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      Las elecciones presidenciales en Ecuador son un referendo del pasado

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      Aunque Rafael Correa, expresidente de Ecuador, se encuentra en el exilio, aún ejerce una gran influencia en la política del país.Credit…Daniel Berehulak para The New York TimesLas elecciones presidenciales en Ecuador son un referendo del pasadoEl país, que enfrenta los embates de la pandemia y una persistente recesión económica, ve cómo el debate político gira en torno a un líder que ya gobernó.Aunque Rafael Correa, expresidente de Ecuador, se encuentra en el exilio, aún ejerce una gran influencia en la política del país.Credit…Daniel Berehulak para The New York TimesSupported byContinue reading the main storyJosé María León Cabrera, Anatoly Kurmanaev y 7 de febrero de 2021 a las 07:15 ETRead in EnglishQUITO — El domingo, Ecuador celebra una elección presidencial, pero el nombre que repiten muchos votantes no aparece en la boleta.Aquí, en Ciudad Bicentenario, un pulcro proyecto de vivienda en las cuestas andinas de Quito, la capital, la mayoría tienen la esperanza puesta en que Rafael Correa les ayude a superar las crisis que trajeron la pandemia y la recesión.Correa, el carismático expresidente, gobernó al país durante un auge económico a principios de siglo que ayudó a muchos líderes izquierdistas en América Latina a sacar de la pobreza a millones de personas y a construir una perdurable base popular.La ola izquierdista ya amainó; la mayoría de sus líderes fueron acusados de corrupción y de extralimitarse en su poder. El mismo Correa fue encontrado culpable de cohecho agravado, enfrenta 35 investigaciones penales y tiene prohibido volver a postular a la presidencia.Pero, como otros líderes poderosos de la llamada marea rosada, sigue teniendo peso en el panorama político de Ecuador, algo que polariza a la nación y hace que el debate esté enfocado en su legado en lugar de en la realidad actual que vive Ecuador.Desde el exilio, Correa impulsó la candidatura de Andrés Arauz, un economista poco conocido de 35 años, para que se postulara por su movimiento, conocido como correísmo. Eso catapultó a Arauz al frente de la contienda a pesar de que algunos de sus seguidores apenas si conocen su nombre.María Obando, una pensionada de 65 años de Ciudad Bicentenario dijo que votaría “por mi Rafaelito”. Al recordarle que Correa no participa en la elección, respondió: “Da lo mismo. Por el de él”.Ciudad Bicentenario se construyó durante el gobierno de Correa y alberga a 1200 familias en Quito. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesLabores de jardinería en Ciudad Bicentenario. Correa ganó muchos seguidores al lograr estabilidad para una nación que solía vivir convulsionada política y económicamente. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesArauz se enfrenta a Guillermo Lasso, un exbanquero, a Yaku Pérez, líder ambientalista indígena, y a otros 13 candidatos.Más de un tercio de los electores dicen que votarán por Arauz, lo que lo ubica alrededor de ocho puntos porcentuales por delante de Lasso, dentro del margen de una victoria contudente de primera vuelta en las votaciones del domingo, según un reporte del 28 de enero que promediaba las encuestas compilado por Cálculo Electoral, un grupo de investigación ecuatoriano. (Arauz podría ganar directamente con el 40 por ciento de los votos si aventaja por 10 puntos a su rival más cercano).El atractivo perdurable de Correa podría seguir una tendencia regional que ha visto cómo los votantes abatidos por la recesión económica en Argentina y Bolivia devolvieron al poder a los partidos de líderes populistas de izquierda asociados con épocas de mayor bienestar y gasto social.“Como proyecto político, queremos que vuelvan esas políticas que tanto bienestar dieron”, dijo Correa en una entrevista. Dijo que le había notificado personalmente a Arauz que sería el candidato de su movimiento y que sigue “en contacto permanente” con él. Incluso, como prueba de su cercanía, mostró en su teléfono los intercambios en un grupo de Whatsapp que dijo que incluía a su protegido.Correa, el presidente que más tiempo gobernó el país desde que este superó una dictadura militar en 1979, se ganó la fidelidad de muchos al conseguir estabilidad para un país que estuvo plagado de convulsión política y económica.Repartió parte de las ganancias petroleras del país en ayudas en efectivo a los pobres y construyó escuelas, carreteras y viviendas muy subsidiadas, como las hileras de departamentos de tres pisos en Ciudad Bicentenario.Pero después de que los precios del petróleo se desplomaron en 2014, la economía básicamente se paralizó y la pandemia terminó de empujar el estancamiento a una crisis devastadora. La actividad económica se contrajo alrededor de 9 por ciento el año pasado cuando el coronavirus dejó cientos de cadáveres dispersos por las calles de Guayaquil, la segunda ciudad más grande de Ecuador.Andrés Arauz, a la cabeza en las encuestas y protegido de Correa, durante un evento de campaña en Quito la semana pasada. Credit…Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesRosario Carrera, izquierda, y Andrea Encalada, lideresas comunitarias de Ciudad Bicentenario.Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesLa larga sombra política de Correa en Ecuador demuestra el modo en que los líderes populares sudamericanos siguen ejerciendo su poder incluso después de concluidos sus mandatos, a menudo gracias a una base duradera.El expresidente de Bolivia Evo Morales, quien abandonó el cargo por la presión de los militares luego de que buscó elegirse para un cuarto mandato, ha seguido eligiendo a los candidatos de su partido después de volver del exilio en noviembre. En Argentina, la expresidenta Cristina Fernández de Kirchner ha continuado ejerciendo una gran influencia en su partido después de volver a la vida pública como vicepresidenta en 2019.En el vecino Perú, donde las elecciones presidenciales se llevarán a cabo en abril, la hija del expresidente Alberto Fujimori, ahora en prisión, es candidata y va en segundo lugar según algunos sondeos, a pesar de que la contienda sigue muy volátil.Y en Cuba, Nicaragua y Venezuela, líderes que alguna vez fueron populares, o sus protegidos, han esquivado procesos electorales libres y justos para perpetuar su mandato.El sucesor de Correa y su anterior vicepresidente, Lenín Moreno, desea que Ecuador rompa ese molde, al argumentar que los líderes que se aferran tanto al poder no son saludables para la democracia.“La eternalización en el poder lastimosamente provoca que la gente que lo ejerce adquiera siniestralidades, que en más de una ocasión lindan con la corrupción y hasta con los crímenes de lesa humanidad”, dijo Moreno en una entrevista durante su visita a Washington el mes pasado. “Al momento en que termina su periodo tiene que decir: ‘Ya no más’”.Después de ganar las elecciones en 2017, Moreno rompió con su antiguo aliado y revirtió radicalmente el camino del país: abandonó el populismo de izquierda de Correa y su retórica antiimperialista en favor de una política económica conservadora y lazos más estrechos con Washington.Moreno también dijo que había intentado reconstruir las instituciones democráticas, dañadas por lo que él llamó el desdén hacia las reglas de su antecesor. Supervisó la reestructuración de la corte más alta del país para hacerla más independiente, renegoció la deuda de Ecuador y detuvo los ataques del gobierno a la prensa, aseguró.“Lo que ellos armaron, lastimosamente perdió el rumbo”, dijo Moreno en referencia al gobierno anterior.Moreno decidió no reelegirse y volvió a instituir los límites al mandato presidencial que Correa había eliminado. Su gobierno también llevó a cabo investigaciones de corrupción que resultaron en la condena del expresidente y la encarcelación de ocho de sus ministros. Pero la austeridad de las medidas de Moreno lo volvieron muy impopular, lo que ha hecho que muchos ecuatorianos anhelen el regreso de Correa.José Fernández, pensionado en Ciudad Bicentenario, dijo que el candidato que Correa apoya enfrenta una difícil situación. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesUn afiche a favor de Correa en una ventana en Ciudad Bicentenario. Aunque su nombre no aparece en la boleta, muchos votantes lo tienen presente.Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesCorrea dijo que los cargos de corrupción en su contra eran políticos y dijo que Moreno era “el peor traidor de la historia del Ecuador”. Dijo que las medidas de austeridad económica deberían eliminarse y que había que reemplazar a los magistrados que Moreno nombró. El presidente y el fiscal general que lo investiga, dijo Correa, terminarían en la cárcel.Esa política radical muestra el costo de los liderazgos prolongados en América Latina, como el de Correa, dijo Risa Grais-Targow, analista en la consultora Eurasia Group, una consultora de política de riesgo.“Todo se convierte en un referéndum sobre Correa”, dijo. “El resultado son estas oscilaciones constantes, en las que los líderes cambian el sistema según les conviene antes de que sus sucesores intenten deshacerlo”.Estas oscilaciones socavan la estabilidad económica y la confianza de los inversionistas, lo que hace que el avance del país sea más difícil, dijo Grais-Targow.Correa dijo que seguiría viviendo en Bélgica, a donde se mudó con su esposa de nacionalidad belga después de dejar el cargo, pero defendió la persistencia de sus ambiciones políticas. Dijo que iba a asesorar a Arauz si llega al poder, y aseguró estar “en perfecta sincronía” con el candidato.“¿Cuál sería el problema?”, dijo Correa cuando se le preguntó si volvería a postular en el futuro. “Los liderazgos son deseables, ningún país se ha desarrollado sin liderazgo”.Los analistas políticos dicen que quien gane la elección tendría dificultades para cumplir la promesa de una pronta recuperación. Las arcas del país están vacías y gran parte de las exportaciones petroleras se emplean para pagarle a China los préstamos.“La situación no es igual, la economía no está igual”, dijo José Fernández, un pensionado de Ciudad Bicentenario, refiriéndose a los años de auge correísta. “La va a tener difícil”.No obstante, planea votar por Arauz porque ofrece la mayor posibilidad de repetir el éxito económico de Correa.“Mire, si el economista Arauz hace exactamente lo que le diga el economista Correa, le va a ir bien”.Nayeli Carcelén y su familia fueron beneficiarios del programa de vivienda de Correa. Aún no decide su voto. Credit…Johis Alarcón para The New York TimesJosé María León Cabrera More

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      Ecuador’s Presidential Election Is a Referendum on the Past

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      Although Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, is in exile, he still exerts great influence over the country’s politics.Credit…Daniel Berehulak for The New York TimesEcuador’s Presidential Election Is a Referendum on the PastThe country, facing a pandemic and an entrenched recession, is seeing political debate revolve around the legacy of a long-gone leader.Although Rafael Correa, the former president of Ecuador, is in exile, he still exerts great influence over the country’s politics.Credit…Daniel Berehulak for The New York TimesSupported byContinue reading the main storyJosé María León Cabrera, Anatoly Kurmanaev and Feb. 7, 2021, 7:00 a.m. ETLeer en españolQUITO, Ecuador — Ecuador is holding a presidential election on Sunday, but the name on many voters’ lips is not on the ballot.Here in Ciudad Bicentenario, a neat housing project on the Andean slopes of the capital, Quito, it is on Rafael Correa that most hang their hopes of overcoming the overlapping crises brought on by a pandemic and a recession.A charismatic former president, Mr. Correa governed during an economic boom in the 2000s that helped many left-wing leaders in Latin America lift millions out of poverty and build a lasting popular following.The leftist wave has since subsided; most of its leaders were accused of corruption and authoritarian overreach. Mr. Correa himself was convicted of graft, faces another 35 criminal investigations and is barred from running again.But he, like other powerful leaders of the so-called Pink Wave, continues to loom large over the political landscape, polarizing the country and focusing debate on his legacy rather than on the reality facing Ecuador today.From exile, Mr. Correa championed the candidacy of Andrés Arauz, 35, a little-known economist, as the standard-bearer of his political movement, known as the Correismo. The backing catapulted Mr. Arauz to the front of the presidential race, although some of his supporters barely know his name.“I’m voting for my Rafaelito,” said María Obando, a 65-year-old pensioner from Ciudad Bicentenario, using an affectionate diminutive of Mr. Correa’s first name. When reminded that Mr. Correa is not running, she said: “It doesn’t matter, I’ll vote for his guy.”Ciudad Bicentenario was built during Mr. Correa’s administration, housing up to 1,200 families in Quito.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesWatering a garden in Ciudad Bicentenario. Mr. Correa earned the allegiance of many by bringing stability to a nation once rife with political and economic turmoil.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Arauz is running against Guillermo Lasso, a former banker; Yaku Pérez, an Indigenous environmental activist; and 13 other candidates.More than a third of voters say they plan to cast their ballots for Mr. Arauz, putting him about eight percentage points ahead of Mr. Lasso and within striking distance of an outright victory in the first round of voting on Sunday, according to a Jan. 28 polling average compiled by Electoral Calculus, an Ecuadorean research group. (Mr. Arauz could win outright with 40 percent of the vote if he is 10 points ahead of his closest rival.)Mr. Correa’s enduring appeal could continue a regional trend that has seen recession-fatigued voters in Argentina and Bolivia return to power the parties of leftist populists associated with better days and social spending.“We, as a political project, want the return of the policies that produced so much well-being,” Mr. Correa said in an interview. He said that he personally told Mr. Arauz he had been chosen as the movement’s candidate and that he stays in “permanent contact” with him — displaying a WhatsApp group that he said includes his protégé as evidence of that connection.Mr. Correa, the country’s longest-serving president since it emerged from military dictatorship in 1979, earned the allegiance of many by bringing stability to a nation once rife with political and economic turmoil.He handed some of the country’s oil revenue out in cash grants to the poor, and he built schools, roads and heavily subsidized housing, like the rows of three-story apartment blocks in Ciudad Bicentenario.But the economy largely ground to a halt after oil prices fell in 2014, and the pandemic tipped stagnation into a crippling crisis. Economic activity shrank by an estimated 9 percent last year, when the coronavirus left hundreds of dead bodies on the streets of Ecuador’s second-largest city, Guayaquil.Andres Arauz, the front-runner in the polls and Mr. Correa’s protege, campaigning in Quito last week.Credit…Rodrigo Buendia/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesRosario Carrera, left, and Andrea Encalada, community leaders of Ciudad Bicentenario.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesThe long political shadow cast by Mr. Correa on Ecuador underlines how popular South American leaders continue exerting power long after their time is officially up, often propped up by an enduring following.Former President Evo Morales of Bolivia, who stepped down under military pressure after seeking a fourth term, has continued picking candidates for his party since returning from exile in November. In Argentina, former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner continues to exert influence over her party since returning to office as vice president in 2019.In neighboring Peru, where presidential elections will be held in April, the daughter of the jailed authoritarian former president Alberto Fujimori is running second in some campaign polls, although the race remains volatile.And in Cuba, Nicaragua and Venezuela, once popular leaders or their protégés have sidestepped free and fair elections altogether to perpetuate their rule.Mr. Correa’s successor and his former vice president, Lenín Moreno, wants to see Ecuador break that mold, arguing that leaders with too tight a grip on power are unhealthy for democracies.“The eternalizing of power, unfortunately, leads those who wield it to acquire malice, which in more than one occasion has ended in corruption and even crimes against humanity,” Mr. Moreno said in an interview during his visit to Washington last month. “When your period ends a leader has to say, ‘Right, enough.’”After winning election in 2017, Mr. Moreno broke with his former ally and radically reversed the nation’s course, abandoning Mr. Correa’s leftist populism and anti-imperialist rhetoric for a conservative economic policy and closer ties to Washington.Mr. Moreno said he also sought to rebuild the democratic institutions damaged by what he called his predecessor’s disdain for the rules. He oversaw the restructuring of the top court to make it more independent, renegotiated the national debt and stopped official attacks on the news media.“What they built, unfortunately had lost direction,” Mr. Moreno said, referring to the previous administration.Mr. Moreno chose not to seek re-election, and reinstated presidential term limits abolished by Mr. Correa. His administration also undertook the corruption investigations that resulted in the former president’s conviction and the jailing of eight of his ministers. But Mr. Moreno’s austerity measures made him highly unpopular, leaving many Ecuadorians clamoring for Mr. Correa’s return.José Fernández, a pensioner in Ciudad Bicentenario, said Mr. Correa’s protege faces a tough fight. “The situation is not the same, the economy is not the same.” Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesA poster for Mr. Correa in a window at Ciudad Bicentenario. He’s on many voters’ minds, though he is not on the ballot.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesMr. Correa said the corruption charges against him were political and called Mr. Moreno “the worst traitor in Ecuador’s history.” He said the economic austerity measures should be scrapped and the top judges installed by Mr. Moreno replaced. The president and the attorney general investigating him, Mr. Correa said, would ultimately end up in jail.Such all-or-nothing politics reflect the costs of lingering Latin American leaders such as Mr. Correa, said Risa Grais-Targow, an analyst at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy.“Everything becomes a referendum on Correa,” she said. “The results are these constant swings back and forth, with leaders changing the system as they see fit before their successors try to undo it.”These swings undermine economic stability and investor confidence, making it harder for the nation to advance, Ms. Grais-Targow said.Mr. Correa said he would continue living in Belgium, where he moved with his Belgian wife after leaving office, but defended his enduring political ambitions. He said he would advise Mr. Arauz if he wins office, claiming to be “in perfect synchrony” with the candidate.“What would be the problem?” Mr. Correa said when asked if he would run for office in the future. “Leaderships are desirable, no country has developed without leadership.”Political analysts say whoever wins the election will struggle to meet promises of a speedy recovery. The national coffers are empty, and the bulk of the country oil exports go to China as repayment on Chinese loans.“The situation is not the same, the economy is not the same,” said José Fernández, a pensioner in Ciudad Bicentenario, referring to Mr. Correa’s boom years. “It’s going to be tough.”Still, he plans to vote for Mr. Arauz, because he offers the biggest hope of repeating Mr. Correa’s economic success.“Look, if this guy does exactly what Mr. Correa tells him to, he’ll do fine.”Nayeli Carcelén and her family benefited from Mr. Correa’s housing program. She is still deciding whom to support.Credit…Johis Alarcón for The New York TimesJosé María León Cabrera reported from Quito, Anatoly Kurmanaev from Caracas, Venezuela and Natalie Kitroeff from Mexico City.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Future of Pacific Islands Forum Is in Doubt After Palau's Exit

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyPacific Islands’ Most Important Megaphone Falls Into DiscordThe future of an 18-nation group is in doubt after Palau abandoned it over a leadership dispute.A photo released by the Australian prime minister’s office showing leaders at the Pacific Islands Forum in Tuvalu in 2019.Credit…Adam Taylor/Australian Prime Minister’s Office, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesFeb. 5, 2021, 3:43 a.m. ETSYDNEY, Australia — The Pacific Islands’ most important regional body is on the brink of collapse after a dispute over the election of a new leader led the nation of Palau to abandon the organization and announce the withdrawal of its embassy from Fiji.Other Micronesian countries may follow Palau out of the group, the Pacific Islands Forum, which could hinder momentum on addressing climate change. The forum has long been the region’s megaphone, shouting for action on the world stage as those who live on hundreds of islands are inundated by rising seas and pummeled by more catastrophic storms.“They’ve said in the past that the relationship in the Pacific is unique — it’s like a family,” said Jonathan Pryke, the director of the Pacific Islands Program at the Lowy Institute, an independent think tank in Sydney. “To have a family member leave altogether, it’s just a very bad sign.”The forum was founded in 1971 as a representative body for the South Pacific, then expanded in 1999 to include the North Pacific, and divisions within the 18-nation organization (now 17 and shrinking) are not uncommon. Fiji was suspended from the group after a coup in 2009, returning in 2015. Six years ago, a dispute about who would lead the group as its secretary-general was resolved only after a walk and a long talk among a handful of influential leaders.But this year, because of the pandemic, that was not possible. Covid kept the Pacific family apart: The annual forum was conducted over Zoom, and the dozens of in-person meetings that usually precede the gathering did not happen.Mr. Pryke said that lack of connection seemed to have contributed to the explosion of long-simmering frustrations.In general, the countries of Micronesia in the North Pacific — with smaller populations and economies — have complained of being sidelined by the larger countries to the south, including Fiji, New Zealand and Australia.To help manage that, the forum developed a tradition of rotating the secretary-general position among leaders from Melanesia, Micronesia and Polynesia.This week, that protocol broke down into a heated free-for-all.A flurry of candidates emerged in early votes, and Thursday’s final election elevated a former prime minister of the Cook Islands, Henry Puna, to the role of secretary-general. In simple terms, it was Micronesia’s turn, but its candidate, Gerald Zackios, the Marshall Islands’ ambassador to the United States, lost the final tally by one vote.Publicly, the forum said its decision had been driven by strong support for Mr. Puna.Surangel Whipps Jr., Palau’s president, described the result as an act of disrespect.“The process regarding the appointment of the secretary-general has clearly indicated to the Republic of Palau that unity, regionalism and the ‘Pacific Way’ no longer guide the forum,” he said.Mr. Pryke at the Lowy Institute called the absence of consensus “a step backward” for the group, at a time when unity is especially important.“The Pacific is facing major existential crises, the foremost of which is climate change,” he said. “They have been vocal advocates worldwide, far above their size and stature, and it’s largely because of the unity you see in the Pacific — which appears to be rapidly unwinding.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Mario Draghi Is Asked to Form Government in Italy

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesSee Your Local RiskVaccine InformationWuhan, One Year LaterAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyMario Draghi Gets Nod to Form New Government and Guide Italy Out of CrisisThe sudden ascent of the man credited with helping save the euro was a pipe dream for Italians frustrated with a coalition paralyzed by ideological schisms and incompetence.Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank, knows well the machinery of government at both the European and Italian level. Credit…Andrew Medichini/Associated PressFeb. 3, 2021Updated 8:43 a.m. ETROME — Mario Draghi, the former head of the European Central Bank who is largely credited with helping to save the euro, accepted a mandate from Italy’s president on Wednesday to try and form a new unity government that would guide the country out of the pandemic and through economic recovery.“To overcome the pandemic, to complete the vaccine campaign, to offer answers to the daily problems of the citizens, to relaunch the country are the challenges we face,” Mr. Draghi said after meeting with President Sergio Mattarella for more than an hour at the Quirinal Palace. Italy, he said, faced a “difficult moment.” And he said he had accepted Mr. Mattarella’s appeal because the emergency “requires an answer equal to the seriousness of the situation.”Until as recently as Tuesday, the idea of Mr. Draghi replacing Giuseppe Conte as prime minister remained a pipe dream for the many Italians frustrated with a governing coalition that seemed paralyzed by ideological schisms and incompetence, especially as the coronavirus pandemic raged and economic devastation set in.But on Tuesday evening, Mr. Mattarella summoned Mr. Draghi and appealed to “all the political forces in the Parliament” to support a “high profile government” to meet the historic moment.He made it clear Mr. Conte’s tenure was over and the new players, potentially political leaders proposed by the parties supporting Mr. Draghi or an all-star cast of politically unaffiliated economists, judges and scientists, was ready to take the stage.Italy’s stock market rallied on Wednesday in response to the news that Mr. Draghi had been lined up to lead the Italian government. He immediately began consultations with party leaders that will continue in the coming days in an effort to form a new Italian government.“I am confident that from the exchange with the parties and the groups in the Parliament and from the dialogue with the social forces,” Mr. Draghi said on Wednesday, “there will emerge unity and the capacity to give a responsible answer to the president’s appeal.”Mr. Draghi is himself no political novice. He has served in past Italian governments, was a director of Italy’s treasury and knows well the machinery of government at both the European and Italian level.His name has been mentioned for years as a potential candidate to replace Mr. Mattarella as Italy’s head of state in 2022. But now Mr. Mattarella himself has called on Mr. Draghi, whom he has publicly praised in the past, and brought him directly into the fray.“Now everyone of good will must heed the call of President Mattarella and support the government of Mario Draghi,” Matteo Renzi, the wily former prime minister who engineered the collapse of Mr. Conte’s government by pulling his small party’s support in Parliament. “Now is the time for sobriety.”A former prime minister, Matteo Renzi, triggered the previous government’s collapse.Credit…Pool photo by Alessandro SerranoParty leaders on the right and left quickly expressed support for Mr. Draghi after it became clear that Mr. Mattarella would ask him to form a government.Among them were leaders who had made great shows of their loyalty to Mr. Conte. Nicola Zingaretti, the leader of the Democratic Party that Mr. Renzi once led, released a statement that on the one hand referred to the government crisis as a “disaster provoked by the irresponsible choice” of Mr. Renzi, but he then welcomed Mr. Mattarella’s decision. “We will stand ready to discuss the common good for the country.”The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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      De la gloria a la oscuridad: la vida de Aung San Suu Kyi, lideresa política de Birmania

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Coup in MyanmarWhat We KnowA Deadly GameMilitary’s AuthorityAung San Suu Kyi Is DetainedWho Is Aung San Suu Kyi?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyDe la gloria a la oscuridad: la vida de Aung San Suu Kyi, lideresa política de BirmaniaDiez años después de que dejó el arresto domiciliario y prometió luchar por la justicia, la lideresa civil de Birmania se ha convertido en la carcelera de sus críticos y una apologista de la matanza de las minorías.Partidarios de la Liga Nacional para la Democracia desfilaban con un retrato de Aung San Suu Kyi en Rangún, Birmania, durante la jornada electoral del domingo.Credit…Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images3 de febrero de 2021Actualizado 08:03 ETRead in EnglishHace una década, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi fue liberada luego de pasar varios años de arresto domiciliario —sin haber podido usar un celular o Facebook— y cuando celebró el fallo de la corte en la oficina de su partido político, que estaba prohibido, emanaba un fuerte olor de humedad por los informes de derechos humanos que estaban amontonados en el piso.Armada con una colección de premios internacionales, lucía un tocado de flores frescas en el cabello cuando se sentó con una postura impecable y le prometió al mundo dos cosas: que lucharía para que los presos políticos de Birmania fuesen liberados y pondría fin a la lucha étnica que ha mantenido las fronteras del país en guerra durante siete décadas.Pero ambas promesas no fueron cumplidas y el icono más resplandeciente de la democracia perdió su brillo. Aung San Suu Kyi, de 75 años, se ha convertido en una apologista de los mismos generales que la encerraron, minimizando su campaña asesina contra la minoría musulmana rohinyá. Como pertenece a la mayoría étnica bamar, sus críticos más fuertes la acusan de racismo y falta de voluntad para luchar por los derechos humanos de todas las personas en Birmania. More

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      Discrimina y vencerás… en las elecciones peruanas

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpiniónSupported byContinue reading the main storyComentarioDiscrimina y vencerás… en las elecciones peruanasPerú celebrará elecciones presidenciales en medio de inestabilidad política y una crisis de salud por la pandemia. En un país confinado y donde solo el 40 por ciento de la población tiene acceso a internet, las campañas virtuales son una posibilidad y un dilema.La bandera del Perú durante una marcha posterior a la toma de posesión del presidente interino Francisco Sagasti.Credit…Sebastian Castaneda/ReutersEs periodista y escritora peruana.2 de febrero de 2021 a las 12:13 ETAl menos un par de candidatos a la presidencia del Perú y otros tantos expertos han sugerido que la campaña electoral del Perú se traslade al mundo virtual y las redes sociales.Keiko Fujimori y Julio Guzmán (él contagiado recientemente con la COVID-19), dos de los aspirantes que tienen mayor intención de voto —junto con George Forsyth, Verónika Mendoza y Yonhy Lescano—, han hablado de hacer una campaña al menos parcialmente digital por el incremento de los contagios de la segunda ola de la pandemia.Parece un argumento sensato. Perú es el país con más muertos por la COVID-19 por millón de habitantes en Sudamérica. En Lima y Callao, por ejemplo, ya no hay disponible una sola cama en la unidad de cuidados intensivos. En ese delicado contexto la propuesta de los presidenciables podría interpretarse como un gesto de responsabilidad social si no fuera porque aproximadamente el 60 por ciento de la población en el país no tiene acceso a internet en casa.El presidente, Francisco Sagasti, anunció de manera reciente la cuarentena total en la mayoría de ciudades del país al menos para los próximos días, en los que los candidatos no podrán movilizarse por el territorio, salvo las pocas zonas que no están bajo alarma extrema. Y no es seguro que puedan volver a recorrerlo con sus propuestas, lo que de facto nos pondría en la perspectiva de una campaña en gran parte virtual. Es algo que podría favorecer a los candidatos con reconocimiento de nombre y recursos pero a costa de que relegará, inevitablemente, a una enorme porción de la sociedad del juego democrático.La pandemia no solo ha dejado en evidencia que en el Perú no existe un sistema de salud capaz de hacer frente a esta crisis, también ha revelado las enormes falencias de su sistema político. A solo tres meses de las elecciones este sistema no puede garantizar que la mayoría de las personas pueda ejercer un voto informado debido a la abismal brecha digital. A la discriminación económica, sanitaria y laboral, se suma la que limita la participación democrática.La nuestra es una sociedad aún escindida y discriminadora en la que la privatización de los servicios públicos expone a miles a la enfermedad. Venden el oxígeno, suben el precio del paracetamol y es posible que hasta quieran vender la vacuna. En el Perú mueren los más pobres pero no por coronavirus, sino por falta de camas. Y es esa la misma población que tiene poco o ningún acceso a internet.Familiares de un hombre que falleció por la COVID-19 llevan su ataúd en un cementero limeño el 27 de enero de este año.Credit…ReutersSiempre hemos sabido que la peruana es una democracia endeble, casi un espejismo, pero al menos se ficcionaban las decisiones colectivas y parecían respetarse los mecanismos de participación. Pero la crisis pandémica quizás le ha dado una excusa a quienes han dominado la política peruana para encontrar maneras de limitar todavía más el voto. Solo una opinión vertida desde el privilegio puede demostrar tanta ignorancia acerca de nuestras realidades.El discurso concienzudo a favor de la virtualidad de las elecciones solo se lo pueden permitir candidatos que, como Keiko Fujimori, cuentan ya con una red de apoyo de medios de comunicación, leales a su proyecto político desde la década en que gobernaba su padre, o que tienen gran influencia y una buena base de seguidores.La propia Keiko, quien ha disputado ya dos veces las elecciones a la presidencia, se encuentra ahora mismo en régimen de arresto domiciliario con varias investigaciones abiertas por corrupción pero ha prometido un gobierno de “mano dura” contra el coronavirus y la crisis política, en la que lleva meses sumido el Perú precisamente por las maniobras en el Congreso de su partido y sus aliados.Una campaña exclusivamente virtual se la pueden permitir también los candidatos como Guzmán y Forsyth, cercanos al poder y a los círculos empresariales que podrían contar con grandes recursos para invertir en las pautas de internet y redes, además de contar con respaldo mediático.En esas condiciones, quizás la única candidata de izquierda que parte con posibilidades, Verónika Mendoza, de Juntos por el Perú, no solo está en desventaja, sino que sus oportunidades de competir se reducen. Sin un nombre tan reconocible como Fujimori (cuya familia ha dominado la política peruana durante buena parte de los últimos treinta años) o sin el respaldo de las élites empresariales (como Forsyth y Guzmán), su campaña necesita de la calle y del arrastre popular. Por ahora Mendoza no ha hecho grandes eventos de campaña pero sí se está moviendo respetando los protocolos de seguridad. Aún así algunas encuestas la colocan ya en segundo lugar.Perú no es Francia o Estados Unidos, donde también se llevaron a cabo elecciones municipales y presidenciales en plena pandemia, y donde ha funcionado el voto en ausencia y otros protocolos pandémicos. En el Perú eso es imposible. Para emitir su voto, que sigue siendo obligatorio, mucha gente suele desplazarse largas horas desde sus comunidades hasta los centros de votación. Si la campaña pasa a ser solo virtual, ese alto porcentaje de personas no podrá ser parte del proceso previo de los comicios, ni tomar contacto y escuchar las alternativas sobre la mesa para forjarse una opinión. Y eso se llama exclusión.Hace unos días algunos hablaban de postergar las elecciones. Pero pese al nuevo confinamiento y toques de queda recién decretados —que poca gente puede acatar, pues el 70 por ciento de los trabajadores peruanos son informales—, la idea de postergar las elecciones por unos meses no solo no resolvería la brecha digital. También daría más margen a la polarización que se vive todos los días en las calles entre bandos políticos, entre negacionistas de la pandemia, activistas por la reactivación económica a toda costa y defensores de la cuarentena y los protocolos sanitarios.Es necesario emprender un proceso electoral limpio y sin más demora para poner en marcha una nueva etapa tras un año políticamente convulso. Ese debe ser el inicio para que el país entre en la senda de la reconstrucción en el año en que se proyecta celebrar el bicentenario de su independencia. En cuanto se reabra progresivamente la circulación en algunas semanas, las autoridades deberían seguir permitiendo a los partidos difundir su mensaje en igualdad de condiciones y estos esforzarse por hacer un trabajo pedagógico y cívico de cuidados mientras se garantiza la democracia participativa.Eso sí, no olvidemos a la hora de votar que esta disyuntiva sobre la campaña digital ha revelado también algo que es tan obvio como estremecedor: lo alejados que pueden estar de la vida de la gente muchos de los que quieren ser presidentes del Perú. Tal parece que siguen su propia máxima: discrimina y vencerás.Gabriela Wiener es escritora, periodista y colaboradora regular de The New York Times. Es autora de los libros Sexografías, Nueve lunas, Llamada perdida y Dicen de mí.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      In Myanmar Coup, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi Ends as Neither Democracy Hero nor Military Foil

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }Coup in MyanmarDaw Aung San Suu Kyi Is DetainedWhat We KnowPhotosWho Is Aung San Suu Kyi?AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyDemocracy Hero? Military Foil? Myanmar’s Leader Ends Up as NeitherThe army’s detention of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi brought an abrupt end to the theory that she might strike a workable balance between civilian and military power.A demonstration outside Myanmar’s embassy in Bangkok on Monday against the detainment of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.Credit…Adam Dean for The New York TimesFeb. 1, 2021Updated 7:20 p.m. ETIn the years Myanmar was cowed by a military junta, people would tuck away secret photos of Daw Aung San Suu Kyi, talismans of the heroine of democracy who would save her country from a fearsome army even though she was under house arrest.But after she and her party won historic elections in 2015 and again last year by a landslide — cementing civilian government and her own popularity within Myanmar — Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi came to be viewed by the outside world as something altogether different: a fallen patron saint who had made a Faustian pact with the generals and no longer deserved her Nobel Peace Prize.In the end, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, 75, could not protect her people, nor could she placate the generals. On Monday, the military, which had ruled the country for nearly five decades, seized power again in a coup, cutting short the governance of her National League for Democracy after just five years.Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi was detained in a pre-dawn raid, along with her top ministers and a slew of pro-democracy figures. The rounding up of critics of the military continued into Monday night, and the nation’s telecommunications networks suffered constant interruptions.Across the country, government billboards still carried her image and that of her party’s fighting peacock. But the army, under commander in chief Senior Gen. Min Aung Hlaing, was back in charge.The disappearance of Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi, who represented two entirely different archetypes to two different audiences, domestic and foreign, proved her inability to do what so many expected: form a political equipoise with the military with whom she shared power.Hundreds of police officers were deployed across Yangon, the country’s largest city and commercial capital.Credit…The New York TimesBy allowing negotiations with General Min Aung Hlaing to wither, Ms. Aung San Suu Kyi had lost the military’s ear. And by defending the generals in their ethnic cleansing of Rohingya Muslims, she lost the trust of an international community that had championed her for decades.“Aung San Suu Kyi rebuffed international critics by claiming she was not a human-rights activist but rather a politician. But the sad part is she hasn’t been very good at either,” said Phil Robertson, deputy Asia director for Human Rights Watch. “She failed a great moral test by covering up the military’s atrocities against the Rohingya. But the détente with the military never materialized, and her landslide election victory is now undone by a coup.”President Biden, in the first test of his reaction to a coup intended to upend a democratic election, issued a strongly worded statement that seemed designed to differentiate himself from the way his predecessor dealt with human rights issues.“In a democracy, force should never seek to overrule the will of the people or attempt to erase the outcome of a credible election,” he said, using language similar to what he said after the Jan. 6 siege on the U.S. Capitol that sought to overturn his own election. He called on nations to “come together in one voice” to press Myanmar’s military to immediately relinquish power.“The United States is taking note of those who stand with the people of Burma in this difficult hour,” he added, using the former name for Myanmar as it is still used by the U.S. government. More

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      Museveni Faces a More Critical U.S. and E.U. After Ugandan Election

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyThe West’s Patience With Uganda’s Strongman Wanes After a Bloody ElectionThe United States is considering action against the government of President Yoweri Museveni, a longtime ally who has crushed dissent at home. The European Union has also expressed concern.Supporters waiting for the arrival of President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda this week in Kampala, the capital.Credit…Sumy Sadurni/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJan. 30, 2021, 9:31 a.m. ETNAIROBI, Kenya — A bloody and contentious election season in Uganda, in which dozens of people were killed and the principal opposition candidate was placed under de facto house arrest, recently gave a sixth five-year term to President Yoweri Museveni, a staunch U.S. military ally.But now the U.S. State Department says it is considering a range of actions against Mr. Museveni, who, since taking office in 1986, has been among Africa’s leading beneficiaries of American aid, taking in billions of dollars even as he tightened his iron grip on the nation.Mr. Museveni, 76, has suppressed opposing voices for years, often by force, and the campaign leading to this month’s election was marred by the intimidation of opposition candidates and their staffs, particularly Bobi Wine, a pop-star-turned-lawmaker who rose to become the president’s toughest challenger. Violence convulsed the country during the campaign, and election observers and opposition figures contend that electoral fraud contributed to Mr. Museveni’s re-election.“We have significant concerns about Uganda’s recent elections,” a State Department representative said in a statement emailed to The New York Times. “The United States has made clear that we would consider a range of targeted options, including the imposition of visa restrictions, for Ugandan individuals found to be responsible for election-related violence or undermining the democratic process.”The “conduct of the Ugandan authorities during those elections,” the statement read, “is one factor that will be considered as we make determinations on future U.S. assistance.”Mr. Museveni, right, has suppressed opposing voices for years, often by force.Credit…Luke Dray/Getty ImagesOther nations have also voiced concern over how the postelection period in Uganda has unfolded. A spokesperson for the European Union said the bloc was “gravely concerned by the continued harassment of political actors and parts of civil society” and continued to “remain attentive to the situation on the ground.”Mr. Museveni has reportedly been meeting with foreign diplomats in recent days, as concerns mounted about the conduct of the vote, and many Western and African partners have yet to formally congratulate him. The Kenyan presidency deleted a Facebook post congratulating him after it was widely criticized and Facebook erroneously flagged it as containing “false” information.Before, during and after the vote, journalists and independent observers were kept from closely watching the proceedings, and the government refused accreditation to most of the observers the U.S. mission in Uganda had intended to deploy. A nationwide internet shutdown restricted the flow of information.As the election results trickled in, the authorities surrounded Mr. Wine’s home, refused to let him out and even prevented the U.S. ambassador from paying him a visit. Security officers withdrew from his home this week after a court ruling, but they continue to maintain roadblocks nearby, and they surround his party’s headquarters. Mr. Wine, 38, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, maintains that the election was rigged in Mr. Museveni’s favor and plans to present evidence in court on Monday challenging the results.For decades, Mr. Museveni has received financial and diplomatic support from the United States and other Western nations. And he has promoted his regime as a guarantor of stability not just in Uganda — which was torn by coups and violence before he took the helm — but also in the surrounding regions of East and Central Africa.Yet under him, Uganda has repeatedly sent troops across its borders to take sides in conflicts in neighboring countries. And although Mr. Museveni welcomed many refugees from South Sudan, independent researchers have reported that his government clandestinely supplied weapons used to stoke the war there that cost the lives of nearly 400,000 people.The opposition leader Bobi Wine speaking with reporters this week at his home, where he has been held under house arrest.Credit…Nicholas Bamulanzeki/Associated Press“He’s been the region’s pyromaniac since he came to power, whether we are talking about Sudan, South Sudan or Rwanda or the Democratic Republic of Congo,” said Helen Epstein, the author of “Another Fine Mess: America, Uganda and the War on Terror.” “His army has intervened everywhere, to the detriment of peace.”Every year, the United States alone provides more than $970 million to Uganda, supporting the military, the education and agricultural sectors, and antiretroviral treatment for almost a million H.I.V.-positive Ugandans.Uganda has in turn partnered with the United States in working to quell terrorism, deploying more than 6,200 troops to the African Union mission in Somalia that is battling the Qaeda-linked group al-Shabab. Thousands of Ugandans have served as guards on American bases in Iraq and Afghanistan. And Uganda has been lauded as one of the best places to be a refugee, with those seeking asylum given land and the ability to work and move around.But as Mr. Museveni continued to curry favor with the West and receive support from financial institutions like the World Bank, his government “has taken advantage of these resources and positive images to undermine the very interests it is lauded for safeguarding and to pursue its own agenda instead,” said Michael Mutyaba, an independent researcher on Ugandan politics.At home, Mr. Museveni has been criticized for clamping down on the opposition, introducing anti-gay legislation and unleashing the security forces on civilians. Waves of scandals have also shown how officials embezzled millions of dollars in government funds, along with reports of development aid being diverted to the military.Police officers at a checkpoint on a street outside Mr. Wine’s home in the days after the election.Credit…Yasuyoshi Chiba/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn 2005, he engineered the repeal of term limits so that he could remain in power. In 2018, he signed a law that scrapped the presidential age limit of 75.Observers like Ms. Epstein say the violence around the election, and the clampdown on opposition figures like Mr. Wine — including by dragging him out of his vehicle while he talked with reporters on live video — drew global condemnation and might tip things this time round.Before and after the Jan. 14 election, Senators Bob Menendez of New Jersey and Chris Coons of Delaware; Jake Sullivan, President Biden’s national security adviser; a group of donor nations, including Canada and members of the European Union; and United Nations experts all denounced the government’s conduct.“I think finally people are beginning to wake up” to the reality of Mr. Museveni’s Uganda, Ms. Epstein said.If so, that would undermine the standing Mr. Museveni has cultivated as an elder statesman in East Africa, said Angelo Izama, a Ugandan political analyst.“If he continues taking these body blows to his reputation at home,” Mr. Izama said, “I think he’s going to lose his standing not only in the region but also gradually lose the Western powers who are increasingly determined to align and change their tack on how they deal with Uganda.”Supporters of Mr. Museveni celebrating in Kampala this month after he secured a sixth term in office.Credit…Sumy Sadurni/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBut Ken O. Opalo, an assistant professor at Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service, said that while donor relations with Uganda might change, it remains to be seen whether these changes will be substantial.Western countries, he said, have almost always erred on the side of maintaining their relationships with Mr. Museveni’s government instead of pushing him to bring in much-needed reforms.“Museveni knows this fickleness and has exploited it masterfully over the years,” Mr. Opalo said.And while the “Biden administration will say the right things,” Mr. Opalo said he was “less optimistic about what it will be able to do, and whether such action would necessarily lead to change for the better in Uganda.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More