Gangs

Subterms

    More stories

    • 125 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Is Daniel Noboa the Answer to Ecuador’s Need for Change?

      by

      For generations, the Noboa family has helped shape Ecuador, overseeing a vast economic empire, including fertilizers, plastics, cardboard, the country’s largest container storage facility and, most famously, a gargantuan banana business featuring one of the world’s most recognizable fruit brands, Bonita.One notable position has escaped them, however: the presidency. On five occasions, the head of the family conglomerate, Álvaro Noboa, has run for president and lost — in one case by two percentage points.On Sunday, the Noboas may finally get their presidency. Mr. Noboa’s son, Daniel Noboa, a 35-year-old Harvard Kennedy School graduate who has used the same campaign jingle as his father, is the leading candidate in a runoff election. His opponent is Luisa González, the handpicked candidate of former President Rafael Correa, who beat the elder Noboa in 2006.The legacy of the banana company — and Daniel Noboa’s association with it — is just one aspect of an election that centers on issues of employment and security in this country of 17 million on South America’s western coast that has been jolted by the extraordinary power gained by the drug trafficking industry in the last five years.International criminal groups working with local gangs have unleashed an unprecedented surge of violence that has sent tens of thousands of Ecuadoreans fleeing to the U.S.-Mexico border, part of a migration wave that has overwhelmed the Biden administration.Mr. Noboa rose unexpectedly from the bottom of the polls to a second-place finish in the first round of presidential elections in August, helped, experts said, by a widely lauded debate performance and the upending of the race by the shocking assassination of another candidate, Fernando Villavicencio, days before the vote.Mr. Noboa has galvanized a base of frustrated voters on the back of a campaign promising change.“He has been able to say that ‘I represent renewal in Ecuador,’” said Caroline Ávila, an Ecuadorean political analyst. “And that is why people are buying his message.”Sunday’s election pits Mr. Noboa, a center-right businessman, against Ms. González, 45, a leftist establishment candidate, at a moment of deep anxiety in a country once a relatively peaceful island in a violent region.Mr. Noboa’s opponent, Luisa González, is the handpicked candidate of former President Rafael Correa.Karen Toro/ReutersMr. Noboa, who declined several requests for an interview, has had a consistent lead in multiple polls since August, though it has narrowed slightly in recent days.He has positioned himself as “the employment president,” even including a work application form on his website, and has promised to attract international investment and trade and cut taxes.His opponent, Ms. González, has pledged to tap central bank reserves to stimulate the economy and increase financing for the public health care system and public universities.On security, both candidates have talked about providing more money for the police and deploying the military to secure ports used to smuggle drugs out of the country and prisons, which are controlled by violent gangs.Ms. González’s close association with Mr. Correa has helped elevate her political profile, but also hurt her among some voters.Her first place finish in the first round was propelled by a strong base of voters nostalgic for the low homicide rates and commodities boom that lifted millions out of poverty during Mr. Correa’s administration. Ms. González’s campaign slogan in the first round was “we already did it and we will do it again.”But building on that support is a challenge. Mr. Correa’s authoritarian style and accusations of corruption deeply divided the country. He is living in exile in Belgium, fleeing a prison sentence for campaign finance violations, and many Ecuadoreans fear that a González presidency would pave the way for him to return and run for office again.Mr. Correa’s tenure was marked by low homicide rates and a commodities boom that lifted millions out of poverty. But now he is living in exile, facing a prison term on corruption chargesDaniel Berehulak for The New York TimesDaniel Noboa is part of the third generation of his family that today operates a sprawling venture, but whose roots were in agriculture.The Noboa family’s rise to prominence and wealth began with Luis Noboa, Daniel’s grandfather, who was born into poverty in 1916, but started building his business empire in the second half of the 20th century by exporting bananas and other crops.His death in 1994 set off a bitter court battle on three continents among his wife and children for control of the business that finally ended in 2002, when a judge in London awarded Álvaro Noboa a 50 percent stake in the family’s holding company.Álvaro expanded the company internationally, while also fighting multiple legal battles over back taxes and disputed payments to shipping companies.As a politician, he described himself as a “messiah of the poor,” handing out free computers and fistfuls of dollars at his rallies, while also fending off accusations of child labor, worker mistreatment and union busting at his banana business. (He has claimed that the accusations were politically motivated.)His son, Daniel, was raised in the port city of Guayaquil, where he founded an event promotion company when he was 18, before moving to the United States to study at New York University. Afterward he became commercial director for the Noboa Corporation and earned three more degrees, including a master’s in public administration from the Harvard Kennedy School.He ran successfully for Ecuador’s Congress in 2021, positioning himself as a pro-business lawmaker, until President Guillermo Lasso disbanded the legislature in May and called for early elections.Mr. Noboa, shown wearing a bullet-resistant vest, and Ms. González have vowed to rein in the violence, though neither has made security a central part of their campaign.Marcos Pin/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesMr. Noboa has promoted a more left-leaning platform, railing against the banking industry and calling for more social spending.A Harvard classmate and close friend of Mr. Noboa, Mauricio Lizcano, a senior official in Colombia, described the candidate as someone “who respects diversity and respects women, who believes in social issues” but is also “orthodox in economics and business.’’Still, Mr. Noboa has not raised social issues on the campaign trail, and his running mate, Verónica Abad, is a right-wing business coach who has spoken out against abortion, feminism and L.G.B.T.Q. rights and expressed support for Donald J. Trump and Jair Bolsonaro, Brazil’s former far-right president.Ms. Abad is “a really odd choice for someone like Noboa who’s trying to transcend this kind of left-right divide,” said Guillaume Long, a senior policy analyst at the Center for Economic and Policy Research and Ecuador’s former foreign minister under Mr. Correa.Despite his family pedigree, Mr. Noboa has tried to set himself apart, pointing out that he has his own business and that his personal wealth is valued at less than $1 million.While Álvaro frequently referred to Mr. Correa as a “communist devil,” his son has avoided directly attacking “correísmo.’’“I never voted for his father, but this guy has a different aura, new blood, a new way of thinking,’’ said Enrique Insua, a 63-year-old retiree in Guayaquil. “He is charismatic.”A campaign mural for Mr. Noboa in Duran, Ecuador, a municipality on the Pacific Coast that has been torn by violence. Rodrigo Abd/Associated PressBut like his father, Daniel has also drawn criticism from analysts who fear he could use the presidency to advance the family’s many businesses.“Whether in the manufacturing sector, in services or agriculture, everything is under their control in some way or another,” said Grace Jaramillo, a political science professor and expert on Ecuador at the University of British Columbia in Canada.“There’s no issue in economic policy that will not affect for the good or bad, any of their enterprises,” she added. “It’s a permanent conflict of interest.”Ecuador’s economy was ravaged by the coronavirus pandemic, and just 34 percent of Ecuadoreans have adequate employment, according to government data.Beyond the economy, the country heads to the polls during what has perhaps been the most violent electoral season in its history.Beside Mr. Villavicencio — who was outspoken about what he claimed were links between organized crime and the government — five other politicians have been killed this year. Last week, seven men accused of killing Mr. Villavicencio were found dead in prison.Soldiers on patrol in Guayaquil, Ecuador, the country’s largest city, which has also experienced drug-fueled violence.Victor Moriyama for The New York TimesMr. Lasso, the departing president, called for early elections to avoid an impeachment trial over accusations of embezzlement and widespread voter anger with the government’s inability to stem the bloodshed.With news reports regularly featuring beheadings, car bombs and police assassinations, Mr. Noboa and Ms. González have vowed to rein in the violence, though neither has made security a central part of their campaigns.Ms. González, during a presidential debate, pointed to the arrests of several leaders of criminal gangs when she served in the Correa administration.“We will have the same iron fist with those who have declared war on the Ecuadorean state,” she said.Mr. Noboa has proposed the use of technology, like drones and satellite tracking systems, to stem drug trafficking and has suggested building prison boats to isolate the most violent inmates.But analysts say the two candidates have not done enough to prioritize combating the crime that has destabilized Ecuador and turned it into one of Latin America’s most violent countries.“Neither Luisa González, nor especially Noboa seem to have much of a plan on security or to emphasize it,” said Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations, a U.S. research institute. “It’s like politics is frozen in an era before all this happened.”Thalíe Ponce More

    • 138 Shares169 Views

      in Elections

      Elecciones en Ecuador: Noboa y González se enfrentan en segunda vuelta

      by

      Durante generaciones, la familia Noboa ha ayudado a forjar a Ecuador: controla un vasto imperio económico que incluye fertilizantes, plástico, cartón, la mayor instalación de almacenamiento de contenedores del país y, lo más conocido, un gigantesco negocio de banano con una de las marcas de fruta más reconocidas del mundo: Bonita.Sin embargo, se les ha escapado un cargo: la presidencia. En cinco ocasiones, el jefe del conglomerado familiar, Álvaro Noboa, ha sido candidato a la presidencia y ha perdido, una vez por dos puntos porcentuales.El domingo, los Noboa podrían al fin llegar a la presidencia. El hijo de Álvaro Noboa, Daniel Noboa, graduado de la Escuela de Gobierno John F. Kennedy de 35 años que ha usado el mismo jingle de campaña que su padre, es el principal candidato en la segunda vuelta electoral. Su oponente es Luisa González, la candidata elegida personalmente por el expresidente Rafael Correa, que venció al padre de Noboa en 2006.El legado de la empresa bananera —y su vínculo con Daniel Noboa— es solo uno de los aspectos de unas elecciones que se centran en cuestiones de empleo y seguridad en este país de 17 millones de habitantes en la costa occidental de Sudamérica, conmocionado por el extraordinario poder que el narcotráfico ha adquirido en los últimos cinco años.Grupos criminales internacionales que trabajan con pandillas locales han desatado una oleada de violencia sin precedentes que ha hecho que decenas de miles de ecuatorianos se encaminen a la frontera entre Estados Unidos y México, parte de una afluencia de migración que ha desbordado al gobierno de Joe Biden.Noboa surgió inesperadamente desde los últimos lugares de las encuestas para posicionarse en el segundo puesto en la primera ronda presidencial de agosto. Los expertos dicen que le favoreció una celebrada actuación en el debate, así como el vuelco que tomó la contienda cuando otro candidato, Fernando Villavicencio, fue asesinado sorpresivamente días antes de las votaciones.Noboa ha activado a una base de votantes inconformes con la promesa del cambio.“Ha sido capaz de decir: ‘Yo soy la renovación, yo la represento en Ecuador’”, dijo Caroline Ávila, una analista política ecuatoriana. Ese es el mensaje que “la gente le está comprando”, agregó.Las elecciones del domingo enfrentan a Noboa, un empresario de centroderecha, con González, de 45 años, candidata del establishment de izquierda, en un momento en que el país, otrora una isla relativamente pacífica en una región violenta, está sumido en una profunda inquietud.La oponente de Noboa, Luisa González, es la candidata elegida por el expresidente Rafael Correa.Karen Toro/ReutersNoboa, quien rechazó varios pedidos de entrevista, ha tenido la delantera de forma consistente en varias encuestas desde agosto, aunque en los últimos días la brecha entre ambos candidatos se ha cerrado.Se ha posicionado como “el presidente del empleo”, en su página web incluso ha incluido un formulario de búsqueda de empleo, y prometido atraer el comercio y la inversión extranjeros y recortar los impuestos.González, su oponente, ha prometido hacer uso de las reservas del banco central para estimular la economía y aumentar la financiación del sistema público de salud y las universidades públicas.En materia de seguridad, ambos candidatos han mencionado que brindarán más fondos a la policía y emplearán al ejército para resguardar los puertos, que se usan para el narcotráfico, y las prisiones, que están bajo el control de pandillas violentas.La cercanía de González con Correa ha ayudado a elevar su perfil político, pero también le ha perjudicado entre algunos votantes.Logró el primer lugar en la primera vuelta de las elecciones impulsada por una amplia base de votantes que añoran las bajas tasas de homicidios y un auge de los precios de las materias primas que logró sacar a millones de personas de la pobreza en el gobierno de Correa. El eslogan de campaña de González en la primera vuelta fue: “Ya lo hicimos y lo volveremos a hacer”.Pero ampliar ese apoyo es un desafío. El estilo autoritario de Correa y las acusaciones de corrupción en su contra dividieron profundamente al país. El expresidente vive exiliado en Bélgica, huyendo de una condena de prisión por violar las disposiciones de financiamiento de campaña. Muchos ecuatorianos temen que una eventual presidencia de González allane el camino para que regrese y vuelva a postularse.El mandato de Correa se caracterizó por unos bajos índices de homicidios y el auge de los precios de las materias primas, que sacó a millones de personas de la pobreza. Pero ahora vive en el exilio, sentenciado a prisión por corrupción.Daniel Berehulak para The New York TimesDaniel Noboa forma parte de la tercera generación de una familia que hoy opera un amplio negocio pero con raíces en la agricultura.La familia Noboa adquirió riqueza y prominencia gracias a Luis Noboa, abuelo de Daniel, quien nació en la pobreza en 1916 pero construyó un imperio en la segunda mitad del siglo XX a base de la exportación de banano y otros productos.Su muerte, en 1994, desató una encarnizada batalla judicial en tres continentes cuando su esposa e hijos se disputaron el control del negocio. Al final, en 2002, un juez en Londres le adjudicó a Álvaro Noboa una participación del 50 por ciento en el holding familiar.Álvaro expandió la empresa a nivel internacional y al mismo tiempo emprendió varias peleas judiciales por impuestos atrasados y litigio de pagos con empresas de transporte.En su carrera política se describió como “mesías” de los pobres y en sus mítines entregaba computadoras y puñados de dólares. Al mismo tiempo refutaba acusaciones de explotación infantil, maltrato laboral y represión sindical en su empresa bananera. (Ha dicho que las acusaciones tenían motivaciones políticas).Su hijo, Daniel, creció en la ciudad portuaria de Guayaquil, donde fundó una empresa de promoción de eventos a los 18 años. Luego se mudó a Estados Unidos para estudiar en la Universidad de Nueva York. Luego sería director comercial de la Corporación Noboa al tiempo que obtuvo otros tres grados académicos, entre ellos una maestría en administración pública de la Escuela Kennedy de Harvard.En 2021, Daniel se postuló al Congreso y ganó, al posicionarse como un legislador favorable al empresariado, hasta que en mayo el presidente Guillermo Lasso disolvió la legislatura y llamó a elecciones anticipadas.Noboa, en la foto con un chaleco antibalas, y González se han comprometido a frenar la violencia, aunque ninguno de los dos ha hecho de la seguridad una parte central de su campaña.Marcos Pin/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesNoboa ha promovido una plataforma más de izquierda y se ha pronunciado en contra de la banca y pedido más gasto social.Mauricio Lizcano, compañero y amigo cercano de Noboa, así como alto funcionario en Colombia, describió al candidato como alguien “que respeta la diversidad y respeta a las mujeres, que cree mucho en lo social”, pero también es “ortodoxo en la economía y en la empresa”.Sin embargo, Noboa no ha planteado temas sociales en campaña y Verónica Abad, su compañera de fórmula, es una coach de negocios de derecha que se ha pronunciado en contra del aborto, el feminismo y los derechos de la comunidad LGBTQ y también ha expresado apoyo por Donald Trump y Jair Bolsonaro, el expresidente ultraderechista de Brasil.Abad es “una elección bastante rara para alguien como Noboa, que está intentando ir más allá de esta división izquierda-derecha”, dijo Guillaume Long, analista sénior de política en el Centro de Investigación Económica y Política y quien se desempeñó como ministro de Relaciones Exteriores en el gobierno de Correa.A pesar de su pedigrí familiar, Noboa ha intentado diferenciarse al declarar que tiene su propio negocio y que su fortuna personal no asciende a 1 millón de dólares.Si bien Álvaro se refería con frecuencia a Correa como un “diablo comunista”, su hijo ha evitado atacar directamente al correísmo.“Por el padre nunca voté, pero este chico tiene un aura diferente, nueva sangre, nueva forma de pensar”, dijo Enrique Insua, un jubilado de 63 años en Guayaquil. “Es carismático”.Un mural de la campaña de Noboa en Durán, Ecuador, una ciudad de la costa del Pacífico afectada por la violencia.Rodrigo Abd/Associated PressPero, al igual que su padre, Daniel también ha atraído críticas de algunos analistas, que temen que pudiera usar el cargo presidencial para ayudar a las muchas empresas familiares.“Ya sea en el sector manufacturero, en los servicios o en la agricultura, de una forma u otra todo está bajo su control”, dijo Grace Jaramillo profesora de ciencia política y experta en Ecuador en la Universidad de British Columbia en Canadá.“No hay tema de política económica que no afectará, para bien o para mal, a alguna de sus empresas”, añadió. “Es un conflicto de interés permanente”.La economía del país fue muy afectada por la pandemia de coronavirus y solo el 34 por ciento de ecuatorianos tienen un empleo adecuado, según datos gubernamentales.Además del sector económico, el país se dirige a las urnas en la que tal vez sea la temporada electoral más violenta de la historia del país.Este año han sido asesinados cinco políticos, además de Villavicencio —quien se expresó abiertamente sobre supuestos vínculos entre el gobierno y el crimen organizado— y la semana pasada siete hombres imputados por el asesinato de Villavicencio fueron hallados muertos en prisión.Soldados patrullando en Guayaquil, la ciudad más grande de Ecuador, que también ha sufrido la violencia del narcotráfico.Victor Moriyama para The New York TimesLasso, el presidente saliente, convocó a elecciones anticipadas para evitar un juicio de destitución por acusaciones malversación de fondos y una indignación generalizada de los votantes ante la incapacidad del gobierno por detener la violencia.Ante un panorama informativo en el que suelen reportarse decapitaciones, coches bomba y asesinatos de policías, tanto Noboa como González han prometido frenar la violencia, aunque ninguno de los dos ha hecho de la seguridad un tema central de campaña.En un debate presidencial González mencionó el arresto de varios líderes de bandas criminales durante su tiempo en el gobierno de Correa.“La misma mano dura tendremos con quienes le han declarado la guerra al Estado ecuatoriano”, dijo.Noboa ha propuesto emplear la tecnología, como drones y sistemas de rastreo satelital, para detener al narcotráfico; sugirió buques prisión como una forma de aislar a los reos más violentos.Pero los analistas comentan que ambos candidatos han fallado al no priorizar el combate al crimen; la delincuencia ha desestabilizado a Ecuador y lo ha convertido en uno de los países más violentos de América Latina.“Ni Luisa González ni especialmente Noboa parecen tener un plan de seguridad bien definido ni la enfatizan”, dijo Will Freeman, investigador de Estudios Latinoamericanos en el Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores. “Es como si la política estuviera congelada en una época previa”.Thalíe Ponce More

    • 100 Shares149 Views

      in Elections

      Elecciones en Ecuador y Guatemala en 4 conclusiones

      by

      A los “outsiders” les fue mejor de lo esperado, lo que subraya la volatilidad de la política latinoamericana. A los candidatos que llamaron a emular las medidas enérgicas contra el crimen de El Salvador no les fue bien.El domingo, Ecuador y Guatemala celebraron elecciones que dejaron en evidencia algunas tendencias cruciales en América Latina como los esfuerzos anticorrupción, la creciente importancia de los votantes jóvenes y los llamados a emular las medidas enérgicas contra el crimen de El Salvador.En Ecuador, donde el asesinato del candidato presidencial Fernando Villavicencio este mes ensombreció la campaña, una política de la izquierda tradicional, Luisa González, se enfrentará en una segunda vuelta a Daniel Noboa, el heredero de una familia adinerada conocida por su imperio bananero.Y en Guatemala, el activista progresista y anticorrupción Bernardo Arévalo ganó la segunda vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de manera aplastante contra una ex primera dama, Sandra Torres, asestando así un golpe al establishment político conservador del país.Debido a las preocupaciones latentes sobre la erosión del Estado de derecho y la influencia cada vez mayor de las bandas narcotraficantes en diferentes partes de América Latina, la votación fue observada de cerca en busca de señales de lo que podrían significar los resultados.A continuación, presentamos algunas conclusiones clave.El presidente de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, ha tomado medidas enérgicas contra la violencia de las pandillas mediante arrestos masivos que perjudicaron a miles de personas inocentes.Brittainy Newman para The New York TimesLa delincuencia no fue el único tema en la mente de los votantesEcuador y Guatemala enfrentan una variedad de retos diferentes, y aunque las dificultades para gobernar de manera efectiva en ambos países son bien conocidas, los nuevos líderes tendrán que lidiar con tener bajo control el crimen organizado y crear oportunidades económicas para mantener a sus ciudadanos en casa y evitar que emigren.La estrella del momento en la escena política de América Latina es el presidente populista conservador de El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, debido a su éxito en el uso de tácticas de línea dura para sofocar la violencia de las pandillas, incluidos arrestos masivos que afectaron a miles de personas inocentes y erosionaron las libertades civiles. Pero las expectativas de que los entusiastas de las tácticas de Bukele sobre el crimen tendrían un camino fácil hacia la victoria se desvanecieron tanto en Ecuador como en Guatemala.“Es notable que en ninguno de los dos casos les haya ido bien a los admiradores descarados de las políticas severas de Nayib Bukele contra las bandas criminales en El Salvador”, dijo Michael Shifter, miembro principal de Diálogo Intermericano, una organización de investigación con sede en Washington.A pesar de la conmoción generada por el asesinato de Villavicencio, los candidatos explícitamente anticrimen en Ecuador dividieron su porción de los votos. A Jan Topic, quien se alineó estrechamente con Bukele, le fue mal a pesar de haber subido en las encuestas tras el asesinato.“Hizo una campaña de un solo tema que, en su mayoría, se enfocó en la seguridad”, dijo Risa Grais-Targow, directora para América Latina de Eurasia Group, sobre Topic. “Pero los votantes tienen otras preocupaciones, como las relacionadas con la economía”.De manera similar, en Guatemala —donde crecían los temores de un descenso hacia el autoritarismo— la promesa de Torres de implementar políticas al estilo de Bukele no logró ganar mucho impulso. En cambio, su rival la puso a la defensiva debido a que había pasado un tiempo bajo arresto domiciliario en relación con cargos de financiamiento ilícito de campañas.También influyeron en el resultado las maniobras de la autoridad electoral de Guatemala para simplemente descalificar a los candidatos que se consideraron amenazas al orden establecido.Uno de los candidatos expulsados de la contienda antes de la primera vuelta en junio fue Carlos Pineda, un outsider que buscaba replicar las medidas enérgicas contra el crimen de Bukele. La descalificación de Pineda y otros le abrió un camino a Arévalo, otro candidato independiente cuyas propuestas para combatir el delito son más matizadas.Los candidatos guatemaltecos intentaron capitalizar el apoyo de los jóvenes.Daniele Volpe para The New York TimesLos votantes jóvenes influyen en las eleccionesEn un grado notable, los resultados electorales en Ecuador y Guatemala dependieron de las decisiones de los votantes jóvenes. En Ecuador, Noboa, un empresario de 35 años, neófito de la política, estaba en los últimos lugares de las encuestas hasta hace apenas unas semanas.Pero aprovechando el apoyo de los jóvenes mientras se presentaba como un candidato independiente, Noboa se abrió camino inesperadamente hacia la segunda vuelta con cerca del 24 por ciento de los votos. (El reconocimiento de su apellido también podría haber ayudado; su padre, Álvaro Noboa, uno de los hombres más ricos de Ecuador, se postuló a la presidencia en cinco oportunidades).En Guatemala, el país más poblado de América Central, Arévalo, de 64 años, también se benefició del apoyo de los jóvenes, especialmente en las ciudades, quienes se sintieron atraídos por sus llamados a poner fin a la persecución política de activistas de derechos humanos, ambientalistas, periodistas, fiscales y jueces.Arévalo también mostró una postura más moderada sobre temas sociales. Aunque dijo que no buscaría legalizar el aborto o el matrimonio igualitario, dejó claro que su gobierno no permitiría la discriminación contra las personas por su orientación sexual.Esa postura, algo novedosa en Guatemala, contrastó en gran manera con la de Torres, quien seleccionó a un pastor evangélico como su compañero de fórmula y empleó un insulto contra personas homosexuales en la campaña electoral para referirse a los simpatizantes de Arévalo.Luisa González enfrentará a Daniel Noboa en la segunda vuelta de las elecciones en Ecuador.Johanna Alarcón para The New York TimesLa izquierda va en diferentes direccionesGuatemala y Ecuador ofrecieron visiones contrastantes de la izquierda en América Latina.Dentro del panorama político tradicionalmente conservador de Guatemala, Arévalo, quien critica gobiernos de izquierda como el de Nicaragua, a menudo es descrito como un progresista. En ese sentido se parece más a Gabriel Boric, el presidente joven y moderado de Chile, que a los agitadores de otras zonas de la región.El partido de Arévalo, Movimiento Semilla, el cual se formó tras las protestas anticorrupción en 2015, también es diferente a cualquier otro movimiento surgido en Guatemala durante las últimas décadas. Semilla llamó la atención por realizar una campaña austera y de principios, dejando claras sus fuentes de financiamiento, a diferencia del financiamiento opaco que prevalece en otros partidos. Otra fuente de inspiración para Semilla es el Frente Amplio de Uruguay, un partido de centro izquierda moderado y democrático.“Arévalo es un demócrata de pies a cabeza”, aseveró Will Freeman, miembro de estudios latinoamericanos del Consejo de Relaciones Exteriores.González, en contraste, proviene de un sector diferente de la izquierda latinoamericana, caracterizado en el caso de Ecuador por poner a prueba los controles y equilibrios democráticos, dijo Freeman. Es partidaria de Rafael Correa, un expresidente ecuatoriano que sigue siendo una fuerza dominante en la política del país a pesar de tener seis años fuera del poder.Correa, quien vive en Bélgica tras huir de una sentencia de prisión de ocho años por violaciones en el financiamiento de campañas, conserva una base sólida que oscila entre el 20 y el 30 por ciento del electorado.En gran medida, ese apoyo es resultado de la “nostalgia de ese momento de bienestar que hubo durante la era de Correa”, dijo Caroline Ávila, analista política en Ecuador.Arévalo obtuvo más votos que cualquier otro candidato en Guatemala desde que se restableció la democracia en el país en 1985.Daniele Volpe para The New York TimesLa imprevisibilidad marcó las contiendasLas elecciones tanto en Ecuador como en Guatemala destacaron una tendencia regional más general: la incertidumbre y volatilidad de la política latinoamericana.En ambos países, las encuestas fallaron en captar desarrollos cruciales. En Ecuador, donde Topic capitalizó las consecuencias del asesinato de Villavicencio, Noboa se abrió camino para pasar a la segunda vuelta.Y en Guatemala, Arévalo, un candidato académico que a veces lee sus discursos y carece de las habilidades oratorias de sus rivales, no fue visto como una amenaza por el establishment hasta que logró pasar a la segunda vuelta.Hoy, con su aplastante victoria, Arévalo obtuvo más votos que cualquier otro candidato desde que se restauró la democracia en Guatemala en 1985.Ese es un escenario que incluso muchos miembros del propio partido de Arévalo no vieron venir.Simon Romero More

    • 88 Shares129 Views

      in Elections

      Elections in Ecuador and Guatemala: Four Takeaways

      by

      Outsiders overperformed, underscoring the volatility of Latin American politics. Candidates calling to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on crime did not do well.Ecuador and Guatemala held elections on Sunday that shed light on crucial trends throughout Latin America, including anticorruption drives, the growing importance of young voters and calls to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on crime.In Ecuador, where the assassination this month of the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio cast a pall over campaigning, an establishment leftist, Luisa González, will head into a runoff against Daniel Noboa, the scion of a well-heeled family known for its banana empire.And in Guatemala, the progressive anti-graft crusader Bernardo Arévalo won in a landslide over a former first lady, Sandra Torres, dealing a blow to the country’s conservative political establishment.As concerns simmer over the erosion of the rule of law and the expanding sway of drug gangs in different parts of Latin America, the voting was watched closely for signs of what the outcomes could mean.Here are key takeaways.President Nayib Bukele of El Salvador has cracked down on gang violence, using mass arrests that swept up thousands of innocent people. Brittainy Newman for The New York TimesCrime wasn’t the only issue on voters’ minds.Ecuador and Guatemala each face an array of different challenges, and while it is hard to overstate the difficulty of governing effectively in both countries, new leaders will grapple with getting organized crime under control and creating economic opportunities to keep their citizens at home instead of emigrating.The star of the moment in Latin America’s political scene is El Salvador’s conservative populist president, Nayib Bukele, for his success in using hard-line tactics to quell gang violence, including mass arrests that swept up thousands of innocent people and the erosion of civil liberties. But expectations that enthusiasts for the Bukele gospel on crime would sail to victory fizzled in Ecuador and Guatemala.“It is notable that in neither case did unabashed admirers of Nayib Bukele’s hard-line policies against criminal gangs in El Salvador fare well,” said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, a Washington-based research organization.Despite the shock over the assassination of Mr. Villavicencio, explicitly anti-crime candidates in Ecuador split their share of the votes. Jan Topic, who aligned himself closely with Mr. Bukele, fared poorly despite climbing in the polls after the assassination.“He did run a single-issue campaign that was very much focused around security,” Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, said of Mr. Topic. “But voters have other concerns, including on the economy.”Similarly, in Guatemala — where fears were growing of a slide toward authoritarian rule — Ms. Torres’s pledge to put in place Bukele-style policies failed to gain much traction. Instead, the former first lady was put on the defensive by her rival because she had spent time under house arrest in connection to charges of illicit campaign financing.Also influencing the outcome: moves by Guatemala’s electoral authority to simply disqualify candidates who were viewed as threatening the established order.One of the candidates pushed out of the race ahead of the first round in June was Carlos Pineda, an outsider seeking to replicate Mr. Bukele’s crackdown on crime. When Mr. Pineda and others were disqualified, that provided an opening for Mr. Arévalo, another outsider, even though his proposals to fight crime are more nuanced.Guatemalan candidates tried to capitalize on the support of young people.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesYoung voters shape elections.To a notable degree, the electoral outcomes in Ecuador and Guatemala hinged on the choices of young voters. In Ecuador, Mr. Noboa, 35, a businessman and newcomer to politics, was polling in the doldrums just a few weeks ago.But seizing on youth support while casting himself as an outsider, Mr. Noboa unexpectedly surged into the runoff with about 24 percent of the vote. (Name recognition may also have helped; his father, Álvaro Noboa, one of Ecuador’s richest men, ran unsuccessfully for president five times.)In Guatemala, Central America’s most populous country, Mr. Arévalo, 64, also capitalized on the support of young people, especially in cities, who were drawn to his calls to end the political persecution of human rights activists, environmentalists, journalists, prosecutors and judges.Mr. Arévalo also offered a more moderate stance on social issues. While saying he would not seek to legalize abortion or gay marriage, he made it clear that his government would not permit discrimination against people because of their sexual orientation.That position, which is somewhat novel in Guatemala, stood in sharp contrast to that of Ms. Torres, who drafted an evangelical pastor as her running mate and used an anti-gay slur on the campaign trail to refer to Mr. Arévalo’s supporters.Luisa González will head into a runoff against Daniel Noboa in Ecuador.Johanna Alarcón for The New York TimesThe left is going in different directions.Guatemala and Ecuador offered sharply contrasting visions for the left in Latin America.Indeed, within Guatemala’s traditionally conservative political landscape, Mr. Arévalo, who criticizes leftist governments like Nicaragua’s, is often described as a progressive. In that sense, he is more like Gabriel Boric, Chile’s moderate young president, than firebrands elsewhere in the region.Mr. Arévalo’s party, Movimiento Semilla (Seed Movement), which coalesced after anticorruption protests in 2015, is also unlike any other party in Guatemala in recent decades. Semilla gained attention for running a principled and austere campaign, making its funding sources clear, in contrast to the opaque financing prevailing in other parties. Another source of inspiration for Semilla is Uruguay’s Frente Amplio (Broad Front), a moderate, democratic left-of-center party.“Arévalo is a democrat through and through,” said Will Freeman, a fellow in Latin America studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.Ms. González, by contrast, hails from a different part of the Latin American left, characterized in Ecuador’s case by testing democratic checks and balances, Mr. Freeman said. She is a supporter of Rafael Correa, a former Ecuadorean president who remains a dominant force in the country’s politics despite being out of power for six years.Mr. Correa, who lives in Belgium after fleeing an eight-year prison sentence for campaign-finance violations, retains a strong base that oscillates between 20 percent and 30 percent of the electorate.That support is largely a result of the “nostalgia for that moment of well-being that existed during the Correa era,” said Caroline Ávila, a political analyst in Ecuador.Mr. Arévalo got more votes than any other candidate in Guatemala since democracy was restored in the country in 1985.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesUnpredictability underlined the races.The races in both Ecuador and Guatemala highlighted a wider regional trend: the uncertainty and volatility of Latin America’s politics.Polls in both countries failed to capture crucial developments. In Ecuador, where Mr. Topic was seen capitalizing on the aftermath of the Villavicencio assassination, Mr. Noboa swooped in to make it to the runoff.And in Guatemala, Mr. Arévalo, a professorial candidate who sometimes reads his speeches and lacks the oratory skills of his rivals, was viewed as nonthreatening by the establishment — until he squeaked into the runoff.Now, with his landslide win, Mr. Arévalo got more votes than any other candidate since democracy was restored in Guatemala in 1985.That’s a scenario that even many within Mr. Arévalo’s own party did not see coming.Simon Romero More

    • 63 Shares189 Views

      in Elections

      Ecuador Elections Move to Runoff

      by

      Luisa González and Daniel Noboa were poised to be the top candidates of Sunday’s election in a country where declining security has been the leading issue for most voters.An establishment leftist and a newcomer businessman appeared to capture the top two spots in Ecuador’s presidential election on Sunday in a campaign cycle that has centered on voters’ frustration with the country’s soaring gang and drug cartel violence.Luisa González, who was backed by a former socialist president, and the political outsider Daniel Noboa received the highest percentage of ballots with 84 percent of the vote counted. They will compete in a runoff election on Oct. 15.The economy and security are likely to be the leading issues going into the runoff, as local prison and street gangs, along with foreign drug mafias, have unleashed a wave of violence unlike anything in the country’s recent history, sending homicide rates to record levels and hurting the vital tourism industry.Concerns over the declining security were amplified earlier this month when the presidential candidate Fernando Villavicencio was assassinated on the campaign trail.Ms. González led the election, garnering 33 percent of the vote, with 84 percent counted, followed by Mr. Noboa, the unexpected second-place winner with 24 percent. Just a few weeks ago, Mr. Noboa was polling in single digits.Full official results were expected later on Sunday night.Ecuador also voted on Sunday to halt drilling in one of the most biodiverse corners of the Amazon in a victory for a decade-long fight by environmental activists to get the binding referendum in front of voters.Sunday’s first-round vote followed President Guillermo Lasso’s call for snap elections in May amid impeachment proceedings against him over accusations of embezzlement, as well as rising voter dissatisfaction over the nation’s security crisis.Ecuador, a country of 18 million, was once a tranquil haven compared with its neighbor Colombia, which for decades was ravaged by violence by armed guerrilla and paramilitary groups and drug cartels. As that changed in the past few years after Colombia forged a peace deal, the narco-trafficking industry grew increasingly powerful in Ecuador.Ms. González led the election, garnering 33 percent of the vote in early counting.Karen Toro/ReutersAmid news reports regularly featuring beheadings, car bombs, police assassinations, young men hanging from bridges and children gunned down outside their homes and schools, Ecuadoreans are hoping for new leadership that can restore the peaceful existence they once took for granted.The González-Noboa matchup means that “there’s still a strong, loyal base for Correísmo that’s enough to get González into the runoff,” said Risa Grais-Targow, the Latin America director for Eurasia Group, referring to the leftist movement of former President Rafael Correa, who governed from 2007 to 2017.But, she said, “there’s a large share of the population that really wants something completely different — they want a new face.”The surprise of the night was the second-place victory for Mr. Noboa, who was recently polling toward the bottom of the pool of eight candidates.“The youth opted for the Daniel Noboa option,” said Mr. Noboa in a news conference Sunday night. “It would not be the first time that a new proposal would turn around the electoral establishment,” he added, referring to himself.The 35-year-old comes from one of the richest families in Latin America, known to most Ecuadoreans for its banana empire. His father ran for president five times, unsuccessfully, but the younger Noboa’s political career goes back only to 2021, when he was elected to Ecuador’s Congress.“He has a voting base that is familiar with the Noboa brand, with the Noboa name, and that now has been very successfully energized, refreshed with a new face,” said Caroline Ávila, an Ecuadorean political analyst. “He captures the attention of young people, the main mass of undecided voters. They are the ones who are putting him in the second round.”Mr. Noboa’s campaign seemed to take off only a week ago, when he impressed many Ecuadoreans with his debate performance.“He stands out in the debate,” Ms. Ávila said. “He speaks well, he speaks fluently, without complicating himself too much, without fighting. And it has generated a lot of interest in these post-debate weeks.”As a legislator and member of the National Democratic Action Movement, Mr. Noboa supported bills to attract international investment and cut taxes, said Grace Jaramillo, an Ecuadorean professor of political science at the University of British Columbia.His policy proposals include pledges to create jobs, lower taxes, lower electricity bills and enter into more international free trade agreements.Daniel Noboa, a political outsider, was the unexpected second-place winner on Sunday.Dolores Ochoa/Associated Press“It’s a big surprise, especially in the fact that the debate did have an effect,” said Arturo Moscoso, Quito-based political scientist. But he added, “For many Ecuadoreans he is an unknown.”Mr. Noboa positioned himself as “the employment president,” even including an employment request form on his website, among other broad commitments to security and the economy. As a businessman and U.S. citizen who grew up in the United States, he is likely to favor American market-friendly interests, said Ms. Grais-Targow.While analysts predicted security to be the main issue in the election following the assassination, Mr. Noboa’s success shows that in a country where just 34 percent of Ecuadoreans have adequate employment, according to government data, the economy is still top of mind.One voter, Carlos Andrés Eras, 31, said he supported Mr. Noboa because he saw him as a well-prepared politician with clear proposals.“It is not improvised; he has been putting together his political project little by little,” said Mr. Eras, who owns a jewelry store in Guayaquil. “He concentrated on giving his points and answered what was raised in the question without attacking anyone.”Mr. Noboa came in just behind the leftist establishment candidate, Ms. González.Backed by the powerful party of Mr. Correa, the former president, Ms. González, 45, has appealed to voter nostalgia for the economic and security situation under the Correa administration, when homicide rates were low and a commodities boom helped lift millions out of poverty.“It is the first time in the history of Ecuador that a woman has obtained such a high percentage in the first round,” said Ms. González in her postelection speech. “We are going to have that homeland again with hope, with dignity, with security.”A soldier guarding a polling station in Quito, Ecuador, on Sunday.Carlos Noriega/Associated PressGermán Montoya, a voter and the owner of a plastic company in Guayaquil, Ecuador’s largest city, said extortion payments demanded by gangs were hurting his business and had pushed him to vote for Ms. González.“‘Mr. Montoya, I can’t go there, here, because they charge me a toll,’” he said his employees tell him. The trucks are charged $50 to make deliveries in different parts of Guayaquil, Mr. Montoya, 37, said.Jordy Gonzales, a 23-year-old construction worker, felt similarly. Mr. Correa’s party, he said, “did things right, and we are going to see if this time, if God allows it, it will be like before.”If Ms. González wins the election in October, it will show the staying power of Mr. Correa as a dominant political force in Ecuador despite being out of power for six years.He has lived in Belgium since he left office, fleeing an eight-year prison sentence for campaign-finance violations. But experts predict that in the event of a González victory, he would be likely to return to the country and try to seek office again before the next president’s tenure expires in May 2025.Beyond Sunday’s presidential election, Ecuadoreans also voted to end drilling in the Amazon, dealing a major blow to the government, which had been lobbying to continue oil operations.The section of jungle on the ballot, part of Yasuní National Park, is one of the most ecologically rich places on Earth and home to Indigenous people who want no contact with outsiders.The state oil company, Petroecuador, will have roughly a year and a half to wind up its operations in the area, though experts say shutting down the oil field could take six to 10 years.According to Andrés Martínez Moscoso, a law professor at the San Francisco de Quito University, neither the president, Congress nor a new referendum can undo Sunday’s results.The decision is “a very clear signal, especially to the international community, of the population’s desire to turn this extractive economy around,” said Ms. Ávila. It would also force future governments to think of “other ways of generating income that are not exclusively from oil.”Genevieve Glatsky More

    • 138 Shares99 Views

      in Elections

      Elecciones en Ecuador: Luisa González y Daniel Noboa a segunda vuelta

      by

      La candidata de la izquierda tradicional y un empresario relativamente nuevo en la política fueron los más votados en los comicios del domingo.Una candidata de la izquierda tradicional y un empresario neófito en la política parecen ser los dos candidatos más votados en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales de Ecuador del domingo. Este ciclo electoral se ha centrado en la frustración de los votantes con la creciente violencia de las bandas y los carteles de la droga en el país.Luisa González, quien fue respaldada por un expresidente socialista, y el candidato outsider Daniel Noboa recibieron el mayor porcentaje de votos con el 84 por ciento de las actas escrutadas. Se enfrentarán en una segunda vuelta electoral el 15 de octubre.Todo parece indicar que la economía y la seguridad serán los temas principales de cara a la segunda vuelta, en un momento en el que bandas callejeras y de prisiones locales, junto con las mafias de la droga extranjeras, han desatado una ola de violencia inédita en la historia reciente del país, lo que ha incrementado las tasas de homicidio a niveles récord,afectando a la industria del turismo, un sector vital.Las preocupaciones por el aumento de la inseguridad se intensificaron a principios de este mes, cuando el candidato presidencial Fernando Villavicencio fue asesinado en plena campaña electoral.González lideró la votación, obteniendo el 33 por ciento de los votos, con el 84 por ciento de las actas escrutadas, seguida de Noboa, el inesperado segundo lugar, quien obtuvo el 24 por ciento. Hace solo unas semanas, Noboa aparecía con porcentajes de una sola cifra de respaldo en los sondeos.Los resultados oficiales completos se esperaban más tarde el domingo por la noche.Ecuador también votó el domingo para detener la extracción de petróleo en uno de los rincones con mayor biodiversidad de la Amazonía, una victoria de una década de esfuerzos de un grupo de activistas ambientales para hacer que una consulta popular fuera presentada a los votantes.La primera vuelta electoral del domingo respondió a la convocatoria a elecciones anticipadas que hizo en mayo el presidente Guillermo Lasso en medio de un proceso de destitución en su contra por acusaciones de malversación de fondos y a la creciente insatisfacción de los votantes por la crisis de seguridad nacional.Ecuador —un país de 18 millones de habitantes— solía ser un remanso de tranquilidad en comparación con la vecina Colombia, que durante décadas fue devastada por la violencia de grupos guerrilleros y paramilitares armados y carteles de la droga. A medida que eso cambió en los últimos años después de que Colombia forjara un acuerdo de paz, la industria del narcotráfico se volvió cada vez más poderosa en Ecuador.González lideró en los comicios con 33 por ciento de los votos en los primeros conteos.Karen Toro/ReutersEntre noticias que regularmente presentan decapitaciones, coches bomba, asesinatos de policías, jóvenes colgados de puentes y niños asesinados a tiros fuera de sus hogares y escuelas, los ecuatorianos esperan un nuevo liderazgo que pueda restaurar la convivencia pacífica que alguna vez dieron por sentado.Estos resultados que favorecieron a González y Noboa demuestran que “todavía existe una base fuerte y leal al correísmo suficiente como para hacer avanzar a González a la segunda vuelta”, dijo Risa Grais-Targow, directora para América Latina de Eurasia Group, un instituto de investigación, refiriéndose al movimiento de izquierda del expresidente Rafael Correa, quien gobernó de 2007 a 2017.Sin embargo, dijo que “existe una gran parte de la población que en realidad quiere algo completamente diferente. Quieren un nuevo rostro”.El segundo lugar, obtenido por Noboa, fue la sorpresa de la noche, ya que hasta hace solo unas semana las encuestas lo ubicaban en el fondo del grupo de ocho candidatos.“La juventud optó por la opción de Daniel Noboa”, dijo Noboa en una conferencia de prensa el domingo por la noche. “No sería la primera vez que una nueva propuesta le dé la vuelta al establishment electoral”, agregó, refiriéndose a sí mismo.El empresario de 35 años proviene de una de las familias más ricas de América Latina, conocida por la mayoría de los ecuatorianos por su imperio bananero. Su padre se postuló sin éxito cinco veces a la presidencia, pero la carrera política del joven Noboa apenas se remonta a 2021, cuando fue elegido para la Asamblea Nacional de Ecuador.“Tiene una votación que está familiarizada con la marca Noboa, con el apellido Noboa y que ahora ha sido muy exitosamente energizado, refrescado además con un rostro nuevo”, dijo Caroline Ávila, analista política ecuatoriana. “Captura la atención de los jóvenes, principal masa de votantes indecisos. Son ellos quienes le están colocando en la segunda vuelta”.Al parecer, la campaña de Noboa logró despegar apenas el domingo pasado, cuando impresionó a muchos ecuatorianos con su participación en el debate.“Descolla en el debate. Habla bien, habla de corrido, sin complicarse mucho, sin pelear”, dijo Ávila, la analista política. “Y ha generado mucho interés en estas semanas posdebate”.Como asambleísta y miembro del movimiento político Acción Democrática Nacional, Noboa respaldó leyes para atraer inversión internacional y reducir impuestos, afirmó Grace Jaramillo, profesora ecuatoriana de politología en la Universidad de Columbia Británica.​​Sus propuestas incluyen compromisos para crear empleos, reducir los impuestos, disminuir las tarifas eléctricas e impulsar más tratados internacionales de libre comercio.Daniel Noboa, un outsider político, obtuvo el inesperado segundo lugar el domingo.Dolores Ochoa/Associated Press“Es una gran sorpresa, sobre todo en el hecho de que el debate sí tuvo efectos”, dijo Arturo Moscoso, un politólogo radicado en Quito. Pero, agregó: “Para muchos ecuatorianos es una incógnita”.Noboa se presentó como el “presidente de empleo”, e incluso incluyó un formulario de solicitud de empleo en su página web, entre otras promesas más generales sobre la seguridad y la economía. Debido a que es empresario y un ciudadano estadounidense que creció en Estados Unidos, es muy probable que sea receptivo con los intereses favorables al mercado estadounidense, afirmó Grais-Targow.Aunque los analistas predecían que la seguridad sería el tema más importante en la elección tras el asesinato, el éxito de Noboa muestra que en un país donde solo el 34 por ciento de los ecuatorianos tiene un empleo adecuado, según información del gobierno, la economía sigue siendo un tema crucial.Carlos Andrés Eras, de 31 años, dijo que había votado por Noboa porque lo veía como un político bien preparado con propuestas claras.“No es un improvisado, el proyecto como político lo ha ido armando poco a poco”, dijo Eras, quien es dueño de una joyería en Guayaquil. “Se concentró en dar sus puntos y respondía lo que se planteaba en la pregunta sin atacar a nadie”.Noboa quedó en segundo lugar, muy cerca de la candidata de la izquierda tradicional, González.Respaldada por el poderoso partido de Correa, el expresidente, González, de 45 años, ha apelado a la nostalgia de los votantes por la situación económica y de seguridad bajo el gobierno de Correa, cuando las tasas de homicidios eran bajas y el auge de las materias primas ayudó a sacar a millones de personas de la pobreza.“Es la primera vez en la historia del Ecuador que una mujer saca tan alto porcentaje en primera vuelta”, dijo González en su discurso poselectoral. “Vamos a volver a tener esa patria con esperanza, con dignidad, con seguridad”.Un soldado custodiando un lugar de votación en Quito, Ecuador, el domingo.Carlos Noriega/Associated PressGermán Montoya, votante y propietario de una empresa de plásticos en Guayaquil, la ciudad más grande de Ecuador, dijo que los pagos de extorsión que exigen las bandas estaban perjudicando su negocio y lo habían empujado a votar por González.“‘Señor Montoya, no puedo ir para acá, para allá, porque me cobran un peaje’”, contó que le dicen sus empleados. A los camiones les cobran 50 dólares para hacer entregas en distintos lugares de Guayaquil, dijo Montoya, de 37 años.Jordy Gonzales, un albañil de 23 años, sentía algo similar. El partido de Correa, dijo, “hizo las cosas bien, y vamos a ver si esta vez, si Dios lo permite, vuelva a ser como antes”.Si González gana las elecciones en octubre, demostrará el poder de permanencia de Correa como una fuerza política dominante en Ecuador a pesar de haber estado fuera durante seis años.Correa ha vivido en Bélgica desde que dejó el cargo, huyendo de una sentencia de prisión de ocho años por violaciones al financiamiento de campañas. Sin embargo, los expertos predicen que, en caso de una victoria de González, probablemente regresaría al país y trataría de buscar la presidencia nuevamente cuando expire el próximo mandato presidencial en mayo de 2025.Ecuador también votó a favor de detener la extracción petrolera en uno de los rincones más biodiversos de la Amazonía, lo que significa un golpe para el gobierno, que había estado impulsando las operaciones petroleras. La zona de la selva incluida en la votación, la cual forma parte del Parque Nacional Yasuní, es uno de los lugares con más riqueza ecológica en el planeta y alberga comunidades indígenas que no desean contacto con extraños.La compañía estatal petrolera, Petroecuador, tendrá aproximadamente un año y medio para clausurar sus operaciones en la zona, aunque los expertos consideran que cerrar el campo petrolífero podría demorar de seis a 10 años. Según Andrés Martínez Moscoso, profesor de derecho en la Universidad San Francisco de Quito, ni el presidente, ni la Asamblea Nacional ni una nueva consulta popular pueden revertir los resultados del domingo.Según Caroline Ávila, analista política ecuatoriana, la decisión significaría “una señal muy clara, sobre todo a la comunidad internacional del deseo de la población de darle un giro a esta economía extractivista”. También obligará a futuros gobiernos “a pensar otros espacios, otras formas de generar ingresos que no sean exclusivamente del petróleo”.Genevieve Glatsky More

    • 150 Shares199 Views

      in Elections

      Georgia Case Against Young Thug Hints at How Trump Case Could Unfold

      by

      The racketeering case against Young Thug has been marked by a plodding pace, an avalanche of pretrial defense motions and pressure on lower-level defendants to plead guilty.On its face, the criminal case accusing former President Donald J. Trump and 18 of his allies of conspiring to overturn his 2020 election loss in Georgia has little in common with the other high-profile racketeering case now underway in the same Atlanta courthouse: that of the superstar rapper Young Thug and his associates.But the 15-month-old gang case against Young Thug — which, like the Trump case, is being prosecuted by Fani T. Willis, the Fulton County district attorney — offers glimpses of how State of Georgia v. Donald John Trump et al. may unfold: with a plodding pace, an avalanche of pretrial defense motions, extraordinary security measures, pressure on lower-level defendants to plead guilty, and a fracturing into separate trials, to name a few.Young Thug, whose real name is Jeffery Williams, was indicted in May 2022 along with 27 others under Georgia’s Racketeer Influenced and Corrupt Organizations statute, known as RICO. Like Mr. Trump’s RICO indictment, the charging papers described a corrupt “enterprise” whose members shared common illegal goals.Prosecutors claim that Mr. Williams is a founder of Young Slime Life, or YSL, a criminal street gang whose members were responsible for murders and other violence, drug dealing and property crimes, with the purpose of illegally obtaining “money and property.” (The defendants say YSL is simply a record label.)But the case against Mr. Williams has been whittled to eight defendants, from an initial 28. Some defendants have had their cases severed because they struggled to find lawyers or were fugitives from justice, among other reasons. As is common in big racketeering cases, others have accepted plea deals, making admissions along the way that could help prosecutors in their effort to convict the remaining defendants.After raucous courtroom outbursts from fans and a number of bizarre incidents — including alleged efforts to smuggle drugs into court — security has been ratcheted up, with members of the public and the news media barred from the courtroom.And remarkably, the case has been stuck in the jury selection phase since January, with many potential jurors claiming they would suffer hardships if forced to participate in a trial that was originally estimated to last six to 12 months. On Thursday morning, a young woman — one of more than 2,000 potential jurors to come through the courthouse doors — was grilled about her life, her future plans to pursue medical training and whether serving would present a hardship.Young Thug, whose real name is Jeffery Williams, was indicted in May 2022 along with 27 others under the state’s RICO law.Steve Schaefer/Atlanta Journal-Constitution via A.P.She said it would not. When asked if she knew of Young Thug, she said she did, and that she liked his music — which, she added, would make hearing the case “surreal,” although she also said she could be fair-minded.The YSL indictment is significantly more complex than the Trump case, describing nearly 200 criminal acts as part of a bloody gang war that played out for at least eight years in a city considered to be a hotbed of music industry innovation. The authorities have said that a crosstown rivalry between YSL and a gang called YFN was exacerbated in 2015 with the murder of Donovan Thomas, a behind-the-scenes connector instrumental in several rap careers.In the aftermath of the killing, the authorities say, many in the city picked sides as retaliatory shootings spilled across Atlanta.It is a world far removed from White House meetings and voting software. But experts say the Trump case, with its own famous lead defendant and sprawling nature, could encounter some similar complications.In Mr. Trump’s indictment, prosecutors also outlined a “criminal organization,” made up of power players like Mark Meadows, the former White House chief of staff, and Rudolph W. Giuliani, Mr. Trump’s former personal lawyer, and obscure Trump supporters like Scott Hall, an Atlanta bail bondsman who was charged with helping to carry out a data breach at a rural Georgia elections office.The Trump team’s shared goal, according to the indictment, was “to unlawfully change the outcome” of Georgia’s 2020 presidential election in Mr. Trump’s favor.Ms. Willis, a veteran prosecutor, has said she appreciates the way that RICO indictments allow for the telling of big, broad, easily digestible stories. Both the YSL and Trump indictments paint pictures of multifaceted “organizations,” showing how the defendants are connected and what they are accused of, which are described across dozens of pages as “acts in furtherance of the conspiracy.”These acts include both discernible criminal activity — like murder and aggravated assault in the YSL case and “false statements and writings” and “conspiracy to defraud the state” in the Trump case. But they also include noncriminal “overt acts” meant to further the goal of the conspiracy.Ms. Willis’s office has proposed that the Trump trial begin in March.Amir Hamja/The New York TimesIn the YSL indictment, the “overt acts” include Mr. Williams’s performing rap songs with violent lyrics — a legal strategy that has set off a heated debate about free speech and whether hip-hop, a quintessentially Black art form, is the target of racist scapegoating. Last year, Mr. Williams’s defense team filed a motion seeking to exclude the lyrics from the case, but the judge has yet to rule on it.Chris Timmons, a trial lawyer and former Georgia prosecutor, said he expected a similar free speech fight to erupt, at least in court, over Mr. Trump’s Twitter posts. Mentions of tweets he posted in the months after the 2020 election pepper the 98-page indictment as it describes efforts in Washington to set up bogus pro-Trump electors in Georgia and other states, to cajole legislators in those states to accept them, and to pressure Mike Pence, then the vice president, to throw a wrench in the final Electoral College vote.Some of the tweets in the indictment might seem rather bland in a different context. “Georgia hearings now on @OANN. Amazing!” Mr. Trump tweeted on Dec. 3, 2020 — a month after Election Day — referring to a far-right TV network’s airing of a state legislative hearing in which his supporters made a number of untrue allegations about election fraud.In other instances, Mr. Trump tweeted outright lies about election fraud. “People in Georgia got caught cold bringing in massive numbers of ballots and putting them in ‘voting’ machines,” he posted in December 2020.Mr. Timmons said he expected Mr. Trump’s lawyers to try to throw out his Twitter posts, as well as a recording of a call that the former president made to Brad Raffensperger, Georgia’s secretary of state, on free speech grounds.“They’re going to try to suppress the recording of the phone call, and probably try to suppress any tweets that were sent, and any text messages, anything along those lines, as violative of the First Amendment of the United States Constitution,” he said.In another parallel with the YSL case, the Trump case is almost certain to see multiple pretrial motions from a bumper crop of defense lawyers. One defendant, Mr. Meadows, has already filed a motion to move the case to federal court.Both Mr. Trump and Jeffrey Clark, a former Justice Department official who is among the defendants, may also file for removal, which would broaden the jury pool beyond liberal Fulton County into more Trump-friendly areas.Harvey Silverglate, a lawyer representing John Eastman, a defendant in the Trump case charged with helping to plan the bogus elector scheme, said this week that he expected a number of defendants to try to sever their cases.“Bringing in that many defendants and that many counts is an unmanageable criminal case,” he said, referring to the fact that each defendant is charged with racketeering and at least one of 40 other criminal charges.Mr. Silverglate, who said his client was innocent, added, “This is a case that wouldn’t reach trial in two years.”Ms. Willis’s office has proposed that the Trump trial begin in March, but the chances of that happening seem vanishingly slim. Mr. Meadows’s removal effort alone is likely to trigger a federal appeal, a process that could take months to resolve.While dragging out a case can hurt the prosecution, as witnesses forget or even die, the mere prospect of a multiyear legal ordeal can help convince some defendants to take a plea, as probably happened in the YSL case.Mr. Timmons, who tried numerous RICO cases, said that prosecutors often hoped to secure pleas from the lower-level players and work up toward the defendant at the top of the list, who is often the most prominent or powerful among them.“Your goal is to roll that up like a carpet, working at the bottom and working your way to the top,” he said.The Trump case may prove different from the YSL case in that rappers’ careers might survive a guilty plea (unless they are deemed snitches), while lawyers convicted of felonies lose their licenses — and there are numerous lawyers on the Trump indictment. Those lawyers may choose to hang on and fight an epic legal battle with Ms. Willis, a formidable prosecutor who has been trying RICO cases for years.Mr. Trump is running for re-election while facing indictments in Florida, New York and Washington, D.C., as well as in Georgia. If he is concerned about how his legal troubles could affect his popularity, he might find hope in the fact that Mr. Williams released his latest album while in custody, and saw it debut at the top of a Billboard chart this summer. More

    • 125 Shares179 Views

      in Elections

      ‘The Holly’ Review: The Tragic Case of a Denver Activist

      by

      Julian Rubinstein’s investigative documentary traces the engrossing case of a Denver community organizer, Terrance Roberts, who faced charges of attempted murderAt the point where Julian Rubinstein’s investigative documentary “The Holly” begins, an entire biopic’s worth of drama has already happened. After years in gangs and prison, Terrance Roberts became an activist and founded a successful youth program to rejuvenate a troubled Denver neighborhood known as the Holly. Then, in 2013, while organizing a peace rally in the area, he shot a gang member he knew, and was arrested and charged with attempted murder.The film portrays Roberts’s turmoil as the 2015 trial approached, and sorts through a paranoia-inducing churn of local police crackdowns, gang activity and general controversy. Roberts prepares a self-defense plea, but vents about further blowback after he speaks out against the back channels between law enforcement and gangs.Dangling speculations in voice-over, Rubinstein at times suggests a lower-key, adenoidal Nick Broomfield as he taps his surprisingly outspoken sources: amiable former gang members, the flamboyant Rev. Lee Kelly (who takes over as a neighborhood liaison after Roberts) and Roberts’s supportive father, also a reverend.Roberts emerges as a Shakespearean figure of forceful magnetism who fights mightily against being viewed as a walking metaphor for the Holly’s struggles. His fearlessness is both heroic and tragic, though Rubinstein’s sometimes foggy explanations of community politics make the film feel as if it might vanish into the night at any moment. (The director, a journalist, partly shot the movie while writing a more detailed book with the same title.)It’s all a heady brew that leaves one wanting to know even more about Roberts, who is now running for mayor in Denver. The movie resists encapsulating him, or perhaps he escapes its director’s full understanding.The HollyNot rated. Running time: 1 hour 43 minutes. In theaters and available to rent or buy on most major streaming platforms. More