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      The Earthquake Changed Turkey, but Change Is Complicated

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      ADIYAMAN, Turkey — Adiyaman is a southern province of Turkey that a lot of people miss on a map. Too small, too poor, too pious. Too Kurdish, yet not Kurdish enough. Its neighboring provinces carry the weight of history; Adiyaman is mostly known for its loose tobacco.In the 2014 presidential election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 69 percent of the vote in Adiyaman. In 2018, he won 67 percent there.The earthquakes that struck on Feb. 6 left more than 50,000 people in Turkey and Syria dead. More than 6,000 died in Adiyaman alone, where more than 1,200 buildings collapsed and thousands more were heavily damaged. In those first essential hours, the state was nowhere to be seen. Victims lay under the rubble waiting for rescue teams for days.That failure was supposed to jolt places like Adiyaman out of their long alliance with Mr. Erdogan. Heading into the election on Sunday, the opposition, led by Kemal Kilicdaroglu and the Republican People’s Party, the C.H.P., expected a wave of protest votes.That election was one of the closest of Mr. Erdogan’s career. Neither party managed to claim an outright majority in the first round, and a runoff is planned for May 28. If Mr. Erdogan is confident that he’ll succeed in the second round, it might be because of places like Adiyaman, where he won 66 percent of the vote.For some voters in Ankara and Istanbul, it seemed as if people in the southern provinces blindly voted for a president and a party that abandoned them when their need was dire. The truth is more complicated.I spent a week in Adiyaman following the work of Oy ve Otesi (Vote and Beyond), a group that monitors elections, and talking to survivors of the earthquakes about this election. People in Adiyaman are getting by again, but things are fragile. Many lost their jobs and Turkey’s hyperinflation has hit the region hard. But for now the government is paying attention. Families that were made homeless by the earthquakes are starting to settle into temporary housing. In one camp, container houses sent from Qatar overheat in the sun, but the road is freshly paved. A huge poster of Mr. Erdogan nearby promised free natural gas for a year. Mr. Kilicdaroglu pledged free housing for earthquake victims on another poster, but that one was a three-and-a-half-mile drive away.Zeynep, a mother of four children whose husband was in the army, told me that supplies from the disaster relief ministry and her husband’s recent raise in wages, courtesy of Mr. Erdogan’s government, were what allowed her to feed her family. Zeynep asked me not to use her full name for her husband’s sake. She favored Mr. Kilicdaroglu and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, the H.D.P. Her husband is in the special operation forces, fighting Kurdish insurgents. She wasn’t going to vote in the first round. Maybe, she said, she’d vote in the second.Sevgi, also a housewife, planned to vote but kept changing her mind. She didn’t like Mr. Erdogan, at least not anymore, but she was afraid of what her family would do if they found out she voted for the C.H.P.: the party of Mustafa Kemal Ataturk and secularism; the party that once supported a ban against the head scarf in public institutions. Who knows, her family might say, what the C.H.P. would do next.On the other side of town, near the local university, Ekrem Abaci, a muhtar — a sort of neighborhood representative — ordered people around in his office. Men unloaded water jugs from the trucks that kept arriving. The disaster response ministry was sending daily deliveries of water that the muhtar could distribute among his constituency. He and the men around him all told me the same thing: Our government took care of us. It may have come late, but any country would have been the same in such a disaster. The government is not to blame.“Vote for Papa Tayyip tomorrow,” the muhtar called out to Hakan, a graduate student with a broken arm who had come in to collect some papers. Hakan was quiet for a moment, then he told me I could restart the voice recorder that I’d paused when he came in. He said that he’d voted his whole life for Mr. Erdogan and his party, but he wouldn’t this time. He’d vote against the nepotism that has left so many graduates like him unemployed, and the bureaucratic rot that means he gets fined when he shouldn’t and can’t get access to benefits he’s entitled to. Then he left.It’s not that nothing in Adiyaman and neighboring provinces has changed: Many of the areas hit hardest by the earthquakes, which have historically supported Mr. Erdogan, shifted away from him in the first round. But when the sidewalk still crunches with leftover debris; when neighborhoods are still a mix of empty lots, where buildings once stood, and scattered tents; and when life is still a question of today, not tomorrow, a vote for change can feel like a big gamble.Naomi Cohen (@naomireneecohen) is a freelance journalist in Istanbul.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Remember When Trump and DeSantis Loved Each Other? Neither Do They.

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      Our topic for today is — who’s worse, Donald Trump or Ron DeSantis?Nonononofair! There is no way I’m ever going to vote for either one of them! Why should I care?Hey, knowledge of public affairs is always important.DeSantis made headlines this weekend when he showed up to campaign in Iowa while Trump canceled a rally because of bad weather.“Iowa is the Florida of the Midwest,” the governor of Florida claimed at one point in his burger-flipping, speech-giving trek. Now this was clearly intended as a compliment, but Iowans, do you actually want to be the Florida of the Midwest? The weather is certainly great in January, but there’s plenty of downside. Do your Midwestern neighbors ever mutter, “What our state needs is a heck of a lot more floods and sinkholes …”?DeSantis and his wife/political adviser, Casey, have three small children, who once starred in a gubernatorial election ad in which he demonstrated his devotion to President Donald Trump by showing one of his daughters how to build a toy wall and reading his son “The Art of the Deal.” (“Then Mr. Trump said, ‘You’re fired.’ I love that part.”)You may be seeing a lot more of little Madison, Mason and Mamie DeSantis in the months to come. But no one’s going to be reading from Trump’s collected works.Trump has five children counting Ivanka, who’s sorta cut herself off from the clan. And Tiffany, who everybody, including her father, seemed to have forgotten for a very long stretch. And Eric, whom we mainly hear about during riffs from the late-night comics. And Barron, the youngest at 17, who lives quietly with his mom.Donald Jr. is truly his dad’s kid. He’s off this summer to Australia for a speaking tour blasting “woke identity politics.” Ranting against “woke” is sort of a DeSantis thing, but give Junior a break. He’s spent his entire life trying to please a father who was absent for most of his childhood and who is said to have resisted having his firstborn named after him, in case the kid turned into a “loser.”Now Don Jr. has five children too! And he’s not shy about putting them in the news either. A while back he posted an Instagram photo of the kids publicizing a Trump-branded leash. (“You can get yours at the Trump Store too.”) Before that, Dad once tweeted that he planned to confiscate half of his then-3-year-old daughter’s Halloween candy “to teach her about socialism.”Hard to imagine the Trump and DeSantis families getting together for a cookout. But the gap between the two men grows much wider when you look at personal behavior. Only one of them just lost a $5 million verdict from a jury that found he sexually abused a woman in a department store dressing room.Trump has been trying to insinuate that DeSantis had some shady doings with high school girls in his far, far distant past. And running an ad reminding the world that his probable Republican opponent has a history of eating pudding with his fingers.But what about the issues? Sorta hard to pin down since Trump is given to, um, free-associating on this stuff. But he certainly has been running to DeSantis’s left, accusing the Florida governor of wanting to slash Social Security and Medicare benefits.When he was in Congress, DeSantis did vote for Republican proposals along that line. He’s on the no-changes-no-how bandwagon now. But let’s look at abortion — much easier to pin down. DeSantis, as governor, just signed a bill he supported that will bar abortions in Florida after six weeks. By which time many, many women — particularly the very young, very poor, very traumatized — have no idea they’re pregnant.DeSantis has at least been consistent. A devout Catholic, he’s had the same position for his entire political career. Trump, on the other hand, um, adapts.Trump made a huge impact by appointing three anti-choice judges to the Supreme Court. But now he’s noticed that voters are coming down very strong in favor of abortion rights, and he’s switched right around. He claims “many people within the pro-life movement” found the new Florida law “too harsh.”Our bottom line here, people, is that you have two top candidates for the Republican presidential nomination. DeSantis adheres to a strong, faith-based social conservatism. He’s pro-gun, opposed to diversity and inclusion programs in public colleges. And currently having a big fight with Disney, one of Florida’s top employers, over a comment from a Disney C.E.O. that criticized a DeSantis bill to prohibit classroom discussions of sexual orientation in the early grades.Hard to imagine a Gov. Donald Trump taking the same road.Unless it would somehow win him an election. Trump’s politics are deeply, deeply pragmatic. If an angel appeared promising him another term in the White House if he killed every puppy in America, those doggies would be toast.(That is an imperfect example since The Donald hates dogs anyway, but bear with me.)The bottom line: Would you rather see the Republicans nominate a candidate who had an exemplary family life and an agenda based on longstanding, extremely conservative beliefs? Or a guy with a sleazy personal history who’d probably go anywhere the votes were?Some days it pays to be a Democrat.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Ecuador’s President Dissolves Congress Amid Impeachment Trial

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      President Guillermo Lasso disbanded the National Assembly as the opposition-led body was trying to oust him on embezzlement charges.President Guillermo Lasso of Ecuador disbanded the country’s opposition-led National Assembly on Wednesday, a drastic move as the right-leaning leader faced impeachment proceedings over accusations of embezzlement.The constitutional measure, never before used, allows the president to rule by decree until new elections can be held, marking a moment of extraordinary political turbulence for a country of 18 million already in turmoil.Ecuador has long been a relative haven in the region, but in recent years it has been convulsed by rising violence and a skyrocketing homicide rate as increasingly powerful narco-trafficking groups fight for territory.Opposition lawmakers accused Mr. Lasso of turning a blind eye to irregularities and embezzlement in a contract between a state-run shipping company and an oil tanker company that wasn’t delivering on its promises — allegations first made in news reports. The country’s constitutional court later approved a charge of embezzlement against the president but denied two charges of bribery.The charge was being investigated by congress and is political in nature. It is not a criminal charge.Last week, the National Assembly voted to begin impeachment hearings, but all proceedings were permanently halted once Mr. Lasso dissolved congress.The president has repeatedly denied the charges, pointing out that the contract was signed before he took office.“The prosecutors of this trial have acknowledged that they have nothing,” Mr. Lasso said on Tuesday during the impeachment proceeding. “This inquiry is political.”He added, “This is not about saving a presidency, but about preserving a functioning democracy.”This was the second time the opposition had tried to remove Mr. Lasso from the presidency since he took office in 2021.He has faced growing criticism and petitions for his removal from civil society groups in the face of soaring rates of crime, extortion, kidnappings and robberies. Gangs battle for control of drug routes and have gained greater control over the country’s prisons, leading to several prison riots and massacres over the last three years.For weeks, the president and congress were locked in a game of brinkmanship, with legislators threatening to impeach and remove Mr. Lasso as he threatened to dissolve congress and call new elections — a move known in Ecuador as muerte cruzada, or mutually assured death.The mechanism was written into the Constitution in 2008 as a tool to end deadlocks between the presidency and the legislature. But until now, no president had ever enacted it.With Mr. Lasso’s approval ratings plummeting, in some cases below 20 percent, he will govern by decree until new elections are held. The Constitution gives the national election body seven days to set a date for a presidential and legislative vote. The newly elected president and National Assembly would then govern until the end of the original term, 2025.The disbanding of congress provides temporary stability for the country, said Arianna Tanca, an Ecuadorean political scientist, allowing Mr. Lasso to pass laws without a deadlock and giving political parties the chance for a “reset.”But it also threatens to undercut the country’s democracy. A head of government calling for new elections is common in parliamentary democracies, but has no parallel in other presidential democracies in Latin America, said Mauricio Alarcón Salvador, the director of Transparency International’s chapter in Ecuador.“To see a president shut down the assembly and assume legislative power in a transitory manner is, undoubtedly, a blow to democracy,” he said, “and, above all, to the system of checks and balances that should be in force in any democracy in the world.”Mr. Lasso’s decision comes amid upheaval in the region. In December, Peru’s president attempted to dissolve congress — in this case an illegal move that led to his removal and arrest, and then to widespread protests that left dozens of people dead.In January, supporters of former President Jair Bolsonaro of Brazil stormed government buildings in the capital, arguing that November’s election, in which he was defeated, had been rigged.Will Freeman, a fellow for Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Mr. Lasso’s decision to go around legislators could — possibly — be good for him.“Even though he is very unpopular now, I could see six months of rule by decree actually boosting his popularity if he can do something quickly about the twin crises of crime, and hunger and poverty,” he said. “Although, given his track record, that’s a big if.”Some human rights activists said they worry that Mr. Lasso’s power to govern by decree could open the door for serious rights violations, like using terrorism laws to target Indigenous organizations and other groups that might oppose him.“The executive branch governing by decree could continue to exacerbate and favor the interests of the banks, the oil mining companies and certain privileged sectors, to the detriment of the rights of the majorities,” said Lina María Espinosa, a human rights lawyer.Mr. Lasso’s first act on Wednesday under his new powers was a tax cut for businesses and middle-class Ecuadoreans, a move that was welcomed by María Paz Jervis, the president of the Chambers of Industries and Production, a business group.While the dissolution of the legislature could lead to unrest and hurt the economy, Ms. Jervis said new elections were a positive development for a country that needed economic growth, to fight poverty and to produce more jobs.“After this weariness, after this burden that we have felt with this political class, we believe that it is the moment to inaugurate a new politics in Ecuador,” she said.José María León Cabrera More

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      Your Thursday Briefing: The G7 Begins

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      Also, hot years ahead as global temperatures rise.President Biden leaving for Japan.Kenny Holston/The New York TimesWhat to watch at the G7The annual Group of 7 summit opens today in Hiroshima, Japan, where the leaders of the seven major industrial democracies will discuss how to keep the global economy stable. They will also focus on shoring up diplomatic relations at a time of great global uncertainty.“There will be two major issues on the agenda,” my colleague David Sanger said. “How to bring the Ukraine war to an end and how to deal with China.”But the most pressing potential threat, at least to the global economy, may be turmoil in the U.S. The country is two weeks away from running out of money to pay its bills, and a default would jolt its economy and those of the other G7 countries.To address the debt issue at home, President Biden, who is traveling to Japan to attend the summit, canceled the second part of his planned trip — skipping visits to Papua New Guinea and Australia. Fears of an unreliable and dysfunctional America will be revived in that region, analysts warn, where the U.S. has only recently started to rebuild trust and momentum.Papua New Guinea: It scrambled to mobilize 1,000 security officers and 17 other world leaders agreed to visit for just a few hours with Biden. Now, those plans have been scrapped.A hot day in Manhattan in 2016, which is currently the warmest year on record.Bryan Thomas for The New York TimesHeat is likely to soar in the next 5 yearsGlobal temperatures are likely to reach record highs over the next five years, a new analysis showed. Forecasters at the World Meteorological Organization said that human-caused warming and the climate pattern known as El Niño will almost certainly make 2023 to ’27 the warmest five-year period ever recorded.The higher temperatures could exacerbate the dangers from heat waves, wildfires, drought and other calamities, scientists say. Every fraction of a degree increase brings new risks. El Niño will very likely cause further turmoil by shifting precipitation patterns. The organization said it expected increased summer rainfall over the next five years in places like Northern Europe and the Sahel in sub-Saharan Africa and reduced rainfall in the Amazon and parts of Australia.Context: Many world leaders have insisted on the aspirational goal, set out in the Paris climate agreement, of holding global warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. But nations have delayed making the monumental changes necessary to achieve this goal, and now scientists think that the world will probably exceed that threshold around the early 2030s.Indonesia’s plan to move its capitalJakarta, above, is sinking. So Joko Widodo, Indonesia’s president, is trying to build a new capital city, called Nusantara, from the ground up. It’s supposed to be a green and walkable beacon for other megacities in developing nations trying to confront climate change — and usher in a new national mood.“This is not physically moving the buildings,” Joko told my colleague, Hannah Beech, leading her on a tour through the construction site. “We want a new work ethic, new mind-set, new green economy.”The project is a daring attempt at what climate experts call a “managed retreat,” an engineered withdrawal of communities from vulnerable land. It’s also a test case for other similar megacities, which are struggling to negotiate rapid population growth and climate change.Challenges: Nusantara faces political opposition. It also may be behind schedule: Joko wants to inaugurate it next August, but not a single showcase structure has been completed.Why is Jakarta sinking? In part, deforestation and overcrowding. But also many residents have dug thousands of illegal wells to search for clean water, which has deflated the marshes under the city.THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificChina fined a comedy studio about $2 million for a joke comparing the military to stray dogs.Taiwan’s opposition party nominated a moderate for president, an appeal to voters wary of Beijing.Timed to the G7 summit, some Japanese lawmakers are pushing for an L.G.B.T.Q. rights bill. Japan is the only G7 country that has not legalized same-sex unions.The War in UkraineEuropean countries are pressuring the U.S. to allow Ukraine to procure American-made F-16 fighter jets.Ukraine said its gains around Bakhmut were shifting the momentum.Ukraine and Russia have agreed to extend an agreement that allows Ukraine to ship grain across the Black Sea.Around the WorldPresident Guillermo Lasso, center, faces impeachment proceedings over accusations of embezzlement. Jose Jacome/EPA, via ShutterstockEcuador’s president, who used a constitutional measure that will allow him to rule by decree, disbanded the opposition-led congress.Prince Harry and his wife Meghan said they were chased by paparazzi. Officials characterized the event as less dramatic.State executions worldwide rose to the highest recorded number in five years in 2022, even as more countries moved to outlaw the death penalty.In the U.S., a handful of activists who no longer identify as transgender have become the faces of a Republican campaign to restrict gender transition care for minors.A Morning ReadThe writer Qian Julie Wang reviewed two memoirs that explore the many forms of hunger that come with being Asian in America: Fae Myenne Ng’s “Orphan Bachelors” and Jane Wong’s “Meet Me Tonight in Atlantic City.”The two books were written by second-generation Americans with ancestral roots in southern China. The authors have also known hungers of many kinds, inheriting their ancestors’ “insatiable” appetites — for food and water, but also for connection.ARTS AND IDEASA new theory of human evolutionFor a long time, scientists argued that modern humans arose from one place in Africa during one period in time. But a new analysis, based on the genomes of 290 people, rejects that theory, revealing a surprisingly complex origin story.The new research concludes that modern humans descended from at least two populations that coexisted in Africa for a million years. These groups later merged in several independent events.“There is no single birthplace,” said an expert who was not involved in the study. “It really puts a nail in the coffin of that idea.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookAndrew Purcell for The New York TimesDrizzle honey or dust cinnamon on top of torrijas, a Spanish-style French toast.What to ReadMichael Lewis had a front-row seat to the implosion of FTX. His new book about it, “Going Infinite,” will be published in October.HealthI reported on a new trend in hydration, where the thirsty enthusiastically mix syrups and powders into tap water. But … is any of it even water?Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Loaf around the kitchen (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. The Times is introducing a new audio journalism app, New York Times Audio. It has exclusive shows, including “The Headlines,” a quick take on the day’s biggest news.“The Daily” is on Turkish politics.You can reach our team at briefing@nytimes.com. More

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      He Lost Turkey’s Presidential Election, but Could Swing the Runoff

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      Seen by some as spoiler but by others as a kingmaker, Sinan Ogan, the far-right candidate who came in third in the vote, says he is being courted by the two finalists: the sitting president and his challenger.ANKARA — As Sinan Ogan tells it, he has suddenly become the most sought-after man in Turkey.The hard-right nationalist and third-place finisher in presidential elections last weekend, Mr. Ogan told The New York Times that he has been fielding calls all week, from cabinet members to opposition leaders and even the office of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. They all want the same thing — help wooing his critical swing voters one way or the other in the May 28 runoff between the two front-runners.“Very busy,” Mr. Ogan said at his office in the capital, Ankara, on Tuesday afternoon. “I spent my last three or four days negotiating issues with such high-level people.”Mr. Ogan and other hard-right nationalists made a strong showing in Sunday’s presidential and parliamentary elections, prioritizing national security and the defense of what they consider Turkish identity. In particular, they advocate tough stances on the more than 3.3 million Syrian refugees in Turkey.Since the vote, Mr. Ogan’s has been called everything from a spoiler, who blocked the top presidential contenders from an outright victory, to a kingmaker whose supporters may play a role in deciding the runoff. That has given him a sudden clout, evidenced by the flood of calls he says he has received this week.The strong performance of nationalists in these elections will likely pull Turkish government policy further to the right in the years to come, particularly with regards to the country’s Kurdish minority and Syrian refugees.People walking past a banner of Sinan Ogan, who came in third in presidential elections over the weekend, in Istanbul, Turkey on Thursday.Khalil Hamra/Associated PressIn the vote on May 14, Mr. Erdogan won 49.5 percent while his main challenger, the opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu, took about 44.8 percent. Mr. Ogan won a surprising 5.2 percent.With his comfortable lead in the first round, Mr. Erdogan now looks poised to win the runoff, especially if a good number of Mr. Ogan’s voters throw their support to him. Analysts said they expected more of those voters to choose Mr. Erdogan than his challenger.Mr. Ogan, 55, is a former parliament member and expert on the Caucasus who speaks Russian and earned a doctorate in politics and international relations from a Moscow university.He said he expects to announce his endorsement around Thursday, and assumes that 70 percent of his supporters would follow his recommendation. But political analysts are less sure, noting that Mr. Ogan lacks a powerful party apparatus to corral voters. And many of his supporters may have chosen him to protest the top contenders, and could skip the runoff.Mr. Ogan said he has demands in exchange for throwing his support to a candidate, all of them aimed at promoting nationalist causes. For one, he wants a scheduled plan to deport the refugees from many countries, including Syria and Afghanistan. And in exchange for endorsing a candidate, he also wants a very senior post in the new administration to see his demands through.“Why would I be a minister when I can be vice president?” he said.He declined to say whether he was leaning toward a particular candidate.He said he admired Mr. Erdogan’s work ethic, but also criticized him for not consulting enough with others before making decisions. Mr. Kilicdarolu, he said, was not as hard working but widely solicited others’ opinions.The opposition camp, overlapping with the far right on some issues, including the desire to send the Syrian refugees home, could step up efforts to sway nationalist voters before the runoff.Idris Sahin, an official with DEVA, one of the opposition parties backing Mr. Kilicdaroglu, said his party had done a “sociological study” of Mr. Ogan’s voters and would soon launch a campaign targeting them.On Wednesday, Mr. Kilicdaroglu released a campaign video attacking Mr. Erdogan and his party with harsh nationalist rhetoric.“The border is honor,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu said, referring to the president’s allowing millions of refugees from Syria and elsewhere to settle in Turkey. He called the refugees an “unruly flood of people flowing into our veins every day” and warned that their number would increase and “threaten our survival!”Mr. Ogan would not answer directly when asked whether he had spoken with Mr. Erdogan about a possible endorsement. Officials from Mr. Erdogan’s party and the opposition have not spoken publicly about any negotiations with Mr. Ogan.“I talk to everyone,” he said.Among Mr. Ogan’s other demands, he said he doesn’t want any political party that he considers connected to terrorism — a term the government often uses to refer to Kurdish militants — to have any role in the government.He mentioned two parties specifically: the Free Cause Party, a hard-line Islamist party allied with Mr. Erdogan, and the pro-Kurdish Peoples’ Democratic Party, or H.D.P., which supported Mr. Kilicdaroglu.The first grew out of an underground Islamist organization known for murdering journalists, intellectuals and others in previous decades. The party’s current leaders say they reject violence.Turkey has fought a yearslong and deadly battle against Kurdish militants and the government often accuses the H.D.P. of cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which Turkey, the United States and the European Union all consider a terrorist organization. H.D.P. leaders deny that accusation and say they condemn violence.Mr. Ogan credited his campaign with elevating nationalist causes during the election and hard-right factions also fared well in parliamentary elections. In particular, Mr. Erdogan’s strongest allies in Parliament, the Nationalist Movement Party, performed better than expected.“We blew a very nationalist wind into the field,” Mr. Ogan said.But analysts said it was more likely that such sentiments were already rising among the electorate and Mr. Ogan just happened to catch the wave.Gulsin Harman More

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      Trounced, Conservatives Feel Voters’ Wrath in English Heartlands

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      Defections in the once solidly Conservative southern “blue wall” drove large losses in recent municipal elections.LITTLEWICK GREEN, England — Aged 22 and not long out of college, George Blundell never expected to win when he ran in municipal elections against a Conservative Party bigwig in a region long loyal to the Tories. But for a young, enthusiastic, former politics student it still seemed worth a shot.“I was like, ‘Well, what’s stopping me’? It’s not something you get to do every day, is it?” recalled Mr. Blundell, a member of the centrist Liberal Democrats, as he sipped a beer outside the village pub where he once washed dishes as a summer job.To his surprise, Mr. Blundell is now a councilor representing the area around Littlewick Green, having defeated the powerful incumbent in perhaps the biggest upset from local elections that have sent shock waves through Britain’s governing Conservative Party.Unhappy about Brexit and aghast at the economic chaos unleashed during Liz Truss’s brief leadership last year, traditional Conservative voters are deserting the party in key English heartlands, contributing to the loss of more than 1,000 municipality seats in voting this month.With a general election expected next year, that is alarming for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has earned solid marks as a problem solver and seems to have stanched the party’s bleeding from the Ms. Truss fiasco, but whose party nevertheless lags far behind the opposition Labour Party in opinion polls.In these affluent areas within reach of London — called the “blue wall” after the campaign color of the Conservatives — the Liberal Democrats and the Greens, rather than Labour, made big gains in this month’s local elections. But when the next general election comes, the defection of voters from the Conservative Party could deprive Mr. Sunak of a parliamentary majority and propel Labour’s leader, Keir Starmer, into Downing Street.The village pub at Littlewick Green, near Maidenhead.Olivia Harris for The New York TimesIt could also sweep from Parliament prominent Conservatives — like the chancellor of the Exchequer, Jeremy Hunt, and the senior cabinet minister, Michael Gove — who hold seats in Conservative southern heartlands, as does the former prime minister, Theresa May, the member of Parliament for Maidenhead.According to Robert Ford, professor of political science at the University of Manchester, they have only themselves to blame because many moderate Conservatives feel their party has abandoned them, rather than the other way around.“Their Conservative Party was about stable government and low taxes, and looking after the City of London,” he said, referring to the financial district to which many voters here commute. “This Conservative government has delivered none of that.”“Rishi Sunak turning up and saying ‘Don’t worry, I know we spent five years burning down the house, but someone who is not an arsonist is in charge now,’” Professor Ford said. “Well, it’s not enough.”Certainly, it proved insufficient in Littlewick Green which, with its village pub, cricket field and pavilion flying British flags, is an unlikely spot for a political insurrection.Yet, so successful was Mr. Blundell that, when he joined a crowd of around 200 people celebrating the coronation of King Charles III, they greeted their newly-elected representative with spontaneous applause.Mr. Blundell, who works as a training adviser for an education firm, said he blushed so hard that “I basically turned into a human tomato.” He added: “I’ve known them all for a long time, and I want to do well by them and help them out — even if it’s the smallest things.”Mr. Blundell prevailed in Littlewick Green, despite its tony image as a place having a cricket field, a village pub, and a pavilion flying British flags.Olivia Harris for The New York TimesIn this quintessential corner of “blue wall” Britain, Mr. Blundell lives with his siblings (he is a triplet) and mother, a vicar, in a house that was once used as a set by the makers of “Midsomer Murders,” a TV detective show featuring gory crimes in scenic English villages.Mr. Blundell attributes his victory to a combination of national politics, local factors and the complacency of local Conservatives. The night of the count was “spectacular,” he added.Simon Werner, the leader of the Liberal Democrats in Windsor and Maidenhead, thinks the success can be repeated in a general election. “The ‘blue wall’ is crumbling,” he said. “We’ve proved we can do it on a local basis and now we have to step up and do it at the general election next year.”In part, the events here represent the aftershocks of the polarizing leadership of Boris Johnson, who won a landslide general election victory in 2019 with the support of voters in deindustrialized areas in the north and middle of England. But Mr. Johnson’s bombastic, pro-Brexit rhetoric, disdain for the business sector and focus on regenerating the north of England never endeared him to moderate Conservatives in the south.Most stuck with the Tories in 2019 because Labour was then led by the left-winger, Jeremy Corbyn. But with the more centrist Mr. Starmer now firmly in charge, the prospect of a Labour government is no longer so scary for many traditional Tories, liberating them to abandon the Conservatives.Professor Ford added, the Tories had caricatured and pilloried their own supporters for years, with some Conservative politicians characterizing such voters as a privileged elite.“If you tell people often enough that they are not welcome, eventually they will get the message,” said Professor Ford.Even some Conservative lawmakers admit they are worried by the appeal of the Liberal Democrats to these voters.“Those traditional moderate Conservatives for whom the world works very well — who were happy to be in the European Union because it worked for them — yes, I am concerned to attract them back from the Liberal Democrats,” said Steve Baker, a government minister and lawmaker who represents Wycombe, close to Windsor and Maidenhead.Mr. Blundell chats with his mother in Littlewick Green.Olivia Harris for The New York TimesThere are demographic factors at play as well, as younger voters relocate from London, a Labour stronghold, forced out by high property prices.But local issues are important, too. At Maidenhead Golf Club, which was established in 1896, there is anger that the Conservative-controlled municipality facilitated plans to construct around 1,800 houses on the 132 acres of land the club rents — threatening to make the club homeless.Merv Foulds, a former club treasurer and lifelong Conservative voter, said that on election day he decided not to join his wife at their polling station, adding: “If I had I would not have voted Tory.”Both locally and nationally the Conservatives are seen as untrustworthy, he said, while Mr. Sunak has yet to prove persuasive.“Sometimes, when he speaks, you just get the feeling he is speaking down to you,” said Mr. Foulds, an accountant. “At least with Boris you felt that he was talking to you — even though he might have been talking drivel, and maybe lying through his back teeth as well.”In Woodlands Park, a less affluent district of Windsor and Maidenhead, Barbara Hatfield a cleaner, said she had voted for several parties in recent elections but was worried about hikes in food prices and angry about development in the town center.A house decorated with a Union Jack in Littlewick Green.Olivia Harris for The New York Times“Maidenhead is terrible, it looks like Beirut,” she said of the town, where there has been construction work, adding that she was unsure how she would vote in a general election.Another uncommitted voter is Mr. Blundell’s mother, Tina Molyneux, who ministers at local churches as well as being head of discipleship and social justice in the diocese of Oxford. She has her own theory of why her son was victorious.“Everybody was saying ‘There’s got to be a change,’” she said. “There was something to do with youth and a fresh approach.”Rev. Molyneux said she had previously voted for Mrs. May, whom she still respects, but will not support her at the general election because the Conservatives have “gone to the right.” More

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      Turkey’s President Fights for Political Survival

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      Rob Szypko, Rachelle Bonja, Michael Simon Johnson and Lisa Chow and Diane Wong and For two decades, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has loomed large over Turkish politics. But skyrocketing inflation and a devastating earthquake have eroded his power and, in a presidential election over the weekend, he was forced into a runoff.Ben Hubbard, The Times’s Istanbul bureau chief, discusses how Turkey’s troubles have made Mr. Erdogan politically vulnerable.On today’s episodeBen Hubbard, the Istanbul bureau chief for The New York Times.A crowd with a banner of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in Ankara, the Turkish capital, on Monday. Mr. Erdogan still leads his closest challenger by a comfortable margin heading into the runoff.Necati Savas/EPA, via ShutterstockBackground readingDespite the headwinds, Mr. Erdogan appears to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term. Here’s what to know.The election suggested that even if Mr. Erdogan’s grip on power has been loosened, it has not yet broken.There are a lot of ways to listen to The Daily. Here’s how.We aim to make transcripts available the next workday after an episode’s publication. You can find them at the top of the page.Ben Hubbard More

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      Taiwan’s Opposition Picks Hou Yu-ih, a Moderate, for Presidential Race

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      The Kuomintang nominated Hou Yu-ih, a popular mayor who has said little about geopolitical issues, as the party tries to appeal to voters wary of Beijing.Once a dominant political force, Taiwan’s main opposition party lost the last two presidential elections in large part because it has promoted closer ties with China. Now, faced with voters who have been alarmed by Beijing’s aggression toward the island, the Kuomintang is placing its hopes on a new type of candidate: a popular local leader with a blank slate on the thorny question of China.The Kuomintang, or Nationalist Party, on Wednesday nominated as its presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih, a 66-year-old, two-term mayor of New Taipei City and former police chief who has tried to strike a middle ground within the Kuomintang on the island’s relations with China. Mr. Hou launched his bid with a rallying call.“We must unite for victory, especially at this stage when our country is facing fierce and dangerous international circumstances,” Mr. Hou said following the announcement of his nomination. His candidacy sets the stage for a tight race next January that could chart a new course for Taiwan in the big-power standoff between China and the United States and reshape tensions around the Taiwan Strait, one of the world’s most dangerous flash points. Under the seven-year leadership of President Tsai Ing-wen of the governing Democratic Progressive Party, Taiwan has come under intensifying military and diplomatic pressure from China and pushed back by bolstering ties with the United States.Within the Kuomintang, Mr. Hou is regarded as a capable administrator with broad appeal, who “would generate the least internal party controversy, align with the general expectations of society and have the highest likelihood of winning in the presidential election,” said Huang Kwei-Bo, a professor of international relations at the National Chengchi University and a former deputy secretary-general of the Nationalist Party.Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn. He was a contender to be Taiwan’s next president, but his lack of political experience lost him the Kuomintang’s nomination.Ann Wang/ReutersMr. Hou’s nomination pits him against Lai Ching-te, the governing party candidate and current vice president. A win for Mr. Lai would likely mean a continuation of China’s policies to freeze out Taiwan from any high-level engagement, as well as Taiwan’s continued closeness with the United States. A victory for Mr. Hou and the Kuomintang could reopen communication channels with China and tamp down military tensions, potentially reducing the pressure on Taiwan to strengthen ties with Washington.Mr. Hou faced tough competition from Terry Gou, the founder of the iPhone and electronics manufacturer Foxconn, who failed despite holding rallies around the island to make his case for nomination. Analysts said Mr. Gou’s lack of experience in politics and his business interests in China made him an unviable candidate for the Kuomintang.The Kuomintang in recent years has struggled to balance its China-friendly leanings with the Taiwan population’s souring sentiment toward Beijing. That juggling act has been complicated by Beijing’s crackdown on Hong Kong in 2019 and its ramped-up military drills around Taiwan. The governing D.P.P. has positioned itself as a defender of Taiwan’s sovereignty and democracy, and pointed to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as an example of the urgent threat of authoritarian expansionism.But the Kuomintang scored big last year, prevailing in almost two-thirds of local mayoral elections contested, races in which geopolitics matter less than bread-and-butter issues. Mr. Hou handily won his re-election as mayor and has since topped multiple polls within the party for the candidacy.The chairman of the Kuomintang, Eric Chu, second from left, followed by Mr. Hou in the center, and Wayne Chiang, a Taipei mayoral candidate, at an election rally last year.Ann Wang/ReutersUnlike most politicians in Taiwan, Mr. Hou began his career as a police officer, in the 1980s. He rose through the ranks and was a key investigator into the 2004 assassination attempt against President Chen Shui-bian. In 2006, Mr. Chen’s administration promoted Mr. Hou to the position of chief of the island’s police force, the youngest officer ever to serve in the role.In his turn to politics in 2010, he joined hands with Eric Chu, who was then the mayor of New Taipei City. Mr. Hou served as the deputy mayor under Mr. Chu and succeeded Mr. Chu as mayor in 2018. Mr. Chu is now the chairman of the Kuomintang.Supporters of Mr. Hou in New Taipei City say that he takes real actions to improve the lives of residents. Jax Chen, a 28-year-old nonprofit worker, referred to Mr. Hou’s effort to transform a giant, decades-old garbage dump into green park space as one example.“In Taiwan’s political scene, it seems like everyone is just talking too much,” he said. “But if there is a person who is pragmatic with capabilities to enforce policies, I believe it would be great and everyone would be willing to accept the person.”Mr. Hou, right, in 2004, when he was the commissioner of the Criminal Investigation Bureau and a key investigator of the assassination attempt against President Chen Shui-bian.Saeed Khan/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesLess well established are Mr. Hou’s views on major geopolitical questions such as how Taiwan should navigate its relationships with China and the United States. China claims Taiwan as its territory, to be absorbed with force if necessary, and accuses the D.P.P. of seeking formal independence. The Kuomintang has asserted that it is the party with the best chance of engaging China and avoiding war.In an apparent effort to thread the needle, Mr. Hou has said he both opposes Taiwan independence and the “one country, two systems” formulation proposed by China to absorb Taiwan. The position eschews two extremes but leaves open a huge number of possible viewpoints on the existential issue of cross-strait relations.The lack of clarity about his stance on China has already been criticized by some observers, a potential disadvantage for him on top of his lack of experience in foreign affairs, said Paul Chao-hsiang Chu, a politics professor at National Taiwan Normal University who studies party politics and voters’ behavior.At the same time, Mr. Hou’s reticence could make him more appealing to centrist voters, said Liao Da-chi, an emeritus professor of political science at the National Sun Yat-Sen University. That is in contrast to Han Kuo-yu, the Kuomintang’s presidential candidate in 2020, who made rousing speeches and pledged to restore closer relations with China but lost in a landslide to President Tsai.Despite vowing to improve relations with China, the Kuomintang’s 2020 presidential candidate, Han Kuo-yu, center, lost to President Tsai Ing-wen.Ritchie B Tongo/EPA, via ShutterstockOverall, Mr. Hou has had very few interactions with the United States, said Bonnie Glaser, a Taiwan expert and managing director of the Indo-Pacific program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. Mr. Hou has said that he has met with officials at the American Institute in Taiwan, the de facto embassy for the United States, at least eight times. But American congressional delegations to Taiwan since its reopening have not been able to meet with him.As Beijing stokes tensions in the Taiwan Strait, the Kuomintang’s contact with China has sometimes put it in an awkward position.Earlier this year, just as President Tsai traveled to the United States, Ma Ying-jeou, a former president of Taiwan and an influential leader in the Kuomintang, headed for China on an unofficial trip. Mr. Ma was criticized in Taiwan for appearing to kowtow to China on an inappropriately timed visit. (In retaliation for Ms. Tsai’s visit to the United States, China sent record numbers of military aircraft, as well as naval ships and an aircraft carrier, near Taiwan to conduct military drills.)“To win the election, it is imperative for the Kuomintang to persuade the people that voting for them is the safer and more promising choice in achieving peace,” Dr. Chu said. “At the same time, how it would convince the Taiwanese people they will not betray Taiwan or allow China to completely swallow up Taiwan’s sovereignty presents a significant challenge for Kuomintang.”A Chinese naval vessel near Dongju Island, Taiwan, in April.Lam Yik Fei for The New York Times More