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      German Conservatives Appear to Lead in Last State Election Before National Vote

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      The contest in an eastern state, a stronghold of the Alternative for Germany, had been closely watched for signs of the far-right party’s appeal.BERLIN — Voters in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt appeared in a Sunday vote to support a return of the ruling conservatives, which made strong gains in a contest that had been closely watched for signs of a far-right party’s strength months ahead of a national election.Initial partial returns suggested that the conservative Christian Democratic Union were poised to break a losing streak in state ballots and expand their past margins over the nationalist Alternative for Germany, or AfD.Although Saxony-Anhalt is one of the country’s smallest states, with only 1.8 million people eligible to cast ballots, many Germans were looking to Sunday’s vote for indications about the national election for a new Parliament on Sept. 26.The outcome on Sunday could bolster the campaign of Armin Laschet, the current leader of the Christian Democrats, who is hoping to replace Angela Merkel. She is stepping down after 16 years in office as chancellor.Mr. Laschet, 60, the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, has struggled to gain traction across the country, especially in the states of the former East Germany, and the strong showing for his party in the last regional election before the national ballot could give his contest a boost.“Today is a clear win for the Christian Democrats,” said Volker Bouffier, the governor of the western state of Hesse and a senior member of the conservative party. “But the fight is still at the beginning, the fight for the democratic center.”Despite the conservatives’ apparent ability to attract more support, the early partial returns suggested that AfD remained firmly the second most popular party in the state, a position it won five years ago when it received nearly a quarter of votes in the Saxony-Anhalt state election, shocking the country and propelling the party from the far-right nationalist fringe onto the national stage.The following year, the AfD won more than 12 percent in the national election, becoming the largest opposition party in the national Parliament, with 88 seats.A polling place at an art history museum in Magdeburg, the capital of Saxony-Anhalt, on Sunday.John Macdougall/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesSince then, Alternative for Germany has struggled to contend with a more extremist wing that has pulled the party branch in Saxony-Anhalt even further to the right, capturing the attention of the country’s domestic intelligence service. The state’s leaders in the party, along with those from the branches in Brandenburg and Thuringia, are under official scrutiny for their anti-Semitic and anti-Muslim statements. Whether the AfD at the national level will also be placed under observation is on hold, pending the outcome of a legal challenge.While much about the Saxony-Anhalt contest is unique to the region, heavily focused on local issues like schools and economic restructuring, a majority of voters told pollsters with infratest.dimap on Sunday they were satisfied with the work of their governor, Reiner Haseloff, a member of the Christian Democrats who sought to clearly distance his party from the AfD.“I am thankful that our image remains, we have a reputation of democracy here in Saxony-Anhalt that we upheld tonight,” Mr. Haseloff said after initial projections had shown his party the clear winner of the evening.Mr. Haseloff has been a strong champion of the states in eastern Germany, home to many regions that are still struggling with the fallout from economic restructuring more than 30 years after the fall of the Berlin Wall.The persistent lack of jobs and economic infrastructure in those states, and a feeling that traditional parties do not take their concerns seriously, were other key factors that led many voters to shift their support to the AfD five years ago. That result forced Mr. Haseloff to form a coalition government across a wide political spectrum, including the center-left Social Democrats as well as the environmentalist Greens, in an effort to keep the far-right in the opposition.On Sunday, the Social Democrats suffered one of their worst showings in a state election, while the Greens were able to gain marginal support in the region, where they have traditionally struggled to attract voters.The other winner of the state ballot, along with the conservatives, appeared to be the pro-business Free Democratic Party, which voters returned to the statehouse for the first time in a decade. More

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      Election in East Germany Will Test the Far Right’s Power

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      Voting on Sunday may hint at how strong the Alternative for Germany party is in the east, and what that means for national elections in September.BERLIN — Five years ago, the nationalist Alternative for Germany sent the country’s traditional parties scrambling when it finished ahead of Chancellor Angela Merkel’s conservatives in the regional vote in the eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt, an ominous portent of the far right’s growing allure.This Sunday, voters in Saxony-Anhalt will be back at the polls, and the result of this state election, coming just three months before a national one, will be scrutinized to see whether a nationally weakened AfD can hold on to voters in one of the regions where it has proved strongest.While much about the Saxony-Anhalt contest is unique to the region and heavily focused on local issues about schools and economic restructuring, a strong showing by the AfD — which rode a wave of anti-immigration sentiment in 2016 — could cause headaches for Armin Laschet, the leader of Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democrats. Mr. Laschet, who is hoping to replace her in the chancellery, has struggled to gain traction in the former East German states.A sign in Magdeburg pointing the way to an “election event” and a “vaccination center.” Ronny Hartmann/Agence France-Presse — Getty Images“A strong showing by the Christian Democrats would remove a hurdle for Mr. Laschet and could strengthen his position heading into the national race,” said Manfred Güllner, who heads the Forsa Institute political polling agency.At the same time, he conceded, “If the AfD were to perform as well as the Christian Democrats, it would have repercussions for the federal vote.”Amid an election campaign largely carried out online because of pandemic restrictions, Mr. Laschet visited the state’s mining region last weekend. He stressed the need for time and investment to shift successfully away from coal and pledged to provide support similar to what his home state, North Rhine-Westphalia, got when it quit coal.Armin Laschet leads the Christian Democratic Union and hopes to be the next German chancellor.Jens Schlueter/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe effort may have paid off: A survey released on Thursday showed his party at 30 percent support in Saxony-Anhalt, a comfortable margin of seven percentage points ahead of the AfD, which is known by its German initials and currently holds 88 seats in the German Parliament.If that margin holds, it could bolster Mr. Laschet’s standing as campaigning begins in earnest for the Sept. 26 election, despite a bruising contest for the chancellor candidacy against a rival from Bavaria.In 2016, Germany was adjusting to the arrival of more than one million migrants the previous year, and Saxony-Anhalt was struggling against looming unemployment. While pollsters had predicted that the AfD, which made itself the anti-immigration party after forming in 2013 to protest the euro, would easily earn seats in the statehouse, no one expected it to come in second, winning more than 24 percent support from the region’s two million voters.Since then, Alternative for Germany has swung even further to the right, capturing the attention of the country’s domestic intelligence service, which placed the party’s leadership under observation over concerns about its anti-Semitic, anti-Muslim expressions and links to extremists. The party’s branches in Brandenburg and Thuringia are also under scrutiny, while an attempt to observe the national party has been put on hold pending the outcome of a legal challenge.The AfD in Saxony-Anhalt “has become very strong, despite the various messy and dubious scandals,” said Alexander Hensel, a political scientist at the Institute for Democracy Studies at the University of Göttingen, who has studied the party’s rise in the region. “Instead of breaking apart, they have consolidated, becoming an increasingly radical opposition force.”Candidates at a debate ahead of the election in Saxony-Anhalt.  Ronny Hartmann/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThe continued support for Alternative for Germany in places like Saxony-Anhalt has created a split among many mainstream conservatives over whether the Christian Democrats should be willing to enter a coalition with the far-right party if needed.Mr. Laschet has made his opinion clear in recent days. “We don’t want any sort of cooperation with the AfD at any level,” he said in an interview with the public broadcaster Deutschlandfunk.But with the jockeying for the future direction of the Christian Democratic Union underway after 16 years under Ms. Merkel’s largely centrist leadership, some members on the party’s right flank see her exit as a chance to shift harder to the right.In December, the conservative governor of Saxony-Anhalt, Reiner Haseloff, a Christian Democrat who is running for another term, fired his interior minister for seeming to float the possibility of a minority government, supported by the AfD.Mr. Haseloff has based his campaign on promising stability as the country begins to emerge from the pandemic, with a pledge to help improve the standard of living in rural areas, many of which lack enough teachers, medical professionals and police officers.Reiner Haseloff, the governor of Saxony-Anhalt, is a Christian Democrat up for re-election. On Wednesday he discussed reforestation in Oranienbaum-Wörlitz.Christian Mang/ReutersSaxony-Anhalt has the oldest population in all of Germany, a reflection of the number of young people who left the state in the painful years after the reunification of Germany’s former East and West in 1990.While the state has benefited from an attempt under the latest government to create jobs in less populated areas, including by setting up several federal agencies in Saxony-Anhalt, the region’s standard of living still lags those in similar regions in the former West Germany, Mr. Haseloff said.“There continue to be clear differences between east and west, and not only in the distribution of federal offices,” Mr. Haseloff said this week, ahead of an annual meeting focused on increasing regional equality.The Alternative for Germany has campaigned this time around on a rejection of the federal government’s policies to stop the spread of the coronavirus. “Freedom Instead of Corona Insanity” reads one of its posters, showing a blue-eyed woman with a tear rolling down to the rim of her protective mask.Among the other parties, the Social Democrats and the Left are both polling in the 10 to 12 percent rage, largely unchanged from where four years ago.Both the Free Democrats and the Greens are predicted to see their popularity roughly double from where they stood in 2016, which could make it easier for Mr. Haseloff to build a government if he is returned to office. Analysts said regional gains for them were unlikely to have wider repercussions for the national race.“Saxony-Anhalt is a very specific situation, they are coming from a unique history,” Mr. Hensel, the political scientist, said. “But regardless of whether the Greens earn 10 percent or the Free Democrats 8 percent of the vote, a quarter of voters support the AfD. That is worth paying attention to.” More

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      A global agreement on taxing corporations is in sight – let’s make sure it happens

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      For more than four years, France, Germany, Italy and Spain have been working together to create an international tax system fit for the 21st century. It is a saga of many twists and turns. Now it’s time to come to an agreement. Introducing this fairer and more efficient international tax system was already a priority before the current economic crisis, and it will be all the more necessary coming out of it.Why? First, because the crisis was a boon to big tech companies, which raked in profit at levels not seen in any other sector of the economy. So how is it that the most profitable companies do not pay a fair share of tax? Just because their business is online doesn’t mean they should not pay taxes in the countries where they operate and from which their profits derive. Physical presence has been the historical basis of our taxation system. This basis has to evolve with our economies gradually shifting online. Like any other company, they should pay their fair share to fund the public good, at a level commensurate with their success.Second, because the crisis has exacerbated inequalities. It is urgent to put in place an international tax system that is efficient and fair. Currently, multinationals are able to avoid corporate taxes by shifting profits offshore. That’s not something the public will continue to accept. Fiscal dumping cannot be an option for Europe, nor can it be for the rest of the world. It would only lead to a further decline in corporate income tax revenues, wider inequalities and an inability to fund vital public services.Third, because we need to re-establish an international consensus on major global issues. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, with the support of our countries, has been doing exceptional work in the area of international taxation for many years. The OECD has put forward fair and balanced proposals on both subjects: the taxation of the profit of the most profitable multinationals, notably digital giants (Pillar 1), and the minimal taxation (Pillar 2). We can build on this work. For the first time in decades, we have an opportunity to reach a historic agreement on a new international tax system that would involve every country in the world. Such a multilateral agreement would signal a commitment to working together on major global issues.With the new Biden administration, there is no longer the threat of a veto hanging over this new system. The new US proposal on minimal taxation is an important step in the direction of the proposal initially floated by our countries and taken over by the OECD. The commitment to a minimum effective tax rate of at least 15% is a promising start. We therefore commit to defining a common position on a new international tax system at the G7 finance ministers meeting in London today. We are confident it will create the momentum needed to reach a global agreement at the G20 in Venice in July. It is within our reach. Let’s make sure it happens. We owe it to our citizens.
      Nadia Calviño, second deputy prime minister of Spain, is the country’s economy minister. Daniele Franco is minister of economy and finance in Italy. Bruno Le Maire is France’s minister of economy, finance and recovery. Olaf Scholz is German vice-chancellor and minister of finance More

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      in Elections

      The Race to Replace Angela Merkel Is On

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      BERLIN — For the past two and a half years, since it became clear that Chancellor Angela Merkel would not run for office again, there’s been one great unresolved question in German politics: Who will succeed her?Last week, after the two parties leading in the polls nominated their candidates, we got much closer to finding out. Ms. Merkel’s Christian Democratic Union eventually chose Armin Laschet, the party head. The challenger from the ascendant Green Party is Annalena Baerbock. With the addition of Olaf Scholz of the Social Democratic Party, a credible candidate whose party is lagging behind in the polls, the lineup for September’s election is all but complete.After over 15 years of rule by Ms. Merkel, Germany is at a crossroads. In Mr. Laschet, a 60-year-old regional governor, and Ms. Baerbock, at age 40 the youngest candidate ever to run for chancellor, voters have a stark choice between an icon of continuity and a herald of change. The person voters choose will shape the country’s future, perhaps for decades.So who exactly are the candidates? And what would a Germany led by any of them look like?Armin Laschet, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union and a regional governor, is an icon of continuity.Filip Singer/EPA, via ShutterstockAnnalena Baerbock, co-chair of the Green Party, is the youngest candidate ever to run for chancellor.Leon Kuegeler/ReutersLet’s start with Mr. Laschet. A practicing Catholic from Aachen, an old city that borders the Netherlands and Belgium, he shares with Ms. Merkel a Christian, humanitarian worldview. “He takes the C in C.D.U. very seriously,” Cem Özdemir, a Green Party lawmaker who has known Mr. Laschet for decades, told me. And like Ms. Merkel, Mr. Laschet is described as personally modest and mostly fair in political discussions and negotiations. “You usually get along with him quite well,” said Ulla Schmidt, a Social Democratic lawmaker who has known him for 35 years.Open to new ideas and different positions, Mr. Laschet is notable for having many friends across the political spectrum. As a young lawmaker in the early 1990s, he was among the first in his party to meet with representatives from the Green Party — at a time when many in the C.D.U. still thought of the Greens as a bunch of eco-punks who could not be trusted to run anything, let alone a country.Mr. Laschet was also one of the first in his party to openly embrace the idea that Germany is a country of immigrants. “He has earned himself a lot of respect in migrant communities, because he has listened to what they had to say,” Serap Güler, a Christian Democrat born to Turkish immigrants who serves in Mr. Laschet’s administration in North Rhine-Westphalia, told me.Along with his broadly pro-immigration stance, Mr. Laschet is enthusiastic about education, a tough combatant of organized crime and a vocal opponent of the far-right Alternative for Germany party, with which he has vowed never to cooperate. A true man of the political middle, he could be expected to govern the country competently and fairly. But his candidacy, already weakened by his poor ratings, is a gamble that Germans want more of the same.Ms. Baerbock, by contrast, offers something truly new. Born in 1980, she represents the generation that came of age after the country’s reunification. Raised in Hanover in the west, she now — by way of a stint in Brussels, where she was an office manager for a Green Party lawmaker in the European Union — holds a seat in Brandenburg in the east. Her approach is refreshingly relatable: A mother of two young children, who has spoken about the struggles of being a working mom, she’s unafraid to bring together the personal and the political.But she doesn’t shy away from substantive debates — about climate change or foreign policy — or difficult political negotiations. In 2017, for example, when the Greens were discussing a possible coalition deal with the Christian Democrats and the Free Democratic Party (which pulled out at the last moment, scuppering the plan), Ms. Baerbock demanded the country end its use of coal and even brokered a compromise, impressing opponents and colleagues alike with her tenacity and command of detail.Those qualities have been visible in her leadership of the party, a position she surprisingly won, along with a co-chair, in 2018. Famously afflicted by infighting between its left and right flanks, the Green Party under Ms. Baerbock has been notably united. That has contributed to the party’s remarkable ascendance, from a marginal environmental force to a serious contender for power. Once regularly polling at 5 percent or 6 percent approval, the party now stands at around 20 percent — with room to grow.In its slow but steady rise, the party moved to the political middle, in style and substance, and toned down some of its more radical ideas, such as the dissolution of NATO. Even so, the party’s platform for the national election is notably far-reaching, calling for a “social-ecological transformation” and a zero-emissions economy. (The Christian Democrats have yet to release their platform.) Many of the document’s details remain vague, but it is radical in its language and ideas.Were Ms. Baerbock to become the Greens’ first-ever chancellor — the party served as the junior partner in a national coalition with the Social Democrats from 1998 to 2005, but has never before stood a chance of reaching the chancellery — it would certainly be a great political experiment.Inexperience, political adversaries say, would be a major hindrance. While it’s true that Ms. Baerbock has no government experience, she’s known for her perseverance and willingness to fight. In the race to become the party’s candidate, she started as the underdog — her co-chair, Robert Habeck, was expected to clinch it — but she systematically and strategically built support, both inside and outside the party.It’s easy to see how she did it: In conversation, she comes across as a quick mind, as well as tough and disciplined. And she clearly has a talent for motivating and enthusing others. Unlike Mr. Laschet, whose candidacy was fiercely contested, she is loved by her party.In recent months, the government’s failure to stem the tide of new coronavirus infections, bolster the health service and roll out vaccinations has stung. Germans seem ready for something new. The question is: How new will it be?The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      German Greens and Conservatives Choose Chancellor Candidates

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      Annalena Baerbock, the first Green candidate to have a significant shot at becoming chancellor, will run against Armin Laschet, head of Germany’s largest conservative party.BERLIN — Germany’s top two parties announced their candidates for chancellor on Monday and early Tuesday morning, with the Greens sending their dynamic but inexperienced leader, Annalena Baerbock, 40, into the running against Armin Laschet, 60, the head of the largest conservative party, who triumphed after a divisive public power struggle.Along with Olaf Scholz, 62, who is running for the Social Democrats, the nominations solidified the field of candidates seeking to replace Angela Merkel, who in September will exit the political stage after 16 years as chancellor. The race will for the first time pit a member of the country’s post-reunification generation, Ms. Baerbock, against its traditional political forces.With polls showing the Greens in second place nationally behind the conservatives, with support of around 22 percent, the Greens have a genuine crack at the chancellery for the first time since the party took its modern form in 1993. Ms. Baerbock is the Greens’ first serious candidate for chancellor, although she would most likely have to rely on the support of other parties to build a coalition government.The conservatives’ choice of Mr. Laschet, leader of the Christian Democratic Union and the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, followed days of divisive debate, reflecting the challenges conservatives face redefining themselves as Ms. Merkel prepares to leave the chancellor’s office.The leadership of the Christian Democratic Union party chose Armin Laschet, the governor of North Rhine-Westphalia, as its candidate for chancellor.Michele Tantussi/ReutersAlthough the conservatives remain the strongest party, with support of just below 30 percent, the bitter dispute over their candidate for chancellor has strained the unity within the bloc, threatening to alienate voters. The party has also suffered from an increasingly rocky response to the pandemic and a slow vaccine rollout, seeing its popularity drop 10 percentage points since the start of the year.But the past week for the conservatives has been dominated by the all-out fight for the nomination between Mr. Laschet and the leader of the smaller Bavarian Christian Social Union, Markus Söder, 54.Mr. Söder was buoyed by his popularity among Germans, and he sought to leverage that to wrest the candidacy for chancellor from Mr. Laschet, whose consensus-orientated style has so far failed to excite voters. Mr. Söder’s challenge upended a decades-old tradition of allowing the leader of the much larger Christian Democratic Union to be the default candidate for the top government post.The leaders of the Christian Democrat executive board voted for Mr. Laschet by a wide margin early Tuesday morning, the party said, hours after Mr. Söder had given a statement in which he agreed to accept the decision of the Christian Democrat leadership while also trying to position himself as the prime candidate.“We must, no matter what the outcome, reconcile, unite, become a common, big, powerful unit in this election campaign,” Mr. Söder told reporters on Monday, hours before the vote for Mr. Laschet.Influential leaders of the Christian Democrats had been concerned by the idea of choosing the maverick Mr. Söder. Others felt that Mr. Laschet’s strong political network and focus on building consensus were the traits needed to steer the country into a post-Merkel future. They voted 31 to nine, with six abstentions in favor of the North Rhine-Westphalian governor, German media reported.By contrast, the naming of Ms. Baerbock over the Greens’ other co-leader, Robert Habeck, 51, was harmonious. The party is positioning itself to appeal not only to Germans drawn to its traditional stance on environmental protection, but also those who seek a more dynamic, youthful presence in a country that has been under the leadership of the same conservative chancellor for 16 years.“I want to make an offer with my candidacy for the whole of society,” Ms. Baerbock said in her acceptance speech, in which she called for improving the situation for Germans in rural regions and for low-wage workers. She also stressed the importance of ensuring that Germany meets its goals for reducing its climate-change emissions, while remaining an industrial power. A co-leader of her party since 2018, Ms. Baerbock is respected for her attention to detail and preference for honest criticism and suggestions for improvement over fawning praise or soaring speeches. In accepting the candidacy on Monday, she acknowledged her lack of experience in political office head-on, casting it as a strength that would help her and her party to revive Germany.“I was never a chancellor and never a minister,” Ms. Baerbock said. “I am running for renewal, the others represent the status quo,” she said, adding, “I believe this country needs a new start.”The Welzow-Sued coal mine near Grossraschen, Germany, in March. Ms. Baerbock has said she wants the country to remain an industrial power while meeting emissions targets.Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesThe conservatives have dominated modern Germany’s political landscape and have held the chancellery for all but seven of the past 30 years, when the Social Democrats led the country, from 1998 to 2005, in coalition with the Greens as the junior partner.Ms. Baerbock, the only woman in the race, was born in 1980 and grew up outside Hanover. She now lives with her husband and their two children in the eastern state of Brandenburg, where she served as the Greens state leader for four years, until 2013.“I come from a generation that is no longer young but also not old, a generation that has grown up in a united Germany and in a common Europe,” she said.Ms. Baerbock has often referred to her experience as a competitive trampolinist as shaping her approach to politics, stressing the importance of courage and teamwork. She has earned a reputation as a tough negotiator, both from talks over Germany’s plan to quit coal and the 2017 negotiations with Ms. Merkel’s party over a potential three-way coalition that collapsed when the Free Democrats, Germany’s traditional free-market party, pulled out.Mr. Laschet’s popularity has been dropping on both the national stage, where he is seen as lacking in charisma, and in his home state of North Rhine-Westphalia, where more than half of the population have said they are not happy with his performance. He prevailed in the race to lead the Christian Democrats with a speech calling for unity and trust that drew on his personal history as the son of a miner growing up in Germany’s industrial heartland, which helped him overcome a largely lackluster campaign.Christopher F. Schuetze contributed reporting. More

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      A Bitter Family Feud Dominates the Race to Replace Merkel

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      Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany will exit the world stage in less than six months, and the fight for her seat is pitting the leaders of two sister parties against one another.BERLIN — With less than six months to go before Germans cast their ballots for a new chancellor, the political vacuum Angela Merkel leaves behind after 16 years of consensus-oriented leadership is coming more sharply into focus.A rare and rancorous power struggle has gripped Germany’s conservatives this week as two rivals vie to replace her, threatening to further hobble her Christian Democratic Union, which is already sliding in the polls.Normally, Armin Laschet, 60, who was elected in January to lead the party, would almost assuredly be the heir apparent to Ms. Merkel. Instead, he finds himself unexpectedly pitted against his biggest rival, Markus Söder, the more popular head of a smaller, Bavaria-only party, the Christian Social Union, in a kind of conservative family feud.Experts and party members alike are calling for the dispute to be resolved within the coming days, as it risks damaging the reputation of the two conservative parties, jointly referred to as the Union. Because the two parties operate as one on the national stage, they must choose one candidate for chancellor.“Armin Laschet and Markus Söder must finally understand their responsibility toward the Union,” Tilman Kuban, head of the Young Union, told the Bild daily on Thursday. “If they continue to tear one another apart as they have in the past few days, together they will ensure that there won’t be much left of the Christian Democrats or the Christian Socialists in the future.”Leading Ms. Merkel’s party would have once been seen as an advantage for Mr. Laschet, but it has recently become a drag. With a botched vaccine rollout and a confusing response to the pandemic, support for the conservatives has plunged by 10 percentage points since the start of the year.After a series of personal gaffes, Mr. Laschet’s popularity has been dropping. In his home state of North Rhine-Westphalia more than half of the population have said they are not happy with his performance, and a poll this week showed only 4 percent of Germans nationwide see him as “a strong leader.”For Armin Laschet, leading Ms. Merkel’s party was once an asset, but may now be seen as a liability. Sean Gallup/Getty ImagesAt the same time, Mr. Söder, 54, who is also governor of Bavaria, has artfully used several appearances alongside Ms. Merkel after pandemic-related meetings to burnish his image as a man in charge, capable of tackling tough issues and getting things done.A full 57 percent of Germans said Mr. Söder displayed the qualities of “a strong leader.”Keenly aware of his popularity, Mr. Söder began openly pushing for the candidacy earlier this week, citing his strong, stable showing in the polls over Mr. Laschet, despite warnings from senior conservatives that public opinion could be fickle.“At the end of the day, the conservative parties have to make an offer that will be acceptable to voters and the people, and not just a few party functionaries,” Mr. Söder told Bavarian public television. “Of course polls are not everything, but if after several months a clear trend emerges, it cannot just be ignored.”After leading conservative lawmakers discussed the issue on Sunday, Mr. Söder said he was willing to run, if the Christian Democrats would support him. If not, he added, he would cooperate, “without any grudges.”But on Monday, after the boards of each party had backed their own leader, Mr. Söder suddenly changed his position. He continued to push for his right to run for chancellor during a closed-door meeting of conservative lawmakers on Tuesday. After four hours of discussions, nearly two-thirds of those present expressed their support for the Bavarian leader — including members of Mr. Laschet’s party.Markus Söder is leading Mr. Laschet in polling and has the support of nearly two-thirds of conservative leaders. Clemens Bilan/EPA, via ShutterstockIn a country that views the art of compromise as a valuable skill for a leader, the public game of political chicken could come at a high price. At a time when the environmentalist Greens have rapidly risen in popularity and are now nipping at the conservatives’ heels, they can ill afford such a public display of disharmony.“At the end of the day, both have to decide between themselves. There is no set procedure that clearly defines how this will end,” said Prof. Thorsten Fass, a political scientist at Berlin’s Free University. Regardless of who runs as the candidate, the damage of the fight will still have to be repaired, Professor Fass said. “It is not a good way to start an election year.”Both contenders have said they would like the matter to be decided by the end of the week, and pressure from inside both parties is growing for a quick resolution.Four other political parties are vying to win the most votes on Sept. 26 and seize power by forming a government and naming a chancellor.The center-left Social Democrats, who have been the junior party in Ms. Merkel’s government coalition since 2017, have already named the finance minister and vice-chancellor, Olaf Scholz, as their choice for chancellor. The Greens, currently polling as the second-strongest party ahead of the Social Democrats and close behind the conservatives, are scheduled to announce their candidate on Monday. Not everyone is ready to count out Mr. Laschet yet. He is a politician whose recent successes, winning the governorship of North Rhine-Westphalia over a well-liked incumbent and the monthslong race for the Christian Democrat leadership in January, both saw him grasping victory after coming from behind.Mr. Laschet also has the backing of some of the most senior and influential members of his party, including the former finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who has been around since the first time the conservatives split over a chancellor candidate in 1979.“If Laschet has the nerve and still has his party’s leadership behind him, then Söder could say that he accepts this, then use his position to negotiate a strong minister post for his party in a potential future government,” said Ursula Münch, director of the Academy for Political Education in Tutzing.On the other hand, if enough pressure from within the party builds on Mr. Laschet, he could concede to Mr. Söder for the sake of the party and the need to move ahead. That would hand the Bavarian leader a victory that would serve to enforce his reputation as a sharp-witted maverick who will change his policies to fit the public mood. As public favor in Bavaria shifted from the far-right Alternative for Germany party to the environmentalist Greens, he abandoned an anti-immigrant stance and embraced a push to save honey bees, to the ire of farmers who have long formed the grass roots of his party.“He is intelligent, quick and rhetorically strong,” Ms. Münch said of Mr. Söder. “He is able to push people into a corner while keeping a back door open for himself, and in that sense, Laschet can’t hold a candle to him.” More

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      Election Year in Germany Kicks Off With Voting in Two States

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      #masthead-section-label, #masthead-bar-one { display: none }The Coronavirus OutbreakliveLatest UpdatesMaps and CasesRisk Near YouVaccine RolloutGuidelines After VaccinationAdvertisementContinue reading the main storySupported byContinue reading the main storyElection Year in Germany Kicks Off With Voting in Two StatesRegional governments will be chosen in two southwestern states months before a national vote that is considered wide open after 16 years under Chancellor Angela MerkelPosters for the Rhineland-Palatinate state election, including the incumbent governor, Malu Dreyer of the Social Democrats, right, and Christian Baldauf of the Christian Democratic Union, top left, in Frankenthal, Germany, on Wednesday.Credit…Michael Probst/Associated PressMarch 14, 2021, 5:33 a.m. ETBERLIN — Voters in two southwestern German states are kicking off an election year on Sunday that could change the course of Europe’s largest economy after 16 years under the leadership of Chancellor Angela Merkel, who will be stepping down after a new government is sworn in.The elections in the states of Baden-Württemberg and Rhineland-Palatinate are the first in a year that will see voting for new legislators in four more states, and for the country’s Parliament, which will be elected in September.Sunday’s voting is taking place after largely muted election campaigns that were overshadowed by the threat of the coronavirus and by lockdowns. While neither race will serve as a clear bellwether for the fall election, the outcomes could indicate how voters are feeling about the two leading parties, the conservatives and the Greens, and help focus the contest for Ms. Merkel’s replacement.“It is an unbelievably exciting election year,” said Thorsten Faas, a professor of political science at Berlin’s Free University. “A lot is still open, creating the possibility for movement in various directions.”A vaccine rollout stymied by shortages of doses and hampered by bureaucracy is leading many to question the competence of the chancellor’s conservative bloc. Over the past week, revelations have emerged that several conservative lawmakers earned tens of thousands of euros in exchange for arranging the sale of medical-grade masks to municipalities early in the pandemic, when supplies were very tight.Three lawmakers have resigned over the scandal, including a member of the Christian Democratic Union representing a district in Baden-Württemberg. Another lawmaker from the state of Thuringia, as well as a member of the Christian Social Union, the conservative party in the state of Bavaria, also resigned. After the payouts came to light, party leaders required all 240 conservative lawmakers to sign a declaration pledging they hadn’t used their position for financial gain in connection with fighting the pandemic.Even before the scandal broke, the conservatives were struggling in the race in Baden-Württemberg, where a popular incumbent governor for the Greens is seeking a third term in office.For the past five years, Winfried Kretschmann, 72, has led the state through a coalition of his environmental party with the conservative Christian Democrats, and voters are expected to return him to office. Polls in the weeks running up to the vote showed the Greens with the strongest support, between 33 to 35 percent. Mr. Kretschmann campaigned on his personality, under the slogan “You know me,” and promised a continuation of his party’s consensus-seeking policies of the past five years.Winfried Kretschmann, the incumbent governor of Baden-Württemberg state, left, with Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany in Heidelberg in 2019.Credit…Daniel Roland/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPolls suggest the Christian Democrats in Baden-Württemberg appear poised to take second place, setting the stage for a possible continuation of the current coalition, a combination that many observers consider a possibility for the makeup of the national Parliament.The Alternative for Germany, or AfD, is expected to hold onto the roughly 15 percent support that it won in Baden-Württemberg in 2016. Although the regional party has been plagued by internal divisions and strife among its members, it is expected to retain voters who are attracted to its nationalistic, anti-establishment stance.The Coronavirus Outbreak More

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      What Happened When Germany’s Far-Right Party Railed Against Lockdowns

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      AdvertisementContinue reading the main storyOpinionSupported byContinue reading the main storyWhat Happened When Germany’s Far-Right Party Railed Against LockdownsIt didn’t work.Ms. Sauerbrey is a contributing opinion writer who focuses on German politics, society and culture.March 12, 2021A protester against lockdown measures in Berlin last year. Alternative for Germany has sought to improve its electoral standing by embracing anti-lockdown radicalism.Credit…John Macdougall/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesBERLIN — In November, as Covid-19 cases began to rise, thousands of people gathered in Berlin to protest against restrictions. In among the conspiracy theorists and extremists were several lawmakers from the country’s main opposition party, the far-right, anti-immigration Alternative for Germany.It was striking to see legislators mingle with conspiracists in the streets before heading to the parliament for a debate. Yet it wasn’t too surprising. The party, known as AfD, has sought to improve its electoral standing ahead of the national election in September by associating with the anti-lockdown movement, an amorphous mix of conspiracy theorists, shady organizations and outraged citizens.But it hasn’t worked. In the months since the pandemic, the AfD’s support has slipped. Already struggling to reach new voters, its embrace of anti-lockdown sentiment seems to have further limited its appeal — and sped up its transformation into an extremist organization.When the pandemic reached Germany in March, the AfD’s initial response was cautious. Prominent party legislators warned about the virus, encouraged the government to act swiftly and voted for a package of economic relief. “Closing ranks is our first duty as citizens now,” Alexander Gauland, a co-leader of the party, said.But this attempt to cater to the average voter came at a cost. The party soon found itself deprived of many of its usual supporters, who took a different course, downplaying the danger and castigating the government. On Facebook and social media, the party stuttered. “The AfD,” said Johannes Hillje, a political consultant who analyzed the party’s social media performance during the pandemic, “lost its rage machine.”For a party fueled by indignation, that was a problem. As the first lockdown was tentatively lifted, through April and May, many leading AfD figures performed a 180-degree turn. No longer consensual, they fiercely railed against restrictions of any kind, which they claimed were unconstitutional as well as economically ruinous.In November, to demonstrate its defiance, the party held an in-person convention with hundreds of participants packed into a hall. That same month, an AfD legislator appeared in the parliament, where masks are mandatory, wearing one riddled with holes. And prominent party members not only attended some of the anti-lockdown protests that spread across the country last year but also adopted the protesters’ talking points, for example by calling Germany a “Corona dictatorship.” The AfD became something like the anti-lockdown party.The move made sense. By the time the pandemic arrived, the party “had started to struggle,” Kai Arzheimer, a professor of political science at the University of Mainz, told me. Migration had vanished from the top of voters’ concerns, depriving the party of its momentum. It was unclear how it might make further inroads.What’s more, the party was increasingly seen as extreme and radical. The media uncovered many ties to extremist groups such as the Identitarian Movement, which advocates ethnically homogeneous societies, while a radical internal group gained power. The AfD was considered so dangerous that the domestic intelligence service even put one wing of it under surveillance. “This has harmed the party’s potential to mobilize moderate voters,” Mr. Arzheimer said.Unable to appeal to more moderate voters, and in the midst of a pandemic that shored up support for the major parties, the party entwined itself with anti-lockdown radicalism. By conventional measures, the move has failed. National polls routinely place the party at or under 10 percent approval; two regional elections this Sunday are expected to underline the party’s electoral difficulties. The historic showing of 2017 — when the AfD became the first far-right party to enter Germany’s postwar parliament — is unlikely to be repeated, let alone surpassed.That doesn’t make the party less of a danger, though. In ways reminiscent of former President Donald Trump, the AfD is seeking to scuttle public trust in the political system. An AfD legislator suggested from the floor of the parliament that mail-in ballots were one of many “dark ideas” with which the other parties hoped to rig the vote, while a section of the party has run ads on Facebook warning against the practice.Ahead of an election where many may vote remotely — Germany’s vaccination program probably won’t be complete by fall — this amounts to a calculated strategy of subversion. Though the party’s influence is limited, the fact that 8 percent to 10 percent of the electorate seems unshakable in its support is deeply concerning.In a landmark decision last week, the country’s domestic intelligence agency put the entire AfD under surveillance, branding it an extremist organization. Whether it’s right to do so — and whether the order, which was suspended and is under legal challenge, will be enacted — is hard to know. But the AfD, and the danger it potentially poses to Germany’s democracy, is not going anywhere.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram.AdvertisementContinue reading the main story More