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    From Believers to Bitcoin: 24 Hours in Trump’s Code-Switching Campaign

    When Donald J. Trump tries to win over a crowd that is not inherently his own, the results can be awkward.In a matter of just 24 hours this weekend, Donald J. Trump traversed two very different worlds, neither one of them his own.On Friday night, he appeared before religious leaders in West Palm Beach, Fla. The next afternoon, he was in Nashville, yukking it up with thousands of crypto-evangelists at a Bitcoin conference.The two groups could hardly be less alike, and Mr. Trump — neither a pious man, nor technologically savvy one — made for an unlikely champion at each. And yet, taken together, the two appearances provided a case study in how he code switches — from Christianity to crypto — as he campaigns.He begs, he blusters, he makes outlandish promises. And his attempts to win over a crowd that is not inherently his own can be acutely awkward.On Friday, he spoke at the Believers Summit, a religious conference put on by Charlie Kirk, the founder of Turning Point USA, a conservative activist group. It was a slickly produced affair befitting the Southern televangelists and hundreds of pastors and ministry heads who turned up for it.In this setting, martyrdom was the motif, and Mr. Trump leaned into it, hard. (“I took a bullet for democracy,” he said at one point.)We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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    The big themes in 2024: elections, antitrust and shadow banking.

    From elections and A.I. to antitrust and shadow banking, here are the big themes that could define the worlds of business and policy.What we’re watching in 2024 Andrew here. As we look ahead to the new year, the DealBook team has identified about a dozen themes that are likely to become running narratives that could define the business and policy ecosystem for the next 12 months.Of course, the presidential election, perhaps one of the most polarizing in history, is going to infect every part of the business world. Watch out for which C.E.O.s and other financiers back candidates — and, importantly, which ones go silent — and how companies deal with outspoken employees. Also: Look for some wealthy executives to avoid giving directly to candidates but instead donate to PACs as a shield, of sorts, from public scrutiny.Another story line that will probably remain part of the water cooler — er, Slack and X — conversation in business is the backlash against environmental, social and corporate governance principles, or E.S.G. This fight has manifested itself into a political battle and increasingly found its way in the past year into a debate about free speech on campuses (another theme that isn’t going away).Here’s a bit more detail on what we’re looking out for this year.The U.S. presidential election. The race seems set to come down to a rerun of 2020, with Donald Trump leading opinion polls to be the Republican candidate despite his mounting legal battles. The big question is how business leaders will respond. Will they coalesce around (and direct their money to) an anyone-but-Trump candidate? Nikki Haley, the former governor of South Carolina, is leading that race, but she has a long way to go to catch up to Trump. President Biden, who has made a series of consequential decisions on the economy, hopes voters will start to feel an economic upswing to reverse his sagging poll ratings.Private credit could be hit by a wave of defaults. Just as 1980s-style leveraged buyouts have been rechristened “private equity,” so too has “shadow banking” been rebranded as “private credit” and “direct lending” in time for the business to reach its highest levels yet. Direct lending by investment firms and hedge funds has become a $1.5 trillion titan, with scores of companies turning to the likes of Apollo and Ares for loans instead of, say, JPMorgan Chase.But the industry may face a test in 2024: Indebted borrowers, facing looming debt maturities and high interest rates, already are turning to private credit for yet more loans, raising concerns that lenders could face a wave of defaulting clients. A string of failures could hit these lenders hard, skeptics fear — leaving pension funds, insurers and other backers of private credit funds holding the bag.Paramount Pictures may be sold, a move that could be the start of a year of media deal-making.Hunter Kerhart for The New York TimesMedia deal mania? Reports that David Zaslav, the C.E.O. of Warner Bros. Discovery, held talks last month about a potential merger with Paramount set off a wave of speculation that 2024 would be a year of media consolidation. The industry has been transformed in recent years by the growth of streaming, changes in the way people consume media and big tech’s encroachment into sectors typically dominated by old-school media companies. Now, the industry is on the cusp of the next major shift with the rise of artificial intelligence.One date to put in your diary: April 8, 2024, the two-year anniversary of the merger of Warner Media and Discovery to create Warner Bros. Discovery — and the first day that the new company can be sold without risking a big tax bill.Will unions maintain their momentum? Organized labor had a banner year in 2023, with big wins in fights with Hollywood studios and the auto industry. Whether that signals a permanent turnaround for the labor movement is up for debate. But the election most likely will be a key factor. Both Biden and Trump tried to woo striking autoworkers this year, so expect more efforts to win over blue-collar voters.Middle East money will keep flowing. Tensions with China and economic sanctions have made it increasingly difficult for companies to raise money from a place that used to be top of the list. Middle Eastern investors have picked up the slack. Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar and others are spending money as they look to diversify their fossil fuel-dependent economies. The sectors are wide-ranging, including sports, tech companies, luxury, retail and media. Critics say the petrostates with dubious human rights records are trying to launder their reputations, but that hasn’t stopped Western business from seeking their lucre.One trend to watch: the growing ties between China and Middle Eastern money. Beijing is trying to deepen links with countries outside of Washington’s orbit or, at least, with those willing to play both sides.Lina Khan, the chair of the F.T.C., will keep challenging big deals despite losing some legal fights in 2023.Haiyun Jiang for The New York TimesMore antitrust fights. A tough year for regulators — like Lina Khan at the F.T.C. and Jonathan Kanter of the Justice Department — ended with two wins after both Illumina and Adobe called off multibillion-dollar takeovers in the face of government pressure. Enforcers could already claim some success by forcing deal makers to weigh whether a big deal is worth pursuing, given the potential risk that they might have to spend months in court defending it. Don’t expect Khan to ease the pressure; do expect more antitrust fights.New climate disclosure rules. Public companies have been bracing for years for new climate-related disclosure rules from the S.E.C. In 2021, the agency signaled that climate change would be one of its priorities. About a year later, Gary Gensler, the S.E.C. chair, proposed new rules. The most contentious aspect of the draft regulations was a requirement that large companies disclose greenhouse gasses emitted along their value chain. The new rules are set to be finalized in the spring. But the probable lawsuits could go all the way to the Supreme Court.Another election to watch: India’s. The world’s biggest democracy and a rising superpower, India will go to the polls in April and May. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is benefiting from the West’s search for a regional bulwark to counter China. Business is looking at opportunities in India, as companies work to diversify their supply chains and tap into a fast-growing economy. The election will also be a crucial early test of how A.I. can factor into the spread of (mis)information during an election.Workplace shake-up. In late 2022, the release of ChatGPT propelled A.I. into the public consciousness. In 2023, companies experimented with new ways to build the technology into their operations, but few had yet to overhaul their procedures to cope with it. It’s still not clear exactly what A.I. will mean for jobs, but in 2024 we may see more companies making decisions about its use in ways that will have consequences for workers.The other big topic workplaces are grappling with is the response to the war in Gaza. Some companies are already considering changes to their workplace diversity, equity and inclusion programs, and executives face some of the same pressures as university presidents when it comes to how to handle their statements and responses to incidents related to the war. More

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    FTX Founder Sam Bankman-Fried’s “House of Cards” Teeters

    Now under arrest, the fallen crypto mogul faces a barrage of charges, including defrauding investors out of billions.Sam Bankman-Fried faces multiple charges, including defrauding investors.Saul Loeb/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesS.B.F. in custody The spectacular rise and fall of Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the failed crypto exchange FTX, came full circle on Monday, with his arrest in the Bahamas at the request of U.S. authorities, followed by the S.E.C. filing its own charges on Tuesday.The Times reports that federal prosecutors in Manhattan, who are seeking his extradition, will charge Mr. Bankman-Fried with wire fraud, wire fraud conspiracy, securities fraud, securities fraud conspiracy and money laundering. A trial could start late next year.“Sam Bankman-Fried built a house of cards on a foundation of deception while telling investors that it was one of the safest buildings in crypto,” Gary Gensler, the S.E.C.’s chair, said in a statement. His agency has charged S.B.F., as the entrepreneur is known, with defrauding investors in FTX out of $1.8 billion, including $1.1 billion from U.S. entities. A big part of the fraud, it alleges, was keeping backers in the dark about “the undisclosed diversion of FTX customers’ funds” to the exchange’s trading affiliate, Alameda Research.The S.E.C. now asserts that S.B.F. was more involved in Alameda’s operations than he let on. In a major revelation, the agency says he directed $8 billion worth of customer deposits from an Alameda-controlled bank into a separate account, labeled “fiat @ftx.com,” in part to avoid getting charged interest, a move that could suggest intent. From the complaint:“In 2022, FTX began trying to separate Alameda’s portion of the liability in the “fiat @ftx.com” account from the portion that was attributable to FTX (i.e., to separate out customer deposits sent to Alameda-controlled bank accounts from deposits sent to FTX-controlled bank accounts). Alameda’s portion — which amounted to more than $8 billion in FTX customer assets that had been deposited into Alameda-controlled bank accounts — was initially moved to a different account in the FTX database. However, because this change caused FTX’s internal systems to automatically charge Alameda interest on the more than $8 billion liability, Bankman-Fried directed that the Alameda liability be moved to an account that would not be charged interest.”The arrest took many by surprise. S.B.F. had been scheduled to testify on Tuesday before the House Financial Services Committee. The committee’s Democratic chair, Representative Maxine Waters of California, didn’t see this coming: “The public has been waiting eagerly to get these answers under oath before Congress, and the timing of this arrest denies the public this opportunity,” she said. (S.B.F. himself also said he did not expect to be arrested.)“I have never seen a case approaching this scope proceed this quickly,” Renato Mariotti, a partner at Bryan Cave Leighton Paisner and a former federal prosecutor, told DealBook. Given FTX’s scale — with more than 100 companies based around the world — and the lengthy list of creditors, lawyers and extradition experts said the government had moved faster than expected.S.B.F.’s media tour may have played a role: While most executives under criminal investigation clam up, the crypto entrepreneur has spoken out over and over again. That may have pushed prosecutors to act fast, according to Mariotti, to avoid S.B.F. “muddying the waters” of a potential case through repeated assertions that he was misguided and had made mistakes.But has S.B.F. also admitted wrongdoing? On the Unusual Whales podcast on Monday, he initially denied knowing that customer funds had moved from FTX to Alameda without permission, but then professed less certainty: “Like I, like, kind of vaguely knew, kind of, sort of maybe, um, on a qualitative level what was going on.”What could have been: News outlets including Forbes have obtained S.B.F.’s written testimony for Tuesday. It sets the ground for his claim to have simply made mistakes by professing he messed up with a profanity — which he stresses he is using “formally, under oath” — in the first sentence.HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING The E.U. plans to tax imports based on carbon emissions. The bloc has reached an agreement meant both to protect European products made using fewer greenhouse-gas emissions and to effectively set an international price for carbon. It would also probably irritate trading partners.China begins a W.T.O. dispute over American chip export controls. Beijing accused the United States of trade protectionism by effectively blocking tech companies from selling advanced chips to China, hampering the Chinese tech industry. At the same time, Japan and the Netherlands are in talks to join the U.S. in tightening export controls on chipmaking machinery. More on Elon Musk’s Twitter TakeoverAn Established Pattern: Firing people. Talking of bankruptcy. Telling workers to be “hard core.” Twitter isn’t the first company that witnessed Elon Musk use those tactics.Rivals Emerge: Sensing an opportunity, new start-ups and other social platforms are racing to dethrone Twitter and capitalize on the chaos of its new ownership under Mr. Musk.The ‘Twitter Files’: Mr. Musk and Matt Taibbi, an independent journalist, set off an intense debate with a release of internal Twitter documents regarding a 2020 decision to restrict posts linking to a report in the New York Post about Hunter Biden.Hard Fork: The Times podcast looks at Mr. Musk’s two-day clash with Apple, which he had accused of trying to sabotage Twitter before saying the “misunderstanding” had been resolved.Congress scrambles to avert a government shutdown. Senator Chuck Schumer of New York, the Senate majority leader, proposed a one-week spending bill to give negotiators more time for a broader government spending deal. Without that, the federal government will begin partially shutting down this weekend.The former C.E.O. of Wirecard moves to suspend his criminal fraud trial. A lawyer for Markus Braun told a Munich court that prosecutors had ignored crucial evidence and relied on an untrustworthy witness. The move is aimed at forestalling one of Germany’s biggest-ever fraud trials; the court is expected to rule on the motion in the coming weeks.U.S. researchers are set to unveil a breakthrough in nuclear fusion. Scientists at the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory in California are expected to announce on Tuesday that they have successfully used lasers to achieve nuclear fusion whose output exceeded the input from the lasers. It’s a significant step toward making fusion a plausible energy source — someday.What FTX’s new C.E.O. will say about the exchange’s “utter failure” Even with Sam Bankman-Fried in custody, the House Financial Services Committee hearing into the collapse of FTX will go on as scheduled this morning, and its star witness will now be the exchange’s new C.E.O., John Ray III.Though Mr. Ray’s written testimony never calls FTX an outright fraud, the corporate restructuring expert will reiterate that he’s never seen “such an utter failure of corporate controls at every level of an organization.”Mr. Ray will detail eight “unacceptable management practices” that he believes led to the downfall of Bankman-Fried’s crypto empire. They include:Evidence that “customer assets from FTX.com were commingled with assets from the Alameda trading platform.”Alameda, FTX’s trading arm, being able to borrow funds held at the non-U.S. business unit, FTX.com, for its trading and investing “without any effective limits.”Shoddy recordkeeping and lax fiscal controls, including no audits and no documentation for “nearly 500 investments made with FTX Group funds and assets.”Evidence that loans and payments in excess of $1 billion were made to company insiders, and that the company went on a roughly $5 billion spending spree beginning in late 2021.Wall Street will be closely watching today’s inflation number U.S. futures have been edging higher on Tuesday and global stock markets are up ahead of a consequential Consumer Price Index report due out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern.An elevated C.P.I. would probably put the chill back into stock markets. If the inflation measure shows an annual rise above economists’ consensus estimate of a 7.3 percent, that could signal that the Fed’s interest-rate rises aren’t doing enough to slow the pace of inflation — and that more jumbo increases are needed. (Reminder: The Fed’s rate-decision day comes tomorrow.)A tepid C.P.I. could do the opposite. JPMorgan Chase traders have gamed out a few scenarios. They believe a reading of 6.9 percent would lead to a healthy rally in the S&P 500, with the benchmark index jumping 8 to 10 percent. They put the odds of such a low number at about one in 20.Central bankers and Wall Street pros have consistently forecast inflation wrong over the past year. In late 2021, many thought high inflation was a temporary phenomenon. It persisted. But then last month’s reading, which showed prices moderating, surprised many and triggered a rally in risky assets. “The inflation report is arguably the most uncertain of this week’s big macro event risks,” Alvin Tan, a foreign-exchange strategist at Royal Bank of Canada, said in an investor note on Tuesday.“The bet was that free money would last indefinitely, and there doesn’t seem to have been a risk-management game plan.” — Jon Burckett-St. Laurent, a senior portfolio manager at Exencial Wealth Advisors, on the financier Cathie Wood, who shot to prominence by investing heavily in money-losing tech companies. Wood’s flagship fund is trading at a five-year low as investors appear to have lost faith in her strategy.Twitter dissolves its trust and safety council Elon Musk has said that maintaining safety on Twitter is one of his highest priorities, and yet the social network just made a puzzling decision toward that end: On Monday night it disbanded an outside panel of experts that had advised it on matters of hate speech and safety.“Thank you,” began an email sent to members of the council — made up of civil rights groups, academics and others, formed in 2016 — an hour before they were to meet on Monday. The message said the group wasn’t “the best structure” to advise on product and policy any longer; it was signed “Twitter.”The dissolution of the board may have been inevitable, as three members had already quit last week over changes to Twitter’s content moderation. But it suggests Musk may ultimately centralize content policy in the interest of, as the email put it, “moving faster and more aggressively than ever before.”The move adds to critics’ worries that Twitter is becoming less safe. The advisers who quit last week cited the company relying more on automated content moderation: “It is clear from research evidence that, contrary to claims by Elon Musk, the safety and wellbeing of Twitter’s users are on the decline,” they wrote in their resignation statement.Meanwhile, Twitter’s former head of trust and safety, Yoel Roth, and his family reportedly went into hiding after Mr. Musk misrepresented his academic thesis about gay social networks online to falsely imply that it supported sexualizing children. (Professors who reviewed Mr. Roth’s thesis also received online abuse.)In other Elon Musk news:The Twitter account that shows the movements of Mr. Musk’s private jet has been “shadowbanned,” according to its owner.The $5.7 billion worth of Tesla shares that Mr. Musk donated to charity last year went to his personal charitable foundation.Mr. Musk has lost his crown as the world’s richest person, at least by one measure, to Bernard Arnault of LVMH.THE SPEED READ DealsThe private equity firm Thoma Bravo agreed to buy Coupa Software, which makes software to manage corporate expenses, for $8 billion, as it seeks to capitalize on declining valuations of tech companies. (FT)Speaking of which, Checkout.com, one of Europe’s biggest privately held tech companies, recently slashed its internal valuation by 72 percent, to $11 billion. (FT)Goldman Sachs reportedly plans to cut hundreds of retail banking jobs. (Bloomberg)Investors’ rush to withdraw from a big Blackstone real-estate fund may have broader fallout. (WSJ)PolicyThe Supreme Court rejected a bid by British American Tobacco to halt California’s ban on flavored tobacco products. (Bloomberg)Chinese authorities arrested 63 people whom they accused of laundering $1.7 billion with the crypto token Tether. (Insider)Hong Kong has lifted more of its bar and restaurant Covid restrictions, as China continues easing pandemic rules. (FT)Best of the restThe Wall Street Journal named Emma Tucker, the editor of London’s Sunday Times, to lead its newsroom, the first woman to hold that role. (NYT)“How Sexism Influenced Corporate Governance” (NYT)Amazon has delayed hiring college graduates to help cut costs. (FT)The back story on Taylor Swift choosing Searchlight, the art-house movie studio, over major streaming services for her debut as a feature-film director. (Puck)The hedge-fund mogul Ray Dalio and the director James Cameron are teaming up to make submarines for the ultrawealthy. (FT)We’d like your feedback! Please email thoughts and suggestions to dealbook@nytimes.com. More