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    Tariff Uncertainty Threatens to Drag Down Europe’s Economic Growth

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    The European Union scaled back its forecast for growth in 2025 by nearly half a percent, as the jump in tariffs and surrounding chaos bite.Europe’s economy will grow more slowly than expected this year, dragged down by trade uncertainty from President Trump’s tariffs, despite increasingly stable prices on consumer goods and energy, European Union economists said on Monday.In its spring economic forecast, the European Commission, the trade bloc’s administrative arm, said it expected the gross domestic product of the 20 countries using the euro to grow just 0.9 percent in 2025, down from the 1.3 percent that had been forecast last fall. Economic growth across the European Union is expected to increase 1.1 percent in the same period, down from a previous expectation of 1.5 percent, the commission said.Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been hit particularly hard by the increase in tariffs, with the commission expecting that country’s economy to stagnate as exports decline 1.9 percent in 2025. France also had its projected growth rate cut to 0.6 percent from 0.8 percent, and Italy’s fell to 0.7 percent from 1 percent.“Heightened global uncertainty and trade tensions are weighing on E.U. growth,” Valdis Dombrovskis, the European commissioner responsible for the trade bloc’s economy, told reporters in Brussels.The commission added that any de-escalation of the tensions between Europe and the United States set off by Mr. Trump’s imposition of a 10-percent import tax on European good could lead to stronger growth, as could new free trade agreements with other economic partners.On Monday, Britain and the European Union reached a deal aimed at removing some of the barriers to trade that Brexit had introduced.Growth is expected to return in 2026, the commission said, but it also scaled that projection back to 1.4 percent for the euro area, down from a previously projected 1.6 percent.One bright spot is the continued robustness of the European labor market, Mr. Dombrovskis said, citing 1.7 million jobs added last year and an expected two million to be added in the coming year.Increased spending on armaments and the military could help spur more growth across Europe, the commission said. The 500 billion euros the German government plans to invest in its defense infrastructure were not included in the forecast for this year, but they were expected to contribute a full percentage point to growth by 2028, Mr. Dombrovskis said.Germany has been stuck in stagnation for three years running, dragging down growth across all of the European Union.The economists also warned that the threat of further natural disasters, related to changes in the global climate, were a risk to growth. Europe suffered widespread flooding and extreme heat in 2024, and the continent is bracing for more extreme weather this year. More

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      3 Are Arrested in Russia-Linked Sabotage Plot, Germany Says

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      The men, Ukrainian nationals, were arrested in Germany and Switzerland, the state prosecutor in Berlin said. They are suspected of planning to sabotage commercial freight infrastructure.Three Ukrainian men have been arrested in Germany and Switzerland for planning acts of sabotage against infrastructure in Europe on behalf of Russia, the German authorities said Wednesday.The federal prosecutor’s office in Berlin said it was investigating the three men, who were arrested over the past five days, for a plan to send incendiary and explosive devices in parcels to addresses in Ukraine. None have been charged.The aim, the prosecutor said in a statement, appeared to be part of a plot to damage logistical infrastructure for commercial freight. The statement did not provide further details about possible targets.One of the men, identified only as Vladyslav T. in accordance with Germany’s strict privacy rules, posted two test packages in Cologne containing GPS transmitters in order to trace the route of the packages to Ukraine, the prosecutor said.Another man, Yevhen B., who was arrested Tuesday in Switzerland and will be extradited to Germany, directed that action, the prosecutor said. A third man, Daniil B., delivered the GPS transmitters and other items for the test packages, it said.Authorities are treating the men as foreign agents, and believe they had been directed by Russian state actors, the prosecutor said.Last year, a package exploded at a DHL hub at the airport in Leipzig, in what Western intelligence officials believe was a test run for a plot coordinated by Russia’s military intelligence agency, the GRU. The fire in Leipzig was followed by a similar fire at a DHL warehouse in Birmingham, England, and at a transport company near Warsaw.A Romanian national has since been detained by British police in connection with those fires.Poland has also accused Russia of being behind a fire that wiped out 1,400 small businesses when a shopping mall in Warsaw was almost completely destroyed in May of last year. On Sunday, Prime Minister Donald Tusk of Poland accused Russia of being behind the blaze.“We now know for sure that the great fire of the Marywilska shopping center in Warsaw was caused by arson ordered by the Russian special services,” he wrote on X.The arrests come after several official warnings that Germany has become the target of Russian hybrid attacks. Last year, the authorities charged three Russian-German dual citizens who they believe were hired to carry out acts of sabotage on industrial and military sites. The military has also reported foreign drones flying over training sites where Ukrainian soldiers are being trained.The issue of Russian sabotage in Germany even made it into Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s inaugural speech to lawmakers on Wednesday.“Look at the espionage and sabotage and the systematic disinformation of our population — this is overwhelmingly the work of the Russian government and its helpers, including here,” he said. More

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      Germany Bans Far-Right ‘King of Germany’ Group and Arrests Its Leaders

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      Members of a group calling itself the Kingdom of Germany, which was targeted in nationwide raids, reject the existence of the German state and want to set up a parallel one.Germany announced on Tuesday that it was banning a far-right group that refuses to recognize the German state and that has set up aspects of a parallel one of its own that includes a separate currency, ID cards, license plates and even a bank.On Tuesday morning, 800 police officers were mobilized in seven states and arrested four of the leaders of the group, which calls itself the Kingdom of Germany. Officers also searched buildings where the group was operating.Peter Fitzek, 59, a former cook who leads the group, and is known to his followers as Peter I, the self-appointed king, was among those arrested. The police said that Mr. Fitzek was being investigated for leading a criminal organization and illegally selling insurance and investments.The Kingdom of Germany, which the authorities estimate has 1,000 active members, is the largest organized grouping of the so-called Reichsbürger movement.Adherents of the movement generally claim that the German government is being run by “deep-state operatives” and often use antisemitic and anti-democratic conspiracy theories to justify their resistance to the modern German state.“The aim of this association is to establish a so-called parallel state and to secede from the Federal Republic of Germany,” Alexander Dobrindt, Germany’s new interior minister, said in Berlin after the raids.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Lessons From World War II to Avoid World War III

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      Thursday is the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II in Europe. As leaders of countries that suffered greatly during and after the war, we attach great importance to this date. We remember our fallen parents, grandparents and other relatives who defended our freedom from two tyrannies of the last century. We remember all those who were killed, including at least six million Jews murdered during the Holocaust by Nazis and their collaborators. We remember the millions of victims of Soviet repressions that continued unabated on the other side of the Iron Curtain at a time when Europe was reuniting and rebuilding itself after the war.The meaning of commemoration is to draw necessary lessons and to prevent mistakes from happening again. The lessons from World War II — we have five of them to share — are critical for understanding how to restore and maintain long-lasting and just peace and security in Europe today, when they are again at risk.Just like the great wars in the past, Russia’s full-scale aggression against Ukraine starting on Feb. 24, 2022, divided the 21st century into before and after. Despite overwhelming odds, Ukraine has managed to repel the attack and liberate more than half of the newly occupied territory. But even after more than 950,000 Russian soldiers killed and wounded in action, Russia has not abandoned its aggressive plans.President Vladimir Putin of Russia hopes to use the current geopolitical moment to his advantage and extract concessions from Ukraine and its partners. Moscow increasingly engages other rogue regimes like Iran and North Korea in the war, threatening the security of not only the European continent but also the Indo-Pacific and the Middle East.Learning from the past is critical today, as Ukraine, the European Union and the United States work to achieve peace. Russia’s war of aggression has shattered the post-World War II security architecture and the international system based on the United Nations Charter and the Helsinki Accords. Its conclusion will form the foundation for a new architecture. We offer the lessons from World War II that must be taken into account if we want to create an enduring peace in Ukraine, rather than a pause before the next potentially disastrous global conflict.Appeasing the aggressor leads to more aggression, not peace. Concessions on unlawful territorial claims are a disastrous mistake. The partition of Czechoslovakia in 1938 only fueled Nazi Germany’s appetite and resulted in a global war. Learning from this lesson, Ukraine will never accept the legitimization of Russia’s occupation and annexation of any part of Ukraine’s territory. Respect for territorial integrity is a fundamental principle of international law. There will be no sustainable peace and security at the cost of Ukraine’s people, independence, sovereignty or territorial integrity.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      The Works of Christo and Jean-Claude Are Experiencing a Revival

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      Known for their outsized and revolutionary art projects, the couple’s work is seen again in Florida, New York and Germany.It was 42 years ago. Miami awoke to a strange, crooked line of hot pink images floating in the waters of panoramic Biscayne Bay.Eleven small islands had been wrapped in wide, rippling swaths of pink plastic. They were almost glowing as the morning sun swept over the beaches and skyscrapers of the city. Crowds came out in helicopters and speedboats and the family car. Some people perched on condo balconies.It was the work of Christo and his wife, Jeanne-Claude, the European artists who had wrapped the Reichstag building in Berlin, the Pont Neuf bridge in Paris and run a billowing, tall white nylon fence 24.5 miles over the cattle ranges just north of San Francisco and into the Pacific Ocean.People flew in from Europe and around the world to see the show, and collectors and museum directors and many others say it lifted the curtain on Miami as a city of natural beauty that would eventually become a dazzling global art center.“It was a world happening,” said Norman Braman, a former owner of the Philadelphia Eagles, a collector and a Miami car dealer with about a dozen brands, from Hyundai to Rolls-Royce.But it was a tough time for Miami. Cocaine seemed to be everywhere. Gunmen were in the streets. Time magazine had put the city on its cover as “Paradise Lost.” In 1984 — a year after the extravaganza on the bay — the “Miami Vice” TV show took the city’s crime and fashion into American living rooms.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      A New Trend in Global Elections: The Anti-Trump Bump

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      In voting in Canada and Australia, right-wing parties that borrowed from the MAGA playbook were punished. Elsewhere, President Trump is having a more complex impact.The Trump factor is shaping global politics, one election at a time — just not necessarily to the president’s taste.In major votes in Canada and Australia over the past two weeks, centrists saw their fortunes revived, while parties that had borrowed from the MAGA playbook lost out.President Trump has been back in power for only three months, but already his policies, including imposing tariffs and upending alliances, have rippled into domestic political battles around the world.While it is too soon to say that anti-Trump forces are on the rise globally, it is clear that voters have Mr. Trump somewhere on their mind as they make decisions.Political cousinsCanada and Australia share a lot in common: a political system, a major mining industry, a sovereign in King Charles. Now they also share a remarkable political story.In both countries, before Mr. Trump was inaugurated, the center-left ruling parties had been in poor shape and appeared poised to lose power. The front-runners in polls were the conservative parties, whose leaders flirted with Trumpian politics both in style and in substance.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More

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      Germany hits back at Marco Rubio after he panned labeling of AfD as ‘extremist’

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      Germany’s foreign ministry has hit back at the US secretary of state, Marco Rubio, following his criticism of Germany’s decision to label the far-right Alternative für Deutschland party as a “confirmed rightwing extremist group”.On Thursday, Rubio took to X and wrote: “Germany just gave its spy agency new powers to surveil the opposition. That’s not democracy – it’s tyranny in disguise. What is truly extremist is not the popular AfD – which took second in the recent election – but rather the establishment’s deadly open border immigration policies that the AfD opposes.”Rubio went on to say: “Germany should reverse course.”In a response on X, the German foreign ministry pushed back against the US secretary of state, saying: “This is democracy. This decision is the result of a thorough & independent investigation to protect our Constitution & the rule of law. It is independent courts that will have the final say. We have learnt from our history that rightwing extremism needs to be stopped.”Germany’s response to Rubio comes after its domestic intelligence service, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution (BfV), designated the AfD as a “confirmed rightwing extremist” force on Friday.The BfV’s decision marks a step up from its previous designation of the country’s anti-immigrant, pro-Kremlin and largest opposition party as a “suspected” threat to Germany’s democratic order. According to the BfV, the AfD’s xenophobic stances based on an “ethnic-ancestry-based understanding” of German identity are “incompatible with the free democratic basic order” as indicated by the country’s constitution.The spy agency added that the AfD “aims to exclude certain population groups from equal participation in society, to subject them to unconstitutional unequal treatment and thus to assign them a legally devalued status”.It also said: “This exclusionary understanding of the people is the starting point and ideological basis for ongoing agitation against certain individuals or groups of people, through which they are defamed and despised indiscriminately and irrational fears and rejection are stirred up.”During February’s general election in Germany which was rocked by extensive US interference including public votes of confidence by staunch AfD supporters such as Elon Musk and JD Vance, the AfD amassed approximately 21% of the vote, finishing second.The far-right party’s rise to popularity in Germany has come as a result of a broader wave of growing rightwing extremism across Europe.skip past newsletter promotionafter newsletter promotionAt the same time, public figures in the US have openly made remarks or gestures that are sympathetic to nazism, despite the Trump administration’s sweeping crackdown on antisemitism across the country – a move which has been called into question by higher education institutions and Jewish senators who accuse Trump of targeting free speech.Musk, who had been given the designation of a “special government employee” by the Trump administration, made back-to-back apparent fascist salutes during the president’s inauguration rally earlier this year.Last month, during a Capitol Hill hearing that sought to explore supposed government censorship under Joe Biden, Republican representative Keith Self quoted Joseph Goebbels, the Nazi propaganda minister under Adolf Hitler.“A direct quote from Joseph Goebbels: ‘It is the absolute right of the state to supervise the formation of public opinion,’ and I think that may be what we’re discussing here,” he said. More

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      The Guardian view on Friedrich Merz’s grand coalition: gambling on a new centre ground | Editorial

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      Some years ago, hundreds of German finance ministry staff dressed in black and formed a giant zero to salute their boss, Wolfgang Schäuble, as he left office. It was a tribute to Mr Schäuble’s extreme fiscal conservatism, which had delivered Germany’s first balanced budget in the postwar period. Amid resurgent prosperity in the Angela Merkel years, the so-called black zero – symbolising a constitutional prohibition on public debt – had gradually acquired cult status.As a new administration prepares to take power in Berlin, it seems unlikely that human euro signs will welcome the latest politician to take on Mr Schäuble’s former role. But in dramatic fashion, the spending taps are set to be turned on. Via a swiftly staged March vote in the outgoing Bundestag, “debt brake” dogma was consigned to history by the chancellor‑elect, Friedrich Merz. The way was thus paved for groundbreaking expenditure on defence, and the overhaul of an economy being left behind in a changed, suddenly menacing world.So much for the theory – now for the practice. Mr Merz, the centre-right leader of the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), last week concluded the fastest set of coalition talks since 2009. Pending approval of the deal by Social Democratic party (SPD) members, he is expected to be sworn in as chancellor in by early May. In office, the “grand coalition” agreed between the CDU and the SPD – handed seven ministries including finance and defence – will immediately be confronted by challenges that dwarf those faced by almost all its predecessors.The US under Donald Trump, whether as economic partner or military ally, can no longer be relied upon – an era-defining shift whatever the outcome of the current tariff wars and Mr Trump’s negotiations with Moscow over Ukraine. China, once a vast outlet for the exports which fuelled growth, has morphed into a fearsome competitor, including on German soil. A stagnant economy, combined with a post-Merkel backlash against migration, has accelerated the rise of Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), one of the most extreme far‑right parties in Europe. Last week, a poll fatefully placed the AfD in the lead for the first time.The pressure from the right – both from within his own party and from the AfD – is having an impact. Mr Merz’s Trumpian promise to turn asylum seekers away at German borders from his “first day”, along with other draconian measures, will only allow the far right to up the ante still further. Meanwhile, he also appears to be looking for wriggle room on agreed coalition commitments to the less well off and to climate targets.Nevertheless, the broad economic thrust of the deal remains right for troubling times. The European Central Bank must play its part – by keeping yields on a leash. As Germany’s neighbours deal with similar geopolitical threats and uncertainties, the ability of the EU’s most powerful member state to show leadership and forge a path through the crisis will be crucial. With short-term growth acutely vulnerable to mood swings in the White House, the effects of spending will take time to be felt in people’s everyday lives. But the prospect of a transformative increase in public investment offers the hope of industrial renaissance and a restoration of voters’ trust in the political centre.Alongside his SPD counterparts last week, Mr Merz confidently announced that Germany was “back on track”. Europe badly needs him to be right.

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      Coalition Deal in Germany Clears Way for Friedrich Merz to Become Chancellor

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      The agreement was concluded relatively quickly but still took about six and half weeks, during which the country had been virtually rudderless at a critical moment for Europe.Germany’s centrist parties announced on Wednesday that they had formally reached a coalition agreement to allow Friedrich Merz, a conservative, to take the reins as chancellor at a tumultuous moment when Europe’s economic and security order is being upended.Since Mr. Merz’s Christian Democrats came out on top in elections in February, he has been under tremendous pressure to get a government moving as the Trump administration batters Europe with tariffs, threatens the NATO alliance and cozies up to an aggressive and expansionist Russia.Sensing the urgency, Mr. Merz took the exceptional step of using the interim period to push measures through Parliament to raise debt limits so that Germany could throw billions more at infrastructure and military spending. The coalition agreement announced on Wednesday was the fastest since 2009, when Angela Merkel won her second term.Nonetheless, Germany, Europe’s largest economy, has been left virtually leaderless during the multiple overlapping global crises.“We don’t yet know which direction the international situation will take, but that is why our message today is all the clearer: In this global change we want to — and we will — help shape Germany,” Mr. Merz told reporters as the coalition plan was presented.Responding to a question from a reporter, Mr. Merz took a moment to address President Trump directly, in English. “The key message to Donald Trump is Germany is back on track,” he said.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber? Log in.Want all of The Times? Subscribe. More