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Why is the midterm vote count taking so long in some US states?
ExplainerWhy is the midterm vote count taking so long in some US states?Key races in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia – which could decide the makeup of Congress – are still undecided. Here’s why Two days after the US midterm elections, a sense of deja vu is descending over the country. In a replay of the excruciating events in 2020, when Joe Biden’s presidential victory was declared four days after the polls closed, Americans are yet again asking themselves why they have to wait so long for election results.US midterm elections 2022: Senate and House remain in balance as counting continues – liveRead moreLater in the week, it remained elusive which main party will control both chambers of Congress. In the Senate, Republicans hold 49 seats and the Democrats 48, with two states – Arizona and Nevada – not yet called, and Georgia headed to a runoff.In the House there are still more than 40 seats yet to be called, with at least a dozen of them highly competitive.So what is it about the US electoral system that makes counting votes apparently so tortuously slow?Where are counts still happening, and why?Responsibility for running fair and fast elections, like much of the way the country is governed, is devolved to each of the 50 states. How the count is done, and its speed, varies slightly between each state. (Election deniers have tried to imply that slow counts are somehow irregular or fraudulent. They are not.)The big picture here is that counts are taking extra time in races that are very close. News networks are hesitant to project winners because the margins between candidates are narrow and there are many ballots left to count – and so the need for patience may be justified.In this cycle, much of the heat is engulfing just three states: Arizona, Nevada and Georgia.What’s going on in Arizona?Several of the most consequential races are happening in the border state of Arizona. A US Senate contest between the Democratic incumbent Mark Kelly and Republican challenger Blake Masters could determine which party controls the Senate.There are also consequential state races, including for governor and secretary of state, in which prominent election deniers endorsed by Donald Trump have a shot at winning. So far only 70% of the Arizona vote has been counted.To understand why that is, you have to zoom in to Maricopa county, which covers the state capital, Phoenix. It contains 60% of all votes in Arizona and is the second largest voting jurisdiction in the nation.The number of people who vote early has increased dramatically since the pandemic. This year Maricopa county also saw a surge in the number of early ballots that were dropped off on election day – they are known as “late earlies” – rising to 290,000, the largest number in the state’s history and 100,000 more than in 2020.Each early ballot has to be verified to check that the voter’s signature matches the signature in the voter rolls, and after that is done it is sent to a bipartisan panel for approval and processing. That all takes time, as we are witnessing.Many people have drawn a comparison of Arizona’s vote count with that of Florida, which called its results within hours of polls closing on Tuesday. That state’s system allows election officials to begin counting mail-in ballots as soon as they are received; mail-in ballots have to be requested and must be received by an election supervisor no later than 7pm on election day. But the main reason why Ron DeSantis won his re-election race so quickly on Tuesday was because it was a blowout, with the incumbent Republican governor garnering 59% of the vote while his challenger, Charlie Crist, received only 40%.Had the candidates we are watching in Arizona or elsewhere had such a convincing lead, we would probably not still be waiting for their races to be called. Nonetheless, there are questions that Arizona is going to have to face in future elections.Stephen Richer, who is the recorder of Maricopa county, said that after the dust settles “we will likely want to have a policy conversation about which we value more: convenience of dropping off early ballots on election day or higher percentage of returns with 24 hours of election night”.What about Nevada?Nevada is going a bit faster than Arizona, with 83% of the votes counted, but this year the count could last through Sunday. But like in Phoenix, there are still large numbers of ballots yet to be processed in the big urban areas of Las Vegas and Reno.The state runs its elections largely through mail-in ballots, and that in itself bakes in time. For a mail-in ballot to be counted it has to be postmarked by election day, but the state now allows until four days after election day – 12 November – for the physical envelope to arrive.There is a debate to be had about the merits of such a system. Many election officials stress that it is more important to have a system that is convenient, accurate and accessible than one that is fast.The count in Nevada also has a lot riding on it. That includes a very close race between the sitting US senator Catherine Cortez Masto and Republican challenger Adam Laxalt; three tight contests for US House seats; and a battle involving one of the most visceral election deniers, Jim Marchant, who is running for the job of top election official.And Georgia?Georgia has completed its returns for its critical US Senate race, with the Democratic incumbent Raphael Warnock squeaking ahead of the Trump-endorsed former football star Herschel Walker. But this state runs a system whereby if neither candidate marshals more than 50% of the vote – which neither did – there has to be a runoff election. That feels like groundhog day too – we had to wait until the January after the 2020 election for two Georgia runoff contests to be called before we knew that the Democrats would control the Senate. At least Georgia has speeded up the process: the new voting law SB 202 has significantly shortened the period for this runoff, which will take place on 6 December.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022Postal votingArizonaNevadaGeorgiaUS politicsexplainersReuse this content More
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‘It Could Have Been Worse’ Never Felt This Good
Doesn’t it feel as if we’ve been watching the Senate race in Georgia since the War of 1812?It’s true that midterm vote-counting in general could go on forever. But the Democrats’ 50-50 control of the Senate might very well come down to Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker.No offense, Georgians, but we’re kinda tired of spending our political lives waiting to see what you do next. Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, seems to have gotten the most votes, but Georgia requires the winner to have more than 50 percent, and this year there’s a Libertarian candidate whose 2 percent showing made that nearly impossible.On to the Dec. 6 runoff. Meanwhile, your Thanksgiving dinner conversation can feature Walker’s sex scandals. Which have sort of distracted us from the fact that he knows close to nothing about public affairs. Or pretty much anything non-footballian. ( “What the heck is a pronoun?”)Now inquiring minds will also want to discuss the situation in the House, where the distinctly less athletic Republican Kevin McCarthy might get his dream of becoming the speaker.Yeah, once we get the votes all counted, Republicans may well have control, and McCarthy could spend the next two years investigating Hunter Biden. But at best he’d have a tiny majority, giving every one of his rank-and-file members outrageous sway. McCarthy’s nights would be haunted less by powerful Democrats than crazy Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene and Matt Gaetz.What do you think? If you’re not obsessed with Georgia, here’s another option for analyzing the midterm returns: We’ll call it W.W.M.T.N. That is, What Would Make Trump Nuts?So far on that front we have a pretty clean sweep. One of the biggest winners of the night was Ron DeSantis, the Republican governor of Florida, and possible presidential candidate in 2024. (Very, very possible, if you remember his blank stare at the camera when he was asked if he’d promise, if re-elected, to complete the next four-year term.)DeSantis certainly did win by a large margin, although you have to consider he was running against Charlie Crist, a former Republican and former independent who was Florida’s governor in between multitudinous, often-unsuccessful attempts to get elected to … something.Now, Donald Trump wants to change the subject by making what could be his running-for-president announcement next week.The timing is a sign of how miserable he is when he’s not the center of attention. As well as his all-purpose hatred for DeSantis, who he recently called DeSanctimonious. (Not actually the worst choice of an insult, given the fact that DeSantis released a campaign video in which God was mentioned more often than Florida.)Trump was pretty busy during campaign season, meeting and greeting folks at Mar-a-Lago and giving speeches, in which he occasionally managed to stop talking about himself long enough to mention the Republicans he was there to support.When it came to endorsements, our ex-president had a pretty clear idea of how important his blessing was: “I think if they win, I should get all the credit, and if they lose, I should not be blamed at all,” he said in an interview.He certainly hates hates hates to be connected with any of the week’s failures, like Mehmet Oz, who lost what was probably the biggest Senate race of the season to John Fetterman in Pennsylvania. “Trump is indeed furious,” tweeted our Maggie Haberman, “ … blaming everyone who advised him to back Oz, including his wife, describing it as ‘not her best decision,’ according to people close to him.”OK, folks. Think about people Melania Trump has decided to align herself with over the course of her life and tell me whether you think Dr. Oz was the worst selection.We’re not going to know the total, complete outcome of the elections for ages, but there’s already plenty to mull. For instance, Senator Chuck Grassley got re-elected in Iowa at the age of 89. He makes Joe Biden look like a spring chicken. Or at least an early-fall rooster. If the Republicans win the Senate, Grassley will be president pro tempore, third in line for the presidency. Biden will turn 80 this month, and second-in-line Nancy Pelosi is 82. I’m extremely happy to see age discrimination getting a whack, but gee whiz.What do you think is going to happen next on the political front? Well, you may finally be able to look through your texts and messages without stumbling over several dozen requests for campaign contributions. Although if you’re on Trump’s mailing list, things will just keep on coming.“Do you want President Trump to run in 2024?” demanded one of his many, many missives on Wednesday. Another began, unnecessarily, “If you want me to run in 2024,” then asked, “who should my Vice President be?”Hmm. How about Dr. Oz? He doesn’t seem to have anything else to do.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More
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Which Election Races Are Still Being Called, and When Will We Have Results?
Who will control the Senate and the House? Settle in for a long wait.For the second Election Day in a row, election night ends without a clear winner.It could be days until a party is projected to win the House of Representatives.It could be a month until we know the same for the Senate.Here’s the state of the race for both chambers and when — maybe, just maybe — we’ll know the outcome.The HouseRepublican control of the House was all but a foregone conclusion heading into Tuesday, but Democrats outran the polls and projections.Republicans will have to claw their way to a majority, seat by seat. The Needle suggests Republicans are likelier than not to win the House, but it is no certainty. As of 5 a.m. Wednesday, there was only enough information to have them projected to win 197 seats — 21 short of the 218 needed for a majority.They’re nowhere close to being called the winner in many of these races — in many of these states, late mail ballots have the potential to help Democrats. It will take days to count these ballots.Meanwhile, Democrats lead in another group of races where Republicans might wind up mounting a comeback.The SenateThe fight for control of the Senate will come down to four states: Wisconsin, Nevada, Georgia and Arizona.Wisconsin is the only one that could be resolved by early this morning. The Republican Ron Johnson led by just over one percentage point at 7 a.m. Eastern, with 94 percent of the vote counted. A handful of counties might still have a modest number of absentee ballots to report, which could let the Democratic challenger Mandela Barnes close some of the gap. Either way, the number of absentee ballots should be ascertained fairly quickly. They ought to be counted fairly quickly as well.On the other end of the spectrum is Georgia, which seems unlikely to be resolved before a Dec. 6 runoff election. A New York Times analysis of the results by precinct and state absentee files suggests that Senator Raphael Warnock (who leads) is unlikely to reach the 50 percent necessary to avoid the runoff, barring an unusual number of provisional or late mail ballots. Unlike in 2020, there weren’t many absentee ballot requests this year.If Wisconsin goes for Mr. Johnson and Georgia is stuck in runoff purgatory, there’s only one way for the Senate to be decided quickly: One party wins both Arizona and Nevada. It appears neither will do that soon.Of the two, Nevada is the clearer case. Still, the race is too close to call. The Republican Adam Laxalt leads the Democrat Catherine Cortez Masto by 2.7 percentage points at this hour, but most of the remaining vote is expected to be Democratic-leaning mail ballots and provisional ballots, including from same-day registrants.The Needle suggests a close race, but much remains uncertain, as the exact number of outstanding ballots is unclear. The turnout in the state appears fairly low, suggesting that a large number of ballots might remain. It is also unclear how long it will take to count them. Last time around, Joe Biden was projected to win only on Saturday, even though he won by a fairly comfortable two points and seemed poised to gain in the late ballots. At this point, such a clear path to victory seems unlikely for either candidate.The situation in Arizona is even less clear, but here there is at least a chance of a quick resolution. The Democrat Mark Kelly leads by six percentage points, 52 percent to 46 percent, with most of the Election Day and early votes counted. Most of the remaining vote is the mail ballots that were returned to the state near the election, including on Election Day, along with provisional ballots.These days, mail and provisional ballots are typically good for Democrats. But this is not a normal case. A large majority of voters cast ballots by mail in Arizona, so the mail ballots are not nearly as favorable toward Democrats. Instead, a strange pattern has emerged in recent years: Democrats mail in their ballots well ahead of the election, leaving Republicans to turn in their ballots near the election or simply prefer to vote in person. In 2020, Donald J. Trump won the ballots counted after Election Day by a wide margin here, turning a four-point lead for Mr. Biden at this hour in 2020 into a race won by less than a point.This time, the Republican Blake Masters will need to mount an even larger comeback — at least as measured in percentage point margin. It may seem daunting, but it may not be quite as challenging as it looks: There might be about twice as many outstanding mail ballots, as a share of all voters, as there were at this time in 2020.Mr. Kelly seemingly has a healthy lead from the early vote, but there is no hard evidence that a Masters victory is impossible. We’ll probably begin to get a sense of whether these mail ballots look like 2020’s mail votes as soon as today. More
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'Standing is what matters': Stacey Abrams concedes in Georgia – video
Democratic candidate Stacey Abrams conceded the gubernatorial race to Republican Brian Kemp in a rematch of Georgia’s close 2018 election, saying she ran for election to ‘fight to save Georgia’. ‘I may no longer be seeking the office of governor, but I will never stop doing everything in my power to ensure that the people of Georgia have a voice,’ she told her supporters.
Abrams, a former member of the Georgia House of Representatives, became a national Democratic figurehead after losing a hard-fought governor’s race to Kemp in 2018 by just 55,000 votes. Her voter registration efforts are credited with helping President Joe Biden win Georgia in 2020 and two Democrats capture the state’s US Senate seats in 2021Future of Congress hangs in balance as many races still too close to call
Marijuana, abortion, climate crisis: what was down the ballot in the midterm More - in Elections
Marjorie Taylor Greene Is Re-Elected in Georgia
Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene, whose racist and antisemitic conspiracy theories put her on the fringes of the Republican Party when she was first elected two years ago, was re-elected on Tuesday and is poised to play a more central role in the next Congress. The race was called by The Associated Press.Ms. Greene’s win in Georgia’s 14th Congressional District was never in question. The district is one of the most Republican in the country, and The Associated Press called the race for her over her Democratic opponent, Marcus Flowers, soon after the polls closed. But her growing status and clout, coupled with the likely election of similar candidates elsewhere in the country, reflects a broader transformation of the Republican Party.When Ms. Greene won the party’s nomination in 2020, it caused consternation among mainstream Republicans who did not want to be associated with her promotion of the QAnon movement and other far-right conspiracy theories. Among other things, she had suggested that the Sept. 11 attacks were a hoax; that wildfires had been caused by space lasers controlled by the Rothschilds, the banking family used as a metonym for Jews in antisemitic conspiracy theories; and that Democratic leaders should be executed.But, after initially trying to ignore her, Republicans rallied around Ms. Greene when House Democrats stripped her committee assignments. In her primary this year, she easily defeated a more moderate Republican. Far from being a pariah, she is an increasingly influential player in the House Republican caucus.In September, she stood directly behind Kevin McCarthy, the House minority leader, as he described the priorities of a future Republican majority. More
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The key races to watch in the 2022 US midterms
ExplainerThe key races to watch in the 2022 US midterms Control of the Senate could hang on results in a handful of states while votes for governor and secretary of state could affect the conduct of future elections
US midterm election results 2022: live
When will we know who won US midterm races — and what to expect
Arizona governor: Katie Hobbs (D) v Kari Lake (R)Hobbs is currently secretary of state in what used to be a Republican stronghold. Lake is a former TV news anchor who relishes sparring with the media and promoting Donald Trump’s false claim that the 2020 election was stolen. Victory for Lake – who has appeared with figures linked to QAnon on the campaign trail – would be a major boost for the former president and ominous for 2024.US midterms 2022: the key candidates who threaten democracyRead moreArizona secretary of state: Mark Finchem (R) v Adrian Fontes (D)Secretary of state elections have rarely made headlines in past midterms but this time they could be vital to the future of American democracy. The battle to become Arizona’s top election official pits Fontes, a lawyer and former marine, against Finchem, who falsely claims that voter fraud cost Trump the state in 2020 and who was at the US Capitol on January 6 2021.Arizona Senate: Mark Kelly (D) v Blake Masters (R)Kelly is a retired astronaut who became well known in the state when his wife, then-congresswoman Gabrielle Giffords, was shot and critically injured at an event in Tucson in 2011. Masters, a 36-year-old venture capitalist and associate of mega-donor Peter Thiel, gained the Republican nomination with the help of Trump’s endorsement but has since toned down his language on abortion, gun control and immigration.Florida attorney general: Aramis Ayala (D) v Ashley Moody (R)Ayala is the first Black female state attorney in Florida history. Moody, the incumbent, is a former prosecutor and judge who recently joined 10 other Republican attorneys general in a legal brief that sided with Trump over the justice department regarding the FBI search of his Mar-a-Lago home. Like her predecessor Pam Bondi, Moody could be a powerful ally for Trump as the state’s top law enforcement official.Georgia governor: Stacey Abrams (D) v Brian Kemp (R)Abrams, a voting rights activist, is bidding to become the first Black female governor in American history. But she lost narrowly to Kemp in 2018 and opinion polls suggest she could suffer the same fate in 2022. Kemp now enjoys the advantages of incumbency and a strong state economy. He also has momentum after brushing aside a primary challenge from Trump-backed challenger David Perdue.Georgia Senate: Herschel Walker (R) v Raphael Warnock (D)Warnock’s victory in a January 2021 runoff was critical in giving Democrats’ control of the Senate. Now the pastor of Atlanta’s Ebenezer Baptist church – where Martin Luther King used to preach – faces Walker, a former football star with huge name recognition but scant experience (he recently suggested that China’s polluted air has replaced American air). Polls show a tight race between the men, both of whom are African American.Ohio Senate: Tim Ryan (D) v JD Vance (R)The quintessential duel for blue-collar voters. Ryan, a Democratic congressman, has run an energetic campaign, presented himself as an earthy moderate and accused Vance of leaving the state for San Francisco to make millions of dollars in Silicon Valley. Vance, author of Hillbilly Elegy, seen as a kind of Rosetta Stone for understanding the Trump phenomenon in 2016, used to be a Trump critic but has now gone full Maga.Pennsylvania governor: Doug Mastriano (R) v Josh Shapiro (D)Mastriano, a retired army colonel and far-right state senator, led protests against pandemic restrictions, supported efforts to overturn Trump’s 2020 election defeat and appearing outside the US Capitol during the January 6 riot. Critics say that, as governor, he could tip a presidential election to Trump in 2024. Shapiro, the state’s attorney general, is running on a promise to defend democracy and voting rights.Pennsylvania Senate: John Fetterman (D) v Mehmet Oz (R)One of the most colourful duels on the ballot. Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, is 6ft 8in tall, recovering from a stroke that has affected his speech and hearing, and running aggressive ads that mock Oz for his lack of connections to the state. Oz, a heart surgeon and former host of the daytime TV show The Dr Oz Show, benefited from Trump’s endorsement in the primary but has since backed away from the former president’s claims of a stolen election.Wisconsin Senate: Mandela Barnes (D) v Ron Johnson (R)This is Democrats’ best chance of unseating an incumbent senator: Johnson is the only Republican running for re-election in a state that Biden won in 2020. First elected as a fiscal conservative, he has promoted bogus coronavirus treatments such as mouthwash, dismissed climate change as “bullshit” and sought to play down the January 6 insurrection. Barnes, currently lieutenant governor, is bidding to become the first Black senator in Wisconsin’s history.TopicsUS midterm elections 2022RepublicansDemocratsUS politicsArizonaFloridaGeorgiaexplainersReuse this content More
