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      Abbas Announces Palestinian Elections After Years of Paralysis

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyAbbas Announces Palestinian Elections After Years of ParalysisThe decree by President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority was viewed by analysts as a bid to lift his standing with the Biden administration. Skeptics expressed doubt the vote would happen.President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority in September. Mr. Abbas announced plans for presidential and parliamentary elections.Credit…Pool photo by Alaa BadarnehIsabel Kershner and Jan. 15, 2021Updated 8:18 p.m. ETJERUSALEM — Sixteen years after he was elected for what was meant to be a four-year term, President Mahmoud Abbas of the Palestinian Authority announced on Friday that presidential and parliamentary elections would be held in the spring and summer.The announcement appeared to be part of an effort to get the divided Palestinian house in order and project at least a semblance of unity as the Palestinian Authority prepares to repair ties with Washington and the incoming Biden administration after a disastrous few years of discord and disconnect under President Trump.The presidential decree stated that the voting for the long-defunct Palestinian Legislative Council would take place on May 22, followed by presidential elections on July 31. Mr. Abbas, 85, the leader of Fatah, the mainstream Palestinian party, was last elected to office in early 2005 after the death of his predecessor, Yasir Arafat.Analysts said they believed that Mr. Abbas was now seeking to renew his legitimacy in the eyes of the international community, especially with the imminent arrival of President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr. in the White House, which they said Mr. Abbas hoped would herald a return to negotiations with Israel.“He doesn’t want to hear from anyone that he doesn’t represent the Palestinian people and that he’s not in control of Gaza,” said Jihad Harb, an expert on Palestinian politics.The last time the Palestinians went to the polls, it did not end happily.In 2006 a rival party representing Hamas, the Islamic militant group, trounced Fatah in elections for the Legislative Council, leading to a year and a half of uneasy power sharing.The United States and much of the West refused to work with the unity government because Hamas, which they considered a terrorist organization, would not accept international demands such as renouncing violence and recognizing Israel’s right to exist.A brief civil war between the two groups ensued in the coastal territory of Gaza. It ended in June 2007, with Hamas seizing control there after routing forces loyal to Mr. Abbas and confining his authority to parts of the occupied West Bank.Mr. Abbas responded by forming an emergency government based in the West Bank, but Hamas officials refused to recognize it. The political and geographical schism, as well as the collapse of a series of reconciliation agreements, has since stymied any semblance of a functioning democratic process.Supporters of Hamas celebrated in the southern Gaza Strip after a parliamentary victory in 2006.Credit…Shawn Baldwin for The New York TimesA behind-the-scenes succession race has long been underway in the Palestinian Authority, and Mr. Abbas said a few years ago that he did not want to run again for the presidency.But there was no hint on Friday he intended to step down, and the election announcement was greeted with a degree of skepticism because Mr. Abbas has in the past announced plans for elections that never took place.In February 2011, for example, Mr. Abbas announced that elections would be held in September of that year, but Hamas rejected the idea and they were called off.Hamas welcomed Mr. Abbas’s new decree, saying in a statement that it was keen to make the elections “successful.” It added that work was needed to create an atmosphere for free and fair elections, and that Hamas had shown what it called great flexibility in recent months “out of a belief that the decision belongs to the people.”Still, some analysts expressed significant doubts about whether Mr. Abbas was interested in ultimately allowing the elections to go ahead, and the two rival Palestinian factions have not explained publicly how they will hold elections while the West Bank and Gaza are ruled by the separate groups.“These decrees are just a maneuver to buy time,” said Ghaith al-Omari, a former adviser to Mr. Abbas and a fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy. “The deep suspicion between Abbas and Hamas still holds, and the reasons that have prevented elections in the past are still unchanged.”Nabil Amr, a veteran figure in Fatah and a former information minister, described the elections decree as “a preliminary practical step.” But he warned that Palestinians who stood to lose from the elections could work to impede them. “There are Palestinians whose privileges will be taken away if the elections are held, so they will oppose it,” he said.It remains unclear whether Hamas will accept the authority of the court that Mr. Abbas plans to establish to adjudicate election disputes, how freely candidates will be able to campaign and whether Mr. Abbas will agree to allow Hamas’s security forces, which he considers illegitimate, to secure polling booths in Gaza.Israel may also decide to bar Palestinians from voting in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem — a potential obstacle that Mr. Abbas has previously said would prevent elections from going forward.Azzam al-Ahmad, a member of the Fatah Central Committee, said Palestinian officials would ask Israel to refrain from “placing impediments” on the Palestinians voting in East Jerusalem, but added that he expected the Israelis would do so regardless.Both Hamas and Fatah are convinced that they need to hold to elections, said Ghassan Khatib, a political scientist at Birzeit University in the West Bank, but it was unclear what kind of an election it would be.“Will it be a real election, or will it be a staged election that will renew the legitimacy of the same old guards?” he said. “My fear is that it’s a kind of election that is not going to make any change — except that it will give the superficial impression that we are more legitimate now.”More broadly, he wondered how the election could be pulled off after such a long and bitter split.“How are we going to conduct an election where the political system is divided completely into two separate election systems, two judicial systems, two security apparatuses, two everythings?” Mr. Khatib said. “That’s the question everyone is asking.”Patrick Kingsley contributed reporting from Jerusalem and Mohammed Najib from Ramallah, West Bank.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Uganda Forces Surround Home of Opposition Leader Bobi Wine

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUgandan Forces Surround Home of Leading Opposition FigureOne day after the election, Bobi Wine, the top rival to the incumbent president, sounded an alert from his home, saying, “We are under siege.”Bobi Wine, the country’s leading opposition presidential candidate, said that Ugandan military forces were “targeting” his life after they surrounded and breached his compound on Friday, a day after the general election.CreditCredit…Yasuyoshi Chiba/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJan. 15, 2021Updated 2:59 p.m. ETNAIROBI, Kenya — Ugandan security forces on Friday surrounded and then breached the compound of Bobi Wine, the country’s leading opposition candidate, a day after a contentious general election that he said was marred by widespread “fraud and violence.”The breach, reported by Mr. Wine and confirmed by several people involved in his campaign, took place as the country’s electoral commission released partial results of the general election that showed the incumbent president, Yoweri Museveni, in the lead. Mr. Wine’s lawyer said the siege effectively constituted house arrest.Mr. Wine, 38, was the most potent challenger to Mr. Museveni, a 76-year-old who has ruled the country for 35 years. The tense election campaign was marked by a crackdown on opposition figures like Mr. Wine and others, which sparked nationwide protests that were put down by police and resulted in the killing of more than 50 people. An internet shutdown that started just before Election Day is still in place.With ballots from almost half of the country’s polling stations counted, preliminary results show Mr. Museveni with more than 62 percent of the vote and Mr. Wine with 29 percent, according to the country’s electoral commission.On Friday afternoon, Mr. Wine said that forces with the Ugandan military along with plainclothes officers carrying guns broke into his compound in the capital, Kampala.“We are under siege,” Mr. Wine, a musician-turned lawmaker whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, said in a post on Twitter. “The military has jumped over the fence and has now taken control of our home.”“None of these military intruders is talking to us,” he added in another tweet. “We are in serious trouble.”Spokesmen for the government and the Kampala police did not immediately respond to requests for comment.The news of the break-in was confirmed by Jeffrey Smith, founder of Vanguard Africa, a nonprofit based in Washington that has worked with Mr. Wine for three years.Presidential candidate Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine, walking outside his home in Magere on Friday.Credit…Yasuyoshi Chiba/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn an interview, Mr. Smith said he got a call from Mr. Wine after 4:30 p.m. Kampala time during which he heard “lots of shouting and banging.” During the call, which lasted five minutes, Mr. Wine told him that security officers had assaulted some of his staff members and arrested a gardener, Mr. Smith said.Bruce Afran, Mr. Wine’s lawyer, later said that by surrounding his home, the government was placing him “under house arrest.”“The military are registering anyone who enters his house and inspecting vehicles as they leave to be sure he is not inside and leaving the property,” he said in an interview.Mr. Wine has had numerous confrontations with security forces, even before he filed his candidacy for president last November.In 2018, Mr. Wine was arrested and beaten by security forces and left for the United States to seek medical treatment. On the campaign trail, Mr. Wine was arrested and charged with breaching coronavirus rules and was pulled out of his car while speaking in an online news conference.The day before the election, authorities forced his private security guards to withdraw from protecting his home, Mr. Afran said.He filed a petition in the International Criminal Court in early January accusing top government officials of sanctioning a wave of violence and attempting to kill him.In a news conference earlier on Friday at his residence, Mr. Wine sounded upbeat about his prospects of winning and cast doubt on the early results.“We have certainly won this election and we have won it by far,” Mr. Wine said. “The people of Uganda will and must reject the blatant usurpation of their will and their voice.”AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Merkel’s Party to Choose New Leader, and Possible Successor as Chancellor

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyMerkel’s Party to Choose New Leader, and Possible Successor as ChancellorAfter nearly a year of jockeying, no clear front-runner has emerged to lead Germany’s Christian Democratic Union. Three men are vying for delegates’ votes this weekend.Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany, shown last month, has led her country for the past 15 years. She stepped down as party leader in 2018.Credit…Michael Kappeler/DPA, via Associated PressJan. 15, 2021, 9:28 a.m. ETBERLIN — Germany’s largest political party will choose a new leader on Saturday, with the winner well positioned to succeed Angela Merkel as the next chancellor of Europe’s leading economy.Regardless of the result, it will signal a new chapter for Germany and Europe, where the staid but steady leadership of Ms. Merkel has been a constant for the past 15 years. She earned respect for holding Europe together through repeated crises and, most recently, her deft handling of the coronavirus pandemic over the past year.“In a sense, an era is ending,” said Herfried Münkler, a political scientist at Humboldt University in Berlin. “But in certain basic positions, such as the geopolitical situation and the economic conditions within the E.U., that all remains unchanged, regardless of who’s the chancellor.”German voters will elect a new government on Sept. 26, and Ms. Merkel’s conservative Christian Democratic Union remains the country’s most popular party, according to a survey by Infratest/Dimap last week.Ms. Merkel led the party for 18 years, stepping down in 2018. She was replaced by one-time heir apparent Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, who announced her own departure nearly a year ago over internal party strife. Since then, three men have been jockeying for the leadership position. But no clear front-runner has emerged.While all three candidates appear to have a lot in common — all male, all Roman Catholic, all from the western German state of North Rhine-Westphalia — each harbors a divergent vision of the future of the party that has governed Germany for 50 of the past 70 years.Here is a look at the candidates and where their leadership could take Germany:Leadership skills have been the strongest campaign point for the governor of Germany’s North Rhine-Westphalia state, Armin Laschet.Credit…Pool photo by Marius BeckerArmin Laschet — the CentristIn terms of experience, Mr. Laschet, the governor of Germany’s most populous state, North Rhine-Westphalia since 2017, has the strongest hand. The only candidate who has won an election and served as a governor, the 59-year-old Mr. Laschet has nevertheless struggled to generate enthusiasm for his campaign.He announced his candidacy last February, flanked by Ms. Merkel’s health minister, Jens Spahn, who ranked above the chancellor as Germany’s most popular politician in a survey in late December. Mr. Spahn had sought the party leadership position in 2018, but this time around, he pledged to back Mr. Laschet.The popularity of Mr. Spahn and another man who is not vying for party leadership, Markus Söder, the governor of Bavaria, has led top Christian Democratic officials to sever the decision over who will run for chancellor in elections from the party leader vote on Saturday. That means that whoever is chosen party leader will not necessarily be the next chancellor.Mr. Spahn’s backing of Mr. Laschet was supposed to garner support from those who saw in the 40-year-old Mr. Spahn a chance to rejuvenate the party. But instead, it has shifted the focus to a possible scenario in which the health minister could run for chancellor while Mr. Laschet remains party leader.Mr. Laschet is seen as the candidate most likely to continue Ms. Merkel’s centrist style of stable politics. He is a strong supporter of German industry and shares the chancellor’s idea that Germany benefits from diversity and integration.Staunchly pro-European, Mr. Laschet also considers a strong relationship with Russia as central to Germany’s success, although he views the United States and NATO as essential to lasting security in Europe.Friedrich Merz has not held political office since 2002, when Ms. Merkel ousted him as leader of the Christian Democrats’ party caucus in Parliament.Credit…Pool photo by Michael KappelerFriedrich Merz — the ConservativeMr. Merz, a former lawmaker, is viewed as the candidate most likely to break with Ms. Merkel’s style of leadership and return the party to its more traditional conservative identity. At the same time, he has had to reassure voters that the would not move “one millimeter” toward the far-right Alternative for Germany.Mr. Merz, 65, has not held political office since 2002, when Ms. Merkel pushed him out as leader of the Christian Democrats’ party caucus in Parliament. Three years later, he left politics for the private sector, where he amassed a personal fortune that he has played down in the campaign, portraying himself as upper-middle class instead of a millionaire.He is the least popular with women, who flocked to the party under Ms. Merkel’s leadership and became an important voting bloc. Many recall that Mr. Merz voted against criminalizing rape within marriage in 1997, and Anja Karliczek, Germany’s minister for education, has warned that his penchant for a sharp quip on hot-button issues such as immigration could threaten party cohesion.But that style is popular with young conservatives and the party’s right flank, which welcomes his criticism of Ms. Merkel’s decision to take in nearly 1 million migrants in 2015 and his calls to return to tighter fiscal policy.A proponent of strong ties between Europe and the United States, Mr. Merz views a deeply integrated European Union more skeptically and criticized the recent 1.8 trillion euro, or $2.2 trillion, stimulus and budget package agreed to in Brussels, which included issuing joint debt — long a no-go for Germany. Norbert Röttgen, a former environment minister, has focused on issues that appeal to younger voters, including climate change and digitization.Credit…Pool photo by Christoph SoederNorbert Röttgen — the Dark HorseMr. Röttgen, a former environment minister under Ms. Merkel, has been seen as less of a favorite, although he recently had a strong showing in polls. It is probably not enough, however, to ensure him a clear shot at the party leadership. Still, the 55-year-old foreign policy expert could carve out a path to the top if the race comes down to a runoff between him and Mr. Merz.Mr. Röttgen lost his post as environment minister in 2012 after a poor performance in the race for governor of North Rhine-Westphalia that year. Since then, he has become a leading foreign policy expert in Parliament and took many by surprise when he entered the race for the party leadership.Mr. Röttgen has built a following among younger voters and women, pointing to his role in working to transform the German economy to one powered by green energy and emphasizing the importance of improving digital infrastructure and know-how to position the country for a future where it can compete with China or the United States.Mr. Röttgen says he wants to build on the issues of diversity and equality championed by Ms. Merkel, ensuring the conservative Christian Democrats remain relevant in the face of a rise in popularity of the Greens, especially among young urban voters. He is in favor of continued European integration and strong ties to Washington, but he says that Germany needs to take a stronger role in the trans-Atlantic relationship.He many have enhanced his appeal to party delegates who have an eye on the general election in the fall with his willingness to cede the candidacy for chancellor if it is in the party’s best interests, stressing the importance of teamwork over individualism.Christopher F. Schuetze More

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      North Korea Unveils New Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyNorth Korea Unveils New Submarine-Launched Ballistic MissileDays before President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s inauguration, the North made its latest demonstration of its nuclear might at a Pyongyang military parade. North Korean state media released this photo of missiles at a military parade in Pyongyang, the capital, on Thursday night.Credit…Korean Central News Agency, via Associated PressJan. 15, 2021, 7:01 a.m. ETSEOUL, South Korea — A month before the U.S. presidential election, North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, held a military parade that featured what appeared to be the country’s largest-ever intercontinental ballistic missile. This week, just days before President-elect Joseph R. Biden Jr.’s inauguration, the North Korean dictator held another parade, showing off a new submarine-launched ballistic missile.To the Kim regime, the nighttime military parades in Pyongyang, the capital, were demonstrations of power meant to boost domestic morale amid crippling economic sanctions. To the Biden administration, they foreshadow what could become the incoming president’s greatest foreign policy challenge.The timing of the two flashy exhibitions has drawn attention to the diplomatic freeze between the two countries. In North Korea, Mr. Biden is inheriting a rival whose nuclear ambition is bolder and more dangerous than it was four years ago, when President Barack Obama left office.The parades underscored that North Korea has been silently ramping up its nuclear capability for years, even as President Trump claimed that his top-down, personality-driven diplomacy with Mr. Kim meant the North was “no longer a nuclear threat.”“If anything, the North’s nuclear threat has only grown,” said Yun Duk-min, a former chancellor of the Korea National Diplomatic Academy in Seoul. “The military parade is evidence.”This week’s parade came at the end of the eight-day congress held by North Korea’s ruling Workers’ Party, which was closely monitored by outside analysts for clues to how Mr. Kim might recalibrate his policy toward Washington.Kim Jong-un, center, the North’s leader, recently promised to “further strengthen our nuclear deterrence.”Credit…Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Kim used the congress to celebrate the North’s nuclear arsenal as one of ​his proudest achievements, and to apologize to his people for the deepening economic woes caused by the pandemic and the devastating international sanctions imposed since the country’s fourth nuclear test in 2016.Mr. Kim’s historic summits with Mr. Trump in Singapore and Vietnam failed to end those sanctions. With his back against the wall and diplomacy with the United States at a standstill, some experts warn that Mr. Kim may return to testing missiles to bring Washington back to the negotiating table with more attractive proposals.North Korea has a history of retreating deeper into isolation and raising tensions to strengthen its leverage when negotiations do not lead to concessions, or when a new American president takes office.“North Korea leaves little doubt about its intentions: It wanted to be treated as an equal in nuclear arms reduction talks with the United States,” said Cheon Seong-whun, a former director of the Korea Institute for National Unification, a think tank in Seoul. “The new weapons disclosed during two parades have never been tested before and we don’t know whether they are actually working,” Mr. Cheon said. “But we know in what direction North Korea is headed.” The earlier parade, held on Oct. 10 to mark a party anniversary, unveiled what appeared to be the largest intercontinental ballistic missile the North had ever built. It also featured a Pukguksong-4, a new version of a submarine-launched ballistic missile, or SLBM. Neither weapon has been tested.The SLBM displayed during the parade on Thursday look​ed like yet another upgraded, untested version of the one North Korea has been developing under Mr. Kim, along with its Hwasong land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles.Another state media image from the parade on Thursday.Credit…Korean Central News Agency, via Associated PressNorth Korea tested three Hwasong ICBMs in 2017. After the last such test, it claimed that it could now target the continental United States with a nuclear warhead.Images of this week’s parade released through state media showed Mr. Kim proudly observing the neat columns of missiles, rockets, tanks and goose-stepping soldiers marching across the main plaza in Pyongyang, named after his grandfather, the North’s founder, Kim Il-sung.The parade also featured fireworks and military planes firing flares in the night sky as crowds of people danced at the plaza, state media reported on Friday.Kim Jong-un has vowed to strengthen the North’s nuclear deterrent ​since his talks with Mr. Trump stalled​ in 2019​. And as the economy continues to deteriorate, his bargaining opportunities are limited.“The armed forces of the Republic will strictly contain any military threats in the region of the Korean Peninsula and preemptively use the strongest offensive power to thoroughly smash the hostile forces if they jeopardize the security of our state even a bit,” Defense Minister Kim Jong-gwan of North Korea was quoted as saying during the parade. (He was referring to the North, whose formal name is the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.)At the party congress, Mr. Kim made it clear that the steep economic challenges facing the North would not affect his weapons program. He called his nuclear arsenal the greatest achievement “in the history of the Korean nation” and vowed to “further strengthen our nuclear deterrence.”Dancing in Pyongyang on Thursday.Credit…Korean Central News Agency, via Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHe also offered an unusually detailed wish list of weapons, from “hypersonic gliding-flight warheads” and military reconnaissance satellites to “ultramodern tactical nuclear weapons,” which have become a growing concern for the United States and allies in the region, including South Korea and Japan.North Korea has seen its nuclear force as the best tool for ensuring the continuity of the Kim family’s dynastic rule, and as a bargaining chip to extract economic and other concessions from the United States. During the party congress, Mr. Kim claimed that his nuclear weapons had made North Korea safer from American threats, putting it in a better position to rebuild its economy.His hardening stance reflects “deep rage and disappointment” after his failed negotiations with Mr. Trump, said Lee Byong-chul, a North Korea expert at the Institute for Far Eastern Studies at Kyungnam University in South Korea.The government of South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, helped to arrange the Trump-Kim summits, which were centered on cultivating personal trust between the two leaders with the hope of reaching a breakthrough. Mr. Trump wanted a nuclear-free peninsula, and Mr. Kim wanted an end to the sanctions. Their meetings went nowhere, though North Korea has since refrained from major provocations as it waited out the confusion of the American presidential election.The election is now over, but chaos has only deepened in the United States, and Mr. Kim’s patience may be running thin. “We can expect him to raise tensions depending on whether and how Biden responds,” said Mr. Lee.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      El ‘sálvese quien pueda’ electoral no sacará a Ecuador de la crisis

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpiniónSupported byContinue reading the main storyPeriscopio electoralEl ‘sálvese quien pueda’ electoral no sacará a Ecuador de la crisisLa campaña electoral en Ecuador ha revelado el estado actual del país: se vive un espíritu de resignación y apatía.Una mujer ve una pancarta de la campaña de Guillermo Lasso en Quito, la capital de Ecuador, el 11 de enero de 2021Credit…Jose Jacome/EPA vía ShutterstockEs escritor ecuatoriano.15 de enero de 2021QUITO — Ecuador está ya adentrado en el ciclo electoral. El 7 de febrero serán las elecciones generales —en las que se elegirá al nuevo presidente y a los miembros de la Asamblea Nacional— y el camino para llegar a ellas ha sido revelador. Nos ha mostrado el estado actual del país: con las elecciones a la puerta, y en medio de un panorama económico y de salud desolador, en Ecuador se vive un espíritu de resignación.El año pasado se filtró un video donde uno de los candidatos a la presidencia, el conservador Guillermo Lasso, hablaba sobre sus rivales y se presentaba como la única alternativa libre de las taras de los partidos tradicionales. Al referirse al posible voto por Álvaro Noboa, un empresario millonario que ha sido seis veces candidato a la presidencia, Lasso soltó una mala palabra: “Tampoco podemos decir […]: ‘Vota por Álvaro, ya, qué chuchas’”. Ese “ya, qué chuchas” significa “ya nada importa”. Sin alternativas políticas con plataformas claras en medio de una sobreoferta de opciones en la boleta, la frase accidentalmente condensa el espíritu de la democracia en Ecuador rumbo a las elecciones: apatía, escepticismo y desgaste.Pero los ecuatorianos no debemos permitir que líderes con propuestas disparatadas (o sin plataformas realistas) guíen nuestro destino. Debemos hacer a un lado el voto de “ya nada importa” y adoptar una actitud proactiva y ciudadana frente a los grandes desafíos de nuestro futuro inmediato.Para finales de diciembre se habían inscrito 16 binomios —el mayor número desde el retorno del Ecuador a la democracia— de los cuales solo tres tienen posibilidades numéricas de llegar a la presidencia o, al menos, a una segunda vuelta: la fórmula del conservador Guillermo Lasso, la del correísta Andrés Arauz y la de Yaku Pérez Guartambel, por Pachakutik —el brazo político del movimiento indígena ecuatoriano—. Las otras candidaturas no superan el 2 por ciento de la intención del voto y, sin embargo, no lucen dispuestas a formar frentes unidos o alianzas estratégicas ni a deponer sus campañas. Le hacen la vista gorda a la opinión popular: algunas encuestas indican que hasta un 37 por ciento de los electores planea anular su voto o votar en blanco.Aunque finalmente Noboa —quien se había convertido desde hace años en un chiste nacional — no logró ser candidato, llegó a disputarse los primeros lugares en intención de voto después de su anuncio. Sus propuestas ingenuas y su extravagancia para muchos lucían menos desalentadoras que las otras candidaturas. Lo suficiente, al menos, para convencerlo de intentar lanzarse.Pese a que hay 16 candidaturas, en Ecuador no existen 16 visiones de país. Tampoco hay una contienda de ideas y proyectos, sino la “ley del sálvese quien pueda” entre la clase política y la indiferencia de una parte de la población (aunque el 90 por ciento de los encuestados en un sondeo opina que el rumbo del país está equivocado). El voto “ya, qué chuchas” es una advertencia de lo que sucede cuando la democracia y sus instituciones pierden credibilidad. Una cultura democrática débil cede terreno, voz y legitimidad a las propuestas más estridentes y demagógicas. Es un peligro real ante el que estamos ahora los ecuatorianos.La falta de alternativas se puede traducir en una democracia frágil en medio de un escenario poco favorable: con el desafío sanitario de la pandemia y la economía profundamente golpeada en 2020. Según el Banco Mundial, la ecuatoriana fue la tercera economía que más decreció de Sudamérica el año pasado.La frase que le endilgó Lasso al voto por Noboa se convirtió en un espejo para Ecuador. Por un lado, refleja una disputa entre las fuerzas políticas dominantes de los últimos diez años y, por otro, el caos. Y, entre los ciudadanos, un cierto aire de apatía reflejado en el voto nulo y el escepticismo.¿Cómo votarán, entonces, los ecuatorianos? La opción de la alternativa menos mala ha sido una constante en los últimos años, con políticos que se aprovechan de cuán baja está la barra de expectativas: incluso hay un candidato rechazado por su propio partido. Por una parte nuestros políticos tienen que profesionalizarse, y, por otra, los ciudadanos tendríamos que reclamar mejores opciones políticas. Para ambos casos, debemos librarnos del “ya qué chuchas”.En estos meses de campaña, hemos visto que las tres candidaturas más viables caen en la demagogia. Los correístas se han centrado en la promesa mesiánica —y sin sustento económico alguno— de regalar mil dólares a un millón de personas. Lasso, miembro del Opus Dei, en los últimos meses ofreció legalizar el porte de armas en el sector rural. Y el tercer candidato, Yaku Pérez, ha prometido un gobierno ambientalista que, al mismo tiempo, recuperaría el subsidio a los combustibles.Hay mucho en juego como para aceptar estas propuestas desarticuladas: Ecuador deberá navegar los siguientes años en la realidad pospandémica con una región en crisis y con desafíos de vacunación enormes. También tendrá que sentar las bases para resolver nuestros grandes problemas históricos, de la consolidación de nuestra democracia (recordemos que hace solo unos años dominó en el país un gobierno con espíritu caudillista) y la erradicación de la corrupción (no con promesas al aire, sino con cambios estructurales, transparencia y ejercicios independientes de rendición de cuentas).Los partidos son, en teoría, herramientas de participación ciudadana pero se convierten en obstáculos cuando están así de desconectados con la realidad nacional. De modo que hay un reto doble para la nación: por un parte, los partidos políticos deben replantear sus agendas y plataformas y conectarse de nuevo con la complicada realidad del país (y de la región). Y, por otra parte, los ciudadanos debemos eliminar el queimportismo y la apatía para reclamar una clase política profesional que haga a un lado la improvisación y opte por el compromiso democrático.Cuando el futuro de un país y su estabilidad democrática (después de años de atropellos institucionales) está en la línea, a todos debe importarnos quién llega al Palacio del Carondelet.Iván Ulchur-Rota es escritor y comediante en Ecuador.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Uganda Election 2021: What's at Stake?

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUgandans Are Voting. Will Their President of 35 Years Win Again?Voting is underway in the East African nation, with the long-serving leader, President Yoweri Museveni, facing 10 rivals, including Bobi Wine, a lawmaker and musician.Waiting to vote in Kampala, the capital of Uganda, on Thursday. The campaign has been marked by violence, killings and arbitrary arrests.Credit…Luke Dray/Getty ImagesJan. 14, 2021Updated 6:54 a.m. ETUgandans began voting on Thursday in a hotly contested election that will decide whether President Yoweri Museveni wins a sixth term in office and continues his 35-year rule of the country or is unseated by one of 10 rivals, including a leading opposition candidate, Bobi Wine, a rapper-turned-lawmaker.The vote, which has been unexpectedly competitive despite fierce government attempts to stifle the opposition, has drawn global attention as a test of how democracy might take hold in a country more accustomed to autocratic rule. The election is the fourth in the East African nation since multiparty politics was restored in 2005, two decades after Mr. Museveni first came to power and clamped down on competing parties.The ballot also comes several months after the government introduced strict rules to curb the coronavirus pandemic — measures that have kept confirmed caseloads under 38,000, but which human rights groups said were used to crack down on critics and restrict political gatherings.In a campaign marked by violence, killings and arbitrary arrests, observers will be watching for delays in ballot deliveries, voter intimidation and irregularities in vote tallying, along with possible unrest that could ensue in the coming days. The results of the election are expected late on Saturday.Who are the main presidential candidates?More than 18 million voters have registered for the election, where they will cast ballots for presidential, parliamentary and local representatives. There are 11 presidential candidates vying for the leadership of Uganda over the next five years, and a candidate must win more than 50 percent of the vote to avoid a runoff.Most prominent among them is the incumbent, Mr. Museveni, a former rebel who came to power in January 1986 and has since ruled the country with an iron grip. At 76, Mr. Museveni is one of Africa’s longest-serving leaders.His main rival is Mr. Wine, a 38-year-old musician who was elected to Parliament in 2017. Mr. Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has long used his music to lament the state of the country under Mr. Museveni and aims to galvanize the youth vote to unseat him. During the campaign, security forces have beaten and tear-gassed Mr. Wine and he was charged in court for flouting coronavirus rules.One of the main opposition candidates, Bobi Wine, after casting his ballot in Magere, Uganda, on Thursday. Mr. Wine, a rapper-turned-lawmaker, has long used his music to lament the state of the country.Credit…Sumy Sadurni/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesIn early January, he filed a petition with the International Criminal Court accusing Mr. Museveni’s government of authorizing a wave of violence against political figures and human rights lawyers — including attempts to kill him.Other candidates in the election have also been targeted, including Patrick Amuriat, who is representing the Forum for Democratic Change party. The authorities have beaten and detained Mr. Amuriat on several occasions, including the day he filed his candidacy papers in November.Nancy Kalembe Linda, a former banker and news anchor, is the only female candidate running for president.How has Museveni held on to power for so long?Since Uganda’s independence from Britain in 1962, there has been no peaceful handover of power. When Mr. Museveni seized the reins in 1986, on the back of an armed uprising, he promised that his government would further the cause of competitive politics in a nation that had endured years of colonialism, and then dictatorship and lawlessness under the rule of both Milton Obote and Idi Amin.But in the decades since, Mr. Museveni and the ruling National Resistance Movement have clung to power through politicized prosecution of opposition figures, while undermining independent media and civil society.Campaign posters at a bus stop in Kampala for President Yoweri Museveni, who has been in power for 35 years and is running for his sixth term.Credit…Sumy Sadurni/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Museveni’s government has “insisted that its political opponents were ‘foreign agents’ funded by outsiders, that they were self-interested, that they were immoral and disposed against Ugandans’ interest,” said Derek R. Peterson, a professor of history and African studies at the University of Michigan.Elections, when they have taken place, have been riddled with allegations of fraud and irregularities.In 2018, Mr. Museveni signed a law that scrapped the presidential age limit of 75, a move that critics said allowed him to seek re-election this year. Opposition legislators and lawyers challenged the amendment, but the Supreme Court upheld it in 2019.How has the government tried to control the flow of information?Since the campaign kicked off in early November, journalists have faced harassment and beatings from security forces as they covered opposition candidates. The authorities introduced stringent accreditation rules for reporters, and deported at least one foreign crew, according to the nonprofit Committee to Protect Journalists.Opposition candidates including Mr. Wine say they have been blocked by the authorities from appearing on radio stations to speak to the public.With limitations on public gatherings because of pandemic restrictions, “social media provided aspirants with a potential way of reaching a large number of prospective voters,” said Jamie Hitchen, an independent researcher who has studied the role of technology in African elections.But the government quickly found ways to undermine their reach on those platforms, too. In December, the government asked Google to block 14 YouTube channels, mostly linked to the opposition. Mr. Museveni also announced this week that he had ordered Facebook to be blocked in the country days after the company took down fake accounts linked to his re-election campaign.As voters headed to the polls on Thursday, internet connectivity remained down across Uganda as the government ordered telecom companies to block access to social media platforms and online messaging applications.What are the main issues at stake?For a long time, Mr. Museveni and his party have cast themselves as a bulwark against a return to the violence and political strife that shaped Uganda in the 1970s and ’80s. But with more than 75 percent of the population under the age of 30, many young people no longer “live in the shadow of history,” Professor Peterson of the University of Michigan said.“They have different aspirations, different fears, and different ambitions” than voters in earlier times, he added.At the polling station in Magere where Mr. Wine voted on Thursday. He has worked to galvanize the youth vote to unseat Mr. Museveni.Credit…Sumy Sadurni/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesKey among the concerns of younger people is the question of jobs. Around 700,000 Ugandans reach working age every year, but only 75,000 new jobs are created annually, according to the World Bank. Many are also frustrated by the corruption that has been rife in Mr. Museveni’s government for decades, and they yearn for better infrastructure and improved public services, including better education opportunities and affordable health care.Is the vote expected to be fair?Previous elections in Uganda have been dogged by irregularities along with reports of ballot stuffing, voter intimidation, and voter fraud. Voters across the country have also previously been denied the ability to cast their ballots, with officials saying that their names were not found on voter registries. Ballots to opposition strongholds, including in the capital Kampala, have also been delivered very late in the past.The validity of this election is already being questioned after observers, including from the United States, pulled out because of lack of accreditation. There have also been reports of the failure of electronic voter identification systems because of the internet shutdown.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More

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      Uganda Blocks Facebook Ahead of Contentious Election

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyUganda Blocks Facebook Ahead of Contentious ElectionPresident Yoweri Museveni accused the company of “arrogance” after it removed fake accounts and pages linked to his re-election campaign.President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda has 10 rivals in the election scheduled for Thursday, including the rapper-turned-lawmaker Bobi Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi.Credit…Baz Ratner/ReutersJan. 13, 2021Updated 5:33 a.m. ETNAIROBI, Kenya — President Yoweri Museveni of Uganda president has blocked Facebook from operating in his country, just days after the social media company removed fake accounts linked to his government ahead of a hotly contested general election set to take place on Thursday.In a televised address late on Tuesday night, Mr. Museveni accused Facebook of “arrogance” and said he had instructed his government to close the platform, along with other social media outlets, although Facebook was the only one he named.“That social channel you are talking about, if it is going to operate in Uganda, it should be used equitably by everybody who has to use it,” Mr. Museveni said. “We cannot tolerate this arrogance of anybody coming to decide for us who is good and who is bad,” he added.The ban on Facebook comes at the end of an election period that has been dogged by a crackdown on the political opposition, harassment of journalists and nationwide protests that have led to at least 54 deaths and hundreds of arrests, according to officials.Mr. Museveni, 76, who is running for a sixth term in office, is facing 10 rivals, including the rapper-turned-lawmaker Bobi Wine, 38. Mr. Wine, whose real name is Robert Kyagulanyi, has been beaten, sprayed with tear gas and charged in court with allegedly flouting coronavirus rules while on the campaign trail. Last week, Mr. Wine filed a complaint with the International Criminal Court accusing Mr. Museveni and other top current and former security officials of sanctioning a wave of violence and human rights violations against citizens, political figures and human rights lawyers.Facebook announced this week that it had taken down a network of accounts and pages in the East African nation that engaged in what it called “coordinated inauthentic behavior” aimed at manipulating public debate around the election. The company said the network was linked to the Government Citizens Interaction Center, an initiative that is part of Uganda’s Ministry of Information and Communications Technology and National Guidance.In a statement, a Facebook representative said the network “used fake and duplicate accounts to manage pages, comment on other people’s content, impersonate users, re-share posts in groups to make them appear more popular than they were.”Facebook’s investigation into the network began after research from the Atlantic Council’s Digital Forensic Research Lab showcased a network of social media accounts that had engaged in a campaign to criticize the opposition and promote Mr. Museveni and the governing party, the National Resistance Movement. After the research was published, Twitter also said it had shut down accounts linked to the election.Hours before Mr. Museveni’s speech, social media users across Uganda confirmed restrictions on their online communications, with the digital rights group NetBlocks reporting that platforms including Facebook, WhatsApp, Instagram and Twitter had been affected. On Wednesday, MTN Uganda, the country’s largest telecommunication company, confirmed it had received a directive from the Uganda Communications Commission to “suspend access and use, direct or otherwise of all social media platforms and online messaging applications over the network until further notice.”Felicia Anthonio, a campaigner with the digital rights nonprofit Access Now, said the authorities had blocked more than 100 virtual private networks, or VPNs, which could help users circumvent the censorship and safely browse the internet.Uganda blocked the internet during the 2016 elections, and in 2018, it introduced a social media tax aimed at raising revenue and curbing what the government called online “gossip.” The move, which was criticized as a threat to freedom of expression, had a negative effect on internet use over all, with millions of Ugandans giving up internet services altogether.In anticipation of another shutdown this week, a group of organizations that work to end internet cutoffs worldwide sent a letter to Mr. Museveni and the leaders of telecom companies in Uganda pleading with them to keep the internet and social media platforms accessible during the election.Mr. Museveni did not heed their call. On Tuesday night, he said the decision to block Facebook was “unfortunate” but “unavoidable.”“I am very sorry about the inconvenience,” he said, adding that he himself had been using the platform to interact with young voters. He has almost a million followers on Facebook and two million on Twitter.Striking a defiant note, Mr. Museveni said that if Facebook was going to “take sides,” then it would not be allowed to operate in the country.“Uganda is ours,” he said.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More