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      For Anti-Trump Republicans, It All Comes Down to New Hampshire

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      The old guard of the Republican Party has rallied around Nikki Haley ahead of New Hampshire’s primary, in a long-shot bid to stop the former president’s march to the nomination.The first-in-the-nation primary could be the last stand for the anti-Trump Republican.Since 2016, a shrinking band of Republican strategists, retired lawmakers and donors has tried to oust Donald J. Trump from his commanding position in the party. And again and again, through one Capitol riot, two impeachments, three presidential elections and four criminal indictments, they have failed to gain traction with its voters.Now, after years of legal, cultural and political crises that upended American norms and expectations, what could be the final battle of the anti-Trump Republicans won’t be waged in Congress or the courts, but in the packed ski lodges and snowy town halls of a state of 1.4 million residents.Ahead of New Hampshire’s primary on Tuesday, the old guard of the G.O.P. has rallied around Nikki Haley, viewing her bid as its last, best chance to finally pry the former president from atop its party. Anything but a very close finish for her in the state, where moderate, independent voters make up 40 percent of the electorate, would send Mr. Trump on an all-but-unstoppable march to the nomination. The Trump opposition is outnumbered and underemployed. The former president’s polarizing style and hard-nosed tactics have pushed many Republicans who oppose him into early retirement and humiliating defeats, or out of the party completely. Yet, their long-running war against him has helped to frame the nominating contest around a central, and deeply tribal, litmus test: loyalty to Mr. Trump.We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      New Haley Ad to Play Up Her Foreign Policy Expertise, and Subtly Hit Trump

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      A 3-minute commercial set to run on Monday features a mother whose son died just after his release from North Korea. It may remind voters of Donald Trump’s friendliness toward the country’s dictator.Nikki Haley’s closing argument to New Hampshire primary voters will include a three-minute ad featuring the emotional story of the mother of a college student who died shortly after North Korea released him from captivity in 2017, and whose cause Ms. Haley championed as United Nations ambassador.The ad, which the Haley campaign said would run across the state on Monday, is narrated by Cynthia Warmbier, the mother of Otto Warmbier, a University of Virginia honors student from Cincinnati who was imprisoned in North Korea after visiting the country on an organized tour.“He was taken hostage, tortured and murdered by the government of North Korea,” Ms. Warmbier, who spoke at Ms. Haley’s campaign kickoff event last year, is shown telling the crowd there. “When we were begging the Obama administration for help, they told us to be quiet and be patient. Nikki told us the opposite. She told me it’s OK to be afraid, like I am now, but I had to push through the fear.”Ms. Warmbier describes Ms. Haley as a fighter on the world stage and a leader with strength and compassion.The ad appears geared toward attracting, among other voters, the suburban women who have left the Republican Party in recent years and are a key constituency in New Hampshire and beyond.In portraying North Korea as evil and responsible for the young man’s death, the ad may also remind voters of former President Donald J. Trump’s frequent boasts about his friendly relationship with Kim Jong-un, the North Korean leader.Ms. Haley has portrayed Mr. Trump as a destabilizing force in international relations who cozied up to dictators and terrorists.Ms. Warmbier and her son’s story played a recurring bit part in the Trump administration.During Mr. Trump’s 2018 State of the Union address, Ms. Warmbier and her husband, Fred, stood and wept as Mr. Trump described the “menace” of North Korea and paid tribute to Otto.It was later reported that North Korea had billed the United States $2 million for Otto’s medical treatment before releasing him, though Mr. Trump denied paying the country anything.The Warmbiers later released a blistering statement after Mr. Trump met with the North Korean leader and said he believed Mr. Kim’s claim that he did not know what happened to Mr. Warmbier while he was in captivity.“Some really bad things happened to Otto — some really, really bad things. But he tells me that he didn’t know about it, and I will take him at his word,” Mr. Trump said.But Ms. Haley said otherwise: “Americans know the cruelty that was placed on Otto Warmbier by the North Korean regime,” she wrote on social media. More

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      Trump Confuses Haley and Pelosi, Accusing Rival of Jan. 6 Lapse

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      Former President Donald J. Trump on Friday appeared to confuse Nikki Haley for Nancy Pelosi during a speech in New Hampshire, accusing Ms. Haley of failing to provide adequate security during the Jan. 6, 2021, attack at the Capitol and connecting her to the House committee that investigated it.Ms. Haley, the former governor of South Carolina and a former ambassador to the United Nations, has never served in Congress and was working in the private sector during the Capitol riot.On Friday night, Mr. Trump was in the middle of mocking Ms. Haley for the size of the crowds at her events, and criticizing the news media, when he pivoted to how he gave a speech in Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, that preceded the Capitol attack.“You know, when she comes here she gets like nine people, and the press never reports the crowds,” Mr. Trump said of Ms. Haley, whose crowds have lately been, at the very least, in double digits.Then, he changed subjects. “You know, by the way, they never report the crowd on Jan. 6,” he said. “You know, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley, Nikki Haley.”Mr. Trump then repeated his frequent claim that the bipartisan House committee that investigated the Jan. 6 attack — including Mr. Trump’s actions that day — “destroyed all of the information, all of the evidence.”Then, he claimed that Ms. Haley was in charge of security that day, and that she and others had turned down his offer to send troops to the Capitol.“Nikki Haley was in charge of security,” he said. (She was not.) “We offered her 10,000 people, soldiers, National Guards, whatever they want. They turned it down. They don’t want to talk about that.”Mr. Trump, 77, often attacks President Biden, 81, over his age and suggests that Mr. Biden is mentally unfit for office. “He can’t put two sentences together,” Mr. Trump said on Friday. “Can’t put two sentences together. He needs a teleprompter.”A spokesman for the Trump campaign did not immediately respond to a request for comment.Mr. Trump has frequently tried to lay blame for the Jan. 6 riot with Nancy Pelosi and House Democrats. There is no evidence, however, that Mr. Trump ever offered to have troops deployed to the Capitol, or that Ms. Pelosi, then the speaker of the House, rejected him.At 3:52 p.m. on Jan. 6, 2021, Ms. Haley reposted photos of besieged officials inside the Capitol, writing on Twitter, “An embarrassment in the eyes of the world and total sadness for our country. Wake up America.” More

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      Disdaining Haley, Trump Says She ‘Probably’ Won’t Be His Running Mate

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      Former President Donald J. Trump intensified his attacks against Nikki Haley on Friday, saying that she was not of presidential caliber and that, as a result, he was unlikely to choose her as his running mate.“She is not presidential timber,” Mr. Trump said at a campaign event in Concord, N.H. “Now, when I say that, that probably means that she’s not going to be chosen as the vice president.”Mr. Trump, known for off-the-cuff pronouncements that veer from his prepared remarks, continued by making it clear that his dismissal of Ms. Haley was not a fluke: “When you say certain things, it sort of takes them out of play, right?”Mr. Trump is well known for excoriating someone in one breath, and then reversing himself when it becomes politically or otherwise advantageous to do so. But his stance toward Ms. Haley, whom he appointed as his ambassador to the United Nations, has hardened as the New Hampshire primary approaches.Though Mr. Trump holds a wide lead over Ms. Haley in polls, she has narrowed the gap here in recent months. The Trump campaign is eyeing a decisive win in New Hampshire that could severely curtail her chances at winning the Republican nomination.On Friday, he again accused her of being supported primarily by Democrats, saying that “leftists” were spending millions on advertisements so they could “flood your airwaves with Nikki propaganda.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Trump Falsely Claims Democrats Can Vote in New Hampshire’s GOP Primary

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      WHAT WAS SAID“Nikki Haley is counting on Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary.”— Former President Donald J. Trump during a New Hampshire rally WednesdayThis is false.Mr. Trump has falsely and repeatedly suggested in recent days that one of his Republican rivals, Nikki Haley, is counting on Democrats to win the Republican presidential primary in New Hampshire next week. In fact, registered Democrats cannot vote in the state’s Republican primary — though voters who are not affiliated with a party can.During a rally on Wednesday in Portsmouth, N.H., Mr. Trump asked of the state’s Republican governor, Chris Sununu, who has endorsed Ms. Haley: “But why does he allow Democrats to vote in the Republican primary?”A day earlier, in Atkinson, N.H., Mr. Trump made similar claims. “As you know, Nikki Haley in particular is counting on the Democrats and liberals to infiltrate your Republican primary. You know that, that’s what’s happening. You have a group of people coming in that are not Republicans.”In New Hampshire, undeclared voters — often called simply independents — can choose to vote in either the Democratic or the Republican presidential primary, though not in both, as the New Hampshire secretary of state’s website explains. The voters become registered members of the party they select, though they can return to being an undeclared voter after the primary, if they want.But in order for registered Democrats to vote in the state’s Republican primary, they needed to have changed their party affiliation months ago: The deadline was Oct. 6.It is worth noting that these rules were in place in 2016, when Mr. Trump won New Hampshire’s primary during his first bid for president.Ms. Haley, who served as Mr. Trump’s ambassador to the United Nations, has been courting the state’s independent voters. On Friday, she pushed back on Mr. Trump’s claims and other attacks, accusing her former boss of pushing “too many lies.” More

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      Can Nikki Haley Beat Trump? A Look at the ‘Electability’ Question

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      “Don’t you want someone who can win?” she asks in a new ad.A long time ago, in a Republican Party far, far away, a seasoned former governor suggested a theory for winning the 2016 election.The nominee must be willing to “lose the primary to win the general,” Jeb Bush advised, alluding to the tension between the demands of primary voters and the broader electorate. His adage didn’t hold up in that campaign: Bush did indeed lose the primary in 2016 to Donald Trump, badly, but then Trump rode a nativist, populist and grievance-laced message all the way to the White House.Eight years later, Trump has only strengthened his grip on the Republican base, despite, or because of, his litany of legal troubles. His 30-point win in the Iowa caucuses this week signaled how fully he has remade the party in his image.But to a dwindling number of Republicans willing to criticize Trump out loud, the tension Bush described rings more true than ever: Even as Trump has inspired extraordinary loyalty among the Republican base, the party lost the House, Senate and White House during his time in office.In the final days before the New Hampshire primary on Tuesday, it’s an argument Nikki Haley and her supporters are explicitly making in her uphill bid for the nomination.“Don’t you want someone who can win?” asks a new video from the Haley team titled “Haley wins, Trump loses.”We are having trouble retrieving the article content.Please enable JavaScript in your browser settings.Thank you for your patience while we verify access. If you are in Reader mode please exit and log into your Times account, or subscribe for all of The Times.Thank you for your patience while we verify access.Already a subscriber?  More

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      Republicans Predict Turnout in New Hampshire’s Primary Could Set a Record

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      Republicans are predicting that Tuesday’s vote in New Hampshire could break primary turnout records in the state, as former President Donald J. Trump seeks another strong showing against his rivals, Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis.The current Republican primary record of about 285,000 votes was set in 2016, when Mr. Trump defeated a crowded G.O.P. field and set the tone for his eventual clinching of the party’s nomination. It would also eclipse the total from the Democratic primary in 2020, when about 297,000 votes were cast.The potential surge would represent a stark contrast from the meager turnout last week in Iowa’s Republican caucuses, which was the lowest in more than a decade as people contended with subzero temperatures.“We’re expecting a record or a near record,” Chris Ager, the chairman of the New Hampshire Republican Party, said in an interview on Friday.Mr. Ager suggested that as many as 300,000 people could participate in the primary, the nation’s first, which is also open to independent voters. That key voter bloc accounts for about 39 percent of New Hampshire’s roughly 900,000 voters, according the Secretary of State — the remaining electorate is split between Republicans and Democrats.Some Republicans set even higher expectations for turnout on Tuesday, including Americans for Prosperity Action, a political network founded by the billionaire industrialist brothers Charles and David Koch. The group, which is supporting Ms. Haley, said that its data partner was predicting that turnout could approach 330,000 voters.“The one thing that distinguishes New Hampshire from other states: It’s just the breadth of participation in the primary,” Greg Moore, a regional director for Americans for Prosperity Action, said at a news conference on Friday.David M. Scanlan, New Hampshire’s secretary of state and a Republican who oversees elections, on Friday predicted that 322,000 people would turn out for the G.O.P. primary.Gov. Chris Sununu of New Hampshire, a Republican who has also endorsed Ms. Haley, took a swipe at Iowa’s low turnout during an event for Ms. Haley on Tuesday night in Bretton Woods, N.H., where more than 100 people showed up in a snowstorm.“Iowa didn’t do a very good job with it,” he said. “Voter turnout was very, very low in Iowa. But here in New Hampshire we understand what this is all about, and we understand the rest of the country is watching and praying that we get this one right.” More

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      Why Is There No Effective Anti-Trump Constituency?

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      Michelle Cottle, Ross Douthat, Carlos Lozada and Listen to and follow ‘Matter of Opinion’Apple Podcasts | Spotify | Amazon MusicThis week on “Matter of Opinion,” the hosts take apart why Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis can’t seem to form competitive coalitions against Donald Trump, and whether Haley, DeSantis, the Supreme Court “or God himself” can keep the former president from becoming the Republican nominee.Plus, Michelle Cottle reveals her Plan B if her political reporting career doesn’t work out.(A full transcript of the episode will be available midday on the Times website.)Illustration by The New York Times; Photograph by Kevin Dietsch/Getty ImagesMentioned in this episode:Suffolk University-Boston Globe poll of likely New Hampshire Republican primary votersHot dog car sketch on “I Think You Should Leave”Thoughts? Email us at matterofopinion@nytimes.com.Follow our hosts on X: Michelle Cottle (@mcottle), Ross Douthat (@DouthatNYT) and Carlos Lozada (@CarlosNYT).“Matter of Opinion” is produced by Derek Arthur, Phoebe Lett and Sophia Alvarez Boyd. It is edited by Alison Bruzek and Jordana Hochman. Mixing by Carole Sabouraud. Original music by Sonia Herrero, Isaac Jones, Pat McCusker, Carole Sabouraud and Efim Shapiro. Our fact-checking team is Michelle Harris, Mary Marge Locker and Kate Sinclair. Audience strategy by Shannon Busta and Kristina Samulewski. Our executive producer is Annie-Rose Strasser. More