms. Mordaunt voted to leave, as did Mr. Sunak.Liz Truss, the foreign secretary, remained loyal to Mr. Johnson, which could hurt her in the leadership race.Peter Nicholls/ReutersIt is one of the paradoxes of this race that Brexiteers are opposing the two candidates who backed Brexit and are supporting the one who opposed it.Not only did Ms. Mordaunt urge Britons to vote for Brexit, but she also played a minor, though memorable, part in the campaign by warning that Turkish migrants would flock to Britain when their own country joined the European Union, something she claimed Britain would be unable to block. The statement was erroneous: Britain, like other members, had a right to veto Turkey’s membership.Brexit supporters regard her with suspicion for another reason: She voted for an ill-fated withdrawal agreement with the European Union negotiated by Prime Minister Theresa May.Ms. Mordaunt combines an interest in security and a military background with views on social issues that are mildly progressive by Tory party standards. She has spoken up in favor of the rights of transgender people, for example, a position that has gotten her into trouble with the culture warriors on the party’s right.Seeking to defuse the issue, Ms. Mordaunt said last week that transgender women “are not biological women like me, but the law recognizes them in their new gender and that’s very simple and straightforward.”In the cut-and-thrust of Tory politics, of course, it is neither.During a televised debate on Friday evening, Mr. Mordaunt came under renewed pressure on the issue, with one of her opponents, Kemi Badenoch, questioning whether she had backtracked on her earlier position. Critics said Ms. Mordaunt’s performance was wobbly and unfocused.Analysts said the unsettled nature of the contest had made it especially vicious. Mr. Sunak, the early front-runner, has come under attack by Mr. Johnson’s allies, who view his resignation less than two weeks ago, which set the stage for the prime minister’s downfall, as a betrayal. Mr. Sunak’s tax policy as chancellor was criticized by Jacob Rees-Mogg, with whom he sat in cabinet just days ago. Mr. Rees-Mogg refused to deny reports that he had described the policy, which included tax increases, as “socialist.”The Conservative Party Conference last year in Manchester, England.Neil Hall/EPA, via Shutterstock“Rishi Sunak was always going to get it in the neck,” Professor Bale said.Ms. Truss, who did not resign from Mr. Johnson’s cabinet, faces the danger of being the most closely associated with him. Critics said her campaign had gotten off to a less-than-stirring start. She is not viewed as a charismatic campaigner, despite her solid credentials. One Liberal Democratic lawmaker likened her to Hillary Clinton, while Ms. Mordaunt, the lawmaker said, more resembled Bill Clinton.Unlike Ms. Mordaunt, Ms. Truss has significant economic experience. Yet Ms. Mordaunt’s weakness in that area has yet to hurt her campaign, despite the soaring inflation and specter of a recession that haunts Britain. A lack of focus on the future, analysts said, was another legacy of Mr. Johnson’s distracting tenure.“He’s left the Conservative Party deeply confused because he was trying to hold together an electoral coalition that isn’t a particularly natural one,” Professor Bale said, referring to traditional Conservative voters in the south and working-class supporters in the north of England that Mr. Johnson won over from the Labour Party in 2019.“It was always going to be a case of ‘après moi, le deluge,’” he added. “When Boris Johnson eventually was forced out, there was almost inevitably going to be chaos and bad feeling because of who he was and how he acted.” More