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      Guatemala’s Election: What to Know About the Candidates, Issues and Results

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      A former first lady and an anticorruption candidate are on the ballot in a runoff contest.Guatemala is holding a runoff presidential election on Sunday in which an anticorruption crusader is vying against a former first lady aligned with the country’s conservative political establishment to lead Central America’s most populous nation.The vote comes after a tumultuous first round in June, in which judicial leaders had barred several candidates viewed as threats to the country’s ruling elites.After the insurgent antigraft candidate Bernardo Arévalo unexpectedly advanced to the runoff, the election is emerging as a potential landmark moment in Central America’s largest country, both a leading source of migration to the United States and one of Washington’s longtime allies in the region.Guatemala’s fragile democracy, repeatedly plagued with governments engulfed in scandal, has gone from pioneering anticorruption strategies to shutting down such efforts and forcing judges and prosecutors to flee the country.Here’s what to know about Sunday’s vote.Why is this election important?The disqualifications of several contenders, rather than benefiting the establishment’s preferred candidates, opened a path for the anticorruption campaigner, Mr. Arévalo. His surprise showing in the June vote allowed him to advance to the runoff.Subsequent efforts to prevent him from running by a top prosecutor — whom the United States has placed on a list of corrupt officials — also backfired as they prompted calls from Guatemalan political figures across the ideological spectrum to allow Mr. Arévalo to remain in the race.Still, concerns have emerged that supporters of Sandra Torres, the former first lady running against him, could interfere with the voting, especially in rural areas — a worrisome possibility in a country where efforts to manipulate outcomes have marred previous elections.And while polls suggest that Mr. Arévalo could win in a landslide, the prosecutor, Rafael Curruchiche, in recent days resurrected his attempt to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party.Citing what the prosecutor described as irregularities in the process of gathering signatures for creating the party, Mr. Curruchiche said that he could suspend the party after Sunday’s election and issue arrest warrants for some of its members.If Mr. Arévalo won, such a move would quickly weaken his ability to govern. He has campaigned against such tactics, casting attention on a judicial offensive that has compelled dozens of anticorruption prosecutors and judges to flee the country.Rafael Curruchiche, a prosecutor the United States has placed on a list of corrupt officials, has threatened to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party.Johan Ordonez/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesWhat is the broader significance?The Biden administration, along with numerous Latin American governments, has urged Guatemalan officials not to manipulate the election’s outcome.The race has unfolded amid a crackdown by the current conservative administration targeting not only prosecutors and judges, but also nonprofits and journalists like José Rubén Zamora, the publisher of a leading newspaper, who was sentenced in June to up to six years in prison.While Guatemala’s president, the broadly unpopular leader Alejandro Giammattei, is prohibited by law from seeking re-election, concerns over a slide toward authoritarianism have grown more acute as he has expanded his sway over the country’s institutions.Who is Bernardo Arévalo?Bernardo Arévalo, 64, an intellectual, is the son of a Juan José Arévalo, a former president who is still exalted for creating Guatemala’s social security system and protecting free speech. After the former leader was forced into exile in the 1950s, Bernardo Arévalo was born in Uruguay and grew up in Venezuela, Chile and Mexico before returning to Guatemala as a teenager.A moderate who criticizes leftist governments like that of Nicaragua, Mr. Arévalo is nevertheless viewed in Guatemala’s conservative political landscape as the most progressive candidate to get this far since democracy was restored in 1985 after more than three decades of military rule.He has drawn much of his support from cities, and his party largely comprises urban professionals like university professors and engineers.He has made tackling corruption and impunity a centerpiece of his campaign. But he has distanced himself from rivals seeking to emulate a crackdown on gangs by the conservative president of neighboring El Salvador, Nayib Bukele, contending that Guatemala’s security challenges are different in size and scope, with gang activity concentrated in certain parts of the country. Mr. Arévalo is proposing to hire thousands of new police officers and upgrade security at prisons.Mr. Arévalo has vowed to alleviate poverty in Guatemala, one of Latin America’s most unequal countries, through a large job creation program aimed at upgrading roads and other infrastructure. He has also promised to ramp up agricultural production by providing low-interest loans to farmers.William López, 34, a teacher in Guatemala City who works at a call center, said he viewed Mr. Arévalo and his party, Movimiento Semilla (“Seed Movement”), as “an opportunity for profound change, since they’ve shown they don’t have skeletons in their closet.”Mr. Arévalo has made tackling corruption and impunity a centerpiece of his campaign.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesWho is Sandra Torres?Sandra Torres, 67, is the former wife of Álvaro Colom, who was Guatemala’s president from 2008 to 2012 and who died in January at 71. She has repeatedly tried to win the presidency, including an attempt to become his successor: In 2011, she divorced Mr. Colom in an effort to get around a law that prohibits a president’s relatives from running for office.Although she was barred from running in that contest, she was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections. After the last one, in 2019, she was detained on charges of illicit campaign financing and spent time under house arrest. But a judge closed the case late last year, opening the way for her to run.On the campaign trail, she has drawn support from her party, National Unity of Hope, which is well established around Guatemala and has many local officials in office.She has expressed admiration for Mr. Bukele, the Salvadoran leader overseeing a crackdown on gangs. She also vowed to bolster food assistance and cash transfers for poor families, building on her time as first lady when she was the face of such popular programs.Ms. Torres is thought to be polling well among rural voters and people working in the informal sector.“I like her proposals to help poor people,” said Magdalena Sag, 30, a saleswoman who attended the closing event for Ms. Torres’s campaign. “Guatemala has a lot of unemployed people who need assistance.”Ms. Torres was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections in Guatemala.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesWhat are the main issues?Infrastructure: Outside Guatemala City, the capital, the country is lacking in paved roads and other essential infrastructure. Both candidates have proposed to build thousands of miles of new roads and improve existing ones. Both have also vowed to build Guatemala City’s first subway line.Emigration: Guatemalans figure among the largest groups of migrants to the United States. Various factors fuel the emigration, including low economic opportunity, extortion, corruption among public officials and crime.Crime: Proposals to emulate El Salvador’s crackdown on gangs reflect simmering discontent with levels of violent crime in Guatemala. The number of homicides in Guatemala rose in 2022 for the second consecutive year after a relative lull during the pandemic.When are the results expected?Polls are open from 9 a.m. to 8 p.m. Eastern, with results expected within hours of polls closing.Given that neither of the two current candidates secured more than 20 percent of the vote in June, the runoff provides a chance for the winner to obtain a stamp of legitimacy. But the abstention rate, which was nearly 40 percent in the first round, will be closely watched by pro-democracy groups as a sign of broad disenchantment with Guatemala’s political system.The abstention rate on the first round of voting was nearly 40 percent, and neither candidate secured more than the 20 percent of votes needed to avoid a runoff.Daniele Volpe for The New York Times More

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      Guatemala’s Anti Corruption Crusader is on Cusp of Presidency

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      Can an intellectual on an anti-graft crusade win the presidency in a nation sliding toward authoritarianism? Guatemala is about to find out.Bernardo Arévalo had been enjoying a quiet and predictable life for nearly a decade with his family in Geneva, working on pro-democracy issues for a nonprofit. That placid existence ended after he returned to his homeland, Guatemala, and got drawn into politics.Today, whenever Mr. Arévalo appears in public, he attracts throngs to hear him assail the government’s attacks on Guatemala’s democracy.Flanked by a well-armed security detail after receiving death threats following the assassination last week of a presidential candidate in Ecuador — which sent tremors across Latin America — Mr. Arévalo wears a bullet-resistant vest and travels in an armored S.U.V.Now, in what is building into a watershed moment for Central America’s most populous country, Mr. Arévalo, a Hebrew- and French-speaking polyglot with a doctorate in sociology, is on the cusp of winning the presidency in a runoff on Sunday — an implausible scenario just months ago.“Bernardo is a glitch in the matrix,” said Edgar Ortíz Romero, a constitutional law expert and one of Guatemala’s top political risk analysts, calling Mr. Arévalo “the most progressive candidate to get this far since 1985,” when democracy was restored in the country after more than three decades of military rule.Citing moves by the nation’s electoral agency before the first round of voting in June to disqualify every serious candidate who could challenge the conservative establishment, Mr. Ortíz Romero added: “His emergence is something I never saw coming, that no one saw coming. Had that been the case, they would have disqualified him, too.”After his unexpected showing in the first round, polls suggest a landslide win for Mr. Arévalo, 64, the candidate of a small party comprised largely of urban professionals like university professors and engineers, over Sandra Torres, a former first lady considered a standard-bearer for the conservative establishment.Still, doubts persist around the results, especially because polls failed to foresee Mr. Arévalo’s earlier performance, and around whether Ms. Torres’s supporters will interfere with the voting in a country where elections are regularly marred by such attempts.Sandra Torres, a former first lady and the leading conservative candidate, has a strong base of supporters among rural voters. Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesMr. Arévalo has also come under withering attacks, including suggestions that he supports communism.Nevertheless, his surging anticorruption campaign points to a rare opening to push back against authoritarian tactics that have forced into exile dozens of judges and prosecutors focused on fighting corruption, raising fears that Guatemala is sliding into autocratic rule.His rise has been helped by deepening fatigue, in one of Latin America’s most unequal countries, with a political system in which entrenched elites enrich themselves and are seen as operating above the law.Guatemala’s current president, Alejandro Giammattei, who is prohibited by law from seeking re-election, has overseen the persecution of judges, nonprofits and journalists. His predecessor, Jimmy Morales, shut down an international body that had been prosecuting graft in Guatemala after his brother and son were arrested on corruption charges.Even Mr. Arévalo, the son of a revered Guatemalan president who is still exalted in textbooks for creating the country’s social security system and guaranteeing freedom of speech, seems a little surprised by the turn of events.In an interview this week at his aging art-deco home in a middle-class neighborhood in the capital, Guatemala City, Mr. Arévalo, goateed and wearing a blue blazer and colorful socks, recounted how he arrived at this moment.Mr. Arévalo is the son of a revered former president who established social security in Guatemala.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesBorn in Montevideo, Uruguay, where his father took his family to live in exile after his successor as president was toppled in a 1954 C.I.A.-backed coup, Mr. Arévalo was raised in Venezuela, Mexico and Chile before his family could return to Guatemala, where he attended high school.After his father became ambassador to Israel, Mr. Arévalo started wandering again. He learned Hebrew as an undergraduate at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, and studied political sociology in Europe, obtaining a doctorate at Utrecht University in the Netherlands. He returned to Guatemala to work as a diplomat, eventually becoming ambassador to Spain.Then he moved his family to Switzerland, where Mr. Arévalo worked for Interpeace, a nonprofit assisting post-conflict societies. Based in Geneva, he occasionally worked in African countries before deciding to return to Guatemala in 2013.“I was never interested in electoral politics,” Mr. Arévalo said. But he also didn’t want to live out his days far from Guatemala. “I wanted to get involved.”When anticorruption protests exploded in 2015, leading to the president at the time resigning and then being jailed, Mr. Arévalo joined academics, writers and intellectuals to figure out ways to seize on the momentum. While some wanted to create a new political party, Mr. Arévalo sought to establish a research institute, recalled Román Castellanos, now a member of Congress.“Those wanting the party won the debate,” said Mr. Castellanos, who represents Semilla, or Seed, the party born from those discussions.Taking advantage of name recognition, Mr. Arévalo ran for elected office in 2019 for the first time, winning a seat for Semilla in Congress.He said he was not planning to run for president until internal voting in Semilla chose him as the party’s candidate. He was driving himself in an unarmored car to campaign events and polling in the low single digits before stunning his opponents — and even many of his supporters — when he placed second in the June election.Supporters of Mr. Arévalo gathered last month in Guatemala City. Mr. Arevalo could become the country’s first progressive leader in four decades.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesLuis von Ahn, the Guatemalan founder of the language-learning app Duolingo, said he was impressed by Mr. Arévalo’s intelligence and idealism, but when Semilla reached out for financing, he said no, believing the campaign would never gain traction.“I’m not in the practice of wasting money,” Mr. von Ahn said, describing Guatemala as a “land of sharks.” At the time, he said, he saw Mr. Arévalo as “your uncle who is an academic, who means well, but has no chance.”But after Mr. Arévalo made it to the second round, Mr. von Ahn changed his mind and contributed $100,000 to the party. He has also publicly offered to pay airfare for some of Mr. Arévalo’s most virulent critics, including officials entangled in graft scandals, to leave Guatemala, preferably for Panama, a historic destination for disgraced politicians.Guatemala’s conservative establishment has mounted an intense effort to undermine Mr. Arévalo. Shortly after the first round, Rafael Curruchiche, a prosecutor who has himself been placed by the United States on a list of corrupt Central American officials, sought to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party.Rafael Curruchiche, a prosecutor who has been labeled as corrupt by the U.S. government, has sought to suspend Mr. Arévalo’s party, claiming irregularities in signatures gathered by the party.Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesBut that move backfired, producing calls across the ideological spectrum in Guatemala for Mr. Arévalo to be allowed to run.Still, Mr. Curruchiche this week resurrected his plan, citing allegations of irregularities in Semilla’s gathering of signatures and warning that arrests could take place after Sunday’s voting.That’s just one challenge Mr. Arévalo faces. While he leads in the polls and is forecast to perform well in most of Guatemala’s cities, Ms. Torres, the former first lady, has her own considerable base of support, especially among rural voters who embrace her calls to expand social programs, including cash transfers to the poor.Mr. Arévalo promises to create a large public jobs program by improving services like water sanitation and also proposes increasing cash transfers, but has made rooting out corruption the centerpiece of his campaign.Smear campaigns on social media, especially on TikTok and X, formerly known as Twitter, have sought to paint Mr. Arévalo as supporting abortion and gay marriage.Ms. Torres also used an anti-gay slur to refer to Mr. Arévalo’s supporters (she later said she was not homophobic). Influential evangelical Christian pastors have insinuated that Mr. Arévalo supports communism and plans to close churches.But Mr. Arévalo noted in the interview that his party stood alone in Guatemala’s Congress in seeking to condemn the authoritarian tactics of Nicaragua’s nominally leftist government.Mr. Arévalo’s ascent has been helped by the questionable disqualification of other opposition candidates by the country’s electoral body. Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesMr. Arévalo added that he has no plans to legalize abortion or gay marriage. Still, if elected, he said his government would “not permit discrimination against people because of their sexual orientation.”The campaign has changed his life in other ways. Mr. Arévalo said he had recently become aware that Guatemala’s Department of Civil Intelligence, known as DIGICI, was “monitoring me and other people in this movement on orders of superiors.” A spokesman for the ministry overseeing the intelligence agency said Mr. Arévalo was not under surveillance.As concerns for his safety have grown in the campaign’s waning days, Mr. Arévalo has increased his security detail.While his campaign has resonated among younger, urban Guatemalans, he said he has had to lean on his political lineage to reach other voters.“Here we don’t have Lincolns or FDR’s, those figures who construct a sense of national belonging,” he said. “Even so, the figure of my father remains alive. That is crucial.” More

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      Elecciones en Guatemala: incertidumbre tras la suspensión de Movimiento Semilla

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      La medida pone en riesgo la candidatura presidencial de Bernardo Arévalo, un contendiente anticorrupción que sorprendió en la primera vuelta y pasó al balotaje.Las elecciones presidenciales de Guatemala se vieron envueltas en una tormenta política la noche del miércoles luego de que un fiscal suspendió la personalidad jurídica del partido de un candidato anticorrupción en ascenso, lo que pone en riesgo su intento de participar en la segunda vuelta y posiblemente asesta un golpe a una democracia ya en crispación.La medida podría evitar que Bernardo Arévalo, un congresista que remeció a la clase política en junio con un apoyo sorpresivo en las urnas que lo catapultó a la segunda vuelta del 20 de agosto, se enfrente a Sandra Torres, otrora primera dama.Rafael Curruchiche, el fiscal que integró el caso para suspender al partido, ha sido a su vez incluido en una lista de Estados Unidos de funcionarios centroamericanos corruptos por obstaculizar investigaciones de corrupción.Este suceso añade más tensión al sistema político de Guatemala, luego de que se impidiera la participación de varios de los principales candidatos a la presidencia, que eran percibidos como una amenaza para las élites políticas y económicas, además de los ataques a la libertad de prensa y el exilio forzado de decenas de fiscales y jueces dedicados a combatir la corrupción.“Nos están robando las elecciones, a plena luz del día, usando en contra las propias instituciones que nos deberían de proteger”, dijo en Twitter Gustavo Marroquín, profesor de historia y columnista.La medida del fiscal suscitó confusión e indignación en la capital de Guatemala, donde cientos de personas se reunieron a protestar el miércoles poco después del anuncio de Curruchiche. El fiscal tomó la decisión cuando las autoridades electorales de Guatemala se preparaban para desestimar oficialmente los intentos de postergar la segunda vuelta y permitir que las votaciones transcurrieran de acuerdo a lo planeado.Cuando se le preguntó por las medidas del fiscal contra el partido de Arévalo, la magistrada presidenta de la autoridad electoral, Irma Elizabeth Palencia, dijo que “es algo que nos preocupa”.El principal funcionario del Departamento de Estado de EE. UU. para el Hemisferio Occidental, Brian Nichols, dijo en Twitter que el gobierno estadounidense estaba “profundamente preocupado” por lo que describió como las “amenazas a la democracia electoral de Guatemala” por parte de Curruchiche. “Las instituciones deben respetar la voluntad de los votantes”, añadió Nichols.El partido de Arévalo puede apelar el fallo, lo cual desencadenaría una batalla legal y podría plantear el tema a la corte constitucional más alta de Guatemala.Curruchiche indicó que el caso contra el partido de Arévalo, Movimiento Semilla, involucraba denuncias de que había usado firmas fraudulentas para calificar como partido político. Luego de que su despacho investigó el caso, un juez penal ordenó la suspensión del registro de Semilla, lo que podría prohibir su participación, y la de Arévalo, en la segunda vuelta.Arévalo dijo a CNN en Español que procedería con su candidatura y asegura que según la ley guatemalteca los partidos políticos no pueden ser suspendidos durante un proceso electoral (la primera vuelta de votación se llevó a cabo el 25 de junio y se espera que la segunda vuelta sea el 20 de agosto).“Los poderosos ya no quieren que el pueblo decida libremente su futuro, pero los vamos a vencer”, dijo Arévalo en Twitter la noche del miércoles.Los juristas cuestionaron la decisión de Curruchiche, aliado del presidente saliente, Alejandro Giammattei. Un experto en derecho constitucional, Edgar Ortiz Romero, dijo que la medida estaba “violando abiertamente el orden legal”, ya que un juez de lo penal no puede suspender el registro de un partido bajo la ley electoral guatemalteca.“Creo que esto nos pone en el triste grupo de países con rasgos autoritarios más avanzados donde se usa el sistema legal para atacar a opositores”, dijo Ortiz Romero.Mirador Electoral, un grupo independiente de vigilancia electoral, dijo en un comunicado que la suspensión “intenta consumar un golpe electoral equivalente a un golpe de Estado en el país”.Emiliano Rodríguez Mega es un investigador reportero del Times en Ciudad de México. Cubre México, Centroamérica y el Caribe. Más de Emiliano Rodríguez Mega.Simon Romero es corresponsal nacional y cubre el suroeste de Estados Unidos. Ha sido jefe de las corresponsalías del Times en Brasil, los Andes y corresponsal internacional de energía. Más de Simon Romero. More

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      Guatemala’s Top Party Is Suspended, Putting Election Into Turmoil

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      The move threatens the presidential bid of Bernardo Arévalo, an anticorruption candidate who made a surprisingly strong showing in the initial voting, propelling him into a runoff.Guatemala’s presidential election was thrown into turmoil Wednesday night after a top prosecutor moved to suspend the party of a surging anticorruption candidate, threatening his bid to take part in a runoff and potentially dealing a severe blow to the country’s already fraying democracy.The move could prevent Bernardo Arévalo, a lawmaker who jolted Guatemala’s political class in June with a surprise showing propelling him in the Aug. 20 runoff, from competing against Sandra Torres, a former first lady.Rafael Curruchiche, the prosecutor who mounted the case to suspend the party, has himself been listed among corrupt Central American officials by the United States for obstructing corruption inquiries.The development places even greater stress on Guatemala’s political system, after the barring of several top presidential candidates who were viewed as threatening to the political and economic establishment, assaults on press freedom and the forced exile of dozens of prosecutors and judges focused on curbing corruption.“They are stealing the election in broad daylight, using one of the very institutions which is supposed to protect us,” Gustavo Marroquín, a history professor and columnist, said on Twitter.The prosecutor’s move fueled confusion and anger in Guatemala’s capital, where hundreds of people gathered in protest Wednesday shortly after Mr. Curruchiche’s announcement. The prosecutor took the action as Guatemala’s election authority was preparing to officially dismiss efforts to delay the runoff, allowing the vote to proceed as planned.When asked by reporters about the prosecutor’s move against Mr. Arévalo’s party, Irma Elizabeth Palencia, the election authority’s leader, said, “It is definitely something that worries us.”Brian Nichols, the top State Department official for the Western Hemisphere, said on Twitter that the United States government was “deeply concerned” by what he described as Mr. Curruchiche’s “threats to Guatemala’s electoral democracy.” “Institutions must respect the will of voters,” Mr. Nichols added.Mr. Arévalo’s party can appeal the ruling, setting the stage for a legal battle and potentially sending the issue to Guatemala’s top constitutional court.Mr. Curruchiche said the case against Mr. Arévalo’s party, called Semilla, or Seed, involved claims that it used fraudulent signatures to qualify as a political party. After his office looked into the case, a criminal judge ordered the suspension of Semilla’s registration, which could effectively prohibit the party, and Mr. Arévalo, from competing in the runoff.Speaking on CNN en Español, Mr. Arévalo said he would proceed with his candidacy, contending that under Guatemalan law political parties cannot be suspended during an electoral process (the first round of voting took place on June 25 and the runoff is set for Aug. 20).“The powerful no longer want the people to freely decide their future, but we will defeat them,” Mr. Arévalo also said on Twitter on Wednesday night.Legal experts questioned the move by Mr. Curruchiche, an ally of the outgoing president, Alejandro Giammattei. Edgar Ortiz Romero, a constitutional law expert, said the move was “absolutely illegal” since a criminal judge cannot suspend a party’s registration under Guatemalan election laws.“This places us in the sad group of countries with advanced authoritarian features in which the legal system is used to attack opponents,” Mr. Ortiz Romero said.The independent watchdog group Mirador Electoral said in a statement that the suspension “attempts to consummate an electoral coup equivalent to a coup d’état.” More

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      ¿Guatemala perderá la batalla por la democracia?

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      La democracia de Guatemala está bajo ataque. En los últimos cuatro años, un grupo de élites poderosas vinculadas con el crimen organizado, conocido como el “pacto de corruptos”, ha ido desmantelando las estructuras democráticas de Guatemala mediante la cooptación de las instituciones judiciales y el arresto y exilio de fiscales, jueces, periodistas y activistas en favor de la democracia. Ahora, como siguiente paso para consolidar su poder, están tratando de manipular las votaciones nacionales, que están en proceso.De cara a las elecciones de 2023, el presidente Alejandro Giammattei nombró en las cortes y en el Tribunal Supremo Electoral funcionarios fieles a él. Luego, el régimen gobernante y sus aliados usaron estas entidades para distorsionar la Constitución y corromper los procesos electorales con la finalidad de inclinar la balanza política a su favor. El poder judicial hizo lo propio: anuló una prohibición constitucional para permitir que la hija de un exdictador aspirara a la presidencia, permitió que se postularan como candidatos algunos aliados del régimen que han sido acusados y condenados por delitos y descalificó a sus rivales con base en cargos fabricados.Es por eso que ni siquiera los observadores más experimentados de la política guatemalteca podrían haber predicho que Bernardo Arévalo —un reformista moderado que se postuló con una plataforma anticorrupción y que tenía tan solo el 3 por ciento en las encuestas antes de la votación— sería uno de los dos candidatos con más votos en la primera vuelta de las elecciones presidenciales, celebrada el 25 de junio. Con el 12 por ciento de los votos, obtuvo un lugar en la segunda vuelta electoral del próximo mes. Su rival, Sandra Torres, del partido Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza, quien consiguió casi el 16 por ciento de los votos, fue primera dama, se ha postulado a la presidencia en tres ocasiones y está alineada con el “pacto de corruptos”. En 2019, se le acusó de financiamiento ilegal de campaña, y a su partido se le ha vinculado con el crimen organizado.El 1 de julio, la Corte de Constitucionalidad de Guatemala ordenó una nueva revisión de las actas donde se certificaron las votaciones en la primera vuelta presidencial luego de que el partido de Torres y sus aliados impugnaron los resultados, incluso cuando otros candidatos ya los aceptaron y las misiones internacionales y nacionales de observación electoral declararon que el proceso fue justo y limpio. Muchos temen que este fallo pueda sentar las bases para más impugnaciones falsas que podrían llegar a anular los resultados, demorar la segunda vuelta o excluir a Arévalo de la contienda. Las denuncias de fraude hacen recordar las que circulaban en Estados Unidos tras la victoria del presidente Joe Biden en 2020, aunque, con todo el aparato judicial de su lado, los negacionistas de las elecciones en Guatemala tienen más probabilidades de salirse con la suya.La situación está generando incertidumbre política, pero los guatemaltecos han demostrado que no están dispuestos a permitir que su democracia muera así de fácil. Los autócratas del país han desplegado toda la fuerza del Estado para robarse las elecciones, pero no son los únicos que se están movilizando. Los ciudadanos están alzando la voz para defender su derecho al voto. Si triunfan, habrán demostrado que es posible resistirse al ascenso del autoritarismo. Este podría ser un momento crítico para los guatemaltecos, uno que resuene en otras partes del mundo donde la democracia está bajo amenaza.Arévalo, exdiplomático, sociólogo y actual diputado en el Congreso de la República, surgió en un paisaje abarrotado de candidatos presidenciales. Venció a su contrincante más cercano, el candidato del partido Vamos de Giammattei, por más de 200.000 votos. Arévalo es miembro del partido de centro Movimiento Semilla, cuyos integrantes tienden a ser jóvenes y está conformado en su mayoría por estudiantes universitarios, profesores, ingenieros y propietarios de pequeñas empresas.Bernardo Arévalo de Movimiento Semilla celebrando los resultados electorales con simpatizantes en Ciudad de Guatemala el 26 de junio.Moises Castillo/Associated PressSandra Torres del partido Unidad Nacional de la Esperanza en Ciudad de Guatemala el 25 de junio.Luis Acosta/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesPese a ser relativamente desconocido, es el hijo del estimado expresidente Juan José Arévalo, quien en a mediados de la década de 1940 inició un periodo de gobierno reformista en Guatemala conocido como la primavera democrática. En 1954, un golpe de Estado respaldado por la CIA puso un fin abrupto a ese proyecto y dio paso a cuatro décadas de guerra y dictadura represiva.Dado el legado político de su padre, la oleada de popularidad de Arévalo y Semilla en este momento, si bien causa sorpresa, responde a una lógica colectiva. El partido se formó como respuesta a la serie de escándalos de corrupción que convulsionó a Guatemala en 2015. Como movimiento, encauzó el descontento popular para formar un consenso amplio entre quienes se sentían decepcionados de los políticos depredadores y los que estaban desesperados por un futuro político distinto. Tras convertirse en un partido político en 2018, Semilla se ha mantenido fiel a su misión de combatir la impunidad y fortalecer la democracia.En la primera vuelta, demostró ser una alternativa conveniente para los electores frustrados. Aunque el partido en el poder trató de eclipsar a los candidatos ajenos a la clase política dominante y preservar el statu quo, sus maniobras antidemocráticas fueron contraproducentes. Muchos esperaban que las tasas de abstención fueran más altas de lo normal, pero al final el 60 por ciento de los guatemaltecos acudió a las urnas. Casi una cuarta parte de quienes se presentaron votaron en blanco o anularon su boleta para manifestar su enojo ante lo que perciben como un sistema amañado. Ellos, junto con quienes decidieron votar por el último candidato reformista que quedaba, impulsaron a Arévalo a la segunda vuelta.El éxito de Semilla y el contraataque que suscitó incitaron un movimiento ciudadano que está trabajando para asegurarse de que la voluntad del pueblo sea escuchada. Estos ciudadanos han iniciado una campaña en redes sociales, donde publican los registros de las mesas electorales escritos a mano para rebatir las denuncias de fraude. Hay voluntarios supervisando las auditorías del conteo de votos que ordenó la corte. Las organizaciones indígenas prometieron realizar manifestaciones pacíficas en todo el país si las autoridades intentan manipular las elecciones. Hasta miembros de una comunidad empresarial históricamente conservadora declararon su apoyo al movimiento prodemocrático, con un llamado a respetar los resultados electorales y a garantizar que el proceso de la segunda vuelta electoral, programada para el 20 de agosto, transcurra según lo planeado.Ciudadanos protestaron frente al Tribunal Supremo Electoral contra la suspensión de los resultados de las elecciones, en Ciudad de Guatemala este lunes.Esteban Biba/EPA vía ShutterstockLa comunidad internacional también respalda esta iniciativa civil. La Unión Europea, la Organización de los Estados Americanos e incluso Estados Unidos, que se ha mostrado reacio a enfrentarse públicamente con el gobierno de Giammattei, afirmaron la legitimidad de los resultados y denunciaron la interferencia electoral. Otras personas que respaldan la democracia en América Central también están apoyando el movimiento ciudadano emergente en Guatemala, el cual podría servir de modelo para las iniciativas de resistencia ante sus propios dirigentes cada vez más autocráticos.Guatemala encarará obstáculos políticos profundos en las próximas semanas. Aunque los resultados electorales se declaren válidos, Arévalo tendrá que consolidar una alianza amplia antes de la segunda vuelta que pueda unificarse en torno a una apuesta política común, algo que no será nada sencillo en un país que desde hace mucho vive con divisiones étnicas, socioeconómicas e ideológicas.Pero el país ya ha superado obstáculos como estos. Las protestas contra la corrupción de 2015 convocaron a un movimiento popular diverso que derrocó a un presidente y a una vicepresidenta en funciones. Si bien los ocho años transcurridos desde entonces han traído retrocesos brutales hacia la autocracia, la paciencia y perseverancia de los líderes de oposición prepararon el camino para este nuevo impulso democrático.Aun si el calendario electoral continúa según lo planeado y se le permite contender a Arévalo, la campaña de desinformación que pretende vilipendiarlo y sembrar miedo solo se va a intensificar. Además, si logra ganar en la segunda vuelta, su bancada minoritaria en el Congreso y el arraigado poder institucional de la élite corrupta dificultarán sus intentos de gobernar con eficacia.Pero ya habrá tiempo para preocuparnos por las complicadas labores de la gobernanza. Por ahora, los riesgos políticos son más grandes que nunca. Si los negacionistas de las elecciones prevalecen, Guatemala habrá perdido la batalla por la democracia. Pero si sus defensores tienen éxito, esto supondrá un duro golpe para detener la regresión en un país donde, no hace mucho, el ímpetu autócrata parecía irreversible.Anita Isaacs es profesora de ciencias políticas en Haverford College. Rachel A. Schwartz es profesora de estudios internacionales y regionales en la Universidad de Oklahoma, además de autora del libro Undermining the State From Within: The Institutional Legacies of Civil War in Central America. Álvaro Montenegro es un periodista guatemalteco. More

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      Guatemalan Election Deniers Are Trying to Overturn Democracy

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      Guatemala’s democracy is under assault. Over the past four years, a group of powerful elites tied to organized crime, known as the “pact of the corrupt,” has been steadily dismantling Guatemala’s democratic guardrails by co-opting judicial institutions and arresting and exiling prosecutors, judges, journalists and pro-democracy activists. Now, in their next step to consolidate power, they are trying to manipulate the national elections that are underway.In anticipation of the 2023 elections, President Alejandro Giammattei packed the courts and the electoral tribunal with loyalists. The ruling regime and its allies then enlisted these entities to distort the Constitution and tamper with election procedures to tilt the political playing field in their favor. The judicial sector delivered — overruling a constitutional ban to permit the daughter of a former dictator to run, certifying the candidacies of regime allies charged and convicted of crimes and disqualifying rivals based on manufactured charges of malfeasance.That’s why not even the most seasoned observers of Guatemalan politics could have predicted that Bernardo Arévalo, a moderate reformist championing an anti-corruption platform and polling at just 3 percent before the vote, would be one of the two top finishers in the June 25 general elections, securing 12 percent of the vote and a spot in the runoff next month. His rival, Sandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope party, who garnered nearly 16 percent of the vote, is a former first lady and three-time presidential contender and is aligned with the “pact of the corrupt.” In 2019, she was indicted on a charge of illicit campaign financing, and her party has been linked to organized crime.On July 1, the Constitutional Court ordered electoral authorities’ ballots from the first-round presidential election to be reviewed after Ms. Torres’s party and allies challenged the results — even though other candidates have already conceded and international and domestic observer missions deemed the elections clean. Many fear the ruling could pave the way for additional spurious challenges that could eventually overturn the results, delay the second round or exclude Mr. Arévalo from competing altogether. The cries of fraud echo those in the United States after President Biden’s 2020 victory, although, with the entire judicial system on their side, Guatemala’s election deniers stand a better chance of pulling it off.The situation has fueled political uncertainty, but Guatemalans have shown that they aren’t willing to let their democracy die without a fight. Though the country’s autocrats have now deployed the full force of the state to steal the elections, they are not the only people mobilizing. Ordinary citizens are raising their voices in defense of their sacred right to vote. If they triumph, they will have shown that it is possible to resist rising authoritarianism. This could be Guatemalans’ moment — and one that reverberates in other parts of the world where democracy is under threat.Mr. Arévalo, a former diplomat, sociologist and current representative in the national legislature, emerged from the middle of the crowded presidential field. He beat the next closest challenger, Mr. Giammattei’s Vamos party candidate, by over 200,000 votes. Mr. Arévalo is a member of the centrist Movimiento Semilla, or “seed movement,” party, which skews young and is made up largely of university students, professors, engineers and small-business owners.Bernardo Arévalo of the Semilla party celebrating the election results with supporters in Guatemala City on June 26.Moises Castillo/Associated PressSandra Torres of the National Unity of Hope party in Guatemala City on June 25.Luis Acosta/Agence France-Presse — Getty ImagesThough relatively unknown, he is also the son of the beloved former president Juan José Arévalo, who in the 1940s initiated Guatemala’s decade of reformist government known as the Democratic Spring. A 1954 C.I.A.-backed coup abruptly ended that experiment and ushered in four decades of war and repressive dictatorial rule.Given his father’s political legacy, Mr. Arévalo’s and Semilla’s surge of popularity at this moment, while surprising, is fitting. The party formed in the wake of corruption scandals that convulsed Guatemala in 2015. As a movement, it channeled popular discontent, seeking to build a broad consensus among those disillusioned with predatory politicians and desperate for a different political future. After transitioning to a political party in 2018, Semilla has remained true to its mission, aiming to combat impunity and strengthen democracy.Last month, it proved to be a welcome alternative for frustrated voters. Though the ruling party tried to sideline outsider candidates and preserve the political status quo, its anti-democratic maneuvering backfired. Many expected abstention rates to be higher than usual, but in the end 60 percent of Guatemalans turned out to vote. Nearly a quarter of those who voted cast a blank or voided ballot to register their anger at what they perceived as a rigged system. This, combined with those who chose to vote for the last reformist candidate standing, propelled Mr. Arévalo into the runoff round.Semilla’s success and the subsequent backlash have galvanized a citizen-led movement that is now working to ensure that the will of the people is heard. These citizens have started a social media campaign, posting the handwritten, precinct-level vote registries challenging claims of fraud. Volunteers are observing the court-mandated auditing of vote tallies. Indigenous organizations have vowed to stage peaceful, countrywide demonstrations if the courts attempts to manipulate the election. Even stalwart members of the historically conservative business community have endorsed the pro-democracy movement, urging respect for the electoral results and demanding that the runoff proceeds on Aug. 20 according to plan.Citizens protested in front of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal against the measure to suspend the results of the general election, in Guatemala City on Monday.Esteban Biba/EPA, via ShutterstockThe international community is rallying behind them. The European Union, the Organization of American States and even the United States, which has been reluctant to publicly clash with the Giammattei government, have affirmed the legitimacy of the results and denounced electoral interference. Fellow democrats in Central America are also rooting for Guatemala’s emergent civic movement, which could provide a blueprint for efforts to resist their own increasingly autocratic leaders.Guatemala faces profound political hurdles in the weeks ahead. Even if the court declares the results to be valid, Mr. Arévalo will have to consolidate a broad alliance before the runoff that can unite around a shared political project — no easy feat in a country long divided along ethnic, socioeconomic and ideological lines. But it has surmounted these obstacles before. The 2015 anti-corruption protests marshaled a diverse popular movement that toppled a sitting president and vice president. Though the eight years since then have brought steep autocratic regressions, the patience and persistence of opposition leaders laid the foundations for this new democratic moment.Even if the electoral timetable proceeds according to schedule and Mr. Arévalo is allowed to run, the disinformation campaign to vilify him and stoke fear will only intensify. And if he can pull off a second-round victory, his minority congressional delegation and the entrenched institutional power of the corrupt elite will hinder his efforts to govern effectively.But the messy work of democratic governance is for another day. For now, the political stakes could not be higher. If the election deniers succeed, Guatemala will have lost the battle for democracy. But if its defenders prevail, democratic backsliding will have been dealt a powerful blow in a country where not long ago, the autocratic momentum seemed irreversible.Anita Isaacs is a professor of political science at Haverford College. Rachel A. Schwartz is professor of international and area studies at the University of Oklahoma. She is the author of “Undermining the State From Within: The Institutional Legacies of Civil War in Central America.” Álvaro Montenegro is a Guatemalan journalist.The Times is committed to publishing a diversity of letters to the editor. We’d like to hear what you think about this or any of our articles. Here are some tips. And here’s our email: letters@nytimes.com.Follow The New York Times Opinion section on Facebook, Twitter (@NYTopinion) and Instagram. More

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      Elecciones en Guatemala: qué significa el avance de Semilla

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      Bernardo Arévalo, un legislador de extracción académica, sorprendió a la clase política guatemalteca al avanzar a la segunda vuelta junto con Sandra Torres, otrora primera dama.Jueces y fiscales obligados a huir del país. Medios de comunicación independientes bajo ataque. Importantes candidatos presidenciales descalificados para la contienda electoral.En las semanas previas a las elecciones presidenciales de Guatemala aparecieron varias señales de advertencia hacia la tambaleante democracia en el país más poblado de América Central. Pero la votación del domingo provocó una sacudida sísmica: un candidato cuya campaña se centró en erradicar la corrupción obtuvo suficientes votos para forzar una segunda vuelta, lo que asestó un golpe impactante a la clase política dominante del país.Bernardo Arévalo, un legislador y catedrático con títulos en filosofía y antropología de 64 años, obtuvo el 12 por ciento de los votos al escrutarse el 98 por ciento de los sufragios de la primera vuelta del domingo, según informaron las autoridades electorales el lunes.Sandra Torres, de 67 años y quien fuera primera dama y es considerada abanderada del conservadurismo, lideraba con casi el 16 por ciento de los votos.A pesar de obtener un porcentaje tan bajo de los votos, ya que muchos guatemaltecos dejaron sus boletas en blanco o emitieron votos nulos, Torres y Arévalo estuvieron en los primeros dos puestos y se enfrentarán en una segunda vuelta el 20 de agosto, ya que la mayoría de los guatemaltecos no votó, dejó su papeleta en blanco o la vició.De hecho, el 24 por ciento de las boletas en blanco o anuladas fue mucho mayor que el total de votos de cualquiera de los candidatos. Además, el 40 por ciento de los votantes no participó en las elecciones del domingo, mientras que el 24 por ciento de las papeletas quedaron en blanco o fueron viciadas, lo que significa que casi dos terceras partes del electorado eligió no votar por ninguno de los candidatos.El sorpresivo respaldo para Arévalo, además de la baja participación electoral, es muestra del alto nivel de decepción en el sistema político guatemalteco, comentaron los analistas electorales. El gobierno ha sido cuestionado por sus tácticas cada vez más autoritarias, que han estado dirigidas en contra de los medios de comunicación y han obligado a exiliarse a decenas de jueces y fiscales especializados en corrupción“Estamos viendo cómo la población expresa cansancio con un sistema, con una forma de política y de gobierno”, dijo Edie Cux, director de Citizen Action, un grupo sin fines de lucro que formó parte de una alianza de supervisión del proceso electoral. “La población está exigiendo reformas”.Sandra Torres quedó en primer lugar con casi el 16 por ciento de los votos.Daniele Volpe para The New York TimesDos de los candidatos del establishment que eran considerados como favoritos —Edmond Mulet, un exdiplomático, y Zury Ríos, hija de un exdictador condenado por genocidio— quedaron en el quinto y sexto lugar.Previo a las votaciones del domingo, la autoridad nacional electoral había descalificado al menos a cuatro candidatos, entre ellos Carlos Pineda, un favorito temperamental que había inquietado a la clase política dominante, así como a Thelma Cabrera, una activista que intentaba unir a los votantes indígenas de Guatemala, que por mucho tiempo han sido marginados.La campaña estuvo dominada por un puñado de temas recurrentes, entre ellos el aumento de la violencia delincuencial y los desafíos económicos en un país con una de las tasas más altas de pobreza y desigualdad en América Latina.Torres, que quedó en segundo lugar en las dos elecciones presidenciales más recientes, ha prometido atacar la violencia con una estrategia que imita a la empleada en el vecino país de El Salvador a fin de derrotar a las pandillas.Sin embargo, fue Arévalo, a menudo apodado Tío Bernie, e hijo de un presidente recordado con cariño por muchos guatemaltecos por haber creado el sistema de seguridad social en la década de 1940, quien al parecer salió de la nada para lograr suficiente apoyo y pasar a la segunda vuelta. El liderazgo de Semilla, su partido, está conformado en su mayoría por profesionales urbanos, como profesores universitarios, ingenieros y dueños de pequeñas empresas.Loren Giordano, una diseñadora gráfica y emprendedora de 33 años en ciudad de Guatemala, dijo que había votado por Arévalo porque su partido promueve medidas que ella apoya, como la propuesta legislativa para gastar en la capacitación de oncólogos, equipo médico y medicamentos. Pero la medida no había sido aprobada.Sin embargo, Giordano no confía en que el apoyo que Arévalo consiguió el domingo resulte en mejoras tangibles, incluso si gana la presidencia.“Apoyo a Semilla y creo que sí quieren hacer un cambio, pero no creo que el sistema lo permita”, comentó previo a que se conocieran los resultados. “Parece utópico pensar que tendremos un candidato que no esté involucrado en corrupción y narcopolítica”.Caracterizándose como un socialdemócrata progresista, Arévalo llamó la atención en su campaña hacia el legado de su padre, quien también fue conocido por promover la libertad de expresión y de prensa y por alentar a los trabajadores organizados a desempeñar un papel político en el país.Arévalo nació en Montevideo, Uruguay, donde vivía su familia mientras su padre estaba en el exilio, luego de que su sucesor en la presidencia fuera derrocado en un golpe de Estado en 1954. Creció en distintas partes de América del Sur hasta los 15 años, cuando la familia regresó a Guatemala.A pesar de su inesperado desempeño, Arévalo enfrenta una carrera cuesta arriba contra Torres en las próximas semanas. Ella tiene más reconocimiento y se apoya en su experiencia como primera dama, cuando fue el rostro de programas populares contra la pobreza, entre ellas las ayudas alimentarias y las transferencias de efectivo para las familias desfavorecidas.Torres también puede contar con el apoyo de una clase dirigente poco dispuesta a alterar el statu quo, representada por el presidente Alejandro Giammattei, a quien la ley prohíbe presentarse a la reelección para un segundo mandato. Otros países de la región, entre los que destaca México, tienen leyes similares.Durante el mandato de Giammattei, Guatemala ha pasado de ser un modelo regional por sus esfuerzos contra la corrupción a un país que, como varios de sus vecinos, ha socavado las normas democráticas.Pero Arévalo también ha montado con habilidad una campaña insurgente, al mezclar el despliegue de memes con un posicionamiento serio en temas como la mejora de los servicios de salud pública. Ha dicho en repetidas ocasiones que contrataría a fiscales y jueces que se habían visto obligados a salir de Guatemala como asesores para que le ayuden a combatir la corrupción.Algunas figuras prominentes del establishment cuestionaron los resultados de Arévalo, argumentando que tenían más que ver con otros factores que con su atractivo.“Las encuestas no son creíbles”, escribió en Twitter Ricardo Méndez Ruiz, presidente de la Fundación Contra el Terrorismo, una organización de extrema derecha que ha buscado desacreditar a jueces y fiscales anticorrupción. “El resultado es responsabilidad de quienes incitaron al voto nulo. A ellos más que a sus votantes, tiene que darle las gracias Arévalo”.Aun así, un país donde la fórmula electoral ganadora suele tener campañas con mucho financiamiento, tiempo significativo en los canales de televisión nacionales y la bendición de las élites económicas, Arévalo no tenía “nada de eso”, dijo Marielos Chang, politóloga de la Universidad del Valle en Ciudad de Guatemala.“Nadie hubiera creído cuando comenzó la campaña presidencial hace tres meses que Bernardo Arévalo tendría suficientes votos para avanzar”, dijo.Simon Romero es corresponsal nacional y cubre el Suroeste de Estados Unidos. Ha sido jefe de las corresponsalías del Times en Brasil, los Andes y corresponsal internacional de energía. @viaSimonRomero More

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      Arevalo Upends Guatemalan Presidential Election, Advancing to a Runoff

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      Bernardo Arévalo, a professorial lawmaker, stunned Guatemala’s establishment by advancing to a second round against Sandra Torres, a former first lady.Judges and prosecutors driven from the country. Independent news media under attack. Top presidential candidates barred from running.Warning signs of the teetering democracy in Central America’s most populous country flashed in the weeks leading up to Guatemala’s presidential election. But the vote on Sunday delivered a seismic jolt: a candidate whose campaign centered on rooting out corruption won enough votes to force a runoff, delivering a stunning blow to the country’s political ruling class.Bernardo Arévalo, 64, a professorial lawmaker with degrees in philosophy and anthropology, won 12 percent of the vote, with 98 percent of votes counted in Sunday’s first round, the electoral authority said on Monday.Sandra Torres, 67, a former first lady considered a standard-bearer for the conservative establishment, came in first with nearly 16 percent of the vote.Ms. Torres and Mr. Arévalo were the top two finishers and will compete in a runoff on Aug. 20, despite claiming such a low percentage of the vote, because many Guatemalans left their ballots blank or nullified them.In fact, the 24 percent of the ballots that were blank or nullified were far higher than either candidate’s vote total. In addition, nearly 40 percent of voters did not take part in Sunday’s elections.Mr. Arévalo’s surprise showing and the lack of voter participation show a high level of disenchantment with Guatemala’s political system, election analysts said. The government has come under scrutiny over increasingly authoritarian tactics that have targeted independent news media and forced into exile dozens of judges and prosecutors focused on fighting corruption.“We are seeing how the population expresses its fatigue with a system, with a form of politics and government,” said Edie Cux, the director of Citizen Action, a nonprofit that was part of an alliance of groups that oversaw the electoral process. “The population is demanding reforms.”Ms. Torres came in first, with nearly 16 percent of the vote. Daniele Volpe for The New York TimesTwo establishment candidates who were viewed as top contenders — Edmond Mulet, a former diplomat; and Zury Ríos, a daughter of a former dictator convicted of genocide — finished in fifth and sixth place.Before Sunday’s vote, the nation’s electoral authority had disqualified at least four candidates from running, including Carlos Pineda, a mercurial front-runner who had unsettled the political establishment, and Thelma Cabrera, an organizer trying to unify Guatemala’s long-marginalized Indigenous voters.The campaign was dominated by a handful of recurring themes, including an increase in violent crime and economic challenges in a country with some of the highest rates of poverty and inequality in Latin America.Ms. Torres, who was the runner-up in the two most recent presidential elections, has pledged to address the violence by emulating a strategy used in neighboring El Salvador with the goal of cracking down on gangs.Still, it was Mr. Arévalo, often called Tío Bernie (Uncle Bernie) and a son of a president fondly remembered by many Guatemalans for creating the country’s social security system in the 1940s, who seemingly came out of nowhere to garner enough support to advance. The leadership of his party, called Semilla, or Seed, is comprised largely of urban professionals, such as university professors, engineers and owners of small businesses.Loren Giordano, 33, a graphic designer and an entrepreneur in Guatemala City, said she voted for Mr. Arévalo because his party promotes measures that she supports, including proposed legislation to increase spending on the training of cancer specialists, equipment and medicines. But the measure failed to pass.Still, Ms. Giordano does not have faith that Mr. Arévalo’s showing on Sunday will yield tangible improvements, even if he wins the presidency.“I support Semilla and I think they do want to make a change, but I don’t think the system will allow it,” she said. “It seems utopian to think that we will have a candidate who is not involved in corruption and narcopolitics.”Styling himself as a progressive social democrat, Mr. Arévalo drew attention in his campaign to the legacy of his father, who was also known for promoting freedom of speech and of the press and for encouraging organized labor to play a political role in the country.Mr. Arévalo was born in Montevideo, Uruguay, where his family lived while his father was in exile, after his successor as president was overthrown in a coup in 1954. He grew up in parts of South America until age 15 when the family returned to Guatemala.Mr. Arévalo, despite his unexpected performance, faces an uphill battle against Ms. Torres in the coming weeks. She has broad name recognition and is building on her time as first lady, when she was the face of popular antipoverty programs, including food assistance and cash transfers for poor families.Ms. Torres can also draw on the support of an establishment unlikely to upend the status quo, which is represented by President Alejandro Giammattei, who was barred by law from seeking re-election to a second term. Some other countries in the region, most notably Mexico, have similar laws.During Mr. Giammattei’s tenure, Guatemala has shifted from being a regional model for its anti-corruption efforts to a country that, like several of its neighbors, has undermined democratic norms.But Mr. Arévalo has also skillfully mounted an insurgent campaign, mixing the deployment of memes with serious positioning on issues like improving public health services. He has repeatedly said he would recruit prosecutors and judges who had been forced to leave Guatemala as advisers to aid him on tackling corruption.Some prominent establishment figures questioned Mr. Arévalo’s showing, arguing that it had less to do with his appeal than other factors.“Polls are not credible,” Ricardo Mendez Ruiz, the president of the Foundation Against Terrorism, a far-right organization that has sought to discredit anticorruption judges and prosecutors, wrote on Twitter. “The result is the responsibility of those who encouraged nullified votes. Arévalo has to thank them more than his voters.”Still, in a country where the winning electoral formula often includes deep-pocketed campaigns, occupying significant broadcast time on national television channels and the blessings of economic elites, Mr. Arévalo had “none of those,” said Marielos Chang, a political scientist at the Universidad del Valle in Guatemala City.“No one would have believed it when the presidential campaign began three months ago that Bernardo Arévalo would have enough votes to advance,” she said. More