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      Spain Hoped Catalonia’s Separatists Would Fade. They’re Gaining Ground.

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storySpain Hoped Catalonia’s Separatists Would Fade. They’re Gaining Ground.Although the pandemic has been a unifying force in much of Europe, parties seeking to create a breakaway state for Catalonia received a majority of votes in a regional election.Voting in the Catalan elections in Barcelona on Sunday.Credit…Finbarr O’Reilly/Getty ImagesNicholas Casey and Feb. 19, 2021Updated 10:03 a.m. ETMADRID — For years, Spain’s government dismissed the separatist movement in the Catalonia region as little more than a “soufflé” — easy to inflate but then collapsing in on itself.Yet the movement shows no signs of imploding anytime soon, even amid a pandemic that has bridged divides elsewhere in Europe.In a regional election on Sunday, parties seeking to create a breakaway state for Catalonia — the part of northeastern Spain that includes Barcelona — increased their majority in the regional Parliament. They began negotiations this week to form a coalition.Election turnout was sharply reduced by the coronavirus, but the final tally showed pro-independence parties receiving a majority of votes — a prize that had long eluded them.“From a pro-independence point of view, this is something to celebrate,” said Àdria Alsina, a Barcelona political analyst who supports breaking away from Spain. “It’s one less argument for those who are against independence and say we never got a majority.”Catalan independence, once a pipe dream of a small group of people, has arguably been Spain’s most polarizing issue for almost a decade. The standoff reached a boiling point in 2017, when the region’s separatist government organized an independence referendum. It went ahead even after Spain’s courts declared it illegal and the police cracked down on voters.Salvador Illa stepped down as Spain’s health minister to run in the Catalan election. His party won more support than any other.Credit…Emilio Morenatti/Associated PressThe referendum was followed by a declaration of independence, which prompted Spain’s central government to oust the Catalan government and charge its members with crimes including sedition. Some of them fled Spain to avoid prosecution, while others ended up in prison.Tensions heightened in Catalonia this week on another front after the police arrested a popular rapper, Pablo Hásel, in the town of Lleida. Mr. Hásel, 32, whose real name is Pablo Rivadulla Duró, faces nine months in prison on charges that his rap lyrics glorified terrorism and denigrated the monarchy. Protests in support of him began on Tuesday in Barcelona, Madrid and other cities, and have turned violent.Before Sunday’s vote, the central government led by Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez dispatched its health minister, Salvador Illa, to run in the regional election on a platform that focused on remaining in Spain. He resigned his post in the national government and tried to capitalize on the prominence he had gained recently as the face of the government’s response to the pandemic’s health crisis.The strategy reaped some dividends: While Mr. Illa did not receive enough votes to form a governing coalition, his party garnered more support than any other.The results also pointed to moderation within the pro-independence camp. Among the pro-independence parties, voters favored Esquerra Republicana, a moderate left-wing party that has propped up Mr. Sánchez’s government in Madrid, but remains firm that it wants an independent state.Supporters of Esquerra Republicana at a campaign meeting in Barcelona last month.Credit…Emilio Morenatti/Associated PressSpeaking to reporters after Sunday’s vote, Arancha González Laya, Spain’s foreign minister, said the situation in Catalonia looked more “comfortable” from Madrid’s perspective, with left-wing and more moderate parties outflanking rivals on both sides of the separatism divide.“There has been an advance of those who are more inclined to a dialogue with the government,” Ms. González Laya said.After the vote, Spain’s government said an independence referendum was not on the cards, even as separatist politicians in Catalonia insisted that the demand should be at the heart of any future negotiation with Madrid.But one issue that appears more open for discussion is whether Madrid could pardon nine politicians and activists who were jailed for orchestrating the secession attempt in 2017.Carles Puigdemont, the president of Catalonia’s regional government at the time, fled the country to evade prosecution. He now lives in Brussels and has since been elected as a member of the European Parliament. He is fighting an attempt to lift his immunity as a member of that body, which could allow Spain’s judiciary to make a fresh attempt to extradite him.Jordi Cuixart, one of the politicians seeking a pardon after being sentenced to nine years in jail, said that “Spain has a democracy, but it still maintains an anti-democratic attitude.” He said he not only wanted to be released from prison, but was asking the government to absolve him and the others of any wrongdoing.Carles Puigdemont, who was president of Catalonia’s regional government during the 2017 independence vote, has since fled the country.Credit…Quique Garcia/EPA, via ShutterstockIf there is any resolution to the independence question, it will take time, said Sandra León, a political scientist at the Carlos III University in Madrid.While the moderate independence wing is likely to be in the driver’s seat, Mr. Puigdemont’s more hard-line party, Together for Catalonia, is likely to be part of the regional government as well.Vox, a Spanish far-right party that has made its anti-independence stance a central issue, will also join Catalonia’s Parliament for the first time, likely fueling further polarization, Ms. León said.Catalan separatists are closely following movements elsewhere in Europe, particularly in Scotland, where the drive for independence has been reignited by Britain’s withdrawal from the European Union. The Scots voted against independence in a 2014 referendum that was authorized by London, but then also voted against Britain’s exit from the European Union.“The independence movement is here to stay,” said Josep Ramoneda, a Catalan columnist and philosopher. “Sooner or later, somebody in Madrid will have to recognize that.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Gunfire at Mogadishu Protest Intensifies Somali Election Impasse

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyGunfire at Mogadishu Protest Intensifies Somali Election ImpasseOpposition political leaders said they were attacked by government forces on Friday, and two former presidents said they were targeted hours earlier.People fleeing the site of violent clashes in Mogadishu, Somalia, on Friday.Credit…Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAbdi Latif Dahir and Feb. 19, 2021, 7:25 a.m. ETNAIROBI — Opposition protests in the Somali capital, Mogadishu, were interrupted by gunfire on Friday, heightening a political standoff caused by the government’s refusal to hold elections that were scheduled for two weeks ago.Videos posted on social media and shared by local news outlets showed opposition leaders marching through the streets of the city before ducking and running for cover as gunfire is heard.The unfolding chaos in the capital is a flash point in a deteriorating political situation in Somalia, and it risks exacerbating clan-based grievances, emboldening the extremist group al-Shabab and undermining progress the country has made in recent years.The country has been in crisis after delays to a national and presidential election. The four-year term of Somalia’s president, Mohamed Abdullahi Mohamed, formally ended last week, but he has refused to leave office, setting off a political crisis.The government put the country under a lockdown before the demonstrations on Friday, suspending all public gatherings. While it said it imposed the restrictions because of the coronavirus pandemic, opposition critics attributed the move to an effort to tamp down protests.Hassan Ali Khaire, the former prime minister and a prominent opposition figure, said in a post on Facebook that he and several other presidential candidates, lawmakers, other officials and civilians survived an “assassination attempt” at the protest. Mr. Khaire later said in a news conference that shells fired against opposition protesters had landed inside the city’s international airport. Hassan Ali Khaire, a former prime minister, center, joined members of opposition parties on Friday to protest against the political impasse in Mogadishu. Credit…Said Yusuf Warsame/EPA, via ShutterstockThe chaos came just hours after an intense exchange of gunfire erupted in Mogadishu in the early hours of Friday morning. In a statement, Hassan Hundubey Jimale, the Somali minister of internal security, said “armed militias” had attacked military posts with the intention of taking over government buildings. Government forces repulsed the attackers, he said.Those raids were followed by reports of attacks by the government on other political figures, including Mr. Mohamed’s two presidential predecessors, Hassan Sheikh Mohamud and Sharif Sheikh Ahmed, who said on Twitter that the hotel where they were staying had been targeted.“The government forces tonight attacked the Ma’ida hotel where I and the former president were staying,” Mr. Mohamud wrote in a post on Twitter. “It is unfortunate that the outgoing president is shedding the blood of citizens who are preparing for a peaceful demonstration to express their views.”Mr. Ahmed wrote that he believed the attack was ordered by Mr. Mohamed, who is “trying to suppress and force the Somali people from expressing their views peacefully.” The two men had been staying in the hotel along with other opposition figures ahead of Friday’s rally.Somalia’s president is elected by the country’s lawmakers, a process that was scheduled to take place on Feb. 8, but the country has failed to hold the national elections to select those lawmakers.The impasse has inflamed tensions among the federal and regional governments and opposition parties. It has also alarmed the international community, with the United Nations, the United States, the European Union and several African countries, urging the parties involved to resolve the electoral issues “in order for credible and inclusive elections to proceed.”In addition to intensifying attacks from the Qaeda-linked group Shabab, Somalia is battling rising cases of the coronavirus, desert locusts that are destroying crops and climate shocks — creating a humanitarian crisis affecting millions of people. Somalia also severed diplomatic relations with Kenya in December after accusing it of meddling in its internal affairs.The U.S. Embassy in Somalia also called for “an end to all violence” and urged all parties to finalize an agreement on how to move ahead with the election.On Friday, the United Nations Assistance Mission in Somalia said in a statement that it was “deeply concerned by armed clashes” in Mogadishu on Thursday night and Friday morning and called for “calm and restraint by all parties involved.”The clashes, it said, “underscore the urgent need” for government leaders to come together to reach political agreement on the electoral process.Murithi Mutiga, the Horn of Africa project director for the International Crisis Group, said that despite the unfolding events in the streets of Mogadishu, it was not too late for Mr. Mohamed to build consensus around the election and stave off another crisis in the region.“The region can hardly afford another crisis,” Mr. Mutiga said. “At a time when Ethiopia is experiencing internal turmoil and its troops are facing off with Sudanese forces over a disputed borderland and with Al Shabab seemingly resurgent in Somalia and northern Kenya, renewed violence in Somalia and the possible fracturing of the security forces along clan lines would be significantly destabilizing.”Abdi Latif Dahir More

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      En Ecuador debemos vencer al caudillismo

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpiniónSupported byContinue reading the main storyComentarioEn Ecuador debemos vencer al caudillismoLas elecciones ecuatorianas aún no están definidas. Los dos candidatos que buscan un lugar en la segunda vuelta, y representan a la derecha y la izquierda, deben ver que en estos comicios se juega más que un enfrentamiento ideológico: lo que está en la línea es el regreso de un proyecto autoritario.Los dos candidatos a la presidencia de Ecuador que se disputan el segundo lugar en el balotaje, a celebrarse en abril. A la izquierda, Yaku Pérez, el candidato de la izquierda indígena; a la derecha, Guillermo Lasso, candidato de la derecha.Credit…Jose Jacome/EPA vía ShutterstockEs periodista ecuatoriana.15 de febrero de 2021 a las 11:34 ETLas elecciones de Ecuador aún no están definidas. Los candidatos que se disputan su pase a la segunda vuelta, que será en abril, acordaron un recuento parcial de los votos.Es una novedad inusual en la política de mi país: dialogar, negociar y conciliar han sido palabras ajenas al diccionario de nuestra democracia por mucho tiempo. Los últimos cuatro años han sido una saga melodramática de disputa entre el presidente Lenín Moreno y su antiguo aliado y jefe, el expresidente Rafael Correa. Y antes, experimentamos los diez años de correísmo, caracterizados por polarización y caudillismo.Así que cuando, al final del largo escrutinio inicial, Guillermo Lasso —el exbanquero de derecha que busca la presidencia por tercera vez y que terminó con una ventaja de más de 33.000 votos—, accedió a un diálogo con Yaku Pérez —el candidato de la izquierda indígena— y aceptaron un recuento, fue una sorpresa. Una buena señal que no debería esfumarse, especialmente después del cruce de trinos de ambos durante el fin de semana que apunta a desconocer lo acordado. No solo deberían respetar su inusual acuerdo, que es tan buena noticia en Ecuador, sino que deberían saber que una posible alianza los ayudaría a vencer al candidato que impulsa el correísmo.El recuento es una medida deseable en un país en donde el sistema electoral ha estado en entredicho y la palabra “fraude” ha sido recurrente en los procesos electorales. Hace cuatro años, el propio Lasso puso en duda la transparencia del Consejo Nacional Electoral cuando impugnó los resultados. Ahora, tras las votaciones del 7 de febrero, la palabra fue pronunciada por Pérez, quien parecía que pasaría a la segunda vuelta con Andrés Arauz, el aspirante que apoya Correa.Los seguidores de Pérez, igual que los partidarios de Lasso hace cuatro años, ya empezaban a pasear su descontento en las calles del país. Pero al final de la semana pasada, ambos candidatos acordaron el recuento del 100 por ciento de los votos en Guayas, la provincia con más inconsistencias, y el 50 por ciento de los votos en 16 de las 24 provincias del Ecuador.Al final, tanto Lasso como Pérez, igual que muchos ecuatorianos, deben ver que en estas elecciones se juega más que un enfrentamiento entre izquierda y derecha. Lo que se juega es el regreso del correísmo. Aunque Correa no estaba en la papeleta él y su movimiento están cerca del poder otra vez. A Lasso y a Pérez no se les puede pedir que tengan coincidencias ideológicas, pero sí que reconozcan que hay un rival mayor, el hombre fuerte que dominó la vida política ecuatoriana por una década.Correa llegó al poder en 2007 como el presidente de una izquierda que prometía redistribuir la riqueza. Yo, como muchos ecuatorianos, coincidimos con su lista de prioridades: igualdad, combate a la pobreza y lucha contra la corrupción y las élites. Su mandato fue parte de la marea rosada, la tendencia regional en la que varios mandatarios izquierdistas ganaron elecciones y aprovecharon el auge de los precios de las materias primas para instaurar políticas de enorme gasto público que les aseguraron una amplia base popular.Correa no aprovechó los tiempos de bonanza para generar cambios estructurales que disminuyeran la pobreza a largo plazo; limitó la independencia de las instituciones democráticas ecuatorianas, asedió a la prensa independiente y limitó la autonomía de la justicia. Su larga estadía en el poder le permitió afianzar su poder y lograr que buena parte de la vida política dependiera de él.El movimiento con espíritu caudillista que lideró Correa desconoció muchas de las banderas que enarbolan los dos candidatos que ahora pelean por un lugar en el balotaje: la defensa del medioambiente, la lucha de las mujeres por la igualdad, el sentir de las comunidades indígenas acosadas por el extractivismo, los reclamos de las cámaras de producción, el papel de las entidades bancarias. Lo ideal sería que quien llegue a la segunda vuelta (Lasso o Pérez) encuentre la manera de sumar a su plataforma algunas de las promesas de su contrincante.El candidato que finalmente enfrente a Arauz también tiene que encontrar la manera de incluir a las personas que esta vez asistieron a las urnas para buscar el regreso de Correa. No se trata de ecuatorianos desmemoriados, como han dicho algunos. Al contrario, tienen mucha memoria de lo que recibieron durante los diez años del correísmo, como esos aproximadamente 1,9 millones de ecuatorianos que salieron de la pobreza porque recibieron transferencias monetarias durante los años de su gobierno.Los candidatos y nosotros debemos entender que tenemos la oportunidad de romper con ese pasado autoritario que desmanteló la institucionalidad democrática del país.Digo esto porque yo misma he estado ausente de las últimas elecciones. La última vez que voté fue para validar la Constitución de Correa en 2008, que fue una cosa en el papel y otra en la práctica. Fue ese cambio constitucional el que amparó a Correa para extender los límites presidenciales y desde entonces comenzó a hacer más claro que pretendía limitar los pocos contrapesos que existían al poder del ejecutivo.De ahí en adelante, solo la “traición” de uno de los suyos pudo pararlo. Moreno, quien ganó las elecciones presidenciales hace cuatro años bajo la sombra de Correa, de quien fue vicepresidente y aliado cercano, se distanció de su mentor y permitió la apertura de procesos judiciales en contra del expresidente, actualmente acusado de corrupción y autoexiliado en Bélgica.Con la caída de los precios del petróleo, a Moreno le resultó difícil mantener las políticas populistas de su antecesor. Sus éxitos como presidente han sido pírricos y quizás más retóricos que tangibles (como su promesa de “Casas para todos”: prometió entregar más de 300.000 viviendas y, según un escueto informe de la página web oficial, se han construido solo 1397 casas). En cambio, se acercó a la clase empresarial e impuso una política de austeridad económica que lo acerca más a un conservador que a un izquierdista.Entre Correa y Moreno ya suman un periodo de 14 años y no nos ha ido bien ni con la izquierda populista de Correa ni con la moderación de centroderecha que trajo Moreno. Así que ahora, con el candidato de correísmo como favorito, los aspirantes que pelean por estar en el balotaje tienen una alternativa a favor de Ecuador.A Pérez y Lasso no se les pide que dejen de responder a sus bases, pero sí que piensen que hay un país que necesita rehacerse alejado de un movimiento con señas hegemónicas. Todos debemos empezar a usar palabras como concesión, diálogo y acuerdo, incluso con candidatos que no representan lo que queremos, pero que prometen más democracia.Y en democracia todos debemos escucharnos. Hay propuestas de Pérez que en el papel aún no tienen sustento y que podrían hallarlo al cruzarlas con las ideas de Lasso. Un ejemplo es la necesidad de financiamiento de proyectos de reactivación agrícola que plantea el candidato indígena que bien se pueden unir a los créditos agropecuarios que ofrece Lasso al 1 por ciento de interés y a 30 años plazo. También hay coincidencias en temas de ética y educación. Somos los votantes los que tememos cruzar ciertas líneas.A buena parte de los simpatizantes de Pérez —1.795.046 personas en el primer conteo— les costará votar por el hombre que representa el capital financiero. Igualmente a muchos de los votantes de Lasso —1.828.383— les costará votar por un indígena. Pero ya va siendo hora de pensar en un solo país y recordar que tenemos herramientas para fiscalizar a los que hemos votado. Entre los dos sumaron más votos que Arauz y haciendo concesiones podrían unir a dos sectores muy distintos, pero ambos abandonados o atacados por el correísmo.Ya habrá tiempo de pedir que los derechos ganados se mantengan y de reclamar los que hacen falta (como el aborto). Pero ahora necesitamos que el recuento de votos termine y los candidatos que se disputan esos votos asuman el resultado final y lleguen a acuerdos para enfrentar al enemigo mayor.Soraya Constante es periodista ecuatoriana independiente; ha publicado en Univisión Noticias, Vice News y El País.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Stacey Abrams and Lauren Groh-Wargo: How to Turn Your Red State Blue

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      Credit…June ParkSkip to contentSkip to site indexOpinionStacey Abrams and Lauren Groh-Wargo: How to Turn Your Red State BlueIt may take 10 years. Do it anyway.Credit…June ParkSupported byContinue reading the main storyStacey Abrams and Ms. Abrams was the Democratic nominee for governor of Georgia in 2018. Ms. Groh-Wargo was her campaign manager. They opened Fair Fight Action in late 2018.Feb. 11, 2021We met and became political partners a decade ago, uniting in a bid to stave off Democratic obsolescence and rebuild a party that would increase the clout of regular, struggling Georgians. Our mission was clear: organize people, help realize gains in their lives, win local races to build statewide competitiveness and hold power accountable.But the challenge was how to do that in a state where many allies had retreated into glum predictions of defeat, where our opponents reveled in shellacking Democrats at the polls and in the Statehouse.That’s not all we had to contend with. There was also a 2010 census undercount of people of color, a looming Republican gerrymander of legislative maps and a new Democratic president midway into his first term confronting a holdover crisis from the previous Republican administration. Though little in modern American history compares with the malice and ineptitude of the botched pandemic response or the attempted insurrection at the Capitol, the dynamic of a potentially inaccurate census and imminent partisan redistricting is the same story facing Democrats in 2021 as it was in 2011. State leaders and activists we know across the country who face total or partial Republican control are wondering which path they should take in their own states now — and deep into the next decade.Georgians deserved better, so we devised and began executing a 10-year plan to transform Georgia into a battleground state. As the world knows, President Biden won Georgia’s 16 electoral votes in November, and the January runoff elections for two Senate seats secured full congressional control for the Democratic Party. Yet the result wasn’t a miracle or truly a surprise, at least not to us. Years of planning, testing, innovating, sustained investment and organizing yielded the record-breaking results we knew they could and should. The lessons we learned can help other states looking to chart a more competitive future for Democrats and progressives, particularly those in the Sun Belt, where demographic change will precede electoral opportunity.We realize that many people are thinking about Stacey’s political future, but right now we intend to talk about the unglamorous, tedious, sometimes technical, often contentious work that creates a battleground state. When fully embraced, this work delivers wins — whether or not Donald Trump is on the ballot — as the growth Georgia Democrats have seen in cycle after cycle shows. Even in tough election years, we have witnessed the power of civic engagement on policy issues and increases in Democratic performance. This combination of improvements has also resulted in steady gains in local races and state legislative races, along with the continued narrowing of the statewide loss margin in election after election that finally flipped the state in 2020 and 2021.The task is hard, the progress can feel slow, and winning sometimes means losing better. In 2012, for example, we prevented the Republicans from gaining a supermajority in the Georgia House of Representatives, which would have allowed them to pass virtually any bill they wanted. We won four seats they had drawn for themselves, and in 2014 we maintained those gains — just holding our ground was a victory.The steps toward victory are straightforward: understand your weaknesses, organize with your allies, shore up your political infrastructure and focus on the long game. Georgia’s transformation is worth celebrating, and how it came to be is a long and complicated story, which required more than simply energizing a new coterie of voters. What Georgia Democrats and progressives accomplished here — and what is happening in Arizona and North Carolina — can be exported to the rest of the Sun Belt and the Midwest, but only if we understand how we got here.Understand why you’re losing.To know how to win, we first had to understand why a century of Democratic Party dominance in Georgia had been erased. For most of the 20th century, Georgia Democrats had existed in a strained alliance of rural conservatives, urban liberals and suburbanites, all unconvinced that voting Republican would serve their ends. After serving as the incubator of the Gingrich revolution in the early 1990s, Georgia turned sharply to the right. When Democrats lost U.S. Senate seats in 2002 and 2004, as well as the governorship in 2002, it showed that former conservative Democrats had fully turned Republican. The Democratic Party lost its grip on power. By 2010, Democrats were losing every statewide race, and in 2012 the State Senate fell to a Republican supermajority. Clearly, Democrats had to change tactics. More

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      Las elecciones presidenciales en Ecuador son un referendo del pasado

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      Aunque Rafael Correa, expresidente de Ecuador, se encuentra en el exilio, aún ejerce una gran influencia en la política del país.Credit…Daniel Berehulak para The New York TimesLas elecciones presidenciales en Ecuador son un referendo del pasadoEl país, que enfrenta los embates de la pandemia y una persistente recesión económica, ve cómo el debate político gira en torno a un líder que ya gobernó.Aunque Rafael Correa, expresidente de Ecuador, se encuentra en el exilio, aún ejerce una gran influencia en la política del país.Credit…Daniel Berehulak para The New York TimesSupported byContinue reading the main storyJosé María León Cabrera, Anatoly Kurmanaev y 7 de febrero de 2021 a las 07:15 ETRead in EnglishQUITO — El domingo, Ecuador celebra una elección presidencial, pero el nombre que repiten muchos votantes no aparece en la boleta.Aquí, en Ciudad Bicentenario, un pulcro proyecto de vivienda en las cuestas andinas de Quito, la capital, la mayoría tienen la esperanza puesta en que Rafael Correa les ayude a superar las crisis que trajeron la pandemia y la recesión.Correa, el carismático expresidente, gobernó al país durante un auge económico a principios de siglo que ayudó a muchos líderes izquierdistas en América Latina a sacar de la pobreza a millones de personas y a construir una perdurable base popular.La ola izquierdista ya amainó; la mayoría de sus líderes fueron acusados de corrupción y de extralimitarse en su poder. El mismo Correa fue encontrado culpable de cohecho agravado, enfrenta 35 investigaciones penales y tiene prohibido volver a postular a la presidencia.Pero, como otros líderes poderosos de la llamada marea rosada, sigue teniendo peso en el panorama político de Ecuador, algo que polariza a la nación y hace que el debate esté enfocado en su legado en lugar de en la realidad actual que vive Ecuador.Desde el exilio, Correa impulsó la candidatura de Andrés Arauz, un economista poco conocido de 35 años, para que se postulara por su movimiento, conocido como correísmo. Eso catapultó a Arauz al frente de la contienda a pesar de que algunos de sus seguidores apenas si conocen su nombre.María Obando, una pensionada de 65 años de Ciudad Bicentenario dijo que votaría “por mi Rafaelito”. Al recordarle que Correa no participa en la elección, respondió: “Da lo mismo. Por el de él”.Ciudad Bicentenario se construyó durante el gobierno de Correa y alberga a 1200 familias en Quito. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesLabores de jardinería en Ciudad Bicentenario. Correa ganó muchos seguidores al lograr estabilidad para una nación que solía vivir convulsionada política y económicamente. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesArauz se enfrenta a Guillermo Lasso, un exbanquero, a Yaku Pérez, líder ambientalista indígena, y a otros 13 candidatos.Más de un tercio de los electores dicen que votarán por Arauz, lo que lo ubica alrededor de ocho puntos porcentuales por delante de Lasso, dentro del margen de una victoria contudente de primera vuelta en las votaciones del domingo, según un reporte del 28 de enero que promediaba las encuestas compilado por Cálculo Electoral, un grupo de investigación ecuatoriano. (Arauz podría ganar directamente con el 40 por ciento de los votos si aventaja por 10 puntos a su rival más cercano).El atractivo perdurable de Correa podría seguir una tendencia regional que ha visto cómo los votantes abatidos por la recesión económica en Argentina y Bolivia devolvieron al poder a los partidos de líderes populistas de izquierda asociados con épocas de mayor bienestar y gasto social.“Como proyecto político, queremos que vuelvan esas políticas que tanto bienestar dieron”, dijo Correa en una entrevista. Dijo que le había notificado personalmente a Arauz que sería el candidato de su movimiento y que sigue “en contacto permanente” con él. Incluso, como prueba de su cercanía, mostró en su teléfono los intercambios en un grupo de Whatsapp que dijo que incluía a su protegido.Correa, el presidente que más tiempo gobernó el país desde que este superó una dictadura militar en 1979, se ganó la fidelidad de muchos al conseguir estabilidad para un país que estuvo plagado de convulsión política y económica.Repartió parte de las ganancias petroleras del país en ayudas en efectivo a los pobres y construyó escuelas, carreteras y viviendas muy subsidiadas, como las hileras de departamentos de tres pisos en Ciudad Bicentenario.Pero después de que los precios del petróleo se desplomaron en 2014, la economía básicamente se paralizó y la pandemia terminó de empujar el estancamiento a una crisis devastadora. La actividad económica se contrajo alrededor de 9 por ciento el año pasado cuando el coronavirus dejó cientos de cadáveres dispersos por las calles de Guayaquil, la segunda ciudad más grande de Ecuador.Andrés Arauz, a la cabeza en las encuestas y protegido de Correa, durante un evento de campaña en Quito la semana pasada. Credit…Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesRosario Carrera, izquierda, y Andrea Encalada, lideresas comunitarias de Ciudad Bicentenario.Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesLa larga sombra política de Correa en Ecuador demuestra el modo en que los líderes populares sudamericanos siguen ejerciendo su poder incluso después de concluidos sus mandatos, a menudo gracias a una base duradera.El expresidente de Bolivia Evo Morales, quien abandonó el cargo por la presión de los militares luego de que buscó elegirse para un cuarto mandato, ha seguido eligiendo a los candidatos de su partido después de volver del exilio en noviembre. En Argentina, la expresidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner ha continuado ejerciendo una gran influencia en su partido después de volver a la vida pública como vicepresidenta en 2019.En el vecino Perú, donde las elecciones presidenciales se llevarán a cabo en abril, la hija del expresidente Alberto Fujimori, ahora en prisión, es candidata y va en segundo lugar según algunos sondeos, a pesar de que la contienda sigue muy volátil.Y en Cuba, Nicaragua y Venezuela, líderes que alguna vez fueron populares, o sus protegidos, han esquivado procesos electorales libres y justos para perpetuar su mandato.El sucesor de Correa y su anterior vicepresidente, Lenín Moreno, desea que Ecuador rompa ese molde, al argumentar que los líderes que se aferran tanto al poder no son saludables para la democracia.“La eternalización en el poder lastimosamente provoca que la gente que lo ejerce adquiera siniestralidades, que en más de una ocasión lindan con la corrupción y hasta con los crímenes de lesa humanidad”, dijo Moreno en una entrevista durante su visita a Washington el mes pasado. “Al momento en que termina su periodo tiene que decir: ‘Ya no más’”.Después de ganar las elecciones en 2017, Moreno rompió con su antiguo aliado y revirtió radicalmente el camino del país: abandonó el populismo de izquierda de Correa y su retórica antiimperialista en favor de una política económica conservadora y lazos más estrechos con Washington.Moreno también dijo que había intentado reconstruir las instituciones democráticas, dañadas por lo que él llamó el desdén hacia las reglas de su antecesor. Supervisó la reestructuración de la corte más alta del país para hacerla más independiente, renegoció la deuda de Ecuador y detuvo los ataques del gobierno a la prensa, aseguró.“Lo que ellos armaron, lastimosamente perdió el rumbo”, dijo Moreno en referencia al gobierno anterior.Moreno decidió no reelegirse y volvió a instituir los límites al mandato presidencial que Correa había eliminado. Su gobierno también llevó a cabo investigaciones de corrupción que resultaron en la condena del expresidente y la encarcelación de ocho de sus ministros. Pero la austeridad de las medidas de Moreno lo volvieron muy impopular, lo que ha hecho que muchos ecuatorianos anhelen el regreso de Correa.José Fernández, pensionado en Ciudad Bicentenario, dijo que el candidato que Correa apoya enfrenta una difícil situación. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesUn afiche a favor de Correa en una ventana en Ciudad Bicentenario. Aunque su nombre no aparece en la boleta, muchos votantes lo tienen presente.Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesCorrea dijo que los cargos de corrupción en su contra eran políticos y dijo que Moreno era “el peor traidor de la historia del Ecuador”. Dijo que las medidas de austeridad económica deberían eliminarse y que había que reemplazar a los magistrados que Moreno nombró. El presidente y el fiscal general que lo investiga, dijo Correa, terminarían en la cárcel.Esa política radical muestra el costo de los liderazgos prolongados en América Latina, como el de Correa, dijo Risa Grais-Targow, analista en la consultora Eurasia Group, una consultora de política de riesgo.“Todo se convierte en un referéndum sobre Correa”, dijo. “El resultado son estas oscilaciones constantes, en las que los líderes cambian el sistema según les conviene antes de que sus sucesores intenten deshacerlo”.Estas oscilaciones socavan la estabilidad económica y la confianza de los inversionistas, lo que hace que el avance del país sea más difícil, dijo Grais-Targow.Correa dijo que seguiría viviendo en Bélgica, a donde se mudó con su esposa de nacionalidad belga después de dejar el cargo, pero defendió la persistencia de sus ambiciones políticas. Dijo que iba a asesorar a Arauz si llega al poder, y aseguró estar “en perfecta sincronía” con el candidato.“¿Cuál sería el problema?”, dijo Correa cuando se le preguntó si volvería a postular en el futuro. “Los liderazgos son deseables, ningún país se ha desarrollado sin liderazgo”.Los analistas políticos dicen que quien gane la elección tendría dificultades para cumplir la promesa de una pronta recuperación. Las arcas del país están vacías y gran parte de las exportaciones petroleras se emplean para pagarle a China los préstamos.“La situación no es igual, la economía no está igual”, dijo José Fernández, un pensionado de Ciudad Bicentenario, refiriéndose a los años de auge correísta. “La va a tener difícil”.No obstante, planea votar por Arauz porque ofrece la mayor posibilidad de repetir el éxito económico de Correa.“Mire, si el economista Arauz hace exactamente lo que le diga el economista Correa, le va a ir bien”.Nayeli Carcelén y su familia fueron beneficiarios del programa de vivienda de Correa. Aún no decide su voto. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesJosé María León Cabrera More

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      Ecuador’s Presidential Election Is a Referendum on the Past

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      Although Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, is in exile, he still exerts great influence over the country’s politics.Credit…Daniel Berehulak for The New York TimesEcuador’s Presidential Election Is a Referendum on the PastThe country, facing a pandemic and an entrenched recession, is seeing political debate revolve around the legacy of a long-gone leader.Although Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, is in exile, he still exerts great influence over the country’s politics.Credit…Daniel Berehulak for The New York TimesSupported byContinue reading the main storyJosé María León Cabrera, Anatoly Kurmanaev and Feb. 7, 2021, 7:00 a.m. ETLeer en españolQUITO, Ecuador — Ecuador is holding a presidential election on Sunday, but the name on many voters’ lips is not on the ballot.Here in Ciudad Bicentenario, a neat housing project on the Andean slopes of the capital, Quito, it is on Rafael Correa that most hang their hopes of overcoming the overlapping crises brought on by a pandemic and a recession.A charismatic former president, Mr. Correa governed during an economic boom in the 2000s that helped many left-wing leaders in Latin America lift millions out of poverty and build a lasting popular following.The leftist wave has since subsided; most of its leaders were accused of corruption and authoritarian overreach. Mr. Correa himself was convicted of graft, faces another 35 criminal investigations and is barred from running again.But he, like other powerful leaders of the so-called Pink Wave, continues to loom large over the political landscape, polarizing the country and focusing debate on his legacy rather than on the reality facing Ecuador today.From exile, Mr. Correa championed the candidacy of Andrés Arauz, 35, a little-known economist, as the standard-bearer of his political movement, known as the Correismo. The backing catapulted Mr. Arauz to the front of the presidential race, although some of his supporters barely know his name.“I’m voting for my Rafaelito,” said María Obando, a 65-year-old pensioner from Ciudad Bicentenario, using an affectionate diminutive of Mr. Correa’s first name. When reminded that Mr. Correa is not running, she said: “It doesn’t matter, I’ll vote for his guy.”Ciudad Bicentenario was built during Mr. Correa’s administration, housing up to 1,200 families in Quito.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesWatering a garden in Ciudad Bicentenario. Mr. Correa earned the allegiance of many by bringing stability to a nation once rife with political and economic turmoil.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Arauz is running against Guillermo Lasso, a former banker; Yaku Pérez, an Indigenous environmental activist; and 13 other candidates.More than a third of voters say they plan to cast their ballots for Mr. Arauz, putting him about eight percentage points ahead of Mr. Lasso and within striking distance of an outright victory in the first round of voting on Sunday, according to a Jan. 28 polling average compiled by Electoral Calculus, an Ecuadorean research group. (Mr. Arauz could win outright with 40 percent of the vote if he is 10 points ahead of his closest rival.)Mr. Correa’s enduring appeal could continue a regional trend that has seen recession-fatigued voters in Argentina and Bolivia return to power the parties of leftist populists associated with better days and social spending.“We, as a political project, want the return of the policies that produced so much well-being,” Mr. Correa said in an interview. He said that he personally told Mr. Arauz he had been chosen as the movement’s candidate and that he stays in “permanent contact” with him — displaying a WhatsApp group that he said includes his protégé as evidence of that connection.Mr. Correa, the country’s longest-serving president since it emerged from military dictatorship in 1979, earned the allegiance of many by bringing stability to a nation once rife with political and economic turmoil.He handed some of the country’s oil revenue out in cash grants to the poor, and he built schools, roads and heavily subsidized housing, like the rows of three-story apartment blocks in Ciudad Bicentenario.But the economy largely ground to a halt after oil prices fell in 2014, and the pandemic tipped stagnation into a crippling crisis. Economic activity shrank by an estimated 9 percent last year, when the coronavirus left hundreds of dead bodies on the streets of Ecuador’s second-largest city, Guayaquil.Andres Arauz, the front-runner in the polls and Mr. Correa’s protege, campaigning in Quito last week.Credit…Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesRosario Carrera, left, and Andrea Encalada, community leaders of Ciudad Bicentenario.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesThe long political shadow cast by Mr. Correa on Ecuador underlines how popular South American leaders continue exerting power long after their time is officially up, often propped up by an enduring following.Former President Evo Morales of Bolivia, who stepped down under military pressure after seeking a fourth term, has continued picking candidates for his party since returning from exile in November. In Argentina, former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner continues to exert influence over her party since returning to office as vice president in 2019.In neighboring Peru, where presidential elections will be held in April, the daughter of the jailed authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori is running second in some campaign polls, although the race remains volatile.And in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, once popular leaders or their protégés have sidestepped free and fair elections altogether to perpetuate their rule.Mr. Correa’s successor and his former vice president, Lenín Moreno, wants to see Ecuador break that mold, arguing that leaders with too tight a grip on power are unhealthy for democracies.“The eternalizing of power, unfortunately, leads those who wield it to acquire malice, which in more than one occasion has ended in corruption and even crimes against humanity,” Mr. Moreno said in an interview during his visit to Washington last month. “When your period ends a leader has to say, ‘Right, enough.’”After winning election in 2017, Mr. Moreno broke with his former ally and radically reversed the nation’s course, abandoning Mr. Correa’s leftist populism and anti-imperialist rhetoric for a conservative economic policy and closer ties to Washington.Mr. Moreno said he also sought to rebuild the democratic institutions damaged by what he called his predecessor’s disdain for the rules. He oversaw the restructuring of the top court to make it more independent, renegotiated the national debt and stopped official attacks on the news media.“What they built, unfortunately had lost direction,” Mr. Moreno said, referring to the previous administration.Mr. Moreno chose not to seek re-election, and reinstated presidential term limits abolished by Mr. Correa. His administration also undertook the corruption investigations that resulted in the former president’s conviction and the jailing of eight of his ministers. But Mr. Moreno’s austerity measures made him highly unpopular, leaving many Ecuadorians clamoring for Mr. Correa’s return.José Fernández, a pensioner in Ciudad Bicentenario, said Mr. Correa’s protege faces a tough fight. “The situation is not the same, the economy is not the same.” Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesA poster for Mr. Correa in a window at Ciudad Bicentenario. He’s on many voters’ minds, though he is not on the ballot.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Correa said the corruption charges against him were political and called Mr. Moreno “the worst traitor in Ecuador’s history.” He said the economic austerity measures should be scrapped and the top judges installed by Mr. Moreno replaced. The president and the attorney general investigating him, Mr. Correa said, would ultimately end up in jail.Such all-or-nothing politics reflect the costs of lingering Latin American leaders such as Mr. Correa, said Risa Grais-Targow, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.“Everything becomes a referendum on Correa,” she said. “The results are these constant swings back and forth, with leaders changing the system as they see fit before their successors try to undo it.”These swings undermine economic stability and investor confidence, making it harder for the nation to advance, Ms. Grais-Targow said.Mr. Correa said he would continue living in Belgium, where he moved with his Belgian wife after leaving office, but defended his enduring political ambitions. He said he would advise Mr. Arauz if he wins office, claiming to be “in perfect synchrony” with the candidate.“What would be the problem?” Mr. Correa said when asked if he would run for office in the future. “Leaderships are desirable, no country has developed without leadership.”Political analysts say whoever wins the election will struggle to meet promises of a speedy recovery. The national coffers are empty, and the bulk of the country oil exports go to China as repayment on Chinese loans.“The situation is not the same, the economy is not the same,” said José Fernández, a pensioner in Ciudad Bicentenario, referring to Mr. Correa’s boom years. “It’s going to be tough.”Still, he plans to vote for Mr. Arauz, because he offers the biggest hope of repeating Mr. Correa’s economic success.“Look, if this guy does exactly what Mr. Correa tells him to, he’ll do fine.”Nayeli Carcelén and her family benefited from Mr. Correa’s housing program. She is still deciding whom to support.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesJosé María León Cabrera reported from Quito, Anatoly Kurmanaev from Caracas, Venezuela and Natalie Kitroeff from Mexico City.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Future of Pacific Islands Forum Is in Doubt After Palau's Exit

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyPacific Islands’ Most Important Megaphone Falls Into DiscordThe future of an 18-nation group is in doubt after Palau abandoned it over a leadership dispute.A photo released by the Australian prime minister’s office showing leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu in 2019.Credit…Adam Taylor/Australian Prime Minister’s Office, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFeb. 5, 2021, 3:43 a.m. ETSYDNEY, Australia — The Pacific Islands’ most important regional body is on the brink of collapse after a dispute over the election of a new leader led the nation of Palau to abandon the organization and announce the withdrawal of its embassy from Fiji.Other Micronesian countries may follow Palau out of the group, the Pacific Islands Forum, which could hinder momentum on addressing climate change. The forum has long been the region’s megaphone, shouting for action on the world stage as those who live on hundreds of islands are inundated by rising seas and pummeled by more catastrophic storms.“They’ve said in the past that the relationship in the Pacific is unique — it’s like a family,” said Jonathan Pryke, the director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, an independent think tank in Sydney. “To have a family member leave altogether, it’s just a very bad sign.”The forum was founded in 1971 as a representative body for the South Pacific, then expanded in 1999 to include the North Pacific, and divisions within the 18-nation organization (now 17 and shrinking) are not uncommon. Fiji was suspended from the group after a coup in 2009, returning in 2015. Six years ago, a dispute about who would lead the group as its secretary-general was resolved only after a walk and a long talk among a handful of influential leaders.But this year, because of the pandemic, that was not possible. Covid kept the Pacific family apart: The annual forum was conducted over Zoom, and the dozens of in-person meetings that usually precede the gathering did not happen.Mr. Pryke said that lack of connection seemed to have contributed to the explosion of long-simmering frustrations.In general, the countries of Micronesia in the North Pacific — with smaller populations and economies — have complained of being sidelined by the larger countries to the south, including Fiji, New Zealand and Australia.To help manage that, the forum developed a tradition of rotating the secretary-general position among leaders from Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.This week, that protocol broke down into a heated free-for-all.A flurry of candidates emerged in early votes, and Thursday’s final election elevated a former prime minister of the Cook Islands, Henry Puna, to the role of secretary-general. In simple terms, it was Micronesia’s turn, but its candidate, Gerald Zackios, the Marshall Islands’ ambassador to the United States, lost the final tally by one vote.Publicly, the forum said its decision had been driven by strong support for Mr. Puna.Surangel Whipps Jr., Palau’s president, described the result as an act of disrespect.“The process regarding the appointment of the secretary-general has clearly indicated to the Republic of Palau that unity, regionalism and the ‘Pacific Way’ no longer guide the forum,” he said.Mr. Pryke at the Lowy Institute called the absence of consensus “a step backward” for the group, at a time when unity is especially important.“The Pacific is facing major existential crises, the foremost of which is climate change,” he said. “They have been vocal advocates worldwide, far above their size and stature, and it’s largely because of the unity you see in the Pacific — which appears to be rapidly unwinding.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Mario Draghi Is Asked to Form Government in Italy

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesSee Your Local RiskVaccine InformationWuhan, One Year LaterAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyMario Draghi Gets Nod to Form New Government and Guide Italy Out of CrisisThe sudden ascent of the man credited with helping save the euro was a pipe dream for Italians frustrated with a coalition paralyzed by ideological schisms and incompetence.Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, knows well the machinery of government at both the European and Italian level. Credit…Andrew Medichini/Associated PressFeb. 3, 2021Updated 8:43 a.m. ETROME — Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank who is largely credited with helping to save the euro, accepted a mandate from Italy’s president on Wednesday to try and form a new unity government that would guide the country out of the pandemic and through economic recovery.“To overcome the pandemic, to complete the vaccine campaign, to offer answers to the daily problems of the citizens, to relaunch the country are the challenges we face,” Mr. Draghi said after meeting with President Sergio Mattarella for more than an hour at the Quirinal Palace. Italy, he said, faced a “difficult moment.” And he said he had accepted Mr. Mattarella’s appeal because the emergency “requires an answer equal to the seriousness of the situation.”Until as recently as Tuesday, the idea of Mr. Draghi replacing Giuseppe Conte as prime minister remained a pipe dream for the many Italians frustrated with a governing coalition that seemed paralyzed by ideological schisms and incompetence, especially as the coronavirus pandemic raged and economic devastation set in.But on Tuesday evening, Mr. Mattarella summoned Mr. Draghi and appealed to “all the political forces in the Parliament” to support a “high profile government” to meet the historic moment.He made it clear Mr. Conte’s tenure was over and the new players, potentially political leaders proposed by the parties supporting Mr. Draghi or an all-star cast of politically unaffiliated economists, judges and scientists, was ready to take the stage.Italy’s stock market rallied on Wednesday in response to the news that Mr. Draghi had been lined up to lead the Italian government. He immediately began consultations with party leaders that will continue in the coming days in an effort to form a new Italian government.“I am confident that from the exchange with the parties and the groups in the Parliament and from the dialogue with the social forces,” Mr. Draghi said on Wednesday, “there will emerge unity and the capacity to give a responsible answer to the president’s appeal.”Mr. Draghi is himself no political novice. He has served in past Italian governments, was a director of Italy’s treasury and knows well the machinery of government at both the European and Italian level.His name has been mentioned for years as a potential candidate to replace Mr. Mattarella as Italy’s head of state in 2022. But now Mr. Mattarella himself has called on Mr. Draghi, whom he has publicly praised in the past, and brought him directly into the fray.“Now everyone of good will must heed the call of President Mattarella and support the government of Mario Draghi,” Matteo Renzi, the wily former prime minister who engineered the collapse of Mr. Conte’s government by pulling his small party’s support in Parliament. “Now is the time for sobriety.”A former prime minister, Matteo Renzi, triggered the previous government’s collapse.Credit…Pool photo by Alessandro SerranoParty leaders on the right and left quickly expressed support for Mr. Draghi after it became clear that Mr. Mattarella would ask him to form a government.Among them were leaders who had made great shows of their loyalty to Mr. Conte. Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the Democratic Party that Mr. Renzi once led, released a statement that on the one hand referred to the government crisis as a “disaster provoked by the irresponsible choice” of Mr. Renzi, but he then welcomed Mr. Mattarella’s decision. “We will stand ready to discuss the common good for the country.”The Coronavirus Outbreak More