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      Turkey’s Opposition Struggles to Make Up Ground as Runoff Nears

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      President Recep Tayyip Erdogan looks likely to take most of the votes that went to an ultranationalist candidate eliminated in the first round.After heading into elections with high hopes, Turkey’s political opposition is struggling to fight off despair and plot a course to give their candidate a fighting chance against the incumbent, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in a runoff later this month.While Mr. Erdogan, bidding for a third five-year presidential term, failed to win a simple majority in Sunday’s election, he still led the opposition by a margin of about five percentage points. That, and a number of other indications, point to a win for the president in the second round on May 28.Importantly, Mr. Erdogan looks likely to be the primary beneficiary of votes from supporters of an ultranationalist third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who has been eliminated despite a surprisingly strong showing over the weekend. The first-round results pointed to growing nationalist sentiment across the electorate that will probably boost the president.All of that amounts to an uphill battle for the challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who heads a six-party coalition that came together with the goals of unseating Mr. Erdogan, restoring Turkish democracy, righting the economy and smoothing over frazzled relations with the West.“Obviously, it is difficult,” said Can Selcuki, the director of the Turkey Report, which publishes polls and political analysis.Sinan Ogan, an ultranationalist candidate, in Ankara this month. Despite being eliminated after Sunday’s vote, he made a surprisingly strong showing.Burhan Ozbilici/Associated PressMr. Selcuki, who had predicted a stronger showing by the opposition, said that the coalition now appeared to have at least two options: find a way to increase turnout among supportive voters and adopt a more nationalist tone that might attract crossover votes.So far, opposition leaders have publicly said very little about how they might modify their campaign before the runoff.“I am here, I am here,” Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the opposition candidate, said in a video posted on Twitter on Monday that showed him uncharacteristically banging on a desk. “I swear I will fight to the end.”In another post on Tuesday, he tried to rally younger voters, cautioning that a win by his opponent would lead to “a bottomless darkness.”Still, the math does not appear to be in his favor.Mr. Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the vote, versus 44.9 percent for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, according to the Turkish electoral authority. The third candidate, Mr. Ogan, received 5.2 percent, and his right-wing supporters seem more likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan in the runoff.Going into the first round, most polls indicated a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, but since the results came out, analysts have tried to explain why the opposition performed worse than expected.The six parties that backed Mr. Kilicdaroglu represent a disparate range of backgrounds and ideologies, including nationalists, staunch secularists and even Islamists who had defected from Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party.While their primary unifying goal was to unseat Mr. Erdogan, they tried to sell voters on a different vision for Turkey’s future. That included restoring the independence of state institutions such as the Foreign Ministry and the central bank; a return to orthodox financial policies aimed at taming painfully high inflation and enticing foreign investors; and the strengthening of civil liberties, including freedom of expression and of association, which Mr. Erdogan has limited.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the vote versus 44.9 percent for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, according to the Turkish electoral authority.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesMr. Erdogan mounted a campaign that linked him in voters’ minds to Turkey’s increasing military might and independence. In interviews, many pro-Erdogan voters expressed admiration for Turkey’s defense industry, particularly its drones, which have played key roles in a number of conflicts, including in Ukraine and in Ethiopia.He also demonized the opposition, associating them with terrorism. This line of attack capitalized on the support that Mr. Kilicdaroglu has received from Turkey’s pro-Kurdish party, the country’s third-largest. The government has accused that party’s officials and members of cooperation with the Kurdistan Workers’ Party, or P.K.K., which it has designated a terrorist organization.At campaign rallies, Mr. Erdogan even showed a video that had been manipulated to make it look as if a P.K.K. leader was clapping along with one of Mr. Kilicdaroglu’s campaign songs.Turkey has fought a long and deadly battle against Kurdish militants, and the government often accuses Kurdish politicians of cooperating with them. Many Kurdish politicians have been jailed, prosecuted or removed from office because of such allegations.The overall results of Sunday’s vote, including for the Turkish Parliament, amounted to a strong showing by right-wing nationalists. The Nationalist Movement Party, Mr. Erdogan’s strongest ally in Parliament, increased its share, and Mr. Ogan did much better than polls had predicted.Those candidates emphasize Turkish identity and national security, demonize the Kurds and call for the more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey to be sent home. All appear to have benefited from Mr. Erdogan’s warnings about terrorism.In the runoff on May 28, Mr. Erdogan looks likely to be the primary beneficiary of votes from supporters of Mr. Ogan.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesAt the same time, some of the smaller parties that Mr. Kilicdaroglu brought into his coalition failed to mobilize significant numbers of voters.In his message aimed at Turkey’s younger voters on Tuesday, Mr. Kilicdaroglu returned to the state of the country’s economy, focusing on how inflation, which exceeded 80 percent last year, had eroded the value of people’s incomes.“You don’t have money for anything. You have to do calculations for a cup of coffee,” he wrote. “Yet youth means being carefree. They didn’t allow you to have that for even a day.”He also returned to the opposition’s central theme, the effort to remove Mr. Erdogan and reverse his tilt toward authoritarian rule.“Those who want change in this country are more than those who don’t want it,” he wrote. “But this is clear: we are the side that needs to fight harder to get rid of such a tyrant government.” More

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      Cambodia Disqualifies Main Opposition Party Ahead of Election

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      Prime Minister Hun Sen, whose grip on power has lasted 38 years, has said he wants his son to succeed him, laying the groundwork for a new political dynasty.For the second consecutive parliamentary election, Cambodia has disqualified the country’s main opposition party, eliminating the only credible challenge to the ruling party of Prime Minister Hun Sen.The country’s National Election Commission on Monday refused to register the party, the Candlelight Party, for a general election scheduled in July, saying it had failed to file required paperwork and was therefore ineligible to take part in the contest.Mr. Hun Sen’s Cambodian People’s Party currently holds all 125 seats in Parliament after government-controlled courts dissolved its main challenger, the Cambodian National Rescue Party, or C.N.R.P., before the 2018 election. The Candlelight Party, with many of the same members, took its place.Opposition party members said they would appeal the Election Commission ruling. After the C.N.R.P. was dissolved in 2017, Mr. Hun Sen has moved on several fronts to neutralize the remaining opposition. Government-controlled courts convicted about 100 opposition figures of treason and other charges, jailing some and prompting several of its leaders to flee into exile.The most prominent opposition figure to remain in Cambodia, Kem Sokha, was tried on a charge of treason and sentenced in March to 27 years of house arrest. In February, the government shut down a popular news outlet, Voice of Democracy, claiming it had published a false report. It was one of the few remaining publications to provide critical coverage of the government.The United Nations Human Rights Commission said at the time that “these actions seriously undermine the civic and political space, including the environment for free and fair elections in July.” Last month, Human Rights Watch accused the Cambodian government of stepping up verbal attacks that had led to violent assaults on members of the Candlelight Party.“Dismantling opposition parties and disqualifying, assaulting and arresting their members before election day means that there won’t be any real election at all,” it said in a statement.Members of the Candlelight Party said the Election Commission had demanded original copies of official party documents, which they said they no longer had because they had been seized in a police raid in 2017.After its ruling, the Election Commission said it had approved the registration of more than 10 other parties. These parties included those aligned with the ruling Cambodian People’s Party, or small, obscure parties that do not pose a serious electoral challenge to the prime minister.Mr. Hun Sen, 70, has held power for 38 years, eliminating opposition through the courts, through electoral manipulation, through violence and intimidation, and a coup in 1997. He has anointed his eldest son, Army chief Hun Manet, to succeed him and has indicated that the transition of family power would follow this year’s election in July.“This is a very dangerous year for Hun Sen,” Sam Rainsy, a prominent opposition leader, wrote from exile in an essay published online earlier this month. “It’s the year when he decided to establish a political dynasty straight after the elections,” he wrote. More

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      Elección en Turquía: Erdogan podría volver a ganar

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      A pesar de una economía en dificultades, los terremotos de febrero y la deriva de Turquía hacia un gobierno unipersonal, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se situó en cabeza antes de la segunda vuelta.ANKARA, Turquía — El aumento de la inflación empobreció a su pueblo. Su gobierno fue acusado de negligencia en su respuesta a los catastróficos terremotos en los que murieron más de 50.000 personas hace solo tres meses. Y se enfrentaba a una oposición recientemente unificada que prometía abandonar su tendencia constante hacia el gobierno unipersonal.A pesar de todo eso, el presidente Recep Tayyip Erdogan se impuso a su principal rival en las elecciones turcas, según los resultados oficiales publicados el lunes. Aunque no alcanzó la mayoría absoluta, por lo que el país celebrará una segunda vuelta el 28 de mayo, hay indicios claros de que Erdogan volverá a ganar las elecciones.“Para Erdogan, este es su gran final”, dijo Mehmet Ali Kulat, un destacado encuestador turco que había previsto una victoria más contundente de la oposición.Con casi todas las papeletas escrutadas el lunes, los resultados preliminares oficiales le daban a Erdogan el 49,5 por ciento de los votos frente al 44,9 por ciento de Kemal Kilicdaroglu, su principal rival y líder de la oposición. Un tercer candidato, Sinan Ogan, obtuvo el 5,2 por ciento, y sus partidarios de derecha tienen más probabilidades de votar por Erdogan en la segunda vuelta, según los analistas. Por último, el partido de Erdogan y sus aliados preservaron su mayoría dominante en la votación parlamentaria, lo que probablemente aumenta sus posibilidades de ser reelegido.Pero el hecho de que Erdogan no haya podido obtener más del 50 por ciento de los votos —incluso después de haber utilizado muchos de los recursos del poder para inclinar la balanza de las elecciones a su favor— indica que algunos votantes se han cansado de su gestión financiera y de la drástica consolidación del poder en sus manos.Recuento de votos en Estambul, el domingoSergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesMuchos medios de comunicación turcos son propiedad de empresarios que apoyan a Erdogan, lo que le ha garantizado un flujo constante de cobertura positiva y poca atención a las acusaciones de corrupción o los errores de la gestión. El gobierno ha hecho que algunas organizaciones de noticias críticas tengan que cerrar, ha multado a otras por su cobertura y procesó a algunos periodistas. La organización Reporteros sin Fronteras clasifica a Turquía en el puesto 165 en cuanto a libertad de prensa, de los 180 países que califica.La oposición no reconoció oficialmente el liderazgo de Erdogan ni impugnó las cifras, pero afirmó que trabajará para ganar la segunda vuelta.“Nos levantaremos y ganaremos juntos estas elecciones”, escribió Kilicdaroglu en Twitter el lunes. “Al final solo será lo que diga nuestra nación”.En sus 20 años como líder político dominante de Turquía, primero como primer ministro y luego como presidente, Erdogan y su Partido de la Justicia y el Desarrollo han derrotado de manera regular a sus oponentes en las urnas. La última vez que Erdogan participó en las elecciones fue en 2018, y obtuvo el 52 por ciento de los votos en la primera vuelta, superando al más cercano de sus tres contrincantes por 22 puntos porcentuales. Esta vez le fue peor, lo que provocó la primera segunda vuelta presidencial en la historia de Turquía.El domingo, la participación electoral en todo el país fue de casi el 89 por ciento, lo que subraya la gran fe de los turcos en las elecciones.Erdogan enfrentó una considerable resistencia antes de la votación.Desde 2018, Turquía ha estado luchando con una moneda que se hunde y una dolorosa inflación que superó el 80 por ciento anual el año pasado y en abril se situó en el 44 por ciento.Las cifras publicadas en un local de cambio de divisas en Estambul reflejan la fuerte caída de la lira turca, lo que ha disparado la inflación.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesSus oponentes se unieron en una coalición sin precedentes de seis partidos que respaldaron a Kilicdaroglu. A lo largo de la campaña, la oposición cortejó a los votantes prometiendo arreglar la economía, restablecer las libertades civiles y construir una sociedad más integradora, en marcado contraste con la retórica polarizante de Erdogan.Pero no fue suficiente.Los analistas describieron los resultados como el último ejemplo de las formidables habilidades de supervivencia de Erdogan.Kulat dijo que los terremotos del 6 de febrero ayudaron a Erdogan de forma inesperada. La vasta destrucción no solo dejó a un gran número de personas sin hogar, sino que presionó a las comunidades cercanas a la zona afectada al aumentar los precios de los alquileres. Esto aumentó el atractivo de las promesas electorales de Erdogan de construir nuevas viviendas en la zona afectada por el terremoto en el plazo de un año.“Los ciudadanos dijeron: ‘Si alguien puede construirme una casa, es Erdogan’”, dijo Kulat.Pero el mandatario también utilizó su poder para inclinar la campaña a su favor. Y como presidente en funciones en un sistema con pocos controles del poder presidencial, Erdogan utilizó de manera eficaz al Estado como parte de su campaña al repartir nuevos beneficios para los votantes usando los recursos de las arcas nacionales.Erdogan hizo campaña tachando a sus oponentes de incompetentes, diciendo que los apoya una conspiración occidental y que eran cómplices de terroristas. También buscó oportunidades para vincularse en la mente de los votantes con imágenes del creciente poderío e independencia turcos, aparcando un buque de guerra en el centro de Estambul para que lo visitaran las familias y convirtiéndose en el primer propietario de un coche eléctrico fabricado en Turquía.Rescatistas sobre los escombros dejados por los terremotos que mataron a decenas de miles de personas, en Kahramanmaras, Turquía, en febrero.Sergey Ponomarev para The New York TimesTanto él como sus ministros lo presentan como el defensor de los turcos religiosos, avivando sus temores al decirles que la oposición pretendía arrebatarles sus nuevas libertades y ampliar los derechos de las personas homosexuales. Aunque Turquía es una sociedad predominantemente musulmana, se fundó como un Estado firmemente laico que mantenía fuera de la vida pública a la mayoría de los signos externos de la religión. Erdogan flexibilizó algunas de esas normas, incluida la prohibición de que las mujeres que ocupan cargos públicos usen pañuelos en la cabeza.Parece que estos temas han convencido a un número suficiente de votantes como para que Erdogan lidere la contienda.“La identificación política es muy ‘pegajosa’ y no se deshace fácilmente debido a nueva información o experiencia”, escribió en un correo electrónico Howard Eissenstat, profesor asociado de historia en la Universidad de St. Lawrence. “El énfasis de Erdogan en el nacionalismo, el terrorismo y los nefastos complots occidentales no es algo menor para muchos votantes: es el núcleo de su visión del mundo”.En contraste con lo que Erdogan podía ofrecer a los votantes, la oposición solo podía ofrecer promesas.Para conseguir su apoyo, Kilicdaroglu reunió a seis partidos que incluían a nacionalistas de derecha, laicos acérrimos e islamistas, lo que es visto como una hazaña. Pero muchos votantes se preguntaron cómo una coalición tan amplia podría mantenerse unida, y mucho menos dirigir el país.“A pesar de la frustración por la economía y los efectos de los terremotos, mucha gente no creía que una coalición de la oposición —especialmente una con divisiones ideológicas internas y luchas personales por el poder— pudiera gobernar con eficacia”, dijo Lisel Hintz, profesora adjunta de relaciones internacionales en la Escuela de Estudios Internacionales Avanzados de la Universidad Johns Hopkins.Según Hintz, el hecho de que Kilicdaroglu pertenezca a una minoría religiosa probablemente también haya desanimado a algunos votantes. Es aleví, miembro de una secta musulmana heterodoxa que es mal vista por algunos miembros de la mayoría musulmana suní de Turquía.“Es probable que algunos suníes no quieran votar por un aleví”, dijo Hintz.El principal aspirante de la oposición, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, tras votar el domingo en la capital, Ankara.Bulent Kilic/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesAunque ningún votante entrevistado en las últimas semanas expresó abiertamente esos sentimientos, muchos expresaron su preocupación por otro grupo minoritario, criticando a la oposición por trabajar con el principal partido a favor de los kurdos de Turquía y comparando esa decisión con establecer una alianza con terroristas.Turquía ha librado una larga y mortal batalla contra los militantes kurdos que son considerados terroristas por el gobierno turco, Estados Unidos y la Unión Europea. Además, las autoridades turcas suelen acusar a los políticos kurdos de cooperar con los militantes, y muchos de ellos han sido encarcelados, procesados o destituidos por esas acusaciones.Erdogan ha jugado con el temor sobre esos vínculos, y muchos votantes consideran que la oposición simpatiza con esa militancia.“Me preocupa que gane el otro bando y que eso sea malo para el país”, dijo Melike Kurt, recién licenciada, tras votar a Erdogan el domingo. En concreto, mencionó su preocupación porque se pusiera en libertad a personas encarceladas por cargos relacionados con el terrorismo.Como mujer devota que usa un pañuelo en la cabeza, también elogió a Erdogan por defender que las mujeres como ella pudieran vestir como quisieran, y le preocupaba que un gobierno de la oposición anulara esos derechos en nombre del laicismo estatal.“No puedo imaginarme en qué situación estaríamos si perdiéramos”, dijo Kurt, de 24 años. “Creo que nuestras libertades se verían limitadas si ganan, en lo que respecta a los pañuelos en la cabeza y otros temas”.Safak Timur More

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      Your Tuesday Briefing: A Runoff in Turkey

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      Also, Thailand’s opposition parties agreed to form a coalition.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has concentrated power in his own hands over the past two decades.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesTurkey’s election heads to a runoffPresident Recep Tayyip Erdogan failed to secure a first-round victory in Turkey’s presidential election and will now face a runoff on May 28. Still, he seems well positioned to win another five-year term.Preliminary results showed that Erdogan won 49.5 percent of the votes on Sunday, ahead of his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, who got 44.9 percent. The right-wing supporters of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, who was knocked out of the race, are more likely to vote for Erdogan in the runoff, increasing his chances of winning.Erdogan’s party and its allies also maintained a commanding majority in Parliament during elections for those seats, which were also held on Sunday. That probably further increases Erdogan’s ability to be re-elected.But the fact that Erdogan could not win a majority — even after he tilted the playing field to his advantage by using state resources for his campaign and relying on sympathetic media — indicates that some voters are frustrated with his financial management and consolidation of power.Lost ground: Preliminary results showed that, compared with the 2018 presidential election, almost every part of the country shifted against Erdogan. Some of the sharpest rebukes came from the provinces around Turkey’s two largest cities, Istanbul and Ankara.Analysis: Experts described the results as just the latest example of Erdogan’s formidable survival skills.Pita Limjaroenrat, in the white shirt, greeted supporters in Bangkok yesterday.Rungroj Yongrit/EPA, via ShutterstockThai opposition agrees to form coalitionThailand’s two opposition parties said yesterday that they would work together to form a coalition government after they won a clear majority in the general election over the weekend. But it remains unclear if the junta will hand over power easily.Pita Limjaroenrat, the head of the progressive Move Forward Party, led the effort to build a coalition and could become prime minister. He said he was not concerned about opposition from the military-appointed Senate, which could still block his nomination. “I don’t think the people of Thailand would allow that to happen,” he said.But if history is any indicator, the military is unlikely to relinquish power quickly. Generals rewrote the Constitution in 2017 to stack the Senate with allies and ensure that the military would determine the next prime minister. Analysts said any effort to block Pita from leading the country would most likely set off protests.Quotable: “Right now, many people have Pita as their new prime minister in their minds,” an expert said. “If Pita cannot be prime minister, and Move Forward cannot form the government, it will break the people’s hearts. And it will be very, very bad.”Several small Chinese mining companies have sought in recent years to mine gold from the Central African Republic.ReutersChinese workers face threats abroadIn March, a group of gunmen stormed a remote mine in the Central African Republic and killed nine Chinese workers there. The attack, and others like it, raise questions about China’s ability to protect its citizens overseas.The C.A.R. government blamed a rebel group for the attack; the rebels blamed Russia’s Wagner mercenary group, which, in turn, accused the rebels. No side has presented evidence. Only four government soldiers were protecting the site, though more than a dozen were supposed to have been there, a diplomat said. All four survived.The murkiness has underscored a growing security challenge facing Beijing as Chinese companies expand. Often, they do business in the middle of conflict zones with limited protection. Chinese security frequently relies on a patchwork of local military personnel, mercenaries and private firms to protect Chinese workers.Quotable: “China is on thin ice in the sense that they’re entering some of the most poorly governed places in the world and supercharging conflicts,” an expert in Chinese development finance said. “And every time an attack happens, it angers the Chinese public and forces China to reconsider this light-touch, hands-off approach.”THE LATEST NEWSAsia PacificPeople in Rohingya refugee camps were hit particularly hard by the storm.Sai Aung Main/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesHundreds of thousands of Rohingya refugees are homeless after Cyclone Mocha hit Myanmar and Bangladesh.China sentenced a 78-year-old U.S. citizen to life in prison for espionage.One of Japan’s top entertainment production companies issued an apology over sexual assault claims against its late founder.Cambodia’s ruling party is poised to run virtually unopposed in July after the election commission disqualified the main opposition party, Reuters reports.Around the WorldFor the first time, the U.N. commemorated the mass displacement of Palestinians in the wars surrounding the creation of Israel 75 years ago.The E.U. approved Microsoft’s $69 billion takeover of Activision Blizzard, after U.S. and British regulators both moved to block the deal.Despite fears of a sudden stampede at the U.S.-Mexico border after a pandemic-era policy ended, the area remained relatively quiet.Vice Media filed for bankruptcy. A group of lenders is in a position to acquire the company.The War in UkrainePrime Minister Rishi Sunak met with President Volodymyr Zelenskiy in England yesterday.Pool photo by Carl CourtBritain promised a large package of missiles and attack drones to Ukraine as President Volodymyr Zelensky paid a visit.Ukraine made further advances around Bakhmut, the country’s deputy defense minister said.Ukrainians are writing angry messages to Russia on the sides of rockets, mortar shells and exploding drones.A Morning ReadBalendra Shah, who is popularly known as Balen Shah, greeting constituents.Saumya Khandelwal for The New York TimesBefore he became the mayor of Kathmandu, Balendra Shah was a rap star who pursued a degree in engineering. His electoral success has inspired a wave of young candidates across Nepal to take on a political class perceived as corrupt and incompetent, and dominated by men in their late 60s and 70s who have held office for decades.ARTS AND IDEASPatricia Moreira/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesA Cannes previewFor cinephiles, there is no holier pilgrimage than the Cannes Film Festival, which begins today.It is a place where great auteurs have been canonized, like Martin Scorsese, who returns this year with a new feature, “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and Wes Anderson, who will present his ensemble comedy “Asteroid City.” These are the festival’s most anticipated premieres.Opening the festival is the period drama “Jeanne du Barry,” starring Johnny Depp as King Louis XV of France. But movies aren’t the only thing to watch during Cannes. The film festival will also make red carpet waves.PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookArmando Rafael for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Have an air fryer? Make this flavorful chicken breast.What to ReadIn Emma Cline’s latest, “The Guest,” the heroine is a call girl on the run.What to Watch“Monica” is about a transgender woman who is introduced as a stranger to care for her dying mother.What to PlayI wrote about the global sports craze that is padel.Mental HealthThere are ways to ease postpartum depression.Now Time to PlayPlay the Mini Crossword, and a clue: Tear to pieces (five letters).Here are the Wordle and the Spelling Bee.You can find all our puzzles here.That’s it for today’s briefing. See you tomorrow. — AmeliaP.S. Our publisher, A.G. Sulzberger, wrote about independence as an essential journalistic value in Columbia Journalism Review.“The Daily” is about banned spyware.Send us your feedback at briefing@nytimes.com. Thanks for writing. More

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      Una estrategia para el dominio de un partido latinoamericano: la compra de votos

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      En las elecciones nacionales de Paraguay, el Times fue testigo de cómo representantes del gobernante Partido Colorado intentaban comprar los votos de las comunidades indígenas.La comunidad indígena Espinillo está a casi 21 kilómetros del centro de votación más cercano, y en la aldea nadie tiene auto.Es por eso que hace dos semanas, en vísperas de las elecciones en Paraguay, Miguel Paredes, un chofer de ambulancia retirado que se ha convertido en una figura política local, subió a las familias indígenas a un autobús y las llevó al costado de una carretera, a pocos pasos de las urnas. “Queremos cuidar por ellos”, dijo Paredes, de 65 años, vigilante y de pie junto a seis jóvenes a los que identificó como sus colegas.Al caer la noche, Paredes y sus colegas reunieron a algunos miembros de la comunidad indígena y anotaron sus números de identificación. Paredes les dijo que debían votar por el Partido Colorado —la fuerza política dominante de derecha en Paraguay— y asegurarse de que sus compañeros de la comunidad también lo hicieran. Luego, los jóvenes guiaron a los miembros de la comunidad indígena en una simulación de las máquinas de votación en un teléfono, y les indicaron cómo votar por los candidatos del Partido Colorado.Ante los periodistas de The New York Times, Milner Ruffinelli, uno de los jóvenes, pasó a hablar en guaraní, la lengua indígena oficial en el país. “Ese pedido de plata que se comprometió con ustedes, eso ya está también y el señor Miguel Paredes va a ver cómo hacerles llegar”, dijo. “Acá no podemos darles nada, ustedes saben por qué”. More

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      4 Takeaways from Turkey’s Nail-Biting Presidential Election

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan is headed for his — and his country’s — first presidential runoff vote. But the first round showed the longtime leader’s continued strength.Turkey’s nail-biter election will go to a runoff, election officials announced on Monday, extending a pivotal vote that has demonstrated that the incumbent, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is still a formidable political force, despite his failure to secure a first-round victory.Turkey’s Supreme Election Council said the runoff would be held May 28 after official preliminary results showed that Mr. Erdogan had won 49.5 percent of votes and his main challenger, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, 44.9 percent, with nearly all ballots counted. Mr. Erdogan, who has led Turkey for 20 years, appeared to be in a strong position to emerge with another five-year term.After a tumultuous night during which the rival camps each accused the other of rushing to declare results in advance of official tallies, both sides said early on Monday that they would accept a runoff — and predicted they would prevail.President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey failed to win a majority of the vote, setting the stage for a runoff against Kemal Kilicdaroglu, the main opposition candidate.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s voting was closely watched around the world for how it could shape the course of Turkey, an important NATO ally with a wide array of diplomatic and economic ties across continents. Of particular interest was the fate of Mr. Erdogan, who has often flummoxed and frustrated his Western partners, including the United States, and faced growing discontent amid high inflation and the destruction wrought by earthquakes in February that killed more than 50,000 in southern Turkey.Before the vote, most polls suggested a slight lead for Mr. Kilicdaroglu, the joint candidate of a newly formed alliance of six opposition parties. But the results showed Mr. Erdogan’s enduring appeal and influence.Here are some key takeaways:Turkey’s first runoffThis is the first election in Turkey’s history in which no presidential candidate secured a majority in the first round. It opens up a complicated two-week window during which the candidates will go all-out to pull more voters into their camps.Voting in Istanbul on Sunday. Turnout across the country exceeded 88 percent, according to the state-run news agency.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesSunday’s election was the country’s second since a 2017 referendum supported by Mr. Erdogan that changed Turkey from a parliamentary to a presidential system. Mr. Erdogan won the last two presidential contests, in 2014 and 2018, outright and by significant margins.His inability to do so this time makes clear that he has lost some support.Erdogan has the edgeMr. Erdogan appears to have the edge with his lead over Mr. Kilicdaroglu, just shy of an outright majority. The elimination of a third candidate, Sinan Ogan, leaves the 5.7 percent of voters who chose him, many of them from the right, up for grabs. Most, if they participate in a runoff, are likely to opt for Mr. Erdogan.In the run-up to the election, Mr. Erdogan freely tapped state resources to improve his chances, raising civil servant salaries and the national minimum wage and unleashing other government spending in an effort to insulate people from the immediate effects of high inflation. He could deploy more such measures between now and the runoff.Also helping Mr. Erdogan make his case is his party’s strong showing in Sunday’s parliamentary vote, which took place at the same time.Supporters of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan outside his campaign headquarters as he spoke there on Monday.Necati Savas/EPA, via ShutterstockPreliminary results suggested that Mr. Erdogan’s Justice and Development Party and its allies would keep their majority in the 600-seat Parliament. That would allow Mr. Erdogan to argue that he should win to avoid a divided government that could hamper the efficient functioning of the state.For his part, Mr. Kilicdaroglu has predicted that he would prevail in a runoff, telling supporters early Monday: “We will definitely win and bring democracy to this country.”Turks’ faith in elections remains highThe election council said that turnout on Sunday surpassed 88.9 percent of the 64 million eligible voters in Turkey and overseas. Some endured long lines and returned to quake-destroyed neighborhoods to exercise what many see as a national duty.The turnout figure is far greater than the 66.6 percent turnout in the 2020 presidential election in the United States. But such high numbers are not unusual in Turkey.Some voters endured long lines to exercise what many see as a national duty.Sergey Ponomarev for The New York TimesIn the last presidential and parliamentary elections, in 2018, around 85 percent of voters cast ballots. And since 1983, turnout in any election — including for mayors and city councils — has never fallen below 74 percent.Many political scientists don’t consider Turkey a pure democracy, largely because of the tremendous power exercised by the president and his ability to shape the political playing field before the vote.But Turks still take elections very seriously. That includes Mr. Erdogan, who told supporters early Monday that he was prepared to face a runoff.“In my political life, I’ve always respected your decision,” he said. “I expect the same democratic maturity from everyone.”Nationalism appeared to prevailTurkish voters may not prioritize foreign policy at the ballot box, but Mr. Erdogan’s decision to step up nationalist rhetoric during the campaign appears to have paid off, both for him and for his conservative parliamentary alliance.During the campaign, Mr. Erdogan had a warship dock in central Istanbul for voters to visit. He escalated his criticism of the United States, even claiming on the eve of the elections that President Biden was seeking to topple him.Mr. Erdogan and members of his party also openly accused the opposition of cooperating with terrorists because they received the support of Turkey’s main pro-Kurdish party. Turkish nationalists often accuse Kurdish politicians of supporting or cooperating with Kurdish militants who have been at war with the Turkish state for decades.Mr. Ogan, the candidate in third place, also spoke about prioritizing ways to send home the millions of Syrian refugees in Turkey and criticized the opposition coalition over its Kurdish support. In a runoff, the candidate who more effectively espouses nationalist positions could pick up more of Mr. Ogan’s supporters. More

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      Turkey Election Maps: Why Erdogan Is Headed For a Runoff

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      Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s longtime incumbent leader, will head to a presidential election runoff for the first time in his career after falling short of the 50 percent needed to win in national elections on Sunday. A map shows election results in all of Turkey’s provinces. The opposition leader Kemal Kilicdaroglu is ahead in the […] More

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      Trump Cannot Be Unseen

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      Gail Collins: Hey Bret, good to be conversing again. Heck of a lot going on. Before we get to the border or the budget, though, let me admit I’m shallow and start with the Trump town hall on CNN.Bret Stephens: Not shallow, Gail. But you are depressing me.Gail: Trump lost your Republican vote a long time ago, but if you were still on the fence, was there anything on display that evening that would have had an impact?Bret: I’m not exactly a reliable gauge of how today’s Republicans think: In November, I wrote a column called “Donald Trump Is Finally Finished,” which I may have to spend the rest of my life living down.That said, I would guess that if you’re the sort of voter who liked 80-proof Trump, you’re gonna love 120-proof Trump. And that’s what he was in that CNN town hall: more mendacious, more shameless, more unapologetic, more aggressive, nastier. But also undeniably vigorous, particularly when compared with Joe Biden. My guess is the town hall will consolidate his lead as the Republican front-runner.Your take? Should CNN have given him the platform?Gail: Don’t see any reason CNN shouldn’t have done the interview. Except that it reduces pressure on Trump to show up for any Republican primary debates. Which he naturally wants to avoid, given his ineptitude when it comes to actual policy questions.Bret: I’m of two minds. The media has a responsibility to cover the Republican front-runner, and I thought Kaitlan Collins, the CNN moderator, handled the responsibility about as well as anyone could have. Yet nonstop media attention is the oxygen on which Trump thrives. The more attention we give him — which is what we are doing right now — the stronger he gets.Gail: About the impact: Yeah, if you liked Trump before, you wouldn’t be deterred by his willingness to let the nation default, or his being “inclined” to pardon a lot of the Jan. 6 rioters.Really would like to hear an everybody-in primary debate, though. Without Trump, I guess the only suspense would be whether Ron DeSantis is capable of being … not terrible.Bret: Well, as much as I dislike DeSantis for his views on abortion and Ukraine and free speech, I also have to ask whether I’d prefer him to Trump as the Republican nominee. And there the answer is a resounding yes, much as I’d much prefer a peptic ulcer to stomach cancer.Gail: I’m still not inclined to pick DeSantis over — pretty much anybody. Yeah, Trump is worse when it comes to personal morality, and DeSantis probably wouldn’t be as divisive in the sense of not being exciting enough to really rile up the base.But his position on social issues like abortion is scary: He truly believes in imposing his extremist convictions on the country.Bret: True, but Trump believes in imposing his despotic convictions on the country.I also think it’s imperative that Democrats — and I don’t mean Robert Kennedy Jr. — start thinking about challenging Biden in the primary. That Washington Post-ABC poll showing Biden with a 36 percent approval rating and running 6 points behind Trump should scare the bejeezus out of Democrats — and that’s before we wind up in a recession or a full-scale banking crisis or a shooting war with China (or all three).Gail: Real-life fact is that no Democrat with the standing to potentially win a primary would challenge a sitting president. Especially one like Biden whose performance is … not bad. He’s had some real achievements, particularly in the super-important battle against global warming. Overall yes, he’s unexciting, and these days incapable of forcing the House Republicans to do anything really constructive. But his standards and character are high.Bret: As you know, I will vote for him over Trump or DeSantis. But Democrats overstate his achievements and underestimate his unpopularity at their own — actually, our own — peril.Gail: We both were wishing he’d announce he wasn’t running and open the door for other promising candidates to jump in. But since it’s not gonna happen … it’s not gonna happen.Bret: Probably right. Next subject: Your thoughts about the budget negotiations?Gail: I have faith that there’s not going to be a crushing default — that in a total crisis the Fed will figure out something. But when it comes to the bottom line I’m on the side of Joe Biden. (Surprise!) You do not use the country’s credit standing to stage a stupid battle about cutting funds for the poor.Bret: Well, by the same token, you do not use the country’s credit standing to insist that no spending cuts should even be countenanced and that able-bodied single adults should not have to find work as a condition of obtaining government benefits.Gail: The Republicans are attacking the status quo, not some new program the Democrats are trying to push through. And I’ve always been wary of the must-work stuff because all the paperwork, even in our technological era, makes it so easy for people to get cut off for no reason except bureaucratic confusion.Bret: The conservative in me hates subsidizing indolence, especially when jobs are abundant. Welfare should go to those who truly need it, not people who just can’t be bothered to work.Gail: Also, I think this must-work discussion has to begin with quality child care for every low-income family that needs it. Very bottom bottom line is that kids come first.About the budget — I guess Congress could just decide there just shouldn’t be a debt ceiling. After all, we went more than 125 years without one. Is that something you think they should rally around?Bret: The debt ceiling reminds me a bit of the Doomsday machine in Stanley Kubrick’s “Dr. Strangelove.” In theory, it’s supposed to encourage restraint and responsibility. In practice, it’s likely to destroy the world. I’d be interested to see the administration test the theory that the 14th Amendment, which says that the public debt of the United States “shall not be questioned,” makes the debt ceiling unconstitutional, although I doubt they could win that case in court.The other crisis, Gail, is happening at the southern border. Looking back, anything the administration might have done to avert it?Gail: Not gonna be silly enough to claim the Biden folks have been completely on top of the whole situation.Bret: Our awesome veep ….Gail: But it looks like we’ll finally be getting a lot of new federal workers to deal with the people who show up at the border.And the Biden administration is working on it. The Trump administration was totally useless on the problem.Bret: Not useless but definitely cruel. But what voters will remember is that under Trump, we didn’t have this scale of a crisis.Gail: Not sure the scale is really going to be that overwhelming as the year moves on. And I still have to note that I hate, really hate, your idea of finishing that wall.Bret: A wall won’t stop all illegal immigration. But it can help deter the most dangerous and reckless border crossings, which have left thousands of migrants dead. It should be part of an overall immigration compromise that includes automatic citizenship for Dreamers and more permissive rules for legal immigration through normal consular channels in the migrants’ home countries. Right now we have the worst of both worlds: a totally chaotic border that makes a bipartisan legislative compromise a political nonstarter.Gail: Bret, these people have a lot of reasons for coming — including seeking asylum from government oppression. But most of them are coming for jobs, and as you’ve always pointed out, our economy really needs the workers. In New York, we’ve gotten a ton of newcomers. They’re having a terrible time, particularly with housing, but employers, especially in the service industries, are desperate for their help. We just need to work out a system to make it possible.Bret: Sadly, as our news-side colleague Hannah Dreier chronicled last month, many recent border crossers are children working in conditions worthy of Dickens or Dreiser. Seeing mothers with young children strapped to their backs while hawking candies at traffic stops was something I was accustomed to in my hometown of Mexico City. It’s jarring to encounter them at road intersections and on subway platforms in New York City. If Biden doesn’t get a handle on this, it could cost him the election and lead to an ugly public backlash that will make Trump’s immigration policy seem tame.Speaking of subways, Gail, your thoughts on the killing of Jordan Neely?Gail: We’re talking about a former Michael Jackson impersonator who used to entertain subway passengers, but had deteriorated into a homeless man who was mentally ill and sometimes scary.Bret: Very scary. He was a person who had previously been arrested more than 30 times. He had punched an elderly woman in the face. He had exposed himself and peed inside of a subway car. He had walked out on a residential treatment program. There was a warrant for his arrest at the time of his death — but cops probably wouldn’t have found out about it because a group sued to stop the police from detaining people solely to check for arrest warrants. He was the sort of guy who makes the subway frightening for a lot of passengers, particularly women. People ought to know these facts before rushing to judgment.Gail: Neely was acting out and frightening people on the day he died. Daniel Penny, the former Marine who tackled him, was trying to stop an unnerving incident from happening. But he used chokehold force in a way that killed Neely.I can’t absolve Penny. But the big problem here is that the low-or-no-income mentally ill need more services than they’re getting in New York or pretty much anywhere.Bret: Obviously, I don’t support vigilantism. But that’s what you get when police are hampered from maintaining public order. The answer is to give the police the authorities and resources they need to deal with someone like Neely before a tragedy occurs.Gail, this is too grim a note on which to end — and we haven’t even touched on George Santos’s indictment.Gail: Now there’s a high note!Bret: Before we go, I want to put in a word for Sam Roberts’s obituary for Mike Pride, a former editor of The Concord Monitor, who died last month in Florida at 76, and whom we both knew through his stewardship of the Pulitzer Prizes. Mike showed that you can often make the greatest difference as a newsman by writing about issues that are near to people’s everyday lives. He reminded us that local journalism matters. And that it’s at least one thing that deserves to be made great again.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More