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      Has Latin America Found Its Trump in Javier Milei?

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      The election of Javier Milei, a wild-haired showboating weirdo with five cloned mastiffs and a habit of psychic communion with their departed pet of origin, as president of Argentina has inspired a lot of discussion about the true nature of right-wing populism in our age of general discontent.Milei has many of the signifiers of a Trumpian politics: the gonzo energy, the criticism of corrupt elites and the rants against the left, the support from social and religious conservatives. At the same time, on economic policy he is much more of a doctrinaire libertarian than a Trump-style mercantilist or populist, a more extreme version of Barry Goldwater and Paul Ryan rather than a defender of entitlement spending and tariffs. Whereas the party that he defeated, the Peronist formation that has governed Argentina for most of the 21st century, is actually more economically nationalist and populist, having ascended in the aftermath of the 2001 financial crisis that ended Argentina’s most notable experiment with neoliberal economics.You can interpret the Trump-Milei divergence in several ways. One reading is that the style of right-wing populism is the essence of the thing, that its policy substance is negotiable so long as it puts forward figures who promise national rebirth and embody some kind of clownish, usually masculine rebellion against the norms of cultural progressivism.Another reading is that, yes, the policy is somewhat negotiable but there are actually deep ideological affinities between right-wing economic nationalism and what might be called paleolibertarianism, despite their disagreement on specific issues. In American terms, this means that Trumpism was anticipated in different ways by Ross Perot and Ron Paul; in global terms, it means that we should expect the parties of the populist right to move back and forth between dirigiste and libertarian tendencies, depending on the economic context and political winds.Here is a third interpretation: While popular discontents have undermined the neoliberal consensus of the 1990s and 2000s all across the developed world, the age of populism is creating very different alignments in the Latin American periphery than in the Euro-American core.In Western Europe and the United States, you now consistently see a center-left party of the professional classes facing off against a populist and working-class coalition on the right. The center-left parties have become more progressive on economic policy relative to the era of Bill Clinton and Tony Blair, but they have moved much more sharply left on cultural issues while retaining their mandarin and meritocratic leadership, their neoliberal flavor. And they have mostly been able to contain, defeat or co-opt more radical left-wing challengers — Joe Biden by overcoming Bernie Sanders in the 2020 Democratic primaries, Keir Starmer by marginalizing Corbynism in Britain’s Labour Party, Emmanuel Macron by forcing French leftists to cast a lesser-of-two-evils ballot in his favor in his runoffs against Marine Le Pen.The populist right, meanwhile, has often found success by moderating its libertarian impulses in order to woo downscale voters away from the progressive coalition, yielding a right-of-center politics that usually favors certain kinds of protectionism and redistribution. That could mean a Trumpian defense of entitlement programs, the halfhearted attempts by Boris Johnson’s Tories to invest in the neglected north of England or the spending on family benefits that you see from Viktor Orban in Hungary and the recently unseated populist coalition in Poland.You can imagine the gulf between these two coalitions keeping the West in a state of simmering near crisis — especially with Trump’s crisis-courting personality in the mix. But you can also imagine a future in which this order stabilizes and normalizes somewhat and people stop talking about an earthquake every time a populist wins power or democracy being saved every time an establishment party wins an election.The situation is quite different in Latin America. There the neoliberal consensus was always weaker, the center more fragile, and so the age of populist rebellion has created a clearer polarization between further left and further right — with the left culturally progressive but usually more avowedly socialist than Biden, Starmer or Macron and the right culturally traditional but usually more libertarian than Trump, Orban or Le Pen.The new alignment in Argentina, with its libertarian revolutionary overcoming a populist-nationalist left, is one example of this pattern; the contest between Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil last year was another. But the recent swings in Chilean politics are especially instructive. In the early 2010s Chile seemed to have a relatively stable political environment, with a center-left party governing through a market-friendly Constitution and a center-right opposition at pains to distance itself from the Pinochet dictatorship. Then popular rebellions cast this order down, creating a wild yaw leftward and an attempt to impose a new left-wing Constitution that yielded backlash in its turn — leaving the country divided between an unpopular left-wing government headed by a former student activist and a temporarily ascendant right-wing opposition led by a Pinochet apologist.In each case, relative to the divides of France and the United States, you see a weaker center and a deeper polarization between competing populist extremes. And if the question for Latin America now is how stable democracy itself will be under such polarized conditions, the question for Europe and America is whether the Argentine or Chilean situation is a harbinger of their own futures. Perhaps not immediately but after a further round of populist rebellions, which could await beyond some crisis or disaster or simply on the far side of demographic change.In such a future, figures like Biden and Starmer and Macron would no longer be able to manage governing coalitions, and the initiative on the left would pass to more radical parties like Podemos in Spain or the Greens in Germany, to Alexandria Ocasio-Cortezan progressives in the U.S. Congress, to whatever kind of politics emerges from the encounter between the European left and the continent’s growing Arab and Muslim populations. This would give the populist right an opportunity to promise stability and claim the center — but it would also create incentives for the right to radicalize further, yielding bigger ideological swings every time an incumbent coalition lost.Which is, in a way, the clearest lesson of Milei’s thumping victory: If you can’t reach stability after one round of populist convulsion, there’s no inherent limit on how wild the next cycle of rebellion might get.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTOpinion) and Instagram. More

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      Dutch Election: Unpredictable Vote May Elevate a Centrist

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      Unusually, a protest vote may be coalescing around a centrist, Pieter Omtzigt, as the Dutch vote in national elections on Wednesday.After 13 years with Mark Rutte as their prime minister, the Dutch will cast their ballots on Wednesday in a national election that is expected to scatter votes across the spectrum. But there is one man who has emerged as the campaign’s chief protagonist.It is Pieter Omtzigt, a longtime parliamentarian and founder of a new party, who says he wants to overhaul the Dutch political system from the political center — appealing to voters increasingly disillusioned with the establishment yet wary of extremes.Mr. Omtzigt, 49, has offered voters a novel mix of left-leaning economic policies and right-leaning migration policies, packaged in a party he created this summer, called New Social Contract.“It’s a protest party in the political middle,” said Tom Louwerse, a political scientist at Leiden University who created a website that combines and summarizes polls.Yet it is one that does not pit the elite against the common man in the way populist parties often do, political analysts said. While anti-establishment votes in many European countries have often gone to right-wing parties, Mr. Omtzigt’s presence seems to have provided an alternative to Dutch voters who don’t feel quite at home in the far right.The Dutch election is shaping up as one of the most significant and competitive in years. It is being held two years ahead of schedule, after Mr. Rutte’s government collapsed in July when the parties in his coalition failed to reach an agreement on migration policy.Mr. Rutte, who is serving as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, was considered a mainstay of Dutch politics. But trust in the leader who was nicknamed “Teflon Mark” has suffered because of several scandals, including a lack of action by his government after earthquakes caused by decades-long gas production in the northern province of Groningen damaged thousands of homes.Mr. Rutte was also a strong voice for fiscal restraint inside the European Union, especially after the British exit, allowing the Netherlands to punch above its weight on E.U. budget matters.Those are big political shoes to fill, and the race remains unpredictable, analysts said, with three or four parties closely jockeying near the top of polls in the homestretch.In recent days, the far-right Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, has inched up at the expense of Mr. Omtzigt’s party. The other contenders include a Green-Labor coalition on the left led by Frans Timmermans, a former European Union climate czar; and Mr. Rutte’s party, the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy.No one party is expected to win an outright majority, making it likely that whoever comes out on top will have to govern in a coalition, which could take weeks or months to hammer out.Mr. Omtzigt has been somewhat coy as to whether he would serve as prime minister, but he has emerged as the campaign’s most popular figure, said Asher van der Schelde, a researcher for I&O Research, an independent Dutch polling organization.“He is considered by Dutch people as a man with integrity who can enact change,” Mr. van der Schelde said. “The campaign really revolves around him.”Even as he runs as a change agent, Mr. Omtzigt is also regarded as a safe pair of hands. A former member of the center-right Christian party, he spent the better part of the past two decades in the House of Representatives in The Hague. The familiarity may be reassuring for a relatively conservative country that is looking for change but also security after Mr. Rutte’s long tenure.Mr. Omtzigt, right, during a debate last Thursday with opponents including Geert Wilders, center, whose far-right Party for Freedom has been gaining in recent polls.Koen Van Weel/EPA, via ShutterstockIn recent years, Mr. Omtzigt has built a reputation for holding those in power accountable. He rose to prominence in 2021 after he played a pivotal role in uncovering a systemic failure by Mr. Rutte’s government to protect thousands of families from overzealous tax inspectors.As a result of that scandal, Mr. Rutte’s government resigned in 2021, only to be easily re-elected. The scandal added to a growing distrust of the Dutch government, experts say.“There’s a lack of checks and balances in the Dutch political system,” Mr. Omtzigt said in a phone interview. Among the changes he is proposing is the creation of a constitutional court that would perform a role similar to the Supreme Court in the United States, adjudicating whether laws jibe the Constitution.“His style, compared to hard-core populists, is a bit more intellectual,” said Gerrit Voerman, a professor at the University of Groningen who is an expert in the Dutch and European party system.“You could say that the sentiment of distrust in the government has reached the political center,” Professor Voerman said. “Criticism of the government isn’t specifically left wing or right wing.”But even as he has promised “a new way of doing politics,” Mr. Omtzigt is himself very much part of the establishment. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, and he earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Exeter in England.The way the government is run doesn’t work for many people, Mr. Omtzigt said. He also said that many politicians were out of touch with what citizens were worried about.Migration is one of the major issues in this election. Dutch citizens across the political spectrum are in favor of curtailing migration to some degree, pollsters say, including in some cases the number of labor migrants and foreign students.But immigration is not the first issue on Dutch voters’ minds — it’s the country’s housing crisis, which Mr. Omtzigt has linked to an influx of migrants who are competing with Dutch citizens for living spaces.Demonstrators calling for affordable housing during a march in Amsterdam last February.Robin Utrecht/EPA, via Shutterstock“Everyone’s talking about the rights of migrants,” Mr. Omtzigt told a Dutch political podcast this month. “Nobody is talking about the rights to a secure livelihood for those 390,000 households that don’t have a home in the Netherlands.”New Social Contract says it wants a “conscious, active and selective migration policy,” and proposes a maximum migration balance of 50,000 people per year. (In 2022, that number — the difference between people emigrating and immigrating — was roughly 224,000, according to Statistics Netherlands.)“It seems that some politicians are out of sync with citizens’ concerns,” Mr. Omtzigt said.The lack of clarity about whether Mr. Omtzigt wants to become prime minister or serve as his party’s leader in the House of Representatives has hurt his popularity over the final days of the campaign, pollsters say. But on Sunday, he told Dutch television that he would be open to leading the country under certain circumstances.Mr. Rutte’s successor as the lead candidate of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, has criticized Mr. Omtzigt for his lack of decisiveness.“Leadership is making decisions,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter, in a thinly veiled criticism of Mr. Omtzigt. “If you don’t want to be prime minister, fine, but just say so.” More

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      Protest Vote May Elevate a Centrist in Dutch Election

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      Unusually, a protest vote may be coalescing around a centrist, Pieter Omtzigt, as the Dutch vote in national elections on Wednesday.After 13 years with Mark Rutte as their prime minister, the Dutch will cast their ballots on Wednesday in a national election that is expected to scatter votes across the spectrum. But there is one man who has emerged as the campaign’s chief protagonist.It is Pieter Omtzigt, a longtime parliamentarian and founder of a new party, who says he wants to overhaul the Dutch political system from the political center — appealing to voters increasingly disillusioned with the establishment yet wary of extremes.Mr. Omtzigt, 49, has offered voters a novel mix of left-leaning economic policies and right-leaning migration policies, packaged in a party he created this summer, called New Social Contract.“It’s a protest party in the political middle,” said Tom Louwerse, a political scientist at Leiden University who created a website that combines and summarizes polls.Yet it is one that does not pit the elite against the common man in the way populist parties often do, political analysts said. While anti-establishment votes in many European countries have often gone to right-wing parties, Mr. Omtzigt’s presence seems to have provided an alternative to Dutch voters who don’t feel quite at home in the far right.The Dutch election is shaping up as one of the most significant and competitive in years. It is being held two years ahead of schedule, after Mr. Rutte’s government collapsed in July when the parties in his coalition failed to reach an agreement on migration policy.Mr. Rutte, who is serving as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed, was considered a mainstay of Dutch politics. But trust in the leader who was nicknamed “Teflon Mark” has suffered because of several scandals, including a lack of action by his government after earthquakes caused by decades-long gas production in the northern province of Groningen damaged thousands of homes.Mr. Rutte was also a strong voice for fiscal restraint inside the European Union, especially after the British exit, allowing the Netherlands to punch above its weight on E.U. budget matters.Those are big political shoes to fill, and the race remains unpredictable, analysts said, with three or four parties closely jockeying near the top of polls in the homestretch.In recent days, the far-right Party for Freedom, led by Geert Wilders, has inched up at the expense of Mr. Omtzigt’s party. The other contenders include a Green-Labor coalition on the left led by Frans Timmermans, a former European Union climate czar; and Mr. Rutte’s party, the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy.No one party is expected to win an outright majority, making it likely that whoever comes out on top will have to govern in a coalition, which could take weeks or months to hammer out.Mr. Omtzigt has been somewhat coy as to whether he would serve as prime minister, but he has emerged as the campaign’s most popular figure, said Asher van der Schelde, a researcher for I&O Research, an independent Dutch polling organization.“He is considered by Dutch people as a man with integrity who can enact change,” Mr. van der Schelde said. “The campaign really revolves around him.”Even as he runs as a change agent, Mr. Omtzigt is also regarded as a safe pair of hands. A former member of the center-right Christian party, he spent the better part of the past two decades in the House of Representatives in The Hague. The familiarity may be reassuring for a relatively conservative country that is looking for change but also security after Mr. Rutte’s long tenure.Mr. Omtzigt, right, during a debate last Thursday with opponents including Geert Wilders, center, whose far-right Party for Freedom has been gaining in recent polls.Koen Van Weel/EPA, via ShutterstockIn recent years, Mr. Omtzigt has built a reputation for holding those in power accountable. He rose to prominence in 2021 after he played a pivotal role in uncovering a systemic failure by Mr. Rutte’s government to protect thousands of families from overzealous tax inspectors.As a result of that scandal, Mr. Rutte’s government resigned in 2021, only to be easily re-elected. The scandal added to a growing distrust of the Dutch government, experts say.“There’s a lack of checks and balances in the Dutch political system,” Mr. Omtzigt said in a phone interview. Among the changes he is proposing is the creation of a constitutional court that would perform a role similar to the Supreme Court in the United States, adjudicating whether laws jibe the Constitution.“His style, compared to hard-core populists, is a bit more intellectual,” said Gerrit Voerman, a professor at the University of Groningen who is an expert in the Dutch and European party system.“You could say that the sentiment of distrust in the government has reached the political center,” Professor Voerman said. “Criticism of the government isn’t specifically left wing or right wing.”But even as he has promised “a new way of doing politics,” Mr. Omtzigt is himself very much part of the establishment. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from the European University Institute in Florence, Italy, and he earned a bachelor’s degree from the University of Exeter in England.The way the government is run doesn’t work for many people, Mr. Omtzigt said. He also said that many politicians were out of touch with what citizens were worried about.Migration is one of the major issues in this election. Dutch citizens across the political spectrum are in favor of curtailing migration to some degree, pollsters say, including in some cases the number of labor migrants and foreign students.But immigration is not the first issue on Dutch voters’ minds — it’s the country’s housing crisis, which Mr. Omtzigt has linked to an influx of migrants who are competing with Dutch citizens for living spaces.Demonstrators calling for affordable housing during a march in Amsterdam last February.Robin Utrecht/EPA, via Shutterstock“Everyone’s talking about the rights of migrants,” Mr. Omtzigt told a Dutch political podcast this month. “Nobody is talking about the rights to a secure livelihood for those 390,000 households that don’t have a home in the Netherlands.”New Social Contract says it wants a “conscious, active and selective migration policy,” and proposes a maximum migration balance of 50,000 people per year. (In 2022, that number — the difference between people emigrating and immigrating — was roughly 224,000, according to Statistics Netherlands.)“It seems that some politicians are out of sync with citizens’ concerns,” Mr. Omtzigt said.The lack of clarity about whether Mr. Omtzigt wants to become prime minister or serve as his party’s leader in the House of Representatives has hurt his popularity over the final days of the campaign, pollsters say. But on Sunday, he told Dutch television that he would be open to leading the country under certain circumstances.Mr. Rutte’s successor as the lead candidate of the People’s Party for Freedom and Democracy, Dilan Yesilgoz-Zegerius, has criticized Mr. Omtzigt for his lack of decisiveness.“Leadership is making decisions,” she wrote on X, formerly Twitter, in a thinly veiled criticism of Mr. Omtzigt. “If you don’t want to be prime minister, fine, but just say so.” More

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      Los planes de Trump para 2025

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      Además: Argentina eligió presidente, Acapulco a un mes del huracán Otis y más para estar al día.Donald Trump quiere regresar a la Casa Blanca en enero de 2025.A un año de las elecciones, aún es pronto para saber si la tendencia va a mantenerse, pero un sondeo reciente indica que el expresidente lidera las preferencias en la mayoría de los estados indecisos. Parece que las acusaciones formales en su contra por 91 delitos penales no le han restado apoyo.(Tanto Trump como el presidente Joe Biden son impopulares, según la encuesta Times/Siena. Pero los votantes que están frustrados con la situación actual de EE. UU. no expresan simpatía por Biden).¿Qué planea Trump para un segundo mandato?El expresidente Donald Trump en un discurso el domingo en Edinburg, TexasMichael Gonzalez/Getty ImagesA partir de sus discursos de campaña, así como de las publicaciones de sus páginas de internet, los reporteros de política del Times ofrecen un resumen de sus principales proyectos. A continuación, presentamos una lista de algunas de las medidas que pretende implementar en caso de ganar las elecciones:Modificar al poder ejecutivo para concentrar más poder. Esto involucraría que algunos organismos independientes, como la Comisión Federal de Comunicaciones y la Comisión Federal de Comercio, estén bajo el control presidencial. También ha indicado que planea transformar la burocracia federal.Atacar a los cárteles mexicanos de la droga con el uso de la fuerza militar.Modificar el poder judicial para actuar contra sus oponentes políticos. Según ha afirmado, eso implicaría nombrar un fiscal especial para “ir tras” Biden y su familia.En su primer mandato, las ambiciones de Trump se toparon con asesores jurídicos que impidieron algunas de sus propuestas. Ahora planea nombrar abogados que allanen el camino para llevar a cabo una agenda más radical.Al igual que en su primera campaña, Trump sigue empleando una retórica extrema contra los inmigrantes. Promete realizar “la mayor operación de deportación nacional en la historia de Estados Unidos”. Además, sus planes en materia migratoria incluyen redadas, campamentos y la reactivación del Título 42.Mientras tanto, los asesores de Biden desestiman la tendencia y aseguran que el actual mandatario está en una buena posición para competir en las elecciones.Si alguien te reenvió este correo, puedes hacer clic aquí para recibirlo tres veces por semana.Algo para el Día de Acción de GraciasLo digo todos los años: la fiesta de Acción de Gracias o Thanksgiving es una de mis festividades favoritas del calendario.Es una ocasión secular que reúne a familias o amigos para celebrar la gratitud y compartir una comida. Brinda una buena oportunidad para reflexionar sobre las bondades del año y ser agradecidos, algo que tiene impactos positivos en la salud. Y, de paso, cocinar puede resultar terapéutico.Si estás buscando ideas para el menú de estos días, aquí hay una receta de empanadas de calabaza que me recuerda a Reynosa, el lugar donde crecí. Te invito a participar en los comentarios con tus propias tradiciones de Acción de Gracias.Muchas familias mexicoestadounidenses cocinan a fuego lento calabaza fresca en piloncillo y otras especias; esta receta es más conveniente porque usa calabaza en lata.Bobbi Lin para The New York Times. Estilismo de comida: Maggie Ruggiero.Hoy quiero darte las gracias por ser parte de esta comunidad de lectores. Hace cuatro años que escribo este boletín y me siento muy afortunada de gozar del privilegio de contar con tu atención y poder acompañar tu semana.— More

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      Rishi Sunak’s Dilemma: When to Hold an Election He Looks Poised to Lose

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      Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is 20 percentage points behind in opinion polls. But history suggests the timing of a vote might make a difference.No question in British politics will be more regularly asked, and reliably brushed aside, over the next few months than when Prime Minister Rishi Sunak plans to call the country’s next general election.He must do so by January 2025. The conventional wisdom is that with his Conservative Party trailing the opposition Labour Party by 20 percentage points in the polls, Mr. Sunak will wait as long as he can. Given the fact that Britons do not like electioneering around Christmas or in the dead of winter, that would suggest a vote next fall.But some of Mr. Sunak’s colleagues last week pushed for an earlier timetable. Having lost a critical legal ruling on his flagship immigration policy, the prime minister came under pressure from the right of his party to go to the polls in the spring if the House of Lords blocks the government’s efforts to revamp legislation to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.Turning the election into a referendum on immigration might deflect attention from the economic woes plaguing Britain. But that assumes voters could be persuaded to swing to the Conservatives out of a fear of asylum seekers crossing the English Channel in small boats, rather than blaming the party for a stagnant economy, a cost-of-living crisis and hollowed out public services.Britain’s Supreme Court last week struck down the policy of deporting asylum seekers to Rwanda as unlawful. But Mr. Sunak has vowed to keep the matter alive by negotiating a new treaty with the East African country that would include a legally binding commitment not to remove migrants sent there by Britain — one of the court’s objections.Mr. Sunak also pledged emergency legislation that would declare Rwanda a safe country for asylum seekers. It remains unclear whether that would survive legal challenges and in the House of Lords, the unelected upper chamber of Parliament that has the right to review the legislation and could block it (though its appetite for a full-scale clash with the government was not clear.)“I know the British people will want this new law to pass so we can get flights off to Rwanda,” Mr. Sunak told reporters last week. “Whether it’s the House of Lords or the Labour Party standing in our way, I will take them on because I want to get this thing done and I want to stop the boats.”Asylum seekers disembark from a lifeboat in Dungeness, England, after being picked up at sea while crossing the English Channel.Henry Nicholls/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPolitical analysts say immigration remains a resonant issue in England’s north and Midlands, where support for the Conservatives in 2019 gave the party a landslide general election victory. Those voters, many of whom traditionally supported the Labour Party, were drawn to the Tory slogan, “Get Brexit done.”“Immigration is now the top priority for 2019 Conservative Party voters, above even the cost-of-living crisis and the dire state of the country’s National Health Service,” said Matthew Goodwin, a professor of politics at the University of Kent, who has written about populism and identity politics.“This means, in short, that Rishi Sunak has no way of winning the next election unless he connects with these voters by reducing immigration and regaining control of the country’s borders,” he said. “Yet both of those things currently look unlikely.”Far from accelerating the date of an election, Professor Goodwin argued that the salience of immigration would pressure Mr. Sunak to delay a vote. It will take months to surmount the legal problems with the existing policy, the professor said, let alone begin one-way flights to Rwanda.Other experts are more skeptical that an immigration-dominated election would play to the advantage of the Tories. Most voters view the party negatively on immigration, said Sophie Stowers, a researcher at the U.K. in a Changing Europe, a think tank in London. The number of people crossing the channel has remained stubbornly high since Mr. Sunak became prime minister, while legal migration has soared.“To me, it seems counterintuitive to bring attention to an issue where you have a poor image with the public,” Ms. Stowers said.The question is whether the Conservatives would do even worse if the election were decided on the economy, which matters more than migration to voters at large, according to opinion polls. Mr. Sunak did achieve one of his key economic goals last week, halving the rate of inflation. But he has yet to achieve the other two: reviving growth and reducing public debt.Clothing for sale in London last month. Mr. Sunak did achieve one of his key economic goals last week, halving the rate of inflation.Hannah Mckay/ReutersIt’s not yet clear that the economic news will improve between the spring and fall, analysts said. While inflation has cooled, the lingering effect of higher interest rates — propelled upward by Liz Truss’s market-shaking tax policies last year — is still cascading through the economy in the form of higher home mortgage rates.Historically, many successful prime ministers, including Margaret Thatcher and Tony Blair, called elections earlier than they needed, rather than risk becoming the victim of unforeseen events. They usually opted for the summer months, when the weather — and the public mood — is typically better, although Boris Johnson successfully broke that pattern with his victory in December 2019.Mr. Sunak’s room for maneuver is limited. One option would be holding the vote in May 2024 to coincide with local elections, or in June. Another possibility would be October or November, which would coincide with elections in the United States. But the possibility of a victory by Donald J. Trump could have an unpredictable effect, potentially pushing some British voters to a more centrist option. As a last resort, Mr. Sunak could hold off until Jan. 28, 2025.Some of Mr. Sunak’s predecessors paid a high price for miscalculating the timing of elections. Despite speculation that he would call an election in 1978, the Labour Party prime minister James Callaghan delayed voting until the following year. Labor unrest escalated into what became known as the “winter of discontent,” sweeping Mrs. Thatcher to victory in 1979.Margaret Thatcher, campaigning in 1979, won election as prime minister after the Labour Party incumbent, James Callaghan, decided not to call an election the previous year.Press Association, via Associated PressGordon Brown, another Labour prime minister, had been expected to capitalize on his early popularity by calling an election soon after taking over from Tony Blair in 2007. Instead, he delayed, ultimately losing power in 2010.Theresa May made the opposite decision, calling an early election in 2017 in which she lost her majority, though probably more because of her unpopular agenda and poor campaign skills than bad timing.“Once the election is underway, everything is on the table,” said Peter Kellner, a polling expert. “You lose control of the agenda.”Trying to build an election campaign around the issue of small boats bringing migrants is likely to fail, Mr. Kellner added, suggesting Mr. Sunak will only call an early vote if he calculates he has a realistic prospect of keeping his job.“If, at the point when you have to make a decision, you have no chance of winning, then you might as well wait,” he said, “because maybe there is a five percent chance of winning in six months, and a five percent chance is better than no chance.” More

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      Argentina se prepara para un presidente ‘anarcocapitalista’

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      Javier Milei ha dicho que la sociedad es mejor sin Estado. Ahora está a punto de dirigir el de Argentina.Javier Milei se dio a conocer al público argentino como un personaje combativo de la televisión, con un peinado rebelde y una proclividad a insultar a sus críticos. Por eso, cuando el año pasado anunció su candidatura a las elecciones presidenciales de Argentina, muchos lo consideraron un actor secundario.El domingo fue electo como el próximo presidente de Argentina, y ahora tiene la misión de sacar a una de las mayores economías de América Latina de una de sus peores crisis.Muchos argentinos se despertaron el lunes ansiosos, otros esperanzados, pero prácticamente todos tenían dudas sobre lo que les espera.Quizá la única certeza sobre el futuro político y económico del país era que, en tres semanas, un outsider político de extrema derecha con escasa experiencia en la función pública tomará las riendas de un gobierno que se ha comprometido a trastocar.En otras palabras, es el momento Donald Trump de Argentina.Milei, economista libertario y diputado novato, dejó claro en su discurso de victoria del domingo que actuaría con rapidez para modificar el gobierno y la economía. “La situación de la Argentina es crítica”, dijo. “Los cambios que necesita nuestro país son drásticos. No hay lugar para el gradualismo”.Los mercados aplaudieron su elección, y las acciones y bonos argentinos subieron en las bolsas estadounidenses (el mercado argentino estaba cerrado por un feriado). Incluso sin tener claro lo que puede lograr, los mercados parecen considerarlo una mejor apuesta económica que sus predecesores, en su mayoría de izquierda.Las políticas económicas fracasadas —incluidos el gasto excesivo, las medidas comerciales proteccionistas, la asfixiante deuda internacional y la impresión de más pesos para pagarla— han llevado al país de 46 millones de habitantes a una caída económica en picada.La inflación anual ha superado el 140 por ciento, la tercera tasa más alta del mundo, dejando a muchos argentinos dispuestos a gastar o convertir sus pesos a dólares estadounidenses o criptomonedas tan rápido como les sea posible, mientras que el creciente número de pobres del país hace fila en los bancos de alimentos y comedores de beneficencia.Personas recogiendo productos descartados frente al mercado central de Buenos Aires. La inflación anual ha superado el 140 por ciento; es la tercera tasa más alta del mundo.Tomas Cuesta/Getty ImagesPara solucionarlo, Milei ha propuesto convertir la 22ª economía del mundo en un laboratorio de ideas económicas radicales que en gran medida no se han probado en ningún otro lugar.Milei, de 53 años, ha dicho que quiere recortar el gasto y los impuestos, privatizar empresas estatales, eliminar 10 de los 18 ministerios federales, pasar las escuelas públicas a un sistema de vouchers, hacer que el sistema público de asistencia a la salud esté basado en seguros, cerrar el banco central y sustituir el peso argentino por el dólar estadounidense.Se identifica como “anarcocapitalista”, que, según ha dicho, es una corriente libertaria radicalmente librecambista que cree que “la sociedad funciona mucho mejor sin Estado que con Estado”.Ahora es el jefe del Estado.“Este es un escenario completamente nuevo en el que nunca hemos estado”, dijo María O’Donnell, periodista política y locutora de radio argentina. “Milei tiene estas ideas tan extravagantes que nunca hemos visto aplicadas en ningún lugar del mundo”.Ha habido poco consenso entre los economistas sobre el mejor camino a seguir para Argentina, pero pocos habían sugerido el enfoque de Milei antes de que llegara a la escena; y pocos saben qué esperar ahora que estará a cargo.El lunes por la mañana, Milei empezó a tambalear en algunas de sus promesas electorales. En una entrevista radiofónica, afirmó que la legislación argentina le impediría privatizar la salud y la educación. En otra, cuando se le preguntó por su plan para utilizar el dólar estadounidense, respondió que “la moneda que se elija es la moneda que elijan los argentinos”.¿Qué significa eso? “No estoy seguro de que lo sepa”, dijo Eduardo Levy Yeyati, economista y profesor argentino.Levy Yeyati lo interpretó como una señal de que Milei se propondría en primer lugar eliminar la mayoría de las restricciones al comercio de divisas, que el gobierno argentino ha impuesto como parte de su esfuerzo por apuntalar el valor del peso argentino. Otros comentarios de Milei el lunes parecieron apoyar esa idea.El Banco Central de Argentina en Buenos Aires. Milei ha dicho que le gustaría sustituir el peso argentino por el dólar estadounidense.Agustin Marcarian/Reuters“Argentina ha sido históricamente un laboratorio de ideas extrañas”, dijo Levy Yeyati, pero muchas de ellas nunca se llevan a la práctica debido a la realidad económica y política.Dijo que cree que ocurrirá lo mismo con Milei, al menos al principio. “Habrá un chequeo de realidad”, dijo. “Se seguirá hablando de la mayoría de estas propuestas, pero será difícil ejecutarlas en el primer año”.Se espera que Milei tenga que llegar a acuerdos políticos para llevar a cabo sus planes, ya que su partido, con dos años de existencia, apenas controla el 10 por ciento de los escaños del Senado y el 15 por ciento de los de la Cámara de Diputados.Lo más probable es que para gestionar muchos de esos acuerdos se valga de Mauricio Macri, expresidente de Argentina, un conservador que ha mantenido un amplio control sobre un gran partido político. Ambos se reunieron el domingo por la noche.Fernando Iglesias, diputado de ese bloque conservador, dijo que él y sus colegas estaban deseosos de ayudar a Milei a arreglar el país. “Es cierto que tiene el hándicap de la inexperiencia”, añadió, “pero tengo la esperanza de que pueda armar un equipo razonable de gobierno y hacer los cambios que necesita el país”.Aunque muchas de las personas clave de la campaña de Milei carecen también de experiencia de gobierno, ellas lo han presentado como una ventaja, no como un inconveniente, y los votantes han estado de acuerdo.Una persona que casi con toda seguridad tendrá influencia en el nuevo gobierno es la hermana de Milei, Karina Milei, que dirigió su campaña y a quien él ha descrito como su asesora más importante.En una entrevista televisiva de 2021, llegó a compararla con Moisés, la figura bíblica portadora del mensaje de Dios. “Kari es Moisés”, dijo con lágrimas en los ojos. “Yo soy el divulgador, nada más”.Karina Milei ha sido un enigma en Argentina, siempre presente al lado de Milei pero sin hablar casi nunca en público. No se sabe mucho de su pasado, más allá de informes no confirmados en los medios de comunicación argentinos de que estudió relaciones públicas en la universidad, dirigió un negocio de cupcakes y fue copropietaria de una tienda de neumáticos. La campaña de Milei dijo que ella ayudaría en la transición.La hermana de Javier Milei, Karina, saliendo de un hotel de Buenos Aires el lunes. Ella dirigió la campaña de su hermano y se espera que también lo haga con la transición.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMilei anunció el lunes que su ministro de Justicia sería Mariano Cúneo Libarona, un abogado convertido en comentarista de televisión que saltó a la fama por defender a famosos, incluido el representante de la estrella del fútbol Diego Maradona en un caso de drogas en 1996.Su nueva ministra de Relaciones Exteriores, Diana Mondino, economista, declaró a la prensa que uno de los principales objetivos del gobierno en política exterior sería poner fin a la mayoría de las regulaciones sobre importaciones y exportaciones. También dijo que Argentina probablemente no entraría en el club BRICS de naciones emergentes, como se había anunciado en agosto.“No entendemos, con la información pública de la cual se dispone ahora, cuál sería la ventaja para Argentina”, dijo a los periodistas en el mitin de la victoria de Milei el domingo. “Si ustedes me pueden explicar a mí qué son las BRICS, aprovecho y aprendo”.La compañera de fórmula de Milei, Victoria Villarruel, ha pasado gran parte de su carrera dirigiendo una organización que reconoce a las víctimas de atentados perpetrados por guerrillas izquierdistas, que los militares argentinos utilizaron como justificación de su sangrienta dictadura de 1976 a 1983.Villarruel, que procede de una familia de militares argentinos, lleva mucho tiempo asegurando que se han exagerado las atrocidades de la dictadura, al afirmar que desaparecieron 8500 personas, a pesar de que los archivos desclasificados muestran que incluso los militares admitieron, a solo dos años de su gobierno, que la cifra era de 22.000.Villarruel y Milei fueron elegidos juntos para la Cámara de Diputados de Argentina en 2021, los dos primeros escaños que consiguió su partido, La Libertad Avanza.Milei ha pasado poco tiempo en el Congreso desde entonces, y propuso su primer proyecto de ley apenas a principios de este mes, al pedir al gobierno que haga más para traer a casa a los aproximadamente 25 argentinos retenidos como rehenes por Hamás.Simpatizantes de Milei celebrando en Buenos Aires el domingo por la noche. Los argentinos estaban aturdidos el lunes al pensar sobre lo que Milei podría traer, tanto lo positivo como lo negativo.Adriano Machado/ReutersEn todo el país, los argentinos estaban aturdidos el lunes al pensar sobre lo que Milei podría traer, tanto bueno como malo.Micaela Sánchez, de 31 años, actriz y profesora de teatro, dijo que ella y muchos amigos estaban preocupados por las promesas de Milei de modificar el gobierno, su historial de ataques a adversarios políticos y sus comentarios restando importancia a las atrocidades de la dictadura.“Es realmente un panorama desolador y aterrador para todas las personas que trabajamos en la cultura, que trabajamos con gente, para quienes educamos, para quienes están en salud”, comentó. “Lo único que puedo decir es que estoy muy asustada y muy triste”.Pero Yhoel Saldania, de 27 años, propietario de una tienda, dijo que mantener a Argentina como está habría sido mucho más arriesgado que apostar por Milei. “Los otros gobiernos prometen y prometen, y nada cambia”, dijo. “Queremos un cambio de verdad”.Jack Nicas es el jefe de la corresponsalía en Brasil, que abarca Brasil, Argentina, Chile, Paraguay y Uruguay. Anteriormente reportó de tecnología desde San Francisco y, antes de integrarse al Times en 2018, trabajó siete años en The Wall Street Journal. Más de Jack Nicas More

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      Javier Milei’s Presidential Win Is Argentina’s Donald Trump Moment

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      Javier Milei has said that society is better without government. Now he is about to run Argentina’s.Javier Milei was first introduced to the Argentine public as a combative television personality with an unruly hairdo and a tendency to insult his critics. So when he entered Argentina’s presidential race last year, he was viewed by many as a sideshow.On Sunday, he was elected Argentina’s next president, and is now tasked with guiding one of Latin America’s largest economies out of one of its worst economic crises.Many Argentines awoke on Monday anxious, others hopeful, but just about everyone was uncertain about what lay ahead.Perhaps the only certainty about the country’s political and economic future was that, in three weeks, a far-right political outsider with little governing experience was set to take the reins of a government that he has vowed to upend.In other words, it is Argentina’s Donald Trump moment.Mr. Milei, a libertarian economist and freshman congressman, made clear in his victory speech on Sunday that he would move fast to overhaul the government and economy. “Argentina’s situation is critical,” he said. “The changes that our country needs are drastic. There is no place for gradualism.”Markets cheered his election, with Argentine stocks and bonds rising on U.S. exchanges (the Argentine market was closed for a holiday). Even without clarity on what he can accomplish, markets appear to view him as a better economic bet than his mostly leftist predecessors.Failed economic policies — including overspending, protectionist trade measures, suffocating international debt and the printing of more pesos to pay for it — have sent the nation of 46 million people into an economic tailspin.Annual inflation has surpassed 140 percent, the world’s third highest rate, leaving many residents rushing to spend or convert their pesos to U.S. dollars or cryptocurrencies as quickly as they can, while the country’s growing number of poor increasingly line up at food banks and soup kitchens.People collecting discarded produce outside the central market in Buenos Aires. Annual inflation has surpassed 140 percent, the world’s third highest rate.Tomas Cuesta/Getty ImagesTo fix it, Mr. Milei has proposed turning the world’s 22nd largest economy into a laboratory for radical economic ideas that have largely been untested elsewhere. Mr. Milei, 53, has said he wants to slash spending and taxes, privatize state companies, eliminate 10 of the 18 federal ministries, move public schools to a voucher system, make the public health care system insurance-based, close the nation’s central bank and replace the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.He identifies as an “anarcho-capitalist,” which, he has said, is a radically free-market strain of libertarianism that believes “society functions much better without a state than with a state.”Now he is the head of the state.“This is a completely new scenario we’ve never been in,” said María O’Donnell, an Argentine political journalist and radio host. “Milei has these very extravagant ideas we’ve never seen implemented anywhere in the world.”There has been little consensus among economists over the best path ahead for Argentina, but few had suggested Mr. Milei’s approach before he arrived on the scene — and few know what to expect now that he is in charge.On Monday morning, Mr. Milei already began to wobble on some of his campaign pledges. In one radio interview, he said Argentine law would restrict him from privatizing health care and education. In another, when asked about his plan to use the U.S. dollar, he responded that “the currency we adopt will be the currency that Argentines choose.”What does that mean? “I’m not sure he knows,” said Eduardo Levy Yeyati, an Argentine economist and professor.Mr. Levy Yeyati interpreted it as a sign that Mr. Milei would first aim to eliminate most restrictions on trading foreign currencies, which the Argentine government has restricted as part of its effort to prop up the value of the Argentine peso. Mr. Milei’s other comments on Monday appeared to support that idea.The Central Bank of Argentina in Buenos Aires. Mr. Milei has said he would like to replace the Argentine peso with the U.S. dollar.Agustin Marcarian/Reuters“Argentina has historically been a laboratory for weird ideas,” Mr. Levy Yeyati said, but many are never implemented because of economic and political realities.He said that he believes the same will happen with Mr. Milei, at least at first. “There will be a reality check,” he said. “Most of these proposals will still be talked about, but it will be hard to implement them in the first year.”Mr. Milei is expected to have to make political deals to carry out his plans, as his two-year-old political party controls just 10 percent of the seats in Argentina’s Senate and 15 percent in its lower house of Congress.He will most likely broker many of those deals with Mauricio Macri, Argentina’s former president, a conservative who has retained broad control over a large political party. The two met on Sunday night.Fernando Iglesias, a congressman from that conservative bloc, said that he and his colleagues were eager to help Mr. Milei fix the nation. “It’s true that he has the handicap of inexperience,” he added, “but I’m hopeful that he can put together a reasonable governing team to make the changes the country needs.”While many key people in Mr. Milei’s campaign also lack much governing experience, they have pitched that as an asset, not a liability, and many voters agreed.One person who will almost certainly have influence in the new government is Mr. Milei’s sister, Karina Milei, who ran his campaign and whom he has described as his most important adviser.In a 2021 television interview, he even compared her to Moses, the biblical figure bearing the message of God. “Kari is Moses,” he said with tears in his eyes. “I’m the one spreading the word.”Ms. Milei has been an enigma in Argentina, always present at Mr. Milei’s side but almost never speaking publicly. Not much is known about her past, beyond unconfirmed reports in the Argentine news media that she studied public relations in college, ran a cupcake business and co-owned a tire shop. Mr. Milei’s campaign said she would help run the transition.Mr. Milei’s sister, Karina Milei, leaving a hotel in Buenos Aires on Monday. Ms. Milei ran her brother’s campaign and is expected to run the transition.Luis Robayo/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Milei announced Monday that his justice minister would be Mariano Cúneo Libarona, a lawyer turned television pundit who rose to prominence defending celebrities, including in a 1996 drug case when he represented the soccer star Diego Maradona’s manager.His new foreign minister, Diana Mondino, an economist, told reporters that one of the government’s main foreign policy goals was to end most regulations on imports and exports. She also said that Argentina would likely not enter the BRICS club of emerging nations, as had been announced in August.“We don’t understand, with the public information available now, what the advantage would be for Argentina,” she told reporters at Mr. Milei’s victory rally on Sunday. “If you all can explain to me what the BRICS are, I’ll take advantage and learn.”Mr. Milei’s running mate, Victoria Villarruel, has spent much of her career running an organization that recognizes victims of attacks carried out by leftist guerrillas, which Argentina’s military used as justification for its bloody dictatorship from 1976 to 1983.Ms. Villarruel, who comes from an Argentine military family, has long claimed that the atrocities of the dictatorship have been overstated, claiming that 8,500 people disappeared despite declassified records showing that even the military admitted, just two years into its rule, that the number was 22,000.Ms. Villarruel and Mr. Milei were elected to Argentina’s lower house of Congress together in 2021, the first two seats for their Liberty Advances party.Mr. Milei has spent little time in Congress since, proposing his first bill just earlier this month, calling on the government to do more to bring home the roughly 25 Argentines held hostage by Hamas.Supporters of Mr. Milei celebrating in Buenos Aires on Sunday night. Argentines were reeling on Monday with what Mr. Milei could bring, both good and bad.Adriano Machado/ReutersAcross the country, Argentines were reeling on Monday with what Mr. Milei could bring, both good and bad.Micaela Sánchez, 31, an actress and drama teacher, said she and many friends were worried by Mr. Milei’s pledges to overhaul the government, his history of attacking political adversaries and his comments downplaying the atrocities of the dictatorship.“It’s really a bleak and frightening panorama for all of us who work in culture, who work with people, for those who educate, and for those in health care,” she said. “The only thing I can say is that I’m very scared and very sad.”But Yhoel Saldania, 27, a shop owner, said keeping Argentina as it is would have been far riskier than taking a bet on Mr. Milei. “The other governments promise and promise, and nothing ever changes,” he said. “We want a change that’s real.” More