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      Bush Dynasty, Its Influence Fading, Pins Hopes on One Last Stand in Texas

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      ARGYLE, Texas — His famous name shadows George P. Bush, the only member of the dynastic political clan now in public office, as he enters the final days of an uphill campaign to unseat Texas’ attorney general.To some Texans, the Bush family name is a badge of integrity, harking back to a bygone era of rectitude and respectful political debate. To others, it is the disqualifying mark of a Republican old guard that failed the party and betrayed its last president, Donald J. Trump.Mr. Bush would like to make the campaign about the two-term Republican incumbent, Ken Paxton, whose serious legal troubles — including an indictment on securities fraud charges and a continuing federal corruption investigation — prompted high-profile Republicans to take him on in the primary. Mr. Bush made it to a runoff with Mr. Paxton that takes place on Tuesday.A few years ago, Mr. Bush, whose mother is from Mexico and whose father was the governor of Florida, might have won the race handily, his aides believe, and then been held up as a prominent example of a new, more diverse generation of Republicans.But that was before the ground shifted and his family spoke out publicly against Mr. Trump, in an unsuccessful effort to derail his bid for the presidency.Mr. Bush broke with his father (Jeb), his uncle (George W.) and his grandfather (George H.W.) and aligned himself with Mr. Trump and his followers. The effort to distance himself from his relatives was captured in a campaign beer koozie that his campaign handed out last year, quoting Mr. Trump: “This is the Bush that got it right. I like him,” it says, beneath a line drawing of Mr. Trump shaking Mr. Bush’s hand.The effort did not pay off. Mr. Trump endorsed Mr. Paxton, who had filed lawsuits seeking to overturn the 2020 election and had appeared with Mr. Trump at his rally in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, before members of the crowd stormed the Capitol.Mr. Bush, the Texas state land commissioner, bears a family name that evokes a pre-Trump style of Republican politics. Shelby Tauber for The New York TimesSome Texans say the political obituary has already been written for the Bush family, and see Mr. Bush, who is currently the state land commissioner, as its last flickering ember, with little of his forebears’ appeal.“Daddy Bush was wonderful, wonderful, wonderful,” Carolyn Lightfoot, a member of the Daughters of the Republic of Texas, said of Mr. Bush’s grandfather. But the organization has criticized George P. Bush’s moves as land commissioner over his handling of the Alamo in San Antonio. Ms. Lightfoot said the Bush family and the party establishment were “trying to stuff him down our throats because of his Latino heritage.”For all that the family’s importance may have faded among Texas Republicans, Mr. Bush may still emerge victorious in the runoff. A poll this month had Mr. Paxton’s support at less than 50 percent, and Mr. Bush trailing him by only a few percentage points. Donors have pumped new money into Mr. Bush’s campaign in the final stretch, hoping to push him over the top.Mr. Bush has tried to refine and target his attacks on Mr. Paxton in recent weeks, after his campaign’s internal polling suggested that earlier efforts were hurting his own standing along with Mr. Paxton’s. And Mr. Bush has proudly invoked his family, both in a closing-message political ad and while speaking to audiences that might be unimpressed with the Bush name.“It’s all about ethics,” Mr. Bush told a gathering of Republican women this month in Argyle, a town in the rapidly growing, largely Republican suburbs of Fort Worth. “When people say the last thing we need is another Bush, my response is, this is precisely the time that we need a Bush.”As he barnstorms the state, Mr. Bush, 46, is invariably asked about his relatives, told about some fond memory of them, or challenged to reiterate his loyalty to Mr. Trump.After the event in Argyle, a man in a cowboy hat waited outside for Mr. Bush to emerge so he could confront the candidate.“Would you support for president the Republican nominee, even if it is Trump in 2024?” the man asked.“Yeah, no, I would support him again,” Mr. Bush replied as he walked to his car, wearing black cowboy boots emblazoned with a White House seal and a reference to his uncle’s ranch in Crawford, Texas. “But we’ll see who comes out.”At one campaign stop after another, Mr. Bush is asked about his family or his support for Donald J. Trump.Shelby Tauber for The New York TimesAt a Republican club event in Houston, held down the road from an apartment George W. Bush used to occupy in an area George H.W. Bush used to represent in Congress, George P. Bush delivered a speech attacking Democrats and Mr. Paxton. He promised to strengthen the state’s border with Mexico and to address Houston’s rising murder rate. He opened the floor to questions, but got a comment to start.“I enjoyed watching you talk, because to me, you have all the mannerisms of Governor Bush,” a man told him, to laughter in the room. “Your hands are just like ‘Saturday Night Live.’”Another attendee also made reference to his family. “I’ve heard people say that they’re not going to vote for you because they’re tired of the Bush dynasty,” said Doug Smith, a club member, echoing the views of some in the room. “How do you respond to those people?”“I’ll never run away from being a Bush; I love my family,” he said. Most of the crowd applauded.To live in Texas is to be exposed to the ubiquity of the Bushes, whose family name is borne by airports, roads and schools from Houston to Dallas to Midland. Both Bush presidents have their presidential libraries in the state. In Houston, there are even dog parks named for the canine companions of George P. Bush’s grandmother Barbara Bush, who died in 2018.Exposed to a national spotlight from a young age, Mr. Bush has been hearing about his bright political future for decades. “The Republican convention is doubling as a dress rehearsal for a man Republicans talk about as an up-and-coming heir to the Bush legacy,” The Baltimore Sun wrote of him in 2000, referring to him as a “hunk” who could put “the passion in compassionate conservatism.”Mr. Bush, left, was seen as an up-and-comer in Republican circles in 2000. His uncle George W. Bush was governor of Texas and a candidate for president, and his father, Jeb Bush, was governor of Florida. Ozier Muhammad/The New York TimesBut that is not the message Republicans want to hear now, Texas political consultants, donors and observers said.“Everything was lining up to give him the brass ring, but the party changed too much,” said Brandon Rottinghaus, a professor of political science at the University of Houston. “The Republican base changed in such a fast way that many were left without a chair when the music stopped. Bush is a great example of that.”Jay Zeidman, a longtime friend of Mr. Bush’s, said he believed that those shifts masked a dissatisfaction with the direction the party had taken. “There’s a lack of political courage in this state right now because of Donald Trump,” he said. “I think Americans and Texans are thirsty for some reversion back to what politics used to be.”As he campaigns, Mr. Bush, who grew up in Florida, underscores his ties to Texas: Born in Houston, college at Rice University, a law career in the state. In an interview, Mr. Bush said he understood the legacy of his family as something Texan, as well as “quintessentially American and patriotic.”“My role is to close the wounds of the past,” Mr. Bush said. “What I focus on are areas that I can control, and not focus on the areas that I can’t control. Because that would be futile.”Mr. Bush has staked out hard-line positions that appeal to Republican primary voters on issues like the teaching of race and gender in schools. On immigration, he has urged Texas to formally invoke passages in the U.S. Constitution referring to “invasion,” a step toward the state seizing war powers and a move that Mr. Paxton and Gov. Greg Abbott have so far avoided making. He has said there was “fraud and irregularity” in the 2020 election, though he did not believe it changed the outcome.Ken Paxton, the Texas attorney general, faces Mr. Bush in a primary runoff on Tuesday.Cooper Neill for The New York TimesHe has challenged Mr. Paxton to debate him on issues, but the two have not shared a stage during the campaign. Mr. Bush contrasts his willingness to field questions from reporters and from a variety of audiences with Mr. Paxton’s practice of rarely holding news conferences or taking challenging questions.Mr. Paxton’s campaign declined a request for an interview.“Texas voters have made it clear that they are sick and tired of the Bush family dynasty and their RINO establishment donors playing kingmaker in Texas politics,” said Kimi Hubbard, a Paxton campaign spokeswoman, using an acronym meaning “Republican in name only.”Mr. Bush was careful in an interview with The New York Times not to question the shifts in the Republican Party that have made his run for office more difficult. He said the concerns of party voters were largely the same as when he first ran for land commissioner in the 2014 election: “Concerns on my family, concerns on crime, border security.”Have voters’ feelings about the Bush dynasty hurt him? “I wouldn’t say so,” he said. “I’ve won.”A significant number of Republicans polled in Texas say they would not support Mr. Bush because of his family background. But his lineage is not simply a liability.In this month’s poll by The Dallas Morning News and the University of Texas at Tyler, people planning to vote in the primary runoff for attorney general were asked what they liked about their chosen candidate. One of the top factors Mr. Paxton’s supporters mentioned was that he was not a Bush. But about the same share of Mr. Bush’s backers said they were drawn to him specifically because he was a Bush.Mr. Bush has drawn financial support from his family’s network, including six-figure checks from some longtime Bush supporters and more than $100,000 directly from his uncle George W. Bush, campaign finance records show.Mr. Bush fielded questions at a Republican gathering in Flower Mound.Shelby Tauber for The New York TimesA week before the runoff, outside an early voting location in his grandfather’s old congressional district in Houston, Mr. Bush’s family name loomed large for Republican voters, both for and against.“We support George P.,” said Julie Treadwell, 50, who had just voted with her 18-year-old daughter. “We want to get back to that,” she said of his family and what they represented to her: “Conservative Republicans that are more even-keel and levelheaded.”Darla Ryden, 59, who overheard Ms. Treadwell’s remarks, waited until she had walked away to her car before describing her own views, which she said were just the opposite.“I was all for George Bush, daddy and son, but now I feel, with the Bushes, it’s more about power than it is about people,” Ms. Ryden said. She voted for Mr. Paxton in the runoff and supported him in the first round of the primary as well, she said, despite “his own struggles.”“The Bushes?” she added. “It’s done.” More

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      Attack ads have fueled sharp ups and downs in the Alabama G.O.P. Senate race.

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      The three leaders of Alabama’s Republican Senate race have experienced giddy ascents and, in some cases, steep plunges, with the result that Representative Mo Brooks and two first-time candidates, Katie Britt and Mike Durant, enter Tuesday’s primary election tightly bunched together in recent polling. Unless one tops 50 percent, which seems unlikely, there will be a runoff between the top two.One factor driving the ups and downs in the race is a flood of attack ads from deep-pocketed outside groups aligned with the candidates, which have spent freely to drive up negative impressions of their rivals. When voters say they aren’t swayed by TV ads, Alabama is Exhibit 1 that that is not the case.Mr. Brooks, who jumped to a lead in the race last year and was endorsed by former President Donald J. Trump, was attacked by a super PAC that received $2 million from the Senate Leadership Fund, which is aligned with Senator Mitch McConnell. The Senate G.O.P. leader, who is often at odds with Mr. Trump for influence in the party, doesn’t want the hard-right Mr. Brooks to join his caucus next year.An attack ad paid for by the super PAC funded partly by the McConnell group dredged up old clips of Mr. Brooks — a leader of Mr. Trump’s crusade to reverse the 2020 election — disparaging him in 2016. “I don’t think you can trust Donald Trump with anything he says,” Mr. Brooks said then.During the time the ad was on the air, Mr. Brooks saw his support plunge to 16 percent in one poll. Shortly afterward, Mr. Trump withdrew his endorsement. Mr. Brooks has since regained a competitive footing, thanks in no small part to attack ads aimed at his two rivals.Mr. Durant, a retired Army pilot who figured in the 1993 “Black Hawk Down” episode in Somalia, appeared to lead the race in the spring. But lately he has faltered, after being raked over the coals by a group calling itself Alabama RINO PAC, which is funded in part by the McConnell-aligned group. One ad, quoting without context remarks that Mr. Durant once delivered at the U.S. Army War College, includes him saying, “The first thing that needs to be done is to disarm the population.”Another ad went after a supporter of Mr. Durant’s as “a top Never Trumper.”The money behind both the anti-Brooks and anti-Durant ads comes from supporters, in state and out, of Ms. Britt, a former chief of staff of Senator Richard C. Shelby, whose retirement has opened the seat.But Ms. Britt has hardly gotten off unscathed. The Club for Growth, the powerful anti-tax group based in Washington, which supports Mr. Brooks, is trying to undermine Ms. Britt. One ad says she is “really a lobbyist” because of a prior job leading a business group in Alabama; it goes on to quote a tweet from Donald Trump Jr. in 2021 — back when his father liked Mr. Brooks — calling her “the Alabama Liz Cheney.”Many of the attacks seemed to have landed with voters, but also apparently confused them. There is no clear leader in the latest polls. More

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      Primaries Show Limits, and Depths, of Trump’s Power Over G.O.P. Base

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      The tumultuous start to the Republican primary season, including a down-to-the-wire Senate race that divided conservatives in Pennsylvania on Tuesday, has shown how thoroughly Donald J. Trump has remade his party in his image — and the limits of his control over his creation.In each of the most contentious primary races this month — including two closely watched contests next week in Alabama and Georgia — nearly every candidate has run a campaign modeled on the former president’s. Their websites and advertisements are filled with his images. They promote his policies, and many repeat his false claims about election fraud in 2020.But Mr. Trump’s power over Republican voters has proved to be less commanding.Candidates endorsed by Mr. Trump lost governor’s races in Idaho and Nebraska, and a House race in North Carolina. In Senate contests in Ohio (where his pick won earlier this month) and Pennsylvania (which remained too close to call Wednesday morning), roughly 70 percent of Republicans voted against his endorsement. In contests next week, his chosen candidates for Georgia governor and Alabama senator are trailing in polls.Long known for being dialed into his voters, Mr. Trump increasingly appears to be chasing his supporters as much as marshaling them. Republican voters’ distrust of authority and appetite for hard-line politics — traits Mr. Trump once capitalized on — have worked against him. Some have come to see the president they elected to lead an insurgency as an establishment figure inside his own movement.Trumpism is ascendant in the Republican Party, with or without Mr. Trump, said Ken Spain, a Republican strategist and former National Republican Congressional Committee official.“The so-called MAGA movement is a bottom-up movement,” Mr. Spain said, “not one to be dictated from the top down.”The primaries aren’t the first time conservative voters in Mr. Trump’s red-capped constituency have demonstrated their independence from the patriarch of the Make America Great Again movement.In August, at one of Mr. Trump’s largest post-presidential campaign rallies, the crowd booed after he urged them to get vaccinated against Covid-19. In January, some of the most influential voices in Mr. Trump’s orbit openly criticized his pick for a House seat in Middle Tennessee, Morgan Ortagus — who had served in the Trump administration for two years as State Department spokeswoman but was deemed insufficiently MAGA.These mini-rebellions have tended to flare up whenever Mr. Trump’s supporters view his directives or endorsements as not Trumpy enough.“There’s no obvious heir apparent when it comes to America First — it’s still him,” said Kellyanne Conway, Mr. Trump’s 2016 campaign manager and White House counselor. “But people feel they can love him and intend to follow him into another presidential run — and not agree with all of his choices this year.”After the Pennsylvania and North Carolina PrimariesMay 17 was the biggest day so far in the 2022 midterm cycle. Here’s what we’ve learned.Trump’s Limits: The MAGA movement is dominating Republican primaries, but Donald J. Trump’s control over it may be slipping.‘Stop the Steal’ Endures: G.O.P. candidates who aggressively cast doubt on the 2020 election have fared best, while Democratic voters are pushing for change. Here are more takeaways.Trump Endorsements: Most of the candidates backed by the former president have prevailed. However, there are some noteworthy losses.Up Next: Closely watched races in Georgia and Alabama on May 24 will offer a clearer picture of Mr. Trump’s influence.Still, Republican candidates remain desperate to win Mr. Trump’s endorsement. In Georgia’s Senate race, Mr. Trump’s support for Herschel Walker kept serious rivals away. In some contested races, his endorsement has proved to be hugely influential, as it was in North Carolina’s Senate primary on Tuesday, where Representative Ted Budd cruised to victory against a former governor and a former congressman.But the emergence of an autonomous wing of the MAGA movement — one that is more uncompromising than Mr. Trump — has allowed even candidates without Mr. Trump’s endorsement to claim the mantle.“MAGA does not belong to President Trump,” Kathy Barnette said during a Pennsylvania Senate primary debate in April.The late surge from Ms. Barnette, who portrayed herself as a higher-octane version of Mr. Trump, eroded support for Dr. Mehmet Oz, the longtime television personality whom Mr. Trump endorsed, from conservatives who questioned his political credentials. As a result, Mr. Oz was running neck-and-neck with David McCormick, the hedge fund executive who had withstood a flurry of criticism from Mr. Trump. Still, Mr. Oz held about one-third of the vote.Republican Senate candidate Kathy Barnette at her election watch party Tuesday night in Elizabethtown, Pa. Ms. Barnette portrayed herself as a higher-octane version of Mr. Trump.Kriston Jae Bethel for The New York TimesOutside Ms. Barnette’s election night party on Tuesday, Diante Johnson, a Republican activist and the founder and president of the Black Conservative Federation, said she was proud of how the conservative author and commentator fought against the party powers that be.“The knife came to her and she didn’t back up,” Ms. Johnson said. “Every Trump establishment individual that came after her, she stood there and fought.”Ms. Barnette’s rise stunned Mr. Trump, who never considered the possibility of endorsing her candidacy, advisers said.But his base’s increasing autonomy should surprise no one.As president, Mr. Trump governed in a constant state of concern about tending to his supporters. Even though he was elected in part as a deal-making political outsider — he had spent much of his adult life toggling between political parties — he rarely made a significant decision without considering how his base would react.Those instincts prevented him from reaching a significant deal with Congress over immigration policy and fueled battles with Democratic leaders that led to repeated government shutdowns. His fear of appearing weak to his base voters drove his decision to not wear a mask in public for months into the pandemic.While Mr. Trump has indicated he is inclined to run for president for a third time in 2024, some advisers said the volatile and intensely fought primaries have risked alienating some of his supporters.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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      Here’s where Trump’s endorsement record stands so far.

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      Most of the candidates former President Donald J. Trump endorsed in contested Republican primaries have won in this early phase of the 2022 midterms. Many of those he backed were running unopposed or faced little-known, poorly funded opponents. There have been some noteworthy losses, however.Here is a look at Mr. Trump’s endorsement record in some of the most closely watched races.Doug Mastriano, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump just a few days ahead of the May 17 primary, won the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesA victory in Pennsylvania, and one key race was too close to callDoug Mastriano, a state senator and retired Army colonel who has propagated myriad false claims about the 2020 election and attended the protest leading up to the Capitol riot, won the Republican nomination for Pennsylvania governor. Mr. Trump endorsed him just a few days ahead of the May 17 primary. In the state’s critical Republican Senate primary, it is not yet known how Mr. Trump’s endorsement of Dr. Mehmet Oz will play out. The race between Dr. Oz and Dave McCormick was extremely tight and an official recount is likely. Kathy Barnette, who had a late surge in the race, was in a strong third place.Representative Ted Budd won the Republican nomination for Senate in North Carolina.Allison Lee Isley/The Winston-Salem Journal, via Associated PressTwo wins and a loss in North Carolina Representative Ted Budd, who was endorsed by Mr. Trump and the influential anti-tax group Club for Growth, won the Republican nomination for Senate, and Bo Hines, a 26-year-old political novice who enthralled Mr. Trump, was catapulted to victory in his Republican primary for a House seat outside Raleigh. But Representative Madison Cawthorn crumbled under the weight of repeated scandals and blunders. He was ousted in his May 17 primary, a stinging rejection of a Trump-endorsed candidate. Voters chose Chuck Edwards, a state senator, in the crowded primary.J.D. Vance won his competitive Republican primary for an Ohio Senate seat with the help of Mr. Trump’s endorsement.Maddie McGarvey for The New York TimesVictories in OhioThe Senate candidate J.D. Vance won his hard-fought primary over a field of well-funded candidates, nearly all of whom pitched themselves as Trump-like Republicans. Mr. Vance, an author and venture capitalist, had transformed himself from a self-described “never Trump guy” in 2016 to an “America First” candidate in 2022. His long-shot campaign financially benefited from heavy spending by his former boss Peter Thiel, a billionaire founder of PayPal.Max Miller, a former Trump aide who denied assault allegations from an ex-girlfriend and was later endorsed by Mr. Trump, won his House primary after two other Republican incumbents there opted not to run. Representative Anthony Gonzalez, who had voted to impeach Mr. Trump, retired after just two terms. Representative Bob Gibbs, a Trump supporter, dropped out after his district was redrawn late in the campaign, pitting him against Mr. Miller.Mr. Trump also endorsed Madison Gesiotto Gilbert, a lawyer and former beauty queen who had been a surrogate for his presidential campaign. She won a seven-way primary for an open congressional seat being vacated by Representative Tim Ryan, a Democrat running for Senate.Representative Alex Mooney of West Virginia, right, with Representative Kevin McCarthy of California, the House minority leader. Mr. Mooney prevailed in his primary over Representative David McKinley.Stefani Reynolds for The New York TimesA win in West VirginiaIn an incumbent-on-incumbent House primary, Representative Alex Mooney prevailed over Representative David McKinley in a newly drawn congressional district that largely overlaps with the one Mr. McKinley represented for more than a decade.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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      John Fetterman: ‘Unfussy and Plain-Spoken’

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      John Fetterman, the Democratic Senate nominee in Pennsylvania, isn’t like most politicians in his party.Only 38 percent of American adults have a bachelor’s degree. Yet college graduates have come to dominate the Democratic Party’s leadership and message in recent years.The shift has helped the party to win over many suburban professionals — and also helps explain its struggles with working-class voters, including some voters of color. On many social issues, today’s Democratic Party is more liberal than most Americans without a bachelor’s degree. The party also tends to nominate candidates who seem more comfortable at, say, Whole Foods than Wal-Mart.All of which makes John Fetterman such an intriguing politician.Last night, Fetterman — Pennsylvania’s lieutenant governor — comfortably won the state’s Democratic Senate primary, with 59 percent of the vote. Conor Lamb, a more traditional Democratic moderate, finished second.In the general election this fall, Fetterman will face either Mehmet Oz, a celebrity doctor endorsed by Donald Trump, or David McCormick, a former business executive. Their primary remains too close to call.The basic theory of Fetterman’s candidacy is that personality and authenticity matter at least as much as policy positions. On many issues, his stances are quite liberal. He has supported Bernie Sanders and taken progressive positions on Medicare, marijuana, criminal justice reform and L.G.B.T. rights. “If you get your jollies or you get your voters excited by bullying gay and trans kids, you know, it’s time for a new line of work,” Fetterman said at a recent campaign stop.He is also 6-foot-8, bearded and tattooed, and he doesn’t like to wear suits. “I think he is a visual representation of Pennsylvania,” one voter recently said.Fetterman is the former mayor of Braddock, a blue-collar town in western Pennsylvania where about 70 percent of residents are Black. He declined to move into the lieutenant governor’s mansion near Harrisburg and spends many nights at his home in Braddock. He talks about having been around guns for most of his life. And he does take some positions that clash with progressive orthodoxy, like his opposition to a fracking ban.Fetterman “does not sound like any other leading politician in recent memory,” my colleague Katie Glueck wrote from the campaign trail. Holly Otterbein of Politico called him “unfussy and plain-spoken” in contrast to “a party often seen as too elite.” One suburban voter in Pennsylvania — making the same point in a more skeptical way — told The Times, “I think sometimes he might come off as not a polished person.”To be clear, Fetterman may lose the general election. This year is shaping up as a difficult one for Democrats, and the Republican campaign will no doubt use his progressive positions to claim he is a leftist out of step with Pennsylvania’s voters. Republicans may also point out that Fetterman has a graduate degree from Harvard and that he pulled a gun on a jogger in Braddock during a disputed 2013 encounter.Still, I find Fetterman to be notable because Democrats have nominated so few candidates like him in recent years. The party is more likely to choose ideologically consistent candidates whose presentation resembles that of a law professor or think-tank employee. Fetterman, like many working-class voters, has a mix of political beliefs. On the campaign trail, he wears shorts and a hoodie.Describing his appeal to voters, Sarah Longwell, a Republican political strategist, said: “It’s not that he’s progressive that they like or don’t like. They like that he’s authentic.”Although the specifics are different, he shares some traits with Eric Adams, the mayor of New York, who comes off as “simultaneously progressive, moderate and conservative,” as the political scientist Christina Greer wrote in The Times. Adams won his election despite losing Manhattan, New York’s most highly educated, affluent borough.Fetterman also has some similarities with Senator Sherrod Brown, a populist Democrat who has managed to win in Ohio and who revels in “his less than glamorous image,” as Andrew J. Tobias of Cleveland.com has written.For years, most Democrats trying to figure out how to win over swing voters have taken a more technocratic approach than either Adams or Fetterman. Centrist Democrats have often urged the party to move to the center on almost every issue — even though most voters support a progressive economic agenda, such as higher taxes on the rich.Liberal Democrats have made the opposite mistake, confusing the progressive politics of college campuses and affluent suburbs with the actual politics of the country. Some liberals make the specific mistake of imagining that most Asian, Black and Latino voters are more liberal than they are. As a shorthand, the mistake is sometimes known as the Latinx problem (named for a term that most Latinos do not use).It remains unclear whether Fetterman represents a solution to the Democrats’ working-class problem. But the problem is real: It is a central reason that Democrats struggle so much outside the country’s large metro areas. And if Democrats hope to solve it, they will probably have a better chance if more of their candidates feel familiar to working-class voters.Politics isn’t only about policy positions. People also vote based on instinct and comfort.For more: In Times Opinion, Michael Sokolove asks whether Fetterman is the future of the Democratic Party.The latest resultsIn the primaries for Pennsylvania governor, Doug Mastriano — a far-right state senator endorsed by Trump — won the Republican nomination, while Josh Shapiro, the state attorney general, won the Democratic race. Mastriano’s victory caused The Cook Political Report to say that the general election was no longer a toss-up and Shapiro was favored to win.In North Carolina, Madison Cawthorn lost the Republican primary for his House seat. Cawthorn was endorsed by Trump, but had feuded with others in his party after a series of scandals.Representative Ted Budd, also backed by Trump, won North Carolina’s Republican Senate primary. 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She died at 63.ARTS AND IDEAS The music supervisor Randall Poster.Sinna Nasseri for The New York TimesA boxed set for birdsRandall Poster had never appreciated the songbirds of the Bronx, where he has lived for most of his life, until the quiet the pandemic brought in 2020. After speaking with an environmentalist friend, Poster — a music supervisor for filmmakers — was inspired. What if he harnessed his industry connections into a fund-raiser for bird conservation?This week, Poster will release the first volume of “For the Birds,” a star-studded, 242-track collection of original songs and readings based on birdsong. It benefits the National Audubon Society.“For the Birds” features electronic trance, fiddle tunes and field recordings. Alice Coltrane and Yoko Ono make appearances, and a song from Elvis Costello shares space with a Jonathan Franzen reading.“Of all the things we need to work harder to protect, birds, like music, speak to everyone,” said Anthony Albrecht, an Australian cellist who has led similar conservation efforts. “They’re such a visible — and audible — indicator of what we stand to lose.”PLAY, WATCH, EATWhat to CookDavid Malosh for The New York Times. Food Stylist: Simon Andrews.Use up seasonal produce by adding tangy rhubarb to sheet-pan chicken.What to WatchManuel Garcia-Rulfo plays the lead in Netflix’s “The Lincoln Lawyer.” It’s a tricky job when your first language isn’t English.What to ReadNell Zink’s “Avalon” is about a girl who has a menacing stepfamily and a great ambition.Late NightThe hosts celebrated Sweden and Finland’s NATO applications.Now Time to PlayThe pangram from yesterday’s Spelling Bee was backfill. Here is today’s puzzle — or you can play online.Here’s today’s Wordle. Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Blue hue (four letters).If you’re in the mood to play more, find all our games here.Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — DavidP.S. The Times covered the first same-sex marriages in Massachusetts on the front page 18 years ago today.Here’s today’s front page.“The Daily” is about a Ukrainian soldier. On “The Argument,” a debate about inflation.Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick, Tom Wright-Piersanti, Ashley Wu and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox. More

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      10 Republicans on President Trump’s Sway in Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania

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      The nostalgia was powerful, and came with a twist.In the latest Times Opinion focus group, 10 Republican voters in swing states wished for an America before 8 percent inflation, before high gas prices, before the Ukraine war. Wished for a leader they saw as strong, commanding, feared. Wished for a party that, in the words of one, “put America first again.”They wished, in other words, for a return of President Donald Trump.But here’s the twist: When asked if they felt it was extremely important to vote for someone this year who embraces Mr. Trump’s agenda, eight of the 10 Republicans raised their hands. A few seconds later, when asked if it was extremely important to vote for someone who has the same style and personality as Mr. Trump, no one raised a hand.Throughout the 90-minute discussion with these Republicans, from Georgia, Ohio and Pennsylvania — three states with big primaries for Senate and governor this month — Mr. Trump’s record looked only better to them in hindsight, especially without the distraction of his “mean tweets” or personal manner. One Georgia Republican who didn’t vote for Mr. Trump in 2020 even said he’d consider supporting the former president if he ran again in 2024. “I don’t like what I’m seeing, as far as the direction that the country is headed,” this Republican said.As for the influence of Mr. Trump’s endorsements in party primaries this month, it was most potent when voters didn’t already have strong attachments to candidates, as our focus group moderator, Kristen Soltis Anderson, noted. The Ohio and Pennsylvania Republicans were mostly taking their cues from Mr. Trump in their Senate primaries; by contrast, the Georgia Republicans were more inclined to buck Mr. Trump and stick with their incumbent Republican governor, Brian Kemp, whom the former president is trying to oust in next week’s primary.This is the 10th group in our series America in Focus, which seeks to hear and understand the views of cross-sections of Americans whose voices are often not heard in opinion journalism. We conducted the discussion with Ms. Anderson, who does similar work for political candidates, parties and special interest groups. (Times Opinion paid her for the work.) This transcript has been edited for length and clarity; an audio recording and a video clip of the session are also included. Participants provided their biographical details.Kristen Soltis Anderson: If you had to pick a word or phrase for what matters most to you in the upcoming elections, what would it be?Jennifer (38, white, Georgia): Inflation and gas prices. We have an R.V. that takes diesel, so it’s been really hurting at the gas pump.Raquel (29, Hispanic, Pennsylvania): Inflation. Education for our children. Just teach them math, science and reading, and we’ll do the rest at home.Kim (58, white, Ohio): Inflation and border control.Justin (38, white, Ohio): The economy.Kristen (49, white, Pennsylvania): Economy.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I want to ask you about leaders you admire. Who is an American leader during your lifetime who you admired?Robert (60, white, Ohio): Ronald Reagan. He brought about a good feeling in America after we had been through a complete disaster with Jimmy Carter. Carter’s a wonderful guy, but it was just a disaster for four years. With Reagan, it came back — the flag waving, the patriotism. People feared us once again.Brandon (32, Black, Georgia): Andrew Yang. He has an eye towards the future with A.I. and robots taking all the jobs.Kimberly (38, white, Georgia): I know Donald Trump’s pretty controversial. But I’ll take mean tweets all day when I can afford my groceries and my gas for my kids and my family.Jennifer: George W. Bush. When 9/11 happened, I was a senior in high school. He kind of brought the country back together. And I just think he’s an overall pretty cool guy, nice family man, just very respectable.10 Republican Voters in Swing States on Trump’s Hold on the PartyKristen Soltis Anderson: My next question pivots to things that you’re looking for in candidates. When you’re trying to decide what candidate to vote for, what are the characteristics, qualities, viewpoints you are most looking for?Sanjeev (48, Asian, Georgia): Transparency. And I’m getting sick and tired of these politicians who’ve been in office 40, 50 years who don’t seem like they’re doing anything.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I saw a lot of heads nod when you said that. Raquel?Raquel: Honesty. And I watched the Senate debate for Pennsylvania’s election and saw a lot of the candidates throwing shade at each other instead of really speaking up about you. Tell me what you’re going to do.Justin: I’m looking for someone more moderate, someone that’s willing to work with both sides.Robert: Somebody honest. Trustworthy. It would be nice to have somebody that isn’t a millionaire already and understands what it’s like to have to pick, scrape, somebody who understands what it’s really like to not be able to go out and buy exactly what you want when you want it. And somebody strong, who walks into the room and commands it.Casey (52, white, Pennsylvania): I just wish younger and stronger people would get involved and start accepting new ideas and collaborate with each other instead of bickering back and forth. Compromise. Get to the point and get it done. Keep America living.Patrick Healy: So all of you are voting in the Republican primary elections in Ohio, Pennsylvania and Georgia. How confident are you that the votes in the Republican primaries will be counted fairly and accurately? Raise your hand if you are confident in that.[Six raise their hands.]Patrick Healy: And how many are not confident? We’ve got Kristen and Raquel. Raquel, what’s your concern there?Raquel: With the last presidential election, I feel like there were a lot of things that happened that haven’t been brought to light just yet. I just moved to Pennsylvania from Florida, so I’m not sure what the laws are here. But we should have to bring your ID, to vote in person, because through the mail, I feel like that’s kind of iffy.Patrick Healy: Kristen, what would make you feel more confident that votes were being counted fairly and accurately?Kristen: I don’t know. I mean, I think up until the last election with Trump, I felt confident in elections. And I think the mail voting definitely had a big issue. That’s a big reason for my feelings that it’s not really secure.Kristen Soltis Anderson: All right. So, early this month there was a primary in Ohio. I want to focus on the Senate race. Who did you choose and why?Robert: I ended up voting for J.D. Vance. I was not going to. I really liked what Mike Gibbons had to say. But I ended up going with J.D. Vance primarily because President Trump endorsed him. I trust a lot of the things President Trump did. I thought, “If this man endorses J.D. Vance, even after he stood publicly and said he was a No Trumper and a Never Trumper and he couldn’t stand him, there’s got to be something there.”Kim: I also chose J.D. Vance. And it was because of President Trump.Justin: I did research. I chose Matt Dolan. He was more moderate. I voted for Trump the last two times. As a person, I don’t like him, but I do like more what he did for the economy. I want someone more moderate in office. I’m tired of extremes both ways.Kristen Soltis Anderson: In Georgia, your primary is coming up May 24. The big race is between Brian Kemp, the incumbent governor, and a variety of challengers. President Trump has had some criticisms of Governor Kemp, and he has endorsed one of the challengers, David Perdue. For those who plan to vote for Brian Kemp, tell me why.Kimberly: I did vote for him the last time, and I will vote for him again. I think he’s done a great job handling Georgia through Covid. He’s done a great job with our economy. I hate that our primary is going to be split probably between him and Perdue. I think that’s just going to hurt us in the long run. But we’ll see what happens.Brandon: Well I voted for Kemp last time. And I felt like he kept most of his campaign promises. And he didn’t let Trump bully him. He’s going to get my vote again for that reason.Sanjeev: It’s going to come down to Kemp and Perdue, but I don’t know yet. I’m going to have to think about it a lot more and do some research.Kristen Soltis Anderson: OK. Kimberly, when you mentioned the primary being really divided, tell me a little bit more about what you mean by that.Kimberly: I’m a Trump supporter. I voted for him. I like generally what he does. But I think sometimes he takes things to the extreme and sometimes he needs to just butt out of the states’ elections. I know that he’s a big Perdue fan, but I really do think that Kemp did a great job with our economy. He did not get bullied by Trump. Or he did, but he didn’t give in to him.Patrick Healy: President Trump did ask Brian Kemp and Secretary of State Raffensperger for help after the 2020 election. Kimberly, you’re a Trump supporter. How sympathetic were you to Trump in regard to asking for help from Kemp and others? Or did you think he was crossing a line?Kimberly: I think when he initially reached out, he wasn’t crossing a line. I do think as time went on and he took it more on a personal level, the name calling he does — I just want to roll my eyes. Golly, man, chill. I mean, I am a supporter of him, but let’s be honest, anybody that’s his supporter has rolled their eyes at him a time or two as well.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I had you down as a Perdue voter, Jennifer.Jennifer: Yeah. I wasn’t really sure. But the more I think about it, I’m probably going to go back with Kemp again. I voted for him to begin with. I think he’s done a pretty good job. I wasn’t a huge fan of how he handled a lot of the Covid stuff, but —Kristen Soltis Anderson: In what way?Jennifer: I understand you need to get businesses going. But I mean, there was still just a huge pandemic going. And I have family members that are immunocompromised, and it’s just like, are you really thinking about the health of others?Kristen Soltis Anderson: Pennsylvania has a Senate primary race on Tuesday. Former President Trump has endorsed Dr. Mehmet Oz. Who are you leaning towards at the moment?Kristen: I’m leaning towards Dr. Oz just because Trump endorses him. I voted for Trump twice. I don’t like him as a person, but I did like what he did when he was in office.Raquel: I’m going to vote for Kathy Barnette. She is pro-life, and that’s really important to me. That’s one of my No. 1 issues as to why I would vote for somebody. And she comes across as just the most genuine person. She’s a byproduct of rape. Her mom decided to keep her at a very young age. And it goes to show you can do it. You know what I mean? So I think it’s amazing.Casey: I’m leaning towards Oz because Trump’s backing him up.Patrick Healy: Kristen and Casey, do you think, if President Trump hadn’t endorsed Dr. Oz, that you would definitely still be voting for him?Kristen: I’m not sure. I mean, I like him on TV.Casey: I’d probably be open to more candidates.Patrick Healy: I’d love to see a show of hands of those of you who say it’s extremely important that a candidate do the following things. Raise your hand if it’s extremely important that a candidate show that they can work in a bipartisan way with Democrats.[Two raise their hands.]Patrick Healy: Next one is fight against the media — who says that’s an extremely important thing for a candidate to do?[One raises a hand.]Patrick Healy: Win over swing voters?[Five raise their hands.]Patrick Healy: Push to overturn Roe v. Wade?[Five raise their hands.]Patrick Healy: Support the same sort of agenda as Donald Trump?[Eight raise their hands.]Have the same style and personality as Donald Trump?[No one raises a hand.]Kim: I have something to say.Patrick Healy: Please.Kim: I want a strong person that is not going to take any crap. And sometimes you have to be blunt. You just have to because you have to stand up against whatever that’s not right. So I’m kind of like halfway hand for what you asked. I just wanted to explain why.Patrick Healy: Is there a candidate running who embodies Donald Trump’s agenda but not his personality?Kimberly: So Herschel Walker is running on the Republican ticket for Senate in Georgia. I think he follows really closely with Trump’s agenda. I haven’t seen the personality as much.Patrick Healy: To go back to those who said that it’s extremely important to you that the candidate support turning over Roe v. Wade, let’s talk about that.Raquel: I think life begins at conception. I used to get picked on at school, when we had debates in class, I was the odd one out for being pro-life. Even in college I used to get called names. I’m not going to repeat them, but it was really crazy how an ethics class — I’m the odd one out. So I think it’s time to stand strong in your belief. And if I’m pro-life, then that’s 100 percent.Patrick Healy: Is there anyone who has concerns about overturning Roe v. Wade?Justin: Personally I am pro-choice. And with that leak, it almost makes me want to, when the primaries come around, vote Democratic. I mean, I think it’s almost crazy that they’re going to overturn something that has been law for that long. It’s not my body. I have a mom, three sisters. I’m just pro-choice.Brandon: In my younger years, I was more pro-choice. But as I’ve gotten older, I’m more pro-life. I think it’s going to be one of those things that generations from now, you’re going to look back and it’s going to be one of those things that you can’t believe was ever legal.Kimberly: Since I was old enough to vote, a candidate’s stance on abortion has been a reason I will or will not vote for a candidate. So I’m very much pro-life. And I think that it will go back to the states, like it should.Patrick Healy: Kimberly, is that what you want to see — each state decides? Or would you ultimately like to see a national ban for all states on abortion?Kimberly: That’s a very slippery slope question. Because if I say I want there to be a ban on abortion for the entire United States, then if the Democrats have something that they want to ban, that would affect me. I choose to live in what until recently has been a very conservative state. I’m not moving to California because I know what goes on in California and I know their laws. I don’t want to be there. So I don’t want to say, “Well, they can’t have abortions in California.” Religiously, it’s a conviction of mine. I’m 100 percent pro-life. But I don’t want to say I would want to see a national ban, because it goes both ways: If we want to ban something, then we have to be OK when they want to ban something.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I want to bring the conversation back to Donald Trump. Show of hands — how many of you think it’s good that Donald Trump is making a lot of endorsements in different races right now?[Four raise their hands.]Robert: I think he’s looking for people that will support his agenda. And he knows that he is extremely popular in x number of states, Ohio being one of them. And I think J.D. Vance, he came from way behind and ended up winning. And he won pretty handily. And there’s only one thing I can attribute to it. I didn’t know Vance. I never read his book. But I thought, well, President Trump doesn’t usually put his name on anything that’s a losing battle.Kristen: All right.Robert: Trump said way back in 2016, you’re going to get tired of winning, winning, winning. We really did win, win, win with a lot of things. And I just can’t think of anything except to attribute it to him and his policies. And I’m thinking if we can just clone or mirror some of the things he did, just bit by bit, piece by piece in some of the states, maybe we can get back on the road to recovery and abolish some of this craziness, like a war on fossil fuels in Ohio.Kristen Soltis Anderson: There’s a presidential election on the horizon. A show of hands — how many of you would say Donald Trump should run for president in 2024?[Eight raise their hands.]Sanjeev: I liked his first term. Not everything he did, but for the most part, I liked him, so I’d like to vote for him again. He’s got that business world perspective that he brings.Kristen: I think people can see the difference now that he’s not in office and what’s going on. I think when he was in office, people were more focused on him not being very presidential. Now that he’s not in office and we see what is happening, you can see what he did. It’s clearer now.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I want to ask a slightly different question. If Donald Trump runs for president again and there are other Republicans who are also running for president, how many of you think you would probably choose Donald Trump over other Republicans in a primary race?[Seven raise their hands.]Kristen Soltis Anderson: It’s most of the same hands.Raquel: That’s a tough one because I am really hoping that DeSantis says he’s going to run for president. I really like him as a governor. I think it comes down to giving someone new a chance and seeing if they could work, too.Kimberly: You know Trump’s qualified. You know he can do it. Do we want to stick with somebody that we know is going to probably come in and get us back on track and help us, or do we say, “We’re going to give you a chance”? Do we gamble our future here?Justin: So I’m torn on if he should run. But I would definitely vote for him in the primary just because he’s pro-America, he’s more about the economy. I think if he would have won his election again, I don’t think Russia would have probably invaded Ukraine.Patrick Healy: Justin, a quick follow-up. You are interested in moderate politicians. You’re pro-choice. You mentioned some issues with Trump’s style. And yet you are drawn to him.Justin: So if I can explain it, I think he’s more about the economy. And that’s my No. 1 issue is the economy. Yes, I differ with a lot of people with being pro-choice, but the economy is my No. 1 thing.Kim: I would vote for him again. Like someone else said, you can see the difference with when he was president. Biden — it’s like night and day.Patrick Healy: Is there anyone in the group who did not vote for Donald Trump in 2020 but who would consider voting for him if he ran again in 2024?Brandon: Well I voted for a third party in 2020. So I think this time around, I’ve seen the things that are happening. And I don’t like what I’m seeing, as far as the direction that the country is headed. So, yes, I’m going to consider voting for him.Kristen Soltis Anderson: I want to ask about some other folks in the Republican Party who might consider running for president in 2024. I’m going to say a name. If you have heard of this person before, give me one word or phrase that comes to mind when you think about that person. We will start off with Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.Jennifer: I just kept hearing his name in regards of Covid and Florida being a hotbed and all that stuff.Sanjeev: The same things that Jennifer just mentioned. He was keeping pretty much everything open, and Covid was having big outbreaks. And so nationally he was getting a lot of negative press.Justin: Same. I remember during Covid he didn’t want to lock down. He wanted the state to stay open.Kimberly: Disney — I think that Disney got into the political field and thought they were going to just go on and say what they wanted to say. And I think it’s potentially going to bite them in the rear because he’s like, “OK, if you want to be political, we’ll be political.”Kristen Soltis Anderson: What do you think of when you think of former vice president Mike Pence?Robert: I think he’s an honest, God-fearing man that probably would do what’s right. Although I don’t know that he’s as firm as Trump, I think he’s an honest man.Kristen: I don’t think he’s as strong as Trump.Kim: I lost a lot of respect. I do like him being a Christian man, but he isn’t strong. He doesn’t have the backbone.Kristen Soltis Anderson: Thoughts about Chris Christie?Kristen: Yeah, don’t like him. I don’t think he’s honest. I think he’s for himself, not for the people, and he’s just a fool.Justin: With Christie and Mike Pence, I think they’re both career politicians. That’s someone that I don’t want in the office. I’d rather a businessman come to the office.Robert: I think he’s a powerful guy. And I think whatever he says, he’s going to do along the lines of Trump.Raquel: I feel like they’re just part of the same old politicians.Kristen Soltis Anderson: What do folks think about Texas Senator Ted Cruz in one word?Raquel: I donated money to him. He’s pro-life. And he’s on Instagram a lot speaking up against a lot of big money people.Justin: The first thing that came to mind was when he flew to Mexico and got caught during Covid. I think he was a hypocrite.Brandon: I think he would be my second choice. I hope that it would be between him and DeSantis.Kristen Soltis Anderson: And would DeSantis be your first choice in that matchup?Brandon: Yes, because DeSantis is a little bit stronger. And I feel like we need to regain our standing in the world.Kristen Soltis Anderson: Jennifer, any of these folks seem appealing to you?Jennifer: I guess the best one out of them would be Pence, I guess. Just because he was from the Trump time. But Cruz, I would say no. A little too religious for me mixing in with politics.Kristen Soltis Anderson: So my last question then to each of you is: If you had to give the Republican Party some advice, what would that advice be?Kimberly: I would say stop cowering to the Democrats all the time. Stand up. You have so many people in this country that support you. And maybe we’re just quieter. The media don’t talk about us. But you have a huge base. So stop cowering down to them and stop being intimidated by them. And if they want to play — I don’t want to say dirty games, but — let’s play the same games they play. Stop saying we’re going to take the high road all the time. No. Give it back to them. Say the truth.Kristen Soltis Anderson: Are there particular things that you think Republicans have cowered over when it comes to —Kimberly: Trump was really one of those people that was like, “I’m not taking anybody’s crap. And I’m going to give it right back to you. Maybe I tweet about you for 15 days and how much you suck. At least I’m tweeting, at least I’m saying something.”Kristen Soltis Anderson: Kristen, what would your advice be to the Republican Party?Kristen: Just get us back on track. Get the economy back on track and just put America first again.Kristen Soltis Anderson: Justin?Justin: The economy, bringing jobs back to America. In Ohio, in Columbus, in New Albany, we’re having that Intel plant come to Ohio. So I’d like to see those kind of things happen.Raquel: I think it would be to stand strong by your beliefs and stand up for yourself. Have a voice. Be mean if you have to be mean but stand true to your beliefs. Don’t cower to others just because you’re in a room with other people that don’t believe in the same thing you do.Kim: I would say Republicans need to unite. If they are united and had the backbone, we would be in a much better place right now.Robert: It’d be, get this economy back to where we’re in the plus side instead of the minus. And let’s get a constitutional amendment on term limits in every elected office in this country. It’s long overdue. I’m tired of seeing both D’s and R’s that are 80 years old standing there, can hardly even say two words together. And they’re supposed to be representing us. That wasn’t intended to be a career job. Serve your community, then go back home and do your thing at home.Brandon: Focus on healing the country, and let’s try to get away from everything being so partisan and so far left and so far right.Casey: Don’t beat around the bush. Just get to the point and stick your ground.Sanjeev: Stop fighting with each other and work together for the party and the greater good.Kristen Soltis Anderson: OK. Jennifer, last one’s to you.Jennifer: I would say definitely put the economy first. And maybe not talk about the social stuff as much and kind of be more moderate. Because a lot of things just seem really far right or really far left and just need a happy medium. We’re missing a happy medium.Patrick Healy is the deputy Opinion editor. Adrian J. Rivera is an editorial assistant in Opinion.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Republican ‘Chaos’ in Pennsylvania Threatens to Upend the Midterms

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      The G.O.P. thought it had 2022 all figured out. Then along came Kathy Barnette and Doug Mastriano.To a degree surpassing any other contest in the 2022 midterms so far, Donald Trump has poured his personal prestige into Pennsylvania’s Republican Senate primary race, which is going through a final spasm of uncertainty as Kathy Barnette, an insurgent candidate with a sparse résumé, gives a last-minute scare to Trump’s pick, Dr. Mehmet Oz.The outcome of that election, as well as the G.O.P. contest for governor, is threatening to implode the state’s Republican Party — with a blast radius that might be felt in states as far away as Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina over the coming weeks and months.The turbulence also has major implications for Trump’s hold on the party, which is growing more alarmed that the former president’s involvement in primaries could scupper Republicans’ chances of reclaiming the Senate despite President Biden’s unpopularity.Trump endorsed Oz, a celebrity physician, over the advice of many Republicans inside and outside Pennsylvania. The bill is coming due, those Republicans now say.Many of Trump’s own voters have expressed skepticism of Oz, who has fended off millions of dollars in negative advertising highlighting his past Republican heterodoxies on issues as varied as abortion and gun rights. As of Monday, Oz is leading by nearly three percentage points in the RealClearPolitics average of polls in the primary, which roughly matches the Oz campaign’s latest daily tracking poll, I’m told.It’s not clear how late-deciding Republicans will ultimately vote, although a new poll by Susquehanna University found that 45 percent of respondents who had made up their minds “in the last few days” were backing Barnette.A late endorsementOn Saturday, Trump finally endorsed Doug Mastriano, a conspiracy-theory-minded retired military officer who leads polls in the governor’s race, in an apparent attempt to hedge his bets.“He’s clearly upset that it’s not going his way,” said David Urban, a political operative and early Trump backer who led the former president’s efforts to win Pennsylvania in the 2016 election.Urban is supporting Dave McCormick, a fellow West Point graduate, in the Senate race, and said he had not spoken to Trump recently about the primary.The McCormick camp is hoping the fireworks between Barnette and Oz will earn him a second look from voters, who seem to be wavering between the three leading contenders.Understand the Pennsylvania Primary ElectionThe crucial swing state will hold its primary on May 17, with key races for a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship.Hard-Liners Gain: Republican voters appear to be rallying behind far-right candidates in two pivotal races, worrying both parties about what that could mean in November.G.O.P. Senate Race: Kathy Barnette, a conservative commentator, is making a surprise late surge against big-spending rivals, Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick.Democratic Senate Race: Representative Conor Lamb had all the makings of a front-runner, but John Fetterman, the state’s shorts-wearing lieutenant governor, is resonating with voters.Abortion Battleground: Pennsylvania is one of a handful of states where abortion access hangs in the balance with midterm elections this year.Electability Concerns: Starting with Pennsylvania, the coming weeks will offer a window into the mood of Democratic voters who are deeply worried about a challenging midterm campaign environment.Not everyone’s buying it.One veteran Republican operative in Pennsylvania who is not aligned with any Senate campaign likened McCormick to Hans Gruber, the villain in the movie “Die Hard,” who tries to fire upward at Bruce Willis’s character even as he is falling from the top of Nakatomi Plaza.Barnette has endorsed Mastriano and vice versa, and the two have held events together — almost as if they are running together as a kind of super-MAGA ticket. She has fended off questions about her background in recent days, including about her military service and her past Islamophobic comments.Kathy Barnette speaking at a campaign rally for Doug Mastriano, left.Michael M. Santiago/Getty ImagesOz, who if elected would become America’s first Muslim senator, called those comments “disqualifying” and “reprehensible” in an interview on Saturday with The Associated Press.In the governor’s race, Republicans aligned with the party establishment are desperate to stop Mastriano from winning the nomination, and have urged other candidates to unite around former Representative Lou Barletta, who is running for governor with the help of several former top Trump campaign aides.One of the first members of Congress to embrace Trump, former Representative Tom Marino of Pennsylvania, blasted the former president at a news conference this weekend for what he said was a lack of “loyalty” to Barletta.In a follow-up interview, Marino said he hadn’t been planning to endorse anyone in the race, but decided to back Barletta because he felt that Barletta had earned Trump’s support by risking his career to throw his lot in with Trump early in the 2016 campaign.“I did what I did because I was just so outraged” over Trump’s endorsement of Mastriano, Marino said. “Loyalty is important to me.”The wider fallout for 2022Watching the events in Pennsylvania, which included the leading candidate in the Democratic race for Senate, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, suffering a stroke on Friday, plugged-in observers in both parties used words like “gobsmacked” and “stunned.”“It’s just bang-bang crazy here,” said Christopher Nicholas, a Republican consultant based in Harrisburg.Recriminations are flying over why the Pennsylvania Republican Party failed to appreciate the rise of Barnette and Mastriano until it was too late to arrest their momentum. Ballots have already been printed, fueling despair among party insiders that the efforts to unify the party against one or both outsider candidates might ultimately prove futile.“The press paid very little attention to Barnette until the last two weeks,” said G. Terry Madonna, an expert on Pennsylvania politics who ran polling at Franklin and Marshall College for many years.National Democrats are watching the events in Pennsylvania closely, and many predicted that the results of Tuesday’s contests would affect other Republican primaries for Senate in the weeks to come.And while the public’s anger over inflation and supply-chain disruptions is weighing in the G.O.P.’s favor, Democrats hope to compete in the fall against candidates they perceive as easier to defeat, like Barnette.The greatest impact of Trump’s meddling might be felt in Arizona, where he has yet to issue an endorsement. Trump has slammed the establishment candidate, Attorney General Mark Brnovich, for failing to overturn Biden’s victory there in 2020, but has not yet chosen an alternative.David Bergstein, the communications director at the Democratic Senate campaign committee, said that Trump’s meddling in G.O.P. primaries was having an even greater effect on the Republican Party than many Democrats had anticipated. “Chaos begets chaos,” he said.What to readNicholas Confessore and Karen Yourish explain the origins of “replacement theory,” a once-fringe ideology that was espoused by the suspect in the Buffalo massacre on Saturday.Democrats are making a mockery of campaign finance laws through the use of “little red boxes,” Shane Goldmacher reports. And it’s all happening in plain sight.In North Carolina, Representative Ted Budd is proving the political potency of pairing endorsements from Donald Trump and the Club for Growth, Jazmine Ulloa and Michael Bender report.Jazmine just returned from North Carolina’s mountainous west, where she found strong opinions about Madison Cawthorn, the troubled first-term congressman facing a primary challenge. In Idaho, a feud between the state’s governor and its lieutenant governor is coloring the Republican Party as the far right seeks to take over the state. Mike Baker was there.Follow all of our live daily political coverage here.how they runFormer Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina is trailing in the polls as he seeks the Republican nomination for Senate in his state.Travis Long/The News & Observer, via Associated PressA new day for Pat McCrory When Gov. Pat McCrory of North Carolina signed legislation that critics called the “bathroom bill” in 2016, it set off a firestorm.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More

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      Ted Budd Thrives in G.O.P. Senate Race in North Carolina

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      HENDERSONVILLE, N.C. — Rick Griswold, a 74-year-old lifelong Republican, doesn’t know much about Ted Budd, the congressman he plans to support on Tuesday in the party’s Senate primary election. But he knows exactly why he’ll cast his ballot for Mr. Budd.“Trump endorsed him,” Mr. Griswold, an Army veteran, said as he collected tools at his part-time job at O’Reilly Auto Parts. “I like Trump.”The former president’s branded “complete and total endorsement” doesn’t guarantee victory in a Republican primary. However, operatives working in Senate campaigns this year said that playing up Donald J. Trump’s imprimatur is the single most effective message in intraparty battles.In North Carolina, Mr. Budd is proving the potency of pairing the former president’s endorsement with another from one of Mr. Trump’s on-again, off-again allies: the Club for Growth, an influential anti-tax group that has spent $32 million on federal races this year.That amount is twice as much as that by any other outside group — and much of that spending has been against candidates Mr. Trump has endorsed, according to campaign finance data compiled by Open Secrets.Mr. Trump has been furious about the Club for Growth’s campaigning against his picks. During a heated battle in the Ohio Senate primary, the group aired a TV spot of Mr. Trump’s choice in that race, J.D. Vance, criticizing the former president. Mr. Trump ordered an aide to text the group’s president, David McIntosh, telling him off in a vulgar message.“I thought that was very hostile,” Mr. Trump said in an interview about the club’s ad buy in Ohio. He added that the group’s endorsement record would improve if it stopped opposing some of his picks.Understand the Pennsylvania Primary ElectionThe crucial swing state will hold its primary on May 17, with key races for a U.S. Senate seat and the governorship.Hard-Liners Gain: Republican voters appear to be rallying behind far-right candidates in two pivotal races, worrying both parties about what that could mean in November.G.O.P. Senate Race: Kathy Barnette, a conservative commentator, is making a surprise late surge against big-spending rivals, Dr. Mehmet Oz and David McCormick.Democratic Senate Race: Representative Conor Lamb had all the makings of a front-runner, but John Fetterman, the state’s shorts-wearing lieutenant governor, is resonating with voters.Abortion Battleground: Pennsylvania is one of a handful of states where abortion access hangs in the balance with midterm elections this year.Electability Concerns: Starting with Pennsylvania, the coming weeks will offer a window into the mood of Democratic voters who are deeply worried about a challenging midterm campaign environment.Mr. McIntosh, meanwhile, has said privately that he hoped the group’s recent endorsement of Kathy Barnette in Pennsylvania would help exact some revenge on Mr. Trump, according to people with knowledge of the conversations.Joe Kildea, a Club for Growth spokesman, said that “David has never expressed these sentiments.” “The only reason Club for Growth PAC endorsed is because Barnette is the only real conservative in the race,” Mr. Kildea said.But in North Carolina, Mr. Budd was battling former Gov. Pat McCrory and former Representative Mark Walker after Mr. Trump announced his endorsement in June. Mr. Budd appeared to separate from the pack, helped by an $11 million advertising campaign from the Club for Growth mostly revolving around the former president’s endorsement. The group’s most-watched TV spot of the race was footage of Mr. Trump’s announcement of his endorsement of Mr. Budd.Last week, Mr. Budd was 27 percentage points ahead of the rest of the field, according to a poll from Emerson College, The Hill and WNCN-TV, the CBS affiliate in the Research Triangle of North Carolina. The Club for Growth has also curtailed its spending on the race, signaling its calculation that Mr. Budd is safely ahead.The winner of the state’s Republican Senate primary will head into the November general election with a distinct advantage over the Democratic nominee, who polls indicate will be Cheri Beasley, a former State Supreme Court justice. Republicans have won the last four North Carolina Senate races and the past three presidential contests in the state.Doug Heye, a Republican who has worked on three North Carolina Senate campaigns, said Mr. Budd was a strong but relatively unknown candidate across the state. His rise, Mr. Heye noted, showed the power of a well-funded, Trump-endorsed primary campaign.“It’s not surprising Budd is emerging,” he said. “But these margins look pretty big, especially considering he’s running against a former governor and a former congressman.”Mr. McCrory disputed the polling and criticized the Club for Growth, a 23-year-old conservative outfit he described as a political gun-for-hire that had strayed from its original mission of promoting low-tax, limited-government policy.“The Club for Growth is trying to buy the North Carolina Senate race,” Mr. McCrory said. “And we’re trying to do everything we can to stop them.”Mr. Budd, 50, promoted himself as a gun shop owner during his first congressional campaign in 2016. He had been involved in several businesses after divesting in 2003 from the Budd Group, a company started by his father that provides janitorial, landscaping and other corporate facility maintenance, a spokesman said.This year, Mr. Budd has mostly kept his head down. He has visited all 100 counties during the campaign, which his team said was a factor behind Mr. Budd’s skipping all four Republican primary debates.“We’ve been focused on the fundamentals, like getting organized in all 100 counties,” said Jonathan Felts, a senior adviser to Mr. Budd.Understand the 2022 Midterm ElectionsCard 1 of 6Why are these midterms so important? More