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      Citigroup Makes (and Then Fixes) an $81 Trillion Mistake

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      The bank temporarily credited a customer’s account with trillions of dollars, adding to scrutiny of risk management systems after a series of errors.We all make mistakes on the job. But rarely do they involve moving funds that dwarf the gross domestic product of every country in the world.Citigroup accidentally credited a client’s account with $81 trillion when it meant to send only $280, the latest mistake at a bank that is struggling to repair its reputation after a string of errors in recent years.The massive transfer, which occurred last April and far exceeds Citi’s stock market value of about $150 billion, was initially missed by two employees and was caught 90 minutes after it was posted, The Financial Times first reported. No funds left the bank, and Citi told the Federal Reserve and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency about the error, calling it a “near miss.”The mistake was the latest in a string of glitches at the bank. In 2022, a Citi employee caused a crash in Europe by accidentally adding a zero to a trade, igniting a sell-off that at one point erased 300 billion euros, or about $322 billion, from European stocks. Last year, British regulators fined Citi 62 million pounds, about $78 million, for the incident.In 2020, Citigroup accidentally wired $900 million to a group of lenders locked in a bitter fight with Revlon, the beauty company.That year, U.S. regulators also fined Citi $400 million, saying the bank had failed to address issues in its risk management procedures and internal controls.Citi’s problems with technology and internal systems contributed to the departure of Michael Corbat as chief executive of the bank in 2021. Jane Fraser, who succeeded Mr. Corbat, has said improving risk and controls is a priority, but regulators fined Citi $136 million last year for not making enough progress in fixing its data-management issues.Citi said in a statement that its systems prevented the transfer from actually being made. “Despite the fact that a payment of this size could not actually have been executed, our detective controls promptly identified the inputting error between two Citi ledger accounts and we reversed the entry,” the company said.Isabella Kwai More

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      Can the Federal Reserve Look Past Trump’s Tariffs?

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      Top officials are grappling with how to handle potential price increases caused by the administration’s policies.As President Trump’s efforts to restructure the global trade system with expansive tariffs begin to take shape, one question continues to dog officials at the Federal Reserve: How will these policies impact the central bank’s plans to lower interest rates?One influential Fed governor made clear on Monday that he did not expect Mr. Trump’s policies to derail the Fed’s efforts to get inflation under control, suggesting instead that fresh interest rate cuts are still in play this year.“My baseline view is that any imposition of tariffs will only modestly increase prices and in a nonpersistent manner,” Christopher J. Waller, the official, said in remarks at an event in Australia Monday evening. “So I favor looking through these effects when setting monetary policy to the best of our ability.”Economists are concerned that tariffs, which are essentially taxes on American consumers, will increase prices in the United States, at least temporarily, and over time slow economic growth.Mr. Waller acknowledged that the economic impact of the tariffs could be larger than anticipated depending on how they are structured and later put in place. But he suggested that any uptick in prices from tariffs could be blunted by other policies, which could have “positive supply effects and put downward pressure on inflation.”Mr. Waller’s views matter given that he is one of the seven officials who make up the Board of Governors and votes at every policy meeting.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Which Interest Rate Should You Care About?

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      The Fed’s short-term rates matter, but the main action now is in the 10-year Treasury market, which influences mortgages, credit cards and much more, our columnist says.Watch out for interest rates.Not the short-term rates controlled by the Federal Reserve. Barring an unforeseen financial crisis, they’re not going anywhere, especially not after the jump in inflation reported by the government on Wednesday.Instead, pay attention to the 10-year Treasury yield, which has been bouncing around since the election from about 4.8 to 4.2 percent. That’s not an unreasonable level over the last century or so.But it’s much higher than the 2.9 percent average of the last 20 years, according to FactSet data. At its upper range, that 10-year yield may be high enough to dampen the enthusiasm of many entrepreneurs and stock investors and to restrain the stock market and the economy.That’s a problem for the Trump administration. So the new Treasury secretary, Scott Bessent, has stated outright what is becoming an increasingly evident reality. “The president wants lower rates,” Mr. Bessent said in an interview with Fox Business. “He and I are focused on the 10-year Treasury.”Treasuries are the safe and steady core of many investment portfolios. They influence mortgages, credit cards, corporate debt and the exchange rate for the dollar. They are also the standard by which commercial, municipal and sovereign bonds around the world are priced.What’s moving those Treasury rates now is bond traders’ assessments of the economy — including the Trump administration’s on-again, off-again policies on tariffs, as well as its actions on immigration, taxes, spending and much more.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Donald Trump’s Chicken-and-Egg Inflation Problem

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      A surge in egg prices underscores how persistent inflation is spooking the markets and could check the president’s boldest economic policies.Egg prices are on an epic run, part of an inflation surge that could but the brakes on President Trump’s economic plans.Frederic J. Brown/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesJust in: Lawyers for Elon Musk said he’d withdraw his $97.4 billion bid for control of OpenAI if the company halted its efforts to become a for-profit enterprise. More below.Separately: You might recall that several years ago I wrote a series of columns, following a raft of mass shootings, that inspired the creation of a “merchant category code” for gun retailers so credit card companies could better identify suspicious activity the way they already did to help prevent money laundering and sex trafficking.Well, this week Representative Riley Moore, Republican of West Virginia, introduced a bill to make it illegal for credit card companies to require “merchant category codes that distinguish a firearms retailer from general-merchandise retailer.” That means gun retailers would be able to mask what they sell. What do you think of what’s happening?Scrambling Trump’s economic plans President Trump inherited a strong economy with booming labor and stock markets. But one economic holdover could tie his hands: stubbornly strong inflation.Investors are already getting antsy, with stock markets briefly plunging and the bond market suffering its worst day of the year so far after unexpectedly worrying revelations in the latest Consumer Price Index report. It raises questions about what options the White House and Fed would have to maneuver if prices continued to rise.The latest: The C.P.I. data showed headline prices over the past three months running at an annualized pace of 4.5 percent — well above the central bank’s 2 percent target.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Stocks Drop After Hotter Than Expected Inflation Reading

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      Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates just once more this year, a drastic shift in expectations since late 2024.Stocks on Wall Street slumped at the start of trading on Wednesday, dragged lower by data that showed consumer prices rose more than expected in January, leaving the Federal Reserve little cause to lower interest rates again soon.The S&P 500 fell roughly 1 percent as trading got underway. The Nasdaq Composite index, which is chock-full of tech stocks that have come under pressure recently from rising global competition to develop the chips that will power the development of artificial intelligence, also fell around 1 percent.Fresh inflation data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics on Wednesday showed that prices rose 3 percent for the year through January, up from 2.9 percent in December. The “core” Consumer Price Index, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, rose 3.3 percent year-over-year.Signs of continuing price pressure is likely to encourage the Fed to refrain from further interest rate cuts in the coming months. For stock investors, higher interest rates means slower business activity, which can weigh on companies’ earnings and stock prices.The uptick in inflation in January “does not derail the longer-term downward trend in inflation,” said Kyle Chapman, a foreign exchange market analyst at Ballinger Group. But, he said, “it does reaffirm the consensus that cuts are going to come much more slowly than we had thought towards the end of last year.”Investors are now betting that the Federal Reserve will keep interest rates at their current level until December. It’s a drastic shift in expectations since last year, when traders were expecting as many as four cuts for 2025, and even just a few weeks ago investors expected the next cut in rates as soon as June.The two year Treasury yield, which is sensitive to changes in investors’ interest rate expectations, rose sharply after the inflation report, up 0.1 percentage points to 4.36 percent, close to its highest level of the year.Wednesday’s drop comes after a bumpy three weeks for traders, with whipsaw swings in stock prices reflecting investors’ struggle to parse the flurry of executive actions taken by President Trump since he returned to the White House for a second term.The S&P 500 has risen roughly 3 percent since the start of the year and has nudged up 1.2 percent since inauguration day, despite the volatility.Impending tariffs are adding to concern about an acceleration in inflation. On Monday, Mr. Trump announced tariffs on foreign steel and aluminum. He has already imposed a 10 percent tariff on Chinese goods, and broad 25 percent tariffs on Canada and Mexico are set to take effect in March, after being delayed for a month.“Rising prices already appear to be a headwind, and the prospect of new trade barriers have the potential to further fuel inflationary pressures by increasing costs for businesses and consumers,” said Jason Pride, chief of investment strategy and research at Glenmede, a wealth management firm. More

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      PCE, a Key Inflation Measure, Sped Up in October

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      Inflation has been stubborn in recent months. Now, President-elect Donald J. Trump’s tariffs loom as a potential risk.The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure sped up in October, a development that is likely to keep central bankers wary as they contemplate the path ahead for interest rates.The Personal Consumption Expenditures index climbed 2.3 percent from a year earlier, quicker than 2.1 percent in September.After stripping out volatile food and fuel costs to get a better sense of the underlying trend in prices, a “core” index climbed 2.8 percent from a year earlier. That was up from 2.7 percent previously.Looking at how much prices climbed over just the past month, the overall index rose 0.2 percent from September, and the core index increased 0.3 percent. Both changes were in line with their previous readings and with economist expectations. Policymakers sometimes look at monthly price changes to get an up-to-date sense of how inflation is evolving.The upshot from the report is that inflation is proving sticky after months of steady progress. Price increases remain much cooler than they were at their peak in 2022, which topped out at about 7 percent for the overall index. But they remain slightly faster than the 2 percent pace that the Fed targets.That is preventing officials from declaring victory over inflation, although policymakers still expect price increases to continue to cool toward their goal.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Inflation Concerns Loom as Trumponomics Revs Up

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      Investors are bracing for the latest data as the president-elect’s economic agenda of cutting immigration and taxes, while raising tariffs takes shape.Progress on tamping down inflation has stalled in recent months. Will today’s data show more of the same?David Zalubowski/Associated PressTrump puts inflation on the agenda The inflation risk stalking the markets eased over the summer, but it never really went away. It’s front and center again as investors contend with a Trumponomics crackdown on immigration, a rising trade-war risk and a potential bonanza of tax cuts.An important inflation measure comes out at 10 a.m. Eastern: the Personal Consumption Expenditures index report. It’s the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and one of the last big data releases of the year that the central bank will consider as it ponders when to lower borrowing costs further. (Next week’s jobs report is another.)Donald Trump’s latest trade threats show how uncertain the outlook could be. Since the president-elect this week vowed to impose tariffs on Canada, China and Mexico — the United States’ three biggest trade partners — analysts have been gaming out the potential impact. Economists fear that it could add bottlenecks and costs to supply chains and reignite inflation, and that it could scramble the Fed’s policy on interest rates.A worst-case scenario from Deutsche Bank economists: that core P.C.E. next year would jump by an additional 1.1 percentage points if the Trump tariffs were fully enacted. Is the tariff talk an opening salvo for trade negotiations, or a fait accompli? That uncertainty can be felt in the $28 trillion market for U.S. Treasury notes and bonds: Yields hit a four-month high this month, though they are down on Wednesday. Yields climb when prices fall, and have been especially sensitive to concerns that fiscal policy could fuel inflation.Here’s what to watch for in Wednesday’s P.C.E.:Core P.C.E., which excludes volatile food and food prices, is forecast to come in at 2.8 percent on an annualized basis. That would be 0.29 percent above September’s reading.Such a rise would represent a second straight month of inflation trending higher, putting the level further above the Fed’s 2 percent target. The report “should show another ‘bump in the road’ on the path to 2 percent inflation,” Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup, wrote in an investor note this week.The culprits are thought to be shelter inflation — especially house prices, with mortgage rates soaring — and used car prices, as well as higher portfolio management fees.Futures traders on Wednesday were pricing in roughly 60 percent odds of a Fed rate cut next month. But their calculations have been volatile in recent months, and a surprisingly hot number could cause a shift in thinking once again.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Race to Lead Trump’s Treasury Dept. Is Becoming a Cliffhanger

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      Howard Lutnick? Scott Bessent? Marc Rowan? Kevin Warsh? The president-elect’s list of candidates has grown longer, clouding the future of the department.Who will get the key to head up the Treasury Department?Kevin Lamarque/ReutersRowan and Warsh shake up Treasury raceFew of the unfilled positions in Donald Trump’s cabinet are as important as Treasury secretary. But the question of who will fill the role is only getting cloudier.Allies of two candidates, Howard Lutnick, the transition co-chair, and Scott Bessent, a top economic adviser, publicly stumped for them this weekend. But The Times reports that the president-elect himself wants somebody “big” for the role and is now considering Marc Rowan, the C.E.O. of Apollo Global Management, and Kevin Warsh, a former Fed governor.Elon Musk, Dan Loeb and others are weighing in. Musk threw his support behind Lutnick over the weekend, calling Bessent “business as usual,” an especially cutting criticism in the Trump camp. That said, The Times reports that Trump has privately griped about Lutnick hanging around too much and potentially manipulating the transition process for his own benefit.Loeb backed Bessent, arguing that choosing Lutnick might rattle investors, including in the $28 trillion market for Treasury bonds and notes. That said, Bessent is also being floated for positions such as chair of the White House’s National Economic Council.Trump has told associates that he is impressed by Rowan, The Times reports. The president-elect tends to value wealth and status on Wall Street, and Rowan, a co-founder of Apollo who helped turn the firm into a $733 billion investment giant, has plenty of both.Rowan would be likely to reassure many on Wall Street, particularly given how unorthodox some of the other cabinet choices have been. But it’s unclear whether he would want to take such a public role, especially given his current work at Apollo. (How hard it would be to extricate Rowan from any “key man” provisions in the firm’s funds is another question.)We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More