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      Trump apuesta a que EE. UU. tolerará una recesión a fin de revivir la industria manufacturera

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      El presidente ofrece razones para imponer aranceles, como los ingresos, la influencia sobre los competidores y la creación de empleo. Pero el pasado sugiere una historia más compleja.Las guerras comerciales simultáneas del presidente Donald Trump con Canadá, México, China y la Unión Europea equivalen a una enorme apuesta económica y política: que los estadounidenses soporten meses o años de penuria económica a cambio de la lejana esperanza de reindustrializar el corazón de Estados Unidos.Es enormemente arriesgado. En los últimos días, Trump ha reconocido, a pesar de todas sus seguras predicciones de campaña de que “vamos a tener un auge como nunca antes hemos tenido”, que Estados Unidos puede dirigirse hacia una recesión, impulsada por su programa económico. Pero, en público y en privado, ha estado argumentando que “una ligera perturbación” en la economía y los mercados es un pequeño precio a pagar por traer de vuelta a Estados Unidos los puestos de trabajo en la industria manufacturera.Sus socios políticos más cercanos están redoblando la estrategia. “La política económica del presidente Trump es sencilla”, escribió el vicepresidente JD Vance en las redes sociales el lunes. “Si inviertes y creas empleo en Estados Unidos, serás recompensado. Reduciremos las normativas y los impuestos. Pero si construyes fuera de Estados Unidos, estarás solo”.La última vez que Trump intentó algo así, durante su primer mandato, fue un fracaso. En 2018 impuso aranceles del 25 por ciento al acero y del 10 por ciento al aluminio, sosteniendo que estaba protegiendo la seguridad nacional de Estados Unidos y que, en última instancia, los aranceles crearían más puestos de trabajo en Estados Unidos. Los precios subieron y se produjo un aumento temporal de unos 5000 puestos de trabajo en todo el país. Durante la pandemia, se levantaron algunos de los aranceles, y hoy la industria emplea aproximadamente al mismo número de estadounidenses que entonces.Sin embargo, lo más preocupante fue la serie de estudios posteriores que demostraron que el país perdió decenas de miles de puestos de trabajo —más de 75.000, según un estudio— en las industrias que dependían de las importaciones de acero y aluminio. La producción por hora de los fabricantes de acero estadounidenses también había descendido, mientras que la productividad de la industria manufacturera en general en Estados Unidos aumentó.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Trump Shifts From Lifting Up America’s Neighbors to Hurting Them

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      When the United States signed a free-trade agreement with Canada and Mexico more than 30 years ago, the premise was that partnering with two other thriving economies would also benefit America.This week, President Trump abruptly scrapped that idea. He imposed a sweeping 25 percent tariff on the roughly $1 trillion of imports that Mexico and Canada send into the United States each year as part of that North American trade pact. Those tariffs are expected to significantly raise costs for Canadian and Mexican exports, undermining their economies and likely tipping them into recession.Mr. Trump’s decision to unwind decades of economic integration raises big questions about the future of North America and the industries that have been built around the idea of an economically integrated continent. While some factories in Canada and Mexico might move to the United States to avoid tariffs, the levies will also raise costs for American consumers and manufacturers that have come to depend on materials from their North American neighbors.“This is a day where the United States stopped seeing trade as force for mutual benefit, and began seeing it as a tool of economic warfare,” said Edward Alden, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations. He added that the levies were “a fundamental attack on the economic well being of our closest neighbors.”Mr. Trump suggested on Wednesday that this arrangement could be long-lived, as he gave automakers who were abiding by the terms of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement, or U.S.M.C.A., only a one month reprieve to prepare for the tariffs. Trump officials said that the president expected to issue more tariffs on Canada and Mexico next month, when he announces what he is calling “reciprocal” tariff measures.Howard Lutnick at Mr. Trump’s address to a joint session of Congress.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Apple to Invest $500 Billion in U.S. as Trump Tariffs Loom

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      The company pledged the multibillion-dollar investment over the next four years and said it would create 20,000 jobs. The Texas facility is set to open in 2026.Days after Apple’s chief executive met with President Trump, the company said on Monday that it planned to spend $500 billion and hire 20,000 people in the United States over the next four years and open a factory in Texas to make the machines that power the company’s push into artificial intelligence.“We are bullish on the future of American innovation, and we’re proud to build on our longstanding U.S. investments,” Tim Cook, Apple’s chief executive, said in a statement. The company made similar, smaller pledges during the Biden administration and President Trump’s first term. It hasn’t fulfilled all its previous promises.Mr. Cook met with Mr. Trump last week. After that meeting, Mr. Trump said that the company would shift production to the United States: “They’re going to build here instead because they don’t want to pay the tariffs,” Mr. Trump said in a speech to a gathering of governors.Most iPhones are manufactured in China by the Taiwanese electronics giant Foxconn, which will be involved in Apple’s new Houston facility. Earlier this month, U.S. tariffs of 10 percent on all Chinese products took effect. Levies on imports from Canada, Mexico and other major trading partners could be imposed in the coming weeks.Foxconn has spent millions of dollars over the past two years building up its operations outside of China, including in Texas, and in Mexico, where the company already assembles A.I. servers. The company’s chairman previously said that this expanded footprint would help insulate Foxconn against U.S. tariffs.Last year, Foxconn purchased a tract of land north of Houston, next to one of its warehouses, which it said would be used for its artificial intelligence business.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      With Trump’s Help, Intel Could Hand Control of Chip Plants to TSMC

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      The Silicon Valley giant is trying to cut a deal it hopes would help it pull out of a yearslong slump.Intel, a fallen Silicon Valley icon trying to restore its reputation as America’s most prominent semiconductor company, is working with the Trump administration on a plan to turn over the operation of its chip-making plants to a giant Taiwanese rival.Over the past few months, Frank Yeary, the interim executive chairman of Intel, has spoken with administration officials and leaders of Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company about a deal that would separate Intel’s ailing manufacturing business from its semiconductor design and product business, according to four people with knowledge of the plan, who spoke on the condition of anonymity.TSMC, which produces an estimated 90 percent of the world’s most advanced semiconductors, would assume control of Intel’s manufacturing business and take a majority stake in the business alongside a consortium of investors that could include private equity firms and other tech companies, the four people said.The Trump administration has encouraged TSMC to do the deal. Howard Lutnick, President Trump’s nominee for commerce secretary, has been involved in the conversations and considers them one of the most consequential challenges of his new job, two of the people familiar with the discussions said.Intel is the only American-owned maker of advanced logic chips and has been at the forefront of U.S. efforts to rev up domestic manufacturing of semiconductors, which are a foundational technology. But Intel has struggled to compete against TSMC. Most of that company’s production is done in Taiwan, which is a strategic risk for the United States because of growing threats from the government of mainland China.Howard Lutnick has been involved in the talks as President Trump’s pick to lead the Commerce Department.Eric Lee/The New York TimesWe are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Volkswagen Unions Begin Short Strikes and Threaten More

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      Workers at nine of the automaker’s German factories walked off their jobs for several hours, and warned they would escalate the action if their demands went unmet.Volkswagen workers across Germany escalated their labor dispute with management by walking off their jobs for several hours on Monday, and their union threatened longer strikes if their demands were not met.The automaker is in the middle of labor negotiations with IG Metall, the union representing most of its workers, as the company tries to reduce costs in an effort to return it to profitability. Volkswagen is seeking 10-percent wage cuts and threatening to close factories in Germany, the first such move in its 87-year history.Thousands of workers at nine of the company’s plants in Germany, as well as several other subsidiaries that are covered under a wage agreement with the automaker, staged two-hour strikes on Monday, demanding that Volkswagen guarantee their jobs and keep its factories open.IG Metall has threatened to start longer walkouts, or open-ended strikes, unless it is able to reach an agreement with Volkswagen managers.“If necessary, this will be the toughest collective-bargaining battle Volkswagen has ever seen,” said Thorsten Gröger, the chief negotiator and district manager for the union. “Volkswagen will have to decide at the negotiating table how long and how intense this dispute has to be.”The labor battle, the company’s first involving strikes since 2018, comes as Volkswagen, Germany’s leading automaker, faces slowing demand for its cars in Europe and Asia, as well as increased competition from Chinese automakers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Washington Curtails Intel’s Chip Grant After Company Stumbles

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      The Biden administration is reducing its award to the chip maker, partly to account for a multibillion-dollar military contract.The Biden administration plans to reduce Intel’s preliminary $8.5 billion federal CHIPS grant, a move that follows the California-based company’s investment delays and broader business struggles.Intel, the biggest recipient of money under the CHIPS Act, will see its funding drop to less than $8 billion from the $8.5 billion that was announced earlier this year, four people familiar with the grant said. They all spoke on the condition of anonymity because the final contract had not yet been signed. The change in terms takes into account a $3 billion contract that Intel has been offered to produce chips for the U.S. military, two of these people said.The government’s decision to reduce the size of the grant follows Intel’s move to delay some of its planned investments in chip facilities in Ohio. The company now plans to finish that project by the end of the decade instead of 2025. The chip maker has been under pressure to reduce costs after posting its biggest quarterly loss in the company’s 56-year history.The move by the Biden administration also takes into account Intel’s technology road map and customer demand. Intel has been working to improve its technological capacity to catch up to rivals like Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, but it has struggled to convince customers that it can match TSMC’s technology.Intel’s troubles have been a blow to the Biden administration’s plans to rev up domestic chip manufacturing. In March, President Biden traveled to Arizona to announce Intel’s multibillion-dollar award and said the company’s manufacturing investments would transform the semiconductor industry. Intel’s investment was at the forefront of the administration’s ambition to return chip manufacturing to the United States from Asia. The CHIPS Act, a bipartisan bill passed in 2022, provided $39 billion in funding to subsidize the construction of facilities to help the United States reduce its reliance on foreign production of the tiny, critical electronics that power everything from iPads to dishwashers.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Fashion World Fears High Tariffs in Trump Administration

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      President-elect Donald J. Trump has threatened a tax of at least 60 percent on goods from China — a move with the potential to decimate small American brands.In the days after Donald J. Trump won the presidency, several small American fashion designers placed anxious calls to overseas manufacturing partners. Spurred by fears that the president-elect will make good on promises to raise tariffs, thereby upending their operations, they scrambled to find alternatives.The tariffs “would be devastating,” according to Chris Gentile, owner of the Brooklyn-based Pilgrim Surf + Supply, which produces items like padded work coats and fleece zip-ups in China. “I don’t know how we could function.”Throughout his campaign, Mr. Trump threatened to levy a 10 to 20 percent tax on most foreign products and, most significantly, at least a 60 percent tariff on goods from China. The thinking is that sharp taxes would compel companies to begin producing in America again. In conversations with clothing designers over the past week, that logic was met with extreme skepticism.Some designers are not convinced that talk of dizzying tariffs will survive past the campaign trail. But for smaller, independent apparel businesses that rely on the comparative affordability and high quality of Chinese clothing manufacturers, the mere threat of increased taxes on foreign goods was enough to plan for the worst.“We’ve established relationships with these factories,” Mr. Gentile said. “They’ve become almost like family.”A still-scrappy entrepreneur 12 years in, Mr. Gentile doesn’t have an army of supply-chain wonks to ferret out new factories. The task of corresponding with his manufacturers falls largely on him. He’s spent untold hours working with his Chinese production partners on how to set in the sleeves of his shirts just so or how poofy a down jacket should be.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      5 Things to Know About Trump’s Tariff Threats

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      The president-elect says that tariff is “the most beautiful word in the dictionary.” You may be hearing it a lot.President-elect Donald J. Trump has professed a belief in the power of tariffs for decades. Now, as he prepares to take office, they are a central part of his economic plan.Mr. Trump argues that steep tariffs on foreign goods will help benefit U.S. manufacturing and create jobs. His proposals would raise tariffs to a level not seen in generations. Many economists have warned of potentially harmful consequences from such a move, including higher costs for American households and businesses, and globally destabilizing trade wars.Here are five crucial things to know about Mr. Trump’s sweeping trade plans.Mr. Trump has floated several hefty tariff plans.While campaigning for the White House, Mr. Trump offered up a running list of tariffs. He talked about a “universal” tariff of 10 to 20 percent on most foreign products. He has proposed tariffs of 60 percent or more on Chinese goods. And he has suggested removing permanent normal trading relations with China, which would result in an immediate increase in tariffs on Chinese imports.Mr. Trump has also promoted the idea of a “reciprocal” tariff, in which the United States would match the tariff rates that other countries put on American goods. He has suggested using tariff revenue to replace income taxes. And he has threatened tariffs of 100, 200 or even 1,000 percent on Mexico, saying the country should do more to stop flows of migrants and shipments of Chinese cars.The Biden administration has also raised tariffs on goods from China, but Mr. Trump’s plans are much larger — affecting trillions of dollars of products, rather than tens of billions.Mr. Trump says foreign companies pay the tariffs. That’s usually wrong.A tariff is a tax that is put on a product when it crosses a border. For instance, a company that brings its product into the United States — the importer — actually pays the tariff to the U.S. government.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More