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      A Pro-Europe, Anti-Populist Youth Party Scored Surprising Gains in the Dutch Elections

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      For years, right-wing populists have been a driving force in the Netherlands. But this week a pan-European party called Volt shook things up.Lost among the mostly humdrum national elections in the Netherlands this week was the emergence of Volt, an anti-populist, pro-Europe party made up of students and young professionals that snatched three seats in the Dutch Parliament — the first national electoral success in its five years of existence.Volt wasn’t the only outsider group to win a seat or two in the elections. One politician arrived at Parliament driving a tractor with flashing lights to claim her newly won seat for a farmer’s party. Sylvana Simons, a former TV presenter, won a seat for “Bij1,” an anticapitalist party. A new far right, anti-immigrant party won four seats.Over the last two decades, however, it was populists and far right parties that played the insurgent role in Dutch politics, promoting anti-immigrant, anti-establishment and anti-European policies. While never a serious threat to seize power, in 2016 representatives of these parties initiated and won a referendum in the Netherlands on an E.U. trade treaty with Ukraine, temporarily halting the deal.This makes this week’s victory of newcomer Volt all the more remarkable. The party is staunchly pro-Europe, something that most traditional parties had thought was a complete turnoff for voters.“Most people of my generation grew up paying in euros and never having to think about crossing borders,” said Laurens Dassen, 35, the party’s Dutch leader. “For us, Europe is a fact of life.”Prime Minister Mark Rutte, whose center-right Party for Freedom and Democracy comfortably won the greatest number of seats for the fourth time since 2010, has had a tense relationship with Europe. Last year, for example, he upset Southern European countries when he refused to discuss financial support during the pandemic, and brought a biography of Chopin to the meetings because he wasn’t planning on talking anyway.The success of Volt in the Netherlands is all the more remarkable in that it isn’t even a Dutch party but an offshoot of a European movement, with 9,000 members scattered across Europe, and a few more in Switzerland and Albania. The main party was established in 2016 by Andrea Venzon, 29, an Italian living in London, and has a presence in every one of the 27 member states of the European Union.Caroline van der Plas, the leader of the BoerBurgerBeweging party, speaking with journalists from the booth of her tractor.Remko De Waal/Agence France-Presse, via Getty ImagesMr. Dassen, who was raised in Knegsel, a village near Eindhoven, played in the local youth orchestra and, after studying business management, went to work at ABN Amro bank checking processes for transactions in money laundering.But he was worried about the rise of populism and far-right parties, he said, and “in 2018 I read an article about Volt, decided to join and gave up my job some months later to really try to get the party started.”In the Dutch elections Volt piled up heavy vote totals in several Dutch student cities like Delft and Leiden, powered in part by a social media campaign and a broad network of volunteers.Another pro-European party, the D66, won an extra four seats this week, making it the second largest party in the parliament. Its leader, Sigrid Kaag, is a former United Nations special envoy for Syria and the outgoing foreign minister of trade and development.Because no party in the Dutch Parliament commands a majority, analysts said the idiosyncrasies of coalition building could bring Volt into the governing bloc along with Mr. Rutte and Ms. Kaag. Whatever the outcome of that horse trading, analysts think Volt’s future is bright in the Netherlands.“They could be big here and double their seats if they manage to go even stronger on the climate,” said Felix Rotterberg, a campaign strategist long affiliated with the social-democratic party PvdA. “Volt has the youth, and there will only be more of those in the future.”The party is on a winning streak in other parts of Europe, though nothing else is as high-profile as its victories in the Netherlands. Volt now has over 30 elected representatives across Europe, mainly in municipalities in Germany and Italy. But it has also won its first seat in the European Parliament, in the person of Damian Boeselager, 33.In coming months, Volt will be running candidates in national elections in Bulgaria and Germany, in a regional vote in Spain and in local elections in Italy. Following Brexit this year, its British members are starting a rejoin Europe campaign. Its leaders emphasize Volt’s pan-European character, which they say differentiates it from any other party in Europe.“Every one of our members, has direct voting rights at the European level, they are able to choose our board and influence our policies directly,” said Valerie Sternberg, 30, the party’s Germany-based co-president. “No matter where you live in Europe, even in Britain.” The party doesn’t have a youth organization. “Most of us are young ourselves,” she said.Ms. Sternberg said she cried “tears of joy,” when she learned about the success of Volt’s Dutch chapter, and said the party is now setting its sights on Germany, which is having national elections in the fall.“Our weak point is in rural areas across Europe, we need to get our message there, now populists are winning there,” she said. “We hope that Covid is showing people that isolation makes us weak and cooperation makes us stronger.” More

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      ¿Qué es alta política? Vacunar a todos

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      Las vacunaciones en América Latina han sido un desastre, producto de problemas de infraestructura y una dirigencia demasiado ocupada en su subsistencia. ¿Pedimos demasiado si reclamamos hacer lo correcto?Hace unos días escuché conversar a dos mujeres en Barcelona mientras esperaban por su vacuna contra la covid. Una se quejaba del manejo de la pandemia con una amargura ecuménica: no importa si eres catalanista o estás a favor del gobierno central, decía, necesitas dar señales claras. Debe haber un mando único, aseguraba. La amiga asentía y al final soltó la perla: “Así debe ser, pero no puedes derramar vino de un cazo vacío”.Europa aun tienen dificultades para probar que la vacunación puede ser veloz cuando poco más del 4 por ciento de la población continental ha recibido un pinchazo en el brazo. Pensaba en eso —y en las señoras del cazo vacío— cuando revisaba las cifras de vacunación en América Latina. Excluido Chile —donde aproximadamente el 20 por ciento de la población está vacunada y se anuncia inmunidad de rebaño tan temprano como en junio—, el resto de la región no ha inyectado, en promedio, ni al uno por ciento de sus ciudadanos.América Latina no ha sido inmune a la degradación creciente de la política, con dirigencias obsesivamente ocupadas en la próxima elección —o en la perpetuidad— y en peleas menores entre gobiernos y oposiciones mientras pobreza, corrupción, atraso y, ahora, miles de muertes parecen suceder en un universo paralelo. Es ciertamente enervante que la escala de prioridades parezca al revés o, peor, inexistente.Estos son momentos de alta política, y alta política ahora es vacunar pronto a todo el mundo. Los míos, los tuyos, los ajenos. Ricos, pobres. Tener que escribir esto es increíble, porque es evidente, pero vamos: no hay mejor política de Estado que superar la facción y trabajar para todos. Cuando se trata de salud pública en una pandemia, la ideología es una: socializas beneficios.Y, sin embargo, muchos mandatarios y gobiernos parecen más preocupados en ganar las próximas elecciones. El ciclo electoral inició en 2021 con Ecuador y en los últimos meses votaron El Salvador y Bolivia. Este año habrá presidenciales en Perú, Nicaragua, Chile, Honduras, legislativas en México y Argentina y municipales en Paraguay. Toda la región parece en campaña electoral y la pandemia ha resultado una magnífica oportunidad propagandística. Pero las contiendas y las disputas políticas debieran ser secundarias cuando es preciso detener las muertes actuales y evitar la expansión del virus con vacunas. Pronto, sin improvisar y sin opacidad.Es imperdonable que los políticos privilegien sus disputas por encima de las necesidades de las mayorías. Y no es que no deban defender sus intereses sino que la escala de prioridades no admite discusión: la demanda de la facción no puede moralmente anteponerse a la necesidad general. No puede ser votos o muertos.Los problemas son mayores. En toda la región, el déficit de insumos y equipamiento ha sido democráticamente lamentable. Y las imágenes son desastrosas: hospitales desbordados de Perú y Ecuador, falta de información y hasta represión en Nicaragua y Venezuela, un colapso anunciado en Brasil y México es el tercer país con mayor número de muertes del mundo.A los errores de la gestión de la pandemia, se suman décadas de mala gobernanza. Mientras los gobiernos de Corea, Taiwán y Japón implementaron un rastreo minucioso de casos; en muchas ciudades principales de América Latina no hay siquiera padrones digitalizados de la ciudadanía ni bases de datos centralizadas. Unos 34 millones de latinoamericanos no tienen documentos de identificación, lo que significa que ni siquiera figuran en un registro civil. El sistema tiene ineficiencias que preceden a casi todos los gobiernos actuales. Por eso cuando llega una crisis, encuentras enfermeras malpagadas y agotadas atendiendo enfermos envueltas en bolsas de basura pues carecen de equipos. Y observas que algunos gobiernos no se agenciaron suficientes vacunas por incapacidades burocráticas e imprevisión administrativa.De acuerdo, todo esto podría ser achacable al desguace estructural de la salud pública, pero estamos en otro juego cuando episodios de abuso y amiguismo o las agendas políticas de quienes ahora están al mando se interponen entre la vida y la muerte de la población. Si nuestros dirigentes se emplean más en sus guerritas de baja intensidad para acumular poder mientras sus ciudadanos mueren, son miserables.La inversión de prioridades sucede en casi toda la región. Jair Bolsonaro —que cambió cuatro veces de ministro de Salud— entiende la pandemia como un problema personal: entorpeció su deseo de manejar Brasil a placer. Andrés Manuel López Obrador pasa más tiempo empeñado en defender la Cuarta Transformación rumbo a las elecciones legislativas que podrían darle una mayoría absoluta en el Congreso que creando planes de rescate económico a los habitantes de México. En Argentina, el proceso de vacunación está sembrado de dudas: ¿sería tan veloz si el gobierno de Alberto Fernández no tuviera una elección intermedia por ganar? Tampoco en El Salvador, Nicaragua o Venezuela ha habido la integridad de separar el rol funcionarial de la propaganda.En el fondo, la manera en que vacunamos habla de lo que creemos y somos capaces. En Argentina, por ejemplo, una líder opositora sugirió que debiera permitirse a los privados vender dosis y enviar a quien no tiene dinero a la seguridad social o a pedir subsidios. La idea es un absurdo cuando la mayoría de los procesos exitosos de vacunación —y de gestión de la pandemia en las fases críticas— son públicos y centralizados. La evidencia sugiere que una campaña veloz y masiva requiere del Estado a cargo con apoyo de voluntarios de la sociedad civil.El Estado es un elefante —fofo o hambreado— y precisa gimnasia. Por eso es relevante el factor humano para moverlo. Esto es, aun cuando hay infraestructura y enfrentas una crisis de salud pública, la inteligencia de gestión y la capacidad burocrática son capitales. Pero si quienes dirigen lanzan señales equívocas o son cínicos incapaces de hacer alta política, los resultados no pueden ser más que letales. América Latina es ya la región del mundo con más muertos por habitante.Si la opinión pública sabe que las infraestructuras son buenas y sus dirigentes dan el ejemplo, no tendrá una repentina crisis de desconfianza. Las infraestructuras deben soportar; los funcionarios, funcionar.¿Hay sustancia, entonces, o deberemos convencernos de que pedimos vino a una clase política que es un cazo vacío?Diego Fonseca (@DiegoFonsecaDF) es colaborador regular de The New York Times y director del Seminario Iberoamericano de Periodismo Emprendedor en CIDE-México y del Institute for Socratic Dialogue de Barcelona. Voyeur es su último libro. More

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      Will Israel’s Strong Vaccination Campaign Give Netanyahu an Election Edge?

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      Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is banking on voters crediting him for beating the pandemic. But many worry that the country’s reopening may be premature and politically driven.JERUSALEM — Vaccinated Israelis are working out in gyms and dining in restaurants. By this weekend they will be partying at nightclubs and cheering at soccer matches by the thousands.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is taking credit for bringing Israel “back to life” and banking on the country’s giddy, post-pandemic mood of liberation to put him over the top in a close election on Tuesday.But nothing is quite that simple in Israeli politics.While most Israelis appreciate the government’s impressive, world-leading vaccination campaign, many worry that the grand social and economic reopening may prove premature and suspect that the timing is political.Instead of public health professionals making transparent decisions about reopening, “decisions are made at the last minute, at night, by the cabinet,” complained Prof. Hagai Levine, an epidemiologist at the Hebrew University-Hadassah School of Public Health in Jerusalem. “The timing, right before the election, is intended to declare mission accomplished.”The parliamentary election on Tuesday will be the country’s fourth in two years. For Mr. Netanyahu, who is on trial on corruption charges, his best chance of avoiding conviction lies in heading a new right-wing government, analysts say, and he has staked everything on his handling of the coronavirus crisis.He takes personal credit for the vaccination campaign, which has seen about half the country’s 9 million people receive a second Pfizer shot, outpacing the rest of the world, and has declared victory over the virus.“Israel is the world champion in vaccinations, the first country in the world to exit from the health corona and the economic corona,” he said at a pre-election conference this week.A vaccination site at a mall in Givatayim, Israel. Half of the country’s 9 million people have received a second shot of the Pfizer vaccine, outpacing the rest of the world.Oded Balilty/Associated PressHe has presented himself as the only candidate who could have pulled off the deal with Pfizer to secure the early delivery of millions of vaccines, boasting of his personal appeals to Pfizer’s CEO, Albert Bourla, who, as a son of Holocaust survivors, had great affinity for Israel.Mr. Netanyahu even posted a clip from South Park, the American animated sitcom, acknowledging Israel’s vaccination supremacy.But experts said his claim that the virus was in the rearview mirror was overly optimistic.Just months ago, Israel’s daily infection rates and death rates were among the worst in the world. By February, Israel was also leading the world in the number of lockdown days. About two million Israelis under 16 are so far unable to get vaccinated and about a million eligible citizens have so far chosen not to.With much of the adult population now vaccinated, weekly infection rates have been dropping dramatically. But there are still more than a thousand new cases a day, an infection rate that, adjusted for population, remains higher than those of the United States, Canada, Britain, Germany, Spain and others.Health officials approved the reopening of businesses and leisure activities. But they sharply criticized a High Court decision this week lifting the quotas on airport arrivals, in part to allow Israeli citizens abroad to get back and vote.“The High Court is taking responsibility for the risk of mutations entering Israel,” Yoav Kish, the deputy health minister, wrote on Twitter. “Good luck to us all.”Critics blame the government for having failed to establish a reliable system to enforce quarantine for people entering the country, and health experts warn that they could bring in dangerous variants of the virus that are more resistant to the vaccine.The dizzying mix of health policy and electioneering has left many Israelis in a state of confusion, out celebrating but also fearing that the rapid reopening may be reckless.“I believe after the elections things will close again,” said Eran Avishai, the part-owner of a popular Mediterranean restaurant in Jerusalem. “It’s political and not logical that I can open a restaurant while my son, who’s in 10th grade, can only go to school for a few hours twice a week. There are hidden agendas.”Israelis are celebrating new freedoms, like eating in restaurants, but many fear the country’s rapid reopening may be reckless.Atef Safadi/EPA, via ShutterstockBut as a businessman, he added, “I thank Bibi every morning when I wake up,” referring to Mr. Netanyahu by his nickname.The reopening did not lead to an immediate boost for Mr. Netanyahu’s conservative Likud party in pre-election opinion polls, suggesting that his claim of vanquishing the virus may not be enough to persuade those who voted against him in the last three elections to change their minds.For at least two years, Israel has been stuck in political gridlock, roughly divided between pro- and anti-Netanyahu voters. A stalemate in the last three elections prevented either side from securing a majority in Parliament that would allow it to form a stable coalition government.Mr. Netanyahu’s critics accuse him of having mismanaged the health crisis over much of the last year by putting politics and personal interests ahead of the public’s, for example by going easy on those members of the ultra-Orthodox community who flouted lockdown rules in order to maintain the loyalty of his ultra-Orthodox coalition allies.“It’s a mixed bag,” said Gadi Wolfsfeld, a professor of political communication at the Interdisciplinary Center Herzliya. “On the one hand Netanyahu gets credit for bringing the vaccines quickly and making Israel the most vaccinated society. On the other hand, a lot of people are angry at the way the ultra-Orthodox got away with everything, and he is identified with that. And people are mad about the lockdowns.”The hasty reopening was a “cynical strategy,” he said, because any resulting increase in infection would only become apparent after the election.Even as many businesses have reopened, other storefronts across the country were displaying “For Sale” or “To Let” signs after the pandemic left them permanently shuttered.Mr. Netanyahu’s political rivals have homed in on his failures in handling the pandemic, which has taken the lives of more than 6,000 Israelis.“6,000 victims of the government’s failed management will not be coming ‘Back to Life,’” Yair Lapid, leader of the centrist opposition to Mr. Netanyahu, wrote on Twitter. “Israel needs a sane government.”Mr. Netanyahu has been criticized by his rivals for his failures in handling the pandemic, which has killed more than 6,000 Israelis.Menahem Kahana/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA rival from the right, Naftali Bennett, brought out a booklet late last year titled, “How to Beat an Epidemic,” suggesting that he could have done a better job. But it’s impossible to know if he would have fared better than Mr. Netanyahu.“Even if his opponents’ criticism is very harsh, they don’t have the deeds to prove they could have done any better in combating the virus,” said Gayil Talshir, a political scientist at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.For once, she said, Mr. Netanyahu was running a positive campaign largely based on his achievements, rather than a divisive one that pitted different segments of the population against each other.The logistics of holding an election during a pandemic, however, could skew the projections. The Central Elections Committee has decided to place ballot boxes inside nursing homes, a measure that may increase voter turnout among the older population. There will also be polling stations at the airport.There will be more ballot boxes than usual, as well as 50 mobile voting stations to reduce overcrowding. There will be special transportation and separate polling stations for people infected with the virus or in quarantine.But Israel does not offer voting by mail or absentee voting except for diplomats or other officials serving abroad, and some people may still be anxious about coming out to vote.Whether the vaccination campaign and the reopening of the economy can break Israel’s political impasse remains unclear.“It is too soon to judge,” said Ayelet Frish, a strategic consultant, days before the election. The electorate and the politicians remained split, she said, between what she called the pro-Netanyahu “I brought the vaccines” camp and the anti-Netanyahu “Because of you we have 6,000 dead” camp.So far, she said, “It’s a draw.” More

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      Elecciones en Israel: esto necesitas saber

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      Los israelíes votarán el 23 de marzo otra vez para poner fin a un impasse político que lleva dos años instalado en el país. Aquí tienes las claves de los comicios.JERUSALÉN — Los israelíes acudirán a las urnas el martes 23 de marzo por cuarta vez en dos años, con la esperanza de poner fin a un ciclo aparentemente interminable de votaciones y un estancamiento político que ha dejado al país sin presupuesto nacional durante la pandemia.El primer ministro, Benjamin Netanyahu, espera que el programa de vacunación, líder en el mundo y que ha ayudado a devolver al país recientemente a algo parecido a la normalidad, le dé a él y a sus aliados de derecha una ventaja y la mayoría estable que se le ha escapado en tres rondas anteriores de elecciones.Pero Netanyahu, primer ministro desde 2009, postula para la reelección mientras que se lleva a cabo un juicio por corrupción en su contra, una dinámica que los partidos de oposición esperan que incite a los votantes a sacarlo del poder.En realidad, sin embargo, los sondeos muestran que ninguno de los dos bloques tiene el camino despejado para ganar la mayoría, lo que hace pensar a muchos israelíes que habrá otro resultado no concluyente y, tal vez, una posible quinta elección más tarde en el año.Esto es lo que necesitas saber.¿Por qué hay tantas elecciones en Israel?La respuesta más simple es que desde 2019, ni Netanyahu ni sus opositores han logrado ganar suficientes curules en el Parlamento para formar un gobierno de colación con mayoría estable. Eso ha dejado a Netanyahu en el poder, ya como primer ministro interino o como líder de una coalición frágil con algunos de sus mayores acérrimos rivales, aunque no del todo en el poder. Y eso ha obligado al país a votar una y otra vez en un intento por superar el impasse.Detrás del drama, dicen los analistas, están las motivaciones de Netanyahu para buscar la reelección: su corazonada de que puede defenderse mejor del juicio desde la oficina de primer ministro. Dicen que está dispuesto a someter al país a una elección tras otra hasta que gane una mayoría parlamentaria más robusta que pueda concederle inmunidad.“No conozco a ningún analista serio que diga que Israel se encamina a otra ronda de elecciones por otro motivo que no sean los intereses personales de Netanyahu”, dijo Gayil Talshir, profesora de ciencia política en la Universidad Hebrea de Jerusalén.Sin embargo, los seguidores de Netanyahu rechazan la idea de que haya forzado a Israel a una elección tras otra debido a sus intereses personales. Argumentan que sus críticos simplemente están resentidos porque Netanyahu es un competidor feroz y astuto y culpan a Benny Gantz de haber logrado que la coalición resultara insostenible.Netanyahu a su salida del Parlamento de Israel en diciembreFoto de consorcio de Alex Kolomoisky¿Qué provocó esta cuarta elección?Una serie de desacuerdos entre Netanyahu y Benny Gantz, su rival y compañero de la coalición centrista, que culminaron en diciembre cuando no lograron acordar el presupuesto estatal. Eso suscitó la disolución del Parlamento, lo que ha forzado una nueva elección, aunque por ahora sigue vigente el gobierno.Los rivales habían unido fuerzas en abril pasado, luego de la tercera elección, cuando dijeron que lo hacían para asegurarse de que el país contara con un gobierno que le diera dirección a Israel durante la pandemia. Bajo este acuerdo de poder compartido, Gantz asumiría como primer ministro en noviembre de este año. Pero los socios de coalición nunca congeniaron y cada uno acusa al otro de no cooperar de buena fe.Los críticos de Netanyahu aseguran que, al disputar el presupuesto con Gantz y favorecer un plan de un año en lugar de los dos que pedía el acuerdo de la coalición, actuaba de forma interesada. La parálisis presupuestaria, al activar una nueva elección, le dio a Netanyahu otra oportunidad de formar un gobierno en lugar de quedarse en la coalición actual y cederle el poder a Gantz a finales de este año.Pero Netanyahu culpó a Gantz por el rompimiento, al decir que Gantz se había rehusado a llegar a un arreglo con Netanyahu en varios nombramientos estatales.¿Cómo se han visto afectados los israelíes por el estancamiento?La parálisis ha forzado a Israel a atravesar una de las crisis económicas y de salud más profundas de la historia sin un presupuesto público, afectando su planeación económica de largo plazo, que incluye el desarrollo de grandes proyectos de infraestructura.El estancamiento ha retrasado el nombramiento de funcionarios estatales clave, incluido el fiscal estatal y altos funcionarios de los ministerios de Justicia y Finanzas. Y los integrantes de la coalición, incluido Netanyahu, han sido acusados de politizar la toma de decisiones del gobierno incluso más de lo habitual, en busca de cualquier posible ventaja en la contienda electoral.La continua confusión, instigada por las largas dificultades legales de Netanyahu, ha moldeado la política israelí. Los votantes ahora están menos divididos por la ideología que por su rechazo o apoyo a Netanyahu.Y dado que la contienda es tan cerrada, los políticos judíos ahora están buscando cada vez más atraer a la minoría árabe de Israel para ayudar a inclinar la balanza. Los ciudadanos árabes de Israel constituyen alrededor del 20 por ciento de la población. Es un grupo que ha pasado de ser marginado a convertirse en una parte clave del electorado en esta campaña.Gideon Saar, exministro del Interior del Partido Likud de Netanyahu, es uno de sus principales competidores.Amir Cohen/Reuters¿Quiénes son los principales rivales de Netanyahu esta vez?En una demostración del modo en que el mapa político ha cambiado, dos de los principales contrincantes de Netanyahu en este ciclo electoral también son de derecha. Gideon Saar fue ministro del Interior por el partido de Netanyahu y Naftali Bennet es el exjefe de personal de Netanyahu.El tercer contendiente es Yair Lapid, un experiodista de televisión y centrista cuyo partido ha montado el desafío más fuerte contra Netanyahu.Gantz ya no es considerado como una amenaza viable al primer ministro. Las encuestas sugieren que su partido puede incluso no llegar a conseguir ningún puesto, en gran parte debido al enojo entre sus partidarios por haber formado un gobierno de unidad junto con Netanyahu, algo que había prometido no hacer.¿Cómo funcionan las elecciones en Israel?El parlamento, conocido en hebreo como la Knesset, tiene 120 curules que se reparten de manera proporcional entre los partidos que ganan más del 3,25 por ciento del voto.El sistema prácticamente garantiza que ningún partido gane una mayoría absoluta, a menudo dando a los pequeños partidos una gran influencia en las negociaciones para formar coaliciones. El sistema permite que una gran variedad de voces participe en el parlamento, pero hace que conseguir coaliciones estables sea difícil.Formar un nuevo gobierno —si se logra— puede demorar semanas o meses y en cualquier momento del proceso una mayoría de la Knesset puede votar para disolverla y forzar a una nueva elección.En los días posteriores a la elección, el presidente de Israel, Reuven Rivlin, le dará a un legislador cuatro semanas para formar la coalición. Ese mandato suele dársele al líder del partido que haya obtenido la mayor cantidad de asientos en el Parlamento, que posiblemente será Netanyahu. Pero el presidente podría dárselo a cualquier otro legislador, como Lapid, al que crea que tiene una mejor oportunidad de conseguir una coalición viable.Si los esfuerzos de dicho legislador fracasan, el presidente puede darle otras cuatro semanas a un segundo parlamentario para formar un gobierno. Si dicho proceso también naufraga, el parlamento puede nominar a un tercero para que lo intente. Si él o ella no lo logra, el Parlamento se disuelve y se celebra otra elección.Mientras tanto, Netanyahu seguirá siendo el primer ministro encargado. Si de alguna manera el impasse dura hasta noviembre, Gantz aún podría sucederlo. El acuerdo de reparto de poder al que llegaron en abril pasado quedó consagrado en la ley israelí y estipulaba que Gantz sería primer ministro en noviembre de 2021.¿Cómo ha afectado el coronavirus a la elección?En las últimas semanas, Israel ha vuelto a enviar a los niños a la escuela, reabierto los restaurantes para servicio presencial y permitido que las personas vacunadas acudan a conciertos y espectáculos teatrales.Netanyahu espera que el éxito del despliegue de vacunación en el país, que ha logrado darle a la mayoría de israelíes al menos una dosis, le dé un impulso para lograr la victoria.Pero su récord pandémico también podría costarle caro. Algunos votantes creen que ha politizado varias decisiones clave, por ejemplo al limitar algunas multas por incumplir las regulaciones para contener el virus a niveles mucho más bajos que los recomendados por los expertos en salud pública.Los críticos han percibido que esto es una forma de beneficiar a los israelíes ultraortodoxos, algunos de los cuales han incumplido las restricciones a las reuniones masivas. Netanyahu necesitará del apoyo de los israelíes ultraortodoxos para permanecer en el poder tras la elección.No se puede votar por correo en Israel. Para prevenir la propagación del virus, se han previsto lugares de votación para las personas que están en cuarentena y los pacientes con COVID-19.¿Podría haber una quinta elección este año?Nadie lo descarta. Se anticipa que el partido de Netanyahu, Likud, surja como el partido más numeroso, con alrededor de 30 curules. Pero puede que sus aliados no alcancen suficientes para darle la mayoría de 61 que necesita.Y aunque las encuestas actuales sugieren que los partidos de oposición ganarán colectivamente más de 61 curules, no está claro si sus profundas diferencias ideológicas les permitirán unirse.Podría resultar que la clave sea Bennet. Aunque desea reemplazar a Netanyahu, tampoco ha descartado unirse a su gobierno.Patrick Kingsley e Isabel Kershner colaboraron con la reportería. More

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      Latest Claim in the Effort Against Aung San Suu Kyi: A Bag of Cash

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      The Myanmar military’s latest accusations against the ousted civilian leader suggest a monthslong campaign to neutralize the country’s most popular politician.The Myanmar construction tycoon spoke in a faltering monotone, blinking fast and gulping occasionally for air. He said that over the past several years he had handed a total of $550,000 to Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, the civilian leader of Myanmar who was ousted in a military coup last month.On two occasions, he had provided $100,000 and $150,000, the businessman said in a confessional statement broadcast on a military television network Wednesday night. In the English subtitles, the money had been handed over in a “black envelope.” In Burmese, the description had him presenting the money, meant to enhance his business ties, in a paper gift bag.Either way, the envelope or gift bag would have been very large to hold that much cash.The televised statement by U Maung Weik, a military crony who was once imprisoned for drug trafficking, appears to be the latest act in an intricately planned effort to impugn Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi.Before elections in November, an online campaign amplified by pro-military groups raised a litany of unproven allegations against the civilian leader, who had shared power with the military for five years. Once her party won a landslide victory, military-linked forces stepped up their attacks on her, calling her corrupt and under the influence of foreigners.Then, after the military staged its Feb. 1 coup, security forces detained individuals who had been named months earlier as key members of a foreign plot, blessed by Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, to destabilize Myanmar. The chronology suggests a well-planned effort to rid the country of its most beloved leader.Protesters clashing with security forces in Yangon, Myanmar, on Tuesday.The New York Times“We have seen their attempt to arrest Daw Aung San Suu Kyi since before the election,” said U Khin Maung Zaw, her lawyer. He has not been able to see his client nor has he been given power of attorney so he can formally handle her legal affairs.Days before the November polls, the coordinated attacks on social media accused Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi and her governing National League for Democracy of illegally profiting from foreign funding. If the National League for Democracy is found guilty of having been tainted by foreign influence, the party could be disbanded, neutralizing the most popular political force in Myanmar’s history.The targeted campaign — disseminated on Facebook, YouTube, a custom-built website and spoofed emails that shared similar branding and cross-posting — implied that a cabal of Western interests was working with the National League for Democracy to steal the elections and upend Myanmar governance. The custom-built website was developed from a folder named after the military’s proxy party, a digital forensics investigation found.Chief among the supposed plotters was George Soros, the American philanthropist whose Open Society Foundation promotes democracy worldwide.One of the pre-election posts claimed that the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation, a charity group set up in the name of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s mother, was secretly working with the Open Society Foundation to destabilize Myanmar.The implications of the social media attack became clearer this month. Mr. Maung Weik, the construction tycoon, claimed in the television broadcast on Wednesday that he had donated money to the charity. Last week, the military accused Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi of having siphoned off some money from the Daw Khin Kyi Foundation. At least two of the charity’s employees have been detained in recent weeks.On Monday, the same military-controlled television network that broadcast Mr. Maung Weik’s statement announced that arrest warrants had been issued for 11 employees of Open Society Myanmar for aiding the anti-coup protest movement with, among other things, illegal bank transactions. The group’s finance manager has been detained.Volunteer medical doctors operate on an 18-year-old protestor wounded during a crackdown in Yangon, Wednesday.The New York TimesOpen Society Myanmar has denied that it acted illegally by withdrawing funds from its own local bank account.Another pre-election social media attack pointed fingers at a deputy industry minister, a deputy finance minister and an Australian economic adviser to Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, reproaching them for machinations to control the country. After the military ousted the civilian government last month, all three were detained.The military’s takeover of power has galvanized tremendous pushback from the people of Myanmar. Since the coup, millions of people have demonstrated and participated in labor strikes against the regime.The military has responded with the kind of violence normally reserved for the battlefield. In attacks on protesters, security forces have killed at least 215 people, mostly by gunshot, according to a local group that tallies political imprisonments and deaths; more than 2,000 people have been detained for political reasons since the coup.This week, members of a group representing the disbanded Parliament were charged with high treason. So was Myanmar’s envoy to the United Nations, who gave an impassioned speech last month decrying the military’s seizure of power.On Wednesday, the last of Myanmar’s major independent newspapers ceased publication. More than 30 journalists have been detained or pursued by authorities since the coup. The country, for decades under the military’s fist, is rapidly losing whatever democratic reforms had been introduced over the past few years.Protesters building a roadblock on a bridge, Yangon, on Tuesday.The New York TimesSince Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was locked up in a pre-dawn raid on the day of the coup, she has been formally charged with various crimes that could see her imprisoned for years. The charges include esoteric crimes such as illegally importing foreign walkie-talkies and contravening coronavirus regulations.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi has not yet been charged in relation to Mr. Maung Weik’s accusations that he gave her money to better his business relationship with the civilian government. The military television network said that investigators were currently looking into the case.Last week, the military also accused her of illegally accepting 25 pounds of gold and about $600,000. Mr. Maung Weik’s accusations of money transfers are separate from this figure.If charges are brought in any such cases, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 75, could face life imprisonment.“I 100 percent believe that their accusations against Daw Aung San Suu Kyi are groundless,” said U Aung Kyi Nyunt, a spokesman for the National League for Democracy.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s popularity in Myanmar far outstrips that of the generals who have controlled the country for most of the past 60 years. She spent 15 years under house arrest and won the Nobel Peace Prize for her commitment to nonviolent resistance.While her international reputation faded after she defended the military’s ethnic cleansing campaign against Rohingya Muslims, her star appeal endured at home. The National League for Democracy’s electoral performance last year bested its 2015 landslide. The military has called fraud on the polls.Mr. Khin Maung Zaw, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi’s lawyer, said that by silencing and imprisoning her the military regime risked burnishing her popularity further.“They should not let Daw Aung San Suu Kyi change from a hero to a martyr,” he said. “If Daw Aung San Suu Kyi becomes a martyr, then the strength of the people will never be destroyed, and her martyrdom will become the people’s greatest strength.”A Yangon neighborhood after clashes on Tuesday.The New York Times More

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      Dutch Prime Minister in Line for 4th Term Following Victory for ‘Center-Right’

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      Mark Rutte’s party convincingly won the Dutch elections. But wins by liberal-democrats can force him to compromise on his critical European stances.LEIDEN, the Netherlands — Mark Rutte, one of Europe’s longest-serving leaders, saw his Party for Freedom and Democracy win big in Dutch elections on Wednesday, setting him up for a fourth term as prime minister of the Netherlands.“We have to bring this country back to where it should be, as one of the best performing countries in the world,” Mr. Rutte said in a televised victory speech. “I have enough energy for even 10 more years.”Mr. Rutte, who describes his party as “center-right,” must now form a coalition with other parties to obtain a majority in Parliament. D66, a liberal-democratic party led by the former United Nations diplomat Sigrid Kaag, came in second. Mr. Rutte and Ms. Kaag are set to lead talks over forming a new government.Mr. Rutte’s party gained three seats as compared with similar elections in 2017, according to exit polls published by the public broadcaster NOS on WednesdayMr. Rutte and his cabinet had resigned in January over a scandal involving the tax authorities’ targeting of people, mostly poor, who had made administrative mistakes in their requests for child benefits. Many were ruined financially after being forced to pay back benefits to which they had been entitled.The scandal did not play a significant role during the campaign, however, nor did Mr. Rutte’s wavering polices for dealing with the coronavirus. He and his cabinet stayed on in a caretaker role until the election in order to manage the pandemic response.“This has been a corona election, and most of those in power have been rewarded,” said Tom-Jan Meeus, a political columnist for NRC Handelsblad. He said the dispersed wins by several right-wing parties combined did not go beyond their usual threshold of about 18 percent.“These elections are a victory for parties in the political middle, no change for the radical right and a loss for the left,” he added.Mr. Meeus said that he did not expect big shifts in policy, “but there will be more pressure on Mark Rutte to have more pro-European policies, from the parties he has to govern with.”Ms. Kaag, a career diplomat who speaks multiple languages including Arabic, is a staunch supporter of the European Union, as is her party. She served in the outgoing cabinet as minister of international trade and development.Last May, Mr. Rutte led a group of nations that refused blank-check payments for southern European countries to support their economies during the pandemic. He will now be forced to compromise on such stances if he enters into a coalition with D66.Voters in the Netherlands had cast their ballots in one of the first major European elections to take place during the coronavirus pandemic that has swept across the continent in successive waves.Neighboring Germany is also entering a packed election season, with national and state votes coming in a year that will bring to an end the 16-year chancellorship of Angela Merkel.Geert Wilders, a populist who has opposed immigration from Muslim countries and called for a ban of the Quran, saw his Party for Freedom lose two seats, though it remained the third largest.Another right-wing party, the Forum voor Democratie, led by Thierry Baudet, at the height of its popularity appeared ready to win 26 seats, according to opinion polls taken in 2019, but public infighting led some prominent politicians to leave and start their own party. Mr. Baudet’s party won six new seats for a total of eight, according to exit polls late Wednesday.The elections are among of the first to take place in Europe since the coronavirus broke out last spring, sparking repeated lockdowns across the continent as the death toll grew. Portugal voted in presidential elections in January, re-electing the center-right Marcelo Rebelo de Sousa for a second term in office.The pandemic has changed the usual dynamic of organizing elections in the Netherlands, but did not seem to affect turnout on Wednesday. Long lines of socially distanced voters stood waiting in the early afternoon in the historical center of Leiden, a university town near The Hague. At many polling stations voters were allowed to take home the red pencils they used to cast their ballots, a measure to help prevent the virus from spreading.“There is no way anyone can get corona with all these measures,” said Niels Romijn, a civil servant, as he entered a public library to cast his ballot. “Everybody was super chill,” he said, happily showing off his free red pencil. “Civil duty,” he said with a laugh.Polling stations had been open nationwide since Monday to allow vulnerable voters to avoid crowds. Voters over 70 were encouraged to vote by mail. And campaigning mainly took place on television, making it hard for voters to spontaneously confront politicians as is typical practice in the Netherlands.A temporary polling station in the Van Gogh Museum in Amsterdam.Jeroen Jumelet/EPA, via ShutterstockCoronavirus cases are once again surging in the Netherlands, prompting the authorities to warn of a third wave. Last year, it took Mr. Rutte’s government until November to ramp up testing, and now, the vaccination process has been advancing slowly.However, local issues, not the government’s handling of the coronavirus, dominated the election campaign.Broader policies put forward by Mr. Rutte, who has been in power since 2010, were also a focus on the campaign trail, with opponents questioning his government’s repeated cutbacks in health care, policing and other essential services.Mr. Rutte has ruled out any form of cooperation with Mr. Wilders’ Freedom Party, meaning that he will likely have to engage with other parties. Wednesday’s vote brings a record of 17 parties to the 150-seat Dutch parliament. More

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      Israel Has Its 4th National Election in 2 Years. Here’s Why.

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      Israelis will vote again on Tuesday, seeking to end a political deadlock that has gripped the country for two years. This is what you need to know.JERUSALEM — Israelis head to the polls on Tuesday for the fourth time in two years, hoping to break a seemingly endless cycle of elections and a political deadlock that has left the country without a national budget during a pandemic.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu hopes Israel’s world-leading vaccination program, which has helped the country emerge in recent days into something approaching normality, will give him and his right-wing allies an edge and the stable majority that proved elusive in three earlier rounds of elections.But Mr. Netanyahu, prime minister since 2009, is running for re-election while standing trial on corruption charges — a dynamic that opposition parties hope will prompt voters to finally push him out of office.In reality, though, polls show that neither bloc has a clear route to a majority, leaving many Israelis bracing for another inconclusive result, and a possible fifth election later in the year.Here’s what else you need to know.Why is Israel holding so many elections?The simplest explanation is that since 2019, neither Mr. Netanyahu nor his opponents have been able to win enough seats in Parliament to form a coalition government with a stable majority. That has left Mr. Netanyahu in office, either as a caretaker prime minister or at the helm of a fragile coalition with some of his fiercest rivals, though not wholly in power. And that has forced the country to vote again and again in an attempt to break the deadlock.Underlying this drama, analysts say, is one of Mr. Netanyahu’s motivations for seeking re-election — his hunch that he can best fight his prosecution from the prime minister’s office. They say he is ready to take the country to election after election — until he wins a stronger parliamentary majority that could grant him immunity from prosecution.“I don’t know any serious thinker who says Israel is going to another round of elections for reasons other than Netanyahu’s personal interests,” said Gayil Talshir, a professor of political science at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.Supporters of Mr. Netanyahu, however, reject the notion that his personal interests have pushed Israel from election to election. They contend that his critics simply resent that Mr. Netanyahu is a fierce and savvy competitor, and they blame Mr. Gantz for making the coalition untenable..Mr. Netanyahu leaving the Israeli Parliament in December.Pool photo by Alex KolomoiskyWhat prompted this fourth election?A series of disagreements between Mr. Netanyahu and Benny Gantz, his rival and centrist coalition partner, culminated in December in their failure to agree on a state budget. That led the Parliament to dissolve, forcing a new election, though for now the government remains in place.The rivals joined forces last April, after the third election, saying that it was to ensure Israel had a government to lead the country through the pandemic. Under their power-sharing agreement, Mr. Gantz would take over as prime minister in November of this year. But the coalition partners never got along, and each side accuses the other of failing to cooperate in good faith.Mr. Netanyahu’s critics contend that he acted out of personal interest when he fought Mr. Gantz over the budget, favoring a one-year plan, rather than the two years called for by the coalition agreement. The budget deadlock, by forcing a new election, gave Mr. Netanyahu another shot at forming a government, rather than staying in the current coalition and ceding power to Mr. Gantz later this year.But Mr. Netanyahu blamed Mr. Gantz for the break, saying that Mr. Gantz had refused to compromise with Mr. Netanyahu on several state appointments.How has the political gridlock affected Israelis?The gridlock has forced Israel to go without a state budget during one of the most profound health and economic crises in its history, undermining long-term economic planning, including the development of major infrastructure projects.The stasis has delayed the appointment of key state officials, including the state attorney and senior executive officers at the Justice and Finance ministries. And members of the coalition, including Mr. Netanyahu, have been accused of politicizing government decision-making even more than usual, seeking any possible edge in the electoral advantage.The continual turmoil, abetted by Mr. Netanyahu’s long-running legal troubles, has reshaped Israeli politics. Voters are now divided less by ideology than by whether they are for or against Mr. Netanyahu.And with the race so tight, Jewish politicians are now increasingly looking to members of Israel’s Arab minority to help break the deadlock. Arab citizens of Israel form about 20 percent of the population. Once marginalized, they have become a key constituency in this election campaign.Gideon Saar, a former interior minister for Mr. Netanyahu’s Likud party, is one of his primary challengers.Amir Cohen/ReutersWho are Mr. Netanyahu’s main rivals this time?In a sign of how the political map has changed, two of Mr. Netanyahu’s principal challengers in this election cycle are also right-wingers. Gideon Saar is a former interior minister for Mr. Netanyahu’s party and Naftali Bennett is Mr. Netanyahu’s former chief of staff. The third leading challenger is Yair Lapid, a centrist former broadcast journalist whose party is mounting the strongest challenge to Mr. Netanyahu.Mr. Gantz is no longer considered a viable threat to the prime minister. Polls suggest his party may even fail to win a seat, largely because of anger among his former supporters over his decision to form a unity government with Mr. Netanyahu in the first place, an arrangement he had promised not to join.How do Israeli elections work?The Parliament, known in Hebrew as the Knesset, has 120 seats that are allocated on a proportional basis to parties that win more than 3.25 percent of the vote.The system almost guarantees that no single party will win an outright majority, often giving tiny parties big influence in the deal-making that forms coalitions. The system allows for a broad range of voices in Parliament but forming stable coalitions under it is difficult.It could take weeks or possibly months for a new government to be formed — if one can be formed — and at any point in the process, a majority of the Knesset could vote to dissolve again, forcing yet another election.In the days after the election, Reuven Rivlin, Israel’s president, will give one lawmaker four weeks to try to form a coalition. He usually gives that mandate to the leader of the party that won the highest number of seats, which is likely to be Mr. Netanyahu. But he could grant it to another lawmaker, like Mr. Lapid, who he believes has a better chance at pulling together a viable coalition.If that lawmaker’s efforts break down, the president can give a second candidate another four weeks to form a government. If that process also stutters, Parliament itself can nominate a third candidate to give it a go. And if he or she fails, Parliament dissolves and another election is called.In the meantime, Mr. Netanyahu will remain caretaker prime minister. If somehow the deadlock continues until November, Mr. Gantz might still succeed him. The power-sharing deal the pair agreed to last April was enshrined into Israeli law, and stipulated that Mr. Gantz would become prime minister in November 2021.How has the coronavirus affected the election?In recent weeks, Israel has sent children back to school, reopened restaurants for in-house dining and allowed vaccinated people to attend concerts and theater performances.Mr. Netanyahu hopes the success of Israel’s vaccine rollout, which has given a majority of Israelis at least one dose, will help propel him to victory.But his pandemic record may also cost him. Some voters believe he politicized certain key decisions — for instance, capping some fines for flouting antivirus regulations at levels much lower than public health experts recommended.Critics perceived this as a sop to ultra-Orthodox Israelis, some of whom flouted coronavirus restrictions on mass gatherings. Mr. Netanyahu will need the support of two ultra-Orthodox parties to remain in office after the election.Voting by mail is not available in Israel. To prevent the spread of the virus, special polling stations are being set up for quarantined people and for Covid-19 patients.Could there be a fifth election later in the year?No one is ruling it out. Mr. Netanyahu’s party, Likud, is predicted to emerge as the largest party, with around 30 seats. But his allies may not win enough seats to give him a majority of 61.And though current polling suggests the opposition parties will collectively win more than 61 seats, it’s unclear whether their profound ideological differences will allow them to come together.The key player could be Mr. Bennett. Though he wants to replace Mr. Netanyahu, he has also not ruled out joining his government.Patrick Kingsley and Isabel Kershner contributed reporting. More

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      What’s Missing in Israel’s Election? Biden.

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      But that may not be a good sign after all.On March 23, Israel will go to the polls for its fourth national election in two years. The worst part is that this depressing Election Day may just be a prelude to yet another: Opinion polling suggests that Israel’s political blocs will struggle to elect and form a stable parliamentary majority. Our politics, it seems, are stuck on a repetitive doom loop.At least one thing is different: This time, the American president is a nonentity.Consider two election cycles of the last decade. In 2015, just days before Israelis voted, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited Washington and spoke before Congress about the threat of Iran. Mr. Netanyahu made his fierce opposition to President Barack Obama and his Iran deal central to his campaign. Four years later, when Israel entered its current long cycle of repeated elections, Mr. Netanyahu posted his image alongside that of President Donald Trump on a high-rise overlooking Tel Aviv’s main highway. This time his goal was making America a central feature of his campaign, by highlighting his closeness to the president. In both cases, the political messaging was spot-on.Mr. Netanyahu was hardly the first Israeli politician to make America’s president an electoral issue. Prime Minister Ehud Olmert was helped by President George W. Bush. Prime Minister Ehud Barak was elected with the backing of President Bill Clinton’s administration.Why are American presidents so central to elections in a country so far away from Washington? First, because Israelis see the United States as a cornerstone of their country’s security. And while Israelis’ confidence in the alliance has somewhat eroded in recent years, the ability of their leaders to understand, debate and confront the leaders in Washington is still important. Second, what happens in Israel also matters to America; Israeli politics are also part of Washington’s strategy for the Middle East.But in the lead-up to this month’s election, there has been neither an embrace of President Biden nor a repudiation of him. And that’s not for a lack of opportunity. Nearly four weeks passed between Mr. Biden’s inauguration and his first call to Israel’s prime minister. That was viewed by many as a snub. But when Mr. Netanyahu was asked this month why Mr. Biden was so late to call him, the prime minister didn’t try to convince the voters that in fact, Mr. Biden was his best friend; nor did he try to claim that Mr. Biden was a great foe who threatened Israel’s security. He dismissed the question with a few generalities and moved on.Mr. Netanyahu’s main rivals, Yair Lapid, Naftali Bannett and Gideon Saar, have also been hesitant to seize on the issue, or on early signs of disagreement between Washington and Israel over Iran as proof that the prime minister is not fit to keep Israel secure.There’s a simple explanation, and a more complicated one, for this unusual absence. First, the simple: Israelis do not yet know whether Mr. Biden will prove to be a friend, like his predecessor, or a thorn in their side, like the president he previously served under. Mr. Netanyahu cannot yet oppose him because so far he has done nothing objectionable, and alienating the White House for no good reason is beyond the pale even for a cynic like Mr. Netanyahu. The opposite is also true: Mr. Biden has not yet proved himself to be Israel’s friend as president, and so the prime minister’s rivals must be careful not to portray themselves as his admirers.The more complicated explanation concerns America’s interest in the Middle East and the country’s relative irrelevance to much that is happening in the region. The United States was unsuccessful in its halfhearted quest to contain Iranian expansion; it was missing in action in the Syrian civil war; it bet on wrong horses during the so-called Arab Spring; it has alienated the Saudis, let Russia take over Libya and did nothing of value to resolve the Palestinian issue. The list goes on.In fact, the only true achievement of the United States in the region in recent years is the Abraham Accords, the normalization agreement between Israel and the Gulf Arab countries, which was orchestrated by the Trump administration. But this significant move was achieved not as a triumph of the traditional American policy but because American diplomacy was on leave — temporarily occupied by the revolutionary troops of the Trump administration.If America’s leaders are just tired of being involved in Israel’s never-ending political process, I can’t fully blame them. We Israelis are all tired of it, too. We would all wish for a little break. And yet, an Israeli election with no America as a background noise is disturbingly strange. Is this another proof that America is less interested in the country that much depends on its support? Are we being demoted?In more than one way, the policy of the Biden administration seems to be moving along a trajectory that assumes a less central role for Middle East affairs in America’s foreign policy. So it’s quite possible that Israel’s needs are becoming less urgent and that who leads Israel matters less in the eyes of the United States. In such case, the proper election question for Israelis is no longer “Which leader could better deal with America?” but “Which leader can better manage without America?”Shmuel Rosner (@rosnersdomain) is the editor of the Israeli data-journalism site TheMadad.com, a senior fellow at the Jewish People Policy Institute and a contributing opinion writer.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More