More stories

  • in

    Trump Has Put an End to an Era. The Future Is Up for Grabs.

    Kamala Harris lost the presidential election, but one of her campaign slogans was vindicated in defeat. “We’re not going back!” the Democratic nominee insisted on the campaign trail, and she was unintentionally correct: Donald Trump’s return to power is proof that we have lived through a real turning point in history, an irrevocable shift from one era to the next.In Trump’s first term, he did not look like a historically transformative president. His victory was narrow, he lacked real majority support, he was swiftly unpopular and stymied and harassed.Even if his 2016 upset proved that discontent with the official consensus of the Western world ran unexpectedly deep, the way he governed made it easy to regard his presidency as accidental and aberrant — a break from a “normal” world of politics that some set of authority figures could successfully reimpose.Much of the opposition to his presidency was organized around this hope, and the election of Joe Biden seemed like vindication: Here was the restoration, the return of the grown-ups, normality restored.But somewhere in this drama, probably somewhere between the first reports of a deadly flu in Wuhan, China, and Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, one of history’s wheels turned irrevocably, and the normal that Trump’s opponents aspired to recover slipped definitively into the past.A restoration? No: The post-Cold War era has ended, and we’re not going back.This may sound a bit like the most alarmist interpretations of the Trump era — that we are exiting the liberal democratic age and entering an autocratic, or at least authoritarian, American future.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Gaza War Strains Europe’s Efforts at Social Cohesion

    Institutions meant to promote civility, from soccer to song, have come under severe stress from rising antisemitism and anti-immigrant politics.The various institutions of postwar Europe were intended to keep the peace, bring warring peoples together and build a sense of continental attachment and even loyalty. From the growth of the European Union itself to other, softer organizations, dealing with culture or sports, the hope has always been to keep national passions within safe, larger limits.But growing antisemitism, increased migration and more extremist, anti-immigrant parties have led to backlash and divisions rather than comity. The long war in Gaza has only exacerbated these conflicts and their intensity, especially among young Muslims and others who feel outraged by Israeli bombings and by the tens of thousands of deaths in Gaza, a large proportion of them women and children.Those tensions were on full display in the recent violence surrounding a soccer match between an Israeli and a Dutch team in Amsterdam, where the authorities are investigating what they call antisemitic attacks on Israeli fans, as well as incendiary actions by both sides. Amsterdam is far from the only example of the divisions in Europe over the Gaza war and of the challenges they present to European governments.The normally amusing Eurovision Song Contest, which was held this year in Malmo, Sweden, a city with a significant Muslim population, was marred by pro-Palestinian protests against Eden Golan, a contestant from Israel, which participates as a full member.The original lyrics to her song, “October Rain,” in commemoration of the 1,200 Israelis who died from the Hamas-led attack on Oct. 7, which prompted Israel’s response in Gaza, were rejected by organizers for their political nature, so were altered to be less specific. Her performance was met with booing and jeering from some in the audience, but she did receive a wave of votes from online spectators, pushing her to fifth place.It was hardly the demonstration of togetherness in art and silliness that organizers have always intended.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Blinken Visits NATO Headquarters

    The U.S. secretary of state met with European allies rattled by the American election results at a critical moment for Ukraine and the alliance.Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken visited NATO headquarters in Brussels on Wednesday at what he called a “critical moment” for Ukraine and the U.S.-led military alliance, as Europe braces for the anticipated upheaval of a new Trump era in Washington.In a trip organized only after last week’s presidential election results made clear that U.S. policy will likely swing dramatically away from President Biden’s lock step support for NATO and Ukraine, Mr. Blinken met with alliance and European officials to help plan for a post-Biden future.Donald J. Trump’s return to the White House in January has deeply shaken Europe’s mainstream political leaders, thanks to his skepticism about the value of NATO, the cost of defending Ukraine, and the wisdom of isolating Russia and its president, Vladimir V. Putin.Once in office, Mr. Trump could move quickly to change U.S. policy on all three fronts — a shift that European leaders fear might leave their countries both less secure from Russian aggression and at an economic disadvantage.Mr. Blinken did not explicitly mention Mr. Trump or last week’s election in his public remarks after meetings at NATO headquarters. But an American leadership change with huge global import was the obvious subtext, as Mr. Blinken stressed the intrinsic value of the alliance.Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, addressed the elephant in the room before sitting down with Mr. Blinken at a Brussels hotel. He said that their meeting offered “an opportunity to coordinate steps” after the U.S. election, noting that Ukraine’s government was speaking “both with the president-elect and his team and also with the outgoing administration.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    Archive, 1922: US isolation and its impact on Europe

    During the 1920 US presidential election, Warren G Harding campaigned with the slogan “return to normalcy” – a return to how things were before the first world war. This included deregulation and isolationism. He won with a decisive victory and in 1922 introduced the Fordney-McCumber Tariff, a law that raised American tariffs on many imported goods.America and EuropeFrom our New York correspondent
    7 June 1922Most internationally minded American observers who were at Genoa or have been following recent events from Europe earnestly desire greater American participation in European affairs. Many thoughtful English liberals agree with them. But, curiously enough, many in America who share their hope that the United States may soon appreciate and bear her share of the world’s burdens and problems believe that participation by the American government in European conferences would at this time be futile and perhaps dangerous.Mr Hughes is a man of principle, but Mr Harding is a man of expediency. There is no doubt that the administration would like to take a larger part in European affairs; there is no doubt that the financial interests, to which it lends an attentive ear, are of the same mind; and there is also no doubt whatever that financial interest to which it lends and attentive ear, are of the same mind; and there is also no doubt whatever that the mass of American sentiment is steadfastly against it. The huge majority by which Mr Harding defeated the Democratic candidate in the autumn of 1920 was in large part a reaction against Mr Wilson’s entanglement in transatlantic politics.In so far as recent byelections and primary elections can be interpreted as bearing upon foreign policy they show a clear sympathy with the “irreconcilables” who kept the United States out of the League. The Administration, which shifts its domestic policy after every vote in an effort to please the country, would be even more incapable of a clearcut foreign policy.On the Russian question of course the United States has a policy – as intransigent as that of France. Mr Hughes and Mr Hoover, the two strong men of the Cabinet.A prejudice analysed
    The popular prejudice against participation in European affairs is often misinterpreted in Europe. It is, in part, of course, merely content with the relative prosperity in America, a selfish unwillingness to bother about a sick continent so far away. But it is vastly more than that. The figures of private donations for relief in Northern France, in Germany, in Austria, in Russia – which mounted into the tens of millions last year and continue mounting – are one proof of that. To anyone in touch with the pulse of American life it is plain that the main reason for the hesitation to plunge into Europe is a kind of bewildered disappointment at the results of America’s last plunge. There is no confidence in America’s diplomatic wisdom. The ordinary American farmer has two strong convictions – first, that the Europeans are making a mess of things; and, second, that the Americans, while they were in Europe, helped to make the mess worse. He would like to help, but he is unwilling to sign more blank cheques. He is confused; the issue is not clear, and until it is he thinks it safer to keep out. Where Wilson failed, he argues, what reason is there to believe that Harding and Hughes would succeed?There were during the Genoa Conference, when Europe seemed to be doing things on its own account, that American feeling was changing. The disappointing result at Genoa was tragic in its effect upon America. It did help still further to destroy the myth of a romantic France that could do no wrong; but tended to make the country still less disposed to mix in European problems. Yet other factors are at work. The discussion of the tariff, in which the New York banks that give the tone to financial opinion throughout the country are almost unanimously arguing for Free Trade, is very salutary indeed.The Genoa despatches of Mr Keynes and of Mr Frank Vanderlip, the former president of the National City Bank, attracted widespread comment and had a profound educative effect. But the bewildered apathy remains, and while it remains useful American participation in European affairs will be confined to the action of individuals such as Mr Morgan and Mr Vanderlip. It will take some striking event to galvanise American opinion. If the French should undertake independent military action they would certainly be unanimously condemned in this country; such an act might well give the Administration the popular support it requires for an effective return to the councils of Europe.The US tariff billBy FW Hirst
    24 June 1922Under the proposed Fordney-McCumber Tariff Bill, which the Republican leaders hope to get through this summer, the United States tariff will make import duties on clothing, boots, and most of our staple manufactures almost prohibitive. To quote one paragraph from a very careful analysis by the New York World which lies before me:
    Importations would be placed under a virtual embargo, thereby blocking Europe’s only means of paying off her war debt of more than eleven thousand million dollars to the United States. The economically unhealthy gold surplus would remain in this country – over 40 per-cent of the world’s gold supply is now in Federal Revenue bank vaults –instead of flowing back to normal channels and stabilising exchanges.
    The World declares that the agents of the big industrial monopolies have lobbied at Washington with more success than ever before.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionEditorial: America’s new tariff22 September 1922View image in fullscreenPresident Harding has at last signed the new United States Tariff Bill. The Bill, as is well known, conforms to the Republican tradition of high protection, but carries it to a higher power than has ever before been attempted, and considerably higher, one suspects, than most Americans like. How, in that case, it has managed to survive a sustained fire of criticism and is finally to become law on the eve of the congressional elections is a little obscure. As a vote-catching device nothing could have been more unfortunately conceived, and the Democrats are doubtless surprised and delighted to have a weapon with so sharp an edge put into their hands. Their chances at the November elections are now brighter, even though their victory could not immediately enable them to repeal the new tariff.The Bill has been much pulled about during the year it has been under discussion, but in its final shape it is still the most extreme measure of Protection ever passed in an industrial State. It is hardly conceivable that it should last long, and already there are signs of reaction from the frenzied Protectionism in which it had its birth after the sensational collapse in prices and restriction of credit in 1920. It has been carried partly because the Republican party was committed to it, partly because the farmers had to be bribed with heavy duties on all kinds of agricultural produce, and partly because, in spite of a general feeling that the general level of duties was extravagantly high, no trade could be induced to admit that it really needed anything less than prohibition. The Bill, once it was introduced, was carried more by its own momentum than by any active belief in its all-round virtues. It has been carried against much public criticism, and may be followed, like the similar Payne-Aldrich Tariff of 1909, by Democratic successes at the polls. But, whatever its effects upon the internal politics of America may be, it will probably remain for a year or two as the expression of American tariff policy, and will have far reaching effects upon the trade of America with the rest of the world.From a European point of view the Fordney-McCumber tariff is without any redeeming feature. It fits in only too well with the American policy of self-isolation. This is a policy which can be perfectly well understood even on this side of the Atlantic. If it were practicable there are many who would like to adopt it for England. But even if it were morally defensible to say that the Continent’s troubles are no concern of ours, and that we need not incur the odium and expense of mixing ourselves up in them, it is manifest to everybody that in point of fact that Europe’s troubles are very much our affair and that isolation would be the most dangerous and costly policy of all.In America there is the same inducement to cut clear of a continent which looks like falling to pieces and much less obvious reason why isolation even for her, is impracticable. At least the United States would not starve, as most people in England would, if the whole of her foreign trade were cut off. But though she would not starve she would be a good deal poorer, and she could not profess indifference even to the loss of her trade with Europe, which still takes over half of her total exports and used to take more than that. How much of America’s foreign trade will be destroyed by the new tariff cannot be foreseen. Many of the new duties are described as prohibitive, and a good many more will become so if the President exercises his arbitrary powers of increasing them.(All articles are edited extracts). More

  • in

    Surprising alliance of Donald Trump, Viktor Orban and Pope Francis that could derail support for Ukraine

    Your support helps us to tell the storyFrom reproductive rights to climate change to Big Tech, The Independent is on the ground when the story is developing. Whether it’s investigating the financials of Elon Musk’s pro-Trump PAC or producing our latest documentary, ‘The A Word’, which shines a light on the American women fighting for reproductive rights, we know how important it is to parse out the facts from the messaging.At such a critical moment in US history, we need reporters on the ground. Your donation allows us to keep sending journalists to speak to both sides of the story.The Independent is trusted by Americans across the entire political spectrum. And unlike many other quality news outlets, we choose not to lock Americans out of our reporting and analysis with paywalls. We believe quality journalism should be available to everyone, paid for by those who can afford it.Your support makes all the difference.CloseRead moreCloseA surprising trinity of Donald Trump, Hungary’s right-wing prime minister Viktor Orban and Pope Francis could spell the end to hopes for continued support for Ukraine in fighting the war against Vladimir Putin’s Russia.The Independent has spoken to Hungary’s ambassador to the Vatican, Eduard Habsburg-Lothringen, who has been critical in attempting to create an international coalition to find a so-called “peace deal” to end the war.He has spoken about how Pope Francis has played an important role in supporting a deal which will probably see Mr Trump push for Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to cede territory to Russia. It comes as Sir Keir Starmer held talks in Paris with French president Emmanuel Macron on Monday. Ukraine and the need for a European security pact as part of a post-Brexit reset was at the top of the agenda as the leaders vowed to ensure support for Kyiv continued.Pope Francis stands with President Donald Trump on Ukraine More

  • in

    Trump Should Not Let Putin Claim Victory in Ukraine, Says NATO Official

    Adm. Rob Bauer warned against any peace deal that was too favorable to Russia, arguing that it could undermine American interests.A senior NATO military official suggested on Saturday that any peace deal negotiated by President-elect Donald J. Trump that allowed President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia to claim victory in Ukraine would undermine the interests of the United States.In a wide-ranging interview on the sidelines of a European defense summit in Prague, Adm. Rob Bauer, the Dutch chairman of NATO’s Military Committee, said: “If you allow a nation like Russia to win, to come out of this as the victor, then what does it mean for other autocratic states in the world where the U.S. has also interests?”He added: “It’s important enough to talk about Ukraine on its own, but there is more at stake than just Ukraine.”Mr. Trump has said repeatedly that he could end the war in Ukraine in a day, without saying how. A settlement outlined by Vice President-elect JD Vance in September echoes what people close to the Kremlin say Mr. Putin wants: allowing Russia to keep the territory it has captured and guaranteeing that Ukraine will not join NATO.A spokeswoman for Mr. Trump’s transition team, Karoline Leavitt, said he was re-elected because the American people “trust him to lead our country and restore peace through strength around the world.”“When he returns to the White House, he will take the necessary actions to do just that,” Ms. Leavitt said on Saturday.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    The Long Global Trail of Resentment Behind Trump’s Resurrection

    As the Cold War wound down almost four decades ago, a top adviser to the reformist Soviet leader, Mikhail S. Gorbachev, warned the West that “we are going to do the most terrible thing to you. We are going to deprive you of an enemy.”In the celebrations of the triumph of Western liberal democracy, of free trade and open societies, few considered how disorienting the end of a binary world of good and evil would be.But when the spread of democracy in newly freed societies looked more like the spread of divisive global capitalism, when social fracture grew and shared truth died, when hope collapsed in the communities technology left behind, a yearning for the certainties of the providential authoritarian leader set in.“In the absence of a shared reality, or shared facts, or a shared threat, reason had no weight beside emotion,” said Nicole Bacharan, a French political scientist. “And so a dislocated world of danger has produced a hunger for the strongman.”A different Russia, briefly imagined as a partner of the West, eventually became an enemy once more. But by the time it invaded Ukraine in 2022, disillusionment with Western liberalism had gone so far that President Vladimir V. Putin’s tirades against the supposed decadence of the West enjoyed wide support among far-right nationalist movements across Europe, in the United States and elsewhere. Western allies stood firm in defense of Ukrainian democracy, but even that commitment is wobbling.The curious resurrection and resounding victory of Donald J. Trump amounted to the apotheosis of a long-gathering revolt against the established order. No warning of the fragility of democracy or freedom, no allusion to 20th-century cataclysm or Mr. Trump’s attraction to dictators, could hold back the tide.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

  • in

    US diplomats brace as Trump plans foreign policy shake-up in wider purge of government

    The US foreign policy establishment is set for one of the biggest shake-ups in years as Donald Trump has vowed to both revamp US policy abroad and to root out the so-called “deep state” by firing thousands of government workers – including those among the ranks of America’s diplomatic corps.Trump’s electoral victory is also likely to push the Biden administration to speed up efforts to support Ukraine before Trump can cut off military aid, hamper the already-modest efforts to restrain Israel’s Benjamin Netanyahu in Gaza and Lebanon and lead to a fresh effort to slash and burn through major parts of US bureaucracy including the state department.Trump backers have said he will be more organised during his second term, often dubbed “Trump 2.0”, and on the day after election day US media reported that Trump had already chosen Brian Hook, a hawkish State Department official during the first Trump administration, to lead the transition for America’s diplomats.And yet analysts, serving and former US diplomats and foreign officials said that it remained difficult to separate Trump’s bluster from his actual plans when he takes power in January. What is clear is that his priority is to bin many of the policies put in place by his predecessor.“I’m skeptical that the transition process will be super-impactful since the natural instinct of the new team will be to toss all of Biden’s foreign policy in the dumpster,” one former senior diplomat said.“If you go back to 2016, Mexico didn’t pay for the wall. And, you know, it doesn’t look like there was a secret plan to defeat Isis,” said Richard Fontaine, the CEO of the Center for a New American Security thinktank. “Some of these things didn’t turn out the way that they were talked about on that campaign trail and we go into this without really knowing what the president’s proposal will be for all of this – and what he will do.”One clear priority, however, is to target many of those involved in crafting US foreign policy as part of a broader purge of the US government.Trump has vowed to revive Schedule F, a designation that would strip tens of thousands of federal employees of their protections as civil servants and define them instead as political appointees, giving Trump immense powers to fire “rogue bureaucrats”, as he called them in a campaign statement.Within the State Department, there are concerns that Trump could target the bureaus that focus specifically on issues that he has attacked during his reelection campaign such as immigration. In particular, he could slash entire bureaus of the State Department, including the bureau of population, refugees and migration (PRM, which resettled 125,000 refugees to the US in 2022 alone), as well as the bureau of democracy, human rights and labor, which has focused on the violation of the rights of Palestinians by Israel.Project 2025, a policy memo released by the conservative Heritage Foundation, suggested that Trump would merely reassign PRM to shift resources to “challenges stemming from the current immigration situation until the crisis can be contained” and said it would demand “indefinite curtailment of the number of USRAP [United States refugee admissions program] refugee admissions”.But the blueprint, authored by Kiron Skinner, a former director of policy planning at the State Department during the first Trump administration, went further, suggesting that Trump could simply freeze the agency’s work for a complete reevaluation of its earlier policy.“Before inauguration, the president-elect’s department transition team should assess every aspect of State Department negotiations and funding commitments,” a section of the memo said. After inauguration, Skinner wrote, the secretary of state should “order an immediate freeze on all efforts to implement unratified treaties and international agreements, allocation of resources, foreign assistance disbursements, domestic and international contracts and payments, hiring and recruiting decisions, etc” pending a review by a political appointee.“Everyone is bracing [themselves],” said one diplomat stationed abroad. “Some [diplomats] may choose to leave before he even arrives.”Trump has also vowed to “overhaul federal departments and agencies, firing all of the corrupt actors in our national security and intelligence apparatus”.As Joe Biden enters his lame duck period, the administration will focus on trying to push through $6bn in aid that has already been approved for Ukraine, as well as exerting whatever leverage remains in his administration to find an unlikely ceasefire in Gaza.At the same time, they will have to calm a nervous world waiting to see what Trump has planned for his second term.“I think they’re going to do everything they can to make the case that the United States needs to continue to aid Ukraine, and they’ll have to spend a lot of time, I’m sure, dealing with nervous Ukrainians and nervous Europeans,” said Fontaine. At an upcoming G20 summit in Rio, the current administration was “going to try to reassure the rest of the world that a lot of the things that they have done over the past four years are going to stick into the future rather than just be kind of undone”.“And,” he added, “we’ll see what the reaction to that is.” More