Elections

A confidence vote showed potentially fatal fractures in Prime Minister Mario Draghi’s grand coalition, as the anti-establishment Five Star Movement withheld support and set off a political crisis.ROME — The broad national unity government led by Prime Minister Mario Draghi, which has expanded Italy’s influence in Europe, guided it through a successful vaccination campaign and injected competence and confidence into the country, suddenly neared collapse on Thursday as it faced a rebellion from the remnants of Italy’s recent anti-establishment past.The revolt by the mostly imploded Five Star Movement, led by Mr. Draghi’s predecessor as prime minister, Giuseppe Conte, threatened to usher in the end of a period of political stability for Italy and thrust the country back into the familiar political turmoil that has paralyzed it for decades.Mr. Draghi had opted for the confidence vote early Thursday in an effort to call Mr. Conte’s bluff as he threatened to break with the government over a relief bill for soaring energy costs and new investments, which Five Star found inadequate. It turned out that, this time, Mr. Conte, who has made repeated threats to break with the government, was not bluffing. His party withheld its support in the confidence vote, but it was not immediately clear whether it would remain a part of the government.Though the government survived — by 172 to 39 — Mr. Draghi had made clear that he would not lead a unity government that had no unity. He is now expected to meet with the country’s president, Sergio Mattarella, to discuss next steps.Mr. Mattarella may ask Mr. Draghi to present a new political program to Parliament next week, or form a new government with a simple cabinet shuffle.Mr. Draghi could also choose to resign, forcing the president to ask a different person to try to form a new government or call for early elections.Five Star, whose support crumbled after a chaotic spell running the government and Mr. Draghi’s succession, would most likely suffer terribly in such elections, and many of its members of Parliament, who are loath to lose their paychecks and pensions, would be out of a job.But as the 2023 deadline for elections draws nearer, Five Star also has less to lose, and Mr. Draghi’s government is likely to face more internecine fighting and instability. So it is not entirely surprising that the threat came from Mr. Conte.Giuseppe Conte, a former prime minister and leader of the Five Star Movement, last week. He has made a habit of issuing ultimatums to the government.Massimo Percossi/EPA, via ShutterstockMr. Conte, a lawyer plucked from obscurity by Five Star and the League to lead the government in 2018, has struggled to find his footing as a political leader of what is left of Five Star.He is still bitter, members of Parliament say, over being pushed out as prime minister in 2021, when he was replaced by Mr. Draghi, and he is desperate to rebuild a party that has wasted away, hemorrhaging half of its support.The Five Star leader who brought him in as prime minister — Luigi Di Maio, the current foreign minister — quit the party last month, taking dozens of members with him. Mr. Di Maio, a onetime firebrand, now follows in Mr. Draghi’s footsteps and speaks about the importance of NATO, clearly seeing his future in the establishment.Mr. Conte instead has struggled to signal to his unsatisfied supporters that he can deliver on their interests. But he speaks in legalistic terms, is often inconsistent and has the added headache of constantly trying to appease the party’s often inscrutable founder, Beppe Grillo.Mr. Conte has made a habit of issuing ultimatums to the government. Usually he falls in line. But this time, he did not.“The scenario has changed, we need a different phase,” Mr. Conte told reporters after failing to reach a compromise during talks with Mr. Draghi on Wednesday. “We are ready to support the government but not to sign a blank bill. Whoever accuses us of irresponsibility needs to look in their own backyard.”Among Mr. Conte’s objections to the spending priorities, he has argued that the government has not set aside enough funds for a cost of living package. Five Star — which is traditionally close to Russia and admiring of its president, Vladimir V. Putin — has also opposed sending significant military support to Ukraine in response to the Russian invasion, something Mr. Draghi strongly supports.The potential departure of Mr. Draghi opens the door to forces who are much more sympathetic to Mr. Putin, and as a result risks fracturing Europe’s united front on issues such as sanctions and refusing Russian energy.Mr. Conte, reflecting Five Star’s environmentalist roots, has also vehemently opposed using government money to build a garbage incinerator to alleviate Rome’s devastating trash problems.Mr. Conte set off the spark that brought down the government, and even the parties that have been most solidly behind Mr. Draghi did not want to get caught in the conflagration.Enrico Letta, the leader of the center-left Democratic Party, which has drastically climbed in the polls as Five Star has plummeted, applied pressure on Five Star at a party meeting when he said he would be unwilling to form a new government without them. He added that early elections were preferable if the broad coalition fell apart.Mr. Conte’s former ally, Matteo Salvini of the nationalist League party, said he, too, might pull his support from the coalition government and push for early elections if Five Star left.“If a coalition party doesn’t back a government decree that’s it, enough is enough,” Mr. Salvini said on Italian television. “It seems clear that we should go to elections.”Even so, his support has declined, while backing has increased for the hard-right Brothers of Italy party, led by Giorgia Meloni. Her party would be the greatest beneficiary of early elections, which she supports.The earliest time for that election would be autumn, which would disturb the usual drafting of Italy’s budget and create the unlikely event of Italian politicians campaigning in the summer.Gaia Pianigiani More